Vyrnwy-Jones, P; Thornton, R
Army Air Corps accident and fatality rates have now reached levels which compare favourably with data from other civilian and military sources. This improvement is the result of enhanced helicopter design and parallel progress in aircrew training. The introduction of new generations of turbine powered rotor craft has largely eliminated mechanical failure as the cause of accident. As a result 75% of Army Air Corps accidents are due to pilot error. This contribution is likely to increase in the future as the pilot's task is made more difficult by the incumberance of personal equipment. Methods whereby occupant protection and aircraft crashworthiness can be improved are reviewed and it is concluded that it would make sound economic sense to implement some of these well proven design features. PMID:6527344
As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the
The thyroid is a hormone secreting gland located superficially in the neck anterior to the trachea and below the thyroid cartilage. The normal adult gland weighs 15-20 g. Thyroid needs iodine to produce hormones that regulate body's energy and metabolism. It absorbs available iodine from the bloodstream. It cannot distinguish between stable iodine and radioactive iodine. In the event of nuclear accident huge amount of radioactive iodine (Iodine-131) will be released in the atmosphere. This will contaminate soil, plants, vegetables, water bodies etc. People residing in the vicinity will get radioactive iodine by inhalation and consuming contaminated food, water and milk. This radioactive iodine will saturate the thyroid gland. In neonates, infants and young children the thyroid gland is one of the most radiosensitive parts of the body. When thyroid cells absorb too much radioactive iodine, it can cause thyroid cancer over several years after the exposure. Neonates, infants and young children are at highest risk of developing thyroid cancer at a later stage in life. Incidence of thyroid cancer goes up in the native population after the nuclear reactor accident. Most of the thyroid cancers are papillary carcinomas and usually amenable to treatment with 10 year survival rate. It is believed that post nuclear accident carcinomas are more aggressive as compared to the usual papillary ca. Thyroid gland is at greatest risk from radioactive iodine and potassium iodide can protect the gland, if given as per the recommended dose schedule. The Chernobyl reactor accident and events around that time have proven beyond doubt that potassium iodide protects the gland. Thus, its proper use in rescue workers and survivors could effectively protect thyroid gland and prevent thyroid cancer. (author)
According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident
Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.
Full Text Available Introduction. Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Material and methods. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. Results. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Discussion. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time, but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Conclusion. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.
Lousdal, Mette L; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Møller, Bjørn;
survival time often is. The empirical relationship between mean and median survival time for cancer patients is not known. AIM: To derive the empirical associations between mean and median survival time across cancer types and to validate this empirical prediction approach and compare it with the standard...... approach of fitting a Weibull distribution. METHODS: We included all patients in Norway diagnosed from 1960 to 1999 with one of the 13 most common solid tumor cancers until emigration, death, or 31 December 2011, whichever came first. Observed median, restricted mean, and mean survival times were obtained...... in subcohorts defined by patients' sex, age, cancer type, and time period of diagnosis, which had nearly complete follow-up. Based on theoretical considerations, we fitted a linear relationship between observed means and medians on the log scale. For validation, we estimated mean survival from medians...
There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method
During an accident, transitions between plant states can occur due to operator intervention and the failure of systems while running. The latter cause of transition is much less likely than the first, which includes errors of commission and omission as well as recovery of lost functions. A methodology has been developed to model these transitions in the time domain. As an example, it is applied to the analysis of Three-Mile-Island-type accidents. Statistical evidence is collected and used in assessing the frequency of stuck-open power-operated relief valves at Babcock and Wilcox plants as well as the frequency of misdiagnosis. Statistical data are also used in modeling the timing of operator actions during the accident, i.e., turning off and on the high-pressure injection system and closing the block valves
The RADTRAN 4 computer code, which calculates estimates of accident dose-risk corresponding to specified transportation scenarios, ascribes doses to potentially exposed members of the public. These persons are modeled as not being evacuated from the affected area for 24 hours following a release of radioactive material. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that this value may be unnecessarily conservative; consequently risk estimates are unnecessarily high. An initial survey of recent trucking accidents, reported in newspapers and other periodicals (1988 through 1994), that involved evacuation of the general population in the affected areas was undertaken to establish the actual time required for such evacuations. Accidents involving hazardous materials other than those which are radioactive (e.g., gasoline, insecticides, other chemicals) but also requiring evacuations of nearby residents were included in the survey. However, the resultant set of sufficiently documented trucking incidents yielded rather sparse data . When the probability density distribution of the truck accident data was compared with that resulting from addition of four other (rail and fixed site) incidents, there was no statistically significant difference between them. Therefore, in order to improve the statistical significance of the data set, i.e., maximize the number of pertinent samples, a search for evacuations resulting from all types of accidents was performed. This resulted in many more references; a set of 48 incidents which could be adequately verified was compiled and merged with the original two data sets for a total of 66 evacuation accounts
Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.
This paper documents the analytical methodology used to evaluate severe accident sequences. The relevant thermal-mechanical phenomena and the mathematical approach used in calculating the timing of the accident progression are described. An example of a specific accident scenario is provided in order to illustrate the application of the severe accident progression methodology. The postulated sever accidents analyzed mainly differ in the timing to reach and progress through each defined 'core damage state'. (author)
Scheike, Thomas H.
Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...
Tsujitani, Masaaki; Sakon, Masato
Cox's proportional hazards model has been widely used for the analysis of treatment and prognostic effects with censored survival data. In this paper, we propose a neural network model based on bootstrapping to estimate the survival function and predict the short-term survival at any time during the course of the disease. The bootstrapping for the neural network is introduced when selecting the optimum number of hidden units and testing the goodness-of-fit. The proposed methods are illustrated using data from a long-term study of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). PMID:19179250
Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.
Full Text Available This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents.
Konishi, Kazuyuki; Yonai, Miharu; Kaneyama, Kanako; Ito, Satoshi; Matsuda, Hideo; Yoshioka, Hajime; Nagai, Takashi; Imai, Kei
The reproductive ability, milk-producing capacity, survival time and relationships of these parameters with telomere length were investigated in 4 groups of cows produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT). Each group was produced using the same donor cells (6 Holstein (1H), 3 Holstein (2H), 4 Jersey (1J) and 5 Japanese Black (1B) cows). As controls, 47 Holstein cows produced by artificial insemination were used. The SCNT cows were artificially inseminated, and multiple deliveries were performed after successive rounds of breeding and conception. No correlation was observed between the telomere length and survival time in the SCNT cows. Causes of death of SCNT cows included accidents, accident-associated infections, inappropriate management, acute mastitis and hypocalcemia. The lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was superior to those of the controls and cell donor cows. All SCNT beef cows with a relatively light burden of lactation remained alive and showed significantly prolonged survival time compared with the cows in the SCNT dairy breeds. These results suggest that the lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was favorable, and their survival time was more strongly influenced by environmental burdens, such as pregnancy, delivery, lactation and feeding management, than by the telomere length. PMID:21666348
Boulieri, A; Liverani, S; Hoogh, K. de; Blangiardo, M.
The paper investigates the dependences between levels of severity of road traffic accidents, accounting at the same time for spatial and temporal correlations. The study analyses road traffic accidents data at ward level in England over the period 2005–2013. We include in our model multivariate spatially structured and unstructured effects to capture the dependences between severities, within a Bayesian hierarchical formulation. We also include a temporal component to capture the time effects...
Hyojoon Jeong; Misun Park; Haesun Jeong; Wontae Hwang; Eunhan Kim; Moonhee Han
This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radio...
Full Text Available Abstract Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment.
Tipton, M.J.; Franks, C. [Surrey Univ., Guildford (United Kingdom); Meneilly, G.S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Medicine; Mekjavic, I.B. [Simon Fraser University, Vancouver (Canada). Dept. of Kinesiology
Mathematical models of the human thermoregulatory system have been used to make predictions of the likely survival of divers in a ``lost bell`` who can be exposed to very low ambient temperatures. The circumstances considered are not the most extreme but those where, partly by shivering, the individual can re-enter thermal balance. The ability accurately to predict the level and duration of metabolic heat production is critical for the estimation of survival time under these conditions. Limitations on the accuracy of current models arise from the lack of precision in modelling the intensity and duration of the metabolic (shivering) response. A different basis for predicting shivering endurance using the time to hypogylcaemia (blood glucose level less than 2.5 mmol/1) is proposed. This leads to predicted survival times ranging from 10 to over 24 hours for those individuals able to stabilise deep body temperature. This seems to be more consistent with the limited experimental data which exists than the 8-9 hours predicted by other models. In order to help maintain blood sugar levels, and hence metabolic heat production, it is recommended that emergency rations within bells should provide 500g of carbohydrate a day. (59 figures; 221 references). (UK)
桑修文; 赵宏伟; 等
Objective To explore sutitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals to decrease adverse effect caused by delayed therapy.Methods:In recent 10 years we have treated 154 cases of maxillofacial trauma by traffic accidents and their data were analyzed.Results:Early surgical therapy could be done in maxillofacial soft tissue trauma.The therapy of returning occlusion relation or temporary fixing was performed in bone fracture before porosis.Conclusions:For maxilloficial trauman and trauman of other parts caused by traffic accidents.early treatment should be done in order to decrease dysfunction and deformity caused by maxillofacial trauma.
Fekri M. Abduljalil
Full Text Available In this paper, a novel real-time video and data cap ture of vehicle accident is proposed in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS. The proposed scheme so lves the problem of huge storage needed for recording vehicle accident in the smart vehicle and in the remote ITS server. It works efficiently wit h small amount of storage size and guarantee saving acciden t video in secondary storage. It enables user to capture real-time video and data of running vehicle . It enables user to get vehicle accident video and data anytime anywhere. The scheme is implemented using t estbed and its performance is evaluated. The result s show that the proposed scheme guarantees record the vehicle accident in the ITS server. The proposed scheme has better results in comparison with full t ime video recording scheme.
Hundahl Scott A
Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.
Heidar Teymuri, Ghulam; Bahmani, Rahman; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Samavati, Mehdi
Background: Car accidents are currently a social issue globally because they result in the deaths of many people. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in suburban Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The sample population of this cross-sectional study was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in suburban Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered by the Tehran Emergency Section. In the present study, Minit...
Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226Ra + 228Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment
A mobile real-time data monitoring system is designed for nuclear accident emergency, accomplished real-time data acquisition and transmission. For its special application, the system realized the real-time data acquisition of multi-serial device, GPS orientation and route record of the emergency monitoring vehicle, wireless data communications based on CDMA 1X network, database, etc. It is confirmed, by many times practical test, that such system satisfies the requirements of nuclear emergency monitoring. (authors)
The Chernobyl accident has demonstrated the urgent need for computer programs for real-time assessment of potential radiological consequences of major reactor accidents and for timely recommendations of useful and cost-efficient counter measures. During the past decade the dynamic radioecological program ECOSYS has been developed for nuclear accident consequence assessment with high resolution in space, time and exposure pathways. The Chernobyl reactor accident leading to relatively high contamination of Southern Germany provided excellent conditions for realistic validation studies of concept, sub-models and parameters of ECOSYS. To this purpose more than 7000 low level and in-situ gamma spectroscopy measurements were performed to study experimentally the behaviour of radionuclides in foodchains and in the urban environment and to compare the results to theoretical predictions of ECOSYS. The results show good agreement in the contamination levels of important food stuffs and in external exposure dose rates from a given surface contamination. Improvements were necessary in the assumptions regarding the food consumption habits which changed considerably - and in the functions describing the weathering off from urban and plant surfaces. The results of this validation study and the concept of the improved computerised model, which has subsequently been converted into a real-time code, are discussed in detail
Montero, M; Montero, Miquel; Masoliver, Jaume
An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood t...
A large number of studies have been made to assess the relationship between risk factors and accident occurrence. A risk factor is any factor that makes an accident more likely to occur. Very many risk factors have been identified, for example, being under the influence of alcohol while driving, driving on slippery roads, entering complex junctions, or driving in hours of darkness. Few studies have been made to determine whether the associations between risk factors and accident occurrence remain stable over time. This paper presents examples of studies that have replicated estimates of risk. All these studies were made within a given country, using the same method, to ensure that estimates of risk are comparable. The risk factors included in the paper are: daylight, horizontal curves, junctions, road surface conditions, precipitation, drinking and driving and driver age. For all these risk factors, their association with accidents has changed over time, mostly becoming weaker. A protective factor, snow depth, is also included. Its protective effect has become smaller over time. Possible reasons for the weakening influence of risk factors are discussed. PMID:26974026
Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.
An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.
The analysis of beyond design basis accidents (BDBA) is an essential component of the safety concept of nuclear power plants (NPP). Goal of the analysis is to achieve a set of actions aimed to prevent the escalation into a severe accident, to mitigate consequences of a severe accident, and to achieve a long term controllable state of the NPP. This paper presents an analytical procedure to optimize the timing of operator interventions. The procedure is demonstrated based on four sets of parameters, first, parameters which define the operator actions are chosen. Second, parameters which define the system availability are chosen. Third, parameters which define in a continuous way the status of the plant are chosen. Finally, one looks for a functional dependency of the accident management (AM)-parameters and the parameters describing the plant status. Once a function could be found, this function is 'optimized' in the sense that the AM-parameters are varied to find a optimal overall condition for the plant. In the first part, the paper presents the analytical procedure in a general way, in the second part, an initiating event is chosen. The procedure is applied to a station black out (SBO) transient, and as operator action secondary side bleed and feed, followed by primary side bleed and feed, is foreseen. As result, the optimal timing to initiate both actions is achieved
Heydari Seyed Taghi
Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran
Highlights: • Possible nuclear accident is simulated for the atmospheric contaminations. • The simulations results give the relative importance of the fallouts. • The cloud computing of IT is performed successfully. • One can prepare for the possible damages of such a NPP accident. • Some other variables can be considered in the modeling. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated by the system dynamics (SD) method. The non-linear complex algorithm could give the information about the hazardous material behavior in the case of nuclear accident. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The event sequence shows the scenario from earthquake to dispersion of the radionuclides. Then, the dispersion reaches two cities in Korea. The importance of the radioactive dispersion is related to the fast and reliable data processing, which could be accomplished by cloud computing concept. The values of multiplications for the wind, plume concentrations, and cloud computing factor are obtained. The highest value is 94.13 in the 206th day for Seoul. In Pusan, the highest value is 15.48 in the 219th day. The source is obtained as dispersion of radionuclide multiplied by 100. The real time safety assessment is accomplished by mobile phone
In the accident analysis of China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR), uncontrolled withdrawal of regulating rod without scram is a severe accident. When it happens, a large positive reactivity will be introduced and the relative space distribution of neutron flux will change significantly. Thus the analytical result of the accident by point kinetics in the safety analysis of CEFR is inaccurate. In this paper, focused on neutronics behavior, the accident is re-evaluated with NAS-K code. The NAS-K code is a CEFR-self-developed three-dimensional space-time-dependent neutron kinetics code for sodium cooled fast reactors, including thermal feedback and various kinds of reactivity feedback effects. The calculation results indicate that the maximum temperatures of fuel and cladding do not exceed the limits specified by acceptance criteria corresponding to design basis accident for CEFR, which means the accident will not cause damage to CEFR core. (author)
Reinberg, Alain; Smolensky, Michael H; Riedel, Marc; Touitou, Yvan; Le Floc'h, Nadine; Clarisse, René; Marlot, Michel; Berrez, Stéphane; Pelisse, Didier; Mauvieux, Benoît
Simon Folkard in 1997 introduced the phrase black time to draw attention to the fact that the risk of driving accidents (DA) is greater during the night than day in usually diurnally active persons. The 24 h temporal pattern in DA entails circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleep propensity, cognitive and physical performance, and behavior that are controlled, at least in part, by endogenous clocks. This opinion paper extends the concept of black time to reports of excess nighttime accidents and injuries of workers and nocturnal occurrence of certain man-caused catastrophes. We explore the chronobiology of work-related black time accidents and injuries taking into account laboratory and field investigations describing, respectively, circadian rhythms in cognitive performance and errors and mistakes by employees in the conduct of routine occupational tasks. Additionally, we present results of studies pertaining to 24 h patterns of both the number and relative risk (number of events per h/number of workers exposed per h) of work-related accidents (WRA) and injuries (WRI) as well as indices of performance and alertness of a self-selected homogenous survivor cohort of French firefighters (FFs) to explore two possible explanations of black time, namely, 24 h variation in sleep propensity/drossiness characterized by a nocturnal peak and circadian rhythms in cognitive performance characterized by a nocturnal trough. We propose the 24 h pattern of WRA and WRI, particularly of FFs and other highly skilled self-selected cohorts, is more strongly linked to circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleepiness than cognitive performance. Other possible explanations--suppressed expression of circadian rhythms and/or unmasking of ultradian periodicities in cognitive performance in specific circumstances, e.g., highly stressful work, competitive, or life-threatening settings, are also discussed. PMID:26181466
Heuvers Marlies E
Full Text Available Abstract Background During the past decades, numerous efforts have been made to decrease the death rate among lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, the improvement in long-term survival has been limited and lung cancer is still a devastating disease. Discussion With this article we would like to point out that survival of lung cancer could be strongly improved by controlling two pivotal prognostic factors: stage and treatment. This is corresponding with recent reports that show a decrease in lung cancer mortality by screening programs. In addition, modulation of the patient’s immune system by immunotherapy either as monotherapy or combined with conventional cancer treatments offers the prospect of tailoring treatments much more precisely and has also been shown to lead to a better response to treatment and overall survival of non-small cell lung cancer patients. Summary Since only small improvements in survival can be expected in advanced disease with the use of conventional therapies, more research should be focused on lung cancer screening programs and patient tailored immunotherapy with or without conventional therapies. If these approaches are clinically combined in a standard multidisciplinary policy we might be able to advance the survival of patients with lung cancer.
Seyed Taghi Heydari; Amin Hoseinzadeh; Yaser Sarikhani; Arya Hedjazi; Mohammad Zarenezhad; Ghasem Moafian; Mohammad Reza Aghabeigi
Objective:To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Fars Province of Iran.Methods:This study was conducted in Fars Province,Iran from November 22,2009 to November 21,2011.Victims'information consisted of age,sex,death toll involving drivers or passengers of cars,motorcycles and pedestrians,and site of injury etc.Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day,season of the year,lighting condition including sunrise,sunset,daytime and nighttime.Results:Atotal of 3 642 deaths (78.3％ were males,and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1) were studied regarding their autopsy records.There was a steady increase in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59.The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13,95％ CI 1.85-2.44).The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer.Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59and midnight to 3:59,whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59.Conclusion:The high mortality rate ofRTAis a major public health problem in Fars Province.Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths.
After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production
Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E.
Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-ident...
Wang, Hong; Zhang, Chi; Shi, Tianwei; Wang, Fuwang; Ma, Shujun
This paper proposes a real-time electroencephalogram (EEG)-based detection method of the potential danger during fatigue driving. To determine driver fatigue in real time, wavelet entropy with a sliding window and pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) were used to process the EEG signals in the visual area (the main information input route). To detect the fatigue danger, the neural mechanism of driver fatigue was analyzed. The functional brain networks were employed to track the fatigue impact on processing capacity of brain. The results show the overall functional connectivity of the subjects is weakened after long time driving tasks. The regularity is summarized as the fatigue convergence phenomenon. Based on the fatigue convergence phenomenon, we combined both the input and global synchronizations of brain together to calculate the residual amount of the information processing capacity of brain to obtain the dangerous points in real time. Finally, the danger detection system of the driver fatigue based on the neural mechanism was validated using accident EEG. The time distributions of the output danger points of the system have a good agreement with those of the real accident points. PMID:25541095
As part of a Research and Development project jointly undertaken by Nuclenor S.A. and the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science of the University of Cantabria, at the beginning of 1995 a plant transient and accident simulator was released, based on the MAAP computer code, which is able to analyse emergency situations beyond the design basis. The use of this tool at Sta. Maria de Garona NPP has significantly improved the operators and support personnel training on Emergency Procedures. This simulator has an interactive graphic interface to control the simulation itself and the safeguard systems. It also allows the link with the SPDS. The simulator is designed in such a way that several users can interact simultaneously on the process. It currently consists of six monitors assigned both to control and to visualise systems. The instructor can provoke anomalies before and during the training exercises. The operators have several consoles (5) from which they can interact in real time to control operations and resolve the conflictive situations. It is important to note that the use of a common tool for training and safety analysis favors the collaboration of the plant and engineering personnel responsible for these two areas. An additional capacity already incorporated into the simulator is the possibility of visualising the real time plant data from the SCADA system. The same screens developed for the training simulator are used for this purpose and vice versa. This capacity can be achieved from any computer station at the network. The paper describes the following applications and benefits of the system: - The simulator is used for periodic retraining of Plant operators on abnormal and emergency operating procedures. Its use has facilitated the collaboration of the operator on the accident sequence analysis part of the PSA. Some human reliability aspects, especially those relating to operator response are better analysed with the help of the simulator
Zebende, G. F.; da Silva, P. A.; Machado Filho, A.
We study in this paper the cross-correlation between self-affine time series of real variables recorded simultaneously in cases of taxi accidents. For this purpose, we apply the DCCA method and show that the cross-correlation can be divided into three distinct groups, if we look for the detrended covariance function, i.e., long-range cross-correlations, short-range cross-correlations and no cross-correlations. Finally, it will be seen that the detrended covariance function is robust, if compared with other methods, in identifying these types of cross-correlations.
Nitin Thakre; Nitin Raut; Shyam Dubey; Abdulla Shaikh
Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of fatalities in the world. An important indicator of survival rates after an accident is the time between the accident and when emergency medical personnel are dispatched to the location. Eliminating the time between when an accident occurs and when first responders are dispatched to the location decreases mortality rates by 6%. We propose an Android based application that location of the vehicle through an positive detectio...
Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E
Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. PMID:26501480
Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.
The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…
Dean, Danielle O; Bauer, Daniel J; Shanahan, Michael J
Traditional survival analysis was developed to investigate the occurrence and timing of a single event, but researchers have recently begun to ask questions about the order and timing of multiple events. A multiple event process survival mixture model is developed here to analyze nonrepeatable events measured in discrete-time that may occur at the same point in time. Building on both traditional univariate survival analysis and univariate survival mixture analysis, the model approximates the underlying multivariate distribution of hazard functions via a discrete-point finite mixture in which the mixing components represent prototypical patterns of event occurrence. The model is applied in an empirical analysis concerning transitions to adulthood, where the events under study include parenthood, marriage, beginning full-time work, and obtaining a college degree. Promising opportunities, as well as possible limitations of the model and future directions for research, are discussed. PMID:24079930
Maille, Audrey; Schradin, Carsten
Studying the association between fitness and cognition in free-living animals is a fundamental step in the elucidation of the evolution of cognition. We assessed whether survival until the onset of the breeding season was related to reaction time or spatial memory in the African striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio, a rodent that has to survive summer drought before breeding. We tested a total of 90 individuals at the beginning of summer. Female survival was related to a faster response to predation stimuli. Male survival increased with greater spatial memory, possibly because it is important for males to remember the configuration of the environment during dispersal. This study revealed that individual variation in reaction time and spatial memory can be related to survival probability, which is important for understanding the selection pressures acting on basic cognitive traits. PMID:27484646
This slide presentation provides an update on the Columbia accident response presented in 2005 with additional information that was not available at that time. It will provide information on the following topics: (1) medical response and Search and Rescue, (2) medico-legal issues associated with the accident, (3) the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team Report published in 2008, and (4) future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training.
Ahmad Rodzi Mahmud
Full Text Available It has been a big concern for many people and government to reduce the amount of road accident specially in Malaysia since it could be a big threat to this country. Malaysian government has spent millions of money in order to reduce the number of accident occurrence through several modes of campaign. Unfortunately, from years to years the number keeps increasing. The lack of a comprehensive accident recording and analysis system in Malaysia can be effective in these kinds of problems. By making use of IRAS (Intelligent Road Accident System, the police would be control and manage whole accident events as a real-time monitoring system. This system exploits WiMAX and GPRS communications to connect to the server for transfer the specific data to the data center. This system can be used for a comprehensive intelligent GIS-based solution for accident analysis and management. The system is developed based on object and aspect oriented software design such as .NET technology.
Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.
In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.
Guiol, Herve; Schinazi, Rinaldo B
We consider a stochastic model for species evolution. A new species is born at rate lambda and a species dies at rate mu. A random number, sampled from a given distribution F, is associated with each new species at the time of birth. Every time there is a death event, the species that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We consider the (random) survival time of a species with a given fitness f. We show that the survival time distribution depends crucially on whether ff_c where f_c is a critical fitness that is computed explicitly.
This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)
Full Text Available Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time was analyzed. Results There was significant difference in ventilation function and diffusing capacity between in lung cancer group and control group. Vital capacity (VC, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC, peak expiratory flow (PEF, peak expiratory flow% (PEF%, maximal ventilatory volume (MVV were positively correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer (r=0.29, 0.28, 0.28, 0.27, 0.26, 0.28, P<0.05, residual volume/total lung capacity was negatively correlated with survival time (r=-0.31, P<0.05. Conclusion The lung function decreases in the patients with lung cancer. VC, FEV1, FVC, PEF, PEF%, MVV, residual volume/total lung capacity were correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. The pulmonary function indexs were important marker of prognosis in patients with lung cancer.
The reexamination argument on nuclear power has arisen after the Fukushima accident. When nuclear power generation has been stopped, it is forced however, to depend on thermal power generation. In that case, the two serious problems of a jump of fuel cost and of global warming issue, that is CO2 emission issue, will be faced. So, it is still required for nuclear power generation to take an important part as basic energy source in our country for years to come. In this paper, we will describe the outline of the severe accident such as a SBO (Station Blackout) accident which happened in Fukushima and also discuss the safety assessment for the plant action when a SBO accident occurred in the case of PWR power plant through the simulation experiments using a PWR power plant simulator. As a result, fuel and fuel cladding temperatures rose abruptly about 3 hours after the SBO accident occurrence for loss of nuclear cooling functions, and it was also shown that cladding tubes damages begin. Conversely, even if a SBO accident should have happened, when power supply restoration was possible within about 3 hours, it was shown that a nuclear reactor can be changed into a cold shutdown state. (author)
Sorenmo, K U; Shofer, F S; Goldschmidt, M H
The risk of developing mammary gland tumors in dogs is significantly decreased by ovariohysterectomy at an early age. However, previous studies have not found a benefit to ovariohysterectomy concurrent with tumor removal in dogs with established mammary gland tumors, suggesting that the progression of these tumors is independent of continued estrogen stimulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of spaying and of the timing of spaying on survival in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma. Signalment, spay status and spay age, tumor characteristics, treatment. survival, and cause of death of 137 dogs with mammary gland carcinoma were analyzed. The dogs were classified into 3 groups according to spay status and spay time: intact dogs, dogs spayed less than 2 years before tumor surgery (SPAY 1), and dogs spayed more than 2 years before their tumor surgery (SPAY 2). Dogs in the SPAY 1 group lived significantly longer than dogs in SPAY 2 and intact dogs (median survival of 755 days, versus 301 and 286 days, respectively, P = .02 and .03). After adjusting for differences between the spay groups with regard to age, histologic differentiation, and vascular invasion, SPAY 1 dogs survived 45% longer compared to dogs that were either intact or in the SPAY 2 group (RR = .55; 95% CI .32-.93; P = .03). This study reveals ovariohysterectomy to be an effective adjunct to tumor removal in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma and that the timing of ovariohysterectomy is important in influencing survival. PMID:10830539
The model: Several Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) in Oslo to provide decision makers and Government officials with real-time tool for simulating large accidental releases of radioactivity from nuclear power plants or other sources. SNAP is developed in the Lagrangian framework in which atmospheric transport of radioactive pollutants is simulated by emitting a large number of particles from the source. The main advantage of the Lagrangian approach is a possibility of precise parameterization of advection processes, especially close to the source. SNAP can be used to predict the transport and deposition of a radioactive cloud in e future (up to 48 hours, in the present version) or to analyze the behavior of the cloud in the past. It is also possible to run the model in the mixed mode (partly analysis and partly forecast). In the routine run we assume unit (1 g s-1) emission in each of three classes. This assumption is very convenient for the main user of the model output in case of emergency: Norwegian Radiation Protection Agency. Due to linearity of the model equations, user can test different emission scenarios as a post processing task by assigning different weights to concentration and deposition fields corresponding to each of three emission classes. SNAP is fully operational and can be run by the meteorologist on duty at any time. The output from SNAP has two forms: First on the maps of Europe, or selected parts of Europe, individual particles are shown during the simulation period. Second, immediately after the simulation, concentration/deposition fields can be shown every three hours of the simulation period as isoline maps for each emission class. In addition, concentration and deposition maps, as well as some meteorological data, are stored on a public accessible disk for further processing by the model users
Masyn, Katherine E.
In this article, the latent class analysis framework for modeling single event discrete-time survival data is extended to low-frequency recurrent event histories. A partial gap time model, parameterized as a restricted factor mixture model, is presented and illustrated using juvenile offending data. This model accommodates event-specific baseline hazard probabilities and covariate effects; event recurrences within a single time period; and accounts for within- and between-su...
The potential of mortality and seedling survival of three salt marshes species (Atriplex farinose, Aeleuropus brevifolius, and Juncus rigidus) as affected by timing of precipitation were measured. Three separate (14)-day experiments were conducted using (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5) days dry. The number of emerging seedlings growing from (100) seeds placed in sand media in small plastic pots were counted daily. A total of (50%) to (70%) of Juncus seeds emerged in the initial wet period, but over (50%) of the seedlings died in the following (5) days dry period, resulting in less than a (35%) survival rate. The Atriplex was slower to germinate and seedling survival rate resulted (40%)-(60%) in Aeluropus brevifolius. The (1) and (2) days wet sequences the maximum until the final rewet period. The information offers the possibility of incorporating the probabilistic aspects of timing precipitation and soil water relations into a description of the seedling environment. (author)
Following the identification of an off-normal condition at nuclear power plant, the plant operators have one over-riding responsibility: protection of the offsite population. In discharging this responsibility, the operators utilize a set of emergency operating procdedures. A. Immediately following the identification of the off-normal condition, the operators primary actions are focused on establishing a safe, stable shutdown condition for the reactor. B. The plant condition is categorized according to the perceived severity of the event based on a broad overview of the plant conditions, and the information is transmitted to appropriate governmental authorities. C. Estimations of potential environmental releases of radioactivity, based on design basis accident results, are performed and transmitted to the governmental authorities. The TRACE package was developed to provide the operators with the tools to make realistic predictions of the range of possible releases of radioactivity to the environment during all phases of an off-normal condition, including severe accident situations. The TRACE package provides a means to project, during the early stages of an accident, the potential range of possible fission product releases on a realistic and time-dependent basis. The TRACE package also provides a means to update previous evaluations of the potential range of radioactivity releases as plant conditions change or a new information (on accident sequence or plant parameters) becomes available. (orig./HSCH)
Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis
Jung, Hyunzee; Spjeldnes, Solveig; Yamatani, Hide
Incarcerated men, most of whom are recidivists, are disproportionately black. Much literature about prison ex-inmates reports on this disparity, yet little is known about racial disparity in recidivism rates among jail ex-inmates. This study examined recidivism rates and survival time (period from release date to rearrest) among male ex-inmates…
Miura, Yuichiro; Matsuda, Tadashi; Usuda, Haruo; Watanabe, Shimpei; Kitanishi, Ryuta; Saito, Masatoshi; Hanita, Takushi; Kobayashi, Yoshiyasu
An artificial placenta (AP) is an arterio-venous extracorporeal life support system that is connected to the fetal circulation via the umbilical vasculature. Previously, we published an article describing a pumpless AP system with a small priming volume. We subsequently developed a parallelized system, hypothesizing that the reduced circuit resistance conveyed by this modification would enable healthy fetal survival time to be prolonged. We conducted experiments using a premature lamb model to test this hypothesis. As a result, the fetal survival period was significantly prolonged (60.4 ± 3.8 vs. 18.2 ± 3.2 h, P Fetal physiological parameters remained stable until the conclusion of the experiments. In summary, parallelization of the AP system was associated with reduced circuit resistance and lactate levels and allowed preterm lamb fetuses to survive for a significantly longer period when compared with previous studies. PMID:26644374
Life table methods were applied to survival data on U.S. women radium dial workers in order to compare observed and expected deaths as a function of time after exposure to radium. The study population consisted of 1235 workers employed in the industry before 1930 for whom age and year of death, withdrawal or loss from the study were known. Expected deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for U.S. white females. The closing year for analysis was 1976, so observation times of 45 to 60 years were possible. For all causes, 529 deaths before age 85 were observed versus 461 expected, and the cumulative survival of the population was significantly less than expected at 10 and more years after first employment. Estimates were made of the net survival probabilities after elimination of risk due to the well-known radium-related malignancies, i.e. bone sarcomas and carcinomas of the paranasal sinuses and the mastoid air cells. There were 455 observed deaths from other causes versus 460 expected, and there was no significant difference between observed and expected cumulative net survival at one-year intervals from zero to 59 years after first employment. These findings indicate that only the known radium-related malignancies contributed significantly to life shortening of the exposed population as a whole, but the presence of other radium-related causes of death may yet be detectable by examination of specific risks as a function of dose. (author)
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the timing of management control systems (MCS) implementations, their drivers and effect on joint venture (JV) survival. Design/methodology/approach – This paper draws on case study data (archival data, interviews, and site visits) collected at three JVs in the automotive industry. Contingency theory is used to define Cartesian relationships. Findings – A description of the timing and reasons for MCS implementation in JVs is provided. Initial...
Zatsepin, Ivan; VERGER, Pierre; Robert-Gnansia, Elisabeth; Gagnière, Bertrand; Tirmarche, Margot; Khmel, Rostislav; Babicheva, Irina; Lazjuk, Gennady
International audience The Chernobyl accident (April 26, 1986) exposed a large part of the Belarus population to ionizing radiation. We analyzed the time trends of Down syndrome (DS) in Belarus to evaluate whether either brief exposure at high dose rates during the plume passage or continuous exposure at low doses and dose rates of the residents of contaminated areas had any detectable impact on DS prevalence at birth. DS data came from the Belarus National Registry of Congenital Malformat...
Jooste, Valérie; Dejardin, Olivier; Bouvier, Véronique; Arveux, Patrick; Maynadie, Marc; Launoy, Guy; Bouvier, Anne-Marie
Pancreatic survival is one of the worst in oncology. To what extent wait times affect outcomes in unknown No population-based study has previously explored patient and treatment delays among individuals with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to estimate patient and treatment delays in patients with pancreatic cancer and to measure their association with survival in a nonselected population. All patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer for the first time between 2009 and 2011 and registered in two French digestive cancer registries were included. Patient delay (time from onset of symptoms until the first consultation categorized into <1 or ≥1 month), and treatment delay (time between the first consultation and treatment categorized into less or more than 29 days, the median time) were collected. Overall delay was used to test associations between survival and the timeliness of care by combining patient delay and treatment delay. Patient delay was longer than 1 month in 46% of patients. A patient delay longer than one month was associated with the absence of jaundice (p < 0.001) and the presence of metastasis (p = 0.003). After adjusting for other covariates, such as symptoms and treatment, the presence of metastasis was negatively associated with treatment delay longer than 29 days (p = 0.025). After adjustment for other covariates, especially metastatic dissemination and the result of the resection, overall delay was not significantly associated with prognosis. We found little evidence to suggest that timely care was associated with the survival of patients. PMID:27130333
Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration
Lois A Gelfand
Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.
Ge, Hui; Jiang, Zhenghua; Huang, Qian; Muyun ZHU; Yang, Jie
Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and surv...
Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae
Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...
Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae
Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studi...
Amadasi, Alberto; Gentile, Guendalina; Rancati, Alessandra; Zoja, Riccardo
The ingestion of corrosive substances is a widely treated topic in clinical and forensic practice, as an accidental event or as a consequence of voluntary assumption to commit suicide. However, thorough macroscopic and microscopic surveys focused on the correlation between the ingestion of the substance and different survival times have never been performed. Are the ingestion and the metabolism of the substance within the human tissues still recognizable? How could it be related to death? The study concerns a retrospective analysis on ten cases (two accidental, eight suicides) of lethal ingestion of different types of liquid caustic substances, without instant death and survival times ranging from 12 h to 6 months. For each case, a full autopsy and histological examination of the internal organs were performed. The results showed that the early direct effect of the substances is exerted mainly on the gastrointestinal tract, but as survival time increased, the metabolism of the substance exerted its effects in different target organs. When the cause of death was not directly linkable to the ingestion of the substance (i.e., related to cardiac stress, electrolyte disorders, pneumonia) and macroscopic findings were nonspecific, histological analyses allowed for providing crucial elements towards a link between death and assumption of the substance. PMID:26384506
An investigation on the effectiveness of two radioprotectors (DMSO and cystein) separately and in combination to suppress radiation effect (survival time and testes weight) has been carries out. One hundred and forty four male rats 2 mounths 21 days old and of 142.549+/-3.588 grams body weight were divided into four groups and each group was injected intramusculary with 1.4 ml aquabides 0.4 ml DMSO, 120 mg cystein and DMSO+cystein (0.4+120 mg). Each group was divided into six subgroups and irradiated with gamma rays from a 60 Co gamma cell-220 machine with doses of 0.0; 0.5; 1.0; 2.0; 4.0; and 6.0 Gy, respectively. On days 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 post irradiation, the rats were killed for observations of the testes weight and the survival time. The results showed that with increasing dose of irradiation, testes weight decreased, and 6 Gy caused a descrease up to 40% on day 30 post irradiation. The administration of radioprotectors could lessen the decrease of testes weight in which combined radioprotectors was most effective. Also, combines radioprotectors were most effective in prolonging the survival time of rats irradiated with dose up to 6 Gy. (authors), 6 refs.; 2 tabs.; 1 fig
Hui Liu; Zhun Wang
AIM: To investigate the effects of isolation stress on mouse with liver cancer and possible associated mechanisms.METHODS: Transplantable murine hepatoma22 (H22) model was used to evaluate the effects of social isolation stress on murine liver cancer. Mice were immunized with sheep red blood cell (SRBC) and intraperitoneally inoculated with H22 cell, then divided into two groups, one reared individually as group (Ⅰ) and the other reared in groups as group (G). Titer of antibody to SRBC and interleukin 2 (IL-2) in serum was monitored. The survival time of mouse with liver cancer was observed.RESULTS: The titer of antibody to SRBC in group (G) was 1:24.5 and that in group (Ⅰ) was 1:11.2. There was a significant difference between these two groups (t = 2.60,P = 0.02). A significant difference in IL-2 concentration was observed between group (G) (39.6 ng/L) and group (Ⅰ) (47.1 ng/L, t= 2.14, P = 0.046). The survival time in group (G) (16.5 d) was markedly longer than that in group (Ⅰ) (13.2 d, t = 3.46, P = 0.002).CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that survival time of the mouse bearing H22 tumor is affected by the social isolation stress and the associated mechanism may be the immunological changes under the social isolation stress.
This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)
Full Text Available Objective: The progression of HIV infection depends not only on the combination of drugs and adherence to the Anti Retroviral therapy (ART, but also on various other factors. The survival of an HIV patient depends on interaction of these factors with the therapy. Material and Methods: The parametric approach with and without covariates have been used to analyze the survival data of HIV/AIDS patients. When covariates are not considered, survival distributions are fitted and best one chosen. The inclusion of covariates is analyzed using Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model (CGPR. Results: For a retrospective right censored data of 1689 HIV/AIDS patients undergoing ART at the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India, appropriate survival distributions in the absence of covariates are fitted. Using the Akaike Information Criterion, Gamma distribution is found to be the distribution of best fit. Assuming Gamma survival distribution with right censored survival time data, the mean survival time of AIDS patients using the method of maximum likelihood is found to be 11.14 years. Also, CGPR model for estimating the survival time while accounting for the impact of cofactors is used for the first time on the AIDS dataset. Conclusion: The advantage of using a CGPR model over the gamma right censored distribution is that the mean survival time of the AIDS patient undergoing ART can be estimated in the presence of significant prognostic factors. Using this model, age, gender, smoking status, alcoholism, WHO staging, improvement in CD4 count, opportunistic infections, number of visits and weight at initiation of ART are identified as significant prognostic factors effecting the survival time. On averaging the predicted survival times based on CGPR model, the mean survival time of AIDS patients on ART is found to be 12.12 years.
Obstructions caused by accidents can trigger or exacerbate traffic congestion. This paper derives the efficient traffic pattern for a rush hour with congestion and accidents and the corresponding road toll. Compared to the model without accidents, where the toll equals external costs imposed on drivers using the road at the same time, a new insight arises: An optimal toll also internalizes the expected increase in future congestion costs. Since accidents affect more drivers if traffic volumes...
YANG XiaoBao; GAO ZiYou; GUO HongWei; HUAN Mei
This paper presents an important investigation into car travel time affected by mixed traffic flow near a bus stop on the basis of survival analysis theory.Travel time data associated with mixed traffic characteristics near a bus stop were collected by video cameras.A hazard-based duration model was introduced to analyze the effects of mixed traffic flow on car travel time.The results indicate that mixed traffic flow impacts car travel time significantly.And the presence of bus berthing violation would delay car travel time.The proposed model can be used to forecast temporal shifts in car travel time due to changes in mixed traffic flow.The influential factors related to mixed traffic flow should be given full consideration in the planning and designing of bus stops in developing countries.
Alonso, M A; Souza, C M; Linhares, A X; Thyssen, P J
Chrysomya megacephala (F.) and Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are considered of forensic, medical, and veterinary importance in Brazil because of their necrophagous and synanthropic behaviour. The development of flies can be influenced by temperature, and species from the same genus usually have different responses to external variables. The egg development of blow fly can be a useful complementary technique to estimate the minimum postmortem interval. Thus, this study aimed to compare the egg developmental time and survival of C. megacephala and C. putoria at different temperatures to determine the optimal temperature for egg development and the linear regression for developmental time and temperature, thereby determining the minimum threshold (t) and thermal summation constant (K) for each species. Adults of both species were collected in the region of Campinas city, São Paulo state, Brazil. Eggs were incubated at eight constant temperatures between 05 ± 1°C and 35 ± 1°C and the egg developmental time and survival were evaluated. There was no egg survival at 5 and 10°C. The K for C. megacephala and C. putoria were 179.41 HD and 189.94 HD, respectively. The regression slopes and t (10°C) were similar for both species. The optimal temperature for egg survival was between 25 and 35°C, for C. megacephala and 20 and 30°C, for C. putoria. The present data were similar to most data available in the literature, but differences in the same species are a possibility. PMID:26335461
The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Mitchell, Emily M; Hinkle, Stefanie N; Schisterman, Enrique F
There is substantial interest in understanding the impact of gestational weight gain on preterm delivery (delivery hazard ratio: 0.89, 95% confidence interval = 0.84, 0.93). Properly accounting for the confounding effect of time using a survival model, however, mitigates this bias (hazard ratio: 0.98, 95% confidence interval = 0.97, 1.00). These results emphasize the importance of considering the effect of gestational age on time-varying covariates during pregnancy, and the proposed methods offer a convenient mechanism to appropriately analyze such data.See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B13. PMID:26489043
Abolnik, Celia; Gouws, Johan
The survival times of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg) and Mycoplasma synoviae (Ms) on washed and unwashed natural and synthetic kanekalon hair samples over a 5-d period were evaluated using the color changing unit method for comparison with results of previous studies conducted on natural hair. Regardless of whether synthetic or natural hair samples prewashed with a disinfectant shampoo were spiked with Mg or Ms, all viable organisms rapidly dropped below a count of 1 × 10(1)/mL of culture. Unwashed natural hair seeded with a titer of approximately 1 × 10(6)/mL of viable Mg or Ms decreased to 6 × 10(5)/mL and 6 × 10(3)/mL, respectively, by 4 h postseeding, but no viable Mg or Ms were detected on natural hair from 8 h onwards. By contrast, the titers of Mg and Ms on synthetic hair did not decline from the initial 1 × 10(6)/mL seed dose up to 96 h postseeding, and, in fact, viable Mg and Ms was still detectable at 9 d postinfection. Application of a real-time quantitative single-tube duplex PCR assay confirmed that no proliferation of Mg or Ms had occurred on the synthetic hair samples, the cells simply remained viable. The unexpected finding that Mg and Ms survive for extended periods on synthetic kanekalon hair fibers raises the question of whether attachment to a surface is a prerequisite for the survival and persistence of Mg and Ms in the extra-host environment. Future studies should be aimed at determining whether other synthetic hair types or indeed other types of plastics commonly found in the poultry house offer similar survival advantages to mycoplasmas. PMID:24570416
Abarca, Mariana; Lill, John T
Climate change is disrupting species interactions by altering the timing of phenological events such as budburst for plants and hatching for insects. We combined field observations with laboratory manipulations to investigate the consequences of climate warming on the phenology and performance of the eastern tent caterpillar (Malacosoma americanum). We evaluated the effects of warmer winter and spring regimes on caterpillar hatching patterns and starvation endurance, traits likely to be under selection in populations experiencing phenological asynchrony, using individuals from two different populations (Washington, DC, and Roswell, GA). We also quantified the proximate and extended fitness effects of early food deprivation and recorded spring phenology of local caterpillars and their host plants. In addition, we conducted laboratory assays to determine if caterpillars are using plant chemical cues to fine-tune their hatching times. Warmer winter temperatures induced earlier hatching and caterpillars from GA survived starvation for periods that were 30% longer than caterpillars from DC. Warmer spring regimes reduced the starvation endurance of caterpillars overwintering in the wild but not in the laboratory. Early starvation dramatically reduced hatchling survival; however, surviving caterpillars did not show detrimental effects on pupal mass or development time. In the field, hatching preceded budburst in both 2013 and 2014 and the period of optimal foliage quality was 2 weeks shorter in 2013. Hatching time was unaffected by exposure to plant volatiles. Overall, we found that warmer temperatures can trigger late-season asynchrony by accelerating plant phenology and caterpillars from different populations exhibit differential abilities to cope with environmental unreliability. PMID:26093630
Determining the key factors affecting the reproductive success of nesting birds is crucial in order to better understand the population dynamics of endangered species and to introduce effective conservation programmes for them. Inhabiting a variety of wetland habitats, aquatic birds actively select safe nesting sites so as to protect their nests against predators. The main aim of the present work was to assess the effect of temporal and habitat variables on the daily nest survival rate of Eurasian Bitterns colonizing semi–natural fishpond habitat in eastern Poland. MARK software was used for the modelling. Eurasian Bittern nests were most vulnerable to depredation at the beginning of the breeding season. This was probably because the reedbed vegetation at this time was not yet dense enough to effectively conceal the nests. There was a positive relationship between nest age and the daily survival rate. Two of the habitat variables analysed were of the greatest significance: water depth and vegetation density. In the Eurasian Bittern population studied here, nests built over deep water and in dense vegetation had the best chances of survival. The results of this work may be useful in the preparation of plans for the conservation and management of populations of this rare and endangered species. Conservation and restoration efforts that attempt to maintain high water levels will be especially beneficial to this avian species that is dependent on wetland ecosystems for breeding. PMID:27350897
Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.
Full Text Available Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Material and methods: In-hospital cardiac arrest teams at our hospital were instructed to complete a questionnaire following every emergency call between July 2011 and June 2013. Data on all resuscitation attempts were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 65 in-hospital resuscitations were recorded in 42 males (64.6% and 23 females (35.4% (mean age 72.0±14.3 years. A total of 54 (83.1% cardiac arrests were witnessed; seven (10.8% showed a shockable rhythm at the time of the first ECG. Resuscitation attempts lasted 29.3±41.3 minutes, and 4.1±3.1 mg epinephrine was given. Return of spontaneous circulation could be achieved in 38 patients (58.5%; 29 (44.6% survived the first day, 23 (35.4% the seventh day, and 15 patients (23.1% were discharged alive. Significantly more in-hospital resuscitations were obtained for those performed during non-regular working hours (P<0.001, with higher neuron-specific enolase levels at 72 hours after resuscitation during nonregular working hours (P=0.04. Patients who were discharged alive were significantly younger (P=0.01, presented more often with an initial shockable rhythm (P=0.04, and had a shorter duration of resuscitation (P<0.001 with the need of a lower dose of epinephrine (P<0.001. Discussion: Survival rates following in-hospital resuscitation were poor at any time, but appear to depend less on time-dependent effects of the quality of resuscitation and more on time-dependent effects of recognition of cardiac arrests
McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)
Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.
Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered
This study investigated into the news frames employed in reporting on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, explored the maintenance of the radiation reporting standard, and assessed the overall tone for the local government, the Japanese Government, and the IAEA. Based on content from Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times (n=60), it was found that media evoked 'conflict', 'responsibility attribution', and 'human interest' frames, radiation reporting standard was marginally maintained, and the overall tone was neutral (local government, IAEA) or negative (Japanese Government). Variances across countries were observed, but results coincided with the country's nuclear energy policy. (author)
Costa, Lívio; Cunha, João Paulo; Amado, Duarte; Pinto, Luís Abegão; Ferreira, Joana
Glaucoma is a multifactorial condition under serious influence of many risk factors. The role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in glaucoma etiology or progression remains inconclusive. Although, the diabetic patients have different healing mechanism comparing to the general population and it has a possible-negative role on surgical outcomes. This review article attempts to analyze the association of both diseases, glaucoma and DM, before and after the surgery. The epidemiological studies, based mainly in population prevalence analyzes, have shown opposite outcomes in time and even in the most recent articles also the association remains inconclusive. On the contrary, the experimental models based on animal induced chronic hyperglycemia have shown an important association of both diseases, explained by common neurodegenerative mechanisms. Diabetic patients have a different wound healing process in the eye viz-a-viz other organs. The healing process is more and it results in lower surgical survival time, higher intraocular pressure (IOP) levels and, therefore, these patients usually need more medication to lower the IOP. Both randomized and nonrandomized retrospective and experimental molecular studies have shown the association between DM and glaucoma. Further studies are needed to get better explanations about outcomes on more recent surgical procedures and with the exponential use of antifibrotics. How to cite this article: Costa L, Cunha JP, Amado D, Pinto LA, Ferreira J. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review. J Curr Glaucoma Pract 2015;9(3):81-85. PMID:26997842
Ferrario, M M; Landone, S; De Biasi, M; Tagliasacchi, R; Riva, R; Veronesi, G; Sassi, M; Borchini, R; Bonzini, M
Unbiased estimates of incidence rates of accidents with blood contaminations (ABC) and time trends is the milieu for assessing the effectiveness of preventive interventions. A standardised procedure for registration and follow-up of ABC was et up in a North Italian hospital since 2002. Accurate estimates of rate denominator, as full-time equivalent (FTE) person-years, was calculated, for exposed workers only and excluding periods of prolonged absence. In the observation period (2004-2011), training courses for head nurses on security procedures were repeatedly carried out as well as the progressive introduction of vacuum blood collection systems (since 2009). 1287 ABC have been reported, corresponding to an overall annual crude incidence rate of 4.73 per 100 FTE. Temporal trends, calculated on the biennial incidence, resulted in a reductions over the time period considered, in particular for needlestick injuries. Our results support the notions on the efficacy of the adopted prevention measures. PMID:23405640
Rao Nagesha AS
Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the
Effects of α-adrenergic antagonists have been studied during environmental heating but not during microwave-induced heating. Tolazoline may exert some of its effects via α-adrenergic blockade. In the present study, ketamine-anesthetized Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to 2450-MHz microwaves at an average power density of 60 mW/cm2 (whole-body specific absorption rate of approximately 14 W/kg) until lethal temperatures were attained. The effects of tolazoline (10 mg/kg body weight) on physiological responses (including changes in body temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, and respiratory rate) were examined. Survival time was significantly shorter in the tolazoline group than in saline-treated animals. In general, heart rate and blood pressure responses were similar to those that occur during environmental heat stress. Heart rate, however, was significantly elevated in animals that received tolazoline, both before and during terminal microwave exposure. It is possible that changes associated with the elevated heart rate (e.g., less cardiac filling) in tolazoline-treated animals resulted in greater susceptibility to microwave-induced heating and the lower survival time. 47 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs
Vaishampayan, Parag A; Rabbow, Elke; Horneck, Gerda; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri J
To prevent forward contamination and maintain the scientific integrity of future life-detection missions, it is important to characterize and attempt to eliminate terrestrial microorganisms associated with exploratory spacecraft and landing vehicles. Among the organisms isolated from spacecraft-associated surfaces, spores of Bacillus pumilus SAFR-032 exhibited unusually high resistance to decontamination techniques such as UV radiation and peroxide treatment. Subsequently, B. pumilus SAFR-032 was flown to the International Space Station (ISS) and exposed to a variety of space conditions via the European Technology Exposure Facility (EuTEF). After 18 months of exposure in the EXPOSE facility of the European Space Agency (ESA) on EuTEF under dark space conditions, SAFR-032 spores showed 10-40% survivability, whereas a survival rate of 85-100% was observed when these spores were kept aboard the ISS under dark simulated martian atmospheric conditions. In contrast, when UV (>110 nm) was applied on SAFR-032 spores for the same time period and under the same conditions used in EXPOSE, a ∼7-log reduction in viability was observed. A parallel experiment was conducted on Earth with identical samples under simulated space conditions. Spores exposed to ground simulations showed less of a reduction in viability when compared with the "real space" exposed spores (∼3-log reduction in viability for "UV-Mars," and ∼4-log reduction in viability for "UV-Space"). A comparative proteomics analysis indicated that proteins conferring resistant traits (superoxide dismutase) were present in higher concentration in space-exposed spores when compared to controls. Also, the first-generation cells and spores derived from space-exposed samples exhibited elevated UVC resistance when compared with their ground control counterparts. The data generated are important for calculating the probability and mechanisms of microbial survival in space conditions and assessing microbial contaminants
Anna Sophie Berghoff
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: MRI-based diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI visualizes the local differences in water diffusion in vivo. The prognostic value of DWI signal intensities on the source images and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC maps respectively has not yet been studied in brain metastases (BM. METHODS: We included into this retrospective analysis all patients operated for single BM at our institution between 2002 and 2010, in whom presurgical DWI and BM tissue samples were available. We recorded relevant clinical data, assessed DWI signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC values and performed histopathological analysis of BM tissues. Statistical analyses including uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: 65 patients (34 female, 31 male with a median overall survival time (OS of 15 months (range 0-99 months were available for this study. 19 (29.2% patients presented with hyper-, 3 (4.6% with iso-, and 43 (66.2% with hypointense DWI. ADCmean values could be determined in 32 (49.2% patients, ranged from 456.4 to 1691.8*10⁻⁶ mm²/s (median 969.5 and showed a highly significant correlation with DWI signal intensity. DWI hyperintensity correlated significantly with high amount of interstitial reticulin deposition. In univariate analysis, patients with hyperintense DWI (5 months and low ADCmean values (7 months had significantly worse OS than patients with iso/hypointense DWI (16 months and high ADCmean values (30 months, respectively. In multivariate survival analysis, high ADCmean values retained independent statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative DWI findings strongly and independently correlate with OS in patients operated for single BM and are related to interstitial fibrosis. Inclusion of DWI parameters into established risk stratification scores for BM patients should be considered.
Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...
Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi
A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.
Platelet survival time (PST) studies are useful to demonstrate whether or not patients with prosthetic heart valves have normal or shortened PST. During treatment for recurrent TIAs the PST will signal whether the patient is returning towards a normal PST. Using Indium-111 labeled platelets (ILP) the authors studied 10 patients suffering recurrent TIAs after prosthetic valve surgery to determine whether low dose aspirin increased their PST toward normal and whether the treatment had a beneficial effect on their TIA episodes. The authors conclude that low dose aspirin therapy as studied by ILP has no beneficial effect on PST or in preventing recurrent TIA. ILP is an important technique that allows the physician to identify those patients with shortened PST and to determine response to therapy
Westerman, M.P. (Rush Medical College, Chicago, IL); Wald, N.; Diloy-Puray, M.
X radiation of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient red cells causes distinct shortening of their survival time. This is accompanied by significant lowering of reduced glutathione content and is not observed in similarly prepared and treated normal cells. The damage is most likely related to irradiation-induced formation of activated oxygen products and to their subsequent effects on the cells. Neither methemoglobin increases nor Heinz body formation were observed, suggesting that hemolysis occurred prior to these changes. The study provides a model for examining the effects of irradiation and activated oxygen on red cells and suggests that patients with G6PD deficiency who receive irradiation could develop severe hemolysis in certain clinical settings.
X radiation of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient red cells causes distinct shortening of their survival time. This is accompanied by significant lowering of reduced glutathione content and is not observed in similarly prepared and treated normal cells. The damage is most likely related to irradiation-induced formation of activated oxygen products and to their subsequent effects on the cells. Neither methemoglobin increases nor Heinz body formation were observed, suggesting that hemolysis occurred prior to these changes. The study provides a model for examining the effects of irradiation and activated oxygen on red cells and suggests that patients with G6PD deficiency who receive irradiation could develop severe hemolysis in certain clinical settings
Sambunjak, Dario; Ivanis, Ana
Medical journals and their editors have a unique responsibility in armed conflicts. The experience of the Croatian Medical Journal during and after the 1991-1995 war in Croatia shows how a medical journal can survive, help others and learn in times of war. The first duty of a medical journal in such circumstances is to publish scientific articles on various aspects of war medicine, and to document cases of human rights abuses. In small scientific communities, editors can offer their expertise and assist authors in writing and publishing war-related research and reports. In post-conflict period, medical journals have a responsibility to participate in peace-building and reconciliation efforts. They can do so by publishing good scientific articles regardless of their place or country of origin, re-establishing contacts with colleagues from the opposing sides, striving for the multiethnic or multinational Editorial and Advisory Boards, and engaging in collaborative research and regional initiatives. PMID:16961192
Gang HU; Jiang LIU; Yong-zhan ZHEN; Rong XU; Yu QIAO; Jie WEI; Ping TU
Aim:To investigate the protective effects of rhein lysinate (RHL),a major bioactive constituent of the rhizome of rhubarb (Rheum palmatum Linn or Rheum tanguticum Maxim),against kidney impairment in senescence-prone inbred strain 10 (SAMP10) mice.Methods:SAMP10 mice were orally administered RHL (25 or 50 mg/kg) daily until 50％ of the mice died.Senescence-resistant inbred strain 1 (SAMR1) mice administered no drug were taken as control.The kidneys were harvested after animal death,and examined morphologically and with immunochemical assays.The levels of MAD,SOD and GSH-px in the kidneys were measured with a photometric method.The expression of inflammatory factors and related proteins in the kidneys was analyzed using Western blotting.Results:Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL had no effect on the body weight or phenotype.However,RHL significantly prolonged the median survival time of SAMP10 mice by approximately 25％,as compared to untreated SAMP10 mice.Compared SAMR1 mice,SAMP10 mice had a significantly lower level of SOD in the kidneys,but had no significant difference in the MDA or GSH-px levels.Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL significantly reduced the MAD level,and increased the SOD and GSH-px levels in the kidneys.Glomerulonephritis was observed in SAMP10 mice but not in SAMR1 mice.RHL decreased the incidence of glomerulonephritis,and significantly decreased the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,NF-κB,collagen types Ⅰ and Ⅲ in the kidneys.Conclusion:Accelerated senescence is associated with glomerulonephritis in SAMP10 mice,and RHL prolongs their median survival time by red ucing the severity of glomeruloneph ritis.
In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures
Wu, Jay; Lu, Chung-Hsin; Chang, Shu-Jun; Yang, Yung-Muh; Chang, Bor-Jing; Teng, Jen-Hsin
In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures.
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is most common in Southeast Asia. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between wait time and length of radiotherapy and overall survival (OS) of NPC patients in Taiwan. From Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, this nationwide population-based cohort study identified 3605 NPC patients who received radiotherapy between 2008 and 2011. The impact of time factors on NPC survival rates was estimated with Kaplan-Meier survival curves. A multivariable Cox hazards regression model tested the significance of results after adjustment for other covariables. In all, 317 patients had wait times >4 weeks, 1404 patients had longer duration of radiotherapy (i.e., >10 weeks) and 499 died. Patients with wait times > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks didn’t have significantly inferior survival. Patients with wait times >4 weeks and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks had significantly lower OS than other groups, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.7 (95 % CI, 1.10–2.60). Time was a significant prognostic factor for NPC patients who had both >4 weeks wait times and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks. Patients with wait time > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks had a trend toward an inferior survival
Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.
Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K
OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone. PMID:27308884
The long time trend of the radio cesium contamination of browse and venison (red-, roederr, wild boar) from highly contaminated forest areas of Bavaria is discussed. Biological and ecoligcal half life times are derived. A model similar to the potassium cycle in closed forest systems is described to explain the observations. One of the most important proposals of the model is the prediction that the contamination will not decrease remarkly during the next decades. (orig.)
Predicting the possible consequences of transportation accidents provides a severe challenge to an analyst who must make a judgment of the likely consequences of a release event at an unpredictable time and place. Since it is impractical to try to obtain detailed knowledge of the meteorology and terrain for every potential accident location on a route or to obtain accurate descriptions of population distributions or sensitive property to be protected (data which are more likely to be more readily available when one deals with fixed-site problems), he is constrained to make conservative assumptions in response to a demanding public audience. These conservative assumptions are frequently offset by very small source terms (relative to a fixed site) created when a transport vehicle is involved in an accident. For radioactive materials, which are the principal interest of the authors, only the most elementary models have been used for assessing the consequences of release of these materials in the transportation setting. Risk analysis and environmental impact statements frequently have used the Pasquill-Gifford/gaussian techniques for releases of short duration, which are both simple and easy to apply and require a minimum amount of detailed information. However, after deciding to use such a model, the problem of selecting what specific parameters to use in specific transportation situations still presents itself. Additional complications arise because source terms are not well characterized, release rates can be variable over short and long time periods, and mechanisms by which source aerosols become entrained in air are not always obvious. Some approaches that have been used to address these problems will be reviewed with emphasis on guidelines to avoid the Worst-Case Scenario Syndrome
Full Text Available Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR, few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.
Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.
Rock boulders are typical features of the surfaces of many airless bodies, so the possibility of estimating their potential survival times may provide insights into the rates of surface-modification processes. As an opening point of this study we employ estimates of the survival times of meter-sized boulders on the surface of the Moon based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age (Basilevsky et al., 2013), and apply them, with necessary corrections, to boulders on other bodies. In this approach the major factor of rock destruction is considered to be impacts of meteorites. However another factor of the rock destruction, thermal fatigue due to day-night cycling, does exist and it was claimed by Delbo et al. (2014) as being more important than meteorite impacts. They concluded this on the basis of known presence of fine material on the surface of small asteroids, claiming that due to extremely low gravity on those bodies, the products of meteorite bombardment should leave these bodies, and thus their presence indicates that the process of thermal fatigue should be much more effective there. Delbo et al. (2014) made laboratory experiments on heating-cooling centimeter-sized samples of chondrites and, applying some assumptions and theoretical modeling concluded that, for example, at 1 AU distance from the Sun, the lifetime of 10 cm rock fragments on asteroids with period of rotation from 2.2 to 6 h should be only ~103 to 104 years (that is ~3.5×106 to 1.5×107 thermal cycles) and the larger the rock, the faster it should be destroyed. In response to those conclusions we assessed the results of earlier laboratory experiments, which show that only a part of comminuted material produced by high-velocity impacts into solid rocks is ejected from the crater while another part is not ejected but stays exposed on the target surface and is present in its subsurface. This means that the presence of
The rate of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in northern Ukraine during the period 1986-1998 is described as a function of time-since-exposure, age-at-exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk per dose: after a minimal latency period of about three years it shows a linear increase with time-since-exposure for at least nine years. It is roughly constant in age-at-exposure, up to 15 years. For girls exposed very young it is about a factor 2 larger than for boys. For children exposed at age 16-18 this ratio increases to about 5. The thyroids of young children are not more sensitive to radiation dose than those of older ones in absolute risk in northern Ukraine in the currently used data set. As the background is increasing with age, a constant absolute risk gives a decreasing relative risk
Gismondi, Fulvio; Janssen, Jacques; Manca, Raimondo
Non-homogeneous renewal processes are not yet well established. One of the tools necessary for studying these processes is the non-homogeneous time convolution. Renewal theory has great relevance in general in economics and in particular in actuarial science, however most actuarial problems are connected with the age of the insured person. The introduction of non-homogeneity in the renewal processes brings actuarial applications closer to the real world. This paper will define the non-homogen...
Muñoz-Gutiérrez, M A; Pichardo, B
The orbital elements of comet Halley are known to a very high precision, suggesting that the calculation of its future dynamical evolution is straightforward. In this paper we seek to characterize the chaotic nature of the present day orbit of comet Halley and to quantify the timescale over which its motion can be predicted confidently. In addition, we attempt to determine the timescale over which its present day orbit will remain stable. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of test particles in orbits similar to that of comet Halley are carried out with the Mercury 6.2 code. On the basis of these we construct survival time maps to assess the absolute stability of Halley's orbit, frequency analysis maps, to study the variability of the orbit and we calculate the Lyapunov exponent for the orbit for variations in initial conditions at the level of the present day uncertainties in our knowledge of its orbital parameters. On the basis of our calculations of the Lyapunov exponent for comet Halley, the chaotic nat...
Nichols, Tracy A; Spraker, Terry R; Gidlewski, Thomas; Cummings, Bruce; Hill, Dana; Kong, Qingzhong; Balachandran, Aru; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Zabel, Mark D
Chronic wasting disease (CWD), the only known wildlife prion disease, affects deer, elk and moose. The disease is an ongoing and expanding problem in both wild and captive North American cervid populations and is difficult to control in part due to the extreme environmental persistence of prions, which can transmit disease years after initial contamination. The role of exogenous factors in CWD transmission and progression is largely unexplored. In an effort to understand the influence of environmental and dietary constituents on CWD, we collected and analyzed water and soil samples from CWD-negative and positive captive cervid facilities, as well as from wild CWD-endozootic areas. Our analysis revealed that, when compared with CWD-positive sites, CWD-negative sites had a significantly higher concentration of magnesium, and a higher magnesium/copper (Mg/Cu) ratio in the water than that from CWD-positive sites. When cevidized transgenic mice were fed a custom diet devoid of Mg and Cu and drinking water with varied Mg/Cu ratios, we found that higher Mg/Cu ratio resulted in significantly longer survival times after intracerebral CWD inoculation. We also detected reduced levels of inflammatory cytokine gene expression in mice fed a modified diet with a higher Mg/Cu ratio compared to those on a standard rodent diet. These findings indicate a role for dietary Mg and Cu in CWD pathogenesis through modulating inflammation in the brain. PMID:27216881
Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. It does not cause any symptoms in the early stage, and later symptoms are nonspecific, thus the disease is usually diagnosed when already advanced. In 2008, pancreatic cancer ranked eighth on the list of the 10 most common cancers among men in Croatia and tenth on the list of the most common cancers among Croatian women. Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, with a survival time of only 6–8 months for metastatic disease. Gemcitabine is the standard chemotherapeutic option. Other chemotherapeutic agents include5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. In this paper, we present a case of a patient diagnosed with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, who is still alive and currently receives his fourth line of chemotherapy 5 years after the diagnosis. Following disease progression on gemcitabine chemotherapy, he was treated with chemoradiotherapy which, however, had no effect. We then applied cisplatin monochemotherapy which offered excellent disease control, was well tolerated by the patient and, although somewhat obsolete in this form, showed to be a valuable chemotherapeutic option.
Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel
The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed. PMID:16794241
This paper discusses the similarities and differences between the United States (US) and Japan on nuclear reactor regulations based on a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) study after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The US and Japan had many similarities in design basis requirements and guidance at the time of the event. There were also differences between the US and Japan in the approach to beyond design basis events and severe accidents. This paper also discusses the NRC's post-Fukushima activities and US industry’s responses. This paper will give the most recent updates on these activities and path forward. (author)
The hydrogen concentration results in a reaction due to oxidation for different values of fractional coefficient, at t=0 and short times were obtained. The physical meaning is discussed when the fractional coefficient tends to a value of 1 and when it tends to a value of 0.5, i.e., within the limits of validity of the fractional model proposed. According to the results obtained the hydrogen concentration is inversely proportional to the fractional coefficient. These results are relevant for decision making in terms of risk analysis in nuclear power plant with BWR.
The SIPA simulator, now under development, is designed to study in real time PWR behaviour under normal and accidental conditions. The commissioning of the version for EDF, called SIPA 1, and of the CEA version called SIPA 2 is planned in 1991. Its objectives are Shift Safety Advisors training, studies and safety analysis. Its software workshop will allow flexibility and portability. Most of the models are developed using code generators. The primary circuit is described by CATHARE-SIMU, a speeded-up version of the French advanced code CATHARE. It will be completed by about 35 connected systems developed by THOMSON-CSF and SEMA-GROUP. The computational power will be supplied by a CRAY processor that will be linked to a training network and an engineering network constituted of some independent workstations
A class of estimators of the mean survival time with interval censored data are studied by unbiased transformation method.The estimators are constructed based on the observations to ensure unbiasedness in the sense that the estimators in a certain class have the same expectation as the mean survival time.The estimators have good properties such as strong consistency (with the rate of O(n-1/2 (log log n)1/2)) and asymptotic normality.The application to linear regression is considered and the simulation reports are given.
Objective: To describe the CT manifestations of thymic epithelial tumor and explore the correlation between CT findings and post-operative tumor-related survival time. Methods: Ninety-one patients who underwent CT scan before operation were reviewed retrospectively. All cases had operation and were classified according to the WHO classification. The size, contour, shape, density and enhancement of the tumors on CT were assessed. Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy, great vessel invasion, metastasis to the lung or plural, myasthenia gravis (MG) were also analyzed. The survival rate was obtained using, the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox model was applied to determine the factors affecting the tumor-related survivals. Chi square test was used to analyze the relationship between CT findings and WHO classification. Results: Two patients were excluded because of dying of myocardial infarction and colon cancer. The total 5-year survival rate was 84.3% (n=75). Eighty-nine patients had total 91 tumors. Tumors with diameter larger than 5 cm, lobular contour, heterogenous density, and presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis were adverse factors which could significantly affect the survival time. Five-year survival rates of these factors were 72.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, 73.8%, 30.0%, and 68.8%, respectively. Presence of MG was a favorable factor which also significantly affected the survival time (P0.05). The result of the Cox multivariate analysis was consistent with that of the Log-rank test. For different WHO classification, there were significant different among the size or contour of the tumors, presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis (χ2 value were 6.598, 5.737, 18.307, 8.465, and 15.608, respectively P<0.05). Conclusions: CT findings may be served as predictors of clinical prognosis of the thymic epithelial tumors. Adverse factors for survival time are the size of the tumors and presence of
Christ M; Dierschke W; von Auenmueller KI; van Bracht M; Grett M; Trappe HJ
Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Materi...
Shannon, H S; Walters, V; Lewchuck, W; Richardson, J; Moran, L A; Haines, T; Verma, D
We report the results of a questionnaire survey of manufacturing workplaces related to the lost-time frequency rates (LTFR) for Workers' Compensation claims. Six types of industry were chosen.' metal articles, plastic articles, grain products, textile manufacturing, printing, and automobile manufacturing. LTFR were standardized by type of industry. Stratifying simultaneously by number of employees and LTFR category, we sampled 718 workplaces. A mail questionnaire to labor and management representatives provided at least some information on 58%. Response rates were similar across LTFR categories, and telephone interviews of non-responders showed little difference in their replies from those obtained in completed questionnaires. A large number of variables were examined. Apart from statistical significance, we looked for consistency in trends across LTFR categories and in patterns for similar questions. Significant associations grouped into several areas. Lower LTFR were associated with: concrete demonstration by management of its concern for the workforce; greater involvement of workers in general decision-making; greater willingness of the Joint Health and Safety Committee to solve problems internally; and greater experience of the workforce. Variables that were not significant included profitability and financial performance. A final stepwise multiple regression explained 19% of the variance in LTFR, although this analysis suffered from several limitations. PMID:8833778
Detailed analysis of accidental released of radioactive material from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has shown that long-lived radionuclides add considerable support for intensity of ion formation. Based on the results of airborne monitoring by MEXT and DOE (total surface deposition of Cs134 and Cs137 inside 80 km zone of Fukushima Daiichi NPP) it has been calculated the spatial distribution of the intensity of ion formation and atmospheric electric conductivity. The evidence of plutonium in the Fukushima radioactive trace allows calculates the concentration of small, intermediate and large ions. The results show the excess of these parameters by several orders of magnitude since the accident to the present time. For example the concentration of small air ion in the area of Chernobyl is 7±2?102 cm-3, the Fukushima Daiichi NPP ones is 1.3?106 cm-3. The difference in the atmospheric bipolar electric conductivity is about 24 fS/m between the Chernobyl and the Fukushima Daiichi ones. The evaluation technique was used after Chernobyl disaster allows to make an analysis of ecological, hygiene requirements and other problems into the troposphere and on the soil intensity of ion formation in the area of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The standard ion air differ by four orders of magnitude in the case for Fukushima Daiichi ones. Comparative study of the radiophysical characteristics of the atmosphere with the analogous ones in Chernobyl and application of identification of various types of the air pollution is discussed.
The Loss of Flow Accident (LOFA) is a serious safety concern for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) as it has been suggested that greater than 100 seconds are necessary to safely shutdown the plasma when ITER is operating at full power. In this experiment, the thermal response of a prototypical ITER divertor tube during a simulated LOFA was studied. The divertor tube was fabricated from oxygen-free high-conductivity copper to have a square geometry with a circular coolant channel. The coolant channel inner diameter was 0.77 cm, the heated length was 4.0 cm, and the heated width was 1.6 cm. The mockup did not feature any flow enhancement techniques, i.e., swirl tape, helical coils, or internal fins. One-sided surface heating of the mockup was accomplished through the use of the 30 kW Sandia Electron Beam Test System. After reaching steady state temperatures in the mockup, as determined by two Type-K thermocouples installed 0.5 mm beneath the heated surface, the coolant pump was manually tripped off and the coolant flow allowed to naturally coast down. Electron beam heating continued after the pump trip until the divertor tube's heated surface exhibited the high temperature transient normally indicative of rapidly approaching burnout. Experimental data showed that time-to-burnout increases proportionally with increasing inlet velocity and decreases proportionally with increasing incident heat flux
This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats
Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.
The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.
Full Text Available Introduction: Accidents are known among the leading causes of deaths and disabilities in developing and industrialized countries. Among the various occupations and activities, construction industry is among the most hazardous industries in the world, the risk of which and its following harms are still somehow unknown. This study aimed at investigating the epidemiology of accidents in construction, for the first time in Kerman. Methods: In this descriptive, analytical study, all construction workers (n=153 who had been hurt at work during 2006-2008 were investigated. The data were collected through questionnaire and were analyzed by chi-square and regression logistic test, SPSS statistical software. Results: The mean age of the injured workers was 32 years (the lowest age was 16 and the highest was 70 years and the highest rate of accidents occurred among the 16-36 years-old age group. Generally, 16.3 % (n=25 of the accidents led to death and 77.8% of the accidents occurred to people with junior high school and lower levels of education. There were significant relationships between the three variables of year, season and the shift in which the accident occurred and the result (death or survival of the accident. However, no significant relationships were observed between the insurance status of the injured and the results of the accidents. Conclusion: In Iran, there are strong relationships between reasons and results of accidents, so this study recommends more studies with the aim of changing the current trend to prevent the accidents in future.
OBJECTIVE To examine the ultrastructure of gastric cancer cells by the electron microscope, in order to assess the relationship between neuroendocrine differentiation and post-operative survival time.METHODS NSE, Syn and CgA immunohistochemical labeling was conducted in 168 cases with a common-type of gastric cancer. Electron microscopy was performed in 80 cases with positive immunohistochemical labeling.These cases were followed-up for over 5 years and the post-operative survival data analyzed.RESULTS Neuroendocrine granules were found by electron microscopy in 39 cases. The rate of neuroendocrine differentiation found was 23% (39/168), using routine diagnostic criteria and electron microscopy (REM).The post-operative survival time of gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation was significantly shorter (P=0.0032) compared to those without neuroendocrine differentiation.CONCLUSION It is of significant clinical importance to determine if the neuroendocrine cells are differentiated in gastric cancers. The gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation have a shorter post-operative survival time and a poorer prognosis. Electron microscopy is a reliable method of providing a diagnosis.
van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A M; Ellers, Jacintha; Pomeren, Marinda van; Krommenhoek, Thibault; Styrishave, Bjarne; Hansen, Martin; Roelofs, Dick
Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the...
On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.
Radiation accidents may be viewed as unusual exposure event which provide possible high exposure to a few people and, in the case of nuclear plants events, low exposure to large population. A number of radiation accidents have occurred over the past 50 years, involving radiation machines, radioactive materials and uncontrolled nuclear reactors. These accidents have resulted in number of people have been exposed to a range of internal and external radiation doses and those involving radioactive materials have involved multiple routs of exposure. Some of the more important accidents involving significant radiation doses or releases of radioactive materials, including any known health effects involves in it. An analysis of the common characteristics of accidents is useful resolving overarching issues, as has been done following nuclear power, industrial radiography and medical accidents. Success in avoiding accidents and responding when they do occur requires planning in order to have adequately trained and prepared health physics organization; well defined and developed instrument program; close cooperation among radiation protection experts, local and state authorities. Focus is given to the successful avoidance of accidents and response in the events they do occur. Palomares, spain in late 1960, Goiania, Brazil in 1987, Thule, Greenland in 1968, Rocky flats, Colorado in 1957 and 1969, Three mile island, Pennsylvania in 1979, Chernobyl Ukraine in april 1986, Kyshtym, former Soviet Union in 1957, Windscale, UK in Oct. 1957 Tomsk, Russian Federation in 1993, and many others are the important examples of major radiation accidents. (author)
Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Sakata, Ritsu; Ozasa, Kotaro; Hayashi, Masayuki; Ohira, Tetsuya; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi
Many studies have been conducted on radiation doses to residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Time spent outdoors is an influential factor for external dose estimation. Since little information was available on actual time spent outdoors for residents, different values of average time spent outdoors per day have been used in dose estimation studies on the FDNPP accident. The most conservative value of 24 h was sometimes used, while 2.4 h was adopted for indoor workers in the UNSCEAR 2013 report. Fukushima Medical University has been estimating individual external doses received by residents as a part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey by collecting information on the records of moves and activities (the Basic Survey) after the accident from each resident. In the present study, these records were analyzed to estimate an average time spent outdoors per day. As an example, in Iitate Village, its arithmetic mean was 2.08 h (95% CI: 1.64-2.51) for a total of 170 persons selected from respondents to the Basic Survey. This is a much smaller value than commonly assumed. When 2.08 h is used for the external dose estimation, the dose is about 25% (23-26% when using the above 95% CI) less compared with the dose estimated for the commonly used value of 8 h. PMID:27034103
Full Text Available Survival estimates are an essential compliment to multivariable regression models for time-to-event data, both for prediction and illustration of covariate effects. They are easily obtained under the Cox proportional-hazards model. In populations defined by an initial, acute event, like myocardial infarction, or in studies with long-term followup, the proportional-hazards assumption of constant hazard ratios is frequently violated. One alternative is to fit an interaction between covariates and a prespecified function of time, implemented as a time-dependent covariate. This effectively creates a time-varying coefficient that is easily estimated in software such as SAS and R. However, the usual programming statements for survival estimation are not directly applicable. Unique data manipulation and syntax is required, but is not well documented for either software. This paper offers a tutorial in survival estimation for the time-varying coefficient model, implemented in SAS and R. We provide a macro coxtvc to facilitate estimation in SAS where the current functionality is more limited. The macro is validated in simulated data and illustrated in an application.
Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George
This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090
Langholz, Bryan; Richardson, David B.
Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of survival data and conditional logistic regression analysis of matched case-control data are methods that are widely used by epidemiologists. Standard statistical software packages accommodate only log-linear model forms, which imply exponential exposure-response functions and multiplicative interactions. In this paper, the authors describe methods for fitting non-log-linear Cox and conditional logistic regression models. The authors use data fro...
In the event of a nuclear accident, there is a need for a rapid assessment of the resulting levels of environmental contamination in order to facilitate decisions on possible countermeasures. Volume 1 of this report covers the development of numerical models, in the form of software packages, to simulate atmospheric transport and deposition over various distances, and techniques for estimation of the resulting doses
This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs
de FREITAS, Alexandre Coutinho Teixeira; SHIGUIHARA, Rafael Shinmi; MONTEIRO, Ruan Teles; PAZETO, Thiago Linck; COELHO, Júlio Cezar Uili
Background : Liver transplantation is the usual treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma. Aim: To analyze the MELD score, waiting time and three month and one year survival for liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma or not. Methods : This was a retrospective, observational and analytical study of 93 patients submitted to liver transplantation. Results : There were 28 hepatocellular carcinoma and 65 non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients with no differences related to age and sex distribution. The main causes of cirrhosis on hepatocellular carcinoma were hepatitis C virus (57.1%) and hepatitis B virus (28.5%), more frequent than non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which presented 27.7% and 4.6% respectively. The physiological and exception MELD score on hepatocellular carcinoma were 11.9 and 22.3 points. On non-hepatocellular carcinoma, it was 19.4 points, higher than the physiological MELD and lower than the exception MELD on hepatocellular carcinoma. The waiting time for transplantation was 96.2 days for neoplasia, shorter than the waiting time for non-neoplasia patients, which was 165.6 days. Three month and one year survival were 85.7% and 78.6% for neoplasia patients, similar to non-neoplasia, which were 77% and 75.4%. Conclusion: Hepatocellular carcinoma patients presented lower physiological MELD score, higher exception MELD score and shorter waiting time for transplantation when compared to non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Three month and one year survival were the same between the groups. PMID:27120734
On the 30. september 1999 occurred a criticality accident in the fuel fabrication plant of Tokai-Mura in Japan. 49 persons were irradiated but we present the case of the most seriously injured three workers. The radiation doses that would have been received by the three operators near the incriminated container have been evaluated to 17, 10 and 3 Grays. For the operators situated at five meters from the container and that has received three Grays, the first peak of criticality has been estimated at 2.1017 fissions. The number of fissions posterior to the first peak has been estimated between 4.1017 and 5.1018. In the three cases, the dose received by the organism has been attributed for about 40% to the neutrons and 60% to gamma radiations. The first operator presented an initial intense phase of acute irradiation syndrome. He received a graft of hematopoietic cells given by a sister of him on the sixth day, he was still alive 29 days later during the visit of the Commission, but he was in a coma and died shortly afterwards. The second victim has been equally reached by an acute irradiation syndrome, accompanied by a severe myeloid depression. At the ninth day, he received a blood graft coming from umbilical cord. He recovered a part of his own marrow, platelets excepted. He suffers from intense pains. A survival chance exists. The third victim was in an adjoining room, at about five meters far from the accident. He has been reached, but in a lower extent, by the acute irradiation syndrome and a low myeloid depression, that has decreased after a growth factors treatment. The prognosis is optimist in his case. The fact that patients have survived for the first time such a long time has revealed a very particular pathology of neutrons-gamma mixed irradiation, with an appearance of new medical problems due to the multiple failure of organs. To notice, the week before the accident, stood at Paris the 6. International conference devoted to the control of criticality
Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.
Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.
Masatcioğlu, Tuğrul M; Avşar, Yahya K
The objectives of this study were to determine the cumulative effects of flavorings (chili pepper, thyme, mint, cumin, nutmeg, allspice, clove, cinnamon, black pepper, salt, and hot red pepper paste), storage conditions, and storage time on the survival of Staphylococcus aureus in Sürk cheese and to monitor the associated chemical changes. Sürk cheese, a traditional Turkish cheese, was produced by heating diluted nonfat yogurt and adding flavorings to the resultant acid-heat curd. The cheese was later inoculated with S. aureus, shaped conically, and stored aerobically for mold growth and anaerobically in olive oil for 30 days at room temperature. The moisture content of aerobically stored cheese decreased over time and led to increases in total solids, salt, salt-in-moisture, and ash content during ripening (P effect, whereas storage conditions and storage duration decreased the survival of S. aureus (P < 0.05). PMID:16013393
Jin Li; Hui-Juan Duan; Hao-Yang Chen; Ying-Jie Ji; Xin Zhang; Yi-Hui Rong; Zhe Xu; Li-Jian Sun; Ji-Yuan Zhang; Li-Ming Liu; Bo Jin; Jian Zhang; Ning Du; Hai-Bin Su; Guang-Ju Teng
Background: A Chinese medical team managed Ebola virus disease (EVD) patients in Sierra Leone from October 2014 to March 2015 and attended to 693 suspected patients, of whom 288 had confirmed disease. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted of the 288 patients with confirmed disease. Clinical symptoms, manifestations, and serum viral load were analyzed and compared among the different groups for mortality and survival time. Results: Among the 288 confirmed EVD patients (149 male an...
Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus
Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on ...
RBE and OER were determined for LSA tumor by survival time assay. The RBEn of Cf vs. Cs-137 was 5.8 and the OER was ∼ 1.4 by experiments performed in vitro and assayed in vivo. When tumor was irradiated in an advanced state in the living mouse, the RBEn was determined to be 5.2 vs. Cs-137. The RBE for hypoxic tumor is larger than for the oxic tumor for Cf-252 neutron irradiation. (Auth.)
Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko
This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. PMID:20618386
The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body γ irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice
Analyzing stability of particle motion in storage rings contributes to the general field of stability analysis in weakly nonlinear motion. A method which we call pseudo invariant estimation (PIE) is used to compute lower bounds on the survival time in circular accelerators. The pseudeo invariants needed for this approach are computed via nonlinear perturbative normal form theory and the required global maxima of the highly complicated multivariate functions could only be rigorously bound with an extension of interval arithmetic. The bounds on the survival times are large enough to the relevant; the same is true for the lower bounds on dynamical aperatures, which can be computed. The PIE method can lead to novel design criteria with the objective of maximizing the survival time. A major effort in the direction of rigourous predictions only makes sense if accurate models of accelerators are available. Fringe fields often have a significant influence on optical properties, but the computation of fringe-field maps by DA based integration is slower by several orders of magnitude than DA evaluation of the propagator for main-field maps. A novel computation of fringe-field effects called symplectic scaling (SYSCA) is introduced. It exploits the advantages of Lie transformations, generating functions, and scaling properties and is extremely accurate. The computation of fringe-field maps is typically made nearly two orders of magnitude faster. (orig.)
Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten
Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be...... initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years...
突发性环境事件时间序列特征可表征环境风险管理成效及存在问题。研究表明2000年以来中国突发环境事件预防、控制与管理取得了显著成效，其中，突发性水污染事件、大气污染事件以及噪声振动危害年发生频次呈大幅度降低趋势，但固废污染事件自2003年以来的年发生频次变化不大，而其它突发性环境事件自2002年以来的年发生频次则呈快速增长态势，说明中国在强调突发性水环境和大气环境事件监管的同时，还需加强固废污染事件及其它类型突发环境事件的监控与管理。%the time series analysis on suddenly happened environmental accidents reflects not only the efficiency but also the existing problem of environmental risk management~ The research showed that Chinese environmental accident prevention, control and management have achieved remarkable results since 2000, the yearly frequency of Water pollution, air pollution and noise pollution occurrence have been decreasing obviously, but the frequency of the solid wastes pollution has been remaining stable since 2003, and the frequency of other types of environmental accidents having been increasing. This indicated that the solid wastes pollution and other types of environmental accidents should also get the same attention at the same time of strengthen Monitoring and management on water and air pollution in China.
Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...
Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo
A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China. PMID:24781332
Kristiansen Ivar S
Full Text Available Abstract Background To preserve patient anonymity, health register data may be provided as binned data only. Here we consider as example, how to estimate mean survival time after a diagnosis of metastatic colorectal cancer from Norwegian register data on time to death or censoring binned into 30 day intervals. All events occurring in the first three months (90 days after diagnosis were removed to achieve comparability with a clinical trial. The aim of the paper is to develop and implement a simple, and yet flexible method for analyzing such interval censored and truncated data. Methods Considering interval censoring a missing data problem, we implement a simple multiple imputation strategy that allows flexible sensitivity analyses with respect to the shape of the censoring distribution. To allow identification of appropriate parametric models, a χ2-goodness-of-fit test--also imputation based--is derived and supplemented with diagnostic plots. Uncertainty estimates for mean survival times are obtained via a simulation strategy. The validity and statistical efficiency of the proposed method for varying interval lengths is investigated in a simulation study and compared with simpler alternatives. Results Mean survival times estimated from the register data ranged from 1.2 (SE = 0.09 to 3.2 (0.31 years depending on period of diagnosis and choice of parametric model. The shape of the censoring distribution within intervals did generally not influence results, whereas the choice of parametric model did, even when different models fit the data equally well. In simulation studies both simple midpoint imputation and multiple imputation yielded nearly unbiased analyses (relative biases of -0.6% to 9.4% and confidence intervals with near-nominal coverage probabilities (93.4% to 95.7% for censoring intervals shorter than six months. For 12 month censoring intervals, multiple imputation provided better protection against bias, and coverage probabilities
Bhatt, Vijaya Raj; Loberiza, Fausto R; Schmit-Pokorny, Kim; Lee, Stephanie J
In the United States, insurance status has been implicated as a barrier to obtaining timely treatment. In this retrospective cohort study of 521 patients who underwent first hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), we investigated the association between timeliness of HCT and overall survival. Timeliness was operationally defined in the following 3 ways: (1) payer approval, from request for approval to actual payer approval; (2) transplantation speed, from payer approval to time of actual HCT; and (3) total time, from request for approval to HCT. Patients with private insurance had longer time to payer approval (P HCT (P HCT (P HCT in lymphoma (n = 278), and autologous HCT in multiple myeloma (n = 121). Additional studies to evaluate the effect of insurance timeliness on all patients for whom HCT is recommended, not just those who undergo HCT, should be conducted. PMID:26988742
We consider the probability of the survival of the neutron population when one neutron is injected into a supercritical fissile convex body. The formalism developed by Pal and Bell is used and the equations arising for the survival probability are solved by using a time-dependent collision probability technique. In principle, this method can be used for arbitrarily shaped convex bodies. A simple one-region case is seen to lead to reasonably accurate results when compared with the work of Gregson and Prinja [Gregson, M.W., Prinja, A.K., 2008. Time-dependent non-extinction probability for fast burst reactors. Transactions of the American Nuclear Society 98, 533 (Anaheim, CA)]. The calculations are extended to the case where a steady background neutron source is present. The time-dependent, self-collision probabilities are evaluated for slab, sphere and infinite cylindrical geometries. A method due to Lefvert [Lefvert, T., 1979. New applications of the collision probability method in neutron transport theory. Progress in Nuclear Energy 4, 97] for solving time-dependent collision probability equations is shown to give accurate results. The usefulness of diffusion theory to solve this problem is also investigated
Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko
Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. PMID:26695880
The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources
Deng, Gengguo; Deng, Ronghai; Yao, Jianping; Liao, Bing; Chen, Yinghua; Wu, Zhongdao; Hu, Hongxing; Zhou, Xingwang; Ma, Yi
Allograft rejection has been an obstacle for long-term survival of patients for many years. Current strategies for transplant rejection are not as optimal as we expected, especially for long-term treatments. Trichinella spiralis, a nematode parasitized in mammalian muscle and as an invader, maintains harmonious with host in the long term by evading host immune attack. To determine whether T. spiralis infection impacts on allograft rejection, we performed mice cardiac allograft transplantation model by using BALB/c (H-2(b)) mice as donors and C57BL/6 (H-2(b)) mice orally infected with 300 muscle larvae for 28 days as recipients. Graft survival was monitored by daily palpation of the abdomen; histologic change was observed by H&E stain; and CD4(+), CD8(+), CD4(+)IFN-γ(+), and CD4(+)IL-17(+) T cells and regulatory T cells were examined with the use of flow cytometry. Serum cytokine levels were measured by Luminex. Finally, we found that mean survival time of cardiac allografts in T. spiralis group was 23.40 ± 1.99 days, while the vehicle control group was 10.60 ± 0.75 days. Furthermore, we observed alleviated histological changes in the heart allograft, decreased corresponding CD8(+) T cells, suppressed Th1 and Th17 responses, and increased regulatory T cell frequency in a murine cardiac transplantation model at day 7 post-transplantation in experimental group. These data suggest that T. spiralis infection resulted in prolonged allograft survival following murine cardiac transplantation, with suppressed Th1/Th17 responses and augmented regulatory T cells. PMID:26481486
Sisti, Helene M.; Glass, Arnold L.; Shors, Tracey J.
Information that is spaced over time is better remembered than the same amount of information massed together. This phenomenon, known as the spacing effect, was explored with respect to its effect on learning and neurogenesis in the adult dentate gyrus of the hippocampal formation. Because the cells are generated over time and because learning…
Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn;
To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....
Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures
Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre; Pilecki, Bartosz; Duelund, Lars; Marcussen, Niels; Christesen, Henrik Thybo
Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p<0.0001). Compared to the controls, E19 VDL pups had lower birth weight (2.13 vs. 2.29g, p<0.001), lung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002), SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002) as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, p<0.0001). At E22, the VDL-induced pulmonary differences were leveled out, but VDL pups had lower CRL (4.0 vs. 4.5cm, p<0.0001). The phospholipid levels and the surfactant protein mRNA expression did not differ between the dietary groups. In conclusion, Vitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted. PMID:27571350
El-Menyar, Ayman; Abdelrahman, Husham; Al-Hassani, Ammar; Ellabib, Mohammad; Asim, Mohammad; Zarour, Ahmad; Al-Thani, Hassan
Background: Blunt chest trauma (BCT) poses significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Objectives: We investigated the clinical presentation and outcome of BCT related to road traffic accidents (RTA). Patients and Methods: A retrospective observational analysis for patients who sustained BCT secondary to RTA in terms of motor vehicle crash (MVC) and pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents (PMVA) who were admitted to the trauma center at Hamad general hospital, Doha, Qatar, between 2008 and 2011. Results: Of 5118 traumatic injury cases, 1004 (20%) were found to have BCT secondary to RTA (77% MVC and 23% PMVA). The majority were males (92%), and expatriates (72%). Among MVCs, 84% reported they did not use protective devices. There was a correlation between chest abbreviated injury score (AIS) and injury severity scoring (ISS) (r = 0.35, r2 = 0.12, P < 0.001). Regardless of mechanism of injury (MOI), multivariate analysis showed that the head injury associated with chest AIS and ISS was a predictor of mortality in BCT. Overall mortality was 15%, and the highest rate was observed within the first 24 hours post-trauma. Conclusions: Blunt chest trauma from RTA represents one-fifth of the total trauma admissions in Qatar, with a high overall mortality. Pedestrians are likely to have more severe injuries and higher fatality rates than MVC victims. Specific injury prevention programs focusing on road safety should be implemented to minimize the incidence of such preventable injuries.
Lewis, Geraint F
It has long been known that once you cross the event horizon of a black hole, your destiny lies at the central singularity, irrespective of what you do. Furthermore, your demise will occur in a finite amount of proper time. In this paper, the use of rockets in extending the amount of time before the collision with the central singularity is examined. In general, the use of such rockets can increase your remaining time, but only up to a maximum value; this is at odds with the ``more you struggle, the less time you have'' statement that is sometimes discussed in relation to black holes. The derived equations are simple to solve numerically and the framework can be employed as a teaching tool for general relativity.
Murray, Thomas A.; Hobbs, Brian P.; Sargent, Daniel J; Carlin, Bradley P.
Presently, there are few options with available software to perform a fully Bayesian analysis of time-to-event data wherein the hazard is estimated semi- or non-parametrically. One option is the piecewise exponential model, which requires an often unrealistic assumption that the hazard is piecewise constant over time. The primary aim of this paper is to construct a tractable semiparametric alternative to the piecewise exponential model that assumes the hazard is continuous, and to provide mod...
Sancho, E; Villarroel, M J; Ferrando, M D
The effect of the fungicide tebuconazole (0.41, 0.52, 0.71 and 1.14mg/L) on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna organisms was monitored using 14 and 21 days exposure tests. A third experiment was performed by exposing D. magna to the fungicide for 14 days followed by 7 days of recovery (14+7). In order to test fungicide effects on D. magna, parameters as survival, mean whole body length, mean total number of neonates per female, mean number of broods per female, mean brood size per female, time to first brood/reproduction and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were used. Reproduction was seriously affected by tebuconazole. All tebuconazole concentrations tested affected the number of broods per female and day to first brood. At 14-days test, number of neonates per female and body size decreased by concentrations of tebuconazole higher than 0.52mg/L, whereas at 21-days test both parameters were affected at all the concentrations tested. Survival of the daphnids after 14 days fungicide exposure did not exhibited differences among experimental and control groups. In this experiment r value was reduced (in a 22%) when animals were exposed to concentrations of 0.71mg/L and 1.14mg/L. Survival of daphnids exposed during 21 days to 1.14mg/L declined, and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) decreased in a 30 % for tebuconazole concentrations higher than 0.41mg/L. Longevity of daphnids pre-exposed to tebuconazole for 14 days and 7 days in clean water did not show differences from control values and all of them survived the 21 days of the test. However, after 7 days in fungicide free medium animals were unable to restore control values for reproductive parameters and length. The maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) was calculated using the r values as parameter of evaluation. MATC estimations were 0.61mg/L and 0.46mg/L for 14 and 21 days, respectively. Results showed that the number of neonates per female was the highest sensitive
Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.
Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.;
Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for 127I and 129I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived 129I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets...... values in winter and spring-summer. The high 129I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up 129I from contaminated soil and...... water, respectively. Long-term declining rate suggests that contribution of the Fukushima-derived 129I to the atmosphere would become less since 2014....
Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function) and M2 (with pro-tumor function) forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group) and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages) and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm2) in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm2) and stroma (approximately 34/mm2) of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm2) and stroma (13/mm2) of the short survival group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively). The M2 macrophage densities were not associated with patient's survival time. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were
Elketroussi, M; Fan, D P
In this paper, six mathematical models were applied to model time trends of smoking cessation. Both statistical and non-statistical methods were used and included the exponential, ideodynamic, log-logistic, Pareto, sickle and Weibull models. All models included the possibilities of both permanent abstinence and relapse to smoking. Time trends from all models were compared with data from the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) program. The Pareto, log-logistic, Weibull and ideodynamic models yielded satisfactory fits to the data while the sickle and exponential models did not. Even though the data used in this paper were not sufficient to distinguish among these four models, the methodology will be useful for further narrowing the model choices as additional data for the testing become available. PMID:2050432
The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks
Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures known to us, the various road locations are treated as isolated spots. With small accident figures it is difficult to detect such places in the known procedures. An alternative procedure starts from...
Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis; Idemudia, Erhabor Sunday
Background First childbirth in a woman’s life is one of the most important events in her life. It marks a turnaround when she might have to drop roles of career building and education, for motherhood and parenthood. The timing of the commencement of these roles affects the child bearing behavior of women as they progress in their reproductive ages. Prevalent early first childbirth in Nigeria has been reported as the main cause of high population growth and high fertility, mortality and morbi...
Parry, Helen Marie; Damery, Sarah; Hudson, Christopher; Maurer, Matthew J; Cerhan, James R; Pachnio, Annette; Begum, Jusnara; Slager, Susan L; Fegan, Christopher; Man, Stephen; Pepper, Christopher; Shanafelt, Tait D; Pratt, Guy; Moss, Paul A H
Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a widely prevalent herpes virus which establishes a state of chronic infection. The establishment of CMV-specific immunity controls viral reactivation and leads to the accumulation of very large numbers of virus-specific T cells which come to dominate the immune repertoire. There is concern that this may reduce the immune response to heterologous infections and HCMV infection has been associated with reduced survival in elderly people. Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) suffer from a state of immune suppression but have a paradoxical increase in the magnitude of the CMV-specific T cell and humoral immune response. As such, there is now considerable interest in how CMV infection impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL. Utilizing a large prospective cohort of patients with B-CLL (n = 347) we evaluated the relationship between HCMV seropositivity and patient outcome. HCMV seropositive patients had significantly worse overall survival than HCMV negative patients in univariate analysis (HR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.34-3.88; P = 0.002). However, CMV seropositive patients were 4 years older than seronegative donors and this survival difference was lost in multivariate modeling adjusted for age and other validated prognostic markers (P = 0.34). No significant difference was found in multivariate modeling between HCMV positive and negative patients in relation to the time to first treatment (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.68-1.84; P = 0.65). These findings in a second independent cohort of 236 B-CLL patients were validated. In conclusion no evidence that HCMV impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL was found. Am. J. Hematol. 91:776-781, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27124884
From the ICRP (2009) aspect of protection of people living in long-term contaminated area after a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency, the author discusses the title subject for expertise nursing at the restoration from the recent disaster of the nuclear power plant accident in Japan. Phases involved in the accident are the emergent and restoring period for retuning to the ordinary time. At the former phase, the reactor state is abnormal, radioactive substances are released in the environment, and emergent activities are required to prevent exposure like taking shelter indoor, evacuation, and limitation of forwarding and ingestion of food/water. For radiation management, the emergent dose of general public can be eased to 20-100 mSv, and at the latter restoration period, to 1-20 mSv/y (ICRP). Japan has defined for the former to be 20 mSv, which has brought about a heavy load like evacuation of 170 thousand people, death of patients during evacuation, unemployment, family broken up, school closing, etc. The author then mentions about the epidemiologically insignificant effect of lower dose than 200 mSv. Also mentions about the importance of mental care with an example of a housewives' anxiety in Tokyo, leading to the importance of nursing work. Further, about lost matters by fears of a small risk, like wearing the long sleeve clothes and mask in a closed room, buying foreign food rather than domestic, the misunderstood long retention of Cs-137 in the body because of its long physical half life, etc. Finally, the author lists home-pages for question and anxiety about radiological problems. (T.T.)
Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J;
stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259......BACKGROUND: Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1...
许勇钢; 麻柔; 胡乃平; 刘锋; 杨经敏; 马玲; 胡晓梅
To observe the effects of Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (FZKBG) on immune function and survival time in minimal residual leukemia (MRL) model mice and explore its mechanism. Methods: MRL model mice were established by hypodermic inoculation with L7212 cells 1×106 following intraperitoneal injection of cytoxan (CTX) 250 mg/kg 3 days later, and divided into the control group and FZKBG treated group. The changes of T-lymphocyte subsets, including CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+, and the survival time in model mice were observed. Results: Compared with the control, FZKBG could obviously increase both the percentage and absolute value of CD3+ and CD4+ lymphocytes and prolong the survival time of model mice, the prolongation rate being 29.6% - 60.4%. Conclusion: FZKBG could markedly prolong the survival time of MRL mice, and its mechanism might be through elevating the immunologic function and inhibiting the leukemia cells in model mice.
Harnish, Ryan A.; Johnson, Gary E.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Hughes, Michael S.; Ebberts, Blaine D.
Off-channel areas (side channels, tidal flats, sand bars, and shallow-water bays) may serve as important migration corridors through estuarine environments for salmon and steelhead smolts. Relatively large percentages (21-33%) of acoustic-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts were detected migrating through off-channel areas of the Columbia River estuary in 2008. The probability of survival for off-channel migrants (0.78-0.94) was similar to or greater than the survival probability of main channel migrants (0.67-0.93). Median travel times were similar for all species or run types and migration pathways we examined, ranging from 1-2 d. The route used by smolts to migrate through the estuary may affect their vulnerability to predation. Acoustic-tagged steelhead that migrated nearest to avian predator nesting colonies experienced higher predation rates (24%) than those that migrated farthest from the colonies (10%). The use of multiple migration pathways may be advantageous to out-migrating smolts because it helps to buffer against high rates of mortality, which may occur in localized areas, and helps to minimize inter- and intraspecific competition.
Kourou, Konstantina; Rigas, George; Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Goletsis, Yorgos; Exarchos, Themis P; Jacobs, Steven; Meyns, Bart; Trivella, Maria-Giovanna; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I
Heart failure is one of the most common diseases worldwide. In recent years, Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) have become a valuable option for patients with advanced HF. Although it has been shown that VADs improve patient survival rates, several complications persist during left VAD (LVAD) support. The stratification scores currently employed are mostly generic, i.e. not specifically built for LVAD patients, and are based on pre-implantation patient data. In this work we apply data mining approaches for the prediction of time dependent survival in patients after LVAD implantation. Moreover, the predictions acquired with the use of pre-implantation data are enriched by employing post-implantation data, i.e. follow-up data. Different clinical scenarios have been depicted and the subsequent conditions are tested in order to identify the optimal set of pre- and post-implant features, as well as the most suitable algorithms for feature selection and prediction. The proposed approach is applied to a real dataset of 71 patients, reporting an accuracy of 84.5%, sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 82%. Based on the reported results, expert cardio-surgeons can be supported in planning the treatment of VAD patients. PMID:26820445
Background and purpose: We investigated whether earlier PSA failure following prostate brachytherapy is associated with increased rates of distant metastases (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall mortality. Materials and methods: We retrospectively analyzed 2818 patients who underwent brachytherapy ± external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) ± androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). With median follow-up of 5.52 years, 264 patients experienced PSA failure at a median time of 3.25 years. Patients were stratified to early vs. late PSA failures at cutoffs of 1.5 years, 3 years, or 5 years, and tested in univariate/multivariate analyses for freedom from DM, cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Results: Among patients with PSA failures, 69 (26%) patients experienced DM, 47 (18%) PCSM, and 56 (21%) deaths from other causes. Patients with rapid PSA failures demonstrated increased rates of DM, PCSM, and overall mortality, despite higher total BED and longer ADT. In multivariate analysis with a PSA failure interval <3 years, the hazard ratio (HR) for DM was 3.92 (95% CI: 2.34–6.55; p = 0.000); HR for PCSM was 2.79 (95% CI: 1.45–5.38; p = 0.002); and HR for overall mortality was 2.28 (95% CI: 1.50–3.48; p = 0.000). Conclusion: Early PSA failure following radiation is a poor prognostic factor, as it is associated with increased DM, PCSM, and overall mortality
Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.
A survey of personal dose equivalent for children using optically stimulated luminescent dosemeters has been carried out in the southern Miyagi Prefecture from 1 September 2011, about a half year after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The survey results until November 2013 are summarized in this paper. This is the only survey report in Miyagi Prefecture as any survey of personal dose equivalent was not carried out in this area. Findings of indoor and outdoor staying time (home and school) for children were also reported. It was found that the most time (14 - 15 hours a day) was spent at the inside of their houses for all ages. Children stay at the inside of their houses and school about 21 hours a day in a total. These results are quite important to explain individual dose for children and to take measures to reduce exposure dose as well. (author)
Under the auspices of its EURATOM Research Framework Programmes, the European Commission (EC) has supported the development of the comprehensive decision support system RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents for more than a decade. Many national research programmes, research institutes and industrial collaborators contributed to the project, in particular the German Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (B MU). The RODOS system can be applied to accidental releases into the atmosphere and various aquatic environments within and across Europe. It provides coherent support before, during and after such a release to assist analysis of the situation and decision making about short and long-term countermeasures for mitigating the consequences with respect to health, the environment, and the economy. Appropriate interfaces exist with local and national radiological monitoring data systems, meteorological measurements and forecasts, and for the adaptation to local, regional and national conditions in Europe. Within the European Integrated Project EURANOS of the sixth Framework Programme, the RODOS system is being enhanced, among others, for radiological emergencies such as dirty bombs attacks, transport accidents and satellite crashes by extensions of the nuclide list, the source term characteristics and the atmospheric dispersion model
Ingrid M M Schellens
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.
First, R.M.B.K type reactors are described. Then, safety problems are dealt with reactor control, behavior during transients, normal loss of power and behavior of the reactor in case of leak. A possible scenario of the accident of Tchernobyl is proposed: events before the explosion, possible initiators, possible scenario and events subsequent to the core meltdown (corium-concrete interaction, interaction with the groundwater table). An estimation of the source term is proposed first from the installation characteristics and the supposed scenario of the accident, and from the measurements in Europe; radiological consequences are also estimated. Radioactivity measurements (Europe, Scandinavia, Western Europe, France) are given in tables (meteorological maps and fallouts in Europe). Finally, a description of the site is given
There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B
Bien-Möller, Sandra; Lange, Sandra; Holm, Tobias; Böhm, Andreas; Paland, Heiko; Küpper, Johannes; Herzog, Susann; Weitmann, Kerstin; Havemann, Christoph; Vogelgesang, Silke; Marx, Sascha; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Schroeder, Henry W.S.; Rauch, Bernhard H.
A signaling molecule which is involved in proliferation and migration of malignant cells is the lipid mediator sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). There are hints for a potential role of S1P signaling in malignant brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) which is characterized by a poor prognosis. Therefore, a comprehensive expression analysis of S1P receptors (S1P1-S1P5) and S1P metabolizing enzymes in human GBM (n = 117) compared to healthy brain (n = 10) was performed to evaluate their role for patient's survival. Furthermore, influence of S1P receptor inhibition on proliferation and migration were studied in LN18 GBM cells. Compared to control brain, mRNA levels of S1P1, S1P2, S1P3 and S1P generating sphingosine kinase-1 were elevated in GBM. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated an association between S1P1 and S1P2 with patient's survival times. In vitro, an inhibitory effect of the SphK inhibitor SKI-II on viability of LN18 cells was shown. S1P itself had no effect on viability but stimulated LN18 migration which was blocked by inhibition of S1P1 and S1P2. The participation of S1P1 and S1P2 in LN18 migration was further supported by siRNA-mediated silencing of these receptors. Immunoblots and inhibition experiments suggest an involvement of the PI3-kinase/AKT1 pathway in the chemotactic effect of S1P in LN18 cells. In summary, our data argue for a role of S1P signaling in proliferation and migration of GBM cells. Individual components of the S1P pathway represent prognostic factors for patients with GBM. Perspectively, a selective modulation of S1P receptor subtypes could represent a therapeutic approach for GBM patients and requires further evaluation. PMID:26887055
Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico
The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers. PMID:26888018
An Advanced Real-time Severe Accident Simulation (ARTSAS) train reactor operators and accident management teams for scenarios simulating severe accidents in nuclear reactors. The code has been integrated with the real-time tools and the RAINBO graphic package to provide training and analysis tools on workstations as well as on full-scope simulators. (orig.) (4 refs., 1 fig.)
The authors define a radiation accident as a situation which has led or could have led to the unexpected irradiation of persons or contamination of the environment over and above the levels accepted as safe. Several categories of accidents are distinguished as a function of the consequences to be expected. The suggested system of classifying accidents makes it possible to plan post-accident measures within a single system of 'concentric circles', taking into account at the same time whether it will be possible to carry out the post-accident measures unaided or whether it will be necessary to bring in additional manpower and resources from outside. The authors consider the possibility of countering the effects of accidents as a function of their nature, with reference to the biological, economic and psychological aspects. They evaluate the part played by the health service in planning and carrying out accident prevention measures, and consider the function of radiological units attached to epidemiological health stations ; these units are essentially centres providing for precautionary measures to avert accidents and action to counter their effects. (author)
Full Text Available Objective To investigate the effect of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO on the survival of C57 mice implanted with GL261 gliomas after chemotherapy with nimustine (ACNU. Methods Forty adult male C57 mice were divided into four groups: control, HBO, ACNU and HBO + ACNU randomly by SPSS 10, and planted with GL261 glioma cell suspension in their caudate nucleus to form tumors. From the 7th day after implantation, these groups (except control group began to receive different treatments (HBO, ACNU and HBO + ACNU, in order to observe the effects of different treatments on the survival time of tumor bearing mice. Results There were no significant differences in the tumor volume, mass effect, severe compression of normal brain tissue and midline shift (F = 0.602, P = 0.618. The average survival time was significant with one-way ANOVA (F = 12.177, P = 0.000 and with the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of log-rank (χ2 = 13.604, P = 0.003, while multiple comparisons between groups showed HBO (χ2 = 0.365, P = 0.546 and single?time ACNU (χ2 = 0.884, P = 0.347 had no effect on the survival of mice; the effect of HBO + ACNU (χ2 = 9.962, P = 0.002 was better than that of HBO (χ2 = 6.925, P = 0.008 and single-time ACNU (χ2 = 7.152, P = 0.007. Conclusion The HBO had no effect on survival time of C57 mice with implantation of GL261 and could not promote the growth of the GL261 glioma. However, combining the treatment with ACNU could extend the survival time of tumor bearing mice, suggesting that HBO could strengthen the therapeutic effects of ACNU．
West, J C; Bisordi, J E; Squiers, E C; Latsha, R; Miller, J; Kelley, S E
Within the past year at our transplant center we have had the experience of performing renal allografts in two patients older than 65 years, each of whom had been on hemodialysis more than 10 years. Both resulted in patient mortality within 90 days of transplant (one due to myocardial infarction, the other due to visceral ischemia with infarction). This prompted us to review retrospectively our own data (n = 204) and the national (UNOS) data (n = 10,971) regarding transplant outcome, patient age, and length of time on dialysis prior to renal transplantation. This review revealed that patient mortality after transplant increased with the length of end-stage renal disease (dialysis, regardless of type) independent of age, the greatest mortality occurring within the first 6 months of transplant (and not thereafter); graft survival was similar for all age cohorts analyzed. Our review of the literature reveals a paucity of articles pertaining to post-transplant mortality and length of time on dialysis prior to transplant. Our results indicate the following possible conclusions. (1) The length of time of end-stage renal disease therapy prior to renal transplantation is a significant and independent risk factor for post-transplant mortality. (2) Higher priority should be given to this factor when formulating strategies for allocation of scarce resources. (3) Patients on dialysis for extended periods of time who are elderly may be at particularly high risk. (4) Patients being considered for renal transplant should be informed of their individual risk factors for mortality post-transplant based on length of ESRD therapy. (5) Renal transplantation should be considered as early as possible in patients with ESRD (or imminent ESRD). PMID:14621760
Osler, Merete; Mårtensson, Solvej; Wium-Andersen, Ida Kim; Prescott, Eva; Andersen, Per Kragh; Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Carlsen, Kathrine; Wium-Andersen, Marie Kim; Jørgensen, Martin Balslev
We examined incidence of depression after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and whether the timing of depression onset influenced survival. All first-time hospitalizations for ACS (n = 97,793) identified in the Danish Patient Registry during 2001-2009 and a reference population were followed for depression and mortality via linkage to patient, prescription, and cause-of-death registries until the end of 2012. Incidence of depression (as defined by hospital discharge or antidepressant medication use) and the relationship between depression and mortality were examined using time-to-event models. In total, 19,520 (20.0%) ACS patients experienced depression within 2 years after the event. The adjusted rate ratio for depression in ACS patients compared with the reference population was 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25, 1.30). During 12 years of follow-up, 39,523 (40.4%) ACS patients and 27,931 (28.6%) of the reference population died. ACS patients with recurrent (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.57, 1.67) or new-onset (HR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.60, 1.72) depression had higher mortality rates than patients with no depression. In the reference population, the corresponding relative estimates for recurrent (HR =1.98, 95% CI: 1.92, 2.05) and new-onset (HR = 2.42, 95% CI: 2.31, 2.54) depression were stronger. Depression is common in ACS patients and is associated with increased mortality independently of time of onset, but here the excess mortality associated with depression seemed to be lower in ACS patients than in the reference population. PMID:26740025
Radioactive iodine is released at every atomic-bomb testings and nuclear plants accidents and radioactive iodine is taken up by thyroid glands (internal radiation). In addition to the internal radiation, radioactive fallout causes the external radiation and thyroid glands are known to be sensitive to the external radiation. Furthermore, patients with radiation-induced thyroid disease can survive for a long time regardless of the treatment. The survey of thyroid diseases, therefore, is very sensitive and reliable ways to investigate the effects of radiation caused by atomic bomb explosion, testing and various types of nuclear plants' accidents. Our group from Nagasaki University was asked to investigate the thyroid diseases and jointed to the Sasakawa Project. In order to investigate the effects of radiation on thyroid disease, it is essential 1) to make a correct diagnosis in each subject, 2) to calculate a correct radiation dose in each subject and finally, 3) to find out the correlation between the radiation dose and thyroid diseases including age-, sex- and area-matched controls. We have established 5 centers (1 in Russia, 2 in Belarus, 2 in Ukraine) and supplied the most valuable ultrasonography instruments, commercial kits for the determination of serum free T4 and TSH level and for the autoantibodies, instrument for urinary iodine measurements, syringers, tubes, refrigerators, etc. We visit each center often and asked people at centers to come to Japan for training. Protocol of investigation is essentially the same as that in Nagasaki, and we are planning to investigate more than 50,000 children within 5 years. We are hoping to show a definite conclusion in the near future. Recent articles are also discussed. (author)
Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical staining for CD68 (marker for macrophages), CD83 (marker for mature dendritic cells), and CD8 (marker for cytotoxic T cells) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The numbers of immune cells in tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets, or tumor stroma were counted under a microscope. Correlation of the cell numbers and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (version 13.0). The numbers of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells were significantly more in the tumor stroma than in the tumor islets. The number of macrophages in the tumor islets was positively associated with patient's survival time, whereas the number of macrophages in the tumor stroma was negatively associated with patient's survival time in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The number of mature dendritic cells in the tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets only, or tumor stroma only was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets and stroma was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets only or stroma
After the reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 the time development of environmental contamination and population doses was investigated by several national and international institutions. One of the most comprehensive projects was the German three-year measuring campaign that was started in 1991. Though concerning the ingestion dose in-vivo monitoring proved, that the international annual dose limit of 1 mSv/a had only been exceeded in less than 2% of 317,000 cases, an a priori unexpected upward trend of mean annual doses showed the necessity of further studies to verify the long-term evaluation of the population dose. Several small follow-up studies were initiated in Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. This paper reports especially on a study in Belarus, where two municipalities in Korma county were selected for further investigations: Wornovka, a purely agricultural municipality, and Volincy, an agricultural and forestal municipality. The ground contamination of these two areas was between 300 kBq/m2 and 630 kBq/m2 in 1991. In contrast to Wornovka the municipality of Volincy is surrounded by a contaminated forest area and isolated from the main part of Korma county by a highly contaminated evacuation zone and the river Sosch. Both the internal contamination of people as well as the contamination of the environment and food have been assessed using mobile in-vivo and environmental monitoring systems. Measurements of soil contamination in 1998 show a drop down to a mean of less than 200 kBq/m2 in both municipalities. The evaluation of the internal contamination with time is however quite different: in the year 1992 the mean value at Wornovka was 0.8 kBq, 1.7 kBq in 1997 and 2.8 kBq in autumn 1998. At Volincy the internal contamination increased from 6.1 kBq in 1992 to 14.1 kBq in 1998 and even 51.2 kBq in early summer 1999 corresponding to an internal dose of about 2 mSv/a. Body burdens of up to 660 kBq 137Cs have been observed. Due to the severe economic situation
Erdogan, S.; Yalcin, M.; Yilmaz, M.; Korkmaz Takim, A.
Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.
Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.
In this study, the effectiveness of a 188Re labeled sulfur colloid with two particle size ranges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of this agent on melanoma tumors in mice in terms of animal lifespan. Methods: Two separate group of animals were used for investigating biodistribution and survival time. A total of 188 B16F10-melanoma-bearing BDF1 mice were injected intraperitoneally with 3.7 MBq (0.1mCi)/2mL of radiolabeled sulfur colloid ten days after intraperitoneal inoculation of 5x105 B16F10 melanoma cells/2ml. For group 1, 30 mice were sacrificed at 1, 4, 24, 48 and 72 hours for biodistribution studies. In group 2, 158 mice were divided into 9 groups (n=16∼18/groups)each receiving respectively tumor alone, tumor with normal saline, cold colloid or hot colloid with 16, 23, 31, 46, 62, or 124 MBq activity. Each of these colloid groups was further divided into two groups, one receiving smaller particle sizes (188Re-sulfur colloid is an effective agent in controlling tumor cells in the abdominal cavity in animals
The accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the most severe in the nuclear industry. The accident caused the rapid death of 31 power plant employees and firemen, mainly from acute radiation exposures and burns, and brought about the evacuation of 116,000 people within a few weeks. In addition, about half a million workers and four million members of the public have been exposed, to some extent, to radiation doses resulting from the Chernobyl accident. A large number of radiation measurements have been made since the accident in order to reconstruct the doses received by the most exposed populations. On the basis of currently available information, it appears that: (1) average doses received by clean-up workers from external irradiation decreased with time, being about 300 mGy for the persons who worked in the first three months after the accident, about 170 mGy for the remainder of 1986, 130 mGy in 1987, 30 mGy in 1988, and 15 mGy in 1989; (2) the evacuees received, before evacuation, effective doses averaging 11 mSv for the population of Pripyat, and 18 mSv for the remainder of the population of the 30 km zone, with maximum effective doses ranging up to 380 mSv; and (3) among the populations living in contaminated areas, the highest doses were those delivered to the thyroids of children. Thyroid doses derived from thyroid measurements among Belarussian and Ukrainian children indicate median thyroid doses of about 300 mGy, and more than 1% of the children with thyroid doses in excess of 5000 mGy. A description is provided of the epidemiological studies that the National Cancer Institute has, since 1990, at the request of the Department of Energy, endeavoured to undertake, in cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine, on two possible health effects resulting from the Chernobyl accident: (1, thyroid cancer in children living in contaminated areas during the first few weeks following the accident, and (2) leukaemia among workers involved in clean
James E Stahl
Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant. METHODS: To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches. CONCLUSION: The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.
Yoshimura, Kazuya; Onda, Yuichi; Wakahara, Taeko
The concentration of particulate (137)Cs in paddy fields, which can be a major source of (137)Cs entering the water system, was studied following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. To parametrize the concentration and to estimate the time dependence, paddy fields covering various levels of (137)Cs deposition were investigated over the period 2011-2013 (n = 121). The particulate (137)Cs concentration (kBq kg-SS(-1)) showed a significant correlation with the initial surface deposition density (kBq m(-2)). This suggests that the entrainment coefficient (m(2) kg-SS(-1)), defined as the ratio between the particulate (137)Cs concentration and the initial surface deposition density, is an important parameter when modeling (137)Cs wash-off from paddy fields. The entrainment coefficient decreased with time following a double exponential function. The decrease rate constant of the entrainment coefficient was clearly higher than that reported for other land uses and for river water. The difference in the decrease rates of the entrainment coefficient suggests that paddy fields play a major role in radiocesium migration through the water system. An understanding of the decrease rate of the entrainment coefficient of paddy fields is therefore crucial to understand the migration of radiocesium in the water system. PMID:26999252
Full Text Available Abstract We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV and faecal egg count (FEC of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survival time and the repeated measurements. Such an approach allows to account for the possible association between the survival and repeated measurement processes. The advantages and limitations of the joint modelling are discussed and illustrated using the Diani Estate study data.
Nguti, Rosemary; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Rowlands, John; Renard, Didier; Janssen, Paul
We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV) and faecal egg count (FEC) of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survival time and the repeated measurements. Such an approach allows to account for the possible association between the survival and repeated measurement processes. The advantages and limitations of the joint modelling are discussed and illustrated using the Diani Estate study data. PMID:16194523
Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model
Castro, Edgar Oscar
A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…
To compare survival outcomes for two fractionation schedules of thoracic radiotherapy, both given over 3 weeks, in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). At Radiation Oncology Mater Centre (ROMC) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), patients with LS-SCLC treated with curative intent are given radiotherapy (with concurrent chemotherapy) to a dose of either 40Gy in 15 fractions ('the 40Gy/15⧣group') or 45Gy in 30 fractions ('the 45Gy/30⧣group'). The choice largely depends on institutional preference. Both these schedules are given over 3 weeks, using daily and twice-daily fractionation respectively. The records of all such patients treated from January 2000 to July 2009 were retrospectively reviewed and survival outcomes between the two groups compared. Of 118 eligible patients, there were 38 patients in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 41 patients in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The median relapse-free survival time was 12 months in both groups. Median overall survival was 21 months (95% CI 2–37 months) in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 26 months (95% CI 1–48 months) in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The 5-year overall survival rates were 20% and 25%, respectively (P=0.24). On multivariate analysis, factors influencing overall survival were: whether prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was given (P=0.01) and whether salvage chemotherapy was given at the time of relapse (P=0.057). Given the small sample size, the potential for selection bias and the retrospective nature of our study it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the efficacy of hypofractionated thoracic radiotherapy compared with hyperfractionated accelerated thoracic radiotherapy however hypofractionated radiotherapy may result in equivalent relapse-free survival.
At the request of the Conference of State Radiation Control Program Director's (CRCPD), in November 1976 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission formed a joint Task Force with representatives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to answer a number of questions posed by the States regarding emergency planning. This Task Force held monthly meetings through November 1977. In December 1977 a draft report was prepared for limited distribution for review and comment by selected State and local organizations. The NRC/EPA Task Force deliberations centered on the CRCPD request for '... a determination of the most severe accident basis for which radiological emergency response plans should be developed by offsite agencies...' in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. Federal Interagency guidance to the States in this regard has been that the scoping accident should be the most serious conservatively analyzed accident considered for siting purposes, as exemplified in the Commission's Regulations at 10 CFR Part 100 and the NRC staffs Regulatory Guides 1.3 and 1.4, and as presented in license applicant's Safety Analysis Reports and the USNRC Staffs Safety Evaluation Reports. The draft report of the Task Force amplifies on this recommendation: to present a clearer picture of its import and introduces the concept of protective action zones (PAZs) within which detailed emergency plans should be developed; one zone for the plume exposure pathway and a second, larger zone for contamination pathways. The time dependence of potential releases and atmospheric transport, and important radionuclide groups of possible import are also discussed in the draft Task Force report. A status report regarding this effort, as of June 1978, will be presented. (author)
Kepper, Annelies; Koning, Ina; Vollebergh, Wilma; Monshouwer, Karin
This study investigated the age of onset of substance use among 536 students with mild academic disabilities and 906 students without academic disabilities, and the extent to which emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems explain the differences between these two groups. Using discrete-time survival analysis, the results of this study showed…
Bosch, Jordi; Kemp, William
Osmia cornuta adults require exposure to wintering temperatures followed by incubation in the spring to emerge. We studied winter survival, weight loss, emergence time, and post-emergence longevity in O. cornuta exposed to a variety of pre-wintering and wintering treatments. Few bees emerged after exposure to wintering durations
Hakobyan, Aram P.
In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code . A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a
The estimated energy equivalent of Chernobyl explosion was the 1/150 th of the explosive energy equivalent of atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima; while the devastation that could be caused by the world's stock pile of nuclear weapons, could be equivalent to 160 millions of Chernobyl-like incidents. As known, the number of nuclear weapons is over 50,000 and 2000 nuclear weapons are sufficient to destroy the world. The Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents have been blamed on human factors but also the human element, particularly in the form of psychological stresses on those operating the nuclear weapons, could accidentally bring the world to a nuclear catastrophe. This opinion is encouraged by the London's Sunday Times magazine which gave a graphic description of life inside a nuclear submarine. So, to speak of nuclear reactor accidents and not of nuclear weapons is false security. (author)
Despite his prominence as a leading contemporary social theorist, Zygmunt Bauman's long-term writing on the cultural theory of death and dying has largely been overlooked in the sociological literature of death and dying, particularly in the United States. Bauman uniquely theorizes how we survive death-anxieties today: Contemporary, liquid modern culture has engaged us in ceaseless pursuit of the unattainable consumer sensation of bodily fitness as a way to suppress and thus survive our death-anxieties. Bauman also argues that the prevalence of this cultural formula to survive death-anxieties has simultaneously increased, more than ever before in social history, the volume of individual responsibility for restlessly coping with existential anxieties in the societies of consumers. While unique and insightful, his theoretical argument has a limitation; largely succeeding Freud's classic view of mortality, Bauman's contemporary theory may lead us to neglect potentially important social, cultural, and historical variations in how mortality has been understood. PMID:23057247
Ziya Ekşi; Murat Çakıroğlu
In our country, many people have been seriously injured or died in traffic accidents. Fatal accidents often occur because of not complying with traffic rules or carelessness. Except these driver mistakes, heavy injuries can result in deaths because of emergency aid teams failing to arrive to accident scene in time. In this study, an accident emergency call system is designed to help injured people's treatment as soon as possible by notifying emercengy team automatically in accidents. The desi...
At a meeting of electric utility presidents in October, 1999, the Federation Power Companies (FEPCO) officially decided to establish a Japanese version of WANO, following the JCO criticality accident. The Japanese WANO is expected to be launched by the end of the year: initially, with some 30 private sector companies concerned with nuclear fuel. It is said that the private sector had to make efforts to ensure that safety was the most important value in management policy throughout the industry, and that comprehensive inspections would be implemented. In anything related to nuclear energy, sufficient safety checks are required even for the most seemingly trivial matters. Therefore, the All-Japan Council of Local Governments with Atomic Power Stations has already proposed to the Japanese government that it should enact the special law for nuclear emergency, providing that the unified responsibility for nuclear disaster prevention should be shifted to the national government, since the nuclear disaster was quite special from the viewpoint of its safety regulation and technical aspects. (G.K.)
L. A. GIL-ALANA; Barros, C.P. (Carlos P.); J.R. Faria
This paper analyses airline accidents data from 1927-2006. The fractional integration methodology is adopted. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. Thus, there exists an equilibrium relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accidents events.
Carlos Pestana Barros; João Ricardo Faria; Luis A. Gil-Alana
This paper analyses airline accident data from 1927-2006, through fractional integration. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. There exists a negative relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events.
Poisson, Francois; Gaertner, Jean-claude; Taquet, Marc; Durbec, Jean-Pierre; Bigelow, Keith
Commercial longline fishing data were analyzed and experiments were conducted with gear equipped with hook timers and time-depth recorders in the Reunion Island fishery (21 degrees 5'S lat., 53 degrees 28'E long.) to elucidate direct and indirect effects of the lunar cycle and other operational factors that affect catch rates, catch composition, fish behavior, capture time, and fish survival. Logbook data from 1998 through 2000, comprising 2009 sets, indicated that swordfish (Xiphias gladius)...
Severe accidents are nuclear reactor accidents in which the reactor core is substantially damaged. The report describes severe reactor accident phenomena and their significance for the safety of nuclear power plants. A comprehensive set of phenomena ranging from accident initiation to containment behaviour and containment integrity questions are covered. The report is based on expertise gained in the severe accident assessment projects conducted at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). (49 refs., 32 figs., 12 tabs.)
Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R
The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. PMID:26687540
李二平; 尤宏; 刘宝玲; 冯玉杰
针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准.采用AHP(层次分析法)—综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法.%In recent year, trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents have become a prominent environmental and social problem. Therefore, it is in dire need of researching on early-warning index system and risk grading for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents. The sudden water pollution accidents bring pressure on the environment, change the situation of environment and cause human beings to respond to the accident. Hence, based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, we established a forecasting index system for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents caused by soluble hazardous leakage. Futhernore, in this paper, considering the pollution accidents characters and operability principles, the forecasting index system included twelve (actors from four aspects: water environmental risk sources, health and ecological risks, trans-boundary risks and emergency decision-making commands. Then,weight value of each index of the index system was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) through consulting experts. According to "China environmental emergency contingency plans the trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels: particularly significant tans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅰ) , significant trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅱ), general trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅲ), slightly trans-boundary environmental pollution event(Ⅳ) .At the same time, grading standards of every early warning index have also been obtained by referring to the existing international standards, codes and expert advices , as well as through comparing the hazard Levels of historical environmental events, AHP evaluation and synthetically
This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs.
In cooperation with NRPB (UK), the first version 1.0 of PC COSYMA for use on advanced PCs has been released; during a training course in mid 1993, future users were educated in operating the software. The main frame version of the program package COSYMA has been up-dated with new dose conversion factors and fodd-chain data and was distributed to some 20 institutes in Europe and abroad. The comparative calculations performed within the international OECD(NEA)/CEC intercomparison of accident consequence assessment codes were analysed and documented in three reports. Furtheron, consequence assessments have been performed for the research reactor BER II (two source terms) and documented; the influence on individual doses and emergency actions of inplant accident management measures in future EPRs was quantified; within th scope of a EC/US-study on the external costs of the energy cycle, accident consequences were assessed for three source terms. (orig.)
The Cox proportional hazards model is one of the most popular methods for analyzing survival or failure-time data. The key assumption underlying the Cox model is that of proportional hazards. This assumption may often be violated in practice. Transformation survival models extend the Cox regression methodology to allow for nonproportional hazards. They represent the class of semiparametric linear transformation models, which relates an unknown transformation of the survival time linearly to c...
Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie
Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260
Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of surgical waiting time on clinical outcome in early stage cervical cancer. Methods The cohort consisted of 441 patients diagnosed with stages IA2-IB1cervical cancer who underwent radical hysterectomy and pelvic node dissection. The patients were divided into two groups based on surgical waiting time. The associations between waiting time and other potential prognostic factors with clinical outcome were evaluated. Results The median surgical waiting time was 43 days. Deep stromal invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 4.6; p=0.003) and lymph node metastasis (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.7; p=0.026) were identified as independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival while no prognostic significance of surgical waiting time was found (p=0.677). On multivariate analysis of overall survival (OS), only deep stromal invasion (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.0; p=0.009) and lymph node metastasis (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 8.6; p=0.009) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Although OS showed no significant difference between short (≤8 weeks) and long (>8 weeks) waiting times, multivariate analysis of OS with time-varying effects revealed that a waiting time longer than 8 weeks was associated with poorer long-term survival (after 5 years; HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 9.2; p=0.021). Conclusion A longer surgical waiting time was associated with diminished long-term OS of early stage cervical cancer patients. PMID:26404122
Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks
Z. R. Howard; R. W. Moore; I. B. Zabala Diaz; Kim, W. K.; S. G. Birkhold; J. A. Byrd; L. F. Kubena; Nisbet, D. J.; Ricke, S C
An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis re...
Han, Xu; Small, Dylan S.; Foster, Dean P.; Patel, Vishal
We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and $g...
Zhang Shangfu; Ma Junliang; Pu Qiang; Yu Nanbin; Che Guowei; Liu Lunxu; Dai Fuqiang; Ma Lin; You Zongbing
Abstract Background Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Methods Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSC...
Renard Didier; Rowlands John; Burzykowski Tomasz; Nguti Rosemary; Janssen Paul
Abstract We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV) and faecal egg count (FEC) of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survi...
Burril, Sean E.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Finn, James E.; U.S. Geological Survey; Gillikin, Daniel; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
To better understand and partition mortality among life stages of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), we used inclined-plane traps to monitor the migration of juveniles in the Kwethluk River, Alaska in 2007 and 2008. The migration of juvenile chum salmon peaked in mid-May and catch rates were greatest when water levels were rising. Movement of chum salmon was diurnal with highest catch rates occurring during the hours of low light (that is, 22:00 to 10:00). Trap efficiency ranged from 0.37 to 4.04 percent (overall efficiency = 1.94 percent). Total abundance of juvenile chum salmon was estimated to be 2.0 million fish in 2007 and 2.9 million fish in 2008. On the basis of the estimate of chum salmon females passing the Kwethluk River weir and age-specific fecundity, we estimated the potential egg deposition (PED) upstream of the weir and trapping site. Egg-to-smolt survival, calculated by dividing the estimate of juvenile chum salmon emigrating past the weir site by the estimate of PED, was 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.2 percent in 2008. In addition to chum salmon, Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha), coho salmon (O. kisutch), sockeye salmon (O. nerka), and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha), as well as ten other fish species, were captured in the traps. As with chum salmon, catch of these species increased during periods of increasing discharge and peaked during hours of low light. This study successfully determined the characteristics of juvenile salmon migrations and estimated egg-to-smolt survival for chum salmon. This is the first estimate of survival for any juvenile salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska and demonstrates an approach that can help to partition mortality between freshwater and marine life stages, information critical to understanding the dynamics of salmon in this region.
Brno: Masarykova Univerzita, 2013 - (Pavlík, T.; Májek, O.), s. 44-56 ISBN 978-80-210-6305-1. [Summer School on Computational Biology /9./. Svratka (CZ), 10.09.2013-13.09.2013] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : survival analysis * time-to-event data * censoring process * hazard function * survival time Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science
Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)
accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.
> The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups. PMID:26793946
Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)
A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.
research activities were also conducted for this project. The activities of the 'ASIA' project will extend and build on the work of the 'AMS' project mentioned above. In particular, it will further develop operator aids based on physical models in order to validate Critical Safety Functions (CSF) measurements and understanding accident progression by using search algorithms. The instrument survival in severe accident environments expected for PWRs will also be further assessed, in particular for the neutron flux sensors. These EC-sponsored research projects are proving to be very valuable for the improved understanding of some of the key AM issues mentioned above, and are also contributing to stimulate cooperation among organisations from different EU member states, to avoid duplication of R and D efforts and to use the available resources in an efficient way. The area of AM support can be considered one of the most promising R and D fields in which effective solutions can be reached with reasonable efforts and in a realistic time frame. (authors)
In order to improve the safety of nuclear power plant, operator action should be taken into account during a severe accident. While it takes a long time to simulate the plant transient behavior under a severe accident in comparison with the design based accident, a transient simulator should have both high speed calculation capability and interactive functions to model the operating procedures. PCTRAN has been developing to be a simple simulator by using a personal computer to simulate plant behavior under an accident condition. While currently available means usually take relatively long time to simulate plant behavior, using a current high-powered personal computer (PC), PCTRAN-3/U code is designed to operate at a speed significantly faster than real-time. The author describes some results of PCTRAN application in studying the efficiency of accident management for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) during an severe accident
The purpose of this paper is (a) to define the International Atomic Energy Agency's role in the area of severe accident management training, (b) to briefly describe the status of representative severe accident analysis tools designed to support development and validation of accident management guidelines, and more recently, simulate the accident with sufficient accuracy to support the training of technical support and reactor operator staff, and (c) provide an overview of representative design-specific accident management guidelines and training. Since accident management and the development of accident management validation and training software is a rapidly evolving area, this paper is also intended to evolve as accident management guidelines and training programs are developed to meet different reactor design requirements and individual national requirements
Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed.
Pramukkul, Pensri; Svenkeson, Adam; Grigolini, Paolo
We study the combined effects of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process that generates intermittent events mimicking the behavior of complex systems. By varying the sensitivity level of the detector we move between two forms of complexity, from inverse power law to Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities. Here fluctuations fight against complexity, causing an exponential truncation to the survival probability. We show that fluctuations of relatively weak intensity have a strong effect on the generation of Mittag-Leffler complexity, providing a reason why stretched exponentials are frequently found in nature. Our results afford a more unified picture of complexity resting on the Mittag-Leffler function and encompassing the standard inverse power law definition.
SAMSON, Severe Accident Management System Online Network, is a computational tool used in the event of a nuclear power plant accident by accident managers in the Technical Support Centers (TSC) and Emergency Offsite Facilities (EOF). SAMSON examines over 150 status points monitored by nuclear power plant process computers during a severe accident and makes predictions about when core damage, support plate failure, and reactor vessel failure will occur. These predictions are based on the current state of the plant assuming that all safety equipment not already operating will fail. The status points analyzed include radiation levels, flow rates, pressure levels, temperatures and water levels. SAMSON uses an expert system as well as neural networks trained with the back propagation learning algorithm to make predictions. Previous training on data from accident analysis code allows SAMSON to associate different states in the plant with different times to critical failures. The accidents currently recognized by SAMSON include steam generator tube ruptures (SGTR), with breaks ranging from one tube to eights tubes, and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), with breaks ranging from 0.001 square feet in size to breaks 3.0 square feet. SAMSON contains several neural networks for each accident type and break size, and chooses the correct network after accident classification by in expert system. SAMSON also provides information concerning the status of plant sensors and recovery strategies
After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.
介绍了新一代智能交通信息管理系统,它融合了车辆跟踪检测技术、虚拟线圈技术,极大地满足了高速公路运营管理部门对实时交通事件的监控管理需求.%The paper introduces a new era system UNIVAID-HAS for traffic information intelligence management,system for traffic accidents administration.Its hardware mixes together with the techniques for vehicle tracing detection,fictitious coil techniques and a series of relevant techniques,which greatly meet the requirement of highway running administrative authority for traffic unexpected accidents monitoring timely.
The techniques currently used in off-site consequence modelling are applied to the Chernobyl accident. Firstly, the time dependent spread of radioactive material across the European continent is considered, followed by a preliminary assessment of the dosimetric impact (in terms of collective and mean individual doses) on the various countries of Eastern and Western Europe. The consequences of the accident in the USSR are also discussed. Finally, the likely implications of the Chernobyl event on research in the field of environmental consequence assessment are outlined. (author)
This paper summarizes the status of the reassessment of severe reactor accident source terms, which are defined as the quantity, type, and timing of fission product releases from such accidents. Concentration is on the major results and conclusions of analyses with modern methods for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs), and the special case of containment bypass. Some distinctions are drawn between analyses for PWRs and BWRs. In general, the more the matter is examined, the consequences, or probability of serious consequences, seem to be less. (author)
The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) through its subsidiaries the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) established in 1979 a Group of Experts or Air Cleaning in Accident Situations. This group met seven times to establish a draft report based on its Terms of Reference which were to: 1) review the performance of off-gas cleaning systems in accident conditions; 2) collect information about operating experience with these systems; 3) seek to establish common principles for the design of off-gas systems; 4) review methods used in the different countries for testing filters from the standpoint of accident conditions; and 5) suggest specific mechanisms for improving cooperation, with regard, for example, to filter testing. The conclusions and recommendations of the Group are summarized