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Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Helicopter accident survivability.

    Vyrnwy-Jones, P; Thornton, R

    1984-10-01

    Army Air Corps accident and fatality rates have now reached levels which compare favourably with data from other civilian and military sources. This improvement is the result of enhanced helicopter design and parallel progress in aircrew training. The introduction of new generations of turbine powered rotor craft has largely eliminated mechanical failure as the cause of accident. As a result 75% of Army Air Corps accidents are due to pilot error. This contribution is likely to increase in the future as the pilot's task is made more difficult by the incumberance of personal equipment. Methods whereby occupant protection and aircraft crashworthiness can be improved are reviewed and it is concluded that it would make sound economic sense to implement some of these well proven design features. PMID:6527344

  2. Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

    Chandler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the

  3. Nuclear accidents and thyroid - a stitch in time saves nine!

    The thyroid is a hormone secreting gland located superficially in the neck anterior to the trachea and below the thyroid cartilage. The normal adult gland weighs 15-20 g. Thyroid needs iodine to produce hormones that regulate body's energy and metabolism. It absorbs available iodine from the bloodstream. It cannot distinguish between stable iodine and radioactive iodine. In the event of nuclear accident huge amount of radioactive iodine (Iodine-131) will be released in the atmosphere. This will contaminate soil, plants, vegetables, water bodies etc. People residing in the vicinity will get radioactive iodine by inhalation and consuming contaminated food, water and milk. This radioactive iodine will saturate the thyroid gland. In neonates, infants and young children the thyroid gland is one of the most radiosensitive parts of the body. When thyroid cells absorb too much radioactive iodine, it can cause thyroid cancer over several years after the exposure. Neonates, infants and young children are at highest risk of developing thyroid cancer at a later stage in life. Incidence of thyroid cancer goes up in the native population after the nuclear reactor accident. Most of the thyroid cancers are papillary carcinomas and usually amenable to treatment with 10 year survival rate. It is believed that post nuclear accident carcinomas are more aggressive as compared to the usual papillary ca. Thyroid gland is at greatest risk from radioactive iodine and potassium iodide can protect the gland, if given as per the recommended dose schedule. The Chernobyl reactor accident and events around that time have proven beyond doubt that potassium iodide protects the gland. Thus, its proper use in rescue workers and survivors could effectively protect thyroid gland and prevent thyroid cancer. (author)

  4. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident

  5. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  6. Reaction time of drivers who caused road traffic accidents

    Đurić Predrag

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Material and methods. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. Results. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Discussion. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time, but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Conclusion. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.

  7. Predicting Mean Survival Time from Reported Median Survival Time for Cancer Patients

    Lousdal, Mette L; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Møller, Bjørn;

    2016-01-01

    survival time often is. The empirical relationship between mean and median survival time for cancer patients is not known. AIM: To derive the empirical associations between mean and median survival time across cancer types and to validate this empirical prediction approach and compare it with the standard...... approach of fitting a Weibull distribution. METHODS: We included all patients in Norway diagnosed from 1960 to 1999 with one of the 13 most common solid tumor cancers until emigration, death, or 31 December 2011, whichever came first. Observed median, restricted mean, and mean survival times were obtained...... in subcohorts defined by patients' sex, age, cancer type, and time period of diagnosis, which had nearly complete follow-up. Based on theoretical considerations, we fitted a linear relationship between observed means and medians on the log scale. For validation, we estimated mean survival from medians...

  8. Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

    There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

  9. Time-dependent accident sequences including human actions

    During an accident, transitions between plant states can occur due to operator intervention and the failure of systems while running. The latter cause of transition is much less likely than the first, which includes errors of commission and omission as well as recovery of lost functions. A methodology has been developed to model these transitions in the time domain. As an example, it is applied to the analysis of Three-Mile-Island-type accidents. Statistical evidence is collected and used in assessing the frequency of stuck-open power-operated relief valves at Babcock and Wilcox plants as well as the frequency of misdiagnosis. Statistical data are also used in modeling the timing of operator actions during the accident, i.e., turning off and on the high-pressure injection system and closing the block valves

  10. Study of evacuation times based on general accident history

    The RADTRAN 4 computer code, which calculates estimates of accident dose-risk corresponding to specified transportation scenarios, ascribes doses to potentially exposed members of the public. These persons are modeled as not being evacuated from the affected area for 24 hours following a release of radioactive material. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that this value may be unnecessarily conservative; consequently risk estimates are unnecessarily high. An initial survey of recent trucking accidents, reported in newspapers and other periodicals (1988 through 1994), that involved evacuation of the general population in the affected areas was undertaken to establish the actual time required for such evacuations. Accidents involving hazardous materials other than those which are radioactive (e.g., gasoline, insecticides, other chemicals) but also requiring evacuations of nearby residents were included in the survey. However, the resultant set of sufficiently documented trucking incidents yielded rather sparse data [1]. When the probability density distribution of the truck accident data was compared with that resulting from addition of four other (rail and fixed site) incidents, there was no statistically significant difference between them. Therefore, in order to improve the statistical significance of the data set, i.e., maximize the number of pertinent samples, a search for evacuations resulting from all types of accidents was performed. This resulted in many more references; a set of 48 incidents which could be adequately verified was compiled and merged with the original two data sets for a total of 66 evacuation accounts

  11. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    Tuuli Lahti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.

  12. Timing of core damage states following severe accidents for the CANDU reactor design

    This paper documents the analytical methodology used to evaluate severe accident sequences. The relevant thermal-mechanical phenomena and the mathematical approach used in calculating the timing of the accident progression are described. An example of a specific accident scenario is provided in order to illustrate the application of the severe accident progression methodology. The postulated sever accidents analyzed mainly differ in the timing to reach and progress through each defined 'core damage state'. (author)

  13. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  14. Analysis of survival data having time-dependent covariates.

    Tsujitani, Masaaki; Sakon, Masato

    2009-03-01

    Cox's proportional hazards model has been widely used for the analysis of treatment and prognostic effects with censored survival data. In this paper, we propose a neural network model based on bootstrapping to estimate the survival function and predict the short-term survival at any time during the course of the disease. The bootstrapping for the neural network is introduced when selecting the optimum number of hidden units and testing the goodness-of-fit. The proposed methods are illustrated using data from a long-term study of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). PMID:19179250

  15. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITY TO AVOID A RUNNING-DOW ACCIDENT TIMELY BRAKING

    Sarayev, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.

  16. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    Hyojoon Jeong

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents.

  17. Relationships of survival time, productivity and cause of death with telomere lengths of cows produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer.

    Konishi, Kazuyuki; Yonai, Miharu; Kaneyama, Kanako; Ito, Satoshi; Matsuda, Hideo; Yoshioka, Hajime; Nagai, Takashi; Imai, Kei

    2011-10-01

    The reproductive ability, milk-producing capacity, survival time and relationships of these parameters with telomere length were investigated in 4 groups of cows produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT). Each group was produced using the same donor cells (6 Holstein (1H), 3 Holstein (2H), 4 Jersey (1J) and 5 Japanese Black (1B) cows). As controls, 47 Holstein cows produced by artificial insemination were used. The SCNT cows were artificially inseminated, and multiple deliveries were performed after successive rounds of breeding and conception. No correlation was observed between the telomere length and survival time in the SCNT cows. Causes of death of SCNT cows included accidents, accident-associated infections, inappropriate management, acute mastitis and hypocalcemia. The lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was superior to those of the controls and cell donor cows. All SCNT beef cows with a relatively light burden of lactation remained alive and showed significantly prolonged survival time compared with the cows in the SCNT dairy breeds. These results suggest that the lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was favorable, and their survival time was more strongly influenced by environmental burdens, such as pregnancy, delivery, lactation and feeding management, than by the telomere length. PMID:21666348

  18. A space-time multivariate Bayesian model to analyse road traffic accidents by severity

    Boulieri, A; Liverani, S; Hoogh, K. de; Blangiardo, M.

    2016-01-01

    The paper investigates the dependences between levels of severity of road traffic accidents, accounting at the same time for spatial and temporal correlations. The study analyses road traffic accidents data at ward level in England over the period 2005–2013. We include in our model multivariate spatially structured and unstructured effects to capture the dependences between severities, within a Bayesian hierarchical formulation. We also include a temporal component to capture the time effects...

  19. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    Hyojoon Jeong; Misun Park; Haesun Jeong; Wontae Hwang; Eunhan Kim; Moonhee Han

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radio...

  20. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    Lönnqvist Jouko

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment.

  1. Suitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals

    桑修文; 赵宏伟; 等

    1999-01-01

    Objective To explore sutitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals to decrease adverse effect caused by delayed therapy.Methods:In recent 10 years we have treated 154 cases of maxillofacial trauma by traffic accidents and their data were analyzed.Results:Early surgical therapy could be done in maxillofacial soft tissue trauma.The therapy of returning occlusion relation or temporary fixing was performed in bone fracture before porosis.Conclusions:For maxilloficial trauman and trauman of other parts caused by traffic accidents.early treatment should be done in order to decrease dysfunction and deformity caused by maxillofacial trauma.

  2. Estimation of diver survival time in a lost bell

    Tipton, M.J.; Franks, C. [Surrey Univ., Guildford (United Kingdom); Meneilly, G.S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Medicine; Mekjavic, I.B. [Simon Fraser University, Vancouver (Canada). Dept. of Kinesiology

    1997-04-01

    Mathematical models of the human thermoregulatory system have been used to make predictions of the likely survival of divers in a ``lost bell`` who can be exposed to very low ambient temperatures. The circumstances considered are not the most extreme but those where, partly by shivering, the individual can re-enter thermal balance. The ability accurately to predict the level and duration of metabolic heat production is critical for the estimation of survival time under these conditions. Limitations on the accuracy of current models arise from the lack of precision in modelling the intensity and duration of the metabolic (shivering) response. A different basis for predicting shivering endurance using the time to hypogylcaemia (blood glucose level less than 2.5 mmol/1) is proposed. This leads to predicted survival times ranging from 10 to over 24 hours for those individuals able to stabilise deep body temperature. This seems to be more consistent with the limited experimental data which exists than the 8-9 hours predicted by other models. In order to help maintain blood sugar levels, and hence metabolic heat production, it is recommended that emergency rations within bells should provide 500g of carbohydrate a day. (59 figures; 221 references). (UK)

  3. A Novel Real-Time Video And Data Capture Of Vehicular Accident In Intelligent Transportation Systems

    Fekri M. Abduljalil

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel real-time video and data cap ture of vehicle accident is proposed in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS. The proposed scheme so lves the problem of huge storage needed for recording vehicle accident in the smart vehicle and in the remote ITS server. It works efficiently wit h small amount of storage size and guarantee saving acciden t video in secondary storage. It enables user to capture real-time video and data of running vehicle . It enables user to get vehicle accident video and data anytime anywhere. The scheme is implemented using t estbed and its performance is evaluated. The result s show that the proposed scheme guarantees record the vehicle accident in the ITS server. The proposed scheme has better results in comparison with full t ime video recording scheme.

  4. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  5. Survey of accidents in suburban Tehran and the prediction of future events based on a time-series model

    Heidar Teymuri, Ghulam; Bahmani, Rahman; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Samavati, Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Car accidents are currently a social issue globally because they result in the deaths of many people. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in suburban Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The sample population of this cross-sectional study was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in suburban Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered by the Tehran Emergency Section. In the present study, Minit...

  6. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226Ra + 228Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment

  7. Mobile real-time data monitoring system for nuclear accident emergency

    A mobile real-time data monitoring system is designed for nuclear accident emergency, accomplished real-time data acquisition and transmission. For its special application, the system realized the real-time data acquisition of multi-serial device, GPS orientation and route record of the emergency monitoring vehicle, wireless data communications based on CDMA 1X network, database, etc. It is confirmed, by many times practical test, that such system satisfies the requirements of nuclear emergency monitoring. (authors)

  8. Concept and validation studies of the real-time reactor-accident consequences assessment model ECOSYS

    The Chernobyl accident has demonstrated the urgent need for computer programs for real-time assessment of potential radiological consequences of major reactor accidents and for timely recommendations of useful and cost-efficient counter measures. During the past decade the dynamic radioecological program ECOSYS has been developed for nuclear accident consequence assessment with high resolution in space, time and exposure pathways. The Chernobyl reactor accident leading to relatively high contamination of Southern Germany provided excellent conditions for realistic validation studies of concept, sub-models and parameters of ECOSYS. To this purpose more than 7000 low level and in-situ gamma spectroscopy measurements were performed to study experimentally the behaviour of radionuclides in foodchains and in the urban environment and to compare the results to theoretical predictions of ECOSYS. The results show good agreement in the contamination levels of important food stuffs and in external exposure dose rates from a given surface contamination. Improvements were necessary in the assumptions regarding the food consumption habits which changed considerably - and in the functions describing the weathering off from urban and plant surfaces. The results of this validation study and the concept of the improved computerised model, which has subsequently been converted into a real-time code, are discussed in detail

  9. Mean Exit Time and Survival Probability within the CTRW Formalism

    Montero, M; Montero, Miquel; Masoliver, Jaume

    2006-01-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood t...

  10. Does the influence of risk factors on accident occurrence change over time?

    Elvik, Rune

    2016-06-01

    A large number of studies have been made to assess the relationship between risk factors and accident occurrence. A risk factor is any factor that makes an accident more likely to occur. Very many risk factors have been identified, for example, being under the influence of alcohol while driving, driving on slippery roads, entering complex junctions, or driving in hours of darkness. Few studies have been made to determine whether the associations between risk factors and accident occurrence remain stable over time. This paper presents examples of studies that have replicated estimates of risk. All these studies were made within a given country, using the same method, to ensure that estimates of risk are comparable. The risk factors included in the paper are: daylight, horizontal curves, junctions, road surface conditions, precipitation, drinking and driving and driver age. For all these risk factors, their association with accidents has changed over time, mostly becoming weaker. A protective factor, snow depth, is also included. Its protective effect has become smaller over time. Possible reasons for the weakening influence of risk factors are discussed. PMID:26974026

  11. Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

    Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

    2007-05-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

  12. A procedure to optimize the timing of operator actions of accident management procedures

    The analysis of beyond design basis accidents (BDBA) is an essential component of the safety concept of nuclear power plants (NPP). Goal of the analysis is to achieve a set of actions aimed to prevent the escalation into a severe accident, to mitigate consequences of a severe accident, and to achieve a long term controllable state of the NPP. This paper presents an analytical procedure to optimize the timing of operator interventions. The procedure is demonstrated based on four sets of parameters, first, parameters which define the operator actions are chosen. Second, parameters which define the system availability are chosen. Third, parameters which define in a continuous way the status of the plant are chosen. Finally, one looks for a functional dependency of the accident management (AM)-parameters and the parameters describing the plant status. Once a function could be found, this function is 'optimized' in the sense that the AM-parameters are varied to find a optimal overall condition for the plant. In the first part, the paper presents the analytical procedure in a general way, in the second part, an initiating event is chosen. The procedure is applied to a station black out (SBO) transient, and as operator action secondary side bleed and feed, followed by primary side bleed and feed, is foreseen. As result, the optimal timing to initiate both actions is achieved

  13. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Heydari Seyed Taghi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran

  14. Real time analysis for atmospheric dispersions for Fukushima nuclear accident: Mobile phone based cloud computing assessment

    Highlights: • Possible nuclear accident is simulated for the atmospheric contaminations. • The simulations results give the relative importance of the fallouts. • The cloud computing of IT is performed successfully. • One can prepare for the possible damages of such a NPP accident. • Some other variables can be considered in the modeling. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated by the system dynamics (SD) method. The non-linear complex algorithm could give the information about the hazardous material behavior in the case of nuclear accident. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The event sequence shows the scenario from earthquake to dispersion of the radionuclides. Then, the dispersion reaches two cities in Korea. The importance of the radioactive dispersion is related to the fast and reliable data processing, which could be accomplished by cloud computing concept. The values of multiplications for the wind, plume concentrations, and cloud computing factor are obtained. The highest value is 94.13 in the 206th day for Seoul. In Pusan, the highest value is 15.48 in the 219th day. The source is obtained as dispersion of radionuclide multiplied by 100. The real time safety assessment is accomplished by mobile phone

  15. Calculation and Analysis of Neutron Time-spatial Kinetics in uncontrolled withdrawal accident of regulating rod in CEFR

    In the accident analysis of China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR), uncontrolled withdrawal of regulating rod without scram is a severe accident. When it happens, a large positive reactivity will be introduced and the relative space distribution of neutron flux will change significantly. Thus the analytical result of the accident by point kinetics in the safety analysis of CEFR is inaccurate. In this paper, focused on neutronics behavior, the accident is re-evaluated with NAS-K code. The NAS-K code is a CEFR-self-developed three-dimensional space-time-dependent neutron kinetics code for sodium cooled fast reactors, including thermal feedback and various kinds of reactivity feedback effects. The calculation results indicate that the maximum temperatures of fuel and cladding do not exceed the limits specified by acceptance criteria corresponding to design basis accident for CEFR, which means the accident will not cause damage to CEFR core. (author)

  16. Chronobiologic perspectives of black time--Accident risk is greatest at night: An opinion paper.

    Reinberg, Alain; Smolensky, Michael H; Riedel, Marc; Touitou, Yvan; Le Floc'h, Nadine; Clarisse, René; Marlot, Michel; Berrez, Stéphane; Pelisse, Didier; Mauvieux, Benoît

    2015-08-01

    Simon Folkard in 1997 introduced the phrase black time to draw attention to the fact that the risk of driving accidents (DA) is greater during the night than day in usually diurnally active persons. The 24 h temporal pattern in DA entails circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleep propensity, cognitive and physical performance, and behavior that are controlled, at least in part, by endogenous clocks. This opinion paper extends the concept of black time to reports of excess nighttime accidents and injuries of workers and nocturnal occurrence of certain man-caused catastrophes. We explore the chronobiology of work-related black time accidents and injuries taking into account laboratory and field investigations describing, respectively, circadian rhythms in cognitive performance and errors and mistakes by employees in the conduct of routine occupational tasks. Additionally, we present results of studies pertaining to 24 h patterns of both the number and relative risk (number of events per h/number of workers exposed per h) of work-related accidents (WRA) and injuries (WRI) as well as indices of performance and alertness of a self-selected homogenous survivor cohort of French firefighters (FFs) to explore two possible explanations of black time, namely, 24 h variation in sleep propensity/drossiness characterized by a nocturnal peak and circadian rhythms in cognitive performance characterized by a nocturnal trough. We propose the 24 h pattern of WRA and WRI, particularly of FFs and other highly skilled self-selected cohorts, is more strongly linked to circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleepiness than cognitive performance. Other possible explanations--suppressed expression of circadian rhythms and/or unmasking of ultradian periodicities in cognitive performance in specific circumstances, e.g., highly stressful work, competitive, or life-threatening settings, are also discussed. PMID:26181466

  17. Improving lung cancer survival; time to move on

    Heuvers Marlies E

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the past decades, numerous efforts have been made to decrease the death rate among lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, the improvement in long-term survival has been limited and lung cancer is still a devastating disease. Discussion With this article we would like to point out that survival of lung cancer could be strongly improved by controlling two pivotal prognostic factors: stage and treatment. This is corresponding with recent reports that show a decrease in lung cancer mortality by screening programs. In addition, modulation of the patient’s immune system by immunotherapy either as monotherapy or combined with conventional cancer treatments offers the prospect of tailoring treatments much more precisely and has also been shown to lead to a better response to treatment and overall survival of non-small cell lung cancer patients. Summary Since only small improvements in survival can be expected in advanced disease with the use of conventional therapies, more research should be focused on lung cancer screening programs and patient tailored immunotherapy with or without conventional therapies. If these approaches are clinically combined in a standard multidisciplinary policy we might be able to advance the survival of patients with lung cancer.

  18. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Seyed Taghi Heydari; Amin Hoseinzadeh; Yaser Sarikhani; Arya Hedjazi; Mohammad Zarenezhad; Ghasem Moafian; Mohammad Reza Aghabeigi

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Fars Province of Iran.Methods:This study was conducted in Fars Province,Iran from November 22,2009 to November 21,2011.Victims'information consisted of age,sex,death toll involving drivers or passengers of cars,motorcycles and pedestrians,and site of injury etc.Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day,season of the year,lighting condition including sunrise,sunset,daytime and nighttime.Results:Atotal of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males,and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1) were studied regarding their autopsy records.There was a steady increase in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59.The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13,95% CI 1.85-2.44).The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer.Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59and midnight to 3:59,whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59.Conclusion:The high mortality rate ofRTAis a major public health problem in Fars Province.Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths.

  19. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  20. Semiparametric Methods to Contrast Gap Time Survival Functions: Application to Repeat Kidney Transplantation

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-ident...

  1. Real-time EEG-based detection of fatigue driving danger for accident prediction.

    Wang, Hong; Zhang, Chi; Shi, Tianwei; Wang, Fuwang; Ma, Shujun

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a real-time electroencephalogram (EEG)-based detection method of the potential danger during fatigue driving. To determine driver fatigue in real time, wavelet entropy with a sliding window and pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) were used to process the EEG signals in the visual area (the main information input route). To detect the fatigue danger, the neural mechanism of driver fatigue was analyzed. The functional brain networks were employed to track the fatigue impact on processing capacity of brain. The results show the overall functional connectivity of the subjects is weakened after long time driving tasks. The regularity is summarized as the fatigue convergence phenomenon. Based on the fatigue convergence phenomenon, we combined both the input and global synchronizations of brain together to calculate the residual amount of the information processing capacity of brain to obtain the dangerous points in real time. Finally, the danger detection system of the driver fatigue based on the neural mechanism was validated using accident EEG. The time distributions of the output danger points of the system have a good agreement with those of the real accident points. PMID:25541095

  2. Development of an Integrated Simulator and Real Time Information System for Training in Severe Accidents

    As part of a Research and Development project jointly undertaken by Nuclenor S.A. and the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science of the University of Cantabria, at the beginning of 1995 a plant transient and accident simulator was released, based on the MAAP computer code, which is able to analyse emergency situations beyond the design basis. The use of this tool at Sta. Maria de Garona NPP has significantly improved the operators and support personnel training on Emergency Procedures. This simulator has an interactive graphic interface to control the simulation itself and the safeguard systems. It also allows the link with the SPDS. The simulator is designed in such a way that several users can interact simultaneously on the process. It currently consists of six monitors assigned both to control and to visualise systems. The instructor can provoke anomalies before and during the training exercises. The operators have several consoles (5) from which they can interact in real time to control operations and resolve the conflictive situations. It is important to note that the use of a common tool for training and safety analysis favors the collaboration of the plant and engineering personnel responsible for these two areas. An additional capacity already incorporated into the simulator is the possibility of visualising the real time plant data from the SCADA system. The same screens developed for the training simulator are used for this purpose and vice versa. This capacity can be achieved from any computer station at the network. The paper describes the following applications and benefits of the system: - The simulator is used for periodic retraining of Plant operators on abnormal and emergency operating procedures. Its use has facilitated the collaboration of the operator on the accident sequence analysis part of the PSA. Some human reliability aspects, especially those relating to operator response are better analysed with the help of the simulator

  3. Study of cross-correlation in a self-affine time series of taxi accidents

    Zebende, G. F.; da Silva, P. A.; Machado Filho, A.

    2011-05-01

    We study in this paper the cross-correlation between self-affine time series of real variables recorded simultaneously in cases of taxi accidents. For this purpose, we apply the DCCA method and show that the cross-correlation can be divided into three distinct groups, if we look for the detrended covariance function, i.e., long-range cross-correlations, short-range cross-correlations and no cross-correlations. Finally, it will be seen that the detrended covariance function is robust, if compared with other methods, in identifying these types of cross-correlations.

  4. BY USING BLUETOOTH TECHNOLOGY AUTOMATIC VEHICLE ACCIDENT DETECTION & LOCALIZATION OF AUTOMOBILE

    Nitin Thakre; Nitin Raut; Shyam Dubey; Abdulla Shaikh

    2014-01-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of fatalities in the world. An important indicator of survival rates after an accident is the time between the accident and when emergency medical personnel are dispatched to the location. Eliminating the time between when an accident occurs and when first responders are dispatched to the location decreases mortality rates by 6%. We propose an Android based application that location of the vehicle through an positive detectio...

  5. Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-06-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. PMID:26501480

  6. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  7. A discrete-time Multiple Event Process Survival Mixture (MEPSUM) model.

    Dean, Danielle O; Bauer, Daniel J; Shanahan, Michael J

    2014-06-01

    Traditional survival analysis was developed to investigate the occurrence and timing of a single event, but researchers have recently begun to ask questions about the order and timing of multiple events. A multiple event process survival mixture model is developed here to analyze nonrepeatable events measured in discrete-time that may occur at the same point in time. Building on both traditional univariate survival analysis and univariate survival mixture analysis, the model approximates the underlying multivariate distribution of hazard functions via a discrete-point finite mixture in which the mixing components represent prototypical patterns of event occurrence. The model is applied in an empirical analysis concerning transitions to adulthood, where the events under study include parenthood, marriage, beginning full-time work, and obtaining a college degree. Promising opportunities, as well as possible limitations of the model and future directions for research, are discussed. PMID:24079930

  8. Aeromedical Lessons Learned from the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

    Chandler, Mike

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an update on the Columbia accident response presented in 2005 with additional information that was not available at that time. It will provide information on the following topics: (1) medical response and Search and Rescue, (2) medico-legal issues associated with the accident, (3) the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team Report published in 2008, and (4) future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training.

  9. Survival is linked with reaction time and spatial memory in African striped mice.

    Maille, Audrey; Schradin, Carsten

    2016-08-01

    Studying the association between fitness and cognition in free-living animals is a fundamental step in the elucidation of the evolution of cognition. We assessed whether survival until the onset of the breeding season was related to reaction time or spatial memory in the African striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio, a rodent that has to survive summer drought before breeding. We tested a total of 90 individuals at the beginning of summer. Female survival was related to a faster response to predation stimuli. Male survival increased with greater spatial memory, possibly because it is important for males to remember the configuration of the environment during dispersal. This study revealed that individual variation in reaction time and spatial memory can be related to survival probability, which is important for understanding the selection pressures acting on basic cognitive traits. PMID:27484646

  10. Intelligent GIS-Based Road Accident Analysis and Real-Time Monitoring Automated System using WiMAX/GPRS

    Ahmad Rodzi Mahmud

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has been a big concern for many people and government to reduce the amount of road accident specially in Malaysia since it could be a big threat to this country. Malaysian government has spent millions of money in order to reduce the number of accident occurrence through several modes of campaign. Unfortunately, from years to years the number keeps increasing. The lack of a comprehensive accident recording and analysis system in Malaysia can be effective in these kinds of problems. By making use of IRAS (Intelligent Road Accident System, the police would be control and manage whole accident events as a real-time monitoring system. This system exploits WiMAX and GPRS communications to connect to the server for transfer the specific data to the data center. This system can be used for a comprehensive intelligent GIS-based solution for accident analysis and management. The system is developed based on object and aspect oriented software design such as .NET technology.

  11. Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

    Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.

    2009-01-01

    In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

  12. On a link between a species survival time in an evolution model and the Bessel distributions

    Guiol, Herve; Schinazi, Rinaldo B

    2011-01-01

    We consider a stochastic model for species evolution. A new species is born at rate lambda and a species dies at rate mu. A random number, sampled from a given distribution F, is associated with each new species at the time of birth. Every time there is a death event, the species that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We consider the (random) survival time of a species with a given fitness f. We show that the survival time distribution depends crucially on whether ff_c where f_c is a critical fitness that is computed explicitly.

  13. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  14. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    Hui GE

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time was analyzed. Results There was significant difference in ventilation function and diffusing capacity between in lung cancer group and control group. Vital capacity (VC, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC, peak expiratory flow (PEF, peak expiratory flow% (PEF%, maximal ventilatory volume (MVV were positively correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer (r=0.29, 0.28, 0.28, 0.27, 0.26, 0.28, P<0.05, residual volume/total lung capacity was negatively correlated with survival time (r=-0.31, P<0.05. Conclusion The lung function decreases in the patients with lung cancer. VC, FEV1, FVC, PEF, PEF%, MVV, residual volume/total lung capacity were correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. The pulmonary function indexs were important marker of prognosis in patients with lung cancer.

  15. Basic study on the nuclear reactor plant action at the time of a severe accident occurrence

    The reexamination argument on nuclear power has arisen after the Fukushima accident. When nuclear power generation has been stopped, it is forced however, to depend on thermal power generation. In that case, the two serious problems of a jump of fuel cost and of global warming issue, that is CO2 emission issue, will be faced. So, it is still required for nuclear power generation to take an important part as basic energy source in our country for years to come. In this paper, we will describe the outline of the severe accident such as a SBO (Station Blackout) accident which happened in Fukushima and also discuss the safety assessment for the plant action when a SBO accident occurred in the case of PWR power plant through the simulation experiments using a PWR power plant simulator. As a result, fuel and fuel cladding temperatures rose abruptly about 3 hours after the SBO accident occurrence for loss of nuclear cooling functions, and it was also shown that cladding tubes damages begin. Conversely, even if a SBO accident should have happened, when power supply restoration was possible within about 3 hours, it was shown that a nuclear reactor can be changed into a cold shutdown state. (author)

  16. Effect of spaying and timing of spaying on survival of dogs with mammary carcinoma.

    Sorenmo, K U; Shofer, F S; Goldschmidt, M H

    2000-01-01

    The risk of developing mammary gland tumors in dogs is significantly decreased by ovariohysterectomy at an early age. However, previous studies have not found a benefit to ovariohysterectomy concurrent with tumor removal in dogs with established mammary gland tumors, suggesting that the progression of these tumors is independent of continued estrogen stimulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of spaying and of the timing of spaying on survival in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma. Signalment, spay status and spay age, tumor characteristics, treatment. survival, and cause of death of 137 dogs with mammary gland carcinoma were analyzed. The dogs were classified into 3 groups according to spay status and spay time: intact dogs, dogs spayed less than 2 years before tumor surgery (SPAY 1), and dogs spayed more than 2 years before their tumor surgery (SPAY 2). Dogs in the SPAY 1 group lived significantly longer than dogs in SPAY 2 and intact dogs (median survival of 755 days, versus 301 and 286 days, respectively, P = .02 and .03). After adjusting for differences between the spay groups with regard to age, histologic differentiation, and vascular invasion, SPAY 1 dogs survived 45% longer compared to dogs that were either intact or in the SPAY 2 group (RR = .55; 95% CI .32-.93; P = .03). This study reveals ovariohysterectomy to be an effective adjunct to tumor removal in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma and that the timing of ovariohysterectomy is important in influencing survival. PMID:10830539

  17. Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) - a real time model for accidental releases

    The model: Several Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) in Oslo to provide decision makers and Government officials with real-time tool for simulating large accidental releases of radioactivity from nuclear power plants or other sources. SNAP is developed in the Lagrangian framework in which atmospheric transport of radioactive pollutants is simulated by emitting a large number of particles from the source. The main advantage of the Lagrangian approach is a possibility of precise parameterization of advection processes, especially close to the source. SNAP can be used to predict the transport and deposition of a radioactive cloud in e future (up to 48 hours, in the present version) or to analyze the behavior of the cloud in the past. It is also possible to run the model in the mixed mode (partly analysis and partly forecast). In the routine run we assume unit (1 g s-1) emission in each of three classes. This assumption is very convenient for the main user of the model output in case of emergency: Norwegian Radiation Protection Agency. Due to linearity of the model equations, user can test different emission scenarios as a post processing task by assigning different weights to concentration and deposition fields corresponding to each of three emission classes. SNAP is fully operational and can be run by the meteorologist on duty at any time. The output from SNAP has two forms: First on the maps of Europe, or selected parts of Europe, individual particles are shown during the simulation period. Second, immediately after the simulation, concentration/deposition fields can be shown every three hours of the simulation period as isoline maps for each emission class. In addition, concentration and deposition maps, as well as some meteorological data, are stored on a public accessible disk for further processing by the model users

  18. Discrete-Time Survival Factor Mixture Analysis for Low-Frequency Recurrent Event Histories

    Masyn, Katherine E.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the latent class analysis framework for modeling single event discrete-time survival data is extended to low-frequency recurrent event histories. A partial gap time model, parameterized as a restricted factor mixture model, is presented and illustrated using juvenile offending data. This model accommodates event-specific baseline hazard probabilities and covariate effects; event recurrences within a single time period; and accounts for within- and between-su...

  19. Mortality and Seedling Survival of Three Salt Marshes Species as Influenced by Timing of Precipitation

    The potential of mortality and seedling survival of three salt marshes species (Atriplex farinose, Aeleuropus brevifolius, and Juncus rigidus) as affected by timing of precipitation were measured. Three separate (14)-day experiments were conducted using (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5) days dry. The number of emerging seedlings growing from (100) seeds placed in sand media in small plastic pots were counted daily. A total of (50%) to (70%) of Juncus seeds emerged in the initial wet period, but over (50%) of the seedlings died in the following (5) days dry period, resulting in less than a (35%) survival rate. The Atriplex was slower to germinate and seedling survival rate resulted (40%)-(60%) in Aeluropus brevifolius. The (1) and (2) days wet sequences the maximum until the final rewet period. The information offers the possibility of incorporating the probabilistic aspects of timing precipitation and soil water relations into a description of the seedling environment. (author)

  20. TRACE - a time-dependent and realistic accident consequence evaluation module for use in emergency response planning

    Following the identification of an off-normal condition at nuclear power plant, the plant operators have one over-riding responsibility: protection of the offsite population. In discharging this responsibility, the operators utilize a set of emergency operating procdedures. A. Immediately following the identification of the off-normal condition, the operators primary actions are focused on establishing a safe, stable shutdown condition for the reactor. B. The plant condition is categorized according to the perceived severity of the event based on a broad overview of the plant conditions, and the information is transmitted to appropriate governmental authorities. C. Estimations of potential environmental releases of radioactivity, based on design basis accident results, are performed and transmitted to the governmental authorities. The TRACE package was developed to provide the operators with the tools to make realistic predictions of the range of possible releases of radioactivity to the environment during all phases of an off-normal condition, including severe accident situations. The TRACE package provides a means to project, during the early stages of an accident, the potential range of possible fission product releases on a realistic and time-dependent basis. The TRACE package also provides a means to update previous evaluations of the potential range of radioactivity releases as plant conditions change or a new information (on accident sequence or plant parameters) becomes available. (orig./HSCH)

  1. Time to treatment as a quality metric in lung cancer: Staging studies, time to treatment, and patient survival

    Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis

  2. Recidivism and Survival Time: Racial Disparity among Jail Ex-Inmates

    Jung, Hyunzee; Spjeldnes, Solveig; Yamatani, Hide

    2010-01-01

    Incarcerated men, most of whom are recidivists, are disproportionately black. Much literature about prison ex-inmates reports on this disparity, yet little is known about racial disparity in recidivism rates among jail ex-inmates. This study examined recidivism rates and survival time (period from release date to rearrest) among male ex-inmates…

  3. A Parallelized Pumpless Artificial Placenta System Significantly Prolonged Survival Time in a Preterm Lamb Model.

    Miura, Yuichiro; Matsuda, Tadashi; Usuda, Haruo; Watanabe, Shimpei; Kitanishi, Ryuta; Saito, Masatoshi; Hanita, Takushi; Kobayashi, Yoshiyasu

    2016-05-01

    An artificial placenta (AP) is an arterio-venous extracorporeal life support system that is connected to the fetal circulation via the umbilical vasculature. Previously, we published an article describing a pumpless AP system with a small priming volume. We subsequently developed a parallelized system, hypothesizing that the reduced circuit resistance conveyed by this modification would enable healthy fetal survival time to be prolonged. We conducted experiments using a premature lamb model to test this hypothesis. As a result, the fetal survival period was significantly prolonged (60.4 ± 3.8 vs. 18.2 ± 3.2 h, P Fetal physiological parameters remained stable until the conclusion of the experiments. In summary, parallelization of the AP system was associated with reduced circuit resistance and lactate levels and allowed preterm lamb fetuses to survive for a significantly longer period when compared with previous studies. PMID:26644374

  4. Survival times of women radium dial workers first exposed before 1930

    Life table methods were applied to survival data on U.S. women radium dial workers in order to compare observed and expected deaths as a function of time after exposure to radium. The study population consisted of 1235 workers employed in the industry before 1930 for whom age and year of death, withdrawal or loss from the study were known. Expected deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for U.S. white females. The closing year for analysis was 1976, so observation times of 45 to 60 years were possible. For all causes, 529 deaths before age 85 were observed versus 461 expected, and the cumulative survival of the population was significantly less than expected at 10 and more years after first employment. Estimates were made of the net survival probabilities after elimination of risk due to the well-known radium-related malignancies, i.e. bone sarcomas and carcinomas of the paranasal sinuses and the mastoid air cells. There were 455 observed deaths from other causes versus 460 expected, and there was no significant difference between observed and expected cumulative net survival at one-year intervals from zero to 59 years after first employment. These findings indicate that only the known radium-related malignancies contributed significantly to life shortening of the exposed population as a whole, but the presence of other radium-related causes of death may yet be detectable by examination of specific risks as a function of dose. (author)

  5. Timing and drivers of management control systems in joint ventures: The effect on JV survival

    Marcela Porporato

    2009-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the timing of management control systems (MCS) implementations, their drivers and effect on joint venture (JV) survival. Design/methodology/approach – This paper draws on case study data (archival data, interviews, and site visits) collected at three JVs in the automotive industry. Contingency theory is used to define Cartesian relationships. Findings – A description of the timing and reasons for MCS implementation in JVs is provided. Initial...

  6. Down syndrome time-clustering in January 1987 in Belarus: link with the Chernobyl accident? : Down syndrome after Chernobyl

    Zatsepin, Ivan; VERGER, Pierre; Robert-Gnansia, Elisabeth; Gagnière, Bertrand; Tirmarche, Margot; Khmel, Rostislav; Babicheva, Irina; Lazjuk, Gennady

    2007-01-01

    International audience The Chernobyl accident (April 26, 1986) exposed a large part of the Belarus population to ionizing radiation. We analyzed the time trends of Down syndrome (DS) in Belarus to evaluate whether either brief exposure at high dose rates during the plume passage or continuous exposure at low doses and dose rates of the residents of contaminated areas had any detectable impact on DS prevalence at birth. DS data came from the Belarus National Registry of Congenital Malformat...

  7. Pancreatic cancer: Wait times from presentation to treatment and survival in a population-based study.

    Jooste, Valérie; Dejardin, Olivier; Bouvier, Véronique; Arveux, Patrick; Maynadie, Marc; Launoy, Guy; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

    2016-09-01

    Pancreatic survival is one of the worst in oncology. To what extent wait times affect outcomes in unknown No population-based study has previously explored patient and treatment delays among individuals with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to estimate patient and treatment delays in patients with pancreatic cancer and to measure their association with survival in a nonselected population. All patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer for the first time between 2009 and 2011 and registered in two French digestive cancer registries were included. Patient delay (time from onset of symptoms until the first consultation categorized into <1 or ≥1 month), and treatment delay (time between the first consultation and treatment categorized into less or more than 29 days, the median time) were collected. Overall delay was used to test associations between survival and the timeliness of care by combining patient delay and treatment delay. Patient delay was longer than 1 month in 46% of patients. A patient delay longer than one month was associated with the absence of jaundice (p < 0.001) and the presence of metastasis (p = 0.003). After adjusting for other covariates, such as symptoms and treatment, the presence of metastasis was negatively associated with treatment delay longer than 29 days (p = 0.025). After adjustment for other covariates, especially metastatic dissemination and the result of the resection, overall delay was not significantly associated with prognosis. We found little evidence to suggest that timely care was associated with the survival of patients. PMID:27130333

  8. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  9. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  10. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    Ge, Hui; Jiang, Zhenghua; Huang, Qian; Muyun ZHU; Yang, Jie

    2013-01-01

    Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and surv...

  11. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  12. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studi...

  13. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...

  14. Effectiveness of DMSO and cystein survival time and testes weight on white rats by gamma irradiation

    An investigation on the effectiveness of two radioprotectors (DMSO and cystein) separately and in combination to suppress radiation effect (survival time and testes weight) has been carries out. One hundred and forty four male rats 2 mounths 21 days old and of 142.549+/-3.588 grams body weight were divided into four groups and each group was injected intramusculary with 1.4 ml aquabides 0.4 ml DMSO, 120 mg cystein and DMSO+cystein (0.4+120 mg). Each group was divided into six subgroups and irradiated with gamma rays from a 60 Co gamma cell-220 machine with doses of 0.0; 0.5; 1.0; 2.0; 4.0; and 6.0 Gy, respectively. On days 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 post irradiation, the rats were killed for observations of the testes weight and the survival time. The results showed that with increasing dose of irradiation, testes weight decreased, and 6 Gy caused a descrease up to 40% on day 30 post irradiation. The administration of radioprotectors could lessen the decrease of testes weight in which combined radioprotectors was most effective. Also, combines radioprotectors were most effective in prolonging the survival time of rats irradiated with dose up to 6 Gy. (authors), 6 refs.; 2 tabs.; 1 fig

  15. Effects of social isolation stress on immune response and survival time of mouse with liver cancer

    Hui Liu; Zhun Wang

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the effects of isolation stress on mouse with liver cancer and possible associated mechanisms.METHODS: Transplantable murine hepatoma22 (H22) model was used to evaluate the effects of social isolation stress on murine liver cancer. Mice were immunized with sheep red blood cell (SRBC) and intraperitoneally inoculated with H22 cell, then divided into two groups, one reared individually as group (Ⅰ) and the other reared in groups as group (G). Titer of antibody to SRBC and interleukin 2 (IL-2) in serum was monitored. The survival time of mouse with liver cancer was observed.RESULTS: The titer of antibody to SRBC in group (G) was 1:24.5 and that in group (Ⅰ) was 1:11.2. There was a significant difference between these two groups (t = 2.60,P = 0.02). A significant difference in IL-2 concentration was observed between group (G) (39.6 ng/L) and group (Ⅰ) (47.1 ng/L, t= 2.14, P = 0.046). The survival time in group (G) (16.5 d) was markedly longer than that in group (Ⅰ) (13.2 d, t = 3.46, P = 0.002).CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that survival time of the mouse bearing H22 tumor is affected by the social isolation stress and the associated mechanism may be the immunological changes under the social isolation stress.

  16. Macroscopic and histopathological aspects of chemical damage to human tissues depending on the survival time.

    Amadasi, Alberto; Gentile, Guendalina; Rancati, Alessandra; Zoja, Riccardo

    2016-05-01

    The ingestion of corrosive substances is a widely treated topic in clinical and forensic practice, as an accidental event or as a consequence of voluntary assumption to commit suicide. However, thorough macroscopic and microscopic surveys focused on the correlation between the ingestion of the substance and different survival times have never been performed. Are the ingestion and the metabolism of the substance within the human tissues still recognizable? How could it be related to death? The study concerns a retrospective analysis on ten cases (two accidental, eight suicides) of lethal ingestion of different types of liquid caustic substances, without instant death and survival times ranging from 12 h to 6 months. For each case, a full autopsy and histological examination of the internal organs were performed. The results showed that the early direct effect of the substances is exerted mainly on the gastrointestinal tract, but as survival time increased, the metabolism of the substance exerted its effects in different target organs. When the cause of death was not directly linkable to the ingestion of the substance (i.e., related to cardiac stress, electrolyte disorders, pneumonia) and macroscopic findings were nonspecific, histological analyses allowed for providing crucial elements towards a link between death and assumption of the substance. PMID:26384506

  17. On the Estimation of Expected Survival Time of AIDS Patients Undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy Using Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model

    Gurprit GROVER

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The progression of HIV infection depends not only on the combination of drugs and adherence to the Anti Retroviral therapy (ART, but also on various other factors. The survival of an HIV patient depends on interaction of these factors with the therapy. Material and Methods: The parametric approach with and without covariates have been used to analyze the survival data of HIV/AIDS patients. When covariates are not considered, survival distributions are fitted and best one chosen. The inclusion of covariates is analyzed using Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model (CGPR. Results: For a retrospective right censored data of 1689 HIV/AIDS patients undergoing ART at the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India, appropriate survival distributions in the absence of covariates are fitted. Using the Akaike Information Criterion, Gamma distribution is found to be the distribution of best fit. Assuming Gamma survival distribution with right censored survival time data, the mean survival time of AIDS patients using the method of maximum likelihood is found to be 11.14 years. Also, CGPR model for estimating the survival time while accounting for the impact of cofactors is used for the first time on the AIDS dataset. Conclusion: The advantage of using a CGPR model over the gamma right censored distribution is that the mean survival time of the AIDS patient undergoing ART can be estimated in the presence of significant prognostic factors. Using this model, age, gender, smoking status, alcoholism, WHO staging, improvement in CD4 count, opportunistic infections, number of visits and weight at initiation of ART are identified as significant prognostic factors effecting the survival time. On averaging the predicted survival times based on CGPR model, the mean survival time of AIDS patients on ART is found to be 12.12 years.

  18. Traffic Congestion and Accidents

    Schrage, Andrea

    2006-01-01

    Obstructions caused by accidents can trigger or exacerbate traffic congestion. This paper derives the efficient traffic pattern for a rush hour with congestion and accidents and the corresponding road toll. Compared to the model without accidents, where the toll equals external costs imposed on drivers using the road at the same time, a new insight arises: An optimal toll also internalizes the expected increase in future congestion costs. Since accidents affect more drivers if traffic volumes...

  19. Survival analysis of car travel time near a bus stop in developing countries

    YANG XiaoBao; GAO ZiYou; GUO HongWei; HUAN Mei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an important investigation into car travel time affected by mixed traffic flow near a bus stop on the basis of survival analysis theory.Travel time data associated with mixed traffic characteristics near a bus stop were collected by video cameras.A hazard-based duration model was introduced to analyze the effects of mixed traffic flow on car travel time.The results indicate that mixed traffic flow impacts car travel time significantly.And the presence of bus berthing violation would delay car travel time.The proposed model can be used to forecast temporal shifts in car travel time due to changes in mixed traffic flow.The influential factors related to mixed traffic flow should be given full consideration in the planning and designing of bus stops in developing countries.

  20. Egg Developmental Time and Survival of Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Under Different Temperatures.

    Alonso, M A; Souza, C M; Linhares, A X; Thyssen, P J

    2015-07-01

    Chrysomya megacephala (F.) and Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are considered of forensic, medical, and veterinary importance in Brazil because of their necrophagous and synanthropic behaviour. The development of flies can be influenced by temperature, and species from the same genus usually have different responses to external variables. The egg development of blow fly can be a useful complementary technique to estimate the minimum postmortem interval. Thus, this study aimed to compare the egg developmental time and survival of C. megacephala and C. putoria at different temperatures to determine the optimal temperature for egg development and the linear regression for developmental time and temperature, thereby determining the minimum threshold (t) and thermal summation constant (K) for each species. Adults of both species were collected in the region of Campinas city, São Paulo state, Brazil. Eggs were incubated at eight constant temperatures between 05 ± 1°C and 35 ± 1°C and the egg developmental time and survival were evaluated. There was no egg survival at 5 and 10°C. The K for C. megacephala and C. putoria were 179.41 HD and 189.94 HD, respectively. The regression slopes and t (10°C) were similar for both species. The optimal temperature for egg survival was between 25 and 35°C, for C. megacephala and 20 and 30°C, for C. putoria. The present data were similar to most data available in the literature, but differences in the same species are a possibility. PMID:26335461

  1. Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

    The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  2. It's About Time: A Survival Approach to Gestational Weight Gain and Preterm Delivery.

    Mitchell, Emily M; Hinkle, Stefanie N; Schisterman, Enrique F

    2016-03-01

    There is substantial interest in understanding the impact of gestational weight gain on preterm delivery (delivery hazard ratio: 0.89, 95% confidence interval = 0.84, 0.93). Properly accounting for the confounding effect of time using a survival model, however, mitigates this bias (hazard ratio: 0.98, 95% confidence interval = 0.97, 1.00). These results emphasize the importance of considering the effect of gestational age on time-varying covariates during pregnancy, and the proposed methods offer a convenient mechanism to appropriately analyze such data.See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B13. PMID:26489043

  3. Extended survival times of Mycoplasma gallisepticum and Mycoplasma synoviae on kanekalon synthetic hair fibres.

    Abolnik, Celia; Gouws, Johan

    2014-01-01

    The survival times of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg) and Mycoplasma synoviae (Ms) on washed and unwashed natural and synthetic kanekalon hair samples over a 5-d period were evaluated using the color changing unit method for comparison with results of previous studies conducted on natural hair. Regardless of whether synthetic or natural hair samples prewashed with a disinfectant shampoo were spiked with Mg or Ms, all viable organisms rapidly dropped below a count of 1 × 10(1)/mL of culture. Unwashed natural hair seeded with a titer of approximately 1 × 10(6)/mL of viable Mg or Ms decreased to 6 × 10(5)/mL and 6 × 10(3)/mL, respectively, by 4 h postseeding, but no viable Mg or Ms were detected on natural hair from 8 h onwards. By contrast, the titers of Mg and Ms on synthetic hair did not decline from the initial 1 × 10(6)/mL seed dose up to 96 h postseeding, and, in fact, viable Mg and Ms was still detectable at 9 d postinfection. Application of a real-time quantitative single-tube duplex PCR assay confirmed that no proliferation of Mg or Ms had occurred on the synthetic hair samples, the cells simply remained viable. The unexpected finding that Mg and Ms survive for extended periods on synthetic kanekalon hair fibers raises the question of whether attachment to a surface is a prerequisite for the survival and persistence of Mg and Ms in the extra-host environment. Future studies should be aimed at determining whether other synthetic hair types or indeed other types of plastics commonly found in the poultry house offer similar survival advantages to mycoplasmas. PMID:24570416

  4. Warming affects hatching time and early season survival of eastern tent caterpillars.

    Abarca, Mariana; Lill, John T

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is disrupting species interactions by altering the timing of phenological events such as budburst for plants and hatching for insects. We combined field observations with laboratory manipulations to investigate the consequences of climate warming on the phenology and performance of the eastern tent caterpillar (Malacosoma americanum). We evaluated the effects of warmer winter and spring regimes on caterpillar hatching patterns and starvation endurance, traits likely to be under selection in populations experiencing phenological asynchrony, using individuals from two different populations (Washington, DC, and Roswell, GA). We also quantified the proximate and extended fitness effects of early food deprivation and recorded spring phenology of local caterpillars and their host plants. In addition, we conducted laboratory assays to determine if caterpillars are using plant chemical cues to fine-tune their hatching times. Warmer winter temperatures induced earlier hatching and caterpillars from GA survived starvation for periods that were 30% longer than caterpillars from DC. Warmer spring regimes reduced the starvation endurance of caterpillars overwintering in the wild but not in the laboratory. Early starvation dramatically reduced hatchling survival; however, surviving caterpillars did not show detrimental effects on pupal mass or development time. In the field, hatching preceded budburst in both 2013 and 2014 and the period of optimal foliage quality was 2 weeks shorter in 2013. Hatching time was unaffected by exposure to plant volatiles. Overall, we found that warmer temperatures can trigger late-season asynchrony by accelerating plant phenology and caterpillars from different populations exhibit differential abilities to cope with environmental unreliability. PMID:26093630

  5. Nest survival patterns in Eurasian Bittern: effect of nest age, time and habitat variables

    2016-01-01

    Determining the key factors affecting the reproductive success of nesting birds is crucial in order to better understand the population dynamics of endangered species and to introduce effective conservation programmes for them. Inhabiting a variety of wetland habitats, aquatic birds actively select safe nesting sites so as to protect their nests against predators. The main aim of the present work was to assess the effect of temporal and habitat variables on the daily nest survival rate of Eurasian Bitterns colonizing semi–natural fishpond habitat in eastern Poland. MARK software was used for the modelling. Eurasian Bittern nests were most vulnerable to depredation at the beginning of the breeding season. This was probably because the reedbed vegetation at this time was not yet dense enough to effectively conceal the nests. There was a positive relationship between nest age and the daily survival rate. Two of the habitat variables analysed were of the greatest significance: water depth and vegetation density. In the Eurasian Bittern population studied here, nests built over deep water and in dense vegetation had the best chances of survival. The results of this work may be useful in the preparation of plans for the conservation and management of populations of this rare and endangered species. Conservation and restoration efforts that attempt to maintain high water levels will be especially beneficial to this avian species that is dependent on wetland ecosystems for breeding. PMID:27350897

  6. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  7. Cardiac arrest teams and time of day: effects on surviving in-hospital resuscitation

    Christ M

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Material and methods: In-hospital cardiac arrest teams at our hospital were instructed to complete a questionnaire following every emergency call between July 2011 and June 2013. Data on all resuscitation attempts were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 65 in-hospital resuscitations were recorded in 42 males (64.6% and 23 females (35.4% (mean age 72.0±14.3 years. A total of 54 (83.1% cardiac arrests were witnessed; seven (10.8% showed a shockable rhythm at the time of the first ECG. Resuscitation attempts lasted 29.3±41.3 minutes, and 4.1±3.1 mg epinephrine was given. Return of spontaneous circulation could be achieved in 38 patients (58.5%; 29 (44.6% survived the first day, 23 (35.4% the seventh day, and 15 patients (23.1% were discharged alive. Significantly more in-hospital resuscitations were obtained for those performed during non-regular working hours (P<0.001, with higher neuron-specific enolase levels at 72 hours after resuscitation during nonregular working hours (P=0.04. Patients who were discharged alive were significantly younger (P=0.01, presented more often with an initial shockable rhythm (P=0.04, and had a shorter duration of resuscitation (P<0.001 with the need of a lower dose of epinephrine (P<0.001. Discussion: Survival rates following in-hospital resuscitation were poor at any time, but appear to depend less on time-dependent effects of the quality of resuscitation and more on time-dependent effects of recognition of cardiac arrests

  8. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  9. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered

  10. Framing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: An international, comparative study of news frames in Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times

    This study investigated into the news frames employed in reporting on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, explored the maintenance of the radiation reporting standard, and assessed the overall tone for the local government, the Japanese Government, and the IAEA. Based on content from Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times (n=60), it was found that media evoked 'conflict', 'responsibility attribution', and 'human interest' frames, radiation reporting standard was marginally maintained, and the overall tone was neutral (local government, IAEA) or negative (Japanese Government). Variances across countries were observed, but results coincided with the country's nuclear energy policy. (author)

  11. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review.

    Costa, Lívio; Cunha, João Paulo; Amado, Duarte; Pinto, Luís Abegão; Ferreira, Joana

    2015-01-01

    Glaucoma is a multifactorial condition under serious influence of many risk factors. The role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in glaucoma etiology or progression remains inconclusive. Although, the diabetic patients have different healing mechanism comparing to the general population and it has a possible-negative role on surgical outcomes. This review article attempts to analyze the association of both diseases, glaucoma and DM, before and after the surgery. The epidemiological studies, based mainly in population prevalence analyzes, have shown opposite outcomes in time and even in the most recent articles also the association remains inconclusive. On the contrary, the experimental models based on animal induced chronic hyperglycemia have shown an important association of both diseases, explained by common neurodegenerative mechanisms. Diabetic patients have a different wound healing process in the eye viz-a-viz other organs. The healing process is more and it results in lower surgical survival time, higher intraocular pressure (IOP) levels and, therefore, these patients usually need more medication to lower the IOP. Both randomized and nonrandomized retrospective and experimental molecular studies have shown the association between DM and glaucoma. Further studies are needed to get better explanations about outcomes on more recent surgical procedures and with the exponential use of antifibrotics. How to cite this article: Costa L, Cunha JP, Amado D, Pinto LA, Ferreira J. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review. J Curr Glaucoma Pract 2015;9(3):81-85. PMID:26997842

  12. [Time trends of incidence rates of work accident with blood contamination in a North Italian teaching hospital].

    Ferrario, M M; Landone, S; De Biasi, M; Tagliasacchi, R; Riva, R; Veronesi, G; Sassi, M; Borchini, R; Bonzini, M

    2012-01-01

    Unbiased estimates of incidence rates of accidents with blood contaminations (ABC) and time trends is the milieu for assessing the effectiveness of preventive interventions. A standardised procedure for registration and follow-up of ABC was et up in a North Italian hospital since 2002. Accurate estimates of rate denominator, as full-time equivalent (FTE) person-years, was calculated, for exposed workers only and excluding periods of prolonged absence. In the observation period (2004-2011), training courses for head nurses on security procedures were repeatedly carried out as well as the progressive introduction of vacuum blood collection systems (since 2009). 1287 ABC have been reported, corresponding to an overall annual crude incidence rate of 4.73 per 100 FTE. Temporal trends, calculated on the biennial incidence, resulted in a reductions over the time period considered, in particular for needlestick injuries. Our results support the notions on the efficacy of the adopted prevention measures. PMID:23405640

  13. Gene expression profiling of canine osteosarcoma reveals genes associated with short and long survival times

    Rao Nagesha AS

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the

  14. Tolazoline decreases survival time during microwave-induced lethal heat stress in anesthetized rats

    Effects of α-adrenergic antagonists have been studied during environmental heating but not during microwave-induced heating. Tolazoline may exert some of its effects via α-adrenergic blockade. In the present study, ketamine-anesthetized Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to 2450-MHz microwaves at an average power density of 60 mW/cm2 (whole-body specific absorption rate of approximately 14 W/kg) until lethal temperatures were attained. The effects of tolazoline (10 mg/kg body weight) on physiological responses (including changes in body temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, and respiratory rate) were examined. Survival time was significantly shorter in the tolazoline group than in saline-treated animals. In general, heart rate and blood pressure responses were similar to those that occur during environmental heat stress. Heart rate, however, was significantly elevated in animals that received tolazoline, both before and during terminal microwave exposure. It is possible that changes associated with the elevated heart rate (e.g., less cardiac filling) in tolazoline-treated animals resulted in greater susceptibility to microwave-induced heating and the lower survival time. 47 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Survival of Bacillus pumilus spores for a prolonged period of time in real space conditions.

    Vaishampayan, Parag A; Rabbow, Elke; Horneck, Gerda; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri J

    2012-05-01

    To prevent forward contamination and maintain the scientific integrity of future life-detection missions, it is important to characterize and attempt to eliminate terrestrial microorganisms associated with exploratory spacecraft and landing vehicles. Among the organisms isolated from spacecraft-associated surfaces, spores of Bacillus pumilus SAFR-032 exhibited unusually high resistance to decontamination techniques such as UV radiation and peroxide treatment. Subsequently, B. pumilus SAFR-032 was flown to the International Space Station (ISS) and exposed to a variety of space conditions via the European Technology Exposure Facility (EuTEF). After 18 months of exposure in the EXPOSE facility of the European Space Agency (ESA) on EuTEF under dark space conditions, SAFR-032 spores showed 10-40% survivability, whereas a survival rate of 85-100% was observed when these spores were kept aboard the ISS under dark simulated martian atmospheric conditions. In contrast, when UV (>110 nm) was applied on SAFR-032 spores for the same time period and under the same conditions used in EXPOSE, a ∼7-log reduction in viability was observed. A parallel experiment was conducted on Earth with identical samples under simulated space conditions. Spores exposed to ground simulations showed less of a reduction in viability when compared with the "real space" exposed spores (∼3-log reduction in viability for "UV-Mars," and ∼4-log reduction in viability for "UV-Space"). A comparative proteomics analysis indicated that proteins conferring resistant traits (superoxide dismutase) were present in higher concentration in space-exposed spores when compared to controls. Also, the first-generation cells and spores derived from space-exposed samples exhibited elevated UVC resistance when compared with their ground control counterparts. The data generated are important for calculating the probability and mechanisms of microbial survival in space conditions and assessing microbial contaminants

  16. Preoperative diffusion-weighted imaging of single brain metastases correlates with patient survival times.

    Anna Sophie Berghoff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: MRI-based diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI visualizes the local differences in water diffusion in vivo. The prognostic value of DWI signal intensities on the source images and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC maps respectively has not yet been studied in brain metastases (BM. METHODS: We included into this retrospective analysis all patients operated for single BM at our institution between 2002 and 2010, in whom presurgical DWI and BM tissue samples were available. We recorded relevant clinical data, assessed DWI signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC values and performed histopathological analysis of BM tissues. Statistical analyses including uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: 65 patients (34 female, 31 male with a median overall survival time (OS of 15 months (range 0-99 months were available for this study. 19 (29.2% patients presented with hyper-, 3 (4.6% with iso-, and 43 (66.2% with hypointense DWI. ADCmean values could be determined in 32 (49.2% patients, ranged from 456.4 to 1691.8*10⁻⁶ mm²/s (median 969.5 and showed a highly significant correlation with DWI signal intensity. DWI hyperintensity correlated significantly with high amount of interstitial reticulin deposition. In univariate analysis, patients with hyperintense DWI (5 months and low ADCmean values (7 months had significantly worse OS than patients with iso/hypointense DWI (16 months and high ADCmean values (30 months, respectively. In multivariate survival analysis, high ADCmean values retained independent statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative DWI findings strongly and independently correlate with OS in patients operated for single BM and are related to interstitial fibrosis. Inclusion of DWI parameters into established risk stratification scores for BM patients should be considered.

  17. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  18. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  19. Indium-111 labeled platelet survival time studies in patients with prosthetic heart valves

    Platelet survival time (PST) studies are useful to demonstrate whether or not patients with prosthetic heart valves have normal or shortened PST. During treatment for recurrent TIAs the PST will signal whether the patient is returning towards a normal PST. Using Indium-111 labeled platelets (ILP) the authors studied 10 patients suffering recurrent TIAs after prosthetic valve surgery to determine whether low dose aspirin increased their PST toward normal and whether the treatment had a beneficial effect on their TIA episodes. The authors conclude that low dose aspirin therapy as studied by ILP has no beneficial effect on PST or in preventing recurrent TIA. ILP is an important technique that allows the physician to identify those patients with shortened PST and to determine response to therapy

  20. Irradiation shortens the survival time of red cells deficient in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenasee

    Westerman, M.P. (Rush Medical College, Chicago, IL); Wald, N.; Diloy-Puray, M.

    1980-03-01

    X radiation of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient red cells causes distinct shortening of their survival time. This is accompanied by significant lowering of reduced glutathione content and is not observed in similarly prepared and treated normal cells. The damage is most likely related to irradiation-induced formation of activated oxygen products and to their subsequent effects on the cells. Neither methemoglobin increases nor Heinz body formation were observed, suggesting that hemolysis occurred prior to these changes. The study provides a model for examining the effects of irradiation and activated oxygen on red cells and suggests that patients with G6PD deficiency who receive irradiation could develop severe hemolysis in certain clinical settings.

  1. Irradiation shortens the survival time of red cells deficient in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenasee

    X radiation of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient red cells causes distinct shortening of their survival time. This is accompanied by significant lowering of reduced glutathione content and is not observed in similarly prepared and treated normal cells. The damage is most likely related to irradiation-induced formation of activated oxygen products and to their subsequent effects on the cells. Neither methemoglobin increases nor Heinz body formation were observed, suggesting that hemolysis occurred prior to these changes. The study provides a model for examining the effects of irradiation and activated oxygen on red cells and suggests that patients with G6PD deficiency who receive irradiation could develop severe hemolysis in certain clinical settings

  2. Survive, help, learn: experience of a medical journal in war and post-war times.

    Sambunjak, Dario; Ivanis, Ana

    2006-07-01

    Medical journals and their editors have a unique responsibility in armed conflicts. The experience of the Croatian Medical Journal during and after the 1991-1995 war in Croatia shows how a medical journal can survive, help others and learn in times of war. The first duty of a medical journal in such circumstances is to publish scientific articles on various aspects of war medicine, and to document cases of human rights abuses. In small scientific communities, editors can offer their expertise and assist authors in writing and publishing war-related research and reports. In post-conflict period, medical journals have a responsibility to participate in peace-building and reconciliation efforts. They can do so by publishing good scientific articles regardless of their place or country of origin, re-establishing contacts with colleagues from the opposing sides, striving for the multiethnic or multinational Editorial and Advisory Boards, and engaging in collaborative research and regional initiatives. PMID:16961192

  3. Three-dimensional dose evaluation system using real-time wind field information for nuclear accidents in Taiwan

    In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures

  4. Three-dimensional dose evaluation system using real-time wind field information for nuclear accidents in Taiwan

    Wu, Jay; Lu, Chung-Hsin; Chang, Shu-Jun; Yang, Yung-Muh; Chang, Bor-Jing; Teng, Jen-Hsin

    2006-09-01

    In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures.

  5. Rhein lysinate increases the median survival time of SAMP10 mice: protective role in the kidney

    Gang HU; Jiang LIU; Yong-zhan ZHEN; Rong XU; Yu QIAO; Jie WEI; Ping TU

    2013-01-01

    Aim:To investigate the protective effects of rhein lysinate (RHL),a major bioactive constituent of the rhizome of rhubarb (Rheum palmatum Linn or Rheum tanguticum Maxim),against kidney impairment in senescence-prone inbred strain 10 (SAMP10) mice.Methods:SAMP10 mice were orally administered RHL (25 or 50 mg/kg) daily until 50% of the mice died.Senescence-resistant inbred strain 1 (SAMR1) mice administered no drug were taken as control.The kidneys were harvested after animal death,and examined morphologically and with immunochemical assays.The levels of MAD,SOD and GSH-px in the kidneys were measured with a photometric method.The expression of inflammatory factors and related proteins in the kidneys was analyzed using Western blotting.Results:Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL had no effect on the body weight or phenotype.However,RHL significantly prolonged the median survival time of SAMP10 mice by approximately 25%,as compared to untreated SAMP10 mice.Compared SAMR1 mice,SAMP10 mice had a significantly lower level of SOD in the kidneys,but had no significant difference in the MDA or GSH-px levels.Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL significantly reduced the MAD level,and increased the SOD and GSH-px levels in the kidneys.Glomerulonephritis was observed in SAMP10 mice but not in SAMR1 mice.RHL decreased the incidence of glomerulonephritis,and significantly decreased the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,NF-κB,collagen types Ⅰ and Ⅲ in the kidneys.Conclusion:Accelerated senescence is associated with glomerulonephritis in SAMP10 mice,and RHL prolongs their median survival time by red ucing the severity of glomeruloneph ritis.

  6. The impact of time factors on overall survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based study

    Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is most common in Southeast Asia. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between wait time and length of radiotherapy and overall survival (OS) of NPC patients in Taiwan. From Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, this nationwide population-based cohort study identified 3605 NPC patients who received radiotherapy between 2008 and 2011. The impact of time factors on NPC survival rates was estimated with Kaplan-Meier survival curves. A multivariable Cox hazards regression model tested the significance of results after adjustment for other covariables. In all, 317 patients had wait times >4 weeks, 1404 patients had longer duration of radiotherapy (i.e., >10 weeks) and 499 died. Patients with wait times > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks didn’t have significantly inferior survival. Patients with wait times >4 weeks and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks had significantly lower OS than other groups, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.7 (95 % CI, 1.10–2.60). Time was a significant prognostic factor for NPC patients who had both >4 weeks wait times and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks. Patients with wait time > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks had a trend toward an inferior survival

  7. PSO-Based Robot Path Planning for Multisurvivor Rescue in Limited Survival Time

    N. Geng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.

  8. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone. PMID:27308884

  9. Long time trends of the radio cesium contamination of venison in Germany after the Chernobyl accident

    The long time trend of the radio cesium contamination of browse and venison (red-, roederr, wild boar) from highly contaminated forest areas of Bavaria is discussed. Biological and ecoligcal half life times are derived. A model similar to the potassium cycle in closed forest systems is described to explain the observations. One of the most important proposals of the model is the prediction that the contamination will not decrease remarkly during the next decades. (orig.)

  10. Transportation accidents

    Predicting the possible consequences of transportation accidents provides a severe challenge to an analyst who must make a judgment of the likely consequences of a release event at an unpredictable time and place. Since it is impractical to try to obtain detailed knowledge of the meteorology and terrain for every potential accident location on a route or to obtain accurate descriptions of population distributions or sensitive property to be protected (data which are more likely to be more readily available when one deals with fixed-site problems), he is constrained to make conservative assumptions in response to a demanding public audience. These conservative assumptions are frequently offset by very small source terms (relative to a fixed site) created when a transport vehicle is involved in an accident. For radioactive materials, which are the principal interest of the authors, only the most elementary models have been used for assessing the consequences of release of these materials in the transportation setting. Risk analysis and environmental impact statements frequently have used the Pasquill-Gifford/gaussian techniques for releases of short duration, which are both simple and easy to apply and require a minimum amount of detailed information. However, after deciding to use such a model, the problem of selecting what specific parameters to use in specific transportation situations still presents itself. Additional complications arise because source terms are not well characterized, release rates can be variable over short and long time periods, and mechanisms by which source aerosols become entrained in air are not always obvious. Some approaches that have been used to address these problems will be reviewed with emphasis on guidelines to avoid the Worst-Case Scenario Syndrome

  11. Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

    Li-Wei Chao

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR, few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.

  12. Time trends of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident

    The rate of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in northern Ukraine during the period 1986-1998 is described as a function of time-since-exposure, age-at-exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk per dose: after a minimal latency period of about three years it shows a linear increase with time-since-exposure for at least nine years. It is roughly constant in age-at-exposure, up to 15 years. For girls exposed very young it is about a factor 2 larger than for boys. For children exposed at age 16-18 this ratio increases to about 5. The thyroids of young children are not more sensitive to radiation dose than those of older ones in absolute risk in northern Ukraine in the currently used data set. As the background is increasing with age, a constant absolute risk gives a decreasing relative risk

  13. Survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surface of airless bodies

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-11-01

    Rock boulders are typical features of the surfaces of many airless bodies, so the possibility of estimating their potential survival times may provide insights into the rates of surface-modification processes. As an opening point of this study we employ estimates of the survival times of meter-sized boulders on the surface of the Moon based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age (Basilevsky et al., 2013), and apply them, with necessary corrections, to boulders on other bodies. In this approach the major factor of rock destruction is considered to be impacts of meteorites. However another factor of the rock destruction, thermal fatigue due to day-night cycling, does exist and it was claimed by Delbo et al. (2014) as being more important than meteorite impacts. They concluded this on the basis of known presence of fine material on the surface of small asteroids, claiming that due to extremely low gravity on those bodies, the products of meteorite bombardment should leave these bodies, and thus their presence indicates that the process of thermal fatigue should be much more effective there. Delbo et al. (2014) made laboratory experiments on heating-cooling centimeter-sized samples of chondrites and, applying some assumptions and theoretical modeling concluded that, for example, at 1 AU distance from the Sun, the lifetime of 10 cm rock fragments on asteroids with period of rotation from 2.2 to 6 h should be only ~103 to 104 years (that is ~3.5×106 to 1.5×107 thermal cycles) and the larger the rock, the faster it should be destroyed. In response to those conclusions we assessed the results of earlier laboratory experiments, which show that only a part of comminuted material produced by high-velocity impacts into solid rocks is ejected from the crater while another part is not ejected but stays exposed on the target surface and is present in its subsurface. This means that the presence of

  14. Non-homogeneous time convolutions, renewal processes and age dependent mean number of motorcar accidents

    Gismondi, Fulvio; Janssen, Jacques; Manca, Raimondo

    2014-01-01

    Non-homogeneous renewal processes are not yet well established. One of the tools necessary for studying these processes is the non-homogeneous time convolution. Renewal theory has great relevance in general in economics and in particular in actuarial science, however most actuarial problems are connected with the age of the insured person. The introduction of non-homogeneity in the renewal processes brings actuarial applications closer to the real world. This paper will define the non-homogen...

  15. A comparison of United States and Japanese regulatory requirements at the time of Fukushima accident and updates of USNRC post-Fukushima activities

    This paper discusses the similarities and differences between the United States (US) and Japan on nuclear reactor regulations based on a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) study after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The US and Japan had many similarities in design basis requirements and guidance at the time of the event. There were also differences between the US and Japan in the approach to beyond design basis events and severe accidents. This paper also discusses the NRC's post-Fukushima activities and US industry’s responses. This paper will give the most recent updates on these activities and path forward. (author)

  16. Chaotic Dynamics of Comet 1P/Halley; Lyapunov Exponent and Survival Time Expectancy

    Muñoz-Gutiérrez, M A; Pichardo, B

    2014-01-01

    The orbital elements of comet Halley are known to a very high precision, suggesting that the calculation of its future dynamical evolution is straightforward. In this paper we seek to characterize the chaotic nature of the present day orbit of comet Halley and to quantify the timescale over which its motion can be predicted confidently. In addition, we attempt to determine the timescale over which its present day orbit will remain stable. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of test particles in orbits similar to that of comet Halley are carried out with the Mercury 6.2 code. On the basis of these we construct survival time maps to assess the absolute stability of Halley's orbit, frequency analysis maps, to study the variability of the orbit and we calculate the Lyapunov exponent for the orbit for variations in initial conditions at the level of the present day uncertainties in our knowledge of its orbital parameters. On the basis of our calculations of the Lyapunov exponent for comet Halley, the chaotic nat...

  17. Long-Time Survival of a Patient with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Case Report

    Željko Soldić

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. It does not cause any symptoms in the early stage, and later symptoms are nonspecific, thus the disease is usually diagnosed when already advanced. In 2008, pancreatic cancer ranked eighth on the list of the 10 most common cancers among men in Croatia and tenth on the list of the most common cancers among Croatian women. Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, with a survival time of only 6–8 months for metastatic disease. Gemcitabine is the standard chemotherapeutic option. Other chemotherapeutic agents include5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. In this paper, we present a case of a patient diagnosed with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, who is still alive and currently receives his fourth line of chemotherapy 5 years after the diagnosis. Following disease progression on gemcitabine chemotherapy, he was treated with chemoradiotherapy which, however, had no effect. We then applied cisplatin monochemotherapy which offered excellent disease control, was well tolerated by the patient and, although somewhat obsolete in this form, showed to be a valuable chemotherapeutic option.

  18. Dietary magnesium and copper affect survival time and neuroinflammation in chronic wasting disease.

    Nichols, Tracy A; Spraker, Terry R; Gidlewski, Thomas; Cummings, Bruce; Hill, Dana; Kong, Qingzhong; Balachandran, Aru; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Zabel, Mark D

    2016-05-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD), the only known wildlife prion disease, affects deer, elk and moose. The disease is an ongoing and expanding problem in both wild and captive North American cervid populations and is difficult to control in part due to the extreme environmental persistence of prions, which can transmit disease years after initial contamination. The role of exogenous factors in CWD transmission and progression is largely unexplored. In an effort to understand the influence of environmental and dietary constituents on CWD, we collected and analyzed water and soil samples from CWD-negative and positive captive cervid facilities, as well as from wild CWD-endozootic areas. Our analysis revealed that, when compared with CWD-positive sites, CWD-negative sites had a significantly higher concentration of magnesium, and a higher magnesium/copper (Mg/Cu) ratio in the water than that from CWD-positive sites. When cevidized transgenic mice were fed a custom diet devoid of Mg and Cu and drinking water with varied Mg/Cu ratios, we found that higher Mg/Cu ratio resulted in significantly longer survival times after intracerebral CWD inoculation. We also detected reduced levels of inflammatory cytokine gene expression in mice fed a modified diet with a higher Mg/Cu ratio compared to those on a standard rodent diet. These findings indicate a role for dietary Mg and Cu in CWD pathogenesis through modulating inflammation in the brain. PMID:27216881

  19. Time-fractional telegraph equation for hydrogen diffusion during severe accident in BWRs

    R.-I. Cázares-Ramírez

    2016-01-01

    The hydrogen concentration results in a reaction due to oxidation for different values of fractional coefficient, at t=0 and short times were obtained. The physical meaning is discussed when the fractional coefficient tends to a value of 1 and when it tends to a value of 0.5, i.e., within the limits of validity of the fractional model proposed. According to the results obtained the hydrogen concentration is inversely proportional to the fractional coefficient. These results are relevant for decision making in terms of risk analysis in nuclear power plant with BWR.

  20. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed. PMID:16794241

  1. Sipa, a real time system for post-accident training and studies

    The SIPA simulator, now under development, is designed to study in real time PWR behaviour under normal and accidental conditions. The commissioning of the version for EDF, called SIPA 1, and of the CEA version called SIPA 2 is planned in 1991. Its objectives are Shift Safety Advisors training, studies and safety analysis. Its software workshop will allow flexibility and portability. Most of the models are developed using code generators. The primary circuit is described by CATHARE-SIMU, a speeded-up version of the French advanced code CATHARE. It will be completed by about 35 connected systems developed by THOMSON-CSF and SEMA-GROUP. The computational power will be supplied by a CRAY processor that will be linked to a training network and an engineering network constituted of some independent workstations

  2. A class of estimators of the mean survival time from interval censored data with application to linear regression

    2008-01-01

    A class of estimators of the mean survival time with interval censored data are studied by unbiased transformation method.The estimators are constructed based on the observations to ensure unbiasedness in the sense that the estimators in a certain class have the same expectation as the mean survival time.The estimators have good properties such as strong consistency (with the rate of O(n-1/2 (log log n)1/2)) and asymptotic normality.The application to linear regression is considered and the simulation reports are given.

  3. Workplace organizational correlates of lost-time accident rates in manufacturing.

    Shannon, H S; Walters, V; Lewchuck, W; Richardson, J; Moran, L A; Haines, T; Verma, D

    1996-03-01

    We report the results of a questionnaire survey of manufacturing workplaces related to the lost-time frequency rates (LTFR) for Workers' Compensation claims. Six types of industry were chosen.' metal articles, plastic articles, grain products, textile manufacturing, printing, and automobile manufacturing. LTFR were standardized by type of industry. Stratifying simultaneously by number of employees and LTFR category, we sampled 718 workplaces. A mail questionnaire to labor and management representatives provided at least some information on 58%. Response rates were similar across LTFR categories, and telephone interviews of non-responders showed little difference in their replies from those obtained in completed questionnaires. A large number of variables were examined. Apart from statistical significance, we looked for consistency in trends across LTFR categories and in patterns for similar questions. Significant associations grouped into several areas. Lower LTFR were associated with: concrete demonstration by management of its concern for the workforce; greater involvement of workers in general decision-making; greater willingness of the Joint Health and Safety Committee to solve problems internally; and greater experience of the workforce. Variables that were not significant included profitability and financial performance. A final stepwise multiple regression explained 19% of the variance in LTFR, although this analysis suffered from several limitations. PMID:8833778

  4. Correlation between the CT manifestations and post-operative survival time in patients with thymic epithelial tumor

    Objective: To describe the CT manifestations of thymic epithelial tumor and explore the correlation between CT findings and post-operative tumor-related survival time. Methods: Ninety-one patients who underwent CT scan before operation were reviewed retrospectively. All cases had operation and were classified according to the WHO classification. The size, contour, shape, density and enhancement of the tumors on CT were assessed. Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy, great vessel invasion, metastasis to the lung or plural, myasthenia gravis (MG) were also analyzed. The survival rate was obtained using, the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox model was applied to determine the factors affecting the tumor-related survivals. Chi square test was used to analyze the relationship between CT findings and WHO classification. Results: Two patients were excluded because of dying of myocardial infarction and colon cancer. The total 5-year survival rate was 84.3% (n=75). Eighty-nine patients had total 91 tumors. Tumors with diameter larger than 5 cm, lobular contour, heterogenous density, and presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis were adverse factors which could significantly affect the survival time. Five-year survival rates of these factors were 72.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, 73.8%, 30.0%, and 68.8%, respectively. Presence of MG was a favorable factor which also significantly affected the survival time (P0.05). The result of the Cox multivariate analysis was consistent with that of the Log-rank test. For different WHO classification, there were significant different among the size or contour of the tumors, presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis (χ2 value were 6.598, 5.737, 18.307, 8.465, and 15.608, respectively P<0.05). Conclusions: CT findings may be served as predictors of clinical prognosis of the thymic epithelial tumors. Adverse factors for survival time are the size of the tumors and presence of

  5. Cardiac arrest teams and time of day: effects on surviving in-hospital resuscitation

    Christ M; Dierschke W; von Auenmueller KI; van Bracht M; Grett M; Trappe HJ

    2014-01-01

    Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Materi...

  6. Radiological and geophysical changes around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant since the accident to the present time

    Kolotkov, Gennady

    2013-04-01

    Detailed analysis of accidental released of radioactive material from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has shown that long-lived radionuclides add considerable support for intensity of ion formation. Based on the results of airborne monitoring by MEXT and DOE (total surface deposition of Cs134 and Cs137 inside 80 km zone of Fukushima Daiichi NPP) it has been calculated the spatial distribution of the intensity of ion formation and atmospheric electric conductivity. The evidence of plutonium in the Fukushima radioactive trace allows calculates the concentration of small, intermediate and large ions. The results show the excess of these parameters by several orders of magnitude since the accident to the present time. For example the concentration of small air ion in the area of Chernobyl is 7±2?102 cm-3, the Fukushima Daiichi NPP ones is 1.3?106 cm-3. The difference in the atmospheric bipolar electric conductivity is about 24 fS/m between the Chernobyl and the Fukushima Daiichi ones. The evaluation technique was used after Chernobyl disaster allows to make an analysis of ecological, hygiene requirements and other problems into the troposphere and on the soil intensity of ion formation in the area of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The standard ion air differ by four orders of magnitude in the case for Fukushima Daiichi ones. Comparative study of the radiophysical characteristics of the atmosphere with the analogous ones in Chernobyl and application of identification of various types of the air pollution is discussed.

  7. Time-to-burnout data for a prototypical ITER divertor tube during a simulated loss of flow accident

    The Loss of Flow Accident (LOFA) is a serious safety concern for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) as it has been suggested that greater than 100 seconds are necessary to safely shutdown the plasma when ITER is operating at full power. In this experiment, the thermal response of a prototypical ITER divertor tube during a simulated LOFA was studied. The divertor tube was fabricated from oxygen-free high-conductivity copper to have a square geometry with a circular coolant channel. The coolant channel inner diameter was 0.77 cm, the heated length was 4.0 cm, and the heated width was 1.6 cm. The mockup did not feature any flow enhancement techniques, i.e., swirl tape, helical coils, or internal fins. One-sided surface heating of the mockup was accomplished through the use of the 30 kW Sandia Electron Beam Test System. After reaching steady state temperatures in the mockup, as determined by two Type-K thermocouples installed 0.5 mm beneath the heated surface, the coolant pump was manually tripped off and the coolant flow allowed to naturally coast down. Electron beam heating continued after the pump trip until the divertor tube's heated surface exhibited the high temperature transient normally indicative of rapidly approaching burnout. Experimental data showed that time-to-burnout increases proportionally with increasing inlet velocity and decreases proportionally with increasing incident heat flux

  8. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats

  9. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  10. An Epidemiological Study of Accidents among Construction Workers in Kerman

    Hasan Khaje

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accidents are known among the leading causes of deaths and disabilities in developing and industrialized countries. Among the various occupations and activities, construction industry is among the most hazardous industries in the world, the risk of which and its following harms are still somehow unknown. This study aimed at investigating the epidemiology of accidents in construction, for the first time in Kerman. Methods: In this descriptive, analytical study, all construction workers (n=153 who had been hurt at work during 2006-2008 were investigated. The data were collected through questionnaire and were analyzed by chi-square and regression logistic test, SPSS statistical software. Results: The mean age of the injured workers was 32 years (the lowest age was 16 and the highest was 70 years and the highest rate of accidents occurred among the 16-36 years-old age group. Generally, 16.3 % (n=25 of the accidents led to death and 77.8% of the accidents occurred to people with junior high school and lower levels of education. There were significant relationships between the three variables of year, season and the shift in which the accident occurred and the result (death or survival of the accident. However, no significant relationships were observed between the insurance status of the injured and the results of the accidents. Conclusion: In Iran, there are strong relationships between reasons and results of accidents, so this study recommends more studies with the aim of changing the current trend to prevent the accidents in future.

  11. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  12. Studies on the Relationship between Neuroendocrine Cellular Differentiation in Gastric Cancers and Post-operative Survival Time

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine the ultrastructure of gastric cancer cells by the electron microscope, in order to assess the relationship between neuroendocrine differentiation and post-operative survival time.METHODS NSE, Syn and CgA immunohistochemical labeling was conducted in 168 cases with a common-type of gastric cancer. Electron microscopy was performed in 80 cases with positive immunohistochemical labeling.These cases were followed-up for over 5 years and the post-operative survival data analyzed.RESULTS Neuroendocrine granules were found by electron microscopy in 39 cases. The rate of neuroendocrine differentiation found was 23% (39/168), using routine diagnostic criteria and electron microscopy (REM).The post-operative survival time of gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation was significantly shorter (P=0.0032) compared to those without neuroendocrine differentiation.CONCLUSION It is of significant clinical importance to determine if the neuroendocrine cells are differentiated in gastric cancers. The gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation have a shorter post-operative survival time and a poorer prognosis. Electron microscopy is a reliable method of providing a diagnosis.

  13. Nuclear accidents

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  14. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A M; Ellers, Jacintha; Pomeren, Marinda van; Krommenhoek, Thibault; Styrishave, Bjarne; Hansen, Martin; Roelofs, Dick

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the...

  15. Radiation accidents

    Radiation accidents may be viewed as unusual exposure event which provide possible high exposure to a few people and, in the case of nuclear plants events, low exposure to large population. A number of radiation accidents have occurred over the past 50 years, involving radiation machines, radioactive materials and uncontrolled nuclear reactors. These accidents have resulted in number of people have been exposed to a range of internal and external radiation doses and those involving radioactive materials have involved multiple routs of exposure. Some of the more important accidents involving significant radiation doses or releases of radioactive materials, including any known health effects involves in it. An analysis of the common characteristics of accidents is useful resolving overarching issues, as has been done following nuclear power, industrial radiography and medical accidents. Success in avoiding accidents and responding when they do occur requires planning in order to have adequately trained and prepared health physics organization; well defined and developed instrument program; close cooperation among radiation protection experts, local and state authorities. Focus is given to the successful avoidance of accidents and response in the events they do occur. Palomares, spain in late 1960, Goiania, Brazil in 1987, Thule, Greenland in 1968, Rocky flats, Colorado in 1957 and 1969, Three mile island, Pennsylvania in 1979, Chernobyl Ukraine in april 1986, Kyshtym, former Soviet Union in 1957, Windscale, UK in Oct. 1957 Tomsk, Russian Federation in 1993, and many others are the important examples of major radiation accidents. (author)

  16. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  17. An influential factor for external radiation dose estimation for residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident-time spent outdoors for residents in Iitate Village.

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Sakata, Ritsu; Ozasa, Kotaro; Hayashi, Masayuki; Ohira, Tetsuya; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

    2016-06-01

    Many studies have been conducted on radiation doses to residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Time spent outdoors is an influential factor for external dose estimation. Since little information was available on actual time spent outdoors for residents, different values of average time spent outdoors per day have been used in dose estimation studies on the FDNPP accident. The most conservative value of 24 h was sometimes used, while 2.4 h was adopted for indoor workers in the UNSCEAR 2013 report. Fukushima Medical University has been estimating individual external doses received by residents as a part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey by collecting information on the records of moves and activities (the Basic Survey) after the accident from each resident. In the present study, these records were analyzed to estimate an average time spent outdoors per day. As an example, in Iitate Village, its arithmetic mean was 2.08 h (95% CI: 1.64-2.51) for a total of 170 persons selected from respondents to the Basic Survey. This is a much smaller value than commonly assumed. When 2.08 h is used for the external dose estimation, the dose is about 25% (23-26% when using the above 95% CI) less compared with the dose estimated for the commonly used value of 8 h. PMID:27034103

  18. Tutorial: Survival Estimation for Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Coe?cients Using SAS and R

    Laine Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Survival estimates are an essential compliment to multivariable regression models for time-to-event data, both for prediction and illustration of covariate effects. They are easily obtained under the Cox proportional-hazards model. In populations defined by an initial, acute event, like myocardial infarction, or in studies with long-term followup, the proportional-hazards assumption of constant hazard ratios is frequently violated. One alternative is to fit an interaction between covariates and a prespecified function of time, implemented as a time-dependent covariate. This effectively creates a time-varying coefficient that is easily estimated in software such as SAS and R. However, the usual programming statements for survival estimation are not directly applicable. Unique data manipulation and syntax is required, but is not well documented for either software. This paper offers a tutorial in survival estimation for the time-varying coefficient model, implemented in SAS and R. We provide a macro coxtvc to facilitate estimation in SAS where the current functionality is more limited. The macro is validated in simulated data and illustrated in an application.

  19. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  20. Fitting General Relative Risk Models for Survival Time and Matched Case-Control Analysis

    Langholz, Bryan; Richardson, David B.

    2009-01-01

    Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of survival data and conditional logistic regression analysis of matched case-control data are methods that are widely used by epidemiologists. Standard statistical software packages accommodate only log-linear model forms, which imply exponential exposure-response functions and multiplicative interactions. In this paper, the authors describe methods for fitting non-log-linear Cox and conditional logistic regression models. The authors use data fro...

  1. Radiological aspects of nuclear accident scenarios. Volume 1 real-time emergency response systems post-Chernobyl action

    In the event of a nuclear accident, there is a need for a rapid assessment of the resulting levels of environmental contamination in order to facilitate decisions on possible countermeasures. Volume 1 of this report covers the development of numerical models, in the form of software packages, to simulate atmospheric transport and deposition over various distances, and techniques for estimation of the resulting doses

  2. Radiological accidents balance in medicine

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs

  3. The Tokay-Mura accident

    On the 30. september 1999 occurred a criticality accident in the fuel fabrication plant of Tokai-Mura in Japan. 49 persons were irradiated but we present the case of the most seriously injured three workers. The radiation doses that would have been received by the three operators near the incriminated container have been evaluated to 17, 10 and 3 Grays. For the operators situated at five meters from the container and that has received three Grays, the first peak of criticality has been estimated at 2.1017 fissions. The number of fissions posterior to the first peak has been estimated between 4.1017 and 5.1018. In the three cases, the dose received by the organism has been attributed for about 40% to the neutrons and 60% to gamma radiations. The first operator presented an initial intense phase of acute irradiation syndrome. He received a graft of hematopoietic cells given by a sister of him on the sixth day, he was still alive 29 days later during the visit of the Commission, but he was in a coma and died shortly afterwards. The second victim has been equally reached by an acute irradiation syndrome, accompanied by a severe myeloid depression. At the ninth day, he received a blood graft coming from umbilical cord. He recovered a part of his own marrow, platelets excepted. He suffers from intense pains. A survival chance exists. The third victim was in an adjoining room, at about five meters far from the accident. He has been reached, but in a lower extent, by the acute irradiation syndrome and a low myeloid depression, that has decreased after a growth factors treatment. The prognosis is optimist in his case. The fact that patients have survived for the first time such a long time has revealed a very particular pathology of neutrons-gamma mixed irradiation, with an appearance of new medical problems due to the multiple failure of organs. To notice, the week before the accident, stood at Paris the 6. International conference devoted to the control of criticality

  4. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  5. COMPARATIVE STUDY ON LIVER TRANSPLANTATION WITH AND WITHOUT HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA WITH CIRRHOSIS: ANALYSIS OF MELD, WAITING TIME AND SURVIVAL

    de FREITAS, Alexandre Coutinho Teixeira; SHIGUIHARA, Rafael Shinmi; MONTEIRO, Ruan Teles; PAZETO, Thiago Linck; COELHO, Júlio Cezar Uili

    2016-01-01

    Background : Liver transplantation is the usual treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma. Aim: To analyze the MELD score, waiting time and three month and one year survival for liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma or not. Methods : This was a retrospective, observational and analytical study of 93 patients submitted to liver transplantation. Results : There were 28 hepatocellular carcinoma and 65 non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients with no differences related to age and sex distribution. The main causes of cirrhosis on hepatocellular carcinoma were hepatitis C virus (57.1%) and hepatitis B virus (28.5%), more frequent than non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which presented 27.7% and 4.6% respectively. The physiological and exception MELD score on hepatocellular carcinoma were 11.9 and 22.3 points. On non-hepatocellular carcinoma, it was 19.4 points, higher than the physiological MELD and lower than the exception MELD on hepatocellular carcinoma. The waiting time for transplantation was 96.2 days for neoplasia, shorter than the waiting time for non-neoplasia patients, which was 165.6 days. Three month and one year survival were 85.7% and 78.6% for neoplasia patients, similar to non-neoplasia, which were 77% and 75.4%. Conclusion: Hepatocellular carcinoma patients presented lower physiological MELD score, higher exception MELD score and shorter waiting time for transplantation when compared to non-hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Three month and one year survival were the same between the groups. PMID:27120734

  6. Effects of flavorings, storage conditions, and storage time on survival of Staphylococcus aureus in Sürk cheese.

    Masatcioğlu, Tuğrul M; Avşar, Yahya K

    2005-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the cumulative effects of flavorings (chili pepper, thyme, mint, cumin, nutmeg, allspice, clove, cinnamon, black pepper, salt, and hot red pepper paste), storage conditions, and storage time on the survival of Staphylococcus aureus in Sürk cheese and to monitor the associated chemical changes. Sürk cheese, a traditional Turkish cheese, was produced by heating diluted nonfat yogurt and adding flavorings to the resultant acid-heat curd. The cheese was later inoculated with S. aureus, shaped conically, and stored aerobically for mold growth and anaerobically in olive oil for 30 days at room temperature. The moisture content of aerobically stored cheese decreased over time and led to increases in total solids, salt, salt-in-moisture, and ash content during ripening (P effect, whereas storage conditions and storage duration decreased the survival of S. aureus (P < 0.05). PMID:16013393

  7. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. PMID:20618386

  8. OER by survival time for Cf-252, low dose rate Cs-137 and acute Co-60 for LSA lymphoma

    RBE and OER were determined for LSA tumor by survival time assay. The RBEn of Cf vs. Cs-137 was 5.8 and the OER was ∼ 1.4 by experiments performed in vitro and assayed in vivo. When tumor was irradiated in an advanced state in the living mouse, the RBEn was determined to be 5.2 vs. Cs-137. The RBE for hypoxic tumor is larger than for the oxic tumor for Cf-252 neutron irradiation. (Auth.)

  9. Age and Ebola viral load correlate with mortality and survival time in 288 Ebola virus disease patients

    Jin Li; Hui-Juan Duan; Hao-Yang Chen; Ying-Jie Ji; Xin Zhang; Yi-Hui Rong; Zhe Xu; Li-Jian Sun; Ji-Yuan Zhang; Li-Ming Liu; Bo Jin; Jian Zhang; Ning Du; Hai-Bin Su; Guang-Ju Teng

    2016-01-01

    Background: A Chinese medical team managed Ebola virus disease (EVD) patients in Sierra Leone from October 2014 to March 2015 and attended to 693 suspected patients, of whom 288 had confirmed disease. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted of the 288 patients with confirmed disease. Clinical symptoms, manifestations, and serum viral load were analyzed and compared among the different groups for mortality and survival time. Results: Among the 288 confirmed EVD patients (149 male an...

  10. KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on ...

  11. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body γ irradiation

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body γ irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice

  12. Rigorous bounds on survival times in circular accelerators and efficient computation of fringe-field transfer maps

    Analyzing stability of particle motion in storage rings contributes to the general field of stability analysis in weakly nonlinear motion. A method which we call pseudo invariant estimation (PIE) is used to compute lower bounds on the survival time in circular accelerators. The pseudeo invariants needed for this approach are computed via nonlinear perturbative normal form theory and the required global maxima of the highly complicated multivariate functions could only be rigorously bound with an extension of interval arithmetic. The bounds on the survival times are large enough to the relevant; the same is true for the lower bounds on dynamical aperatures, which can be computed. The PIE method can lead to novel design criteria with the objective of maximizing the survival time. A major effort in the direction of rigourous predictions only makes sense if accurate models of accelerators are available. Fringe fields often have a significant influence on optical properties, but the computation of fringe-field maps by DA based integration is slower by several orders of magnitude than DA evaluation of the propagator for main-field maps. A novel computation of fringe-field effects called symplectic scaling (SYSCA) is introduced. It exploits the advantages of Lie transformations, generating functions, and scaling properties and is extremely accurate. The computation of fringe-field maps is typically made nearly two orders of magnitude faster. (orig.)

  13. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be...... initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years...

  14. 中国突发环境事件时间序列分析%Time Series Analysis on suddenly-happened Environmental Accident in China

    范小杉; 罗宏

    2012-01-01

    突发性环境事件时间序列特征可表征环境风险管理成效及存在问题。研究表明2000年以来中国突发环境事件预防、控制与管理取得了显著成效,其中,突发性水污染事件、大气污染事件以及噪声振动危害年发生频次呈大幅度降低趋势,但固废污染事件自2003年以来的年发生频次变化不大,而其它突发性环境事件自2002年以来的年发生频次则呈快速增长态势,说明中国在强调突发性水环境和大气环境事件监管的同时,还需加强固废污染事件及其它类型突发环境事件的监控与管理。%the time series analysis on suddenly happened environmental accidents reflects not only the efficiency but also the existing problem of environmental risk management~ The research showed that Chinese environmental accident prevention, control and management have achieved remarkable results since 2000, the yearly frequency of Water pollution, air pollution and noise pollution occurrence have been decreasing obviously, but the frequency of the solid wastes pollution has been remaining stable since 2003, and the frequency of other types of environmental accidents having been increasing. This indicated that the solid wastes pollution and other types of environmental accidents should also get the same attention at the same time of strengthen Monitoring and management on water and air pollution in China.

  15. Accident Statistics

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  16. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China. PMID:24781332

  17. Simple parametric survival analysis with anonymized register data: A cohort study with truncated and interval censored event and censoring times

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To preserve patient anonymity, health register data may be provided as binned data only. Here we consider as example, how to estimate mean survival time after a diagnosis of metastatic colorectal cancer from Norwegian register data on time to death or censoring binned into 30 day intervals. All events occurring in the first three months (90 days after diagnosis were removed to achieve comparability with a clinical trial. The aim of the paper is to develop and implement a simple, and yet flexible method for analyzing such interval censored and truncated data. Methods Considering interval censoring a missing data problem, we implement a simple multiple imputation strategy that allows flexible sensitivity analyses with respect to the shape of the censoring distribution. To allow identification of appropriate parametric models, a χ2-goodness-of-fit test--also imputation based--is derived and supplemented with diagnostic plots. Uncertainty estimates for mean survival times are obtained via a simulation strategy. The validity and statistical efficiency of the proposed method for varying interval lengths is investigated in a simulation study and compared with simpler alternatives. Results Mean survival times estimated from the register data ranged from 1.2 (SE = 0.09 to 3.2 (0.31 years depending on period of diagnosis and choice of parametric model. The shape of the censoring distribution within intervals did generally not influence results, whereas the choice of parametric model did, even when different models fit the data equally well. In simulation studies both simple midpoint imputation and multiple imputation yielded nearly unbiased analyses (relative biases of -0.6% to 9.4% and confidence intervals with near-nominal coverage probabilities (93.4% to 95.7% for censoring intervals shorter than six months. For 12 month censoring intervals, multiple imputation provided better protection against bias, and coverage probabilities

  18. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. PMID:26695880

  19. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  20. Time to Insurance Approval in Private and Public Payers Does Not Influence Survival in Patients Who Undergo Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

    Bhatt, Vijaya Raj; Loberiza, Fausto R; Schmit-Pokorny, Kim; Lee, Stephanie J

    2016-06-01

    In the United States, insurance status has been implicated as a barrier to obtaining timely treatment. In this retrospective cohort study of 521 patients who underwent first hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), we investigated the association between timeliness of HCT and overall survival. Timeliness was operationally defined in the following 3 ways: (1) payer approval, from request for approval to actual payer approval; (2) transplantation speed, from payer approval to time of actual HCT; and (3) total time, from request for approval to HCT. Patients with private insurance had longer time to payer approval (P HCT (P HCT (P HCT in lymphoma (n = 278), and autologous HCT in multiple myeloma (n = 121). Additional studies to evaluate the effect of insurance timeliness on all patients for whom HCT is recommended, not just those who undergo HCT, should be conducted. PMID:26988742

  1. The survival probability of neutrons in supercritical convex bodies using a time-dependent collision probability method

    We consider the probability of the survival of the neutron population when one neutron is injected into a supercritical fissile convex body. The formalism developed by Pal and Bell is used and the equations arising for the survival probability are solved by using a time-dependent collision probability technique. In principle, this method can be used for arbitrarily shaped convex bodies. A simple one-region case is seen to lead to reasonably accurate results when compared with the work of Gregson and Prinja [Gregson, M.W., Prinja, A.K., 2008. Time-dependent non-extinction probability for fast burst reactors. Transactions of the American Nuclear Society 98, 533 (Anaheim, CA)]. The calculations are extended to the case where a steady background neutron source is present. The time-dependent, self-collision probabilities are evaluated for slab, sphere and infinite cylindrical geometries. A method due to Lefvert [Lefvert, T., 1979. New applications of the collision probability method in neutron transport theory. Progress in Nuclear Energy 4, 97] for solving time-dependent collision probability equations is shown to give accurate results. The usefulness of diffusion theory to solve this problem is also investigated

  2. Trichinella spiralis infection changes immune response in mice performed abdominal heterotopic cardiac transplantation and prolongs cardiac allograft survival time.

    Deng, Gengguo; Deng, Ronghai; Yao, Jianping; Liao, Bing; Chen, Yinghua; Wu, Zhongdao; Hu, Hongxing; Zhou, Xingwang; Ma, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Allograft rejection has been an obstacle for long-term survival of patients for many years. Current strategies for transplant rejection are not as optimal as we expected, especially for long-term treatments. Trichinella spiralis, a nematode parasitized in mammalian muscle and as an invader, maintains harmonious with host in the long term by evading host immune attack. To determine whether T. spiralis infection impacts on allograft rejection, we performed mice cardiac allograft transplantation model by using BALB/c (H-2(b)) mice as donors and C57BL/6 (H-2(b)) mice orally infected with 300 muscle larvae for 28 days as recipients. Graft survival was monitored by daily palpation of the abdomen; histologic change was observed by H&E stain; and CD4(+), CD8(+), CD4(+)IFN-γ(+), and CD4(+)IL-17(+) T cells and regulatory T cells were examined with the use of flow cytometry. Serum cytokine levels were measured by Luminex. Finally, we found that mean survival time of cardiac allografts in T. spiralis group was 23.40 ± 1.99 days, while the vehicle control group was 10.60 ± 0.75 days. Furthermore, we observed alleviated histological changes in the heart allograft, decreased corresponding CD8(+) T cells, suppressed Th1 and Th17 responses, and increased regulatory T cell frequency in a murine cardiac transplantation model at day 7 post-transplantation in experimental group. These data suggest that T. spiralis infection resulted in prolonged allograft survival following murine cardiac transplantation, with suppressed Th1/Th17 responses and augmented regulatory T cells. PMID:26481486

  3. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  4. Neurogenesis and the Spacing Effect: Learning over Time Enhances Memory and the Survival of New Neurons

    Sisti, Helene M.; Glass, Arnold L.; Shors, Tracey J.

    2007-01-01

    Information that is spaced over time is better remembered than the same amount of information massed together. This phenomenon, known as the spacing effect, was explored with respect to its effect on learning and neurogenesis in the adult dentate gyrus of the hippocampal formation. Because the cells are generated over time and because learning…

  5. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn;

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  6. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre; Pilecki, Bartosz; Duelund, Lars; Marcussen, Niels; Christesen, Henrik Thybo

    2016-01-01

    Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p<0.0001). Compared to the controls, E19 VDL pups had lower birth weight (2.13 vs. 2.29g, p<0.001), lung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002), SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002) as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, p<0.0001). At E22, the VDL-induced pulmonary differences were leveled out, but VDL pups had lower CRL (4.0 vs. 4.5cm, p<0.0001). The phospholipid levels and the surfactant protein mRNA expression did not differ between the dietary groups. In conclusion, Vitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted. PMID:27571350

  7. Clinical Presentation and Time-Based Mortality in Patients With Chest Injuries Associated With Road Traffic Accidents

    El-Menyar, Ayman; Abdelrahman, Husham; Al-Hassani, Ammar; Ellabib, Mohammad; Asim, Mohammad; Zarour, Ahmad; Al-Thani, Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Blunt chest trauma (BCT) poses significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Objectives: We investigated the clinical presentation and outcome of BCT related to road traffic accidents (RTA). Patients and Methods: A retrospective observational analysis for patients who sustained BCT secondary to RTA in terms of motor vehicle crash (MVC) and pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents (PMVA) who were admitted to the trauma center at Hamad general hospital, Doha, Qatar, between 2008 and 2011. Results: Of 5118 traumatic injury cases, 1004 (20%) were found to have BCT secondary to RTA (77% MVC and 23% PMVA). The majority were males (92%), and expatriates (72%). Among MVCs, 84% reported they did not use protective devices. There was a correlation between chest abbreviated injury score (AIS) and injury severity scoring (ISS) (r = 0.35, r2 = 0.12, P < 0.001). Regardless of mechanism of injury (MOI), multivariate analysis showed that the head injury associated with chest AIS and ISS was a predictor of mortality in BCT. Overall mortality was 15%, and the highest rate was observed within the first 24 hours post-trauma. Conclusions: Blunt chest trauma from RTA represents one-fifth of the total trauma admissions in Qatar, with a high overall mortality. Pedestrians are likely to have more severe injuries and higher fatality rates than MVC victims. Specific injury prevention programs focusing on road safety should be implemented to minimize the incidence of such preventable injuries.

  8. No Way Back: Maximizing survival time below the Schwarzschild event horizon

    Lewis, Geraint F

    2007-01-01

    It has long been known that once you cross the event horizon of a black hole, your destiny lies at the central singularity, irrespective of what you do. Furthermore, your demise will occur in a finite amount of proper time. In this paper, the use of rockets in extending the amount of time before the collision with the central singularity is examined. In general, the use of such rockets can increase your remaining time, but only up to a maximum value; this is at odds with the ``more you struggle, the less time you have'' statement that is sometimes discussed in relation to black holes. The derived equations are simple to solve numerically and the framework can be employed as a teaching tool for general relativity.

  9. Flexible Bayesian Survival Modeling with Semiparametric Time-Dependent and Shape-Restricted Covariate Effects

    Murray, Thomas A.; Hobbs, Brian P.; Sargent, Daniel J; Carlin, Bradley P.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, there are few options with available software to perform a fully Bayesian analysis of time-to-event data wherein the hazard is estimated semi- or non-parametrically. One option is the piecewise exponential model, which requires an often unrealistic assumption that the hazard is piecewise constant over time. The primary aim of this paper is to construct a tractable semiparametric alternative to the piecewise exponential model that assumes the hazard is continuous, and to provide mod...

  10. Assessment of chronic effects of tebuconazole on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna after different exposure times.

    Sancho, E; Villarroel, M J; Ferrando, M D

    2016-02-01

    The effect of the fungicide tebuconazole (0.41, 0.52, 0.71 and 1.14mg/L) on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna organisms was monitored using 14 and 21 days exposure tests. A third experiment was performed by exposing D. magna to the fungicide for 14 days followed by 7 days of recovery (14+7). In order to test fungicide effects on D. magna, parameters as survival, mean whole body length, mean total number of neonates per female, mean number of broods per female, mean brood size per female, time to first brood/reproduction and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were used. Reproduction was seriously affected by tebuconazole. All tebuconazole concentrations tested affected the number of broods per female and day to first brood. At 14-days test, number of neonates per female and body size decreased by concentrations of tebuconazole higher than 0.52mg/L, whereas at 21-days test both parameters were affected at all the concentrations tested. Survival of the daphnids after 14 days fungicide exposure did not exhibited differences among experimental and control groups. In this experiment r value was reduced (in a 22%) when animals were exposed to concentrations of 0.71mg/L and 1.14mg/L. Survival of daphnids exposed during 21 days to 1.14mg/L declined, and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) decreased in a 30 % for tebuconazole concentrations higher than 0.41mg/L. Longevity of daphnids pre-exposed to tebuconazole for 14 days and 7 days in clean water did not show differences from control values and all of them survived the 21 days of the test. However, after 7 days in fungicide free medium animals were unable to restore control values for reproductive parameters and length. The maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) was calculated using the r values as parameter of evaluation. MATC estimations were 0.61mg/L and 0.46mg/L for 14 and 21 days, respectively. Results showed that the number of neonates per female was the highest sensitive

  11. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  12. Iodine isotopes in precipitation: Four-year time series variations before and after 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

    Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.;

    2016-01-01

    Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for 127I and 129I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived 129I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets...... values in winter and spring-summer. The high 129I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up 129I from contaminated soil and...... water, respectively. Long-term declining rate suggests that contribution of the Fukushima-derived 129I to the atmosphere would become less since 2014....

  13. Time trends of smoking cessation analyzed with six mathematical survival models.

    Elketroussi, M; Fan, D P

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, six mathematical models were applied to model time trends of smoking cessation. Both statistical and non-statistical methods were used and included the exponential, ideodynamic, log-logistic, Pareto, sickle and Weibull models. All models included the possibilities of both permanent abstinence and relapse to smoking. Time trends from all models were compared with data from the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) program. The Pareto, log-logistic, Weibull and ideodynamic models yielded satisfactory fits to the data while the sickle and exponential models did not. Even though the data used in this paper were not sufficient to distinguish among these four models, the methodology will be useful for further narrowing the model choices as additional data for the testing become available. PMID:2050432

  14. The M1 form of tumor-associated macrophages in non-small cell lung cancer is positively associated with survival time

    Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function) and M2 (with pro-tumor function) forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group) and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages) and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm2) in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm2) and stroma (approximately 34/mm2) of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm2) and stroma (13/mm2) of the short survival group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively). The M2 macrophage densities were not associated with patient's survival time. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were

  15. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  16. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures known to us, the various road locations are treated as isolated spots. With small accident figures it is difficult to detect such places in the known procedures. An alternative procedure starts from...

  17. Survival analysis and prognostic factors of timing of first childbirth among women in Nigeria

    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis; Idemudia, Erhabor Sunday

    2016-01-01

    Background First childbirth in a woman’s life is one of the most important events in her life. It marks a turnaround when she might have to drop roles of career building and education, for motherhood and parenthood. The timing of the commencement of these roles affects the child bearing behavior of women as they progress in their reproductive ages. Prevalent early first childbirth in Nigeria has been reported as the main cause of high population growth and high  fertility, mortality and morbi...

  18. Cytomegalovirus infection does not impact on survival or time to first treatment in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    Parry, Helen Marie; Damery, Sarah; Hudson, Christopher; Maurer, Matthew J; Cerhan, James R; Pachnio, Annette; Begum, Jusnara; Slager, Susan L; Fegan, Christopher; Man, Stephen; Pepper, Christopher; Shanafelt, Tait D; Pratt, Guy; Moss, Paul A H

    2016-08-01

    Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a widely prevalent herpes virus which establishes a state of chronic infection. The establishment of CMV-specific immunity controls viral reactivation and leads to the accumulation of very large numbers of virus-specific T cells which come to dominate the immune repertoire. There is concern that this may reduce the immune response to heterologous infections and HCMV infection has been associated with reduced survival in elderly people. Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) suffer from a state of immune suppression but have a paradoxical increase in the magnitude of the CMV-specific T cell and humoral immune response. As such, there is now considerable interest in how CMV infection impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL. Utilizing a large prospective cohort of patients with B-CLL (n = 347) we evaluated the relationship between HCMV seropositivity and patient outcome. HCMV seropositive patients had significantly worse overall survival than HCMV negative patients in univariate analysis (HR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.34-3.88; P = 0.002). However, CMV seropositive patients were 4 years older than seronegative donors and this survival difference was lost in multivariate modeling adjusted for age and other validated prognostic markers (P = 0.34). No significant difference was found in multivariate modeling between HCMV positive and negative patients in relation to the time to first treatment (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.68-1.84; P = 0.65). These findings in a second independent cohort of 236 B-CLL patients were validated. In conclusion no evidence that HCMV impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL was found. Am. J. Hematol. 91:776-781, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27124884

  19. Fundamental knowledge of radiation protection necessary for nurses at the present time of restoration from the disaster of the nuclear power plant accident

    From the ICRP (2009) aspect of protection of people living in long-term contaminated area after a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency, the author discusses the title subject for expertise nursing at the restoration from the recent disaster of the nuclear power plant accident in Japan. Phases involved in the accident are the emergent and restoring period for retuning to the ordinary time. At the former phase, the reactor state is abnormal, radioactive substances are released in the environment, and emergent activities are required to prevent exposure like taking shelter indoor, evacuation, and limitation of forwarding and ingestion of food/water. For radiation management, the emergent dose of general public can be eased to 20-100 mSv, and at the latter restoration period, to 1-20 mSv/y (ICRP). Japan has defined for the former to be 20 mSv, which has brought about a heavy load like evacuation of 170 thousand people, death of patients during evacuation, unemployment, family broken up, school closing, etc. The author then mentions about the epidemiologically insignificant effect of lower dose than 200 mSv. Also mentions about the importance of mental care with an example of a housewives' anxiety in Tokyo, leading to the importance of nursing work. Further, about lost matters by fears of a small risk, like wearing the long sleeve clothes and mask in a closed room, buying foreign food rather than domestic, the misunderstood long retention of Cs-137 in the body because of its long physical half life, etc. Finally, the author lists home-pages for question and anxiety about radiological problems. (T.T.)

  20. Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma

    Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J;

    2014-01-01

    stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259......BACKGROUND: Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1...

  1. Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (扶正抗白冲剂) on Immune Function and Survival Time in Minimal Residual Leukemia Model Mice

    许勇钢; 麻柔; 胡乃平; 刘锋; 杨经敏; 马玲; 胡晓梅

    2001-01-01

    To observe the effects of Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (FZKBG) on immune function and survival time in minimal residual leukemia (MRL) model mice and explore its mechanism. Methods: MRL model mice were established by hypodermic inoculation with L7212 cells 1×106 following intraperitoneal injection of cytoxan (CTX) 250 mg/kg 3 days later, and divided into the control group and FZKBG treated group. The changes of T-lymphocyte subsets, including CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+, and the survival time in model mice were observed. Results: Compared with the control, FZKBG could obviously increase both the percentage and absolute value of CD3+ and CD4+ lymphocytes and prolong the survival time of model mice, the prolongation rate being 29.6% - 60.4%. Conclusion: FZKBG could markedly prolong the survival time of MRL mice, and its mechanism might be through elevating the immunologic function and inhibiting the leukemia cells in model mice.

  2. Association of early PSA failure time with increased distant metastasis and decreased survival in prostate brachytherapy patients

    Background and purpose: We investigated whether earlier PSA failure following prostate brachytherapy is associated with increased rates of distant metastases (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall mortality. Materials and methods: We retrospectively analyzed 2818 patients who underwent brachytherapy ± external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) ± androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). With median follow-up of 5.52 years, 264 patients experienced PSA failure at a median time of 3.25 years. Patients were stratified to early vs. late PSA failures at cutoffs of 1.5 years, 3 years, or 5 years, and tested in univariate/multivariate analyses for freedom from DM, cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Results: Among patients with PSA failures, 69 (26%) patients experienced DM, 47 (18%) PCSM, and 56 (21%) deaths from other causes. Patients with rapid PSA failures demonstrated increased rates of DM, PCSM, and overall mortality, despite higher total BED and longer ADT. In multivariate analysis with a PSA failure interval <3 years, the hazard ratio (HR) for DM was 3.92 (95% CI: 2.34–6.55; p = 0.000); HR for PCSM was 2.79 (95% CI: 1.45–5.38; p = 0.002); and HR for overall mortality was 2.28 (95% CI: 1.50–3.48; p = 0.000). Conclusion: Early PSA failure following radiation is a poor prognostic factor, as it is associated with increased DM, PCSM, and overall mortality

  3. Effect of Migration Pathway on Travel Time and Survival of Acoustic-Tagged Juvenile Salmonids in the Columbia River Estuary

    Harnish, Ryan A.; Johnson, Gary E.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Hughes, Michael S.; Ebberts, Blaine D.

    2012-02-01

    Off-channel areas (side channels, tidal flats, sand bars, and shallow-water bays) may serve as important migration corridors through estuarine environments for salmon and steelhead smolts. Relatively large percentages (21-33%) of acoustic-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts were detected migrating through off-channel areas of the Columbia River estuary in 2008. The probability of survival for off-channel migrants (0.78-0.94) was similar to or greater than the survival probability of main channel migrants (0.67-0.93). Median travel times were similar for all species or run types and migration pathways we examined, ranging from 1-2 d. The route used by smolts to migrate through the estuary may affect their vulnerability to predation. Acoustic-tagged steelhead that migrated nearest to avian predator nesting colonies experienced higher predation rates (24%) than those that migrated farthest from the colonies (10%). The use of multiple migration pathways may be advantageous to out-migrating smolts because it helps to buffer against high rates of mortality, which may occur in localized areas, and helps to minimize inter- and intraspecific competition.

  4. Prediction of time dependent survival in HF patients after VAD implantation using pre- and post-operative data.

    Kourou, Konstantina; Rigas, George; Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Goletsis, Yorgos; Exarchos, Themis P; Jacobs, Steven; Meyns, Bart; Trivella, Maria-Giovanna; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2016-03-01

    Heart failure is one of the most common diseases worldwide. In recent years, Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) have become a valuable option for patients with advanced HF. Although it has been shown that VADs improve patient survival rates, several complications persist during left VAD (LVAD) support. The stratification scores currently employed are mostly generic, i.e. not specifically built for LVAD patients, and are based on pre-implantation patient data. In this work we apply data mining approaches for the prediction of time dependent survival in patients after LVAD implantation. Moreover, the predictions acquired with the use of pre-implantation data are enriched by employing post-implantation data, i.e. follow-up data. Different clinical scenarios have been depicted and the subsequent conditions are tested in order to identify the optimal set of pre- and post-implant features, as well as the most suitable algorithms for feature selection and prediction. The proposed approach is applied to a real dataset of 71 patients, reporting an accuracy of 84.5%, sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 82%. Based on the reported results, expert cardio-surgeons can be supported in planning the treatment of VAD patients. PMID:26820445

  5. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISES, METHODS OF ADAPTATION AND SURVIVAL.

    Radu Oprea

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.

  6. Survey report on personal dose equivalent and indoor and outdoor staying time for children in the southern Miyagi Prefecture after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    A survey of personal dose equivalent for children using optically stimulated luminescent dosemeters has been carried out in the southern Miyagi Prefecture from 1 September 2011, about a half year after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The survey results until November 2013 are summarized in this paper. This is the only survey report in Miyagi Prefecture as any survey of personal dose equivalent was not carried out in this area. Findings of indoor and outdoor staying time (home and school) for children were also reported. It was found that the most time (14 - 15 hours a day) was spent at the inside of their houses for all ages. Children stay at the inside of their houses and school about 21 hours a day in a total. These results are quite important to explain individual dose for children and to take measures to reduce exposure dose as well. (author)

  7. Status of the Real-time On-line Decision Support (RODOS) system for off-site emergency management after nuclear and radiological accidents

    Under the auspices of its EURATOM Research Framework Programmes, the European Commission (EC) has supported the development of the comprehensive decision support system RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents for more than a decade. Many national research programmes, research institutes and industrial collaborators contributed to the project, in particular the German Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (B MU). The RODOS system can be applied to accidental releases into the atmosphere and various aquatic environments within and across Europe. It provides coherent support before, during and after such a release to assist analysis of the situation and decision making about short and long-term countermeasures for mitigating the consequences with respect to health, the environment, and the economy. Appropriate interfaces exist with local and national radiological monitoring data systems, meteorological measurements and forecasts, and for the adaptation to local, regional and national conditions in Europe. Within the European Integrated Project EURANOS of the sixth Framework Programme, the RODOS system is being enhanced, among others, for radiological emergencies such as dirty bombs attacks, transport accidents and satellite crashes by extensions of the nuclide list, the source term characteristics and the atmospheric dispersion model

  8. Abundance of early functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cells does not predict AIDS-free survival time.

    Ingrid M M Schellens

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.

  9. Tchernobyl accident

    First, R.M.B.K type reactors are described. Then, safety problems are dealt with reactor control, behavior during transients, normal loss of power and behavior of the reactor in case of leak. A possible scenario of the accident of Tchernobyl is proposed: events before the explosion, possible initiators, possible scenario and events subsequent to the core meltdown (corium-concrete interaction, interaction with the groundwater table). An estimation of the source term is proposed first from the installation characteristics and the supposed scenario of the accident, and from the measurements in Europe; radiological consequences are also estimated. Radioactivity measurements (Europe, Scandinavia, Western Europe, France) are given in tables (meteorological maps and fallouts in Europe). Finally, a description of the site is given

  10. Accident: Reminder

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  11. Is Leptospira able to survive in raw milk? Study on the inactivation at different storage times and temperatures.

    Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico

    2016-09-01

    The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers. PMID:26888018

  12. Expression of S1P metabolizing enzymes and receptors correlate with survival time and regulate cell migration in glioblastoma multiforme

    Bien-Möller, Sandra; Lange, Sandra; Holm, Tobias; Böhm, Andreas; Paland, Heiko; Küpper, Johannes; Herzog, Susann; Weitmann, Kerstin; Havemann, Christoph; Vogelgesang, Silke; Marx, Sascha; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Schroeder, Henry W.S.; Rauch, Bernhard H.

    2016-01-01

    A signaling molecule which is involved in proliferation and migration of malignant cells is the lipid mediator sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). There are hints for a potential role of S1P signaling in malignant brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) which is characterized by a poor prognosis. Therefore, a comprehensive expression analysis of S1P receptors (S1P1-S1P5) and S1P metabolizing enzymes in human GBM (n = 117) compared to healthy brain (n = 10) was performed to evaluate their role for patient's survival. Furthermore, influence of S1P receptor inhibition on proliferation and migration were studied in LN18 GBM cells. Compared to control brain, mRNA levels of S1P1, S1P2, S1P3 and S1P generating sphingosine kinase-1 were elevated in GBM. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated an association between S1P1 and S1P2 with patient's survival times. In vitro, an inhibitory effect of the SphK inhibitor SKI-II on viability of LN18 cells was shown. S1P itself had no effect on viability but stimulated LN18 migration which was blocked by inhibition of S1P1 and S1P2. The participation of S1P1 and S1P2 in LN18 migration was further supported by siRNA-mediated silencing of these receptors. Immunoblots and inhibition experiments suggest an involvement of the PI3-kinase/AKT1 pathway in the chemotactic effect of S1P in LN18 cells. In summary, our data argue for a role of S1P signaling in proliferation and migration of GBM cells. Individual components of the S1P pathway represent prognostic factors for patients with GBM. Perspectively, a selective modulation of S1P receptor subtypes could represent a therapeutic approach for GBM patients and requires further evaluation. PMID:26887055

  13. Simulation of severe accident in reactor core for training and accident management

    An Advanced Real-time Severe Accident Simulation (ARTSAS) train reactor operators and accident management teams for scenarios simulating severe accidents in nuclear reactors. The code has been integrated with the real-time tools and the RAINBO graphic package to provide training and analysis tools on workstations as well as on full-scope simulators. (orig.) (4 refs., 1 fig.)

  14. Health Problems in Radiation Accidents

    The authors define a radiation accident as a situation which has led or could have led to the unexpected irradiation of persons or contamination of the environment over and above the levels accepted as safe. Several categories of accidents are distinguished as a function of the consequences to be expected. The suggested system of classifying accidents makes it possible to plan post-accident measures within a single system of 'concentric circles', taking into account at the same time whether it will be possible to carry out the post-accident measures unaided or whether it will be necessary to bring in additional manpower and resources from outside. The authors consider the possibility of countering the effects of accidents as a function of their nature, with reference to the biological, economic and psychological aspects. They evaluate the part played by the health service in planning and carrying out accident prevention measures, and consider the function of radiological units attached to epidemiological health stations ; these units are essentially centres providing for precautionary measures to avert accidents and action to counter their effects. (author)

  15. The effect of hyperbaric oxygen on survival time of C57 mice implanted with GL261 gliomas after chemotherapy with ACNU

    LAN Chuan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the effect of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO on the survival of C57 mice implanted with GL261 gliomas after chemotherapy with nimustine (ACNU. Methods Forty adult male C57 mice were divided into four groups: control, HBO, ACNU and HBO + ACNU randomly by SPSS 10, and planted with GL261 glioma cell suspension in their caudate nucleus to form tumors. From the 7th day after implantation, these groups (except control group began to receive different treatments (HBO, ACNU and HBO + ACNU, in order to observe the effects of different treatments on the survival time of tumor bearing mice. Results There were no significant differences in the tumor volume, mass effect, severe compression of normal brain tissue and midline shift (F = 0.602, P = 0.618. The average survival time was significant with one-way ANOVA (F = 12.177, P = 0.000 and with the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of log-rank (χ2 = 13.604, P = 0.003, while multiple comparisons between groups showed HBO (χ2 = 0.365, P = 0.546 and single?time ACNU (χ2 = 0.884, P = 0.347 had no effect on the survival of mice; the effect of HBO + ACNU (χ2 = 9.962, P = 0.002 was better than that of HBO (χ2 = 6.925, P = 0.008 and single-time ACNU (χ2 = 7.152, P = 0.007. Conclusion The HBO had no effect on survival time of C57 mice with implantation of GL261 and could not promote the growth of the GL261 glioma. However, combining the treatment with ACNU could extend the survival time of tumor bearing mice, suggesting that HBO could strengthen the therapeutic effects of ACNU.

  16. Depression After First Hospital Admission for Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Study of Time of Onset and Impact on Survival.

    Osler, Merete; Mårtensson, Solvej; Wium-Andersen, Ida Kim; Prescott, Eva; Andersen, Per Kragh; Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Carlsen, Kathrine; Wium-Andersen, Marie Kim; Jørgensen, Martin Balslev

    2016-02-01

    We examined incidence of depression after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and whether the timing of depression onset influenced survival. All first-time hospitalizations for ACS (n = 97,793) identified in the Danish Patient Registry during 2001-2009 and a reference population were followed for depression and mortality via linkage to patient, prescription, and cause-of-death registries until the end of 2012. Incidence of depression (as defined by hospital discharge or antidepressant medication use) and the relationship between depression and mortality were examined using time-to-event models. In total, 19,520 (20.0%) ACS patients experienced depression within 2 years after the event. The adjusted rate ratio for depression in ACS patients compared with the reference population was 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25, 1.30). During 12 years of follow-up, 39,523 (40.4%) ACS patients and 27,931 (28.6%) of the reference population died. ACS patients with recurrent (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.57, 1.67) or new-onset (HR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.60, 1.72) depression had higher mortality rates than patients with no depression. In the reference population, the corresponding relative estimates for recurrent (HR =1.98, 95% CI: 1.92, 2.05) and new-onset (HR = 2.42, 95% CI: 2.31, 2.54) depression were stronger. Depression is common in ACS patients and is associated with increased mortality independently of time of onset, but here the excess mortality associated with depression seemed to be lower in ACS patients than in the reference population. PMID:26740025

  17. Length of time on dialysis prior to renal transplantation is a critical factor affecting patient survival after allografting.

    West, J C; Bisordi, J E; Squiers, E C; Latsha, R; Miller, J; Kelley, S E

    1992-01-01

    Within the past year at our transplant center we have had the experience of performing renal allografts in two patients older than 65 years, each of whom had been on hemodialysis more than 10 years. Both resulted in patient mortality within 90 days of transplant (one due to myocardial infarction, the other due to visceral ischemia with infarction). This prompted us to review retrospectively our own data (n = 204) and the national (UNOS) data (n = 10,971) regarding transplant outcome, patient age, and length of time on dialysis prior to renal transplantation. This review revealed that patient mortality after transplant increased with the length of end-stage renal disease (dialysis, regardless of type) independent of age, the greatest mortality occurring within the first 6 months of transplant (and not thereafter); graft survival was similar for all age cohorts analyzed. Our review of the literature reveals a paucity of articles pertaining to post-transplant mortality and length of time on dialysis prior to transplant. Our results indicate the following possible conclusions. (1) The length of time of end-stage renal disease therapy prior to renal transplantation is a significant and independent risk factor for post-transplant mortality. (2) Higher priority should be given to this factor when formulating strategies for allocation of scarce resources. (3) Patients on dialysis for extended periods of time who are elderly may be at particularly high risk. (4) Patients being considered for renal transplant should be informed of their individual risk factors for mortality post-transplant based on length of ESRD therapy. (5) Renal transplantation should be considered as early as possible in patients with ESRD (or imminent ESRD). PMID:14621760

  18. Thyroid diseases after Chernobyl accident

    Radioactive iodine is released at every atomic-bomb testings and nuclear plants accidents and radioactive iodine is taken up by thyroid glands (internal radiation). In addition to the internal radiation, radioactive fallout causes the external radiation and thyroid glands are known to be sensitive to the external radiation. Furthermore, patients with radiation-induced thyroid disease can survive for a long time regardless of the treatment. The survey of thyroid diseases, therefore, is very sensitive and reliable ways to investigate the effects of radiation caused by atomic bomb explosion, testing and various types of nuclear plants' accidents. Our group from Nagasaki University was asked to investigate the thyroid diseases and jointed to the Sasakawa Project. In order to investigate the effects of radiation on thyroid disease, it is essential 1) to make a correct diagnosis in each subject, 2) to calculate a correct radiation dose in each subject and finally, 3) to find out the correlation between the radiation dose and thyroid diseases including age-, sex- and area-matched controls. We have established 5 centers (1 in Russia, 2 in Belarus, 2 in Ukraine) and supplied the most valuable ultrasonography instruments, commercial kits for the determination of serum free T4 and TSH level and for the autoantibodies, instrument for urinary iodine measurements, syringers, tubes, refrigerators, etc. We visit each center often and asked people at centers to come to Japan for training. Protocol of investigation is essentially the same as that in Nagasaki, and we are planning to investigate more than 50,000 children within 5 years. We are hoping to show a definite conclusion in the near future. Recent articles are also discussed. (author)

  19. The number and microlocalization of tumor-associated immune cells are associated with patient's survival time in non-small cell lung cancer

    Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical staining for CD68 (marker for macrophages), CD83 (marker for mature dendritic cells), and CD8 (marker for cytotoxic T cells) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The numbers of immune cells in tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets, or tumor stroma were counted under a microscope. Correlation of the cell numbers and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (version 13.0). The numbers of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells were significantly more in the tumor stroma than in the tumor islets. The number of macrophages in the tumor islets was positively associated with patient's survival time, whereas the number of macrophages in the tumor stroma was negatively associated with patient's survival time in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The number of mature dendritic cells in the tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets only, or tumor stroma only was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets and stroma was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets only or stroma

  20. On the time development of the population dose in selected settlements of Korma county in Belarus about 13 years after the Chernobyl accident

    After the reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 the time development of environmental contamination and population doses was investigated by several national and international institutions. One of the most comprehensive projects was the German three-year measuring campaign that was started in 1991. Though concerning the ingestion dose in-vivo monitoring proved, that the international annual dose limit of 1 mSv/a had only been exceeded in less than 2% of 317,000 cases, an a priori unexpected upward trend of mean annual doses showed the necessity of further studies to verify the long-term evaluation of the population dose. Several small follow-up studies were initiated in Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. This paper reports especially on a study in Belarus, where two municipalities in Korma county were selected for further investigations: Wornovka, a purely agricultural municipality, and Volincy, an agricultural and forestal municipality. The ground contamination of these two areas was between 300 kBq/m2 and 630 kBq/m2 in 1991. In contrast to Wornovka the municipality of Volincy is surrounded by a contaminated forest area and isolated from the main part of Korma county by a highly contaminated evacuation zone and the river Sosch. Both the internal contamination of people as well as the contamination of the environment and food have been assessed using mobile in-vivo and environmental monitoring systems. Measurements of soil contamination in 1998 show a drop down to a mean of less than 200 kBq/m2 in both municipalities. The evaluation of the internal contamination with time is however quite different: in the year 1992 the mean value at Wornovka was 0.8 kBq, 1.7 kBq in 1997 and 2.8 kBq in autumn 1998. At Volincy the internal contamination increased from 6.1 kBq in 1992 to 14.1 kBq in 1998 and even 51.2 kBq in early summer 1999 corresponding to an internal dose of about 2 mSv/a. Body burdens of up to 660 kBq 137Cs have been observed. Due to the severe economic situation

  1. Temporal Statistic of Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    Erdogan, S.; Yalcin, M.; Yilmaz, M.; Korkmaz Takim, A.

    2015-10-01

    Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  2. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  3. Efficacy of Re-188-labelled sulphur colloid on prolongation of survival time in melanoma-bearing animals

    In this study, the effectiveness of a 188Re labeled sulfur colloid with two particle size ranges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of this agent on melanoma tumors in mice in terms of animal lifespan. Methods: Two separate group of animals were used for investigating biodistribution and survival time. A total of 188 B16F10-melanoma-bearing BDF1 mice were injected intraperitoneally with 3.7 MBq (0.1mCi)/2mL of radiolabeled sulfur colloid ten days after intraperitoneal inoculation of 5x105 B16F10 melanoma cells/2ml. For group 1, 30 mice were sacrificed at 1, 4, 24, 48 and 72 hours for biodistribution studies. In group 2, 158 mice were divided into 9 groups (n=16∼18/groups)each receiving respectively tumor alone, tumor with normal saline, cold colloid or hot colloid with 16, 23, 31, 46, 62, or 124 MBq activity. Each of these colloid groups was further divided into two groups, one receiving smaller particle sizes (188Re-sulfur colloid is an effective agent in controlling tumor cells in the abdominal cavity in animals

  4. The Chernobyl accident

    The accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the most severe in the nuclear industry. The accident caused the rapid death of 31 power plant employees and firemen, mainly from acute radiation exposures and burns, and brought about the evacuation of 116,000 people within a few weeks. In addition, about half a million workers and four million members of the public have been exposed, to some extent, to radiation doses resulting from the Chernobyl accident. A large number of radiation measurements have been made since the accident in order to reconstruct the doses received by the most exposed populations. On the basis of currently available information, it appears that: (1) average doses received by clean-up workers from external irradiation decreased with time, being about 300 mGy for the persons who worked in the first three months after the accident, about 170 mGy for the remainder of 1986, 130 mGy in 1987, 30 mGy in 1988, and 15 mGy in 1989; (2) the evacuees received, before evacuation, effective doses averaging 11 mSv for the population of Pripyat, and 18 mSv for the remainder of the population of the 30 km zone, with maximum effective doses ranging up to 380 mSv; and (3) among the populations living in contaminated areas, the highest doses were those delivered to the thyroids of children. Thyroid doses derived from thyroid measurements among Belarussian and Ukrainian children indicate median thyroid doses of about 300 mGy, and more than 1% of the children with thyroid doses in excess of 5000 mGy. A description is provided of the epidemiological studies that the National Cancer Institute has, since 1990, at the request of the Department of Energy, endeavoured to undertake, in cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine, on two possible health effects resulting from the Chernobyl accident: (1, thyroid cancer in children living in contaminated areas during the first few weeks following the accident, and (2) leukaemia among workers involved in clean

  5. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    James E Stahl

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant. METHODS: To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches. CONCLUSION: The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  6. Time Dependence of the (137)Cs Concentration in Particles Discharged from Rice Paddies to Freshwater Bodies after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident.

    Yoshimura, Kazuya; Onda, Yuichi; Wakahara, Taeko

    2016-04-19

    The concentration of particulate (137)Cs in paddy fields, which can be a major source of (137)Cs entering the water system, was studied following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. To parametrize the concentration and to estimate the time dependence, paddy fields covering various levels of (137)Cs deposition were investigated over the period 2011-2013 (n = 121). The particulate (137)Cs concentration (kBq kg-SS(-1)) showed a significant correlation with the initial surface deposition density (kBq m(-2)). This suggests that the entrainment coefficient (m(2) kg-SS(-1)), defined as the ratio between the particulate (137)Cs concentration and the initial surface deposition density, is an important parameter when modeling (137)Cs wash-off from paddy fields. The entrainment coefficient decreased with time following a double exponential function. The decrease rate constant of the entrainment coefficient was clearly higher than that reported for other land uses and for river water. The difference in the decrease rates of the entrainment coefficient suggests that paddy fields play a major role in radiocesium migration through the water system. An understanding of the decrease rate of the entrainment coefficient of paddy fields is therefore crucial to understand the migration of radiocesium in the water system. PMID:26999252

  7. Joint modelling of repeated measurements and event time: Application to performance traits and survival of lambs bred in sub-humid tropics

    Renard Didier

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV and faecal egg count (FEC of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survival time and the repeated measurements. Such an approach allows to account for the possible association between the survival and repeated measurement processes. The advantages and limitations of the joint modelling are discussed and illustrated using the Diani Estate study data.

  8. Joint modelling of repeated measurements and event time: application to performance traits and survival of lambs bred in sub-humid tropics.

    Nguti, Rosemary; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Rowlands, John; Renard, Didier; Janssen, Paul

    2005-01-01

    We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV) and faecal egg count (FEC) of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survival time and the repeated measurements. Such an approach allows to account for the possible association between the survival and repeated measurement processes. The advantages and limitations of the joint modelling are discussed and illustrated using the Diani Estate study data. PMID:16194523

  9. Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

    Castro, Edgar Oscar

    2013-01-01

    A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

  10. A retrospective analysis of survival outcomes for two different radiotherapy fractionation schedules given in the same overall time for limited stage small cell lung cancer

    To compare survival outcomes for two fractionation schedules of thoracic radiotherapy, both given over 3 weeks, in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). At Radiation Oncology Mater Centre (ROMC) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), patients with LS-SCLC treated with curative intent are given radiotherapy (with concurrent chemotherapy) to a dose of either 40Gy in 15 fractions ('the 40Gy/15⧣group') or 45Gy in 30 fractions ('the 45Gy/30⧣group'). The choice largely depends on institutional preference. Both these schedules are given over 3 weeks, using daily and twice-daily fractionation respectively. The records of all such patients treated from January 2000 to July 2009 were retrospectively reviewed and survival outcomes between the two groups compared. Of 118 eligible patients, there were 38 patients in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 41 patients in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The median relapse-free survival time was 12 months in both groups. Median overall survival was 21 months (95% CI 2–37 months) in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 26 months (95% CI 1–48 months) in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The 5-year overall survival rates were 20% and 25%, respectively (P=0.24). On multivariate analysis, factors influencing overall survival were: whether prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was given (P=0.01) and whether salvage chemotherapy was given at the time of relapse (P=0.057). Given the small sample size, the potential for selection bias and the retrospective nature of our study it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the efficacy of hypofractionated thoracic radiotherapy compared with hyperfractionated accelerated thoracic radiotherapy however hypofractionated radiotherapy may result in equivalent relapse-free survival.

  11. Scoping accident(s) for emergency planning

    At the request of the Conference of State Radiation Control Program Director's (CRCPD), in November 1976 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission formed a joint Task Force with representatives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to answer a number of questions posed by the States regarding emergency planning. This Task Force held monthly meetings through November 1977. In December 1977 a draft report was prepared for limited distribution for review and comment by selected State and local organizations. The NRC/EPA Task Force deliberations centered on the CRCPD request for '... a determination of the most severe accident basis for which radiological emergency response plans should be developed by offsite agencies...' in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. Federal Interagency guidance to the States in this regard has been that the scoping accident should be the most serious conservatively analyzed accident considered for siting purposes, as exemplified in the Commission's Regulations at 10 CFR Part 100 and the NRC staffs Regulatory Guides 1.3 and 1.4, and as presented in license applicant's Safety Analysis Reports and the USNRC Staffs Safety Evaluation Reports. The draft report of the Task Force amplifies on this recommendation: to present a clearer picture of its import and introduces the concept of protective action zones (PAZs) within which detailed emergency plans should be developed; one zone for the plume exposure pathway and a second, larger zone for contamination pathways. The time dependence of potential releases and atmospheric transport, and important radionuclide groups of possible import are also discussed in the draft Task Force report. A status report regarding this effort, as of June 1978, will be presented. (author)

  12. Severe accident analysis using dynamic accident progression event trees

    Hakobyan, Aram P.

    In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code [1]. A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a

  13. The ultimate nuclear accident

    The estimated energy equivalent of Chernobyl explosion was the 1/150 th of the explosive energy equivalent of atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima; while the devastation that could be caused by the world's stock pile of nuclear weapons, could be equivalent to 160 millions of Chernobyl-like incidents. As known, the number of nuclear weapons is over 50,000 and 2000 nuclear weapons are sufficient to destroy the world. The Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents have been blamed on human factors but also the human element, particularly in the form of psychological stresses on those operating the nuclear weapons, could accidentally bring the world to a nuclear catastrophe. This opinion is encouraged by the London's Sunday Times magazine which gave a graphic description of life inside a nuclear submarine. So, to speak of nuclear reactor accidents and not of nuclear weapons is false security. (author)

  14. Effect of pre-wintering and wintering temperature regimes on weight loss, survival, and emergence time in the mason bee Osmia cornuta (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)

    Bosch, Jordi; Kemp, William

    2004-01-01

    Osmia cornuta adults require exposure to wintering temperatures followed by incubation in the spring to emerge. We studied winter survival, weight loss, emergence time, and post-emergence longevity in O. cornuta exposed to a variety of pre-wintering and wintering treatments. Few bees emerged after exposure to wintering durations

  15. Risk of Early Onset Substance Use among Students with and without Mild Academic Disabilities: Results of a Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Kepper, Annelies; Koning, Ina; Vollebergh, Wilma; Monshouwer, Karin

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the age of onset of substance use among 536 students with mild academic disabilities and 906 students without academic disabilities, and the extent to which emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems explain the differences between these two groups. Using discrete-time survival analysis, the results of this study showed…

  16. Designing of an emergency call system for traffic accidents

    Ziya Ekşi; Murat Çakıroğlu

    2013-01-01

    In our country, many people have been seriously injured or died in traffic accidents. Fatal accidents often occur because of not complying with traffic rules or carelessness. Except these driver mistakes, heavy injuries can result in deaths because of emergency aid teams failing to arrive to accident scene in time. In this study, an accident emergency call system is designed to help injured people's treatment as soon as possible by notifying emercengy team automatically in accidents. The desi...

  17. Surviving death-anxieties in liquid modern times: examining Zygmunt Bauman's cultural theory of death and dying.

    Higo, Masa

    2012-01-01

    Despite his prominence as a leading contemporary social theorist, Zygmunt Bauman's long-term writing on the cultural theory of death and dying has largely been overlooked in the sociological literature of death and dying, particularly in the United States. Bauman uniquely theorizes how we survive death-anxieties today: Contemporary, liquid modern culture has engaged us in ceaseless pursuit of the unattainable consumer sensation of bodily fitness as a way to suppress and thus survive our death-anxieties. Bauman also argues that the prevalence of this cultural formula to survive death-anxieties has simultaneously increased, more than ever before in social history, the volume of individual responsibility for restlessly coping with existential anxieties in the societies of consumers. While unique and insightful, his theoretical argument has a limitation; largely succeeding Freud's classic view of mortality, Bauman's contemporary theory may lead us to neglect potentially important social, cultural, and historical variations in how mortality has been understood. PMID:23057247

  18. Criticality Accident

    At a meeting of electric utility presidents in October, 1999, the Federation Power Companies (FEPCO) officially decided to establish a Japanese version of WANO, following the JCO criticality accident. The Japanese WANO is expected to be launched by the end of the year: initially, with some 30 private sector companies concerned with nuclear fuel. It is said that the private sector had to make efforts to ensure that safety was the most important value in management policy throughout the industry, and that comprehensive inspections would be implemented. In anything related to nuclear energy, sufficient safety checks are required even for the most seemingly trivial matters. Therefore, the All-Japan Council of Local Governments with Atomic Power Stations has already proposed to the Japanese government that it should enact the special law for nuclear emergency, providing that the unified responsibility for nuclear disaster prevention should be shifted to the national government, since the nuclear disaster was quite special from the viewpoint of its safety regulation and technical aspects. (G.K.)

  19. Persistence on airline accidents.

    L. A. GIL-ALANA; Barros, C.P. (Carlos P.); J.R. Faria

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses airline accidents data from 1927-2006. The fractional integration methodology is adopted. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. Thus, there exists an equilibrium relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accidents events.

  20. Persistence in Airline Accidents

    Carlos Pestana Barros; João Ricardo Faria; Luis A. Gil-Alana

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses airline accident data from 1927-2006, through fractional integration. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. There exists a negative relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events.

  1. Effects of lunar cycle and fishing operations on longline-caught pelagic fish: fishing performance, capture time, and survival of fish

    Poisson, Francois; Gaertner, Jean-claude; Taquet, Marc; Durbec, Jean-Pierre; Bigelow, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Commercial longline fishing data were analyzed and experiments were conducted with gear equipped with hook timers and time-depth recorders in the Reunion Island fishery (21 degrees 5'S lat., 53 degrees 28'E long.) to elucidate direct and indirect effects of the lunar cycle and other operational factors that affect catch rates, catch composition, fish behavior, capture time, and fish survival. Logbook data from 1998 through 2000, comprising 2009 sets, indicated that swordfish (Xiphias gladius)...

  2. Severe accident phenomena

    Severe accidents are nuclear reactor accidents in which the reactor core is substantially damaged. The report describes severe reactor accident phenomena and their significance for the safety of nuclear power plants. A comprehensive set of phenomena ranging from accident initiation to containment behaviour and containment integrity questions are covered. The report is based on expertise gained in the severe accident assessment projects conducted at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). (49 refs., 32 figs., 12 tabs.)

  3. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. PMID:26687540

  4. 跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立%Construction of real-time hazards evaluation for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents

    李二平; 尤宏; 刘宝玲; 冯玉杰

    2012-01-01

    针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准.采用AHP(层次分析法)—综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法.%In recent year, trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents have become a prominent environmental and social problem. Therefore, it is in dire need of researching on early-warning index system and risk grading for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents. The sudden water pollution accidents bring pressure on the environment, change the situation of environment and cause human beings to respond to the accident. Hence, based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, we established a forecasting index system for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents caused by soluble hazardous leakage. Futhernore, in this paper, considering the pollution accidents characters and operability principles, the forecasting index system included twelve (actors from four aspects: water environmental risk sources, health and ecological risks, trans-boundary risks and emergency decision-making commands. Then,weight value of each index of the index system was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) through consulting experts. According to "China environmental emergency contingency plans the trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels: particularly significant tans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅰ) , significant trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅱ), general trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅲ), slightly trans-boundary environmental pollution event(Ⅳ) .At the same time, grading standards of every early warning index have also been obtained by referring to the existing international standards, codes and expert advices , as well as through comparing the hazard Levels of historical environmental events, AHP evaluation and synthetically

  5. Radiological accidents balance in medicine; Bilan des accidents radiologiques en medecine

    Nenot, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs.

  6. Modeling and assessment of accident consequences; development of RODOS, a real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergencies in Europe

    In cooperation with NRPB (UK), the first version 1.0 of PC COSYMA for use on advanced PCs has been released; during a training course in mid 1993, future users were educated in operating the software. The main frame version of the program package COSYMA has been up-dated with new dose conversion factors and fodd-chain data and was distributed to some 20 institutes in Europe and abroad. The comparative calculations performed within the international OECD(NEA)/CEC intercomparison of accident consequence assessment codes were analysed and documented in three reports. Furtheron, consequence assessments have been performed for the research reactor BER II (two source terms) and documented; the influence on individual doses and emergency actions of inplant accident management measures in future EPRs was quantified; within th scope of a EC/US-study on the external costs of the energy cycle, accident consequences were assessed for three source terms. (orig.)

  7. Transformation survival models

    Yulia Marchenko

    2014-01-01

    The Cox proportional hazards model is one of the most popular methods for analyzing survival or failure-time data. The key assumption underlying the Cox model is that of proportional hazards. This assumption may often be violated in practice. Transformation survival models extend the Cox regression methodology to allow for nonproportional hazards. They represent the class of semiparametric linear transformation models, which relates an unknown transformation of the survival time linearly to c...

  8. Complex karyotype in mantle cell lymphoma is a strong prognostic factor for the time to treatment and overall survival, independent of the MCL international prognostic index.

    Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260

  9. Longer waiting times for early stage cervical cancer patients undergoing radical hysterectomy are associated with diminished long-term overall survival

    Nanthamongkolkul, Kulisara

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of surgical waiting time on clinical outcome in early stage cervical cancer. Methods The cohort consisted of 441 patients diagnosed with stages IA2-IB1cervical cancer who underwent radical hysterectomy and pelvic node dissection. The patients were divided into two groups based on surgical waiting time. The associations between waiting time and other potential prognostic factors with clinical outcome were evaluated. Results The median surgical waiting time was 43 days. Deep stromal invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 4.6; p=0.003) and lymph node metastasis (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.7; p=0.026) were identified as independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival while no prognostic significance of surgical waiting time was found (p=0.677). On multivariate analysis of overall survival (OS), only deep stromal invasion (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.0; p=0.009) and lymph node metastasis (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 8.6; p=0.009) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Although OS showed no significant difference between short (≤8 weeks) and long (>8 weeks) waiting times, multivariate analysis of OS with time-varying effects revealed that a waiting time longer than 8 weeks was associated with poorer long-term survival (after 5 years; HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 9.2; p=0.021). Conclusion A longer surgical waiting time was associated with diminished long-term OS of early stage cervical cancer patients. PMID:26404122

  10. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  11. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  12. The number and microlocalization of tumor-associated immune cells are associated with patient's survival time in non-small cell lung cancer

    Zhang Shangfu; Ma Junliang; Pu Qiang; Yu Nanbin; Che Guowei; Liu Lunxu; Dai Fuqiang; Ma Lin; You Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Methods Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSC...

  13. The effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival: Correcting for healthy performer survivor bias with a rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model

    Han, Xu; Small, Dylan S.; Foster, Dean P.; Patel, Vishal

    2011-01-01

    We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and $g...

  14. Inoculation of a Poultry Isolate Salmonella enteritidis on Egg Vitelline Membrane: Survival and Growth in Egg Components after Different Refrigeration Storage Times

    Z. R. Howard; R. W. Moore; I. B. Zabala Diaz; Kim, W. K.; S. G. Birkhold; J. A. Byrd; L. F. Kubena; Nisbet, D. J.; Ricke, S C

    2007-01-01

    An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis re...

  15. Joint modelling of repeated measurements and event time: Application to performance traits and survival of lambs bred in sub-humid tropics

    Renard Didier; Rowlands John; Burzykowski Tomasz; Nguti Rosemary; Janssen Paul

    2005-01-01

    Abstract We considered the analysis of a study for Dorper, Red Maasai and crossbred lambs born over a period of 6 years at the Diani Estate, Kenya. The study was designed to compare survival and performance traits of genotypes with differing susceptibilities to helminthiasis. The available data include information on time to death and repeated measurements of body weight, packed cell volume (PCV) and faecal egg count (FEC) of the animals. In the paper, we consider joint modelling of the survi...

  16. Abundance, Timing of Migration, and Egg-to-Smolt Survival of Juvenile Chum Salmon, Kwethluk River, Alaska, 2007 and 2008

    Burril, Sean E.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Finn, James E.; U.S. Geological Survey; Gillikin, Daniel; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

    2010-01-01

    To better understand and partition mortality among life stages of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), we used inclined-plane traps to monitor the migration of juveniles in the Kwethluk River, Alaska in 2007 and 2008. The migration of juvenile chum salmon peaked in mid-May and catch rates were greatest when water levels were rising. Movement of chum salmon was diurnal with highest catch rates occurring during the hours of low light (that is, 22:00 to 10:00). Trap efficiency ranged from 0.37 to 4.04 percent (overall efficiency = 1.94 percent). Total abundance of juvenile chum salmon was estimated to be 2.0 million fish in 2007 and 2.9 million fish in 2008. On the basis of the estimate of chum salmon females passing the Kwethluk River weir and age-specific fecundity, we estimated the potential egg deposition (PED) upstream of the weir and trapping site. Egg-to-smolt survival, calculated by dividing the estimate of juvenile chum salmon emigrating past the weir site by the estimate of PED, was 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.2 percent in 2008. In addition to chum salmon, Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha), coho salmon (O. kisutch), sockeye salmon (O. nerka), and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha), as well as ten other fish species, were captured in the traps. As with chum salmon, catch of these species increased during periods of increasing discharge and peaked during hours of low light. This study successfully determined the characteristics of juvenile salmon migrations and estimated egg-to-smolt survival for chum salmon. This is the first estimate of survival for any juvenile salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska and demonstrates an approach that can help to partition mortality between freshwater and marine life stages, information critical to understanding the dynamics of salmon in this region.

  17. Introduction to Survival Analysis

    Valenta, Zdeněk

    Brno: Masarykova Univerzita, 2013 - (Pavlík, T.; Májek, O.), s. 44-56 ISBN 978-80-210-6305-1. [Summer School on Computational Biology /9./. Svratka (CZ), 10.09.2013-13.09.2013] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : survival analysis * time-to-event data * censoring process * hazard function * survival time Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  18. A race against time: can CO-OPs and provider start-ups survive in the health insurance marketplaces?

    Eggbeer, Bill

    2015-12-01

    > The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups. PMID:26793946

  19. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  20. EC-sponsored research activities on accident management measures

    research activities were also conducted for this project. The activities of the 'ASIA' project will extend and build on the work of the 'AMS' project mentioned above. In particular, it will further develop operator aids based on physical models in order to validate Critical Safety Functions (CSF) measurements and understanding accident progression by using search algorithms. The instrument survival in severe accident environments expected for PWRs will also be further assessed, in particular for the neutron flux sensors. These EC-sponsored research projects are proving to be very valuable for the improved understanding of some of the key AM issues mentioned above, and are also contributing to stimulate cooperation among organisations from different EU member states, to avoid duplication of R and D efforts and to use the available resources in an efficient way. The area of AM support can be considered one of the most promising R and D fields in which effective solutions can be reached with reasonable efforts and in a realistic time frame. (authors)

  1. Application of PCTRAN-3/U to studying accident management during PWR severe accident

    In order to improve the safety of nuclear power plant, operator action should be taken into account during a severe accident. While it takes a long time to simulate the plant transient behavior under a severe accident in comparison with the design based accident, a transient simulator should have both high speed calculation capability and interactive functions to model the operating procedures. PCTRAN has been developing to be a simple simulator by using a personal computer to simulate plant behavior under an accident condition. While currently available means usually take relatively long time to simulate plant behavior, using a current high-powered personal computer (PC), PCTRAN-3/U code is designed to operate at a speed significantly faster than real-time. The author describes some results of PCTRAN application in studying the efficiency of accident management for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) during an severe accident

  2. SEVERE ACCIDENT MANAGEMENT TRAINING

    The purpose of this paper is (a) to define the International Atomic Energy Agency's role in the area of severe accident management training, (b) to briefly describe the status of representative severe accident analysis tools designed to support development and validation of accident management guidelines, and more recently, simulate the accident with sufficient accuracy to support the training of technical support and reactor operator staff, and (c) provide an overview of representative design-specific accident management guidelines and training. Since accident management and the development of accident management validation and training software is a rapidly evolving area, this paper is also intended to evolve as accident management guidelines and training programs are developed to meet different reactor design requirements and individual national requirements

  3. Psychology of nuclear accidents

    Tysoe, M.

    1983-03-31

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed.

  4. Effect of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process: Inverse power law and Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities

    Pramukkul, Pensri; Svenkeson, Adam; Grigolini, Paolo

    2014-02-01

    We study the combined effects of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process that generates intermittent events mimicking the behavior of complex systems. By varying the sensitivity level of the detector we move between two forms of complexity, from inverse power law to Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities. Here fluctuations fight against complexity, causing an exponential truncation to the survival probability. We show that fluctuations of relatively weak intensity have a strong effect on the generation of Mittag-Leffler complexity, providing a reason why stretched exponentials are frequently found in nature. Our results afford a more unified picture of complexity resting on the Mittag-Leffler function and encompassing the standard inverse power law definition.

  5. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  6. SAMSON: Severe Accident Management System Online Network

    SAMSON, Severe Accident Management System Online Network, is a computational tool used in the event of a nuclear power plant accident by accident managers in the Technical Support Centers (TSC) and Emergency Offsite Facilities (EOF). SAMSON examines over 150 status points monitored by nuclear power plant process computers during a severe accident and makes predictions about when core damage, support plate failure, and reactor vessel failure will occur. These predictions are based on the current state of the plant assuming that all safety equipment not already operating will fail. The status points analyzed include radiation levels, flow rates, pressure levels, temperatures and water levels. SAMSON uses an expert system as well as neural networks trained with the back propagation learning algorithm to make predictions. Previous training on data from accident analysis code allows SAMSON to associate different states in the plant with different times to critical failures. The accidents currently recognized by SAMSON include steam generator tube ruptures (SGTR), with breaks ranging from one tube to eights tubes, and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), with breaks ranging from 0.001 square feet in size to breaks 3.0 square feet. SAMSON contains several neural networks for each accident type and break size, and chooses the correct network after accident classification by in expert system. SAMSON also provides information concerning the status of plant sensors and recovery strategies

  7. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    The techniques currently used in off-site consequence modelling are applied to the Chernobyl accident. Firstly, the time dependent spread of radioactive material across the European continent is considered, followed by a preliminary assessment of the dosimetric impact (in terms of collective and mean individual doses) on the various countries of Eastern and Western Europe. The consequences of the accident in the USSR are also discussed. Finally, the likely implications of the Chernobyl event on research in the field of environmental consequence assessment are outlined. (author)

  8. Severe accident source term reassessment

    This paper summarizes the status of the reassessment of severe reactor accident source terms, which are defined as the quantity, type, and timing of fission product releases from such accidents. Concentration is on the major results and conclusions of analyses with modern methods for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs), and the special case of containment bypass. Some distinctions are drawn between analyses for PWRs and BWRs. In general, the more the matter is examined, the consequences, or probability of serious consequences, seem to be less. (author)

  9. Application of UNIVAID-HAS in Highway Monitoring Timely and Detection of Traffic Accidents%交通事件检测系统在高速公路中的应用

    郑玉兴

    2009-01-01

    介绍了新一代智能交通信息管理系统,它融合了车辆跟踪检测技术、虚拟线圈技术,极大地满足了高速公路运营管理部门对实时交通事件的监控管理需求.%The paper introduces a new era system UNIVAID-HAS for traffic information intelligence management,system for traffic accidents administration.Its hardware mixes together with the techniques for vehicle tracing detection,fictitious coil techniques and a series of relevant techniques,which greatly meet the requirement of highway running administrative authority for traffic unexpected accidents monitoring timely.

  10. Air cleaning in accident situations

    The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) through its subsidiaries the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) established in 1979 a Group of Experts or Air Cleaning in Accident Situations. This group met seven times to establish a draft report based on its Terms of Reference which were to: 1) review the performance of off-gas cleaning systems in accident conditions; 2) collect information about operating experience with these systems; 3) seek to establish common principles for the design of off-gas systems; 4) review methods used in the different countries for testing filters from the standpoint of accident conditions; and 5) suggest specific mechanisms for improving cooperation, with regard, for example, to filter testing. The conclusions and recommendations of the Group are summarized

  11. Severe accident management guidelines tool

    Severe Accident is addressed by means of a great number of documents such as guidelines, calculation aids and diagnostic trees. The response methodology often requires the use of several documents at the same time while Technical Support Centre members need to assess the appropriate set of equipment within the adequate mitigation strategies. In order to facilitate the response, TECNATOM has developed SAMG TOOL, initially named GGAS TOOL, which is an easy to use computer program that clearly improves and accelerates the severe accident management. The software is designed with powerful features that allow the users to focus on the decision-making process. Consequently, SAMG TOOL significantly improves the severe accident training, ensuring a better response under a real situation. The software is already installed in several Spanish Nuclear Power Plants and trainees claim that the methodology can be followed easier with it, especially because guidelines, calculation aids, equipment information and strategies availability can be accessed immediately (authors)

  12. Investigation of a fatal airplane crash: autopsy, computed tomography, and injury pattern analysis used to determine who was steering the plane at time of accident. A case report

    Høyer, Christian Bjerre; Nielsen, Trine Skov; Nagel, Lise Loft;

    2012-01-01

    A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior to the...... autopsy. The autopsies showed massive destruction to the bodies of the two victims but did not identify any signs of acute or chronic medical conditions that could explain loss of control of the airplane. PMCT, histological examination, and forensic chemical analysis also failed to identify an explanation...... for the crash. A detailed review of an airplane identical to the crashed airplane was performed in collaboration with the Danish Accident Investigation Board and the Danish National Police, National Centre of Forensic Services. The injuries were described using the abbreviated injury scale, the injury...

  13. Supervisor's accident investigation handbook

    This pamphlet was prepared by the Environmental Health and Safety Department (EH and S) of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) to provide LBL supervisors with a handy reference to LBL's accident investigation program. The publication supplements the Accident and Emergencies section of LBL's Regulations and Procedures Manual, Pub. 201. The present guide discusses only accidents that are to be investigated by the supervisor. These accidents are classified as Type C by the Department of Energy (DOE) and include most occupational injuries and illnesses, government motor-vehicle accidents, and property damages of less than $50,000

  14. Framework for accident management

    Accident management is an essential element of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Integration Plan for the closure of severe accident issues. This element will consolidate the results from other key elements; such as the Individual Plant Examination (IPE), the Containment Performance Improvement, and the Severe Accident Research Programs, in a form that can be used to enhance the safety programs for nuclear power plants. The NRC is currently conducting an Accident Management Program that is intended to aid in defining the scope and attributes of an accident management program for nuclear power plants. The accident management plan will ensure that a plant specific program is developed and implemented to promote the most effective use of available utility resources (people and hardware) to prevent and mitigate severe accidents. Hardware changes or other plant modifications to reduce the frequency of severe accidents are not a central aim of this program. To accomplish the outlined objectives, the NRC has developed an accident management framework that is comprised of five elements: (1) accident management strategies, (2) training, (3) guidance and computational aids, (4) instrumentation, and (5) delineation of decision making responsibilities. A process for the development of an accident management program has been identified using these NRC framework elements

  15. Proceedings of the workshop on operator training for severe accident management and instrumentation capabilities during severe accidents

    This Workshop was organised in collaboration with Electricite de France (Service Etudes et Projets Thermiques et Nucleaires). There were 34 participants, representing thirteen OECD Member countries, the Russian Federation and the OECD/NEA. Almost half the participants represented utilities. The second largest group was regulatory authorities and their technical support organisations. Basically, the Workshop was a follow-up to the 1997 Second Specialist Meeting on Operator Aids for Severe Accident Management (SAMOA-2) [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(97)10 and 27] and to the 1992 Specialist Meeting on Instrumentation to Manage Severe Accidents [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(92)11 and (93)3]. It was aimed at sharing and comparing progress made and experience gained from these two meetings, emphasizing practical lessons learnt during training or incidents as well as feedback from instrumentation capability assessment. The objectives of the Workshop were therefore: - to exchange information on recent and current activities in the area of operator training for SAM, and lessons learnt during the management of real incidents ('operator' is defined hear as all personnel involved in SAM); - to compare capabilities and use of instrumentation available during severe accidents; - to monitor progress made; - to identify and discuss differences between approaches relevant to reactor safety; - and to make recommendations to the Working Group on the Analysis and Management of Accidents and the CSNI (GAMA). The meeting confirmed that only limited information is needed for making required decisions for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed

  16. 46 CFR 126.110 - Inspection after accident.

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inspection after accident. 126.110 Section 126.110... CERTIFICATION General § 126.110 Inspection after accident. (a) The owner or operator of an OSV shall make the vessel available for inspection by a marine inspector— (1) Each time an accident occurs, or a defect...

  17. Endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation do not influence ablation success, recurrence-free survival or differentiated thyroid cancer-related mortality

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Riemann, Burkhard [University Hospital Muenster, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Muenster (Germany); Maeder, Uwe; Reiners, Christoph [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); Verburg, Frederik A. [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); RWTH University Hospital Aachen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Aachen (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Based on a single older study it is established dogma that TSH levels should be ≥30 mU/l at the time of postoperative {sup 131}I ablation in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. We sought to determine whether endogenous TSH levels, i.e. after levothyroxine withdrawal, at the time of ablation influence ablation success rates, recurrence-free survival and DTC-related mortality. A total of 1,873 patients without distant metastases referred for postoperative adjuvant {sup 131}I therapy were retrospectively included from 1991 onwards. Successful ablation was defined as stimulated Tg <1 μg/l. Age, gender and the presence of lymph node metastases were independent determinants of TSH levels at the time of ablation. TSH levels were not significantly related to ablation success rates (p = 0.34), recurrence-free survival (p = 0.29) or DTC -elated mortality (p = 0.82), but established risk factors such as T-stage, lymph node metastases and age were. Ablation was successful in 230 of 275 patients (83.6 %) with TSH <30 mU/l and in 1,359 of 1,598 patients (85.0 %) with TSH ≥30 mU/l. The difference was not significant (p = 0.55). Of the whole group of 1,873 patients, 21 had recurrent disease. There were no significant differences in recurrence rates between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.16). Ten of the 1,873 patients died of DTC. There were no significant differences in DTC-specific survival between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.53). The precise endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation are not related to the ablation success rates, recurrence free survival and DTC related mortality. The established dogma that TSH levels need to be ≥30 mU/l at the time of {sup 131}I ablation can be discarded. (orig.)

  18. A Fractional Survival Model

    Lee, Cheng K.; Lee, Jenq-Daw

    2006-01-01

    A survival model is derived from the exponential function using the concept of fractional differentiation. The hazard function of the proposed model generates various shapes of curves including increasing, increasing-constant-increasing, increasing-decreasing-increasing, and so-called bathtub hazard curve. The model also contains a parameter that is the maximum of the survival time.

  19. Survival Benefits With Artificial Liver Support System for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Time Series-Based Meta-Analysis.

    Shen, Yi; Wang, Xu-Lin; Wang, Bin; Shao, Jian-Guo; Liu, Yan-Mei; Qin, Yan; Wang, Lu-Jun; Qin, Gang

    2016-01-01

    The artificial liver support system (ALSS) offers the potential to improve the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the literature has been inconsistent on its survival benefits. We aimed to conduct a time series-based meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational studies which examined differences in mortality in ACLF patients treated with ALSS or not.MEDLINE, EMBASE, OVID, and COCHRANE library database were systemically searched up to December 2014. Quality of included studies was evaluated using the Jadad score. The outcome measure was mortality at different follow-up endpoints. Odds ratios (ORs) and survival curve data were pooled for analysis.Ten studies, 7 RCTs, and 3 controlled cohorts were enrolled, involving a total of 1682 ACLF patients, among whom 842 were treated with ALSS. ALSS was found to reduce the risk of short-term (1-month and 3-month) mortality for patients with ACLF by nearly 30%. Randomized trials and observational studies provided good internal and external validity respectively. The combined Kaplan-Meier curves showed a consistent pattern of findings. Meta-analysis also suggested that ALSS might reduce medium-term (6-month and 1-year) mortality risk by 30% and long-term (3-year) mortality risk by 50% in ACLF patients.ALSS therapy could reduce short-term mortality in patients with ACLF. Meanwhile, its impacts on medium- and long-term survival seem to be promising but remained inconclusive. Clinical utility of this system for survival benefit may be implied. PMID:26817889

  20. Fukushima-Daiichi after the severe accident (estimation)

    All facts about the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP and about the accident known at the time of publication are summarized and expected remedial actions and consequences of the accidents are deduced. The paper is structured as follows: (1) Accident initiation is known; (2) Logically inferred results; (3) Framework identification; (4) Survey; and (5) Economic and strategic impacts of the accident. Worldwide solidarity is mentioned in conclusion. (P.A.)

  1. The medical investigation of airship accidents.

    Stahl, C J; McMeekin, R R; Ruehle, C J; Canik, J J

    1988-07-01

    A review of the autopsy reports for 18 of 21 victims in 3 of the 4 nonrigid Navy airship accidents during the period 1955 to 1966 revealed that the patterns of injury, complicated by postcrash entrapment, immersion, or fire, are similar to the injuries observed in the low-speed, low-altitude crashes of rigid airships and of light aircraft. With the renewed interest in the development of airships for military purposes, there is a need for improved design related to crashworthiness and to aircrew habitability, safety, restraint, and egress in order to enhance the chance for survival in the event of an accident. PMID:3171506

  2. Low level waste shipment accident lessons learned

    On October 1, 1994 a shipment of low-level waste from the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio, was involved in an accident near Rolla, Missouri. The accident did not result in the release of any radioactive material. The accident did generate important lessons learned primarily in the areas of driver and emergency response communications. The shipment was comprised of an International Standards Organization (ISO) container on a standard flatbed trailer. The accident caused the low-level waste package to separate from the trailer and come to rest on its top in the median. The impact of the container with the pavement and median inflicted relatively minor damage to the container. The damage was not substantial enough to cause failure of container integrity. The success of the package is attributable to the container design and the packaging procedures used at the Fernald Environmental Management Project for low-level waste shipments. Although the container survived the initial wreck, is was nearly breached when the first responders attempted to open the ISO container. Even though the container was clearly marked and the shipment documentation was technically correct, this information did not identify that the ISO container was the primary containment for the waste. The lessons learned from this accident have DOE complex wide applicability. This paper is intended to describe the accident, subsequent emergency response operations, and the lessons learned from this incident

  3. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R2 between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R2 was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core

  4. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H; Sekiya, N; Masutani, Y; Sakumi, A; Mukasa, A; Nakagawa, K [The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, JP (Japan)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by

  5. Framework for accident management

    A program is being conducted to establish those attributes of a severe accident management plan which are necessary to assure effective response to all credible severe accidents and to develop guidance for their incorporation in a plant's Accident Management Plan. This program is one part of the Accident Management Research Program being conducted by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The approach used in establishing attributes and developing guidance includes three steps. In the first step the general attributes of an accident management plan were identified based on: (1) the objectives established for the NRC accident management program, (2) the elements of an accident management framework identified by the NRC, and (3) a review of the processes used in developing the currently used approach for classifying and analyzing accidents. For the second step, a process was defined that uses the general attributes identified from the first step to develop an accident management plan. The third step applied the process defined in the second step at a nuclear power plant to refine and develop it into a benchmark accident management plan. Step one is completed, step two is underway and step three has not yet begun

  6. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Road Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

    Alma Aubakirova

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The article provides the analysis of death rates in road traffic accidents in Kazakhstan from 2004 to 2010 and explores the use of sanitary aviation.Methods: Data of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents were collected and analysed. Descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology and biomedical statistics were applied.Results: Totaly 27,003 people died as a result of road traffic accidents in this period. The death rate for the total population due to road traffic accidents was 25.0±2.10/0000. The death rate for men was (38.3±3.20/0000, which was higher (P<0.05 than that for women (12.6±1.10/0000. High death rates in the entire male population were identified among men of 30-39 years old, whereas the highest rates for women were attributed to the groups of 50-59 years old and 70-79 years old. In time dynamics, death rates tended to decrease: the total population (Тdec=−2.4%, men (Тdec=−2.3% and women (Тdec=−1.4%. When researching territorial relevance, the rates were established as low (to 18.30/0000, average (between18.3 and24.00/0000 and high (from 24.00/0000 and above. Thus, the regions with high rates included Akmola region (24.30/0000, Mangistau region (25.90/0000, Zhambyl region (27.30/0000, Almaty region (29.30/0000 and South Kazakhstan region (32.40/0000.Conclusion: The identified epidemiological characteristics of the population deaths rates from road traffic accidents should be used in integrated and targeted interventions to enhance prevention of injuries in accidents.

  8. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  9. Investigation of Qom Rural Area Water Network Accident in 2010 and Minimization Approaches of Accident Frequencies

    Hossein Jafari Mansoorian

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study : Accidents in water networks can lead to increase the uncounted water, costs of repair, maintenance, restoration and enter water contaminants to water network. The aim of this study is to survey the accidents of Qom rural water network and choose the right approaches to reduce the number of accidents. Materials & Methods: In this cross-sectional study, four sector of Qom province (Markazi, Dastjerd, Kahak and Qahan, were assessed over a period of 8 months (July – January 2010. This study was conducted through questionnaire of Ministry of Energy. Results: The total number of accidents was 763. The highest number of accidents in the four sectors was related to Markazi sector with 228 accidents. According to the time of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to September (19.7% and November (6.8%, respectively. According to the location of the accident on network, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to distribution network (64% and connections (17.5% and transmission pipe (18.34%, respectively. According to the type of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to breaking (47.8% and gasket failure (1.2%, respectively. Considering with the pipes’ material, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to polyethylene pipes (93% and steel and cast iron pipes (0.5%, 0.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Due to the high break rate of Polyethylene pipes, it is recommended to be placed in priority of leak detection and rehabilitation.   .

  10. Relationship Between Radiation Treatment Time and Overall Survival After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Head-and-Neck Carcinoma: A Subset Analysis of TAX 324

    Purpose: To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). Methods and Materials: TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of ≥ 70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary (≤ 8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Results: A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p = 0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p = 0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. Conclusions: In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential

  11. Relationship Between Radiation Treatment Time and Overall Survival After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Head-and-Neck Carcinoma: A Subset Analysis of TAX 324

    Sher, David J., E-mail: dsher@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Posner, Marshall R. [Division of Hematology/Oncology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Tishler, Roy B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Sarlis, Nicholas J. [Sanofi-Aventis US, Bridgewater, NJ (United States); Haddad, Robert I. [Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Holupka, Edward J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (Israel); Devlin, Phillip M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Purpose: To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). Methods and Materials: TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of {>=} 70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary ({<=} 8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Results: A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p = 0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p = 0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. Conclusions: In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential

  12. New technology for accident prevention

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  13. Iodine release characteristic in reactor accidents

    The author describes the chemical behavior for the iodine release from the fuel element in nuclear reactor accidents, partition coefficient in the water and air and the release characteristic in time. The research of the iodine release was suggested

  14. Structural and containment response to LMFBR accidents

    The adequacy of the containment of fast reactors has been traditionally evaluated by analyzing the response of the containment to a spectrum of core disruptive accidents. The current approach in the U.S. is to consider fast reactor response to accidents in terms of four lines of assurance (LOAs). Thus, LOA-1 is to prevent accidents, LOA-2 is to limit core damage, LOA-3 is to control accident progression and LOA-4 is to attenuate radiological consequences. Thus, the programs on the adequacy of containment response fall into LOA-3. Significant programs to evaluate the response of the containment to core disruptive accidents and, thereby, to assure control of accident progression are in progress. These include evaluating the mechanical response of the primary system to core disruptive accidents and evaluating the thermal response of the reactor structures to core melting, including the effects this causes on the secondary containment. The analysis of structural response employs calculated pressure-volume-time loading functions. The results of the analyses establish the response of the containment to the prescribed loadings. The analysis of thermal response requires an assessment of the distribution and state of the fuel, fission products and activated materials from accident initiation to final disposition in a stable configuration

  15. Does the Benefit on Survival from Leisure Time Physical Activity Depend on Physical Activity at Work? A Prospective Cohort Study

    Andreas Holtermann; Jacob Louis Marott; Finn Gyntelberg; Karen Søgaard; Poul Suadicani; Ole Steen Mortensen; Eva Prescott; Peter Schnohr

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. METHODS: In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time phys...

  16. National registration of accidents in Iceland.

    Olafsson, O; Axelsson, J

    1992-01-01

    Community based registration of accidents has been employed in Iceland from 1987. A form developed in the emergency ward at the city Hospital of Reykjavik has been used for the registration. The following issues have been registered: the type and the seriousness of the injury, treatment, place of accident and time of accident. Health centres in Iceland have been computerized from 1976. At the time being about half of the health centres participate in the registration with the information included in the form as the source. Every health center has its well defined district. The accidents among the inhabitants in each district is registered, while accidents among other people, e.g. tourists, is registered separately. At this moment 183,000 out of a total number of 259,000 inhabitants are covered by the registration, i.e. 71% of the population. In 1989 the frequency of accidents was 198 per 100,000 inhabitants. 26% of the accidents occurred at home, 11% at work, 9% during physical activity, 6% was traffic accidents, whereas the same proportion occurred at school. This registration system has been created as a result of annual conferences on accidents arranged by the Director General of public health since 1984. Representatives for the following parties have been invited; medical doctors working in hospitals and health centres, clinical nurses, physiotherapists, the National Insurance Service, other insurance companies, rescue and ambulance personal, fire departments, the Automobile Association, the communication Council. Local communities members of the parliament, voluntary organizations, e.g. Red Cross, the Sea Rescue Service and the Aviation Board. This activity has stimulated measures aiming at preventing accidents in several local communities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:1285816

  17. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  18. The Chernobyl accident consequences

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  19. Communication and industrial accidents

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the concept of role distance, which emphasizes the organizational characteristics. The general hypothesis is that communication failures are a main cause of role distance and accident-proneness within orga...

  20. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  1. Nuclear accidents and epidemiology

    A consultation on epidemiology related to the Chernobyl accident was held in Copenhagen in May 1987 as a basis for concerted action. This was followed by a joint IAEA/WHO workshop in Vienna, which reviewed appropriate methodologies for possible long-term effects of radiation following nuclear accidents. The reports of these two meetings are included in this volume, and cover the subjects: 1) Epidemiology related to the Chernobyl nuclear accident. 2) Appropriate methodologies for studying possible long-term effects of radiation on individuals exposed in a nuclear accident. Figs and tabs

  2. Difference in Restricted Mean Survival Time for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis: Evidence from a Case Study

    Lueza, Béranger; Mauguen, Audrey; Pignon, Jean-Pierre; Rivero-Arias, Oliver; Bonastre, Julia

    2016-01-01

    Objective In economic evaluation, a commonly used outcome measure for the treatment effect is the between-arm difference in restricted mean survival time (rmstD). This study illustrates how different survival analysis methods can be used to estimate the rmstD for economic evaluation using individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Our aim was to study if/how the choice of a method impacts on cost-effectiveness results. Methods We used IPD from the Meta-Analysis of Radiotherapy in Lung Cancer concerning 2,000 patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, included in ten trials. We considered methods either used in the field of meta-analysis or in economic evaluation but never applied to assess the rmstD for economic evaluation using IPD meta-analysis. Methods were classified into two approaches. With the first approach, the rmstD is estimated directly as the area between the two pooled survival curves. With the second approach, the rmstD is based on the aggregation of the rmstDs estimated in each trial. Results The average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and acceptability curves were sensitive to the method used to estimate the rmstD. The estimated rmstDs ranged from 1.7 month to 2.5 months, and mean ICERs ranged from € 24,299 to € 34,934 per life-year gained depending on the chosen method. At a ceiling ratio of € 25,000 per life year-gained, the probability of the experimental treatment being cost-effective ranged from 31% to 68%. Conclusions This case study suggests that the method chosen to estimate the rmstD from IPD meta-analysis is likely to influence the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. PMID:26960150

  3. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    G. Wotawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean

  4. Surviving Cancer

    ... his or her health status, when diagnosed with cancer may have an effect on their survival and recovery. Older adults are more likely to have other health conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. Managing these conditions can complicate ...

  5. Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

    Hiemstra, Marieke; Otten, Roy; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves of the ‘Family and Health’ project. In total, 428 adolescents and their parents participated at baseline. Only never smokers were included at baseline (n = 272). A life table and Kaplan–Meier survi...

  6. Role functioning before start of adjuvant treatment was an independent prognostic factor for survival and time to failure. A report from the Nordic adjuvant interferon trial for patients with high-risk melanoma

    Brandberg, Yvonne; Johansson, Hemming; Aamdal, Steinar;

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the role of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at randomization as independent prognostic factors for survival and time to failure, and to explore associations between HRQoL and treatment effects....

  7. Expression of the macrophage antigen CD163 in rectal cancer cells is associated with early local recurrence and reduced survival time.

    Shabo, Ivan; Olsson, Hans; Sun, Xiao-Feng; Svanvik, Joar

    2009-10-15

    Expression of the macrophage antigen CD163 in breast cancer cells is recently shown to be related to early distant recurrence and shortened survival. In this study, 163 patients with rectal cancer, included in the Swedish rectal cancer trial and followed up for a median of 71 months, were examined for the expression of CD163 in the primary tumors. The cancer cells expressed CD163 in the primary tumors in 23% (n = 32) of the patients. In pretreatment biopsies from 101 patients, 10 had CD163-positive cancers and these patients had earlier local recurrence (p CD163-negative tumors. When studying surgical specimens from 61 patients randomized to preoperative irradiation (5 x 5 Gy delivered in 1 week), it was found that 31% were CD163 positive whereas the corresponding figure was only 17% for 78 patients who were nonirradiated (p CD163-positive tumors there was a reduced apoptotic activity as measured with the Termina deoxynucleotidyl Transferase Biotin-dUTP Nick End Labeling (TUNEL) technique (p = 0.018). There tended also to be an increased proliferation activity measured as an expression of Ki-67 non significant (NS). It is concluded that primary rectal cancers may express CD-163, and this phenotypic macrophage trait is related to early local recurrence, shorter survival time and reduced apoptosis. Furthermore, the expression of CD163 is more common after irradiation. PMID:19582880

  8. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0

  9. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    Mould, Richard F.; Lahanas, Michael; Asselain, Bernard; Brewster, David; Burgers, Sjaak A.; Damhuis, Ronald A. M.; DeRycke, Yann; Gennaro, Valerio; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila

    2004-09-01

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0.

  10. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    Mould, Richard F [41 Ewhurst Avenue, South Croydon, Surrey CR2 0DH (United Kingdom); Lahanas, Michael [Klinikum Offenbach, Strahlenklinik, 66 Starkenburgring, 63069 Offenbach am Main (Germany); Asselain, Bernard [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Brewster, David [Director, Scottish Cancer Registry, Information Services (NHS National Services Scotland) Area 155, Gyle Square, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh EH12 9EB (United Kingdom); Burgers, Sjaak A [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Plesmanlaan 121, 1066 CX Amsterdam, The (Netherlands); Damhuis, Ronald A M [Rotterdam Cancer Registry, Rochussenstraat 125, PO Box 289, 3000 AG Rotterdam, The (Netherlands); Rycke, Yann De [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Gennaro, Valerio [Liguria Mesothelioma Cancer Registry, Etiology and Epidemiology Department, National Cancer Research Institute, Pad. Maragliano, Largo R Benzi, 10-16132 Genoa (Italy); Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila [Department of Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology, National Institute of Occupational Medicine, PO Box 199, Swietej Teresy od Dzieciatka Jezus 8, 91-348 Lodz (Poland)

    2004-09-07

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0.

  11. Licensing topical report: the measurement and modelling of time-dependent fission product release from failed HTGR fuel particles under accident conditions

    The release of fission products from failed fuel particles was measured under simulated accident (core heatup) conditions. A generic model and specific model parameters that describe delayed fission product release from the kernels of failed HTGR fuel particles were developed from the experimental results. The release of fission products was measured from laser-failed BISO ThO2 and highly enriched (HEU) TRISO UC2 particles that had been irradiated to a range of kernel burnups. The burnups were 0.25, 1.4, and 15.7% FIMA for ThO2 particles and 23.5 and 74% FIMA for UC2 particles. The fission products measured were nuclides of xenon, iodine, krypton, tellurium, and cesium

  12. Criticality accident in Argentina

    A recent criticality type accident, ocurred in Argetina, is commented. Considerations about the nature of the facility where this accident took place, its genesis, type of operation carried out on the day of the event, and the medical aspects involved are done. (Author)

  13. Chernobyl accident and Danmark

    The report describes the Chernobyl accident and its consequences for Denmark in particular. It was commissioned by the Secretary of State for the Environment. Volume 1 contains copies of original documents issued by Danish authorities during the first accident phase and afterwards. Evaluations, monitoring data, press releases, legislation acts etc. are included. (author)

  14. Radiation accidents in hospitals

    Some of the radiation accidents that have occurred in Indian hospitals and causes that led to them are reviewed. Proper organization of radiation safety minimizes such accidents. It has been pointed out that there must be technical competence and mental preparedness to tackle emergencies when they do infrequently occur. (M.G.B.)

  15. Communication and industrial accidents

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the conc

  16. Chernobyl accident and Denmark

    The report describes the Chernobyl accident and its consequences for Denmark in particular. It was commissioned by The Secretary of State for the Environment. Volume 2 contains copies of original documents issued by Danish authorities during the first accident phase and afterwards. Evaluations, monitoring data, press releases, legislation acts etc. are included. (author)

  17. Experimental study on the survival of the water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms--Pontederiaceae) under different oil doses and times of exposure.

    Lopes, Aline; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez

    2014-12-01

    In the last decades, petroleum activities have increased in the Brazilian Amazon where there is oil exploration on the Urucu River, a tributary of the Amazon River, about 600 km from the city of Manaus. Particularly, transportation via the Amazon River to reach the oil refinery in Manaus may compromise the integrity of the large floodplains that flank hundreds of kilometers of this major river. In the Amazon floodplains, plant growth and nutrient cycling are related to the flood pulse. When oil spills occur, floating oil on the water surface is dispersed through wind and wave action in the littoral region, thus affecting the vegetation of terrestrial and aquatic environments. If pollutants enter the system, they are absorbed by plants and distributed in the food chain via plant consumption, mortality, and decomposition. The effect of oil on the growth and survival of vegetation in these environments is virtually unknown. The water hyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms] has a pantropical distribution but is native to the Amazon, often growing in high-density populations in the floodplains where it plays an important role as shelter and food source for aquatic and terrestrial biota. The species is well known for its high capacity to absorb and tolerate high levels of heavy metal ions. To study the survival and response of water hyacinth under six different oil doses, ranging from 0 to 150 ml l(-1), and five exposure times (1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 days), young individuals distributed in a completely randomized design experiment composed of vessels with a single individual each were followed over a 50-day period (30-day acclimatization, 20 days under oil treatments). Growth parameters, biomass, visual changes in the plants, and pH were recorded at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 days. Increasing the time of oil exposure caused a decrease in biomass, ratio of live/dead biomass and length of leaves, and an increase in the number of dead leaves. Dose of oil and time of exposure

  18. Accidents with orphan sources

    The International Atomic Energy Agency has specifically defined statutory functions relating to the development of standards of safety and the provision for their application. It also has responsibilities placed on it by virtue of a number of Conventions, two of which are relevant to nuclear accidents or radiological emergencies - the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident and the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency. An overview of the way in which these functions are being applied to prevent and respond to radiological accidents, particularly those involving orphan sources, is described in this paper. Summaries of a number of such accidents and of the Agency's Action Plan relating to the safety and security of radiation sources are given. (orig.)

  19. Accidents in radiotherapy: Lack of quality assurance?

    About 150 radiological accidents, involving more than 3000 patients with adverse effects, 15 patient's fatalities and about 5000 staff and public exposures have been collected and analysed. Out of 67 analysed accidents in external beam therapy 22% has been caused by wrong calculation of the exposure time or monitor units, 13% by inadequate review of patient's chart, 12% by mistakes in the anatomical area to be treated. The remaining 35% can be attributed to 17 different causes. The most common mistakes in brachytherapy were wrong activities of sources used for treatment (20%), inadequate procedures for placement of sources applicators (14%), mistakes in calculating the treatment time (12%), etc. The direct and contributing causes of radiological accidents have been deduced from each event, when it was possible and categorized into 9 categories: mistakes in procedures (30%), professional mistakes (17%), communication mistakes (15%), lack of training (8.5%), interpretation mistakes (7%), lack of supervision (6%), mistakes in judgement (6%), hardware failures (5%), software and other mistakes (5.5%). Three types of direct and contributing causes responsible for almost 62% of all accidents are directly connected to the quality assurance of treatment. The lessons learnt from the accidents are related to frequencies of direct and contributing factors and show that most of the accident are caused by lack, non-application of quality assurance (QA) procedures or by underestimating of QA procedures. The international system for collection of accidents and dissemination of lessons learnt from the different accidents, proposed by IAEA, can contribute to better practice in many radiotherapy departments. Most of the accidents could have been avoided, had a comprehensive QA programme been established and properly applied in all radiotherapy departments, whatever the size. (author)

  20. Accident report 1975/76

    The statistics previously published on the development of accidents were completed. It is the purpose of this accident report: 1) to present a survey of the development of the number of accidents (no radiation accidents) for the years 1960 - 1976, 2) to break down the accidents by different characteristics in order to be able to recognize the preventive measures to be taken so as to avoid further accidents, 3) to report about accidents experienced and to indicate activities performed with respect to accident prevention and health protection. (orig.)

  1. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    G. Wotawa

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3–7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and

  2. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Wotawa, G.

    2012-05-01

    Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0-13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1-24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0-13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3-7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and climate model predictions.

  3. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  4. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked separately

  5. Upper respiratory tract illnesses and accidents.

    Smith, A P; Harvey, I; Richmond, P; Peters, T J; Thomas, M; Brockman, P

    1994-07-01

    Anecdotal accounts suggest that colds and influenza may increase human error. This view is supported by laboratory studies of the effects of upper respiratory tract illnesses (URTIs) on performance efficiency, which have shown that both experimentally induced and naturally occurring URTIs reduce aspects of performance efficiency. The present research examined the relationship between accidents and URTIs by studying 923 patients attending an Accident and Emergency department at a time of year when upper respiratory tract viruses were circulating. The results revealed no significant associations between URTIs and workplace accidents, and, similarly, no significant associations emerged when all accidents were compared with other attenders. The only effect which was close to statistical significance was a protective effect of influenza against workplace accidents, which could be explained in terms of a person with influenza or who has recently had influenza being less likely to work and therefore less likely to be at risk of experiencing a workplace accident. Further research must examine this topic with different methodologies, such as selecting controls from fellow workers of the index case, and these studies will provide us with a clearer view as to whether or not there is an association between URTIs and workplace accidents. PMID:7919298

  6. Vehicle accidents related to sleep: a review

    Horne, J.; Reyner, L.

    1999-01-01

    Falling asleep while driving accounts for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents under monotonous driving conditions. Many of these accidents are related to work--for example, drivers of lorries, goods vehicles, and company cars. Time of day (circadian) effects are profound, with sleepiness being particularly evident during night shift work, and driving home afterwards. Circadian factors are as important in determining driver sleepiness as is the duration of the drive, but only ...

  7. Hypertabastic survival model

    Williams David K; Bursac Zoran; Tabatabai Mohammad A; Singh Karan P

    2007-01-01

    Abstract A new two-parameter probability distribution called hypertabastic is introduced to model the survival or time-to-event data. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the hypertabastic distribution in comparison with popular distributions. We then demonstrate the application of the hypertabastic survival model by applying it to data from two motivating studies. The first one demonstrates the proportional hazards version of the model by applying it to a data se...

  8. Database on aircraft accidents

    The Reactor Safety Subcommittee in the Nuclear Safety and Preservation Committee published the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' as the standard method for evaluating probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities in July 2002. In response to the report, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has been collecting open information on aircraft accidents of commercial airplanes, self-defense force (SDF) airplanes and US force airplanes every year since 2003, sorting out them and developing the database of aircraft accidents for latest 20 years to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities. This year, the database was revised by adding aircraft accidents in 2010 to the existing database and deleting aircraft accidents in 1991 from it, resulting in development of the revised 2011 database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010. Furthermore, the flight information on commercial aircrafts was also collected to develop the flight database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities. The method for developing the database of aircraft accidents to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities is based on the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' described above. The 2011 revised database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 shows the followings. The trend of the 2011 database changes little as compared to the last year's one. (1) The data of commercial aircraft accidents is based on 'Aircraft accident investigation reports of Japan transport safety board' of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. 4 large fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 58 small fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 5 large bladed aircraft accidents and 114 small bladed aircraft accidents occurred. The relevant accidents for evaluating

  9. Management of severe accidents

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  10. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  11. Accidents, risks and consequences

    Although the accident at Chernobyl can be considered as the worst accident in the world, it could have been worse. Other far worse situations are considered, such as a nuclear weapon hitting a nuclear reactor. Indeed the accident at Chernobyl is compared to a nuclear weapon. The consequences of Chernobyl in terms of radiation levels are discussed. Although it is believed that a similar accident could not occur in the United Kingdom, that possibility is considered. It is suggested that emergency plans should be made for just such an eventuality. Even if Chernobyl could not happen in the UK, the effects of accidents are international. The way in which nuclear reactor accidents happen is explored, taking the 1957 Windscale fire, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl as examples. Reactor designs and accident scenarios are considered. The different reactor designs are listed. As well as the Chernobyl RBMK design it is suggested that the light water reactors also have undesirable features from the point of view of safety. (U.K.)

  12. Severe accident analysis to verify the effectiveness of severe accident management guidelines for large pressurized heavy water reactor

    Gokhale, O.S., E-mail: onkarsg@barc.gov.in; Mukhopadhyay, D., E-mail: dmukho@barc.gov.in; Lele, H.G., E-mail: hglele@barc.gov.in; Singh, R.K., E-mail: rksingh@barc.gov.in

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • The progression of severe accident initiated from high pressure scenario of station black out has been analyzed using RELAP5/SCDAP. • The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been established through analysis. • The time margin available to invoke the SAMG action has been specified. - Abstract: The pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) contains both inherent and engineered safety features that help the reactor become resistant to severe accident and its consequences. However in case of a low frequency severe accident, despite the safety features, procedural action should be in place to mitigate the accident progression. Severe accident analysis of such low frequency event provides insight into the accident progression and basis to develop the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Since the order of uncertainty in the progression path of severe accident is very high, it is necessary to study the consequences of the SAMG actions prescribed. The paper discusses severe accident analysis for large PHWRs for multiple failure transients involving a high pressure scenario (initiation event like SBO with loss of emergency core cooling system and loss of moderator cooling). SAMG actions prescribed for such a scenario include water injection into steam generator, calandria vessel or calandria vault at different stages of accident. The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been investigated. It is found that there is sufficient time margin available to the operator to execute these SAMG actions and the progression of severe accident is arrested in all the three cases.

  13. Severe accident analysis to verify the effectiveness of severe accident management guidelines for large pressurized heavy water reactor

    Highlights: • The progression of severe accident initiated from high pressure scenario of station black out has been analyzed using RELAP5/SCDAP. • The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been established through analysis. • The time margin available to invoke the SAMG action has been specified. - Abstract: The pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) contains both inherent and engineered safety features that help the reactor become resistant to severe accident and its consequences. However in case of a low frequency severe accident, despite the safety features, procedural action should be in place to mitigate the accident progression. Severe accident analysis of such low frequency event provides insight into the accident progression and basis to develop the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Since the order of uncertainty in the progression path of severe accident is very high, it is necessary to study the consequences of the SAMG actions prescribed. The paper discusses severe accident analysis for large PHWRs for multiple failure transients involving a high pressure scenario (initiation event like SBO with loss of emergency core cooling system and loss of moderator cooling). SAMG actions prescribed for such a scenario include water injection into steam generator, calandria vessel or calandria vault at different stages of accident. The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been investigated. It is found that there is sufficient time margin available to the operator to execute these SAMG actions and the progression of severe accident is arrested in all the three cases

  14. iWitness pollution map: crowdsourcing petrochemical accident research.

    Bera, Risha; Hrybyk, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Community members living near any one of Louisiana's 160 chemical plants or refineries have always said that accidents occurring in these petrochemical facilities significantly impact their health and safety. This article reviews the iWitness Pollution Map tool and Rapid Response Team (RRT) approach led by the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, an environmental nonprofit group, and their effectiveness in documenting these health and safety impacts during petrochemical accidents. Analysis of a January 2013 RRT deployment in Chalmette, LA, showed increased documentation of current petrochemical accidents and suggested increased preparedness to report future accidents. The RRT model encourages government response and enforcement agencies to integrate with organized community groups to fully document the impacts during ongoing accidents, lead a more timely response to the accident, and prevent future accidents from occurring. PMID:24135064

  15. Regulatory effect of fungus origin melanin on the generating rate and content of oxygen radical forms in the liver microsomes of animals which for a long time were hold in the zone of Chernobyl NPP accident

    Using the spin trap and ESR methods, quantitative investigation of the rate of oxygen radical form generation have been carried out in the liver microsome of animals which were staying during during 1,5 years in the area of Chernobyl accident and also after preventive action of fungus melanin produced from Cladosporium cladosporioides (Patent of Ukraine 1523, 15.09.93). For the first time considerable increase (in 3 times) of the rate of peroxide anion radical generation and the content of hydroxyl radicals in the electron transport chain of the endoplasmic reticulum membrane of the liver has been discovered. As it has been found, protective properties of fungus melanin in radiation carcinogenesis under conditions of prolonged action of ionizing radiation of low intensity are in correspondence with reducing of oxygen radical form generation

  16. Computerised severe accident management aids

    operational regimes. If a severe accident situation occurs, CAMS should be able to switch to use and present pre-calculated transients from severe accident codes such as MAAP. Another approach would be to switch from using the SMABRE code to using the on-line MAAP-code [6] for detailed calculations during severe accident states. The switch could be governed by a very simple rule such as 'Switch to the MAAP-code when core temperature > 700 deg. C'. A third approach could be to use the on-line MARS code for the whole programme, but there are several arguments against this. The on-line MARS code is not available at present, and the system is assumed to be expensive. There is not very much information available about the system, and it is unclear how difficult it will be to include MARS in the CAMS design. The MARS code will presumably not be useful for other operational regimes than the most serious ones. It will therefore not meet the stated objectives. In CAMS the possibility to assess different accident management strategies is achieved by means of the strategy generator and the predictive simulator based on the SMABRE code. By means of interaction with the strategy generator and some stored information on accident management principles, it will be possible to formulate a first control strategy. This strategy is given to the predictive simulator that calculates forward in time. The outcome can be studied by the operator /TSC. Such a calculation can be done assuming no operator actions or with operator actions. A realisation of the proposed CAMS system design will accordingly meet the stated objectives both with respect to normal operation, accident and severe accident operational regimes. The modularized flexible design will allow a smooth expansion of the system with new modules. The system is designed around a central database. The inclusion of a more or less complete plant simulator in the plant monitoring system is adding a new dimension to the plant monitoring task. Any

  17. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC......); 59% above 0.08%. In all cases where a pillion passenger was killed, the operator of the motorcycle had a BAC greater than 0.08%. Of the killed counterparts 2 were non-intoxicated, 2 had a BAC greater than 0.08%, and 4 were not tested. The results advocate that the law should restrict alcohol...... consumption by pillion passengers as well as by the motorcycle operator. Suggestions made to extend the data base needed for developing appropriate alcohol countermeasures by collecting sociodemographic data on drivers killed or seriously injured should be supported....

  18. Survival Analysis

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  19. Preliminary safety analysis of the PWR with accident-tolerant fuels during severe accident conditions

    Highlights: • Analysis of severe accident scenarios for a PWR fueled with ATF system is performed. • A large-break LOCA without ECCS is analyzed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • Extended SBO cases are discussed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • The accident-tolerance of ATF system for application in PWR is illustrated. - Abstract: Experience gained in decades of nuclear safety research and previous nuclear accidents direct to the investigation of passive safety system design and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) system which is now becoming a hot research point in the nuclear energy field. The ATF system is aimed at upgrading safety characteristics of the nuclear fuel and cladding in a reactor core where active cooling has been lost, and is preferable or comparable to the current UO2–Zr system when the reactor is in normal operation. By virtue of advanced materials with improved properties, the ATF system will obviously slow down the progression of accidents, allowing wider margin of time for the mitigation measures to work. Specifically, the simulation and analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) without ECCS and extended station blackout (SBO) severe accident are performed for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) loaded with ATF candidates, to reflect the accident-tolerance of ATF

  20. Inoculation of a Poultry Isolate Salmonella enteritidis on Egg Vitelline Membrane: Survival and Growth in Egg Components after Different Refrigeration Storage Times

    Z. R. Howard

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis resistant to novobiocin and nalidixic acid were inoculated on to the surface of the yolk membrane at a concentration of approximately 106 CFU mLˉ1. Yolks were then covered with albumen and incubated for 24 hrs at 25°C. After incubation, eggs were separated into component parts. Samples were removed from yolk, albumen and yolk membrane and diluted 10-fold in sterile phosphate buffered saline. In albumen, S. enteritidis counts were increased in weeks 3 and 8 compared to week 1 (trial 2. The frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis in albumen occurred at week 7 versus weeks 0 and 1 in trial 1 and weeks 3 and 8 versus weeks 0 and 2 in trial 2. In the membrane fraction, the frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis occurred at weeks 5 and 8 versus week 0 in trial 2. In the yolk fractions, S. enteritidis counts recovered from week 6 eggs were significantly higher (PS. enteritidis positive eggs were greater in week 8 than week 5 in trial 1. This suggests that egg components recovered from aged eggs stored at refrigeration temperatures infrequently supported S. enteritidis net growth but generally did not inhibit survivability.

  1. Wireless Reporting System for Accident Detection at Higher Speeds u

    Peddi Anudeep

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Speed is one of the basic reasons for vehicle accident. Many lives could have been saved if emergency service could get accident information and reach in time. Nowadays, GPS has become an integral part of a vehicle system. This paper proposes to utilize the capability of a GPS receiver to monitor speed of a vehicle and detect accident basing on monitored speed and send accident location to an Alert Service Center. The GPS will monitor speed of a vehicle and compare with the previous speed in every second through a Microcontroller Unit. Whenever the speed will be below the specified speed, it will assume that an accident has occurred. The system will then send the accident location acquired from the GPS along with the time and the speed by utilizing the GSM network. This will help to reach the rescue service in time and save the valuable human life.

  2. Applied survival analysis using R

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  3. Deterministic analyses of severe accident issues

    Severe accidents in light water reactors involve complex physical phenomena. In the past there has been a heavy reliance on simple assumptions regarding physical phenomena alongside of probability methods to evaluate risks associated with severe accidents. Recently GE has developed realistic methodologies that permit deterministic evaluations of severe accident progression and of some of the associated phenomena in the case of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These deterministic analyses indicate that with appropriate system modifications, and operator actions, core damage can be prevented in most cases. Furthermore, in cases where core-melt is postulated, containment failure can either be prevented or significantly delayed to allow sufficient time for recovery actions to mitigate severe accidents

  4. Emergency Response to Radioactive Material Transport Accidents

    Although transport regulations issued by IAEA is providing a high degree of safety during transport opertions,transport accidents involving packages containing radioactive material have occurred and will occur at any time. Whenever a transport accident involving radioactive material accurs, and many will pose no radiation safety problems, emergency respnose actioms are meeded to ensure that radiation safety is maintained. In case of transport accident that result in a significant relesae of radioactive material , loss of shielding or loss of criticality control , that consequences should be controlled or mitigated by proper emergency response actions safety guide, Emergency Response Plamming and Prepardness for transport accidents involving radioactive material, was published by IAEA. This guide reflected all requirememts of IAEA, regulations for safe transport of radioactive material this guide provide guidance to the publicauthorites and other interested organziation who are responsible for establishing such emergency arrangements

  5. Safety analysis of surface haulage accidents

    Randolph, R.F.; Boldt, C.M.K.

    1996-12-31

    Research on improving haulage truck safety, started by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, is being continued by its successors. This paper reports the orientation of the renewed research efforts, beginning with an update on accident data analysis, the role of multiple causes in these accidents, and the search for practical methods for addressing the most important causes. Fatal haulage accidents most often involve loss of control or collisions caused by a variety of factors. Lost-time injuries most often involve sprains or strains to the back or multiple body areas, which can often be attributed to rough roads and the shocks of loading and unloading. Research to reduce these accidents includes improved warning systems, shock isolation for drivers, encouraging seatbelt usage, and general improvements to system and task design.

  6. Internal dose assessment in radiation accidents

    Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs of interest need to be computed from first principles. Standard bioassay methods may be used to assess body contents, but, again, the standard models for bioassay interpretation may not be applicable because of the circumstances of the accident and the prompt initiation of decorporation therapy. Examples of modifications to the standard methodologies include adjustment of biological half-times under therapy, such as in the Goiania accident, and the same effect, complicated by continued input from contaminated wounds, in the Hanford 241Am accident. (author)

  7. Soviet submarine accidents

    Although the Soviet Union has more submarines than the NATO navies combined, and the technological superiority of western submarines is diminishing, there is evidence that there are more accidents with Soviet submarines than with western submarine fleets. Whether this is due to inadequate crews or lower standards of maintenance and overhaul procedures is discussed. In particular, it is suggested that since the introduction of nuclear powered submarines, the Soviet submarine safety record has deteriorated. Information on Soviet submarine accidents is difficult to come by, but a list of some 23 accidents, mostly in nuclear submarines, between 1966 and 1986, has been compiled. The approximate date, class or type of submarine, the nature and location of the accident, the casualties and damage and the source of information are tabulated. (U.K.)

  8. Accident resistant transport container

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  9. Boating Accident Statistics

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  10. Talking about accidents

    It is argued that the public's emotional fear of the hypothetical, very unlikely, gigantic nuclear accident is partly caused by the nuclear industry's incorrect use of language within its own professional discussions. Improved terminology is suggested. (U.K.)

  11. FATAL ACCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (FARS)

    The Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) database consist of three relational tables, containing data on automobile accidents on public U.S. roads that resulted in the death of one or more people within 30 days of the accident. Truck and trailer accidents are also included.

  12. The Chernobyl accident

    In connection with the Chernobyl accident the report gives a description of the technical features of importance to the accident, the course of events, and the estimated health hazards in the local environment. Dissimilarities in western and Sovjet reactor safety philosophy are dealt with, as well as conceivable concequences in relation to technology and research in western nuclear power programmes. Results of activity level measurements of air and foodstuff, made in Norway by Institute for Energy Technology, are given

  13. Time to unrelated donor leukocyte infusion is longer, but incidence of GVHD and overall survival are similar for recipients of unrelated DLI compared to matched sibling DLI.

    Kumar, Anita J; Vassilev, Pavel; Loren, Alison W; Luger, Selina M; Reshef, Ran; Gill, Saar; Smith, Jacqueline; Goldstein, Steven C; Hexner, Elizabeth; Stadtmauer, Edward A; Porter, David; Frey, Noelle V

    2016-06-01

    Donor leukocyte infusion (DLI) is used to treat relapsed leukemia after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT). Data comparing outcomes after unrelated DLI (uDLI) to matched sibling DLI (msDLI) are scant. We performed a retrospective analysis to assess differences in time to administer uDLI versus msDLI, and impact on outcomes. Fifty three patients with relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) after allogeneic HCT received uDLI (n = 18) or msDLI (n = 35) from 2000 to 2011. Median time from relapse to uDLI request was 15 days (range 0-66). Median time from relapse to uDLI was 56 days versus 40 days for msDLI patients (p = 0.034). 35% of msDLI and 44% of uDLI patients developed acute GVHD (p = 0.50). There was no significant difference in Grade C/D GVHD among uDLI and msDLI (28% and 21%, p = 0.58) or median OS after DLI between uDLI and msDLI (95 versus 75 days, p = 0.76). For patients with relapsed acute leukemia and MDS after allogeneic HCT, time from relapse to uDLI was longer than to msDLI, but incidence of GVHD and overall survival were similar. Access to uDLI does not appear to be a barrier to DLI administration. Outcomes unfortunately remain poor regardless of donor source. Am. J. Hematol. 91:426-429, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26820493

  14. Accident and emergency management

    There is an increasing potential for severe accidents as the industrial development tends towards large, centralised production units. In several industries this has led to the formation of large organisations which are prepared for accidents fighting and for emergency management. The functioning of these organisations critically depends upon efficient decision making and exchange of information. This project is aimed at securing and possibly improving the functionality and efficiency of the accident and emergency management by verifying, demonstrating, and validating the possible use of advanced information technology in the organisations mentioned above. With the nuclear industry in focus the project consists of five main activities: 1) The study and detailed analysis of accident and emergency scenarios based on records from incidents and rills in nuclear installations. 2) Development of a conceptual understanding of accident and emergency management with emphasis on distributed decision making, information flow, and control structure sthat are involved. 3) Development of a general experimental methodology for evaluating the effects of different kinds of decision aids and forms of organisation for emergency management systems with distributed decision making. 4) Development and test of a prototype system for a limited part of an accident and emergency organisation to demonstrate the potential use of computer and communication systems, data-base and knowledge base technology, and applications of expert systems and methods used in artificial intelligence. 5) Production of guidelines for the introduction of advanced information technology in the organisations based on evaluation and validation of the prototype system. (author)

  15. Accident management information needs

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  16. Time to Let Go of the Illusion that Psychotherapy Extends the Survival of Cancer Patients: Reply to Kraemer, Kuchler, and Spiegel (2009)

    Coyne, James C.; Thombs, Brett D.; Stefanek, Michael; Palmer, Steven C.

    2009-01-01

    Replies to comments from Kraemer, Kuchler, and Spiegel on the authors original article Psychotherapy and survival in cancer: The conflict between hope and evidence. The authors recently reviewed evidence related to the notion that psychotherapy extends survival in cancer patients (J. C. Coyne, M. Stefanek, & S. C. Palmer, 2007). The authors found…

  17. Historical aspects of radiation accidents

    Radiation accidents are extremely rare events; however, the last two years have witnessed the largest radiation accidents in both the eastern and western hemispheres. It is the purpose of this chapter to review how radiation accidents are categorized, examine the temporal changes in frequency and severity, give illustrative examples of several types of radiation accidents, and finally, to describe the various registries for radiation accidents

  18. Cyclical Fluctuations in Workplace Accidents

    Boone, J.; van Ours, J.C.

    2002-01-01

    This Paper presents a theory and an empirical investigation on cyclical fluctuations in workplace accidents. The theory is based on the idea that reporting an accident dents the reputation of a worker and raises the probability that he is fired. Therefore a country with a high or an increasing unemployment rate has a low (reported) workplace accident rate. The empirical investigation concerns workplace accidents in OECD countries. The analysis confirms that workplace accident rates are invers...

  19. Radiation accidents and defence of population

    Full text: Development of nuclear physics, the fundamental and the applied researches in the field of radioactive insured wide possibility for application of radionuclides and ionizing radiation source in the different fields of national economy. Application of radionuclides in chemical, metallurgical, food industry, in agriculture and etc. Fields provide a large economic profit. It's hard to apprise significance of ionizing radiation source using in medicine for diagnostics and treatment of different disease. Nuclear power engineering and nuclear industry are developing intensively. At same time nuclear power, ionizing radiation sources incur potential treat for surroundings and health of population. As even that stage of protective measure development: there is no possibility of that happening of radiation accidents. A radiation accident qualifies as loss of ionizing radiation sources direction, which provoked by disrepair equipment, natural calamity or other causes which could bring to unplanned irradiation of population or radioactive pollution of surroundings. At present some following typical cases connected with radiation accident have been chosen: Contentious using or keeping of ionizing radiation source with breach of established requires; Loss, theft of ionizing radiation sources or radiation plants, instruments; Leaving the sources of ionizing radiation in the holes; Refusal radiation technic exploited in industry, medicine, SRI and etc; Disrepair in nuclear transport means of conveyance; Crashes and accidents at NPP and at other enterprises of nuclear industry. The radiation accidents according to character, degree and scales have been divided into two groups: Radiation accidents not connected with NPP; Accidents in the nuclear engineering and industry; The radiation accidents not connected with NPP according their consequence divide into 5 groups; accidents which do not come to irradiation of personal, persons from population (more PN-permissible norm

  20. Severe accident management (SAM), operator training and instrumentation capabilities - Summary and conclusions

    for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed to. Though uncertainties still remain in the understanding of some severe accident phenomena, this should not be considered as a de-facto impediment against using simplified models both as operator aids in the course of an accident and as an option of a simulator severe accident mathematical model. These tools, however, should be based on state-of-the-art physics and calibrated using more sophisticated codes. Having the capability for periodic assessment of trends and predictions against real plant parameter evolution, and subsequent correction, is also advised for such tools. Being prepared for the unexpected is the major objective pursued in training, especially when capabilities extend into severe accident situations. When training for severe accidents is contemplated, skill-oriented sessions should be emphasized as they allow evaluating operator reactions in highly perturbed situations. However, it is also advised to increase operator awareness in case of severe accident situations through tailored sessions stressing knowledge of basic phenomena involved in degraded situations. Though computer-based training could well prevail in the long run, table-top exercises as currently implemented by many utilities also bring extremely valuable results

  1. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers...

  2. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

    Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

    2001-05-01

    Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year over the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i

  3. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  4. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  5. [Psychogenesis of accidents].

    Giannattasio, E; Nencini, R; Nicolosi, N

    1988-01-01

    After having carried out a historical review of industrial psychology with specific attention to the evolution of the concept of causality in accidents, the Authors formulate their work hypothesis from that research which take into highest consideration the executives' attitudes in the genesis of the accidents. As dogmatism appears to be one of the most negative of executives' attitudes, the Authors administered Rockeach's Scale to 130 intermediate executives from 6 industries in Latium and observed the frequency index for accidents and the morbidity index (absenteeism) of the 2149 workhand. The Authors assumed that to high degree of dogmatism on the executives' side should correspond o a higher level of accidents and absenteeism among the staff. The data processing revealed that, due to the type of machinery employed, three of the industries examined should be considered as High Risk Industrie (HRI), while the remaining three could be considered as Low Risk Industries (LRI): in fact, due to the different working conditions, a significant lower number of accidents occurred in last the three. A statistically significant correlation between the executives' dogmatism and the number of accidents among their workhand in the HRI has been noticed, while this has not been observed in the LRI. This confirms, as had already been pointed out by Gemelli in 1944, that some "objective conditions" are requested so that the accident may actually take place. On the other hand the morbidity index has not shown any difference related to the different kind of industries (HRI, LRI): in both cases statistically significant correlations were obtained between the executives' dogmatism and the staff's absenteeism. absenteeism.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3154344

  6. Accidents in nuclear ships

    Oelgaard, P.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10{sup -3} per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au).

  7. Accidents in nuclear ships

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10-3 per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au)

  8. PWR pressure vessel integrity during overcooling accidents

    Pressurized water reactors are susceptible to certain types of hypothetical accidents that under some circumstances, including operation of the reactor beyond a critical time in its life, could result in failure of the pressure vessel as a result of propagation of crack-like defects in the vessel wall. The accidents of concern are those that result in thermal shock to the vessel while the vessel is subjected to internal pressure. Such accidents, referred to as pressurized thermal shock or overcooling accidents (OCA), include a steamline break, small-break LOCA, turbine trip followed by stuck-open bypass valves, the 1978 Rancho Seco and the TMI accidents and many other postulated and actual accidents. The source of cold water for the thermal shock is either emergency core coolant or the normal primary-system coolant. ORNL performed fracture-mechanics calculations for a steamline break in 1978 and for a turbine-trip case in 1980 and concluded on the basis of the results that many more such calculations would be required. To meet the expected demand in a realistic way a computer code, OCA-I, was developed that accepts primary-system temperature and pressure transients as input and then performs one-dimensional thermal and stress analyses for the wall and a corresponding fracture-mechanics analysis for a long axial flaw. The code is briefly described, and its use in both generic and specific plant analyses is discussed

  9. Truck accident involving unirradiated nuclear fuel

    In the early morning of Dec. 16, 1991, a severe accident occurred when a passenger vehicle traveling in the wrong direction collided with a tractor trailer carrying 24 unirradiated nuclear fuel assemblies in 12 containers on Interstate I-91 in Springfield, Massachusetts. This paper documents the mechanical circumstances of the accident and assesses the physical environment to which the containers were exposed and the response of the containers and their contents. The accident involved four impacts where the truck was struck by the car, impacted on the center guardrail, impacted on the outer concrete barrier and came to rest against the center guardrail. The impacts were followed by a fire that began in the engine compartment, spread to the tractor and cab, and eventually spread to the trailer and payload. The fire lasted for about three hours and the packages were involved in the fire for about two hours. As a result of the fire, the tractor-trailer was completely destroyed and the packages were exposed to flames with temperatures between 1,300 F and 1,800 F. The fuel assemblies remained intact during the accident and there was no release of any radioactive material during the accident. This was a very severe accident; however, the injuries were minor and at no time was the public health and safety at risk

  10. Truck accident involving unirradiated nuclear fuel

    In the early morning of Dec. 16, 1991, a severe accident occurred when a passenger vehicle traveling in the wrong direction collided with a tractor trailer carrying 24 nuclear fuel assemblies in 12 containers on Interstate 1-91 in Springfield, Massachusetts. This paper documents the mechanical circumstances of the accident and the physical environment to which the containers were exposed and the response of the containers and their contents. The accident involved four impacts where the truck was struck by the car, impacted on the center guardrail, impacted on the outer concrete barrier and came to rest against the center guardrail. The impacts were followed by a fire that began in the engine compartment, spread to the.tractor and cab, and eventually spread to the trailer and payload. The fire lasted for about three hours and the packages were involved in the fire for about two hours. As a result of the fire, the tractor-trailer was completely destroyed and the packages were exposed to flames with temperatures between 1300 degrees F and 1800 degrees F. The fuel assemblies remained intact during the accident and there was no release of any radioactive material during the accident. This was a very severe accident; however, the injuries were minor and at no time was the public health and safety at risk

  11. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions

  12. Sleep restriction reduces the survival time and aggravates the neurological dysfunction and memory impairments in an animal model of cerebral hypoperfusion.

    Kim, Lenise Jihe; Coelho, Fernando Morgadinho; Araujo, Paula; Tedesco, Roberto Carlos; Souza, Rodrigo Barbosa; Tufik, Sergio; Andersen, Monica Levy

    2016-08-01

    Cerebral blood flow is associated with the cerebrovascular prognosis. Sleep restriction (SR) may be a limiting factor of the prognosis after a cerebrovascular event, impairing the neurological recovery. We aimed to investigate the effects of SR on mortality rate and on behavioral and histological parameters of animals submitted to permanent cerebral hypoperfusion. Sixty male Wistar rats were distributed in 4 groups, according to the protocol of common carotid artery occlusion (CCAO) and SR: nSR+nCCAO, SR+nCCAO, nSR+CCAO, and SR+CCAO. The groups SR+nCCAO and SR+CCAO were submitted to SR during 10 days. The cerebral hypoperfusion was induced by the permanent CCAO. Neurological function and memory were assessed over 14 days of cerebral hypoperfusion. Analysis of neuropathological alterations were performed in the CA1 region of hippocampus. The mortality rate was 40% in the nSR+CCAO and SR+CCAO groups. SR significantly reduced the survival time of animals submitted to CCAO. After 7 and 14 days of cerebral hypoperfusion, 11% and 33% of the nSR+CCAO and SR+CCAO animals showed severe neurological dysfunction, respectively. A significant association between a high frequency of memory impairments with the group SR+CCAO was observed. The neuropathological alterations in CA1 region of hippocampus were similar among the groups. SR potentiates the negative effects of cerebral hypoperfusion conditions, suggesting that SR could be a factor associated with a worse prognosis after a cerebrovascular event. PMID:27174002

  13. Chernobyl accident. Exposures and effects

    from the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has given particular attention to the accident. Estimates of average doses in separate regions of countries and for the population of the northern hemisphere as a whole were presented in Annex D of the UNSCEAR 1988 Report. The experience gained in treating the immediate radiation injuries of workers and fire fighters involved in controlling the accident were also reviewed in the UNSCEAR 1988 Report (Annex G). The UNSCEAR Committee is currently involved in the final phase of preparation of a further assessment of the exposures and effects of the accident. During the last several years, considerable attention has been devoted to investigating possible associations between health effects in the populations and the exposure to radionuclides released and dispersed following the Chernobyl accident. Of particular note has been the occurrence of numerous thyroid cancers in children. The number of thyroid cancers in individuals exposed in childhood, particularly in the severely contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine is considerably greater than expected based on previous knowledge. The high incidence and the short induction period have not been experienced in other populations, and other factors are most certainly influencing the risk. If the current trend continues, further thyroid cancers can be expected to occur, especially in those exposed at young ages. The most recent findings indicate that the thyroid cancer risk for those older than 10 years of age at the time of the accident is leveling off, while the increase continues for those younger than 4-5 years in 1986. Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer after childhood exposure, there is no evidence of a major public health impact 14 years after the Chernobyl accident. No increases in overall cancer incidence or mortality have been observed that could be attributed

  14. Density of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes correlates with extent of brain edema and overall survival time in patients with brain metastases

    Berghoff, Anna S; Fuchs, Elisabeth; Ricken, Gerda; Mlecnik, Bernhard; Bindea, Gabriela; Spanberger, Thomas; Hackl, Monika; Widhalm, Georg; Dieckmann, Karin; Prayer, Daniela; Bilocq, Amelie; Heinzl, Harald; Zielinski, Christoph; Bartsch, Rupert; Birner, Peter; Galon, Jerome; Preusser, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    The immune microenvironment of the brain differs from that of other organs and the role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in brain metastases (BM), one of the most common and devastating complication of cancer, is unclear. We investigated TIL subsets and their prognostic impact in 116 BM specimens using immunohistochemistry for CD3, CD8, CD45RO, FOXP3, PD1 and PD-L1. The Immunoscore was calculated as published previously. Overall, we found TIL infiltration in 115/116 (99.1%) BM specimens. PD-L1 expression was evident in 19/67 (28.4%) BM specimens and showed no correlation with TIL density (p > 0.05). TIL density was not associated with corticosteroid administration (p > 0.05). A significant difference in infiltration density according to TIL subtype was present (p < 0.001; Chi Square); high infiltration was most frequently observed for CD3+ TILs (95/116; 81.9%) and least frequently for PD1+ TILs (18/116; 15.5%; p < 0.001). Highest TIL density was observed in melanoma, followed by renal cell cancer and lung cancer BM (p < 0.001). The density of CD8+ TILs correlated positively with the extent of peritumoral edema seen on pre-operative magnetic resonance imaging (p = 0.031). The density of CD3+ (15 vs. 6 mo; p = 0.015), CD8+ (15 vs. 11 mo; p = 0.030) and CD45RO+ TILs (18 vs. 8 mo; p = 0.006) showed a positive correlation with favorable median OS times. Immunoscore showed significant correlation with survival prognosis (27 vs. 10 mo; p < 0.001). The prognostic impact of Immunoscore was independent from established prognostic parameters at multivariable analysis (HR 0.612, p < 0.001). In conclusion, our data indicate that dense TILs infiltrates are common in BM and correlate with the amount of peritumoral brain edema and survival prognosis, thus identifying the immune system as potential biomarker for cancer patients with CNS affection. Further studies are needed to substantiate our findings. PMID:26942067

  15. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

    Eisler, R.

    2003-01-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

  16. Exploring Environmental Effects of Accidents During Marine Transport of Dangerous Goods by Use of Accident Descriptions

    Rømer, Hans Gottberg; Haastrup, P.; Petersen, H J Styhr

    1996-01-01

    On the basis of 1776 descriptions of water transport accidents involving dangerous goods, environmental problems in connection with releases of this kind are described and discussed. It was found that most detailed descriptions of environmental consequences concerned oil accidents, although most of...... the consequences were described as reversible changes. It was shown that crude oil releases, on average, are approximately five times larger than releases of oil products and that oil product releases are approximately five times larger than other chemicals. Only 2% of the 1776 accidents described...... contained information on consequences to living organisms, and only 10% contained any information on consequences to ecosystems. A relationship was found between the minimum kilometers of shore polluted and the tonnes released in the case of shore pollution from oil accidents. Oil slicks were shown to be...

  17. Using MARS to assist in managing a severe accident

    During an accident, information about the current and possible future states of the plant provides guidance for accident managers in evaluating which actions should be taken. However, depending upon the nature of the accident and the stress levels imposed on the plant staff responding to the accident the current and future plant assessments may be very difficult or nearly impossible to perform without supplemental training and/or appropriate tools. The MAAP Accident Response System (MARS) has been developed as a calculational aid to assist the responsible accident management individuals. Specifically MARS provides additional insights on the current and possible future states of the plant during an accident including the influence of operator actions. In addition to serving as a calculational aid, the MARS software can be an effective means for providing supplemental training. The MARS software uses engineering calculations to perform an integral assessment of the plant status including a consistency assessment of the available instrumentation. In addition, it uses the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) to provide near term predictions of the plant response if corrective actions are taken. This paper will discuss the types of information that are beneficial to the accident manager and how MARS addresses each. The MARS calculational functions include: instrumentation, validation and simulation, projected operator response based on the EOPs, as well as estimated timing and magnitude of in-plant and off-site radiation dose releases. Each of these items is influential in the management of a severe accident. (author)

  18. Verification of accident management strategies at the Forsmark plant

    Due to government requirements severe accident mitigating measures were implemented at the Swedish State Power Board nuclear power plants in 1988. These measures included protection against early containment impairment, highly redundant containment spray and filtered venting of the containment. We also developed accident management strategies and corresponding documents to counteract a severe accident situation. This paper describes the accident management strategies and documents at the Forsmark nuclear power plant, the verification process of the basic approach, and our ongoing program for further development and verification of the accident management program. In summary: From the beginning it was emphasized that it was not only mitigating measures implemented, it was an accident mitigation program, including new EOP's and education and training. This program was implemented, as required by the Swedish government in the end of 1988. Since that time the accident management strategy has been validated, verified and further developed. As a general conclusion, the implemented accident management program has reached a fair degree of completeness at the Forsmark plant. It is expected that in the case a hypothetical accident would occur the envisaged strategy would handle the accident in such a way that the radiological consequences would be insignificant and radiation exposure to the personnel would be within ICRP recommendations. To reach and keep this goal it is imperative that a mental preparedness is always present. This is achieved with a continuous education, training and analyses

  19. SURVIV for survival analysis of mRNA isoform variation.

    Shen, Shihao; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Chengyang; Wu, Ying Nian; Xing, Yi

    2016-01-01

    The rapid accumulation of clinical RNA-seq data sets has provided the opportunity to associate mRNA isoform variations to clinical outcomes. Here we report a statistical method SURVIV (Survival analysis of mRNA Isoform Variation), designed for identifying mRNA isoform variation associated with patient survival time. A unique feature and major strength of SURVIV is that it models the measurement uncertainty of mRNA isoform ratio in RNA-seq data. Simulation studies suggest that SURVIV outperforms the conventional Cox regression survival analysis, especially for data sets with modest sequencing depth. We applied SURVIV to TCGA RNA-seq data of invasive ductal carcinoma as well as five additional cancer types. Alternative splicing-based survival predictors consistently outperform gene expression-based survival predictors, and the integration of clinical, gene expression and alternative splicing profiles leads to the best survival prediction. We anticipate that SURVIV will have broad utilities for analysing diverse types of mRNA isoform variation in large-scale clinical RNA-seq projects. PMID:27279334

  20. Important severe accident research issues after Fukushima accident

    After the Fukushima accident several investigation committees issued reports with lessons learned from the accident in Japan. Among those lessons, several recommendations have been made on severe accident research. Similar to the EURSAFE efforts under EU Program, review of specific severe accident research items was started before Fukushima accident in working group of Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) in terms of significance of consequences, uncertainties of phenomena and maturity of assessment methodology. Re-investigation has been started since the Fukushima accident. Additional effects of Fukushima accident, such as core degradation behaviors, sea water injection, containment failure/leakage and re-criticality have been covered. The review results are categorized in ten major fields; core degradation behavior, core melt coolability/retention in containment vessel, function of containment vessel, source term, hydrogen behavior, fuel-coolant interaction, molten core concrete interaction, direct containment heating, recriticality and instrumentation in severe accident conditions. Based on these activities and also author's personal view, the present paper describes the perspective of important severe accident research issues after Fukushima accident. Those are specifically investigation of damaged core and components, advanced severe accident analysis capabilities and associated experimental investigations, development of reliable passive cooling system for core/containment, analysis of hydrogen behavior and investigation of hydrogen measures, enhancement of removal function of radioactive materials of containment venting, advanced instrumentation for the diagnosis of severe accident and assessment of advanced containment design which excludes long-term evacuation in any severe accident situations. (author)

  1. Trends in survival and cause of death in Danish patients with multiple sclerosis

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Stenager, Egon

    The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry contains information about all Danish patients in whom multiple sclerosis has been diagnosed since 1948. The purpose of this study was to analyse trends in survival and causes of death of these patients and to compare them with those of the general population...... and death, and 1 January 1999 for cause-specific deaths. Standardized mortality ratios and excess death rates were calculated for various causes of death and periods after multiple sclerosis onset, and time trends in survival probability were analysed by Cox regression. The study comprised 9881....... According to death certificates, more than half (56.4%) of the patients had died from multiple sclerosis. They also had excess mortality rates from other diseases, except cancer, and from accidents and suicide. The probability for survival improved significantly during the observation period. Thus, the 10...

  2. Information at radiation accidents

    This study was undertaken in order to plan an information strategy for possible future accidents involving radioactivity. Six health visitors and six farmers working in the districts of Norway which received the largest amounts of fallout from the Chernobyl accident, were interviewed. The questions were intended to give an indication of their knowledge about radioactivity and radiation, as well as their needs for information in case of a future accident. The results indicate a relatively low educational background in radiation physics and risk estimation. On the other hand the two groups showed a remarkable skill and interest in doing their own evaluation on the background of information that was linked to their daily life. It is suggested that planning of information in this field is done in close cooperation with the potential users of the information

  3. Radiation accidents and dosimetry

    On September 2nd 1982 one of the employees of the gamma-irradiation facility at Institute for Energy Technology, Kjeller, Norway entered the irradiation cell with a 65.7 kCi *sp60*Co- source in unshielded position. The victim received an unknown radiation dose and died after 13 days. Using electron spin resonance spectroscopy, the radiation dose in this accident was subsequently determined based on the production of longlived free radicals in nitroglycerol tablets borne by the operator during the accident. He used nitroglycerol for heart problems and free radical are easily formed and trapped in sugar which is the main component of the tablets. Calibration experiments were carried out and the dose given to the tablets during the accident was determined to 37.2 +- 0.5 Gy. The general use of free radicals for dose determinations is discussed. (Auth.)

  4. Big nuclear accidents

    Much of the debate on the safety of nuclear power focuses on the large number of fatalities that could, in theory, be caused by extremely unlikely but imaginable reactor accidents. This, along with the nuclear industry's inappropriate use of vocabulary during public debate, has given the general public a distorted impression of the safety of nuclear power. The way in which the probability and consequences of big nuclear accidents have been presented in the past is reviewed and recommendations for the future are made including the presentation of the long-term consequences of such accidents in terms of 'reduction in life expectancy', 'increased chance of fatal cancer' and the equivalent pattern of compulsory cigarette smoking. (author)

  5. Effect of integrated Chinese medical treatment on the survival time of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: a clinical study

    刘苓霜

    2014-01-01

    Objective To observe clinical effect of integrated Chinese medical(CM)treatment(as maintenance therapy)on the progression-free survival(PFS)and overall survival(OS)in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer(NSCLC)after first-line chemotherapy.Methods The study was a prospective,randomized,controlled clinical trial.Totally 69 non-progressive advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy were

  6. Attenuation caused by infrequently updated covariates in survival analysis

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Liestøl, Knut

    Attenuation; Cox regression model; Measurement errors; Survival analysis; Time-dependent covariates......Attenuation; Cox regression model; Measurement errors; Survival analysis; Time-dependent covariates...

  7. The management of accidents

    R. B. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This author’s experiences in investigating well over a hundred accident occurrences has led to questioning how such events can be managed - - - while immediately recognising that the idea of managing accidents is an oxymoron, we don’t want to manage them, we don’t want not to manage them, what we desire is not to have to manage not-them, that is, manage matters so they don’t happen and then we don’t have to manage the consequences.Design/methodology/approach: The research will begin by defining some common classes of accidents in manufacturing industry, with examples taken from cases investigated, and by working backwards (too late, of course show how those involved could have managed these sample events so they didn’t happen, finishing with the question whether any of that can be applied to other situations.Findings: As shown that the management actions needed to prevent accidents are control of design and application of technology, and control and integration of people.Research limitations/implications: This paper has shown in some of the examples provided, management actions have been know to lead to accidents being committed by others, lower in the organization.Originality/value: Today’s management activities involve, generally, the use of technology in many forms, varying from simple tools (such as knives to the use of heavy equipment, electric power, and explosives. Against these we commit, in control of those items, the comparatively frail human mind and body, which, again generally, does succeed in controlling these resources, with (another generality by appropriate management. However, sometimes the control slips and an accident occurs.

  8. The Fukushima accident was preventable.

    Synolakis, Costas; Kânoğlu, Utku

    2015-10-28

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami was probably the fourth largest in the past 100 years and killed over 15 000 people. The magnitude of the design tsunami triggering earthquake affecting this region of Japan had been grossly underestimated, and the tsunami hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the third most severe accident in an NPP ever. Interestingly, while the Onagawa NPP was also hit by a tsunami of approximately the same height as Dai-ichi, it survived the event 'remarkably undamaged'. We explain what has been referred to as the cascade of engineering and regulatory failures that led to the Fukushima disaster. One, insufficient attention had been given to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region earlier, to Japanese research suggestive that large earthquakes could occur anywhere along a subduction zone, and to new research on mega-thrusts since Boxing Day 2004. Two, there were unexplainably different design conditions for NPPs at close distances from each other. Three, the hazard analysis to calculate the maximum probable tsunami at Dai-ichi appeared to have had methodological mistakes, which almost nobody experienced in tsunami engineering would have made. Four, there were substantial inadequacies in the Japan nuclear regulatory structure. The Fukushima accident was preventable, if international best practices and standards had been followed, if there had been international reviews, and had common sense prevailed in the interpretation of pre-existing geological and hydrodynamic findings. Formal standards are needed for evaluating the tsunami vulnerability of NPPs, for specific training of engineers and scientists who perform tsunami computations for emergency preparedness or critical facilities, as well as for regulators who review safety studies. PMID:26392611

  9. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

    Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

    2008-08-01

    Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

  10. Wireless Reporting System for Accident Detection at Higher Speeds u

    Peddi Anudeep; K. Hari Bab

    2014-01-01

    Speed is one of the basic reasons for vehicle accident. Many lives could have been saved if emergency service could get accident information and reach in time. Nowadays, GPS has become an integral part of a vehicle system. This paper proposes to utilize the capability of a GPS receiver to monitor speed of a vehicle and detect accident basing on monitored speed and send accident location to an Alert Service Center. The GPS will monitor speed of a vehicle and compare with the pr...

  11. ANALYSIS OF THE ACCIDENTS OF THE CAR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

    J.Adl ; Z. Mohammad zade

    1993-08-01

    Full Text Available Car manufacturing industry accident’s rates from three major companies are analyzed. Totally 1325 accidents with 4 cases of fatality were recorded. Accident rates per 100 full-time workers have gradually increased from 5.3 to 8.7 during 3 years of study. Most of the accidents occurred during the primary hours of the work, Strains and sprains represented the most frequently occurring type of injury, accounting for 37.9% and the greatest number of injuries occurred by flying particles (3 1.6%, resulting in eye injuries. Other aspects of accidents in this industry are discussed and recommendations are given for their prevention.

  12. Mortal radiological accident

    After defining the concept of 'Radiological accident', statistical data from Radiation Emergency Assistance Center of ORNL (United States of America) are given about the deaths caused by acute irradiation between 1944 and April 24, 1986 -ie, the day before Chernobyl nuclear accident- as well as on the number of deaths caused by the latter. Next the different clinical stages of the Acute Irradiation Syndrome (AIS) as well as its possible treatment are described, and finally the different physical, clinical and biological characteristics linked to the AIS and to its diagnosis and prognosis are discussed. (M.E.L.)

  13. The TMI-2 accident

    A critical study about the technical and man-related facts in order to establish what is considered the worst commercial nuclear power accident until 1986. Radiological consequences and stress to the public are considered in contrast to antinuclear groups. This descriptive and technical study has the purpose to document written and oral opinions obtained abroad and then explain to the public in an easy language terminology. Preliminary study describing safety related systems fails and the accident itself with minute to minute description, conduct to the consequences and then, to learned lessons

  14. The role of hematopoietic growth factors in nuclear and radiation accidents

    Molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factors are likely to be useful in treating persons with bone marrow failure resulting from radiation exposure. Some effects, such as increased granulocytes or platelets, are of clear therapeutic benefit. Other effects, such as a direct action on survival of hematopoietic stem cells and improved granulocyte function, may also increase survival. Many important areas remain to be studied, including which molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factor(s) to use, optimal dose and timing, and others. Some of these issues can be studied in clinical trials; others require in vitro or animal models. Despite the limited data currently available, it is clear that the availability of molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factors heralds a new era in treating radiation and nuclear accidents.70 references

  15. Differences in the ecological half-time of radiocaesium from the Chernobyl accident and from nuclear weapons fallout as measured in a south Swedish population

    Between 1964 and 1994 the whole-body content of 134Cs and 137Cs was measured in a south-Swedish population living in the city of Lund, the so-called Lund reference group, in order to investigate the effective ecological half-time of 137Cs in that area and to assess the committed effective dose. The Lund area was subjected to a total deposition of about 2 kBq/m2 of 137Cs from the nuclear weapons fallout during the 1950s and 60s and an additional deposition of 2 kBq/m2 of 137Cs from Chernobyl in May 1986. The effective ecological half-time for Chernobyl 137Cs was found to be 1.8 ± 0.2 years, which would correspond to an approximate average individual committed effective dose of 0.033 mSv. The time pattern of pre-Chernobyl 137Cs was however best described by a double exponential function, with a short term effective ecological half-time of 1.3 years between 1965 and 1970, and a corresponding long term component of about 10 to 20 years. The committed internal effective dose to an average individual from pre-Chernobyl 137Cs in the Lund reference group was calculated to be 0.20 mSv. The aggregate transfer factor, Tag, was estimated to be 2.5 Bq kg-1/kBq m-2, compared to a value of 10 Bq kg-1/kBq m-2 in 1965 at the time when peak activity concentration values were observed in the Lund reference group. An alternative way of describing the aggregate transfer of 137Cs to man, is by time integration of both the average whole-body burden and the deposition level during a certain time span. Integrating over a 50 y time span, it was found that pre-Chernobyl radiocaesium was transferred to man at least ten time more efficiently than Chernobyl caesium in the Lund region. Since the global fall-out in the sixties and seventies was more or less continuously deposited during the years, the uptake of the substance in agricultural crops during the growth season led to a more efficient transfer of 137Cs through foodstuff to man than the deposition from Chernobyl, which occurred just

  16. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M

    2016-08-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  17. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  18. Source term formation in CANDU severe accidents

    The paper presents the phenomena involved in the most important CANDU severe accident (LOCA+LOECC, SBO, SGTR, EFF). Fission products are grouped in classes taking into consideration the half time, volatility, chemistry and biological activity. An analysis of the paths on which the release of the fission products to the environment occurs is performed. For each type of CANDU severe accident the process of source term formation, the magnitude and structure of source term and also the timing are presented on the basis of SOPHAEROS, CPA and IODE (modules included in ASTEC code) calculations, completed with literature results. The discussion about the involved sources of uncertainties is also presented taking into account the complexity of phenomena, the great number of parameters and limited availability of experimental data. Some general recommendations are developed in order to use the results in achieving the procedures for protective actions during a reactor accident. (authors)

  19. Application of FFTBM to severe accidents

    In Europe an initiative for the reduction of uncertainties in severe accident safety issues was initiated. Generally, the error made in predicting plant behaviour is called uncertainty, while the discrepancies between measured and calculated trends related to experimental facilities are called the accuracy of the prediction. The purpose of the work is to assess the accuracy of the calculations of the severe accident International Standard Problem ISP-46 (Phebus FPT1), performed with two versions of MELCOR 1.8.5 for validation purposes. For the quantitative assessment of calculations the improved fast Fourier transform based method (FFTBM) was used with the capability to calculate time dependent code accuracy. In addition, a new measure for the indication of the time shift between the experimental and the calculated signal was proposed. The quantitative results obtained with FFTBM confirm the qualitative conclusions made during the Jozef Stefan Institute participation in ISP-46. In general good agreement of thermal-hydraulic variables and satisfactory agreement of total releases for most radionuclide classes was obtained. The quantitative FFTBM results showed that for the Phebus FPT1 severe accident experiment the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables calculated with the MELCOR severe accident code is close to the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables for design basis accident experiments calculated with best-estimate system codes. (author)

  20. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B4C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding rate

  1. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B{sub 4}C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding

  2. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. PMID:26619285

  3. Influence of acetylsalicylic acid (1.0 g/day) on platelet survival time, beta-thromboglobulin and platelet factor 4 in patients with peripheral arterial occlusive disease

    In this study we investigated the influence of acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) 1.0 g/day on 111-In-platelet survival time (PST) and on plasma levels of beta-thromboglobulin (beta-TG) and platelet factor 4 (PF 4) in 37 patients (median age: 63.4 years) with arteriographically proven peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) in a chronic stable phase. We found a slight but significant increase of PST during therapy with ASA (weighted mean (WM): 184.3----193.2 [median] hours, p less than 0.05; multiple hit (MH): 182.4----192.8 hours, p less than 0.005) for the total group of patients. Concerning the influence of risk factors of PAOD on PST during ASA-therapy, there was a significant increase of PST only in the nondiabetics (WM: 180.3----204.6 hours, p less than 0.01; MH: 176.8----195.3 hours, p less than 0.01). There was a negative correlation between the baseline values of PST and their increase following ASA therapy (WM: r = -0.63; p less than 0.0001; MH: r = -0.61, p less than 0.0001). The pretreatment levels of beta-TG--but not PF 4--were significantly (p less than 0.001) elevated compared to healthy controls. Therapy with ASA caused a significant decrease in the plasma levels of beta-TG (median: 30.4----26.6 ng/ml, p less than 0.001) and PF 4 (2.95----2.2 ng/ml, p less than 0.01)

  4. Effect of growth on the thermal resistance and survival of Salmonella Tennessee and Oranienburg in peanut butter, measured by a new thin-layer thermal death time device.

    Keller, Susanne E; Grasso, Elizabeth M; Halik, Lindsay A; Fleischman, Gregory J; Chirtel, Stuart J; Grove, Stephen F

    2012-06-01

    In published data the thermal destruction of Salmonella species in peanut butter deviates from pseudo-first-order kinetics. The reasons for such deviation are unknown. This study examined both the method used to measure the thermal destruction rate and the method of growth of the microorganisms to explain variations in destruction kinetics. Growth on a solid matrix results in a different physiological state that may provide greater resistance to adverse environments. In this study, Salmonella Tennessee and Oranienburg were grown for 24 h at 37°C under aerobic conditions in broth and agar media to represent planktonic and sessile cell growth, respectively. Peanut butter was held at 25°C and tested for Salmonella levels immediately after inoculation and at various time intervals up to 2 weeks. Thermal resistance was measured at 85°C by use of a newly developed thin-layer metal sample holder. Although thermal heat transfer through the metal device resulted in longer tau values than those obtained with plastic bags (32.5 ± 0.9 versus 12.4 ± 1.9 s), the bags have a relative variability of about 15 % compared with about 3 % in the plates, allowing improved uniformity of sample treatment. The two serovars tested in the thin-layer device showed similar overall thermal resistance levels in peanut butter regardless of growth in sessile or planktonic states. However, thermal destruction curves from sessile cultures exhibited greater linearity than those obtained from planktonic cells (P = 0.0198 and 0.0047 for Salmonella Oranienburg and Salmonella Tennessee, respectively). In addition, both Salmonella serovars showed significantly higher survival in peanut butter at 25°C when originally grown on solid media (P = 0.001) with a environment such as peanut butter. PMID:22691482

  5. Incidence of legal abortion in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident

    The number of legal abortions in Sweden increased around the time of the Chernobyl accident, particularly in the summer and autumn of 1986. Although there was no recording of reasons for legal abortions, one might have suspected this increase to be a result of fear and anxiety after the accident. However, seen over a longer time perspective, the increase in the number of abortions started before and continued far beyond the time of the accident. There was also a simultaneous and pronounced increase in the number of births during the years subsequent to the accident. Therefore, it seems unlikely that fear of the consequences of radioactive fall-out after the Chernobyl accident resulted in any substantial increase of the number of legal abortions in Sweden

  6. Effects of the Chernobyl accident on public perceptions of nuclear plant accident risks

    Assessments of public perceptions of the characteristics of a nuclear power plant accident and affective responses to its likelihood were conducted 5 months before and 1 month after the Chernobyl accident. Analyses of data from 69 residents of southwestern Washington showed significant test-retest correlations for only 10 of 18 variables--accident likelihood, three measures of impact characteristics, three measures of affective reactions, and hazard knowledge by governmental sources. Of these variables, only two had significant changes in mean ratings; frequency of thought and frequency of discussion about a nearby nuclear power plant both increased. While there were significant changes only for two personal consequences (expectations of cancer and genetic effects), both of these decreased. The results of this study indicate that more attention should be given to assessing the stability of risk perceptions over time. Moreover, the data demonstrate that experience with a major accident can actually decrease rather than increase perceptions of threat

  7. Description of the accident

    The TMI-2 accident occurred in March 1979. The accident started with a simple and fairly common steam power plant failure--loss of feedwater to the steam generators. Because of a combination of design, training, regulatory policies, mechanical failures and human error, the accident progressed to the point where it eventually produced the worst known core damage in large nuclear power reactors. Core temperatures locally reached UO2 fuel liquefaction (metallic solution with Zr) and even fuel melt (3800-51000F). Extensive fission product release and Zircaloy cladding oxidation and embrittlement occurred. At least the upper 1/2 of the core fractured and crumbled upon quenching. The lower central portion of the core apparently had a delayed heatup and then portions of it collapsed into the reactor vessel lower head. The lower outer portion of the core may be relatively undamaged. Outside of the core boundary, only those steel components directly above and adjacent to the core (≤1 foot) are known to have suffered significant damage (localized oxidation and melting). Other portions of the primary system outside of the reactor vessel apparently had little chance of damage or even notable overheating. The demonstrated coolability of the severely damaged TMI-2 core, once adequate water injection began, was one of the most substantial and important results of the TMI-2 accident

  8. Fifteen years after accident

    This book is devoted to 15th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. Four problems have been reflected in the book: contamination of territories of Western Europe, Belarus, Ukraine and Russian Federation by cesium-137; plutonium, americium and other actinides on territory of Belarus; problems of radioactive wastes management of Chernobyl origin; influence of various factors on oncology morbidity in the Republic of Belarus

  9. Measures against nuclear accidents

    A select committee appointed by the Norwegian Ministry of Social Affairs put forward proposals concerning measures for the improvement of radiation protection preparedness in Norway. On the basis on an assessment of the potential radiation accident threat, the report examines the process of response, and identifies the organizational and management factors that influence that process

  10. The Chernobyl reactor accident

    The documentation abstracted contains a complete survey of the broadcasts transmitted by the Russian wire service of the Deutsche Welle radio station between April 28 and Mai 15, 1986 on the occasion of the Chernobyl reactor accident. Access is given to extracts of the remarkable eastern and western echoes on the broadcasts of the Deutsche Welle. (HP)

  11. Accident progression modelling: containment event trees

    Containment Event Trees (CETs) are used to represent the various potential accident progressions following core melt. The EVNTRE code has a sophisticated Monte-Carlo capability. In this paper the small CET approach uses Decompositions Event Trees (DETs) to analyse the issues behind the CET headers and large CET approach (EVNTRE/NUREG-1150) are presented. The equipment survivability impact in CET, source term assignment via grouping of sequences into categories or by use of parametric code, sensitivity studies versus full Monte-Carlo simulation for study of the impact of uncertainties are also discussed

  12. Lessons learned from accident investigations

    Accidents in three main practices - medical applications, industrial radiography and industrial irradiators - are used to illustrate some common causes of accidents and the main lessons to be learned from them. A brief description of some of these accidents is given. Lessons learned from the accidents described are approached bearing in mind: safety culture, quality assurance, human factors, good engineering practice, defence in depth, security of sources, safety assessment and monitoring and verification compliance. (author)

  13. Lessons learned from accidents investigations

    Accidents from three main practices: medical applications, industrial radiography and industrial irradiators are used to illustrate some common causes of accidents and the main lessons to be learned. A brief description of some of these accidents is given. Lessons learned from the described accidents are approached by subjects covering: safety culture, quality assurance, human factors, good engineering practice, defence in depth, security of sources, safety assessment and monitoring and verification compliance. (author)

  14. Road Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

    Alma Aubakirova; Alibek Kossumov; Nurbek Igissinov

    2013-01-01

    Background: The article provides the analysis of death rates in road traffic accidents in Kazakhstan from 2004 to 2010 and explores the use of sanitary aviation. Methods: Data of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents were collected and analysed. Descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology and biomedical statistics were applied. Results: Totaly 27,003 people died as a result of road traffic accidents in this period. The death rate for the total population due to road traffic accid...

  15. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 5/5. Post-accident Recovery

    This volume deals with the recovery stage of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP). It provides a description and analysis of the initial recovery actions, and also looks ahead based on the current plans for recovery activities. One of the main objectives of this volume is to provide a comprehensive description of on-site and off-site recovery efforts following the emergency phase of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Until now, this information has been widely dispersed. Another major objective is to formulate lessons learned on the basis of these efforts. This volume presents: – What is now known about the recovery from the Fukushima Daiichi accident, including the status and effectiveness of remedial and management actions; – Lessons and observations arising from the experience of undertaking recovery actions following the accident that are useful for the international community to enhance nuclear safety worldwide. The scope of the volume covers the recovery activities and their timing. In the period immediately following the accident, priority was given to the stabilization of conditions at the plant and ensuring the safety of the public. Protective actions included the evacuation of residents from selected areas and the implementation of food restrictions, as described in more detail in Technical Volume 3. As time progressed, and the conditions at the NPP improved and were stabilized, greater emphasis was placed on off-site recovery from the accident, including the remediation of the environment, infrastructure and the affected communities

  16. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy

  17. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    Chang, Soon Hong; Cheon, Moon Heon; Cho, Nam jin; No, Hui Cheon; Chang, Hyeon Seop; Moon, Sang Kee; Park, Seok Jeong; Chung, Jee Hwan [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1991-12-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy.

  18. The psychology of nuclear accidents

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed. (U.K.)

  19. Potential factors affecting survival differ by run-timing and location: linear mixed-effects models of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. in the Klamath River, California.

    Rebecca M Quiñones

    Full Text Available Understanding factors influencing survival of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. is essential to species conservation, because drivers of mortality can vary over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although recent studies have evaluated the effects of climate, habitat quality, or resource management (e.g., hatchery operations on salmonid recruitment and survival, a failure to look at multiple factors simultaneously leaves open questions about the relative importance of different factors. We analyzed the relationship between ten factors and survival (1980-2007 of four populations of salmonids with distinct life histories from two adjacent watersheds (Salmon and Scott rivers in the Klamath River basin, California. The factors were ocean abundance, ocean harvest, hatchery releases, hatchery returns, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, snow depth, flow, and watershed disturbance. Permutation tests and linear mixed-effects models tested effects of factors on survival of each taxon. Potential factors affecting survival differed among taxa and between locations. Fall Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha survival trends appeared to be driven partially or entirely by hatchery practices. Trends in three taxa (Salmon River spring Chinook salmon, Scott River fall Chinook salmon; Salmon River summer steelhead trout O. mykiss were also likely driven by factors subject to climatic forcing (ocean abundance, summer flow. Our findings underscore the importance of multiple factors in simultaneously driving population trends in widespread species such as anadromous salmonids. They also show that the suite of factors may differ among different taxa in the same location as well as among populations of the same taxa in different watersheds. In the Klamath basin, hatchery practices need to be reevaluated to protect wild salmonids.

  20. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  1. Reactivity accident of nuclear submarine near Vladivostok

    After the collapse of the Soviet Union and consequently the termination of the Cold War and the disarmament agreements, many nuclear warheads are in a queue for dismantling. As a result, substantial number of nuclear submarines equipped with ballistic missiles will be also withdrawn from service. However, Russian nuclear submarines have suffered from reactivity accidents five times. In the paper, a reactivity accident on a nuclear submarine that happened at Chazhma Bay located between Vladivostok and Nakhodka on August 10, 1985, has been described. In addition, the characteristics of submarine nuclear reactors, procedures of refueling, and the possibility of a similar accident are given. Further, the radiological risk to Japan and neighboring countries has been assessed by using an atmospheric pollutant transport code, WSPEEDI, developed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. The radiological risk has been evaluated for the Chazhma Bay accident and for a hypothetical reactivity accident of a retired submarine during defueling, assuming winter meteorological conditions. The analyses have shown that the radioactive material might be transported in the atmosphere to Japan in one to several days and might contaminate wide areas of Japan. Under the assumptions taken in the paper, however, the radiological dose to population in the area might be not significant. (author)

  2. Biological and medical consequences of nuclear accidents

    The study of the medical and biological consequences of the nuclear accidents is a vast program. The Chernobyl accident has caused some thirty deceases: Some of them were rapid and the others occurred after a certain time. The particularity of these deaths was that the irradiation has been associated to burns and traumatisms. The lesson learnt from the Chernobyl accident is to treat the burn and the traumatism before treating the irradiation. Contrary to what the research workers believe, the first wave of deaths has passed between 15 and 35 days and it has not been followed by any others. But the therapeutic lesson drawn from the accident confirm the research workers results; for example: the radioactive doses band that determines where the therapy could be efficacious or not. the medical cares dispensed to the irradiated people in the hospital of Moscow has confirmed that the biochemical equilibrium of proteinic elements of blood has to be maintained, and the transfusion of the purified elements are very important to restore a patient to health, and the sterilization of the medium (room, food, bedding,etc...) of the patient is indispensable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an international cooperation for providing enough sterilized rooms and specialists in the irradiation treatment. The genetic consequences and cancers from the Chernobyl accident have been discussed. It is impossible to detect these consequences because of their negligible percentages. (author)

  3. Health consequences [of the Chernobyl accident

    The World Health Organisation Conference on the Health Consequences of the Chernobyl and Other Radiological Accidents, held in Geneva last November, is reported. The lack of representation from the civil nuclear industry led often to one-sided debates instigated by the anti-nuclear lobbies present. Thyroid cancer in children as a result of the Chernobyl accident received particular attention. In Belarus, 400 cases have been noted, 220 in Ukraine and 60 in the Russian Federation. All have been treated with a high degree of success. The incidence of this cancer would be expected to follow the fallout path as the main exposure route was ingestion of contaminated foods and milk products. It was noted that the only way to confirm causality was if those children born since the accident failed to show the same increased incidence. Explanations were offered for the particular susceptibility of children to thyroid cancer following exposure to radiation. Another significant cause of concern was the health consequences to clean-up workers in radiological accidents. The main factor is psychological problems from the stress of knowing that they have received high radiation doses. A dramatic increase in psychological disorders has occurred in the Ukraine over the past ten years and this is attributed to stress generated by the Chernobyl accident, compounded by the inadequacy of the public advice offered at the time and the socio-economic uncertainties accompanying the breakup of the former USSR. (UK)

  4. Accident Diagnosis and Prognosis Aide (ADPA)

    This presentation provides a demonstration of a prototypical expert system developed by Technology Applications, Inc. (TAI) under a contract with the Department of Energy as a part of their Small Business Innovation Research Program. The Accident Diagnosis and Prognosis Aide (ADPA) Demonstration Prototype is a working scale model of a real-time expert system which: Diagnoses an accident situation (as well as a number of underlying failures, events, and conditions deduced along the way). Calculates the change in the likelihood of core damage as a function of the events and failures diagnosed. Dynamically generates a recovery procedure tailored to the specific plant state at hand

  5. Accident Safety Design for High Speed Elevator

    Tawiwat Veeraklaew

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many elevators exist in buildings for such a long time; however, an accident might happen as a free fall due to lacks of maintenance or some other accident such as firing. Although this situation is rarely occurred, many people are still concerned about it. The question here is how to make passengers to feel safe and confident when they are using an elevator, especially, high speed elevator. This problem is studied here in this paper as a free fall spring-mass-damper system with the stiffness and damping coefficient can be computed as minimum jerk of the system with given constraints on trajectories.

  6. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Lithuania

    After the Chernobyl accident of 26 April, 1986, population dose assessment favours the view that the radiation risk of population effected by the early fallout would be different from that in regions contaminated later. Taking into account the short half-time of the most important radioactive iodine isotopes, thyroid disorders would be expected mainly to follow the early fallout distribution. At the time of accident at Unite 4 of the Chernobyl NPP, surface winds were from the Southeast. The initial explosions and heat carried volatile radioactive materials to the 1,5 km height, from where they were transported over the Western part of Belarus, Southern and Western part of Lithuania toward Scandinavian countries. Thus the volatile radioiodine and some other radionuclides were detected in Lithuania on the very first days after the accident. The main task of the work - to conduct short Half-time radioiodine and long half-time radiocesium dose assessment of Lithuanian inhabitants a result of the early Chernobyl accident fallout

  7. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost; Vladimir V. Frolov; Boris G. Ryazanov; Victor I. Sviridov

    2000-05-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.

  8. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report

  9. Radioprotective effects of miso (fermented soy bean paste) against radiation in B6C3F1 mice. Increased small intestinal crypt survival, crypt lengths and prolongation of average time to death

    The radioprotective effect of miso, a fermentation product from soy bean, was investigated with reference to the survival time, crypt survival and jejunum crypt length in male B6C3F1 mice. Miso at three different fermentation stages (early-, medium- and long-term fermented miso) was mixed in MF diet into biscuits at 10% and was administered from 1 week before irradiation. Animal survival in the long-term fermented miso group was significantly prolonged as compared with the short-term fermented miso and MF cases after 8 Gy of 60Co-γ-ray irradiation at a dose rate of 2 Gy min-1. Delay in mortality was evident in all three miso groups, with significantly increased survival. At doses of 10 and 12 Gy X-irradiation at a dose rate of 4 Gy min-1, the treatment with long-term fermented miso significantly increased crypt survival. Also the protective influence against irradiation in terms of crypt lengths in the long-term fermented miso group was significantly greater than in the short-term or medium-term fermented miso and MF diet groups. Thus, prolonged fermentation appears to be very important for protection against radiation effects. (author)

  10. 儿童脑干胶质瘤生存时间的相关因素分析%Analysis of factors related to the survival time of the children with brainstem glioma

    孙涛; 万伟庆; 吴震; 张俊廷; 张力伟

    2012-01-01

    目的 探讨影响儿童脑干胶质瘤生存时间的相关因素.方法 回顾性分析33例儿童脑干胶质瘤病人的临床资料.应用Kaplan-Meier法进行单因素分析,分析临床、影像和病理组织学因素对生存时间的影响.差异的显著性检验应用Log-rank 法,对单因素分析中P<0.05者进行COX回归多因素模型分析.结果 单因素分析显示影响生存时间的因素包括:发病年龄、发病到就诊时间、入院时KPS评分、肿瘤部位、病理级别、肿瘤生长类型以及治疗方法(均P<0.05).多因素分析显示:病人的发病到就诊时间(P=0.034)及肿瘤生长类型(P=0.046)对生存时间的影响更为显著.结论 儿童脑干胶质瘤的生存时间与多种因素有关,手术切除可延长生存时间.%Objective To investigate the related factors affecting the survival time of children with brainstem glioma. Methods Clinical data of 33 brainstem glioma children were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate analysis was conducted to determine the influence of clinical, imaging and histopathological factors on survival time of brainstem glioma children by using Kaplan-Meier method. The differences between groups were analyzed by a log-rank test. The factors (P < 0.05) in univariate analysis were analyzed by COX proportional hazards regression model in the multivariate analysis. Results Univariate analysis results showed that the following variables including age of onset, time from onset of illness to visiting, karnofsky performance scale (KPS) score at admission, tumor site, pathological grade, growth pattern and therapeutic method were associated with survival time (all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that time from onset of illness to visiting and growth pattern were more significantly associated with survival time (P = 0.034, 0.046). Conclusions The survival time of brainstem glioma children is associated with many factors, and surgical resection can prolong survival time of the

  11. Chernobyl reactor accident

    On April 26, 1986, an explosion occurred at the newest of four operating nuclear reactors at the Chernobyl site in the USSR. The accident initiated an international technical exchange of almost unprecedented magnitude; this exchange was climaxed with a meeting at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna during the week of August 25, 1986. The meeting was attended by more than 540 official representatives from 51 countries and 20 international organizations. Information gleaned from that technical exchange is presented in this report. A description of the Chernobyl reactor, which differs significantly from commercial US reactors, is presented, the accident scenario advanced by the Russian delegation is discussed, and observations that have been made concerning fission product release are described

  12. Nuclear ship accidents

    In this report available information on 28 nuclear ship accident and incidents is considered. Of these 5 deals with U.S. ships and 23 with USSR ships. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions and sea water leaks into the submarines are considered. Comments are made on each of the events, and at the end of the report an attempt is made to point out the weaknesses of the submarine designs which have resulted in the accidents. It is emphasized that much of the available information is of a rather dubious nature. consequently some of the assessments made may not be correct. (au)

  13. Reactor accidents in perspective

    In each of the three major reactor accidents which have led to significant releases to the environment, and discussed in outline in this note, the reactor has been essentially destroyed - certainly Windscale and Chernobyl reactors will never operate and the cleanup operation for Three Mile Island is currently estimated to have cost in excess of US Pound 500 000 000. In each of the accidents there has not been any fatality off site in the short term and any long-term health detriment is unlikely to be seen in comparison with the natural cancer incidence rate. At Chernobyl, early fatalities did occur amongst those concerned with fighting the incident on site and late effects are to be expected. The assumption of a linear non-threshold risk, and hence no level of zero risk is the main problem in communication with the public, and the author calls for simplification of the presentation of the concepts of radiological protection. (U.K.)

  14. The Chernobylsk reactor accident

    The construction, the safety philosophy, the major reactor physical parameters of RBMK-1000 type reactor units and the detailed description of the Chernobylsk-4 reactor accident, its causes and conclusions, the efforts to reduce the consequences on the reactor site and in the surroundings are discussed based on different types of Soviet documents including the report presented to the IAEA by the Soviet Atomic Energy Agency in August 1986. (V.N.)

  15. Ship accident studies

    This paper summarizes ship accident studies performed by George G. Sharp, Inc. for the U.S. Maritime Administration in connection with the Nuclear Ship Project. Casualties studied include fires/explosions, groundings and collisions for which a method for calculating probability on a specific route was developed jointly with the Babcock and Wilcox Co. Casualty data source was the Liverpool's Underwriters Association Casualty Returns

  16. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident... Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. It is the responsibility... obtain Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and accompanying accident docket files....

  17. Ensuring survival.

    Sadik, N

    1992-12-01

    The global population growth rate has been 1.7% since 1975, while for developing countries it is 2.1%. UN projections are for population to grow from 5.5 billion in 1992 to 10 billion by 2050. Sustainable development is only possible when population growth is balanced with available resources. UN medium population projections of 7.8 billion by 2050 can be reached with 187 million more couples practicing family planning (FP) by the year 2000. Within the past 20 years, 1 billion people, mostly from developed countries, have enjoyed economic growth, but have contributed polluting technologies, excessive waste, and environmentally dangerous economic practices. The generations to come will be affected by the continuance of these practices by the 1 billion affluent population. The bottom billion are mired in poverty and high population growth and survival, needs that hinder their country's economic development, upset fragile ecosystems, and destroy the balance between human beings and the environment. International migration on a large scale could be the by-product of population growth. Progress has been made since the 1974 UN Conference on Population in Bucharest. There are still, however, vulnerable populations, the poorest households, the landless and small-holder families, urban squatters and slum dwellers, those living in low lying deltas and along coasts, and women. Women control family resources and their micro environment. Sustainable development is not possible without the elimination of prejudice against women. Reproductive freedom for women must be a priority. High quality, readily available FP services are also needed for those desiring this. The difficulty is in providing FP services that conform to a woman's social and cultural background and personal needs; success is dependent on involving women in the process and holding men more responsible for FP. Development means allowing for the legitimate aspirations of the majority not just the specialized

  18. A protocol for storage and long-distance shipment of Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) eggs. 1. Effect of temperature, embryo age , and storage time on survival and quality

    The operational use of Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), genetic sexing strains in Sterile Insect Technique applications can be maximized by developing methods for effective shipment of eggs. This would enable a central production facility to maintain the relevant mother stocks and large colonies to supply eggs to satellite centers that would mass produce only males for irradiation and release. In order to achieve this, the survival of medfly embryos of different ages was assessed after storage at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 deg. C in water for different periods of time. Survival was affected by all 3 variables, i.e., embryo age, water temperature, and length of storage. Storage of embryos at any temperature for 120 h resulted in almost no survival. Controlling the age of the embryo at the time of the temperature treatment is crucial for the success of this procedure. Embryos collected between 0 to 12 h after oviposition and pre-incubated at 25 deg. C for 12 h provide a suitable 72 h window for shipment when maintained between 10 to 15 deg. C. Under these conditions, no significant reductions in survival during all the developmental stages were observed. (author)

  19. Accident Monitoring Systems for Nuclear Power Plants

    In the Fukushima Daiichi accident, the instrumentation provided for accident monitoring proved to be ineffective for a combination of reasons. The accident has highlighted the need to re-examine criteria for accident monitoring instrumentation. This publication covers all relevant aspects of accident monitoring in NPPs. The critical issues discussed reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident, involve accident management and accident monitoring strategies for nuclear power plants, selection of plant parameters for monitoring plant status, establishment of performance, design, qualification, display, and quality assurance criteria for designated accident monitoring instrumentation, and design and implementation considerations. Technology needs and techniques for accident monitoring instrumentation are also addressed

  20. Accidents and human factors

    When the TMI accident occurred it was 4 a.m., an hour when the error potential of the operators would have been very high. The frequency of car and train accidents in Japan is also highest between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. The error potential may be classified into five phases corresponding to the electroencephalogramic pattern (EEG). At phase 0, when the delta wave appears, a person is unconscious and in deep sleep; at phase I, when the theta wave appears, he is very tired, sleepy and subnormal; at phase II, when the alpha wave appears, he is normal, relaxed and passive; at phase III, when the beta wave appears, he is normal, clear-minded and active; at phase IV, when the strong beta or epileptic wave appears, he is hypernormal, excited and incapable of normal judgement. Should an accident occur at phase II, the brain condition may jump to phase IV. At this phase the error or accident potential is maximum. The response of the human brain to different types of noises and signals may vary somewhat for different individuals and for different groups of people. Therefore, the possibility that such differences in brain functions may influence the mental structure would be worthy of consideration in human factors and in the design of man-machine systems. Human reliability and performance would be affected by many factors: medical, physiological and psychological, etc. The uncertainty involved in human factors may not necessarily be probabilistic, but fuzzy. Therefore, it would be important to develop a theory by which both non-probabilistic uncertainties, or fuzziness, of human factors and the probabilistic properties of machines can be treated consistently. From the mathematical point of view, probabilistic measure is considered a special case of fuzzy measure. Therefore, fuzzy set theory seems to be an effective tool for analysing man-machine systems. To minimize human error and the possibility of accidents, new safety systems should not only back up man and make up for his

  1. Radiation accident/disaster

    Described are the course of medical measures following Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) Accident after the quake and tsunami (Mar. 11, 2011) and the future task for radiation accident/disaster. By the first hydrogen explosion in FNPP (Mar. 12), evacuation of residents within 20 km zone was instructed, and the primary base for measures of nuclear disaster (Off-site Center) 5 km afar from FNPP had to work as a front base because of damage of communicating ways, of saving of injured persons and of elevation of dose. On Mar. 13, the medical arrangement council consisting from stuff of Fukushima Medical University (FMU), National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Nuclear Safety Research Association and Prefectural officers was setup in residents' hall of Fukushima City, and worked for correspondence to persons injured or exposed, where communication about radiation and between related organizations was still poor. The Off-site Center's head section moved to Prefectural Office on Mar. 15 as headquarters. Early in the period, all residents evacuated from the 20 km zone, and in-hospital patients and nursed elderly were transported with vehicles, >50 persons of whom reportedly died mainly by their base diseases. The nation system of medicare for emergent exposure had consisted from the network of the primary to third facilities; there were 5 facilities in the Prefecture, 3 of which were localized at 4-9 km distance from FNPP and closed early after the Accident; and the secondary facility of FMU became responsible to all exposed persons. There was no death of workers of FNPP. Medical stuff also measured the ambient dose at various places near FNPP, having had risk of exposure. At the Accident, the important system of command, control and communication was found fragile and measures hereafter should be planned on assumption of the worst scenario of complete damage of the infrastructure and communication. It is desirable for Disaster Medical Assistance Team which

  2. The impact of time between staging PET/CT and definitive chemo-radiation on target volumes and survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

    Background and purpose: To investigate the impact of treatment delays on radiation therapy (RT) target volumes and overall survival (OS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who underwent two baseline FDG PET/CT scans. Material and methods: Patients underwent a staging (PET1) and RT planning (PET2) FDG PET/CT scan. At PET1 all patients were eligible for radical chemo-RT. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared for patients remaining eligible for radical RT and those treated palliatively because PET2 showed progression. RT target volumes were contoured using PET1 and PET2. Normal tissue doses were compared for patients remaining eligible for radical RT. Results: Eighty-two patients underwent PET2 scans between October 2004 and February 2007. Of these, 21 had a prior PET1 scan, median 23 days apart (range 8–176 days). Six patients (29%) were unsuitable for radical RT after PET2; five received palliative treatment and one received no treatment. Patients treated palliatively had significantly worse OS and PFS than patients treated radically p < 0.001. Mean RT tumour volume increased from 105cc to 198cc (p < 0.005) between scans. Conclusions: Disease progression while awaiting initiation of curative RT in NSCLC is associated with larger treatment volumes and worse survival

  3. Systematic register of nuclear accidents

    The Systematic Register of Nuclear Accidents is a consolidation of important accidents occurred in the world during the period 1945-1984. Important accidents can be defined as those involving high radiation doses, which require the exposed individuals to undergo medical treatment. The organization and structuring of this register rests on the necessity for the availability of a database specifically oriented to researchers interested in studying the different nuclear accidents reported. Approximately 150 accidents in that period are presented in a summary form; these accidents had been described or reported in the scientific literature or made known through informal communications of Brazilian and foreign institutions and researchers. This register can be of interest particularly to all professionals who either directly of indirectly work in the area of nuclear or radioactive installations safety. In order to facilitate analysis by the researcher, that casuistic system was divided into 3 groups: criticality accidents (table I), fall-out on Marshall Islands (table II) and external irradiation accidents (table III). It is also included an overview of accidents in that period, indicating the total number of victims, fatal cases, and number of survivors. The author offers to the reader an extensive bibliography on the accidents described. (Author)

  4. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  5. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K (Dept. of Radiology, Toeoeloe Hospital, Helsinki (Finland)), email: frank.bensch@hus.fi

    2011-12-15

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  6. A review of internal exposure accidents

    The definition of an internal exposure accident is much more difficult to establish clearly than the one concerning external overexposures. For the latter, the notion is implicitly related to resulting health damage, while in most cases any internal contamination, regardless of its level and the upcoming or no of a detriment, is qualified as accidental. Therefore, this overview is limited to (1) large scale internal exposure accidents because large groups of individuals, highly contaminated or not, were involved; (2) occupational contaminations which sometimes resulted into long-term health effects, and (3) the results of the follow-up of patients who were either explored or treated in the 30s and 50s by alpha emitting radionuclides. Among large-scale accidents, mention is made of the 1954 american nuclear test in the Pacific ocean, uncorrectly programmed and responsible for thyroid diseases, of the 1957 accident in the Mayak complex in the Urals, of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in 1986 and of the 1987 Goiania accident due to the uncontrolled dismantling of a teletherapy source. Among occupational contaminations, several medical and epidemiological follows-up are of particular interest, such as those concerning dial painters who used radium in the years 1910 and uranium miners, although it is difficult to qualify as accidental these practices, even if the doses received at this time were widely in excess of the limits in use nowadays. Taking into account the previous caution, the groups of patients who received relatively large amounts of thorotrast (used as contrast material) and of radium (considered as a large spectrum therapeutic agent) are very interesting as well; these two medical practices resulted into various long-term health effects, and were used, in some degree, to quantify the risk in man of alpha emitters. (author)

  7. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, contamination of places and foods has been a matter of concern. Unfortunately, agricultural producers have few sources of information and have had to rely on the lessons from the Chernobyl accident in 1986 or on information obtained from the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, as of this writing, data on the specific consequences of the Fukushima accident on Japanese agriculture remain limited. More than 80% of the land that suffered from the accident was related to agriculture or was in forests and meadows. The in fluence of the accident on agriculture was the most difficult to study because the activity in nature had to be dealt with. For example, when contaminated rice is harvested, scientists working on rice plants and soils and the study of watercourses or mountains have to collaborate to analyze or determine the vehicle by which the radioactivity accumulated and through which it spread in nature. At the request of agriculturists in Fukushima, we at the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at The University of Tokyo have been urgently collecting reliable data on the contamination of soil, plants, milk, and crops. Based on our data, we would like to comment on or propose an effective way of resuming agricultural activity. Because obtaining research results based on in situ experiments is time-consuming, we have been periodically holding research report meetings at our university every 3-4 months for lay people, showing them how the contamination situation has changed or what type of effect can be estimated. Although our research is still ongoing, we would like to summarize in this book our observations made during the one and a half years after the accident. (author)

  8. Severe accident analysis methodology in support of accident management

    The author addresses the implementation at BELGATOM of a generic severe accident analysis methodology, which is intended to support strategic decisions and to provide quantitative information in support of severe accident management. The analysis methodology is based on a combination of severe accident code calculations, generic phenomenological information (experimental evidence from various test facilities regarding issues beyond present code capabilities) and detailed plant-specific technical information

  9. Stress in accident and post-accident management at Chernobyl

    The effects of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on the psychology of the affected population have been much discussed. The psychological dimension has been advanced as a factor explaining the emergence, from 1990 onwards, of a post-accident crisis in the main CIS countries affected. This article presents the conclusions of a series of European studies, which focused on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. These studies show that the psychological and social effects associated with the post-accident situation arise from the interdependency of a number of complex factors exerting a deleterious effect on the population. We shall first attempt to characterise the stress phenomena observed among the population affected by the accident. Secondly, we will be presenting an anlysis of the various factors that have contributed to the emerging psychological and social features of population reaction to the accident and in post-accident phases, while not neglecting the effects of the pre-accident situation on the target population. Thirdly, we shall devote some initial consideration to the conditions that might be conducive to better management of post-accident stress. In conclusion, we shall emphasise the need to restore confidence among the population generally. (Author)

  10. Analysis of hot leg natural circulation under station blackout severe accident

    2007-01-01

    Under severe accidents, natural circulation flows are important to influence the accident progression and result in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). In a station blackout accident with no recovery of steam generator (SG) auxiliary feedwater (TMLB' severe accident scenario), the hot leg countercurrent natural circulation flow is analyzed by using a severe-accident code, to better understand its potential impacts on the creep-rupture timing among the surge line, the hot leg, and SG tubes. The results show that the natural circulation may delay the failure time of the hot leg.The recirculation ratio and the hot mixing factor are also calculated and discussed.

  11. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    Jang, H. S.; Jeon, M. H.; Cho, N. J. and others [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-01-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts.

  12. Business cycles and workplace accidents in Iceland 1986- 2011

    Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is the first to explore the association between business cycles and workplace accidents using Icelandic data. The relationship is evaluated for the entire labor market, for specific sectors, by gender and by the severity of injuries. Most prior research has found workplace accidents to be pro-cyclical. Hypothesized reasons include increased labor supply and greater work intensity in upswings, and that accidents are more likely to be reported. Aggregate data for workplace accidents from the Administration of Occupational Safety and Health and several macroeconomic indicators from Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour were examined. The time series were non-stationary so first differences were used to detrend them. Their relationship was then examined using a linear regression model. Data from the Directorate of Health in Iceland and Statistics Iceland were used to calculate the relative risk of an accident. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycles and work-place accidents were observed, particularly in construction, in commerce and for men. The results of the relative-risk calculations indicated that workers were at considerably greater risk of having an accident in 2007 than in 2004-2006 and 2008-2011. By comparing the different estimations of the study, one can conclude that only a small part of the variability of risk can be explained by changes in labour supply. Increased risk at work, given the labor supply, seems to be a more significant reason for increased prevalence of accidents during periods of economic expansion.

  13. Accident management insights from IPE's

    In response to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Generic Letter 88-20, each utility in the U.S.A. has undertaken a probabilistic severe accident study of each plant. This paper provides a high level summary of the generic PWR accident management insights that have been obtained from the IPE reports. More importantly, the paper details some of the limitations of the IPE studies with respect to accident management. The IPE studies and the methodology used was designed to provide a best estimate of the potential for a severe accident and/or for severe consequences from a core damage accident. The accepted methodology employs a number of assumptions to make the objective attainable with a reasonable expenditure of resources. However, some of the assumptions represent limitations with respect to developing an accident management program based solely on the IPE and its results. (author)

  14. Unrecorded Accidents Detection on Highways Based on Temporal Data Mining

    Shi An

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automatic traffic accident detection, especially not recorded by traffic police, is crucial to accident black spots identification and traffic safety. A new method of detecting traffic accidents is proposed based on temporal data mining, which can identify the unknown and unrecorded accidents by traffic police. Time series model was constructed using ternary numbers to reflect the state of traffic flow based on cell transmission model. In order to deal with the aftereffects of linear drift between time series and to reduce the computational cost, discrete Fourier transform was implemented to turn time series from time domain to frequency domain. The pattern of the time series when an accident happened could be recognized using the historical crash data. Then taking Euclidean distance as the similarity evaluation function, similarity data mining of the transformed time series was carried out. If the result was less than the given threshold, the two time series were similar and an accident happened probably. A numerical example was carried out and the results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Accident management insights after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, that took place on 11 March 2011, initiated a significant number of activities at the national and international levels to reassess the safety of existing NPPs, evaluate the sufficiency of technical means and administrative measures available for emergency response, and develop recommendations for increasing the robustness of NPPs to withstand extreme external events and beyond design basis accidents. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is working closely with its member and partner countries to examine the causes of the accident and to identify lessons learnt with a view to the appropriate follow-up actions to be taken by the nuclear safety community. Accident management is a priority area of work for the NEA to address lessons being learnt from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP following the recommendations of Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA), Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI), and Committee on Radiation Protection and Public Health (CRPPH). Considering the importance of these issues, the CNRA authorised the formation of a task group on accident management (TGAM) in June 2012 to review the regulatory framework for accident management following the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. The task group was requested to assess the NEA member countries needs and challenges in light of the accident from a regulatory point of view. The general objectives of the TGAM review were to consider: - enhancements of on-site accident management procedures and guidelines based on lessons learnt from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident; - decision-making and guiding principles in emergency situations; - guidance for instrumentation, equipment and supplies for addressing long-term aspects of accident management; - guidance and implementation when taking extreme measures for accident management. The report is built on the existing bases for capabilities to respond to design basis

  16. Accident management approach in Armenia

    In this lecture the accident management approach in Armenian NPP (ANPP) Unit 2 is described. List of BDBAs had been developed by OKB Gydropress in 1994. 13 accident sequences were included in this list. The relevant analyses had been performed in VNIIAES and the 'Guidelines on operator actions for beyond design basis accident (BDBA) management at ANPP Unit 2' had been prepared. These instructions are discussed

  17. Chernobyl reactor accident

    Following the accident at Chernobyl nuclear reactor, WHO organized on 6 May 1986 in Copenhagen a one day consultation of experts with knowledge in the fields of meteorology, radiation protection, biological effects, reactor technology, emergency procedures, public health and psychology in order to analyse the development of events and their consequences and to provide guidance as to the needs for immediate public health action. The present report provides detailed information on the transportation and dispersion of the radioactive material in the atmosphere, especially volatile elements, during the release period 26 April - 5 May. Presented are the calculated directions and locations of the radioactive plume over Europe in the first 5 days after the accident, submitted by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The calculations have been made for two heights, 1500m and 750m and the plume directions are grouped into five periods, covering five European areas. The consequences of the accident inside the USSR and the radiological consequences outside the USSR are presented including the exposure routes and the biological effects, paying particular attention to iodine-131 effects. Summarized are the first reported measured exposure rates above background, iodine-131 deposition and concentrations in milk and the remedial actions taken in various European countries. Concerning the cesium-137 problem, based on the UNSCEAR assessment of the consequences of the nuclear fallout, one concludes that the cesium contamination outside the USSR is not likely to cause any serious problems. Finally, the conclusions and the recommendations of the meeting, taking into account both the short-term and longer term considerations are presented

  18. Flexible survival regression modelling

    Cortese, Giuliana; Scheike, Thomas H; Martinussen, Torben

    2009-01-01

    time-varying effects. The introduced models are all applied to data on breast cancer from the Norwegian cancer registry, and these analyses clearly reveal the shortcomings of Cox's regression model and the need for other supplementary analyses with models such as those we present here.......Regression analysis of survival data, and more generally event history data, is typically based on Cox's regression model. We here review some recent methodology, focusing on the limitations of Cox's regression model. The key limitation is that the model is not well suited to represent time...

  19. Serious accident in Peru

    A peruvian man, victim of an important accidental irradiation arrived on the Saturday twenty ninth of may 1999 to the centre of treatment of serious burns at the Percy military hospital (Clamart -France). The accident spent on the twentieth of February 1999, on the site of a hydroelectric power plant, in construction at 300 km at the East of Lima. The victim has picked up an industrial source of iridium devoted to gamma-graphy operations and put it in his back pocket; of trousers. The workman has serious radiation burns. (N.C.)

  20. The accident of Chernobyl

    RBMK reactors (reactor control, protection systems, containment) and the nuclear power plant of Chernobyl are first presented. The scenario of the accident is given with a detailed chronology. The actions and consequences on the site are reviewed. This report then give the results of the source term estimation (fision product release, core inventory, trajectories, meteorological data...), the radioactivity measurements obtained in France. Health consequences for the French population are evoked. The medical consequences for the population who have received a high level of doses are reviewed

  1. Accident prevention programme

    This study by the Steel Industry Safety and Health Commission was made within the context of the application by undertakings of the principles of accident and disease prevention previously adopted by the said Commission. It puts forward recommendations for the effective and gradual implementation of a programme of action on occupational health and safety in the various departments of an undertaking and in the undertaking as a whole. The methods proposed in this study are likely to be of interest to all undertakings in the metallurgical industry and other industrial sectors

  2. Psychological response of accident

    The psychological status of rescuers of consequences of Chernobyl[s accidents, having planned stationary examination and treatment of common somatic diseases, has been examined. THe age of men represented the study group was 35-54 years old. The results of medical-psychological examination showed the development in rescuers of common dysadaptation and stress state, characterized by depressive-hypochondriac state with high anxiety. The course of psychotherapeutic activities made possible to improve essentionally the psychological status of the patients. 12 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  3. Reactor accident in Chernobyl

    The bibliography contains 1568 descriptions of papers devoted to Chernobylsk accident and recorded in ''INIS Atomindex'' to 30 June 1990. The descriptions were taken from ''INIS Atomindex'' and are presented in accordance with volumes of this journal (chronology of recording). Therefore all descriptions have numbers showing first the number of volume and then the number of record. The bibliography has at the end the detailed subject index consisting of 465 main headings and a lot of qualifiers. Some of them are descriptors taken from ''INIS Atomindex'' and some are key words taken from natural language. The index is in English as descriptions in the bibliography. (author)

  4. CAMS: Computerized Accident Management Support

    The OECD Halden Reactor Project has initiated a new research programme on computerised accident management support, the so-called CAMS project (CAMS = Computerized Accident Management Support). This work will investigate the possibilities for developing systems which provide more extensive support to the control room staff and technical support centre than the existing SPDS (Safety Parameter Display System) type of systems. The CAMS project will utilize available simulator codes and the capabilities of computerized tools to assist the plant staff during the various accident stages including: identification of the accident state, assessment of the future development of the accident, and planning accident mitigation strategies. This research programme aims at establishing a prototype system which can be used for experimental testing of the concept and serve as a tool for training and education in accident management. The CAMS prototype should provide support to the staff when the plant is in a normal state, in a disturbance sate, and in an accident state. Even though better support in an accident state is the main goal of the project, it is felt to be important that the staff is familiar with the use of the system during normal operation, when they utilize the system during transients

  5. Iodine releases from reactor accidents

    The airborne releases of iodine from water reactor accidents are small fractions of the available iodine and occur only slowly. However, in reactor accidents in which water is absent, the release of iodine to the environment can be large and rapid. These differences in release fraction and rate are related to the chemical states attained by iodine under the accident conditions. It is clear that neither rapid issue of blocking KI nor rapid evacuation of the surrounding population is required to protect the public from the radioiodine released in the event of a major water reactor accident

  6. Guidance on accidents involving radioactivity

    This annex contains advice to Health Authorities on their response to accidents involving radioactivity. The guidance is in six parts:-(1) planning the response required to nuclear accidents overseas, (2) planning the response required to UK nuclear accidents a) emergency plans for nuclear installations b) nuclear powered satellites, (3) the handling of casualties contaminated with radioactive substances, (4) background information for dealing with queries from the public in the event of an accident, (5) the national arrangements for incident involving radioactivity (NAIR), (6) administrative arrangements. (author)

  7. Survival After Relapse of Medulloblastoma.

    Koschmann, Carl; Bloom, Karina; Upadhyaya, Santhosh; Geyer, J Russell; Leary, Sarah E S

    2016-05-01

    Survival after recurrence of medulloblastoma has not been reported in an unselected cohort of patients in the contemporary era. We reviewed 55 patients diagnosed with medulloblastoma between 2000 and 2010, and treated at Seattle Children's Hospital to evaluate patterns of relapse treatment and survival. Fourteen of 47 patients (30%) over the age of 3 experienced recurrent or progressive medulloblastoma after standard therapy. The median time from diagnosis to recurrence was 18.0 months (range, 3.6 to 62.6 mo), and site of recurrence was metastatic in 86%. The median survival after relapse was 10.3 months (range, 1.3 to 80.5 mo); 3-year survival after relapse was 18%. There were trend associations between longer survival and having received additional chemotherapy (median survival 12.8 vs. 1.3 mo, P=0.16) and radiation therapy (15.4 vs. 5.9 mo, P=0.20). Isolated local relapse was significantly associated with shorter survival (1.3 vs. 12.8 mo, P=0.009). Recurrence of medulloblastoma is more likely to be metastatic than reported in previous eras. Within the limits of our small sample, our data suggest a potential survival benefit from retreatment with cytotoxic chemotherapy and radiation even in heavily pretreated patients. This report serves as a baseline against which to evaluate novel therapy combinations. PMID:26907655

  8. Clustered survival data with left-truncation

    Eriksson, Frank; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    Left-truncation occurs frequently in survival studies, and it is well known how to deal with this for univariate survival times. However, there are few results on how to estimate dependence parameters and regression effects in semiparametric models for clustered survival data with delayed entry...

  9. Medical consequences of radiation accidents

    Since 1945, more than 1.8 x 1021 Bq of artificial radionuclides have been released into the atmosphere. Approximately 2.04 x 1018B, i.e. approx. 0.11%, are the result of accidents at nuclear industrial facilities. This percentage is causing increased interest among researchers. This is due to the fact that in the wake of accidental release radionuclides become distributed unevenly across the Earth's surface, and the associated exposures, fluctuating from background level to several grays, an induce both stochastic and deterministic effects in the irradiated population. A comparative analysis of the medical consequences of the twentieth century's most serious nuclear events, namely the authorized dumping of high level radioactive waste into the river Techa in 1950, the explosion of a storage tank containing long lived radioactive waste in the Southern Urals in 1957, the fire at Sellafield in 1957 and the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986, has shown that when timely countermeasures are taken, the worst immediate and delayed medical consequences of an accident can be avoided. The consequences that have since been ascertained are a brief rise in the mortality rate during the first five years, with a dose in excess of 500 mSv; an increase in the incidence of leukaemia, with an absolute risk of up to 1.1. x 10-4 man·years/Gy; and increased mortality among children with external radiation doses of up to 1000 mSv, and internal doses of 99-190 mSv on the bone surfaces of neonates or 170-600 mSv on the bone surfaces of the mother. There is reliable evidence that, with external gamma radiation doses in excess of 520 mSv, the mortality rate for all malignant tumorous increases by 45-58% compared with the control level. There is also a significant increase in thyroid cancer frequency four to ten years after the incorporation of iodine isotopes by children aged up to 7 years, including an accumulation period in the womb. (author). 12 refs, 7 tabs

  10. ANS severe accident program overview & planning document

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1995-09-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) severe accident document was developed to provide a concise and coherent mechanism for presenting the ANS SAP goals, a strategy satisfying these goals, a succinct summary of the work done to date, and what needs to be done in the future to ensure timely licensability. Guidance was received from various bodies [viz., panel members of the ANS severe accident workshop and safety review committee, Department of Energy (DOE) orders, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements for ALWRs and advanced reactors, ACRS comments, world-wide trends] were utilized to set up the ANS-relevant SAS goals and strategy. An in-containment worker protection goal was also set up to account for the routine experimenters and other workers within containment. The strategy for achieving the goals is centered upon closing the severe accident issues that have the potential for becoming certification issues when assessed against realistic bounding events. Realistic bounding events are defined as events with an occurrency frequency greater than 10{sup {minus}6}/y. Currently, based upon the level-1 probabilistic risk assessment studies, the realistic bounding events for application for issue closure are flow blockage of fuel element coolant channels, and rapid depressurization-related accidents.

  11. Radiation accident grips Goiania

    On 13 September two young scavengers in Goiania, Brazil, removed a stainless steel cylinder from a cancer therapy machine in an abandoned clinic, touching off a radiation accident second only to Chernobyl in its severity. On 18 September they sold the cylinder, the size of a 1-gallon paint can, to a scrap dealer for $25. At the junk yard an employee dismantled the cylinder and pried open the platinum capsule inside to reveal a glowing blue salt-like substance - 1400 curies of cesium-137. Fascinated by the luminescent powder, several people took it home with them. Some children reportedly rubbed in on their bodies like carnival glitter - an eerie image of how wrong things can go when vigilance over radioactive materials lapses. In all, 244 people in Goiania, a city of 1 million in central Brazil, were contaminated. The eventual toll, in terms of cancer or genetic defects, cannot yet be estimated. Parts of the city are cordoned off as radiation teams continue washing down buildings and scooping up radioactive soil. The government is also grappling with the political fallout from the accident

  12. Serious reactor accidents reconsidered

    The chance is determined for damage of the reactor core and that sequel events will cause excursion of radioactive materials into the environment. The gravity of such an accident is expressed by the source term. It appears that the chance for such an accident varies with the source term. In general it is valid that how larger the source term how smaller the chance is for it and vice versa. The chance for excursion is related to two complexes of events: serious damage (meltdown) of the reactor core, and the escape of the liberated radionuclides into the environment. The results are an order of magnitude consideration of the relation between the extent of the source term and the chance for it. From the spectrum of possible source terms three representative ones have been chosen: a large, a medium and a relative small source term. This choice is in accordance with international considerations. The hearth of this study is the estimation of the chance for occurrence of the three chosen source terms for new light-water reactors. refs.; figs.; tabs

  13. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 1/5. Description and Context of the Accident. Annexes

    The Fukushima Daiichi Accident consists of a Report by the IAEA Director General and five technical volumes. It is the result of an extensive international collaborative effort involving five working groups with about 180 experts from 42 Member States with and without nuclear power programmes and several international bodies. It provides a description of the accident and its causes, evolution and consequences, based on the evaluation of data and information from a large number of sources available at the time of writing. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident will be of use to national authorities, international organizations, nuclear regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant operating organizations, designers of nuclear facilities and other experts in matters relating to nuclear power, as well as the wider public. The set contains six printed parts and five supplementary CD-ROMs. Contents: Report by the Director General; Technical Volume 1/5, Description and Context of the Accident; Technical Volume 2/5, Safety Assessment; Technical Volume 3/5, Emergency Preparedness and Response; Technical Volume 4/5, Radiological Consequences; Technical Volume 5/5, Post-accident Recovery; Annexes. The Report by the Director General is available separately in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish and Japanese

  14. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 5/5. Post-accident Recovery. Annexes

    The Fukushima Daiichi Accident consists of a Report by the IAEA Director General and five technical volumes. It is the result of an extensive international collaborative effort involving five working groups with about 180 experts from 42 Member States with and without nuclear power programmes and several international bodies. It provides a description of the accident and its causes, evolution and consequences, based on the evaluation of data and information from a large number of sources available at the time of writing. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident will be of use to national authorities, international organizations, nuclear regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant operating organizations, designers of nuclear facilities and other experts in matters relating to nuclear power, as well as the wider public. The set contains six printed parts and five supplementary CD-ROMs. Contents: Report by the Director General; Technical Volume 1/5, Description and Context of the Accident; Technical Volume 2/5, Safety Assessment; Technical Volume 3/5, Emergency Preparedness and Response; Technical Volume 4/5, Radiological Consequences; Technical Volume 5/5, Post-accident Recovery; Annexes. The Report by the Director General is available separately in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish and Japanese

  15. Psychological and social impacts of post-accident situations: lessons from the Chernobyl accident

    This paper presents the main features, from the psychological and social points of view, of the post-accident situation in the contaminated areas around Chernobyl. This is based on a series of surveys performed in the concerned territories of the CIS republics. The high level of stress affecting a large segment of the population is related to the perception of the situation by those living in a durably contaminated environment but also to the side-effects of some of the countermeasures adopted to mitigate the radiological consequences or to compensate the affected population. The distinction between the accident and the post-accident phase is enlarged to take into account the various phases characterizing the dynamics of the social response. Although the size of the catastrophe as well as the economic and political conditions that were prevailing at the time and after the accident have resulted in a maximal intensity of the reactions of the population, many lessons can be drawn for the management of potential post-accident situations. (author)

  16. Traffic Accident, System Model and Cluster Analysis in GIS

    Veronika Vlčková

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the many often frequented topics as normal journalism, so the professional public, is the problem of traffic accidents. This article illustrates the orientation of considerations to a less known context of accidents, with the help of constructive systems theory and its methods, cluster analysis and geoinformation engineering. Traffic accident is reframing the space-time, and therefore it can be to study with tools of technology of geographic information systems. The application of system approach enabling the formulation of the system model, grabbed by tools of geoinformation engineering and multicriterial and cluster analysis.

  17. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 μSv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  18. Expert software for accident identification

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  19. Containment severe accident thermohydraulic phenomena

    This report describes and discusses the containment accident progression and the important severe accident containment thermohydraulic phenomena. The overall objective of the report is to provide a rather detailed presentation of the present status of phenomenological knowledge, including an account of relevant experimental investigations and to discuss, to some extent, the modelling approach used in the MAAP 3.0 computer code. The MAAP code has been used in Sweden as the main tool in the analysis of severe accidents. The dependence of the containment accident progression and containment phenomena on the initial conditions, which in turn are heavily dependent on the in-vessel accident progression and phenomena as well as associated uncertainties, is emphasized. The report is in three parts dealing with: * Swedish reactor containments, the severe accident mitigation programme in Sweden and containment accident progression in Swedish PWRs and BWRs as predicted by the MAAP 3.0 code. * Key non-energetic ex-vessel phenomena (melt fragmentation in water, melt quenching and coolability, core-concrete interaction and high temperature in containment). * Early containment threats due to energetic events (hydrogen combustion, high pressure melt ejection and direct containment heating, and ex-vessel steam explosions). The report concludes that our understanding of the containment severe accident progression and phenomena has improved very significantly over the parts ten years and, thereby, our ability to assess containment threats, to quantify uncertainties, and to interpret the results of experiments and computer code calculations have also increased. (au)

  20. First Responders and Criticality Accidents

    Valerie L. Putman; Douglas M. Minnema

    2005-11-01

    Nuclear criticality accident descriptions typically include, but do not focus on, information useful to first responders. We studied these accidents, noting characteristics to help (1) first responders prepare for such an event and (2) emergency drill planners develop appropriate simulations for training. We also provide recommendations to help people prepare for such events in the future.

  1. Severe accident recriticality analyses (SARA)

    Frid, W.; Højerup, C.F.; Lindholm, I.;

    2001-01-01

    Recriticality in a BWR during reflooding of an overheated partly degraded core, i.e. with relocated control rods, has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management strategies, the ...

  2. The Chernobyl accident. Appendix B

    In appendix B, the models introduced in chapter 6 are applied to the study of the Chernobyl accident. This event is very important in the teaching of nuclear engineering, and I have included in this Appendix a relatively detailed description of the accident. However, the analysis is limited to the physics of the relevant phenomena. (author)

  3. Preventing accidents at intake towers

    Villegas, F. (INTEGRAL S.A., Medellin, CO (United States))

    1994-03-01

    Strong air blow-outs occurring in the intake tower of Guatape Hydroelectric Power Plant in Colombia have caused two serious accidents recently. The causes of the accidents were investigated and recommendations are made here to prevent future repetitions of these dangerous events. (UK)

  4. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated.

  5. Cerebrovascular Accident (Stroke) in Captive, Group-Housed, Female Chimpanzees

    Jean, Sherrie M; Preuss, Todd M; Sharma, Prachi; Anderson, Daniel C.; Provenzale, James M.; Strobert, Elizabeth; Ross, Stephen R.; Stroud, Fawn C

    2012-01-01

    Over a 5-y period, 3 chimpanzees at our institution experienced cerebrovascular accidents (strokes). In light of the increasing population of aged captive chimpanzees and lack of literature documenting the prevalence and effectiveness of various treatments for stroke in chimpanzees, we performed a retrospective review of the medical records and necropsy reports from our institution. A survey was sent to other facilities housing chimpanzees that participate in the Chimpanzee Species Survival P...

  6. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    McClure, J. D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10/sup -7/ spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10/sup -9//mile.

  7. Road Traffic Accidents - The Number One Killer in Libya

    Abdulmajid Ahmed Ali

    2007-01-01

    and a seatbelt. I had to apologize profusely to the young traffic policeman and explain that I was wearing sunglasses because I was driving facing the sun! The reason for wearing the seatbelt was a habit from living abroad for many years and I was not a "show off" as he put it! This incidence made me wonder how much the traffic police knew about the law?• In Libya the way we behave in the street, the way we drive and our attitude towards pedestrians is not taught in schools at an early age. As a matter of fact, many drivers think it is "cool" to scare pedestrians.• Most of the accidents in Libya occur at school times but unfortunately no measures are taken by the traffic police to help young children to cross roads safely.• Most of the road traffic accidents happen at the same areas but these are never identified as "black spots" to warn drivers of the possible dangers.• Although Zebra Crossings exist in some parts of Libya, they actually do not serve the purpose. We just need to count how many pedestrians (especially foreign visitors have been knocked down at Zebra Crossings.• There is a need for new road signs, clear road markings (lanes, and new traffic lights to replace old and often non-functioning ones.• One study demonstrated that speeding was responsible for about 70% of accidents [4]. There are no speed cameras or road humps to slow down speeding cars, therefore residents who have lost children to road traffic accidents resort to building their own version of street humps made from old pipes, thick ropes or cement.• Most of the main roads are full of holes and in desperate need of maintenance.• Car seats for children are not compulsory.• When accidents happen in Libya, what number do we dial? Do emergency services exist?• It is a known fact that most of the deaths and permanent disabilities in road traffic accidents are caused by people trying to help due to the lack of Advanced Trauma and Life Support (ATLS trained personnel [5,6].• It

  8. Summary report on the post-accident review meeting on the Chernobyl accident

    After an Executive Summary which gives an overview of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, the first section of the main INSAG report presents the understanding of INSAG members of the causes of the accident, concluding that it was the result of a remarkable range of human errors and violation of operating rules, in combination with specific reactor features which compounded and amplified the effects of the errors and led to the reactivity excursion. The second section presents the problem of radionuclide release from the damaged reactor, showing that there was an initial intense release associated with the destructive events in the accident, then the release rates fell over the next few days up to 7x1016 Bq/d five days after the accident initiation, and at that point the release rates began to increase and reached about 3x1017 Bq/d nine days after the accident initiation. There was then a drop in the radionuclide release to 4x1013 Bq/d and the release rates have continued to decline since that time. The next section describes the accident management at the site, fire-fighting, cleanup of the site and the entombment of the damaged unit. In the fourth section the radiation protection aspects of the accident, the radionuclide transfer through the environment, the exposure of members of the public pointing to the radionuclides iodine-131 and cesium-137 which entered the food-chains, the on-site and off-site emergency response, the decontamination and the health effects including both the early non-stochastic effects and the late stochastic ones are presented. Safety issues to be pursued in order to derive whatever safety lessons can be learned from the Chernobyl accident are considered in Section V. The next two sections present INSAG's observations, conclusions and recommendations based on the lessons learned so far from the accident and ranging from reactor operation to radiation protection and international co-operation in nuclear safety. Finally the

  9. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...... occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA...... method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents...

  10. Severe accidents, a US approach

    The attitude of the American nuclear industry and the regulatory authorities in the United States toward severe accidents has often seemed ambivalent. It was common a few years ago to assume the position that severe accidents should not be included in the design basis of the plant. This view was associated with the concept of the maximum credible accident. A severe accident that would lead to a large release of fission products from the reactor core was simply regarded as having so low a likelihood as not to be credible. That does not mean that it had a zero probability of occurring. Because of the way the plant was designed, built, and operated, severe accidents were regarded as having a low enough probability that no further special measures were necessary regarding them. (author)

  11. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. PMID:23928504

  12. Pseuchoneurotic disorders associated with the Chernobyl accident

    This survey relied largely on random selection. As a rule, the attention of the specialists was directed to people with certain specific complaints. Psychogenic disorders observed in the area of the accident at the Chernobyl plant were followed and studied by a team of specialists from the USSR Ministry of Health, beginning on 29 April 1986. According to the nature of the observed stress effects and of the resultant psychic disorders, it was possible to delineate three periods: first the acute period of the disaster from the time of the accident, lasting about 10 days until completion of the evacuation of the population from the danger zone (5 May); second the intermediate delayed period, the period of comparatively early consequences (from 6 May to October 1986); and third, the period of remote consequences. In the course of the year, 1,572 people were examined. The data available indicate that the psychogenic disorders observed after the Chernobyl accident can be regarded as the consequence of a single process, the dynamics of which are determined on the one hand by the characteristics of the emergency situation and on the other by the traits and the degree of preparedness of the people involved. The special nature of the stress situation in all three periods - the threat to health - gave rise to certain characteristic clinical observations, primarily a high degree of somatization and hypochondria. An understanding of the psychological disorders affecting those who lived through the Chernobyl accident, and of their effects on the work capability and pattern of life of people at various stages after the accident, has made it possible to develop and implement a complex and refined system of prophylactic and medical measures. (author)

  13. Severe accident management. Prevention and Mitigation

    Effective planning for the management of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can produce both a reduction in the frequency of such accidents as well as the ability to mitigate their consequences if and when they should occur. This report provides an overview of accident management activities in OECD countries. It also presents the conclusions of a group of international experts regarding the development of accident management methods, the integration of accident management planning into reactor operations, and the benefits of accident management

  14. Accidents, probabilities and consequences

    Following brief discussion of the safety of wind-driven power plants and solar power plants, some aspects of the safety of fast breeder and thermonuclear power plants are presented. It is pointed out that no safety evaluation of breeders comparable to the Rasmussen investigation has been carried out and that discussion of the safety aspects of thermonuclear power is only just begun. Finally, as an illustration of the varying interpretations of risk and safety analyses, four examples are given of predicted probabilities and consequences in Copenhagen of the maximum credible accident at the Barsebaeck plant, under the most unfavourable meterological conditions. These are made by the Environment Commission, Risoe Research Establishment, REO (a pro-nuclear group) and OOA (an anti-nuclear group), and vary by a factor of over 1000. (JIW)

  15. Dosimetry studies for an industrial radiography accident

    On 5 June 1979, an industrial worker who was not involved with radiography found an 192Ir source that had accidently become detached and lost from its shielded camera. He placed the source in the hip pocket of his coveralls and returned to work, keeping the 192Ir source for some time before taking it to the plant manager. The biophysical calculations for the determination of exposure and depth-dose calculations are the basis for this paper

  16. Road Traffic Accidents in Uganda in view of Taxi Drivers Masaka District

    Nnajjuma, Hellen

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore how psychosocial lived experiences of taxi drivers explain accident involvement in Uganda. Face to face in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with six male taxi drivers who survived accidents while driving and still served as taxi drivers. The sample was identified with purposive and snowball sampling techniques. Ethical considerations were observed during data collection through transcription, analysis to the final compilation. Interpretive p...

  17. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. PMID:24237855

  18. Clinical symptoms of sleep apnea syndrome and automobile accidents

    Haraldsson, P O; Carenfelt, C; Diderichsen, Finn;

    1990-01-01

    careful driving or not, the rate of car accidents over a 5-year period was investigated. A questionnaire was addressed to 140 patients with and 142 controls without symptoms associated to SAS. Seventy-three of the patients had a complete triad of SAS-associated symptoms. Fifty-two percent of these...... patients reported habitual sleep spells at the wheel, as opposed to less than one percent by the controls. The ratio of drivers being involved in one or more combined-car accident was similar for patients and control drivers, but for single-car accidents the ratio was about 7 times higher for patients with...... a complete triad of symptoms of SAS compared to controls (p less than 0.001). When corrected for mileage driven, the total number of single-car accidents was almost 12 times higher among patients with sleep spells whilst driving, compared to controls (p less than 0.001). It is concluded that drivers...

  19. The Fukushima accident

    The accident happened on March 11, 2011 in the nuclear reactors at the Fukushima plant, Japan, is described. The reactors of the Fukushima plant have been power reactors. The electrical energy is produced by use of the heat released in the fission. Nuclear reactors were affected after of the power outage as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami, and this has kept in operation the refrigeration systems. The japanese reactors have been fission reactors and have used uranium 235 or plutonium 239 as fissionable material. The nuclear reactions of fission are explained. The control of the nuclear reactions at Fukushima was complicated by the decreased of the neutrons absorption and has produced more reactions, generating great amounts of heat. The steam contaminated with the products of fission is produced by to cool the reactor with water. The fissionable material released is dragged until the atmosphere. Radioactive contamination at sites near the reactor was covered in a zone of exclusion with a radius of 30 km. The effects of radioactive contamination in the zone of exclusion are mentioned. The radioactive material from Japan has traveled with the wind in direction toward the north pole. The radioactive cloud has continued until to reach the north Africa and south of Europe. The cloud has approximated to Costa Rica, but the activity of the material found has been less of 0,01 Bq/m3. The Centro de Investigacion en Ciencias Atomicas, Nucleares y Moleculares (Cicanum) has initiated the collection of soil samples, water and earth products to detect part of the radioactive material from the cloud. The Cicanum has had modern equipments to quantify the specific concentrations of radioactive isotope, alpha emitters, beta and gamma, in food, water and milk. The Cicanum has maintained the radiological surveillance of foods after the Chernobyl accident

  20. Survival after blood transfusion

    Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Ahlgren, Martin; Rostgaard, Klaus;

    2008-01-01

    of transfusion recipients in Denmark and Sweden followed for up to 20 years after their first blood transfusion. Main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,118,261 transfusion recipients were identified, of whom 62.0 percent were aged 65 years or older at the time of their...... 17 years the SMR remained significantly 1.3-fold increased. CONCLUSION: The survival and relative mortality patterns among blood transfusion recipients were characterized with unprecedented detail and precision. Our results are relevant to assessments of the consequences of possible transfusion......-transmitted disease as well as for cost-benefit estimation of new blood safety interventions....

  1. Design of survivable networks

    Stoer, Mechthild

    1992-01-01

    The problem of designing a cost-efficient network that survives the failure of one or more nodes or edges of the network is critical to modern telecommunications engineering. The method developed in this book is designed to solve such problems to optimality. In particular, a cutting plane approach is described, based on polyhedral combinatorics, that is ableto solve real-world problems of this type in short computation time. These results are of interest for practitioners in the area of communication network design. The book is addressed especially to the combinatorial optimization community, but also to those who want to learn polyhedral methods. In addition, interesting new research problemsare formulated.

  2. Study on the effect of the survival time and the T cells in the discordant heart xenotransplantation produced by intrathymic inoculation with xenogeneic antigen using the model of pig to monkey

    Objective: This study was designed to investigate the effect of survival time and T cells on the delayed xenograft rejection caused by intrathymic injection of xenogeneic antigen in the discordant cardiac xenotransplantation, and to investigate the possibility of inducing the tolerance for cardiac xenografts. Methods: In this experiment, pig and monkey were, respectively, selected as donor and recipient. Donor and recipient were divided randomly into four groups. In the blank group (group A) recipients didn't accept any treatments but heart xenotransplantation; In the whole body irradiation (WBI) group (group B) 3 Gy (60Co) was received on d30 before transplantation. In the intrathymic injection group (group C) monkeys were pretreated by the intrathymic injection of pig spleen cells (5 x 107) on d21 before transplantation, the other treatments were the same as that in group A. In the irradiation and intrathymic injection group (group D) monkeys were pretreated by WBI and the intrathymic injection of pig spleen cells at the time just as that in group B and group C. In every group, monkeys were performed heterotopic heart xenotransplantation in abdomen in order to observe the survival time of cardiac xenografts. Results: (1) Survival time of donor heart in group D (91.1 ± 22.8 h) was significantly longer than group B(42.56 ± 1.4 h) and group A (35.6 ± 2.2 h) (P0.05). (3) The results of MLR showed that there is significant reduction in group D than in group A and B (P+ and CD8+ T cells in peripheral blood, but pretreatment with IT and WBI can induce T cells immune 4 suppression or immune tolerance, that is similar to allotransplantation in the rodent. (2) Pretreatment with IT and WBI can induce T cells immune suppression or immune tolerance. (authors)

  3. Nuclear power plant Severe Accident Research Plan

    The Severe Accident Research Plan (SARP) will provide technical information necessary to support regulatory decisions in the severe accident area for existing or planned nuclear power plants, and covers research for the time period of January 1982 through January 1986. SARP will develop generic bases to determine how safe the plants are and where and how their level of safety ought to be improved. The analysis to address these issues will be performed using improved probabilistic risk assessment methodology, as benchmarked to more exact data and analysis. There are thirteen program elements in the plan and the work is phased in two parts, with the first phase being completed in early 1984, at which time an assessment will be made whether or not any major changes will be recommended to the Commission for operating plants to handle severe accidents. Additionally at this time, all of the thirteen program elements in Chapter 5 will be reviewed and assessed in terms of how much additional work is necessary and where major impacts in probabilistic risk assessment might be achieved. Confirmatory research will be carried out in phase II to provide additional assurance on the appropriateness of phase I decisions. Most of this work will be concluded by early 1986

  4. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research. PMID:25997167

  5. Containment building hydrogen control methods related to degraded core accidents

    Degraded core accident-related release of hydrogen under some circumstances may threaten the integrity of pressurized water reactor containment buildings. This report provides a preliminary survey of a spectrum of possible approaches which could be adopted to maintain containment building integrity under accident conditions which lead to the release of hydrogen. Particular attention is directed to large, dry containment of the Zion and Indian Point designs. For any such possible accident, there exists a sequence of time intervals characterizing the accident scenario. This report considers the generic features of these intervals and discusses the suitability of various approaches to hydrogen accident control as related to the characteristics of the interval during which they are applied. It was found that various options exist for hydrogen control strategies and that their usefulness depends on the particular accident scenarios to be considered. Of all the hydrogen control approaches considered, a strategy of continuous inerting of the containment building is the only one which clearly eliminates the combustion hazard, does not involve adverse environmental effects, and succeeds in a way that is independent of the accident scenario

  6. Severe Accident Management System On-line Network SAMSON

    SAMSON is a computational tool used by accident managers in the Technical Support Centers (TSC) and Emergency Operations Facilities (EOF) in the event of a nuclear power plant accident. SAMSON examines over 150 status points monitored by nuclear power plant process computers during a severe accident and makes predictions about when core damage, support plate failure, and reactor vessel failure will occur. These predictions are based on the current state of the plant assuming that all safety equipment not already operating will fail. SAMSON uses expert systems, as well as neural networks trained with the back propagation learning algorithms to make predictions. Training on data from an accident analysis code (MAAP - Modular Accident Analysis Program) allows SAMSON to associate different states in the plant with different times to critical failures. The accidents currently recognized by SAMSON include steam generator tube ruptures (SGTRs), with breaks ranging from one tube to eight tubes, and loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), with breaks ranging from 0.0014 square feet (1.30 cm2) in size to breaks 3.0 square feet in size (2800 cm2). (author)

  7. Accidents caused by electric currents; Unfaelle durch elektrischen Strom

    Juehling, J. [Berufsgenossenschaft der Feinmechanik und Elektrotechnik, Koeln (Germany). Inst. zur Erforschung Elektrischer Unfaelle

    1998-12-31

    The present evaluation only refers to accidents caused by electric currents in member companies of the employees` industrial compensation society of the fine mechanics and electrical engineering professions (BGFE). In some cases the institute also publishes statistics on the frequency time course of electrical accidents which deviate from those the relevant annual report. This is mainly due to the fact that these statistics also contain non-notifiable accidents communicated via medical reports and the supplementary report on electrical accidents. They further contain keyed data on electrical accidents reported by other employees` industrial compensation societies. Inquiries made to the institute may therefore be answered on the basis of all the above-mentioned data on electrical accidents as well as on the overall accident statistics of the BGFE. [Deutsch] Die nachfolgenden Auswertungen beziehen sich nur auf Unfaelle in Mitgliedsbetrieben der BG F und E, verursacht durch den elektrischen Strom. Zum Teil veroeffentlicht aber das Institut Zahlen ueber die zeitliche Entwicklung von Stromunfaellen, die nicht immer mit den Angaben der jeweiligen Jahresberichte uebereinstimmen muessen. Das liegt vor allem daran, dass auch nicht-meldepflichtige Unfaelle ueber den D-Arztbericht und ueber den Ergaenzungsbericht bei Unfaellen durch elektrischen Strom - also ueber aerztliche Erhebungsformulare - erfasst werden. Ausserdem werden auch von anderen Berufsgenossenschaften eingehende Stromunfaelle verschluesselt. Zur Beantwortung von Anfragen an das Institut koennen also all die vorgenannten Daten zu elektrischen Unfaellen und natuerlich auch die Zahlen zum Gesamtunfallgeschehen der BG F und E herangezogen werden. (orig.)

  8. A stochastic approach to accident identification in nuclear power plants

    Identification of the types of accidents and proper actions is required at an early stage of an accident in nuclear power plants. The accident of the plant can be identified by their symptom patterns related to the principal variables and operating status of major equipment. The patterns are identified by the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM), unsupervised artificial neural network, for feature mapping algorithm and the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a stochastic technique for solving the time series problem. The off-line data from a compact nuclear simulator are vector quantized by SOFM clustering algorithm. The HMM is created for each accident from a set of training data which are the result of vector quantization. The accident identification is decided by calculating which model has the highest probability for given test data. The system uses a left-to-right model including 6 states and 16 input variables to identify 7 types of accidents and the normal state. The HMM is trained by the maximum-likelihood estimation method which uses forward-backward algorithm and Baum-Welch re-estimation algorithm. The optimal path for each model at the given observation is found by Viterbi algorithm, and then the probability of optimal path is calculated. The simulation results show that the proposed system identifies the accident types correctly. It is also shown that the diagnosis is performed well for incomplete input observation caused by sensor fault or malfunction of certain equipment. (author). 13 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  9. Congestion by accident? Traffic and accidents in England

    Pasidis, Ilias-Nikiforos

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this paper is the estimation of the effect of accidents on traffic congestion and vice versa. In order to do this, I use ?big data? of highway traffic and accidents in England for the period 2007-2013. The data exhibit some remarkably stable cyclical pattern of highway traffic which is used as a research setting that enables the identification of the causal effect of accidents on traffic congestion and vice versa. The estimation draws on panel data methods that have previously bee...

  10. Can we be prepared for the next accident or catastrophe?

    Andersson, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophes and accidents (natural, technological, or man--‐made) have been subjected to scientific research from different disciplines and perspectives for a long time. Examples of these perspectives include community risk and vulnerability, human behaviour during crisis, fire behaviour and eco--‐system management, decision--‐making, communication, and collaboration issues. This paper deals with different perspectives of preparation and prevention in terms of accidents and catastrophes. The...

  11. Workstation-based interactive accident simulator for the MHTGR

    This paper summarizes research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in preliminary determinations of licensability of the US Department of Energy (DOE) reference design of a standard modular high- temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). Accidents transients in MHTGRs are characterized by very long heatup times due to the large core heat capacity. This paper describes the development and use of an interactive simulation tool for performing independent analyses of MHTGR postulated core heatup accidents

  12. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  13. Heath Effects Sequence of Meet Halfa Radiological Accident After Twelve Years

    The accident of Meet-Halfa developed consequent upon the loss of an industrial gamma radiography source. The source was found by a farmer resident of Meet-Halfa who took it to his house occupied by his family. The sequence of events developed over a period of seven weeks from the time the source was found on May 5, 2000, till the day of its retrieval from the house by the national authorities on June 26. The protracted exposure patterns of the family members during the period of source possession are not precisely known, however these exposures resulted in two fatalities, clinical forms of bone marrow depression, and several skin burns of different severities. The recent sequences of the accident is as follows:-The three survived siblings married and get good children. That mean there is no hereditary stochastic effects. The sister died at 2007 with 72 years old with senility and no specific disease. The youngest daughter amputate the left thumb and index fingers at 2001. The elder son amputate the terminal phalanx of the right thumb at 2009. The youngest daughter amputate the right index finger at 2009. The elder son graft the burn at the lower right quadrant of the abdomen for more than 20 times (3 of them were in the Mansheat Al-Bakry Millitary Hospital), but there is residual of burn untill now. Sever abdominal hernia in the elder son due to necroses in the right quadrant abdominal muscles. Grafting for these muscles occur but failed.

  14. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning

    Research highlights: → Lightning impact caused relevant industrial accidents. → Atmospheric storage tanks are the equipment item more susceptible to lightning damage. → Specific damage and release modes may be identified for lightning damage. Specific event trees should be adopted for the identification of post-release final scenarios characterizing lightning-induced major accidents. - Abstract: Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents.

  15. International aspects of nuclear accidents

    The accident at Chernobyl revealed that there were shortcomings and gaps in the existing international mechanisms and brought home to governments the need for stronger measures to provide better protection against the risks of severe accidents. The main thrust of international co-operation with regard to nuclear safety issues is aimed at achieving a uniformly high level of safety in nuclear power plants through continuous exchanges of research findings and feedback from reactor operating experience. The second type of problem posed in the event of an accident resulting in radioactive contamination of several countries relates to the obligation to notify details of the circumstances and nature of the accident speedily so that the countries affected can take appropriate protective measures and, if necessary, organize mutual assistance. Giving the public accurate information is also an important aspect of managing an emergency situation arising from a severe accident. Finally, the confusion resulting from the unwarranted variety of protective measures implemented after the Chernobyl accident has highlighted the need for international harmonization of the principles and scientific criteria applicable to the protection of the public in the event of an accident and for a more consistent approach to emergency plans. The international conventions on third party liability in the nuclear energy sector (Paris/Brussels Conventions and the Vienna Convention) provide for compensation for damage caused by nuclear accidents in accordance with the rules and jurisdiction that they lay down. These provisions impose obligations on the operator responsible for an accident, and the State where the nuclear facility is located, towards the victims of damage caused in another country

  16. Survivability analysis for continuous data protection system based on SMP

    Xiong, Qi; Liu, Hui; Liu, Lin; Wu, Shizhong

    2011-10-01

    As a Novel Disaster surviving technology, Continuous Data Protection(CDP) can restore the protected system to the state of any time point in the past. Until now, no efficient survivability evaluation method for CDP system is developed. Regarding this problem, a semi-markov process(SMP) is applied to survivability of CDP, SMP model for CDP survivability analysis is established, quantitative survivability metric is calculated and some survivability enhancing strategies are proposed accordingly.

  17. Occupational Radiation Protection in Severe Accident Management

    protection job coverage during severe accident response. The IAEA defines a 'Severe Accident' as a beyond design basis accident comprising of accident conditions more severe than a design basis accident, involving significant core degradation. Preparation of the report The expert group met several times to share their experience and develop an interim (preliminary) report by the end of 2013. The content of the report is thus based on current reflections and action plans undertaken by the ISOE participating utilities and regulatory authorities to improve the emergency response plans in the event of a severe nuclear accident from the point of view of occupational radiation protection. A specific attention has been given to the analysis of past nuclear accidents (TMI-2, USA-1979; Chernobyl, USSR-1986 and Fukushima Daiichi, Japan-2011) and to the integration of the occupational radiation protection (ORP) lessons learned from these accidents into the various chapters of the report (See synthesis of these lessons learned in Appendix-1). To finalize the report, an international workshop was organized in 2014 to present and discuss the content of the interim version and share national experiences on best occupational RP management practices and protocols for optimum RP job coverage during severe accident, initial response and recovery efforts (see Appendix-2). The workshop notably allowed to improve and complete the report which has then be submitted to the ISOE Management Board for approval. This report comprises five main chapters. Chapter 2 provides essential information on radiation protection management and organisation. Chapter 3 establishes the goal of radiation protection training and exercises related to severe accident management. Chapter 4 discusses facility characteristics that must be considered when planning actions in response to a severe accident. Chapter 5 introduces an overall approach for the protection of workers / responders with its interpretation and

  18. Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program rapid accident assessment

    Chester, C.V.

    1990-08-01

    This report develops a scheme for the rapid assessment of a release of toxic chemicals resulting from an accident in one of the most chemical weapon demilitarization plants or storage areas. The system uses such inputs as chemical and pressure sensors monitoring the plant and reports of accidents radioed to the Emergency Operations Center by work parties or monitoring personnel. A size of release can be estimated from previous calculations done in the risk analysis, from back calculation from an open-air chemical sensor measurement, or from an estimated percentage of the inventory of agent at the location of the release. Potential consequences of the estimated release are calculated from real-time meteorological data, surrounding population data, and properties of the agent. In addition to the estimated casualties, area coverage and no-death contours vs time would be calculated. Accidents are assigned to one of four categories: community emergencies, which are involve a threat to off-site personnel; on-post emergencies, which involve a threat only to on-site personnel; advisory, which involves a potential for threat to on-site personnel; and chemical occurrence, which can produce an abnormal operating condition for the plant but no immediate threat to on-site personnel. 9 refs., 20 tabs.

  19. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  20. Estimating the frequency of nuclear accidents

    Raju, Suvrat

    2016-01-01

    We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents with some simplifying assumptions regarding their probability distribution is sufficient to rule out the validity of the industry's analyses at a very high confidence level. We show that this conclusion is robust against any reasonable assumed variation of safety standards over time, and across regions. The debate on nuclear liability indicates that the industry has independently arrived at this conclusion. We pay special attention to the Indian situation, where we show that the existing operating experience provides insufficient data to make any reliable claims about the safety of future reactors. We briefly discuss some policy implications.