WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident risk forecasting

  1. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  2. Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting

    李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫

    2003-01-01

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.

  3. Accidents, risks and consequences

    Although the accident at Chernobyl can be considered as the worst accident in the world, it could have been worse. Other far worse situations are considered, such as a nuclear weapon hitting a nuclear reactor. Indeed the accident at Chernobyl is compared to a nuclear weapon. The consequences of Chernobyl in terms of radiation levels are discussed. Although it is believed that a similar accident could not occur in the United Kingdom, that possibility is considered. It is suggested that emergency plans should be made for just such an eventuality. Even if Chernobyl could not happen in the UK, the effects of accidents are international. The way in which nuclear reactor accidents happen is explored, taking the 1957 Windscale fire, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl as examples. Reactor designs and accident scenarios are considered. The different reactor designs are listed. As well as the Chernobyl RBMK design it is suggested that the light water reactors also have undesirable features from the point of view of safety. (U.K.)

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FORECASTING AT VARIOUS TYPICAL URBAN AREAS

    D. Kapsky

    2014-01-01

    The paper provides investigation results pertaining to development of methodology for forecasting traffic accidents using a “conflict zone” method that considers potential danger for two typical urban areas, namely: signaled crossings and bumps that are made in the areas of zebra crossings and it also considers various types and kinds of conflicts. The investigations have made it possible to obtain various indices of threshold sensitivity in respect of  potential risks  and in relation to tra...

  5. The primal application research of figure assimilation theory in the nuclear accident consequence forecast

    The deepgoing research of figure assimilation theory promotes many subjects' rapid development. This article outlooks the application of figure assimilation technique in the nuclear accident consequence forecast. The nuclear accident consequence forecast is a complicated system which needs rapidity and precision, so it is quiet difficult. but after the insertion of figure assimilation, it pushes on one step about the question. (authors)

  6. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  7. Essays on financial forecasting and risk assessment

    Πλαστήρα, Σωτηρία Ν.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims at investigating the performance of empirical risk factors in financial forecasting and their assessment with respect to the associated risk. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay focuses on whether the empirical HML and SMB risk factors, along with the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the U.S. stock returns, compared to the performance of the most widely used financial variables. Our fi...

  8. Modeling and forecasting of accidents at nuclear industrial plants

    The papers on methodology of risk analysis are briefly reviewed. An analysis is performed for relationships between natural and technology-associated accidents. The program of works intended to create a standardization-methodical base of risk analysis at nuclear industrial plants is reported. A number of shortcomings is noted to exist in evaluating nuclear plant safety with the help of commonly used probabilistic criteria of safety. An algorithm of ecological-mathematical monitoring of potentially dangerous objects is suggested. It is pointed out that when developing mathematical models of potentially dangerous object operation not only technological processes, the stochasticity of heat- and mass transfer processes, environmental parameters should be taken into account but social and economical aspects as well

  9. Nuclear Accidents And Associated Environmental Risk

    The paper presents a critical review on the recent view of some safety related issues concerning nuclear accident analysis and its environmental impacts. The philosophy of defence in depth, nuclear accident classification, and quantitative evaluation of environmental risk are among the issues being discussed. The problems of nuclear data harmonization and/or models, building trust and transparence between regulatory guides and public, and alternatives for relocation pathways are also addressed and evaluated

  10. Gas Consumption Forecast and Risk Management

    Pelikán, Emil; Šimůnek, Milan

    Aguascalientes : National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics, 2003. s. 139. [International Symposium on Forecasting /23./. 15.06.2003-18.06.2003, Mérida] Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : risk management * genetic algorithms * time series prediction Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  11. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  12. Severe accident risks from external events

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet.Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators.Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents.It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.

  13. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Potočnik, Primož; Govekar, Edvard; Poredoš, Alojz; Thaler, Marko; Grabec, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledgeabout expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a fore...

  14. How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?

    Peter F. Christoffersen; Francis X. Diebold

    1997-01-01

    It depends. If volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way, then volatility forecasts are useful for risk management; hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature. Volatility forecastability, however, varies with horizon, and different horizons are relevant in different applications. Existing assessments are plagued by the fact that they are joint assessments of volatility forecastability and an assumed model, and the results vary not only with the horizo...

  15. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  16. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  17. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident

  18. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J (eds.) (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)); Agrenius, Lennart (ed.) (Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

  19. Improving aircraft accident forecasting for an integrated plutonium storage facility

    Aircraft accidents pose a quantifiable threat to facilities used to store and process surplus weapon-grade plutonium. The Department of Energy (DOE) recently published its first aircraft accident analysis guidelines: Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities. This document establishes a hierarchy of procedures for estimating the small annual frequency for aircraft accidents that impact Pantex facilities and the even smaller frequency of hazardous material released to the environment. The standard establishes a screening threshold of 10-6 impacts per year; if the initial estimate of impact frequency for a facility is below this level, no further analysis is required. The Pantex Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) calculates the aircraft impact frequency to be above this screening level. The DOE Standard encourages more detailed analyses in such cases. This report presents three refinements, namely, removing retired small military aircraft from the accident rate database, correcting the conversion factor from military accident rates (accidents per 100,000 hours) to the rates used in the DOE model (accidents per flight phase), and adjusting the conditional probability of impact for general aviation to more accurately reflect pilot training and local conditions. This report documents a halving of the predicted frequency of an aircraft impact at Pantex and points toward further reductions

  20. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    2011-01-01

    What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different...... areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions, but...

  1. Severe accidents at nuclear power plants. Their risk assessment and accident management

    This document is to explain the severe accident issues. Severe Accidents are defined as accidents which are far beyond the design basis and result in severe damage of the core. Accidents at Three Mild Island in USA and at Chernobyl in former Soviet Union are examples of severe accidents. The causes and progressions of the accidents as well as the actions taken are described. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a method to estimate the risk of severe accidents at nuclear reactors. The methodology for PSA is briefly described and current status on its application to safety related issues is introduced. The acceptability of the risks which inherently accompany every technology is then discussed. Finally, provision of accident management in Japan is introduced, including the description of accident management measures proposed for BWRs and PWRs. (author)

  2. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. PMID:23928504

  3. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  4. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  5. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  6. Water Flow Forecasting and River Simulation for Flood Risk Analysis

    Merkurjeva, G

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models are analysed. An advanced river flood forecasting and modelling approach developed within the ongoing project INFROM is described. It provides an integrated procedure for river flow forecasting and simulation advanced by integration of different models for improving predictions of th...

  7. APRI 4 - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    The following conclusions are drawn from the APRI-4 project: Participation in NRC's CSARP (Cooperative Severe Accident Research Programme) has increased the knowledge of severe accidents through exchange of research results and simulation codes. The PHEBUS experiment in Cadarache performed by IPSN (Inst. de Protection de Securite Nucleaire) has shown that there are important gaps in our knowledge of severe accidents, esp. concerning reactor chemistry. It is of importance that the simulation programs are validated against the results from PHEBUS. The broad research program operated at the dept. of Nuclear Power Safety at the Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm produces new knowledge and it is important the the nuclear utilities take advantage of this information. It seems possible to cool a melted reactor core, if there is plenty of water available when the melt reaches the bottom of the vessel. Experiments show that the concentration of gaseous iodine decreases rapidly if metal surfaces of copper, zinc or aluminium are present. The understanding of steam explosions has increased considerably, and there is now a consensus that steam explosions is no threat to the containment. The probability for ex-vessel steam explosions is small, but the risk that the containment is damaged can not be generally excluded and must be evaluated for each plant. The most probable event after a melt-through of a Nordic BWR is that the debris on the containment bottom is coolable. Recommendations for the follow-up of APRI: Continue the participation in international projects like CSARP, PHEBUS, MCCI, MASCA etc.; Continue cooperation with Royal Inst. of Technology and Chalmers University of Technology in the subject of severe reactor accidents in order to achieve results valuable for the Swedish plants and to uphold the competence in Sweden; Continue the research on the coolability of the melt in the reactor tank and in the containment; Continue the study on the debris chemistry in the

  8. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values-at-Risk are c......The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values...

  9. Forecasting Value at Risk in Emerging Arab Stock Markets

    C. Guermat; K. Hadri; C. C. Kucukozmen

    2003-01-01

    The economic and political instability of most of the Arab countries may lead to the assumption that Arab stock markets are riskier and less predictable than stock markets in developed countries. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. In this paper extreme value theory with volatility updating is used to forecast Value at Risk in three emerging Arab stock markets and the US stock market. Several forecast accuracy crit...

  10. Economic risks of nuclear power reactor accidents

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which occur during US LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models have been developed for potential use by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost/benefit analyses for decision-making purposes. The new onsite cost models estimate societal losses from power production cost increases, plant capital losses, plant decontamination costs, and plant repair costs which may be incurred after LWR operational events. Early decommissioning costs, plant worker health impact costs, electric utility business costs, nuclear power industry costs, and litigation costs are also addressed. The newly developed offsite economic consequence models estimate The costs of post-accident population protective measures and public health impacts. The costs of population evacuation and temporary relocation, agricultural product disposal, land and property decontamination, and land interdiction are included in the economic models for population protective measures. Costs of health impacts and medical care costs are also included in the models

  11. On the application of near accident data to risk analysis of major accidents

    Major accidents are low frequency high consequence events which are not well supported by conventional statistical methods due to data scarcity. In the absence or shortage of major accident direct data, the use of partially related data of near accidentsaccident precursor data – has drawn much attention. In the present work, a methodology has been proposed based on hierarchical Bayesian analysis and accident precursor data to risk analysis of major accidents. While hierarchical Bayesian analysis facilitates incorporation of generic data into the analysis, the dependency and interaction between accident and near accident data can be encoded via a multinomial likelihood function. We applied the proposed methodology to risk analysis of offshore blowouts and demonstrated its outperformance compared to conventional approaches. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk analysis is applied to model major accidents. • Two-stage Bayesian updating is used to generate informative distributions. • Accident precursor data are used to develop likelihood function. • A multinomial likelihood function is introduced to model dependencies among data

  12. Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThe Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk esti

  13. Avalanche risk in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data

    F. Techel

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In Switzerland, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occurs during recreational activities. Risk analysis studies mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk, i.e. how many and where people are recreating. We compared the accident data (backcountry touring with reports from two social media mountaineering networks – bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. On these websites, users reported more than 15 000 backcountry tours during the five winters 2009/2010 to 2013/2014. We noted similar patterns in avalanche accident data and user data like demographics of recreationists, distribution of the day of the week (weekday vs. weekend or weather conditions (fine vs. poor weather. However, we also found differences such as the avalanche danger conditions on days with activities and accidents, but also the geographic distribution. While backcountry activities are concentrated in proximity to the main population centres in the West and North of the Swiss Alps, a large proportion of the severe avalanche accidents occurred in the inner-alpine, more continental regions with frequently unfavorably snowpack structure. This suggests that even greater emphasis should be put on the type of avalanche problem in avalanche education and avalanche forecasting to increase the safety of backcountry recreationists.

  14. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    Liu, Yan-qun; Zeng, Xiao-hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  15. The Effect of Litigation Risk on Management Earnings Forecasts

    Zhiyan Cao; Ganapathi Narayanamoorthy

    2005-01-01

    We examine the effect of litigation risk on managers' decision to issue earnings forecasts. We use a new ex ante measure of litigation risk, namely, the Directors and Officers liability insurance premium. This choice bypasses significant problems associated with the estimation of ex ante litigation risk in prior studies. By using this measure of litigation risk, our results are more intuitively appealing. We find that when faced with ex ante litigation risk, managers with bad news are more li...

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. Much of the important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Structural Response Panel

  18. Accident risks in the energy sector

    This article discusses the accident rate of natural gas installations, which are quoted by the author to be lowest of all fossil fuels. The statistics on accidents and their consequences are looked at for the whole natural gas supply chain. The results of a study commissioned by the Swiss Gas and Water Professionals Association (SVGW) are presented and discussed. Statistics for the European Union and Eastern Europe are looked at and analysed. The study's methodological basis is described and the criteria used for the definition of an accident considered to be 'serious' are listed. The results of comparisons made of various energy chains are presented and discussed. Graphics are presented of frequency of occurrence and seriousness of damage for various forms of energy as well as for maximum possible consequences of accidents. Specific analyses for the natural gas chain are presented

  19. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  20. Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; McAleer, Michael; Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThe Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the est...

  1. A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models

    Lisiane Priscila Roldão Selau; José Luis Duarte Ribeiro

    2011-01-01

    Due to the recent growth in the consumer credit market and the consequent increase in default indices, companies are seeking to improve their credit analysis by incorporating objective procedures. Multivariate techniques have been used as an alternative to construct quantitative models for credit forecast. These techniques are based on consumer profile data and allow the identification of standards concerning default behavior. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting credit risk by u...

  2. Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

    Dias, Ana Sofia Fidalgo

    2012-01-01

    Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvemen...

  3. Risk analysis considering accident in nuclear reactors and oil refineries

    Risk analysis is an important tool to help decision-making, especially related to energy choices and their environmental consequences. This paper sets out to analyze the risk associated with deploying and operating a nuclear installation for later comparison with the risk of other energy sources such as oil. We have conducted a risk analysis based on the number of reactors-year and the number of worldwide accidents that have occurred in nuclear power plants. The same was done based on the number of refineries-year and the number of accidents that have occurred worldwide in oil refineries. Our results showed that the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants is smaller than the risk in oil production. We believe the proposed analysis might affect the decision-making process in the environmental area and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. (author)

  4. Smoothing Strategies Combined with ARIMA and Neural Networks to Improve the Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

    Lida Barba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD. In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0 : 26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1 : 12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15 : 51%.

  5. Smoothing strategies combined with ARIMA and neural networks to improve the forecasting of traffic accidents.

    Barba, Lida; Rodríguez, Nibaldo; Montt, Cecilia

    2014-01-01

    Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0:26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1:12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15:51%. PMID:25243200

  6. Psychic pathology of anthropogenic accidents at risk enterprises

    The literary data on the clinic and pathogenesis distinctions of traumatic and posttraumatic stress following the accidents are analyzed. The inner contradictory character of the Chernobyl NPP operators reaction to psychodraumatic situation is revealed. A number of concepts liable to discussion is given: inner contradiction of the reactions to traumatic stress on account of accidents at risk cuterprises puts forward the way for psychology evolution in process, besides, posttraumatic stress may be considered as one of the stages of such evolution; the misuse of spirits by the persons with traumatic stress appeared on account of accidents at risk enterprises puts forward the way for the subsequent evolution towards psychic degeneration; the prevailing effect of the reality denial among the personnel of the risk enterprises may form a muthcreative attitude to technical sphere and play a certain role in the emergence of anthropogenic accidents at these enterprises. 22 refs

  7. The nuclear accident risk: a territorial approach

    How many people live in the vicinity of French nuclear power stations? Recent events - notably in Japan, but also in France - highlight the urgent need to be able to predict the possible effects of a nuclear accident on surrounding territories. Here, Ambroise Pascal identifies two key criteria for such an estimation: residential density and land use. (author)

  8. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2015-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level of......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR) are...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the...

  9. Forecasting risk of bankruptcy for machine-building plants

    Telipenko, E.; Zakharova, A.; Sopova, Svetlana

    2015-09-01

    The paper presents an overview of well-known bankruptcy risk forecasting models, elaborated as by Russian so by foreign authors, on the basis of the data about financial and business activities of the biggest machine-building Russian plants. The authors substantiate and confirm appropriateness of a fuzzy set model to the problem of bankruptcy risk forecasting. This model is worked out on the basis of 10 most important factors, which have the greatest influence on sales proceeds as the main financial source for a production plant.

  10. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China.

  11. Effects of the Chernobyl accident on public perceptions of nuclear plant accident risks

    Assessments of public perceptions of the characteristics of a nuclear power plant accident and affective responses to its likelihood were conducted 5 months before and 1 month after the Chernobyl accident. Analyses of data from 69 residents of southwestern Washington showed significant test-retest correlations for only 10 of 18 variables--accident likelihood, three measures of impact characteristics, three measures of affective reactions, and hazard knowledge by governmental sources. Of these variables, only two had significant changes in mean ratings; frequency of thought and frequency of discussion about a nearby nuclear power plant both increased. While there were significant changes only for two personal consequences (expectations of cancer and genetic effects), both of these decreased. The results of this study indicate that more attention should be given to assessing the stability of risk perceptions over time. Moreover, the data demonstrate that experience with a major accident can actually decrease rather than increase perceptions of threat

  12. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Lelieveld, J.; KUNKEL, D.; M. G. Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous ...

  13. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed on an integrated assessment of probabilistic cancer mortality risks due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants. For each of the European nuclear power plants the prob...

  14. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Appendices

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E which include the following topics respectively: accident progression event tree; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information. 6 figs., 6 tabs

  16. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. PMID:21612010

  17. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector

    This paper addresses one of the major limitations of the current comparative studies of environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues. The assessments concern full energy chains associated with fossil sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. A comprehensive severe accidents database has been established. Thanks to the variety of information sources used, it exhibits in comparison with other corresponding databases a far more extensive coverage of the energy-related accidents. For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic approach has been employed and extended to cover the economic consequences of power reactor accidents. Results of comparisons between the various energy chains are shown and discussed along with a number of current issues in comparative assessment of severe accidents. As opposed to the previous studies, the aim of the present work has been, to cover whenever possible, a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 18 refs

  18. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry,the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry.They are respectively marketing risks,natural risks,information risks and production risks.In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry,countermeasures are proposed in the research.The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry.The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry,including four aspects.They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry;constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry;establishing information analysis and decision-making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems.The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry.The fourth is to further perfect the risk-defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan.The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence.The sixth is to accelerate the development of intermediate agents to improve the organization degrees.And the last one is to put emphasis on the tech-training courses on banana planting and production to improve the technical quality of banana industry.

  19. On the nature of risk and accidents

    By consensus, 'errors of omission' and 'errors of commission' have their origin in the human rather than in the technological parts of the system. It has therefore been customary to base explanations on the available psychological 'error models', which mostly have been of the human information processing and internal 'error mechanisms' type. Yet the fact that an 'error of commission' necessarily involves a human action does not mean that the explanation, hence the modelling, must be confined to human functions - cognitive or otherwise. On the contrary, the experience from accident analyses as well as state-of-the-art HRA approaches all emphasize that action failures reflect the impact of the working conditions more than any specific mechanism'. This corresponds to a change in accident models from sequential, over epidemiological, to systemic. According to the latter, action failures - or action error modes - should be seen as the irregular, but not totally random, outcome of the system's performance variability rather than as specific effects of specific causes. This change in perspective have significant consequences for the ways in which action error modes are modelled and classified, and therefore also for the methods that can be used for prediction. (author)

  20. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    J. Lelieveld

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  1. A method for risk analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    A method is developed for deriving a set of equations relating the public risk in potential nuclear reactor accidents to the basic variables, such as population distributions and radioactive releases, which determine the consequences of the accidents. The equations can be used to determine the risk for different values of the basic variables without the need of complex computer programs and can be used to determine the variable values which are needed to satisfy various risk criteria. The methodology development in the study involves fitting risk distribution of frequency versus consequence to parametric distribution and then relating the distribution parameters to the basic variable of interest using regression techniques. The Weibull distribution was found to be appropriate for the early fatalities distributions for hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, dam failures and nuclear reactor accidents. A set of equations is then derived which relate the population distribution and the parameters of the Weibull distribution for early fatalities from PWR accidents. The derived equations are straightforward and useful in analyses of population and other effects (eg radioactive release) on risk

  2. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  3. Method for risk analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    A method is developed for deriving a set of equations relating the public risk in potential nuclear reactor accidents to the basic variables, such as population distributions and radioactive releases, which determine the consequences of the accidents. The equations can be used to determine the risk for different values of the basic variables without the need of complex computer programs and can be used to determine the variable values which are needed to satisfy various risk criteria. The methodology developed in this study consists of two steps. The first step involves fitting the risk distributions of frequency versus consequence to parametric distributions which contain a small number of parameters. The second step involves deriving the equations which relate the distribution parameters to the basic variables of interest. Regression techniques are used for this second step. The methodology is demonstrated for examples based on the results of the Reactor Safety Study. The calculated distributions of early fatalities in nuclear reactor accidents and the historical records of fatalities in hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and dam failures are examined to determine an appropriate family of parametric distributions. From these examinations, the Weibull distribution is found to be appropriate for all of the examined events. A set of equations is then derived which relate the population distribution and the parameters of the Weibull distributions for early fatalities from PWR accidents. Regression equations relating the parameters to the characteristics of radioactive releases are also derived

  4. A Method for Forecasting Credit Risk of Global Device Purchasing

    2002-01-01

    With the development of the Internet and E-commerce, enterprises can achieve global device purchasing with a good cost performance. But the credit risk is the key factor in selecting a device provider. Credit risk involves many qualitative and quantitative factors. We construct a multi-agent credit rating model system based on CSCW, which organically combines the people's aptitude and the capability of machines. Enterprises can use this credit rating system for forecasting and defeating the credit risk of global device purchasing.

  5. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

  6. Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

    Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO2-emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

  7. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  8. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  9. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    J. Lelieveld

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  10. CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk

    Huang, Dashan [Olin School of Business, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130 (United States); Yu, Baimin [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190 (China); Fabozzi, Frank J. [School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520 (United States); Fukushima, Masao [Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics, Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8501 (Japan)

    2009-07-15

    As a benchmark for measuring market risk, value-at-risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. This paper employs a new VaR approach due to Engle and Manganelli [Engle, R.F., Manganelli, S., 2004. CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22, 367-381] to forecasting oil price risk. In doing so, we provide two original contributions by introducing a new exponentially weighted moving average CAViaR model and developing a mixed data regression model for multi-period VaR prediction. (author)

  11. CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk

    As a benchmark for measuring market risk, value-at-risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. This paper employs a new VaR approach due to Engle and Manganelli [Engle, R.F., Manganelli, S., 2004. CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22, 367-381] to forecasting oil price risk. In doing so, we provide two original contributions by introducing a new exponentially weighted moving average CAViaR model and developing a mixed data regression model for multi-period VaR prediction. (author)

  12. International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractA risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median

  13. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  14. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  15. A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models

    Lisiane Priscila Roldão Selau

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the recent growth in the consumer credit market and the consequent increase in default indices, companies are seeking to improve their credit analysis by incorporating objective procedures. Multivariate techniques have been used as an alternative to construct quantitative models for credit forecast. These techniques are based on consumer profile data and allow the identification of standards concerning default behavior. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting credit risk by using three multivariate techniques: discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks. The proposed method (deemed the CRF Model consists of six steps and is illustrated by means of a real application. An important contribution of this paper is the organization of the methodological procedures and the discussion of the decisions that should be made during the application of the model. The feasibility of the approach proposed was tested in a program for granting credit offered by a network of pharmacies. The use of the models for forecasting credit risk greatly reduces the subjectivity of the analysis, by establishing a standardized procedure that speeds up and qualifies credit analysis

  16. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    Lelieveld, J.; KUNKEL, D.; M. G. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of ma...

  17. The management of risk to society from potential accidents

    The main report of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) Working Group on Risks to Society from Potential Major Accidents is presented. It is the outcome of a study by AEA Technology, the trading name of the UKAEA, in support of its own decision-making on risk management of the nuclear plants and laboratories it controls. The principles underlying decisions on social risk are of much broader applicability, however. The report is prefaced by an Executive Summary which is intended to be a stand-alone summary of the results of the study. The topics covered include: an examination of the nature of risk; the distinction to be drawn between individual and societal risk; existing risks; risk estimation; goals and targets as defined in terms of acceptance, tolerability and comparison between risks; regulations relating to risk targets; risk management decisions in theory and practice; societal risk management. A final chapter brings together the conclusions and recommendations from the preceding nine with respect to risk estimation, evaluation, management and overall approach. Two appendices deal with cost benefit analysis and provide a glossary and acronyms. (UK)

  18. Simplified risk assessment based on accident categories at Tokai Reprocessing Plant

    We studied the application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) to nuclear fuel cycle facilities in Japan because PSA is expected to be useful for improving safety management and regulations. We decided to conduct a risk assessment by taking into account the probability of accident events at Tokai Reprocessing Plant (TRP). First, we selected possible accident events at TRP by applying the Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) and analyzing previous accidents that occurred in reprocessing plants around the world. Then, we conducted a simplified risk assessment of each of the selected individual accident events and compared the assessment results for four accident categories (fire, explosion, criticality, and other accident events in which large amounts of radioactive materials are released). In the future, we plan to conduct a detailed risk assessment of events with the highest risk in each accident category. In this report, we describe the comparative results of simplified risk assessment for each accident category. (author)

  19. Nuclear power: accident probabilities, risks, and benefits. A bibliography

    This report is a selected listing of 396 documents pertaining to nuclear accident probability and nuclear risk. Because of the attention focused on these concepts by the recent (August 1974) publication of the draft of WASH-1400, ''Reactor Safety Study,'' it is intended that this bibliography make conveniently available the existence of relevant literature on these concepts. Such an awareness will enhance an understanding of probability and risk as applied to nuclear power plants and is essential to their further development and/or application. This bibliography includes first a listing of the selected documents with abstracts and keywords, followed by three indexes: (1) keyword, (2) author, and (3) permuted title

  20. Forecasting individual breast cancer risk using plasma metabolomics and biocontours

    Bro, Rasmus; Kamstrup-Nielsen, Maja Hermann; Engelsen, Søren Balling;

    2015-01-01

    Breast cancer is a major cause of death for women. To improve treatment, current oncology research focuses on discovering and validating new biomarkers for early detection of cancer; so far with limited success. Metabolic profiling of plasma samples and auxiliary lifestyle information was combined...... by chemometric data fusion. It was possible to create a biocontour, which we define as a complex pattern of relevant biological and phenotypic information. While single markers or known risk factors have close to no predictive value, the developed biocontour provides a forecast which, several years before...

  1. Multicomponent risk inherent to nuclear or radiation accidents

    A nuclear or radiation emergency response planning is based on expected avertable doses for a short (4 hours, 2 days, 1 week) and a long (50 or 70 years) periods of time. On calculating the doses one should take into account not only the sources of ionizing radiation with their foreseen characteristics, e.g. a half-life, but also the possibility of their probabilistic transformations. It can be illustrated by the chronicle of Chernobyl accident, where for nine days it was impossible to envisage with reliability the quantities of released radionuclides due to many uncontrolled factors related to the scope and character of the zone wreckage. Any other developments of the accident, such as destruction of the under reactor support plate, sinking of the melted zone into a highly radioactive water down at the reactor cavity or changing of the wind could have resulted in a substantial contamination of 3 mln. Kiev and other densely populated area of Ukraine. Another factor to be taken into account in the emergency response is a way of an actual risk perception by the population. The article suggests an approach to take into account the time-dependent secondary sources of exposure and the disparity in accepting the hazard of real risk of an accident by the trained workers and population. (author)

  2. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants: Appendices A, B, and C

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two or the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide release and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. Volume 2 of this report contains three appendices, providing greater detail on the methods used, an example risk calculation, and more detailed discussion of particular technical issues found important in the risk studies

  3. Defining accident sequences for conducting probabilistic risk assessments

    A major portion of any PRA activity is devoted to the identification of potential accident sequences which could lead to radiological releases. A systematic application of acceptable methods and techniques is desirable. Event tree and fault tree analysis form the basis for plant/system modeling. Consensus approaches for acquisition of information, model development, assumptions, constraints, inclusion of common cause events, interrelationships of event trees and fault trees, accuracy, completeness and manner of documentation are presented. Alternative methods which may be used or directed toward a specialized purpose are also of interest. Particular emphasis is placed on defining in practical terms the specific tasks of accident sequence definition and what is required, why it is necessary and how each task relates to the overall risk assessment process

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  6. Risk perception and safety targets for major accidents

    The Safety and Reliability Directorate of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority is currently (1987) conducting a re-examination of the risk to society arising from major accidents, and in particular major accidents that could potentially originate from the nuclear power industry. As part of this work, the criteria of safety have been reviewed and the definition of safety goals and safety targets to be met in different circumstances have been examined. Safety goals and targets must be clear to the design and operating side of the industry and to the regulatory authorities; however, they must also be understood by and broadly acceptable to decision makers and to the concerned public. The S.R.D. therefore invited the Environmental Risk Assessment Unit in the University of East Anglia to organise this Seminnar, to include a number of people in academic life who have studied different aspects of the perception of risks and of the factors that seem to argue for or against the acceptability of risks. The papers submitted to the Seminar by six invited speakers are printed in full; they have been slightly amended by the authors in the light of the discussion. A short account of the main points that emerged during the discussions is included at the end of the Report. (author)

  7. Forecast Skill and Farmers' Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Paz, J.; Breuer, N.E.; Broad, K.; Ingram, K.T.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2010-01-01

    During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame se

  8. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  9. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  10. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  11. Risk assessment of aircraft accidents anywhere near an airport

    This work analyzes the more suitable areas to build new facilities, taking into account the conditions imposed by an airport located nearby. Initially, it describes the major characteristics of the airport. Then, the restrictions imposed to ensure the normal operation of the aircraft are analyzed. Following, there is a summary of the evolution of studies of aircraft accidents at nuclear facilities. In the second part, three models of aircraft crash probabilities are presented, all of them developed in the U.S.A, each with an increasing level of complexity in modeling the likelihood of accidents. The first model is the 'STD-3014' Department of Energy (DOE), the second is the 'ACRAM'(Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology) prepared by the 'Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory'(LLNL) and finally the more advanced 'ACRP-3', produced by the 'Transportation Research Board'. The results obtained with the three models establish that the risks imposed on the airport vicinity, remain low due to the improvement and innovation in the aircraft's safety, reducing the risk margin for the location of new nuclear facilities near an airport. (author)

  12. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United State. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two of the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide releases and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. This report, Volume 3, contains two appendices. Appendix D summarizes comments received, and staff responses, on the first (February 1987) draft of NUREG-1150. Appendix E provides a similar summary of comments and responses, but for the second (June 1989) version of the report

  13. Forecast performance of implied volatility and the impact of the volatility risk premium

    Ralf Becker; Adam Clements; Christopher Coleman-Fenn

    2009-01-01

    Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performance of econometric models based on time-series data and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved. Implied volatilities are risk-neutral forecasts of spot volatility, whereas time-series models are estimated on risk-adjusted or real world data of the underlying. Recent...

  14. Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    Casarin, Roberto; Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; McAleer, Michael; Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous ...

  15. Risk Factors and Road Traffic Accidents in Tanzania: A Case Study of Kibaha District

    Komba, Deus Damian

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses the risk factors which are associated to the cause of road traffic accidents in Kibaha district in Tanzania; the study describes the composition of motor related injuries including non motorized casualties in Kibaha district. The thesis assesses different road safety measures taken by the local authorities to prevent accidents in Kibaha district.In identifying risk factor associated to the cause of road traffic accidents, four theoretical frameworks: System theory, risk ...

  16. Risk Factors and Road Traffic Accidents in Tanzania : A Case Study of Kibaha District

    Komba, Deus Damian

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses the risk factors which are associated to the cause of road traffic accidents in Kibaha district in Tanzania; the study describes the composition of motor related injuries including non motorized casualties in Kibaha district. The thesis assesses different road safety measures taken by the local authorities to prevent accidents in Kibaha district. In identifying risk factor associated to the cause of road traffic accidents, four theoretical frameworks: System theory, risk...

  17. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system

    The computerized system NARIS (Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analyses of the distribution of the health effects. The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  18. A NEW HAZARD EVALUATION PROCEDURE FOR PREDICTING RISK FACTORS OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS

    Hüseyin CEYLAN

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available With annual average of 73,937 occupational accidents and 1,152 deaths, Turkey still faces an important problem. The country exercises one of the lowest performances in job safety among the European Union countries. Developments in technology increased the importance of safety management in industry. These improvements also resulted in a requirement of more investment and assignment on human in work systems. This situation increases the importance of forecasting the possible accidents that workers can face and preventing the accidents by taking necessary precautions. In this study a prognostic model has been developed to forecast the occupational accidents in coming periods at the departments of the facilities in hazardous work systems. The validity of the proposed model has been proved by implementing it into practice in hazardous work systems in the manufacturing industry.

  19. Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    R. Casarin (Roberto); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIt is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or

  20. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  1. Expert forecast on emerging biological risks related to occupational safety and health

    Brun, Emmanuelle

    2007-01-01

    This report contains a forecast of emerging biological risks related to occupational safety and health (OSH) based on an expert survey and a literature review. The Agency also worked on forecasts and literature reviews on physical, chemical, and psychosocial risks in order to paint as full a picture as possible of the potential emerging risks in the world of work. These results are linked to other Risk Observatory work and aims to examine OSH trends in Europe and to anticipa...

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risk in the Pickering a risk assessment

    The nature of the design of commercial power plants is such that significant impacts on public health can only occur if a number of barriers fail. Rigorous design and licensing requirements ensure that the more likely accidents do not fail all these barriers and their contribution to risk is likely to be small. The task of estimating accident risk must, therefore, focus more towards those less likely but potentially more serious combinations of failures that are characterized by the following: a) a large release of fission products into the containment atmosphere, b) a breach in the containment envelope, and c) the existence of a driving force to expel the containment atmosphere to the outside environment. The likelihood of such conditions existing simultaneously during the course of an accident is expected to be small, such that experience and data regarding the behaviour of plant systems under such conditions is sparse or non-existent. The challenge of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is to examine the potential for severe accidents using approaches that are sufficiently detailed and realistic to provide valid information regarding plant risk and susceptibilities, while simple enough to keep the analysis manageable. This paper outlines the key features of the Pickering A Risk Assessment (PARA) (1) and the manner in which it addresses these issues, and provides some insights into the results and conclusions drawn from the study. (author)

  3. The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

    This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts. (author)

  4. How can food risks be prevented after a nuclear accident?

    In exercises, risk prevention measures relating to contaminated foods generally involve areas where the consumption and sale of foods are prohibited if exceed the European Council food intervention levels (CFILs) defined following the Chernobyl accident. However, CFILs do not offer systematic protection for population living in the immediate vicinity of an accident, because this standards only consider those living farther and are only likely to be contaminated by eating contaminated foods, which may arrive in limited quantities from the contaminated area byway of international trade. The CODIRPA 'Life in contaminated rural areas' working group has therefore put forward some proposed guidelines to delimit two separate areas: i) a 'food prohibition area', where a comprehensive and systematic ban would be temporarily placed on the consumption and marketing of locally produced foods; ii) a larger 'monitoring area', where, following a temporary ban, foodstuffs would be marketed in accordance with European or international standards. Consumption of locally produced foods would be authorised there, subject to 'good food hygiene' recommendations. Decision criteria and areas delimitation are here submitted for the new zoning system. (author)

  5. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    Jan Christian Kaiser

    2012-01-01

    Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 4; 62) severe accidents am...

  6. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  7. Willingness-to-pay for decreased risk from nuclear plant accidents. Working Paper No. 43

    The study examines one factor encompassed in the evaluation of the nuclear energy system: the collective value people assign to risk avoidance. The specific risks dealt with were the risks of death or injury due to nuclear plant accidents. This value figure was arrived at by having the study participants assign monetary values to changes in the probabilities of plant accidents. No attempt was made to establish ''real'' accident probability rates, rather, the issue was treated hypothetically. The method by which this value figure was approached was through a study examining willingness-to-pay for decreased risk, and conversely, willingness-to-be-compensated to permit risk increase

  8. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  9. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  10. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  11. Assessment of radiation risk as a part of ecological risk in the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

    Full text: The purpose of the work: foundation for principles of planning protection measures, that provide safety for population activity on the territories, contaminated with radio-nuclides, by analysing radio-chemical situation, using risk assessment methods. Problems set in the work: -) Analyses of radiation risk in the structure of ecological risk in the territory of the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident; -) Investigation of chemical risk level, connected with air pollution from stationary objects exhausts, for the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides; -) Modelling of the combined impact of ionising radiation and chemical carcinogen for the possible ecological risk assessment; -) Involving modern geo informational systems in the radio-ecological risk assessment process; -) Foundation for the assessment methodology of the complex influence of negative factors in the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides. The problems are solved by carrying out specific experiments and by analysing published and own data on radioactive and chemical contamination of some regions of Belarus. Major findings: Radiation input to the really registered carcinogens is estimated to app. 10 %. In case of multiple factors influence of different contaminators of industrial and natural origin (i.e. radiation is not the only negative factor), ignorance of non-radiation origin factors may seriously distort estimation of radiation risk, when it is related to the registered effects. Radiation should be in no way treated as the major factor of real ecological risk in Belarus. Method for comparative analysis of territories' ecological risk level is developed and implemented. A GIS segment, that includes subsystem of the real and forecasted radio-ecological mapping, is created. The authors grounded the experimental model for study the complex influence of radioactive and non-radioactive (chemical carcinogen) factors. Revealed dependencies 'dose

  12. Risks of accidents with nuclear power plants in Europe: A European risk map of nuclear accidents by means of the Eurisk study

    The title method requires an identification of sources and releases, dispersion and deposition calculations, an exposure assessment method and an integrated risk assessment. The starting point of the risk evaluation is the estimation of accident probabilities and source terms for each of the 217 nuclear power reactors in Europe, which were included in the present evaluation. Eurisk aims at estimating the mortality risks of possible nuclear power plant accidents and is part of the Third National Environmental Outline of RIVM. The method is briefly discussed as well as the most important results of this risk evaluation. 7 figs., 5 refs

  13. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  14. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2016-01-01

    overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy...

  15. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km2. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs

  16. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research; Rumyantseva, G.M.; Martyvshov, A.N. [The Serbsky Research Institute, Moscow, (Russian Federation)

    1993-10-01

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km{sup 2}. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs.

  17. A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

    Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  18. Have US Legislatures Fully Considered Causal Factors in Assigning Liability for Inherent Risk Accidents?

    Terence J. Centner

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The public’s dissatisfaction with American tort rules has led US state legislatures to enact more than 120 statutes for assigning liability for accident losses. Many of these statutes address the liability of accidents involving inherent risks of activities where neither the activity provider nor injured participant was negligent. Due to business complaints about high insurance costs, legislatures decided that participants ought to bear the costs arising from inherent risk accidents. Yet, causal factors associated with sport activities may support an alternative liability rule to maximize social welfare. Because inherent risk statutes lead to increased activity levels, they are accompanied by increased accident costs. Factors causing incorrect liability results may be compared to offer a recommendation for a liability regime for inherent risk accidents.

  19. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  20. Guidelines for Exposure Assessment in Health Risk Studies Following a Nuclear Reactor Accident

    Bouville, André; Linet, Martha S.; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Simon, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Worldwide concerns regarding health effects after the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents indicate a clear need to identify short- and long-term health impacts that might result from accidents in the future. Fundamental to addressing this problem are reliable and accurate radiation dose estimates for the affected populations. The available guidance for activities following nuclear accidents is limited with regard to strategies for dose assessment in health risk s...

  1. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-01-01

    The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout l...

  2. Radiation risk in Republics Belarus after Chernobyl accident

    under observation by the year 2004. The obtained results conform to the other authors' conclusions (Malko M.V., 2001, 2003). In the framework of the ICRP model it's shown that a maximum possible influence of the radiation contamination factor can't be a source of the actually registered carcinogenic risk. In this connection, an analysis of the ecological hazard non-radiation components is of importance. By now, the scientific community has achieved the understanding of the fact that a chemical pollution risk can be compared with a risk of the radiation contamination even in the regions mostly suffered from the accident at the Chernobyl atomic power station. Furthermore, under a combined influence of a complex of factors, there is a risk of a nonlinear enhancement of the adverse effects. In this connection, an urgent problem appeared consisting of the new approach elaboration on the evaluation of the technogenic environment contamination, under which an influence of different adverse factors would be expressed in comparable values, suitable for their comparative analysis. This problem solving refers first of all to the decision making optimization at the safety arrangements planning on the contaminated territories. (author)

  3. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed

  4. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed o

  5. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: christine.hendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Lowry, Gregory V., E-mail: glowry@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Unrine, Jason M., E-mail: jason.unrine@uky.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Agricultural Science Center, Lexington, KY 40546 (United States); Wiesner, Mark R., E-mail: wiesner@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall PO Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  6. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  7. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  8. [Risk factors for accidents during sports while serving in German armed forces].

    Gundlach, N; Sammito, S; Böckelmann, I

    2012-03-01

    In the German Armed Forces sports activities should bring the benefits of good health and trained fitness which are the hallmarks of sportsmen. In order to achieve this aim it is important to avoid accidents which negate the benefit of sports. Until today there appear to be no studies in existence which demonstrate the risk factors of sports activities undertaken while in military service. Equivalent studies on civilian sport activities are scarcely comparable. To find out risk factors for accidents with any period of recovery we followed sports accidents while on duty in a German barracks with 4,300 soldiers over a two-year period. Additionally we asked about the time needed for recovery from each accident, parameters of lifestyle, the body mass index and the possibility of a nightshift before each accident. We examined a minimum of 410 accidents. We found associations between the accidents studied and particular risk factors, including doing sports more than two times a week, being active in a fitness or sports club, having the accident together with another sportsman and doing a nightshift before the day of the accident. Bad ground conditions contributed to a large number of accidents. A body mass index of 25 and higher had a significantly prolonged time for recovery. To avoid accidents, sport and ground conditions should be adapted to each other. In addition, overweight people are not only compromised for cardiovascular and neurological diseases but also have a higher risk of needing a prolonged time for recovery, thus it is important that overweight should be avoided and not only just be treated. PMID:22422284

  9. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks.

  10. A validation study of the intertran model for assessing risks of transportation accidents: Road transport of uranium hexafluoride

    The INTERTRAN code was developed by the IAEA in order to provide member states with a simple and rapide method of assessing the risk involved in the transportation of radioactive materials and one which was applicable on a worldwide scale. Before being used, this code must be validated and the CEA thus compared the results obtained with the conventional risk assessment methods used by the CEPN with those derived from INTERTRAN. This paper gives the results of the studies made on the subject of road transportation of uranium hexafluoride in France. The conventional accident risk assessment method gave a figure of 8.84 x 10-4 deaths/year, whereas INTERTRAN announces 1.78 x 10-2. To these figures should be added 3.38 x 10-2 deaths/year, which is the intrinsic road risk, whatever the goods carried. In relation to conventional estimates, the INTERTRAN forecasts are five times lower for the U risk and twenty times higher for the HF risk. The chemical risk is indeed the most prevalent one in this case. Other comparisons are needed to validate this code

  11. Accident risk and factors regarding non-motorised road users

    Agerholm, Niels; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2015-01-01

    is put into the reduction of the vast majority of the accidents, NMRU single accidents, which are about 90% of all injured NMRUs. There are no efficient tools available to reduce this number. A significantly better designed, maintained, and illuminated road network would most likely help. However......, that is expensive and not possible for most road authorities. Despite this, the challenges with NMRUs in single accidents need more attention, if road safety is to be improved. The situation in Denmark is more than likely the case in many other countries as well; although the documentation is scarce....

  12. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Sojda, Richard S.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very "sharp"). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest "sharpening" can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  13. A comparative analysis of accident risks in fossil, hydro, and nuclear energy chains

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S. [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland)

    2008-07-01

    This study presents a comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector, based on the historical experience of fossil (coal, oil, natural gas, and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)) and hydro chains contained in the comprehensive Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), as well as Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the nuclear chain. Full energy chains were considered because accidents can take place at every stage of the chain. Comparative analyses for the years 1969-2000 included a total of 1870 severe ({>=} 5 fatalities) accidents, amounting to 81,258 fatalities. Although 79.1% of all accidents and 88.9% of associated fatalities occurred in less developed, non-OECD countries, industrialized OECD countries dominated insured losses (78.0%), reflecting their substantially higher insurance density and stricter safety regulations. Aggregated indicators and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves showed that energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries. Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone. Expected fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear power plants; however, the maximum credible consequences can be very large. Total economic damages due to severe accidents are substantial, but small when compared with natural disasters. Similarly, external costs associated with severe accidents are generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by air pollution.

  14. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs

  15. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the...... roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road...... users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and...

  16. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study. RESULTS: Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  17. Risk and resilience factors of persons exposed to accidents

    HERTA, DANA – CRISTINA; BRÎNDAS, PAULA; TRIFU, RALUCA; COZMAN, DOINA

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims Resilience encompasses factors promoting effective functioning in the context of adversity. Data regarding resilience in the wake of accidental trauma is still scarce. The aim of the current study is to comparatively assess adaptive, life – promoting factors in persons exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. persons exposed to other types of accidents, and to identify psychological factors of resilience and vulnerability in this context of trauma exposure. Methods We ...

  18. Risk assessment of a pressurized water reactor for Class 3-8 accidents

    Hall, R.E.

    1979-10-01

    An assessment has been made of the impact on societal risk of Class 3-8 accident sequences as defined by Appendix D to 10 CFR50. The present analysis concentrates on a pressurized water reactor and utilizes realistic assumptions when practical. Conclusions are drawn as to the relative importance of the analyzed accidents and their impact on the development of a complete societal risk curve. 65 refs., 61 figs., 37 tabs.

  19. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

  20. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  1. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

  2. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A

    2007-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially mis-specified. In this paper, we focus on mis-specification in the dynamics and the dimension of the HMM. We consider both discrete and continuous state HMMs. The differences are substantial. Underestimating the number of discrete states has an ec...

  3. Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

    Woll, Tobias

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustain...

  4. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  5. Analysis of nuclear accidents and associated problems relevant to public perception of risk

    The analytical study of nuclear accidents, even if they are limited in number, forms a significant part of the vast discipline of industrial plant risk analysis. The retrospective analysis of the causes and various elements which contributed to the evolution of real accidents, as well as, the evaluation of the consequences and lessons learned, constitute a bank of information which, when suitably elaborated through a process of rational synthesis, can strongly influence the preparation of safety normatives, plant design specifications, environmental impacts assessments, and the perception of risk. This latter aspect is gaining importance today as growing public awareness and sensitivity towards the development and use of new technologies now bear heavily on new plant decision making. This paper examines how the public perception of risk regarding nuclear energy has been influenced by the events surrounding the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accidents and the way in which information dissemination concerning these accidents was handled by mass media

  6. Risk assessment of accident associated with aircraft transportation

    The new 1996 IAEA regulation for the transportation of radioactive material states a 90 m/s drop test on unyielding surface for packages transported by air. This figure originates from a statistical analysis on civil aircraft accident during the period 1975 to 1985. A review on the 1983-1989 period demonstrates comparable velocity with a less stringent definition of accident. The statistical analyses are combined with the hardness of the fly-over ground and the impact angle to generate probabilities curves giving the occurrence of a mechanical stress overtaking the drop test velocity. The following steps were carried out: statistical analysis of the accident database from the ICOA (International Civil Aviation Organisation) to appreciate the accident characteristics with special attention to the impact velocity and angle. Modelling of the impact speed in each phase of flight (Take off, Climbing, Cruise, Approach and Landing), in order to evaluate the probability of occurrence of a given crash impact for different flight configurations. Qualitative analysis of recorder failures available in France. As the statistical analysis is based on the available impact speed, a bias can be introduced if major crashes are neglected. In this respect, the qualitative analysis should give some elements to characterize the relationship between the non-availability of the information recorded on the black box and the severity of the accident. (author)

  7. Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

    The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety

  8. Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

    Yang, Jooneon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-02-15

    The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  9. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P

    2005-03-01

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  10. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  11. Major chemical accidents in industrializing countries: the socio-political amplification of risk.

    de Souza Porto, M F; de Freitas, C M

    1996-02-01

    Accidents in the chemical industry, such as those that took place in Seveso (1976) and Bhopal (1984), may kill or injure thousands of people, cause serious health hazards and irreversible environmental damage. The aim of this paper is to examine the ever-increasing risk of similar accidents becoming a frequent ocurrence in the so-called industrializing countries. Using figures from some of the worst chemical accidents in the last decades, data on the Bhopal disaster, and Brazil's social and institutional characteristics, we put forward the hypothesis that present social, political and economic structures in industrializing countries make these countries much more vulnerable to such accidents and create the type of setting where--if and when these accidents occur--they will have even more catastrophic consequences. The authors argue that only the transformation of local structures, and stronger technical cooperation between international organizations, industrialized and industrializing countries could reduce this vulnerability. PMID:8868221

  12. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  13. Statistical evaluation of population data for calculation of radioactive material transport accident risks

    Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plume of radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km) of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, and Urban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from the hypothetical accident site. The authors present a GIS-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. The authors conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate

  14. Does the influence of risk factors on accident occurrence change over time?

    Elvik, Rune

    2016-06-01

    A large number of studies have been made to assess the relationship between risk factors and accident occurrence. A risk factor is any factor that makes an accident more likely to occur. Very many risk factors have been identified, for example, being under the influence of alcohol while driving, driving on slippery roads, entering complex junctions, or driving in hours of darkness. Few studies have been made to determine whether the associations between risk factors and accident occurrence remain stable over time. This paper presents examples of studies that have replicated estimates of risk. All these studies were made within a given country, using the same method, to ensure that estimates of risk are comparable. The risk factors included in the paper are: daylight, horizontal curves, junctions, road surface conditions, precipitation, drinking and driving and driver age. For all these risk factors, their association with accidents has changed over time, mostly becoming weaker. A protective factor, snow depth, is also included. Its protective effect has become smaller over time. Possible reasons for the weakening influence of risk factors are discussed. PMID:26974026

  15. Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk.

    Yannis, George; Golias, John; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends. PMID:17729136

  16. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    Milczarek, M.; Brun, E; Houtman, I.; Goudswaard, A.; Evers, M.; Bovenkamp, M. van de; Roskams, N.; Op de Beeck, R.; Pahkin, K.; Berthet, M.; Morvan, E.; Kuhn, K.; Kaluza, K; Hupke, M.; Hauke, A.

    2007-01-01

    This report is in cooperation with TNO Work and Employment and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. The expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks was carried out by means of the Delphi method. The main emerging psychosocial risks revealed were related to new forms of employment contracts and job insecurity, the OSH risks for the ageing workforce, work intensification - high workload and work pressure, high emotional demands at work - including violence and bullying, and poo...

  17. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions

    Ivan, K.; Haidu, I.; Benedek, J.; Ciobanu, S. M.

    2015-09-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, low-light conditions significantly influence the frequency of traffic accidents in an urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low-light conditions on traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The dependence degree between light and the number of traffic accidents was analysed using the Pearson correlation, and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the light conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injury rate for the 0.5 km2 areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results show a strong linear correlation between the low-light conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accident occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions at the city entrances/exits, which represent vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low light and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence, enabled us to identify the areas of high traffic accident risk in Cluj-Napoca.

  18. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  19. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    YAMASHITA, Shunichi

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Projec...

  20. Risk of low back pain in people admitted to hospital for traffic accidents and falls.

    Walsh, K; Cruddas, M.; Coggon, D.

    1992-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to assess the risk of back symptoms in people admitted to hospital because of traffic accidents and falls. DESIGN--The study was a cross sectional survey with information collected by postal questionnaire. Main outcome measures were associations between hospital admission for a traffic accident or fall and reported first onset of back symptoms at the same age and at later ages. SETTING--General practices in seven towns and one rural district. SUBJECTS--1172 men an...

  1. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, Finn

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s...... changes designed to increase productivity and reduce staffing levels more rapidly affect efficiency and productivity than they do accident occurrence, and that they penalize young workers in the first instance....

  2. Accident risks in nuclear facilities (a bibliography with abstracts). Period covered: 1964--August 1975

    The bibliography presents risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents are included. (Contains 131 abstracts)

  3. Web-based hydrological modeling system for flood forecasting and risk mapping

    Wang, Lei; Cheng, Qiuming

    2008-10-01

    Mechanism of flood forecasting is a complex system, which involves precipitation, drainage characterizes, land use/cover types, ground water and runoff discharge. The application of flood forecasting model require the efficient management of large spatial and temporal datasets, which involves data acquisition, storage, pre-processing and manipulation, analysis and display of model results. The extensive datasets usually involve multiple organizations, but no single organization can collect and maintain all the multidisciplinary data. The possible usage of the available datasets remains limited primarily because of the difficulty associated with combining data from diverse and distributed data sources. Difficulty in linking data, analysis tools and model is one of the barriers to be overcome in developing real-time flood forecasting and risk prediction system. The current revolution in technology and online availability of spatial data, particularly, with the construction of Canadian Geospatial Data Infrastructure (CGDI), a lot of spatial data and information can be accessed in real-time from distributed sources over the Internet to facilitate Canadians' need for information sharing in support of decision-making. This has resulted in research studies demonstrating the suitability of the web as a medium for implementation of flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. Web-based hydrological modeling system can provide the framework within which spatially distributed real-time data accessed remotely to prepare model input files, model calculation and evaluate model results for flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. This paper will develop a prototype web-base hydrological modeling system for on-line flood forecasting and risk mapping in the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) area, southern Ontario, Canada, integrating information retrieval, analysis and model analysis for near real time river runoff prediction, flood frequency prediction, flood risk and flood inundation

  4. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2015-01-01

    . However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based......Global Real Time Control (RTC) of urban drainage system is increasingly seen as cost-effective solution in order to respond to increasing performance demand (e.g. reduction of Combined Sewer Overflow, protection of sensitive areas as bathing water etc.). The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA...... forecasted runoff volumes, the objectives for the control strategies might vary from optimization of water volumes to reduction of CSO risk. Thus different modes are implemented in DORA-LF (Long Forecast) in order to adjust the control strategies to the situations. In order to handle the long forecast, the...

  5. Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models

    esposito, francesco paolo; cummins, mark

    2015-01-01

    Extending previous risk model backtesting literature, we construct multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) with the stationary bootstrap. We conduct multiple tests which control for the generalized confidence level and employ the bootstrap MHT to design multiple comparison testing. We consider absolute and relative predictive ability to test a range of competing risk models, focusing on Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ExS). In devising the test for the absolute predictive ability, we ta...

  6. Risks of insufficient information communication during the post-accident period of the Chernobyl accident

    The modified psychological climate and increased social-psychological pressure in the population, affected as a result of the Chernobyl accident, emerged partially because of insufficient information provided to the population with respect to the radiation and ecological conditions. Such situation resulted in development of chronic psychological stress in the majority of the population residing on the affected areas. The post-accidental stress, which appeared in many people, is characterized by its extraordinary stability. Up to 74% of the affected population were subjected to stress. In 1986 the depressing condition of anxiety was observed in 50% of those examined. By 1998 this number increased up to 76%. Aggravation of health condition still remains in the center of anxiety reasons for the majority of those examined, when in the areas contaminated greater the number of those anxious is much higher than in others. Besides, the urban population is more concerned in unsatisfactory solution of the problem of liquidation of the Chernobyl accident consequences, than village inhabitants (88,5 and 79,70/o accordingly). Noteworthy, that 43% of the urban population and only 25,20/6 of the village settlers is concerned in small efficiency of rehabilitation activities on the radioactive contaminated territories. Respondents-women 86,1%) are more anxious than men 84,2%). Besides, almost three quarters of the respondents 74,5%) for last three years became more anxious for their future and future of their children, which leads to greater worries. At the same time it is necessary to take into account, that 7 of the respondents expressed apathy and indifference to everything, and at 75% have the feeling of hopelessness. Another negative tendency exposed in the population, affected by the Chernobyl accident is the reduction of trust to the authorities and governmental bodies, reduction of satisfaction by the activity of local authorities. Only 60,6% of the interrogated

  7. [Driving simulators in risk assessment of traffic accident among drivers with obstructive sleep apnea].

    Siedlecka, Jadwiga; Bortkiewicz, Alicja

    2012-01-01

    Sleep disorders in the form of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are still underdiagnosed and insufficiently treated in drivers. This is a very important problem, because chronic sleepiness during the day and episodes of sleep during driving a road vehicle are now regarded as one of the main causes of traffic accidents, including fatal ones, caused by professional drivers. For many years driver fatigue has been considered a major risk factor of traffic accidents, while obstructive sleep apnea has remained almost completely disregarded. In the late 1980s and early 1990s epidemiological data began to indicate sleepiness and sleep deficit as the cause of up to 20% of road accidents. Later studies conducted in many countries in different groups of drivers have confirmed that people with breathing problems during sleep are much more likely to cause accidents than healthy ones. These accidents often result from sleep disorders experienced by drivers while driving, during both long monotonous journeys and in heavy urban traffic. The application of treatment involving continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) reduces the rate of accidents among drivers. In the recent years, the studies of this problem has been expanded by the use of drive simulators that quite accurately simulate real driving conditions. This approach allows to assess the driver's reactions and behaviors in different situations on the road, including the most dangerous ones. By comparing the results from the simulator with those in real conditions it will be possible to see to what extent the risk of accident in simulated conditions correlates with the risk of accident in real life settings. PMID:22779329

  8. Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2015-10-01

    Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

  9. Comparison of accident risks in different energy systems: Comments from Russian specialists

    Many articles on accident risk analysis of different energy systems in comparison with nuclear power share certain stereotypical features. For example: When assessing the risks associated with the operation of such facilities, they ignore the effects of the upgrading of RBMK reactors which was carried out after the Chernobyl accident. In their integrated assessment of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident they use numerous studies which frequently contain unreliable source data and unfounded predictions, and they ignore many socio-political factors which considerably increased the damage caused by the accident. Unfortunately, the study in question, despite its topicality and originality of approach, is also not without such shortcomings. After the Chernobyl accident, reconstruction and safety enhancement measures were implemented at nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors which were without precedent in world practice and have continued to this day. According to probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) carried out with the assistance of international experts, the probability of serious accidents at RBMKs has decreased by a factor of two or more thanks to the above mentioned measures. The mean weighted safety index for all operational RBMK reactors is 10-4 l/year and is decreasing thanks to the ongoing and planned reconstruction of all units. All operational nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors are thus on a par with the successfully operating Soviet WWERs and western boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs), and satisfy the IAEA recommendations regarding the risk level of older generation nuclear power plants. The authors of the IAEA Bulletin article give estimates of the remote radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident which range from an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 fatal cases of radiation-induced cancer, and the literature on the subject contains even more extreme estimates. However, our 14 years' experience

  10. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  11. Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

    Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

  12. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  13. Reflection of risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima nuclear accident

    At the third symposium corresponding to the Fukushima accident held by the Japan Health Physics Society (JHPS) in December 2011, Youth Researcher's Association of JHPS presented 'risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima accident'. Focusing on the presentation, this article summarized social response of radiation risk in 9 months and activities of 'Q and A site that provides public with questions and answers related to radiation and daily life' by Society members as radiation protection experts after the Fukushima accident. The author raised some two problems related with (1) what and how should be 'judgments of best experts' reflecting the BSE case as 'trans-science' problem and (2) what's 'recommendation/standards document to be referred to' harmonizing with trend of international standards. Risk communication network should be not only between 'experts' and 'public' but also including international organizations. (T. Tanaka)

  14. Risk of traffic accidents in patients with sleep-disordered breathing: reduction with nasal CPAP.

    Cassel, W; Ploch, T; Becker, C; Dugnus, D; Peter, J H; von Wichert, P

    1996-12-01

    Sleepiness whilst driving constitutes a road safety risk. Sleep-related breathing disorders are the most frequent medical cause of daytime sleepiness, and untreated patients with this condition have been shown to be at a higher risk of having accidents while driving. This study addressed the question of the extent to which treatment of sleep-disordered breathing by nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) is related to changes in patient's accident risk. Seventy eight male patients requiring treatment of sleep-related breathing disorders with nCPAP were enrolled in the study. The protocol included a questionnaire dealing with alertness-related problems while driving, an 80 min vigilance test, and the Multiple Sleep Latency Test. These baseline evaluations were repeated after 1 year of treatment with nCPAP. Fifty nine patients completed the study. The accident rate was significantly decreased from 0.8 per 100,000 km (untreated) to 0.15 per 100,000 km with nCPAP treatment. Variables that were considered to be likely to increase accident risk (sleeping spells, fatigue, vigilance test reaction time, daytime sleep latency) also improved with treatment. We conclude that treatment of sleep-disordered breathing by nasal continuous positive airway pressure is related to reduction in patient motor vehicle accident rates, probably due to the reversal of excessive daytime sleepiness. PMID:8980976

  15. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date...

  16. Iodine nutrition and risk of thyroid irradiation from nuclear accidents

    The objectives of this paper are to discuss the following aspects of physiopathology of iodine nutrition related to thyroid irradiation by nuclear accidents: (1) The cycle of iodine in nature, the dietary sources of iodine and the recommended dietary allowances for iodine. (2) The anomalies of thyroid metabolism induced by iodine deficiency. The caricatural situation as seen in endemic goitre will be used as mode. (3) The specific paediatric aspects of adaptation to iodine deficiency. (4) The present status of iodine nutrition in Europe. (author)

  17. Cost analysis and financial risk profile for severe reactor accidents at Waterford-3

    To support Louisiana Power and Light Company (LP and L) in determining an appropriate level of nuclear property insurance for Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit 3 (Waterford-3), ABZ, Incorporated, performed a series of cost analyses and developed a financial risk profile. This five-month study, conducted in 1991, identified the potential Waterford-3 severe reactor accidents and described each from a cleanup perspective, estimated the cost and schedule to cleanup from each accident, developed a probability distribution of associated financial exposure, and developed a profile of financial risk as a function of insurance coverage

  18. The possible influence of risk management, forecasting, and personnel training in physical asset management

    Schoeman, Jacobus Smit; Vlok, Pieter-Jan

    2014-01-01

    The work presented in this paper highlights the possible effects of risk management, forecasting, and personnel training in the physical asset management environment. Each section is taken separately, and an argument is formed as to why it is important and what portion of the physical asset management five-year budget each should receive. This paper considers the long-term and short-term benefits in its conclusion that risk management should receive 60 per cent of the budget, personnel traini...

  19. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in India

    Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Perveen, S.

    2012-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops etc. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Non parametric bootstrap resampling methods and Hierarchical Bayesian methods that can easily handle the high dimensionality of such problems will be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the Columbia Water Center's pilot project in Punjab region of India.

  20. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in Punjab

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2015-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the extension projects in Punjab region of India.

  1. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  2. Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

    The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population. - Highlights: • Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given. • Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004. • Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors. • Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents. • Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks

  3. Stock index Value-at-Risk forecasting: A realized volatility extreme value theory approach

    Louzis, Dimitrios P.; Spyros Xanthopoulos - Sissinis; Apostolos P. Refenes

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we propose the use of Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) type realized volatility models in combination with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) method for Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. The proposed model accounts for the long memory property of the realized volatility and the fat tails of the returns distribution. The out-of-sample forecasting results, based on the S&P 500 stock index, indicate that the HAR-type-EVT models outperform their GARCH-type counterparts in terms of sta...

  4. Risk factors for traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis: a case-reference study.

    Na Ayuthya, R S; Böhning, D

    1997-12-01

    It was aimed to study injures from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis and identify patients' characteristics as well as to search for risk factors for traffic accidents leading to hospitalization. The study included 346 in-patient cases suffering injuries from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis. The patients were recruited during a period of 4 months of the year 1992 from five hospitals in various areas of Bangkok which were judged to be representative for Bangkok Metropolis. Using the method of case-reference, relative risk could be estimated for various exposure factors. Most of the patients drove a motorcycle, had their license for only a short period, and drove more than 5 hours a day. About one third of the patients were under the influence of alcohol. The traffic accident characteristics were that they occurred mainly at night time with the peak between 21.00 and 24.00 hours. About 90% of all traffic accidents occurred during the rainy season and most of them occurred near to road junctions. Reference data was available for some variables and the following risk group could be identified: RR (male-age 20-24) = 17.06 (8.8-33.9), RR (single-marital status) = 2.25 (1.7-3.1), RR (primary-education) = 6.2 (2.9-12.6), RR (unskilled labourer-occupation) = 3.91 (2.7-5.9), RR (salesperson-occupation) = 3.34 (2.2-5.0). PMID:9656420

  5. A review of accident response models for risk assessments involving the transport of spent nuclear fuel

    A study was performed to explore the differences between two spent fuel transportation risk assessment models used to calculate conditional accident probabilities and radionuclide release fractions. The Wilmot model, from work performed at Sandia National Laboratories, and the NRC-sponsored Modal Study model were compared to identify areas of conservatism and to assess their applicability to current risk assessment studies. The study included reviewing model assumptions, mathematical equations, and data sources for each model. The total probability hazard results showed that Modal Study gave several orders of magnitude higher total relative risk than the Wilmot values. However, considering the very low magnitudes of the risk, this difference is not considered significant with respect to the overall risk assessment. It was also found that the documentation and referencing of accident response region models needs improvements

  6. Assessment of accident risk among elderly in domestic environment: A cross-sectional study in rural south Karnataka, India

    Aras, Radha Y.; Venkatesh Narayan; Neevan D D′souza; Irene Veigas

    2012-01-01

    Background: Geriatric population is vulnerable to domestic accidents. Safety-related provisions/behavior in domestic environment can reduce the risk of accidents. Aim and Objective: To know the safety practices followed at home by people above 60 years age and to assess few epidemiological factors associated with their risk of domestic accident. Study Design: A community-based cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: Using Lot Quality Technique, 135 elderly (out of 196; at 7% desired lev...

  7. The Risk Assessment on Arbitrary Accidents Orientating in the TSF For LILW Management

    The objective of this study is to conduct the risk assessment on arbitrary accidents originating in the TSF for LILW management through the result of dose assessment. In order to conduct the risk assessment on arbitrary accidents originating in the TSF for LILW management, the result of dose assessment was converted to the risk index. The risk conversion parameter for deriving the risk index was considered in the concept of the total risk factor suggested in the ICRP. After considering each parameter, the total risk factor was represented by the value of 7.3E·5 risk/mSv in terms of risk dimension. And then, the risk-level was also derived with respect to each risk degree. Consequently, the risk-level of all of drums was III regardless of waste stream with respect to the dropping of drums and fire. Especially, the risk originated in dropping of drums could be ignored. In opposition to many of researches on the disposal of LILW, the risk assessment on the TSF has scarcely been conducted. Furthermore, the details in regards of the safety analysis on this facility have not been considered in the preliminary and final safety analysis report because this report focused on the nuclear reactor system rather than this facility. As a consequence of these situations, the number of the researches on the arbitrary accidents occurring in the TSF has not been enough. And then, the numbers of the researches on the predisposal management of LILW have been required for the preparation on new regulatory frame

  8. [Motivation of the employer for accident prevention and rehabilitation through risk-justified premiums].

    Hartmann, A L; Merz, R

    1989-01-01

    The Swiss workers' compensation law prescribes experience rating. Successful efforts of an employer to reduce the risk of accidents through adequate preventive measures on one hand, and on the other hand to keep subsequent costs of still occurring accidents low with quick, consistent and generous measures of rehabilitation, will therefore result in a lower insurance rate. The motivating influence and success of this self-responsibility is pointed out with the figures of a trading company who had been detached from a large risk-community due to bad results. The success with accident prevention and the very favourable ratio achievable of costs for medical treatment (as a measure for the severity of the injuries) to daily payments and costs for permanent disabilities is shown with the example of a construction machinery company. What relations and consecutive costs result from (partly conscious) neglect of rehabilitation is demonstrated with the figures of a construction company. PMID:2532438

  9. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  10. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  11. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  12. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  13. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  14. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  15. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  16. Estimate of the economy-wide financial risk associated with a serious nuclear reactor accident

    Since the accident at Three Mile Island, considerable attention has focused on the financial risks associated with nuclear reactor accidents. Previous studies have calculated the plant-specific financial risk due to primarily off-site consequences, including most probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) beginning first with the Reactor Safety Study. Previous studies, however, have not studied the possible economy-wide costs of a severe reactor accident due to such considerations as adverse public opinion, enhanced concern in the financial community, and, particularly, regulatory constraints placed on the industry subsequent to an accident. These considerations could lead to a spectrum of scenarios, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria, which may have far reaching economy-wide effects. It is the purpose of this study to provide an estimate of these effects, and to compare these estimates with the plant-specific financial risks calculated earlier by others. First, a model is presented for including the impact of various regulatory response options on the nuclear industry, followed by a discussion of how the economy-wide costs associated with these options may be calculated. Then, results of series of calculations are presented, and finally, conclusions are given

  17. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...

  18. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  19. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo, E-mail: veronica.boemer@usp.b [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Pereira, Tatiana de Sousa, E-mail: araquino@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  20. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies. PMID:17920847

  1. Venomous mollusks: the risks of human accidents by conus snails (gastropoda: conidae) in Brazil.

    Haddad, Vidal; de Paula Neto, João Batista; Cobo, Válter José

    2006-01-01

    Mollusks of the genus Conus present a venomous apparatus composed of radulae, a chitin structure linked to glands, which injects potent neurotoxic peptides, causing serious human envenomation and even death, associated with the blockage of certain receptors and muscular paralysis. No reported envenomation has occurred in Brazil, but certain populations are at risk of accidents. PMID:17160331

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  3. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  4. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  5. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  6. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  7. The circumstances of severe accident measure implementation and 'the residual risk'

    Time-series sequence and direct and root causes of Fukushima Daiichi accident were up to validation of Hatamura's investigation committee on the accident but it would be clear that measure against tsunamis was not good enough. Based on this unprecedented accident, revision of safety design review guide and regulatory requirements of severe accident (SA) measure were under consideration while SA measure had been implemented as public self-safety management by administrative guidance. History of SA measure preparation including the introduction of 'the residual risk' for expansion and upgrade of SA measure in new review guide of seismic design of nuclear power reactor facilities was looked back to learn lessons for better safety operation of nuclear facilities. Nuclear operators established accident management (AM) incorporating appropriate SA measure extracted from probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in 2002, which had been expanded and reinforced by periodic safety review (PSR). At the revision of regulation in 2003, PSA became requirement of operational safety program but not mandatory as before and lost the chance of regulatory review at the PSR. Extent of SA measure had not been expanded based on latest knowledge of SA research and PSA technology. Evaluation of 'the residual risk' obtained by seismic PSA could not be reported at seismic back check so far because seismic evaluation against ground motion was obliged to be preferred. Safety regulation system based on safety culture of both nuclear operators and regulators should be established for implementation of advanced AM for a certainty. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    Jan Christian Kaiser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI 4; 62 severe accidents among the world’s reactors in 100,000 years of operation has been estimated. This result is compatible with the frequency estimate of a probabilistic safety assessment for a typical pressurised power reactor in Germany. It is used in scenario calculations concerning the development in numbers of reactors in the next twenty years. For the base scenario with constant reactor numbers the time to the next accident among the world's 441 reactors, which were connected to the grid in 2010, is estimated to 11 (95% CI 3.7; 52 years. In two other scenarios a moderate increase or decrease in reactor numbers have negligible influence on the results. The time to the next accident can be extended well above the lifetime of reactors by retiring a sizeable number of less secure ones and by safety improvements for the rest.

  9. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  10. Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

    Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

    2013-06-01

    Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

  11. Common Risk Target for severe accidents of nuclear power plants based on IAEA INES scale

    The IAEA has repeatedly recommended that the nuclear community should arrive at a common understanding and definition of safety goals for severe accidents in nuclear power plants. The recommendation has only found partial answers, despite the numerous working groups and forums devoted to this effort. The most widely accepted definition of goals is based on the concept of Large (Early) Release Frequencies (L(E)RF) and its derivatives, a surrogate concept derived from results of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) which was first introduced in the USA almost twenty years ago and much later accepted by the USNRC for risk informed decision making, but not for safety demonstrations. Other types of Safety Goals have been adopted by some nuclear authorities, but the main drawback of all current definitions is that they may apply only to LWRs. The lack of unifying safety/risk parameter throughout of PSAs worldwide is the basis of the present work, and an attempt is made to arrive at the definition of a Risk Target for severe accidents in NPPs, consistent with the IAEA definitions having a technical basis, which can be adopted without modifications for Generation IV power plants. The proposal of Common Risk Target in this work represents an attempt to define a Common Risk Target based on technical reasoning, reflecting IAEA definitions as well as harmonization requirements raised by the whole European Community in various OECD, ASAMPSA2 and SARNET (Guentay et al., 2006) conclusions and Council Directive of The European Union (Community Framework, 2009) as well as lastly performed stress tests of nuclear power plants throughout the Europe (Peer Review Report, 2012). The basic concept of CRT was first introduced and developed within the European project ASAMPSA2 by the authors of this article and was accepted by majority of world PSA experts participating in final evaluation and survey of the project (Guentay, 2011). In the proposed Risk Target concept an innovative

  12. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  13. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  14. Inter-basin water transfer-supply model and risk analysis with consideration of rainfall forecast information

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.

  15. The risk of accident in nuclear power plants - Quotes and questions. National debate on energy transition. Taking the risk of nuclear accident into account. Note to the 'scenarios' subgroup of the group of experts

    After an overview of the production of electricity from nuclear energy and of its risks, the author discusses the issue of nuclear safety by distinguishing the different points of view, by describing the different levels between a severe and a major accident, and by recalling the statements made by the ASN and the IRSN on this issue. He describes the various reasons and consequences of accidents: types of accidents which could result in a core fusion, the containment failure as the major accident. He discusses the questions and comments about major issues like: strength of reactor vessels, hydrogen explosion, water vapour explosion, corium crossing the concrete sill plate, corium recovery, MOX as an aggravating situation for safety. In the last part, the author discusses the global assessment of a risk of a nuclear accident: probabilities and occurrences, significant accidents on PWRs, premonitory analysis, demonstration of nuclear safety

  16. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC's Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs

  17. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    NONE

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  18. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga;

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...... possible reference pool of projects and second to apply overconfidence theory (OT) to interpret expert judgments (EJ) about costs and demand as relating to a specific project up for examination. By combining flexible use of RCF with EJ based on OT interpretation it is argued that the current adjustment...

  19. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. PMID:26513334

  20. Forecasting Model of Risk of Cancer in Lung Cancer Pedigree in a Case-control Study

    Huan LIN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Annual lung screening using spiral computed tomography (CT, has a high sensitivity of detecting early lung cancer (LC, but its high rates of false-positive often lead to unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study is to create a forecasting model of high risk individuals to lung cancer. Methods The pathologic diagnoses of LC in Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute were consecutively chosen as the probands. All the members of the first-degree relatives of probands' and their spouses' were enrolled in this study. These pedigrees consisted of 633 probands' pedigrees and 565 spouses' pedigrees. Unless otherwise stated, analyses were performed using the SPSS 17.0 statistical software package. Results Compared with the control, a family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with LC risk (OR=1.71, P<0.001, the sub-group of either one infected individual or more than two infected individuals in first-degree relatives showed significantly statistical differences (P=0.005, P=0.002. In the forecasting model, the risk compared to that in Chinese population was from 0.38 to 63.08 folds. In the population whose risk was more than 10 times to the Chinese population, the accuracy rate of prediction was 88.1%. Conclusion A family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with increased LC risk. The more infected individuals exist in first-degree relatives, the more risk was showed. In the forecasting model, smokers especially heavy ones whose risk were more than 10 times to the Chinese population should be receive annual screening. The population are positive at least any two conditions which including male, lung disease history, occupation expose and history of cancer in first-degree relative.

  1. Managing Forecast Uncertainty and Risk in Multireservoir, Multiobjective, and Multistakeholder Systems

    Kistenmacher, M.; Georgakakos, A. P.

    2012-12-01

    Hydroclimatic forecasts are often issued in probabilistic form to capture the uncertainties that remain in forecasting inflow magnitude and timing. These forecasts can then be used as input to stochastic management models to help operate reservoir systems and provide stakeholders with probabilistic forecasts of system variables, such as reservoir storages, releases, hydropower production, water withdrawals, and water quality parameters. However, due to high computational requirements, many stochastic management models only evaluate one management policy and are therefore not capable of exploring risk management options. Furthermore, such models usually neglect elements of the real-life water resources systems that they are supposed to represent. This presentation focuses on several advances designed to address these shortcoming and shows their application to a real-life reservoir system in California's Central Valley. This first part of the study focuses on exploring and managing the risks and uncertainties in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly consider issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to explore different risk management options was developed. The technique allows users to derive policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences by imposing variance constraints on relevant system variables. The second part of this study highlights the expansion of an existing management model, previously only considering monthly water quantity fluxes, to incorporate water quality and flood control objectives. An existing water temperature model is analyzed and used to produce a reduced order model while the flood control objectives are considered through the development

  2. The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange

    Ben R. Craig; Keller, Joachim

    2005-01-01

    We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified to account for correlation across time between our random variables, which are uniform under the null hypothesis. We find that the dens...

  3. Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

    Leccadito, A; Boffelli, S; Urga, G.

    2014-01-01

    We propose independence and conditional coverage tests aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e. joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementatio...

  4. Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

    Badshah, Ihsan Ullah

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied ...

  5. Fundamental risk analysis and VaR forecasts of the Nord Pool system price

    Lundby, Martin; Uppheim, Kristoffer

    2011-01-01

    This paper compares the Value at Risk (VaR) forecasting performance of different quantile regression models to conventional GARCH specifications on the Nord Pool system price. The sample covers hourly data from 2005-2011. In order to identify significant explanatory variables, we use a linear quantile regression to characterize the effects of fundamental factors on the system price formations. From our analysis we are able to show how the sensitivity of the variables change over the range of ...

  6. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  7. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  8. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  9. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    Letícia Silveira Cardoso

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%, physical (88.2%, physiological (64.3% and biological (62.4%. In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05. It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

  10. A web-based nuclear accident illumination system based on multilevel flow model - for risk communication and nuclear safety culture

    This paper introduces a new method to illuminate the nuclear accident by Multilevel Flow Model, and based on the method, a web-based nuclear accident illumination system is proposed to represent the current nuclear accident in nuclear power plant of Japan in an understandable way. The MFM is a means-end and part-whole modeling method to describe the structure and the intention of a plant process. The relationship between the MFM functions enables accident prediction for a plant process. Thus, a web-based accident illumination system based by MFM can describe the nuclear accident in the nuclear power plant clearly and be accessed by public to make the public get to know and understand the nuclear power and nuclear risk. The public can build their own confidence of the nuclear power by their understanding of the nuclear accident with this system and this is helpful to build a harmonious development environment for nuclear power. (author)

  11. The accident at Gorleben: A case study of risk communication and risk amplification in the Federal Republic of Germany

    On May 12, 1987 an accident happened in the ''pilot mine'' at Gorleben in the Federal Republic of Germany where the feasibility of a repository or high-radioactive nuclear waste is currently being investigated. A miner was killed during that accident and two others were severely injured. Although this accident happened during conventional mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event received much public attention and news coverage and had a strong impact on the political debate on the Gorleben project of a repository mine for radioactive waste and even on the nuclear power controversy in general. This study does not aim to evaluate the accident that happened in the Gorleben pilot mine from a geological point of view nor does it aim to evaluate the West German waste disposal concept. All information given in chapter 2 on these aspects should be considered as background information, useful in understanding the subject of this case study: the risk communication concerning the Gorleben project in general and the accident in the shaft in particular

  12. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. PMID:26188653

  13. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  14. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  15. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  16. Increased Risk of Hospitalization Related to Motor Vehicle Accidents Among People Taking Zolpidem: A Case–Crossover Study

    Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lai, Jung-Nien; Lee, Chang-Hsing; Wang, Jung-Der; Chen, Pau-Chung

    2011-01-01

    Background Several epidemiological and experimental studies have found a positive association between the risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) and use of zopiclone and benzodiazepines. There is, however, little evidence of any risk of MVA attributable to the use of zolpidem 1 day before such accidents. We attempted to determine whether the use of zolpidem 1 day before is associated with an increased risk of an MVA. Methods Using a 1-million-person randomly sampled cohort from the Taiwan Nat...

  17. Sleep disorders, medical conditions, and road accident risk.

    Smolensky, Michael H; Di Milia, Lee; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    Sleep disorders and various common acute and chronic medical conditions directly or indirectly affect the quality and quantity of one's sleep or otherwise cause excessive daytime fatigue. This article reviews the potential contribution of several prevalent medical conditions - allergic rhinitis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, rheumatoid arthritis/osteoarthritis - and chronic fatigue syndrome and clinical sleep disorders - insomnia, obstructive sleep apnea, narcolepsy, periodic limb movement of sleep, and restless legs syndrome - to the risk for drowsy-driving road crashes. It also explores the literature on the cost-benefit of preventive interventions, using obstructive sleep apnea as an example. Although numerous investigations have addressed the impact of sleep and medical disorders on quality of life, few have specifically addressed their potential deleterious effect on driving performance and road incidents. Moreover, since past studies have focused on the survivors of driver crashes, they may be biased. Representative population-based prospective multidisciplinary studies are urgently required to clarify the role of the fatigue associated with common ailments and medications on traffic crash risk of both commercial and non-commercial drivers and to comprehensively assess the cost-effectiveness of intervention strategies. PMID:21130215

  18. FACTORS RELATED TO MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENT RISK BEHAVIOR AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND.

    Chumpawadee, Urai; Homchampa, Pissamai; Thongkrajai, Pramote; Suwanimitr, Amorn; Chadbunchachai, Witaya

    2015-07-01

    Young motorcycle drivers in Thailand are at high risk for road traffic accidents. We conducted this study to identify factors associated with motorcycle accident risk behavior (MARB). We studied 372 randomly selected university students aged 18-22 years (mean 20.2 years; women comprised 68.0% of our participants), who attend a government university in northeastern Thailand. Each student was asked to fill out a questionnaire asking about MARB and factors associated with this behavior. The respondents had an average of 6.2 years (SD+3.09) motorcycle driving experience, 72.3% had a motorcycle driver's license and 83.0% had accident insurance. The prevalence of self-reported motorcycle accident injuries was 42.7%. Their major MARB were using a telephone while driving (69.3%), speeding (45.4%), driving with more than one passenger (40.1%), drunk driving (22.1%), and not wearing a helmet (23.3%). Factors related to MARB were: gender, with men engaged in risky behavior more often than women (p 5 years experience were more likely to engage in risky behavior (p < 0.05); and knowledge of safe driving, those with a greater knowledge of safe driving were more likely to drive safely (p < 0.001). Having a greater awareness of MARB was associated with lower risk of engaging in risky behavior (p < 0.001). Students who engaged in risky behavior were more likely to view it as normal behavior (p < 0.001) and less likely to have adequate self-control (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate a need to strengthen accident prevention programs for university students in northeastern Thailand. PMID:26867401

  19. Quantifying the Influence of Social Characteristics on Accident and Injuries Risk: A Comparative Study Between Motorcyclists and Car Drivers

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Olesen, Morten N.; Hels, Tove

    2011-01-01

    In the recent years many European countries have experienced an increase in the number of fatal traffic accidents with motorcycles. Bos et al. (2008) reports an increase from 17.4% to 21.1% of the total number of fatalities on powered two-wheelers in the European traffic. Several reasons for this...... that the risk of being in an accident or in an injury accident decreased with age, educational level, and income. Furthermore, the risk of being in an accident was 1.72 to 1.96 times higher and the risk of being in an injury accident was 1.38 to 1.44 times higher for men compared to women. For...

  20. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  1. Forecasting Radiation Effects on Wildlife in Japan After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, Based on Limited Information of Post-Accident Early Stage in 2011

    Saito, M. U.; Doko, T.; Koike, F.

    2014-11-01

    Due to the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, massive radioactive materials were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima NPP). It is crucial to predict the regional distribution and magnitude of the effects on wildlife by radioactive materials. However, during the post-accident early stage in 2011, limited information on large-scale pollution and prediction maps was open to public. Hence, this paper aimed to provide (1) the pollution map covering areas within 300 km from the Fukushima NPP where the radiation intensity exceeded 0.5 μSv/h, (2) pollution maps which predicted air dose for the next 30 years after the accident, and (3) maps of areas where wildlife might be affected by radioactive isotopes by the Fukushima nuclear accident. First, the relative contributions of 131I, 134Cs, and 137Cs were estimated from time series observation data. Second, a 30-year prediction of the pollution was calculated based on the isotope half-lives. Third, the chronic radiation effects on vertebrates were estimated using the threshold dose rate proposed by Sazykina et al. (2009). We examined the chronic radiation effects on morbidity, reproduction, and longevity. The results indicated that radioactive materials could have affected vertebrate morbidity within a 350 km2 area in early April 2011; the threshold level was the median result of Sazykina et al. (2009) with bootstrapping. Based on the prediction, a 15.5 km2 region will remain affected after 30 years. These areas should be monitored to confirm the effects of radioactivity on wildlife.

  2. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  3. HTGR accident initiation and progression analysis status report. Phase II risk assessment

    The primary purpose of this report is to document AIPA studies performed on the HTGR since issuance of the eight volumes. Implementation of the R and D recommendations is discussed, which includes consideration of new initiating events and accident sequences, modeling of fission product release from fuel particles, factors affecting PCRV plateout during core heatup, and the effect of earthquakes on plant operation. The Phase II risk assessment of core heatup events is presented. The major elements of the study include event trees and probability assessments, physical process evaluations, and evaluation of fission product transport and the associated radiological consequences. A risk assessment of accidents initiated by failures of the steam generators, including economizer-evaporator-superheater sections and the reheaters, is presented and the impact of various plant design options is quantified

  4. [No traumatic labor accident risk in diabetic patient. View from the Spanish legislation].

    Vicente-Herrero, Ma Teófila; Capdevila-García, Luisa M; Ramírez Íñiguez-de la Torre, Ma Victoria; López-González, Ángel Arturo; Terradillos-García, Ma Jesús; Piñaga-Solé, Montserrat; Aguilar-Jiménez, Encarna; Tejedo-Benedicto, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    The Spanish legislation includes the concept of industrial accidents and industrial damage since 1900, although since then in our country some legislative changes have been made, reaching the current Occupational Risk Prevention Law (ORPL) of 1995 and the legislation emanating from it. This is a controversial concept, if we talk about nontraumatic labor injury that carries consequences in the workplace, civil, criminal and contentious administrative disputes, and economic gains. It differs from others in both in qualifying risk and their benefits; the concept also exists in the other European Union countries and in different Spanish-American countries. Therefore the objective of the paper is to discuss the concept of traumatic industrial accident and non-traumatic labor injury in Spain from the point of view of our law and to establish future benchmarks with professionals of other countries around us for enabling collaboration and joint improvement of the safety and about the health of workers. PMID:21194519

  5. Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

  6. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    Michio Murakami; Kyoko Ono; Masaharu Tsubokura; Shuhei Nomura; Tomoyoshi Oikawa; Tosihiro Oka; Masahiro Kami; Taikan Oki

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "r...

  7. EXPRESS METHOD OF ESTIMATION OF THE POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL RISK IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS ON TRANSPORT

    M. M. Biliaiev; L. Ya. Muntian

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The present research is aimed to the development of a method to assess the potential territorial risk in accidents on the railways, which takes into account the specificity of the chemically hazardous substances emission in emergency situations during their transportation. Methodology. The basis of the proposed method is numerical modeling of the transfer process is chemically dangerous substances in the atmosphere. The basis of the numerical model is the equation of convective-diffu...

  8. The radiation risks of the accident spectrum of the Greek research reactor

    The Greek Research Reactor is a 5MW swimming pool type reactor located within Athens area, a large population center of 3081000 inhabitants. The consequence analysis of the reactor focuses on the risks stemming from reactivity, coolant flow blockage, and loss of coolant accidents. Individual doses are estimated to a distance of 20km from the reactor site. Collective exposure and latent health effects for the inhabitants of the region are also calculated. (author)

  9. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. PMID:26817782

  10. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  11. Optimisation of protection and evaluation of risk in the case of transport accidents with dangerous materials

    In ICRP Publications 22 and 26, cost benefit analysis was recommended as the ideal mechanism for determining the acceptability of a proposal involving exposure of people to radiation and the principles of justification and optimisation were expressed in mathematical notation. These principles of optimisation of protection were applied and the risks to the public evaluated in transport accidents with dangerous materials. The cost-effective results obtained in this study were similar to those obtained for safety systems in PWR reactors. (UK)

  12. Perceptions of accident risk among on-track machine workers : an interview study

    Morgan, Jim; Abbott, Rachel; Furness, Penny; Webster-Spriggs, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    Although non-fatal injuries remain a frequent occurrence in safety-critical work, very few studies have examined the ways in which organisational systems and processes influence individual safety behaviour. Even fewer have explored the perceived factors contributing to accident risk using qualitative research methods. This short paper presents the initial results from a thematic analysis of ten interviews with On Track Machine (OTM) operatives. Issues arising from two key themes (fatigue, and...

  13. Risk management and role of schools of the Tokai-village radiation accident in 1999. Safety education and risk management before and during the radiation accident from the standpoint of school nurse teachers

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate safety education and risk management in the neighborhood schools before and during the radiation accident in the Tokai-village in 1999 from the standpoint of school nurse teachers. Eighty-six school nurse teachers from 44 elementary, 25 junior-high, 14 high and 3 handicapped children's schools were surveyed within neighboring towns and villages. The main results were as follows: There had been few risk management systems against the potential radiation accidents including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection in all of the neighboring schools. There were no significant difference in risk management systems among the schools before the accident, though the anxiety rates of school children were significantly higher in the schools nearest to the accident site. Some radiation risk management systems must be established in neighboring schools including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection. (author)

  14. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  15. Risk of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    The appropriateness of the initial response and countermeasures taken following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 should be further examined. Implementation of a prospective epidemiological study on human health risks from low-dose radiation exposure and comprehensive health protection from radiation should be emphasized on a basis of the lessons learnt from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. In contrast, the doses to a vast majority of the population in Fukushima were not high enough to expect to see any increase in incidence of cancer and health effects in the future, however, public concerns about the long-term health effects of radioactive environmental contamination have increased in Japan. Since May 2011, the Fukushima Prefecture started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project with the purpose of long-term health care administration and early medical diagnosis/treatment for prefectural residents. In this report, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence after nuclear accidents, especially due to early exposure of radioactive iodine, will be focused upon to understand the current situation of risk of thyroid cancer in Fukushima, and the difficult challenges surrounding accurate estimations of low-dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures will be discussed. (author)

  16. Risk of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.

    Yamashita, Shunichi; Suzuki, Shinichi

    2013-09-01

    The appropriateness of the initial response and countermeasures taken following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 should be further examined. Implementation of a prospective epidemiological study on human health risks from low-dose radiation exposure and comprehensive health protection from radiation should be emphasized on a basis of the lessons learnt from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. In contrast, the doses to a vast majority of the population in Fukushima were not high enough to expect to see any increase in incidence of cancer and health effects in the future, however, public concerns about the long-term health effects of radioactive environmental contamination have increased in Japan. Since May 2011, the Fukushima Prefecture started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project with the purpose of long-term health care administration and early medical diagnosis/treatment for prefectural residents. In this report, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence after nuclear accidents, especially due to early exposure of radioactive iodine, will be focused upon to understand the current situation of risk of thyroid cancer in Fukushima, and the difficult challenges surrounding accurate estimations of low-dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures will be discussed. PMID:23978638

  17. Estimation of Value-at-Risk on Romanian Stock Exchange Using Volatility Forecasting Models

    Claudiu Ilie OPREANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C. VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility than past data. To emphasize this fact, recently, EWMA and GARCH models have become critical tools in financial applications. The outcome of this study is that GARCH provides more accurate analysis than EWMA.This approach is useful for traders and risk managers to be able to forecast the future volatility on a certain market.

  18. Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

    Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are

  19. Estimation of stochastic effects risk in children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    Radiation risk estimation of stochastic effect was evaluated in a group of children assisted in the Cuba Republic as part of the program for medical attention with children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident . Doses, received from different sources, were estimated for risk evaluation. The study shows total detrimental effects between 0,02 - 0,01% for different groups; values lower than expected for developed country (17-20%). Fatal thyroid cancer increased up to 0,07% in one of the studied groups. (authors). 8 refs., 4 tabs

  20. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG (radioisotope thermoelectric generator) on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    Goldman, M. (California Univ., Davis, CA (USA)); Nelson, R.C. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA)); Bollinger, L. (Air Force Inspection and Safety Center, Kirtland AFB, NM (USA)); Hoover, M.D. (Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (USA). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.); Templeton, W. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Anspaugh, L. (Lawren

    1990-11-02

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher. 83 refs.

  1. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  2. Chronobiologic perspectives of black time--Accident risk is greatest at night: An opinion paper.

    Reinberg, Alain; Smolensky, Michael H; Riedel, Marc; Touitou, Yvan; Le Floc'h, Nadine; Clarisse, René; Marlot, Michel; Berrez, Stéphane; Pelisse, Didier; Mauvieux, Benoît

    2015-08-01

    Simon Folkard in 1997 introduced the phrase black time to draw attention to the fact that the risk of driving accidents (DA) is greater during the night than day in usually diurnally active persons. The 24 h temporal pattern in DA entails circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleep propensity, cognitive and physical performance, and behavior that are controlled, at least in part, by endogenous clocks. This opinion paper extends the concept of black time to reports of excess nighttime accidents and injuries of workers and nocturnal occurrence of certain man-caused catastrophes. We explore the chronobiology of work-related black time accidents and injuries taking into account laboratory and field investigations describing, respectively, circadian rhythms in cognitive performance and errors and mistakes by employees in the conduct of routine occupational tasks. Additionally, we present results of studies pertaining to 24 h patterns of both the number and relative risk (number of events per h/number of workers exposed per h) of work-related accidents (WRA) and injuries (WRI) as well as indices of performance and alertness of a self-selected homogenous survivor cohort of French firefighters (FFs) to explore two possible explanations of black time, namely, 24 h variation in sleep propensity/drossiness characterized by a nocturnal peak and circadian rhythms in cognitive performance characterized by a nocturnal trough. We propose the 24 h pattern of WRA and WRI, particularly of FFs and other highly skilled self-selected cohorts, is more strongly linked to circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleepiness than cognitive performance. Other possible explanations--suppressed expression of circadian rhythms and/or unmasking of ultradian periodicities in cognitive performance in specific circumstances, e.g., highly stressful work, competitive, or life-threatening settings, are also discussed. PMID:26181466

  3. Regional management of accidents risk level: strategy based on effective feedbacks

    Today the accidents prevention and environmental protection activity in Bashkortostan Republic is regulated by Governmental Programme including risk management as one of the main parts. The authors of the present paper accumulated some experience in risk management system creation because they took part in the investigations according to the mentioned Programme. Their proposal concerns this closed-loop system general structure which is planned to be based on three kinds of feedbacks: internal feedback (it utilizes the special Russian institutions for the plants state observation and limitation such 'Gosgortechnodzor', 'Gossanepidnadzor', etc...; all the noted institutions must be informed of the current situation and fulfill the actions oriented towards risk indices reduction); intermediate feedback (it is represented by the insurance system functioning with respect to insurance agencies investments into the plants operational security); external feedback (it includes the subsystem of HP security declarations analysis mechanism, special HP regional register and the expert commission whose decisions become the foundations for governmental responses). The authors consider all the feedbacks interaction in order to provide the stability of region development. The resulting strategy for accidents risk level management has been confirmed now by some normative documents in Bashkortostan Republic. (authors)

  4. Radiological accidents potentially important to human health risk in the U.S. Department of Energy waste management program

    Human health risks as a consequence of potential radiological releases resulting from plausible accident scenarios constitute an important consideration in the US Department of Energy (DOE) national program to manage the treatment, storage, and disposal of wastes. As part of this program, the Office of Environmental Management (EM) is currently preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) that evaluates the risks that could result from managing five different waste types. This paper (1) briefly reviews the overall approach used to assess process and facility accidents for the EM PEIS; (2) summarizes the key inventory, storage, and treatment characteristics of the various DOE waste types important to the selection of accidents; (3) discusses in detail the key assumptions in modeling risk-dominant accidents; and (4) relates comparative source term results and sensitivities

  5. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  6. [Method of ecological risk assessment for risk pollutants under short-term and high dose exposure in water pollution accident].

    Lei, Bing-Li; Sun, Yan-Feng; Liu, Qian; Yu, Zhi-Qiang; Zeng, Xiang-Ying

    2011-11-01

    In recent years, water pollution accidents resulting in acute aquatic ecological risk and security issues become a research focus. However, in our country, the surface water quality standards and drinking water health standards were used to determine the safety of waters or not in pollution incidents due to lacking safety effect threshold or risk value for protection of aquatic life. In foreign countries, although predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) or risk value (R) of pollutants were provided for protection of aquatic organisms, the PNECs or risk values were derived based on long-term exposure toxicity data NOECs (no observed effect concentrations) and lack of short-term exposure risk or threshold values. For the short-term and high dose exposure in pollution incident, ecological risk assessment methods were discussed according to the procedures of the conventional ecological risk assessment and the water quality criteria establishment of the U.S. EPA for the protection of aquatic organisms in short-term exposure, and had a case study. At the same time, we provide some suggestions for the establishment of ecological risk assessment system in water pollution incidents. PMID:22295619

  7. Based on Markov Chain of Agricultural Enterprise Risk Investment Profit Forecast Economic Model

    Ouyang Bin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Markov chain empirical prediction results of economic models based on agricultural enterprises, so as to avoid investment risks. Venture capital investment as a new investment tool, its earnings forecast method is better than the traditional finance investment prediction, which is more complex, more professional. This study constructs a risk investment based on Markov chain prediction of economic model, the fitting matrix method to estimate one-step transfer probability matrix. Finally taking Shaanxi Huasheng Group's actual earnings data as an example, a calculating example is given, which shows the effectiveness of the method. This study presents the economic model for the development of the venture capital industry has certain positive role.

  8. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents

    Christoudias, Theodoros; Proestos, Yiannis; Lelieveld, Jos

    2015-04-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We simulated atmospheric transport and decay, focusing on 137Cs and 131I as proxies for particulate and gaseous radionuclides, respectively. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes. We present risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations, deposition and doses to humans from the inhalation exposure of 131I. The estimated risks exhibit seasonal variability, with the highest surface level concentrations of gaseous radionuclides in the Northern Hemisphere during winter.

  9. Information and communication technologies, a tool for risk prevention and accident management on sea ice

    Elise Lépy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice melting topic is a repetitive phenomenon in alarmist speeches on climate change. The present positive evolution of air temperatures has in all probability many impacts on the environment and more or less directly on societies. Face to the temperature elevation, the ice pack is undergone to an important temporal variability of ice growth and melting. Human populations can be exposed to meteorological and ice hazards engendering a societal risk. The purpose of this paper is to better understand how ICT get integrated into the risk question through the example of the Bay of Bothnia in the northern extremity of the Baltic Sea. The study deals with the way that Finnish society, advanced in the ICT field, faces to new technology use in risk prevention and accident management on sea ice.

  10. Annual meeting on nuclear technology 1982. Technical meeting: Possibilities and effects of serious reactor accidents

    A critical examination of the forecast of a design basis accident, the view of the Sandia National Laboratory on the probability of a steam explosion after a core meltdown accident is comparison with WASH-1400, the possibilities of interactions with the containment structure and fission product release, as well as the influences for the assessment of risk in Germany taken from the analysis of core meltdown accidents are dealt with in these papers. (DG)

  11. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K. [Risk Communication Study Office, Japan Atomic Energy Agency 4-33 Muramatsu, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki, 319-1194 (Japan)

    2013-07-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.

  12. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety

  13. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers

    Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. Material and Methods: In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013–2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Results: Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.15–4.77, smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15–3.97, and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03–1.21. The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07–1.23 and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07–23.83 were the best predictors for odds (increased risk of road accidents. Conclusions: A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea – OSA. Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian

  14. UFOMOD - program to calculate the radiological consequences of reactor accidents within risk studies

    The FORTRAN-IV computer code UFOMOD calculates the radiological consequences of reactor accidents for risk studies, namely early deaths, latent cancer deaths and genetic significant doses. Different models for the atmospheric transport and deposition, the dose calculation, the countermeasures and the injuries are used to calculate individual and collective injury. Up to 54 radionuclides, 10 release categories, 4 meteorological zones, 10 population distributions per zone with up to 36 sectors and 50 rings, and 115 weather sequences per zone may be used. The deterministic results are combined together with the respective probabilities and frequencies to give complementary cumulative frequency distributions. This report describes the computer code and its input and output. (orig.)

  15. Risk factors related to systemic arterial hypertension in victims of cerebral vascular accident

    Joselany Áfio Caetano; Verineida Lima; Enedina Soares; Zélia Maria de Sousa Araújo Santos

    2006-01-01

    The Cerebrovascular accident (AVC)is the third cause of death in the world.Apart systemic arterial hypertension (HAS),many other preventable factors are related to its appearance and evolution.This study aimed at identifying the risk factors for AVC in interned hypertensive patients.It was a descriptive study held at a philanthropic hospital in Sobral-Ceará,with fourteen patients taken ill with AVC.Among those,85.7%(n=12)were above 65 years old and the same quantitative were retired;71,4%(n=1...

  16. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  17. Nuclear accidents

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  18. EXPRESS METHOD OF ESTIMATION OF THE POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL RISK IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS ON TRANSPORT

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The present research is aimed to the development of a method to assess the potential territorial risk in accidents on the railways, which takes into account the specificity of the chemically hazardous substances emission in emergency situations during their transportation. Methodology. The basis of the proposed method is numerical modeling of the transfer process is chemically dangerous substances in the atmosphere. The basis of the numerical model is the equation of convective-diffusion transfer of chemically hazardous substances. This equation takes into account the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances due to wind and atmospheric diffusion. For the numerical integration of the equations of transfer of chemically hazardous substances in the atmosphere is applied an implicit finite-difference scheme of splitting. Based on the constructed numerical model was developed method for the assessment of potential territorial risk and generated code in algorithmic language Fortran. The developed method of spatio-temporal risk assessment takes into account: the territorial probable weather situations; emission mode of chemically hazardous substances; emission power; the movement of the source of emission. A computational experiment to assess the level of air pollution above the village Sinelnikovo during the emergency leak of ammonia was conducted. Findings. The proposed method allows calculating quicklythe potential risk of the leakage of chemically hazardous substances on the basis of the calculation of the level of pollution in different meteosituation. The method allows determining the size of the zone of toxic casualties and assessing the level of risk of accidents in railway transport. Using the developed numerical model evaluated the assessment of risk of casualties in the residential area of the village Sinelnikovo. Originality. The scientists established the method for the assessment of potential territorial risk, based on

  19. Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

    Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

    1996-01-01

    In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

  20. Risk considerations in the domains of protections against major accidents in comparison with risk control for nuclear power plants

    Risk-based decision making in the control of major chemical hazards in Switzerland is presented and compared with new risk-based decision-making framework for Swiss nuclear power plants. The legal framework on which risk control of major chemical hazards is based in Switzerland is provided by article 10 of the 'Law Relating to the Protection of the Environment' (LPE, 1983) which deals with protection against disasters. Enforcement is based on the Ordinance on 'Protection against Major Accidents' (OMA, 1991) which was put into effect on April 1, 1991. OMA reflects well-established procedures in risk control, in particular those used in the Netherlands in the context of the environmental control policy. At the same time, OMA requires implementation of state-of-the-art safety technology in agreement with the German practice. It is compatible with the corresponding regulations of the European Union (EC Directive 96/82 [1996] and EC Directive 90/219 [1990]). Risk analysis and risk-informed decision making have a long tradition in the licensing and supervision of nuclear installations. Consequently, the new Swiss nuclear legislation that will come into force in 2005 makes explicit reference to risk. The Nuclear Energy Ordinance, the implementation rules for the Nuclear Energy Act, contains quantitative risk criteria for the safe operation of existing nuclear power plants and for the licensing of new ones. A preliminary outline of the decision-making scheme for risk control, to be published in the Regulatory Guides of the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK), is presented. The decision-making approach is then compared to the one used for the control of major chemical hazards. Finally, the paper contains some reflections on the use of risk-based regulatory approaches from the point of view of nuclear waste disposal. (author)

  1. Preparing patients to travel abroad safely. Part 4: Reducing risk of accidents, diarrhea, and sexually transmitted diseases.

    Thomas, R E

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To present evidence-based recommendations on traveling abroad safely so family physicians can advise travelers on how to reduce risk of accidents, diarrhea, and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and how to treat diarrhea themselves if medical care is unavailable. QUALITY OF EVIDENCE: A MEDLINE search from 1990 to November 1998 found 163 articles on travel and accidents, 504 on travel and diarrhea, and 42 on travel and STDs. Titles and abstracts were reviewed, and randomized cont...

  2. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  3. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea

    2001-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system.

  4. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  5. Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub.

    Thomas C Sauter

    Full Text Available There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes.This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression.Two hundred and eighty (280 patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235 patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9% and traumatic brain injury (TBI was detected in 28 patients (10%. Eight (8 of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15, (29.6% exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both.In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05, but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171.In patients

  6. Comparison of the Transportation Risks Resulting from Accidents during the Transportation of the Spent Fuel

    The safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable disposal of high level wastes and spent fuels is becoming a very important issue. The operational safety assessment of a repository including a transportation safety assessment is a fundamental part in order to achieve this goal. According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for spent fuels. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from the accidents during the transportation of spent fuels for these four transportation scenarios

  7. Research on risk communication after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    This report is about the risk communication cases that the author participated in after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The research aims to clarify the content of information that should be provided in risk communication and to develop a risk communication tool specifically designed for this purpose. The risk communication cases were explanatory meetings intended for the residents in Fukushima Prefecture and the advisory council on radiation health effects sponsored by Tochigi Prefecture. To clarify the kinds of information necessary to provide at such meetings, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 31 food sanitation inspectors using the Delphi method. A gaming simulation was used for the development of the communication tool. We used public disclosure materials at the meetings and the survey was conducted only among those whom we obtained written informed consent. The content regarding the radioactive substances in food which was found to be the most important for the consumers to learn was ''zero risk is impossible'' (84 points), followed by ''radioactive substances and other risks (e.g. smoking and excessive alcohol intake)'' (70 points). To develop the communication tool, we used ''Quartetto (card game)'' and the contents were such as ''daily life'', ''radioactive substances'', and ''measurement''. Considering the questions raised from the residents at the meetings, an information portal such as homepages did not provide clear information on how to evaluate risks by themselves. The results from the questionnaire survey shows that it is difficult to solve this matter unless the public learns to think about the risks of various matters on their own. The lack of experts will make it necessary for the local government officials to provide more information, and therefore training on risk communication is essential. We need to evaluate the Quartetto game and revise the content considering the audience. (author)

  8. APRI-7 Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. A progress report on research in the field of severe accidents in 2009-2011

    Knowledge of the phenomena that may occur during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant is an important prerequisite for being able to predict the plant behavior, in order to formulate procedures and instructions for incident handling, for contingency planning, and to get good quality at the accident analysis and risk studies. Since the early 80's nuclear power companies and authorities in Sweden has collaborated in research on severe reactor accidents. Cooperation in the beginning was mostly linked to strengthening the protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, in particular to develop systems for filtered depressurization of the reactor containment. Since the early 90's the cooperation has partially changed and shifted to the phenomenological questions of risk dominance. During the years 2009-2011, cooperation continued in the research-program APRI-7. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for accident management provides reasonable protection for the environment. This was done by gaining detailed knowledge of both important phenomena in the hearth melting behavior, and the amount of radioactivity that can be discharged to the surroundings during a severe accident. To achieve this aim, the research program has included a follow-up of international research in severe accidents and evaluation of results, and continued to support research at KTH and Chalmers Univ. of severe accidents. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has provided access to a wealth of information about various phenomena relevant to the events at severe accidents. This was important to obtain a good basis for assessment of abatement measures in the Swedish nuclear reactors. Continuing support to the Royal Inst. of Technology has provided increased knowledge about the ability to cool the molten core of the reactor vessel and the processes associated with cooling the

  9. On Risk Forecast and Risk Reduction of Tectonic Rock Bursts and Earthquakes

    Tazhibaev, Kushbakali

    2015-04-01

    Avershin, Shrepp, Kvochkin, Bojarkin and others observed that before strong rock bursts, considered as weak earthquakes, for several hours, sometimes for 2-5 days, there occurred spasmodic and sign-variable changes in deformations of rock massif adjacent areas. The works of seismologists Rikitaki, Asada, Isibasi, Matsuda, Saverensky, etc. describe a number of cases of an earthquake before which spasmodic and sign-variable deformations of earth's crust have been observed. The results of our own experimental research conducted during last decades show that abnormal spasmodic and sign-variable deformations are observed only in rocks having residual stresses. As a rule, these rocks at test after such abnormal deformations collapse dynamically, like explosions, and as a rule, such rocks represent dangerous rock bursts in deposits, located in seismically active areas (Tazhibaev K. Conditions of dynamic destruction of rocks and causes of rock bursts, Frunze 1989). It is necessary to notice that these spasmodic deformations are accompanied by formation and movement of internal discontinuities: dislocations, micro-cracks, and, hence, by redistribution of electric charges in a crystal lattice, and also in the rock as a whole. Redistribution and change in position of electric charges lead to the change of the natural electric potential and intensity of the magnetic field in the rocks massif. Before tectonic rock bursts and earthquakes together with abnormal changes of deformation, the same spasmodic and sign-variable changes of the natural electric and magnetic fields intensity occur. Based on the above-stated experimental findings, for solution of the problem of tectonic earthquakes forecast, we suggest placing the deformation measuring tool, the magnetic field intensity measuring tool and the device for measurement of natural electric potential along with seismic measurement into the seismic stations. Using abnormal, simultaneous changes of indications of all above listed

  10. Risk assessment of the thyroid cancer within the problem of radiation protection for the reactor accidents

    Buglova, E. [Research Clinical Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Misk (Belarus)

    2000-05-01

    Low doses of radiation and the protection of the thyroid gland is one of the most important issues at the early stage of the accident. In addition to the existing experience, the Chernobyl data obtained in Belarus could provide a new information to protect the human thyroid in the case of the reactor accident. The majority of Belarusian territory was contaminated with I-131 with density of contamination ranged from 0.4 to 37 MBq/sq.m. In response to the Chernobyl accident, several types of protective actions to decrease exposure of the thyroid were taken in Belarus. However, Implementation of most of the protective actions was delayed by days. Low efficiency of thyroid gland protection lead to the formation of avoidable thyroid doses and, as a consequence, to the development of radiation-induced thyroid cancer. These cancers are being seen among the population living near the plant and also among people who were living at a considerable distance. The effectiveness of protective actions for thyroid was assessed by the analysis of registered thyroid cancer cases under the framework of risk assessment. The cohort of Belarusian population under 18 years old at the time of the accident was studied. Those who were living within 100 km from the NPP received the highest thyroid doses. The recent IAEA generic intervention level for thyroid blocking was exceeded in this group and also for the people who were living up to 400 km from the reactor. Among the population of the mentioned age group for contaminated Gomel and Brest regions within 100 km from the NPP, the average annual incidence rate of thyroid cancer during 1991-1997 is 31,0 per 10{sup 5}; from 100 to 200 km -10,9; from 200 to 300 km - 13.5; from 300 to 400 km - 3.3; more than 400 km - 1,6 per 10{sup 5}. These incidence rates are higher than background level and show the necessity of thyroid protection from uptake of radioiodine at great distance from the accident. This approach was not used before the Chernobyl

  11. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the

  12. Agricultural drought risk monitoring and yield loss forecast with remote sensing data

    Nagy, Attila; Tamás, János; Fehér, János

    2015-04-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP) have launched a joint Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) to improve monitoring and prevention of droughts. In the frame of this project this study focuses on identification of agricultural drought characteristics and elaborates a monitoring method (with application of remote sensing data), which could result in appropriate early warning of droughts before irreversible yield loss and/or quality degradation occur. The spatial decision supporting system to be developed will help the farmers in reducing drought risk of the different regions by plant specific calibrated drought indexes. The study area was the Tisza River Basin, which is located in Central Europe within the Carpathian Basin. For the investigations normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used calculated from 16 day moving average chlorophyll intensity and biomass quantity data. The results offer concrete identification of remote sensing and GIS data tools for agricultural drought monitoring and forecast, which eventually provides information on physical implementation of drought risk levels. In the first step, we statistically normalized the crop yield maps and the MODIS satellite data. Then the drought-induced crop yield loss values were classified. The crop yield loss data were validated against the regional meteorological drought index values (SPI), the water management and soil physical data. The objective of this method was to determine the congruency of data derived from spectral data and from field measurements. As a result, five drought risk levels were developed to identify the effect of drought on yields: Watch, Early Warning, Warning, Alert and Catastrophe. In the frame of this innovation such a data link and integration, missing from decision process of IDMP, are established, which can facilitate the rapid spatial and temporal monitoring of meteorological, agricultural drought phenomena and its

  13. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Approach for Wave Energy Converters Taking Weather Forecast Uncertainties into Account

    Ambühl, Simon; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    to the device for operation and maintenance actions. This article focusses on a risk-based inspection and maintenance planning approach involving minimization of the overall repair costs including costs due to lost electricity production. The study includes real weather data and damage accumulation as well...... as uncertainties related with imperfect weather forecasts, costs, structural damage accumulation, inspection accuracy and the applied maintenance strategies. This article contains a case study where the risk-based maintenance strategy is applied for the Wavestar device....

  14. Special committee review of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's severe accident risks report (NUREG--1150)

    In April 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) published a draft report ''Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants,'' NUREG-1150. This report updated, extended and improved upon the information presented in the 1974 ''Reactor Safety Study,'' WASH-1400. Because the information in NUREG-1150 will play a significant role in implementing the NRC's Severe Accident Policy, its quality and credibility are of critical importance. Accordingly, the Commission requested that the RES conduct a peer review of NUREG-1150 to ensure that the methods, safety insights and conclusions presented are appropriate and adequately reflect the current state of knowledge with respect to reactor safety. To this end, RES formed a special committee in June of 1989 under the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. The Committee, composed of a group of recognized national and international experts in nuclear reactor safety, was charged with preparing a report reflecting their review of NUREG-1150 with respect to the adequacy of the methods, data, analysis and conclusions it set forth. The report which precedes reflects the results of this peer review

  15. Cancer risks in the Kaluga oblast of the Russian Federation 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    Cancer morbidity and mortality were studied in areas of the Kaluga oblast contaminated with radionuclides. The main objective of the study was to assess the influence of radiation exposure on existing levels of cancer morbidity and mortality. Time trends and relative population risks were analysed. Based on this analysis, it was concluded that the current levels of morbidity from cancers among the populations residing in the studied areas were primarily a result of a complex of factors which predated the exposure from the Chernobyl accident. However, there seems to be an unfavourable trend concerning malignant neoplasms of the respiratory organs for women residing in the contaminated areas. To date, no statistically significant effect of radiation on cancer morbidity (except for thyroid cancer in women) has been noted. The levels of cancer morbidity and mortality in the contaminated areas generally reflect the changes in cancer incidence in the oblast as a whole. The findings are consistent with international data on latent periods for the induction of radiogenic cancers and the biological effects for similar levels of exposure to populations residing in contaminated territories. Further studies are necessary in order to monitor possible effects that are related to the accident. (orig.)

  16. Molecular alterations in childhood thyroid cancer after Chernobyl accident and low-dose radiation risk

    The linear no-threshold (LNT) model of radiation carcinogenesis has been used for evaluating the risk from radiation exposure. While the epidemiological studies have supported the LNT model at doses above 100 mGy, more uncertainties are still existed in the LNT model at low doses below 100 mGy. Thus, it is urged to clarify the molecular mechanisms underlying radiation carcinogenesis. After the Chernobyl accident in 1986, significant amount of childhood thyroid cancer has emerged in the children living in the contaminated area. As the incidence of sporadic childhood thyroid cancer is very low, it is quite evident that those cancer cases have been induced by radiation exposure caused mainly by the intake of contaminated foods, such as milk. Because genetic alterations in childhood thyroid cancers have extensively been studied, it should provide a unique chance to understand the molecular mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis. In a current review, molecular signatures obtained from the molecular studies of childhood thyroid cancer after Chernobyl accident have been overviewed, and new roles of radiation exposure in thyroid carcinogenesis will be discussed. (author)

  17. Atmospheric modeling of radioactive material dispersion and health risk in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants accident

    Highlights: ► The radioactive concentrations are treated as dynamical values. ► A possible nuclear accident is simulated for the prediction of atmospheric contaminations. ► The dangerous situations caused by radioisotope release could be announced to the public. ► In the future studies, some other variables are can be considered. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated in terms of the radioactive concentrations. The risk of the radioactive hazard material is important with respect to the public health. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences, whereby the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan is modeled. The multiplications effects of the wind values and plume concentrations are obtained. Monte Carlo calculations are performed for wind speed and direction. In Seoul and Pusan, Korea, the Cs-137 has the highest value among the chemical radioactive materials Cs-137, I-131, and Sr-90. The time for highest concentration is shown to be around 48th hour in Seoul and 12th hour in Pusan. Cesium has the highest value in both cities, and iodine has the lowest value in both cities. The wind is assumed to determine the direction of movement. Therefore, the real values are believed to be lower than the calculated results. This modeling could be used for other industrial accident cases in chemical plants

  18. MADYMO simulation of children in cycle accidents: a novel approach in risk assessment.

    McNally, D S; Rosenberg, N M

    2013-10-01

    Head injuries are a significant cause of death and injury to child cyclists both on and off the road. Current evaluations of the effectiveness of cycle helmets rely on simplified mechanical testing or the analysis of aggregated accident statistics. This paper presents a direct evaluation of helmet efficacy by using computational modelling to simulate a range of realistic accident scenarios, including loss of control, collision with static objects and vehicle impact. A 6-year-old cyclist was modelled (as a Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy), in addition to a typical children's bicycle and a vehicle using the MADYMO dynamics software package. Simulations were performed using ranges of cyclist position, cycle speed and vehicle speed with and without a helmet that meets current standards. Wearing a cycle helmet was found to reduce the probability of head injuries, reducing the average probability of fatality over the scenarios studied from 40% to 0.3%. Similarly, helmet wearing reduced the probability of neck injuries (average probability of fatality reduced from 11% to 1%). There was no evidence that helmet wearing increased the severity of brain or neck injuries caused by rotational accelerations; in fact these were slightly reduced. Similarly, there was no evidence that increased cycling speed, such as might result from helmet related risk compensation, increased the probability of head injury. PMID:23954681

  19. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  20. Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

    Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

  1. Liability and insurance of nuclear accident risk the swiss regulation in perspective

    In this paper we argue that compulsory insurance of nuclear liability should be extended. Most countries have explicit limitations of operators' liability, which also lie at the heart of international conventions. Moreover, there are implicit limitations imposed by operators' inability to pay where unlimited and strict liability applies. These limitations result in static and dynamic inefficiencies because they allow nuclear plant operators to eschew the risk costs of a severe nuclear accident. Extension of compulsory insurance, however, will exacerbate problems of market failure in insurance: National insurance pools have monopolized the business and are expected to exercise market power. Furthermore, their capacity may fall short of required coverage. Bringing in capital market investors can alleviate these problems. Nuclear liability insurance data from Switzerland provides statistical evidence in support of our main points. (authors)

  2. [Safety value of contaminant in water pollution accident based on human health risk].

    Zheng, Bing-Hui; Luo, Jin-Hong; Fu, Qing; Qin, Yan-Wen; Hu, Lin-Lin

    2012-02-01

    The acute human health risk assessment of contaminant in water pollution accident is a new study field of environmental sciences. This study established a model for calculating acute safety value of contaminant in water pollutant. The acute safety value of contaminant in mainly water pollution during 2000-2010 was calculated by this model. The safety value of sodium cyanide, cadmium, formaldehyde, ammonia, toluene, nitrobenzene, microcystin-LR were 0.1, 0.6, 8, 20, 6, 0.07, 0.004 mg x L(-1), respectively. The differences of safety value calculate methods between acute and chronic exposure were compared from the following aspects, the toxicology exposure end-point, allocation of intake, exposure sensitive subpopulation. PMID:22509564

  3. Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk

    This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

  4. Thyroid cancer risk following radiation exposure in childhood and adolescence from the Chernobyl accident

    A population based case-control study of thyroid cancer in young people has been curried out in the most contaminated regions of Belarus (Gomel and Mogilev) and Russia (Bryansk, Kagula, Orel and Tula). the study was jointly co-ordinated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the Sasakawa Memorial Health Foundation (SMHF). The study population was all those living in these regions who were aged 0-14 at the time of the accident in Belarus and 0-18 in Russia. Cases were recruited over the time period 1992-1998. Two sets of controls were matched to each case-one was matched finely on age at exposure, sex and exact settlement of residence at the time of the accident, the second was matched on age and sex in the same manner but more broadly on region of residence. In all, 301 cases and 1948 controls (489 matched on settlement and 1459 on oblast) were recruited into the study. The majority of subjects are from Belarus. Information was collected on study subjects using a detailed questionnaire, completed by a clinical and ultrasound examination and analyses of blood and urine samples of subjects who consented in donating such samples. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer related to exposure to I-131 in childhood and adolescence and the role of environmental and host factors that may modify radiation induced thyroid cancer risk. These include age at exposure, iodine intake, genetic background and reproductive history. Individual radiation dose from 131I, and associated uncertainty, was estimated for each subject, as well as dose from external exposures and intake of long-lived nuclides. Each subject was also assigned an index of possible exposure to short-lived iodine and tellurium isotopes. Descriptive analyses showed that risk of thyroid cancer in this study was significantly associated with a number of factor that are likely to reflect potential of exposure. Cases in Belarus tended to live more frequently in rural

  5. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A packages

    An assessment and evaluation of the potential radiological risks of transport accidents involving Type A package shipments by road have been performed by five EU Member States, France, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis involved collection and analysis of information on a national basis related to the type, volume, and characteristics of Type A package consignments, the associated radioactive traffic, and the expected frequency and consequences of potential vehicular road transport accidents. It was found that the majority of Type A packaged radioactive material shipments by road is related to applications of non-special form radioactive material, i.e. radiopharmaceuticals, radiochemicals etc., in medicine, research, and industry and special form material contained in radiography and other radiation sources, e.g. gauging equipment. The annual volumes of Type A package shipments of radiopharmaceuticals and radiochemicals by road differ considerably between the participating EU Member States from about 12,000 Type A packages in Sweden to about 240,000 in the Netherlands. The broad range reflects to a large extent the supply of radioactive material for the national populations and the production and distribution operations prevailing in the participating EU Member States (some are producer countries, others are not!). Very few standard package designs weighing from about 1-25 kg are predominant in Type A package shipments in all participating countries. Type A packages contain typically a range of radioactivity from a few mega becquerels to a few tens of giga becquerels, the average package activity contents is in terms of fractions of A2 about 0.01, i.e. about one hundredth of a Type A package contents limits. Based on a probabilistic risk assessment method it has been concluded that the expected frequencies of occurrence of vehicular road transport accidents with the potential to result in an environmental release - including radiologically

  6. Thyroid cancer risk in Ukrainian and Belarusian areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    Full text of publication follows: The purpose of the present study is to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data are analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-85 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response is 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 104 PY-Gy, for the quadratic coefficient it is -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 104 PY-Gy2. The EAR is assessed to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreases with age at exposure and increases with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response is 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy-1, for the quadratic coefficient it is -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy-2. The ERR is assessed to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreases strongly with age at exposure. Both, EAR and ERR, are higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures. (authors)

  7. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events.

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-08-17

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units. PMID:17276591

  8. Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

    General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

  9. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions

    Ivan, K.; I. HAIDU; J. BENEDEK; S. M. Ciobanu

    2015-01-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, low-light conditions significantly influence the frequency of traffic accidents in an urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low-light conditions on traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The dependence degree between light and the number of traffic accidents was analysed using the Pearson correlation, and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the light conditio...

  10. 基于事故发展与控制的隐患分级方法%Risk Classification Method for Accident Potential Based on Development and Control Measures of Accident

    赵东风; 申玉琪; 赵志强; 张佑明; 孟亦飞

    2012-01-01

    For the purpose of making the management of accident potential more scientific, the relationship between accident potential and accident was discussed and studied. The fundamental property of accident potential was brought forward that it can make the accident happen or develop. The mechanism whereby accident potential functions in the accident was revealed clearly, by predicting the impelling and inhibiting factors in the accident process. The accident potential was classified into two types (the first type of accident potential and the second type of accident potential) according to the different time they work. In the risk assessment, the problem of specific accident potential grading was resolved. By introducing the assessment indexes of accident potential exposure frequency, possibility of other factors, corrective actions, the initial value of the consequences of the accident, the correction factor of personnel protection, the correction factor of personnel exposure, the correction factor of emergency measures, the correction factor of property loss, an assessment index system was established. By calculating the risk of accident potential-causing accident, the real risk of accident potential was assessed.%为使隐患管理工作更加科学,对隐患与事故的关系进行研讨,提出隐患的根本属性是能够促使事故发生或发展.通过预估促使和控制(阻碍)事故发展的因素,来揭示隐患在事故过程中的作用机制.根据发生作用的时间将隐患分为第1类隐患和第2类隐患.在风险评估过程中,解决了具体隐患风险分级的问题,提出隐患暴露频率、其他条件的可能性、隐患纠正系数、事故后果初始分值、人员防护修正系数、人员暴露修正系数、应急处理与事故控制修正系数和财产损失修正系数等评价指标.通过隐患致因事故风险的计算,评估隐患的最终风险.

  11. Questions concerning safety and risk after the nuclear accidents in Japan. Deepened accident analysis for the Fukushima Daiichi power plant; Sicherheits- und Risikofragen im Nachgang zu den nuklearen Stoer- und Unfaellen in Japan. Vertiefte Ereignisanalyse zur Anlage Fukushima-Daini

    Pistner, Christoph; Englert, Matthias [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2015-02-25

    The study questions concerning safety and risk in Japanese power plants following the disastrous nuclear accident covers the following issues: the nuclear facility Fukushima Daiichi, site characterization, important technical equipment, important electro-technical equipment, personal; description of the accident progression in the Fukushima nuclear power plant: impact of the earthquake, impact of the tsunami, short-term measures of the operating personnel, pressure and temperature situation in the containments, restoration of the after-heat cooling system in the units 1/2 and 4, fuel element storage pool, summarized parameters during the accident progress; comparative analysis of the accident progression at the Fukushima Daiichi site.

  12. The researches of I.P.S.N. in criticality from the risk prevention to the accident study

    The researches made by I.P.S.N. in the field of prevention of the criticality risk turn on: the development and the qualification of calculation tools; the expertise in technical help of the I.P.S.N. units in charge of safety evaluations of facilities and transport of fissile matter; studies of criticality to the demand of operators and facilities managers; researches in order to extend the knowledge in matter of criticality. The second part of this report concerns the study of criticality accidents themselves. The objectives of these studies is to bring elements and knowledge relative to the criticality excursions and their consequences on the personnel and environment. The knowledge of these accidents is necessary to deepen the evaluation of the installations safety, to optimize the detection and to prepare an intervention. A table gives the criticality accidents from 1945 to 1999 in the world with, the date, the exposure, the total number of fission, the accident historic, the characteristics of the fissile matter and a summary of the accident. The last part relates the Tokai MURA criticality accident. (N.C.)

  13. Severe accident risk minimization studies for the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor plant at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    This paper discusses salient aspects of severe accident related phenomenological considerations, scoping studies, and mitigative design features being studied for incorporation into a high-power research reactor plant. Key results of scoping studies on steam explosions, recriticality, core-concrete interactions, and containment transport are highlighted. Evolving design features of the containment are described. Containment response calculations for a site-suitability basis transient are presented that demonstrate acceptable source term values and superior containment performance. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) will be a new user facility for all kinds of neutron research, centered around a research reactor of unprecedented neutron beam flux. A defense-in-depth philosophy has been adopted. In response to this commitment, ANS Project management initiated severe accident analysis and related technology development early-on in the design phase itself. This was done to aid in designing a sufficiently robust containment for retention and controlled release of radionuclides in the event of such an accident. It also provides a means for satisfying on- and off-site regulatory requirements, accident-related dose exposures, and containment response and source-term best-estimate analyses for level-2 and -3 Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRAs) that will be produced. Moreover, it will provide the best possible understanding of the ANS under severe accident conditions and consequently provide insights for the development of strategies and design philosophies for accident mitigation, management, and emergency preparedness efforts

  14. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Pierre Philip

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents.A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents.As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05. The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05, 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05, 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05, and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05. Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents.Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  15. A STUDY ON PREVALENCE OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND ITS RISK FACTORS IN JHANSI AND AROUND JHANSI CITY (U . P .

    Sanjeev Kumar

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Expansion in network, motorization and urbanization in the country has been accompanied by a rise in road accidents leading to road traffic injuries (RTIs. Accident represents a major epidemic of non - communicable disease in present century. OBJECTIVE: To study the prevalence of Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs and its risk factors in Jhansi & around Jhansi city. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A hospital based cross sectional study was carried out in MLB Medical College and Hospital , Jhansi and the cases sustaining ro ad traffic injuries registering from 1 January 2013 to 31 July 2014 were taken irrespective of the place of accident. The data was entered in excel sheet and results were expressed as proportions and percentages. RESULTS: Among them maximum number of cases were in 21 - 30 years age group (30.53% followed by 31 - 40 years (21.66% and >60 years (4.65% shows the least no. of victims. In the study majority of cases were reported from Orchha Road (11.5%. In the study it was observed that majority of accidents oc cur in winter season (37.24% and in night time (34.47%.Among them 19.68% victims stated that defective road as the most common condition associated with RTA followed by poor lighting (18.54%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study majority of victims were younger, males, less educated and labourer by occupation. Among risk factors defective roads, poor lighting, excessive speed, overloading and alcohol consumption were found causing RTAs.

  16. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China

    Huang, Lei; Ying ZHOU; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K.; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public’s attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis ...

  17. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research. PMID:25997167

  18. Assessment of accident risk among elderly in domestic environment: A cross-sectional study in rural south Karnataka, India

    Radha Y Aras

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geriatric population is vulnerable to domestic accidents. Safety-related provisions/behavior in domestic environment can reduce the risk of accidents. Aim and Objective: To know the safety practices followed at home by people above 60 years age and to assess few epidemiological factors associated with their risk of domestic accident. Study Design: A community-based cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: Using Lot Quality Technique, 135 elderly (out of 196; at 7% desired level of accuracy, 95% desired confidence level, willing to participate, were interviewed for their practices towards accident prevention. Observations were made regarding safety provisions within homes. The data was recorded in predesigned, pre-tested, semi-structured proformas, based on Home Safety Checklist Tool. Statistical Analysis Used: SPSS package version 17. Fisher′s Exact test applied for statistical significance of factors related to accident risk in domestic environment. Results: Elderly from joint families significantly keep passage of bedroom to bathroom free from obstacles, telephone cords away from walking area and use stool to reach high cupboard (P < 0.0005. In nuclear families, stairway was kept adequately lighted (P < 0.05. Literate elderly put away things back to its place after using, walk in room without obstacles, keep soap reachable during bath, keep stairways in good condition, use doormats to wipe feet (P < 0.05. Habit of not cleaning up spills (85.2%, walking on wet floor (60.7%, and no grab bars in bathrooms (53.3% were observed. Conclusion: Provision and use of home safety measures/practices with needful awareness and attitude are important to prevent domestic accidents amongst elderly.

  19. 0BOccupational Risk Factors in Iranian Professional Drivers and their Impacts on Traffic Accidents

    MEHDI JAHANGIRI

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available   In many countries road crashes are the main cause of fatal accidents related to job. The aim of our study was to characterize a population of Iranian professional drivers with regard to history of drivers’ road crash incidents and some occupational factors. Using Swedish version of the Nordic Questionnaire information about musculoskeletal pain prevalence in last 12 months, demographic features, smoking habits, age, job experience, road crash, job consent, self-perceived job stress, working load and fatigue were obtained from 403 drivers. Ninety seven (25% of the study population reported having one or more traffic accident during their driving job history. The association between self-report incident of road crash and driving duration, smoking, lack of exercise, fatigue, lack of health education and musculoskeletal complaints were statistically significant(p<0.05. Data analysis also revealed positive significant association between fatigue as dependent variable and driving duration, self perceived stress and lack of job consent as independent variables (p<0.01. The questionnaire data indicated that signs of fatigue in smoker drivers, old drivers (>50 years, high experienced drivers (>10 years, drivers without sport activities, night drivers, fat and over weighted drivers, old vehicle drivers (age of vehicle >10 years, bus and truck drivers were more than other groups of professional drivers but the differences were not significant. It can be said that occupational risk factors influence the safe operation of drivers. However, prevention strategies such as organizational changes for reducing work-related stress, recording and analysis of road incidents, national health and safety law for drivers are needed.

  20. Chemical spill model (CHEMMAP) for forecasts/hindcasts and environmental risk assessment

    CHEMMAP is a newly developed three-dimensional, chemical spill model that is used to predict the trajectory and fate of a wide variety of chemical products including floating, sinking, soluble and insoluble chemicals and product mixtures. The model, which was developed by Applied Science Associates Inc., also provides a powerful quantitative tool for estimating the potential impacts of chemical releases. The model incorporates the following components: (1) simulation of the initial release for surface and subsurface spills, (2) slick spreading, transport and entrainment of floating materials, (3) transport of dissolved and particulate materials in three dimensions, (4) evaporation and volatilization, (5) dissolution and adsorption, (6) sedimentation and resuspension, and (7) degradation. The fate of chemical spills are predicted by analyzing physical-chemical properties such as density, vapor pressure, water solubility, environmental degradation rates, adsorbed/dissolved partitioning coefficients, viscosity and surface tension. The distribution of chemicals on the water surface, on shorelines, in the water column and in the sediments can also be estimated. The model can separately track surface slicks, entrained droplets or particles of pure chemical, chemical adsorbed to suspended particulates, and dissolved chemicals. It can be used for forecasting expected water concentrations and atmospheric flux for real events and stochastic applications for ecological risk assessment of chemical spills associated with oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. 16 refs., 4 tabs., 16 figs

  1. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  2. Evaluation and communication of potential risk of radionuclide contamination of foods after Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    A large scale nuclear power plant accident happened after the great earthquake with a huge tsunami in the Eastern part of Japan in March 2011. Potential risk from radionuclide contamination in foods after the nuclear power plant accident was estimated using data of radiological food contamination from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Data analyzed by combining nuclide, food, level of radiation detection, period, age-classified population, were compared to provisional index levels of radionuclides, and existing contamination levels in food by natural radioactive potassium. Health risk was shown to be very low or negligible considering presence of background radiological exposure from foods and the environment. Appropriate explanation of risk to various stakeholders of the society is imperative and results of trials were reported. (author)

  3. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary

    The Reactor Safety Study was sponsored by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to estimate the public risks that could be involved in potential accidents in commercial nuclear power plants of the type now in use. It was performed under the independent direction of Professor Norman C. Rasmussen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The risks had to be estimated, rather than measured, because although there are about 50 such plants now operating, there have been no nuclear accidents to date resulting in significant releases of radioactivity in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The objective of the study was to make a realistic estimate of these risks and, to provide perspective, to compare them with non-nuclear risks to which our society and its individuals are already exposed. This information may be of help in determining the future reliance by society on nuclear power as a source of electricity. The results from this study suggest that the risks to the public from potential accidents in nuclear power plants are comparatively small

  4. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low lighting conditions

    K. Ivan; I. HAIDU; J. BENEDEK; Ciobanu, S. M.

    2015-01-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, the low lighting conditions significantly influence the frequency of the traffic accidents in the urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low lighting conditions on the traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca. The dependence degree between lighting and the number of traffic accidents was analyzed by the Pearson's correlation and the relation between the spatial distributio...

  5. Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado.

    Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Bostrom, Ann; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Lazrus, Heather

    2015-11-01

    Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision-focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals' perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others' decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system-wide management of uncertainty in decisions. PMID:25988286

  6. Colloquium / Preparation for nuclear post-accident. Citizens and local authorities involvement in major risks governance - proceedings

    During 40 years, France has chosen nuclear energy as main energy source for power generation. Today, nuclear energy covers 80% of the French electricity needs. For this reason, in France, each inhabitant lives at less than 200 km of a nuclear power plant. The September 11, 2001 terror attack has led to reconsider the nuclear risk in terms of security. In 2005, the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) has been entrusted with the preparation of a nuclear post-accident management study. This study has been mainly based on the experience feedback of the Chernobyl accident and on the dialogue with different actors of the French territory: the local authorities, the habitants, the associations and the health, environment and education actors. This colloquium represents the opening act of the joint elaboration of the management of a potential nuclear accident at the region scale. The colloquium was organized around 5 round tables: 1 - Did the nuclear safety transparency law change the situation?; 2 - Examples of pluralistic dialogues: the long-term management of a nuclear accident; 3 - How to encourage the necessary skills development of citizens? 4 - Regional development strategies in terms of nuclear risks management (incidents, effluents, wastes, transports..); 5 - New territory liabilities and citizens' legitimate aspiration in terms of health/environment: building something together. This document is the proceedings of this colloquium. It reports the exchanges between the participants

  7. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  8. Role of risk assessment: risk-informed regulations and requirements for severe accident and risk assessment research

    The licensing procedures of nuclear power plants in the Western world, because of their historical development, are based on determinstic approaches incorporating extremely conservative assumptions about risk assessment. The advanced development and application of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) has broadened the range of aspects under which to evaluate the risk and risk factors for nuclear power plants. Both for regulatory authorities and for plant operators, PSA pinpoint the relevance of risk factors, thus allowing the factors to be taken into account to be assigned higher priority, while secondary factors are given lower priority. Licensing procedures more and more are seen to include PSA and PSA findings. However, there is still need for more research and increased application in this field. (orig.)

  9. Assessment of risk due to vehicle accident for the plutonium solution transfer from H-area to F-area

    Transporting radioactive material onsite (intrasite transfers) via truck or train must be performed in a safe manner. Adequate safety is assured for each transfer, as documented in the corresponding Onsite Safety Assessment (OSA). One aspect of the OSA is to show that the package to be used for the transfer meets onsite acceptance criteria. The activity being analyzed in this report is the movement of plutonium solution with greater than 20 curies, all reasonable mitigative controls will be implemented to minimize the likelihood of an accidental release, and a probabilistic analysis will be used to evaluate the risk associated with the move. The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of risk due to vehicle accident associated with transporting plutonium solution from H-area to F-area. Included in the report is a list of the required mitigative controls which reduce the predicted accident and release frequencies to those reported in the summary

  10. Nuclear industry and the management of accident risk in Europe: from the internalisation default to the coverage organization

    The production of nuclear energy creates environmental and sanitary risks among which the risk of nuclear accident. There is a twofold dimension in the management of such a risk: a preventive dimension and a compensatory one. Given its catastrophic and unpredictable character, the nuclear risk has always been managed in a specific way. In Europe, its management is unsatisfactory. The civil liability regime is beneficial to the nuclear industry as it leads to a lack of internalisation and thus to a limited coverage of potential damages. The financial cap of the nuclear operator's civil liability reduces his incentives for the prevention of accidents. By narrowing its liability, it also limits the burden tied to the coverage of the full potential damages. The organisation of the nuclear risk coverage was heavily conditioned by the civil liability regime and the financial cap it creates. Such an organisation is inefficient. The nuclear insurance market's financial capacity is not enough to compensate for all the potential victims of a major nuclear accident. Moreover, the functioning of this market is quite costly for the nuclear operator. While new electronuclear projects are being launched in Europe, the management of nuclear risks must be questioned in order to find better solutions to the necessity of internalising, preventing and compensating. Nuclear operators should be responsible for all the damages caused through an unlimited liability rule. The coverage of potential damages could also be improved by setting up a risk-sharing agreement at the European scale between operators. (author)

  11. Stress, Fatigue, Health and Risk of Road Traffic Accidents Among Professional Drivers: The Contribution of Physical Inactivity.

    Taylor, Adrian H; Dorn, Lisa

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Strategies to achieve ambitious targets for reducing road accidents (34) have largely focused on engineering and technological advancements, the modification of occupational demands, and, to a lesser extent, human factors. These factors include stress and psychological states; sleep, fatigue, and alertness; and health status. Physical activity appears to influence all these human factors but has not previously been systematically considered as a direct or indirect risk factor for d...

  12. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry–general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010–...

  13. Discharge forecasting using MODIS and radar altimetry: potential application for transboundary flood risk management in Niger-Benue River basin

    Tarpanelli, Angelica; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is one of most widespread natural disasters in the world. Its impact is particularly severe and destructive in Asia and Africa, because the living conditions of some settlements are inadequate to cope with this type of natural hazard. In this context, the estimation of discharge is extremely important to address water management and flood risk assessment. However, the inadequate monitoring network hampers any control and prediction activity that could improve these disastrous situations. In the last few years, remote sensing sensors have demonstrated their effectiveness in retrieving river discharge, especially in supporting discharge nowcasting and forecasting activities. Recently, the potential of radar altimetry was apparent when used for estimating water levels in an ungauged river site with good accuracy. It has also become a very useful tool for estimation and prediction of river discharge. However, the low temporal resolution of radar altimeter observations (10 or 35 days, depending on the satellite mission) may be not suitable for day-by-day hydrological forecasting. Differently, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), considering its proven potential for quantifying the variations in discharge of the rivers at daily time resolution may be more suited to this end. For these reasons, MODIS and radar altimetry data were used in this study to predicting and forecasting the river discharge along the Niger-Benue River, where severe flooding with extensive damage to property and loss of lives occurred. Therefore, an effective method to forecast flooding can support efforts towards creating an early warning system. In order to estimate river discharge, four MODIS products (daily, 8-day, and from AQUA and TERRA satellites) connected at three sites (two gauged and one ungauged) were used. The capability of remote sensing sensors to forecast discharge a few days in advance at a downstream section using MODIS and ENVISAT radar altimetry data

  14. Hydrogen management and the metamorphosis of NRC policy on severe nuclear accident risk

    From the early days of light water reactor developments, it was understood that, following a loss-of-coolant accident, hydrogen could accumulate inside the primary reactor containment as a result of: (1) metal-water reaction involving the fuel element cladding; (2) the radiolytic decomposition of the water in the reactor core and the containment sump; (3) the corrosion of certain construction materials by some spray solutions; and (4) possible synergistic effects of chemical, thermal and radiolytic by-products of accidents on containment protective coatings and electric cable insulation. The NRC's policy decisions regarding hydrogen management prior to and in light of the TMI-2 loss of coolant accident are discussed

  15. Backtesting Value-at-Risk using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons, a Comment on the Forecast Rationality Tests of A.J. Patton and A. Timmermann

    Hoogerheide, L.F.; Ravazzolo, F.; van Dijk

    2011-01-01

    textabstractPatton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a regression that only involves (long-horizon and short-horizon) forecasts and no observations on the target variable. We propose an extension, a simulation-based procedure that takes into account th...

  16. The development and application of the accident dynamic simulator for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    This paper describes the principal modelling concepts, practical aspects, and an application of the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) developed for full scale dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) of nuclear power plants. Full scale refers not only to the size of the models, but also to the number of potential sequences which should be studied. Plant thermal-hydraulics behaviour, safety systems response, and operator interactions are explicitly accounted for as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. ADS uses discrete dynamic event trees (D-DET) as the main accident scenario modelling approach, and introduces computational techniques to minimize the computer memory requirement and expedite the simulation. An operator model (including procedure-based behaviour and several types of omission and commission errors) and a thermal-hydraulic model with a PC run time more than 300 times faster than real accident time are among the main modules of ADS. To demonstrate the capabilities of ADS, a dynamic PRA of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture event of a US nuclear power plant is analyzed

  17. Risk reduction category (RRC-A) accident studies in the safety analysis report of the EPR trademark reactor

    Poehlmann, M.; Bleher, G.; Ismaier, A.; Knoll, A.; Levi, P.; Garcia, E. Vera; Schels, A.; Seitz, H.; Lima Campos, L. [AREVA GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is considered in the safety demonstration of nuclear reactors in addition to design basis operating conditions (Plant Condition Category, PCC), in order to analyze with a risk reduction approach any operating conditions with multiple failures. As extending the operating conditions of the plant 'beyond design basis', the Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is also denoted as Design Extension Condition (DEC-A). In the German licensing framework, the RRCA (or DEC-A) transients correspond to safety assessment level '4b' of the 'Sicherheitsanforderungen an Kernkraftwerke' (Safety Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants), Az. RS I 5 - 13303/01 of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. These RRC-A (or DEC-A) operating conditions require specific design provisions (implemented by manual or automatic action), known as RRC-A measures, intended to render consequences of accumulated failures admissible. In contrast, RRC-B constitute severe accidents that lead to core melt. Identification of RRC-A operating conditions and corresponding RRC-A measures is based on the use of results of probabilistic safety assessments. After the Fukushima accident the RRC-A accidents like Station Black Out (SBO) or Loss of Ultimate Heat Sink (LUHS) are of particular interest in the safety assessment of nuclear new builds. In several chapters of the Safety Analysis Report it is demonstrated that the AREVA EPRTM design is resistant at RRC-A accident conditions. (orig.)

  18. The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

    The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities Pf,i, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for Pf,i is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for Pf,i is been used. (Author)

  19. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  20. Experience of technological and natural disasters and their impact on the perceived risk of nuclear accidents after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan 2011: A cross-country analysis

    YAMAMURA, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses cross-country data compiled immediately after the Fukushima nuclear accident to investigate how the experience of such disasters affects the perception of the risk of nuclear accidents. Estimation results show that the perceived risk of a nuclear accident is positively associated with experiencing technological disasters but not with that of natural disasters.

  1. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  2. Accident consequence calculations and risk assessments for pressurized light water reactors with the computer code UFOMOD/B3

    With respect to the application of the accident consequence model of the German Risk Study (GRS) for light water reactors to risk assessments of other reactor types (high temperature reactor HTR-1160, fast breeder reactor SNR-300), the improved version UFOMOD/B3 was developed. The modifications mainly concern the deposition parameters, the resuspension process, the ingestion model and the dose factors. To make results comparable, recalculations for pressurized light water reactors were performed with the release categories of the GRS. The results show in contrast to the findings of the GRS a significant reduction of the acute fatality risk by a factor of 3.6. This essentially results from the smaller deposition parameters. The latent fatality risk was calculated nearly unchanged. (orig.)

  3. Risk assessment of DOE defense program packages in a beyond 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment

    A comprehensive program is being conducted by the DOE to determine the risks related to the domestic transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear weapons. The program is designed to identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences which may exceed the 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment A major objective of this program being performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of Utah is to provide the DOE with the methodology and bases for evaluating highway transportation activities by DOE contractors. This paper describes the approach and the HITRA model which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and route specific data associated with the proposed transportation activity. The model is capable of providing detailed, location and time specific data for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE defense program materials shipments

  4. Global Climate Teleconnections to Forecast Increased Risk of Vector-Borne Animal and Human Disease Transmission

    We willexamine how climate teleconnect ions and variability impact vector biology and vector borne disease ecology, and demonstrate that global climate monitoring can be used to anticipate and forecast epidemics and epizootics. In this context we willexamine significant worldwide weather anomalies t...

  5. Risk assessment of accident associated with the transport of radioactive materials by air

    The new 1996 IAEA regulation for the transport of radioactive material specifies a 90 m.s-1 drop test on an unyielding surface for packages transported by air. This figure originates from a statistical analysis of civil aircraft accidents during the period 1975 to 1985. A review of the 1983-1995 period demonstrates comparable statistics with a less stringent definition of accident. The statistical analyses are combined with the hardness of the ground flown over and the impact angle to generate probability curves giving the occurrence of a velocity exceeding a given velocity on hard ground. The following steps were carried out: (1) Statistical analysis of the accident database from the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) to appreciate the accident characteristics with special attention to the impact velocity and angle. (2) Modelling of the impact speed in each phase of flight (take off, climbing, cruise, approach and landing), in order to evaluate the probability of occurrence of a given crash impact for different flight configurations. According to this modelling, based on 741 accidents in the period 1983-1995, the overall probability of accident per flight has been estimated as 2.5x10-6 per flight (1000 km trip). Additionally, for a 90 m.s-1 package mechanical threshold (Type C specification for the transport of high activity radioactive material by air), a rate of failure of 7.7% per accident was deduced (1000 km trip and 10% of hard ground in cruise phase), leading to an overall failure probability of 1.9x10-7 per flight (corresponding to one every 5x106 flights). (author)

  6. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

  7. State-of-the-art report on accident analysis and risk analysis of reprocessing plants in European countries

    This report summarizes informations obtained from America, England, France and FRG concerning methodology, computer code, fundamental data and calculational model on accident/risk analyses of spent fuel reprocessing plants. As a result, the followings are revealed. (1) The system analysis codes developed for reactor plants can be used for reprocessing plants with some code modification. (2) Calculational models and programs have been developed for accidental phenomenological analyses in FRG, but with insufficient data to prove them. (3) The release tree analysis codes developed in FRG are available to estimate radioactivity release amount/probability via off-gas/exhaustair lines in the case of accidents. (4) The computer codes developed in America for reactor-plant environmental transport/safety analyses of released radioactivity can be applied to reprocessing facilities. (author)

  8. Psychology of nuclear accidents

    Tysoe, M.

    1983-03-31

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed.

  9. The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area

    The paper describes the ARIPAR project aimed at the assessment of the major accident risks connected with storage, process and transportation of dangerous substances in the densely populated Ravenna area in Italy, which includes a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants and minor industries, essentially distributed around an important commercial port. Large quantities of dangerous goods are involved in various transportation forms connected with the industrial and commercial activity of the port. The project started by making a complete inventory of fixed installations and transportation activities capable of provoking major fire, explosion and toxic release events; then relevant accident scenarios were developed for the single hazard sources; probabilities were assigned to the events and consequences were evaluated; finally iso-risk contours and F-N diagrams were evaluated both for the single sources and for the overall area. This required the development of a particular methodology for analysis of area risk and of associated software packages which allowed examination of the relative importance of the different activities and typologies of materials involved. The methodological approach and the results have proved to be very useful for the priority-ranking of risk mitigating interventions and physical planning in a complex area

  10. Safety and risk questions following the nuclear incidents and accidents in Japan. Summary final report

    After the nuclear accidents in Japan, GRS has carried out in-depth investigations of the events. On the one hand, the accident sequences in the affected units have been analysed from various viewpoints. On the other hand, the transferability of the findings to German plants has been examined to possibly make recommendations for safety improvements. The accident sequences at Fukushima Daiichi have been traced with as much detail as possible based on all available information. Additional insights have been drawn from thermohydraulic analyses with the GRS code system ATHLET-CD/COCOSYS focusing on the events in units 2 and 3, e.g. with regard to core damage and the state of the containments in the first days of the accident sequence. In-depth investigations have also been carried out on topics such as natural external hazards, electrical power supply or organizational measures. In addition, methodological studies on further topics related with the accidents have been performed. Through a detailed analysis of the relevant data from the events in Japan, the basis for an in-depth examination of the transferability to German plants was created. It was found that an implementation of most of the insights gained from the investigations had already been initiated as part of the GRS information notice 2012/02. Further findings have been communicated to the federal government and introduced into other relevant bodies, e.g. the Nuclear Safety Standards Committee (KTA) or the Reactor Safety Commission (RSK).

  11. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Hashim, Yusof bin [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang 26300 Kuantan, Pahang (Malaysia); Taha, Zahari bin [Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering, Malaysia Pahang, 26600 Pekan, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  12. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents

  13. Forecasting forecast skill

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  14. 基于模糊神经网络的交通事故微观预测方法研究%Research on Microcosmic Forecast Methods of Road Accidents Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

    刘金; 邓卫

    2011-01-01

    The microcosmic prediction of road accidents consists of the prediction of highway section and intersection accidents. Based on an overall summary about the existed superior and inferior forecast methods, the improvement direction in the existed prediction methods was discussed, an accident microcosmic prediction method based on fuzzy neural network wasput forward, then the network structure and learning algorithm were analyzed; an instance analysis was carried out with the traffic accident census data of Shihezi. An influence factor of highway section was selected as an import variable, then, the algorithm of fuzzy neural network was realized through Matlab program. Compared with the negative binomial regression model and BP neural network, the advantage of the fuzzy neural network model was examined.%道路交通事故微观预测包括对路段和交叉口事故指标的预测.本文总结现有预测方法的优劣性,探讨现有预测方法的改善方向,提出了基于模糊神经网络的交通事故微观预测方法,分析了网络结构和学习算法。以石河子市交通事故调查数据进行实例分析,选择路段事故影响因素作为输入变量,通过Matlab编程实现模糊神经网络的算法,并与负二项回归模型、BP神经网络模型作出比较,证明了模糊神经网络模型的优越性。

  15. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk

    Refet S. Gürkaynak; Wolfers, Justin

    2005-01-01

    In September 2002, a new market in %u201CEconomic Derivatives%u201D was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more accurately predict financial market responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied probabilities of the...

  16. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents; Notfallschutz und Risk Governance. Zur nuklearen Sicherheit bei Kernkraftwerksunfaellen

    Kuhlen, Johannes

    2014-07-01

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  17. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...... minimize discretization errors. Using our exact simulation scheme, one is able to cut these computational costs significantly and obtain even better forecasts. As probability density tail behavior is key to expected investment portfolio performance, we further conduct a risk analysis in which we compare...... well-known risk measures under both schemes. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis and find that the relative performance of the two schemes depends on the chosen model parameter estimates....

  18. A probability risk assessment for MACSTOR/KN-400 during an air inlet blockage accident sequence

    The safety assessment framework for evaluating the spent fuel dry storage facility during the air inlet blockage accident composing of three phases has been established and applied to an interim storage system. They include the analysis of the failure probability of a basket and a cylinder, the accident modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility and the accident consequence assessments. The first phase of the analysis calculated the module failure probability by modeling of the basket and the cylinder, which is major element for containing radioactive substances. The second phase includes a modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility. At this phase, the probability that radioactive substances are released to outside when the initial event happens has been calculated by the construction of the event tree methods against a various elements which affects the air inlet blockage accident. At the third phase of releasing radioactive substances, the radiation damage to affect neighborhood and storage facility worker using MACCS2 code has been evaluated quantitatively. (author)

  19. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively

  20. Accidents in industrial radiography in Brazil from 2005 to 2010

    Analysis of accidents occurring in industrial radiography in Brazil from 2005 until 2010 led to the study of the main characteristics of the events, their risks and dangers. This study outlines the main doubts on the subject, through a simplified analysis of the contents of high dose reports sent to CNEN by the companies that provide services for industrial radiography and from examining the growing number of radioactive sources for industrial radiography in Brazil, over this period. We classified the recorded events, as incidents, accidents, negligence, sabotage, and others, and studied their main consequences. We concluded that from 76 accidents that occurred during that period - 25 were real accidents, 13 minor accidents and 22 were inadvertent incidents. We found that the rate of growth in the number of sources is much greater than the rate of growth of accidents, with a ratio of 7.57 between them. The continuation of this study over some years, will allow the construction of a pyramid of accidents like the one developed by the Insurance Company of North America, specifically for industrial radiography to forecast the number of incidents and accidents that lead to serious or fatal injury. (author)

  1. Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment

    The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p < 0.001). It retrieves 94% of the total PMCH released and substantially reduces transport error (>80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error). - Highlights: • EnKF is augmented for estimating emission and improving dispersion forecast. • The improved system retrieves 94% of the actual total tracer release in ETEX. • The system substantially improves the 3-h forecast of the tracer dispersion. • The method is robust and insensitive to the first-guess emissions. • The meteorological uncertainties exert strong influence on the performance

  2. Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Estimates of Thyroid Cancer Risk among Ukrainian Children and Adolescents Exposed from the Chernobyl Accident

    Little, Mark P.; Kukush, Alexander G.; Masiuk, Sergii V.; Shklyar, Sergiy; Carroll, Raymond J.; Lubin, Jay H.; Kwon, Deukwoo; Brenner, Alina V.; Tronko, Mykola D.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Bogdanova, Tetiana I.; Hatch, Maureen; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Tereshchenko, Valeriy P.; Ostroumova, Evgenia

    2014-01-01

    The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose...

  3. The study on development of emergency operating procedures based on symptom and risk for accident management

    The Advanced EOP(AEOP) has been developed by focusing on the importance of the operators role in emergency conditions. In the AEOP, to overcome the complexity of current EOPs and maintain the consistency of operators action according to plant emergency conditions, operator's task were allocated according to their duties. As an alternative, the Computerized Operator Aid System (COAS) has been developed to reduce operator's burden and provide detailed instructions of procedure. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) results were synthesized in the AEOP using the event tree to give the awareness and the prediction of accident progression in advance. In conclusion, the existing EOP with its inherent complexity should be simplified and consolidated using computerized operator support system and task allocation to prevent more severe accidents and to reduce operator cognitive overload in emergency conditions

  4. A study on risk analysis for loading and un-loading accident

    Low Level Waste packages are transported from each Japanese nuclear power plants to Rokkasho-Mura by exclusive ship. These packages are contained in half-height 5 ton containers. The handling system for loading and unloading containers is composed of the 25 ton crane, the cell-guide system and transport trucks. These systems are mostly automated and under computer control. By design, the whole handling system should be highly protected from any accident. However unknown causes for accidents might be concealed in this handling system, because of complicated system interaction between computer control and human operation. The representative 25 ton bridge type crane was analyzed in this assessment. As the first step, causes of drop accidents were analyzed using design drawing of the crane and its system operation flow chart as inputs to the analysis. After analysis the protection methods were reviewed, and where necessary, revised in each step accident cause. Those results were rearranged by fault trees for each cause. To provide quantitative details of operational interactions, crane operators and safety supervisors were consulted. Based on their experience, a method to determine probabilities of basic events was tentatively adopted. According to this assessment, each protection method was clarified and some weak points of the loading and un-loading process were able to be identified. Figure 1 shows schematically the sequential steps in the method. As a result of this assessment, the PSA method (including fault trees, etc) was found to be adaptable for the loading and un-loading process (i.e. handling system) and to be effective in understanding the system characteristics. Further, using this PSA analysis method allows transport companies to review protection methods with 'Cost and Benefit' analysis concepts. (authors)

  5. 0BOccupational Risk Factors in Iranian Professional Drivers and their Impacts on Traffic Accidents

    MEHDI JAHANGIRI; ALI KARIMI; SAMIRA SLAMIZAD; MOHAMMAD OLYAEI; SEKHAVAT MOOSAVI; FATEMEH AMIRI

    2015-01-01

      In many countries road crashes are the main cause of fatal accidents related to job. The aim of our study was to characterize a population of Iranian professional drivers with regard to history of drivers’ road crash incidents and some occupational factors. Using Swedish version of the Nordic Questionnaire information about musculoskeletal pain prevalence in last 12 months, demographic features, smoking habits, age, job experience, road crash, job consent, self-perceived job stress, working...

  6. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives

    The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

  7. Application of MODIS GPP to Forecast Risk of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Based on Fluctuations in Reservoir Population Density

    Loehman, R.; Heinsch, F. A.; Mills, J. N.; Wagoner, K.; Running, S.

    2003-12-01

    Recent predictive models for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) have used remotely sensed spectral reflectance data to characterize risk areas with limited success. We present an alternative method using gross primary production (GPP) from the MODIS sensor to estimate the effects of biomass accumulation on population density of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse), the principal reservoir species for Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of diagnosed HPS cases in North America are attributed to SNV, which is transmitted to humans through inhalation of excretions and secretions from infected rodents. A logistic model framework is used to evaluate MODIS GPP, temperature, and precipitation as predictors of P. maniculatus density at established trapping sites across the western United States. Rodent populations are estimated using monthly minimum number alive (MNA) data for 2000 through 2002. Both local meteorological data from nearby weather stations and 1.25 degree x 1 degree gridded data from the NASA DAO were used in the regression model to determine the spatial sensitivity of the response. MODIS eight-day GPP data (1-km resolution) were acquired and binned to monthly average and monthly sum GPP for 3km x 3km grids surrounding each rodent trapping site. The use of MODIS GPP to forecast HPS risk may result in a marked improvement over past reflectance-based risk area characterizations. The MODIS GPP product provides a vegetation dynamics estimate that is unique to disease models, and targets the fundamental ecological processes responsible for increased rodent density and amplified disease risk.

  8. Risk perception of climate change and choice of energy source January 2007 and after the Fukushima accident in March 2011

    After the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant accidents, Japan has to re-plan her energy policy, and her policy against climate change as well. As nuclear power generation is the one of the keys for Japanese climate change mitigation policy, it has huge impacts on Japanese climate change policy. People overcame electric shortage of 2011 summer, and this experience also let people think about their everyday energy consumption. We have been conducting a series of public opinion surveys in the context of climate change policies from the risk governance point of view. In this paper we used our 2007 and 2011 survey results, and analysed public preferences and support for national energy policies. Our result shows, trust in governance system for nuclear power plants decreased, and support for renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and biomass increased. Also, even considering climate change risks, public do not support nuclear power generation. (author)

  9. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy

    Parco S

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sergio Parco, Fulvia Vascotto, Roberto Simeone, Patrizia Visconti Department of Health Technology Assessment, Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy Background: Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Methods: Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012–2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV, and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. Results: In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012–2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%, 59 blood splashes (37.34%, and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%. The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34

  10. Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment.

    Zhang, X L; Li, Q B; Su, G F; Yuan, M Q

    2015-04-01

    The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p released and substantially reduces transport error (>80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error). PMID:25647500

  11. Global Risk from the Atmospheric Dispersion of Radionuclides by Nuclear Power Plant Accidents in the Coming Decades

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  12. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Volume 6, Part 2: Appendices

    The objectives are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analyses, and uncertainty analysis. The internal event analysis is documented in Volume 2. The internal fire and internal flood analysis are documented in Volumes 3 and 4, respectively. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associated, Inc. A phased approach was used in the level 2/3 PRA program, however both phases addressed the risk from only mid-loop operation. The first phase of the level 2/3 PRA was initiated in late 1991 and consisted of an Abridged Risk Study. This study was completed in May 1992 and was focused on accident progression and consequences, conditional on core damage. Phase 2 is a more detailed study in which an evaluation of risk during mid-loop operation was performed. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6. This report, Volume 6, Part 2, consists of five appendices containing supporting information for: the PDS (plant damage state) analysis; the accident progression analysis; the source term analysis; the consequence analysis; and the Melcor analysis. 73 figs., 21 tabs

  13. Simulation of beyond design basis accidents : a contribution to risk analysis of nuclear power plants

    Accident management (AM) programmes are considered to be an important stepin the defense in depth concept for nuclear power plants. By carefully analyzing possible accident conditions in advance, a nuclear power plant operator may use plant equipment outside of its foreseen functions to cope with situations beyond the design of the plant. Accident management programmes have been first introduced in NPP in the USA, but are now also widely adopted in Europe. The introduction of AM in Republics of the former Soviet Union is a rather recent development. The present work has been performed as part of a Europaid Project with the goal to support the development of AM for the VVER 1000, a pressurized water reactor used in Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, India, Iran, China, Czech Republic. The project was part of the nuclear TACIS programme with the aim to enhance the safety of Russian nuclear reactors. The project had several objectives. Main goal was to execute complex experiments on the PSB-VVER integral test facility. The facility is a full height, 1:300 volume and power scaled model of the VVER 1000. Twelve experiment and three additional single variant experiments have been executed. The initiating events for the experiments were small break loss of coolant accidents, primary to secondary side leaks, loss of feed water and station black out. In addition, multiple failures of the safety systems and accident management strategies like primary side and secondary side depressurization, and injection into primary and/or secondary side with non standard equipment have been assumed. The experimental database has been used to qualify the codes Relap5 and Cathare2 for simulation of beyond design basis accidents at the VVER 1000, by performing code - experiment comparisons. All experiments have been tried to predict at a pre- and post test level. Although the PSB-VVER facility is well scaled, the behavior of the real NPP will differ considerable. Therefore, the experiments serve to

  14. Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy

    Caillault, Cyril; Dominique GUEGAN

    2009-01-01

    Using non-parametric and parametric models, we show that the bivariate distribution of an Asian portfolio is not stable along all the period under study. We suggest several dynamic models to compute two market risk measures, the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall: the RiskMetrics methodology, the Multivariate GARCH models, the Multivariate Markov-Switching models, the empirical histogram and the dynamic copulas. We discuss the choice of the best method with respect to the policy managem...

  15. Modeling and forecasting international credit risk : the case of sovereign loans

    Kalotychou, E.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis investigates the relative merits of econometric modeling, statistical and judgmental techniques for predicting debt crises and assessing the risk of credit migration. The increased reliance on econometric or statistical approaches and credit rating systems in risk management has intensified the need for more rigorous analysis of their finite sample properties. A better understanding of the available tools has implications for credit risk management, regulation and policy decision-...

  16. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand...... reference class forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents...

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  18. The importance of human performance and procedures in limiting severe accident risks

    Due to the defense in depth concept and redundancy in safety systems utilized, complex industrial plants, such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) can be operated safely. This capability has been demonstrated by many years of safe operation by numerous NPPs in the US and abroad. However, the occurrence of severe accidents has also demonstrated that constant vigilance in a number of areas is necessary to ensure continued safe operation. The areas noted as particularly important are Design, Organization and Management, Maintenance, and Operations (Human Performance). 18 refs

  19. Accident risks in nuclear facilities. January 1984-April 1988 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for January 1984-April 1988

    This bibliography contains citations concerning risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction, and operation of nuclear facilities, including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents and the utilzation of computer models in risk analysis are also included. (This updated bibliography contains 368 citations, 104 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  20. Accident risks in nuclear facilities. January 1984-April 1988 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for January 1984-April 1988

    This bibliography contains citations concerning risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction, and operation of nuclear facilities, including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents and the utilzation of computer models in risk analysis are also included. (This updated bibliography contains 368 citations, none of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  1. Accident risks in nuclear facilities. May 1988-April 1989 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for May 1988-April 1989

    This bibliography contains citations concerning risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction, and operation of nuclear facilities, including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents and the utilzation of computer models in risk analysis are also included. (This updated bibliography contains 102 citations, all of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  2. Thyroid exposure, cancer incidence and excess risk in Belarus and Ukraine in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    Estimates of excess thyroid cancer risks are performed based on data for 469 settlements in Belarus and for 719 settlements in Ukraine in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I activity in the human thyroid were performed during the first seven weeks after the Chernobyl accident. Methods were developed to derive from the whole set of measurements representative age and gender dependencies of thyroid doses in cities and in rural areas as well as scaling factors for each of the settlements with which estimates of age and gender specific doses for each of the settlements could be derived. The risk analyses is performed with population data for the year 1986 and with all thyroid cancer cases among the birth cohort 1968 to 1985 from the 1188 settlements that were operated in the period 1986 to 2001. In a second study, simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the possible influence of enhanced medical surveillance of the thyroid (screening effects) was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of 366,397 children in a total of 743 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The ecologic bias was estimated for each of the scenarios. Two analytical equations allow the exact numerical computation of the bias which is determined by the screening factor, the number of screened individuals, and some covariance terms in the input data

  3. TEPCO's risk communication activities in Fukushima Prefecture in light of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident

    This paper introduces the risk communication activities of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) in Fukushima Prefecture. It analyzed the organizational cause as the background for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident, and concluded that the root cause of the accident is the thought that 'safety has already been secured, and operation rate and the like are important management issues, which incurred the insufficient preparedness for accident.' It has taken six measures as nuclear safety reform plans. One of these is the 'enhancement of risk communication activities.' The nuclear power leader take the initiative to disclose risk under the idea that 'there is no absolute safety (zero risk) in nuclear power,' and promote risk communication for continuously obtaining the understanding of the regional community and society about safety measures, etc. To implement risk communication, 'risk communicators' are installed, and they propose for the management and nuclear leader, about the risk perception and measures associated with public disclosure and its limit, and perform risk communication in accordance with the policy. As the examples of these initiatives, this paper introduces the cases of Fukushima Prefecture, questionnaire study, and evaluations by international organizations. (A.O.)

  4. Leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident:. Estimation of radiation risks (1986-1995)

    Ivanov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Tsyb, A.F. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Gorsky, A.I. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Maksyutov, M.A. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Rastopchin, E.M. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Konogorov, A.P. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Korelo, A.M. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Biryukov, A.P. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Matyash, V.A. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1997-02-01

    This work focuses on the direct epidemiological assessment of the risks of radiation-induced leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers (EW) after the Chernobyl accident. The Russian National Medical Dosimetric Registry (RNMDR) contains data for 168 000 EW as of January 1, 1996. The analysis relates to 48 leukaemias and 47 thyroid cancers, diagnosed and verified. Radiation risks are estimated by comparing the EW data with national data for a male population of the same age distribution. For leukaemia, an excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) of 4.30 (95% CI: 0.83, 7.75) is obtained, while the excess absolute risk per 10{sup 4} person-years (PY) Gy (EAR/10{sup 4} PY Gy) is found to be 1.31 (95% CI: 0.23, 2.39); for thyroid cancer an ERR/Gy of 5.31 (95% CI: 0.04, 10.58) is obtained, and an EAR/10{sup 4} PY Gy of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.08, 2.22). (orig.). With 9 figs., 10 tabs.

  5. Contribution of activation products to fusion accident risk: Part II. Effects of alternative materials and designs

    Comparison of accident-hazard potentials associated with neutron-activation products in fusion reactors of various designs and structural materials suffers from a number of shortcomings in the readily available hazard-index data. Neither inventories of curies nor biological hazard potentials (BHPs) are satisfactory indices of hazard even if consistently computed, and between-study inconsistencies in neutronics packages and BHP calculations further obscure the meaning of comparisons based on these measures. The authors present here the results of internally consistent calculations of radioactive inventories, BHPs, and off-site dose potentials associated with the first walls of nine reactor-design/first-wall-material combinations. A recent mirror-reactor design reduces off-site dose potentials by a factor of 2 compared to a muchstudied early tokamak, for a given first-wall material. Holding design fixed, HT-9 ferritic steel offers a factor of 2 reduction in dose potential compared to Type 316 stainless steel. By the dose-potential measure, molybdenum is the worst of the materials investigated and silicon carbide is by far the best. Hazards in realizable accidents depend not only on the hypothetical dose potentials, as calculated here, but also on the actual release fractions of first-wall (or other activated) material. Review of the theoretical and experimental evidence bearing on release fractions suggests that, for most candidate materials, high release fractions from designs containing liquid lithium cannot yet be convincingly ruled out

  6. Contribution of activation products to fusion accident risk: part II. Effects of alternative materials and designs

    Comparison of accident-hazard potentials associated with neutron-activation products in fusion reactors of various designs and structural materials suffers from a number of shortcomings in the readily available hazard-index data. Neither inventories of curies nor biological hazard potentials (BHPs) are satisfactory indices of hazard even if consistently computed, and between-study inconsistencies in neutronics packages and BHP calculations further obscure the meaning of comparisons based on these measures. We present here the results of internally consistent calculations of radioactive inventories, BHPs, and off-site dose potentials associated with the first walls of nine reactor-design/first-wall-material combinations. A recent mirror-reactor design reduces off-site dose potentials by a factor of 2 compared to a muchstudied early tokamak, for a given first-wall material. Holding design fixed, HT-9 ferritic steel offers a factor of 2 reduction in dose potential compared to Type 316 stainless steel. By the dose-potential measure, molybdenum is the worst of the materials investigated and silicon carbide is by far the best. Hazards in realizable accidents depend not only on the hypothetical dose potentials, as calculated here, but also on the actual release fractions of first-wall (or other activated) material. Review of the theoretical and experimental evidence bearing on release fractions suggests that, for most candidate materials, high release fractions from designs containing liquid lithium cannot yet be convincingly ruled out

  7. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  8. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    European Union. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work

    2013-01-01

    Significant changes which are taking place in the world of work lead to emerging psychosocial risks. Such risks, which are linked to the way work is designed, organised and managed, as well as to the economic and social context of work, result in an increased level of stress and can lead to serious deterioration of mental and physical health. In 2005, more than 20% of workers from the EU believed that their health is at risk because of work-related stress. The report presents the results of t...

  9. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms - STU

    The purpose of this project is to address the key uncertainties associated with a number of fission product release and transport phenomena in a wider context and to assess their relevance to key severe accident sequences. This project is a wide-based analysis involving eight reactor designs that are representative of the reactors currently operating in the European Union (EU). In total, 20 accident sequences covering a wide range of conditions have been chosen to provide the basis for sensitivity studies. The appraisal is achieved through a systematic risk-based framework developed within this project. Specifically, this is a quantitative interpretation of the sensitivity calculations on the basis of 'significance indicators', applied above defined threshold values. These threshold values represent a good surrogate for 'large release', which is defined in a number of EU countries. In addition, the results are placed in the context of in-containment source term limits, for advanced light water reactor designs, as defined by international guidelines. Overall, despite the phenomenological uncertainties, the predicted source terms (both into the containment, and subsequently, into the environment) do not display a high degree of sensitivity to the individual fission product issues addressed in this project. This is due, mainly, to the substantial capacity for the attenuation of airborne fission products by the designed safety provisions and the natural fission product retention mechanisms within the containment

  10. 基于动态风险平衡的海洋平台事故连锁风险研究%On the risk chain of the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents based on the dynamic risk balance

    郭恒; 陈国明; 朱渊

    2012-01-01

    The present paper is aimed at introducing a dynamic model for the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents proposed by the authors based on the two concepts, that is, the accident impetus and accident obstruction. As is well known, due to its own restricted conditions, offshore platforms, on the event of fire or explosion, are likely to suffer tragic casualties and material losses, letting alone the environmental contamination. Based on investigating and analyzing plenty of offshore platform accidents both at home and abroad, we have brought forward a new approach to dealing with such tragic accidents, that is, to finding the accident dynamic model characterized as dynamic nature and transient stability. As a matter of fact, a regular oil-drilling platform tends to present a dynamic equilibrium state between the accident impetus and the accident obstruction, while the accident dynamic state indicates a kind of energy that tends to lead to the happening of an accident whereas there exists some kind of transmitting impetus that passes on the energy that may obstruct or prevent the accident from occurring. In view of the dynamic risk balance, we have come up with the accident dynamic model consisting of four steps: first of all, the offshore platform likely to lead to grave accidents are chosen as an object of study, and next, the corresponding factors likely to cause the accidents are analyzed from the points of view of accident-incidence process, and, last of all, the countermeasures were taken in engineering, technology and management. What's more, the risk statistical data and information concerning the accident chains are to be built up when the elementary accident impetus has been determined. And, by this moment, it would be necessary to work out the probability distribution of all transmitting impetus and obstruction factors in the circumstance that the elementary accident-incidence dynamic has been calculated. Furthermore, the analysis results should be made

  11. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  12. A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

    Maggio, Gaspare; Fragola, Joseph R.

    1999-01-01

    The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability

  13. Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal reg...

  14. Development of intergrated accident management assessment technology; development of interface modules of risk-monitoring system

    Kang, S. K.; Park, S. K.; Seok, H.; Kim, D. K.; Han, J. K.; Park, B. R. [KOPEC, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    Based on the development of interface modules with FORTE.- DynaRM can quantify risk model very fast (Very frequent risk model quantification is needed for configuration risk management).- risk monitoring system technology transfer to foreign NPPs. Contribution to component failure and maintenance control automation with the development of Tagging control System. On-Line risk monitoring system development by joint team between Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and KOPEC is a request by KEPCO. The softwares developed in this study is easily implemented at domestic NPPs without extra study or cost. Economic benefit and Software export to foreign NPPs are expected because of the development of technology related to risk monitoring system and its management. 6 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  15. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  16. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  17. Thyroid exposure in Belorussian and Ukrainian children after the Chernobyl accident and resulting risk of thyroid cancer. Final report

    Main objectives of the BfS Project StSch4240 Thyroid Exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian Children due to the Chernobyl Accident and Resulting Thyroid Cancer Risk were: - to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968-1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian settlements, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I activity in the human thyroid have been performed in May/June 1986 - to explore, whether this dosimetric database can be extended to neighboring settlements - to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968-1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian oblasts (regions) and larger cities - to document the thyroid cancer incidence for the period 1986-2001 in Ukraine and Belarus and describe morphological characteristics of the cancer cases - to assess the contribution of the baseline incidence to the total thyroid cancer incidence in the two countries and identify regional and temporal dependencies - to perform analyses of excess risks in settlements with more than 10 measurements of the 131I activity in the human thyroid. The project has been accompanied by the BFS project StSch 4299 Range of applicability of epidemiological studies with aggregate data for risk factor determination. The purpose of that project is to explore by simulation calculations to which degree there is an ecologic bias in the risk studies performed in the frame of the present project. The results of project StSch 4299 indicate that the ecologic bias of excess absolute risk estimates is small because: - radiation is the dominating cause of thyroid cancer among those who were children or adolescents in the highly contaminated areas at the time of the accident - there is no indication that the dose-response for thyroid cancer after exposures during childhood is non-linear in the dose range of 0.05-1.0 Gy - the variability of average doses in the age

  18. The Aftereffect Forecast and Analysis for Accidents of Uranium Explosive%含铀材料化学爆炸事故后果预测与分析

    段中山; 罗永锋; 袁伟; 尚爱国

    2011-01-01

    Chemical explosion accidents of uranium materials produce radioactive aerosol endangering human health. It discusses the formation and hazard of uranium aerosol. According to the different wind speed, meteorological factors and geographic conditions, the Hotspot nuclear accident aftereffect evaluation model was used to calculate radiation characters, which comparison and analysis conform to the record of the relevant documents The computational results show that different wind speed, meteorological factors and geographic conditions correspond to different features of radiation and some rules, which has obvious effect on radiant hazard and disposal.%含铀材料化学爆炸事故会产生放射性气溶胶危害人体健康.探讨了铀气溶胶的形成及危害,针对不同风速、天气因素和地貌状况,应用Hotspot核事故后果评价模型定量计算了有关辐射特征量,结合相关文献记录,对其进行比较和分析.计算结果显示,不同的风速、天气因素和地貌状况都会对应着相应不同的辐射特征量,并具有一定的规律性,对辐射危害防护及处置有着明显的影响.

  19. Estimates of radiation dose and health risks to the United States population following the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident

    Estimates of both individual and collective doses received by the United States population following the Chernobyl accident have been made by using the data obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Ambient Monitoring System. Radionuclides associated with the debris first were measured in precipitation and surface air particulates at Portland, OR and Olympia, WA on 5 May 1986. Iodine-131 was the most consistently measured nuclide in all media, although several Cs and Ru isotopes also were observed. Strontium and any actinides notably were absent from the samples at the lower level of detection. The highest calculated individual-organ dose due to intake during May and June 1986 was 0.52 mSv to the infant thyroid in the state of Washington. This was predominantly (98%) from the ingestion of milk. The maximum U.S. collective dose equivalent to any organ was calculated to be 3,300 person-Sv to the thyroid. Risk estimates project three excess lung cancer deaths and an additional four deaths due to cancers of thyroid, breast and leukemia in the U.S. population over the next 45 y from exposure during the May-June 1986 interval. The only long-lived radionuclide measured in milk samples following the accident was 137Cs. We estimate 20 excess fatalities from the ingestion of 137Cs in milk during all subsequent years, with six of these due to lung cancer and the majority of the remainder distributed approximately equally among cancers of the thyroid, breast, liver and leukemia. A total of 100 excess fatalities from all dietary components was estimated. Because of the uncertainty of risk estimates from data such as those available for this study, all calculated values carry a range of uncertainty from a minimum of one-half the calculated value to a maximum of two times the calculated value

  20. Perception of Radiation Risk by Japanese Radiation Specialists Evaluated as a Safe Dose Before the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    Miura, Miwa; Ono, Koji; Yamauchi, Motohiro; Matsuda, Naoki

    2016-06-01

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals from radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they considered as a "safe dose" of radiation for themselves, their partners, parents, children, siblings, and friends. Although the 'safe dose' they noted varied widely, from less than 1 mSv y to more than 100 mSv y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv y, which is around the middle point between the legal exposure dose limits for the annual average and for any single year. Similar results were obtained from other surveys of members of the Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv y) and of the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv y). Among family members and friends, the minimum average "safe" dose was 8.5 mSv y for children, for whom 50% of the responders claimed a "safe dose" of less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the radiation professional also affected their notion of a "safe dose." These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely even for radiation professionals and that the legal exposure dose limits derived from regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety. The different levels of risk perception for different target groups among radiation professionals appear similar to those in the general population. The gap between these characteristics of radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might have played a role in the state of confusion after the radiological accident. PMID:27115222

  1. Insights of probabilistic risk analysis on the development of severe accident management guidance: a case study for a plant similar to ANGRA I

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) surges as a way to evaluate the risk of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and to quantify it. Its objective was to track sequences of accidents and define mitigate actions to prevent core damage. But when the core is damaged the question is how to avoid releases of radionuclides to the environment. PRA evaluates this scenario too and is input to the Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG). This paper aims in the interaction between PRA and SAMG, both under development for the Brazilian NPPs, focusing in one specific Plant Damage State (PDS). The objective is to develop an Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) proposing the mitigate actions for the event, helping to understand the phenomena.(author)

  2. Risk perception in Western Europe 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    Sjoeberg, L. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research

    1999-12-01

    What have we learned about risk perception? Let me summarize a few highlights: Perceived risk is at the present highest with regard to acute economic needs, but the environment and nuclear technology are also important. Nuclear technology has a special role in being perceived as very low in 'control', i.e. if you can protect yourself from its hazards. Media do play an important role in risk perception, but it is more subtle than most often believed. Media do affect our beliefs by the information they bring us, but not necessarily by increasing the 'availability of what we already know'. Trust is not the primary factor in risk perception that it often is believed to be - it does play a role at a moderate level of power. It may be that trust is a necessary but not sufficient factor for risk 'acceptance'. In Western Europe, we have noted very large variations among countries both with regard to trust and perceived risk. Inclusion of other societies would probably have meant observation of even greater variation. The RISKPERCOM project serves as a starting point for further work on risk perception and technology. Attitudes and values need to be studied in a broader frame than merely perceived risk, as the project has shown. Future research on such acute topics as nuclear waste is called for; the project has already produced a number of results in that area but space restrictions preclude me from reviewing them here.

  3. Risk perception in Western Europe 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    What have we learned about risk perception? Let me summarize a few highlights: Perceived risk is at the present highest with regard to acute economic needs, but the environment and nuclear technology are also important. Nuclear technology has a special role in being perceived as very low in 'control', i.e. if you can protect yourself from its hazards. Media do play an important role in risk perception, but it is more subtle than most often believed. Media do affect our beliefs by the information they bring us, but not necessarily by increasing the 'availability of what we already know'. Trust is not the primary factor in risk perception that it often is believed to be - it does play a role at a moderate level of power. It may be that trust is a necessary but not sufficient factor for risk 'acceptance'. In Western Europe, we have noted very large variations among countries both with regard to trust and perceived risk. Inclusion of other societies would probably have meant observation of even greater variation. The RISKPERCOM project serves as a starting point for further work on risk perception and technology. Attitudes and values need to be studied in a broader frame than merely perceived risk, as the project has shown. Future research on such acute topics as nuclear waste is called for; the project has already produced a number of results in that area but space restrictions preclude me from reviewing them here

  4. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6

  5. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

  6. Uncertainties due to soil data in Flood Risk Forecasts with the Water Balance Model LARSIM

    Mitterer, Johannes

    2016-04-01

    Reliable flood forecasts with quantitative statements about contained uncertainties are essential for far reaching decisions in disaster management. In this paper uncertainties resulting from soil data are analysed for the in the German-speaking world widely used water balance model LARSIM and quantified as far as possible. At the beginning a structural and statistical analysis about the wittingly simple designed soil module is performed. It consists of a storage volume with four separate runoff components only defined by the storage size. Additionally, the model structure is examined with regard to effects of uncertain soil data using a soil map from the Bavarian State Institute for Forestry which already contains estimated minimum and maximum values for important soil parameters. For further analysis, two German catchments in Upper Franconia located at the White Main with a size of 250 km² each, covering a huge variety of soil types are used as case examples. Skeleton is identified as an important source of uncertainty in soil data comparing the quantifiable information of available soil maps and using field and laboratory analysis. Furthermore, surface runoff and fast interflow fluxes show up to be sensitive for peaks of flood events, whereas slow interflow and base flow fluxes have smaller and more long term effects on discharges and the water balance. A reduction of the soil storage basically leads to a more intensified reaction of discharges than an enlargement. The calculation of two extreme scenarios within the statistical analysis result in simulated gage measurements varying from -42 % till +218 % compared to the scenario with the main value of the map. A percental variation of the soil storage shows a doubling of the flood discharges, if the storage size is halved and a reduction up to 20% using a doubled one. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation is performed using the statistical data of the soil map combined with a normal distribution, whereby the

  7. Hypothesis of a nuclear accident to the nuclear power plant of Gravelines with important radioactive release out of the site: risks prevention, intervention strategies. Evaluation of the sensitization to the nuclear risk of the physician practicing near the site

    This thesis has for hypothesis a nuclear accident at the nuclear power plant of Gravelines with radioactive release out of the site: the risks prevention and the strategies of intervention are studied. An evaluation of the sensitization to a nuclear risk is made for the general practitioner that practices near the site. (N.C.)

  8. Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

    Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

    2009-03-15

    This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union. PMID:18657363

  9. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

  10. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  11. ACCURATE FORECAST AS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC RISK OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

    Kymratova A. M.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the ways of reducing the financial, economic and social risks on the basis of an accurate prediction. We study the importance of natural time series of winter wheat yield, minimum winter, winter-spring daily temperatures. The feature of the time series of this class is disobeying a normal distribution, there is no visible trend

  12. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China. PMID:24781332

  13. SHAPES: A new survey on accident risks and injuries in commuter cyclists in Belgium

    de Geus, B.; Vandenbulcke, G.; Int Panis, Luc; Torfs, R; Degraeuwe, B.; I Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The health enhancing effects of regular bicycling (e.g. commuter cycling) are well known, however this health benefit has also a negative aspect especially when safety is neglected. Bicyclists have a higher risk of being injured than any other group of road users. They are “unprotected” in traffic, despite being capable of reaching high speeds. This increases the risk and severity of the injury. Bicycle related injury statistics from police, hospital and insurance statistics are well describe...

  14. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  15. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  16. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  17. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  18. Defensive forecasting

    Vovk, Vladimir; Takemura, Akimichi; Shafer, Glenn

    2005-01-01

    We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a forecasting strategy whose forecasts are ideal as far as this gambling strategy is concerned. A forecasting strategy obtained in this way from a gambling strategy demonstrating a strong law of large numbers is simplified and studied empirically.

  19. Tritium accident containment within a large fusion enclosure: cost, benefit, and risk considerations

    Containment of a tritium accident within a large fusion device building will be difficult and costly. Complete containment is impossible, and with this fact in mind, the global dispersion and health effects of tritium are reviewed. Atmospheric tritium emissions lead to an estimated population dose to the Northern Hemisphere of 5.6 x 10-3 man-rem/Ci, which may also be interpreted as 1 cancer fatality per MCi. Updating the NRC $1000 per man-rem criterion to 1982 costs gives 9.5 $/y per Ci/y as the unit annual health benefit rate from averting tritium release at a continuous rate. Present worth considerations lead to an estimate of $100 per Ci/y for the maximum capital investment justified per expected curie per year of tritium release averted. A simplified enclosure model is used to explore the trade-off between processing capacity and recycle time with the health cost of residual tritium release included in the analysis

  20. Risk assessment of radioactive and hazardous materials in DOE defence package transport accidents

    A programme is being conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to determine the risks to the public from domestic transport of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear defence materials. The programme will identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences, particularly for those transport packages that may not meet the 10 CFR 71.73 (US Code of Federal Regulations) test criteria because of configuration or content. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the University of Utah will provide the DOE with the bases and methodology for establishing rigorous, quantitative acceptance criteria for evaluating and certifying highway transport activities by DOE contractors. The Highway Transportation Risk Assessment (HITRA) model is described which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and utilises transport route specific data. The HITRA model provides detailed, location and time specific data and analysis for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE shipments along a given specific highway transport route and for other site-specific factors. (Author)

  1. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law

  2. [Soft tissue calcifications in panoramic radiography. A risk factor for cerebrovascular accidents?].

    Ariayi, Ayesha Shekeba; Berndt, Dorothea; Lambrecht, J Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Panoramic radiography is a basic diagnostic tool in the dental field where calcifications are seen occasionally in the lateral parts of the x-ray. The differential diagnosis are carotid artery atheromas, calcified submandibular lymphnodes and sialoliths of the submandibular gland. 4007 panoramic radiographs (100%) from patients >40 years were scanned retrospectively. Special emphasis was given to the carotid artery territory (CAT). 225 soft tissue calcifications were found (5.6%). 144 patients had calcifications in the CAT (3.6%), 73 showed calcified submandibular lymphnodes (1.8%), and 8 (0.2%) sialoliths. The female to male ratio was 54.7%:45.3%. Pneumatic diseases were beside hypertension and smoking a risk factor for CAT calcification. Carotid artery atheromas are the main risk for cerebrovascular insults. Dentists can help to detect patients at risk for stroke. Their patients can be referred for further diagnostics (ultrasound). PMID:19954131

  3. Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

    Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

    2016-04-01

    Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

  4. Nanotechnology, global development in the frame of environmental risk forecasting. A necessity of interdisciplinary researches

    Bottero, Jean-Yves; Auffan, Mélanie; Borschnek, Daniel; Chaurand, Perrine; Labille, Jérôme; Levard, Clément; Masion, Armand; Tella, Marie; Rose, Jérôme; Wiesner, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    Interdisciplinarity is of first importance to evaluate the risks associated with nanotechnology. The reasons are that nanomaterials are very new materials that combine nano-sizes and new reactivities. The complexity comes from the very low concentrations of nanomaterials in the environmental medium, the transformations of the nanomaterials due to the reactivity of the surface, the transfer in the environmental media, particularly in the presence of liquid water (soils, sediments, surface water), which implies an association with natural colloids (organic or minerals) and blockage in some compartments. These properties govern the hazard that strongly depends on exposure and speciation.

  5. Relationship Between Driving-violation Behaviours and Risk Perception in Motorcycle Accidents

    Andy S.K. Cheng

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: This study could assist occupational-therapy practitioners involved in driving rehabilitation and training to identify strategies to deal with drivers' violation behaviours and risk perception. It could also provide evidence-based recommendations for drivers' education, driving-safety campaigns, or even licensing policies.

  6. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be...... initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years...

  7. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  8. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?; Welche Folgen hat der Kernkraftwerksunfall in Fukushima fuer die Bewertung von Kernenergierisiken?

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. Sozialwissenshaften V; Gallego Carrera, Diana [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). ZIRIUS Zentrum fuer Interdiszipliaere Risiko- und Innovationsforschung

    2015-06-01

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  9. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome as an accident risk factor in professional drivers in Yekaterinburg. Dangerous Sleep (DS-1 study

    A. A. Belkin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available About 20% of all road traffic accidents may be associated with falling asleep while driving. This may be caused by sleep disorders leading to daytime sleepiness, the most common of which is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS. Objective: to study somatic and mental health, sleep disorders, OSAS in particular, in the population of Russian drivers (Sverdlovsk Region. Patients and methods. The descriptive cohort «Dangerous Sleep» (DS-1 study of 20 professional drivers having more than 5-year driving experience was conducted at the Clinical Institute of the Brain. The mean age of the drivers was 45.8 years. They underwent somatic evaluation for cardiovascular risk factors and a psychological examination involving a risk readiness diagnostic procedure, the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and an electroencephalographic examination. A somnological examination assumed testing using the Epworth sleepiness scale, polysomnography, or overnight pulse metry. Results and discussion. 30% of the drivers were found to have marked attention disorders and an inability to adapt to extreme conditions, which create a risk for professional duties. The predisposing factors were noted to be alcohol addiction, overweight, and OSAS, the rate of the latter proved to be higher than that in the general population of able-bodied men. It was shown that a somnological examination should be obligatorily performed while hiring professional drivers, particularly to long hauliers. The drivers having a long length of experience, in whom a periodic examination detects sleep disorders, should be treated for somatic diseases and should also have individual working schedules to rule out their long night-time driving. 

  10. The psychology of nuclear accidents

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed. (U.K.)

  11. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  12. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research ....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis...

  13. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  14. Summary of PRA assessment of transient accident risks, human factors considerations, and PRA methods and applications

    This chapter reviews the progress made in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) area to help in solving operational transient problems and to integrate human factors considerations, as discussed at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors. Topics considered include core-melt frequency, external events (e.g., fires, floods), diagnostic errors, and operator aids. It is concluded that confidence in PRA results, predictions and uses for decisions in both the safety of the plants and their availability will improve

  15. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  16. Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

    Mishra, Sitakanta; Ahmed, Mansoor

    2014-04-01

    In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

  17. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%. PMID:26660752

  18. MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY AMONG EMERGENCY WORKERS OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: ASSESSMENT OF RADIATION RISKS FOR THE FOLLOW-UP PERIOD OF 1992-2008

    V. K. Ivanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Morbidity and mortality among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow- up period of 199Morbidity and mortality among the emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow-up period of 1992-2008 is analyzed in the article. The cohort consists of 47141 emergency workers of 1986-1987. Radiation risks for cancer morbidity (ERR/Gy is 0.76; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.42, p-value=0008 and cancer mortality (ERR/Gy is 0.95; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.89, p-value=0.01 are statistically significant. Radiation risk for vascular diseases is assessed as well.

  19. Re-suspension of the radioactive fallout after the Fukushima accident: risk of internal dose during the first week and the first two months

    Yamauchi, M.; Takeda, M.; Makino, M.; Owada, T.

    2012-04-01

    The nuclear accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 contaminated an area of more than 100 km in diameter by radioactive material with amount of about 10-20% of that by the Chernobyl accident. According to the Chernobyl experience, a part of fallout radionuclide is expected to be re-suspended by wind, causing possible risk of internal dose. However, this re-suspension process and its amounts have not been studied very much due to the difficulty of direct measurement of low-density dusts. To estimate forms and periods of the re-suspension of the radioactive fallout, we used both the radiation dose rate data and vertical (downward) component of the DC electric field near the ground, or potential gradient (PG) at Kakioka, 150 km away from the accident site. The data indicates: (1) During 14-15 March, the radioactive dust is most likely suspended in the air near the ground. (2) During 2-7 UT on 16 March, the radioactive dust is most likely blown up from the surface by the strong wind from the non-contaminated area. (3) During 16-20 March, the radioactive dust most likely stayed re-suspended. (4) After the wet contamination on 20 March until late April, the radioactive fallout on the ground are re-suspended during daytime by daily convection due to sunshine, and transported to downwind direction. (5) At more than 30 km distance from the accident site, the re-suspension most likely ceased by the end of April. However, no data is available within 20 km distance from the accident site. Yamauchi, et al. (2012): Settlement process of radioactive dust to the ground inferred from the atmospheric electric field measurement, Ann. Geophys., 30, 49-56, doi:10.5194/angeo-30-49-2012. Yamauchi (2012): Secondary wind transport of radioactive materials after the Fukushima accident, Earth Planet Space, accepted for publication.

  20. Transportation accidents

    Predicting the possible consequences of transportation accidents provides a severe challenge to an analyst who must make a judgment of the likely consequences of a release event at an unpredictable time and place. Since it is impractical to try to obtain detailed knowledge of the meteorology and terrain for every potential accident location on a route or to obtain accurate descriptions of population distributions or sensitive property to be protected (data which are more likely to be more readily available when one deals with fixed-site problems), he is constrained to make conservative assumptions in response to a demanding public audience. These conservative assumptions are frequently offset by very small source terms (relative to a fixed site) created when a transport vehicle is involved in an accident. For radioactive materials, which are the principal interest of the authors, only the most elementary models have been used for assessing the consequences of release of these materials in the transportation setting. Risk analysis and environmental impact statements frequently have used the Pasquill-Gifford/gaussian techniques for releases of short duration, which are both simple and easy to apply and require a minimum amount of detailed information. However, after deciding to use such a model, the problem of selecting what specific parameters to use in specific transportation situations still presents itself. Additional complications arise because source terms are not well characterized, release rates can be variable over short and long time periods, and mechanisms by which source aerosols become entrained in air are not always obvious. Some approaches that have been used to address these problems will be reviewed with emphasis on guidelines to avoid the Worst-Case Scenario Syndrome

  1. How does corruption influence perceptions of the risk of nuclear accidents?: cross-country analysis after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.

    YAMAMURA, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    Japan’s 2011 natural disasters were accompanied by a devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima. This paper used cross-country data obtained immediately after the Japanese disaster to explore how, and the extent to which, corruption affects the perception of citizens regarding the risk of nuclear accidents. Endogeneity bias was controlled for using instrumental variables. The cross-country analysis showed that citizens in less corrupt countries tend to perceive there to be a lower possibility ...

  2. The radioecological risk of decommissioning of nuclear submarines. Possible accidents and normal conditions

    In the report the results of the estimations of radiological risk of various stages of decommissioning of nuclear submarines are presented. At occurrence on nuclear submarine the heavy failure, relating to the class hypotetical volume of acting of radionuclides in atmosphere can reach 1.6E(15) Bq. Results of estimations probable doses on an axis of a trace of a radioactive loop show, that at distribution of radionuclides during atmospheric carry to 'agreed' settlement (500-1000 m) the maximum doses on its territory can make: about 6.0E(-3) Sv (for the whole body); 3.0E(-3) Gy for the leather (basal layer); 6.3E(-2) Gy for the lungs (acute exposure) and up to 1.8 Gy for the thyroid gland. Hypotetical failure for the estimation of the greatest possible radioecological consequences for hydrobiocenosis is considering, connected with single discharge of liquid radioactive waste (LRW) in water area. At navigating failure of the tanker with LRW in water area can arrive 300 M3 of LRW with the high contents of radionuclides (up to E(14) Bq). In account was accepted, that the receipt occurs during 30 days. At similar failure 1% of the area of a bay can be polluted above (3-4)E(4) Bq/l during the first days. The analysis of data on probable doses of exposure of hydrobionts has shown, that the maximum sizes of doses external exposure will be formed in near future after failure (1,4E(-4) Gy/day-1 day; 1,5E(-5) Gy/day-30 days) and correspond to dynamics of the contents radionuclides in sea environment. The capacity of a dose internal exposure on 1st year after failure does not exceed 4E(-6) Gy/day. Accounts show, that to the end 1st year after failure the specific activity a fish, living in region of probable pollution, for the given group radionuclides can make 4E(-1) ...3E(3) Bq/kg. Consumption of a similar fish in quantity 1 kg can result to additional exposure of critical group of the population in doses up to 2E(-5) Sv. Accordingly, the additional size of radiating risk at

  3. Management of severe accidents

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  4. The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type

    Safety in air traffic is a multilayered concept and consists of many safety barriers. The practical side of increasing safety is mainly based on analysing the causes of accidents and incidents. This analysis leads to finding gaps in the safety structure and to developing corrective recommendations in order to eliminate them. In this paper we indicate that this practice is insufficient. Most incidents could transform into accidents with fatalities. The standard method of investigating incidents does not answer the question as to whether safety barrier is permanent or whether it was activated accidentally. This paper proposes a new method for analysing incidents aimed at finding their consequences rather than their causes. This makes it possible to find areas that need improvement. Stochastic, timed, coloured Petri nets were used for the analysis. There are three types of air traffic incidents, distinguished according to events that lead to a transformation of an incident into an accident: causal and temporal. The hybrid case, in which both types are important, has been discussed in detail. The method is useful in evaluating the current level of safety in air traffic. Applicability of this method has been shown on the example of the runway incursion problem. - Highlights: • Current accident investigation procedure is not sufficient. • New method aimed to study incident’s conversion into accident was proposed. • The Petri net model of air traffic accident was developed. • Method allows calculating accident probability. • The hybrid case in which both causal and temporal events are important is discussed

  5. SLAM, the development of an EO Service to support the legal obligations of Swiss and Italian Geological Risk Services in landslide risk forecasting and prevention.

    Paganini, M.; Palazzo, F.; Manunta, P.; Ferretti, A.; Gontier, E.; Wunderle, S.; Pasquali, P.; van Westen, C.; Strozzi, T.; Zilger, J.

    2003-04-01

    The numerous of hydro-geological disastrous events that have occurred recently in Switzerland and in Italy have increased the awareness of the risk factors for the population exposed and gave rise to a strong and responsible political action. In particular the necessity to produce landslide hazard maps has been considered of paramount importance by all stakeholders as well as the importance to monitor slope movement with regularly updated activity maps. The combination of state of the art Remote Sensing observations and Geographical Information System (GIS) modeling has proven to be a promising technique that can significantly contribute to the mitigation of Landslide Hazards. There is however a general consensus that additional demonstration projects are still needed before the development of an operational hazard and risk monitoring system with reliable, accurate and up-to-date EO observation data can be considered. The European Space Agency has started the SLAM (Service for Landslide Monitoring) initiative in 2001 under the framework of its Data User Programme (DUP) to develop an EO Service that could support the forecasting and prevention activities of Italian and Swiss Geological Risk Services involved in Landslide Risk mitigations. The SLAM Initiative has been conceived by the European Space Agency along 3 consecutive sets of activities: 1. a SLAM Service Feasibility study with the objective to critically review and assess the possibility to use Remote Sensing technologies within Landslide monitoring and risk assessment in a reliable and cost-effective manner. 2. Some SLAM Service Definition projects with the objective to carry out, with the close collaboration of user organizations, all preliminary tasks that would build the foundation for the implementation of a wide scale SLAM information service. This implied principally the identification and engagement of user organizations based on their statutory duties, and the definition and specification of SLAM

  6. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  7. The possibility of building nuclear power plant free from severe accident risk: PWR NPP with advanced all passive safety cooling systems (AAP SCS)

    A complete set of advanced all passive safety cooling systems (AAP SCS) for PWR NPP, actuated by natural force has been put forward in the article. Here the natural force mainly means the fore, which created by change of pressure distribution in the first loop of PWR as a result of operational regime conversion from one to another, including occurrence of accident situation. Correspondent safety cooling system will be actuated naturally and then put it into passive operation after occurring some kind of accident, so accidental situation will be mitigated right after it's occurrence and core residual heat will be naturally moved from the active core to the ultimate heat sink. There is no need to rely on automatic control system, any active equipment and human actions in all working process of the AAP SCS, which can reduce the probability of severe accident to zero, so as to exclude the need of evacuation plan around AAP nuclear power plant and eliminate the public's concern and doubt about nuclear power safety. Implementation of the AAP SCS concept is only based on use of evolutionary measures and state-of-the-art technology. So at present time it can be used for design of new-type third generation PWR nuclear power plant without severe accident risk, and for modernization of existing second generation nuclear power plant. (authors)

  8. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Fundamental and applied aspects of radiobiology: Biological effects of low doses and radioactive contamination of environment (Radioecological and medical biological consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident)'

    The results of research works executed in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russia, on various aspects of the Chernobyl problematic are given: radiation medicine and risks, radiobiological effects and their forecasting, radioecology and agricultural radiology, decontamination and radioactive wastes management, socio economic and psychological problems caused by the Chernobyl NPP accident

  9. Forecasting trade

    Keck, Alexander; Raubold, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison to other models, our approach offers several methodological advantages, inter alia, a focus on import growth as the core ...

  10. Load forecasting

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  11. Forecasting volatility

    Ederington, Louis H; Wei Guan

    2005-01-01

    The forecasting ability of the most popular volatility forecasting models is examined and an alternative model developed. Existing models are compared in terms of four attributes: (1) the relative weighting of recent versus older observations, (2) the estimation criterion, (3) the trade‐off in terms of out‐of‐sample forecasting error between simple and complex models, and (4) the emphasis placed on large shocks. As in previous studies, we find that financial markets have longer memories than ...

  12. Halka Açık Olmayan Şirketlerde Sistematik Risk Ölçütü Beta Katsayısının Tahmin Edilmesi(Forecasting Systematic Risk Measure Beta Coefficient For Private Companies

    Mustafa KIRLI

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic risk being insensitive to portfolio diversification affects all financial markets and all financial assets operated in these markets.Systematic risk measure beta coefficient shows the sensitivity of the securities’ returns to variations in the market return.Beta coefficient is forecasted by using regression model.For publicly traded firms, we know the historical market datas,thus there is no difficulty for estimating beta coefficients of these firms.On the other hand,private companies do not have a market price history.Consequently there are difficulties for estimating beta coefficients of private companies.In this study,to forecast beta coefficients for private firms,three models or approaches are suggested and with details analysed.These models or approaches are accounting betas,fundamental betas and comparable publicly traded firms betas.

  13. Improving operational plume forecasts

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  14. Specific complex of non-radiation risk factors for socially significant pathologies could affect the liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

    Koterov A.N.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The review considers the complex of non-radiation factors that could affect the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: the demographic, social and professional group heterogeneity to warrant differentiation of risk, the effects of heavy metals, 'hot particles', chemicals, psychogenic stress, social dislocation in the post-perestroika period, alcohol abuse, smoking, and the effect of screening. All these factors tend to have a significant intensity, unlike the radiation exposure for the majority of subjects. It is concluded that the increased frequency and severity of some large socially significant pathologies in contingent liquidators may be due to a unique set of predominantly non-radiation factors associated, however, with a particular radiation accident.

  15. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. PMID:25247553

  16. Program of long term immunological monitoring of population groups exposed to risk factors due to Chernobyl accident

    Program for long-term monitoring of health and immune status of people exposed to ionizing radiation during efforts to to eliminate effects of Chernobyl accident and those subjected to radiation factor effect linked with their living within the contanimated territories is considered. Program purpose consists in investigation into non-stochastic and stochastic immunological effects resulting from radiation factor effect under extreme conditions and under prolonged effect of low doses; in acquisition of new data on immune system state during early after the accident and delayed periods in people which took part in recovery efforts during the accident effect elimination and those who live within the controlled territories. Program is directed to early diagnostics of immune-depented pathologic states and other disfunctions of immunity during prenosologic period, and to development and conduction of combined preventive and treatment-and-sanitary measures using immunomodulation

  17. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH

  18. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP ampersand S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP ampersand S configuration are given

  19. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  20. Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations

    P. Block

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at the expense of unrealized benefits. Convincing demonstrations of forecast value are therefore desirable to support assimilation into practice. A dynamically linked system, including forecast, rainfall-runoff, and hydropower models, is applied to the upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia to compare benefits and reliability generated by actual forecasts against a climatology-based approach, commonly practiced in most water resources systems. Processing one hundred decadal sequences demonstrates superior forecast-based benefits in 68 cases, a respectable advancement, however benefits in a few forecast-based sequences are noticeably low, likely to dissuade manager's adoption. A hydropower sensitivity test reveals a propensity toward poor-decision making when forecasts over-predict wet conditions. Tailoring the precipitation forecast to highlight critical dry forecasts minimizes this inclination, resulting in 97% of the sequences favoring the forecast-based approach. Considering managerial risk preferences for the system, even risk-averse actions, if coupled with forecasts, exhibit superior benefits and reliability compared with risk-taking tendencies conditioned on climatology.

  1. Radiation accidents

    Radiation accidents may be viewed as unusual exposure event which provide possible high exposure to a few people and, in the case of nuclear plants events, low exposure to large population. A number of radiation accidents have occurred over the past 50 years, involving radiation machines, radioactive materials and uncontrolled nuclear reactors. These accidents have resulted in number of people have been exposed to a range of internal and external radiation doses and those involving radioactive materials have involved multiple routs of exposure. Some of the more important accidents involving significant radiation doses or releases of radioactive materials, including any known health effects involves in it. An analysis of the common characteristics of accidents is useful resolving overarching issues, as has been done following nuclear power, industrial radiography and medical accidents. Success in avoiding accidents and responding when they do occur requires planning in order to have adequately trained and prepared health physics organization; well defined and developed instrument program; close cooperation among radiation protection experts, local and state authorities. Focus is given to the successful avoidance of accidents and response in the events they do occur. Palomares, spain in late 1960, Goiania, Brazil in 1987, Thule, Greenland in 1968, Rocky flats, Colorado in 1957 and 1969, Three mile island, Pennsylvania in 1979, Chernobyl Ukraine in april 1986, Kyshtym, former Soviet Union in 1957, Windscale, UK in Oct. 1957 Tomsk, Russian Federation in 1993, and many others are the important examples of major radiation accidents. (author)

  2. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix XI. Analysis of comments on the draft WASH-1400 report

    Information is presented concerning comments on reactor safety by governmental agencies and civilian organizations; reactor safety study methodology; consequence model; probability of accident sequences; and various accident conditions

  3. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendices VII, VIII, IX, and X. [PWR and BWR

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the release of radioactivity in reactor accidents; physical processes in reactor meltdown accidents; safety design rationale for nuclear power plants; and design adequacy.

  4. Forecasting with Option-Implied Information

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young

    2013-01-01

    This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function of the......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....

  5. Exposure Forecaster

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  6. ASSESSMENT OF RELIABILITY AND RISK DEGREE FOR ACCIDENT INITIATION AT SLIME STORAGES OF 4th MINING ADMINISTRATION, JSC “BELARUSKALI”

    P. M. Bohaslauchyk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of reliability for dams of slime storage embankment is given on the basis of reliability theory and characteristics of reliability and their analysis are presented in the paper. The paper specifies qualitative indices for earth dams which are subdivided in two groups: applicability factors and structural reliability factors. A short analysis of all possible causes for accident initiation at earth dams has been made and the analysis has permitted to pinpoint eleven main objects for diagnosis for slime storage dams. In order to assess risk degree of accident initiation at JSC “Belaruskali” slime storages all possible causes of emergency cases and their probability of occurrence have been analyzed in the paper. The paper acknowledges the fact that dam malfunction is possible, as a rule, due to violation of operational rules and regulations. Main parameters of slime storage state which are to be controlled regularly in the process of its operation have been noted in the paper. Observation results over slime storages, calculations of dam slope stability for normal operation (a principal calculation case and operating irregularities in water seals (a special calculation case. As a stability margin factor is close to 1.0 for a special calculation case, an extreme position of depression curve has been determined for all design sections. It has been recommended to carry out a constant control over its position, and in the case when it reaches its peak value it is necessary to undertake appropriate measures in order to reduce its value. Final expert estimations on probability of accident initiation at the investigated slime storage dams of the 4th Mining Administration, JSC “Belaruskali” have been prepared on the basis of the analysis comprising all the required factors. A conclusion has been made about low risk degree of their destruction.

  7. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated.

  8. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that fo...... foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  9. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  10. Asthma is a risk factor for acute chest syndrome and cerebral vascular accidents in children with sickle cell disease

    Scott Paul J

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Asthma and sickle cell disease are common conditions that both may result in pulmonary complications. We hypothesized that children with sickle cell disease with concomitant asthma have an increased incidence of vaso-occlusive crises that are complicated by episodes of acute chest syndrome. Methods A 5-year retrospective chart analysis was performed investigating 48 children ages 3–18 years with asthma and sickle cell disease and 48 children with sickle cell disease alone. Children were matched for age, gender, and type of sickle cell defect. Hospital admissions were recorded for acute chest syndrome, cerebral vascular accident, vaso-occlusive pain crises, and blood transfusions (total, exchange and chronic. Mann-Whitney test and Chi square analysis were used to assess differences between the groups. Results Children with sickle cell disease and asthma had significantly more episodes of acute chest syndrome (p = 0.03 and cerebral vascular accidents (p = 0.05 compared to children with sickle cell disease without asthma. As expected, these children received more total blood transfusions (p = 0.01 and chronic transfusions (p = 0.04. Admissions for vasoocclusive pain crises and exchange transfusions were not statistically different between cases and controls. SS disease is more severe than SC disease. Conclusions Children with concomitant asthma and sickle cell disease have increased episodes of acute chest syndrome, cerebral vascular accidents and the need for blood transfusions. Whether aggressive asthma therapy can reduce these complications in this subset of children is unknown and requires further studies.

  11. RADIATION RISKS ASSESSMENT DUE TO CONSUMPTION OF THE FAR EAST FOOD FISH AFTER THE ACCIDENT ON “FUKUSHIMA-1” NPP

    G. G. Onishсhenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a review of the data on radioactivity releases to thePacific Oceanlevels after the Fukushima NPP accident. It is shown that the potential risk of of the seafood contamination with the long-living radionuclides 134Cs and 137Cs, which continue to be released to the Pacific Ocean up to the present time. Contribution of 90Sr to the total radioactive contamination does not exceed 3%. Review of the literature data on the modeling of radioactivity spot diffusion showed that due to the flows in the Pacific Ocean the radioactivity transfer toKamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and the ingress into theOkhotskSeawas expected in 2014. It is expected a slight increase of the cesium concentration in water and sea biota in the area of Russia fishing zone FAO 61, but not higher than the concentrations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea after the Chernobyl accident. Data on measurements of the pollution of fish caught in the Pacific Ocean,JapanandOkhotskSeasin 2011–2014 years during the sea expeditions organized by the Russian Geographical Society, yet showed that the total content of cesium isotopes in any fish sample have not eceeded the value of 0.7 Bq/kg. The prognose risk assessment carried out for the conservative scenario of water contamination in fishing zones ofRussiaand seafood consumption characteristic for the region showed that this risk is minimal according to the WHO scale and does not exceed the risk from fish caughed in Black Sea and Baltic Sea, contaminated after theChernobylaccident, consumption. 

  12. Accident management information needs

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  13. Methods for formulation of design basis accidents within a risk-informed approach to safety regulation of new nuclear power plants

    Within a project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) an investigation is being conducted into creating a risk-informed safety regulatory framework and design process based upon the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In conjunction with efforts to formulate an overall regulatory framework (i.e., reported in PSAM 5 by F. Duran, A. Camp, G. Apostolakis and M. Golay, 'A Framework for Regulatory Requirements and Industry Standards for New Nuclear Power Plants'), this paper addresses the potential role(s) of Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) within this new framework. Currently that role, if any, is unclear. In previous nuclear safety regulatory treatments, DBAs have been of great practical value for both designers and regulators. However, they have suffered from being inconsistently formulated, and lacking fundamental justification. Any DBA set is likely to be formulated uniquely for a specific reactor concept. The staff of any nuclear power plant (NPP) in the U.S. routinely calculates the likelihood of core damage, the likelihood of radioactive release and the likelihood of adverse health effects due to radioactive release. As the accuracy of such estimates improves industry-wide, safety regulators consider weighing these calculated risks more heavily than strict adherence to the prescriptive conservatisms of existing regulations, hence risk-informed regulation. DBAs, despite their prescriptive nature, can remain useful tools for regulators and designers in a risk-informed regulatory framework, providing that they can be formulated in a fashion consistent with the risk profiles of a plant. DBAs also offer the opportunity to take into account factors of uncertainty not captured in a PRA, which are typically addressed via defense-in-depth features and subjective judgements. Designers seeking only to create a plant having a calculated risk below a certain value, while minimizing cost, may find themselves in an inefficient trial-and-error process as they

  14. [Psychogenesis of accidents].

    Giannattasio, E; Nencini, R; Nicolosi, N

    1988-01-01

    After having carried out a historical review of industrial psychology with specific attention to the evolution of the concept of causality in accidents, the Authors formulate their work hypothesis from that research which take into highest consideration the executives' attitudes in the genesis of the accidents. As dogmatism appears to be one of the most negative of executives' attitudes, the Authors administered Rockeach's Scale to 130 intermediate executives from 6 industries in Latium and observed the frequency index for accidents and the morbidity index (absenteeism) of the 2149 workhand. The Authors assumed that to high degree of dogmatism on the executives' side should correspond o a higher level of accidents and absenteeism among the staff. The data processing revealed that, due to the type of machinery employed, three of the industries examined should be considered as High Risk Industrie (HRI), while the remaining three could be considered as Low Risk Industries (LRI): in fact, due to the different working conditions, a significant lower number of accidents occurred in last the three. A statistically significant correlation between the executives' dogmatism and the number of accidents among their workhand in the HRI has been noticed, while this has not been observed in the LRI. This confirms, as had already been pointed out by Gemelli in 1944, that some "objective conditions" are requested so that the accident may actually take place. On the other hand the morbidity index has not shown any difference related to the different kind of industries (HRI, LRI): in both cases statistically significant correlations were obtained between the executives' dogmatism and the staff's absenteeism. absenteeism.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3154344

  15. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  16. Nuclear Accident, Public Attitude and Risk Communication%核事故、公众态度与风险沟通

    田愉; 胡志强

    2012-01-01

    日本福岛核事故发生后,世界各地公众反对核电的呼声增高,这对未来各国制定核电政策将会产生重大影响。综合近年来有关欧美国家公众核电态度状况的调查结果,总结了核事故与公众态度之间的关系的三个特征:核事故的发生是影响公众核电风险认知的重要因素;公众对核电的态度会随着时间的推移有所改变;良好的风险沟通是积极影响公众对核电态度的重要举措。%After the Fukushima accident in Japan, the world's public oppositions to nuclear power are increasing, which affects the world's fu-ture nuclear policy. In recent years, the surveys about public attitudes to nuclear power in Europe and the United States demonstrate the three characters that nuclear accidents related to public attitude, which are: the nuclear accident is the major factor to influence public attitudes to nu- clear power; the attitude of public will change with the passage of tirne; good risk communication is an important positive policy that influences public attitudes to nuclear power.

  17. 海南香蕉产业风险及预警对策研究%Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    刘燕群; 曾小红; 方佳

    2011-01-01

    在概述海南香蕉产业现状的基础上,分析了海南香蕉产业面临的风险,具体包括市场风险、自然灾害、信息风险和生产风险4个方面.为了促进海南香蕉产业持续协调、高速发展,提出了相应的对策:一是加强香蕉产业预警工作的组织领导;二是构建香蕉产业预警机制,具体包括搭建海南香蕉产业预警分级系统、构建香蕉产业信息检测与收集系统、建立信息分析与决策系统以及建设预警信息发布与共享系统4个方面;三是加强香蕉产业应急处置能力建设;四是进一步完善香蕉产业风险防范保障体系;五是加快香蕉标准化生产,提高市场竞争力;六是加快发展中介组织提高产业组织化程度;七是大力开展香蕉创新技术培训,提高香蕉产业科技水平.%Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry, including four aspects. They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry; constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry; establishing information analysis and decision - making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems. The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry. The fourth is to further perfect the risk - defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan. The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence

  18. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  19. Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

    Manuel Sousa Gabrie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

  20. Accident Statistics

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  1. Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility

    Chiriac, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    This paper proposes a methodology for modelling time series of realized covariance matrices in order to forecast multivariate risks. The approach allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns and guarantees positive definiteness of the resulting forecasts without imposing parameter restrictions...... any risk-averse investor, regardless of the type of utility function, would be better-off using our model....

  2. Quantification of the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish boiling water reactors. A scoping study performed for the APRI project

    Okkonen, T.; Dinh, T.N.; Bui, V.A.; Sehgal, B.R. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Systems Technology

    1995-07-01

    Results of a scoping study to quantify the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish BWRs are reported. The study considers that a pool of water is established in the containment prior to vessel failure, as prescribed by the accident management scheme for the newer Swedish BWRs. The integrated methodology developed and employed combines probabilistic and deterministic treatment of the various melt-structure-water interaction processes occurring in sequence. The potential steam explosion, and the melt attack on the containment basemat, are treated with enveloping analyses. Uncertain parameters in the models and the initial conditions are treated with Monte Carlo simulations. Independent models are developed for melt coolability and possible attack on the concrete basemat. It is found that, with current models, the melt discharge scenarios, in which a large amount of accumulated melt may be released from the vessel, could subject the containment to large steam explosion loads. However, the uncertainties are so large that no definite conclusion can be drawn. The assessment of ex-vessel core debris coolability is disturbed by similar phenomenological uncertainties. Presently, coolability of the core debris can not be demonstrated. 133 refs.

  3. Quantification of the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish boiling water reactors. A scoping study performed for the APRI project

    Results of a scoping study to quantify the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish BWRs are reported. The study considers that a pool of water is established in the containment prior to vessel failure, as prescribed by the accident management scheme for the newer Swedish BWRs. The integrated methodology developed and employed combines probabilistic and deterministic treatment of the various melt-structure-water interaction processes occurring in sequence. The potential steam explosion, and the melt attack on the containment basemat, are treated with enveloping analyses. Uncertain parameters in the models and the initial conditions are treated with Monte Carlo simulations. Independent models are developed for melt coolability and possible attack on the concrete basemat. It is found that, with current models, the melt discharge scenarios, in which a large amount of accumulated melt may be released from the vessel, could subject the containment to large steam explosion loads. However, the uncertainties are so large that no definite conclusion can be drawn. The assessment of ex-vessel core debris coolability is disturbed by similar phenomenological uncertainties. Presently, coolability of the core debris can not be demonstrated. 133 refs

  4. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  5. Reasonable Forecasts

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  6. Accidents in nuclear power engineering. Emergency-engineering service and its purposes

    The review of severe accidents in the world practice of NPP operation is given. The problems met when eliminating the Chernobyl' NPP accident effects are discussed. The main purposes of the emergency-engineering service in nuclear power engineering are considered. These are: possible accident forecasting and preparation of the equipment for its effect elimination; prevention of accidents and abnormal situations at nuclear power objects; accident effect liquidation, NPP unit decommissioning. Some directions which development takes the priority, are formulated. 21 refs

  7. Information at radiation accidents

    This study was undertaken in order to plan an information strategy for possible future accidents involving radioactivity. Six health visitors and six farmers working in the districts of Norway which received the largest amounts of fallout from the Chernobyl accident, were interviewed. The questions were intended to give an indication of their knowledge about radioactivity and radiation, as well as their needs for information in case of a future accident. The results indicate a relatively low educational background in radiation physics and risk estimation. On the other hand the two groups showed a remarkable skill and interest in doing their own evaluation on the background of information that was linked to their daily life. It is suggested that planning of information in this field is done in close cooperation with the potential users of the information

  8. Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting of Consumer Credit Default Risk - An Indicator Approach Based on Individual Payment Histories

    Schwarz, Alexandra

    2011-01-01

    The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to the decision of identifying a certain credit as defaulted. Based on a unique data set of individual payment histories this paper proposes a definition of default which is based on the time due amounts a...

  9. Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

    Hernandez, C.; Keribin, C.; Drobinski, P.; Turquety, S.

    2015-12-01

    In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January-June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a "background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system.

  10. Development of a Convection Risk Index to forecast severe weather, and application to predict maximum wind speeds

    Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Wanik, D. W.; Scerbo, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2015-12-01

    We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for seeing the development of thunderstorms. The parameters were combined using a weighted formula and which when calculated, yields the Convection Risk Index 1 to 4 scale, with 4 being the highest risk for seeing strong convection. In addition, we also evaluated the performance of the parameters in the CRM and CRI for predicting the maximum wind speed in areas where we calculated the CRI using nonparametric tree-based model, Bayesian additive trees (BART). The use of the CRI and the predicted wind speeds from BART can be used to better inform emergency preparedness efforts in government and industry.We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for

  11. Thyroid cancers in France and Chernobylsk accident: evaluation of potential risks and recommendations to reinforce the epidemiological knowledge

    This study extends and deepens some aspects of the report on monitoring the health effects of ionizing radiation delivered in 1998 to the Ministries of Health and Environment. An important finding of this study concerns the strengthening of the surveillance of thyroid cancers in France, including its geographic coverage. It is a question of getting a zero point as a basis epidemiological disease surveillance program to a possible nuclear accident. It is also a question of following the evolution of cancers incidence, it is also a question of putting in terms of indicators for monitoring of pathological and medical practices and to have a tool to facilitate the achievement of epidemiological studies to understand the causes of the noted increasing. (N.C.)

  12. Evaluation of radioactivity concentrations from the Fukushima nuclear accident in fish products and associated risk to fish consumers

    Radioactive contamination of the Pacific Ocean following the Fukushima nuclear accident has raised public concerns about seafood safety(1, 2). Many people are wondering whether fish products from the Pacific Ocean and Japan are safe to eat 2 y after the accident. There is also some concern about seafood caught locally, outside of Japan. Based on monitoring data reported in July 2013, radioactive caesium concentrations in fish products from Fukushima and adjacent prefectures are evaluated. Resulting radiation doses from annual consumption at average contamination levels and occasional fish meals at much higher levels of caesium are calculated. To put radiation doses from caesium intake in perspective, comparisons are made to doses from naturally occurring radioactive polonium commonly found in fish. Discussion and conclusions are given subsequently. The Tokyo Electric Power Company has conducted routine radioactivity measurements (134Cs and 137Cs) of various marine fish and shellfish in the ocean area within a 20-km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS). Based on their posted summary on 16 August 2013(3), a total of 100 fish samples were collected from 7 to 23 July, offshore of the FDNPS and outside of its port area. The nuclide analysis report showed that 134Cs was detected in 64 samples with concentrations varying from 3.5 to 130 Bq kg-1. 137Cs was detected in 79 samples and the concentration varied from 3.6 to 260 Bq kg-1. On average, fish and shellfish caught within 20-km offshore of the FDNPS contain 12 Bq kg-1 of 134Cs and 26 Bq kg-1 of 137Cs. The Japanese Fisheries Agency (JFA), in cooperation with the relevant prefectural governments and organisations, has conducted sampling and inspections of fishery products at the major fishing ports in Fukushima and adjacent prefectures on a weekly basis to examine the possible contamination of fishery products by radioactive materials released from the FDNPS. (authors)

  13. Optimized electricity expansions with external costs internalized and risk of severe accidents as a new criterion in the decision analysis

    Martin del Campo M, C.; Estrada S, G. J., E-mail: cmcm@fi-b.unam.mx [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, 62550 Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    The external cost of severe accidents was incorporated as a new element for the assessment of energy technologies in the expansion plans of the Mexican electric generating system. Optimizations of the electric expansions were made by internalizing the external cost into the objective function of the WASP-IV model as a variable cost, and these expansions were compared with the expansion plans that did not internalize them. Average external costs reported by the Extern E Project were used for each type of technology and were added to the variable component of operation and maintenance cost in the study cases in which the externalises were internalized. Special attention was paid to study the convenience of including nuclear energy in the generating mix. The comparative assessment of six expansion plans was made by means of the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis (PVMRA) decision analysis tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider internal costs, economical impact associated with incremental fuel prices, diversity, external costs, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and external costs of severe accidents. A set of data for the calculation of the last criterion was obtained from a Report of the European Commission. We found that with the external costs included in the optimization process of WASP-IV, better electric expansion plans, with lower total (internal + external) generating costs, were found. On the other hand, the plans which included the participation of nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not. (Author)

  14. Optimized electricity expansions with external costs internalized and risk of severe accidents as a new criterion in the decision analysis

    The external cost of severe accidents was incorporated as a new element for the assessment of energy technologies in the expansion plans of the Mexican electric generating system. Optimizations of the electric expansions were made by internalizing the external cost into the objective function of the WASP-IV model as a variable cost, and these expansions were compared with the expansion plans that did not internalize them. Average external costs reported by the Extern E Project were used for each type of technology and were added to the variable component of operation and maintenance cost in the study cases in which the externalises were internalized. Special attention was paid to study the convenience of including nuclear energy in the generating mix. The comparative assessment of six expansion plans was made by means of the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis (PVMRA) decision analysis tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider internal costs, economical impact associated with incremental fuel prices, diversity, external costs, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and external costs of severe accidents. A set of data for the calculation of the last criterion was obtained from a Report of the European Commission. We found that with the external costs included in the optimization process of WASP-IV, better electric expansion plans, with lower total (internal + external) generating costs, were found. On the other hand, the plans which included the participation of nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not. (Author)

  15. Radiation risk perception by radiation professionals. Survey results just before the radiological accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals belonging to the radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they consider as a 'safe' dose of radiation for themselves, their spouse, parents, children, brothers and friends. Although the 'safe' dose varied widely from less than 1 mSv/y to higher than 100 mSv/y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv/y that was around the middle point between the exposure dose limits for annual average (20 mSv/y) and for any single year (50 mSv/y). Similar results were obtained from another surveys for the members of Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv/y) and for the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv/y). Among the family members and friends, the minimum average 'safe' dose was 8.5 mSv/y for children, to whom 50% of responders claimed the 'safe' dose less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the responder also affected the 'safe' dose. These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely and that the legal exposure dose limit derived from the regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety even in radiation professionals. The different level of risk perception for different target groups in radiation professionals appears similar to those in non-professional whole population. The gap between these characteristics of real radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might take a part in a state of confusion after the radiological accident. (author)

  16. SONARC: A Sea Ice Monitoring and Forecasting System to Support Safe Operations and Navigation in Arctic Seas

    Stephenson, S. R.; Babiker, M.; Sandven, S.; Muckenhuber, S.; Korosov, A.; Bobylev, L.; Vesman, A.; Mushta, A.; Demchev, D.; Volkov, V.; Smirnov, K.; Hamre, T.

    2015-12-01

    Sea ice monitoring and forecasting systems are important tools for minimizing accident risk and environmental impacts of Arctic maritime operations. Satellite data such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), combined with atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting models, navigation models and automatic identification system (AIS) transponder data from ships are essential components of such systems. Here we present first results from the SONARC project (project term: 2015-2017), an international multidisciplinary effort to develop novel and complementary ice monitoring and forecasting systems for vessels and offshore platforms in the Arctic. Automated classification methods (Zakhvatkina et al., 2012) are applied to Sentinel-1 dual-polarization SAR images from the Barents and Kara Sea region to identify ice types (e.g. multi-year ice, level first-year ice, deformed first-year ice, new/young ice, open water) and ridges. Short-term (1-3 days) ice drift forecasts are computed from SAR images using feature tracking and pattern tracking methods (Berg & Eriksson, 2014). Ice classification and drift forecast products are combined with ship positions based on AIS data from a selected period of 3-4 weeks to determine optimal vessel speed and routing in ice. Results illustrate the potential of high-resolution SAR data for near-real-time monitoring and forecasting of Arctic ice conditions. Over the next 3 years, SONARC findings will contribute new knowledge about sea ice in the Arctic while promoting safe and cost-effective shipping, domain awareness, resource management, and environmental protection.

  17. Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

    2014-09-01

    Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

  18. Light water reactor severe accident seminar. Seminar presentation manual

    The topics covered in this manual on LWR severe accidents were: Evolution of Source Term Definition and Analysis, Current Position on Severe Accident Phenomena, Current Position on Fission Product Behavior, Overview of Software Models Used in Severe Accident Analysis, Overview of Plant Specific Source Terms and Their Impact on Risk, Current Applications of Severe Accident Analysis, and Future plans

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS WITH OIL ON RAILWAY TRANSPORT

    Yu. V. Zelenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The principles of estimation of losses to the environment components caused by the emergency spills of petroleum products and the methodical approaches to estimation of ecological risk of functioning of railways are offered.

  20. Ecological Forecasting of West Nile Virus Outbreaks in a High-Risk Area of the North-Central United States

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Kightlinger, L.; Vincent, G.; Hildreth, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread and important mosquito-borne pathogen in North America. Since its emergence in the western hemisphere in 1999, human WNV disease has continued to exhibit recurrent outbreaks. Perplexingly, the incidence of this tropical disease has been highest in the cold-temperate climates of the Northern Great Plains (NGP). The spatial and temporal distributions of the vector mosquitoes and bird hosts, and consequently the risk of disease in humans, are strongly influenced by temperature, precipitation, vegetation, soils, and land use. We have utilized satellite remote sensing to map these environmental factors through time and develop models of disease risk. Outbreak years in South Dakota were preceded by warm winters, and WNV cases were most likely to occur during the hottest weeks of summer. Hot spots of persistent WNV transmission within the state were associated with rural land cover as well as patterns of physiography and climate. These models are currently being integrated into the South Dakota Mosquito Early Warning system (SDMIS), an automated WNV outbreak detection system that integrates remotely-sensed environmental indicators with vector abundance and infection data from a statewide mosquito surveillance network. The major goal of this effort is to leverage global environmental monitoring datasets to provide up-to-date, locally relevant information that can improve the effectiveness of mosquito control and disease prevention activities. This system was implemented for the first time during the summer of 2015. We will review the outcomes of this implementation, including the underlying influences of temperature on WNV risk, a preliminary statewide WNV risk map, and dynamic risk predictions made during the 2015 WNV season. Lessons learned as well as plans for future years will be discussed.