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Sample records for accident consequence analysis

  1. Hanford Waste Tank Bump Accident and Consequence Analysis

    BRATZEL, D.R.

    2000-06-20

    This report provides a new evaluation of the Hanford tank bump accident analysis and consequences for incorporation into the Authorization Basis. The analysis scope is for the safe storage of waste in its current configuration in single-shell and double-shell tanks.

  2. Hanford Waste Tank Bump Accident and Consequence Analysis

    This report provides a new evaluation of the Hanford tank bump accident analysis and consequences for incorporation into the Authorization Basis. The analysis scope is for the safe storage of waste in its current configuration in single-shell and double-shell tanks

  3. OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS FOR THE BOUNDING FLAMMABLE GAS ACCIDENT

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a SST. The calculation applies reasonably conservative input parameters in accordance with guidance in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety-class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST). A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. A detonation in an SST versus a double-shell tank (DST) was selected as the bounding accident because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes

  4. Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safety analysis

    This document describes the calculations performed to determine the accident consequences for the W-058 safety analysis. Project W-058 is the replacement cross site transfer system (RCSTS), which is designed to transort liquid waste between the 200 W and 200 E areas. Calculations for RCSTS safety analyses used the same methods as the calculations for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) and its supporting calculation notes. Revised analyses were performed for the spray and pool leak accidents since the RCSTS flows and pressures differ from those assumed in the TWRS BIO. Revision 1 of the document incorporates review comments

  5. A general approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences analysis

    Bogalecka, Magda; Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the process of the models of initiating events generated by its accident, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation is presented.

  6. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

    The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST). A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes

  7. PERSPECTIVES ON A DOE CONSEQUENCE INPUTS FOR ACCIDENT ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS

    (NOEMAIL), K; Jonathan Lowrie, J; David Thoman (NOEMAIL), D; Austin Keller (NOEMAIL), A

    2008-07-30

    Department of Energy (DOE) accident analysis for establishing the required control sets for nuclear facility safety applies a series of simplifying, reasonably conservative assumptions regarding inputs and methodologies for quantifying dose consequences. Most of the analytical practices are conservative, have a technical basis, and are based on regulatory precedent. However, others are judgmental and based on older understanding of phenomenology. The latter type of practices can be found in modeling hypothetical releases into the atmosphere and the subsequent exposure. Often the judgments applied are not based on current technical understanding but on work that has been superseded. The objective of this paper is to review the technical basis for the major inputs and assumptions in the quantification of consequence estimates supporting DOE accident analysis, and to identify those that could be reassessed in light of current understanding of atmospheric dispersion and radiological exposure. Inputs and assumptions of interest include: Meteorological data basis; Breathing rate; and Inhalation dose conversion factor. A simple dose calculation is provided to show the relative difference achieved by improving the technical bases.

  8. Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safety analysis

    Accident consequence analyses have been performed for Project W-058, the Replacement Cross Site Transfer System. using the assumption and analysis techniques developed for the Tank Remediation Waste system Basis for Interim Operation. most potential accident involving the FISTS are bounded by the TWRS BIO analysis. However, the spray leak and pool leak scenarios require revised analyses since the RCSTS design utilizes larger diameter pipe and higher pressures than those analyzed in the TWRS BIO. Also the volume of diversion box and vent station are larger than that assumed for the valve pits in the TWRS BIO, which effects results of sprays or spills into the pits. the revised analysis for the spray leak is presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the subsurface spill forming a pool in Section 4, and for the subsurface pool remaining subsurface in Section 5. The conclusion from these sections are summarized below

  9. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding aircraft crash accident

    The purpose of this calculation note is to quantitatively analyze a bounding aircraft crash accident for comparison to the DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', Appendix A, Evaluation Guideline of 25 rem. The potential of aircraft impacting a facility was evaluated using the approach given in DOE-STD-3014-96, ''Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities''. The following aircraft crash FR-equencies were determined for the Tank Farms in RPP-11736, ''Assessment Of Aircraft Crash FR-equency For The Hanford Site 200 Area Tank Farms'': (1) The total aircraft crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (2) The general aviation crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (3) The helicopter crash FR-equency is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' (4) For the Hanford Site 200 Areas, other aircraft type, commercial or military, each above ground facility, and any other type of underground facility is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' As the potential of aircraft crash into the 200 Area tank farms is more FR-equent than ''beyond extremely unlikely,'' consequence analysis of the aircraft crash is required

  10. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

  11. Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

    Carro, C A

    2003-01-01

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

  12. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

  13. Health effects estimation code development for accident consequence analysis

    As part of a computer code system for nuclear reactor accident consequence analysis, two computer codes have been developed for estimating health effects expected to occur following an accident. Health effects models used in the codes are based on the models of NUREG/CR-4214 and are revised for the Japanese population on the basis of the data from the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry and information derived from epidemiological studies on atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The health effects models include early and continuing effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects. The values of some model parameters are revised for early mortality. The models are modified for predicting late somatic effects such as leukemia and various kinds of cancers. The models for genetic effects are the same as those of NUREG. In order to test the performance of one of these codes, it is applied to the U.S. and Japanese populations. This paper provides descriptions of health effects models used in the two codes and gives comparisons of the mortality risks from each type of cancer for the two populations. (author)

  14. The Influence of Seasonal Characteristics on the Accident Consequences Analysis

    In order to examine the influence of seasonal characteristics on accident consequences, we defined a limited number of basic spectra based on the relative importance of source term release parameters and meteorological conditions on offsite health effects and economic impacts. We then investigated the variation in numbers and frequency of early health effects and economic impacts resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3 and 4 nuclear power plants from spectrum to spectrum by using MACCS code. These investigations were for meteorological conditions defined as typical on an annual basis. Also, we investigated the variation in numbers and frequency of early health effects and economic impacts for the same standard spectra for meteorological conditions defined as typical on a seasonal basis recognizing that there are four seasons with distinct meteorological characteristics. Results show that there are large differences in consequences from spectrum to spectrum, although an equal amount and mix of radioactive material is released to the atmosphere in each case. Therefore, release parameters and meteorological data have to be well characterized in order to estimate accident consequences resulting from an accident accurately. Also, there are large differences in the estimated number of health effects and economic impacts from season to season due to distinct seasonal variations in meteorological conditions in Korea. In fall, the early fatalities and early fatality risk show minimum values due to enhanced dispersion arising from increased atmospheric instability, and the early fatalities show maximum value in summer due to a large rainfall rate. On the contrast, the economic cost shows maximum value in fall and minimum in summer due to different atmospheric dispersion and rainfall rate. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing emergency response strategies for reducing offsite early health risks in the event of a severe

  15. The Chernobyl accident consequences

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  16. An Analysis of the Cumulative Uncertainty Associated with a Quantitative Consequence Assessment of a Major Accident

    JIRSA PAVEL

    2005-01-01

    The task of the article is to quantify the uncertainty of the possible results of the accident consequence assessment of the chemical production plant and to provide some description of potentional problems with literature references and examples to help to avoid the erroneous use of available formulas. Based on numbers presented in the article we may conclude, that the main source of uncertainty in the consequence analysis of chemical accident assessment is surprisingly not only the dispers...

  17. Accidents, risks and consequences

    Although the accident at Chernobyl can be considered as the worst accident in the world, it could have been worse. Other far worse situations are considered, such as a nuclear weapon hitting a nuclear reactor. Indeed the accident at Chernobyl is compared to a nuclear weapon. The consequences of Chernobyl in terms of radiation levels are discussed. Although it is believed that a similar accident could not occur in the United Kingdom, that possibility is considered. It is suggested that emergency plans should be made for just such an eventuality. Even if Chernobyl could not happen in the UK, the effects of accidents are international. The way in which nuclear reactor accidents happen is explored, taking the 1957 Windscale fire, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl as examples. Reactor designs and accident scenarios are considered. The different reactor designs are listed. As well as the Chernobyl RBMK design it is suggested that the light water reactors also have undesirable features from the point of view of safety. (U.K.)

  18. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  19. Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

    Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

  20. Overview of Sandia National Laboratories and Khlopin Radium Institute collaborative radiological accident consequence analysis efforts

    In January, 1995 a collaborative effort to improve radiological consequence analysis methods and tools was initiated between the V.G. Khlopin Institute (KRI) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The purpose of the collaborative effort was to transfer SNL's consequence analysis methods to KRI and identify opportunities for collaborative efforts to solve mutual problems relating to the safety of radiochemical facilities. A second purpose was to improve SNL's consequence analysis methods by incorporating the radiological accident field experience of KRI scientists (e.g. the Chernobyl and Kyshtym accidents). The initial collaborative effort focused on the identification of: safety criteria that radiochemical facilities in Russia must meet; analyses/measures required to demonstrate that safety criteria have been met; and data required to complete the analyses/measures identified to demonstrate the safety basis of a facility

  1. Accidents, probabilities and consequences

    Following brief discussion of the safety of wind-driven power plants and solar power plants, some aspects of the safety of fast breeder and thermonuclear power plants are presented. It is pointed out that no safety evaluation of breeders comparable to the Rasmussen investigation has been carried out and that discussion of the safety aspects of thermonuclear power is only just begun. Finally, as an illustration of the varying interpretations of risk and safety analyses, four examples are given of predicted probabilities and consequences in Copenhagen of the maximum credible accident at the Barsebaeck plant, under the most unfavourable meterological conditions. These are made by the Environment Commission, Risoe Research Establishment, REO (a pro-nuclear group) and OOA (an anti-nuclear group), and vary by a factor of over 1000. (JIW)

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

  4. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  5. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Whole Program Package COSYMA (invited paper)

    The overall uncertainty analysis of the program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological consequences of nuclear accidents builds on the results of a series of individual uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of its submodules. A set of 186 model parameters was identified which contribute most to the uncertainties of endpoints. Probabilistic accident consequence assessments with 144 weather sequences were performed for each of 300 sample sets derived from the uncertainty distributions of these parameters by Latin hypercube sampling. The evaluation of the results provided confidence bounds for the complementary cumulative frequency distributions of endpoints for three different source terms covering a wide range of release fractions. Concluding sensitivity analyses identified the most important model parameters responsible for the uncertainties of endpoints. (author)

  6. Techniques Applied in the COSYMA Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (invited paper)

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis studies for the program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological consequences of nuclear accidents have been performed to obtain a deeper insight into the propagation of parameter uncertainties through different submodules and to quantify their contribution to uncertainty and sensitivity in a final overall uncertainty analysis of the complete program system COSYMA. Some strategies are given for performing uncertainty analysis runs for submodules and/or the complete complex program system COSYMA and guidelines explain how to post-process and to reduce the bulk of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results. (author)

  7. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Johnson, J.D. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McKay, M.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion.

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion

  11. Development of an accident consequence analysis program based on the object oriented programming technique

    The KAERI accident consequence analysis program KAPAC is being developed on the basis of reusable objects in PPAM (platform for the development of plant analysis and management codes). Development of PPAM is being conducted at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) in order to be able to provide portability and reusability of computer codes, and consistent user interface in developing software with the use of object oriented programming (OOP) under a Microsoft Windows environment. By constructing the platform, software development can benefit from a shorter development cycle and an easier validation and verification process. 1 ref., 2 figs

  12. Consequence analysis

    The objectives of this paper are to: Provide a realistic assessment of consequences; Account for plant and site-specific characteristics; Adjust accident release characteristics to account for results of plant-containment analysis; Produce conditional risk curves for each of five health effects; and Estimate uncertainties

  13. Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

    Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance

  14. Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

    Lim, Heoksoon; Bhang, Giin; Na, Janghwan; Ban, Jaeha; Kim, Myungsu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season

  16. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A. [Gram, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  19. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  20. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  1. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  2. Expert Judgement for a Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (invited paper)

    The development of two probabilistic accident consequence codes sponsored by the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, COSYMA and MACCS respectively, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks and other endpoints associated with accidents from hypothesised nuclear installations. In 1991, both Commissions sponsored a joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes. The main objective of this joint project was systematically to derive credible and traceable probability distributions for the respective code input variables. These input distributions will subsequently be used in two uncertainty analyses for each code separately. A formal expert judgement elicitation and evacuation process was used as the best available technique to accomplish that objective. This paper shows the overall process and reports on experiences of elicitors and experts of the eight expert judgement exercises performed under the joint study. (author)

  3. Accident consequence analysis models applied to licensing process of nuclear installations, radioactive and conventional industries

    The industrial accidents happened in the last years, particularly in the eighty's decade, had contributed in a significant way to call the attention to government authorities, industry and society as a whole, demanding mechanisms for preventing episodes that could affect people's safety and environment quality. Techniques and methods already thoroughly used in the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries were then adapted for performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. Some models for analyzing the consequences of accidents involving fire and explosion, used in the licensing processes of nuclear and radioactive facilities, are presented in this paper. These models have also application in the licensing of conventional industrial facilities. (author)

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  6. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project

  7. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project

  8. Accident consequence assessment code development

    This paper describes the new computer code system, OSCAAR developed for off-site consequence assessment of a potential nuclear accident. OSCAAR consists of several modules which have modeling capabilities in atmospheric transport, foodchain transport, dosimetry, emergency response and radiological health effects. The major modules of the consequence assessment code are described, highlighting the validation and verification of the models. (author)

  9. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    The techniques currently used in off-site consequence modelling are applied to the Chernobyl accident. Firstly, the time dependent spread of radioactive material across the European continent is considered, followed by a preliminary assessment of the dosimetric impact (in terms of collective and mean individual doses) on the various countries of Eastern and Western Europe. The consequences of the accident in the USSR are also discussed. Finally, the likely implications of the Chernobyl event on research in the field of environmental consequence assessment are outlined. (author)

  10. Analysis for relocation strategy using the method of probabilistic accident consequence assessment

    Relocation is one of the long-term protective actions in case of nuclear emergency to mitigate the consequences of an accidental release of radionuclides. The strategy of relocation is characterized by its protective benefit, cost and the corresponding residual dose in planning. This paper describes the application of a probabilistic accident consequence assessment model to the calculation of these quantities and the planning of relocation. Calculations of the consequence have been made of a postulated accident with source terms derived from a generic level 2 PSA. The results provided the insights for the development optimum dose criteria for introducing and terminating relocation. (author)

  11. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Dose Calculations Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    Uncertainty analysis of the dose calculation module of the COSYMA accident consequence assessment code has been undertaken, involving the following steps: (1) Expert judgement techniques were applied to assess uncertainties in measurable parameters determining external and internal doses. (2) The data obtained were used to calculate distributions on the dose quantities required as code input parameters. (3) The effect of uncertainties in dose quantities was analysed for a range of COSYMA end points, including the extent of countermeasures and incidences of early and late health effects, and the most important uncertainties were identified for inclusion in an overall uncertainty analysis of COSYMA. Parameters identified as making the largest contributions to uncertainty included external doses and location factors, residence times of materials on skin, breathing rates, and respiratory tract deposition and retention parameters, for the extent of countermeasures and early health effects, and caesium and iodine retention parameters for late effects. (author)

  12. Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

    Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.)

  13. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Takahashi, Tomoyuki [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Yonehara, Hidenori [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)] [eds.

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  14. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  15. Medical consequences of radiation accidents

    Since 1945, more than 1.8 x 1021 Bq of artificial radionuclides have been released into the atmosphere. Approximately 2.04 x 1018B, i.e. approx. 0.11%, are the result of accidents at nuclear industrial facilities. This percentage is causing increased interest among researchers. This is due to the fact that in the wake of accidental release radionuclides become distributed unevenly across the Earth's surface, and the associated exposures, fluctuating from background level to several grays, an induce both stochastic and deterministic effects in the irradiated population. A comparative analysis of the medical consequences of the twentieth century's most serious nuclear events, namely the authorized dumping of high level radioactive waste into the river Techa in 1950, the explosion of a storage tank containing long lived radioactive waste in the Southern Urals in 1957, the fire at Sellafield in 1957 and the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986, has shown that when timely countermeasures are taken, the worst immediate and delayed medical consequences of an accident can be avoided. The consequences that have since been ascertained are a brief rise in the mortality rate during the first five years, with a dose in excess of 500 mSv; an increase in the incidence of leukaemia, with an absolute risk of up to 1.1. x 10-4 man·years/Gy; and increased mortality among children with external radiation doses of up to 1000 mSv, and internal doses of 99-190 mSv on the bone surfaces of neonates or 170-600 mSv on the bone surfaces of the mother. There is reliable evidence that, with external gamma radiation doses in excess of 520 mSv, the mortality rate for all malignant tumorous increases by 45-58% compared with the control level. There is also a significant increase in thyroid cancer frequency four to ten years after the incorporation of iodine isotopes by children aged up to 7 years, including an accumulation period in the womb. (author). 12 refs, 7 tabs

  16. Degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR: A sensitivity analysis of the radiological consequences

    The radiological impact of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR was assessed in an earlier study. In this report the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to variation in the values of a number of important parameters is investigated for one of the postulated accidental releases. The parameters subjected to sensitivity analyses are the dose-mortality relationship for bone marrow irradiation, the energy content of the release, the warning time before the release to the environment, and the dry deposition velocity for airborne material. These parameters were identified as among the more important in determining the uncertainty in the results obtained in the initial study. With a few exceptions the predicted consequences were found to be not very sensitive to the parameter values investigated, the range of variation in the consequences for the limiting values of each parameter rarely exceeded a factor of a few and in many cases was considerably less. The conclusions reached are, however, particular to the releases analysed from Sizewell; for different releases from different locations the sensitivity may change significantly. In the earlier study and analysis was undertaken of the impact on the predicted consequences of potential overestimates in the release fractions of radionuclides. Since the results of that study were published some relatively minor numerical errors have been identified. While none of these affects the conclusions reached in that study the opportunity has been taken in this report to present revised values for those results known to be in error. This revised text and results are presented as an appendix to this report and they replace the corresponding material in the earlier study. (author)

  17. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses

  19. Critique of and Limitations on the Use of Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (invited paper)

    Accident consequence models are designed primarily to be used in support of siting and licensing decisions. To use these models, the analyst inevitably requires some input from experts. Equally, to understand the implication of the models, the analyst needs to explore their sensitivity to the inputs and uncertainty analysis is a key tool in doing this. In this paper, the interplay between these two aspects of the use of accident consequence models is considered, paying particular attention to issues and limitations that require further research in the coming years. (author)

  20. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Early Health Effects Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    The accuracy of models that are used to calculate the risk from early health effects due to exposure to a large dose of radiation from radioactive materials has been investigated. Early health effects are radiation diseases that occur within six weeks after the exposure. The present investigation provides data needed for subsequent analysis of the accuracy of estimates of the risks from nuclear power plant accidents (accident consequence assessments). By means of a formal expert elicitation procedure, for a limited number of exposure cases, a set of data has been obtained that quantifies the accuracy of risk estimates for early health effects. These data have been implemented in the generic models for calculating the risk and the accuracy of the calculated risk. These generic models are currently applied in accident consequence assessments. (author)

  1. Degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR A sensitivity analysis of the radiological consequences

    Kelly, G N; Clarke, R H; Ferguson, L; Haywood, S M; Hemming, C R; Jones, J A

    1982-01-01

    The radiological impact of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR was assessed in an earlier study. In this report the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to variation in the values of a number of important parameters is investigated for one of the postulated accidental releases. The parameters subjected to sensitivity analyses are the dose-mortality relationship for bone marrow irradiation, the energy content of the release, the warning time before the release to the environment, and the dry deposition velocity for airborne material. These parameters were identified as among the more important in determining the uncertainty in the results obtained in the initial study. With a few exceptions the predicted consequences were found to be not very sensitive to the parameter values investigated, the range of variation in the consequences for the limiting values of each parameter rarely exceeded a factor of a few and in many cases was considerably less. The conclusions reached are, however, p...

  2. Analysis for mechanical consequences of a core disruptive accident in Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor

    The mechanical consequences of a core disruptive accident (CDA) in a fast breeder reactor are described. The consequences are development of deformations and strains in the vessels, intermediate heat exchangers (IHX) and decay heat exchangers (DHX), impact of sodium slug on the bottom surface of the top shield, sodium release to reactor containment building through top shield penetrations, sodium fire and consequent temperature and pressure rise in reactor containment building (RCB). These are quantified for 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for a CDA with 100 MJ work potential. The results are validated by conducting a series of experiments on 1/30 and 1/13 scaled down models with increasing complexities. Mechanical energy release due to nuclear excursion is simulated by chemical explosion of specially developed low density explosive charge. Based on these studies, structural integrity of primary containment, IHX and DHX is demonstrated. The sodium release to RCB is 350 kg which causes pressure rise of 12 kPa in RCB. (author)

  3. Uncertainty analysis with a view towards applications in accident consequence assessments

    Since the publication of the US-Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 there has been an increasing interest to develop and apply methods which allow to quantify the uncertainty inherent in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and accident consequence assessments (ACAs) for installations of the nuclear fuel cycle. Research and development in this area is forced by the fact that PRA and ACA are more and more used for comparative, decisive and fact finding studies initiated by industry and regulatory commissions. This report summarizes and reviews some of the main methods and gives some hints to do sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Some first investigations aiming at the application of the method mentioned above to a submodel of the ACA-code UFOMOD (KfK) are presented. Sensitivity analyses and some uncertainty studies an important submodel of UFOMOD are carried out to identify the relevant parameters for subsequent uncertainty calculations. (orig./HP)

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G

  6. Accident consequences analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    Reyes, S; Gomez del Rio, J; Sanz, J

    2000-02-23

    Previous studies of the safety and environmental (S and E) aspects of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plant design have used simplistic assumptions in order to estimate radioactivity releases under accident conditions. Conservatisms associated with these traditional analyses can mask the actual behavior of the plant and have revealed the need for more accurate modeling and analysis of accident conditions and radioactivity mobilization mechanisms. In the present work a set of computer codes traditionally used for magnetic fusion safety analyses (CHEMCON, MELCOR) has been applied for simulating accident conditions in a simple model of the HYLIFE-II IFE design. Here the authors consider a severe lost of coolant accident (LOCA) producing simultaneous failures of the beam tubes (providing a pathway for radioactivity release from the vacuum vessel towards the containment) and of the two barriers surrounding the chamber (inner shielding and containment building it self). Even though containment failure would be a very unlikely event it would be needed in order to produce significant off-site doses. CHEMCON code allows calculation of long-term temperature transients in fusion reactor first wall, blanket, and shield structures resulting from decay heating. MELCOR is used to simulate a wide range of physical phenomena including thermal-hydraulics, heat transfer, aerosol physics and fusion product release and transport. The results of these calculations show that the estimated off-site dose is less than 6 mSv (0.6 rem), which is well below the value of 10 mSv (1 rem) given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for protection of the public from exposure to radiation during off-normal conditions.

  7. Internal dose coefficients for off-site radiological consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    The OSCAAR computer code for use in probabilistic accident consequence assessment (Level 3PSA) developed at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has calculated dose to the public with internal dose conversion factors based on dosimetric models and biokinetic data provided in International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 30. Since ICRP issued age-dependent biokinetic models for a limited set of radioisotopes are ICRP Publication 56, a new Human Respiratory Tract model, age-dependent biokinetic model for other radioisotopes and urinary and faecal excretion models were issued. ICRP has published age-dependent internal dose coefficients for a large set of radionuclides in its publications, but they provided only committed effective dose coefficients for inhalation and ingestion. Since OSCAAR estimated acute and late health effects for members of the public, it needs internal dose coefficients for specific tissues and organs in arbitrary integration times. This report describes a preprocessor code DSYS developed for use with OSCAAR for calculating inhalation and ingestion dose coefficients based on these new ICRP models. It also provides the internal dose coefficients for 54 radionuclides used in OSCAAR calculations. (author)

  8. Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

    The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes

  10. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  11. Psychiatric consequences of road traffic accidents.

    Mayou, R; Bryant, B.; Duthie, R

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To determine the psychiatric consequences of being a road traffic accident victim. DESIGN--Follow up study of road accident victims for up to one year. SETTING--Emergency department of the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford. SUBJECTS--188 consecutive road accident victims aged 18-70 with multiple injuries (motorcycle or car) or whiplash neck injury, who had not been unconscious for more than 15 minutes, and who lived in the catchment area. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Present state examinat...

  12. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    A collection of three papers about the fallout in Austria from the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident is given: 1. An overview of the research projects in Austria; 2. On the transfer into and uptake by crops and animal fodder; 3. On the reduction of cesium concentration in food. 18 tabs., 21 figs., 69 refs

  13. Chernobylsk accident (Causes and Consequences)- Part 2

    The causes and consequences of the nuclear accident at Chernobylsk-4 reactor are shortly described. The informations were provided by Russian during the specialist meeting, carried out at seat of IAEA. The Russian nuclear panorama; the site, nuclear power plant characteristics and sequence of events; the immediate measurements after accident; monitoring/radioactive releases; environmental contamination and ecological consequences; measurements of emergency; recommendations to increase the nuclear safety; and recommendations of work groups, are presented. (M.C.K.)

  14. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    This project reviewed the literature on the economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system before closure; determined needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system; and gathered data that might be useful for the needed revisions. 8 refs., 1 tab

  15. The consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

    After the decay of the iodine isotopes the measuring campaigns, in addition to the measuring of soil pollution and pollution of products, concentrated on the way of the cesium isotopes through the food chain, especially in crops, milk, meat and mother's milk. A special programme was developed for the analysis of foreign basic substances for teas, essences and tinctures. In connection with the incorporation measurements in the university hospital Eppendorf the measurement campaigns provided the data material in order to calculate with the aid of the computer program ECOSYS of the GSF the effective dose equivalent which the inhabitants of Hamburg additionally take up due to the accident of Chernobyl. Consequences with regard to measuring methods and social consequences are mentioned. (DG)

  16. Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Galstyan I.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

  17. Accident simulation and consequence analysis in support of MHTGR safety evaluations

    This paper summarizes research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in preliminary determinations of licensability of the US Department of Energy (DOE) reference design of a standard modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). The work described includes independent analyses of core heatup and steam ingress accidents and the reviews and analyses of fuel performance and fission product transport technology

  18. Accident simulation and consequence analysis in support of MHTGR safety evaluations

    This paper summarizes research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in preliminary determinations of licensability of the US Department of Energy (DOE) reference design of a standard modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). The work described includes independent analyses of core heatup and steam ingress accidents, and the reviews and analyses of fuel performance and fission product transport technology

  19. The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Greece

    In this report the radioactive fallout on Greece from the Chernobyl nuclear accident is described. The flow pattern to Greece of the radioactive materials released, the measurements performed on environmental samples and samples of the food chain, as well as some estimations of the population doses and of the expected consequences of the accident are presented. The analysis has shown that the radiological impact of the accident in Greece can be considered minor. (J.K.)

  20. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    Evans, J.S. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Abrahmson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gilbert, E.S. [Battelle Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  1. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard University (NUREG/CR-4214). These models are revised on the basis of the new information on risk estimates by the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The models deal with the following effects: (1) early effects models for bone marrow, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, central nervous system, thyroid, skin and reproductive organs, using the Weibull function, (2) late somatic effects models including leukemia and cancers of breast, lungs, thyroid, gastrointestinal tract and so forth, on the basis of the information derived from epidemiological studies on the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, (3) models for late and developmental effects due to exposure in utero. (author)

  2. Estimation of cost per severe accident for improvement of accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies

    To assess the complex situations regarding the severe accidents such as what observed in Fukushima Accident, not only radiation protection aspects but also relevant aspects: health, environmental, economic and societal aspects; must be all included into the consequence assessment. In this study, the authors introduce the “cost per severe accident” as an index to analyze the consequences of severe accidents comprehensively. The cost per severe accident consists of various costs and consequences converted into monetary values. For the purpose of improvement of the accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies, the costs needed to introduce the protective actions, and health and psychological consequences are included in the present study. The evaluations of these costs and consequences were made based on the systematic consequence analysis using level 2 and 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) codes. The accident sequences used in this analysis were taken from the results of level 2 seismic PSA of a virtual 1,100 MWe BWR-5. The doses to the public and the number of people affected were calculated using the level 3 PSA code OSCAAR of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The calculations have been made for 248 meteorological sequences, and the outputs are given as expectation values for various meteorological conditions. Using these outputs, the cost per severe accident is calculated based on the open documents on the Fukushima Accident regarding the cost of protective actions and compensations for psychological harms. Finally, optimized accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies are recommended taking into account the various aspects comprehensively using the cost per severe accident. The authors must emphasize that the aim is not to estimate the accident cost itself but to extend the scope of “risk-informed decision making” for continuous safety improvements of nuclear energy. (author)

  3. Analysis of medico-biological consequences of ChNPP accident for liquidators-participants of the Russian scientific centre

    A base of medico-biological and dosimetric data was created for research workers of Kurchatov Institute, and Institute of nuclear reactors who participated in ChNPP accident mitigation. An attempt is made to analyze possible connection of medico-biological consequences with dose loads

  4. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other.'' The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs

  5. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  6. The Chernobyl nuclear accident and its consequences

    An AAEC Task Group was set up shortly after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant to monitor and evaluate initial reports and to assess the implications for Australia. The Task Group issued a preliminary report on 9 May 1986. On 25-29 August 1986, the USSR released details of the accident and its consequences and further information has become available from the Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD and the World Health Organisation. The Task Group now presents a revised report summarising this information and commenting on the consequences from the Australian viewpoint

  7. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Food Chain Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    This paper describes the uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA and the uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values for the food chain model provided by the expert panels that were used for the analysis. Two expert panels were convened, covering the areas of soil and plant transfer processes and transfer to and through animals. The aggregated uncertainty distributions from the experts for the elicited variables were used in an uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA. The main aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes large contributions to the overall uncertainty and so should be included in the overall analysis. (author)

  8. Health consequences of nuclear accidents

    The author first outlines that no exposure of mankind to environmental risks has been as exhaustively and continuously studied as that resulting from ionizing radiations. Apart from lethal effects, he describes non lethal cell lesions which are induced in tissues: mutations and modifications of gene expressions, either directly under the effect of radiation, or by water hydrolysis, or indirectly through a biochemical response to these initial events. Then, the author evokes the controversy about Chernobyl: according to scientists, there is no relationship between the health degradation (human morbidity and mortality) and fallouts whereas activist groups state that there is. The author then evokes that the WHO and the IAEA were accused to lie about the issue of victims and health consequences. He outlines that UNSCEAR reports are a reference for radio-biologists, and that the 2011 report confirmed the conclusions of the 2006 report. He comments some published data, notably those on the acute irradiation syndrome (ARS), on carcinogenic effects (essentially thyroid cancers for children, as there is no clear nor admitted relationship for other forms of cancer), on other pathologies. Finally, the author briefly discusses the issue of crisis management, the information about Fukushima, and the issue of Chernobyl fallouts in France

  9. Biological and medical consequences of nuclear accidents

    The study of the medical and biological consequences of the nuclear accidents is a vast program. The Chernobyl accident has caused some thirty deceases: Some of them were rapid and the others occurred after a certain time. The particularity of these deaths was that the irradiation has been associated to burns and traumatisms. The lesson learnt from the Chernobyl accident is to treat the burn and the traumatism before treating the irradiation. Contrary to what the research workers believe, the first wave of deaths has passed between 15 and 35 days and it has not been followed by any others. But the therapeutic lesson drawn from the accident confirm the research workers results; for example: the radioactive doses band that determines where the therapy could be efficacious or not. the medical cares dispensed to the irradiated people in the hospital of Moscow has confirmed that the biochemical equilibrium of proteinic elements of blood has to be maintained, and the transfusion of the purified elements are very important to restore a patient to health, and the sterilization of the medium (room, food, bedding,etc...) of the patient is indispensable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an international cooperation for providing enough sterilized rooms and specialists in the irradiation treatment. The genetic consequences and cancers from the Chernobyl accident have been discussed. It is impossible to detect these consequences because of their negligible percentages. (author)

  10. Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

    The reactor accident at unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine has deeply affected the living conditions of millions of people. Especially the health consequences have been of public concern up to the present and also been the subject of sometimes absurd claims. The current knowledge on the radiological consequences of the accident is reviewed. Though an increased hazard for some risk groups with high radiation exposure, e.g., liquidators, still cannot be totally excluded for the future, the majority of the population shows no statistically significant indication of radiation-induced illnesses. The contribution of the Research Center Juelich to the assessment of the post-accidental situation and psychological relief of the population is reported. The population groups still requiring special attention include, in particular, children growing up in highly contaminated regions and the liquidators of the years 1986 and 1987 deployed immediately after the accident. (author)

  11. Consequences in Guatemala of the Chernobyl accident

    Because of the long distance between Guatemala and Chernobyl, the country did not undergo direct consequences of radioactive contamination in the short term. However, the accident repercussions were evident in the medium and long-term, mainly in two sectors, the economic-political and the environmental sectors

  12. Consequences in Sweden of the Chernobyl accident

    It summarizes the consequences in Sweden of the Chernobyl accident, describes the emergency response, the basis for decisions and countermeasures, the measurement strategies, the activity levels and doses and countermeasures and action levels used. Past and remaining problems are discussed and the major investigations and improvements are given. (author)

  13. Scientometric analysis of the means of scientific communication of the problem of medical consequences of Chernobyl Nuclear accident

    In this paper evaluation of the structure and trends in the development of the Ukrainian scientific communication tools on the medical consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident using bibliometric methods has been given. The main developers of methodical documents are allocated, the dynamics of the distribution of methodical references, information letters and innovations is estimated. The importance of scientific communications tools in dissemination and use of new medical knowledge is demonstrated

  14. Real and mythical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    This presentation describes the public Unacceptance of Nuclear Power as a consequence of Chernobyl Accident, an accident which was a severest event in the history of the nuclear industry. It was a shock for everybody, who has been involved in nuclear power programs. But nobody could expect that it was also the end romantic page in the nuclear story. The scale of the detriment was a great, and it could be compared with other big technological man-made catastrophes. But immediately after an accident mass media and news agencies started to transmit an information with a great exaggerations of the consequences of the event. In a report on the Seminar The lessons of the Chernobyl - 1' in 1996 examples of such incorrect information, were cited. Particularly, in the mass media it was declared that consequences of the accident could be compared with a results of the second world war, the number of victims were more than hundred thousand people, more than million of children have the serious health detriments. Such and other cases of the misconstruction have been called as myths. The real consequences of Chernobyl disaster have been summed on the International Conference 'One decade after Chernobyl' - 2, in April 1996. A very important result of the Chernobyl accident was a dissemination of stable unacceptance of the everything connected with 'the atom'. A mystic horror from invisible mortal radiation has been inspired in the masses. And from such public attitude the Nuclear Power Programs in many countries have changed dramatically. A new more pragmatic and more careful atomic era started with a slogan: 'Kernkraftwerk ? Nein, danke'. No doubt, a Chernobyl accident was a serious technical catastrophe in atomic industry. The scale of detriment is connected with a number of involved peoples, not with a number of real victims. In comparison with Bhopal case, earthquakes, crashes of the airplanes, floods, traffic accidents and other risky events of our life - the Chernobyl is

  15. Aerosol transport analysis of LWR high-consequence accidents using the HAA-4A code

    Use of the HAA-4A code to calculate removal of aerosol in containment due to inherent behavior mechanisms is described. Results for a PWR TMLB' scenario showed a source reduction of about a factor of 50 in CsI available for release to the environment through a catastrophic containment failure. Respirable CsI entering containment from the primary coolant system and melt-through blowdown was a factor of 25 less than the source. The principal removal mechanisms were particle growth due to Brownian and differential settling agglomeration and subsequent fallout. Sensitivities to important and uncertain parameters are discussed. Increased removal due to turbulent agglomeration and a larger expected source particle size are indicated. A seven control volume analysis took less than 1 minute of CPU time on an IBM 3033

  16. Health consequences [of the Chernobyl accident

    The World Health Organisation Conference on the Health Consequences of the Chernobyl and Other Radiological Accidents, held in Geneva last November, is reported. The lack of representation from the civil nuclear industry led often to one-sided debates instigated by the anti-nuclear lobbies present. Thyroid cancer in children as a result of the Chernobyl accident received particular attention. In Belarus, 400 cases have been noted, 220 in Ukraine and 60 in the Russian Federation. All have been treated with a high degree of success. The incidence of this cancer would be expected to follow the fallout path as the main exposure route was ingestion of contaminated foods and milk products. It was noted that the only way to confirm causality was if those children born since the accident failed to show the same increased incidence. Explanations were offered for the particular susceptibility of children to thyroid cancer following exposure to radiation. Another significant cause of concern was the health consequences to clean-up workers in radiological accidents. The main factor is psychological problems from the stress of knowing that they have received high radiation doses. A dramatic increase in psychological disorders has occurred in the Ukraine over the past ten years and this is attributed to stress generated by the Chernobyl accident, compounded by the inadequacy of the public advice offered at the time and the socio-economic uncertainties accompanying the breakup of the former USSR. (UK)

  17. First international workshop on severe accidents and their consequences. [Chernobyl Accident

    1989-07-01

    An international workshop on past severe nuclear accidents and their consequences was held in Dagomys region of Sochi, USSR on October 30--November 3, 1989. The plan of this meeting was approved by the USSR Academy of Sciences and by the USSR State Committee of the Utilization of Atomic Energy. The meeting was held under the umbrella of the ANS-SNS agreement of cooperation. Topics covered include analysis of the Chernobyl accident, safety measures for RBMK type reactors and consequences of the Chernobyl accident including analysis of the ecological, genetic and psycho-social factors. Separate reports are processed separately for the data bases. (CBS)

  18. The Chernobyl accident consequences; Consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl

    NONE

    2001-04-01

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  19. Consequences and problems of the Chernobyl accident

    The data on epidemic situation in connection with the Chernobyl accident, based on the personal medical and dosimetric information on all the persons, subjected to radiation effect, and included in the Russian state medicodosimetric register, are presented. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident become the cause for origination of serious radiation injures by 134 persons (with lethal outcome by 37 patients) and also remote radiation stochastic effects by children (thyroid gland cancer) and by liquidators (thyroid gland leucosis and cancer). The permanent stress and other unfavorable factors conditioned aggravation of chronical and increase in somatic diseases and psychoneurotic disorders

  20. Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

    General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

  1. Consequence of potential accidents in heavy water plants

    Heavy water plants realize the primary isotopic concentrations of water using H2O-H2S chemical exchange and they are chemical plants. As these plants are handling and spreading large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive as) maintained in the process at relative high temperatures and pressures, it is required an assessing of risks associated with the potential accidents. The H2S released in atmosphere as a result of an accident will have negative consequences to property, population and environment. This paper presents a model of consequences quantitative assessment and its outcome for the most dangerous accident in heavy water plants. Several states of the art risk based methods were modified and linked together to form a proper model for this analyse. Five basic steps to identify the risks involved in operating the plants are followed: hazard identification, accident sequence development, H2S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information of analysis results are provided. The accident proportions, the atmospheric conditions and the population density in the respective area were accounted for consequences calculus. The specific results of the consequences analysis allow to develop the plant's operating safety requirements so that the risk remain at an acceptable level. (authors)

  2. Environmental consequences of releases from nuclear accidents

    The primary purpose of this report is to present the results of a four-year Nordic cooperation program in the area of consequence assessment of nuclear accidents with large releases to the environment. This program was completed in 1989. Related information from other research programs has also been described, so that many chapters of the report reflect the current status in the respective areas, in addition to containing the results of the Nordic program. (author) 179 refs

  3. The Fukushima accident: radiological consequences and first lessons. Proceedings

    This document brings together the available presentations given at the conference organised by the French society of radiation protection about the Fukushima accident, its radiological consequences and the first lessons learnt. Sixteen presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Accident progress and first actions (Thierry Charles, IRSN); 2 - Conditions and health monitoring of the Japanese intervention teams (Bernard Le Guen, EDF); 3 - The Intra Group action after the Fukushima accident (Michel Chevallier, Groupe Intra; Frederic Mariotte, CEA); 4 - Processing of effluents (Georges Pagis, Areva); 5 - Fukushima accident: impact on the terrestrial environment in Japan (Didier Champion, IRSN); 6 - Consequences of the Fukushima accident on the marine environment (Dominique Boust, IRSN); 7 - Territories decontamination perspectives (Pierre Chagvardieff, CEA); 8 - Actions undertaken by Japanese authorities (Florence Gallay, ASN); 9 - Japanese population monitoring and health stakes (Philippe Pirard, InVS); 10 - Citizen oversight actions implemented in Japan (David Boilley, ACRO); 11 - Implementation of ICRP's (International Commission on Radiological Protection) recommendations by Japanese authorities: first analysis (Jacques Lochard, CIPR); 12 - Control of Japan imported food stuff (David Brouque, DGAL); 13 - Questions asked by populations in France and in Germany (Florence-Nathalie Sentuc, GRS; Pascale Monti, IRSN); 14 - Labour law applicable to French workers working abroad (Thierry Lahaye, DGT); 15 - Protection of French workers working in Japan, Areva's experience (Patrick Devin, Areva); 16 - Fukushima accident experience feedback and post-accident nuclear doctrine (Jean-Luc Godet, ASN)

  4. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  5. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs

  6. Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

    Fifty years of peaceful utilization of nuclear power were interrupted by the reactor accident in unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in Ukraine in 1986, a disruptive event whose consequences profoundly affected the way of life of millions of people, and which has moved the public to this day. Releases of radioactive materials contaminated large areas of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Early damage in the form of radiation syndrome was suffered by a group of rescue workers and members of the reactor operating crew, in some cases with fatal consequences, while the population does not, until now, show a statistically significant increase in the rate of late damage due to ionizing radiation expect for thyroid diseases in children. In particular, no increases in the rates of solid tumors, leukaemia, genetic defects, and congenital defects were detected. For some risk groups exposed to high radiation doses (such as liquidators) the hazard may still be greater, but the large majority of the population need not live in fear of serious impacts on health. Nevertheless, the accident shows major negative social and psychological consequences reinforced by the breakdown of the Soviet Union. This may be one reason for the observed higher incidence of other diseases whose association with the effects of radiation as a cause has not so far been proven. The measurement campaign conducted by the federal government in 1991-1993 addressed these very concerns of the public in an effort to provide unbiased information about exposures detected, on the one hand, in order to alleviate the fears of the public and reduce stress and, on the other hand, to contribute to the scientific evaluation of the radiological situation in the regions most highly exposed. The groups of the population requiring special attention in the future include especially children growing up in highly contaminated regions, and the liquidators of 1986 and 1987 employed in the period immediately

  7. Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

  8. The Chernobyl reactor accident - provisional results and consequences

    Those involved at present in the analysis and estimation of consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident are in a dilemma: While a worried and uncertain Western German public is calling for information the Soviet Union was practicing a rigorously restrictive information policy. Both the severity of the reactor accident and the complexity of events do urgently require the acquisition and evaluation of facts which will provide the basis for an objective factual discussion of issues and possible measures. The paper abstracted is trying to assess the alleged causes of the accident and estimate possible consequences. However, all attempts of that kind are based but on incomplete and dubious information as of May 21st, 1986. (orig.)

  9. Cosyma a new programme package for accident consequence assessment

    This report gives details of a new programme package for accident consequence assessment, prepared under the CEC's Maria programme (Methods for assessing the radiological impact of accidents) initiated in 1982 to review and build on the nuclear accident consequence assessment methods in use within the European Community

  10. Environmental consequences of releases from nuclear accidents

    The report presents the results of a four-year Nordic cooperation project (AKTU-200). The results have impact upon many facets of accident consequence assessment, ranging from new computational tools to recommendations concerning food preparation methods to be utilized in a fallout situation. Some of the subprojects have approached areas where little or no research has been performed previously, like the project on winter conditions, the project on the physico/chemical form of radionuclides in the Chernobyl fallout, and the project on resuspension. The conclusion from the first of these projects is that the impact of an accident or fallout situation occuring during winter may be considerable smaller than in a similar situation during summer conditions. The most important conclusion from the second of these projects is that bioavailability of radiocesium in soil is significantly lower than that of radiocesium in plant material taken up via the roots. In the third project is was found that the resuspension factor is several orders of magnitude lower than the values traditionally cited, and that resuspension is a local phenomenon in a majority of weather conditions. The development of large-scale testing of mitigating actions to prevent uptake of radiocesium in animals in a fallout situation is also one of the projects where new ground has been sucessfully broken. 189 refs., 89 figs., 55 tabs

  11. A comparison of the consequences of the design basis accident of the Greek Research Reactor with those of a serious realistic accident

    An analysis of the radiological consequences of the design basis and the coolant flow blockage accidents of the Greek Research Reactor is presented. The results indicate that the consequences of the coolant flow blockage accident are practically trivial being 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than the corresponding consequences of the design basis accident. (author)

  12. Safety analysis of WWER-440 nuclear power plants: Potential consequences of a large primary to secondary system leakage accident

    . The general scope and results of the programme are reviewed at relevant Technical Cooperation and advisory group meetings. Guidance relevant to water moderated, water cooled WWER-type reactors and graphite moderated, boiling water RBMK type reactors has been developed within the IAEA's Extrabudgetary Programme on the Safety of WWER-and RBMK nuclear power plants. To a certain extent, accident analysis is also covered in several publications of the IAEA Safety Standards series, for example in the Safety Requirements on Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design (NS-R-1) and in the Safety Guide on Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants (NS-G-1.2). Consistent with these publications, the IAEA also developed a Safety Report on Accident Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants (Safety Reports Series No. 23). A Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Assessment of the Interfaces between Neutronic, Thermohydraulic, Structural and Radiological Aspects in Accident Analysis was implemented from 2003 to 2005 to comprehensively evaluate a complex accident scenario within the framework of the IAEA subprogramme on Development of Safety Assessment Methods and Tools. Twelve organizations from eight Member States participated in the CRP. This report provides a summary of the CRP. Results, recommendations and conclusions resulting from the IAEA programme are intended only to assist national decision makers who have the sole responsibility for the regulation and safe operation of their nuclear power plants. Moreover, they do not replace a comprehensive safety assessment which needs to be performed in the framework of the national licensing process

  13. Metabolic syndrome X as a clinical outcome of hormonal changes on the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences (the problem analysis)

    An analysis of hormonal changes in the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences, which promote the metabolic syndrome X development, was carried out on the base of clinical and experimental data. The system insulin-glucose, the mechanisms of insulinresistance and gyperinslinemia forming, the pathogenetical role of hyperinsulinemia interaction with others hormomes, some aspects of hormone - receptor interaction, an interconnection of hyperinsulinemia and vascular pathology, peculiarities of radiobiological stress as a non-classic adaptive reaction, which frequently resulting with a pathology, were discussed in the article

  14. Assessment of off-site consequences of nuclear accidents (MARIA)

    A brief report is given of a workshop held in Luxembourg in 1985 on methods for assessing the off-site radiological consequences of nuclear accidents (MARIA). The sessions included topics such as atmospheric dispersion; foodchain transfer; urban contamination; demographic and land use data; dosimetry, health effects, economic and countermeasures models; uncertainty analysis; and application of probabilistic risk assessment results as input to decision aids. (U.K.)

  15. Chernobylsk accident (Causes and Consequences)-Part 1

    Facts, project data, hypothesis, calculations, evaluations, monitoring, standard requirements and several considerations, related to causes, effects and consequences of Chernobylsk-4 accident. (M.C.K.)

  16. Management of radioactive waste during the initial period of eliminating the consequences of the Chornobyl accident. Review and analysis

    This review discusses basic sources of radioactive waste (RAW) formation during the Chornobyl accident, processes of RAW formation, and describes the relevant experience of RAW collection and disposal. Not all sources and materials were available for the research, but the author endeavored to provide the most comprehensive presentation of all the aspects of RAW management during elimination of the Chornobyl accident

  17. Tank Bump Accident Potential and Consequences During Waste Retrieval

    BRATZEL, D.R.

    2000-09-27

    This report provides an evaluation of Hanford tank bump accident potential and consequences during waste retrieval operations. The purpose of this report is to consider the best available new information to support recommendations for safety controls. A new tank bump accident analysis for safe storage (Epstein et al. 2000) is extended for this purpose. A tank bump is a postulated event in which gases, consisting mostly of water vapor, are suddenly emitted from the waste and cause tank headspace pressurization. Tank bump scenarios, physical models, and frequency and consequence methods are fully described in Epstein et al. (2000). The analysis scope is waste retrieval from double-shell tanks (DSTs) including operation of equipment such as mixer pumps and air lift circulators. The analysis considers physical mechanisms for tank bump to formulate criteria for bump potential during retrieval, application of the criteria to the DSTs, evaluation of bump frequency, and consequence analysis of a bump. The result of the consequence analysis is the mass of waste released from tanks; radiological dose is calculated using standard methods (Cowley et al. 2000).

  18. Consequences and effectiveness of relocation after nuclear accidents

    Extensive parameter studies have been performed with the program package COSYMA for probabilistic accident consequence assessments to quantify by means of PRA methods the interdependence of those quantities, which influence the extent, the duration, the efficiency and the monetary costs of relocation. As most important quantities, the amount of radionuclides released, the dose intervention levels for relocation, the (avoided) radiation doses in the population and the associated costs have been identified. Decontamination measures have also been included in the investigations, since they reduce the duration of relocation. The expression of all relevant accident consequences in monetary units allowed to investigate the applicability of cost/benefit analysis for deriving the most favourable intervention levels. It could be shown that weighting with different factors of collective doses calculated from different individual dose bands, and thus incorporating subjective judgements, significantly extends and improves the method. (orig./HP)

  19. Consequences of the Fukushima accident: A preliminary assessment and discussion

    Tsunami due to the earthquake in East Japan Sea eventually leaded to a severe nuclear accident in Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. This event immediately became the focus of the whole world. The work to roughly evaluate and predict the consequence of this nuclear accident is summarized in this paper and the work actually provides valuable information in predicting the scale and severity of the accident comparing to the published information on the accident thereafter. (authors)

  20. Uncertainties in offsite consequence analysis

    Young, M.L.; Harper, F.T.; Lui, C.H.

    1996-03-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequences from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission began co-sponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process. This paper focuses on the methods used in and results of this on-going joint effort.

  1. Medical consequences of a nuclear plant accident

    The report gives background information concerning radiation and the biological medical effects and damages caused by radiation. The report also discusses nuclear power plant accidents and efforts from the medical service in the case of a nuclear power plant accident. (L.F.)

  2. Fast detections of the accident. Radiological consequences

    This paper shows how the contamination due to the accident of Chernobylsk has been discovered in Sweden. The Swedish national Institute of radio-protection describes in detail the measurements done, and the decisions of radioprotection which have been taken

  3. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management. 59 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  4. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems

  5. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Jow, Hong-Nian (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems.

  6. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Jow, H.N.; Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management. 59 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  7. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projections, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management

  8. Radiological consequences of the Three Mile Island accident

    The radiological consequences of the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear accident are discussed in detail. The nature, quantity and timing of the radioactive materials released to the atmosphere are established; mainly radioactive noble gases were emitted. A description is given of the radiological monitoring that occurred and the measured levels both inside and outside the plant are given as a function of time from the accident. In particular, the radioiodine release and its subsequent detection in milk analysis is described. The methods of establishing the population dosage are discussed; it is concluded that the collective dose equivalent is in the range 1600-3300 person rems. This implies a projected cancer (fatal and non-fatal) incidence of less than 1.5 in the offsite population within the 50 miles of the TMI site; the expected occurrence in this population is 541,000 cancers. The exposure of workers to radiation levels within the plant is also reported. (U.K.)

  9. Source term and radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    This report presents the results of a study of the source term and radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident. The results two parts. The first part was performed during the first 2 months following the accident and dealt with the evaluation of the source term and an estimate of individual doses in the European countries outside the Soviet Union. The second part was performed after August 25-29, 1986 when the Soviets presented in a IAEA Conference in Vienna detailed information about the accident, including source term and radiological consequences in the Soviet Union. The second part of the study reconfirms the source term evaluated in the first part and in addition deals with the radiological consequences in the Soviet Union. Source term and individual doses are calculated from measured post-accident data, reported by the Soviet Union and European countries, microcomputer program PEAR (Public Exposure from Accident Releases). 22 refs

  10. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Lithuania

    After the Chernobyl accident of 26 April, 1986, population dose assessment favours the view that the radiation risk of population effected by the early fallout would be different from that in regions contaminated later. Taking into account the short half-time of the most important radioactive iodine isotopes, thyroid disorders would be expected mainly to follow the early fallout distribution. At the time of accident at Unite 4 of the Chernobyl NPP, surface winds were from the Southeast. The initial explosions and heat carried volatile radioactive materials to the 1,5 km height, from where they were transported over the Western part of Belarus, Southern and Western part of Lithuania toward Scandinavian countries. Thus the volatile radioiodine and some other radionuclides were detected in Lithuania on the very first days after the accident. The main task of the work - to conduct short Half-time radioiodine and long half-time radiocesium dose assessment of Lithuanian inhabitants a result of the early Chernobyl accident fallout

  11. Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

    This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board. The report contains a calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings caused by a theoretical core meltdown accident at Ringhals reactor No 3/4. The accident sequence chosen for the calcualtions was a release caused by total power failure. The calculations were made by means of the PLUCON4 code. A decontamination factor of 500 is used to account for the scrubber effect. Meteorological data for two years from the Ringhals meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather, Pasquill D, was chosen with a wind speed of 10 m/s, and as extreme weather, Pasquill E, with a wind speed of 2 m/s. 19 refs. (author)

  12. Appearing consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    Full text: Chernobyl is the greatest world's tragedy after Chirosima. Global results of this tragedy is already being seen. They are the people who have received radiation dose. the first type of cancer 5 years after Chernobyl accident was the thyroid gland cancer, the reason of it, large quantities of radioactive iodine in the air, food products, milk of cattle and finally their collection in the thyroid gland cancer entering the human body. Period all of a sudden after 10 years completed the next latent type of cancer was leykoz. Giving rise to this type of cancer more sensitive to radiation of the body - a violation of the spinal brain function. After 20 years passing from the accident in the first generation one ill child must be born cause of undergoing to radiation father or mother from each three days in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine

  13. Medical demographic consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    A demographic study was made of the population evacuated from the 30-km zone around the nuclear power plant and of the population living in areas over which the radioactive cloud passed and over which the plume was formed. For the farmers evacuated from 11,655 homes in the Chernobyl region, 7,000 new houses, built in the Kiev region, had already been provided within 5 months of the accident, and by the summer of 1987 another 5,000 houses were available. A study of the resettlement of the population carried out a year after the accident showed that more than 60% of those evacuated continued to live in the regions from which the evacuation had taken place; about 5% were resettled in other republics, and 20% within their own republic. (author). 7 figs, 2 tabs

  14. Information on economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    This ''Information on economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl accident'' was presented to the July 1990 session of the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations by the delegations of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It presents the radiation situation, the medical aspects of the accident, the evacuation of the inhabitants from areas affected by radioactive contamination and their social welfare, the agro-industrial production and forestry in these areas, the decontamination operations, the scientific back-up for the work dealing with the consequences of the accident and the expenditure and losses resulting from the Chernobyl disaster

  15. Prevention of the causes and consequences of a criticality accident - measures adopted in France

    The question of safety in regard to criticality accident risks has two aspects: prevention of the cause and limitation of the consequences. These two aspects are closely connected. The effort devoted to prevention of the causes depends on the seriousness of the possible human psychologic and economic consequences of the accident. The criticality accidents which have occurred in the nuclear industry, though few in number, do reveal the imperfect nature of the techniques adopted to prevent the causes, and also constitute the only available realistic basis for evaluating the consequences and developing measures to limit them. The authors give a analysis of the known causes and consequences of past criticality accidents and on this basis make a number of comments concerning: the validity of traditional safety criteria, the probability of accidents for different types of operations, characteristic accidents which can serve as models, and the extent of possible radiological consequences. The measures adopted in France to limit the consequences of a possible criticality accident under the headings: location, design and lay-out of the installations, accident detection, and dosimetry for the exposed personnel, are briefly described after a short account of the criteria used in deciding on them. (author)

  16. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Atmospheric Dispersion and Deposition Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    The uncertainty analysis is described of the atmospheric dispersion and deposition module of COSYMA, describing both the methods of obtaining distributions on the input parameters and the results of the analysis. The uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values were obtained using formal techniques of expert judgement elicitation. The aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes major contributions to the overall uncertainty, and which should be included in the final analysis of the whole COSYMA system. (author)

  17. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Late Health Effects Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    The uncertainty analysis is described of the late health effects module of COSYMA, describing both the methods of obtaining distributions on the input parameters and the results of the analysis. The uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values were obtained using formal expert judgement elicitation techniques. The aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes major contributions to the overall uncertainty, and which should be included in the final analysis of the whole COSYMA package. (author)

  18. Thyroid consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

    Pacini, F; Vorontsova, T; Molinaro, E; Shavrova, E; Agate, L; Kuchinskaya, E; Elisei, R; Demidchik, E P; Pinchera, A

    1999-12-01

    It is well recognized that the use of external irradiation of the head and neck to treat patients with various non-thyroid disorders increases their risk of developing papillary thyroid carcinoma years after radiation exposure. An increased risk of thyroid cancer has also been reported in survivors of the atomic bombs in Japan, as well as in Marshall Island residents exposed to radiation during the testing of hydrogen bombs. More recently, exposure to radioactive fallout as a result of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident has clearly caused an enormous increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid carcinoma in Belarus, Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, in the Russian Federation, starting in 1990. When clinical and epidemiological features of thyroid carcinomas diagnosed in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident are compared with those of naturally occurring thyroid carcinomas in patients of the same age group in Italy and France, it becomes apparent that the post-Chernobyl thyroid carcinomas were much less influenced by gender, virtually always papillary (solid and follicular variants), more aggressive at presentation and more frequently associated with thyroid autoimmunity. Gene mutations involving the RET proto-oncogene, and less frequently TRK, have been shown to be causative events specific for papillary cancer. RET activation was found in nearly 70% of the patients who developed papillary thyroid carcinomas following the Chernobyl accident. In addition to thyroid cancer, radiation-induced thyroid diseases include benign thyroid nodules, hypothyroidism and autoimmune thyroiditis, with or without thyroid insufficiency, as observed in populations after environmental exposure to radioisotopes of iodine and in the survivors of atomic bomb explosions. On this basis, the authors evaluated thyroid autoimmune phenomena in normal children exposed to radiation after the Chernobyl accident. The results demonstrated an increased prevalence of circulating thyroid

  19. The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Greece - Report No. 2

    In this report a realistic estimate of the radioactive fallout on Greece from the Chernobyl nuclear accident is described. The measurements performed on environmental samples and samples of the food chain, as well as some realistic estimations for the population doses and the expected consequences of the accident are presented. The analysis has shown that the radiological impact of the accident in Greece can be considered minor. (J.K.)

  20. Radiological attacks and accidents. Medical consequences

    Probability of the occurrence of radiological attacks appears to be elevated after the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11 in 2001. There are a lot of scenarios of radiological attack: simple radiological device, radiological disperse device (RDD or dirty bomb), attacks against nuclear reactor, improvised nuclear device, and nuclear weapons. Of these, RDD attack is the most probable scenario, because it can be easily made and can generate enormous psychological and economic damages. Radiological incidents are occurring to and fro in the world, including several cases of theft to nuclear facilities and unsuccessful terrorist attacks against them. Recently, a former Russian spy has allegedly been killed using polonium-210. In addition, serious radiological accidents have occurred in Chernobyl, Goiania, and Tokai-mura. Planning, preparation, education, and training exercise appear to be essential factors to cope with radiological attacks and accidents effectively without feeling much anxiety. Triage and psychological first aid are prerequisite to manage and provide effective medial care for mass casualties without inducing panic. (author)

  1. The analysis outlining the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the firefighters employed by the State Fire Service in Poland in 2008–2013

    Agata Pawlak

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Due to the specifics of their work and to being exposed to a wide range of hazards, firefighters working for the State Fire Service (SFS face the risk of work-related accidents more often than members of other occupational groups. The aim of this paper is to analyze the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the SFS officers in Poland between the years 2008–2013. Material and Methods: The material analyzed is based on aggregate data collected by the Headquarters of the State Fire Service. Figures regarding accidents in the period between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2013 show that 8518 workrelated accidents occurred in that period and 8635 people were injured. Results: The data shows that neither the number of accidents nor their frequency indicator underwent any significant fluctuations over the 6 years under consideration. The group that is most exposed to accidents on duty in the profession includes active firefighters serving in rescue and fire extinguishment divisions. According to the data, the greatest number of trauma incidents in the SFS between the years 2008–2013 occurred during sporting activities. The predominant cause of these was inappropriate behavior or the lack of proper care. The most frequent injuries sustained during the accidents were broken or fractured bones and sprained joints. Conclusions: Accidents on duty occur significantly more often when firefighters are at their stations, during sporting classes, exercises or maneuvers, than in the course of actual rescue operations. The firefighters of the State Fire Services are insufficiently prepared for their sporting activities. Med Pr 2016;67(1:1–9

  2. Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

    This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board. The report contains a calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings caused by a theoretical core meltdown accident at Forsmark reactor No 3. The assumption used for the calculations were a 0.06% release of iodine and cesium corresponding to a 0.1% release through the FILTRA plant at Barsebaeck. The calculations were made by means of the PLUCON4 code. Meteorological data for two years from the Forsmark meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather pasquill D was chosen with wind speed 5 m/s, and as extreme weather, Pasquill F with wind speed 2 m/s. 23 tabs., 36 ills., 21 refs. (author)

  3. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  4. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Laboratory; Chichester, Heather [Idaho National Laboratory; Johns, Jesse [Texas A& M University; Teague, Melissa [Idaho National Laboratory; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant

  5. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Styria

    We present results which document the contamination of Styria (Southern part of Austria) immediately after and in the years following the Chernobyl accident. The radioactivity and distribution of radionuclides in aerosols, rain water, soil, vegetation, animals and various samples of food are described in great detail. One of the key results is that the highest levels of contamination were found in two districts (Liezen, Deutschlandsberg), and the deposition rates for Cs-137 were determined to be in the range from 3 to about 80 kBq/m2. Of particular interest are studies concerning the migration and distribution of radionuclides in soil, the uptake of radiocesium by the aquatic vegetation and the existence of radionuclides in the natural ecosystem up to this day. Effective dose equivalents due to incorporated radiocesium was estimated to be 252.2 μSv for the adult population of Graz (capital of Styria) over the four years follwing the fallout. (authors) 17 papers are presented and are of INIS scope

  6. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 μSv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  7. Accident analysis and DOE criteria

    In analyzing the radiological consequences of major accidents at DOE facilities one finds that many facilities fall so far below the limits of DOE Order 6430 that compliance is easily demonstrated by simple analysis. For those cases where the amount of radioactive material and the dispersive energy available are enough for accident consequences to approach the limits, the models and assumptions used become critical. In some cases the models themselves are the difference between meeting the criteria or not meeting them. Further, in one case, we found that not only did the selection of models determine compliance but the selection of applicable criteria from different chapters of Order 6430 also made the difference. DOE has recognized the problem of different criteria in different chapters applying to one facility, and has proceeded to make changes for the sake of consistency. We have proposed to outline the specific steps needed in an accident analysis and suggest appropriate models, parameters, and assumptions. As a result we feed DOE siting and design criteria will be more fairly and consistently applied

  8. Remote medical consequences of Chernobyl NPP accident in Armenia

    In result of global radio-ecological disaster at the Chernobyl NPP in Armenia there has appeared a great 'risk group' of persons, who had participated in liquidation of the accident consequences. The results of medical observation of this cohort carried out in dynamics in Scientific Center of Radiation Medicine and Burns during 25 years are brought in the work

  9. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France

    This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m-2), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at present the dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 μSv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded before

  10. Consequences of Chernobyl accident in Europe

    ,000 'liquidators' ranged between 170 mSv in 1986 and 15 mSv in 1989. Among the >100,000 evacuees the average whole body dose prior to evacuation was 15 mSv. The average lifetime Chernobyl whole body doses in European countries outside the former Soviet Union range from 0.006 mSv in Portugal to 2.4 mSv in Bulgaria. In the Northern Hemisphere the average Chernobyl lifetime dose is 0.14 mSv, i.e. about 0.08% of the natural dose. The average global whole body dose of natural radiation during 70 years is about 170 mSv, and 700 mSv in typically high background areas. Epidemiological studies from Hiroshima and Nagasaki suggest that no increase in cancer mortality should be expected at a single whole body dose (in addition to natural background radiation) of <200 mSv, delivered during a fraction of a second. Doses of about 200 mSv accumulated over tens of years of exposure would be even less effective. Ten years after the Chernobyl catastrophe the total radiation death toll is 31 - 38 persons, among them 3 persons were the members of the public. The total expected number of thyroid cancer deaths is about 500. In Poland, a country closest to Chernobyl outside the former Soviet Union, during two days, starting on the second day after arrival of radioactive cloud, 18.5 million persons were administered a prophylactic dose of stable iodine in form of 'Lugol solution', to block the uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid. This caused a thyroid dose reduction by a factor of up to 5, without any intra-thyroid side effects. Economic loses related to necessary and unnecessary remedial measures are estimated to reach in Belarus between 1986 and 2015 US$ 191.7 billion, of which US$ 86.32 billion are costs of financial and other compensation ('privileges') for peoples living at contaminated regions. It is estimated that in Ukraine in regions where 'Chernobyl radiation dose' is less than 1 mSv/year about 1.73 million persons receives the 'privileges'. Psychosomatic consequences of radiophobia induced by

  11. The Fukushima accident and its consequences. Facts, explanations and comments

    This document proposes an overview of the present situation in the different reactors of the Fukushima power station and discusses its control by the operator. It also describes what went on, the causes of the accident, and what occurred on the accident day (earthquake, tsunami, flooding). It discusses whether some mistakes regarding the design and the protection of reactors could explain the accident. It presents the various measures which have been immediately implemented to protect the populations and to confine the accident. It proposes an assessment of damages for the ground and marine environment in terms of contamination. It addresses the consequences of the released radioactivity on population health and on personnel intervening within the site. It discusses the restoration perspectives for contaminated areas and the possible return of evacuated population. Then, it describes the different phases for the station dismantling. It evokes the issue of fallouts beyond Japan and in Europe, outlines some lessons learned from the accident and new safety measures to be implemented in France. It discusses how nuclear risk management is organised in France and its efficiency. It addresses the consequences for the development of nuclear energy in the world

  12. Validation and verification of accident consequence assessment models

    Homma, T.; Togawa, O. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokyo (Japan); Takahashi, T. [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Arkhipov, A.N. [Chernobyl Science and Technology Centre for International Research (Ukraine)

    2001-03-01

    An accident consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, primarily designed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) for use in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear reactors in Japan, was applied to use for siting, emergency planning, and development of design criteria, and in the comparative risk studies of different energy systems. After verifying the code system through the international code comparison organized by CEC and OECD/NEA, the validation and improvements of the individual models and the verification of the whole OSCAAR code system were made. The cooperative research between Chernobyl Science and Technology Center for International Research (CHESCIR) and JAERI provided a valuable opportunity to test the performance of the accident consequence assessment models by comparing the model predictions with data obtained in the Chernobyl accidents. The predictive capabilities of OSCAAR were demonstrated using the accident source term and meteorological data for estimating the early exposure to the public occurred during and shortly after plume passage. The calculations indicated that ground-shine dose and inhalation dose, particularly from large nonvolatile particulates were the main contributors in the early stage of the accident. (S. Ohno)

  13. Reducing the consequences of reactor accidents with a green belt

    Considerable attention is being paid to reducing the consequences of low-probability accidents in nuclear power plants. A scheme based on the pollution absorption properties of trees is proposed to reduce early and continued mortalities among the general public due to an accident in a nuclear power plant. The consequences of a hypothetical case in which a large, cold, ground-level release of radionuclides into the atmosphere takes place have been analyzed in the absence and in the presence of a green belt (rows of trees). The results show that in the presence of a suitably designed green belt around a nuclear power plant, the consequences in terms of early and continued mortality as well as an interdiction area, involving relocation of population and supply of food stuff from an uncontaminated region, can be reduced by orders of magnitude. This could also help in substantially reducing the magnitude of emergency preparedness in the public domain

  14. Accident analysis in nuclear power plants

    The way the philosophy of Safety in Depth can be verified through the analysis of simulated accidents is shown. This can be achieved by verifying that the integrity of the protection barriers against the release of radioactivity to the environment is preserved even during accident conditions. The simulation of LOCA is focalized as an example, including a study about the associated environmental radiological consequences. (Author)

  15. OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCE CALCULATION FOR THE BOUNDING MIXING OF INCOMPATIBLE MATERIALS ACCIDENT

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding mixing of incompatible materials accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in Appendix A of DOE-STD-3009. The bounding accident is an inadvertent addition of acid to a waste tank. The calculated offsite dose does not challenge the Evaluation Guideline. Revision 4 updates the analysis to consider bulk chemical additions to single shell tanks (SSTs)

  16. Consequences and experiences - ten years after the Chernobyl accident

    On 26 April 1986. the most serious accident in the history of the nuclear industry occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the former Soviet Union, near the present borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.Material released into the atmosphere dispersed and eventually deposited back on the surface of the earth,were it was measurable over the whole northern hemisphere. Millions of people and all segments of life and economy have been affected by the accident. Radioactive contamination has reached several tens of MBq/m2 in the area of 30 km diameter around the reactor in 1986., and plants and animals have been exposed to short lived radionuclides up to external doses of several tens of Gy. In the early phase after the accident, 237 persons were suspected to have acute radiation syndrome as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident, but diagnoses has been confirmed in 134 cases. In that phase 28 person have died as a consequence of exposure. There are significant non - related health disorders and symptoms, such as anxiety, depression and various psychosomatic disorders attributable to mental stress among the population in the region

  17. Estimated consequences from severe spent nuclear fuel transportation accidents

    The RISKIND software package is used to estimate radiological consequences of severe accident scenarios involving the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. Radiological risks are estimated for both a collective population and a maximally exposed individual based on representative truck and rail cask designs described in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) modal study. The estimate of collective population risk considers all possible environmental pathways, including acute and long-term exposures, and is presented in terms of the 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Radiological risks to a maximally exposed individual from acute exposure are estimated and presented in terms of the first year and 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Consequences are estimated for accidents occurring in rural and urban population areas. The modeled pathways include inhalation during initial passing of the radioactive cloud, external exposure from a reduction of the cask shielding, long-term external exposure. from ground deposition, and ingestion from contaminated food (rural only). The major pathways and contributing radionuclides are identified, and the effects of possible mitigative actions are discussed. The cask accident responses and the radionuclide release fractions are modeled as described in the NRC modal study. Estimates of severe accident probabilities are presented for both truck and rail modes of transport. The assumptions made in this study tend to be conservative; however, a set of multiplicative factors are identified that can be applied to estimate more realistic conditions

  18. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

  19. Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

    Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

  20. ASSESSMENT OF THE FUKUSIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCES BY THE POPULATION IN THE FAR EAST

    G. V. Arkhangelskaya

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the attitude of the population in the five regions of the Far East to the consequences of the accident at the Fukushimai nuclear power plant, as well as the issues of informing about the accident. The analysis of public opinion is based on the data obtained by anonymous questionnaire survey performed in November 2011. In spite of the rather active informing and objective information on the absence of the contamination, most of the population of the Russian Far East believes that radioactive contamination is presented in the areas of their residence, and the main cause of this contamination is the nuclear accident in Japan.

  1. Development of evaluation method for economic consequences of severe accident at NPP

    A nuclear power plant accident has onsite and/or offsite consequences. A common framework into which many of the consequences of an accident may be translated is their economic cost. Though there are some consequence analysis codes, these are limited only to estimate only offsite consequence. In this study, economic losses are estimated for the case of onsite and offsite consequences for the sample PWR plant at Yong-Gwang site. For the estimation of offsite consequence, economic database unique to Korean economic structure is utilized as many as possible. By grouping of various cost components, each cost groups are compared each other. For the detailed estimation of offsite decontamination cost, offsite surface around the plant is divided into five types of surface. This division of surface types is agricultural field, wooded land, roof surface for representing house, asphalt road and water surface. But on the water surface, it is assumed that no decontamination operation is required. The comparison shows that at the severe accident, offsite consequences are more severe than onsite consequences. And in agricultural growing season, the consequence even becomes more severe. It also turned out that the importance and selection of much appropriate criteria will play a major role, because the economic consequences are widely varying depending on how the criteria was chosen

  2. Health consequences of the Chernobyl accident: a review

    Full text of publication follows: on April 26, 1996, the accident at Chernobyl nuclear power plant led to the release into the atmosphere of considerable quantities of radionuclides. Most contaminated regions were in the southern Belarus, northern Ukraine and Bryansk and Kaluga regions of Russia. Main population groups exposed to the radioactivity released during the accident were the personnel at the Chernobyl plant and the rescue teams present on-site during the first hours, the cleanup workers (numbering about 600000) who participated in the decontamination and cleaning operations in the 30 km zone around the site, the residents of the same zone who were evacuated (numbering about 115000) and the inhabitants of contaminated zones (≥1 Ci/km2). Dose and dose rate levels as well as exposure pathways differ from one population group to another. A review of scientific articles published in the international literature till 1998 has been carried out. Apart the 28 deaths due to acute radiation sickness which occurred in the personnel of the plant and rescue teams within several days or weeks after the accident, two main public health consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been observed. First an unprecedented epidemic of thyroid cancers was detected in children first in 1992 in Belarus then in the Ukraine and to a lesser extent in Bryansk region. The spontaneous incidence of these tumours was multiplied by 100 in most contaminated regions. Although the role of the accident in this epidemic is now recognised, questions are raised regarding the respective role of radioactive agents and other environmental or genetic factors, and its evolution in the future. Regarding other kinds of solid cancers and leukemia, no excess has been clearly demonstrated in the residents of contaminated areas nor in liquidators. Second, results of available epidemiological investigations show an increased risk of psychological distress in residents of highly contaminated areas

  3. An assessment of the consequences of a research reactor credible accident release

    An analysis of the consequences of a serious credible accident, a coolant flow blockage accident (CFBA) of the Greek research reactor (GRR) is presented. GRR, a 5 MW swimming pool type reactor, is located within Athens the largest population centre of Greece concentrating 32% of its population. To estimate the source term 31 isotopes are taken into consideration and conservative figures of fission product release are adopted. To estimate the CFBA consequences a CRAC2 consequence model version is used. Doses and individual cancer risk from exposure to the passing radioactive cloud are estimated up to a distance of 20km from the reactor site. Collective exposure and latent health effects due to initial exposure and chronic exposure from inhalation of resuspended radionuclides and exposure to groundshine from contaminated ground are estimated for the total Athens area of 3081000 inhabitants. The results of the analysis suggest that the CFBA consequences are not significant. 10 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs. (Author)

  4. Applications of probabilistic accident consequence evaluation in Cuba

    Are presented the approaches and results of the application of Accident Consequence Evaluation methodologies in on emergency in the Juragua Nuclear Power Plant site and a population evaluation of a planned NPP site in the east of the country Findings on population sector weighing and assessment of effectiveness of primary countermeasures in the event of sever accidents (SST1 and PWR4 source terms) in Juragua NPP site are discussed Results on comparative risk-based evaluation of the population predicted evolution (in 3 temporal horizons: base year, 2005 year and 2050 year) for the planned site are described. Evaluation also included sector risk weighing, risk importance of small towns in the nearby of the effects on risk of population freezing and relocation of these villages

  5. Assessment methods and minimization of radiological consequences of nuclear accidents

    The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with the program system COSYMA for assessing the radiological consequences of nuclear accidents, performed since 1997 in close co-operation with the University of Delft, NL, and the NRPB, UK, have been terminated and fully documented. Work on the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents has concentrated on the preparation of the operational version PV 4.0; it will be released by mid 2000. It has been developed and customised to the various regions of Europe in close co-operation with some 40 contract partners in East and West Europe. The operational use of the RODOS system at a central place in Germany and in emergency centres of other West and East European countries is in progress. (orig.)

  6. Chernobyl victims: realistic evaluation of medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Objective assessment of early and delayed medical consequence of the Chernobyl accident is presented. Mortality of people due to acute radiation disease, burns and mechanical injuries are attributed to the early effects. Oncological and genetic diseases are considered as the delayed effects. Delayed radiation effects on the residents of contaminated territories were estimated by epidemiologic examination taking into account the dose due to radioactive fallout. Certain regions of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine were mostly exposed to contamination. Contamination density by 137Cs is considered and radiation doses due to natural sources and Chernobyl accident are compared. Disease incidence is analysed for carcinoma and genetic diseases. Health hazard caused by non-radiation accidental factors (psychological stress, victim psychology thrusting, groundless evacuation) is assessed

  7. Reports of the Chernobyl accident consequences in Brazilian newspapers

    The public perception of the risks associated with nuclear power plants was profoundly influenced by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl Power Plants which also served to exacerbate in the last decades the growing mistrust on the 'nuclear industry'. Part of the mistrust had its origin in the arrogance of nuclear spokesmen and in the secretiveness of nuclear programs. However, press agencies have an important role in shaping and upsizing the public awareness against nuclear energy. In this paper we present the results of a survey in reports of some Brazilian popular newspapers on Chernobyl consequences, as measured by the total death toll of the accident, to show the up and down dance of large numbers without any serious judgment. (author)

  8. Environmental radiological consequences of a loss of coolant accident

    The elaboration of a calculation model to determine safety areas, named Exclusion Zone and Low Population Zone for nuclear power plants, is dealt with. These areas are determined from a radioactive doses calculation for the population living around the NPP after occurence of a postulated ' Maximum Credible Accident' (MCA). The MCA is defined as an accident with complete loss of primary coolant and consequent fusion of a substantial portion of the reactor core. In the calculations carried out, data from NPP Angra I were used and the assumptions made were conservative, to be compatible with licensing requirements. Under the most pessimistic assumption (no filters) the values of 410m and 1000m were obtained for the Exclusion Zone and Low Population Zone radii, respectivily. (Author)

  9. Procedures Guide for Structural Expert Judgement in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    A protocol is outlined for using structured expert judgement to generate uncertainty data for uncertainty analyses. The use of performance based weighting as an instrument to enable optimisation of the aggregated experts' assessments is emphasised. Examples are shown from the EC/USNRC joint study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis. (author)

  10. Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

    The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

  11. Accident analysis in research reactors

    With the sustained development in computer technology, the possibilities of code capabilities have been enlarged substantially. Consequently, advanced safety evaluations and design optimizations that were not possible few years ago can now be performed. The challenge today is to revisit the safety features of the existing nuclear plants and particularly research reactors in order to verify that the safety requirements are still met and - when necessary - to introduce some amendments not only to meet the new requirements but also to introduce new equipment from recent development of new technologies. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an overview of the accident analysis technology applied to the research reactor, with emphasis given to the capabilities of computational tools. (author)

  12. Accident consequence studies for large fast breeder reactor containments built of concrete or steel

    A numerical analysis of accident consequences in a fast breeder reactor of commercial size after complete loss-of-heat-sink was performed, using the CONTAIN code. Two containment types were studied, which differ in the material used for shielding, support and confinement structures. It was found that the replacement of concrete as principal construction material by steel offers a significant potential for consequence mitigation in terms of thermal and pressure loads and of retention capability

  13. The accident consequence model of the German safety study

    The accident consequence model essentially describes a) the diffusion in the atmosphere and deposition on the soil of radioactive material released from the reactor into the atmosphere; b) the irradiation exposure and health consequences of persons affected. It is used to calculate c) the number of persons suffering from acute or late damage, taking into account possible counteractions such as relocation or evacuation, and d) the total risk to the population from the various types of accident. The model, the underlying parameters and assumptions are described. The bone marrow dose distribution is shown for the case of late overpressure containment failure, which is discussed in the paper of Heuser/Kotthoff, combined with four typical weather conditions. The probability distribution functions for acute mortality, late incidence of cancer and genetic damage are evaluated, assuming a characteristic population distribution. The aim of these calculations is first the presentation of some results of the consequence model as an example, in second the identification of problems, which need possibly in a second phase of study to be evaluated in more detail. (orig.)

  14. Thyroid Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Accident

    Nagataki, Shigenobu

    2012-01-01

    Background A special report, ‘The Fukushima Accident’, was delivered at the 35th Annual Meeting of the European Thyroid Association in Krakow on September 11, 2011, and this study is the follow-up of the special report. Objectives To present a preliminary review of potential thyroid consequences of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. Methods Numerous new data have been presented in Japanese, and most of them are available on the website from each research institute and/or from each m...

  15. Primary disability of the Chernobyl Accident consequences liquidators

    The structure of courses of the primary invalidism of the Chernobyl accident consequences liquidators is studies. The main reasons of the loss of a capacity for work are blood circulation diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (19.9%), diseases of the nervous system and sense organs (9.7%), mental disorders (5.9%) and endocrine diseases (5.5%). The invalids distribution in the different regions and in different age groups according to the disease forms is analysed. The average durations of the diseases resulting in the primary invalidism are about 2.8 years. In average the illnesses began in the 3.1 years. 6 refs

  16. Tank waste compositions and atmospheric dispersion coefficients for use in accelerated safety analysis consequence assessments. Revision 1

    This topical report contains technical support information used to determine accident consequences for the Tank Farms Accelerated Safety Analysis (ASA) Interim Chapter 3, Hazard and Accident Analysis: Potential for Releases and Required Mitigation and Prevention and the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) environmental impact statement (EIS) accident consequence report. It does not determine accident consequences or describe specific accident scenarios, but instead provides generic information used to calculate radiological and toxic chemical consequences for postulated tank farms accident releases

  17. Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

    In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

  18. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for serious accident consequences of nuclear power plant

    An analysis method for the PSA of the serious accident consequences of nuclear power plant was introduced and the operation rules, i.e. U5 rules on avoiding the containment failure of the nuclear power plant was put forward by the France. When the nuclear power plant happened core meltdown accident and caused the raising of internal pressure due to the spray failure of the containment, the U5 rules will make the gas inside the containment releasing to the environment through sand-bed filter, then the pressure in the containment will be relieved. The practical calculation was based on the being built nuclear power plant as the chief source. The effect of U5 rules on the serious accident consequences of the nuclear power plant was analysed. In conclusion, some valuable results were given

  19. Radiological consequence of Chernobyl nuclear power accident in Japan

    Two years have elapsed since the accident in Chernobyl nuclear power station shocked those concerned with nuclear power generation. The effect that this accident exerted on human environment has still continued directly and indirectly, and the reports on the effect have been made in various countries and by international organizations. In Japan, about the exposure dose of Japanese people due to this accident, the Nuclear Safety Commission and Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute issued the reports. In this report, the available data concerning the envrionmental radioactivity level in Japan due to the Chernobyl accident are collected, and the evaluation of exposure dose which seems most appropriate from the present day scientific viewpoint was attempted by the detailed analysis in the National Institute of Radiological Sciences. The enormous number of the data observed in various parts of Japan were different in sampling, locality, time and measuring method, so difficulty arose frequently. The maximum concentration of I-131 in floating dust was 2.5 Bq/m3 observed in Fukui, and the same kinds of radioactive nuclides as those in Europe were detected. (Kako, I.)

  20. Safety analysis of WWER-440 nuclear power plants: Potential consequences of a large primary to secondary system leakage accident. Additional information

    . The general scope and results of the programme are reviewed at relevant Technical Cooperation and advisory group meetings. Guidance relevant to water moderated, water cooled WWER-type reactors and graphite moderated, boiling water RBMK type reactors has been developed within the IAEA's Extrabudgetary Programme on the Safety of WWER-and RBMK nuclear power plants. To a certain extent, accident analysis is also covered in several publications of the IAEA Safety Standards series, for example in the Safety Requirements on Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design (NS-R-1) and in the Safety Guide on Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants (NS-G-1.2). Consistent with these publications, the IAEA also developed a Safety Report on Accident Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants (Safety Reports Series No. 23). A Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Assessment of the Interfaces between Neutronic, Thermohydraulic, Structural and Radiological Aspects in Accident Analysis was implemented from 2003 to 2005 to comprehensively evaluate a complex accident scenario within the framework of the IAEA subprogramme on Development of Safety Assessment Methods and Tools. Twelve organizations from eight Member States participated in the CRP. This report provides a summary of the CRP. Results, recommendations and conclusions resulting from the IAEA programme are intended only to assist national decision makers who have the sole responsibility for the regulation and safe operation of their nuclear power plants. Moreover, they do not replace a comprehensive safety assessment which needs to be performed in the framework of the national licensing process. Complementary to the main body of the report, detailed results of the analyses are provided in Annexes I (Evaluation of Possible Hazards) and II (Uncertainty Evaluation) on this CD-ROM attached to the printed TECDOC

  1. Joint CEC/OECD(NEA) workshop on recent advances in reactor accident consequence assessment

    The workshop on probabilistic accident consequence assessment techniques and their applications aims at a review of the present knowledge of all the work in this field. This includes the atmospheric dispersion and deposition modelling, with comparison of the different approaches, the exposure pathways with emphasis on post-deposition processes, the health effects with emphasis on the consequences of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki data re-evaluation, the countermeasures and their economic consequences, the uncertainty analysis of the models and finally the applications of these models as aids to decision making

  2. On the application of near accident data to risk analysis of major accidents

    Major accidents are low frequency high consequence events which are not well supported by conventional statistical methods due to data scarcity. In the absence or shortage of major accident direct data, the use of partially related data of near accidentsaccident precursor data – has drawn much attention. In the present work, a methodology has been proposed based on hierarchical Bayesian analysis and accident precursor data to risk analysis of major accidents. While hierarchical Bayesian analysis facilitates incorporation of generic data into the analysis, the dependency and interaction between accident and near accident data can be encoded via a multinomial likelihood function. We applied the proposed methodology to risk analysis of offshore blowouts and demonstrated its outperformance compared to conventional approaches. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk analysis is applied to model major accidents. • Two-stage Bayesian updating is used to generate informative distributions. • Accident precursor data are used to develop likelihood function. • A multinomial likelihood function is introduced to model dependencies among data

  3. Final report of the accident phenomenology and consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation. Spills Working Group

    Brereton, S.; Shinn, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hesse, D [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States); Kaninich, D. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Lazaro, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Mubayi, V. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-08-01

    The Spills Working Group was one of six working groups established under the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation program. The objectives of APAC were to assess methodologies available in the accident phenomenology and consequence analysis area and to evaluate their adequacy for use in preparing DOE facility safety basis documentation, such as Basis for Interim Operation (BIO), Justification for Continued Operation (JCO), Hazard Analysis Documents, and Safety Analysis Reports (SARs). Additional objectives of APAC were to identify development needs and to define standard practices to be followed in the analyses supporting facility safety basis documentation. The Spills Working Group focused on methodologies for estimating four types of spill source terms: liquid chemical spills and evaporation, pressurized liquid/gas releases, solid spills and resuspension/sublimation, and resuspension of particulate matter from liquid spills.

  4. Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl

    The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion

  5. Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl

    Ginzburg, H.M.; Reis, E. (Health Resources and Services Administration, Rockville, MD (USA))

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion.

  6. Mitigation of Severe Accident Consequences Using Inherent Safety Principles

    The safety challenges associated with sodium-cooled fast reactors have been recognized since the beginning of nuclear power and include the high power density in the core, the need for a reactor coolant and heat transfer system with high heat removal capability, the variation of power across the core requiring the use of ducted assemblies, and the condition that the fuel is not in the most neutronically reactive configuration during normal operation such that relocation can result in positive reactivity excursions, even possibly exceeding prompt critical conditions and energetic events. The potential for accidents with such severe consequences has been a negative factor with respect to the use of the sodium-cooled fast reactor. With the development of inherent safety principles, including favorable reactivity feedback, natural circulation cooling, and design choices resulting in favorable dispersive characteristics for failed fuel, it is possible to greatly increase the level of safety, to the point where it is highly unlikely, or perhaps even not possible, for accidents to result in releases of hghly radioactive materials to the containment or the surrounding environment. (author)

  7. Towards more realistic assessment of reactor accident consequences

    The purpose of the Nordic project described in the report has been to improve the data base used in accident consequence assessments, and also to improve the assessment models in use in the Nordic countries. The following data related questions have been dealt with: Terrestrial transfer factors, the freshwater pathways, comparison of dynamic and static calculation models for fish, and the shielding effect of buildings. The work on terrestrial transfer factors has resulted in the generation of a Nordic fallout data bank. The following experimental investigations have been performed: Natural decontamination of roofs under summer and winter conditions, deposition in urban areas, and the filter effect of buildings. Various aspects of mitigating actions have also been examined

  8. Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.)

  9. Level of health of cleaners taking part in the Chernobyl accident consequences

    During the period of 1986-1988 about 3,000 Moldova citizens took part in Chernobyl NPP accident consequences elimination. In this article the level of morbidity, disability and mortality among Chernobyl accident consequences liquidation participants is analyzed. As a result of analysis of medical documentation and statistical data was revealed that the sickness rate among disaster fighters 2,3 times higher than general sickness rate of the population in Moldova. Disability in this category is at average of 73 per cent as opposed to the overall index for the population of Moldova - 4,4%, this means it is 17 times higher. Mortality among the participants of the accident at Chernobyl NPP is 6 times higher of general data. The participants of the breakdown elimination of Chernobyl accident consequences are equal in their right with the participants and invalids of war and with the disabled workers. Medical and social security of this group is regulated by the legislation of the Republic of Moldova

  10. An assessment of the consequences of the Greek Research Reactor's design basis accident: sensitivity to the meteorological record

    The sensitivity of the Greek Research Reactor's design basis accident consequences to the meteorological record, as far as Athens population is concerned, is assessed in this report. Meteorological data of six years of the National Observatory of Athens are analyzed and utilized in the accident consequence calculation model by using weather categories. The results of the present analysis indicate that the meteorological record does not have a significant impact on predicted consequences, which in turn indicates that the utilization of a substitute meteorological record from a nearby meteorological station instead of the reactor's site record could be acceptable for performing consequence analyses. (author)

  11. The accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear power plant and its consequences. Pt. 1. General material

    The report contains a presentation of the Chernobyl' nuclear power station and of the RBMK-1000 reactor, including its principal physical characteristics, the safety systems and a description of the site and of the surrounding region. After a chronological account of the events which led to the accident and an analysis of the accident using a mathematical model it is concluded that the prime cause of the accident was an extremely improbable combination of violations of instructions and operating rules committed by the staff of the unit. Technical and organizational measures for improving the safety of nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors have been taken. A detailed description of the actions taken to contain the accident and to alleviate its consequences is given and includes the fire fighting at the nuclear power station, the evaluation of the state of the fuel after the accident, the actions taken to limit the consequences of the accident in the core, the measures taken at units 1, 2 and 3 of the nuclear power station, the monitoring and diagnosis of the state of the damaged unit, the decontamination of the site and of the 30 km zone and the long-term entombment of the damaged unit. The measures taken for environmental radioactive contamination monitoring, starting by the assessment of the quantity, composition and dynamics of fission products release from the damaged reactor are described, including the main characteristics of the radioactive contamination of the atmosphere and of the ground, the possible ecological consequences and data on the exposure of plant and emergency service personnel and of the population in the 30 km zone around the plant. The last part of the report presents some recommendations for improving nuclear power safety, including scientific, technical and organizational aspects and international measures. Finally, an overview of the development of nuclear power in the USSR is given

  12. Severe accident analysis methodology in support of accident management

    The author addresses the implementation at BELGATOM of a generic severe accident analysis methodology, which is intended to support strategic decisions and to provide quantitative information in support of severe accident management. The analysis methodology is based on a combination of severe accident code calculations, generic phenomenological information (experimental evidence from various test facilities regarding issues beyond present code capabilities) and detailed plant-specific technical information

  13. RADIATION-HYGIENIC AND MEDICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE СHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: RESULTS AND PROGNOSIS

    G. G. Onischenko

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An article is devoted to the analysis of the radiation situation in the dynamics during the years since the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. Data on the scope of activities fulfilled for the assessment of the territories radioactive contamination levels and foodstuffs contamination levels, on the values of the exposure doses for the population living on the contaminated territories, on the medical and socio-psychological consequences of the Chernobyl accident is presented. Basic norms and principles, used during the protective measures development and introduction, are considered, their effectiveness is demonstrated. Mistakes emerged during protective measures implementation are analyzed, the prognosis of the population exposure dose values for the 70-year period since the accident and main directions of activities for the contaminated territories remediation and normal life conditions restoration for the population at these territories are presented.

  14. An assessment of the radiological consequences of accidents in research reactors

    This work analyses the radiological consequences of accidents in two types of research reactors: a 5 MWt open pool reactor and a 50 MWt PWR reactor. Two siting cases have been considered: the reactor located near to a large population center and sited in a rural area. The influence of several factors such as source term, meteorological conditions and population distribution have been considered in the present analysis. (author)

  15. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  18. PSYCHIATRIC CONSEQUENCES OF STRESS AFTER A VEHICLE ACCIDENT

    Dickov, Aleksandra; Martinović-Mitrović, Sladjana; Vučković, Nikola; Siladji-Mladenović, Djendji; Mitrović, Dragan; Jovičević, Mirjana; Mišić-Pavkov, Gordana

    2009-01-01

    Background: Vehicle accidents are a common cause of disease and death among people over 30 years of age. Essentially, reaction to stress due to the vehicle accident does not differ from the reaction to other stress factors. There are still no uniform viewpoints about the kind of sequels and their percentage representation after vehicle accidents. Subjects and methods: The research was provided as a prospective study, included 150 subjects who had vehicle accident minimum 2 years prior to t...

  19. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Modification of models resulting from addition of effects of exposure to alpha-emitting radionuclides: Revision 1, Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models, Addendum 2

    Abrahamson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.; Gilbert, E.S. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysis{close_quotes}, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,{close_quotes} was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model.

  20. Process criticality accident likelihoods, consequences, and emergency planning

    Evaluation of criticality accident risks in the processing of significant quantities of fissile materials is both complex and subjective, largely due to the lack of accident statistics. Thus, complying with standards such as ISO 7753 which mandates that the need for an alarm system be evaluated, is also subjective. A review of guidance found in the literature on potential accident magnitudes is presented for different material forms and arrangements. Reasoned arguments are also presented concerning accident prevention and accident likelihoods for these material forms and arrangements. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  1. Adaptation of COSYMA and assessment of accident consequences for Daya Bay nuclear power plant in China

    The program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological and economic consequences of nuclear accidents, developed with the support of the European Commission, was applied to investigate the health effects and risks from accidental releases of radioactive material from the Daya Bay nuclear power plant. Population distribution data in the range of 80 km around the site and hourly meteorological data for the year 1985 representative of accident consequence analysis were used. The results showed that early effects are more important at distances closer to the site, while the number of fatal cancers is closely related to the population density and the late effects are still important at distances larger than 50 km from the site. The mean annual expected values for early mortality and late mortality estimated for the population within a circle of 80 km around the Daya Bay nuclear power plant are 4.5x10-3 and 0.1 yr-1, respectively

  2. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH

  3. The aftermath of nuclear accidents on mental health; Consequences des accidents radiologiques sur la sante mentale

    Pirard, Ph.; Brenot, J.; Verger, P. [CEA Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

    1998-10-01

    Technological disasters bring about psychological effects in exposed populations of various durability and intensity. This article reviews the epidemiological studies which assess psychological and psychiatric consequences of the Three Mile Island, Goieanna and Chernobyl accidents. It shows, in different accidental and cultural contexts, a statistically significant and durable increase of psychological symptoms in various exposed population groups, which points out an actual psychological distress. Diagnosed psychiatric effects are less constant, but much less studied. Most affected groups are mothers of young children, relocated persons, persons with less social support or in financial trouble. The psychological distress can further psychiatric disorders and give rise to behavioural changes towards health. More research is necessary to delineate the nature and the determinants of the observed symptoms and disorders. It implies to design better tools for the assessment of individual exposure and the diagnosis of mental health effects. (authors)

  4. The primal application research of figure assimilation theory in the nuclear accident consequence forecast

    The deepgoing research of figure assimilation theory promotes many subjects' rapid development. This article outlooks the application of figure assimilation technique in the nuclear accident consequence forecast. The nuclear accident consequence forecast is a complicated system which needs rapidity and precision, so it is quiet difficult. but after the insertion of figure assimilation, it pushes on one step about the question. (authors)

  5. Measures for reduction of severe accident consequences: Comprehensive evaluation of the results sponsored by the BMI

    A number of analytical studies were initial in the past by the Federal Ministry of Interior (BMI) of FRG, to investigate the potential of additional constructive measures for risk reduction. Those measures were proposed especially against uncontrolled overpressurization of the containment due to continuous gas/steam generation, penetration of the foundation of the reactor building by melt-concrete interaction, and failure of the containment due to violent hydrogen combustion. This report gives an overview about those studies and summarizes their results. Concerning uncontrolled overpressurization, only filtered venting may be a reasonable measure, while it seems to make not much sense, to look at measures against penetration of the foundation like 'core-catcher' in further detail. To prevent hydrogen combustion with severe consequences, several potential possibilities exist, but none of them can be considered as a safe measure. Additional analysis concerning hydrogen distribution and combustion in a multi-compartment containment are necessary. All studies mentioned in this report, deal with additional constructive measures to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents. Up to day in FRG, the potential of accident prevention and mitigation of its consequences by still or again operable and already existing systems of a plant have not been investigated in detail. As indicated by first results, the use of those systems in the frame of an appropriate accident management may have a large potential for risk reduction. (orig.)

  6. Preliminary analysis of radiologic consequence in accident cases with radiation sources in laboratories of the Physics Department of the IEN, cyclotrons and laboratories annexed

    The requirements necessaries to the elaboration of the situation of Emergency PLans of the Nuclear Engineering Institute (IEN), Brazil, in particular, cases of radiation emergency are presented. An estimate of radiation in the laboratories of the Physic Department of the IEN, in case of accident, are given. The results presented are based in some hypothesis, values of radionuclide activity furnished by Radioisotopes Division and values of activities estimated by Radiation Protection Section of the IEN in function of datas achieved with cyclotron Division. The dose calculations are done to the cases of radionuclides inhalation and immersion of person in a semi-infinite cloud of contaminants. (V.R.B.)

  7. Radiological consequences of the Three Mile Island accident

    The Three Mile Island Accident is described. The pathway and quantity of radioactive materials released, the radiological monitoring results and health effects are discussed. It was concluded that while radiological releases were small in view of the magnitude of fuel damage, the accident indicated that better health physics instrumentation and personnel training is required. (H.K.)

  8. Immediate medical consequences of nuclear accidents: lessons from Chernobyl

    The immediate medical response to the nuclear accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station involved containment of the radioactivity and evacuation of the nearby population. The next step consisted of assessment of the radiation dose received by individuals, based on biological dosimetry, and treatment of those exposed. Medical care involved treatment of skin burns; measures to support bone marrow failure, gastrointestinal tract injury, and other organ damage (i.e., infection prophylaxis and transfusions) for those with lower radiation dose exposure; and bone marrow transplantation for those exposed to a high dose of radiation. At Chernobyl, two victims died immediately and 29 died of radiation or thermal injuries in the next three months. The remaining victims of the accident are currently well. A nuclear accident anywhere is a nuclear accident everywhere. Prevention and cooperation in response to these accidents are essential goals

  9. 氯乙烯储罐泄漏火灾爆炸事故后果分析%Analysis of Vinyl Chloride Tank Leakage Fire Explosion Accident Consequence

    王小蓉; 杨震; 王海波; 吴平霄

    2016-01-01

    The leakage accidents of toxicant gases in chemical disasters seriously endanger public security. The diffusion range of toxicant gases depends on a variety of factors. The influence of internal and external factors to diffusion range of a vinyl chloride leakage could be simulated based on ALOHA software. Internal factors mainly include the aperture of leakage hole, liquid quality and leakage location. External factors mainly involve wind speed, air temperature, air humidity and atmospheric stability. The main idea of the simulation is to control one of the variable factors in order to observe the influence that brings to leakage range. The conclusion provides reference for the compartmentalization of diffusion range and emergency disposal of vinyl chloride leakage, fire and explosion accident by comparing the influencing trend of every factor to the size of the threaten area.%化学灾害事故中的有毒气体泄漏事故严重危害公共安全。泄漏事故发生后,有毒气体在单位时间内的扩散范围受多种因素的影响。利用ALOHA 软件可以模拟内外因对氯乙烯泄漏事故泄漏范围的影响,内因主要包括泄漏管径、罐内液体质量、泄漏位置。外因主要有风速、空气温度、湿度和稳定度。模拟的主要思路是,控制其中一个变量的变化以观察其对泄漏范围的影响,为氯乙烯泄漏、火灾爆炸事故的警戒范围的快速划分和事故应急处置提供参考。

  10. The consequences from liquid pathways after a reactor meltdown accident

    The potential radiological impact of a core-melt accident on the human population has been investigated. In particular, the radiation dose received from radioactivity which could reach the population via liquid pathways has been considered. Radioactivity could be released directly to the hydrosphere after a core-melt accident as a result of melt-through of the containment basemat followed by any of three processes: (1) leaching of the melt debris; 2 escape of sumpwater through the hole formed by the melt (or from passage out of the containment by an alternate route); and 3) depressurization of the containment atmosphere through the melt hole. The three types of releases would differ primarily in their rates, their magnitudes and their radioactive compositions. Both the containment atmosphere and the sumpwater releases would occur relatively rapidly. However, most of the radionuclides present in these two releases in substantial quantities would be expected to be rather short-lived. Therefore, such releases could have a significant impact at a specific site only if the travel times of the important radionuclides to the human population were small. In contrast, leaching of radionuclides from the melt debris would be expected to occur relatively slowly. Most of the long-lived isotopes would be expected to be found primarily in the melt debris. Consequently, even though this release occurred relatively slowly, the impact could still be significant. In contrast to the situation for releases to the atmosphere, accidents corresponding to the most probable RSS (Reactor Safety Study) meltdown categories would result in the largest releases to the hydrosphere. Furthermore, substantial amounts of radioactivity would generally be expected to be released to the hydrosphere during any meltdown accident involving complete melt-through of the containment basemat. On the basis of subsurface hydrologies alone, sites range from those that essentially preclude any impacts to the human

  11. Radiological consequences of accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in a deep borehole

    Grundfelt, Bertil [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2013-07-15

    In this report, an analysis of the radiological consequences of potential accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep boreholes is presented. The results presented should be seen as coarse estimates of possible radiological consequences of a canister being stuck in a borehole during disposal rather than being the results of a full safety analysis. In the concept for deep borehole disposal of spent nuclear fuel developed by Sandia National Laboratories, the fuel is assumed to be encapsulated in mild steel canisters and stacked between 3 and 5 km depth in boreholes that are cased with perforated mild steel casing tubes. The canisters are joined together by couplings to form strings of 40 canisters and lowered into the borehole. When a canister string has been emplaced in the borehole, a bridge plug is installed above the string and a 10 metres long concrete plug is cast on top of the bridge plug creating a floor for the disposal of the next sting. In total 10 canister strings, in all 400 canisters, are assumed to be disposed of at between 3 and 5 kilometres depth in one borehole. An analysis of potential accidents during the disposal operations shows that the potentially worst accident would be that a canister string is stuck above the disposal zone of a borehole and cannot be retrieved. In such a case, the borehole may have to be sealed in the best possible way and abandoned. The consequences of this could be that one or more leaking canisters are stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater. In the case of a leaking canister being stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater, the potential radiological consequences are likely to be dominated by the release of the so-called Instant Release Fraction (IRF) of the radionuclide inventory, i.e. the fraction of the radionuclides that as a consequence of the in-core conditions are present in the annulus between the fuel pellets and the cladding or on the grain boundaries of the UO{sub 2} matrix

  12. Prevention of "simple accidents at work" with major consequences

    Jørgensen, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    prevention or safety methodologies and procedures established for major accidents are applicable to simple accidents. The article goes back to basics about accidents causes, to review the nature of successful prevention techniques and to analyze what have been constraints to getting this knowledge used more...... broadly. This review identifies gaps in the prevention of simple accidents, relating to safety barriers for risk control and the management processes that need to be in place to deliver those risk controls in a continuingly effective state. The article introduces the ‘‘INFO cards’’ as a tool for the...... systematic observation of hazard sources in order to ascertain whether safety barriers and management deliveries are present. Safety management and safety culture, together with the INFO cards are important factors in the prevention process. The conclusion is that we must look at safety as a part of being a...

  13. Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl.

    Ginzburg, H M; Reis, E.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to m...

  14. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

    1997-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  15. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.; Buncher, C.; Denniston, C.; Gilbert, E.; Hahn, F.; Hertzberg, V.; Maxon, H.; Scott, B.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.

  16. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs

  17. Genetic consequences of the Chernobyl accident for Belarus republic

    various uncertainties. Only direct methods, which count the final effect, with all their drawbacks, can provide accurate information on genetic losses. We have estimated possible genetic consequences for the residents of Belarus Republic due to the Chernobyl accident by studying malformations found in legal medical abortuses and by counting congenital anomalies in fetuses and newborns. (J.P.N.)

  18. Functional status of thyroid of Chernobyl accident consequences liquidators after 10 years after disaster

    Analysis of Chernobyl accident consequences liquidators' complaints is carried out and their clinical surveillance is conducted as well. Pronounced disorders of neuro-immune-endocrine system of the liquidators majority and ahill reflex latency half-period prolongation have been observed. By data of ultrasonic study the majority of examined ones have thyroid hyperplasia without features of chronic autoimmune inflammation and formation of adenomatous knots. Thyroid levels of hormone concentration are reduced. There is direct dependence between hormones levels and irradiation dose. The is concluded, that in delayed period after irradiation by low doses the hypo-function status of thyroid is observing

  19. Severe accident analysis to verify the effectiveness of severe accident management guidelines for large pressurized heavy water reactor

    Highlights: • The progression of severe accident initiated from high pressure scenario of station black out has been analyzed using RELAP5/SCDAP. • The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been established through analysis. • The time margin available to invoke the SAMG action has been specified. - Abstract: The pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) contains both inherent and engineered safety features that help the reactor become resistant to severe accident and its consequences. However in case of a low frequency severe accident, despite the safety features, procedural action should be in place to mitigate the accident progression. Severe accident analysis of such low frequency event provides insight into the accident progression and basis to develop the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Since the order of uncertainty in the progression path of severe accident is very high, it is necessary to study the consequences of the SAMG actions prescribed. The paper discusses severe accident analysis for large PHWRs for multiple failure transients involving a high pressure scenario (initiation event like SBO with loss of emergency core cooling system and loss of moderator cooling). SAMG actions prescribed for such a scenario include water injection into steam generator, calandria vessel or calandria vault at different stages of accident. The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been investigated. It is found that there is sufficient time margin available to the operator to execute these SAMG actions and the progression of severe accident is arrested in all the three cases

  20. Severe accident analysis to verify the effectiveness of severe accident management guidelines for large pressurized heavy water reactor

    Gokhale, O.S., E-mail: onkarsg@barc.gov.in; Mukhopadhyay, D., E-mail: dmukho@barc.gov.in; Lele, H.G., E-mail: hglele@barc.gov.in; Singh, R.K., E-mail: rksingh@barc.gov.in

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • The progression of severe accident initiated from high pressure scenario of station black out has been analyzed using RELAP5/SCDAP. • The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been established through analysis. • The time margin available to invoke the SAMG action has been specified. - Abstract: The pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) contains both inherent and engineered safety features that help the reactor become resistant to severe accident and its consequences. However in case of a low frequency severe accident, despite the safety features, procedural action should be in place to mitigate the accident progression. Severe accident analysis of such low frequency event provides insight into the accident progression and basis to develop the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Since the order of uncertainty in the progression path of severe accident is very high, it is necessary to study the consequences of the SAMG actions prescribed. The paper discusses severe accident analysis for large PHWRs for multiple failure transients involving a high pressure scenario (initiation event like SBO with loss of emergency core cooling system and loss of moderator cooling). SAMG actions prescribed for such a scenario include water injection into steam generator, calandria vessel or calandria vault at different stages of accident. The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been investigated. It is found that there is sufficient time margin available to the operator to execute these SAMG actions and the progression of severe accident is arrested in all the three cases.

  1. PWR Core 2 Project accident analysis

    The various operations required for receipt, handling, defueling and storage of spent Shippingport PWR Core 2 fuel assemblies have been evaluated to determine the potential accidents and their consequences. These operations will introduce approximately 16,500 kilograms of depleted natural uranium (as UO2), 139 kilograms of plutonium, 2.8 megacuries of mixed fission products, and 14 kilograms of Zircaloy-4 (cladding and hardware) into the 221-T Canyon Building. Event sequences for potential accidents that were considered included (1) leaking fuel assemblies, (2) fire and explosion, (3) loss of coolant or cooling capability, (4) dropped and/or damaged fuel assemblies, and extrinsic occurrences such as loss of services, missile impact, and natural occurrences (e.g., earthquake, tornado). Accident frequencies were determined by formal analysis to be very low. Accident consequences are greatly mitigated by the safety and containment features designed into the fuel modules and shipping cask, the long cooling time since reactor discharge, and the redundant safety features designed into the facilities, equipment, and operating procedures for the PWR Core 2 Project. Possible hazards associated with the handling of these fuels have been considered and adequate safeguards and storage constraints identified. The operations of M-160 cask unloading and module storage will not involve identifiable risks as great or significantly greater than those for comparable licensed nuclear facilities, nor will hazards or risks be significantly different from comparable past 221-T Plant programs. Therefore, it is concluded that the operations required for receipt, handling, and defueling of the M-160 cask and for the storage and surveillance of the PWR Core 2 fuel assemblies at the 221-T Canyon Building can be performed without undue risk to the safety of the involved personnel, the public, the environment or the facility

  2. Probabilistic accident sequence recovery analysis

    Recovery analysis is a method that considers alternative strategies for preventing accidents in nuclear power plants during probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Consideration of possible recovery actions in PRAs has been controversial, and there seems to be a widely held belief among PRA practitioners, utility staff, plant operators, and regulators that the results of recovery analysis should be skeptically viewed. This paper provides a framework for discussing recovery strategies, thus lending credibility to the process and enhancing regulatory acceptance of PRA results and conclusions. (author)

  3. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  5. Radiation-biological consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    The paper points out essential aspects of the actual or potential impact of the Chernobyl reactor accident on human health in the areas immediately affected. In particular, radiation-induced diseases in the population are pointed out, which were caused by radioactive iodine. Epidemiological studies try to establish an increased incidence of leukaemia, lymphomas, and thyroid gland tumours. (DG)

  6. Comparison of Commonly Used Accident Analysis Techniques for Manufacturing Industries

    IRAJ MOHAMMADFAM

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The adverse consequences of major accident events have led to development of accident analysis techniques to investigate thoroughly the accidents. However, each technique has its own advantages and shortcomings,which make it very difficult to find a single technique being capable of analyzing all types of accidents. Therefore, the comparison of accident analysis techniques would help finding out their capabilities in different circumstances to choose the most one. In this research, the techniques CBA and AABF were compared with Tripod β in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of major accidents in manufacturing industries. At first step, the comparison criteria were developed using Delphi Method. Afterwards, the relative importance of each criterion was qualitatively determined and the qualitative values were then converted to the quantitative values  applying  Fuzzy  triangular  numbers.  Finally,  the  TOPSIS  was  used  to  prioritize  the techniques in terms of the preset criteria. The results of the study showed that Tripod β is superior to the CBA and AABF. It is highly recommended to compare all available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria in order to select the best one whereas improper choice of accident analysis techniques may lead to misguided results.

  7. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENTS RATE OF AGRICULTURAL OFF-ROAD VEHICLES

    Veronika Váliková

    2013-01-01

    In this contribution, we deal with the analysis of the accident rate of agricultural off-road vehicles and fatality figure of service personnel. We analyse reasons of accidents of agricultural mechanisms, however mostly tractors,as well as their consequences. The research was oriented mainly to machine overturn (rollover). We also analyse injuries of service personnel that occurred following the vehicle rollover as well as following the disregard of occupational safety regulations. In the con...

  8. The Chernobyl Accident 20 Years On: An Assessment of the Health Consequences and the International Response

    Baverstock, Keith; Williams, Dillwyn

    2006-01-01

    Background The Chernobyl accident in 1986 caused widespread radioactive contamination and enormous concern. Twenty years later, the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Authority issued a generally reassuring statement about the consequences. Accurate assessment of the consequences is important to the current debate on nuclear power. Objectives Our objectives in this study were to evaluate the health impact of the Chernobyl accident, assess the international response ...

  9. The international conference ''one decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident''

    An International Conference entitled ''One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident'' was held at the Austria Center Vienna from 8 to 12 April 1996, the aim being to seek a common and conclusive understanding of the nature and magnitude of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. The Conference was attended by 845 participants and observers from 71 countries and 20 organizations and covered by 208 journalists from 31 countries and two organizations

  10. Severe accident analysis using dynamic accident progression event trees

    Hakobyan, Aram P.

    In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code [1]. A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a

  11. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph. [Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, CEA Centre d' Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France)

    1997-11-01

    This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m{sup -2}), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at presentthe dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 {mu}Sv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded

  12. Russian National Chernobyl Register as information and and analytical for Chernobyl accident medical consequences estimation

    The paper is devoted to using of the National Radiation and Epidemiology Register basic part, namely the Russian State Medical-Dosimetric Register of the people affected by the Chernobyl accident, to estimate the medical consequences of the accident. First part of article presents the common description and current state of Register. The estimation of medical consequences of the accident for clean-up workers is given in second part. The prognosis of radiation effects and definition of basic epidemiology factors to propose optimal medicalrehabilitation measures is discussed

  13. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 4/5. Radiological Consequences

    description of the main aspects of radiation protection related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. Section 4.4 presents a review of post-accident studies of the health of members of the public and workers, including the possible radiation induced health effects and psychological consequences to individuals resulting from the accident. Section 4.5 covers the impact of the radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP on the environment (more specifically on non-human biota). The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) methodology has been applied to estimate dose and effects to a range of reference animals and plants from the marine, terrestrial and freshwater environments. There are 2 appendices and 12 annexes that provide supplementary information. Appendix I contains maps of levels of radioactivity and radionuclides in the environment. Appendix II provides details of a statistical analysis of individual dose data. The annexes are included on the CD-ROM attached to this volume and provide the following information: – Annex I: Characteristics and measurement of radioactivity and radiation levels. – Annex II: Local and regional meteorological conditions in east Japan during 11–23 March 2011. – Annex III: Levels of radioactivity in the terrestrial environment. – Annex IV: Radioactivity in the marine environment arising from releases following the Fukushima Daiichi accident. – Annex V: UNSCEAR assessment of the dose to the public

  14. One decade after Chernobyl. Summing up the consequences of the accident. Proceedings of an international conference

    The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European Commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. Refs, figs, tabs

  15. Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on

    Cardis, Elisabeth [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08 (France); Howe, Geoffrey [Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W. 168th Street, Room 1104, New York, NY 10032 (United States); Ron, Elaine [Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Building EPS, MS 7238, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States)] (and others)

    2006-06-15

    26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed. (rev0009i.

  16. The radioecological consequences of Chernobyl accident for fish

    The estimate of dynamics of radionuclides concentration in muscles of some game-fish from Kiev reservoir and likes in Bryansk region for period after Chernobyl accident was carried out. The concentration of 137Cs in fish has not exceeded the admissible concentration (600 Bq/kg ww) since 1993. The exceptions are the cooling-pond of Chernobyl NPP and Kozlanovskoe Lake where the concentration of 137Cs in fish's muscles exceeded the admissible level more than 5-6 times even in 1995. It was concluded that chronic irradiation of game-fish in water bodies outside 30-km zone would not affect the volume of fishing

  17. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France. Thematic sheets; Les consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Fiches thematiques

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This document proposes a set of commented maps, graphs and drawings which illustrate and describe various consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, such as air contamination (scattering of radioactive particles emitted by the reactor explosion by the wind over thousands of kilometres, evolution of air contamination between April 30 and May 5 1986), ground deposits (influence of rain, heterogeneity of these deposits), contamination of farm products (relationship between the accident date and the deposit characteristics, variable decrease rate of contamination, faster decrease of farm product contamination that caesium radioactive decay since 1987, particular cases of some more sensitive products), health effects (low doses received by the French population, concerns about thyroid cancers)

  18. Accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and its consequences

    In the early morning of April 26, 1986, as the culmination of an almost incredible series of errors that began 24 hours earlier, Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear complex, a so-called RBMK-1000 reactor, suffered the worst accident in the history of commercial nuclear power. There was an uncontrolled nuclear excursion, release of a large amount of energy, possibly comparable to hundreds of pounds of TNT, blowing the top off the reactor. There was no containment, in the traditional American sense, so the roof of the building was blown out, an unprecedented amount of radioactivity was released to the biosphere, and a graphite fire was ignited, which burned for days. The radiation that was released spread through Eastern Europe (the world first learned of it through Swedish observations), bringing with it both official and unofficial protests that the Soviet Union had made no announcement of the radiation release until they were, in effect, caught. In fact, after a few days, the Soviets seemed to recognize that nuclear safety is a matter of international concern, and became quite open in their search for cooperation. They invited officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit the area and to fly over the plant, and agreed, in the end, to make a complete disclosure of the details of the accident at a special meeting of IAEA in Vienna, August 25 to 29, 1986. In preparation for that meeting they distributed a lengthy (400 pages) report on the event. This paper reviews this report

  19. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  20. The Chernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response.

    Baverstock, Keith; Williams, Dillwyn

    2007-01-01

    Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident the WHO and the International Atomic Energy Authority issued a reassuring statement about the consequences. Our objectives in this study were to evaluate the health impact of the Chernobyl accident, assess the international response to the accident, and consider how to improve responses to future accidents. So far, radiation to the thyroid from radioisotopes of iodine has caused several thousand cases of thyroid cancer but very few deaths; exposed children were most susceptible. The focus on thyroid cancer has diverted attention from possible nonthyroid effects. The international response to the accident was inadequate and uncoordinated, and has been unjustifiably reassuring. Accurate assessment in future health effects is not currently possible in the light of dose uncertainties, current debates over radiation actions, and the lessons from the late consequences of atomic bomb exposure. Because of the uncertainties from and the consequences of the accident, it is essential that investigations of its effects should be broadened and supported for the long term. The United Nations should initiate an independent review of the actions and assignments of the agencies concerned, with recommendations for dealing with future international-scale accidents. These should involve independent scientists and ensure cooperation rather than rivalry. PMID:17680126

  1. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment.

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe, in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  2. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe - in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  3. Fukushima, one year later. Initial analyses of the accident and its consequences

    The earthquake of magnitude 9 of March 11, 2011 with an epicenter 80 km east of the Japanese island of Honshu, and the subsequent tsunami, severely affected the region of Tohoku, with major consequences for its population and infrastructure. Devastating the site of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, these natural events were the cause of the core meltdowns of three nuclear reactors and the loss of cooling of several spent fuel pools. Explosions also occurred in reactor buildings 1 through 4 due to hydrogen produced during fuel degradation. Very significant radioactive releases into the environment took place. The accident was classified level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). This report provides an assessment and perspective on the information gathered by IRSN during the first twelve months following the disaster in an effort to understand the condition of the installations, evaluate the releases and analyze and evaluate the consequences of the accident on workers and the impact on the population and the environment. On the basis of available information, the report provides an initial analysis of the chain of events. It should be noted that a year after the accident, the full sequence of events is still not understood. Operating experience feedback from the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the United States, in which reactor core damage was not confirmed until 1986, suggests that it may be several years before a detailed scenario can be constructed of the accident that led to radioactive releases. It will require access to the damaged installations. The situation at the site remains dangerous (reactor pressure vessels and containments are not leak-tight, diffuse releases, etc.). If it has significantly improved as a result of the significant resources deployed by the Tokyo Electro Power Company (TEPCO) to regain control of the installations, this effort must continue over the long term to begin evacuation of fuel from pools (in two

  4. Review, analysis and report on the radiological consequences resulting from accidents and incidents involving radioactive materials during transport in the period 1975-1986 by and within member states of the european communities

    Radioactive materials are routinely transported throughout the European Communities, by all modes of transport. These shipments occur in accordance with comprehensive regulations and the vast majority of these shipments are made without incident. Occasionally however accidents and other incidents have occurred at various stages of transport operations and the purpose of this study was to examine the available information on events that occurred within the Communities during the years 1975 to 1986. The information was gathered from Member States' Competent Authorities and other organisations, using a questionnaire. Most of the detailed information came from the two countries carrying out the study, the UK and France. The information gathered covered many different types of event involving a wide range of materials: it is concluded that under-reporting is a major source of uncertainty in the results. Therefore, it is emphasised that care should be used in comparisons between the results for different types of transport operations, since accidents and incidents involving certain types of transport are more fully reported than others. Consequently, the authors stress the need for improved reporting and recording procedures. No evidence was found of any major health consequences resulting from the accidents and incidents studied. However, there were instances of high doses having been received by workers, mainly as a result of inadequate preparation of packages prior to despatch. These events point to the need to maintain high standards of quality assurance at all stages of transport operations

  5. Small chances - great consequences or the consequences of a large-scale accident in a nuclear power plant

    This report is a sequel to the previous Boerderijcahier (no. 7502) which discussed long-term effects of soil contamination in case of a nuclear power plant accident. In this report the short-term health effects are discussed. Models describing the local consequences of a severe accident are developed, taking into account the possible weather conditions (meteorological model), the evacuation possibilities and the inhabitability of certain areas. In each case long-term and short-term effects are discussed. The safety studies by various departments of the Netherlands' government and the Rasmussen report are commented on

  6. A review of the Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS): Capabilities and applications

    MACCS was developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsorship to estimate the offsite consequences of potential severe accidents at nuclear power plants (NPPs). MACCS was publicly released in 1990. MACCS was developed to support the NRC's probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) efforts. PSA techniques can provide a measure of the risk of reactor operation. PSAs are generally divided into three levels. Level one efforts identify potential plant damage states that lead to core damage and the associated probabilities, level two models damage progression and containment strength for establishing fission-product release categories, and level three efforts evaluate potential off-site consequences of radiological releases and the probabilities associated with the consequences. MACCS was designed as a tool for level three PSA analysis. MACCS performs probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from NPPs. MACCS includes models for atmospheric dispersion and transport, wet and dry deposition, the probabilistic treatment of meteorology, environmental transfer, countermeasure strategies, dosimetry, health effects, and economic impacts. The computer systems MACCS is designed to run on are the 386/486 PC, VAX/VMS, E3M RISC S/6000, Sun SPARC, and Cray UNICOS. This paper provides an overview of MACCS, reviews some of the applications of MACCS, international collaborations which have involved MACCS, current developmental efforts, and future directions

  7. The consequences of the Kyshtym accident for Flora and Fauna

    Flora and fauna irradiated in areas radioactively contaminated by the Kyshtym accident accumulated the bulk of their dose more or less in the first year, with the irradiation being at its most intensive in autumn 1957 and the winter of 1957/58, when plants and many animal species were in the physically dormant state. During the ''acute'' phase the maximum doses absorbed (at a contamination level of 4 000 Ci 90 Sr/km2) were as follows (in krad): mouse-type rodents and fish 4, birch bud meristems 20, pine bud meristems 40, pine needles 80, dormant leaf buds and gramineae seeds on the soil surface 160. The main radiobiological effects appeared in the spring of 1958 and were observed for several years after; subsequently, in the presence of chronic irradiation at a low dose rate, predominantly genetic effects were observed, conifers being the most radiosensitive among the plants. Changes in the structure of herbaceous communities occurred at doses over 20 krad (1 500 Ci 90Sr/km2). In subsequent years we observed changes in the structure and numbers of fish and mouse-type rodent populations. The radioactive contamination caused an increase in the rate of mutational processes in plant and animal populations. However, for populations as a whole the increased frequency observed for most mutations (chromosome aberrations, chemical mutations) did not play a major role, since they were speedily eliminated by natural selection. No deformities of a genetic nature were found on the contaminated territory. In the 30 years since the accident the biological characteristics of the contaminated area have not differed (except for coniferous forests) from those of the surrounding regions. Natural ecosystems are very radioresistant, and extremely high doses are needed to damage them seriously and irreversibly. (author)

  8. Radiological consequences of a propagated fire accident in a radiochemical separations facility

    A radiological consequence analysis of a propagated fire accident in a Savannah River Site (SRS) radiochemical separations facility has been performed. This analysis supports the safety documentation for the SRS plutonium reprocessing facility. Included are the evaluation of the doses resulting from the exposure to the radioactive airborne release for co-located facility worker and the off-site individual receptors. Atmospheric dispersion calculations using qualified five-year (1987-1991) meteorological data were performed with the computer code AXAIR89Q, a validated computer code for radiological dose calculations. Radioactive source term estimates and assumptions of material composition and isotope distribution were based on existing permissible storage levels as defined in approved safety documentation. The fire accident scenario assumes that the fire propagates in the entire facility on four structural levels. Approximately 97% of the radioactive materials released occurs from levels three and four of the facility, which are not included in the ventilation pathway to the sand trap filter. Radiological analysis results indicate that the doses to co-located worker and off-site individual receptors are equal to 4.4 rem and 3.3 rem, respectively. Accident mitigators that were identified include provision for filtration capacity from levels three and four of the facility, and relocation of stored radioactive materials. Provision for filtration capacity would reduce the source term from an unfiltered activity of 53.6 Ci to a filtered activity of 2.0 Ci. Relocation of stored radioactive materials would result in a source term reduction from 53.6 Ci to 20 Ci. Limitations exist, however, that may make implementation of the identified mitigators difficult or prohibitive

  9. About some regularities consequences of accidents at NPP

    In the article are considered the principal reasons of differences in observed and calculation frequencies of emergency events in complex technological systems, including NPP. Analyzed simplification inherent in the probabilistic model of work of the reactor. The results of application of power-law probability distribution are presented for the estimation of consequences of catastrophes in complex and dangerous technologies

  10. Experience with psychological consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident

    The paper describes the image of radiation menance. Basic differences in image parameters are revealed for some population groups. The psychological levels of the image are regarded as psychological phenomena. Some specific psychological consequences of mental regression are outlined in the paper