Getting into hot water Problematizing hot water service demand: The case of Old Cairo
This dissertation analyzes hot water demand and service infrastructure in two neighboring but culturally distinct communities of the urban poor in the inner-city area of central Cairo. The communities are the Historic Islamic Cairo neighborhood of Darb Al Ahmar at the foot of Al-Azhar park, and the Zurayib neighborhood of Manshiyat Nasser where the Coptic Zabaleen Recyclers live. The study focuses on the demand side of the hot water issue and involves consideration of built-environment infrastructures providing piped water, electricity, bottled gas, sewage, and the support structures (wiring and plumbing) for consumer durables (appliances such as hot water heaters, stoves, refrigerators, air conditioners) as well as water pumps and water storage tanks. The study asks the questions "How do poor communities in Cairo value hot water" and "How do cost, infrastructure and cultural preferences affect which attributes of hot water service are most highly preferred?". To answer these questions household surveys based primarily on the World Bank LSMS modules were administered by professional survey teams from Darb Al Ahmar's Aga Khan Trust for Culture and the Zabaleen's local NGO "Spirit of Youth" in their adjacent conununities in and surrounding historic Cairo. In total 463 valid surveys were collected, (231 from Darb Al Ahmar, 232 from the Zabaleen). The surveys included a contingent valuation question to explore Willingness to Pay for improved hot water service; the surveys queried household assets as proxies for income. The dissertation's findings reveal that one quarter of the residents of Darb Al Ahmar and two-thirds of the residents of Manshiyet Nasser's Zabaleen lack conventional water heating service. Instead they employ various types of stoves and self-built contraptions to heat water, usually incurring considerable risk and opportunity costs. However the thesis explores the notion that this is rational "satisficing" behavior; despite the shortcomings of such self-help strategies, the greater flexibility they provide may lead to superior long-term outcomes in a time of uncertain and rising energy and commodities prices and an increasing availability of new, less expensive, increasingly modular, and more efficient technologies that are easier for individual households to install and use, especially if the State or non-governmental institutions can provide implementation support. The descriptive statistics and the multivariate models obtained through the analysis of the data gathered in the surveys show that while purchase price and running costs for dedicated water heating systems are considerations for families desiring hot water, the infrastructural demands of modern appliances vis a vis a consumer's given built environment and the historical/cultural legacy of the consumer's past hot water choices and practices are often more important determinants of the kind of water heating used and desired today. Our study shows, for example, that while higher income is associated with owning a water heater in a simple model with few explanatory variables (Model 3) it's significance disappears when controlling for Ethnicity and infrastructural elements (Model 1). This might suggest that while within communities there is a point at which making more money implies a shift to consumer "modernity", overall the availability of more money in these neighborhoods as a whole doesn't guarantee that the utility promised by modern appliances will be realized. A similar point can be made about formal education levels, which appear insignificant in our models. Policy that aimed merely at sending more kids to school would not address the great deficiencies that many Egyptian schools are noted for. There is no guarantee that merely expanding Egypt's "universal education" policy to include children who have fallen through the cracks would help increase consumer awareness or consumer choice. On the other hand both water availability and presence of hot water pipes, as proxies for assets in the built environment, are significant in model 2. With this information about how infrastructure affects consumer choice, and predictors from our models of the average family's willingness to spend discretional income on a new heater, we might suggest that policy aiming at improving the water delivery infrastructure might make a difference. With the right policies enforced, what are now "cold-water flats" could safely, inexpensively and reliably accommodate technologies that provide differentiated water temperatures in separate pipelines. This analysis of consumer choice regarding hot water as a combined water and energy and technological utility contributes to our understanding of redevelopment policy in three ways. First, it provides insights into what is really being valued in terms of amenities at the household level and the self-help strategies people employ to achieve desired end utility. Second, it identifies non-traditional issues, often overlooked in neighborhood improvement scenarios that may help make slum renovation programs more successful. Third, the study reveals the complexities involved in obtaining standard amenities, such as hot water, for low-income groups. Paradoxically, government subsidies for water and energy intended to help the poor may have hurt them by locking them into patterns of behavior which, coupled with architectural decisions sanctioned by the government, severely limit the ability of the poor to take advantage of new opportunities or avoid being constrained by changing conditions at a time of rising energy and resource costs. The findings from this dissertation show that we can not make the assumption that consumers in these areas will move increasingly toward conventional water heating appliances under current conditions; in fact many families have had such units and abandoned them for economic, utility and safety reasons. A rethink is necessary of how government, the private sector, NGOs and individual households can work together to guarantee that safe, reliable and economical hot water is provided to every family.