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Sample records for 5-year risk score

  1. Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

    Annika Steffen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG for the next 5 years (derivation sample. Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample. RESULTS: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65 in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58 in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

  2. Genetic risk score of 46 type 2 diabetes risk variants associates with changes in plasma glucose and estimates of pancreatic β-cell function over 5 years of follow-up

    Andersson, Ehm A; Allin, Kristine Højgaard; Sandholt, Camilla H; Borglykke, Anders; Lau, Cathrine J; Ribel-Madsen, Rasmus; Sparsø, Thomas; Justesen, Johanne Marie; Harder, Marie Neergaard; Jørgensen, Marit Eika; Jørgensen, Torben; Hansen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf

    2013-01-01

    More than 40 genetic risk variants for type 2 diabetes have been validated. We aimed to test if a genetic risk score associates with the incidence of type 2 diabetes and with 5-year changes in glycemic traits and if the effects were modulated by changes in BMI and lifestyle.The Inter99 study...... population was genotyped for 46 variants and a genetic risk score was constructed. During a median follow-up of 11 years 327 of 5,850 individuals developed diabetes. Physical examinations and oral glucose tolerance tests were performed at baseline and after 5 years (n=3,727).The risk of incident type 2...... diabetes was increased with a hazard ratio of 1.06 [95%CI 1.03-1.08] per risk allele. While the population in general improved their glucose regulation during the 5-year follow-up period, each additional allele in the genetic risk score was associated with a relative increase in fasting, 30-min and 120-min...

  3. Evaluation of 5-Year Trends in Knee Society Scores Stratified by Comorbidities: A Prospective, Longitudinal Study.

    Jauregui, Julio J; Issa, Kimona; Cherian, Jeffrey J; Harwin, Steven F; Given, Kristin; Mont, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    Total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) are reliable procedures for treating end-stage knee osteoarthritis with excellent long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study was to longitudinally evaluate temporal trends of Knee Society Scores (KSS) after TKA and to identify potential demographic and comorbid factors that affect these outcomes. This prospective study evaluated 281 patients (108 men and 173 women) with a mean age of 66 years (range, 39-80 years) who underwent primary TKA (minimum follow-up 5 years). During each follow-up visit, KS objective, function, and total scores were evaluated. The effects of different demographics and comorbidities on outcomes were further analyzed using multivariate regression analysis. Following TKA, peak mean KSS were observed at 1-year follow-up (mean, 92 points), after which there was no significant difference in scores at 5 years compared with 1-year follow-up (mean, 92 points). KS function scores were observed to be unchanged from preoperative levels (mean, 53 points) and at 6 weeks (mean, 56 points). These were significantly higher at 3 months (mean, 78 points) and reached a maximum mean peak at 1 year (mean, 85 points). KS objective scores increased earlier than function scores. The demographic variables and comorbidities that demonstrated a significantly negative impact in KS function scores were increased age, female gender, higher body mass index, and several medical comorbidities including immunological and neurological disease, and neoplasm. Race was the only variable that significantly decreased the KS objective scores. KSS after TKA follow temporal trends with scores initially unchanged from preoperative levels for the objective component, but the scores increased for the functional component. All components demonstrated higher levels compared with preoperative scores by 3 months and peaked at 1-year follow-up. At 5-year follow-up, all mean KSS were unchanged relative to peak scores seen at 1 year. Various patient

  4. Modifiable diarrhoea risk factors in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

    Mansour, A M; Mohammady, H El; Shabrawi, M El; Shabaan, S Y; Zekri, M Abou; Nassar, M; Salem, M E; Mostafa, M; Riddle, M S; Klena, J D; Messih, I A Abdel; Levin, S; Young, S Y N

    2013-12-01

    By conducting a case-control study in two university hospitals, we explored the association between modifiable risk behaviours and diarrhoea. Children aged bacterial pathogens using standard techniques and tested by ELISA to detect rotavirus and Cryptosporidium spp. Four hundred cases and controls were enrolled between 2007 and 2009. The strongest independent risk factors for diarrhoea were: presence of another household member with diarrhoea [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4.9, 95% CI 2.8-8.4] in the week preceding the survey, introduction to a new kind of food (mOR 3, 95% CI 1.7-5.4), and the child being cared for outside home (mOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2). While these risk factors are not identifiable, in some age groups more easily modifiable risk factors were identified including: having no soap for handwashing (mOR 6.3, 95% CI 1.2-33.9) for children aged 7-12 months, and pacifier use (mOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.5) in children aged 0-6 months. In total, the findings of this study suggest that community-based interventions to improve practices related to sanitation and hygiene, handwashing and food could be utilized to reduce the burden of diarrhoea in Egyptian children aged <5 years. PMID:23433452

  5. Timing and risk factors for clinical fractures among postmenopausal women: a 5-year prospective study

    Rinkens Paula ELM

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many risk factors for fractures have been documented, including low bone-mineral density (BMD and a history of fractures. However, little is known about the short-term absolute risk (AR of fractures and the timing of clinical fractures. Therefore, we assessed the risk and timing of incident clinical fractures, expressed as 5-year AR, in postmenopausal women. Methods In total, 10 general practice centres participated in this population-based prospective study. Five years after a baseline assessment, which included clinical risk factor evaluation and BMD measurement, 759 postmenopausal women aged between 50 and 80 years, were re-examined, including undergoing an evaluation of clinical fractures after menopause. Risk factors for incident fractures at baseline that were significant in univariate analyses were included in a multivariate Cox survival regression analysis. The significant determinants were used to construct algorithms. Results In the total group, 12.5% (95% confidence interval (CI 10.1–14.9 of the women experienced a new clinical fracture. A previous clinical fracture after menopause and a low BMD (T-score Conclusion In postmenopausal women, clinical fractures cluster in time. One in two women with a recent clinical fracture had a new clinical fracture within 5 years, regardless of BMD. The 5-year AR for a first clinical fracture was much lower and depended on BMD.

  6. Fasting Increases Risk for Onset of Binge Eating and Bulimic Pathology: A 5-Year Prospective Study

    Stice, Eric; Davis, Kendra; Miller, Nicole P.; Marti, C. Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Although adolescent girls with elevated dietary restraint scores are at increased risk for future binge eating and bulimic pathology, they do not eat less than those with lower restraint scores. The fact that only a small proportion of individuals with elevated dietary restraint scores develop bulimic pathology suggests that some extreme but rare form of dietary restriction may increase risk for this disturbance. We tested the hypothesis that fasting (going without eating for 24-hours for wei...

  7. Cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...... associated with decreased mortality. No association was found for hypertension or intermittent claudication. In the final Cox proportional hazard model predictors of 5-year mortality were AF (hazard ratio, HR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.7), diabetes (HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.6), smoking (HR 1.2; 95% CI 1.0-1.4), and...... previous stroke (HR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.7), after adjustment for age, gender, and stroke severity. CONCLUSIONS: AF, diabetes, smoking, and previous stroke significantly affect long-term survival. Although smoking and daily alcohol consumption appeared to be associated with improved survival in the univariate...

  8. Diarrhea Prevalence, Care, and Risk Factors Among Poor Children Under 5 Years of Age in Mesoamerica.

    Colombara, Danny V; Hernández, Bernardo; McNellan, Claire R; Desai, Sima S; Gagnier, Marielle C; Haakenstad, Annie; Johanns, Casey; Palmisano, Erin B; Ríos-Zertuche, Diego; Schaefer, Alexandra; Zúñiga-Brenes, Paola; Zyznieuski, Nicholas; Iriarte, Emma; Mokdad, Ali H

    2016-03-01

    Care practices and risk factors for diarrhea among impoverished communities across Mesoamerica are unknown. Using Salud Mesoamérica Initiative baseline data, collected 2011-2013, we assessed the prevalence of diarrhea, adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines, and potential diarrhea correlates in poor and indigenous communities across Mesoamerica. This study surveyed 14,500 children under 5 years of age in poor areas of El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico (Chiapas State), Nicaragua, and Panama. We compared diarrhea prevalence and treatment modalities using χ(2) tests and used multivariable Poisson regression models to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for potential correlates of diarrhea. The 2-week point prevalence of diarrhea was 13% overall, with significant differences between countries (P < 0.05). Approximately one-third of diarrheal children were given oral rehydration solution and less than 3% were given zinc. Approximately 18% were given much less to drink than usual or nothing to drink at all. Antimotility medication was given to 17% of diarrheal children, while antibiotics were inappropriately given to 36%. In a multivariable regression model, compared with children 0-5 months, those 6-23 months had a 49% increased risk for diarrhea (aRR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.15, 1.95). Our results call for programs to examine and remedy low adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines. PMID:26787152

  9. Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

    Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI ris...

  10. Water fluoridation, tooth decay in 5 year olds, and social deprivation measured by the Jarman score: analysis of data from British dental surveys.

    Jones, C M; Taylor, G O; Whittle, J. G.; Evans, D.; Trotter, D. P.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of water fluoridation, both artificial and natural, on dental decay, after socioeconomic deprivation was controlled for. DESIGN: Ecological study based on results from the NHS dental surveys in 5 year olds in 1991-2 and 1993-4 and Jarman underprivileged area scores from the 1991 census. SETTING: Electoral wards in three areas: Hartlepool (naturally fluoridated), Newcastle and North Tyneside (fluoridated), and Salford and Trafford (non-fluoridated). SUBJECTS: 5...

  11. Characterization and scoring of skin changes in severe acute malnutrition in children between 6 months and 5 years of age

    Heilskov, S; Vestergaard, C; Iriso, Esther Babirekere;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Severe acute malnutrition is a life-threatening condition. It can be associated with severe skin changes, first properly described by Williams in 1933. The aetiology of these skin changes is still unknown and their character has never been systematically described in dermatological...... objective was to identify the skin changes characteristic of children with severe acute malnutrition and to develop a clinical score that describes the morphology and severity in dermatological terms. We also investigated if any of the different skin changes were connected to prognosis. MATERIALS AND...... METHODS: At Mulago Hospital, Mwanamugimu (Department of Paediatrics and Child Health), Uganda, 120 children were included over a period of six months and observed when treated for severe acute malnutrition. Skin changes were registered through clinical examination and photo documentation and associated to...

  12. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  13. Insulin Resistance and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in 3-to 5-Year-Old Overweight or Obese Children

    Bocca, Gianni; Ongering, Eva C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Sauer, Pieter J. J.

    2013-01-01

    Background/Aims: The increasing rate of overweight and obesity is alarming. The complications of overweight and obesity at a young age are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular risk factors among overweight and obese children aged 3-5 years.

  14. Population-based 5-year follow-up study in Taiwan of dementia and risk of stroke.

    Mu-En Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study estimates the risk of stroke within 5 years of newly diagnosed dementia among elderly persons aged 65 and above. We examined the relationship between antipsychotic usage and development of stroke in patients with dementia. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide 5-year population-based study using data retrieved from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005 in Taiwan. The study cohort comprised 2243 patients with dementia aged ≥65 years who had at least one inpatient service claim or at least 2 ambulatory care claims, whereas the comparison cohort consisted of 6714 randomly selected subjects (3 for every dementia patient and were matched with the study group according to sex, age, and index year. We further classified dementia patients into 2 groups based on their history of antipsychotic usage. A total of 1450 patients were classified into the antipsychotic usage group and the remaining 793 patients were classified into the non-antipsychotic usage group. Cox proportional-hazards regressions were performed to compute the 5-year stroke-free survival rates after adjusting for potentially confounding factors. RESULTS: The dementia patients have a 2-fold greater risk of developing stroke within 5 years of diagnosis compared to non-dementia age- and sex-matched subjects, after adjusting for other risk factors (95% confidence interval (CI = 2.58-3.08; P<.001. Antipsychotic usage among patients with dementia increases risk of stroke 1.17-fold compared to patients without antipsychotic treatment (95% CI = 1.01-1.40; P<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia may be an independent risk factor for stroke, and the use of antipsychotics may further increase the risk of stroke in dementia patients.

  15. Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse Score

    Rizzuto, Ivana; Stavraka, Chara; Chatterjee, Jayanta; Borley, Jane; Hopkins, Thomas Glass; Gabra, Hani; Ghaem-Maghami, Sadaf; Huson, Les; Blagden, Sarah P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic index that predicts risk of relapse in women who have completed first-line treatment for ovarian cancer (OC). Methods A database of OC cases from 2000 to 2010 was interrogated for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, grade and histological subtype of cancer, preoperative and posttreatment CA-125 level, presence or absence of residual disease after cytoreductive surgery and on postchemotherapy computed tomography scan, and time to progression and death. The strongest predictors of relapse were included into an algorithm, the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse (ROVAR) score. Results Three hundred fifty-four cases of OC were analyzed to generate the ROVAR score. Factors selected were preoperative serum CA-125, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and grade of cancer, and presence of residual disease at posttreatment computed tomography scan. In the validation data set, the ROVAR score had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% and 61%, respectively. The concordance index for the validation data set was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.96). The score allows patient stratification into low (0.67) probability of relapse. Conclusions The ROVAR score stratifies patients according to their risk of relapse following first-line treatment for OC. This can broadly facilitate the appropriate tailoring of posttreatment care and support. PMID:25647256

  16. Jumper's knee paradox—jumping ability is a risk factor for developing jumper's knee: A 5-year prospective study

    Visnes, Håvard; Aandahl, Hans Åge; Bahr, Roald

    2012-01-01

    Background The ‘jumper's knee paradox’, where symptomatic athletes appear to perform better in a counter movement jump (CMJ) compared to asymptomatic controls in previous case–control studies is not fully understood. Aim The aim was to examine the relationship between jumping ability and change of jumping ability as potential risk factors for developing jumper's knee. Methods A 5-year prospective cohort study among elite volleyball players, aged 16–18. Jump tests were done on a portab...

  17. Prenatal Methamphetamine Exposure, Home Environment, and Primary Caregiver Risk Factors Predict Child Behavioral Problems at 5 Years

    Twomey, Jean; LaGasse, Linda; Derauf, Chris; Newman, Elana; Shah, Rizwan; Smith, Lynne; Arria, Amelia; Huestis, Marilyn; DellaGrotta, Sheri; Roberts, Mary; Dansereau, Lynne; Neal, Charles; Lester, Barry

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the prospective association between prenatal methamphetamine (MA) exposure and child behavioral problems at 5 years while also examining the home environment at 30 months and several primary caregiver (PC) risk factors. Participants were 97 MA-exposed and 117 comparison children and their PCs enrolled in the Infant Development, Environment and Lifestyle Study. Hypotheses were that child behaviors would be adversely impacted by (a) prenatal MA exposure, (b) home environ...

  18. Midlife Ankylosing Spondylitis Increases the Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in Males 5 Years Later

    Hung, Yao-Min; Chang, Wei-Pin; Wei, James Cheng-Chung; Chou, Pesus; Wang, Paul Yung-Pou

    2016-01-01

    Abstract There are limited studies describing the association between ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients over 40 years old. We aimed to focus on the incident AS patients in those aged 40 years or older and to investigate whether events of CVD occurred more than the general population. We conducted a nationwide cohort study between 2000 and 2005 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The risk of newly diagnosed CVD was compared between incident AS patients and matched age- and sex-matched subjects without AS. Events of CVDs were classified into 1 of 5 subcategories: hypertensive heart disease, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or “other” CVD according to the ICD-9-CM codes. Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated after adjusting for demographic and comorbid medical disorders. Multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards model. We compared 537 AS and 2685 non-AS patients and found that the cumulative incidence rate of CVD during follow-up period was higher in the AS cohort than the non-AS cohort. The crude HR of CVD for the AS group was 1.24 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.05–1.46; P = 0.01] and the adjusted HR was 1.20 with 95% CI 1.02 to 1.42 (P = 0.03). When stratified by age, AS cohort at age 60 to 69 years exhibited a significantly higher HR for all CVD than the general population cohort (adjusted HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.06–2.08, P the general population cohort with the adjusted HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.01–1.63, P < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference for females. Patients with AS, especially age 60 to 69 years male patients, had a higher risk of CVDs than non-AS controls. PMID:27149491

  19. Prevelence of latent tuberculosis and associated risk factors in children under 5 years of age in Karachi, Pakistan

    Mubashir Zafar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: As infected children represent a large proportion of the pool from which tuberculosis (TB cases will arise and its associated risk factors that influence TB infection are basic cause for burden of TB. Aim: This study was to determine the prevalence of latent TB and associated risk factors in children less than 5 year of age in Karachi, Pakistan. Setting and Design: Cross-sectional study and it was conducted in tertiary care hospital in Karachi. Materials and Methods: In this study, children who were living in contact with individuals who had proven smear-positive pulmonary TB cases were investigated. A tuberculin skin test (TST was performed on each child. TST sizes ≥5 and 10 mm, respectively, were considered positive. Statistical Analysis: A random effects logistic regression model, which takes into account the clustering of contacts within households, was used to assess the relationship between the tuberculin response of the contact and risk factors. Results are reported as unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess the overall significance of risk factors, tests for trend, and tests for interaction. Results: The distribution of TST responses followed a bimodal pattern, with 135 (35% children presenting a palpable induration. The risk of positive TST response in the child increased with the geographic proximity of the child to the individual with TB within the household and with the degree of activities shared with the individual with TB. Nutritional status and presence of a bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG scar were not independent risk factors for TST positivity in this population. On multivariate analysis, the effect of geographic proximity to the individual with TB, household size, and duration of cough in the index case persisted for TST responses ≥5 mm. Conclusions: Positive TST in a child reflects most probably TB infection rather than previous BCG

  20. Heart Transplant Survival Based on Recipient and Donor Risk Scoring: A UNOS Database Analysis.

    Trivedi, Jaimin R; Cheng, Allen; Ising, Mickey; Lenneman, Andrew; Birks, Emma; Slaughter, Mark S

    2016-01-01

    Unlike the lung allocation score, currently, there is no quantitative scoring system available for patients on heart transplant waiting list. By using United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data, we aim to generate a scoring system based on the recipient and donor risk factors to predict posttransplant survival. Available UNOS data were queried between 2005 and 2013 for heart transplant recipients aged ≥18 years to create separate cox-proportional hazard models for recipient and donor risk scoring. On the basis of risk scores, recipients were divided into five groups and donors into three groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival. Total 17,131 patients had heart transplant within specified time period. Major factors within high-risk groups were body mass index > 30 kg/m (46%), mean pulmonary artery pressure >30 mmHg (65%), creatinine > 1.5 mg% (63%), bilirubin > 1.5 mg% (54%), noncontinuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (45%) for recipients and gender mismatch (81%) and ischemia time >4 hours (88%) for donors. Survival in recipient groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 at 5 years was 81, 80, 77, 74, and 62%, respectively, and in donor groups 1, 2, and 3 at 5 years was 79, 77, and 70%, respectively (p transplanted with high-risk donor has acceptable survival at 5 years, but high-risk recipient combined with a high-risk donor has marginal results. Using an objective scoring system could help get the best results when utilizing high-risk donors. PMID:26771395

  1. A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study.

    Susan Shin-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL, and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA, to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART is routinely provided.A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL. Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was calculated.Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49-15.90, P = 0.009. A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52-24.40, P = 0.01. Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6% from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587-0.798 for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776-0.808 and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary

  2. Genetic Risk Score Predicts Late-Life Cognitive Impairment

    Mariegold E. Wollam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A family history of Alzheimer’s disease is a significant risk factor for its onset, but the genetic risk associated with possessing multiple risk alleles is still poorly understood. Methods. In a sample of 95 older adults (Mean age = 75.1, 64.2% female, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the accumulation of risk alleles in BDNF, COMT, and APOE. A neuropsychological evaluation and consensus determined cognitive status (44 nonimpaired, 51 impaired. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether the genetic risk score predicted cognitive impairment above and beyond that associated with each gene. Results. An increased genetic risk score was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 3.824, P = .013 when including the individual gene polymorphisms as covariates in the model. Discussion. A risk score combining multiple genetic influences may be more useful in predicting late-life cognitive impairment than individual polymorphisms.

  3. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity

    Power, R.A.; Steinberg, S.; Bjornsdottir, G.; Rietveld, C.A.; Abdellaoui, A.; Nivard, M.M.; Johannesson, M.; Galesloot, T.E.; Hottenga, J.J.; Willemsen, G.; Cesarini, D.; Benjamin, D.J.; Magnusson, P.K.; Ullen, F.; Tiemeier, H.; Hofman, A.; Rooij, F.J. van; Walters, G.B.; Sigurdsson, E.; Thorgeirsson, T.E.; Ingason, A.; Helgason, A.; Kong, A.; Kiemeney, B.; Koellinger, P.; Boomsma, D.I.; Gudbjartsson, D.; Stefansson, H.; Stefansson, K.

    2015-01-01

    We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 x 10(-6) and 3.8 x 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectiv

  4. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-12-01

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

  5. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  6. The Study of Risk Factors of Malnutrition in Children under 5 Years Attending to Health Centers in Zahedan City

    F. Montazerifar

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition is one of the most important factors of prevalence of diseases and mortality in children. On the other hand , identification of causative agents of malnutrition and prevention and control of disease is very crucial . This study was done for evaluation of risk factors in malnourished children under 5 years old in Zahedan. For this purpose , 1050 children attending to health centers of Zahedan who had malnutrition selected randomly in a descriptive cross sectional study and a questionnaire with demographic characteristics of mothers and children completed by interviewing. Then , collected data was analyzed by SPSS software and descriptive statistics. Results of the study showed that malnutrition in girls was more prevalent than boys (60.1% and 39.9% respectively. Also it was cleared that malnutrition in 6–24 months children was more prevalent than other age groups. In majority of cases interval of consecutive pregnancies was less than 24 month(35.2% and number of family members was more than 5 persons (47%. In 54.3% of children the age of beginning food supplement was after 6 month. Most of the parents were uneducated (38.5% fathers and 52.0% mothers. Although 97.1% of mothers were house-wives but 51.9% of them were house-wives and uneducated . In 69% , weight gain of mothers during pregnancy was less than 7 Kg total studied cases 58.4% of mothers had attended to health centers during pregnancy but in 65.9% , the number of attending during this period was less than 4 times. From above results it was concluded that malnutrition in children is more due to defect in preparation procedure and using food supplement and the time of beginning food supplement , illiteracy and low education of mother and lack of family planning. So, training mothers for increasing their knowledge making more efforts for changing culture view point of people for family planning , keeping enough proper interval in pregnancies , equal oportunity for boys and

  7. RISKS MANAGEMENT. A PROPENSITY SCORE APPLICATION

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2008-01-01

    Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  8. RISKS MANAGEMENT. A PROPENSITY SCORE APPLICATION

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  9. [Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: comparison among scores].

    Del Colle, Sara; Rabbia, Franco; Mulatero, Paolo; Veglio, Franco

    2004-09-01

    At present, a correct and thorough risk evaluation represents the best prognostic and therapeutic approach for hypertensive patients. Recent European and American guidelines recommend a global stratification of the cardiovascular risk of hypertensive patients, based on the evaluation of risk factors, organ damage, and the clinical conditions associated with hypertension. A similar approach uses numerical risk scores that transform the percentage risk, calculated from large populations, into absolute values. These scores have been calculated by different research groups and scientific organizations with the aim of better defining the real risk of a given population over time. Many of these risk scores have been conceived by American and European scientific groups on the basis of the epidemiology of different risk variables in the respective populations; in general, north American hypertensives are exposed to a higher cardiovascular risk compared to Europeans and some European countries have a higher risk than others. The present review underlines the pivotal role of a correct risk evaluation of hypertension as reported in the guidelines. We briefly analyze the principal studies on risk scores: we compare the advantages and disadvantages of the different scores, as well as the similarities and differences, in order to demonstrate not only their utility, but also the possible equivalence of the different parameters considered. PMID:15568607

  10. Estimating Operational Risk for Hedge Funds: The ?-Score

    Stephen Brown; William Goetzmann; Bing Liang; Christopher Schwarz

    2008-01-01

    Using a complete set of the SEC filing information on hedge funds (Form ADV) and the TASS data, we develop a quantitative model called the ?-Score to measure hedge fund operational risk. The ?-Score is related to conflict of interest issues, concentrated ownership, and reduced leverage in the ADV data. With a statistical methodology, we further relate the ?-Score to readily available information such as fund performance, volatility, size, age, and fee structures. Finally, we demonstrate that ...

  11. Stroke Risk Predictor Scoring Systems in Atrial Fibrillation

    Tze-Fan Chao, M.D; Shih-Ann Chen, M.D.

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available An effective risk stratification which could help us identify high-risk patients who should take oral anticoagulants (OACs is the key step for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF. Several scoring systems were available to estimate the risk of stroke in AF, including CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2 and ATRIA scores, which were constituted of different clinical risk factors. Recently, several new OACs (NOACs were demonstrated to be at least as effective as warfarin in stroke prevention and were much safer regarding the risk of intra-cranial hemorrhage. In the era of NOACs, the roles of scoring schemes have shifted to identify patinets with a truly low-risk of thromboembolic events, in whom OACs were not recommended. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is powerful in selecting “truly low-risk” patients who are not necessary to receive anticoagulation therapies. Whether the new-emerging scoring systems, R2CHADS2 and ATRIA scores, could further improve the stroke prediction in AF deserves a further study.

  12. Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

    Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score (12). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

  13. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  14. Assessment of the effect of iris colour and having children on 5-year risk of death after diagnosis of uveal melanoma: a follow-up study

    Schmidt-Pokrzywniak, Andrea; Kalbitz, Sven; Kuss, Oliver; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Bornfeld, Norbert; Stang, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Background To examine the all-cause mortality and uveal melanoma specific mortality among newly diagnosed uveal melanoma patients after five years. Furthermore, we assess of the effect of iris colour and having children on 5-year risk of death after diagnosis of uveal melanoma. Therefore, we assess the performance of an individual prediction model of survival from uveal melanoma. Methods A cohort of 459 patients aged 45 to 79 years with newly diagnosed uveal melanoma was recruited between 200...

  15. Cardio-metabolic risk in 5-year-old children prenatally exposed to maternal psychosocial stress: the ABCD study

    Stronks Karien

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent evidence, both animal and human, suggests that modifiable factors during fetal and infant development predispose for cardiovascular disease in adult life and that they may become possible future targets for prevention. One of these factors is maternal psychosocial stress, but so far, few prospective studies have been able to investigate the longer-term effects of stress in detail, i.e. effects in childhood. Therefore, our general aim is to study whether prenatal maternal psychosocial stress is associated with an adverse cardio-metabolic risk profile in the child at age five. Methods/design Data are available from the Amsterdam Born Children and their Development (ABCD study, a prospective birth cohort in the Netherlands. Between 2003-2004, 8,266 pregnant women filled out a questionnaire including instruments to determine anxiety (STAI, pregnancy related anxiety (PRAQ, depressive symptoms (CES-D, parenting stress (PDH scale and work stress (Job Content Questionnaire. Outcome measures in the offspring (age 5-7 are currently collected. These include lipid profile, blood glucose, insulin sensitivity, body composition (body mass index, waist circumference and bioelectrical impedance analysis, autonomic nervous system activity (parasympathetic and sympathetic measures and blood pressure. Potential mediators are maternal serum cortisol, gestational age and birth weight for gestational age (intrauterine growth restriction. Possible gender differences in programming are also studied. Discussion Main strengths of the proposed study are the longitudinal measurements during three important periods (pregnancy, infancy and childhood, the extensive measurement of maternal psychosocial stress with validated questionnaires and the thorough measurement of the children's cardio-metabolic profile. The availability of several confounding factors will give us the opportunity to quantify the independent contribution of maternal stress during

  16. Predictive risk factors for chronic regional and multisite musculoskeletal pain: a 5-year prospective study in a working population.

    Herin, Fabrice; Vézina, Michel; Thaon, Isabelle; Soulat, Jean-Marc; Paris, Christophe

    2014-05-01

    The role of psychosocial and physical factors in the development of musculoskeletal pain (MSP) has now been clearly demonstrated. However, it is unclear whether these factors contribute to specific regional MSP or to multisite pain. The main goal of this study was to assess the impact of work-related factors according to gender on the development of regional and multisite MSP. A total of 12,591 subjects (65% men and 35% women) who were born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953 and were participating in a French longitudinal prospective epidemiological survey (ESTEV) in 1990 to 1995 were eligible. Personal factors and work exposure were assessed by self-administered questionnaires. Statistical associations between chronic MSP (regional body site or multisite), personal factors, and occupational factors were analyzed using logistic regression modeling. The incidence of regional MSP and multisite pain in 1995 were, respectively, 17% and 25.6%. For women, highly repetitive movements predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and vibrations predicted arm and low back pain; and effort with tools predicted arm pain. For men, forceful effort and vibrations predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and forceful effort predicted lower limb and low back pain; and forceful effort and effort with tools predicted arm pain. Physical constraints (ie, forceful effort or vibrations) were associated with multisite pain in both genders. Only for women, psychological factors were risk factors predictive of upper limb pain and in 3 or 4 painful anatomical sites. These results support the hypothesis that some physical and psychological work-related factors are predictive of regional or multisite MSP but differ according to gender. Gender differences and risk factors for work-related musculoskeletal pain should be also taken into account to more effectively target preventive measures. PMID:24561229

  17. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  18. Risk for High Depressive Symptoms in Diagnosed and Previously Undetected Diabetes: 5-Year Follow-Up Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study

    Andrea Icks; Bernd Albers; Burkhard Haastert; Sonali Pechlivanis; Noreen Pundt; Uta Slomiany; Raimund Erbel; Karl-Heinz Jöckel; Johannes Kruse; Bernd Kulzer; Bettina Nowotny; Christian Herder; Guido Giani; Susanne Moebus

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the risk for the development of high depressive symptoms in study participants with diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes mellitus compared to those without diabetes in a prospective population-based cohort study in Germany. METHODS: We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of high depressive symptoms in participants without high depressive symptoms at baseline (n = 3,633, 51.4% men, mean age (SD) 59.1 (7.6) years, 7.0% diagno...

  19. Prediction of coronary heart disease : a comparison between the Copenhagen risk score and the Framingham risk score applied to a Dutch population

    de Visser, CL; Bilo, HJG; Thomsen, TF; Groenier, KH; Meyboom-De Jong, B

    2003-01-01

    Objectives. To compare the estimation of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk by the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the Copenhagen risk score (CRS) using Dutch population data. Design. Comparison of CHD risk estimates from FRS and CRS. CHD risk-estimations for each separate risk factor. Setting. Urk,

  20. A new scoring system to stratify risk in unstable angina

    Salzberg Simón

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We performed this study to develop a new scoring system to stratify different levels of risk in patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of unstable angina (UA, which is a complex syndrome that encompasses different outcomes. Many prognostic variables have been described but few efforts have been made to group them in order to enhance their individual predictive power. Methods In a first phase, 473 patients were prospectively analyzed to determine which factors were significantly associated with the in-hospital occurrence of refractory ischemia, acute myocardial infarction (AMI or death. A risk score ranging from 0 to 10 points was developed using a multivariate analysis. In a second phase, such score was validated in a new sample of 242 patients and it was finally applied to the entire population (n = 715. Results ST-segment deviation on the electrocardiogram, age ≥ 70 years, previous bypass surgery and troponin T ≥ 0.1 ng/mL were found as independent prognostic variables. A clear distinction was shown among categories of low, intermediate and high risk, defined according to the risk score. The incidence of the triple end-point was 6 %, 19.2 % and 44.7 % respectively, and the figures for AMI or death were 2 %, 11.4 % and 27.6 % respectively (p Conclusions This new scoring system is simple and easy to achieve. It allows a very good stratification of risk in patients having a clinical diagnosis of UA. They may be divided in three categories, which could be of help in the decision-making process.

  1. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Polovina Snežana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  2. Framingham risk score with cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease.

    Szu-Chia Chen

    Full Text Available The Framingham Risk Score (FRS was developed to predict coronary heart disease in various populations, and it tended to under-estimate the risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD patients. Our objectives were to determine whether FRS was associated with cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the role of new risk markers and echocardiographic parameters when they were added to a FRS model. This study enrolled 439 CKD patients. The FRS is used to identify individuals categorically as "low" (4.7 cm, left ventricular hypertrophy or left ventricular ejection fraction<50% to the FRS model significantly improves the predictive values for cardiovascular events. In CKD patients, "high" risk categorized by FRS predicts cardiovascular events. Novel biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters provide additional predictive values for cardiovascular events. Future study is needed to assess whether risk assessment enhanced by using these biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters might contribute to more effective prediction and better care for patients.

  3. Coordinating perioperative care for the 'high risk' general surgical patient using risk prediction scoring.

    Hafiz, Shaziz; Lees, Nicholas Peter

    2016-01-01

    Identifying 'high risk' (> 5% mortality score) emergency general surgical patients early, allows appropriate perioperative care to be allocated by securing critical care beds and ensuring the presence of senior surgeons and senior anesthetists intraoperatively. Scoring systems can be used to predict perioperative risk and coordinate resources perioperatively. Currently it is unclear which estimate of risk correlates with current resource deployment. A retrospective study was undertaken assessing the relationship between deployment of perioperative resources: senior surgeon, senior anesthetist and critical care bed. The study concluded that almost all high risk patients with high POSSUM mortality and morbidity scores had a consultant senior surgeon present intraoperatively. Critically unwell patients with higher operative severity and perioperative morbidity scores received higher care (HDU/ICU) beds postoperatively, ensuring that they received appropriate care if their condition deteriorated. Therefore POSSUM scoring should be used perioperatively in emergency cases to coordinate appropriate perioperative care for high risk general surgical patients. PMID:26901929

  4. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

  5. Comparison of Calipers for Matching on the Disease Risk Score.

    Connolly, John G; Gagne, Joshua J

    2016-05-15

    Previous studies have compared calipers for propensity score (PS) matching, but none have considered calipers for matching on the disease risk score (DRS). We used Medicare claims data to perform 3 cohort studies of medication initiators: a study of raloxifene versus alendronate in 1-year nonvertebral fracture risk, a study of cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors versus nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory medications in 6-month gastrointestinal bleeding, and a study of simvastatin + ezetimibe versus simvastatin alone in 6-month cardiovascular outcomes. The study periods for each cohort were 1998 through 2005, 1999 through 2002, and 2004 through 2005, respectively. In each cohort, we calculated 1) a DRS, 2) a prognostic PS which included the DRS as the independent variable in a PS model, and 3) the PS for each patient. We then nearest-neighbor matched on each score in a variable ratio and a fixed ratio within 8 calipers based on the standard deviation of the logit and the natural score scale. When variable ratio matching on the DRS, a caliper of 0.05 on the natural scale performed poorly when the outcome was rare. The prognostic PS did not appear to offer any consistent practical benefits over matching on the DRS directly. In general, logit-based calipers or calipers smaller than 0.05 on the natural scale performed well when DRS matching in all examples. PMID:27037270

  6. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy. PMID:16479901

  7. RISK FACTORS FOR RECURRENCE OF FEBRILE SEIZURES IN CHILDREN AGED BETWEEN 6 MONTHS TO 5 YEARS OF AGE ADMITTED TO DR. PUNJABRAO DESHMUKH MEDICAL COLLEGE, AMRAVATI

    Manish

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available : Febrile seizures (FS occur in 2% to 5% of all children and are most common convulsive event in children younger than 60 month. Recurrence of FS ranges from 21–43% in different studies and are associated with various risk factors like age of onset of 1st episode of FS less than 1 year, duration and grade of fever, parental consanguinity, family history of FS and epilepsy, male gender and complex FS as initial seizure. AIMS AND OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk factors and their association for recurrences of febrile seizures in children aged between 6 months to 5 years of age. MATERIALS & METHODS: The study design was prospective observational study in which 63 children (6 months to 5 years presenting with the first episode of FS to Dr. Punjabrao Deshmukh Medical College, Amravati between 1st November 2013 to 31st October 2014 were enrolled in the study. These subjects were followed up for a period of 1 year from the date of 1st episode of FS. RESULTS: In present study 46 out of 63 subjects had recurrence of FS. Male: female ratio in the recurrence group was 0.76:1. Family history of FS and epilepsy was present in 34.9% and 12.6% respectively. Total 67.34% subjects with simple FS and 92.85% with complex FS had recurrence. 69.69% subjects had FS within 24 hours of onset of fever. Parental consanguinity was found in 14 (22.2% subjects with p value of 0.013. No association between the number of risk factors and recurrence was found. 22 (34.9% out of total 63 subjects were on intermittent FS prophylaxis during the febrile illness and 15 subjects still had recurrence of FS and hence no significant association between recurrence of FS and intermittent prophylaxis for FS was seen. CONCLUSION: Parental consanguinity and age less than one year for 1st episode of FS were the only significant risk factors indentified for the recurrence of FS. Age of onset of 1st episode of FS less than 1 year, duration of fever, grade of

  8. Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality after Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A 5-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study

    Holter, Jan C.; Ueland, Thor; Jenum, Pål A.; Müller, Fredrik; Brunborg, Cathrine; Frøland, Stig S.; Aukrust, Pål; Husebye, Einar; Heggelund, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Background Contributors to long-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remain unclear, with little attention paid to pneumonia etiology. We examined long-term survival, causes of death, and risk factors for long-term mortality in adult patients who had been hospitalized for CAP, with emphasis on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological characteristics. Methods Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients admitted in 2008–2011 to a general hospital with CAP were prospectively recruited and followed up. Patients who died during hospital stay were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Extensive microbiological work-up was performed to establish the etiology of CAP in 63% of patients. Mortality data were obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality. Results Of 259 hospital survivors of CAP (median age 66 years), 79 (30.5%) died over a median of 1,804 days (range 1–2,520 days). Cumulative 5-year survival rate was 72.9% (95% CI 67.4–78.4%). Standardized mortality ratio was 2.90 for men and 2.05 for women. The main causes of death were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), vascular diseases, and malignancy. Independent risk factors for death were the following (hazard ratio, 95% CI): age (1.83 per decade, 1.47–2.28), cardiovascular disease (2.63, 1.61–4.32), COPD (2.09, 1.27–3.45), immunocompromization (1.98, 1.17–3.37), and low serum albumin level at admission (0.75 per 5g/L higher, 0.58–0.96), whereas active smoking was protective (0.32, 0.14–0.74); active smokers were younger than non-smokers (P < 0.001). Microbial etiology did not predict mortality. Conclusions Results largely confirm substantial comorbidity-related 5-year mortality after hospitalization for CAP and the impact of several well-known risk factors for death, and extend

  9. Risk factors for death among children less than 5 years old hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya, 2005-2007: a cohort study.

    Ciara E O'Reilly

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Data on risk factors for mortality are limited. We conducted hospital-based surveillance to characterize the etiology of diarrhea and identify risk factors for death among children hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enrolled all children <5 years old, hospitalized with diarrhea (≥3 loose stools in 24 hours at two district hospitals in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. Clinical and demographic information was collected. Stool specimens were tested for bacterial and viral pathogens. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify risk factors for death. From May 23, 2005 to May 22, 2007, 1,146 children <5 years old were enrolled; 107 (9% children died during hospitalization. Nontyphoidal Salmonella were identified in 10% (118, Campylobacter in 5% (57, and Shigella in 4% (42 of 1,137 stool samples; rotavirus was detected in 19% (196 of 1,021 stool samples. Among stools from children who died, nontyphoidal Salmonella were detected in 22%, Shigella in 11%, rotavirus in 9%, Campylobacter in 5%, and S. Typhi in <1%. In multivariable analysis, infants who died were more likely to have nontyphoidal Salmonella (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6·8; 95% CI 3·1-14·9, and children <5 years to have Shigella (aOR = 5·5; 95% CI 2·2-14·0 identified than children who survived. Children who died were less likely to be infected with rotavirus (OR = 0·4; 95% CI 0·2-0·8. Further risk factors for death included being malnourished (aOR = 4·2; 95% CI 2·1-8·7; having oral thrush on physical exam (aOR = 2·3; 95% CI 1·4-3·8; having previously sought care at a hospital for the illness (aOR = 2·2; 95% CI 1·2-3·8; and being dehydrated as diagnosed at discharge/death (aOR = 2·5; 95% CI 1·5-4·1. A clinical diagnosis of malaria, and malaria parasites seen on

  10. Risk for high depressive symptoms in diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes: 5-year follow-up results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

    Andrea Icks

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the risk for the development of high depressive symptoms in study participants with diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes mellitus compared to those without diabetes in a prospective population-based cohort study in Germany. METHODS: We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of high depressive symptoms in participants without high depressive symptoms at baseline (n = 3,633, 51.4% men, mean age (SD 59.1 (7.6 years, 7.0% diagnosed diabetes, 5.3% previously undetected diabetes from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. Diabetes was assessed by self-report, medication, and blood glucose. High depressive symptoms were assessed using CES-D. We calculated odds ratios and their corresponding 95% confidence interval, using multiple logistic regression analyses. RESULT: Cumulative 5-year incidences (95% CI of high depressive symptoms in participants with diagnosed, undetected, and without diabetes were 7.1 (4.2-10.9, 4.1 (1.8-8.0, and 6.5 (5.6-7.4, respectively. The age-sex-adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms was 1.22 (0.74-2.03 in participants with diagnosed compared to those without diabetes, and 1.00 (0.59-1.68 after adjustment for BMI, physical activity, education, stroke, and myocardial infarction. The age-sex adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms in participants with previously undetected diabetes compared to those without diabetes was 0.72; 0.35-1.48; and fully adjusted 0.62; 0.30-1.30. CONCLUSION: We found no significant associations, maybe due to low power. However, our results are in line with a recent meta-analysis suggesting that risk of developing high depressive symptoms in patients with diagnosed diabetes may be moderately higher than in those without diabetes, and that comorbidity may explain in part this association. In participants with previously undetected diabetes, this first longitudinal study indicates that the risk is not

  11. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27197622

  12. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T.R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C.K.; Chen, Ronald Y.L.; Chen, Eric Y.H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F.C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O’Callaghan, Eadbhard; O’Dushlaine, Colm; O’Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; Van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H.M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St. Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Kraft, Peter; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Liu, Jianjun; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Tamimi, Rulla; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.

    2015-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. PMID:26430803

  13. Fukushima, 5 years after

    This publication proposes an overview of the situation in Fukushima (in the plant and in its region), 5 years after the accident. As far as the plant is concerned, several issues are addressed: the withdrawal of fuel from decay pools, the management of contaminated waters, and the situation of reactors 1, 2 and 3. The radiological impact for operators is discussed in terms of radioactivity level, of occurrence of leukaemia, and of storage of radioactive wastes. The next part comments the slow return of populations and the recovery of agriculture, notably with respect to decontamination advances, and to waste management. Current perspectives for the Japanese nuclear industry are then addressed: creation of a new and stronger safety authority, and situation of the various other reactors (some are planned to be restarted, some will be dismantled, and new reactors are still being built). The last part addresses the rehabilitation of areas devastated by the tsunami, with temporary housing, urban planning comprising possibilities for the population to quickly find a shelter, and works on the coast for a better protection against tsunamis

  14. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter;

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...... between 50% and 57%. The regional and the national risk scores performed equally well in the three national samples. CONCLUSIONS: Two regional risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia applicable to the Middle East and North Africa region were identified. The regional risk scores...

  15. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  16. Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

    Felix F. Widjaja

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

  17. SCORE underestimates cardiovascular risk (CVR of HIV+ patients

    R Ramírez

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The new European Guidelines of Dislipidemia Management of the European Societies of Cardiology and Arteriosclerosis consider HIV+ as patients at high risk of developing cardiovascular events and deaths. The objective of the study was to evaluate cardiovascular events and deaths in a series of HIV+ patients. Observational, cross-sectional study, including a cohort of HIV+ and HIV− patients from 2008. CVR was calculated using the SCORE-CVR chart. Variation on lipid profile and incidence of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular death or death related to any cause were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 for MAC. 154 HIV+ and 155 HIV− patients were included. Mean age: 44.8±9.5 vs 55.2±14.3 y and 69.5% vs 49% males respectively (p<0.01. Mean time since HIV+ diagnosis was 11±6.2 y. Mean BMI and systolic blood pressure were lower in HIV+ (25.1±6.7 kg/m2 vs 28.7±5.1 kg/m2, (p<0.01 and 119.6±19.4 vs 124.7±14.7 mmHg, (p=0.044; respectively. A lower proportion of hypertense, diabetic and obese patients was observed in HIV+ (25.5% vs 6.5%; 20.6% vs 3.9% and 36.8% vs 12.3% but a larger proportion of smokers (68.8% vs 29.7% was observed (p<0.01 in all cases. Mean cholesterol and LDLc were lower in HIV+ (191.2±41.4 vs 218.5±44.6 mg/dl and 109.5±33.9 vs 134.6±37.7 mg/dl; p<0.01; respectively but with a lower mean HDLc and higher TG (50.3±19 mg/dl vs 55.2±14.9 mg/dl; p=0.013 and 156.7±85.7 vs 135.8±66.2 mg/dl; p=0.017; respectively. There was no significant difference in mean CVR-SCORE (3.5±3.6% vs 4.4±3.8%; p=0.091. With this SCORE, 5.2±5.3 and 6.7±5.8 cardiovascular events or deaths should be expected in HIV+ and HIV− respectively at 10 y. Four years later cholesterol, LDLc, HDLc, TG in HIV+ and HIV− patients did not vary compared with those obtained 4 y before. 5 events and 1 death were seen at 4 y follow-up in HIV+, and in HIV− patients. The incidence of events in HIV+ patients is similar to the expected according

  18. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    David Corcoran

    2015-09-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  19. Mortality Risk Prediction by Application of PRISM Scoring System in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    Mahdi Mohammadi; Afshin Fayyazi; Mohsen Raeisi; Noor Mohammad Noori; Ali Khajeh; Ghasem Miri-Aliabad

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) score is one of the scores used by many pediatricians for prediction of the mortality risk in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Herein, evaluate the efficacy of PRISM score in prediction of mortality rate in PICU.Methods: In this cohort study, 221 children admitted during an 18-month period to PICU, were enrolled. PRISM score and mortality risk were calculated. Follow up was noted as death or discharge. Results were analyzed by Kaplan...

  20. Risk of hypertension in Yozgat Province, Central Anatolia: application of Framingham Hypertension Prediction Risk Score.

    Kilic, M; Ede, H; Kilic, A I

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the risk of hypertension in 1106 Caucasian individuals aged 20-69 years in Yozgat Province, using the Framingham Hypertension Risk Prediction Score (FHRPS). According to FHRPS, average risk of developing hypertension over 4 years was 6.2%. The participants were classified into low- (10%) risk groups. The percentage of participants that fell into these groups was 59.4%, 19.8% and 20.8% respectively. The proportion of participants in the high-risk group was similar to the 4-year incidence of hypertension (21.3%) in the Turkish population. Regression analysis showed that high salt consumption and low educational level significantly increased the risk of hypertension. Economic level, fat consumption, life satisfaction, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption were not correlated with risk of hypertension. This study shows that FHRPS can also be used for predicting risk of hypertension in Central Anatolia. PMID:27432406

  1. Follicular lymphoma patients with a high FLIPI score and a high tumor burden: A risk stratification model

    Anđelić Boško

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The widely accepted Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI divides patients into three risk groups based on the score of adverse prognostic factors. The estimated 5-year survival in patients with a high FLIPI score is around 50%. The aim of this study was to analyse the prognostic value of clinical and laboratory parameters that are not included in the FLIPI and the New Prognostic Index for Follicular Lymphoma developed by the International Follicular Lymphoma Prognostic Factor Project (FLIPI2 indices, in follicular lymphoma (FL patients with a high FLIPI score and high tumor burden. Methods. The retrospective analysis included 57 newly diagnosed patients with FL, a high FLIPI score and a high tumor burden. All the patients were diagnosed and treated between April 2000 and June 2007 at the Clinic for Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade. Results. The patients with a histological grade > 1, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR ± 45 mm/h and hypoalbuminemia had a significantly worse overall survival (p = 0.015; p = 0.001; p = 0.008, respectively, while there was a tendency toward worse overall survival in the patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG > 1 (p = 0.075. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified a histological grade > 1, ESR ± 45 mm/h and hypoalbuminemia as independent risk factors for a poor outcome. Based on a cumulative score of unfavourable prognostic factors, patients who had 0 or 1 unfavourable factors had a significantly better 5-year overall survival compared to patients with 2 or 3 risk factors (75% vs 24.1%, p = 0.000. Conclusion. The obtained results suggest that from the examined prognostic parameters histological grade > 1, ESR ± 45 mm/h and hypoalbuminemia can contribute in defining patients who need more aggressive initial treatment approach, if two or three of these parameters are present on presentation.

  2. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G;

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  3. Weak Prediction Power of the Framingham Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease in Nonagenarians

    Josef Yayan

    2014-01-01

    Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is caused by an acute myocardial infarction and is still feared as a life-threatening heart disease worldwide. In order to identify patients at high risk for CAD, previous studies have proposed various risk assessment scores for the prevention of CAD. The most commonly used risk assessment score for CAD worldwide is the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). The FRS is used for middle-aged people; hence, its appropriateness has not been demonstrated to predict t...

  4. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan;

    2015-01-01

    , diabetes, and total cholesterol, and allowed the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease to vary between cohorts or countries. We developed risk equations for fatal cardiovascular disease and for fatal plus non-fatal cardiovascular disease. We validated the risk equations internally and also using...... regions (China, Czech Republic, Denmark, England, Iran, Japan, Malawi, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and USA). FINDINGS: The risk score discriminated well in internal and external validations, with C statistics generally 70% or more. At any age and risk factor level, the estimated 10 year fatal....... Conversely, the proportion of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was largest in China and Mexico. In China, 33% of men and 28% of women had a 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease of 10% or more, whereas in Mexico, the prevalence of this high risk was 16% for men and 11% for women...

  5. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn’s disease in Slovenian population

    Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn’s disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (GRS) based on the number of risk alleles using weighted additive model. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by area under ROC curve (AUC). For risk evaluation, we divided individuals according to positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) of a test, with LR > 5 for high risk group and LR 5.54) showed significantly increased odds of developing CD (OR = 26.65, 95%CI: 11.25-63.15) compared to the individuals with the lowest risk (GRS < 4.57) which is a considerably greater risk captured than in one SNP with the highest effect size (OR = 3.24). When more than 33 SNPs were included in GRS, discriminatory ability was not improved significantly; AUC of all 74 SNPs was 0.76. CONCLUSION: The authors proved the possibility of building accurate genetic risk score based on 33 risk variants on Slovenian CD patients which may serve as a screening tool in the targeted population. PMID:27076762

  6. Impact of type of procedure and surgeon on EuroSCORE operative risk validation

    Fernando A. Atik; da Cunha, Claudio Ribeiro

    2014-01-01

    Objective EuroSCORE has been used in cardiac surgery operative risk assessment, despite important variables were not included. The objective of this study was to validate EuroSCORE on mortality prediction in a Brazilian cardiovascular surgery center, defining the influence of type of procedure and surgical team. Methods Between January 2006 and June 2011, 2320 consecutive adult patients were studied. According to additive EuroSCORE, patients were divided into low risk (score12). The relation ...

  7. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder among Danish Soldiers 2.5 Years after Military Deployment in Afghanistan: The Role of Personality Traits as Predisposing Risk Factors

    Janne Hellerup Nielsen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD implicates research regarding factors besides the preceding traumatic event. This study investigated the influence of predisposing personality traits on development of PTSD in a group of Danish Soldiers deployed to Afghanistan (N = 445. Using a prospective design data was collected using questionnaires including the NEO Five Factor Inventory and the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist. The results showed a PTSD-prevalence of 9.2% in the total sample 2.5 years after homecoming. Using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, and Spearman¡'s rho significant relationships were identified between pre-existing personality traits of neuroticism and agreeableness with development of PTSD symptoms 2.5 years after homecoming, however, a number of additional cofounders were identified.

  8. Breast-Conserving Treatment With Partial or Whole Breast Irradiation for Low-Risk Invasive Breast Carcinoma-5-Year Results of a Randomized Trial

    Purpose: To report the 5-year results of a randomized study comparing the survival and cosmetic results of breast-conserving treatment with partial breast irradiation (PBI) or conventional whole breast irradiation (WBI). Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2004, 258 selected patients with T1 N0-1mi, Grade 1-2, nonlobular breast cancer without presence of extensive intraductal component and resected with negative margins were randomized after breast-conserving surgery to receive 50 Gy/25 fractions WBI (n = 130) or PBI (n = 128). The latter consisted of either 7 x 5.2 Gy high-dose-rate (HDR) multicatheter brachytherapy (BT; n = 88) or 50 Gy/25 fractions electron beam (EB) irradiation (n = 40). Results: At a median follow-up of 66 months, the 5-year actuarial rate of local recurrence was 4.7% and 3.4% in the PBI and WBI arms, respectively (p = 0.50). There was no significant difference in the 5-year probability of overall survival (94.6% vs. 91.8%), cancer-specific survival (98.3% vs. 96.0%), and disease-free survival (88.3% vs. 90.3%). The rate of excellent to good cosmetic result was 77.6% in the PBI group (81.2% after HDR BT; 70.0% after EB) and 62.9% in the control group (52.2% after telecobalt; 65.6% after 6-9-MV photons; pWBI/PBI = 0.009). Conclusions: Partial breast irradiation using interstitial HDR implants or EB to deliver radiation to the tumor bed alone for a selected group of early-stage breast cancer patients produces 5-year results similar to those achieved with conventional WBI. Significantly better cosmetic outcome can be achieved with carefully designed HDR multicatheter implants compared with the outcome after WBI

  9. Growth decelerations among under-5-year-old children in Kasongo (Zaire). II. Relationship with subsequent risk of dying, and operational consequences

    1986-01-01

    The relationship between growth decelerations (in terms of various anthropometric parameters) and death occurring during the subsequent 100 days was studied among under-5-year-old children in Kasongo, Zaire. A significant association, more pronounced for large decelerations, was demonstrated for some anthropometric parameters. The observations provide support for the hypothesis that the frequency of stress due to malnutrition and infection party explains the high mortality. Although the assoc...

  10. Risk Factors for Death among Children Less than 5 Years Old Hospitalized with Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya, 2005–2007: A Cohort Study

    O'Reilly, Ciara E.; Jaron, Peter; Ochieng, Benjamin; Nyaguara, Amek; Tate, Jacqueline E; Parsons, Michele B.; Bopp, Cheryl A.; Williams, Kara A.; Vinjé, Jan; Blanton, Elizabeth; Wannemuehler, Kathleen A.; Vulule, John; Kayla F. Laserson; Breiman, Robert F.; Feikin, Daniel R.

    2012-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Diarrhea—passing three or more loose or liquid stools per day—kills about 1.5 million young children every year, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. Globally, it is the second leading cause of death in under-5-year olds, causing nearly one in five child deaths. Diarrhea, which can lead to life-threatening dehydration, is a common symptom of gastrointestinal infections. The pathogens (viruses, bacteria, and parasites) that cause diarrhea spread through conta...

  11. Evaluation of risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus in medical students using Indian diabetes risk score

    Pranita Ashok

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to World Health Organisation, type 2 diabetes mellitus [type 2 D. M] has recently escalated in all age groups and is now being identified in younger age groups. This underscores the need for mass awareness and screening programs to detect diabetes at an early stage. For this purpose we have used a simplified Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS for prediction of diabetes in undergraduate medical students. Objectives: To screen and to identify 1st MBBS students at risk for developing type 2 D. M using IDRS. Materials and Methods : 261 undergraduates (1st MBBS students were scored using IDRS which includes age, family history of diabetes, exercise status, and waist circumference. After scoring them, we assessed random capillary blood glucose (RCBG in students with high IDRS score. Students with RCBG ≥ 113 mg/dl are followed for definitive tests for diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes. Results and Conclusion: We have assessed 261 students till now. It was observed that 5%, 55%, and 38% students in High, Moderate, and Low risk group, respectively, for developing type 2 D. M. The mean abdominal obesity in high risk students was 101.95 ± 5.76 as compared to 79.17 ± 11.08 in moderate and low risk students (P 113 mg/dl in which one student found to have prediabetic. Conclusion: This underscores the need for further investigations to detect diabetes at an early stage and to overcome the disease burden of diabetes in future. Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity have to be the future plan of action which can be suggested in the form of regular exercise and diet planning for the students as part of an integrated approach.

  12. Coronary artery calcium scores and cardiovascular risk factors in 31,545 asymptomatic Korean adults.

    Jang, Shin Yi; Kim, Sung Mok; Sung, Jidong; Cho, Soo Jin; Choe, Yeon Hyeon

    2016-06-01

    The aims of this study were to identify the distribution of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) by age group and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and to evaluate the association between CV risk factors and CACS classification in asymptomatic adults. The study included 31,545 asymptomatic Koreans, over 20 years of age with no previous history of malignancy, proven coronary artery disease, or stroke, who underwent CACS computed tomography at the Health Promotion Center, Samsung Medical Center, between January 2005 and June 2013. Mean (±SD) age was 53.8 (±8.5) years overall, 56.1 (±8.3) in men, and 53.3 (±8.5) in women. They were classified into five groups based on their resting CACS: none (CAC = 0), minimal (0  CAC). Older age groups exhibited higher CACS values. The proportion of CACS classification in our study was 55.5 % with no CACS, 9.5 % with minimal CACS, 19.8 % with mild CACS, 10.8 % with moderate CACS, and 4.3 % with extensive CACS. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for CV risk factors to determine their association with CACS. When analyzed according to sex, in males, the adjusted OR for CACS increased with the presence of hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), obesity, chronic kidney disease, and smoking status. While, in females, the adjusted OR for CACS increased with the presence of HT, DM, and obesity. CV risk factors appear to be significantly associated with CACS in the Korean population. PMID:27119164

  13. Poor predictive ability of the risk chart SCORE in a Danish population

    Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Prescott, Eva;

    2013-01-01

    In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study was...... therefore to assess the predictive ability of the SCORE risk chart with regard to fatal cardiovascular risk according to the socio-demographic factors of age, sex, income and education in a Danish population....

  14. Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

    Shafizadeh, Tracy B; Moler, Edward J; Kolberg, Janice A; Nguyen, Uyen Thao; Hansen, Torben; Jørgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2011-01-01

    Background: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously...... developed diabetes risk score, PreDxH Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged...... 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was...

  15. MODALITY OF DETERMINING THE TOTAL SCORE OF RISKS IN INTERNAL AUDIT

    FRANCA DUMITRU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis materializes in: applying to the weightings of risk factors the level of risk assessment, on risk factors, based on the assessments made by auditors regarding: the functionality of internal control, the influence of quantitative and qualitative elements; determination of the total risk score, which represents a sum of weights between the appreciation level of each risk and the weightings of risk factors.

  16. Vertebral Fracture Risk (VFR) Score for Fracture Prediction in Postmenopausal Women

    Lillholm, M.; Ghosh, A.; Pettersen, P. C.; Bruijne, M. de; Dam, E. B.; Karsdal, M. A.; Christiansen, C.; Genant, H.K.; Nielsen, Mads

    Early prognosis of osteoporosis risk is not only important to individual patients but is also a key factor when screening for osteoporosis drug trial populations. We present an osteoporosis fracture risk score based on vertebral heights. The score separated individuals who sustained fractures (by...

  17. Impact of cardiac involvement on the risk of mortality among patients with systemic sclerosis: a 5-year follow-up of a single-center cohort.

    Költő, Gyöngyvér; Faludi, Réka; Aradi, Dániel; Bartos, Barbara; Kumánovics, Gábor; Minier, Tünde; Czirják, László; Komócsi, András

    2014-02-01

    Cardiac involvement is among the leading causes of mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Previously, we demonstrated in a single-center, cross-sectional study the frequent coexistence of different forms of cardiac involvement in systemic sclerosis including pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), coronary artery disease (CAD), and microvascular dysfunction (MVD). The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic significance of cardiac involvement. One hundred twenty patients with SSc were enrolled. All cases underwent a non-invasive cardiovascular protocol. In 30 patients with suspected cardiac involvement, right heart catheterization and intra-coronary pressure-wire-supplemented coronary angiography were performed. Clinical follow-up was 5 years. Patients with CAD at the baseline showed a trend for higher cardiovascular mortality while in patients with MVD this difference was significant (26.7 % versus 9.5 %, p = 0.077 and 30 % versus 10.1 %, p < 0.05, respectively). Cardiovascular mortality of PAH cases was higher but, however, did not reach statistical significance 21.4 % versus 10.4 %, p = 0.261. Cardiovascular event-free survival was significantly lower among patients with combinations of two or three disorders (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis of organ involvements and comorbidities showed that the diffuse cutaneous subset, the presence of kidney involvement, the velocity of the tricuspid regurgitation, as well as diabetes mellitus were independent predictors of overall mortality. MVD and CAD alone or in combination with PAH significantly affected the 5-year cardiovascular mortality. These findings highlight the prognostic importance of coronary disease in patients with SSc [ www.clinicaltrials.gov (Reg. Nr.: NCT00843102)]. PMID:23942767

  18. Modified Mediterranean diet score and cardiovascular risk in a North American working population.

    Justin Yang

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally active, non-Mediterranean cohort. METHODS: A cross-sectional study in a cohort of 780 career male firefighters, ages 18 years or older, from the United States Midwest. No dietary intervention was performed. A modified Mediterranean diet score (mMDS was developed for assessment of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern from a previously administered life-style questionnaire that examined pre-existing dietary habits. Clinical data from fire department medical examinations were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Obese subjects had significantly lower mMDS, and they reported greater fast/take-out food consumption (p<0.001 and intake of sweetened drinks during meals (p = 0.002. After multivariate adjustment, higher mMDS was inversely related to risk of weight gain over the past 5 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.84, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.01; as well as the presence of metabolic syndrome components (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.04. Higher HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.008 and lower LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.04 were observed in those with higher mMDS in linear regression after multivariate adjustment for age, BMI and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of young and active US adults, greater adherence to a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern had significant inverse associations with metabolic syndrome, LDL-cholesterol and reported weight gain, and was significantly and

  19. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

    Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke;

    2015-01-01

    of ECE changed to 61 %-74 % and 77 %-88 % for the readers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Multiparametric MRI with ECE risk-scoring is an accurate diagnostic technique in determining prostate cancer clinical tumour stage and ECE at final pathology. KEY POINTS: • Multiparametric MRI is an accurate...... diagnostic technique for preoperative prostate cancer staging • ECE risk scoring predicts extracapsular tumour extension at final pathology • ECE risk scoring shows an AUC of 0.86 on the ROC-curve • ECE risk scoring shows a moderate inter-reader agreement (K = 0.45) • Multiparametric MRI provides essential......OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-seven patients with clinically...

  20. A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

    Marta Stanzani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

  1. CORRELATION OF MRI GRADING OF BONE STRESS INJURIES WITH CLINICAL RISK FACTORS AND RETURN TO PLAY: A 5-YEAR PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN COLLEGIATE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETES

    Nattiv, A; Kennedy, G; Barrack, MT; Abdelkerim, A; Goolsby, MA; Arends, JC; Seeger, LL

    2013-01-01

    Background: Bone stress injuries are common in track and field athletes. Knowledge of risk factors and correlation of these to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading could be helpful in determining recovery time. Purpose: To examine the relationships between MRI grading of bone stress injuries with clinical risk factors and time to return to sport in collegiate track and field athletes. Study Design: Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: A total of 211 male and female col...

  2. Developmental milestones record - 5 years

    ... view (but may not understand them) Has improved math skills Questions others, including parents Strongly identifies with ... milestones for children - 5 years References Feigelman S. The preschool years. In: Kliegman RM, Behrman RE, Jenson HB, ...

  3. [Risk stratification in pre-hospital management of myocardial infarction with ST elevation: value of a risk score profile].

    Zeller, M; Ravisy, J; Beer, J C; Laurent, Y; Janin-Manificat, L; Cabrita, B; L'Huillier, I; Wolf, J E; Freysz, M; Cottin, Y

    2005-11-01

    The aims of this study were to evaluate new tools of risk stratification in an unselected population of myocardial infarction (MI), usable in a pre-hospital situation, and to compare the risk profile of these patients with those of other clinical trials or myocardial infarction registries. The risk scores of death at 30 days (TIMI score and TIMI risk index) based on data available in the context of coronary emergencies, were applied to the population base of the MI observatory of myocardial infarction in the Côte d'Or (RICO). The risk profile was expressed by the smoothed graph of frequency distribution of each score. The TIMI score applied to the RICO population had a high discriminating power (c = 0.80) for mortality whereas TIMI risk index was less powerful (c = 0.57). The risk profile of the RICO population was comparable to that of InTIME II, ASSENT 2 and the NRMI with reperfusion registry. The NRMI without reperfusion and the MAGIC studies had different profiles characterised by a shift in the graph towards high risk patients. The authors conclude that risk stratification scores, like the TIMI score, are valuable tools for early triage in the management of MI patients. The risk profiles allow comparative analysis of risk levels of populations notably with respect to other registries and also with respect to randomised clinical trials. PMID:16379110

  4. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo;

    2006-01-01

    by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause........ INTRODUCTION: International recommendations highlight the importance of absolute fracture risk in establishing intervention thresholds. The available estimates of long-term risk have been derived by combining relative risks from meta-analyses with U.S. normative BMD data and Swedish fracture incidence records...... neck T score and by 1.30 (95% CI, 1.06; 1.58) for each unit decrease in lumbar spine T score at baseline. Absolute fracture risk was higher than expected from the Kanis algorithm at all T score levels. The difference was greatest for participants in the higher range of T scores. At T = -1, the observed...

  5. Reciprocal influences between maternal parenting and child adjustment in a high-risk population: a 5-year cross-lagged analysis of bidirectional effects.

    Barbot, Baptiste; Crossman, Elizabeth; Hunter, Scott R; Grigorenko, Elena L; Luthar, Suniya S

    2014-09-01

    This study examines longitudinally the bidirectional influences between maternal parenting (behaviors and parenting stress) and mothers' perceptions of their children's adjustment, in a multivariate approach. Data was gathered from 361 low-income mothers (many with psychiatric diagnoses) reporting on their parenting behavior, parenting stress, and their child's adjustment, in a 2-wave longitudinal study over 5 years. Measurement models were developed to derive 4 broad parenting constructs (involvement, control, rejection, and stress) and 3 child adjustment constructs (internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and social competence). After measurement invariance of these constructs was confirmed across relevant groups and over time, both measurement models were integrated in a single crossed-lagged regression analysis of latent constructs. Multiple reciprocal influences were observed between parenting and perceived child adjustment over time: Externalizing and internalizing problems in children were predicted by baseline maternal parenting behaviors, and child social competence was found to reduce parental stress and increase parental involvement and appropriate monitoring. These findings on the motherhood experience are discussed in light of recent research efforts to understand mother-child bidirectional influences and their potential for practical applications. PMID:25089759

  6. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  7. Risk Factors and Scoring System for Predicting Bacterial Resistance to Cefepime as Used Empirically in Haematology Wards

    Hicham El Maaroufi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Bacterial resistance is of growing concern in haematology wards. As the inappropriate administration of empirical antibacterial may alter survival, we studied risk factors for resistance to our usual empirical first-line antibacterial therapy, cefepime. Methods. We retrospectively studied 103 first episodes of bacteraemia recorded in our haematology department over 2.5 years. Risk factors for cefepime-resistance were identified by multivariate logistic regression with backward selection (P<0.05. A scoring system for predicting cefepime-resistance was built on independent factor, with an internal validation by the bootstrap resampling technique. Results. 38 (37% episodes were due to Gram-negative bacteria. Fifty (49% were due to bacteria resistant to cefepime. Cefepime resistance was significantly associated with a decreased survival at day 30 (P<0.05. Three risk factors were independently associated with cefepime-resistance: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; ≥18 days since hospital admission; and receipt of any β-lactam in the last month. Patients with ≥2 of these risk factors had a probability of 86% (CI 95%, 25 to 100% to carry a cefepime-resistant strain. Conclusion. Using our scoring system should reduce the indication of very broad antibacterial regimens in the empirical, first-line treatment of febrile hematology patients in more than 80% of the cases.

  8. Correlation between Timi Risk Score and Clinical Outcome in Patients with Unstable Angina Pectoris

    Savovic Zorica

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given Taking that the TIMI score is a major predictor of MACE, this study aimed to determine the value of the TIMI risk score in predicting poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, recurrent pain in patients presenting with unstable angina pectoris in short-term observation. A total of 107 patients with APns were examined at the Clinical Centre Kragujevac and were included in the investigation. The TIMI score was determined on the first day of hospitalization. During hospitalization, the following factors were also observed: troponin, ECG evolution, further therapy (pharmacologic therapy and/or emergency PCI or CABG, age, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. The low-risk group (TIMI 0 - 2 included 30.8% of patients, whereas 47.6% of patients were in the intermediate-risk group (TIMI 3 - 4, and 21.5% of patients were in the high-risk group (TIMI 5 - 7. Good outcomes (without adverse event and poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, and recurring chest pain were dependent on the TIMI risk score. The increase in TIMI risk score per one unit increased the risk of a poor outcome by 54%. Troponin and TIMI risk score were positively correlated. Our results suggest that the TIMI risk score may be a reliable predictor of a poor outcome (MACE during the short-term observation of patients with APns. Moreover, patients identified as high-risk benefit from early invasive PCI, enoxaparin and Gp IIb/IIIa inhibitors. Th us, routine use of the TIMI risk score at admission may reduce the number of patients not recognized as high-risk.

  9. Assessing the risk: Scoring systems for outcome prediction in emergency laparotomies.

    Nag, Deb Sanjay

    2015-12-01

    Emergency laparotomy is the commonest emergency surgical procedure in most hospitals and includes over 400 diverse surgical procedures. Despite the evolution of medicine and surgical practices, the mortality in patients needing emergency laparotomy remains abnormally high. Although surgical risk assessment first started with the ASA Physical Status score in 1941, efforts to find an ideal scoring system that accurately estimates the risk of mortality, continues till today. While many scoring systems have been developed, no single scoring system has been validated across multiple centers and geographical locations. While some scoring systems can predict the risk merely based upon preoperative findings and parameters, some rely on intra-operative assessment and histopathology reports to accurately stratify the risk of mortality. Although most scoring systems can potentially be used to compare risk-adjusted mortality across hospitals and amongst surgeons, only those which are based on preoperative findings can be used for risk prognostication and identify high-risk patients before surgery for an aggressive treatment. The recognition of the fact, that in the absence of outcome data in these patients, it would be impossible to evaluate the impact of quality improvement initiatives on risk-adjusted mortality, hospital groups and surgical societies have got together and started to pool data and analyze it. Appropriate scoring systems for emergency laparotomies would help in risk prognostication, risk-adjusted audit and assess the impact of quality improvement initiative in patient care across hospitals. Large multi-centric studies across varied geographic locations and surgical practices need to assess and validate the ideal and most apt scoring system for emergency laparotomies. While APACHE-II and P-POSSUM continue to be the most commonly used scoring system in emergency laparotomies,studies need to compare them in their ability to predict mortality and explore if either

  10. DESIGN AND STUDY OF ONLINE FUZZY RISK SCORE ANALYZER FOR DIABETES MELLITUS

    SunithaKarnam Anantha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to determine the risks of various subjects to type 2 Diabetes and its dependence on the different subject records. A Fuzzy based system was designed to find the risk scores for diabetes based on risk score derived from Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES. The risk score that has been adapted into the system is referred to as Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS. The variables employed in it are age, gender, waist, exercise and history of diabetes. A database of subject records was collected from hundred random individuals from southern regions of India. A comparative study was performed on these records between the normal and fuzzified risk score based on IDRS. The program has been designed using Lab VIEW with Fuzzy System Designer being used for fuzzy rule execution. The details are transmitted online through web page to the physicians who can provide assistance in prevention of diabetes. The obtained risk scores of the subjects are used to improve the lifestyle and delay the onset of diabetes to the maximum possible. This system can be implemented in rural regions where experienced medical assistance may not be available. This system would form an ideal part of the current developments in medicine where physical physician presence is not required due to the buttress provided by advancements in computer technology. The aim of this study is to determine the risks of various subjects to type 2 Diabetes and its dependence on the different subject records. A Fuzzy based system was designed to find the risk scores for diabetes based on risk score derived from Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES. The risk score that has been adapted into the system is referred to as Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS. The variables employed in it are age, gender, waist, exercise and history of diabetes. A database of subject records was collected from hundred random individuals from southern regions of India. A comparative study

  11. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Haoyan Chen

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  12. Changes in lifestyle, biological risk factors and total homocysteine in relation to MTHFR C677T genotype: a 5-year follow-up study

    Husemoen, L L N; Linneberg, A; Fenger, M;

    2009-01-01

    , physical activity, smoking status, coffee, tea, total alcohol or wine consumption. An inverse relationship was observed between changes in tHcy and changes in the intake of beer in TT individuals but not in CC/CT individuals (P (interaction)=0.01). In addition, changes in tHcy were positively associated...... with changes in several biological risk factors, such as waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol (Pinteraction)=0.03). CONCLUSIONS...

  13. Risk Factors for Malnutrition among Children 5-years and Younger in the Akuapim-North District in the Eastern Region of Ghana

    Alex Kojo Anderson

    2010-01-01

    Malnutrition remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. The aim of thisstudy was to identify risk factors for malnutrition among preschool children in the Akwapim-North District inthe Eastern Region of Ghana. This was a cross-sectional study. Mothers who brought their children to the “WellBaby Check-up” clinics were invited to participate. Anthropometric measurements (weight and height/length)and blood hemoglobin were measured. Mothers also completed a questionnaire ...

  14. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS)

    Dominguez, Ligia J.; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Basterra-Gortari, Francisco Javier; Gea, Alfredo; Barbagallo, Mario; Martínez-González, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS), which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN (“Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra”) longitudinal study. Methods We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points) were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points). Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of T2DM. Results We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25–39 points) vs. low (11–24) category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40–60) vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019). Conclusions The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve

  15. Predicting Parkinson disease in the community using a nonmotor risk score.

    Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Koudstaal, Peter J; Stricker, Bruno H; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-07-01

    At present, there are no validated methods to identify persons who are at increased risk for Parkinson Disease (PD) from the general population. We investigated the clinical usefulness of a recently proposed non-motor risk score for PD (the PREDICT-PD risk score) in the population-based Rotterdam Study. At baseline (1990), we constructed a weighted risk score based on 10 early nonmotor features and risk factors in 6492 persons free of parkinsonism and dementia. We followed these persons for up to 20 years (median 16.1 years) for the onset of PD until 2011. We studied the association between the PREDICT-PD risk score and incident PD using competing risk regression models with adjustment for age and sex. In addition, we assessed whether the PREDICT-PD risk score improved discrimination (C-statistics) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement) of incident PD beyond age and sex. During follow-up, 110 persons were diagnosed with incident PD. The PREDICT-PD risk score was associated with incident PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95 % confidence interval [1.06; 1.59]) and yielded a small, non-significant improvement in overall discrimination (ΔC-statistic = 0.018[-0.005; 0.041]) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement = 0.172[-0.017; 0.360]) of incident PD. In conclusion, the PREDICT-PD risk score only slightly improves long-term prediction of PD in the community. PMID:26898908

  16. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    Tracy L. Schumacher

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile, high (≥95th, moderate (≥90th or threshold (<90th using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years. Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55], body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26], serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42] and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12] were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60], sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15] and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77] were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children.

  17. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

    Adam Csordas

    Full Text Available Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR. Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population.We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population.We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality.During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%. Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0-26.0, P 6.8 only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8-5.6, P = 0.13. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45-0.82 for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71-0.92, P = 0.01. In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1-31.3, P <0.01 and improved the model's net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28-1.59. These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort.Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis.

  18. Building a Patient-Specific Risk Score with a Large Database of Discharge Summary Reports.

    Qu, Zhi; Zhao, Lue Ping; Ma, Xiemin; Zhan, Siyan

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND There is increasing interest in clinical research with electronic medical data, but it often faces the challenges of heterogeneity between hospitals. Our objective was to develop a single numerical score for characterizing such heterogeneity via computing inpatient mortality in treating acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients based on diagnostic information recorded in the database of Discharge Summary Reports (DSR). MATERIAL AND METHODS Using 4 216 135 DSRs of 49 tertiary hospitals from 2006 to 2010 in Beijing, more than 200 secondary diagnoses were identified to develop a risk score for AMI (n=50 531). This risk score was independently validated with 21 571 DSRs from 65 tertiary hospitals in 2012. The c-statistics of new risk score was computed as a measure of discrimination and was compared with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and its adaptions for further validation. RESULTS We finally identified and weighted 22 secondary diagnoses using a logistic regression model. In the external validation, the novel risk score performed better than the widely used CCI in predicting in-hospital mortality of AMI patients (c-statistics: 0.829, 0.832, 0.824 vs. 0.775, 0.773, and 0.710 in training, testing, and validating dataset, respectively). CONCLUSIONS The new risk score developed from DSRs outperform the existing administrative data when applied to healthcare data from China. This risk score can be used for adjusting heterogeneity between hospitals when clinical data from multiple hospitals are included. PMID:27318825

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the new EULAR recommendations on the score cardiovascular risk index.

    Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Robustillo, Montserrat; Narváez, Javier; Rodríguez-Moreno, Jesús; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Llorca, Javier; Nolla, Joan Miquel; González-Gay, Miguel Angel

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of the application of the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk of a series of Spanish patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Two hundred consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, were studied. Information on clinical features of the disease, classic CV risk factors, and history of CV events was assessed. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) CV risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) according to the last EULAR recommendations were calculated. Based on the classic CV risk factors, the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.1 ± 2.3% (median, 2; interquartile range [IQR], 1-3). Twenty-three (11%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population (≥5%). Following the EULAR recommendations, a change in the score was required in 119 (59%) patients. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 2.7 ± 2.9% (median, 2; IQR, 1-3) and, due to this, 28 (14%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk. Nine (5%) had at least one ischemic CV event. Patients with CV events were older and had more CV risk factors and higher SCORE and mSCORE than those without CV events. Although a large proportion of patients from this series fulfilled the criteria for the application of the EULAR recommendations, the final impact on the calculated CV risk was low and clinically significant in only a few patients. However, an association between the mSCORE and the presence of ischemic CV events was observed. PMID:21567119

  20. Renal scarrings (RS) after acute pyelonephritis (APN) in the children under the age of 5 years and its correlation with clinical risk factors

    Lee, B. S.; Moon, D. H.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, W. W.; Yoon, S. Y.; Yoon, J. H.; Park, Y. S. [College of Medicine, Ulsan Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-07-01

    In children with APN, risk factors for the subsequent RS are still controversial. We evaluated the changes in renal cortical defects on the Tc-99m DMSA scan and the relationship between RS and risk factors. Patients were 143 children (age < 5 yrs) with first APN documented by the presence of fever (< 38.5 .deg. C ), and abnormal DMSA scan from 1994 to 2000. We performed a follow-up DMSA scan at 6 months. RS was defined as persistent or partially reversible abnormalities on the follow-up scan. Nine were excluded due to recurrent infection, and 58 who were lost to follow-up. A total of 76 (m/f =38/38) were available for the study (mean age : 1.19 yr, range: 47 day - 5.0 yr). Of 152 kidneys, DMSA was abnormal in 90. Initial defect was completely recovered in 52, partially recovered in 30, and persistent in 8 (38 RS). Univariate analysis revealed that duration of fever, C-reactive protein, and vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) were associated with RS. Multivariate analysis showed that duration of fever and VUR were independent predictors of RS. However, in patients with unilateral defect, only duration of fever (p=0.027) and relative function (p=0.002) were independent predictors. The severity and extent of acute inflammatory response may determine RS. DMSA may be of value because it provides information on the extent of initial parenchymal damage.

  1. Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Using Framingham Risk Score in Korean Cancer Survivors

    So, Ji-Hyun; Shin, Jin-Young; Park, Wan

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in cancer survivors. The aim of this study was to investigate the modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors and 10-year probability of the disease based on the Framingham risk score in cancer survivors, compared with the general population. Methods A total of 1,225 cancer survivors and 5,196 non-cancer controls who participated in the 2007–2013 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were enrolled. We assessed modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and elevated blood glucose level. The 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease was determined by applying the Framingham cardiovascular disease risk equation among cancer survivors and non-cancer controls, ranging from 30 to 74 years old who had no overt cardiovascular diseases. Results The proportion of subjects who had higher fasting glucose levels, hemoglobin A1c levels, systolic blood pressure, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and those who had lower high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels was significantly higher in the cancer survivors than in the non-cancer controls. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease among the cancer survivors was higher than that in the non-cancer controls in both men and women. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease in relation to the cancer type was significantly higher in patients with hepatic, colon, lung, breast, and gastric cancer. Conclusion Cancer survivors have a higher cardiovascular disease risk and 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease than non-cancer controls. Control of cardiovascular disease risk factors and implementation of a well-defined cardiovascular disease prevention program are needed for treating cancer survivors. PMID:27468342

  2. A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

    Hui Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

  3. A Study of Risk Factors and T- Score Variability in Romanian Women with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    Rodica TöRöK-Oance

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to analyse the prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors and to analyse the T-score variability in spine and hip according to the associated risk factors.This is a retrospective study (2003-2007 including 177 female patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis. The patients were separated in seven groups according to the number of risk factors per case. The T-score was compared between this groups using unpaired t-Student test.The most frequent risk factor was early menopause (44.63%, followed by low consumption of dairy products (37.29%, coffee consumption (25.99%, sedentary lifestyle (20.9%, smoking (19.21%, delayed menarche (15.25%, low body mass index (10.71%, nulliparity (7.91%, alcohol consumption (0.56%. The maximum number of risk factors per case was six. The T-score decreased with increasing number of risk factors. T-score differences are statistically significant when comparing cases with 6 risk factors to cases with 5 risk factors (P=0.0315 in spine; P=0.0088 in hip, 4 risk factors (P=0.0076 in spine; P=0.043 in hip, 3 risk factors (P<0.0001 in spine; P=0.0205 in hip, 2 risk factors (P=0.0012 in spine; P<0.0001 in hip, a single risk factor (P<0.001 in spine and hip and no risk factor (P=0.0075 in spine; P=0.0006 in hip.Association of several risk factors leads to decrease of T-score so being able to avoid any such factors may contribute to a better bone mineral density. This could be achieved by the education of female population regarding postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors, followed by adopting an appropriate lifestyle and diet.

  4. Correlation between retinopathy of prematurity and clinical risk index for babies score

    Mousa Ahmadpour-kacho; Yadollah Zahed Pasha; Seyed Ahmad Rasoulinejad; Mahmoud Hajiahmadi; Parisa Pourdad

    2014-01-01

    Background: Several risk factors like prematurity, hyperoxia, hyperglycemia, duration of mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen use have been attributed to the occurrence of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in low birth weight infants. Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) score have been used to assess the severity of the newborn's disease and neonatal mortality. The relation between the CRIB score and the incidence of retinopathy of prematurity is less assessed. This study was carri...

  5. Risk-assessment score for screening diabetes mellitus among Omani adults

    D’Souza, Melba S; Amirtharaj, Anandhi; Venkatesaperumal, Ramesh; Isac, Chandrani; Maroof, Samira

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate a self-administered risk-assessment scoring system for identifying Omani adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: An exploratory cross-sectional design was used. Simple random sampling was used to select 93 adults in Muscat. Ethical approval was obtained from the College of Nursing Research and Ethics Committee. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) was used to collect the data in 2009. Informed consent was obtained from the...

  6. A risk score development for diabetic retinopathy screening in Isfahan-Iran

    Hosseini, Sayed Mohsen; Maracy, Mohammad Reza; Amini, Masoud; Baradaran, Hamid Reza

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a simple risk score as screening tool for retinopathy in type II diabetic patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out recruiting 3734 patients with type II diabetes in an outpatient clinic in Isfahan Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center (IEMRC), Iran. The logistic regression was used as a model to predict diabetic retinopathy. The cut-off value for the risk score was determined using the Receiver Operating Characteris...

  7. Using family atopy scores to identify the risk of atopic dermatitis in infants

    Melisa Anggraeni

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Atopic dermatitis is the first manifestation of allergic disease in early life. Early interventions may prevent the development of allergy disease. Allergy trace cards have been used to identify the level of allergic risk, based on family atopy scores. Because environmental factors may also influence the development of atopic dermatitis, the usefulness of the allergy trace card needs to be reevaluated. Objective To compare the incidence of atopic dermatitis in infants aged 0-4 months with total family atopy scores of > 0 to those with scores of 0. Methods We conducted this cohort study from June 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 at Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar. Family atopy score was tabulated from all pregnant woman in the Obstetric Outpatient Clinic and the Maternity Room. Subjects were divided into two groups based on their total family atopy score: those with scores > 0 and those with scores of 0. The appearance of atopic dermatitis symptoms in the infants were evaluated until they reached 4 months of age. The incidence of atopic dermatitis in two groups was compared using Chi-square test. Results The incidence of atopic dermatitis in this study was 10.9%. The group with total family atopy scores of 0 had a significantly higher incidence of atopic dermatitis than the group with scores > 0 (adjusted RR 22.5; 95%CI 8.8 to 57.0; P = 0.001. Conclusion The incidence of atopic dermatitis is higher in infants with total family atopy score > 0 and this group has a 22.5 times higher risk of atopic dermatitis compared to infants with total family atopy score of 0. Allergy trace cards are relevant in differentiating the risk of atopy with regards to development of atopic dermatitis. We suggest that family atopy scores be evaluated during antenatal care in order to limit the development of atopic dermatitis in infants. [Paediatr Indones. 2014;54:330-7.].

  8. Assessing Framingham cardiovascular risk scores in subjects with diabetes and their correlation with diabetic retinopathy

    Deepali R Damkondwar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To study the Framingham cardiovascular risk assessment scores in subjects with diabetes and their association with diabetic retinopathy in subjects with diabetes. Materials and Methods: In this population-based prospective study, subjects with diabetes were recruited (n=1248; age ≥40 years. The Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were calculated for 1248 subjects with type 2 diabetes. The scores were classified as high risk (>10%, and low risk (<10%. Results: Out of the 1248 subjects, 830 (66.5% patients had a low risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD in 10 years and 418 (33.5% had a high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. The risk of developing CVD was more in males than females (56.8% vs. 7% The prevalence of both diabetic retinopathy and sight-threatening retinopathy was more in the high-risk group (21% and 4.5%, respectively. The risk factors for developing diabetic retinopathy were similar in both the groups (low vs. high - duration of diabetes (OR 1.14 vs. 1.08, higher HbA1c (OR 1.24 vs. 1.22, presence of macro- and microalbuminuria (OR 10.17 vs. 6.12 for macro-albuminuria and use of insulin (OR 2.06 vs. 4.38. The additional risk factors in the high-risk group were presence of anemia (OR 2.65 and higher serum high density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol (OR 1.05. Conclusion: Framingham risk scoring, a global risk assessment tool to predict the 10-year risk of developing CVD, can also predict the occurrence and type of diabetic retinopathy. Those patients with high CVD scores should be followed up more frequently and treated adequately. This also warrants good interaction between the treating physician/cardiologist and the ophthalmologist.

  9. Incidence of cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation and cardiovascular risk scores: study protocol

    Lorenzo-Aguiar Dolores

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the major cause of death after renal transplantation. Not only conventional CVD risk factors, but also transplant-specific risk factors can influence the development of CVD in kidney transplant recipients. The main objective of this study will be to determine the incidence of post-transplant CVD after renal transplantation and related factors. A secondary objective will be to examine the ability of standard cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham, Regicor, SCORE, and DORICA to predict post-transplantation cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients, and to develop a new score for predicting the risk of CVD after kidney transplantation. Methods/Design Observational prospective cohort study of all kidney transplant recipients in the A Coruña Hospital (Spain in the period 1981-2008 (2059 transplants corresponding to 1794 patients. The variables included will be: donor and recipient characteristics, chronic kidney disease-related risk factors, pre-transplant and post-transplant cardiovascular risk factors, routine biochemistry, and immunosuppressive, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment. The events studied in the follow-up will be: patient and graft survival, acute rejection episodes and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, invasive coronary artery therapy, cerebral vascular events, new-onset angina, congestive heart failure, rhythm disturbances and peripheral vascular disease. Four cardiovascular risk scores were calculated at the time of transplantation: the Framingham score, the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE equation, and the REGICOR (Registre Gironí del COR (Gerona Heart Registry, and DORICA (Dyslipidemia, Obesity, and Cardiovascular Risk functions. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events will be analyzed by competing risk survival methods. The clinical relevance of different variables will be calculated using the ARR (Absolute Risk

  10. CAIDE Dementia Risk Score and biomarkers of neurodegeneration in memory clinic patients without dementia.

    Enache, Daniela; Solomon, Alina; Cavallin, Lena; Kåreholt, Ingemar; Kramberger, Milica Gregoric; Aarsland, Dag; Kivipelto, Miia; Eriksdotter, Maria; Winblad, Bengt; Jelic, Vesna

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to explore cross-sectional associations between Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia Study (CAIDE) Dementia Risk Score and dementia-related cerebrospinal fluid and neuroimaging biomarkers in 724 patients without dementia from the Memory Clinic at Karolinska University Hospital, Huddinge, Sweden. We additionally evaluated the score's capacity to predict dementia. Two risk score versions were calculated: one including age, gender, obesity, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension; and one additionally including apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carrier status. Cerebrospinal fluid was analyzed for amyloid β (Aβ), total tau, and phosphorylated tau. Visual assessments of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), global cortical atrophy-frontal subscale, and Fazekas scale for white matter changes (WMC) were performed. Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score (version without APOE) was significantly associated with higher total tau, more severe MTA, WMC, and global cortical atrophy-frontal subscale. Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score (version with APOE) was associated with reduced Aβ, more severe MTA, and WMC. CAIDE Dementia Risk Score version with APOE seemed to predict dementia better in this memory clinic population with short follow-up than the version without APOE. PMID:27143429

  11. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  12. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score

    I Ramsay

    2012-11-01

    significant predictors. The overall mean cfPWV for the HIV cohort (n=47 was 9.09±2.13 m/s compared to 11.95±2.37 m/s in the control group (n=46(p<0.01. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score or carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. This may be due to good control of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and a healthy lifestyle in this cohort.

  13. Comparison of mortality risk: a score for very low birthweight infants

    Maier, R.; Rey, M.; Metze, B; Obladen, M.; TARNOW-MORDI, W

    1997-01-01

    AIM—To develop and evaluate a score which quantifies mortality risk in very low birthweight (VLBW) infants (birthweight below 1500 g) at admission to the neonatal intensive care unit.
METHODS—Five hundred and seventy two VLBW infants admitted from 1978 to 1987 were randomly assigned to a cohort (n = 396) for score development and a cohort (n = 176) for score validation. Two hundred and ninety four VLBW infants admitted from 1988 to 1991 were used to compare risk adjusted mortality between the...

  14. Correlation between Progetto Cuore risk score and early cardiovascular damage in never treated subjects

    Bertolini Stefano

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global cardiovascular risk is a new approach which allows the physicians to quantitate the prognosis of the patients. It is therefore possible that a score, based on the major cardiovascular risk factors, is correlated with some degree of cardiovascular anatomic damage. Since this hypothesis has been demonstrated with the Framingham risk score, we decided to verify it using another score (Progetto Cuore risk score, which is probably more precise in a european low-risk population, such as the italian one. Methods We studied 84 italian caucasian subjects (50 males and 34 females with elevated blood pressure and/or dyslipidemia plus other possible cardiovascular risk factors. The subjects have never been treated for these reasons. The following evaluations were performed: history, clinical and laboratory determinations, echocardiogram, carotid echodoppler. Results The recruited people were on the whole characterized by a low cardiovascular risk, as confirmed by the low scores of the Progetto Cuore. Simple linear regression analysis showed significant associations between some parameters of early cardiovascular damage (left ventricular mass, intima-media thickness, and an integrated measure of both the carotid wall thickness and the presence of a plaque, called Carotid score and some predictors. The highest significance was found between the cardiovascular structural results and the Progetto Cuore score. In a multivariate regression analysis our model, which included factors potentially linked to the cardiovascular anatomic changes, demonstrated that the Carotid score was significantly associated with age, sex and pulse pressure; intima-media thickness with the same factors and, in addition, with the body mass index; left ventricular mass with sex, pulse pressure and body mass index. Conclusion Our paper confirms previous studies about the association between a comprehensive risk score and signs of early cardiovascular damage. A

  15. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  16. Antipsychotics and Mortality: Adjusting for Mortality Risk Scores to Address Confounding by Terminal Illness

    Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Earlier studies have documented a greater mortality risk associated with conventional compared with atypical antipsychotics. Concern remains that the association is not causal, but due to residual confounding by differences in underlying health. To address this concern, we evaluated whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed fornursing home (NH) populations affected the magnitude of the previously observed associations. DESIGN Cohort study SETTING A merged dataset of Medicaid, Medicare, the Minimum Data Set (MDS), the Online Survey Certification and Reporting system (OSCAR), and the National Death Index in the US for 2001-2005 PARTICIPANTS Dual eligible subjects ≥ 65 years who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (n=75,445). MEASUREMENTS Three mortality risk scores (MRIS, MMRI-R, and ADEPT) were derived for each patient using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The impact of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PS) on the antipsychotic-mortality association was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. RESULTS Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users in the full cohort, suggesting potential confounding, were greatly reduced within PS deciles. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS only adjustment vs. 2.20, 2.20, 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. CONCLUSION Although causality cannot be proven based on non-randomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting alternative explanations for the increased mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics. PMID:25752911

  17. Comparison of accuracy of diabetes risk score and components of the metabolic syndrome in assessing risk of incident type 2 diabetes in Inter99 cohort.

    Tracy B Shafizadeh

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS. DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30-60 for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0-2, 3 or 4-5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI. Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008 demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention.

  18. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

    Goh LGH

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

  19. Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E.; Featherstone, Peter I.; Prytherch, David; Smith, Gary B.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. Methods We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value ...

  20. Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Outpatient Kidney Transplant Clinic: The Framingham Risk Score Revisited

    Kiberd, Bryce; Panek, Romuald

    2008-01-01

    Background and objectives: Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and death in kidney transplant recipients. This study examines the Framingham risk score's ability to predict cardiac and stroke events. Because cyclosporine and tacrolimus have different cardiovascular risk profiles, these agents were also examined.

  1. Development of a cardiovascular risk score for use in low- and middle-income countries

    Summary measures of cardiovascular risk have long been used in public health, but few include nutritional predictors despite extensive evidence linking diet and heart disease. Study objectives were to develop and validate a novel risk score in a case-control study of myocardial infarction (MI) condu...

  2. Low amniotic fluid index in high risk pregnancy and poor apgar score at birth

    To determine the accuracy of antepartum Amniotic Fluid Index (AFI) of 5 cm was labeled as predictor of good outcome at birth. The subjects in both the groups were demographically matched and fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Apgar score was calculated at 5 minutes of birth. The newborns, with Apgar score 6 were labeled as healthy. AFI was compared with Apgar score, using Chi-square and a p-value was calculated to determine the statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and the predictive values of AFI at a cut off point of < 5 cm as a predictor of adverse outcome at birth (Apgar score of < 6 at 5 minutes of birth) in high-risk pregnancy were calculated. Only 8 neonates of 50 women with low AFI had low Apgar score. Similarly, 6 neonates of 50 women with normal AFI had poor Apgar score. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and efficiency of AFI as test were 57.1%, 51.3%, 16%, 88% and 52% respectively. Low AFI is a poor predictor of adverse outcome for high-risk term patients. AFI is not a good screening test for high-risk pregnant women at term for birth of an infant with low Apgar score. (author)

  3. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W;

    2009-01-01

    SCORE is based on traditional risk factors. We wanted to compare the predictive performance of the two charts. METHODS: In a Danish population sample of 1344 individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years without known diabetes, prior stroke or myocardial infarction, not receiving cardiovascular, antidiabetic......OBJECTIVE: The risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) are equally recommended tools for risk stratification. However, ESH risk chart recommends measuring subclinical organ damage, whereas......: During the following 12.8 years cardiovascular death and CEP occurred in 71 and 132 patients, respectively. Forty-two percent had unrecognized hypertension. The sizes and characteristics of the populations in the different risk categories of the charts varied considerably as ESH risk chart allocated 368...

  4. Serum Gamma-Glutamyltransferase Concentration Correlates with Framingham Risk Score in Koreans

    Kim, Kyu-Nam; Kim, Kwang-Min; Lee, Duck-Joo; Joo, Nam-Seok

    2011-01-01

    Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a novel coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factor, but its use as an independent factor for CAD risk prediction remains unclear in Asian population. This study examined the association between serum GGT concentration and Framingham risk score (FRS) in the Korean population. This cross-sectional study was performed on 30,710 Koreans. Besides FRS, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, liver enzymes, lipid profile, uric acid and high sensitive C-reactive prot...

  5. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos; Milad Abedi

    2016-01-01

    Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a cont...

  6. Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population – a retrospective cohort study

    Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

    2014-01-01

    Background The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort ...

  7. The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score App: The development of an evidence-based mobile application to predict the risk of dementia

    Sindi, Shireen; Calov, Elisabeth; Fokkens, Jasmine; Ngandu, Tiia; Soininen, Hilkka; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Kivipelto, Miia

    2015-01-01

    Background The CAIDE (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia) Dementia Risk Score is a validated tool to predict late-life dementia risk (20 years later), based on midlife vascular risk factors. The goal was to render this prediction tool widely accessible. Methods The CAIDE Risk Score (mobile application) App was developed based on the CAIDE Dementia Risk Score, involving information on age, educational level, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and physical i...

  8. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads;

    2016-01-01

    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used as...... the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both...... lifetime and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model...

  9. Association between selected dietary scores and the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma: A prospective cohort study.

    Dugué, Pierre-Antoine; Hodge, Allison M; Brinkman, Maree T; Bassett, Julie K; Shivappa, Nitin; Hebert, James R; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Milne, Roger L; Giles, Graham G

    2016-09-15

    Studies investigating the association of food and nutrient consumption with the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) have produced mixed results. We used three common dietary scores, the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010) and the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) to assess the evidence of an association between diet and the risk of UCC. Over a median follow-up time of 21.3 years, 379 incident UCC cases were diagnosed. Dietary scores were calculated using data from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. We used Cox models to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the association between dietary scores (per one standard deviation) and UCC risk. In order to reflect overall adherence to a healthy diet, a metascore was constructed by summing the quintiles of each of the three scores. None of the dietary scores was associated with the risk of UCC overall. A healthier diet was found to be inversely associated with the risk of invasive (MDS: HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.74-1.00, metascore: HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.71-0.98), but not superficial disease (heterogeneity between subtypes p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively). Results were consistent but weaker for the DII and the AHEI-2010. We found some evidence of effect modification by smoking, in particular for the metascore (Current: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.58-1.01, Former: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64-0.92, Never: HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.81-1.26, p for heterogeneity = 0.05). A healthy diet may be protective against the risk of invasive, but not superficial, UCC. Promoting healthy dietary habits may help lower the risk of invasive UCC, especially for current and former smokers. PMID:27149545

  10. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K;

    2008-01-01

    The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population sam......CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population.......The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population...... sample of 2460 individuals was divided in three groups: 472 subjects receiving cardiovascular medication or having history of diabetes, prior myocardial infarction or stroke, 559 high-risk subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular death above 5% as estimated by HeartScore, and 1429 low-moderate risk...

  11. Preoperative risk score predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection in a population-based study.

    Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Su, Yu-Chieh; Wei, Chang-Kao; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Juang, Shiun-Yang; Chen, Yi-Ting; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Lee, Ching-Chih

    2014-09-01

    The impact of important preexisting comorbidities, such as liver and renal disease, on the outcome of liver resection remains unclear. Identification of patients at risk of mortality will aid in improving preoperative preparations. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a population-based score based on available preoperative and predictable parameters predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection using data from a hepatitis endemic country.We identified 13,159 patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2006 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a randomly selected half of the total patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by patient demographics, preoperative liver disease and comorbidities, indication for surgery, and procedure type. The score was validated with the remaining half of the patients.Overall 90-day mortality was 3.9%. Predictive characteristics included in the model were age, preexisting cirrhosis-related complications, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal disease, malignancy, and procedure type. Four risk groups were stratified by mortality scores of 1.1%, 2.2%, 7.7%, and 15%. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications were the strongest predictors. The score discriminated well in both the derivation and validation sets with c-statistics of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.This population-based score could identify patients at risk of 90-day mortality before liver resection. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications had the strongest influence on mortality. This score enables preoperative risk stratification, decision-making, quality assessment, and counseling for individual patients. PMID:25211044

  12. The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock;

    2012-01-01

    associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated....... Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0......DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared...

  13. High Agatston Calcium Score of Intracranial Carotid Artery: A Significant Risk Factor for Cognitive Impairment.

    Kao, Hung-Wen; Liou, Michelle; Chung, Hsiao-Wen; Liu, Hua-Shan; Tsai, Ping-Huei; Chiang, Shih-Wei; Chou, Ming-Chung; Peng, Giia-Sheun; Huang, Guo-Shu; Hsu, Hsian-He; Chen, Cheng-Yu

    2015-09-01

    The effect of intracranial internal carotid artery (ICA) calcification on cognitive impairment is uncertain. Our objective was to investigate whether intracranial ICA calcification is a significant cognitive predictor for cognitive impairment. Global cognition and degrees of intracranial ICA calcification of 579 subjects were assessed with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Agatston calcium scoring method, respectively. Other risk factors for cognitive impairment, including age, education level, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, hyperlipidemia, and body mass index, were documented and analyzed for their associations with cognitive function. In univariate analyses, older age, lower education level, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and higher intracranial ICA Agatston scores were significantly associated with cognitive impairment. In ordinal logistic regression, only age and total intracranial ICA Agatston score were significant risk factors for cognitive impairment. After adjustment for the other documented risk factors, subjects were 7% (95% CI: 5-10; P calcification on cognitive impairment. PMID:26426620

  14. A Risk Score to Predict Hypertension in Primary Care Settings in Rural India.

    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, P Sankara; Razum, Oliver; Thrift, Amanda Gay; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2016-01-01

    We used the data of 297 participants (15-64 years old) from a cohort study (2003-2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive value of 90.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.802 (95% confidence interval = 0.748-0.856). This simple and easy to administer risk score could be used to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India. PMID:26354334

  15. Predicting progression of IgA nephropathy: new clinical progression risk score.

    Jingyuan Xie

    Full Text Available IgA nephropathy (IgAN is a common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD in Asia. In this study, based on a large cohort of Chinese patients with IgAN, we aim to identify independent predictive factors associated with disease progression to ESRD. We collected retrospective clinical data and renal outcomes on 619 biopsy-diagnosed IgAN patients with a mean follow-up time of 41.3 months. In total, 67 individuals reached the study endpoint defined by occurrence of ESRD necessitating renal replacement therapy. In the fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, there were four baseline variables with a significant independent effect on the risk of ESRD. These included: eGFR [HR = 0.96(0.95-0.97], serum albumin [HR = 0.47(0.32-0.68], hemoglobin [HR = 0.79(0.72-0.88], and SBP [HR = 1.02(1.00-1.03]. Based on these observations, we developed a 4-variable equation of a clinical risk score for disease progression. Our risk score explained nearly 22% of the total variance in the primary outcome. Survival ROC curves revealed that the risk score provided improved prediction of ESRD at 24th, 60th and 120th month of follow-up compared to the three previously proposed risk scores. In summary, our data indicate that IgAN patients with higher systolic blood pressure, lower eGFR, hemoglobin, and albumin levels at baseline are at a greatest risk of progression to ESRD. The new progression risk score calculated based on these four baseline variables offers a simple clinical tool for risk stratification.

  16. Assessment of the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in a group of Iranian patients

    Hamidreza Jamaati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Previous studies around the world indicated validity and accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE risk scoring system we evaluated the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery in a group of Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: In this cohort 2220 patients more than 18 years, who were performed CABG surgery in Massih Daneshvari Hospital, from January 2004 to March 2010 were recruited. Predicted mortality risk scores were calculated using logistic EuroSCORE and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL test and discrimination by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve area. Results: Of the 2220 patients, in hospital deaths occurred in 270 patients (mortality rate of 12.2%. The accuracy of mortality prediction in the logistic EuroSCORE and APACHE II model was 89.1%; in the local EuroSCORE (logistic was 91.89%; and in the local EuroSCORE support vector machines (SVM was 98.6%. The area under curve for ROC curve, was 0.724 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.88 for logistic EuroSCORE; 0.836 (95% CI: 0.731-0.942 for local EuroSCORE (logistic; 0.978 (95% CI: 0.937-1 for Local EuroSCORE (SVM; and 0.832 (95% CI: 0.723-0.941 for APACHE II model. The HL test showed good calibration for the local EuroSCORE (SVM, APACHE II model and local EuroSCORE (logistic (P = 0.823, P = 0.748 and P = 0.06 respectively; but there was a significant difference between expected and observed mortality according to EuroSCORE model (P = 0.033. Conclusion: We detected logistic EuroSCORE risk model is not applicable on Iranian patients undergoing CABG surgery.

  17. Evaluation of a risk factor scoring model in screening for undiagnosed diabetes in China population

    Jian-jun DONG; Neng-jun LOU; Jia-jun ZHAO; Zhong-wen ZHANG; Lu-lu QIU; Ying ZHOU; Lin LIAO

    2011-01-01

    Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTr) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83%and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.

  18. A modified risk assessment scoring system for post laser in situ keratomileusis ectasia in topographically normal patients

    Mohammad Miraftab

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required.

  19. Metabolic syndrome risk assessment in children: use of a single score

    Julia Khéde Dourado Villa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To calculate a score of metabolic syndrome (MetS in children and set a cutoff point of this score for the prediction of MetS risk. METHODS: The study included a random sample of 348 children aged 8 and 9 years of Viçosa, Southeast Brazil. Factor analysis by principal components (PCA was used to determine, among various risk factors, those with higher degrees of intercorrelation. The chosen variables were: waist circumference (PC, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA, high density lipoprotein (HDL, triglycerides (TAG and mean arterial pressure (MAP. Z-scores were created for each one of these parameters and the sum of these z-scores constituted the MetS score. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to identify the cutoff of MetS score, using as gold standard the presence or absence of MetS determined according to criteria age-modified. RESULTS: The prevalence of MetS in the sample was 8.9% by adopting specific criteria for age, and 24% when considering the cutoff of MetS score. The selected cutoff point of 1.86 was accurate to predict the MetS risk in this sample due to its high sensitivity (96.7%, specificity (82.7% and AUC of 0.96. CONCLUSIONS: This original Brazilian study presents the MetS score as a suitable alternative for the study of Metabolic Syndrome in children, given the lack of consensus for the definition of this syndrome in childhood.

  20. Development of an Adverse Drug Reaction Risk Assessment Score among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

    Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh; Syed Sulaiman, Syed Azhar; Saheb Sharif-Askari, Narjes; Al Sayed Hussain, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Background Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) represent a major burden on the healthcare system. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are particularly vulnerable to ADRs because they are usually on multiple drug regimens, have multiple comorbidities, and because of alteration in their pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic parameters. Therefore, one step towards reducing this burden is to identify patients who are at increased risk of an ADR. Objective To develop a method of identifying CKD patients who are at increased risk for experiencing ADRs during hospitalisation. Materials and Methods Factors associated with ADRs were identified by using demographic, clinical and laboratory variables of patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated glomerular filtration rate, 10–59 ml/min/1.73 m2) who were admitted between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, to the renal unit of Dubai Hospital. An ADR risk score was developed by constructing a series of logistic regression models. The overall model performance for sequential models was evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion for goodness of fit. Odd ratios of the variables retained in the best model were used to compute the risk scores. Results Of 512 patients (mean [SD] age, 60 [16] years), 62 (12.1%) experienced an ADR during their hospitalisation. An ADR risk score included age 65 years or more, female sex, conservatively managed end-stage renal disease, vascular disease, serum level of C-reactive protein more than 10 mg/L, serum level of albumin less than 3.5 g/dL, and the use of 8 medications or more during hospitalization. The C statistic, which assesses the ability of the risk score to predict ADRs, was 0.838; 95% CI, 0.784–0.892). Conclusion A score using routinely available patient data can be used to identify CKD patients who are at increased risk of ADRs. PMID:24755778

  1. Development of a Risk Score for Extraintestinal Manifestations of Coeliac Disease.

    Chiu, Christine L; Hearn, Nerissa L; Lind, Joanne M

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to identify indicators of coeliac disease (CD) in an Australian cohort, beyond the known gastrointestinal symptoms. Individuals were recruited from the general population and at the 2014 Gluten Free Expo in Sydney and in Melbourne, Australia. Data on their current health status including medical history, diagnosis for CD, and family history were collected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of CD. A weighted risk score system was then generated for the independent predictors, and a risk score was calculated for each individual. A total of 301 individuals were included in the study. We found an association between CD and having a family history of CD (odds ratio [OR] 7.6, 95%confidence interval [CI] 3.7-15.6), an autoimmune disorder (OR 2.1, 95%CI 1.1-4.1), anemia (OR 5.8, 95%CI 2.8-11.9), lactose intolerance (OR 4.5, 95%CI 1.2-17.7), and depression (OR 4.8, 95%CI 1.9-11.6). Risk score analysis found individuals in the medium (OR 4.8, 95%CI 2.5 to 9.3) and high-risk (OR 36.6, 95%CI 16.4 to 81.6) groups were significantly more likely to report having CD compared with those in the low-risk group. This study identifies a set of factors more commonly observed in individuals with CD, beyond the traditional gastrointestinal complaints. These include a family history of CD, the presence of another autoimmune disorder, anemia, lactose intolerance, and depression. A risk score was developed (Coeliac Risk COMPARE) which scores individuals based on the presence or absence of these additional symptoms and provides an additional screening tool when assessing whether the patient requires follow-up testing for CD. PMID:27082568

  2. Update on risk scoring systems for patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage

    Adrian J Stanley

    2012-01-01

    Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH) remains a common medical emergency worldwide.It is increasingly recognised that early risk assessment is an important part of management,which helps direct appropriate patient care and the timing of endoscopy.Several risk scores have been developed,most of which include endoscopic findings,although a minority do not.These scores were developed to identify various end-points including mortality,rebleeding or clinical intervention in the form of transfusion,endoscopic therapy or surgery.Recent studies have reported accurate identification of a very low risk group on presentation,using scores which require simple clinical or laboratory parameters only.This group may not require admission,but could be managed with early out-patient endoscopy.This article aims to describe the existing pre- and post-en-doscopy risk scores for UGIH and assess the published data comparing them in the prediction of outcome.Recent data assessing their use in clinical practice,in particular the early identification of low-risk patients,are also discussed.

  3. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  4. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

    Priscila Costa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  5. Clinical validity and utility of genetic risk scores in prostate cancer.

    Helfand, Brian T; Kearns, James; Conran, Carly; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Current issues related to prostate cancer (PCa) clinical care (e.g., over-screening, over-diagnosis, and over-treatment of nonaggressive PCa) call for risk assessment tools that can be combined with family history (FH) to stratify disease risk among men in the general population. Since 2007, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified more than 100 SNPs associated with PCa susceptibility. In this review, we discuss (1) the validity of these PCa risk-associated SNPs, individually and collectively; (2) the various methods used for measuring the cumulative effect of multiple SNPs, including genetic risk score (GRS); (3) the adequate number of SNPs needed for risk assessment; (4) reclassification of risk based on evolving numbers of SNPs used to calculate genetic risk, (5) risk assessment for men from various racial groups, and (6) the clinical utility of genetic risk assessment. In conclusion, data available to date support the clinical validity of PCa risk-associated SNPs and GRS in risk assessment among men with or without FH. PCa risk-associated SNPs are not intended for diagnostic use; rather, they should be used the same way as FH. Combining GRS and FH can significantly improve the performance of risk assessment. Improved risk assessment may have important clinical utility in targeted PCa testing. However, clinical trials are urgently needed to evaluate this clinical utility as well as the acceptance of GRS by patients and physicians. PMID:27297129

  6. Association Between a Multi-Locus Genetic Risk Score and Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Pingzhao Hu; Aleixo M Muise; Xiang Xing; Brumell, John H.; Silverberg, Mark S.; Wei Xu

    2013-01-01

    To date, the utility of single genetic markers to improve disease risk assessment still explains only a small proportion of genetic variance for many complex diseases. This missing heritability may be explained by additional variants with weak effects. To discover and incorporate these additional genetic factors, statistical and computational methods must be evaluated and developed. We develop a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) based approach to analyze genes in NADPH oxidase complex whic...

  7. The New York PTSD Risk Score for Assessment of Psychological Trauma: Male and Female Versions

    Boscarino, Joseph A.; Kirchner, H. Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E.; Figley, Charles R.

    2012-01-01

    We previously developed a new posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument – the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS). Since research suggests different PTSD risk factors and outcomes for men and women, in the current study we assessed the suitability of male and female versions of this screening instrument among 3,298 adults exposed to traumatic events. Using diagnostic test methods, including receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap techniques, we examined different prediction ...

  8. Gene expression-based risk score in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    Bret, Caroline; Klein, Bernard; Moreaux, Jérôme

    2012-01-01

    International audience Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common type of non-Hodgkin lymphoma and displays heterogeneous clinical and molecular characteristics. In this study, high throughput gene expression profiling of DLBCL tumor samples was used to design a 12-gene expression-based risk score (GERS) predictive for patient's overall survival. GERS allowed identifying a high-risk group comprising 46,4% of the DLBCL patients in two independent cohorts (n=414 and n=69). GERS...

  9. An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Sharmini Selvarajah

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. METHODS: Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785 and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764 and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761. Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. CONCLUSIONS: The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

  10. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study

    Cheng Wang; Xiao-Ling Lin; Yu-Ying Fan; Yuan-Ting Liu; Xing-Lan Zhang; Yun-Kai Lu; Chun-Hua Xu; Yu-Ming Chen

    2016-01-01

    Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), the alter...

  11. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Lee, Ing-Kit; Liu, Jien-Wei; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Chen, Yi-Chun; Tsai, Ching-Yen; Huang, Shi-Yu; Lin, Chun-Yu; Huang, Chung-Hao

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD) (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment). We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days) and 2 (dengue illness >4 days). In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points) showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924). The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points), significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963), with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%). The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983) and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0) in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts) were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points, irrespective of

  12. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  13. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy.

    Swanson, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  14. A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

    T. Marwick; L. Case (Laura); D. Poldermans (Don); H. Boersma (Eric); J.J. Bax (Jeroen); T. Sawada (Takahiro); J.D. Thomas (James)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractObjectives We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. Background In cont

  15. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

    1984-01-01

    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

  16. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI: a correlation with histopathology

    Boesen, Lars; Mikines, Kari [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Urology, Herlev (Denmark); Chabanova, Elizaveta; Loegager, Vibeke; Thomsen, Henrik S. [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Herlev (Denmark); Balslev, Ingegerd [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Herlev (Denmark)

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. Eighty-seven patients with clinically localised prostate cancer scheduled for radical prostatectomy were prospectively enrolled. Multiparametric MRI was performed prior to prostatectomy, and evaluated according to the ESUR MR prostate guidelines by two different readers. An MRI clinical T-stage (cT{sub MRI}), an ECE risk score, and suspicion of ECE based on tumour characteristics and personal opinion were assigned. Histopathological prostatectomy results were standard reference. Histopathology and cT{sub MRI} showed a spearman rho correlation of 0.658 (p < 0.001) and a weighted kappa = 0.585 [CI 0.44;0.73](reader A). ECE was present in 31/87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction of ECE changed to 61 %-74 % and 77 %-88 % for the readers, respectively. Multiparametric MRI with ECE risk-scoring is an accurate diagnostic technique in determining prostate cancer clinical tumour stage and ECE at final pathology. (orig.)

  17. Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

    Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate ca...

  18. Influence of Polygenic Risk Scores on the Association Between Infections and Schizophrenia

    Benros, Michael E; Trabjerg, Betina B; Meier, Sandra;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested an important role of infections in the etiology of schizophrenia; however, shared genetic liability toward infections and schizophrenia could influence the association. We therefore investigated the possible effect of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for...... measured by PRS did not account for the association with infection in this sample....

  19. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study.

    Wang, Cheng; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Fan, Yu-Ying; Liu, Yuan-Ting; Zhang, Xing-Lan; Lu, Yun-Kai; Xu, Chun-Hua; Chen, Yu-Ming

    2016-03-01

    Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI), the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed). After adjustment for various lifestyle and dietary factors, greater diet quality scores on the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I-but not on the aMed-showed a significant association with a lower risk of NPC (p-trends, extreme quartiles of the three significant scores were 0.47 (0.32-0.68) (HEI-2005), 0.48 (0.33-0.70) (aHEI), and 0.43 (0.30-0.62) (DQI-I). In gender-stratified analyses, the favorable association remained significant in men but not in women. We found that adherence to the predefined dietary patterns represented by the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I scales predicted a lower risk of NPC in adults from south China, especially in men. PMID:26927167

  20. Autism risk assessment in siblings of affected children using sex-specific genetic scores

    Carayol Jerome

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inheritance pattern in most cases of autism is complex. The risk of autism is increased in siblings of children with autism and previous studies have indicated that the level of risk can be further identified by the accumulation of multiple susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs allowing for the identification of a higher-risk subgroup among siblings. As a result of the sex difference in the prevalence of autism, we explored the potential for identifying sex-specific autism susceptibility SNPs in siblings of children with autism and the ability to develop a sex-specific risk assessment genetic scoring system. Methods SNPs were chosen from genes known to be associated with autism. These markers were evaluated using an exploratory sample of 480 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE repository. A reproducibility index (RI was proposed and calculated in all children with autism and in males and females separately. Differing genetic scoring models were then constructed to develop a sex-specific genetic score model designed to identify individuals with a higher risk of autism. The ability of the genetic scores to identify high-risk children was then evaluated and replicated in an independent sample of 351 affected and 90 unaffected siblings from families with at least 1 child with autism. Results We identified three risk SNPs that had a high RI in males, two SNPs with a high RI in females, and three SNPs with a high RI in both sexes. Using these results, genetic scoring models for males and females were developed which demonstrated a significant association with autism (P = 2.2 × 10-6 and 1.9 × 10-5, respectively. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that individual susceptibility associated SNPs for autism may have important differential sex effects. We also show that a sex-specific risk score based on the presence of multiple susceptibility associated SNPs allow for the identification of

  1. The Addition of Vascular Calcification Scores to Traditional Risk Factors Improves Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

    Liabeuf, Sophie; Desjardins, Lucie; Diouf, Momar; Temmar, Mohamed; Renard, Cédric; Choukroun, Gabriel; Massy, Ziad A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although a variety of non-invasive methods for measuring cardiovascular (CV) risk (such as carotid intima media thickness, pulse wave velocity (PWV), coronary artery and aortic calcification scores (measured either by CT scan or X-ray) and the ankle brachial index (ABI)) have been evaluated separately in chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts, few studies have evaluated these methods simultaneously. Here, we looked at whether the addition of non-invasive methods to traditional risk f...

  2. Genetic Risk Scores Implicated in Adult Bone Fragility Associate With Pediatric Bone Density.

    Mitchell, Jonathan A; Chesi, Alessandra; Elci, Okan; McCormack, Shana E; Roy, Sani M; Kalkwarf, Heidi J; Lappe, Joan M; Gilsanz, Vicente; Oberfield, Sharon E; Shepherd, John A; Kelly, Andrea; Grant, Struan Fa; Zemel, Babette S

    2016-04-01

    Using adult identified bone mineral density (BMD) loci, we calculated genetic risk scores (GRS) to determine if they were associated with changes in BMD during childhood. Longitudinal data from the Bone Mineral Density in Childhood Study were analyzed (N = 798, 54% female, all European ancestry). Participants had up to 6 annual dual energy X-ray scans, from which areal BMD (aBMD) Z-scores for the spine, total hip, and femoral neck were estimated, as well as total body less head bone mineral content (TBLH-BMC) Z-scores. Sixty-three single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped, and the percentage of BMD-lowering alleles carried was calculated (overall adult GRS). Subtype GRS that include SNPs associated with fracture risk, pediatric BMD, WNT signaling, RANK-RANKL-OPG, and mesenchymal stem cell differentiation were also calculated. Linear mixed effects models were used to test associations between each GRS and bone Z-scores, and if any association differed by sex and/or chronological age. The overall adult, fracture, and WNT signaling GRS were associated with lower Z-scores (eg, spine aBMD Z-score: βadult  = -0.04, p = 3.4 × 10(-7) ; βfracture = -0.02, p = 8.9 × 10(-6) ; βWNT  = -0.01, p = 3.9 × 10(-4) ). The overall adult GRS was more strongly associated with lower Z-scores in females (p-interaction ≤ 0.05 for all sites). The fracture GRS was more strongly associated with lower Z-scores with increasing age (p-interaction ≤ 0.05 for all sites). The WNT GRS associations remained consistent for both sexes and all ages (p-interaction > 0.05 for all sites). The RANK-RANKL-OPG GRS was more strongly associated in females with increasing age (p-interaction < 0.05 for all sites). The mesenchymal stem cell GRS was associated with lower total hip and femoral neck Z-scores, in both boys and girls, across all ages. No associations were observed between the pediatric GRS and bone Z-scores. In conclusion, adult identified BMD loci associated with BMD and

  3. Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

    Mohammad R Maracy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

  4. Does simplicity compromise accuracy in ACS risk prediction? A retrospective analysis of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores.

    Krishna G Aragam

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753 and STEMI (n = 698 subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%, and among the survivors, 234 (7.4% died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48-0.60; p<0.01 and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76-0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52-0.60; p<0.01 mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89; p = 0.83 and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64-0.79; p = 0.79 mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution

  5. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

    Pletcher Mark J

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  6. Modified physiological and operative severity score for risk assessment in patient of perforation peritonitis

    Gopal Tak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To establish a scoring system for predicting the incidence of postoperative complications and mortality in patients with perforation peritonitis based on the modified physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (M-POSSUM, and to evaluate its efficacy. Methods: Patients under study, were grouped as those with postoperative complications (n = 35 and those without postoperative complications (n = 35. The period of study was 12 months and the data was analysed retrospectively and prospectively for logistical regression. Patients with age less than 12 years were excluded. Modified POSSUM (M-POSSUM was used and its efficacy evaluated. Fifteen indices were assessed as part of the scoring system such as age, cardiovascular function, respiratory function, blood test results, endocrine function, central nervous system function, hepatic function, renal function, nutritional status, extent of operative trauma, and course of anaesthesia. Results: Logistic regression analysis yielded statistically significant equations for both morbidity and mortality for comparison of both groups. The predictive accuracy of morbidity equation and mortality equation was 83.6% and 94.1%, respectively. Significant risk factors were found to be age, cardiovascular function, respiratory function, hepatic function, renal function, blood test results, endocrine function, nutritional status, duration of operation, intra-operative blood loss, and course of anaesthesia. These factors were all included in the scoring system. There was significant difference in the scores between the patients with and without postoperative complications, between the patients who died and those who survived with complications, and between the patients who died and those who survived without complications. Conclusion: Our study validates the main perioperative complications of surgery for perforation peritonitis and influencing and non-influencing risk

  7. Risk scoring systems for adults admitted to the emergency department: a systematic review

    Knudsen Torben

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients referred to a medical admission unit (MAU represent a broad spectrum of disease severity. In the interest of allocating resources to those who might potentially benefit most from clinical interventions, several scoring systems have been proposed as a triaging tool. Even though most scoring systems are not meant to be used on an individual level, they can support the more inexperienced doctors and nurses in assessing the risk of deterioration of their patients. We therefore performed a systematic review on the level of evidence of literature on scoring systems developed or validated in the MAU. We hypothesized that existing scoring systems would have a low level of evidence and only few systems would have been externally validated. Methods We conducted a systematic search using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, according to the PRISMA guidelines, on scoring systems developed to assess medical patients at admission. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit. Studies derived for only a single or few diagnoses were excluded. The ability to identify patients at risk (discriminatory power and agreement between observed and predicted outcome (calibration along with the method of derivation and validation (application on a new cohort were extracted. Results We identified 1,655 articles. Thirty were selected for further review and 10 were included in this review. Eight systems used vital signs as variables and two relied mostly on blood tests. Nine systems were derived using regression analysis and eight included patients admitted to a MAU. Six systems used in-hospital mortality as their primary endpoint. Discriminatory power was specified for eight of the scoring systems and was acceptable or better in five of these. The calibration was only specified for four scoring systems. In none of the studies impact analysis or inter-observer reliability were analyzed. None of the

  8. Risk scoring systems for adults admitted to the emergency department: a systematic review

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Folkestad, Lars; Clausen, Nicola G;

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Patients referred to a medical admission unit (MAU) represent a broad spectrum of disease severity. In the interest of allocating resources to those who might potentially benefit most from clinical interventions, several scoring systems have been proposed as a triaging tool...... scoring systems developed to assess medical patients at admission. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit. Studies derived for only a single or few diagnoses were excluded. The ability to identify patients at risk (discriminatory power) and agreement...

  9. Derivation and Validation of a New Cardiovascular Risk Score for People With Type 2 Diabetes

    Elley, C. Raina; Robinson, Elizabeth; Kenealy, Tim; Bramley, Dale; Drury, Paul L

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To derive a 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equation from usual-care data that is appropriate for people with type 2 diabetes from a wide range of ethnic groups, variable glycemic control, and high rates of albuminuria in New Zealand. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This prospective open-cohort study used primary-care data from 36,127 people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD to derive a CVD equation using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Data from 12,626 peop...

  10. Population-standardized genetic risk score: the SNP-based method of choice for inherited risk assessment of prostate cancer

    Carly A Conran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Several different approaches are available to clinicians for determining prostate cancer (PCa risk. The clinical validity of various PCa risk assessment methods utilizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs has been established; however, these SNP-based methods have not been compared. The objective of this study was to compare the three most commonly used SNP-based methods for PCa risk assessment. Participants were men (n = 1654 enrolled in a prospective study of PCa development. Genotypes of 59 PCa risk-associated SNPs were available in this cohort. Three methods of calculating SNP-based genetic risk scores (GRSs were used for the evaluation of individual disease risk such as risk allele count (GRS-RAC, weighted risk allele count (GRS-wRAC, and population-standardized genetic risk score (GRS-PS. Mean GRSs were calculated, and performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC and positive predictive value (PPV. All SNP-based methods were found to be independently associated with PCa (all P 0.05 for comparisons between the three methods, and all three SNP-based methods had a significantly higher AUC than family history (all P < 0.05. Results from this study suggest that while the three most commonly used SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa at the population level, GRS-PS is the method of choice for risk assessment at the individual level because its value (where 1.0 represents average population risk can be easily interpreted regardless of the number of risk-associated SNPs used in the calculation.

  11. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Satoshi Nagano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

  12. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

    Jane Maryam Rondina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  13. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  14. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  15. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  16. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Boscarino JA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  17. Risk prediction models for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy using prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score

    Xin-Hai Hu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many computer models for predicting the risk of prostate cancer have been developed including for prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR. However, models for individual BCR free probability at individual time-points after a BCR free period are rare. Follow-up data from 1656 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP were used to develop an artificial neural network (ANN to predict BCR and to compare it with a logistic regression (LR model using clinical and pathologic parameters, prostate-specific antigen (PSA, margin status (R0/1, pathological stage (pT, and Gleason Score (GS. For individual BCR prediction at any given time after operation, additional ANN, and LR models were calculated every 6 months for up to 7.5 years of follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC for the ANN (0.754 and LR models (0.755 calculated immediately following LRP, were larger than that for GS (AUC: 0.715; P = 0.0015 and 0.001, pT or PSA (AUC: 0.619; P always <0.0001 alone. The GS predicted the BCR better than PSA (P = 0.0001, but there was no difference between the ANN and LR models (P = 0.39. Our ANN and LR models predicted individual BCR risk from radical prostatectomy for up to 10 years postoperative. ANN and LR models equally and significantly improved the prediction of BCR compared with PSA and GS alone. When the GS and ANN output values are combined, a more accurate BCR prediction is possible, especially in high-risk patients with GS ≥7.

  18. Risk prediction models for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy using prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score.

    Hu, Xin-Hai; Cammann, Henning; Meyer, Hellmuth-A; Jung, Klaus; Lu, Hong-Biao; Leva, Natalia; Magheli, Ahmed; Stephan, Carsten; Busch, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    Many computer models for predicting the risk of prostate cancer have been developed including for prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR). However, models for individual BCR free probability at individual time-points after a BCR free period are rare. Follow-up data from 1656 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) were used to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict BCR and to compare it with a logistic regression (LR) model using clinical and pathologic parameters, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), margin status (R0/1), pathological stage (pT), and Gleason Score (GS). For individual BCR prediction at any given time after operation, additional ANN, and LR models were calculated every 6 months for up to 7.5 years of follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the ANN (0.754) and LR models (0.755) calculated immediately following LRP, were larger than that for GS (AUC: 0.715; P = 0.0015 and 0.001), pT or PSA (AUC: 0.619; P always <0.0001) alone. The GS predicted the BCR better than PSA (P = 0.0001), but there was no difference between the ANN and LR models (P = 0.39). Our ANN and LR models predicted individual BCR risk from radical prostatectomy for up to 10 years postoperative. ANN and LR models equally and significantly improved the prediction of BCR compared with PSA and GS alone. When the GS and ANN output values are combined, a more accurate BCR prediction is possible, especially in high-risk patients with GS ≥7. PMID:25130472

  19. Necrotizing soft-tissue infection: Laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing soft tissue infections score

    Madhuri Kulkarni; G S Vijay Kumar; G S Sowmya; C P Madhu; S R Ramya

    2014-01-01

    Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTI) can be rapidly progressive and polymicrobial in etiology. Establishing the element of necrotizing infection poses a clinical challenge. A 64-year-old diabetic patient presented to our hospital with a gangrenous patch on anterior abdominal wall, which progressed to an extensive necrotizing lesion within 1 week. Successive laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing softtissue infections (LRINEC) scores confirmed the necrotizing element. Cultures yielded ...

  20. Paleolithic and Mediterranean Diet Pattern Scores and Risk of Incident, Sporadic Colorectal Adenomas

    Whalen, Kristine A.; McCullough, Marji; Flanders, W. Dana; Hartman, Terryl J.; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M.

    2014-01-01

    The Western dietary pattern is associated with higher risk of colorectal neoplasms. Evolutionary discordance could explain this association. We investigated associations of scores for 2 proposed diet patterns, the “Paleolithic” and the Mediterranean, with incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas in a case-control study of colorectal polyps conducted in Minnesota (1991–1994). Persons with no prior history of colorectal neoplasms completed comprehensive questionnaires prior to elective, outpatien...

  1. Association of Relatives of Hemodialysis Patients with Metabolic Syndrome, Albuminuria and Framingham Risk Score

    Huang, Jiun-Chi; Chen, Szu-Chia; Lin, Ming-Yen; Chang, Jer-Ming; Hwang, Shang-Jyh; Tsai, Jer-Chia; Chen, Hung-Chun

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aim Metabolic syndrome (MetS), albuminuria, and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) are significant predictors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship and clinical significance of these CVD predictors in individuals with a family history of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are unclear. We investigated the association of relatives of hemodialysis (HD) patients with MetS, albuminuria, and the FRS. Methods One hundred and sixty-six relatives of HD patients and 374 ag...

  2. Evaluation of a risk factor scoring model in screening for undiagnosed diabetes in China population*

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Lou, Neng-jun; Zhao, Jia-jun; Zhang, Zhong-wen; Qiu, Lu-lu; Zhou, Ying; Liao, Lin

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population. Methods: A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City, Shandong Province, China were enrolled. Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city. Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were completed by all subjects. Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A, variabl...

  3. Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Patients using Mixtures of Gaussian Process Experts

    Alaa, Ahmed M.; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; Van Der Schaar, Mihaela

    2016-01-01

    We develop a personalized real time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs. Heterogeneity of the patients population is captured via a hierarchical latent class model. The proposed algorithm aims to discover the number of latent classes in the patients population, and train a mixture of Gaussian Process (GP) experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams...

  4. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study

    Cheng Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC. We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005, the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI, the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I, and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed. After adjustment for various lifestyle and dietary factors, greater diet quality scores on the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I—but not on the aMed—showed a significant association with a lower risk of NPC (p-trends, <0.001–0.001. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval comparing the extreme quartiles of the three significant scores were 0.47 (0.32–0.68 (HEI-2005, 0.48 (0.33–0.70 (aHEI, and 0.43 (0.30–0.62 (DQI-I. In gender-stratified analyses, the favorable association remained significant in men but not in women. We found that adherence to the predefined dietary patterns represented by the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I scales predicted a lower risk of NPC in adults from south China, especially in men.

  5. A Scoring Model of the Risk of Costly Arrears at a Microfinance Lender in Bolivia

    Mark Schreiner

    2001-01-01

    Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in statistical models, I find that inexpensive data does indeed have some predictive power. In microfinance, computer models will not replace loan officers, but they can flag the highest risks ...

  6. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael;

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Development of a simple, widely applicable risk score for chronic kidney disease (CKD) allows comparisons of risks or benefits of starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals (ARVs) as part of a treatment regimen. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 18,055 HIV-positive persons from...... the Data on Adverse Drugs (D:A:D) study with >3 estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) >1/1/2004 were included. Persons with use of tenofovir (TDF), atazanavir (ritonavir boosted (ATV/r) and unboosted (ATV)), lopinavir (LPV/r) and other boosted protease inhibitors (bPIs) before baseline (first...

  7. Race-specific genetic risk score is more accurate than nonrace-specific genetic risk score for predicting prostate cancer and high-grade diseases

    Na, Rong; Ye, Dingwei; Qi, Jun; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Helfand, Brian T; Brendler, Charles B; Conran, Carly; Gong, Jian; Wu, Yishuo; Gao, Xu; Chen, Yaqing; Zheng, S Lilly; Mo, Zengnan; Ding, Qiang; Sun, Yinghao; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Genetic risk score (GRS) based on disease risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is an informative tool that can be used to provide inherited information for specific diseases in addition to family history. However, it is still unknown whether only SNPs that are implicated in a specific racial group should be used when calculating GRSs. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of race-specific GRS and nonrace-specific GRS for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) among 1338 patients underwent prostate biopsy in Shanghai, China. A race-specific GRS was calculated with seven PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in East Asians (GRS7), and a nonrace-specific GRS was calculated based on 76 PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in at least one racial group (GRS76). The means of GRS7 and GRS76 were 1.19 and 1.85, respectively, in the study population. Higher GRS7 and GRS76 were independent predictors for PCa and high-grade PCa in univariate and multivariate analyses. GRS7 had a better area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) than GRS76 for discriminating PCa (0.602 vs 0.573) and high-grade PCa (0.603 vs 0.575) but did not reach statistical significance. GRS7 had a better (up to 13% at different cutoffs) positive predictive value (PPV) than GRS76. In conclusion, a race-specific GRS is more robust and has a better performance when predicting PCa in East Asian men than a GRS calculated using SNPs that are not shown to be associated with East Asians. PMID:27140652

  8. Development and validation of a risk score for advanced colorectal adenoma recurrence after endoscopic resection

    Facciorusso, Antonio; Di Maso, Marianna; Serviddio, Gaetano; Vendemiale, Gianluigi; Muscatiello, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop and validate a risk score for advanced colorectal adenoma (ACA) recurrence after endoscopic polypectomy. METHODS: Out of 3360 patients who underwent colon polypectomy at University of Foggia between 2004 and 2008, data of 843 patients with 1155 ACAs was retrospectively reviewed. Surveillance intervals were scheduled by guidelines at 3 years and primary endpoint was considered 3-year ACA recurrence. Baseline clinical parameters and the main features of ACAs were entered into a Cox regression analysis and variables with P < 0.05 in the univariate analysis were then tested as candidate variables into a stepwise Cox regression model (conditional backward selection). The regression coefficients of the Cox regression model were multiplied by 2 and rounded in order to obtain easy to use point numbers facilitating the calculation of the score. To avoid overoptimistic results due to model fitting and evaluation in the same dataset, we performed an internal 10-fold cross-validation by means of bootstrap sampling. RESULTS: Median lesion size was 16 mm (12-23) while median number of adenomas was 2.5 (1-3), whereof the number of ACAs was 1.5 (1-2). At 3 years after polypectomy, recurrence was observed in 229 ACAs (19.8%), of which 157 (13.5%) were metachronous neoplasms and 72 (6.2%) local recurrences. Multivariate analysis, after exclusion of the variable “type of resection” due to its collinearity with other predictive factors, confirmed lesion size, number of ACAs and grade of dysplasia as significantly associated to the primary outcome. The score was then built by multiplying the regression coefficients times 2 and the cut-off point 5 was selected by means of a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis. In particular, 248 patients with 365 ACAs fell in the higher-risk group (score ≥ 5) where 3-year recurrence was detected in 174 ACAs (47.6%) whereas the remaining 595 patients with 690 ACAs were included in the low-risk group (score < 5) where 3

  9. Composite risk scores and composite endpoints in the risk prediction of outcomes in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation. The Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project.

    Banerjee, A; Fauchier, L; Bernard-Brunet, A; Clementy, N; Lip, G Y H

    2014-03-01

    Several validated risk stratification schemes for prediction of ischaemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding are available for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). On the basis for multiple common risk factors for IS/TE and bleeding, it has been suggested that composite risk prediction scores may be more practical and user-friendly than separate scores for bleeding and IS/TE. In a long-term prospective hospital registry of anticoagulated patients with newly diagnosed AF, we compared the predictive value of existing risk prediction scores as well as composite risk scores, and also compared these risk scoring systems using composite endpoints. Endpoint 1 was the simple composite of IS and major bleeds. Endpoint 2 was based on a composite of IS plus intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Endpoint 3 was based on weighted coefficients for IS/TE and ICH. Endpoint 4 was a composite of stroke, cardiovascular death, TE and major bleeding. The incremental predictive value of these scores over CHADS2 (as reference) for composite endpoints was assessed using c-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Of 8,962 eligible individuals, 3,607 (40.2%) had NVAF and were on OAC at baseline. There were no statistically significant differences between the c-statistics of the various risk scores, compared with the CHADS2 score, regardless of the endpoint. For the various risk scores and various endpoints, NRI and IDI did not show significant improvement (≥1%), compared with the CHADS2 score. In conclusion, composite risk scores did not significantly improve risk prediction of endpoints in patients with NVAF, regardless of how endpoints were defined. This would support individualised prediction of IS/TE and bleeding separately using different separate risk prediction tools, and not the use of composite scores or endpoints for everyday 'real world' clinical practice, to guide decisions on

  10. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D’Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  11. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    Koontz, Bridget F., E-mail: bridget.koontz@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Tsivian, Matvey [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Mouraviev, Vladimir [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Sun, Leon [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Vujaskovic, Zeljko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Moul, Judd [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Lee, W. Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  12. Weak prediction power of the Framingham Risk Score for coronary artery disease in nonagenarians.

    Josef Yayan

    Full Text Available Coronary artery disease (CAD is caused by an acute myocardial infarction and is still feared as a life-threatening heart disease worldwide. In order to identify patients at high risk for CAD, previous studies have proposed various risk assessment scores for the prevention of CAD. The most commonly used risk assessment score for CAD worldwide is the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. The FRS is used for middle-aged people; hence, its appropriateness has not been demonstrated to predict the likelihood of CAD occurrence in very elderly people. This article examines the possible predictive value of FRS for CAD in very elderly people over 90 years of age.Data on all patients over 90 years of age who received a cardiac catheter were collected from hospital charts from the Department of Internal Medicine, Saarland University Medical Center, and HELIOS Hospital Wuppertal, Witten/Herdecke University Medical Center, Germany, within a study period from 2004 to 2013. The FRSs and cardiovascular risk profiles of patients over 90 years of age with and without CAD after cardiac catheterization were compared.One hundred and seventy-five (91.15%, mean age 91.51±1.80 years, 74 females [42.29%]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87-0.95 of a total 192 of the very elderly patients were found to have CAD. Based on the results of our study, the FRS seems to provide weak predictive ability for CAD in very elderly people (P = 0.3792.We found weak prediction power of FRS for CAD in nonagenarians.

  13. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients

    Lee, Ing-Kit; Liu, Jien-Wei; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Chen, Yi-Chun; Tsai, Ching-Yen; Huang, Shi-Yu; Lin, Chun-Yu; Huang, Chung-Hao

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD) (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment). We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days) and 2 (dengue illness >4 days). In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from −2 to +6 points) showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771–0.924). The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points), significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756–0.963), with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%). The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825–0.983) and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833–1.0) in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts) were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  14. Puntaje de detección de riesgo nutricional para mortalidad en pacientes críticamente enfermos: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research Nutritional score risk for mortality in critically ill patients: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research

    A. M. Marín Ramírez

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: El objetivo principal del estudio fue la validación de un puntaje en la valoración nutricional al momento de llegar a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI con o sin enfermedad previa, con el fin de establecer riesgos nutricionales de muerte desde el ingreso. Diseño: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, prospectivo, observacional de carácter transversal de abril del 2004 a diciembre del 2006. Ámbito: El estudio fue realizado en UCI. Pacientes y participantes: Para el estudio se lograron encuestar 228 pacientes. Las encuestas eran realizadas al familiar cercano que vivía con el paciente, en aquel momento que el familiar mostrar no convivencia con el paciente y/o desconocimiento de su patrón de ingesta de alimentos durante el diario la encuesta era descartada. Se seleccionaron al azar con patologías críticas (sepsis, trauma, pacientes neurocríticos, pacientes médicos, obstétricas críticas, etc. en dos unidades de cuidados intensivos. Intervenciones: Interrogatorio a familiares. Variables de interés: El puntaje escogido fue el Nutritional Score Risk (NSR el cual es elaborado para pacientes mayores de 65 años, puntaje que es ahora modificado para ser utilizado en las unidades de cuidados intensivos en forma práctica, viable, rápida, clara y útil en la obtención de resultados. Resultados: Nuestro estudio demostró que las alteraciones del NSR se pueden observar en todas las edades, establecido por no haber una correlación directa entre la edad y el NSR encontrado (r = 0,15, p = 0,018, además se encontró que el sufrir enfermedades crónicas que alteren las condiciones de ingesta alimentaria adecuada es un parámetro aislado significativo para incrementar la probabilidad de muerte al ingreso a la UCI (p = 0,002. Conclusiones: El NSR mostró que pacientes con un puntaje alto al ingresar por alguna patología aguda se encuentran en riesgo nutricional de morir.Aim: The aim of our study has been applying a nutritional score

  15. Predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease in Men and Women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney® Scores

    Coupland Carol

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic Kidney Disease is a major cause of morbidity and interventions now exist which can reduce risk. We sought to develop and validate two new risk algorithms (the QKidney® Scores for estimating (a the individual 5 year risk of moderate-severe CKD and (b the individual 5 year risk of developing End Stage Kidney Failure in a primary care population. Methods We conducted a prospective open cohort study using data from 368 QResearch® general practices to develop the scores. We validated the scores using two separate sets of practices - 188 separate QResearch® practices and 364 practices contributing to the THIN database. We studied 775,091 women and 799,658 men aged 35-74 years in the QResearch® derivation cohort, who contributed 4,068,643 and 4,121,926 person-years of observation respectively. We had two main outcomes (a moderate-severe CKD (defined as the first evidence of CKD based on the earliest of any of the following: kidney transplant; kidney dialysis; diagnosis of nephropathy; persistent proteinuria; or glomerular filtration rate of We derived separate risk equations for men and women. We calculated measures of calibration and discrimination using the two separate validation cohorts. Results Our final model for moderate-severe CKD included: age, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking, BMI, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, congestive cardiac failure; peripheral vascular disease, NSAID use and family history of kidney disease. In addition, it included SLE and kidney stones in women. The final model for End Stage Kidney Failure was similar except it did not include NSAID use. Each risk prediction algorithms performed well across all measures in both validation cohorts. For the THIN cohort, the model to predict moderate-severe CKD explained 56.38% of the total variation in women and 57.49% for men. The D statistic values were high with values of 2.33 for

  16. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery

  17. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Silvia Bueno Garofallo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP and EuroSCORE (ES in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP.Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG, 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74, and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80. The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99 and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79. Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  18. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia, E-mail: veraportal.pesquisa@gmail.com [Post-Graduation Program in Health Sciences: Cardiology, Instituto de Cardiologia/Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-06-15

    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  19. Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

    Bates Tom

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

  20. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  1. THE IMPACT OF SEVERITY OF DIABETIC RETINOPATHY IN CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT USING FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE - A PILOT STUDY

    Nidhi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR is the most common micro vascular complications of diabetes, estimated to affect approximately 100 million people worldwide, while cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in individuals with type II diabetes. There is limited Indian data reporting the association of Diabetic retinopathy and its severity with CVD. AIM : To study the relation between the severity of DR and risk of CVD in cen tral Indian subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS : The subjects consisted of 50 patients with Diabetes mellitus type II having varying grades of diabetic retinopathy attending eye OPD of a tertiary care hospital in central India. 10 year risk of developing CVD was estimated using the Framingham Risk Score. RESULTS : The number of subjects with an increased risk of developing CVD increased with advancing age (28.57% in 40 - 49 years to 61 .53% in > 60 years age group. The risk of CVD was slightly more in males (55. 55% compared to females (43.47%. Out of the 30 patients having sight threatening diabetic retinopathy, 13 had low risk of developing CVD while 17 had high risk of developing CVD. The prevalence of sight threatening retinopathy was more in the high risk group (56.67% when compared to the low - risk group (40%. DISCUSSION : We found that more subjects having high risk of developing CVD had sight - threatening DR compared to those having low risk. CONCLUSION : Diabetic retinopathy may contribute to CVD risk in Indian population too. A careful cardiovascular assessment and follow - up may be required in individuals with diabetic retinopathy, using a larger sample size

  2. The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk

    Andersen, Shaneda Warren; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Hampton, John M.; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G.; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E.; Titus, Linda J.; Newcomb, Polly A.

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1484 breast cancer cases and 1307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted ...

  3. Air pollution and diabetes association: Modification by type 2 diabetes genetic risk score.

    Eze, Ikenna C; Imboden, Medea; Kumar, Ashish; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Stolz, Daiana; Gerbase, Margaret W; Künzli, Nino; Pons, Marco; Kronenberg, Florian; Schindler, Christian; Probst-Hensch, Nicole

    2016-09-01

    Exposure to ambient air pollution (AP) exposure has been linked to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. Evidence on the impact of T2D genetic variants on AP susceptibility is lacking. Compared to single variants, joint genetic variants contribute substantially to disease risk. We investigated the modification of AP and diabetes association by a genetic risk score (GRS) covering 63 T2D genes in 1524 first follow-up participants of the Swiss cohort study on air pollution and lung and heart diseases in adults. Genome-wide data and covariates were available from a nested asthma case-control study design. AP was estimated as 10-year mean residential particulate matter air pollution through alterations in insulin sensitivity. These results need confirmation in diabetes cohort consortia. PMID:27281273

  4. Automated texture scoring for assessing breast cancer masking risk in full field digital mammography

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J; Petersen, Kersten; Lilholm, Martin;

    PURPOSE: The goal of this work is to develop a method to identify women at high risk for having breast cancer that is easily missed in regular mammography screening. Such a method will provide a rationale for selecting women for adjunctive screening. It goes beyond current risk assessment models...... five-fold cross validation. To assess the independency of the texture scores of breast density, density was determined for each image using Volpara. RESULTS: The odds ratios for interval cancer were 1.59 (95%CI: 0.76-3.32), 2.07 (1.02-4.20), and 3.14 (1.60-6.17) for quartile 2, 3 and 4 respectively...... with the risk of having a breast cancer that is missed in regular mammography screening. As such it offers opportunities to further enhance personalized breast cancer screening....

  5. Relationship between Sarcopenic Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease Risk as Estimated by the Framingham Risk Score

    Kim, Jeong-Hyeon; Cho, Jung Jin; Park, Yong Soon

    2015-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the association between sarcopenic obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Korean adults (n=3,320; ≥40 yr) who participated in the 5th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2010. The appendicular skeletal muscle mass divided by body weight was calculated for each participant; participants with values

  6. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    Zannad, Faiez

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  7. GENETIC ADDICTION RISK SCORE (GARS ANALYSIS: EXPLORATORY DEVELOPMENT OF POLYMORPHIC RISK ALLELES IN POLY-DRUG ADDICTED MALES

    Kenneth Blum et al

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a need to classify patients at genetic risk for drug seeking behavior prior to or upon entry to residential and or non-residential chemical dependency programs. We have determined based on a literature review, that there are seven risk alleles associated with six candidate genes that were studied in this patient population of recovering poly-drug abusers. To determine risk severity of these 26 patients we calculated the percentage of prevalence of the risk alleles and provided a severity score based on percentage of these alleles. Subjects carry the following risk alleles: DRD2=A1; SLC6A3 (DAT =10R; DRD4=3R or 7R; 5HTTlRP = L or LA; MAO= 3R; and COMT=G. As depicted in table 2 low severity (LS = 1-36%; Moderate Severity =37-50%, and High severity = 51-100%. We studied two distinct ethnic populations group 1 consisted of 16 male Caucasian psycho stimulant addicts and group 2 consisted of 10 Chinese heroin addicted males. Based on this model the 16 subjects tested have at least one risk allele or 100%. Out of the 16 subjects we found 50% (8 HS; 31% (5 MS; and 19% LS (3 subjects. These scores are then converted to a fraction and then represented as a Genetic Addiction Risk Score (GARS whereby we found the average GARS to be: 0.28 low severity, 0.44 moderate severity and 0.58 high severity respectively. Therefore, using this GARS we found that 81% of the patients were at moderate to high risk for addictive behavior. Of particular interest we found that 56% of the subjects carried the DRD2 A1 allele (9/16. Out of the 9 Chinese heroin addicts [one patient not genotyped] (group 2 we found 11% (1 HS; 56% (5 MS; and 33% LS (3 subjects. These scores are then converted to a fraction and then represented as GARS whereby we found the average GARS to be: 0.28 Low Severity; 0.43 moderate severity and 0.54 high severity respectively. Therefore, using GARS we found that 67% of the patients were at moderate to high risk for addictive behavior. Of

  8. A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX

    Make BJ

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory

  9. A Risk Score to Predict Hypertension in Primary Care Settings in Rural India

    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, P. Sankara; Razum, Oliver; Thrift, Amanda Gay; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2015-01-01

    We used the data of 297 participants (15–64 years old) from a cohort study (2003–2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive va...

  10. A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

    Patumanond J

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

  11. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  12. Evaluation of risk scores derived from the health family tree program.

    Jiang, Yuling; Staes, Catherine J; Adams, Ted D; Hunt, Steven C

    2009-01-01

    Family health history is an independent risk factor for certain diseases. The Health Family Tree (HFT) was developed and used to document and assess family health history from the families of high school students since 1980. While the risk algorithm of the HFT was initially validated, 20 years of use as a public health tool in the community provides an extremely large dataset for more rigorous validation. A retrospective cohort study was used with the events before the "cut-off" year as the baseline and the events after the "cut-off" year as the follow-up. Baseline data were used in the algorithm to calculate the Family History Score (FHS). Cox proportional hazards model was used to test the dose-response nature of the FHS for predicting incident events. An FHS >/=1 was determined to be a significant predictor for future development of diabetes, myocardial infarction, and early onset of myocardial infarction. PMID:20351866

  13. Predictive and Incremental Validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide Scores with Male and Female Jail Inmates

    Hastings, Mark E.; Krishnan, Shilpa; Tangney, June P.; Stuewig, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the predictive and incremental validity of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores in a sample of 328 male and 145 female jail inmates held on felony charges. Significant gender differences were observed in VRAG item and total score means, as well as in correlations between the VRAG and concurrent measures of aggression.…

  14. Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

    Rose, Sherri

    2013-03-01

    Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance. PMID:23364879

  15. Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet pattern scores and risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas.

    Whalen, Kristine A; McCullough, Marji; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M

    2014-12-01

    The Western dietary pattern is associated with higher risk of colorectal neoplasms. Evolutionary discordance could explain this association. We investigated associations of scores for 2 proposed diet patterns, the "Paleolithic" and the Mediterranean, with incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas in a case-control study of colorectal polyps conducted in Minnesota (1991-1994). Persons with no prior history of colorectal neoplasms completed comprehensive questionnaires prior to elective, outpatient endoscopy; of these individuals, 564 were identified as cases and 1,202 as endoscopy-negative controls. An additional group of community controls frequency-matched on age and sex (n = 535) was also recruited. Both diet scores were calculated for each participant and categorized into quintiles, and associations were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios comparing persons in the highest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores relative to the lowest quintiles were, respectively, 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.02; Ptrend = 0.02) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.03; Ptrend = 0.05) when comparing cases with endoscopy-negative controls and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.26; Ptrend = 0.14) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.53, 1.11; Ptrend = 0.13) when comparing cases with community controls. These findings suggest that greater adherence to the Paleolithic diet pattern and greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet pattern may be similarly associated with lower risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas. PMID:25326623

  16. Evaluating the discriminative power of multi-trait genetic risk scores for type 2 diabetes in a northern Swedish population

    Fontaine-Bisson, B; Renström, Frida; Rolandsson, Olov; Payne, F.; Hallmans, Göran; Barroso, I.; Franks, Paul W.

    2010-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We determined whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetogenic traits improve the discriminative power of a type 2 diabetes genetic risk score. METHODS: Participants (n = 2,751) were genotyped for 73 SNPs previously associated with type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose/insulin concentrations, obesity or lipid levels, from which five genetic risk scores (one for each of the four traits and one combining all SNPs) were computed. Type 2 diabetes ...

  17. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  18. Association of relatives of hemodialysis patients with metabolic syndrome, albuminuria and Framingham Risk Score.

    Jiun-Chi Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIM: Metabolic syndrome (MetS, albuminuria, and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS are significant predictors for cardiovascular disease (CVD. However, the relationship and clinical significance of these CVD predictors in individuals with a family history of end-stage renal disease (ESRD are unclear. We investigated the association of relatives of hemodialysis (HD patients with MetS, albuminuria, and the FRS. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-six relatives of HD patients and 374 age- and sex- matched community controls were enrolled. MetS was defined using the Adult Treatment Panel III for Asians. Albuminuria was defined as urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g. CVD risk was evaluated by the FRS. RESULTS: A significantly higher prevalence of MetS (19.9% vs. 12.5%, P = 0.026, albuminuria (12.7% vs. 5.1%, P = 0.002 and high FRS risk ≥ 10% of 10-year risk (15.7% vs. 8.5%, P = 0.013 was found in relatives of HD patients compared to their counterpart controls. In multivariate analysis, being relatives of HD patients (vs. controls was an independent determinant for MetS (odds ratio [OR], 1.785; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.045 to 3.050, albuminuria (OR, 2.891; 95% CI, 1.431 to 5.841, and high FRS risk (OR, 1.863; 95% CI, 1.015 to 3.418. Higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR, 1.034; 95% CI, 1.017 to 1.052 and betel nut chewing (OR, 13.994; 95% CI, 3.384 to 57.871 were independent determinants for having a high FRS risk in relatives of HD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Being relatives of HD patients was independently associated with MetS, albuminuria and high FRS risk, suggesting family members of ESRD patients may have higher CVD risks through the interactions of renal risk factors. Proactive surveillance of these CVD predictors and preventive strategies should be targeted to this high-risk population.

  19. Novel risk scores for survival and intracranial failure in patients treated with radiosurgery alone to melanoma brain metastases

    Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone is an increasingly common treatment strategy for brain metastases. However, existing prognostic tools for overall survival (OS) were developed using cohorts of patients treated predominantly with approaches other than SRS alone. Therefore, we devised novel risk scores for OS and distant brain failure (DF) for melanoma brain metastases (MBM) treated with SRS alone. We retrospectively reviewed 86 patients treated with SRS alone for MBM from 2009-2014. OS and DF were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards modeling identified clinical risk factors. Risk scores were created based on weighted regression coefficients. OS scores range from 0-10 (0 representing best OS), and DF risk scores range from 0-5 (0 representing lowest risk of DF). Predictive power was evaluated using c-index statistics. Bootstrapping with 200 resamples tested model stability. The median OS was 8.1 months from SRS, and 54 (70.1 %) patients had DF at a median of 3.3 months. Risk scores for OS were predicated on performance status, extracranial disease (ED) status, number of lesions, and gender. Median OS for the low-risk group (0-3 points) was not reached. For the moderate-risk (4-6 points) and high-risk (6.5-10) groups, median OS was 7.6 months and 2.4 months, respectively (p < .0001). Scores for DF were predicated on performance status, ED status, and number of lesions. Median time to DF for the low-risk group (0 points) was not reached. For the moderate-risk (1-2 points) and high-risk (3-5 points) groups, time to DF was 4.8 and 2.0 months, respectively (p < .0001). The novel scores were more predictive (c-index = 0.72) than melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment or RTOG recursive partitioning analysis tools (c-index = 0.66 and 0.57, respectively). We devised novel risk scores for MBM treated with SRS alone. These scores have implications for prognosis and treatment strategy selection (SRS versus whole-brain radiotherapy)

  20. A genetic risk score of 45 coronary artery disease risk variants associates with increased risk of myocardial infarction in 6041 Danish individuals

    Krarup, N T; Borglykke, A; Allin, K H;

    2015-01-01

    CAD. METHODS: Genotype was available from 6041 Danes. An unweighted GRS was constructed by making a summated score of the 45 known genetic CAD risk variants. Registries provided information (mean follow-up = 11.6 years) on CAD (n = 374) and MI (n = 124) events. Cox proportional hazard estimates with......BACKGROUND: In Europeans, 45 genetic risk variants for coronary artery disease (CAD) have been identified in genome-wide association studies. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) of these variants to estimate the effect on incidence and clinical predictability of myocardial infarction (MI) and...... age as time scale was adjusted for sex, BMI, type 2 diabetes mellitus and smoking status. Analyses were also stratified either by sex or median age (below or above 45 years of age). We estimated GRS contribution to MI prediction by assessing net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated...

  1. The coronary calcium score is a more accurate predictor of significant coronary stenosis than conventional risk factors in symptomatic patients

    Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y;

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: In this retrospective study we assessed the predictive value of the coronary calcium score for significant (>50%) stenosis relative to conventional risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated 5515 symptomatic patients from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the USA. All had...... predictor of significant stenosis to be male gender (B=1.07) followed by diabetes mellitus (B=0.70) smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, family history of CAD and age but not obesity. When the log transformed CAC score was included, it became the most powerful predictor (B=1.25), followed by male...... gender (B=0.48), diabetes, smoking, family history and age but hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension lost significance. The CAC score is a more accurate predictor of >50% stenosis than risk factors regardless of the means of assessment of stenosis. The sensitivity of risk factors, CAC score...

  2. Demographic determinants of risk,colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease

    Mark Golder; Irina Chis Ster; Pratusha Babu; Amita Sharma; Muhammad Bayat; Abdulkadir Farah

    2011-01-01

    AIM:To investigate associations between ethnicity, age and sex and the risk,colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease (DD). METHODS:Barium enemas were examined in 1000 patients: 410 male,590 female; 760 whites,62 Asians,44 black africans (BAs),and 134 other blacks (OBs).Risks and diverticula density of left-sided DD (LSDD) and rightsided- component DD (RSCDD = right-sided DD + right and left DD + Pan-DD) were compared using logistic regression.RESULTS:Four hundred and forty-seven patients had DD (322 LSDD and 125 RSCDD).Adjusted risks:(1) LSDD:each year increase in age increased the odds by 6% (95% CI:5-8,SE:0.8%,P < 0.001); Asians: odds ratio (OR):0.23 (95% CI:0.10-0.53,SE:0.1,P ≤ 0.001) and OBs:OR:0.25 (95% CI:0.14-0.43,SE:0.07, P ≤ 0.001) appeared protected vs Whites; (2) RSCDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 4% (95% CI:2-6,SE:1%,P < 0.001); females were 0.60 times (95% CI:0.40-0.90,SE:0.12,P = 0.01) less likely than males to have RSCDD; BAs were 3.51 times (95% CI:1.70-7.24,SE:1.30,P < 0.001) more likely than Whites to have RSCDD; and (3) DD density scores: each year increase in age increased the odds of highdensity scores by 4% (95% CI:1-6,SE:1%,P < 0.001); RSCDD was 2.77 times (95% CI:1.39-3.32,SE:0.67,P < 0.001) more likely to be of high density than LSDD. No further significant differences were found in the adjusted models.CONCLUSION:Right colonic DD might be more common and has higher diverticula density in the west than previously reported.BAs appear predisposed to DD, whereas other ethnic differences appear conserved following migration.

  3. Could symptoms and risk factors diagnose COPD? Development of a Diagnosis Score for COPD

    Salameh P

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Pascale Salameh,1 Georges Khayat,2 Mirna Waked31Faculties of Pharmacy and of Public Health, Lebanese University, Beirut, 2Faculty of Medicine, Hôtel Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut and Saint Joseph University, Beirut, 3Faculty of Medicine, Saint George Hospital, Beirut and Balamand University, Beirut, LebanonBackground: Diagnosing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD without spirometry is still a challenge. Our objective in this study was to develop a scale for diagnosis of COPD.Methods: Data were taken from a cross-sectional epidemiological study. After reducing chronic respiratory symptoms, a logistic regression was used to select risk factors for and symptoms of COPD. The rounded coefficients generated a Diagnosis Score for COPD (DS-COPD, which was dichotomized and differentiated between COPD and other individuals with respiratory symptoms.Results: We constructed a tool for COPD diagnosis with good properties, comprising 12 items. The area under the curve was 0.849; the positive predictive value was 76% if the DS-COPD was >20 and the negative predictive value was 97% if the DS-COPD was <10. A DS-COPD of 10–19 represented a zone mostly suggestive of no COPD (77%. The score was also inversely correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity.Conclusion: In this study, a tool for diagnosis of COPD was constructed with good properties for use in the epidemiological setting, mainly in cases of low or high scoring. It would be of particular interest in the primary care setting, where spirometry may not be available. Prospective studies and application in clinical settings would be necessary to validate this scale further.Keywords: diagnosis, scale, development, spirometry

  4. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  5. Computed Tomography Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring Review of Evidence Base and Cost-effectiveness in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

    Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Morris, Pamela B.

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk factor-scoring algorithms may fall short in identifying asymptomatic individuals who will subsequently suffer a coronary event. It is generally thought that evaluation of the extent of the atherosclerotic plaque and total plaque burden can improve cardiovascular risk stratificati

  6. High risk in atrial fibrillation following an ablation procedure: the wide usefulness of the CHADS(2) score.

    Fauchier, Laurent; Taillandier, Sophie; Clementy, Nicolas

    2012-09-01

    Evaluation of: Chao TF, Ambrose K, Tsao HM et al. Relationship between the CHADS(2) score and risk of very late recurrences after catheter ablation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Heart Rhythm 9(8), 1185-1191 (2012). Limited data are available on the predictors of adverse events and recurrences in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation. In a retrospective analysis of 238 patients with paroxysmal AF treated with catheter ablation, it was found that the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >75 years, diabetes and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack (CHADS(2)) score was an independent predictor of AF recurrences. Moreover, among patients without recurrences at 2 years post-ablation, future recurrence rate during the subsequent follow-up was 64% in those with a CHADS(2) score of less than three, while it was only 3% in patients with a CHADS(2) score of zero. Patients with a higher CHADS(2) score have a different substrate, a more marked disease in the atrium and this may explain the higher rate of recurrence observed after AF ablation. Several more complex scores are available to separately identify the risk of different events in AF: stroke and embolic events, bleeding events, AF recurrences and progression to more sustained forms of AF. Whether it is a better strategy to use the simple CHADS(2) score to rapidly identify a global risk of all future events in AF more widely remains to be determined. PMID:23013122

  7. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn;

    2013-01-01

    Background: The European Heart SCORE model constitutes the basis for national guidelines for primary prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in several European countries. The model estimates individuals' 10-year CVD mortality risks from age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...... re-estimated the cause-specific risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, and secondly we incorporated non-CVD mortality. Finally, non-CVD mortality was allowed to also depend on smoking status, and not only age and sex. From the models, we estimated CVD-specific and all-cause 10-year mortality risk...

  8. Postpartum thromboembolism: Severe events might be preventable using a new risk score model

    Pelle G Lindqvist

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Pelle G Lindqvist1,3, Jelena Torsson2, Åsa Almqvist1, Ola Björgell21Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology; 2Radiology, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; 3Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Karolinska Hospital, Huddinge, SwedenBackground: Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism (VTE is a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. A new risk assessment model for VTE in relation to pregnancy has been introduced in Sweden. We wished to determine the proportion of preventable VTE cases if the model had been in use and make a brief cost-benefit analysis.Methods: A hospital-based retrospective case-control study of all postpartum thromboembolic instances of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolisms during a 16-year period. Large anamnestic risk factors at the time of delivery were assessed. We correlated the findings with the new Swedish guidelines for thromboprophylaxis.Results: We found 37 cases of postpartum VTE during the study period. Nineteen of all VTE cases (51% and eight out of eleven of cases of pulmonary embolism (73% had two or more large anamnestic risk factors, ie, they would have been subjected to thromboprophylaxis if the new guidelines had been used. The cost of each preventable VTE was lower than treating a VTE.Conclusion: Approximately one-half of postpartum VTE cases and 70% of pulmonary emboli cases have at least two large risk factors and might be preventable using the new algorithm. From the perspective of the health care system the new recommendations appears to be cost-effective.Keywords: thromboprophylaxis, low molecular weight heparin, scoring system, health care financing, ultrasonography, phlebography

  9. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    Dolores Ramírez-Prado

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]. Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049. After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department.

  10. Use of ABCD2 risk scoring system to determine the short-term stroke risk in patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack

    Objective: To determine the 3-day stroke risk of patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack, and to evaluate the predictive value of ABCD2 (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) score for these patients. Methods: The prospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosis of transient ischaemic attack who were divided into low (0-3 points), medium (4-5 points) and high (6-7 points) risk groups according to their ABCD2 scores. The sensitivity of the scoring system on estimation of the risk of stroke in 3 days was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve. SPSS 15 was used for data analysis. Results: Of the 64 patients in the study, none of the low-risk group had stroke. Stroke was present in 4 of 33 (12.12%) medium-risk patients, while there were 4 in 18 (22.22%) in the high-risk group. Sensitivity and specificity of each ABCD2 score for 3rd day stroke risk was calculated. In the receiver operating curve generated by these calculations, the c statistics was determined as 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.86; p<0.01) and the most appropriate cut-off score to dichotomise the study group was determined as 4. Conclusions: In transient ischaemic attack patients with an ABCD2 score of four or higher had a markedly increased short-term stroke risk, while those with a lower score were quite safe. It is appropriate to hospitalise patients with a score of four or more and investigate for underlying cause and initiate treatment. (author)

  11. An Alzheimer’s Disease Genetic Risk Score Predicts Longitudinal Thinning of Hippocampal Complex Subregions in Healthy Older Adults

    Mahmood, Zanjbeel; Lau, Edward P.; Karacozoff, Alexandra M.; Small, Gary W.; Bookheimer, Susan Y.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Variants at 21 genetic loci have been associated with an increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). An important unresolved question is whether multiple genetic risk factors can be combined to increase the power to detect changes in neuroimaging biomarkers for AD. We acquired high-resolution structural images of the hippocampus in 66 healthy, older human subjects. For 45 of these subjects, longitudinal 2-year follow-up data were also available. We calculated an additive AD genetic risk score for each participant and contrasted this with a weighted risk score (WRS) approach. Each score included APOE (apolipoprotein E), CLU (clusterin), PICALM (phosphatidylinositol binding clathrin assembly protein), and family history of AD. Both unweighted risk score (URS) and WRS correlated strongly with the percentage change in thickness across the whole hippocampal complex (URS: r = −0.40; p = 0.003; WRS: r = −0.25, p = 0.048), driven by a strong relationship to entorhinal cortex thinning (URS: r = −0.35; p = 0.009; WRS: r = −0.35, p = 0.009). By contrast, at baseline the risk scores showed no relationship to thickness in any hippocampal complex subregion. These results provide compelling evidence that polygenic AD risk scores may be especially sensitive to structural change over time in regions affected early in AD, like the hippocampus and adjacent entorhinal cortex. This work also supports the paradigm of studying genetic risk for disease in healthy volunteers. Together, these findings will inform clinical trial design by supporting the idea that genetic prescreening in healthy control subjects can be useful to maximize the ability to detect an effect on a longitudinal neuroimaging endpoint, like hippocampal complex cortical thickness.

  12. A 5-year retrospective clinical study of the Dentium implants

    Lee, Jeong-Yol; Park, Hyo-Jin; Kim, Jong-Eun; Choi, Yong-Geun; Kim, Young-Soo; Huh, Jung-Bo; Shin, Sang-Wan

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate cumulative survival rate (CSR) of Implantium implants followed for 5 years and association between risk factors and the CSR. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of two hundred forty-nine Implantium Implants System (Dentium, Seoul, Korea) placed in ninety-five patients from 2004 to 2009 were investigated with several identified risk factors (sex, systemic disease, smoking, alchohol, reason of tooth loss, length, arch (maxilla or mandible), ...

  13. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score is associated with Insulin Resistance and Progression towards Type-e Diabetes

    Schutte, Aletta

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) questionnaire is a practical screening tool to estimate the diabetes risk and the probability of asymptomatic type 2 diabetes. In this study we evaluated the usefulness of the FINDRISC to predict insulin resistance in a population at increased diabetes risk. Design: Data of 771 and 526 participants in a cross-sectional survey (1996) and a cohort study (1997–2000), respectively, were used for the analysis. Data on the FINDRISC and oral glu...

  14. Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study.

    Tae Keun Yoo

    Full Text Available Knee osteoarthritis (OA is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN model for knee OA.The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1 data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI. Area under the curve (AUC of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models.The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001 and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001 with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001 and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001.The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk.

  15. Use of Framingham risk score and new biomarkers to predict cardiovascular mortality in older people: population based observational cohort study

    de Ruijter, Wouter; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Assendelft, Willem J J; Wendy P J den Elzen; Anton J M de Craen; le Cessie, Saskia; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To investigate the performance of classic risk factors, and of some new biomarkers, in predicting cardiovascular mortality in very old people from the general population with no history of cardiovascular disease. Design The Leiden 85-plus Study (1997-2004) is an observational prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. Setting General population of the city of Leiden, the Netherlands. Participants Population based sample of participants aged 85 years (215 women and 87 men) ...

  16. Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts

    Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. Objective: To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. Methods: We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. Results: We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions—a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Conclusion: Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning. PMID:26845084

  17. The first 5 years after the dissertation.

    Hodges, L C; Poteet, G W

    1992-01-01

    To succeed in academia, nursing faculty members must devote the first 5 years following the dissertation to achieving a standard to tenure characteristic of the profession. Most institutions in the country adhere to the American Association of University Professors' guidelines for tenure. These guidelines mandate excellence in teaching, scholarship, and service. A fourth characteristic, leadership, is increasingly considered in tenure decisions. The expectations of an academic career in nursing serve as the foundation for a framework to evaluate the likelihood of success in a particular setting. A detailed 5-year plan for achieving tenure is proposed. PMID:1634654

  18. Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

    Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. PMID:27445216

  19. Cardiac operative risk evaluation: The EuroSCORE II, does it make a real difference?

    Noyez, L.; Kievit, P.C.; Swieten, H.A. van; Boer, M.J. de

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The EuroSCORE, worldwide used as a model for prediction of mortality after cardiac surgery, has recently been renewed. Since October 2011, the EuroSCORE II calculator is available at the EuroSCORE website and recommended for clinical use. The intention of this paper is to compare the use

  20. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H; Borglykke, Anders; Krarup, Nikolaj Thure; Grarup, Niels; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Hansen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf

    2015-01-01

    these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested if genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated SNPs associate with fasting serum lipid traits and if the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. METHODS AND RESULTS: -The SNPs were genotyped in two...... cross-sectional design, we investigated if the effect of these wGRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking or the individual metabolic health status as estimated from BMI, waist circumference and insulin resistance assessed using HOMA-IR. All four...... lipid wGRSs associated strongly with their respective trait (from P=3.3×10(-69) to P=1.1×10(-123)). We found interactions between the triglyceride wGRS and BMI and waist circumference on fasting triglyceride levels in Inter99 and replicated these findings in Health2006 (Pinteraction=9.8×10(-5) and 2...

  1. Prognosis Predicting Score for Endovascular Treatment of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Risk Modeling Study for Individual Elderly Patients.

    Duan, Guoli; Yang, Pengfei; Li, Qiang; Zuo, Qiao; Zhang, Lei; Hong, Bo; Xu, Yi; Zhao, Wenyuan; Liu, Jianmin; Huang, Qinghai

    2016-02-01

    The elderly patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) have a greater risk of poor clinical outcome after endovascular treatment (EVT) than younger patients do. Hence, it is necessary to explore which factors are associated with poor outcome and develop a predictive score specifically for elderly patients with aSAH receiving EVT. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive score for 1-year outcomes in individual elderly patients with aSAH underwent EVT.In this 10-year prospective study, 520 consecutive aSAH elderly (age ≥ 60 years) patients underwent EVT in a single center were included. The risk factors, periprocedural, and 1-year follow-up data of all patients were entered in a specific prospective database. The modified Rankin scale was used for evaluating clinical outcome. To optimize the model's predictive capacity, the original matrix was randomly divided in 2 submatrices (learning and testing). The predictive score was developed using Arabic numerals for all variables based on the variable coefficients (β) of multivariable logistic regression analysis in the learning set and the predictive performance evaluation was assessed in the testing set. The risk classes were constructed using classification criteria based on sensitivity and specificity. The poor outcome rate at 1 year was 26.15%. Six risk factors, including age, hypertension, Hunt-Hess scale, Fisher scale, aneurysm location, and periprocedural complications, were independently associated with poor outcome and assembled the Changhai score. The discriminative power analysis with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Changhai score was statistically significant (0.864, 0.824-0.904, P EVT. In combination with these risk factors, the Changhai score can be a useful tool in the prediction of clinical outcome but needs to be validated in various centers before it can be recommended for application. PMID:26886607

  2. Hypomineralized second primary molars: Prevalence data in Dutch 5-year-olds

    Elfrink, M.E.C.; Schuller, A.A.; Weerheijm, K.L.; Veerkamp, J.S.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional observational study was to report on the prevalence of hypomineralizations in second primary molars in 5-year-old Dutch children. In the study 386 (45% girls) 5-year-old Dutch children, all insured by a Health Insurance Fund, participated. Scoring criteria for molar i

  3. Soviet business chaos seen lasting 5 years

    This paper reports that companies seeking work in the collapsing Soviet Union can expect political uncertainty for another 5 years. PW discussed changes in the Soviet Union and offered advice on dealing with officials of the central government and Soviet republics at a recent meeting in Houston with executives of oil field service companies. That meeting preceded reports of the Russian federation, Ukraine, and Byelorussia agreeing to form a Slavic commonwealth

  4. Using SAT scores to identify students at risk in introductory physics

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Phillips, J.

    2006-12-01

    Our previous research has shown a strong correlation between individual students’ pre-instruction scores on Lawson’s Test of Reasoning Ability and their normalized gains on the FCI. These results have been replicated by researchers at Edward Little High School in Maine, at the University of Colorado, and at the University of Central Florida. We now find that SAT scores also provide a strong correlation with FCI gains. The advantage of using SAT scores is that one does not have to administer another test; these scores are usually readily available through the registrar’s office.

  5. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Nielsen, Jens Cosedis; Darkner, Stine;

    2013-01-01

    The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of...

  6. External validation of a clinical scoring system for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: A prediction rule for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) could be helpful in early detection and increased efficiency of screening. A prediction rule by means of a clinical scoring system is available, but has never been validated externally. The aim of this study was to validate the scoring s

  7. Does Preendoscopy Rockall Score Safely Identify Low Risk Patients following Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage?

    Matthew R. Johnston

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine if preendoscopy Rockall score (PERS enables safe outpatient management of New Zealanders with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH. Methods. Retrospective analysis of adults with UGIH over 59 consecutive months. PERS, diagnosis, demographics, need for endoscopic therapy, transfusion or surgery and 30-day mortality and 14-day rebleeding rate, and sensitivity and specificity of PERS for enabling safe discharge preendoscopy were calculated. Results. 424 admissions with UGIH. Median age was 74.3 years (range 19–93 years, with 55.1% being males. 30-day mortality was 4.6% and 14-day rebleeding rate was 6.0%. Intervention was required in 181 (46.6%: blood transfusion (147 : 37.9%, endoscopic intervention (75 : 19.3%, and surgery (8 : 2.1%. 42 (10.8% had PERS = 0 with intervention required in 15 (35.7%. Females more frequently required intervention, OR 1.73 (CI: 1.12–2.69. PERS did not predict intervention but did predict 30-day mortality: each point increase equated to an increase in mortality of OR 1.46 (CI: 1.11–1.92. Taking NSAIDs/aspirin reduced 30-day mortality, OR 0.22 (CI: 0.08–0.60. Conclusion. PERS identifies 10.8% of those with UGIH as low risk but 35.7% required intervention or died. It has a limited role in assessing these patients and should not be used to identify those suitable for outpatient endoscopy.

  8. A sonographic scoring system to assess the risk of thyroid malignancy.

    Pathirana, A A; Bandara, K G M W; Faleel, M A; Kuruppumullage, S D; Solangarachchi, N; Rupasinghe, R D; Karunaratne, N P N; Ranasinghe, D D; Epa, W A; Thusyanthan, V

    2016-03-01

    Prediction of thyroid malignancy with fine needle aspiration cytology or individual ultrasound characteristics has several limitations. This study evaluates the usefulness of a combination of ultrasound characteristics in predicting malignancy in patients with thyroid nodules. We assessed 189 thyroid nodules using ultrasonography and histology. Each nodule was assigned a score based on ultrasonographic characteristics. This score was compared with histology to identify ability to predict malignancy. There were 28 malignant nodules. The scoring system was appropriate for clinical use, obtaining an area under ROC curve of 0.822 [p< 0.0001] 95% confidence. FNAC of nodules with a score of more than 4 can be recommended (100% sensitivity). Nodules with a score less than 8 can be offered total thyroidectomy when FNAC is inconclusive (97.5% sensitivity). A combination of ultrasonographic criteria increase the accuracy of predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules. PMID:27031977

  9. Dopamine and serotonin genetic risk scores predicting substance and nicotine use in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Groenman, Annabeth P; Greven, Corina U; van Donkelaar, Marjolein M J; Schellekens, Arnt; van Hulzen, Kimm J E; Rommelse, Nanda; Hartman, Catharina A; Hoekstra, Pieter J; Luman, Marjolein; Franke, Barbara; Faraone, Stephen V; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Buitelaar, Jan K

    2016-07-01

    Individuals with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at increased risk of developing substance use disorders (SUDs) and nicotine dependence. The co-occurrence of ADHD and SUDs/nicotine dependence may in part be mediated by shared genetic liability. Several neurobiological pathways have been implicated in both ADHD and SUDs, including dopamine and serotonin pathways. We hypothesized that variations in dopamine and serotonin neurotransmission genes were involved in the genetic liability to develop SUDs/nicotine dependence in ADHD. The current study included participants with ADHD (n = 280) who were originally part of the Dutch International Multicenter ADHD Genetics study. Participants were aged 5-15 years and attending outpatient clinics at enrollment in the study. Diagnoses of ADHD, SUDs, nicotine dependence, age of first nicotine and substance use, and alcohol use severity were based on semi-structured interviews and questionnaires. Genetic risk scores were created for both serotonergic and dopaminergic risk genes previously shown to be associated with ADHD and SUDs and/or nicotine dependence. The serotonin genetic risk score significantly predicted alcohol use severity. No significant serotonin × dopamine risk score or effect of stimulant medication was found. The current study adds to the literature by providing insight into genetic underpinnings of the co-morbidity of ADHD and SUDs. While the focus of the literature so far has been mostly on dopamine, our study suggests that serotonin may also play a role in the relationship between these disorders. PMID:25752199

  10. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

    Michael Hiesmayr

    Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

  11. Health care index score and risk of death following tuberculosis diagnosis in HIV-positive patients

    Podlekareva, D N; Grint, D; Post, F A;

    2013-01-01

    To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome.......To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome....

  12. Agreement between the SCORE and D’Agostino Scales for the Classification of High Cardiovascular Risk in Sedentary Spanish Patients

    Luis García-Ortiz

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: To evaluate agreement between cardiovascular risk in sedentary patients as estimated by the new Framingham-D’Agostino scale and by the SCORE chart, and to describe the patient characteristics associated with the observed disagreement between the scales. Design: A cross-sectional study was undertaken involving a systematic sample of 2,295 sedentary individuals between 40–65 years of age seen for any reason in 56 primary care offices. An estimation was made of the Pearson correlation coefficient and kappa statistic for the classification of high risk subjects (≥20% according to the Framingham-D’Agostino scale, and ≥5% according to SCORE. Polytomous logistic regression models were fitted to identify the variables associated with the discordance between the two scales. Results: The mean risk in males (35% was 19.5% ± 13% with D’Agostino scale, and 3.2% ± 3.3% with SCORE. Among females, they were 8.1% ± 6.8% and 1.2% ± 2.2%, respectively. The correlation between the two scales was 0.874 in males (95% CI: 0.857–0.889 and 0.818 in females (95% CI: 0.800–0.834, while the kappa index was 0.50 in males (95% CI: 0.44%–0.56% and 0.61 in females (95% CI: 0.52%–0.71%. The most frequent disagreement, characterized by high risk according to D’Agostino scale but not according to SCORE, was much more prevalent among males and proved more probable with increasing age and increased LDL-cholesterol, triglyceride and systolic blood pressure values, as well as among those who used antihypertensive drugs and smokers. Conclusions: The quantitative correlation between the two scales is very high. Patient categorization as corresponding to high risk generates disagreements, mainly among males, where agreement between the two classifications is only moderate.

  13. Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European versus the D'AGOSTINO (American risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Giné-Garriga Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3, and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females. Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7% were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9% was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and

  14. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A;

    2014-01-01

    bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P < 0.05 performed only slightly better, c-statistic = 0.81, but was limited in use by its complexity. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with heart failure, this simple......BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals with...... heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...

  15. Predictive impact of allele-matching and EBMT risk score for outcome after T-cell depleted unrelated donor transplantation in poor-risk acute leukemia and myelodysplasia

    Lodewyck, T.; Oudshoorn, M.; Holt, B. van der; Petersen, E.; Spierings, E.; Borne, P. von dem; Schattenberg, A.V.M.B.; Allebes, W.A.; Groenendijk-Sijnke, M.; Duinhouwer, L.; Willemze, R.; Lowenberg, B.; Verdonck, L.F.; Meijer, E.; Cornelissen, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Many parameters predict for outcome after unrelated donor (URD) allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). High-resolution HLA-matching significantly impacts outcome and also the European Group of Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) risk score, based on patient age, disease st

  16. Fasting Plasma Insulin at 5 Years of Age Predicted Subsequent Weight Increase in Early Childhood over a 5-Year Period-The Da Qing Children Cohort Study.

    Yan Yan Chen

    Full Text Available The association between hyperinsulinemia and obesity is well known. However, it is uncertain especially in childhood obesity, if initial fasting hyperinsulinemia predicts obesity, or obesity leads to hyperinsulinemia through insulin resistance.To investigate the predictive effect of fasting plasma insulin on subsequent weight change after a 5-year interval in childhood.424 Children from Da Qing city, China, were recruited at 5 years of age and followed up for 5 years. Blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, fasting plasma insulin, glucose and triglycerides were measured at baseline and 5 years later.Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age was significantly correlated with change of weight from 5 to 10 years (ΔWeight. Children in the lowest insulin quartile had ΔWeight of 13.08±0.73 kg compare to 18.39±0.86 in the highest insulin quartile (P<0.0001 in boys, and similarly 12.03±0.71 vs 15.80±0.60 kg (P<0.0001 in girls. Multivariate analysis showed that the predictive effect of insulin at 5 years of age on subsequent weight gain over 5 years remained statistically significant even after the adjustment for age, sex, birth weight, TV-viewing time and weight (or body mass index at baseline. By contrast, the initial weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent changes in insulin level 5 years later. Children who had both higher fasting insulin and weight at 5 years of age showed much higher levels of systolic blood pressures, fasting plasma glucose, the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR and triglycerides at 10 years of age.Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age predicts weight gain and cardiovascular risk factors 5 year later in Chinese children of early childhood, but the absolute weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent change in fasting insulin.

  17. A comparative assessment of non-laboratory-based versus commonly used laboratory-based cardiovascular disease risk scores in the NHANES III population.

    Ankur Pandya

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: National and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index, which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values. We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings in an external validation population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III aged 25-74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n = 5,999. Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10-20% and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome. Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9-95.7% and 94.2-95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957-0.980 and 0.946-0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991, and SCORE (high, low functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Every score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which

  18. Management of High Blood Pressure in Those without Overt Cardiovascular Disease Utilising Absolute Risk Scores

    Mark R. Nelson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing blood pressure has a continuum of adverse risk for cardiovascular events. Traditionally this single measure was used to determine who to treat and how vigorously. However, estimating absolute risk rather than measurement of a single risk factor such as blood pressure is a superior method to identify who is most at risk of having an adverse cardiovascular event such as stroke or myocardial infarction, and therefore who would most likely benefit from therapeutic intervention. Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk calculators must be used to estimate absolute risk in those without overt CVD as physician estimation is unreliable. Incorporation into usual practice and limitations of the strategy are discussed.

  19. Risk-based priority scoring for Brookhaven National Laboratory environmental restoration programs

    This report describes the process of estimating the risk associated with environmental restoration programs under the Brookhaven National Laboratory Office of Environmental Restoration. The process was part of an effort across all Department of Energy facilities to provide a consistent framework to communicate risk information about the facilities to senior managers in the DOE Office of Environmental Management to foster understanding of risk activities across programs. the risk evaluation was a qualitative exercise. Categories considered included: Public health and safety; site personnel safety and health; compliance; mission impact; cost-effective risk management; environmental protection; inherent worker risk; environmental effects of clean-up; and social, cultural, political, and economic impacts

  20. Hip and fragility fracture prediction by 4-item clinical risk score and mobile heel BMD: a women cohort study

    Thulesius Hans

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One in four Swedish women suffers a hip fracture yielding high morbidity and mortality. We wanted to revalidate a 4-item clinical risk score and evaluate a portable heel bone mineral density (BMD technique regarding hip and fragility fracture risk among elderly women. Methods In a population-based prospective cohort study we used clinical risk factors from a baseline questionnaire and heel BMD to predict a two-year hip and fragility fracture outcome for women, in a fracture preventive program. Calcaneal heel BMD was measured by portable dual X-ray laser absorptiometry (DXL and compared to hip BMD, measured with stationary dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA technique. Results Seven women suffered hip fracture and 14 women fragility fracture/s (at hip, radius, humerus and pelvis among 285 women; 60% having heel BMD ≤ -2.5 SD. The 4-item FRAMO (Fracture and Mortality Index combined the clinical risk factors age ≥80 years, weight Conclusions In a follow-up study we identified high risk groups for hip and fragility fracture with our plain 4-item risk model. Increased fracture risk was also related to decreasing heel BMD in calcaneal bone, measured with a mobile DXL technique. A combination of high FRAMO Index, prior fragility fracture, and very low BMD restricted the high risk group to 11%, among whom most hip fractures occurred (71%. These practical screening methods could eventually reduce hip fracture incidence by concentrating preventive resources to high fracture risk women.

  1. Texting while driving: the development and validation of the distracted driving survey and risk score among young adults

    Bergmark, Regan W.; Gliklich, Emily; Guo, Rong; Gliklich, Richard E.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Texting while driving and other cell-phone reading and writing activities are high-risk activities associated with motor vehicle collisions and mortality. This paper describes the development and preliminary evaluation of the Distracted Driving Survey (DDS) and score. Methods: Survey questions were developed by a research team using semi-structured interviews, pilot-tested, and evaluated in young drivers for validity and reliability. Questions focused on texting while driving and ...

  2. Augmentation index is associated with coronary revascularization in patients with high Framingham risk scores: a hospital-based observational study

    Choi, JoonHyouk; Kim, Song-Yi; Joo, Seung-Jae; Kim, Ki-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Background This study analyzed PWAs in patients with high Framingham risk scores to determine whether PWA is predictive of coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treatment. Methods In total, 310 patients were screened due to suspected CAD; 78 were excluded due to PCI history (32), atrial fibrillation (11), or acute myocardial infarction (35). The augmentation index (AIx) was analyzed immediately before coronary angiography. PCI was performed in 73 ...

  3. Do the malnutrition universal screening tool (MUST) and Birmingham nutrition risk (BNR) score predict mortality in older hospitalised patients?

    Lee Emma; Moore Nicola; Henderson Sarah; Witham Miles D

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Undernutrition is common in older hospitalised patients, and routine screening is advocated. It is unclear whether screening tools such as the Birmingham Nutrition Risk (BNR) score and the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) can successfully predict outcome in this patient group. Methods Consecutive admissions to Medicine for the Elderly assessment wards in Dundee were assessed between mid-October 2003 and mid-January 2004. Body Mass Index (BMI), MUST and BNR scor...

  4. Stability of the Framingham Nutritional Risk Score and its component nutrients over 8 years: The Framingham Nutrition Studies

    Kimokoti, Ruth W.; Newby, P. K.; Gona, Philimon; Zhu, Lei; Campbell, Wei R.; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Millen, Barbara E.

    2011-01-01

    Background / Objectives Diet quality indices are increasingly used in nutrition epidemiology as dietary exposures in relation to health outcomes. However, literature on long-term stability of these indices is limited. We aimed to assess the stability of the validated Framingham Nutritional Risk Score (FNRS) and its component nutrients over 8 years as well as the validity of the follow-up FNRS. Subjects / Methods Framingham Offspring/Spouse Study women and men (n=1 734) aged 22-76 years wwver ...

  5. A longitudinal analysis of diet quality scores and the risk of incident depression in the SUN Project

    Sanchez-Villegas, A.; Henriquez-Sanchez, P. (Patricia); Ruiz-Canela, M.; Lahortiga, F. (Francisca); Molero, P. (Paz); Toledo, E. (Estefanía); Martinez-Gonzalez, M.A. (Miguel Angel)

    2015-01-01

    Background Some studies have pointed out that several dietary patterns could be associated with a reduced risk of depression among adults. This association seems to be consistent across countries, cultures and populations. The objective of the study was to compare and to establish the type of relationship between three diet quality scores and depression in the SUN (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra) Cohort study. Methods We performed a dynamic cohort study based on Spanish university graduat...

  6. Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

    Straand Jørund

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK, 4.4% (SCORE and 14.5% (Framingham had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females.

  7. Towards an Evidence Based Score Card for Aligning Risk Management and Sustainability Goals for Essential NORM Industries: Case Study - Phosphates

    Approaches to regulating NORM industries risk suffering blight from over-conservative methodologies, whether based on worst case models, extreme event scenarios or unmediated application of the precautionary principle: the outcome can be a significant overestimation of risk and a consequent penalty on both producers and consumers in terms of access to and affordability of the intermediate and end products those industries provide. In particular, for historical reasons derived perhaps from the potentially distracting regulatory focus on what is usually trace radioactivity in products and by-products containing NORM, there is a damaging tendency to seek risk management models and best practices from nuclear industries in general rather than from those sectors to which the end products of NORM industries are specifically aligned. This risk is particularly visible in the phosphate sector, an industry now pivotal to long term security and sustainability in both food production and energy supply, plant based or nuclear. Premised on a companion paper which sets out the theory of 'constructive regulation', presented in 2008 at the 12th International Congress of the International Radiation Protection Association, Buenos Aires, this paper proposes the use of an evidence based score carding system to ensure the future alignment of risk management and sustainability goals for NORM industries, starting with phosphates. The score card elements are broken out into three primary categories along the lines defined in the concept of triple bottom line performance measurement, comprising economic, social and environmental elements. The question is put as to what role constructive regulation and best practices can play in ensuring that the outcome of the regulatory process is the preservation and enhancement of the capability of these industries to deliver sustainable returns to the customers and stakeholders who depend on them. Score carding will facilitate transparent, objective

  8. Development and validation of a bedside risk score for MRSA among patients hospitalized with complicated skin and skin structure infections

    Zilberberg Marya D

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a frequent cause of complicated skin and skin structure infections (cSSSI. Patients with MRSA require different empiric treatment than those with non-MRSA infections, yet no accurate tools exist to aid in stratifying the risk for a MRSA cSSSI. We sought to develop a simple bedside decision rule to tailor empiric coverage more accurately. Methods We conducted a large multicenter (N=62 hospitals retrospective cohort study in a US-based database between April 2005 and March 2009. All adult initial admissions with ICD-9-CM codes specific to cSSSI were included. Patients admitted with MRSA vs. non-MRSA were compared with regard to baseline demographic, clinical and hospital characteristics. We developed and validated a model to predict the risk of MRSA, and compared its performance via sensitivity, specificity and other classification statistics to the healthcare-associated (HCA infection risk factors. Results Of the 7,183 patients with cSSSI, 2,387 (33.2% had MRSA. Factors discriminating MRSA from non-MRSA were age, African-American race, no evidence of diabetes mellitus, cancer or renal dysfunction, and prior history of cardiac dysrhythmia. The score ranging from 0 to 8 points exhibited a consistent dose–response relationship. A MRSA score of 5 or higher was superior to the HCA classification in all characteristics, while that of 4 or higher was superior on all metrics except specificity. Conclusions MRSA is present in 1/3 of all hospitalized cSSSI. A simple bedside risk score can help discriminate the risk for MRSA vs. other pathogens with improved accuracy compared to the HCA definition.

  9. Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians.

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-09-29

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat\\/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

  10. Biochemical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy in patients with follow-up more than5-years

    Kwang Hyun Kim; Sey Kiat Lim; Tae-Young Shin; Byung Ha Chung; Sung Joon Hong; Koon Ho Rha

    2013-01-01

    In this study,we assessed biochemical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).Between July 2005 and November 2007,one hundred and seventy-six consecutive patients treated by RARP without neoadjuvant treatment were included in this study.All procedures were performed by a single surgeon and the median follow-up period was 60 months (interquartile range (IQR):59-69).The median prostate specific antigen was 7.50 ng ml-1 (IQR:5.14-11.45) and 39.2% of the patients were classified as intermediate risk and 15.3% were classified as high risk; on final pathological examination,35.2% of the patients had non-organ confined disease and 37.5%and 14.2% had Gleason scores of 7 and 8-10,respectively.The biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival rates at 3 and 5 years were 85.6% and 81.2%,respectively.The 5-year BCR-free survival rates stratified by pathologic Gleason scores were 93.1% in Gleason scores of 6 or less,74.5% in a Gleason score of 7,and 58.1% in Gleason scores of 8 or greater,respectively (P<0.001).When stratified by pathologic stage,the BCR-free survival rates were 89.8% in pT2 patients,66.2% in pT3a patients,and 39.3% in pT3b patients at 5 years following RARP,respectively (P<0.001).Preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA),pathologic stage,postoperative Gleason score and surgical margin status were independently associated with BCR in multivariate analysis.In this study,we report biochemical outcomes after RARP with the longest follow-up periods to date in Asian men.We found that robotic surgery provided satisfactory biochemical outcomes,and that RARP is a safe and effective procedure in terms of oncologic outcomes.

  11. Implementation of an Early Warning Scoring System to Identify Patients With Cancer at Risk for Deterioration.

    Olsen, MiKaela; Mooney, Kathy; Evans, Ellen

    2016-08-01

    Early warning scoring systems are tools for nurses to help monitor their patients and improve how quickly a patient experiencing a sudden decline receives clinical care. Nurse leaders and frontline staff at a major academic medical center implemented a new early warning system that gives clear guidelines to nurses, nursing assistants, and other clinicians about vital-sign parameters and changes in patients' mental status. 
. PMID:27441509

  12. Psoriasis and the Framingham risk score in a Danish hospital cohort

    Gyldenløve, Mette; Jensen, Peter; Linneberg, Allan;

    2014-01-01

    -2011. Median psoriasis area and severity index score was 5.8 (range 0.0-39.8), and 10% of the patients received systemic antipsoriatic treatment. Body mass index (26.2 vs. 25.2 kg/m(2) , P = 0.005), waist circumference (96.0 vs. 88.0 cm, P < 0.001), and prevalence of hypercholesterolemia (15.1 vs. 14.5, P = 0...

  13. Value of Modified Possum Scoring System on Predicting Operation Risk 
in Elderly NSCLC Patients

    Wang, Rong; Dewei GAO; Gong, Weiqin; Zhiru LIANG

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective For the assessment of elderly patients can tolerate lung cancer operation, there is no clear standard. To evaluate the clinical validity of POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Umeration of Mortality and Morbidity) in elderly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) surgery patients, we want to provide an important basis for operation treatment decisions. Methods A total of 138 patients, with 88 males and 50 females, with elderly NSCLC surgery between ...

  14. Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

    Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2016-05-01

    Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition. PMID:26768431

  15. Comparison of Risk Scoring Systems to Predict the Outcome in ASA-PS V Patients Undergoing Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Yurtlu, Derya Arslan; Aksun, Murat; Ayvat, Pnar; Karahan, Nagihan; Koroglu, Lale; Aran, Gülcin Önder

    2016-03-01

    Operative decision in American Society of Anesthesiology Physical Status (ASA-PS) V patient is difficult as this group of patients expected to have high mortality rate. Another risk scoring system in this ASA-PS V subset of patients can aid to ease this decision.Data of ASA-PS V classified patients between 2011 and 2013 years in a single hospital were analyzed in this study. Predicted mortality of these patients was determined with acute physiology and chronic health evaluations (APACHE) II, simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Porthsmouth physiological and operative severity score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), Surgical apgar score (SAS), and Goldman cardiac risk index (GCRI) scores. Observed and predicted mortality rates according to the risk indexes in these patients were compared at survivor and nonsurvivor group of patients. Risk stratification was made with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Data of 89 patients were included in the analyses. Predicted mortality rates generated by APACHE II and SAPS II scoring systems were significantly different between survivor and nonsurvivor group of patients. Risk stratification with ROC analysis revealed that area under curve was 0.784 and 0.681 for SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems, respectively. Highest sensitivity (77.3) is reached with SAPS II score.APACHE II and SAPS II are better predictive tools of mortality in ASA-PS V classified subset of patients. Discrimination power of SAPS II score is the best among the compared risk stratification scores. SAPS II can be suggested as an additional risk scoring system for ASA-PS V patients. PMID:27043696

  16. Comparison of metabolic parameters and Framingham cardiovascular risk scores before and after in-hospital treatment with antipsychotics

    Wysokiński, Adam

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. The objective of this naturalistic study was to evaluate changes in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS and Framingham cardiovascular risk scores in adult with schizophrenia after inhospital treatment with antipsychotics. Methods. For 58 patients (36 women and 22 men the following data was acquired on admission and at discharge: body height and weight, waist circumference, cigarette smoking, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides (TGA, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, blood pressure, concomitant use of antidiabetic, antihypertensive and antihyperlipidemic medications. Results. Mean TGA levels increased significantly (140.32 mg/dL vs. 180.17 mg/dL, other parameters did not change. MetS prevalence on admission and at discharge did not differ significantly, irrespective of definition used (IDF: 50.00% vs. 60.34%; ATPIII: 39.66% vs. 43.10%; ATPIII A: 46.55% vs. 51.72%. Two cardiovascular risk scores were reduced at discharge: stroke, 10-year (4.10% vs. 3.46% and hypertension, 4-year (22.18% vs. 16.58%. Other Framingham risk scores did not change. Very high prevalence of abnormal body weight (up to 65%, abdominal obesity (63% in men and 89% in women, hypertension (>50% and lipid abnormalities (31-64% was found. Conclusions. We have found a very high rate of MetS in patients treated with antipsychotics. No metabolic parameters improved after hospital stay, while some worsened. This did not, however, result in increased risk of cardiovascular events. Abnormal body weight and lipid abnormalities were very common in our study population. Our results indicate that metabolic parameters should be monitored regularly, particularly in outpatient settings, and appropriate treatment should be introduced as soon as any signifand appropriate treatment should be introduced as soon as any significant changes are found.

  17. The clinical performance of an office-based risk scoring system for fatal cardiovascular diseases in North-East of Iran.

    Sadaf G Sepanlou

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran.The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed.A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787 in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791 in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779 in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815. The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed.The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

  18. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score

    Lyngbæk, Stig; Marott, Jacob L; Sehestedt, Thomas;

    2013-01-01

    men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP...

  19. Activated TLR signaling in atherosclerosis among women with lower Framingham risk score: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

    Chiang-Ching Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Traditional risk factors can be used to identify individuals at high risk for developing CVD and are generally associated with the extent of atherosclerosis; however, substantial numbers of individuals at low or intermediate risk still develop atherosclerosis. RESULTS: A case-control study was performed using microarray gene expression profiling of peripheral blood from 119 healthy women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort aged 50 or above. All participants had low (100 and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT >1.0 mm, whereas controls (N = 71 had CAC<10 and IMT <0.65 mm. We identified two major expression profiles significantly associated with significant atherosclerosis (odds ratio 4.85; P<0.001; among those with Framingham risk score <10%, the odds ratio was 5.30 (P<0.001. Ontology analysis of the gene signature reveals activation of a major innate immune pathway, toll-like receptors and IL-1R signaling, in individuals with significant atherosclerosis. CONCLUSION: Gene expression profiles of peripheral blood may be a useful tool to identify individuals with significant burden of atherosclerosis, even among those with low predicted risk by clinical factors. Furthermore, our data suggest an intimate connection between atherosclerosis and the innate immune system and inflammation via TLR signaling in lower risk individuals.

  20. Bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia: serotype distribution, antimicrobial susceptibility, severity scores, risk factors, and mortality in a single center in Chile

    Alberto Fica

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available AIMS: Bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (BPP is a severe condition. To evaluate seasonal distribution, mortality, serotype frequencies, antimicrobial susceptibility, and different severity scores among patients with BPP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were identified by laboratory data and restricted to adulthood. Standard methods were used for serotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility. Risk factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. Severity scores (APACHE II, CURB-65 and CAP PIRO were compared using ROC curves. RESULTS: Sixty events of community-acquired BPP occurred between 2005 and 2010. A seasonal pattern was detected. Mean age was 72.1 years old (81.4% >60 years. All had a predisposing factor. Previous influenza (3.3% or pneumococcal immunization (1.7% was infrequent. Admission to critical units was required by 51.7%. Twenty-two serotypes were identified among 59 strains. Only one strain had intermediate resistance to penicillin (1.7%. In-hospital mortality reached 33.3%. Multivariate analysis identified a CAP PIRO score>3 (OR 29.7; IC95 4.7-187, age >65 years (OR 42.1; IC95 2.2-796, and a platelet count<100,000/μL (OR 10.9; IC95 1.2-96 as significant independent factors associated with death. ROC curve analysis did not reveal statistical differences between the three severity scores to predict death (AUC 0.77-0.90. The prognostic yield for all of them was limited (Positive Likelihood Ratio: 1.5-3.8. CONCLUSIONS: BPP had a high case-fatality rate in this group of adult patients with no association to resistant isolates, and a low immunization record. Three independent factors were related to death and the prognostic yield of different severity scores was low.

  1. Association of a body mass index genetic risk score with growth throughout childhood and adolescence.

    Nicole M Warrington

    Full Text Available While the number of established genetic variants associated with adult body mass index (BMI is growing, the relationships between these variants and growth during childhood are yet to be fully characterised. We examined the association between validated adult BMI associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and growth trajectories across childhood. We investigated the timing of onset of the genetic effect and whether it was sex specific.Children from the ALSPAC and Raine birth cohorts were used for analysis (n = 9,328. Genotype data from 32 adult BMI associated SNPs were investigated individually and as an allelic score. Linear mixed effects models with smoothing splines were used for longitudinal modelling of the growth parameters and measures of adiposity peak and rebound were derived.The allelic score was associated with BMI growth throughout childhood, explaining 0.58% of the total variance in BMI in females and 0.44% in males. The allelic score was associated with higher BMI at the adiposity peak (females  =  0.0163 kg/m(2 per allele, males  =  0.0123 kg/m(2 per allele and earlier age (-0.0362 years per allele in males and females and higher BMI (0.0332 kg/m(2 per allele in females and 0.0364 kg/m(2 per allele in males at the adiposity rebound. No gene:sex interactions were detected for BMI growth.This study suggests that known adult genetic determinants of BMI have observable effects on growth from early childhood, and is consistent with the hypothesis that genetic determinants of adult susceptibility to obesity act from early childhood and develop over the life course.

  2. Value of Modified Possum Scoring System on Predicting Operation Risk 
in Elderly NSCLC Patients

    Rong WANG

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective For the assessment of elderly patients can tolerate lung cancer operation, there is no clear standard. To evaluate the clinical validity of POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Umeration of Mortality and Morbidity in elderly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC surgery patients, we want to provide an important basis for operation treatment decisions. Methods A total of 138 patients, with 88 males and 50 females, with elderly NSCLC surgery between December 2007 and December 2013, are included in PLA general hospital. Using the multivariate Logistic regression analysis, we evaluate the value of each factor on the actual postoperative complications mortality and morbidity. The scorings on standard POSSUM and modified POSSUM in the complication group are compared with the non-complication group using the group t test. Drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve in standard POSSUM group and modified POSSUM group, calculating the area under the curve (AUC, AUC in standard group is compared with modified group using t test. Judge if the modified POSSUM prediction is consistent with the actual mortality and morbidity. Results Among 138 patients, there were 77 postoperative complications in 59 patients, 2 cases of death. According to the Logistic regression analysis, 17 of 18 factors in standard POSSUM, pulmonary function, different TNM stage are predictors for postoperative complications (P<0.05. Age is a predictor for postoperative death (P<0.05. In the standard POSSUM scoring, actual complication group compared with non-complication group, the difference is statistically significant (P<0.01. In the modified POSSUM scoring, complication group is compared with non-complication group, the difference is statistically significant (P<0.01. Compared with the standard POSSUM, the modified POSSUM has better predictive value on postoperative morbidity, and the comparison of AUC between the two groups is

  3. Propensity score methods for estimating relative risks in cluster randomized trials with low-incidence binary outcomes and selection bias.

    Leyrat, Clémence; Caille, Agnès; Donner, Allan; Giraudeau, Bruno

    2014-09-10

    Despite randomization, selection bias may occur in cluster randomized trials. Classical multivariable regression usually allows for adjusting treatment effect estimates with unbalanced covariates. However, for binary outcomes with low incidence, such a method may fail because of separation problems. This simulation study focused on the performance of propensity score (PS)-based methods to estimate relative risks from cluster randomized trials with binary outcomes with low incidence. The results suggested that among the different approaches used (multivariable regression, direct adjustment on PS, inverse weighting on PS, and stratification on PS), only direct adjustment on the PS fully corrected the bias and moreover had the best statistical properties. PMID:24771662

  4. Blunt traumatic cardiac rupture. A 5-year experience.

    Brathwaite, C E; Rodriguez, A; Turney, S Z; Dunham, C M; Cowley, R

    1990-12-01

    Blunt traumatic cardiac rupture is associated with a high rate of mortality. A review of the computerized trauma registry (1983 to 1988) identified 32 patients with this injury (ages 19 to 65 years; mean age, 39.5 years; 21 men and 11 women). Twenty-one patients (65.6%) were injured in vehicular crashes, 3 (9.4%) in pedestrian accidents, 3 (9.4%) in motorcycle accidents; 3 (9.4%) sustained crush injury; 1 (3.1%) was injured by a fall; and 1 (3.1%) was kicked in the chest by a horse. Anatomic injuries included right atrial rupture (13[40.6%]), left atrial rupture (8 [25%]), right ventricular rupture (10[31.3%]), left ventricular rupture (4[12.5%]), and rupture of two cardiac chambers (3 [9.4%]). Diagnosis was made by thoracotomy in all 20 patients presenting in cardiac arrest. In the remaining 12 patients, the diagnosis was established in seven by emergency left anterolateral thoracotomy and in five by subxyphoid pericardial window. Seven of these 12 patients (58.3%) had clinical cardiac tamponade and significant upper torso cyanosis. The mean Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma Score (TS), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score were 33.8, 13.2, and 14.3, respectively, among survivors and 51.5, 8.3, and 7.0 for nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 81.3% (26 of 32 patients), the only survivors being those presenting with vital signs (6 of 12 patients [50%]). All patients with rupture of two cardiac chambers or with ventricular rupture died. The mortality rate from myocardial rupture is very high. Rapid prehospital transportation, a high index of suspicion, and prompt surgical intervention contribute to survival in these patients. PMID:2256761

  5. Evaluation of Risk Scores Derived from the Health Family Tree Program

    Jiang, Yuling; Staes, Catherine J.; Adams, Ted D.; Hunt, Steven C.

    2009-01-01

    Family health history is an independent risk factor for certain diseases. The Health Family Tree (HFT) was developed and used to document and assess family health history from the families of high school students since 1980. While the risk algorithm of the HFT was initially validated, 20 years of use as a public health tool in the community provides an extremely large dataset for more rigorous validation. A retrospective cohort study was used with the events before the “cut-off” year as the b...

  6. Outcome Predictors in Prosthetic Joint Infections--Validation of a risk stratification score for Prosthetic Joint Infections in 120 cases.

    Wimmer, Matthias D; Randau, Thomas M; Friedrich, Max J; Ploeger, Milena M; Schmolder, Jan; Strauss, Andreas C; Pennekamp, Peter H; Vavken, Patrick; Gravius, Sascha

    2016-03-01

    Prosthetic joint infections are a major challenge in total joint arthroplasty, especially in times of accumulating drug resistancies. Even though predictive risk classifications are a widely accepted tool to define a suitable treatment protocol a classification is still missing considering the difficulty in treating the -causative pathogen antibiotically. In this study, we present and evaluate a new predictive risk stratification for prosthetic joint infections in 120 cases, treated with a two-stage exchange. Treatment outcomes in 120 patients with proven prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses were regressed on time of infection, systemic risk factors, local risk factors and the difficulty in treating the causing pathogen. The main outcome variable was "definitely free of infection" after two years as published. Age, gender, and BMI were included as covariables and analyzed in a logistic regression model. 66 male and 54 female patients, with a mean age at surgery of 68.3 years±12.0 and a mean BMI of 26.05±6.21 were included in our survey and followed for 29.0±11.3 months. We found a significant association (prisk score may help to identify patients with local and systemic risk factors or with infectious organisms identified as "difficult to treat" prior to the treatment or the decision about the treatment concept. Thus, appropriate extra care should be considered and provided. PMID:26984667

  7. Comparison of Different Risk Scores for Predicting Contrast Induced Nephropathy and Outcomes After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients With ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

    Liu, Yuan-Hui; Liu, Yong; Zhou, Ying-Ling; He, Peng-Cheng; Yu, Dan-Qing; Li, Li-Wen; Xie, Nian-Jin; Guo, Wei; Tan, Ning; Chen, Ji-Yan

    2016-06-15

    Accurate risk stratification for contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is important for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We aimed to compare the prognostic value of validated risk scores for CIN. We prospectively enrolled 422 consecutive patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. Mehran; Gao; Chen; age, serum creatinine (SCr), or glomerular filtration rate, and ejection fraction (ACEF or AGEF); and Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events risk scores were calculated for each patient. The prognostic accuracy of the 6 scores for CIN, and in-hospital and 3-year all-cause mortality and major adverse clinical events (MACEs), was assessed using the c-statistic for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration. CIN was defined as either CIN-narrow (increase in SCr ≥0.5 mg/dl) or CIN broad (≥0.5 mg/dl and/or a ≥25% increase in baseline SCr). All risk scores had relatively high predictive values for CIN-narrow (c-statistic: 0.746 to 0.873) and performed well for prediction of in-hospital death (0.784 to 0.936), MACEs (0.685 to 0.763), and 3-year all-cause mortality (0.655 to 0.871). The ACEF and AGEF risk scores had better discrimination and calibration for CIN-narrow and in-hospital outcomes. However, all risk score exhibited low predictive accuracy for CIN-broad (0.555 to 0.643) and 3-year MACEs (0.541 to 0.619). In conclusion, risk scores for predicting CIN perform well in stratifying the risk of CIN-narrow, in-hospital death or MACEs, and 3-year all-cause mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. The ACEF and AGEF risk scores appear to have greater prognostic value. PMID:27161818

  8. Estimation of cardiac event risk by gated myocardial perfusion imaging and quantitative scoring methods based on a multi-center J-ACCESS database

    Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) has been used to estimate cardiac event risk. The aim of the present study is to achieve stable risk estimation based on perfusion scoring and a multi-center prognostic database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate cardiac event risk based on a Japanese Assessment of Cardiac Event and Survival (J-ACCESS) study. A stress-MPI was performed in 45 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and in 25 non-CAD patients. Perfusion defect scoring of summed stress score (SSS) was performed by 5 methods: visual scoring; automatic scoring of 3 short-axis and 1 vertical long-axis slices; visual modification of Method 2; automatic polar map scoring based on a Japanese multi-center database; and visual modification of Method 4. Agreement of SSS between 2 observers was good (r=0.87-0.97). Agreement of estimated cardiac event risk between observers and among 5 methods was very good (r=0.99-1.00). Regarding diagnostic accuracy for CAD, Method 5 showed optimal diagnostic yields (sensitivity 84%, accuracy 77%). Estimation of cardiac event risk in conjunction with polar map segmentation and common normal databases resulted in stable risk values, and might be used for risk stratification in patients suspected of having CAD. (author)

  9. The WHO score predicts treatment outcome in low risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients treated with weekly intramuscular methotrexate

    Mitra M Gilani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN includes a spectrum of disease ranging from hydatidifrom mole to choriocarcinoma. Low risk GTN is defined as persistent molar pregnancy with a WHO score lower than seven. The optimal chemotherapeutic regimen still remains controversial. Aim: The objectives of this study was to determine efficacy and safety of weekly intramuscular methotrexte in the treatment of low risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.(LRGTN and also identify prognostic factors associated with treatment failure, necessitating second line chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: Sixty-six women with LRGTN from 2001 to 2009 were treated with weekly intramuscular methotrexate at 40mg/m 2 as first line therapy.Monitoring of treatment was done with weekly checking of βhCG level. Three consecutive negative βhCG measurements showed complete response. After first negative βhCG measurement, one additional dose was administered for consolidation. Results: Of 66 patients, who started the treatment five continued their treatment in other medical centres and were excluded from final analysis for treatment evaluation, and seven discontinued first line therapy because of hepatotoxicity. Of the remaining 54, complete remission occurred in 43 (79.6% and eleven were resistant to first line therapy. Mean WHO score prior to starting chemotherapy was significantly different between two groups of response and resistance according to our data. Change of treatment to second line Actinomycin-D was necessary in eigtheen cases because of resistance to first line in eleven and liver enzyme elevation in seven patients. Sixteen of these 18 responded to Actinomycin-D as second line and one needed hysterectomy for complete response. One patient received multiagent chemotherapy for complete remission. Conclusion: We recommend this effective and safe method of chemotherapy for women with LRGTN. According to our data, lower mean WHO score predicts a better

  10. International Energy Security Indicators and Turkey’s Energy Security Risk Score

    Gelengul KOCASLAN

    2014-01-01

    Energy security has been a priority for many countries. What makes energy security that important is; its bilateral relationship with economic, political, social, environmental sustainability and military issues. As an inevitable consequence of globalization cooperation in the field has been a must and it is required international energy security indicators to make energy security risk evaluations in order to establish adequate policies. The aim of the study is to review energy security withi...

  11. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Satoshi Nagano; Masahiro Yokouchi; Takao Setoguchi; Hiromi Sasaki; Hirofumi Shimada; Ichiro Kawamura; Yasuhiro Ishidou; Junichi Kamizono; Takuya Yamamoto; Hideki Kawamura; Setsuro Komiya

    2014-01-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST) owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases) treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed...

  12. Modified Mediterranean Diet Score and Cardiovascular Risk in a North American Working Population

    Yang, Justin; Farioli, Andrea; Korre, Maria; Kales, Stefanos N.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD) biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally ...

  13. Modified Mediterranean Diet Score and Cardiovascular Risk in a North American Working Population

    Yang, Justin; Farioli, Andrea; Korre, Maria; Kales, Stefanos N.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD) biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally a...

  14. Implementation of a new CT colonography service: 5 Year experience

    Aim: To describe our experience using a 5 year audit of computed tomography colonography (CTC) practice and identify factors that influence diagnostic performance to guide implementation in other centres. Material and methods: Consecutive patients referred for CTC at a single institution over a 5 year period were identified, and reporting rates and positive predictive value (PPV) calculated for small polyps, large polyps, and colorectal cancer. Diagnostic performance was compared using the Chi-squared test, and trends over time were examined with logistic regression. The effect of faecal tagging and an intravenous spasmolytic were investigated using Fisher's exact test. Results: In total, 4355 CTC examinations were performed. Overall reporting rates and PPV were 17% and 92%, respectively. Negative predictive value (NPV) for cancer was 99.9%. A significant decrease in reporting rate (p < 0.001) was accompanied by an increase in PPV for small polyps (p = 0.02) following the introduction of faecal tagging. Adequacy rates for CTC improved over time (96% to 99%), with improved adequacy rates when using a spasmolytic, 98% versus 96% without. A significant difference in reporting rates, but not PPV, was found between radiologists. Conclusion: Accurate colonic investigation using CTC can be delivered safely to a high-risk patient population at a single centre. Faecal tagging and an intravenous spasmolytic improve diagnostic performance

  15. Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score

    Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do Brasil

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: INTRODUCTION With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. METHODS This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. RESULTS The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/ were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

  16. High-resolution computed tomography in patients with atypical 'cardiac' chest pain: a study investigating patients at 10-year cardiovascular risks defined by the Framingham and PROCAM scores

    Choon Kiat ANG; Kui Hian SIM; Alan Yean Yip FONG; Sze Piaw CHIN; Tiong Kiam ONG; Seyfarth M Tobias; Wei Ling CHAN; Chee Khoon LIEW; Rapaee ANNUAR; Houng Bang LIEW

    2006-01-01

    Background and objective Atypical 'cardiac' chest pain (ACCP) is not usually caused by myocardial ischaemia. Current noninvasive investigations for these symptoms are not yet as accurate as invasive coronary angiography. The latest 64-row multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) technology is non-invasive, has high specificity and negative predictive values for the detection of significant coronary disease. Our aim was to investigate if this modality can provide more information in the assessment of outpatients with ACCP in addition to established cardiovascular risk scores. Methods Seventy consecutive patients presenting to the outpatient clinic with ACCP underwent 64-row MDCT scan of the coronary arteries. They were categorized into low, medium or high risk groups based upon the Framingham and PROCAM scores. We defined a clinically abnormal MDCT scan as coronary stenosis =50% or calcium score >400 Agatston. Results Fifty-three (75.7%) patients did not have clinically abnormal scans. Framingham score classified 43 patients as low-risk while PROCAM classified 59 patients as low-risk. MDCT scans were abnormal for 18.6% and 22.0% of the respective low-risk group of patients. For patients with medium-to-high risk, 33.3% and 36.4% of Framingham and PROCAM patient groups respectively had abnormal MDCT scans. Conclusion MDCT adds valuable information in the assessment of patients with ACCP by identifying a significant proportion of patients categorized as low-risk to have underlying significant coronary stenosis and coronary calcification by established cardiovascular risk scores.

  17. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Nielsen, Jens Cosedis; Darkner, Stine; Jensen, Gunnar Vagn Hagemann; Mortensen, Leif Spange; Andersen, Henning Rud; . .

    2013-01-01

    Objective The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of stroke and death. Design Prospective cohort study. Settings All Danish pacemaker centres and selected centres in the UK and Canada. Patients Risk factors were recorded prior to pacemaker implan...

  18. Framingham Risk Scores for coronary heart disease in a cohort of Saudi Arabian men and women with spinal cord injury.

    Hussain, Amjad; Qureshi, Ahmed Zaheer; Ayaz, Saeed Bin; Rathore, Farooq Azam

    2016-06-01

    People with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at increased risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed at predicting CHD risk in a cohort of Saudi patients with SCI in comparison with patients without SCI and to correlate different demographic and clinical factors with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in SCI patients. The study was conducted at the rehabilitation and the main hospitals of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; on sixty patients with SCI and sixty controls of age ≥20 years. FRS was calculated on a web-based calculator. For the SCI group, sub-groups were made for statistical analysis based on gender, cigarette smoking, neurological level and completeness of injury. The mean FRS for the SCI group (2 ± 7.9) was significantly higher (P Saudi patients with SCI had a higher FRS as compared to controls, however, majority had a low risk of developing CHD in next 10 years. The age, SBP and total cholesterol surfaced as positive predictors of CHD in SCI patients. Time since SCI, smoking, and neurological level or completeness of injury did not influence the resultant FRS and thus the development of CHD. PMID:26292928

  19. SELF-LEARNING SCORING MODELS – INTRODUCTION OF AN ON-LINE APPROACH TO RISK ASSESMENT

    Ryszard Kozera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem considered in this article involves the construction of evaluation model, which could subsequently be used in the fieldof modeling and risk management. The research work is finalizedby a construction of a new model on the basis of observa-tions of the models used for risk management and knowledge of information theory, machine learning and artificialneural networks. The developed tools are trained on-line, using their ability for automatic deduction rules based on data, during model application for evaluation tasks. The model, consequently changes the data analysis stage, limits the scope of the necessary expertise in the area, where the assessment model can be used and, to some extent, the shape of the model becomes independent from the current range of available data. These features increase its ability to general-ize and to cope with the data of previously undefinedclasses, as well as improve its resistance to gaps occurring in the data. Performance of the model presented in this paper is tested and verifiedon the basis of real-life data, which would resemble a potentially real practical application. Preliminary tests performed within the scope of this work indicate that the developed model can form a starting point for further research as some of the used mechanisms have a fairly high efficiency and flexibility.

  20. The Alcohol Warning and Adolescents: 5-Year Effects.

    MacKinnon, David P.; Nohre, Liva; Pentz, Mary Ann; Stacy, Alan W.

    2000-01-01

    Examined the effect of alcohol warning labels on adolescents during the first 5 years that the warning was required. Surveys of 10th and 12th grade students over 5 years indicated that the initial positive effects of the labels on adolescents leveled off after 3.5 years. The labels have not affected adolescents' beliefs about alcohol or…

  1. Performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and a Simplified Finnish Diabetes Risk Score in a Community-Based, Cross-Sectional Programme for Screening of Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Dysglycaemia in Madrid, Spain: The SPREDIA-2 Study

    Burgos-Lunar, C.; Lahoz, C.; Mostaza, J. M.; Abánades-Herranz, J. C.; Laguna-Cuesta, F.; Estirado-de Cabo, E.; García-Iglesias, F.; González-Alegre, T.; Fernández-Puntero, B.; Montesano-Sánchez, L.; Vicent-López, D.; Cornejo-del Río, V.; Fernández-García, P. J.; Sánchez-Arroyo, V.; Sabín-Rodríguez, C.; López-López, S.; Patrón-Barandio, P.; Gómez-Campelo, P.

    2016-01-01

    Aim To evaluate the performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and a simplified FINDRISC score (MADRISC) in screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (UT2DM) and dysglycaemia. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional, descriptive study was carried out with participants with UT2DM, ranged between 45–74 years and lived in two districts in the north of metropolitan Madrid (Spain). The FINDRISC and MADRISC scores were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method (ROC-AUC). Four different gold standards were used for UT2DM and any dysglycaemia, as follows: fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), HbA1c, and OGTT or HbA1c. Dysglycaemia and UT2DM were defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria. Results The study population comprised 1,426 participants (832 females and 594 males) with a mean age of 62 years (SD = 6.1). When HbA1c or OGTT criteria were used, the prevalence of UT2DM was 7.4% (10.4% in men and 5.2% in women; p<0.01) and the FINDRISC ROC-AUC for UT2DM was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69–0.74). The optimal cut-off point was ≥13 (sensitivity = 63.8%, specificity = 65.1%). The ROC-AUC of MADRISC was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72–0.81) with ≥13 as the optimal cut-off point (sensitivity = 84.8%, specificity = 54.6%). FINDRISC score ≥12 for detecting any dysglycaemia offered the best cut-off point when HbA1c alone or OGTT and HbA1c were the criteria used. Conclusions FINDRISC proved to be a useful instrument in screening for dysglycaemia and UT2DM. In the screening of UT2DM, the simplified MADRISC performed as well as FINDRISC. PMID:27441722

  2. Genetic Risk Scores Associated with Baseline Lipoprotein Subfraction Concentrations Do Not Associate with Their Responses to Fenofibrate

    Alexis C. Frazier-Wood

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Lipoprotein subclass concentrations are modifiable markers of cardiovascular disease risk. Fenofibrate is known to show beneficial effects on lipoprotein subclasses, but little is known about the role of genetics in mediating the responses of lipoprotein subclasses to fenofibrate. A recent genomewide association study (GWAS associated several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs with lipoprotein measures, and validated these associations in two independent populations. We used this information to construct genetic risk scores (GRSs for fasting lipoprotein measures at baseline (pre-fenofibrate, and aimed to examine whether these GRSs also associated with the responses of lipoproteins to fenofibrate. Fourteen lipoprotein subclass measures were assayed in 817 men and women before and after a three week fenofibrate trial. We set significance at a Bonferroni corrected alpha <0.05 (p < 0.004. Twelve subclass measures changed with fenofibrate administration (each p = 0.003 to <0.0001. Mixed linear models which controlled for age, sex, body mass index (BMI, smoking status, pedigree and study-center, revealed that GRSs were associated with eight baseline lipoprotein measures (p < 0.004, however no GRS was associated with fenofibrate response. These results suggest that the mechanisms for changes in lipoprotein subclass concentrations with fenofibrate treatment are not mediated by the genetic risk for fasting levels.

  3. A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

    McCloskey, Eugene V; Odén, Anders; Harvey, Nicholas C; Leslie, William D; Hans, Didier; Johansson, Helena; Barkmann, Reinhard; Boutroy, Stephanie; Brown, Jacques; Chapurlat, Roland; Elders, Petra Jm; Fujita, Yuki; Glüer, Claus-C; Goltzman, David; Iki, Masayuki; Karlsson, Magnus; Kindmark, Andreas; Kotowicz, Mark; Kurumatani, Norio; Kwok, Timothy; Lamy, Oliver; Leung, Jason; Lippuner, Kurt; Ljunggren, Östen; Lorentzon, Mattias; Mellström, Dan; Merlijn, Thomas; Oei, Ling; Ohlsson, Claes; Pasco, Julie A; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Rosengren, Björn; Sornay-Rendu, Elisabeth; Szulc, Pawel; Tamaki, Junko; Kanis, John A

    2016-05-01

    Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical

  4. Dickkopf-1 as a novel predictor is associated with risk stratification by GRACE risk scores for predictive value in patients with acute coronary syndrome: a retrospective research.

    Lin Wang

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Dickkopf-1 (DKK-1, a major regulator of the Wnt pathway, plays an important role in cardiovascular disease. However, no study has evaluated the association of DKK-1 and acute coronary syndrome (ACS. We investigated this association and whether the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE hospital-discharge risk score predicting major adverse cardiac events (MACE can be improved by adding the DKK-1 value. METHODS: We enrolled 291 patients (46 with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [STEMI] and 245 with non-ST elevated ACS [NSTE-ACS] who were divided into groups by tertiles of baseline plasma DKK-1 level measured by ELISA. The GRACE risk score was calculated and predictive value alone and together with DKK-1 and/or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP level were assessed, respectively. RESULTS: Compared with patients with NSTE-ACS, those with STEMI had higher plasma DKK-1 level at baseline (P = 0.006. Plasma DKK-1 level was correlated with hs-CRP level (r = 0.295, P<0.001 and was greater with high than intermediate or low GRACE scores (P = 0.002 and P<0.001, respectively. We found 44 (15.1% MACEs during a median 2-year follow-up. DKK-1 levels were higher for patients with than without events (P<0.001. The rate of MACE increased with increasing DKK-1 level (P<0.001. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for GRACE score with MACE was 0.524 and improved to 0.791 with the addition of hs-CRP level, 0.775 with the addition of DKK-1 level and 0.847 with both values added. CONCLUSIONS: DKK-1 is an independent predictor of long-term MACE of patients with ACS. The long-term predictive ability of post-discharge GRACE score may be enhanced by adding DKK-1 level.

  5. The use of predefined diet quality scores in the context of CVD risk during urbanization in the South African Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study

    Dolman, R.C.; Wentzel-Viljoen, E.; Jerling, J.C.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Kruger, A.; Pieters, M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Urbanization is generally associated with increased CVD risk and accompanying dietary changes. Little is known regarding the association between increased CVD risk and dietary changes using approaches such as diet quality. The relevance of predefined diet quality scores (DQS) in non-Wester

  6. Caspofungin versus fluconazole as prophylaxis of invasive fungal infection in high-risk liver transplantation recipients: A propensity score analysis.

    Fortún, Jesús; Muriel, Alfonso; Martín-Dávila, Pilar; Montejo, Miguel; Len, Oscar; Torre-Cisneros, Julian; Carratalá, Jordi; Muñoz, Patricia; Fariñas, Carmen; Moreno, Asunción; Fresco, Gema; Goikoetxea, Josune; Gavaldá, Joan; Pozo, Juan Carlos; Bodro, Marta; Vena, Antonio; Casafont, Fernando; Cervera, Carlos; Silva, José Tiago; Aguado, José M

    2016-04-01

    Targeted prophylaxis has proven to be an efficient strategy in liver transplantation recipients (LTRs). The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness and safety of caspofungin with that of fluconazole in high-risk (HR) LTRs. Caspofungin and fluconazole were compared in a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study in HR-LTRs in Spain. Outcomes were assessed at 180 days after transplantation. A propensity score approach was applied. During the study period (2005-2012), we analyzed 195 HR-LTRs from 9 hospitals. By type of prophylaxis, 97 patients received caspofungin and 98 received fluconazole. Of a total of 17 (8.7%) global invasive fungal infections (IFIs), breakthrough IFIs accounted for 11 (5.6%) and invasive aspergillosis (IA) accounted for 6 (3.1%). By univariate analysis, no differences were observed in the prevention of global IFIs. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of breakthrough IFIs (2.1% versus 9.2%, P = 0.04). In patients requiring dialysis (n = 62), caspofungin significantly reduced the frequency of breakthrough IFIs (P = 0.03). The propensity score analysis confirmed a significant reduction in the frequency of IA in patients receiving caspofungin (absolute risk reduction, 0.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.001-0.11; P = 0.044). Linear regression analysis revealed a significant decrease in blood alanine aminotransferase levels and a significant increase in bilirubin levels after administration of caspofungin. Caspofungin and fluconazole have similar efficacy for the prevention of global IFIs in HR-LTRs in this observational, multicenter cohort study. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction of breakthrough IFIs and, after adjusting for confounders, caspofungin was associated with a lower rate of IA. This benefit is probably more favorable in patients on dialysis. Caspofungin is safe in HR-LTRs, although bilirubin levels may be increased. PMID:26709146

  7. Critical Overview of the Risk Scoring Systems to Predict Non-Responsiveness to Intravenous Immunoglobulin in Kawasaki Syndrome

    Donato Rigante

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Kawasaki syndrome (KS is the most relevant cause of heart disease in children living in developed countries. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG has a preventive function in the formation of coronary artery abnormalities and a poor strictly-curative action in established coronary damage. More than two decades ago, the Harada score was set to assess which children with KS should be subject to administration of IVIG, evaluating retrospectively a large cohort of patients with regard to age, sex and laboratory data. Nowadays, high dose IVIG is administered to all children with a confirmed diagnosis of KS, but a tool for predicting non-responsiveness to the initial infusion of IVIG has not been found. The prediction of IVIG resistance is a crucial issue, as recognising these high-risk patients should consent the administration of an intensified initial treatment in combination with IVIG in order to prevent coronary injuries. Few reports have focused on factors, referring to both clinical parameters and laboratory data at the onset of KS, in order to predict which patients might be IVIG non-responsive. We have analysed three different risk scores which were formulated to predict IVIG resistance in Japanese children with typical KS, but their application in non-Japanese patients or in those with incomplete and atypical patterns of the disease has been studied in a fragmentary way. Overall, our analysis showed that early and definite ascertainment of likely IVIG non-responders who require additional therapies reducing the development of coronary artery involvement in children with KS is still a challenge.

  8. Critical Overview of the Risk Scoring Systems to Predict Non-Responsiveness to Intravenous Immunoglobulin in Kawasaki Syndrome.

    Rigante, Donato; Andreozzi, Laura; Fastiggi, Michele; Bracci, Benedetta; Natale, Marco Francesco; Esposito, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is the most relevant cause of heart disease in children living in developed countries. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) has a preventive function in the formation of coronary artery abnormalities and a poor strictly-curative action in established coronary damage. More than two decades ago, the Harada score was set to assess which children with KS should be subject to administration of IVIG, evaluating retrospectively a large cohort of patients with regard to age, sex and laboratory data. Nowadays, high dose IVIG is administered to all children with a confirmed diagnosis of KS, but a tool for predicting non-responsiveness to the initial infusion of IVIG has not been found. The prediction of IVIG resistance is a crucial issue, as recognising these high-risk patients should consent the administration of an intensified initial treatment in combination with IVIG in order to prevent coronary injuries. Few reports have focused on factors, referring to both clinical parameters and laboratory data at the onset of KS, in order to predict which patients might be IVIG non-responsive. We have analysed three different risk scores which were formulated to predict IVIG resistance in Japanese children with typical KS, but their application in non-Japanese patients or in those with incomplete and atypical patterns of the disease has been studied in a fragmentary way. Overall, our analysis showed that early and definite ascertainment of likely IVIG non-responders who require additional therapies reducing the development of coronary artery involvement in children with KS is still a challenge. PMID:26927060

  9. Development and Validation of a Preprocedural Risk Score to Predict Access Site Complications After Peripheral Vascular Interventions Based on the Vascular Quality Initiative Database

    Daniel Ortiz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Access site complications following peripheral vascular intervention (PVI are associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. Prediction of access site complication risk may optimize PVI care; however, there is no tool designed for this. We aimed to create a clinical scoring tool to stratify patients according to their risk of developing access site complications after PVI. Methods: The Society for Vascular Surgery’s Vascular Quality Initiative database yielded 27,997 patients who had undergone PVI at 131 North American centers. Clinically and statistically significant preprocedural risk factors associated with in-hospital, post-PVI access site complications were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, with access site complications as the outcome variable. A predictive model was developed with a random sample of 19,683 (70% PVI procedures and validated in 8,314 (30%. Results: Access site complications occurred in 939 (3.4% patients. The risk tool predictors are female gender, age > 70 years, white race, bedridden ambulatory status, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, prior minor amputation, procedural indication of claudication, and nonfemoral arterial access site (model c-statistic = 0.638. Of these predictors, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus and prior minor amputation were protective of access site complications. The discriminatory power of the risk model was confirmed by the validation dataset (c-statistic = 0.6139. Higher risk scores correlated with increased frequency of access site complications: 1.9% for low risk, 3.4% for moderate risk and 5.1% for high risk. Conclusions: The proposed clinical risk score based on eight preprocedural characteristics is a tool to stratify patients at risk for post-PVI access site complications. The risk score may assist physicians in identifying patients at risk for access site complications and selection of patients who may benefit from bleeding avoidance

  10. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  11. A 5 year prospective study of patient-relevant outcomes after total knee replacement

    Nilsdotter, A-K; Toksvig-Larsen, S; Roos, E M

    2008-01-01

    men, mean age 71 (51-86) assigned for TKR at the Department of Orthopaedics at Lund University Hospital were included in the study. The self-administered questionnaires Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and SF-36 were mailed preoperatively and 6 months, 12 months and at 5 years......OBJECTIVE: To prospectively describe self-reported outcomes up to 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) in Osteoarthritis (OA) and to study which patient-relevant factors may predict outcomes for pain and physical function (PF). METHODS: 102 consecutive patients with knee OA, 63 women and 39...

  12. Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

    Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results: The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended

  13. Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

    Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun, E-mail: skye@kfsyscc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Tsai, Stella Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Yu, Ben-Long [Department of Surgery, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Horng, Cheng-Fang [Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Chen, Chii-Ming [Department of Surgery, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Jian, James J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Chu, Nan-Min [Department of Medical Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Tsou, Mei-Hua [Department of Pathology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Liu, Mei-Ching [Department of Medical Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Huang, Andrew T. [Department of Medical Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Prosnitz, Leonard R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States)

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results: The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.

  14. Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

    Takahashi Mauro

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Coronary artery disease (CAD is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 ± 9.4 years fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC, body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m2 and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m2. Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001 criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results For a sample with a BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m2 the association with lower risk ( Conclusion Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.

  15. The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

    Scherff F.; Vassalli G.; Sürder D.; Mantovani A; Corbacelli C.; Pasotti E.; Klersy C.; Auricchio A.; Moccetti T.; Pedrazzini G.B.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing pr...

  16. A risk score to identify HIV-infected women most likely to become lost to follow-up in the postpartum period.

    Bengtson, Angela M; Chibwesha, Carla J; Westreich, Daniel; Mubiana-Mbewe, Mwangelwa; Chi, Benjamin H; Miller, William C; Mapani, Muntanga; Pence, Brian W; Musonda, Patrick; Stringer, Jeffrey Sa; Pettifor, Audrey

    2016-08-01

    Access to lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is expanding among HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). For this strategy to meaningfully improve maternal HIV outcomes, retention in HIV care is essential. We developed a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of loss to follow-up (LTFU) at 6 months postpartum from HIV care, using data from public health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. LTFU was defined as not presenting for HIV care within 60 days of the last scheduled appointment. We used logistic regression to assess demographic, obstetric and HIV predictors of LTFU and to develop a simple risk score. Sensitivity and specificity were assessed at each risk score cut-point. Among 2029 pregnant women initiating cART between 2009 and 2011, 507 (25%) were LTFU by 6 months postpartum. Parity, education, employment status, WHO clinical stage, duration of cART during pregnancy and number of antenatal care visits were associated with LTFU (p-value < .10). A risk score cut-point of 11 (42nd percentile) had 85% sensitivity (95% CI 82%, 88%) and 22% specificity (95% CI 20%, 24%) to detect women LTFU and would exclude 20% of women from a retention intervention. A risk score cut-point of 18 (69th percentile) identified the 23% of women with the highest probability of LTFU and had sensitivity 32% (95% CI 28%, 36%) and specificity 80% (95% CI 78%, 82%). A risk score approach may be useful to triage a subset of women most likely to be LTFU for targeted retention interventions. PMID:26887526

  17. Apgar Scores

    ... are more likely to have low scores than infants with normal births. These scores may reflect difficulties the baby experienced during labor or problems with her heart or respiratory system. What if Your Baby Scores Low? If your ...

  18. Comparison of the TIMI and the GRACE risk scores with the extent of coronary artery disease in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome

    Objective: To compare the accuracy of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score and the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction risk score in predicting the extent of coronary artery disease in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Methods: The cross-sectional study comprising 406 consecutive patients was conducted at the National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Karachi, from August 2010 to March 2011. For all patients, the GRACE and TIMI RS's relevant scores on the two indices were calculated on admission using specified variables. The patients underwent coronary angiography to determine the extent of the disease. A significant level was defined as >70% stenosis in any major epicardial artery or >50% stenosis in the left main coronary artery. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Both the indices showed good predictive value in identifying the extent of the disease. A Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction score >4 and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score >133 was significantly associated with 3vessel disease and left main disease, while for the former score <4 and latter score <133 was associated with normal or non-obstructive coronary disease (p<0.01). On comparison of the two risk scores, the discriminatory accuracy of the latter was significantly superior to the former in predicting 2vessel, 3vessel and left main diseases (p<0.05). Conclusion: Although both the indices were helpful in predicting the extent of the disease, the Global Registry showed better performance and was more strongly associated with multi-vessel and left main coronary artery disease. (author)

  19. 75 FR 66724 - Endangered and Threatened Species; 5-Year Review

    2010-10-29

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE... (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice of availability of a 5-year review for the U.S. Distinct Population... electronic message to Shelley.norton@noaa.gov . Electronic copies of the 5-year review are available...

  20. Correlation of histological risk assessment/ scoring system with lymph node metastasis and recurrence/progression of disease in oral squamous cell carcinoma

    Objective: To correlate the scoring system using histopathologic parameters; worst pattern of invasion (WPOI), lymphocytic host response (LHR) and peri-neural invasion (PNI), with disease recurrence, overall survival and cervical lymph node metastasis in OSCC patients. Study Design: Cross sectional. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Histopathology, Shaukat Khanam Memorial Cancer and Research Hospital, Lahore in collaboration with Department of Histopathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rawalpindi. Study completed in 2 years. Material and Methods: A Risk Scoring system was applied to 50 cases of OSCC with 2 years follow-up data, based on histopathologic parameters WPOI, LHR and PNI. The cases were divided into High risk and Non-High risk categories according to the specified parameters and then correlated with disease recurrence, overall survival and cervical lymph node metastasis. Results: There were 7 low risk, 17 intermediate risk and 26 high risk cases. No correlation was seen between the risk groups and disease recurrence, overall survival or cervical lymph node metastasis. However, when assessing the individual parameters, significant correlation was observed between PNI with disease recurrence (p = 0.03), and between WPOI and overall survival (p = 0.02) and cervical lymph node metastasis (p = 0.005). Conclusion: The individual parameters, peri-neural invasion and worst pattern of invasion are observed to be significant prognostic indicators in OSCC patients. A study with a larger number of cases is required to truly assess the value of the scoring system in Pakistani patients. (author)

  1. Validación del score de riesgo TIMI para pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo sin elevación del ST TIMI risk score validation for patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation

    Rodrigo H. Bagur

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Los síndromes coronarios agudos sin elevación del segmento ST (SCA-SST son causa frecuente de hospitalización, siendo responsables del 10 al 15% de infartos de miocardio (IM o muertes al año. El objetivo fue evaluar eventos cardiovasculares a 6 meses de seguimiento y validar el score de riesgo TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction en nuestra población. Se analizaron retrospectivamente pacientes con diagnóstico de SCA-SST. Se realizó seguimiento telefónico a los 6 meses del ingreso. Los puntos finales evaluados fueron la combinación de muerte, internación por síndrome coronario agudo y necesidad de revascularización. Se incluyeron 204 pacientes. El 70.2% eran hombres, edad promedio de 64.5 ± 11.8 años. Luego de la evaluación inicial, se hizo diagnóstico de angina inestable en el 34.6%, IM en 38.9% y el 26.4% fueron catalogados como "dolor no coronario". Al aplicar el score de TIMI, 52 (25.5% pacientes tenían riesgo bajo, 106 (52% riesgo intermedio, y 46 (22.5% riesgo alto. La mortalidad global fue 12.6%. Se encontró un incremento progresivo y significativo en la tasa de eventos combinados a medida que aumentaba el score de TIMI (p Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS are frequent cause of hospitalization, being responsible for 10-15% of infarcts or deaths per year. The study was designed to analyze 6 months follow-up of cardiovascular events as well as to validate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk score for patients hospitalized for NSTE-ACS. We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted with NSTE-ACS. Telephone follow-up were performed at 6 month. Combination of death, re-admission for acute coronary syndrome and revascularization were considered as end point. Two hundred and four patients were included for the analysis. There were 70.2% males, with a mean age of 64.5 ± 11.8 years. After the initial evaluation, we diagnosed unstable angina in 34.6% of cases, MI in 38.9% of cases, and 26

  2. A propensity score matched analysis of obesity as an independent risk factor for postoperative complications in reduction mammaplasty

    James D Goggin; Stacy Wong; Jessica E Pruszynski; Jon P Ver Halen

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Reduction mammaplasty is a commonly performed procedure for the treatment of symptomatic macromastia and is increasingly desired by the obese population. With the increasing prevalence obesity in the population, it is imperative to understand its effect on postoperative outcomes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate obesity as an independent risk factor for postoperative complications in breast reduction surgery using 1:1 patient matching through propensity scores between obese patients and non-obese controls.Methods: Between 2005 and 2013, the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program dataset identified a total of 6,016 patients as having undergone primary reduction mammaplasty with 30-day postoperative follow-up. Patients were divided into obese [body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more] vs. not obese (BMI below 30). Patients were initially analyzed using standard multivariable analysis. Using propensity scores obtained from a logistic regression model, patients were subsequently matched 1:1 according to preoperative and operative variables to truly isolate the effect of obesity on surgical outcomes. Outcomes were compared between the matched cohorts using McNemar’s test and the Wilcoxon signed rank test.Results: In unmatched multivariable analysis, rates of overall complications (7.2%vs. 5.3%,P = 0.0024), wound complications (5.5%vs. 3.6%,P = 0.0004), superficial surgical site infection (4.1%vs. 2.8%,P = 0.0050), and wound dehiscence (0.3%vs. 1.1%,P = 0.0005) were found to be statistically different between obesevs. non-obese, respectively. However, when comparing 1:1 matched obese and non-obese patients, only wound complications (4.6%vs. 3.1%,P = 0.0334) were significantly increased in the obese cohort.Conclusion: Using the most robust statistical tools available, obesity was determined to affect wound complications after breast reduction without increased detriment on other major complications when compared to the non-obese. Obesity should be a

  3. Coronary Artery Calcification Scoring with State-of-the-Art CT Scanners from Different Vendors Has Substantial Effect on Risk Classification

    Willemink, M.J.; Vliegenthart, R.; Takx, R.A.P.; Leiner, T.; Budde, R.P.; Bleys, R.L.; Das, M.; Wildberger, J.E.; Prokop, M.; Buls, N.; Mey, J. de; Schilham, A.M.; Jong, P.A. de

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To determine the intervendor variability of Agatston scoring determined with state-of-the-art computed tomographic (CT) systems from the four major vendors in an ex vivo setup and to simulate the subsequent effects on cardiovascular risk reclassification in a large population-based cohort. M

  4. A dietary oxidative balance score of vitamin C, beta-carotene and iron intakes and mortality risk in male smoking Belgians

    Hoydonck, van P.G.A.; Temme, E.H.M.; Schouten, E.G.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate, in smokers, whether the oxidative balance of their dietary pattern affected mortality risk. To evaluate the oxidative balance of the dietary pattern, an oxidative balance score was constructed that summarized the combined intake of dietary antioxidants (

  5. Assessment of dental caries predictors in 6-year-old school children - results from 5-year retrospective cohort study

    Masood Mohd; Yusof Norashikin; Hassan Mohamed Ibrahim; Jaafar Nasruddin

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken to assess the rate and pattern of dental caries development in 6-year-old school children followed-up for a period of 5 years, and to identify baseline risk factors that were associated with 5 years caries experience in Malaysian children. Methods This 5-years retrospective cohort study comprised primary school children initially aged 6 years in 2004. Caries experience of each child was recorded annually using World Health O...

  6. A 5-year experience with an elective scholarly concentrations program

    Paul George

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Problem: Programs that encourage scholarly activities beyond the core curriculum and traditional biomedical research are now commonplace among US medical schools. Few studies have generated outcome data for these programs. The goal of the present study was to address this gap. Intervention: The Scholarly Concentration (SC Program, established in 2006 at the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, is a 4-year elective program that not only encourages students to pursue scholarly work that may include traditional biomedical research but also seeks to broaden students’ focus to include less traditional areas. We compared characteristics and academic performance of SC students and non-SC students for the graduating classes of 2010–2014. Context: Approximately one-third of our students opt to complete an SC during their 4-year undergraduate medical education. Because this program is additional to the regular MD curriculum, we sought to investigate whether SC students sustained the academic achievement of non-SC students while at the same time producing scholarly work as part of the program. Outcome: Over 5 years, 35% of students elected to enter the program and approximately 81% of these students completed the program. The parameters that were similar for both SC and non-SC students were age at matriculation, admission route, proportion of undergraduate science majors, and number of undergraduate science courses. Most academic indicators, including United States Medical Licensing Examinations scores, were similar for the two groups; however, SC students achieved more honors in the six core clerkships and were more likely to be inducted into the medical school's two honor societies. Residency specialties selected by graduates in the two groups were similar. SC students published an average of 1.3 peer-reviewed manuscripts per student, higher than the 0.8 manuscripts per non-SC student (p=0.013. Conclusions: An elective, interdisciplinary

  7. Baseline ambulatory knee kinematics are associated with changes in cartilage thickness in osteoarthritic patients over 5 years.

    Favre, Julien; Erhart-Hledik, Jennifer C; Chehab, Eric F; Andriacchi, Thomas P

    2016-06-14

    Although kinematic alterations during walking have been reported with knee osteoarthritis (OA), there is a paucity of longitudinal data, therefore limiting our understanding of the role of kinematics in OA development. This study tested the hypothesis that less knee extension angle and less posterior displacement of the femur relative to the tibia during the heel-strike portion of the gait cycle are associated with greater loss of medial cartilage thickness during a follow-up period of five years. This study also tested for associations between flexion-extension angle and anterior-posterior displacement during other periods of the gait cycle and 5-year cartilage thinning. 16 subjects with moderate medial knee OA were tested with gait analysis and MRI at baseline and had a follow-up MRI after 5 years. Linear regressions were used to assess the relationship between changes in cartilage thickness and baseline kinematics using Pearson correlation coefficients. Multivariate regressions were also performed to adjust for gender, baseline age, BMI, walking speed, Kellgren/Lawrence grade, and baseline knee pain score. As hypothesized, baseline knee flexion angle and femoral displacement during heel-strike and other gait cycle periods were significantly associated with medial femoral and tibial cartilage thinning at the 5 year follow-up; these associations were strengthened after adjustment for covariates. This study provided new insight into the pathogenesis of knee OA where baseline knee kinematics were associated with longitudinal disease progression. These results could serve as a basis for developing newer gait modification interventions to reduce the risk for developing knee OA. PMID:27178021

  8. Encapsulating Peritoneal Sclerosis – A 5 Year Experience

    Spence, Robert; Gillespie, Scott; Loughrey, Maurice; Gardiner, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Title Encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis – A 5 year experience Aim Encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS) is a rare, life-threatening condition, characterised by a progressive, intra-abdominal inflammatory process resulting in fibrotic visceral constriction. We report the aetiology, management, and outcome of EPS in Belfast. Method All patients diagnosed with EPS in Belfast over the past 5 years are included. Presentation, aetiology, imaging, pathology, and outcome are retrospectively analy...

  9. Clinical spectrum and outcome of pulmonary nocardiosis: 5-year experience

    Singh, Akashdeep; Chhina, Deepinder; Soni, RK; Kakkar, Chandan; Sidhu, US

    2016-01-01

    Background: Pulmonary nocardiosis is a rare but a life-threatening infection caused by Nocardia spp. The diagnosis is often missed and delayed resulting in delay in appropriate treatment and thus higher mortality. Aim: In this study, we aim to evaluate the clinical spectrum and outcome of patients with pulmonary nocardiosis. Methods: A retrospective, 5-year (2009–2014) review of demographic profile, risk factors, clinical manifestations, imaging findings, treatment, and outcome of patients with pulmonary nocardiosis admitted to a tertiary care hospital. Results: The median age of the study subjects was 54 years (range, 16–76) and majority of them (75%) were males. The risk factors for pulmonary nocardiosis identified in our study were long-term steroid use (55.6%), chronic lung disease (52.8%), diabetes (27.8%), and solid-organ transplantation (22.2%). All the patients were symptomatic, and the most common symptoms were cough (91.7%), fever (78%), and expectoration (72%). Almost two-third of the patients were initially misdiagnosed and the alternative diagnosis included pulmonary tuberculosis (n = 7), community-acquired pneumonia (n = 5), lung abscess (n = 4), invasive fungal infection (n = 3), lung cancer (n = 2), and Wegener's granulomatosis (n = 2). The most common radiographic features were consolidation (77.8%) and nodules (56%). The mortality rate for indoor patients was 33% despite treatment. Higher mortality rate was observed among those who had brain abscess (100.0%), HIV positivity (100%), need for mechanical ventilation (87.5%), solid-organ transplantation (50%), and elderly (age > 60 years) patients (43%). Conclusion: The diagnosis of pulmonary nocardiosis is often missed and delayed resulting in delay in appropriate treatment and thus high mortality. A lower threshold for diagnosing pulmonary nocardiosis needs to be exercised, in chest symptomatic patients with underlying chronic lung diseases or systemic immunosuppression, for the early diagnosis

  10. A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L.; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M.; Tuck, Alan; SenGupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A.; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C; Robertson, Susan J.; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX® DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DC...

  11. Effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program for 4-5-Year-Old Children

    Celebioglu Morkoc, Ozlem; Aktan Acar, Ebru

    2014-01-01

    This research examined the effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program (MUECIP) prepared for 4-5-year-old (48-60 months) children whose development is at risk because of their families' socioeconomic conditions. The research adopted a preliminary test-final test control group trial model. The research participants…

  12. What happens to cavitated primary teeth over time? A 3.5-year prospective cohort study in China

    Hu, X.; Chen, X.; Fan, M.; Mulder, J.; Frencken, J.E.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Data showed that among 5-year-old Chinese, 96.7% of cavitated primary teeth were left untreated. The study aimed to report on the course of cavitated primary teeth within the Chinese health-care system over a period of 3.5 years. METHODS: Selection of high caries risk children for inclus

  13. MYOCARDIAL BRIDGING - CLINICAL AND ANGIOGRAPHIC PROFILE IN LAST 5 YEARS; A STUDY OF 129 CASES

    Abhilash S P; Krishna Kumar B; Praveen Velappan; PrabhaniniGupta; Sunita Viswanathan; A. George Koshy

    2010-01-01

    Aims of study : To assess the clinical and angiographical profile of myocardial bridging from consecutive coronary angiograms done over last 5 years at Medical college, Thiruvananthapuram. To assess the risk of cardiovascular events and the risk of accelerated atherosclerosis in isolated myocardial bridging. Methods : Consecutive coronary angiograms done at Medical college Thiruvananthapuram from 04/02/2005 to 31/03/2010 were reviewed for myocardial bridging. A total of 10492 coronary angiogr...

  14. Childhood leukaemia incidence below the age of 5 years near French nuclear power plants

    Laurier, D [Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety, IRSN/DRPH/SRBE, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay aux Roses cedex (France); Hemon, D; Clavel, J [INSERM Unit 754, Villejuif (France)], E-mail: Dominique.laurier@irsn.fr

    2008-09-01

    A recent study indicated an excess risk of leukaemia among children under the age of 5 years living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in Germany. We present results relating to the incidence of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in France for the same age range. These results do not indicate an excess risk of leukaemia in young children living near French nuclear power plants. (note)

  15. Brachytherapy Improves Biochemical Failure–Free Survival in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Compared With Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

    Smith, Graham D. [University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Pickles, Tom [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Crook, Juanita [Department of Radiation Oncology, Kelowna General Hospital, Kelowna, British Columbia (Canada); Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, L' Hotel Dieu de Quebec, Quebec City, Quebec (Canada); Cury, Fabio L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Montreal General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Morris, Jim [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Catton, Charles [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Lukka, Himu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Juravinski Cancer Centre, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Warner, Andrew [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Health Sciences Center, London, Ontario (Canada); Yang, Ying [University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada); Rodrigues, George, E-mail: George.Rodrigues@lhsc.on.ca [University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, London Health Sciences Center, London, Ontario (Canada)

    2015-03-01

    Purpose: To compare, in a retrospective study, biochemical failure-free survival (bFFS) and overall survival (OS) in low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients who received brachytherapy (BT) (either low-dose-rate brachytherapy [LDR-BT] or high-dose-rate brachytherapy with external beam radiation therapy [HDR-BT+EBRT]) versus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) alone. Methods and Materials: Patient data were obtained from the ProCaRS database, which contains 7974 prostate cancer patients treated with primary radiation therapy at four Canadian cancer institutions from 1994 to 2010. Propensity score matching was used to obtain the following 3 matched cohorts with balanced baseline prognostic factors: (1) low-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; (2) intermediate-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; and (3) intermediate-risk HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare differences in bFFS (primary endpoint) and OS in the 3 matched groups. Results: Propensity score matching created acceptable balance in the baseline prognostic factors in all matches. Final matches included 2 1:1 matches in the intermediate-risk cohorts, LDR-BT versus EBRT (total n=254) and HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT (total n=388), and one 4:1 match in the low-risk cohort (LDR-BT:EBRT, total n=400). Median follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 7.3 years for the 3 matched cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all BT treatment options were associated with statistically significant improvements in bFFS when compared with EBRT in all cohorts (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT hazard ratio [HR] 4.58, P=.001; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 2.08, P=.007; low-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 2.90, P=.004). No significant difference in OS was found in all comparisons (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 1.27, P=.687; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 1.55, P=.470; low-risk LDR-BT vs EBRT HR 1.41, P=.500). Conclusions: Propensity score matched analysis showed that BT options led

  16. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Nielsen, Jens Cosedis; Darkner, Stine; Jensen, Gunnar Vagn Hagemann; Mortensen, Leif Spange; Andersen, Henning Rud

    2013-01-01

    Objective The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of stroke and death. Design Prospective cohort study. Settings All Danish pacemaker centres and selected centres in the UK and Canada. Patients Risk factors were recorded prior to pacemaker implantation in 1415 patients with SSS participating in the Danish Multicenter Randomized Trial on Single Lead Atrial Pacing versus Dual Chamber Pacing in Sick Sinus Syndrome (Danpace) trial. Development of stroke was assessed at follow-up visits and by evaluation of patient charts. Mortality was assessed from the civil registration system. Interventions Patients were randomised to AAIR (N=707) or DDDR pacing (N=708). Main outcome measures Stroke and death during follow-up. Results Mean follow-up was 4.3±2.5 years. In the AAIR group 6.9% patients developed stroke versus 6.1% in the DDDR group (NS). There was a significant association between CHADS2 score and the development of stroke (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.64, p<0.001). CHA2DS2-VASc score was also significantly associated with stroke (HR 1.25; CI 1.12 to 1.40, p<0.001). CHADS2 score (HR 1.46; CI 1.36 to 1.56, p<0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 1.39; CI 1.31 to 1.46, p<0.001) were associated with mortality. Results were still significant after adjusting for AF and anticoagulation therapy. Conclusions CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score are associated with increased risk of stroke and death in patients paced for SSS irrespective of the presence of AF. PMID:23539553

  17. Application of Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Neural Network) to Assess Credit Risk : A Predictive Model For Credit Card Scoring

    Islam, Md. Samsul; Zhou, Lin; LI Fei

    2009-01-01

    Credit Decisions are extremely vital for any type of financial institution because it can stimulate huge financial losses generated from defaulters. A number of banks use judgmental decisions, means credit analysts go through every application separately and other banks use credit scoring system or combination of both. Credit scoring system uses many types of statistical models. But recently, professionals started looking for alternative algorithms that can provide better accuracy regarding c...

  18. Validation of the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF Risk Scores for Atrial Fibrillation in Hispanics, African-Americans, and Non-Hispanic Whites.

    Shulman, Eric; Kargoli, Faraj; Aagaard, Philip; Hoch, Ethan; Di Biase, Luigi; Fisher, John; Gross, Jay; Kim, Soo; Krumerman, Andrew; Ferrick, Kevin J

    2016-01-01

    A risk score for atrial fibrillation (AF) has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study and Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF consortium. However, validation of these risk scores in an inner-city population is uncertain. Thus, a validation model was built using the Framingham Risk Score for AF and CHARGE-AF covariates. An in and outpatient electrocardiographic database was interrogated from 2000 to 2013 for the development of AF. Patients were included if their age was >45 and electrocardiogram was without AF, had ≥ 2 electrocardiograms, and declared a race and/or ethnicity as non-Hispanic white, African-American, or Hispanic. For the Framingham Heart Study, 49,599 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,860 developed AF. Discrimination analysis using area under the curve (AUC) for original risk equations: non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.694 to 0.731), African-American AUC = 0.733 (95% CI 0.716 to 0.751), and Hispanic AUC = 0.740 (95% CI 0.723 to 0.757). For the CHARGE-AF, 45,571 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,512 developed AF. Non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.673 (95% CI 0.652 to 0.694), African-American AUC = 0.706 (95% CI 0.685 to 0.727), and Hispanic AUC = 0.711 (95% CI 0.691 to 0.732). Calibration analysis showed qualitative similarities between cohorts. In conclusion, this is the first study to validate both the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF risk scores in both a Hispanic and African-American cohort. All models predicted AF well across all race and ethnic cohorts. PMID:26589820

  19. Validation of scoring system for preoperative stratification of intra-operative risks of complications during cataract surgery: Indian multi-centric study

    Agrawal Vinay

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To validate a system that uniformly and objectively assesses the risk of complications of cataract surgery performed with phacoemulsification technique in individual patients preoperatively. Materials and Methods: Outcome analysis of patient data entered into a standardized protocol. The data sheet was analyzed at a single center in terms of the risk assessed preoperatively and the incidence of surgical complications. This study did not assess the final visual outcome of eyes with complications. Each patient was categorized into a risk group according to the number of points scored. Group 1 (no added risk 0 points, Group 2 (low risk 1-2 points, Group 3 (moderate risk 3-5 points, Group 4 (high risk 6 points or more. Results: The number of eyes in each risk group was 2894 in Group 1 (44.1%, 1881 in Group 2 (28.6%, 1575 in Group 3 (23.9%, and 214 in Group 4 (3.3%. A total of 6564 eyes were assessed, of these 3669 eyes (55.9% had a minimum of one risk factor and were thus not "routine". The group-specific events of complications were Group 1, 46 (1.6%, Group 2, 108 (5.7%, Group 3, 168 (10.7%, and Group 4, 69 (32.2%. The total incidence of complications was 5.7%. The group-specific rate of intraoperative complications increased through the risk groups ( P < 0.001. Conclusion: The study validates a scoring system that is predictive of intraoperative complications. This system uses information that is readily available from the preoperative history and assessment of the patient.

  20. Patients with knee osteoarthritis undergoing total knee arthroplasty have a lower risk of subsequent severe cardiovascular events: propensity score and instrumental variable analysis.

    Wen-Yan Lin

    Full Text Available This population-based study investigated the subsequent cardiovascular risk of patients with knee osteoarthritis underwent total knee arthroplasty in Taiwan.This was a population-based follow-up study of 22931 patients diagnosed with knee osteoarthritis between 2008 and 2011. Each patient was followed for 3 years or until death. Treatment was dichotomized into conservative treatment and TKA. The association between TKA and cardiovascular disease (CVD events was analyzed using propensity score analysis and instrumental variable analysis and two-stage least-squares regression model.Patients with knee osteoarthritis who underwent TKA had a lower 3-year cumulative risk of stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI. After adjusting for measured risk and confounding factors, propensity score showed a 0.56 fold (adjusted OR = 0.56; 95% CI, 0.51-0.61; p<0.001 risk for CVD in those with TKA. Use of instrumental variable analysis for adjusting measured and unmeasured factors and two-stage least squares regression model revealed that the average treatment effect of TKA was statistically associated with a decreased 7% risk of CVD events (95% CI, 0.2%-13.6%.Our study revealed that patients with knee osteoarthritis who underwent TKA had a lower risk of suffering from a future severe cardiovascular event. This benefit may be attributed to an improvement in physical activity, reduction of psychosocial stress, and/or a decreased use of NSAIDs as a result of having undergone TKA.

  1. A STUDY OF RISK FACTOR SCORE OF LIFE-STYLE DISEASES AMONG THE STAFF OF A PRIVATE MEDICAL COLLEGE OF JAIPUR

    Anjali

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the changing lifestyles and dietary habits, the health of the world is now dominated by non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. These are commonly linked to risk factors associated with the life style of an individual like tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, obesity, high blood pressure. These diseases can be modified by just adopting healthy lifestyle habits. STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk factors score (tobacco, alcohol, diet, physical activity, BMI, blood pressure, etc. of non-communicable diseases in the staff of a private medical college of Jaipur. STUDY DESIGN: Hospital-based Cross-sectional study. SETTING: A private medical college of Jaipur district. Sample Population: Staff members including all the doctors, nurses, laboratory technicians and class three workers were interviewed using the pre-designed schedule. DURATION OF STUDY: 2 months (July – September, 2010. RESULTS: Of all the risk factors the maximum (i.e. 37 respondents (20.5% had 4 risk factors. In the 40-49 yrs age group majority of respondents (i.e. 18 and 18 had the risk factor score of 4 and 5, in 50-59 years, majority (i.e. 12 respondents had 4 and in ≥60 yrs majority (i.e. 8 respondents had 7 risk factors.

  2. Assessment of caries prevalence among children below 5 years old

    Prabhu, Poornima; Rajajee, K. T. S. S.; Sudheer, K. A.; Jesudass, G.

    2014-01-01

    Context: In the current scenario of developing countries, dental caries has been a long-standing challenge in the oral health issue and still on the rise. Aim: The aim of the following study is to estimate the caries prevalence in the primary dentition among children below 5 years of age. Meterials and Methods: Study population included both boys and girls below 5 years old attending KGF Dental College and Hospital, Karnataka. A simple random sampling method was used. A total of 672 children ...

  3. Development of a new risk score for incident type 2 diabetes using updated diagnostic criteria in middle-aged and older chinese.

    Xingwang Ye

    Full Text Available Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM reaches an epidemic proportion among adults in China. However, no simple score has been created for the prediction of T2DM incidence diagnosed by updated criteria with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ≥ 6.5% included in Chinese. In a 6-year follow-up cohort in Beijing and Shanghai, China, we recruited a total of 2529 adults aged 50-70 years in 2005 and followed them up in 2011. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG, HbA1c, and C-reactive protein (CRP were measured and incident diabetes was identified by the recently updated criteria. Of the 1912 participants without T2DM at baseline, 924 were identified as having T2DM at follow-up, and most of them (72.4% were diagnosed using the HbA1c criterion. Baseline body mass index, FPG, HbA1c, CRP, hypertension, and female gender were all significantly associated with incident T2DM. Based upon these risk factors, a simple score was developed with an estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.714 (95% confidence interval: 0.691, 0.737, which performed better than most of existing risk score models developed for eastern Asian populations. This simple, newly constructed score of six parameters may be useful in predicting T2DM in middle-aged and older Chinese.

  4. Development and validation of risk score for predicting positive repeat prostate biopsy in patients with a previous negative biopsy in a UK population

    Matthews Fiona

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little evidence is available to determine which patients should undergo repeat biopsy after initial benign extended core biopsy (ECB. Attempts have been made to reduce the frequency of negative repeat biopsies using PSA kinetics, density, free-to-total ratios and Kattan's nomogram, to identify men more likely to harbour cancer but no single tool accurately predicts biopsy outcome. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive nomogram to identify men more likely to have a cancer diagnosed on repeat prostate biopsy. Methods Patients with previous benign ECB undergoing repeat biopsy were identified from a database. Association between age, volume, stage, previous histology, PSA kinetics and positive repeat biopsy was analysed. Variables were entered stepwise into logistic regression models. A risk score giving the probability of positive repeat biopsy was estimated. The performance of this score was assessed using receiver characteristic (ROC analysis. Results 110 repeat biopsies were performed in this period. Cancer was detected in 31% of repeat biopsies at Hospital (1 and 30% at Hospital (2. The most accurate predictive model combined age, PSA, PSA velocity, free-to-total PSA ratio, prostate volume and digital rectal examination (DRE findings. The risk model performed well in an independent sample, area under the curve (AUCROC was 0.818 (95% CI 0.707 to 0.929 for the risk model and 0.696 (95% CI 0.472 to 0.921 for the validation model. It was calculated that using a threshold risk score of > 0.2 to identify high risk individuals would reduce repeat biopsies by 39% while identifying 90% of the men with prostate cancer. Conclusion An accurate multi-variable predictive tool to determine the risk of positive repeat prostate biopsy is presented. This can be used by urologists in an outpatient setting to aid decision-making for men with prior benign histology for whom a repeat biopsy is being considered.

  5. Dental caries, salivary parameters and plaque scores as ‎caries risk predictors among 12 year old school children – A ‎follow up study

    Mamata Hebbal; Anil V Ankola; Sharada C Metgud

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Dental caries is a disease with multifactorial etiology and many other factors ‎influence indirectly. The important factors are Streptococci mutans, Lactobacilli counts, saliva ‎flow rate, buffering capacity and past caries experience.‎Objective: To find the association between caries increment and various risk factors: Caries ‎experience, dental plaque, salivary flow rate, buffering capacity, Streptococcus mutans and ‎Lactobacilli counts.‎Method: Dental caries and plaque scores...

  6. A Clinical Scoring Algorithm for Determination of the Risk of Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Adults: A Cohort Study Performed at Ethiopian Health Centers

    Balcha, T. T.; Skogmar, S.; Sturegård, E.; Schön, T.; Winqvist, N.; Reepalu, A.; Jemal, Z. H.; Tibesso, G.; Björk, J; Björkman, P.

    2014-01-01

    Background  The World Health Organization (WHO) tuberculosis (TB) symptom screening instrument (WHO-TB) can identify human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals at low risk of tuberculosis (TB); however, many patients report WHO-TB symptoms and require further TB investigations. We hypothesized that further clinical scoring could classify subjects with a positive WHO-TB screening result (WHO-TB+) for the likelihood of TB. Methods  HIV-infected adults eligible to initiate antiretro...

  7. Association of caregiver quality of care with neurocognitive outcomes in HIV-affected children aged 2-5 years in Uganda.

    Bass, Judith K; Nakasujja, Noeline; Familiar-Lopez, Itziar; Sikorskii, Alla; Murray, Sarah M; Opoka, Robert; Augustinavicius, Jura; Boivin, Michael J

    2016-01-01

    Children affected by HIV are at increased risk of developmental and neuropsychological disturbances due to direct effects of HIV on the brain and direct effects associated with living in poverty. Caregivers can play an important role, through quality caregiving, in mitigating the negative effect of these stressors. This study used baseline data from an ongoing caregiver training intervention trial to evaluate the association between quality of caregiver-child interactions and neurocognitive outcomes in rural HIV-infected and HIV-exposed but uninfected children in Uganda. We also assessed the extent to which caregiver distress moderated this relationship. Data on 329 caregiver-child dyads were collected between March 2012 and July 2014, when the children were between 2 and 5 years of age. Child outcomes include the Mullen Scales of Early Learning to assess general cognitive ability and the Color Object Association Test to assess immediate memory and total recall. Caregiving quality was assessed using the Home Observation for the Measurement of the Environment (HOME) total and subscale scores. Caregiver distress was assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist. General linear regression models assessed the association between the HOME total and subscale scores and child outcomes, with interaction terms used to test moderation by caregiver distress. Total HOME scores were positively and significantly associated with Mullen scores of cognitive ability; HOME acceptance subscale scores were positively and significantly associated with immediate recall scores. No other associations were statistically significant. As hypothesized, there is a strong association between the HOME and Mullen scores of cognitive ability in our study population, such that children who were assessed as living in environments with more stimulation also presented with a higher level of general neurocognitive development. Our results support the view of program guidance for HIV-affected children

  8. Predicting asthma in preschool children at high risk presenting in primary care: Development of a clinical asthma prediction score

    L.B. Van Der Mark (Lonneke); K.E. Wonderen (Karina); J. Mohrs (Jacob); W.M.C. van Aalderen (Willem); G. ter Riet; P.J.E. Bindels (Patrick)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: A setting-specific asthma prediction score for preschool children with wheezing and/or dyspnoea presenting in primary healthcare is needed since existing indices are mainly based on general populations. Aims: To find an optimally informative yet practical set of predictors fo

  9. A Chemical Risk Ranking and Scoring Method for the Selection of Harmful Substances to be Specially Controlled in Occupational Environments

    Saemi Shin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to devise a method for prioritizing hazardous chemicals for further regulatory action. To accomplish this objective, we chose appropriate indicators and algorithms. Nine indicators from the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals were used to identify categories to which the authors assigned numerical scores. Exposure indicators included handling volume, distribution, and exposure level. To test the method devised by this study, sixty-two harmful substances controlled by the Occupational Safety and Health Act in Korea, including acrylamide, acrylonitrile, and styrene were ranked using this proposed method. The correlation coefficients between total score and each indicator ranged from 0.160 to 0.641, and those between total score and hazard indicators ranged from 0.603 to 0.641. The latter were higher than the correlation coefficients between total score and exposure indicators, which ranged from 0.160 to 0.421. Correlations between individual indicators were low (−0.240 to 0.376, except for those between handling volume and distribution (0.613, suggesting that each indicator was not strongly correlated. The low correlations between each indicator mean that the indicators and independent and were well chosen for prioritizing harmful chemicals. This method proposed by this study can improve the cost efficiency of chemical management as utilized in occupational regulatory systems.

  10. A case control study on the risk factors of viral diarrhea in children below 5 years old%5岁以下婴幼儿病毒性腹泻的危险因素配对病例对照研究

    许可; 霍翔; 祖荣强; 李亮; 汤奋扬; 朱凤才; 羊海涛; 汪华

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To assess the risk factors of viral diarrhea among children below 5 years old. Methods:A case-control study was conducted on two groupe of children matched by sex, age with or without viral diarrhea from hospitals in Xuzhou and Zhenjiang area. The pathogen of diarrhea was confirmed by ELISA and RT-PCR methods. Interview was carried out with uniform designed questionnaires. Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis was then performed. Results:Factors that were independently associated with the development of viral diarrhea, would include children's address, weight, parents' Schooling and profession, washing-up sink in kitchen, cutting cooked and uncooked foods by different kitchen knife and target, raising pets, cooker washing hands before cook, the children contacting animals and taking antibiotics one week ago before diarrhea. Anamnesis and rotavims vaccine inoculation were not found associating with viral diarrhea. Multivariate logistic regression model was then fitted with three variables, including washing-up sink in kitchen, cutting cooked and uncooked foods by different kitchen knife and target, taking antibiotics one week ago before diarrhea. The 95% CI of OR was 0.340~0.852, 0.295~0.705 and 2.153~6.227 separately. Conclusion:The risk of viral diarrhea increased with worse hygienic habits and antibiotics taken.%目的:探讨5岁以下婴幼儿病毒性腹泻的危险因素.方法:采用性别、年龄匹配的1:2配对病例对照研究,对江苏省徐州、镇江市县级医疗机构2007年10月至2008年10月收治的5岁以下腹泻儿童500例和对照儿童1 000例进行问卷调查.腹泻的病原体采用酶联免疫吸附剂测定(enzyme linked immunosorbent assay,ELISA)或反转录PCR(reverse transcription-PCR,RT-PCR)进行检测确认.数据采用Cox比例风险模型拟合Logistic回归.结果:单因素分析显示病毒性腹泻患儿的城乡差异、父母受教育程度、职业、家庭饮食卫生(包括厨

  11. Is the association of continuous metabolic syndrome risk score with body mass index independent of physical activity? The CASPIAN-III study

    Heshmat, Ramin; shafiee, Gita; Kelishadi, Roya; Babaki, Amir Eslami Shahr; Motlagh, Mohammad Esmaeil; Arefirad, Tahereh; Ardalan, Gelayol; Ataie-Jafari, Asal; Asayesh, Hamid; Mohammadi, Rasool

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Although the association of body mass index (BMI) with metabolic syndrome (MetS) is well documented, there is little knowledge on the independent and joint associations of BMI and physical activity with MetS risk based on a continuous scoring system. This study was designed to explore the effect of physical activity on interactions between excess body weight and continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) in a nationwide survey of Iranian children and adolescents. SUBJECTS/METHODS Data on 5,625 school students between 10 and 18 years of age were analyzed. BMI percentiles, screen time activity (STA), leisure time physical activity (LTPA) levels, and components of cMetS risk score were extracted. Standardized residuals (z-scores) were calculated for MetS components. Linear regression models were used to study the interactions between different combinations of cMetS, LTPA, and BMI percentiles. RESULTS Overall, 984 (17.5%) subjects were underweight, whereas 501 (8.9%) and 451 (8%) participants were overweight and obese, respectively. All standardized values for cMetS components, except fasting blood glucose level, were directly correlated with BMI percentiles in all models (P-trend < 0.001); these associations were independent of STA and LTPA levels. Linear associations were also observed among LTPA and standardized residuals for blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein, and waist circumference (P-trend < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that BMI percentiles are associated with cMetS risk score independent of LTPA and STA levels. PMID:26244080

  12. Dietary predictors of 5-year changes in waist circumference

    Halkjaer, Jytte; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim;

    2009-01-01

    , whereas snack foods intake was positively associated. Sex differences occurred for vegetables, high-fat dairy products, and processed meat. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a diet low in fruits and red meat and high in snack foods was associated with larger waist circumference gains in both sexes......, baseline diet (192 items food frequency questionnaire), body mass index, and selected potential confounders (eg, smoking status, sport activities, and intake of alcoholic beverages). Multiple linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: For women, 5-year difference in waist circumference was...... inversely related to intake from red meat, vegetables, fruit, butter, and high-fat dairy products, whereas intake from potatoes, processed meat, poultry, and snack foods was positively associated. For men, red meat and fruit intakes were inversely associated with 5-year difference in waist circumference...

  13. Circumcision: a refined technique and 5 year review.

    S. C. Tucker; Cerqueiro, J.; Sterne, G.D.; Bracka, A.

    2001-01-01

    The vast majority of circumcisions currently performed in the UK are for phimosis or balanitis and the patients are not looking for the denuded glans appearance of a ritual circumcision. We present a refinement of the sleeve technique of circumcision, which involves Horton's test to define the proximal incision margin, and bipolar electro-dissection. A review of all patients undergoing circumcision at the Wordsley Plastic Surgery Unit, in a 5-year period, has shown this technique to be safe w...

  14. Undergraduates’ opinion after 5-year experience with rotary endodontic instruments

    Flávia Sens Fagundes Tomazinho; Gisele Aihara Haragushiku; Flares Baratto Filho; Denise Piotto Leonardi; Maria da Graça Kfouri Lopes; Alexandre Moro

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: Dentistry evolution in the past few years has revolutionized daily practice in some specialties. One of these revolutions has occurred in Endodontics due to the advancement of rotary techniques for root canal preparation and its subsequent incorporation into the teaching of Dentistry undergraduates. Objective: The aim of this study was to report a 5-year experience on the undergraduate laboratorial and clinical use of rotary endodontic preparation at a private university. Materi...

  15. Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers

    Benjamin Turney

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers. Materials and Methods Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment. Results At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77% had a high PSF score (> 0.5. Of the 26 patients, 17 (65% showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42% changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5 to a low risk (PSF 0.5 during both assessments. Conclusions The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

  16. Born Near the Limit of Viability – Developmental Outcomes 2.5 Years Later

    Månsson, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    Although advances in neonatal care have resulted in increased survival rates among extremely preterm infants (born < 28 gestational weeks), they still face substantial morbidity risks during the neonatal period. The question of possible later outcomes is a key issue faced by health care professionals working with these infants. Objectives The objective of the present thesis was to explore developmental outcomes of extremely preterm birth at corrected age 2.5 years. The included ...

  17. Risk of simultaneous phenotypic expression of hip and elbow dysplasia in dogs: a study of 1,411 radiographic examinations sent for official scoring.

    Cachon, T; Genevois, J P; Remy, D; Carozzo, C; Viguier, E; Maitre, P; Arnault, F; Fau, D

    2010-01-01

    In order to look for phenotypic correlation between hip (HD) and elbow (ED) dysplasia, we used radiographic scoring obtained from 1,411 dogs of different breeds, which were evaluated for authoritative grading of both conditions. In this population, we found that the risk ratio for an animal to be simultaneously affected by HD and ED is 1.67. For a dog with ED, the risk ratio to be affected by HD increases as the ED grade increases. Similarly, for a dog affected by HD, the risk ratio to be affected by ED increases as the HD grade increases. In a dog affected by HD or ED, the clinician should look for the second condition in the same animal. Due to the low, yet positive correlation, selection against one trait will not affect the other trait sufficiently. Therefore selection has to be conducted at reduction of HD as well as reduction of ED. PMID:19997665

  18. Prone Breast Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy: 5-Year Results

    Osa, Etin-Osa O.; DeWyngaert, Keith [Department of Radiation Oncology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Roses, Daniel [Department of Surgery, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Speyer, James [Department of Medical Oncology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Guth, Amber; Axelrod, Deborah [Department of Surgery, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Fenton Kerimian, Maria [Department of Radiation Oncology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Goldberg, Judith D. [Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Formenti, Silvia C., E-mail: Silvia.formenti@nyumc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: To report the 5-year results of a technique of prone breast radiation therapy delivered by a regimen of accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concurrent boost to the tumor bed. Methods and Materials: Between 2003 and 2006, 404 patients with stage I-II breast cancer were prospectively enrolled into 2 consecutive protocols, institutional trials 03-30 and 05-181, that used the same regimen of 40.5 Gy/15 fractions delivered to the index breast over 3 weeks, with a concomitant daily boost to the tumor bed of 0.5 Gy (total dose 48 Gy). All patients were treated after segmental mastectomy and had negative margins and nodal assessment. Patients were set up prone: only if lung or heart volumes were in the field was a supine setup attempted and chosen if found to better spare these organs. Results: Ninety-two percent of patients were treated prone, 8% supine. Seventy-two percent had stage I, 28% stage II invasive breast cancer. In-field lung volume ranged from 0 to 228.27 cm{sup 3}, mean 19.65 cm{sup 3}. In-field heart volume for left breast cancer patients ranged from 0 to 21.24 cm{sup 3}, mean 1.59 cm{sup 3}. There was no heart in the field for right breast cancer patients. At a median follow-up of 5 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence of isolated ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence was 0.82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65%-1.04%). The 5-year cumulative incidence of regional recurrence was 0.53% (95% CI 0.41%-0.69%), and the 5-year overall cumulative death rate was 1.28% (95% CI 0.48%-3.38%). Eighty-two percent (95% CI 77%-85%) of patients judged their final cosmetic result as excellent/good. Conclusions: Prone accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concomitant boost results in excellent local control and optimal sparing of heart and lung, with good cosmesis. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 1005, a phase 3, multi-institutional, randomized trial is ongoing and is evaluating the equivalence of a similar dose and

  19. Usefulness of J-CAPRA score for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with carbon ion radiotherapy plus androgen deprivation therapy

    A novel risk assessment method, Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment, has been developed based on database of patients receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy. To investigate the usefulness of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment for non-metastatic, high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with carbon ion radio-therapy plus androgen deprivation therapy. Patients with non-metastatic, high-risk prostate cancer (T3, initial prostate specific antigen level ≥20 ng/ml, and/or Gleason score ≥8) were included. The patients were treated with carbon ion radiotherapy (the total dose from 57.6 Gy (relative biological effectiveness)/16 fractions to 66.0 Gy (relative biological effectiveness)/20 fractions), and neoadjuvant as well as adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy for at least 24 months. Four hundred and twenty-six patients were included with the median follow-up of 68.1 months. Of 426, 210 (49.3%), 270 (63.4%) and 251 (58.9%) had Gleason 8-10, prostate specific antigen ≥20 ng/ml and T3, respectively. The 10-year progression-free and cause-specific survival rates in Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment 1-2 group (76.5 and 98.9%) were significantly better than those in Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment 3-6 group (52.6 and 93.1%), (P < 0.001 and P=0.044, respectively). The median progression-free survivals in the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment 1-2 and 3-6 groups were 158.9 months and 125.9 months (95% confidence interval: 108.6-143.2 months), respectively. For non-metastatic, high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with carbon ion radiotherapy plus androgen deprivation therapy, Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score was useful for predicting the progression-free and cause-specific survivals. (author)

  20. The predictive capacity of the Glasgow-Blatchford score for the risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in an emergency department

    José Manuel Recio-Ramírez

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To assess the ability of the Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS system to identify the need for urgent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGIE in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB. Methods: An observational, retrospective study was carried out in all patients attended at the ER for suspected UGIB in one year. Patients were split into two categories -high-risk (>2 and low-risk (≤2- by means of the GBS system. Results: A total of 60 patients were included. Of these, 46 were classified as "high-risk" (> 2 and 14 as "low-risk" (≤ 2 subjects. The characteristics of patients in the low-risk group included: Mean age: 46.6 ± 13.7 (18-88 years. Males/females: 7/7. Urgent endoscopy revealed: normal (50%; n = 7; esophagitis (21.4%; n = 3; gastritis (14.2%; n = 2; Mallory-Weiss syndrome (7.1%; n = 1; non-bleeding varices (7.1%; n = 1. The characteristics of patients in the high-risk group included: Mean age: 68.7 ± 19.8 (31-91 years. Males/females: 30/16. Digestive endoscopy revealed: Gastric/duodenal ulcer (56.52%; n = 26; normal (17.39%; n = 8; esophagitis (8.69%; n = 4; gastritis (8.69%; n = 4; angioectasia (4.34%; n = 2; bleeding varices (4.34%; n = 2. Low-risk patients exhibited no lesions requiring urgent management during endoscopy, and the sensitivity of the GBS scale for high-risk UGIB detection was found to be 100% (95% CI: 86.27%, 99.71%, with a specificity of 48.28% (95% CI: 29.89, 67.1%. Conclusions: The GBS scale seems to accurately identify patients with low-risk UGIB, who may be managed on an outpatient basis and undergo delayed upper GI endoscopy at the outpatient clinic.

  1. Validation of Indian diabetic risk score in diagnosing type 2 diabetes mellitus against high fasting blood sugar levels among adult population of central India.

    Bhadoria, Ajeet Singh; Kasar, Pradeep Kumar; Toppo, Neelam Anupama

    2015-01-01

    Globally the increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is major public health concern. The Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) was developed by Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF) as a simple tool to help detect undiagnosed type 2 DM (T2DM) in the community. We conducted a study among 911 adults of Jabalpur District to validate the IDRS score against increased fasting blood sugar levels in diagnosing T2DM. T2DM was confirmed either by history of previously known disease or fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dl on two occasions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Youden index (sensitivity + specificity -1), likelihood ratio for positive test, and likelihood ratio for negative test were calculated for IDRS cut-offs of ≥20, ≥40, ≥60, and ≥80 against the presence of T2DM (either known diabetic or fasting plasma glucose >126 mg/dl on two occasions). The overall prevalence of T2DM was 9.99% (95% confidence interval, 8.04-11.94%). In the Receiver operating characteristic analysis, IDRS had an area under the curve of 0.736 (P indicate that IDRS has excellent predictive value for detecting undiagnosed diabetes in the community and IDRS is also a much stronger risk indicator than examining individual risk factors like age, family history, obesity, or physical activity. PMID:25355391

  2. Energy in the USSR during the tenth 5-year plan

    The Soviet Union is the only industrial power in the world whose economic development is based on its own fuel and energy resources. The extraction and transformation of these resources are carried-out by the fuel and energy complex, which includes the petrol, refining, gas, coal and schist and peat oils industries as well as the electro-energy industry. In 1980, at the end of the tenth 5-year plan, the increase in the extraction of petrol and gas mainly came from areas in western Siberia. The programme of nuclear plants with the help of Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia is developed. Prospect in MHD generators and in new energies are given

  3. Role of Changes in Ca and Mg Concentrations in the Development of Heart Rate Turbulence in People with Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Events According to the SCORE Charts

    Vytryhovskyy, A. I.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of the research was to determine the correlation between the occurrence and progression of ventricular arrhythmias as well as the increase in heart rate turbulence in patients at a high and very high cardiovascular risk according to the SCORE charts and serum levels of calcium and magnesium.            Materials and methods. 603 patients were examined to determine the role of heart rate variability in the cardiovascular continuum; 319 patients were examined to study the role of ...

  4. Scoring methods and results for qualitative evaluation of public health impacts from the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Integrated Risk Assessment Program

    The objective of this analysis is to qualitatively rank the Hanford Site high-level waste (HLW) tanks according to their potential public health impacts through various (groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric) exposure pathways. Data from all 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 23 of the 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs) in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program were analyzed for chemical and radiological carcinogenic as well as chemical noncarcinogenic health impacts. The preliminary aggregate score (PAS) ranking system was used to generate information from various release scenarios. Results based on the PAS ranking values should be considered relative health impacts rather than absolute risk values

  5. Long Term Results (>5 Years) in Patients With Peritoneovenous Shunting for Intractable Ascites: Liver Function and Cancer Mortality

    Meakins, Jonathan L.; Wu, Andrew; Smadja, Claude; Bonnet, Patrick; Gouffier, Etienne; Campillo, Bernard

    1989-01-01

    This report is based on twenty-eight (26%) of 107 patients included in a protocol for prospective evaluation of elective peritoneo-venous shunting for intractable ascites in cirrhosis. These patients had no other procedures and survived more than 5 years after the operation. All patients were free of ascites except one in whom it was mild. One patient refused follow-up. Shunt patency was assessed in 23 patients. In 14 patients (60.9%), the shunt was obstructed and the superior vena cava was occluded in 5 of them. In 9 patients (39.1%), the shunt was still functioning. No clinical or biological parameters differentiated these two groups of patients. Of the 24 patients who were alcoholics, 2 abstained completely and 20 significantly reduced their drinking habits. In 25 patients, the Pugh's score improved and was A at the time of the study. Seven patients (25.9%) developed a malignant tumor of the oro-pharynx or digestive tract, all other patients were alive and in good health. This study suggests that patients with intractable ascites treated by a peritoneo-venous shunt may survive for a long period. In patients abstaining from heavy drinking, it may function as a therapeutic bridge permitting spontaneous improvement of liver function. The risk of supervening neoplasms suggests that a continuous follow-up of these patients is warranted. PMID:2487384

  6. Annual Papanicolaou screening for 5 years among human papillomavirus-negative women

    Primary human papilloma virus (HPV) screening is more effective than cytology in reducing the risk of cervical cancer, but screening intervals should be extended in HPV-negative women. However, some Markov models predicted that long intervals are associated with an excess risk of cervical cancer. The aim of this analysis was to estimate the real-life risks and benefits of annual Papanicolaou (Pap) screening in HPV-negative women with normal cytology. Women with negative Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) results and normal cytology at the time of inclusion in the Hannover HPV screening trial underwent annual Pap smears for 5 years. A subgroup was randomly selected for retesting with cytology, HC2, and colposcopy 60–68 months after recruitment. Of 4236 women included, 3406 had at least one Pap smear, but only 1185 attended all five annual screening visits. The proportion of women with at least one abnormal smear was 14.4% in 60 months. The probability of abnormal smears increased continuously over time. No case of ≥ CIN2+ was observed during 5 years. Of 605 women selected for subgroup analysis, 292 agreed to be retested (48.3%). The rate of high-risk HPV at 60–68 months was 3.0% (9/296). The long-term risk of high-grade neoplasia after an initial negative HC2 test and normal cytology result was low, while the rate of false-positive abnormal Pap smears was significant and increased constantly over time. Pap smear screening of HPV-negative women more frequently than every 5 years could be potentially harmful and seems to be of little clinical value

  7. Short term clinical disease progression in HIV-1 positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy : The EuroSIDA risk-score

    Mocroft, A; Ledergerber, B; Zilmer, K;

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND METHODS: Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS/death in......OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND METHODS: Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS....../death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). RESULTS: In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval...... (CI), 2.7-3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk...

  8. Credit scoring

    Sánchez Bilbao, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    RESUMEN: El credit scoring es un sistema de modelos de decisión a través del cual se calcula la probabilidad de que un sujeto sea capaz de devolver o no un crédito comercial. Este trabajo realiza una simulación de este modelo con la intención de familiarizarse con el funcionamiento del mismo, así como con el marco teórico que este conlleva. El uso del credit scoring da respuesta a un problema generalizado en las entidades financieras como es la correcta estimación y valoración del riesg...

  9. Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael;

    2015-01-01

    antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. METHODS AND...... independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4...

  10. Advanced paternal age and mortality of offspring under 5 years of age

    Urhoj, S K; Jespersen, Louise Norman; Nissen, Marie;

    2014-01-01

    and external causes. What is known already: Advanced paternal age has previously been associated with adverse reproductive outcomes and some long term health problems in the offspring. This is possibly due to specific point mutations, a condition known to increase in the sperm with increasing paternal......Study question: Do children born to fathers of advanced age have an increased risk of dying before the age of 5 years? Summary answer: Children born to fathers aged 40 years or more have an increased risk of dying in early childhood due to an excess risk of fatal congenital anomalies, malignancies...... Labour Market Research, the Medical Birth Registry and the Registry of Causes of Death was linked using the unique civil registry number. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the risk of under-five mortality. The effect of paternal age was examined using restricted...

  11. Second-generation autologous chondrocyte transplantation: MRI findings and clinical correlations at a minimum 5-year follow-up

    Kon, E. [Biomechanics Laboratory, III Clinic, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Via Di Barbiano 1/10, 40136 Bologna (Italy); Di Martino, A., E-mail: a.dimartino@biomec.ior.it [Biomechanics Laboratory, III Clinic, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Via Di Barbiano 1/10, 40136 Bologna (Italy); Filardo, G. [Biomechanics Laboratory, III Clinic, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Via Di Barbiano 1/10, 40136 Bologna (Italy); Tetta, C.; Busacca, M. [Radiology, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Bologna (Italy); Iacono, F. [Biomechanics Laboratory, III Clinic, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Via Di Barbiano 1/10, 40136 Bologna (Italy); Delcogliano, M. [Orthopaedic Departement San Carlo di Nancy Hospital, Rome (Italy); Albisinni, U. [Radiology, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Bologna (Italy); Marcacci, M. [Biomechanics Laboratory, III Clinic, Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute, Via Di Barbiano 1/10, 40136 Bologna (Italy)

    2011-09-15

    Objective: To evaluate the clinical outcome of hyaluronan-based arthroscopic autologous chondrocyte transplantation at a minimum of 5 years of follow-up and to correlate it with the MRI evaluation parameters. Methods: Fifty consecutive patients were included in the study and evaluated clinically using the Cartilage Standard Evaluation Form as proposed by ICRS and the Tegner score. Forty lesions underwent MRI evaluation at a minimum 5-year follow-up. For the description and evaluation of the graft, we employed the MOCART-scoring system. Results: A statistically significant improvement in all clinical scores was observed at 2 and over 5 years. The total MOCART score and the signal intensity (3D-GE-FS) of the repair tissue were statistically correlated to the IKDC subjective evaluation. Larger size of the treated cartilage lesions had a negative influence on the degree of defect repair and filling, the integration to the border zone and the subchondral lamina integrity, whereas more intensive sport activity had a positive influence on the signal intensity of the repair tissue, the repair tissue surface, and the clinical outcome. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the durability of the clinical results obtained with Hyalograft C and the usefulness of MRI as a non-invasive method for the evaluation of the repaired tissue and the outcome after second-generation autologous transplantation over time.

  12. Disability in young adults following major trauma: 5 year follow up of survivors

    Connelly James B

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Injuries are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in young people. Despite this, the long-term consequences for young survivors of severe injury are relatively unexplored. Methods Population based cohort study involving 5 year post injury structured interview of all cases of major trauma (Injury Severity Score > 15 identified retrospectively for 12 month period (1988 to 1989 within former Yorkshire Health Authority area of the United Kingdom. Results 125 individuals aged 11–24 years at time of injury were identified. Of these, 109 (87% were interviewed. Only 20% (95% CI 14–29% of those interviewed reported no disability. Mean Office of Population Census and Surveys (OPCS disability score of the remainder was 7.5 (median 5.8, range 0.5 to 19.4. The most commonly encountered areas of disability were behaviour (54%, 95% CI 45–63%, intellectual functioning (39%, 95% CI 31–49% and locomotion (29%, 95% CI 22–39%. Many respondents reported that their daily lives were adversely affected by their health problems for example, causing problems with work, 54% (95% CI 45–63%, or looking after the home, 28% (95% CI 21–38%. Higher OPCS scores were usually but not always associated with greater impact on daily activities. The burden of caring responsibilities fell largely on informal carers. 51% (95% CI 42–61% of those interviewed would have liked additional help to cope with their injury and disability. Conclusion The study has revealed significant disability amongst a cohort of young people 5 years post severe injury. Whilst many of these young people were coping well with the consequences of their injuries, others reported continuing problems with the activities of daily life. The factors underpinning the young people's differing experiences and social outcome should be explored.

  13. Endocrine dysfunction following traumatic brain injury: a 5-year follow-up nationwide-based study

    Yang, Wei-Hsun; Chen, Pau-Chung; Wang, Ting-Chung; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Cheng, Chun-Yu; Yang, Yao-Hsu

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic endocrine dysfunction is a complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is lack of long-term follow-up and large sample size studies. This study included patients suffering from TBI registered in the Health Insurance Database. Endocrine disorders were identified using the ICD codes: 244 (acquired hypothyroidism), 253 (pituitary dysfunction), 255 (disorders of the adrenal glands), 258 (polyglandular dysfunction), and 259 (other endocrine disorders) with at least three outpatient visits within 1 year or one admission diagnosis. Overall, 156,945 insured subjects were included in the final analysis. The 1- and 5-year incidence rates of post-traumatic endocrinopathies were 0.4% and 2%, respectively. The risks of developing a common endocrinopathy (p endocrine dysfunction after TBI increased during the entire 5-year follow-up period. Skull bone fracture and intracranial hemorrhage may be associated with short and long-term post-traumatic pituitary dysfunction, respectively. PMID:27608606

  14. Developmental potential in the first 5 years for children in developing countries.

    Grantham-McGregor, Sally; Cheung, Yin Bun; Cueto, Santiago; Glewwe, Paul; Richter, Linda; Strupp, Barbara

    2007-01-01

    Many children younger than 5 years in developing countries are exposed to multiple risks, including poverty, malnutrition, poor health, and unstimulating home environments, which detrimentally affect their cognitive, motor, and social-emotional development. There are few national statistics on the development of young children in developing countries. We therefore identified two factors with available worldwide data--the prevalence of early childhood stunting and the number of people living in absolute poverty--to use as indicators of poor development. We show that both indicators are closely associated with poor cognitive and educational performance in children and use them to estimate that over 200 million children under 5 years are not fulfilling their developmental potential. Most of these children live in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These disadvantaged children are likely to do poorly in school and subsequently have low incomes, high fertility, and provide poor care for their children, thus contributing to the intergenerational transmission of poverty. PMID:17208643

  15. CHA2DS2-VASc score, left atrial size and atrial fibrillation as stroke risk factors in the Tromsø Study

    Tiwari, Sweta; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Jacobsen, Bjarne K; Hopstock, Laila A; Nyrnes, Audhild; Njølstad, Inger; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Schirmer, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Objective CHA2DS2-VASc score, left atrial (LA) size and atrial fibrillation (AF) have individually been associated with stroke risk. Our aim was to investigate the predictive ability of combinations of these factors for the odds of incident stroke in a population-based cohort study. Methods We followed 2844 participants from the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2012. Information on LA size and CHA2DS2-VASc score (age, sex, congestive heart failure, hypertension, vascular disease, stroke and diabetes) were obtained at baseline. AF status was recorded from medical records. The outcome measure was all strokes. The association between covariates and stroke was investigated by means of multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 325 participants (45% women, mean age at baseline 59.3 years) had a stroke. Incidence rates for stroke were 6.4 in women and 8.4 in men per 1000 person-years. Participants with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥1 and LA size <2.8 had ∼4 times (95% CI 2.6 to 5.3) increased odds of stroke, whereas participants with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥1 and LA size ≥2.8 had ∼9 times (95% CI 5.3 to 16.4) increased odds of stroke, compared with participants with CHA2DS2-VASc score 0, irrespective of AF status. Adjustment for significant covariates had minimal impact on the OR estimates. Conclusions Combining CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1 and enlarged LA size identified participants with high odds of stroke regardless of AF status.

  16. Score Correlation

    Fabián, Z. (Zdeněk)

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we study a distribution-dependent correlation coefficient based on the concept of scalar score. This new measure of association of continuous random variables is compared by means of simulation experiments with the Pearson, Kendall and Spearman correlation coefficients.

  17. Score Correlation

    Fabián, Zdeněk

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 6 (2010), s. 793-798. ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/1079 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : score function * correlation * rank correlation coefficient * heavy tails Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.511, year: 2010

  18. Multimarker Strategy for Short-Term Risk Assessment in Patients With Dyspnea in the Emergency Department The MARKED (Multi mARKer Emergency Dyspnea)-Risk Score

    Eurlings, Luc W.; Sanders-van Wijk, Sandra; van Kimmenade, Roland; Osinski, Aart; van Helmond, Lidwien; Vallinga, Maud; Crijns, Harry J.; van Dieijen-Visser, Marja P.; Brunner-La Rocca, Hans-Peter; Pinto, Yigal M.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The study aim was to determine the prognostic value of a multimarker strategy for risk-assessment in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with dyspnea. Background Combining biomarkers with different pathophysiological backgrounds may improve risk stratification in dyspneic

  19. Planned and unplanned complex suicides: a 5-year retrospective study.

    Racette, Stéphanie; Sauvageau, Anny

    2007-03-01

    The notion of planned and unplanned complex suicides first appeared in 1974 by Marcinkowski and, since then, no systematic study of complex suicides has been published in the English forensic literature. Here, the authors present a 5-year retrospective study of complex suicides. Nineteen complex suicides were reviewed: five unplanned and 14 planned, including the first case of an unplanned complex suicide in a woman. All cases were analyzed in terms of gender, age, methods of suicide, the presence of a suicide note, and past suicide attempts, and statistically compared with a 50-case sample of simple suicides. A further comparison was established with compiled data from the literature. Similarities were revealed regarding incidence of complex suicides, male gender predominance, and types of methods used. In contrast, results showed a higher average age for planned complex suicide victims. Finally, the authors discuss the application of the complex suicide definition. PMID:17316249

  20. Combined Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Score for Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

    Zhao, Na; Mi, Lan; Liu, Xiaojun; Pan, Shuo; Xu, Jiaojiao; Xia, Dongyu; Liu, Zhongwei; Zhang, Yong; Xiang, Yu; Yuan, Zuyi; Guan, Gongchang; Wang, Junkui

    2015-01-01

    Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) content can both independently predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We investigated the combined predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the first time. We enrolled 480 ACS patients. During a median follow-up time of 37.2 months,...

  1. A melanoma risk score in a Brazilian population Um escore de risco para melanoma em uma população brasileira

    Lucio Bakos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Important risk factors for cutaneous melanoma (CM are recognized, but standardized scores for individual assessment must still be developed. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to develop a risk score of CM for a Brazilian sample. METHODS: To verify the estimates of the main risk factors for melanoma, derived from a meta-analysis (Italian-based study, and externally validate them in a population in southern Brazil by means of a case-control study. A total of 117 individuals were evaluated. Different models were constructed combining the summary coefficients of different risk factors, derived from the meta-analysis, multiplied by the corresponding category of each variable for each participant according to a mathematical expression. RESULTS: the variable that best predicted the risk of CM in the studied population was hair color (AUC: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.62-0.79. Other important factors were freckles, sunburn episodes, and skin and eye color. Consideration of other variables such as common nevi, elastosis, family history, and premalignant lesions did not improve the predictive ability of the models. CONCLUSION: The discriminating capacity of the proposed model proved to be superior or comparable to that of previous risk models proposed for CM. FUNDAMENTOS: importantes fatores de risco para melanoma cutâneo são reconhecidos, mas escores padronizados para avaliação individual ainda precisam ser elaborados. OBJETIVOS: o objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um escore de risco de melanoma cutâneo para uma amostra brasileira. MÉTODOS: verificar as estimativas dos principais fatores de risco para melanoma, derivado de uma meta-análise (estudo de base italiano e, externamente, validar em uma população do sul do Brasil por um estudo caso-controle. Um total de 117 indivíduos foram avaliados. RESULTADOS: a variável com maior poder preditivo para o risco de melanoma cutâneo na população estudada foi a cor do cabelo (AUC: 0

  2. Psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts in Swedish survivors of the 2004 southeast Asia tsunami : a 5 year matched cohort study

    Arnberg, Filip K.; Gudmundsdóttir, Ragnhildur; Butwicka, Agnieszka; Fang, Fang; Lichtenstein, Paul; Hultman, Christina M; Valdimarsdóttir, Unnur A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Survivors of natural disasters are thought to be at an increased risk of psychiatric disorders, however the extent of this risk, and whether it is linked to pre-existing psychopathology, is not known. We aimed to establish whether Swedish survivors of tsunamis from the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake had increased risks of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts 5 years after repatriation. Methods We identified Swedish survivors repatriated from southeast Asia (8762 adults and 3...

  3. The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

    Kellett, John

    2011-08-01

    ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

  4. Fitness and Your 4-to 5-Year Old

    ... throughout their lives. And staying fit can improve self-esteem , prevent obesity, and decrease the risk of serious illnesses such as high blood ... Parents MORE ON THIS TOPIC Nutrition & Fitness Center Kids ...

  5. A Study on Distribution and Determinants of Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS Among Rural Population of West Bengal

    Ranadip Chowdhury

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The burden of diabetes is expected to increase by 58%, from 51 million people in 2010 to 87 million in 2030. In rural India the prevalence rate has increased from 1% to 4-10% over last 20 years. IDRS is a cost-effective & simple method for identifying undiagnosed diabetic subject at community level. Objectives: To find out the distribution of IDRS among the study population and to determine the association of IDRS with socio-demographic & anthropometric factors. Methods: This community based cross-sectional study was carried out in the rural practice area of (Daspara, Amdanga Block Dept. of Community Medicine, R.G.Kar Medical College among 250 undiagnosed diabetic people aged ≥ 20 years in August’11 by using a predesigned & pretested schedule containing age, Physical activity, H/o Diabetes in family sex& waist circumference (IDRS component and religion, SE status, , blood pressure and various anthropometric measurements. Results: Out of 250, 235 (94% responded. 133(56.6% were females & 102 (43.4% were males. 108 (46% had moderate risk (IDRS 30-50; 74(31.5% had high risk (IDRS≥60 and 53(22.6% had low risk (IDRS<30. In Multinomial Logistic Regression if low IDRS is compared with moderate IDRS female sex (OR-.183, BMI, hypertension (OR-.194 were found to be statistically significant and if low IDRS is compared with high IDRS female sex (OR-.202 , hypertension (OR-.13 & BMI were found to be statistically significant. By doing multinomial logistic regression hip circumference was also found to be statistical significantly associated with IDRS in both male and female. Conclusion: As the study finds that percentage of low IDRS is low among the three categories of IDRS, it is essential to implement the simple IDRS tool in the community for mass screening so that proper intervention can be carried out to reduce the burden of diabetes. [National J of Med Res 2012; 2(3.000: 282-286

  6. Evidence of functional declining and global comorbidity measured at baseline proved to be the strongest predictors for long-term death in elderly community residents aged 85 years: a 5-year follow-up evaluation, the OCTABAIX study

    Formiga, Francesc; Ferrer, Assumpta; Padros, Gloria; Montero, Abelardo; Gimenez-Argente, Carme; Corbella, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate the predictive value of functional impairment, chronic conditions, and laboratory biomarkers of aging for predicting 5-year mortality in the elderly aged 85 years. Methods Predictive value for mortality of different geriatric assessments carried out during the OCTABAIX study was evaluated after 5 years of follow-up in 328 subjects aged 85 years. Measurements included assessment of functional status comorbidity, along with laboratory tests on vitamin D, cholesterol, CD4/CD8 ratio, hemoglobin, and serum thyrotropin. Results Overall, the mortality rate after 5 years of follow-up was 42.07%. Bivariate analysis showed that patients who survived were predominantly female (P=0.02), and they showed a significantly better baseline functional status for both basic (P<0.001) and instrumental (P<0.001) activities of daily living (Barthel and Lawton index), better cognitive performance (Spanish version of the Mini-Mental State Examination) (P<0.001), lower comorbidity conditions (Charlson) (P<0.001), lower nutritional risk (Mini Nutritional Assessment) (P<0.001), lower risk of falls (Tinetti gait scale) (P<0.001), less percentage of heart failure (P=0.03) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P=0.03), and took less chronic prescription drugs (P=0.002) than nonsurvivors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified a decreased score in the Lawton index (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.78–0.91) and higher comorbidity conditions (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.08–1.33) as independent predictors of mortality at 5 years in the studied population. Conclusion The ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living and the global comorbidity assessed at baseline were the predictors of death, identified in our 85-year-old community-dwelling subjects after 5 years of follow-up. PMID:27143867

  7. Outcome and Prognostic Factors for Traumatic Endophthalmitis over a 5-Year Period.

    Nicoară, Simona Delia; Irimescu, Iulian; Călinici, Tudor; Cristian, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To evaluate the outcome and identify the prognostic factors of traumatic endophthalmitis over a 5-year period. Methods. We reviewed the medical records of all the traumatic endophthalmities that we treated in our department over the last 5 years (2009-2013). We extracted the following parameters: age, gender, wound anatomy, associated ocular lesions, treatment, and initial and final visual acuities. We used the program SPSS version 20.0.0. for the statistical analysis of our data. Results. During the last 5 years, we treated 14 traumatic endophthalmities, representing 46.66% of all types of endophthalmities. The infection rate in open globe injuries was 8.13% and 34.78%, if an intraocular foreign body (IOFB) was associated. All the patients were males with the median age of 37 years. Initial visual acuities varied between light perception and 0.4 and the timing of treatment from a few hours to 10 days. We administered antibiotic and anti-inflammatory drugs, systemically and intravitreally, in all cases. We performed pars plana vitrectomy in 64.28% of cases. In 57.14% of cases, the final visual acuity was 0.1 or more. Conclusions. IOFBs increased significantly the risk for endophthalmitis. The worse prognostic factors were retinal detachment at presentation and delayed treatment. This trial is registered with IRCT2014082918966N1. PMID:25302113

  8. Salt repository sealing materials development program: 5-year work plan

    This plan covers 5 years (fiscal years 1986 through 1990) of work in the repository sealing materials program to support design decisions and licensing activities for a salt repository. The plan covers a development activity, not a research activity. There are firm deliverables as the end points of each part of the work. The major deliverables are: development plans for code development and materials testing; seal system components models; seal system performance specifications; seal materials specifications; and seal materials properties ''handbook.'' The work described in this plan is divided into three general tasks as follows: mathematical modeling; materials studies (salt, cementitious materials, and earthen materials); and large-scale testing. Each of the sections presents an overview, status, planned activities, and summary of program milestones. This plan will be the starting point for preparing the development plans described above, but is subject to change if preparation of the work plan indicates that a different approach or sequence is preferable to achieve the ultimate goal, i.e., support of design and licensing

  9. Undergraduates’ opinion after 5-year experience with rotary endodontic instruments

    Flávia Sens Fagundes Tomazinho

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Dentistry evolution in the past few years has revolutionized daily practice in some specialties. One of these revolutions has occurred in Endodontics due to the advancement of rotary techniques for root canal preparation and its subsequent incorporation into the teaching of Dentistry undergraduates. Objective: The aim of this study was to report a 5-year experience on the undergraduate laboratorial and clinical use of rotary endodontic preparation at a private university. Material and methods: Data survey was performed by using a questionnaire composed of nine objective questions; the questionnaire was answered by the undergraduates. Results: The results showed a positive acceptance regarding the undergraduate teaching of the rotary technique (94.7%. The following advantages were highlighted: faster root canal preparation (91.6% and reduction of patient’s stress (80.9%. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the experience with the two undergraduate groups was excellent due to the high acceptance level of the new technique by the students.

  10. Conservative management of chronic gastric volvulus:44 cases over 5 years

    Yao-Chun; Hsu; Chin-Lin; Perng; Jai-Jen; Tsai; Hwai-Jeng; Lin

    2010-01-01

    AIM:To investigate clinical outcomes of patients with chronic gastric volvulus(GV)who were managed conservatively over a 5-year period.METHODS:A total of 44 consecutive patients with chronic GV,as diagnosed by barium study between October 2002 and July 2008 were investigated.All of these patients received conservative management initially without anatomical correction.Their clinical manifestations,diagnostic work-ups,and clinical outcomes were analyzed.We sought to identify independent risk factors for poor...

  11. Development of an indoor air quality checklist for risk assessment of indoor air pollutants by semiquantitative score in nonindustrial workplaces

    Syazwan AI

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available AI Syazwan1, B Mohd Rafee1, Juahir Hafizan2, AZF Azman1, AM Nizar3, Z Izwyn4, AA Muhaimin5, MA Syafiq Yunos6, AR Anita1, J Muhamad Hanafiah1, MS Shaharuddin1, A Mohd Ibthisham7, Mohd Hasmadi Ismail8, MN Mohamad Azhar1, HS Azizan1, I Zulfadhli9, J Othman101Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 2Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 3Pharmacology Unit, Department of Human Anatomy, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 4Department of Therapy and Rehabilitation, Faculty of Health Science and Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor, Malaysia; 5Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 6Plant Assessment Technology (PAT, Industrial Technology Division (BTI, Malaysian Nuclear Agency (Nuklear Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Malaysia; 7Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia; 8Department of Forest Production, Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia; 9Faculty of Built Environment and Architect, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia; 10Department of Counsellor Education and Counselling Psychology (DCECP, Faculty of Educational Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, MalaysiaBackground: To meet the current diversified health needs in workplaces, especially in nonindustrial workplaces in developing countries, an indoor air quality (IAQ component of a participatory occupational safety and health survey should be included.Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and suggest a multidisciplinary, integrated IAQ checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants. This IAQ checklist proposed to support

  12. Social competence of 3 to 5-year-old children born with low birth weight

    Nurul Komariah

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Low birth weight (LBW has long been used as an indicator of public health. Low birth weight is not a proxy for any dimension of other maternal or perinatal health outcomes. Low birth weight infants require special care, and have more chronic conditions, learning delays, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorders compared to infants of normal birth weight (NBW. Social competence is viewed as a primary component of healthy function and development and is an important predictor of academic and financial success. Objective To examine social competence of children aged 3-5 years born with low birth weight. Methods This cross-sectional study was undertaken in Palembang in 2012. Subjects consisted of children aged 3-5 years attended a preschool in the Seberang Ulu I District, Palembang, and were divided into two groups: low birth weight (LBW and normal birth weight (NBW. Social competence was assessed by observation and Interaction Rating Scale (IRS and Parenting Style questionnaire (PSQ. Chi-square analysis was used to compare social competence between the two groups. Multivariate regression logistic analysis was used to assess for the dominant factors that may affect a child’s social competence. Results Low birth weight children aged 3 to 5 years had a 1.435 times higher risk of low social competence compared to normal birth weight children of similar age. (RP 1.435; 95%CI 1.372 to 13.507; P=0.019. Multivariate regression logistic analysis revealed that parenting style was a dominant factor affecting social competence. Conclusion Social competence in 3 to 5-year-old children born with low birth weight is lower compared to those with normal birth weight. [Paediatr Indones. 2015;55:158-63.].

  13. A 5-Year Investigation of Children's Adaptive Functioning Following Conformal Radiation Therapy for Localized Ependymoma

    Purpose: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies have the potential to preserve cognitive outcomes in children with ependymoma; however, functional behavior remains uninvestigated. This longitudinal investigation prospectively examined intelligence quotient (IQ) and adaptive functioning during the first 5 years after irradiation in children diagnosed with ependymoma. Methods and Materials: The study cohort consisted of 123 children with intracranial ependymoma. Mean age at irradiation was 4.60 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-5.35). Serial neurocognitive evaluations, including an age-appropriate IQ measure and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS), were completed before irradiation, 6 months after treatment, and annually for 5 years. A total of 579 neurocognitive evaluations were included in these analyses. Results: Baseline IQ and VABS were below normative means (P<.05), although within the average range. Linear mixed models revealed stable IQ and VABS across the follow-up period, except for the VABS Communication Index, which declined significantly (P=.015). Annual change in IQ (−.04 points) did not correlate with annual change in VABS (−.90 to +.44 points). Clinical factors associated with poorer baseline performance (P<.05) included preirradiation chemotherapy, cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement, number and extent of surgical resections, and younger age at treatment. No clinical factors significantly affected the rate of change in scores. Conclusions: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies provided relative sparing of functional outcomes including IQ and adaptive behaviors, even in very young children. Communication skills remained vulnerable and should be the target of preventive and rehabilitative interventions.

  14. A 5-year prospective observational study of the outcomes of international treatment guidelines for Crohn's disease.

    Cullen, Garret

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Therapeutic strategies for patients with Crohn\\'s disease are based on American and European guidelines. High rates of corticosteroid dependency and low remission rates are identified as weaknesses of this therapy and as justification for early introduction of biologic agents (top-down treatment) in moderate\\/severe Crohn\\'s disease. We reviewed outcomes and corticosteroid-dependency rates of patients with moderate-to-severe disease who were treated according to the international guidelines. METHODS: Consecutive patients (102) newly diagnosed with Crohn\\'s disease in 2000-2002 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Severity of disease was scored using the Harvey-Bradshaw Index (HBI). Disease was classified by Montreal classification. Five-year follow-up data were recorded. RESULTS: Seventy-two patients had moderate\\/severe disease at diagnosis (HBI >8). Fifty-four (75%) had nonstricturing, nonpenetrating disease (B1). Sixty-four (89%) received corticosteroids, and 44 (61%) received immunomodulators. Twenty-one patients (29%) received infliximab. Thirty-nine patients (54%) required resection surgery. At a median of 5 years, 66 of 72 (92%) patients with moderate\\/severe disease were in remission (median HBI, 1). Twenty-five patients (35%) required neither surgery nor biologic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: When international treatment guidelines are strictly followed, Crohn\\'s disease patients can achieve high rates of remission and low rates of morbidity at 5 years. Indiscriminate use of biologic agents therefore is not appropriate for all patients with moderate-to-severe disease.

  15. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  16. Internal Model of Commercial Bank as an Instrument for Measuring Credit Risk of the Borrower in Relation to Financial Performance (Credit Scoring and Bankruptcy Models

    Belás Jaroslav

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Commercial banks generally use different methods and procedures for managing credit risk. The internal rating method in which the client has an important position in the process of granting credit provides a comprehensive assessment of client creditworthiness. The aim of this article is to analyze selected theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of internal rating models of commercial banks within the context of models that measures financial performance and to make a comparison of results of real - rating models which are used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The results of the chosen credit scoring and bankruptcy methods on selected companies from segments of small and medium-sized companies are presented.

  17. Does Future Diabetes Risk Impair Current Quality of Life? A Cross-Sectional Study of Health-Related Quality of Life in Relation to the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC)

    Väätäinen, Saku; Cederberg, Henna; Roine, Risto; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Saramies, Jouko; Uusitalo, Hannu; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Martikainen, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Present study examines the relationship between the estimated risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We quantify the association between Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and HRQoL, and examine the potential use of FINDRISC as tool to evaluate HRQoL indirectly. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study comprising 707 Finnish people without a diagnosis of T2D between the ages of 51 and 75 years. The risk of developing T2D was assessed using the validated and widely used FINDRISC (range 0–26 points), and quality of life was measured using two preference-based HRQoL instruments (15D and SF-6D) and one health profile instrument (SF-36). Effects of the individual FINDRISC items and demographic and clinical characteristics, such as co-morbidities, on HRQoL were studied using multivariable Tobit regression models. Results Low HRQoL was significantly and directly associated with the estimated risk of developing T2D. An approximate 4–5 point change in FINDRISC score was observed to be associated with clinically noticeable changes in the preference-based instrument HRQoL index scores. The association between HRQoL and the risk of developing T2D was also observed for most dimensions of HRQoL in all applied HRQoL instruments. Overall, old age, lack of physical activity, obesity, and history of high blood glucose were the FINDRISC factors most prominently associated with lower HRQoL. Conclusions The findings may help the health care professionals to substantiate the possible improvement in glucose metabolism and HRQoL potentially achieved by lifestyle changes, and better convince people at high risk of T2D to take action towards healthier lifestyle habits. FINDRISC may also provide an accurate proxy for HRQoL, and thus by estimating the risk of T2D with the FINDRISC, information about patients’ HRQoL may also be obtained indirectly, when it is not feasible to use HRQoL instruments. PMID:26840374

  18. A MultiFactorial Risk Score to weigh toxicities and co-morbidities relative to costs of antiretrovirals in a cohort of HIV-infected patients

    M Tontodonati

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study: Considering costs of antiretrovirals (ARVs for HIV patients is increasingly needed. A simple and comprehensive tool weighing comorbidities and ARV-related toxicities could be useful to judge the appropriateness of use of more expensive drugs. We conceived a MultiFactorial Risk Score (MFRS to evaluate the appropriateness of ARVs prescription relative to their costs. Methods: HIV patients were consecutively enrolled in 2010-2011. We considered socio-demographic characteristics, HIV history, cardiovascular risk factors, low energy fractures, bone density. Psychological factors were assessed by BDI, DS14 and TAS-20. The MFRS was calculated as the sum of the following: age (<30y 1 point; 1 point increase every 5y, 10 for≥70; AIDS diagnosis (5; CD4 nadir (5 if <100; 1 point less every 100 CD4 increase; ART line (0 first, up to 5 for≥6 lines; lipodistrophy (5; HCV coinfection (7; education (1 degree, 2 secondary, 3 primary; alcohol (3 and drug abuse (5; working activity (3 if unemployed; hypertension (3; cholesterol≥200 mg/dl (3; diabetes (3; Framingham score (7 if>7%; creatinine (0 if <1 mg/dl, 1 if<1.2; 2 if<1.5>1.2, 5 if<2> 1.5, 7 if≥2; bone fractures (7; bone status at DEXA (0 normal, 3 osteopenic, 5 osteoporotic; cancer (5; depression (3 if BDI>17; other psychiatric illness (5. Annual costs of individual ART regimens were calculated. MFRS was correlated in univariate and multivariate models with all variables. All statistical analyses were carried out using Stata 10.1. Summary of results: We enrolled 241 HIV patients, 74.3% males, aged 44.5±9.9y; 19 patients (7.8% were untreated, 74.8% of treated had undetectable HIV RNA. Mean Nadir CD4 counts were 218±168, 38.5% of patients had an AIDS diagnosis. Mean individual ARV annual cost was 10,976±5,360. Mean MFRS was 28.5±13.9 (4–64. MFRS was significantly higher (p<0.001 in patients with older age, longer duration of HIV infection, lower CD4 nadirs, AIDS diagnosis

  19. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Henry S. Kahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

  20. Effects of Adolescent Childbearing on Maternal Depression and Problem Behaviors: A Prospective, Population-Based Study Using Risk-Set Propensity Scores

    Murray, Joseph; Xiong, Shuangyan; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Keenan, Kate E.

    2016-01-01

    Adolescent mothers are reportedly at risk for depression and problem behaviors in the postpartum period, but studies have rarely considered developmental context and have yet to disentangle the effects of childbearing on adolescent functioning from selection effects that are associated with early pregnancy. The current study examined changes in adolescent depression, conduct problems and substance use (alcohol, tobacco and marijuana) across the peripartum period using risk-set propensity scores derived from a population-based, prospective study that began in childhood (the Pittsburgh Girls Study, PGS). Each of 147 childbearing adolescents (ages 12–19) was matched with two same-age, non-childbearing adolescents (n = 294) on pregnancy propensity using 15 time-varying risk variables derived from sociodemographic, psychopathology, substance use, family, peer and neighborhood domains assessed in the PGS wave prior to each pregnancy (T1). Postpartum depression and problem behaviors were assessed within the first 6 months following delivery (T2); data gathered from the non-childbearing adolescent controls spanned the same interval. Within the childbearing group, conduct problems and marijuana use reduced from T1 to T2, but depression severity and frequency of alcohol or tobacco use showed no change. When change was compared across the matched groups, conduct problems showed a greater reduction among childbearing adolescents. Relative to non-childbearing adolescents who reported more frequent substance use with time, childbearing adolescents reported no change in alcohol use and less frequent use of marijuana across the peripartum period. There were no group differences in patterns of change for depression severity and tobacco use. The results do not support the notion that adolescent childbearing represents a period of heightened risk for depression or problem behaviors. PMID:27176826

  1. Effects of Adolescent Childbearing on Maternal Depression and Problem Behaviors: A Prospective, Population-Based Study Using Risk-Set Propensity Scores.

    Alison E Hipwell

    Full Text Available Adolescent mothers are reportedly at risk for depression and problem behaviors in the postpartum period, but studies have rarely considered developmental context and have yet to disentangle the effects of childbearing on adolescent functioning from selection effects that are associated with early pregnancy. The current study examined changes in adolescent depression, conduct problems and substance use (alcohol, tobacco and marijuana across the peripartum period using risk-set propensity scores derived from a population-based, prospective study that began in childhood (the Pittsburgh Girls Study, PGS. Each of 147 childbearing adolescents (ages 12-19 was matched with two same-age, non-childbearing adolescents (n = 294 on pregnancy propensity using 15 time-varying risk variables derived from sociodemographic, psychopathology, substance use, family, peer and neighborhood domains assessed in the PGS wave prior to each pregnancy (T1. Postpartum depression and problem behaviors were assessed within the first 6 months following delivery (T2; data gathered from the non-childbearing adolescent controls spanned the same interval. Within the childbearing group, conduct problems and marijuana use reduced from T1 to T2, but depression severity and frequency of alcohol or tobacco use showed no change. When change was compared across the matched groups, conduct problems showed a greater reduction among childbearing adolescents. Relative to non-childbearing adolescents who reported more frequent substance use with time, childbearing adolescents reported no change in alcohol use and less frequent use of marijuana across the peripartum period. There were no group differences in patterns of change for depression severity and tobacco use. The results do not support the notion that adolescent childbearing represents a period of heightened risk for depression or problem behaviors.

  2. Life after Adolescent and Adult Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Self-Reported Executive, Emotional, and Behavioural Function 2–5 Years after Injury

    Torun Gangaune Finnanger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Survivors of moderate-severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI are at risk for long-term cognitive, emotional, and behavioural problems. This prospective cohort study investigated self-reported executive, emotional, and behavioural problems in the late chronic phase of moderate and severe TBI, if demographic characteristics (i.e., age, years of education, injury characteristics (Glasgow Coma Scale score, MRI findings such as traumatic axonal injury (TAI, or duration of posttraumatic amnesia, symptoms of depression, or neuropsychological variables in the first year after injury predicted long-term self-reported function. Self-reported executive, emotional, and behavioural functioning were assessed among individuals with moderate and severe TBI (N=67, age range 15–65 years at time of injury 2–5 years after TBI, compared to a healthy matched control group (N=72. Results revealed significantly more attentional, emotional regulation, and psychological difficulties in the TBI group than controls. Demographic and early clinical variables were associated with poorer cognitive and emotional outcome. Fewer years of education and depressive symptoms predicted greater executive dysfunction. Younger age at injury predicted more aggressive and rule-breaking behaviour. TAI and depressive symptoms predicted Internalizing problems and greater executive dysfunction. In conclusion, age, education, TAI, and depression appear to elevate risk for poor long-term outcome, emphasising the need for long-term follow-up of patients presenting with risk factors.

  3. Life after Adolescent and Adult Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Self-Reported Executive, Emotional, and Behavioural Function 2-5 Years after Injury.

    Finnanger, Torun Gangaune; Olsen, Alexander; Skandsen, Toril; Lydersen, Stian; Vik, Anne; Evensen, Kari Anne I; Catroppa, Cathy; Håberg, Asta K; Andersson, Stein; Indredavik, Marit S

    2015-01-01

    Survivors of moderate-severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) are at risk for long-term cognitive, emotional, and behavioural problems. This prospective cohort study investigated self-reported executive, emotional, and behavioural problems in the late chronic phase of moderate and severe TBI, if demographic characteristics (i.e., age, years of education), injury characteristics (Glasgow Coma Scale score, MRI findings such as traumatic axonal injury (TAI), or duration of posttraumatic amnesia), symptoms of depression, or neuropsychological variables in the first year after injury predicted long-term self-reported function. Self-reported executive, emotional, and behavioural functioning were assessed among individuals with moderate and severe TBI (N = 67, age range 15-65 years at time of injury) 2-5 years after TBI, compared to a healthy matched control group (N = 72). Results revealed significantly more attentional, emotional regulation, and psychological difficulties in the TBI group than controls. Demographic and early clinical variables were associated with poorer cognitive and emotional outcome. Fewer years of education and depressive symptoms predicted greater executive dysfunction. Younger age at injury predicted more aggressive and rule-breaking behaviour. TAI and depressive symptoms predicted Internalizing problems and greater executive dysfunction. In conclusion, age, education, TAI, and depression appear to elevate risk for poor long-term outcome, emphasising the need for long-term follow-up of patients presenting with risk factors. PMID:26549936

  4. Measurement of bone mineral density using DEXA and biochemical markers of bone turnover in 5-year survivors after orthotopic liver transplantation

    Purpose: To observe bone loss and bone metabolism status in 5-year survivors after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Methods: Measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine (L2∼L4) and femoral neck using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and analysis of biochemical markers of bone turnover, such as ostecalcin (OSC), bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), carboxy-terminal propeptide of type I procollagen (PICP), carboxy-terminal cross-linked telo-peptide of type I collagen (ICTP), PTH and 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-OH-D). These markers were measured in 31 5-year survivors after OLT, 34 patients with chronic liver failure (CLF) before OLT and 38 normal subjects. Results: Age-matched Z-score of BMD (Z-score) at L2∼L4 was significantly higher in 5-year survivors than that in patients with CLF before OLT. Incidence of osteoporosis (Z-score<-2.0) in 5-year survivors was significantly lower than that in patients with CLF before OLT. Although serum concentrations of bone formation and bone resorption markers in 5-year survivors were high than those of normal subjects, as compared to patients with CLF before OLT, serum OSC was increased, serum ICTP and BAP were reduced, serum PICP was unchanged. Serum PTH and 25-OH-D level was normal. Conclusions: In 5-year survivors following liver transplantation there was a reduction in bone loss and incidence of osteoporosis and an improvement of bone metabolism

  5. DRAWING SKILLS IN CHILDREN WITH NEURODEVELOPMENTAL DELAY AGED 2-5 YEARS.

    Morović, Maja Lang; Matijević, Valentina; Divljaković, Kristina; Kraljević, Marija; Dimić, Zdenka

    2015-06-01

    In typically developing children, drawing development occurs in stages from uncontrolled strokes to complex drawing. In this study, we examined drawing development in children with neurodevelopmental delay (NDD). In order to do so, we observed the influence of age, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and gender on the development of drawing skills. The sample consisted of 52 children with NDD, aged 2 years and 6 months to 5 years. All children were hospitalized for multidisciplinary team monitoring and developmental support. The evaluation of drawing development was administered by giving each child a blank A4 paper and the instruction to draw anything they wanted. All of the drawings were scored satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Descriptive statistics was employed on all relevant data to show results in frequencies and percentages. In order to determine differences between groups, the χ2-test was administered. The results showed greatest difference in drawing in children aged from 3 years to 3 years and 11 months. Children with lower IVH had better drawing scores than children with higher IVH levels. According to gender dissimilarities, a difference was found showing girls to have better drawing skills than boys. All study results pointed to the importance of early rehabilitation and continuous structured work with children with NDD. PMID:26415307

  6. The HEART score for chest pain patients

    Backus, B.E.

    2012-01-01

    The HEART score was developed to improve risk stratification in chest pain patients in the emergency department (ED). This thesis describes series of validation studies of the HEART score and sub studies for individual elements of the score. The predictive value of the HEART score for the occurrence

  7. Characteristics of highly impaired children with severe chronic pain: a 5-year retrospective study on 2249 pediatric pain patients

    Zernikow Boris

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevalence of pain as a recurrent symptom in children is known to be high, but little is known about children with high impairment from chronic pain seeking specialized treatment. The purpose of this study was the precise description of children with high impairment from chronic pain referred to the German Paediatric Pain Centre over a 5-year period. Methods Demographic variables, pain characteristics and psychometric measures were assessed at the first evaluation. Subgroup analysis for sex, age and pain location was conducted and multivariate logistic regression applied to identify parameters associated with extremely high impairment. Results The retrospective study consisted of 2249 children assessed at the first evaluation. Tension type headache (48%, migraine (43% and functional abdominal pain (11% were the most common diagnoses with a high rate of co-occurrence; 18% had some form of musculoskeletal pain disease. Irrespective of pain location, chronic pain disorder with somatic and psychological factors was diagnosed frequently (43%. 55% of the children suffered from more than one distinct pain diagnosis. Clinically significant depression and general anxiety scores were expressed by 24% and 19% of the patients, respectively. Girls over the age of 13 were more likely to seek tertiary treatment compared to boys. Nearly half of children suffered from daily or constant pain with a mean pain value of 6/10. Extremely high pain-related impairment, operationalized as a comprehensive measure of pain duration, frequency, intensity, pain-related school absence and disability, was associated with older age, multiple locations of pain, increased depression and prior hospital stays. 43% of the children taking analgesics had no indication for pharmacological treatment. Conclusion Children with chronic pain are a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge as they often have two or more different pain diagnoses, are prone to misuse of

  8. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  9. Coronary calcium score in 12-year breast cancer survivors after adjuvant radiotherapy with low to moderate heart exposure – Relationship to cardiac radiation dose and cardiovascular risk factors

    Background/purpose: We explored the relation between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and cardiac radiation doses in breast cancer survivors (BCS) treated with radiotherapy (RT). Additionally, we examined the impact of other risk factors and biomarkers of coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and methods: 236 BCS (median age 51 years [range 30–70], median observation time 12 years [9.2–15.7]), treated with 4-field RT of 50GY, were included and examined in 2004 (T1), 2007 (T2) and 2011 (T3) with clinical examination, blood tests and questionnaires. At T3, cardiac computed tomography was performed with quantification of CAC using Agatston score (AS). For 106 patients cardiac dose volume histograms were available. Results: The cohort-based median of the mean cardiac dose was 2.5 (range 0.5–7.0) Gy. There was no correlation between measures of cardiac dose and AS. AS was correlated with high cholesterol at T1/T2 (p = 0.022), high proBNP at T1/T2 (p < 0.022) and T3 (p < 0.022) and high HbA1c at T3 (p = 0.022). In addition, a high AS was significantly associated with hypertension (p = 0.022). Age (p < 0.001) and cholesterol at T1/T2 (p = 0.001) retained significant associations in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Traditional, modifiable risk factors of CAD correlate with CAC and may be important for the long term risk of CAD after RT. With low to moderate cardiac radiation exposure, a contribution of radiation dose to CAC could not be demonstrated

  10. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

    Elliot B Tapper

    Full Text Available The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists.We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE, the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS, combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only. NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY and correct classification of fibrosis.Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6% and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5 while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification.Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

  11. Combined Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Score for Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

    Zhao, Na; Mi, Lan; Liu, Xiaojun; Pan, Shuo; Xu, Jiaojiao; Xia, Dongyu; Liu, Zhongwei; Zhang, Yong; Xiang, Yu; Yuan, Zuyi; Guan, Gongchang; Wang, Junkui

    2015-01-01

    Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) content can both independently predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We investigated the combined predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the first time. We enrolled 480 ACS patients. During a median follow-up time of 37.2 months, 70 (14.58%) patients experienced MACEs. Patients were divided into tertiles according to the baseline RDW content (11.30–12.90, 13.00–13.50, 13.60–16.40). GRACE score was positively correlated with RDW content. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that both GRACE score and RDW content were independent predictors of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.039; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.024–1.055; p < 0.001; 1.699; 1.294–2.232; p < 0.001; respectively). Furthermore, Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that the risk of MACEs increased with increasing RDW content (p < 0.001). For GRACE score alone, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for MACEs was 0.749 (95% CI: 0.707–0.787). The area under the ROC curve for MACEs increased to 0.805 (0.766–0.839, p = 0.034) after adding RDW content. The incremental predictive value of combining RDW content and GRACE risk score was significantly improved, also shown by the net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.352, p < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI = 0.023, p = 0.002). Combining the predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score yielded a more accurate predictive value for long-term cardiovascular events in ACS patients who underwent PCI as compared to each measure alone. PMID:26468876

  12. Combined Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Score for Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Na Zhao

    Full Text Available Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score and red blood cell distribution width (RDW content can both independently predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS. We investigated the combined predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI for the first time. We enrolled 480 ACS patients. During a median follow-up time of 37.2 months, 70 (14.58% patients experienced MACEs. Patients were divided into tertiles according to the baseline RDW content (11.30-12.90, 13.00-13.50, 13.60-16.40. GRACE score was positively correlated with RDW content. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that both GRACE score and RDW content were independent predictors of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.039; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.024-1.055; p < 0.001; 1.699; 1.294-2.232; p < 0.001; respectively. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the risk of MACEs increased with increasing RDW content (p < 0.001. For GRACE score alone, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve for MACEs was 0.749 (95% CI: 0.707-0.787. The area under the ROC curve for MACEs increased to 0.805 (0.766-0.839, p = 0.034 after adding RDW content. The incremental predictive value of combining RDW content and GRACE risk score was significantly improved, also shown by the net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.352, p < 0.001 and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI = 0.023, p = 0.002. Combining the predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score yielded a more accurate predictive value for long-term cardiovascular events in ACS patients who underwent PCI as compared to each measure alone.

  13. Gender differences in continuous-flow left ventricular assist device therapy as a bridge to transplantation: a risk-adjusted comparison using a propensity score-matching analysis.

    Weymann, Alexander; Patil, Nikhil Prakash; Sabashnikov, Anton; Mohite, Prashant N; García Sáez, Diana; Amrani, Mohamed; Bahrami, Toufan; De Robertis, Fabio; Wahlers, Thorsten; Banner, Nicholas R; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Simon, André R

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate gender differences regarding outcome after continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (cfLVAD) implantation. The study was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data. Included were 24 consecutive female cfLVAD recipients and 24 male recipients (62.5% HeartMate II, 37.5% HeartWare) who received their devices between July 2007 and May 2013. Subjects were matched using propensity score analysis based on age, diagnosis, body surface area, preoperative mechanical circulatory support, heart failure severity score (INTERMACS class), and comorbidities. Female patients were significantly sicker before operation. After propensity score matching, there were no statistically significant differences in demographics or clinical baseline characteristics between male and female LVAD recipients. Also, there was a trend towards a longer postoperative intensive care unit stay in the female group (median 9 days [interquartile range 5-17] versus 15 days [interquartile range 8-33]; P < 0.061) and higher postoperative bilirubin values (median 14 mmol/L [interquartile range 10-17] versus 21 mmol/L [interquartile range 13-30]). However, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of outcome (P < 0.569). The overall survival was comparable between the two groups (log rank P < 0.389). Half (50%) of female patients required inotropic support for more than 7 days compared with 21.7% in the male group (P < 0.048). Half (50%) of female recipients required short-term postoperative right ventricular assist device implantation compared with 16.7% in the male group (P < 0.014). In conclusion, cfLVAD implantation as a bridge to transplantation is associated with longer duration of inotropic support and higher requirement for postoperative mechanical right ventricular support in women with similar survival rates. Further studies are required to identify additional demographic and clinical

  14. Assessment of Iron Overload in Homozygous and Heterozygous Beta Thalassemic Children below 5 Years of Age

    Dhiraj J. Trivedi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Thalassemia is a genetic disease having 3-7% carrier rate in Indians. It is transfusion dependent anemia having high risk of iron overloading. A clinical symptom of iron overload becomes detectable in second decade causing progressive liver, heart and endocrine glands damage. There is a need to assess iron overload in thalassemics below 5 years of age to protect them from complications at later age of life. Aims and objectives: Present study was undertaken to estimate serum iron status and evaluate serum transferrin saturation in both homozygous & heterozygous form of thalassemia as an index of iron overload among children of one to five years of age. Materials and Methods: Clinically diagnosed thirty cases of β thalassemia major & thirty cases of β thalassemia minor having severe anemia, hepatospleenomegaly and between 1 year to 5 years of age were included in study group and same age matched healthy controls were included in the study. RBC indices and HbA, HbA2 and HbF were estimated along with serum iron & serum Total Iron Binding Capacity (TIBC and serum transferrin levels. Results: Significant difference was observed in hemoglobin levels between control and both beta thalassemia groups. Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV and Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin (MCH values were reduced. Hemoglobin electrophoresis showed the elevated levels of HbF and HbA2 in both beta thalassemia groups. Among serum iron parameters, serum iron, TIBC and transferrin saturation were elevated whereas serum transferrin levels were low in thalassemia major in children below 5 years of age. Conclusion: Although clinical symptoms of iron overload have been absent in thalassemic children below five years of age, biochemical iron overloading has started at much lower age which is of great concern.

  15. CLINICAL PROFILE OF ACUTE LOWER RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTIONS IN CHILDREN BETWEEN 2MONTHS TO 5 YEARS

    Amitoj Singh Chhina

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND : Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in under - five children in developing countries. Hence, the present study was undertaken to study the various risk factors, clinical profile and outcome of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI in children aged 2 month to 5 years. OBJECTIVE : clinical features, laborato ry assessment and morbidity and mortality pattern associated with acute lower respiratory tract infections in children aged 2 months to 5 years. METHODS: 100 ALRI cases fulfilling WHO criteria for pneumonia, in the age group of 2 month to 5 years were evaluated for clinical profile as per a predesigned proforma in a rural medical college. RESULTS : Of cases 61% were infants and remaining 39%12 - 60 months age group, males outnumbered females with sex ratio of 1.3;1. Elevated total leukocyte counts for age were observed in only 22% of cases, of these 3% were having pneumonia, 9% severe pneumonia and 10% very severe pneumonia. Significant association was found between leukocytosis and ALRI severity (p= 0.0001 Positive blood culture was obtained in 8% of cases and was significantly associated with ALRI severity (p=. 0.027. Among the ALRI cases, 84% required oxygen supplementation at any time during the hospital stay and 8% required mechanical ventilation. The mortality rate was 1%; with 99% of cases recovering and getting discharged uneventfully. CONCLUSION : Among the clinical variables, the signs and symptoms of ALRI as per the WHO ARI Control Programme were found in almost all cases. Regarding the laboratory profile, leukocytosis and blood culture positivity w ere observed in a small percentage, but significant association with ALRI severity was observed for both. Thus, clinical signs, and not invasive blood tests are a better diagnostic tools, though the latter may provide additional therapeutic and prognostic information in severe disease

  16. Confidence scores for prediction models

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...... modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used to...

  17. Status of medical education reform at Saga Medical School 5 years after introducing PBL.

    Oda, Yasutomo; Koizumi, Shunzo

    2008-03-01

    In Japan, problem-based learning (PBL) is a relatively new method of educating medical students that is reforming the face of medical education throughout the world, including Asia. It shifts from teacher-centered learning strategies (for example, lectures in large auditoriums) to student-centered, self-directed learning methods (for example, active discussions and problem-solving by students in small groups under the guidance of faculty tutors). Upon a recommendation by the Japan Model Core Curriculum, Saga Medical School introduced a PBL curriculum 5 years ago. A full PBL curriculum was adopted from the McMaster model through Hawaii. A description of how PBL was implemented into the 3rd and 4th year (Phase III curriculum) is given. The overall result has been good. Students who experienced PBL had increased scores on the National Medical License Exam, and Saga increased its ranking from 56th to 19th of the 80 medical schools in Japan. A key step was introduction of the educational scaffolding in PBL Step 0. Students were allowed to see page one of the PBL case, containing the chief complaint, on the weekend before meeting in small groups. Despite a perceived overall benefit to student learning, symptoms of superficial discussions by students have been observed recently. How this may be caused by poor case design is discussed. Other problems, including "silent tutors" and increased faculty workload, are discussed. It is concluded that after 5 years, Saga's implementation of a PBL curriculum has been successful. However, many additional issues, including motivation of students and preparation for PBL in the first 2 years, must still be resolved in the future. This is the first description of the positive and negative outcomes associated with the reform of medical education and the introduction of PBL to a traditional medical school curriculum in Japan. PMID:18364287

  18. The use of non-medical/alternative treatment in multiple sclerosis. A 5 year follow-up study

    Stenager, Egon; Stenager, E N; Knudsen, Lone;

    1995-01-01

    Forty-nine patients (22 males, 27 females) were examined and interviewed with 5 years interval in order to determine the extent of the use of non-medical (alternative) treatment and whether the use influenced the natural course of multiple sclerosis (MS). Using clinical course, Kurtzke Disability...... Status scale, bladder and bowel function, neuropsychological tests, psychological tests, divorce and self-assessment score as parameters, it was found that non-medical treatment did not alter the course of MS. To confirm this result a clinical trial in a controlled design is needed. The use of non-medical...... treatment declined over the 5 years from 55% to 27%. The use of non-medical treatment could be interpreted as an indicator of psycho-social difficulties in MS patients....

  19. Assessment of dental caries predictors in 6-year-old school children - results from 5-year retrospective cohort study

    Masood Mohd

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken to assess the rate and pattern of dental caries development in 6-year-old school children followed-up for a period of 5 years, and to identify baseline risk factors that were associated with 5 years caries experience in Malaysian children. Methods This 5-years retrospective cohort study comprised primary school children initially aged 6 years in 2004. Caries experience of each child was recorded annually using World Health Organization criteria. The rates of dental caries were recorded in prevalence and incidence density of carious lesions from baseline to final examination. Risk assessment was done to assess relative risk for caries after 5 years in children with baseline caries status. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify significant independent risk factors for caries. Results The sample consisted of 1830 school children. All components of DMFT showed significant differences between baseline and final examination. Filled teeth (FT component of the DMFT showed the greatest increases. Results revealed the initial baseline caries level in permanent dentition was a strong predictor for future caries after 5 years (RR=3.78, 95% CI=3.48-4.10, P0.001. Logistic regression analysis showed significant association between caries occurrence and residence (urban/rural (OR=1.80, Pp observed from baseline and after 5 years was 5.80 persons/100 person-year of observation. The rate of new caries-affected tooth (IDt in the period from baseline and after 5-years was 0.76 teeth/100 teeth-year of observation. Conclusion The majority of 12-year-old school children (70% were caries-free and most of the caries were concentrated in only a small proportion (30% of them. We found that the presence of caries in permanent teeth at the age of 6 years was a strong predictor of future caries development in this population. The strong evidence of early permanent teeth

  20. Long-term efficacy of risedronate: a 5-year placebo-controlled clinical experience

    Sorensen, O H; Crawford, G M; Mulder, H; Hosking, D J; Gennari, C; Mellstrom, D; Pack, S; Wenderoth, D; Cooper, C; Reginster, J-Y

    2003-01-01

    Limited placebo-controlled data are available to assess the long-term fracture efficacy of bisphosphonates. In order to determine the effects of 5 years of risedronate treatment, we extended a 3-year, placebo-controlled vertebral fracture study in osteoporotic women for an additional 2 years; women...... who entered the extension study continued to receive 5 mg risedronate or placebo according to the original randomization, with maintenance of blinding. End points included vertebral and nonvertebral fracture assessments, bone mineral density measurements, and changes in biochemical markers of bone...... turnover. A total of 265 women (placebo, 130; 5 mg risedronate, 135) entered the study extension and 220 (83%) completed the additional 2 years. Fracture results observed in the study extension were consistent with those observed in the first 3 years. The risk of new vertebral fractures was significantly...

  1. Predictors and consequences of childhood depressive symptoms: a 5-year longitudinal study.

    Nolen-Hoeksema, S; Girgus, J S; Seligman, M E

    1992-08-01

    A 5-year longitudinal study investigated the interrelationships among children's experiences of depressive symptoms, negative life events, explanatory style, and helplessness behaviors in social and achievement situations. The results revealed that early in childhood, negative events, but not explanatory style, predicted depressive symptoms; later in childhood, a pessimistic explanatory style emerged as a significant predictor of depressive symptoms, alone and in conjunction with negative events. When children suffered periods of depression, their explanatory styles not only deteriorated but remained pessimistic even after their depression subsided, presumably putting them at risk for future episodes of depression. Some children seem repeatedly prone to depressive symptoms over periods of at least 2 years. Depressed children consistently showed helpless behaviors in social and achievement settings. PMID:1500598

  2. Pathogen Changes and Risk Factor Analysis of Community-acquired Pneumonia in the Elderly of A Hospital in Zhe- jiang Province in Recent 5 Years%浙江省某院5年来老年社区获得性肺炎的病原体变迁及危险因素分析

    钟雷; 裘雨林

    2014-01-01

    目的:了解我院老年社区获得性肺炎(CAP)的病原体和耐药性变迁,分析 CAP 发病的高危因素,为老年 CAP 的预防和治疗提供指导意见。方法回顾性分析2008-2012年的315例老年 CAP 患者的资料,对痰标本进行培养、分离和鉴定,药敏试验采用 K - B 法。对相关危险因素进行单因素和多因素 Logistic 回归分析。结果315份痰标本病原体培养阳性113份,阳性率为35.9%,2008-2012年各年阳性率分别为36.2%(21/58)、33.9%(19/56)、36.1%(22/61)、36.4%(24/66)和36.5%(27/74),差异无统计学意义(χ2=0.574,P ﹥0.05);共分离出130株病原体,革兰阳性菌43株(占33.1%),革兰阴性菌51株(占39.2%),非典型病原体36株(占27.7%)。其中分布最多的4种病原体为肺炎链球菌、肺炎支原体、流感嗜血杆菌和肺炎克雷伯菌,分别占23.9%、20.8%、15.4%和14.6%。2008-2012年肺炎链球菌(由34.8%下降至18.8%)和流感嗜血杆菌(由26.1%下降至9.4%)的比重逐年下降,肺炎克雷伯菌(由8.7%上升至18.8%)和肺炎支原体(由13.0%上升至31.3%)逐年上升;肺炎链球菌对青霉素的耐药率在5年都很高,且在后2年达到100%。多因素 Logistic 回归分析显示年龄、吸烟史、烟龄、慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)、哮喘、慢性支气管炎、肺结核、支气管扩张和肺癌是 CAP 的独立危险因素(P ﹤0.05)。结论本地区老年 CAP 的病原体构成和耐药性均发生了明显变迁,由以往以肺炎链球菌为主,逐渐变为以肺炎支原体为主,耐药性增强且呈多重耐药特点;吸烟和呼吸道疾病是老年 CAP 的高危因素。%Objective To explore the pathogen changes and drug - resistance evolution of community - acquired pneu-monia(CAP)in the elderly,and to analyze the risk factors related to CAP,in order to to provide guidance

  3. Henoch schonlein purpura--a 5-year review and proposed pathway.

    Louise Watson

    Full Text Available Henoch Schonlein Purpura (HSP is the commonest systemic vasculitis of childhood typically presenting with a palpable purpuric rash and frequently involving the renal system. We are the first group to clinically assess, critically analyse and subsequently revise a nurse led monitoring pathway for this condition.A cohort of 102 children presenting with HSP to a secondary/tertiary level UK paediatric hospital over a five year period, were monitored using a nurse led care pathway. Using this cohort, the incidence (6.21 cases per 100,000 children per year and natural disease course of HSP nephritis (46% initial renal inflammation; 9% subsequent renal referral; 1% renal biopsy and immunosuppression was determined. Older patients were at higher risk of requiring a renal referral (renal referral 12.3 (8.4-13.5 years vs. normal outcome 6.0 (3.7-8.5 years; p<0.01. A normal urinalysis on day 7 had a 97% (confidence interval 90 to 99% negative predictive value in predicting a normal renal outcome.Using this data and existing literature base, The Alder Hey Henoch Schonlein Purpura Pathway was developed, a revised pathway for the screening of poor renal outcome in HSP. This is based on a six-month monitoring period for all patients presenting with HSP, which importantly prioritises patients according to the urine findings on day 7 and thus intensively monitors those at higher risk of developing nephritis. The pathway could be easily adapted for use in different settings and resources.The introduction of a standardised pathway for the monitoring of HSP will facilitate the implementation of disease registries to further our understanding of the condition and permit future clinical trials.

  4. Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W;

    2012-01-01

    Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories....

  5. Fingerprinting of music scores

    Irons, Jonathan; Schmucker, Martin

    2004-06-01

    Publishers of sheet music are generally reluctant in distributing their content via the Internet. Although online sheet music distribution's advantages are numerous the potential risk of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) infringement, e.g. illegal online distributions, disables any innovation propensity. While active protection techniques only deter external risk factors, additional technology is necessary to adequately treat further risk factors. For several media types including music scores watermarking technology has been developed, which ebeds information in data by suitable data modifications. Furthermore, fingerprinting or perceptual hasing methods have been developed and are being applied especially for audio. These methods allow the identification of content without prior modifications. In this article we motivate the development of watermarking and fingerprinting technologies for sheet music. Outgoing from potential limitations of watermarking methods we explain why fingerprinting methods are important for sheet music and address potential applications. Finally we introduce a condept for fingerprinting of sheet music.

  6. Implications of Foot Ulceration in Hemodialysis Patients: A 5-Year Observational Study

    Hassan Al-Thani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Foot ulceration (FU remains a serious concern for patients worldwide. We analyzed the incidence, risk factors, and outcome of FU in hemodialysis (HD patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted for 252 HD patients who were followed up for 5 years. Patients were categorized according to whether they developed FU or not. The FU group (17% was older and had significantly higher incidence of nephropathy, retinopathy, peripheral (PAD, coronary artery disease (CAD, and diabetes mellitus (DM as compared to no-FU group. FU group had higher frequency of major amputation (P=0.001 and HD vascular access (P=0.01. Patients with combined DM and PAD had a 10-fold increased risk of FU in comparison to those who had DM alone. Presence of PAD was the main independent predictor for development of FU in HD with an adjusted odd ratio (aOR of 16.0 (95% CI: 4.41–62.18; P=0.001. After adjusting for age, sex, and CAD, predictors for mortality were PAD (aOR 4.3, FU (aOR 3.6, and DM (aOR 2.6. FU is common in HD patients regardless of DM. However, the presence of PAD is significantly associated with more FU and mortality in HD. HD patients need intensive foot care and warrant progressive modification of vascular risk factors.

  7. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Prostate Cancer in Chinese Men with PSA 4–10 ng/mL Who Underwent TRUS-Guided Prostate Biopsy: The Utilization of PAMD Score

    Fang, Dong; Ren, Da; Zhao, Chenglin; Li, Xuesong; Yu, Wei; Wang, Rui; Wang, Huihui; Xi, Chenguang; He, Qun; Wang, Xiaoying; Xin, Zhongcheng; Zhou, Liqun

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. To elucidate the characteristics and risk factors for positive biopsy outcomes in Chinese patients with prostate specific antigen (PSA) 4–10 ng/mL and develop a risk-stratification score model. Methods. The data of 345 patients who underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy between 2011 and 2013 was retrospectively analyzed. Digital rectal examination (DRE), prostate volume (PV), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and smoking status were also collected. Positive biopsy outcomes were defined as prostate cancer (PCa) and high grade PCa (HGPCa, Gleason Score ≥ 7). Results. The median PSA was 7.15 (IQR 5.91–8.45) ng/mL. Overall 138 patients (40.0%) were shown to have PCa, including 100 patients (29.0%) with HGPCa. Smaller PV, elder age, MRI results, and positive DRE were proved to be predictive factors for positive biopsy outcomes in both univariate and multivariate analysis. We developed a “PAMD” score which combined the four factors to categorize patients into three risk groups, and the model performed good predictive sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion. The prevalence of prostate cancer in Chinese patients with PSA 4–10 ng/mL was 40%, including 29% patients with high grade disease. DRE, age, MRI, and PV were predictive factors for positive biopsy outcomes, and the PAMD score model could be utilized for risk-stratification and decision-making. PMID:26557679

  8. Validation of the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) in patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes: a report from the prospective European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) registry

    Swart, L. de; Smith, A.; Johnston, T.W.; Haase, D.; Droste, J.; Fenaux, P.; Symeonidis, A.; Sanz, G.; Hellstrom-Lindberg, E.; Cermak, J.; Germing, U.; Stauder, R.; Georgescu, O.; MacKenzie, M.; Malcovati, L.; Holm, M.S.; Almeida, A.M.; Madry, K.; Slama, B.; Guerci-Bresler, A.; Sanhes, L.; Beyne-Rauzy, O.; Luno, E.; Bowen, D.; Witte, T.J. de

    2015-01-01

    Baseline characteristics, disease-management and outcome of 1000 lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients within the European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) Registry are described in conjunction with the validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). The EUMDS regist

  9. En la población Canaria, la función de Framingham estima mejor el riesgo de mortalidad cardiovascular que la función SCORE Framingham function estimates the risk of cardio vascular mortality more effectively than SCORE function in the population of the Canary Islands (Spain

    Antonio Cabrera de León

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Comparar la estimación de eventos cardiovasculares fatales con las funciones de Framingham y SCORE, además de explorar su capacidad para detectar el riesgo aportado por factores no incluidos en sus ecuaciones: sedentarismo, obesidad, perímetro abdominal, razón abdomen/estatura, razón abdomen/pelvis y consumo excesivo de alcohol. Métodos: Estudio transversal de 5.289 personas, de 30 a 69 años de edad, obtenidas por muestreo aleatorio en la población general de Canarias. Se calibraron las funciones de Framingham y SCORE, y se estimó su concordancia. Se obtuvo, para estas edades, la tasa poblacional de mortalidad cardiovascular y se confrontó con el riesgo predicho por las funciones. Resultados: En los hombres, la tasa de mortalidad por 100.000 habitantes fue de 67,4, en tanto que la estimación de Framingham, SCORE-Low y SCORE-High fue de 80, 140 y 270, respectivamente. En las mujeres, frente a una tasa de 19,3, la estimación fue de 30, 50 y 70, respectivamente. Ambas funciones detectaron el incremento del riesgo aportado por los factores estudiados, con la excepción, en las mujeres, del sedentarismo con SCORE y del consumo excesivo de alcohol con ambas funciones. En los hombres, tomando para Framingham los puntos de corte de >12%, >15% y >20%, la concordancia con SCORE-Low produjo una Kappa de 0,6, 0,7 y 0,5, respectivamente. Conclusiones: La función de Framingham estimó mejor las tasas de mortalidad que la función SCORE. Únicamente la función de Framingham detectó en ambos sexos el riesgo cardiovascular aportado por el sedentarismo. En Canarias recomendamos la aplicación de la función de Framingham calibrada.Introduction: To compare the performance of the Framingham and SCORE functions to estimate fatal cardiovascular events. In addition, we explored the ability of both functions to detect the risk contributed by factors not included in their equations: sedentariness, obesity, abdominal circumference, abdomen

  10. Coronary artery calcium score using electron beam tomography in the patients with acute obstructive coronary arterial disease : comparative study within asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis and chronic obstructive coronary arterial disease group

    Ryu, Seok Jong; Choi, Byoung Wook; Choe, Kyu Ok [Yonsei Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-04-01

    To compare, through analysis of the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and the risk factors for atherosclerosis, the characteristics of acute coronary syndrome between an asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis patients and a chronic coronary arterial obstructive disease(CAOD) group. The CAC scores of an asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis patients (group I, n=284), a chronic CAOD croup (group II, n=39) and an acute coronary syndrome group (group III, n=21) were measured by electron beam tomography. Forty-seven patients with CAOD from groups II and III underwent coronary angiography, and we scrutinized age, sex and risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, smoking, hypercholesterolemia and low high-density lipoproteinemia. The numbers of stenotic coronary arterial branches and degree of stenosis revealed by coronary angiography were also recorded. We determined the differences between the three groups in terms of CAC score and the risk factors, the relationship between CAC score and risk factors, and the characteristic features of each type of CAOD group. The mean CA score of group III (135.1) was not statistically different from that of group I (135.7) or group II (365.8). Among patients aged below 50, the mean CAC score of group III (127.4) was significantly higher than that of group I (6.2), (p=0.0006). The mean CAC score at the sixth decade was also significantly different between group I(81.5) and group II (266.9). The mean age of group III (54.2 years) was significantly lower than that of group I (58.1 years) (p=0.047) and of group II (60.1) (p=0.022). There was significant correlation between the number of stenotic coronary arterial branches and log(CAC +1) (p<.01). The square root of the CAC score and the maximal degree of stenosis was also well correlated (p<.01). There was no difference in the mean number of risk factors among the three groups, though the incidence of smoking in group III was significantly

  11. Coronary artery calcium score using electron beam tomography in the patients with acute obstructive coronary arterial disease : comparative study within asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis and chronic obstructive coronary arterial disease group

    To compare, through analysis of the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and the risk factors for atherosclerosis, the characteristics of acute coronary syndrome between an asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis patients and a chronic coronary arterial obstructive disease(CAOD) group. The CAC scores of an asymptomatic high-risk group of atherosclerosis patients (group I, n=284), a chronic CAOD croup (group II, n=39) and an acute coronary syndrome group (group III, n=21) were measured by electron beam tomography. Forty-seven patients with CAOD from groups II and III underwent coronary angiography, and we scrutinized age, sex and risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, smoking, hypercholesterolemia and low high-density lipoproteinemia. The numbers of stenotic coronary arterial branches and degree of stenosis revealed by coronary angiography were also recorded. We determined the differences between the three groups in terms of CAC score and the risk factors, the relationship between CAC score and risk factors, and the characteristic features of each type of CAOD group. The mean CA score of group III (135.1) was not statistically different from that of group I (135.7) or group II (365.8). Among patients aged below 50, the mean CAC score of group III (127.4) was significantly higher than that of group I (6.2), (p=0.0006). The mean CAC score at the sixth decade was also significantly different between group I(81.5) and group II (266.9). The mean age of group III (54.2 years) was significantly lower than that of group I (58.1 years) (p=0.047) and of group II (60.1) (p=0.022). There was significant correlation between the number of stenotic coronary arterial branches and log(CAC +1) (p<.01). The square root of the CAC score and the maximal degree of stenosis was also well correlated (p<.01). There was no difference in the mean number of risk factors among the three groups, though the incidence of smoking in group III was significantly

  12. Short-term clinical disease progression in HIV-1-positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy: the EuroSIDA risk-score

    Mocroft, Amanda; Ledergerber, Bruno; Zilmer, Kai;

    2007-01-01

    To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).......To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)....

  13. Determinants of Subclinical Vitamin A Deficiency among children 1-5 years in a rural community of Jammu

    Shivali Suri; Dinesh Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Background: The burden of sub-clinical vitamin A deficiency (VAD), as evident by serum retinol levels, is huge (62%) among preschool children in India. Sub-clinical VAD increases children’s' susceptibility to infections, reduces physical growth and decreases the ability to survive from serious illnesses. Aims & Objectives: To assess the burden of subclinical VAD and study the various risk factors associated with it among children 1-5 years of age. Material Methods: A cross sectional commu...

  14. Evolution of Framingham cardiovascular risk score in HIV-infected patients initiating EFV- and LPV/r-based HAART in a Latin American cohort

    Diego Cecchini

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Epidemiological studies suggest that some antiretroviral drugs may contribute to increase cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients. However, data from Latin American countries are limited, as impact of HAART on cardiovascular risk remains understudied. In this context, we aimed to evaluate if 10-year Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCRS increases in patients following exposure to EFV- and LPV/r-based HAART in a Latin American cohort. Materials and Methods: Retrospective 48-week cohort study. We reviewed clinical charts of randomly selected samples of patients initiating (according to national guidelines EFV first-line HAART and LPV/r first- or second-line (but first PI-based HAART assisted at a reference HIV centre in Buenos Aires, Argentina (period 2004–2012. Each patient could only be included in one arm. FCRS was calculated according to National Institutes of Health risk assessment tool (http://cvdrisk.nhlbi.nih.gov/. Results: A total of 357 patients were included: 249 in EFV arm and 108 in LPV/r arm (80 as first line and 28 as second line, but first PI-based HAART. Baseline characteristics (median, interquartile range: age, 38 (33–45 years; male, 247 (69%; viral load, 98200 (20550–306000 copies/mL; CD4 T-cell count, 115 (60–175 cel/µL; total cholesterol, 159 (135–194 mg/dL; HDL: 39 (31–41 mg/dL; LDL: 94 (72–123 mg/dL; current smoker, 29%; on antihypertensive drugs: 14 (4%, diabetic: 4 (1%. Most frequent accompanying nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs were 3TC (92% and zidovudine (AZT; 76%. Baseline FCRS was low, moderate and high for 93%, 7% and 0% of patients on EFV arm and 96.7%, 1.7% and 1.7% on LPV/r arm. On EFV arm, an increase in FCRS category (low to moderate or moderate to high was observed in 1 patient (0.9% at 24 weeks and 6 (5,6% at 48 weeks; 5 (4.7% decreased category. On LPV/r arm no one varied FCRS category at 24 weeks and 2 (3.4% increased from low to moderate at 48 weeks

  15. Prediction of outcome in cancer patients with febrile neutropenia: comparison of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer risk-index score with procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A, and interleukins-1beta, -6, -8 and -10.

    Uys, A; Rapoport, B L; Fickl, H; Meyer, P W A; Anderson, R

    2007-11-01

    The primary objective of the study was to compare the predictive potential of procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), and interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, with that of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk-index score in cancer patients on presentation with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN). Seventy-eight consecutive FN episodes in 63 patients were included, and MASCC scores, as well as concentrations of CRP, SAA, PCT, and IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10, and haematological parameters were determined on presentation, 72 h later and at outcome. Multivariate analysis of data revealed the MASCC score, but none of the laboratory parameters, to be an accurate, independent variable (P < 0.0001) for prediction of resolution with or without complications and death. Of the various laboratory parameters, PCT had the strongest association with the MASCC score (r = -0.51; P < 0.0001). In cancer patients who present with FN, the MASCC risk-index score is a useful predictor of outcome, while measurement of PCT, CRP, SAA, or IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10, is of limited value. PMID:17944761

  16. Anatomy of Credit Scoring Models

    Matías Alfredo Gutiérrez Girault

    2008-01-01

    Introduced in the 70´s, the use of credit scoring techniques became widespread in the 90´s thanks to the development of better statistical and computational resources. Nowadays almost all the financial intermediaries use these techniques, at least to originate the credits they grant. Credit scoring models are algorithms that in a mechanical way assess the credit risk of a loan applicant or an existing bank client, by means of statistical, mathematic, econometric or artificial intelligence dev...

  17. Oral health status of 5 years and 12 years old school going children in rural Gurgaon, India: An epidemiological study

    Meenu Mittal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Oral health is an essential component of health throughout life. Hardly any information is available on the oral health status of children in Gurgaon. Thus, the present study was conducted among 5-year-old and 12-years-old children in schools in rural Gurgaon. Materials and Methods: A total of 1003 children were examined of which 619 were in 5 years age group and 384 in 12 years group. The prevalence of dental caries was studied using dentition status and treatment needs index. For dental calculus criteria of Community Periodontal and for dental fluorosis Dean′s index was used. Results: In 5 years age group prevalence of dental caries was 68.5%, dental fluorosis was 22.5% and treatment needs were 63.7%. In 12 year age group prevalence of dental caries was 37.5%, dental fluorosis was 76.04%, highest community periodontal index score was 2, seen in 80.2% and overall treatment needs were 44.3%. Conclusion: Preventive approaches seem to be a viable alternative to tackle the overwhelming problem of dental caries and other oral diseases. Provision of oral health education in schools and school based preventive programs are important for improvement of this situation.

  18. Outcomes and indications for intervention in non-operative management of paediatric liver trauma: A 5 year retrospective study

    Aim: To determine the applicability of accurate computed tomography (CT) evaluation and embolization as non-operative management for liver trauma in a paediatric population. Material and methods: A retrospective observational study of 37 children (mean age 10.5 years) with hepatic trauma (28 blunt, 9 penetrating) admitted to a trauma referral centre over a 5 year period. All patients were evaluated with CT and scored with an Association for the Surgery of Trauma score. Inpatient information was reviewed for demographics, associated injuries, modes of management, efficacy and complications of management, and outcome. Statistical analysis was performed. Results: There were seven contusions, two grade I, two grade II, nine grade III, and 17 grade IV liver lacerations. Only two patients (grade IV, penetrating) underwent surgery for the management of bowel perforation. All children had non-surgical treatment of their liver trauma: three cases (grade IV) had primary angiography due to CT evidence of active bleeding and embolization was performed in two of these. Seven patients (two grade III, five grade IV) had angiography during the follow-up for evidence of a complicating pseudoaneurysm and embolization was performed in six of them. Embolization was successful in all the children; one minor complication occurred (cholecystitis). Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) plus stenting was performed in two cases for a bile leak. All 37 children had a positive outcome. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that non-operative management of hepatic trauma is applicable to children and may have a higher success rate than in adults

  19. A Comparative Study on Motor Skills in 5-Year-Old Children with Phonological and Phonetic Disorders

    Fatemeh Hasanati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Speech as a motor phenomenon requires repetitive and rapid function of articulatory organs performing extremely fine movements. Practice on motor skills results in facilitation in treatment progress of children with phonological disorders. The purpose of this study was to compare motor skills in 5-year-old children with phonological and phonetic disorders.Methods: Thirty-two children age 5 years, 16 with phonemical speech sound disorders and 16 with difficulty at a phonetic level participated in this study. TOLD Test was performed for linguistic skills investigation among children. Phonetic test, Wepman test, diadochokinesis and oral assessment was used for diagnosis between phonological and phonetic disorders. The children were also evaluated with Oseretsky motor developmental scale .Results: In comparison, mean scores of movement skills between both groups showed significant difference (p=0.006 and children with phonetic disorder got significantly higher scores on all part of this test.Conclusions: The findings of this study support the idea that speech sound disorders are frequently associated with motor problems, and that type of articulation disorder affects the motor performance in a different way. Phonological disorders seem to have more impact on motor performance than phonetic disorders. The results authenticate the need to pay more attention to the motor skills of children with articulation disorders.

  20. Risk of Pathologic Upgrading or Locally Advanced Disease in Early Prostate Cancer Patients Based on Biopsy Gleason Score and PSA: A Population-Based Study of Modern Patients

    Caster, Joseph M.; Falchook, Aaron D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Hendrix, Laura H. [Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Chen, Ronald C., E-mail: Ronald_chen@med.unc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: Radiation oncologists rely on available clinical information (biopsy Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) to determine the optimal treatment regimen for each prostate cancer patient. Existing published nomograms correlating clinical to pathologic extent of disease were based on patients treated in the 1980s and 1990s at select academic institutions. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to examine pathologic outcomes (Gleason score and cancer stage) in early prostate cancer patients based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA concentration. Methods and Materials: This analysis included 25,858 patients whose cancer was diagnosed between 2010 and 2011, with biopsy Gleason scores of 6 to 7 and clinical stage T1 to T2 disease, who underwent radical prostatectomy. In subgroups based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA level, we report the proportion of patients with pathologically advanced disease (positive surgical margin or pT3-T4 disease) or whose Gleason score was upgraded. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with pathologic outcomes. Results: For patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 cancers, 84% of those with PSA <10 ng/mL had surgical T2 disease with negative margins; this decreased to 61% in patients with PSA of 20 to 29.9 ng/mL. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 43% (PSA: <10 ng/mL) to 61% (PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) of biopsy Gleason 6 patients. Patients with biopsy Gleason 7 cancers had a one-third (Gleason 3 + 4; PSA: <10 ng/mL) to two-thirds (Gleason 4 + 3; PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) probability of having pathologically advanced disease. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 11% to 19% of patients with biopsy Gleason 4 + 3 cancers. Multivariable analysis showed that higher PSA and older age were associated with Gleason score upgrading and pathologically advanced disease. Conclusions: This is the first population-based study to examine pathologic extent of disease and pathologic Gleason score

  1. Risk of Pathologic Upgrading or Locally Advanced Disease in Early Prostate Cancer Patients Based on Biopsy Gleason Score and PSA: A Population-Based Study of Modern Patients

    Purpose: Radiation oncologists rely on available clinical information (biopsy Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) to determine the optimal treatment regimen for each prostate cancer patient. Existing published nomograms correlating clinical to pathologic extent of disease were based on patients treated in the 1980s and 1990s at select academic institutions. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to examine pathologic outcomes (Gleason score and cancer stage) in early prostate cancer patients based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA concentration. Methods and Materials: This analysis included 25,858 patients whose cancer was diagnosed between 2010 and 2011, with biopsy Gleason scores of 6 to 7 and clinical stage T1 to T2 disease, who underwent radical prostatectomy. In subgroups based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA level, we report the proportion of patients with pathologically advanced disease (positive surgical margin or pT3-T4 disease) or whose Gleason score was upgraded. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with pathologic outcomes. Results: For patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 cancers, 84% of those with PSA <10 ng/mL had surgical T2 disease with negative margins; this decreased to 61% in patients with PSA of 20 to 29.9 ng/mL. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 43% (PSA: <10 ng/mL) to 61% (PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) of biopsy Gleason 6 patients. Patients with biopsy Gleason 7 cancers had a one-third (Gleason 3 + 4; PSA: <10 ng/mL) to two-thirds (Gleason 4 + 3; PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) probability of having pathologically advanced disease. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 11% to 19% of patients with biopsy Gleason 4 + 3 cancers. Multivariable analysis showed that higher PSA and older age were associated with Gleason score upgrading and pathologically advanced disease. Conclusions: This is the first population-based study to examine pathologic extent of disease and pathologic Gleason score

  2. Do Multidimensional Pain Inventory scale score changes indicate risk of receiving sick leave benefits 1 year after a pain rehabilitation programme?

    Nyberg, Vanja E; Novo, Mehmed; Sjölund, Bengt H

    2011-01-01

    To study whether scale score changes in the Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI) can predict which persons disabled by pain will receive sick leave benefits 1 year after completing a pain rehabilitation programme.......To study whether scale score changes in the Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI) can predict which persons disabled by pain will receive sick leave benefits 1 year after completing a pain rehabilitation programme....

  3. Trends in the quality of health care for children aged less than 5 years in Afghanistan, 2004-2006

    Anbrasi Edward

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To study trends in the quality of the health care provided to children aged less than 5 years in Afghanistan between 2004 and 2006. In particular, to determine the effect on such quality of a basic package of health services (BPHS, including Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI, introduced in 2003. METHODS: In each year of the study, 500-600 health facilities providing the BPHS were selected by stratified random sampling in 29 provinces of Afghanistan. We observed consultations for children aged less than 5 years, interviewed their caretakers, interviewed health-care providers and measured adherence to case management standards for assessment and counselling in a random sample. FINDINGS: The quality of the assessment and counselling provided to sick children aged less than 5 years improved significantly between 2004 and 2006. A 43.4% increase in the assessment index and a 28.7% increase in the counselling index (P < 0.001 were noted. Assessment quality improved significantly every year and was statistically associated with certain characteristics of the provider (being a doctor, having a higher knowledge score, being trained in IMCI, being part of a "contracting-in" mechanism and providing a longer consultation time and the child (being younger and having a female caretaker. Counselling quality was also significantly associated with these characteristics, except for provider cadre and child age. The presence of clinical guidelines and the frequency of supervision were significantly associated with improved quality scores in 2006 (P < 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively. CONCLUSION: Quality of care improved over the study period, but performance remained suboptimal in some areas. Continued investments in Afghanistan's health system capacity are needed.

  4. The skin tissue is adversely affected by TNF-alpha blockers in patients with chronic inflammatory arthritis: a 5-year prospective analysis

    Natalia P. Machado

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the incidence of and the main risk factors associated with cutaneous adverse events in patients with chronic inflammatory arthritis following anti-TNF-α therapy. METHODS: A total of 257 patients with active arthritis who were taking TNF-α blockers, including 158 patients with rheumatoid arthritis, 87 with ankylosing spondylitis and 12 with psoriatic arthritis, were enrolled in a 5-year prospective analysis. Patients with overlapping or other rheumatic diseases were excluded. Anthropometric, socioeconomic, demographic and clinical data were evaluated, including the Disease Activity Score-28, Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index and Psoriasis Area Severity Index. Skin conditions were evaluated by two dermatology experts, and in doubtful cases, skin lesion biopsies were performed. Associations between adverse cutaneous events and clinical, demographic and epidemiological variables were determined using the chi-square test, and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors. The significance level was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: After 60 months of follow-up, 71 adverse events (73.85/1000 patient-years were observed, of which allergic and immune-mediated phenomena were the most frequent events, followed by infectious conditions involving bacterial (47.1%, parasitic (23.5%, fungal (20.6% and viral (8.8% agents. CONCLUSION: The skin is significantly affected by adverse reactions resulting from the use of TNF-α blockers, and the main risk factors for cutaneous events were advanced age, female sex, a diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis, disease activity and the use of infliximab.

  5. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Prostate Cancer in Chinese Men with PSA 4–10 ng/mL Who Underwent TRUS-Guided Prostate Biopsy: The Utilization of PAMD Score

    Dong Fang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To elucidate the characteristics and risk factors for positive biopsy outcomes in Chinese patients with prostate specific antigen (PSA 4–10 ng/mL and develop a risk-stratification score model. Methods. The data of 345 patients who underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy between 2011 and 2013 was retrospectively analyzed. Digital rectal examination (DRE, prostate volume (PV, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, and smoking status were also collected. Positive biopsy outcomes were defined as prostate cancer (PCa and high grade PCa (HGPCa, Gleason Score≥7. Results. The median PSA was 7.15 (IQR 5.91–8.45 ng/mL. Overall 138 patients (40.0% were shown to have PCa, including 100 patients (29.0% with HGPCa. Smaller PV, elder age, MRI results, and positive DRE were proved to be predictive factors for positive biopsy outcomes in both univariate and multivariate analysis. We developed a “PAMD” score which combined the four factors to categorize patients into three risk groups, and the model performed good predictive sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion. The prevalence of prostate cancer in Chinese patients with PSA 4–10 ng/mL was 40%, including 29% patients with high grade disease. DRE, age, MRI, and PV were predictive factors for positive biopsy outcomes, and the PAMD score model could be utilized for risk-stratification and decision-making.

  6. The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for myelofibrosis predicts outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    Scott, Bart L; Gooley, Ted A; Sorror, Mohamed L; Rezvani, Andrew R; Linenberger, Michael L; Grim, Jonathan; Sandmaier, Brenda M; Myerson, David; Chauncey, Thomas R; Storb, Rainer; Buxhofer-Ausch, Veronika; Radich, Jerald P; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Deeg, H Joachim

    2012-03-15

    Studies by the International Working Group showed that the prognosis of myelofibrosis patients is predicted by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) risk categorization, which includes patient age, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin, leukocyte count, and circulating blasts. We evaluated the prognostic usefulness of the DIPSS in 170 patients with myelofibrosis, 12 to 78 years of age (median, 51.5 years of age), who received hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) between 1990 and 2009 from related (n = 86) or unrelated donors (n = 84). By DIPSS, 21 patients had low-risk disease, 48 had intermediate-1, 50 had intermediate-2, and 51 had high-risk disease. Five-year incidence of relapse, relapse-free survival, overall survival, and nonrelapse mortality for all patients were 10%, 57%, 57%, and 34%, respectively. Among patients with DIPSS high-risk disease, the hazard ratio for post-HCT mortality was 4.11 (95% CI, 1.44-11.78; P = .008), and for nonrelapse mortality was 3.41 (95% CI, 1.15-10.09; P = .03) compared with low-risk patients. After a median follow-up of 5.9 years, the median survivals have not been reached for DIPSS risk groups low and intermediate-1, and were 7 and 2.5 years for intermediate-2 and high-risk patients, respectively. Thus, HCT was curative for a large proportion of patients with myelofibrosis, and post-HCT success was dependent on pre-HCT DIPSS classification. PMID:22234678

  7. Predictors of heroin relapse: Personality traits, impulsivity, COMT gene Val158met polymorphism in a 5-year prospective study in Shanghai, China.

    Su, Hang; Li, Zhibin; Du, Jiang; Jiang, Haifeng; Chen, Zhikang; Sun, Haiming; Zhao, Min

    2015-12-01

    Relapse is a typical feature of heroin addiction and rooted in genetic and psychological determinants. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of personality traits, impulsivity, and COMT gene polymorphism (rs4680) on relapse to heroin use during 5-year follow up. 564 heroin dependent patients were enrolled in compulsory drug rehabilitation center. 12 months prior to their release, personality traits were measured by BIS-11 (Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11) and Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI). The COMT gene rs4680 polymorphism was genotyped using a DNA sequence detection system. The heroin use status was evaluated for 5 years after discharged. Among the 564 heroin-dependent patients, 500 were followed for 5 years after discharge and 53.0% (n = 265) were considered as relapsed to heroin use according to a strict monitor system. Univariate analysis showed that age, having ever been in methadone maintenance treatment (MMT), the total scores and non-planning scores of BIS-11, and the COMT rs4680 gene variants were different between relapse and abstinent groups. Logistic regression analysis showed higher BIS total score, having ever been in MMT and younger first heroin use age are the predictors of relapse to heroin use during 5 years follow-up, and the COMT rs4680 gene had an interaction with BIS scores. Our findings indicated that the impulsive personality traits, methadone use history, and onset age could predict relapse in heroin-dependent patients during 5 year's follow up. The COMT gene showed a moderational effect in part the relationship of impulsivity with heroin relapse. PMID:26345603

  8. Fetal Biophysical Profile Scoring

    H.R. HaghighatKhah

    2009-01-01

    significance. Fetal breathing movements, amniotic fluid volume, and the non-stress test are the most powerful variables. For example, when the biophysical profile score is 2, the perinatal mortality varies between 428/1000 with only fetal movement present to 66/1000 if the non-stress test is reactive and all of the ultrasound parameters are absent (Manning 1990b. Some authors have, therefore, proposed utilization of a modified biophysical profile that incorporates only the non-stress test and amniotic fluid volume (Miller 1996. Although the positive predictive value of these 2 tests is equivalent to a biophysical profile score of 6, the perinatal mortality is still increased over a normal test score of 8 or 10 (Manning 1990b. The false positive rate with the modified biophysical profile score is also substantially higher. "nConclusions: The fetus expresses its well being or compromised status through a number of different biophysical activities that are controlled by different central nervous system centers. The utilization of the biophysical score for antepartum surveillance in high-risk patients has resulted in a reduction in perinatal mortality when compared to historical controls. The appropriate management of the viable fetus with an abnormal biophysical profile score may also decrease long-term neurological morbidity (Manning 1998. "nIt is unlikely that in the future additional variables will be added to the biophysical profile score. However, perhaps the incorporation of the fetal state (i.e., eye movements and Doppler flow studies of specific fetal vessels (umbilical artery, middle cerebral artery, ductus venosus will be incorporated into a complete assessment of the fetal condition "n "nTable 1. Components of the 30 Minute Biophysical Profile Score "nComponent "nDefinition "nFetal movements "n> 3 body or limb movements "nFetal tone "nOne episode of active extension and flexion of the limbs; opening and closing of hand "nFetal breathing movements "n>1 episode of >30

  9. Pattern of Rheumatic Fever in Egyptian Children Younger Than 5 Years

    Ibrahim, L. A.; Fattouh, A. M.; Hamza, H. S.; Attia, W. A.

    2013-01-01

    Aims: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is common between 5-15 years, uncommon with different presentation 25 in children below 5 years. The aim of this study is to assess the frequency and characterize the pattern of 26 presentation of rheumatic fever (RF) in Egyptian children younger than 5 years. Study Design: Retrospective study. Place and Duration of the Study: Pediatric department, cardiology division, Cairo University Children’s Hospital, 5 years follow up. Methodology: We retrospectiv...

  10. Mammographic texture resemblance generalizes as an independent risk factor for breast cancer

    Nielsen, Mads; Vachon, Celine M.; Scott, Christopher G.;

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION:Breast density has been established as a major risk factor for breast cancer. We have previously demonstrated that mammographic texture resemblance (MTR), recognizing the local texture patterns of the mammogram, is also a risk factor for breast cancer, independent of percent breast...... continuously for association with breast cancer using odds ratios (OR) and adjusting for known risk factors including age, body mass index (BMI), and hormone usage.RESULTS:The mean ages of S1 and S2 were 58.0+/-5.7years and 55.2+/-10.5years, respectively. The MTR scores on S1 showed significant capability to......: mammograms on average 8.5years prior to diagnosis, risk factor information and percent mammographic density (PD) estimated using Cumulus were available. MTR scores estimated from S1, S2 and S1+S2 (the latter two as cross-validations) were evaluated in S2. MTR scores were analyzed as both quartiles and...

  11. A study of profile of disability certificate seeking patients with schizophrenia over a 5 year period

    Yatan Pal Singh Balhara

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Schizophrenia has been identified as one of the most disabling condition known to mankind. Until recently there was no published literature on disability certification seeking behavior of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. The current study aimed at understanding the profile of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia seeking disability certification for a tertiary level multispecialty hospital in India. Materials a nd Methods: The study was carried out at the Psychiatry department for a tertiary care hospital in India. The evaluation of the subjects was carried out in the presence of a primary care giver. First, the diagnosis was established using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Conditions (ICD-10. Subsequently, the disability was assessed using Indian Disability Evaluation Assessment Scale (IDEAS. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences software version 17. Results: A total of 169 subjects seeking disability certification over the study period of 5 years were diagnosed with schizophrenia. Out of 169 subjects 132 (78.1% were male and 37 (21.9% were female. There was a statistically significant difference in the marital status of the male and female study subjects. Family history of psychiatric illness was positive in 9.8% of male subjects and 10.8% of female subjects. There was no significant difference between male and female subjects for the duration of illness and duration of being on treatment. Male and female subjects did not differ significantly on the IDEAS global score, personal care, interpersonal interaction, and understanding and communication domains of IDEAS. The two groups differed significantly on the work domain. Conclusions: Majority of patients with schizophrenia seeking disability certificate continue to be male. However, male and female subjects tend to differ very little on various socio-demographic and illness related variables. The levels

  12. Variability and Diagnostic Accuracy of Speech Intelligibility Scores in Children

    Hustad, Katherine C.; Oakes, Ashley; Allison, Kristen

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: We examined variability of speech intelligibility scores and how well intelligibility scores predicted group membership among 5-year-old children with speech motor impairment (SMI) secondary to cerebral palsy and an age-matched group of typically developing (TD) children. Method: Speech samples varying in length from 1-4 words were…

  13. Impact of Toxicity Grade and Scoring System on the Relationship Between Mean Lung Dose and Risk of Radiation Pneumonitis in a Large Cohort of Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Purpose: To compute the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) as a function of mean lung dose (MLD), with RP scored using three grading systems and analyzed at four threshold levels of toxicity in a large cohort of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with definitive radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: On the basis of medical records and radiographic images, RP was scored retrospectively in 442 patients with NSCLC who had ≥6 months of follow-up after the end of RT. The severity of RP was scored for each patient using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Common Toxicity Criteria, version 2.0 (CTC2.0); the NCI Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0 (CTCAE3.0); and the grading system of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG). For each grading system and for each of four levels of toxicity (Grade ≥1, ≥2, ≥3, ≥4), the Lyman, logistic, and log-logistic normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were fitted to the data as functions of MLD. The parameter estimates from the model fits are listed in table form, and the RP risk estimates are presented graphically for the Lyman and log-logistic NTCP models. Results: The results presented here illustrate the impact of scoring system and level of toxicity on the relationship between MLD and RP risk. Conclusions: These results facilitate quantitative comparisons between our data and studies of RP risk reported by others, and several examples of such comparisons are provided.

  14. The use of modern quality improvement approaches to strengthen African health systems: a 5-year agenda.

    Heiby, James

    2014-04-01

    There is a growing international consensus that African health systems need to improve, but no agreement on how to accomplish this. From the perspective of modern quality improvement (QI), a central issue for low performance in these health systems is the relative neglect of health-care processes. Both health system leaders and international donors have focused their efforts elsewhere, producing noteworthy health gains. But these gains are at risk if health systems do not develop the capacity to study and improve care processes. Substantial experience with QI in Africa shows impressive potential for broad-based process improvement. But this experience also highlights the need for modifying these growing programs to incorporate a more rigorous learning component to address challenges that have emerged recently. The addition of a region-wide knowledge management program could increase the efficiency of each country's QI program by learning from the experiences of other programs. With a coordinated donor initiative, it is reasonable to project that within 5 years, evidence-based improvement will become a norm in health services, and African health systems will approach the model of a learning organization. PMID:24481053

  15. EPRI geothermal energy R and D 5-year program plan (1975 to 1979)

    Spencer, D.F.

    1974-10-17

    The recommended EPRI Geothermal Research and Development 5-Year Program Plan has been defined to complement and provide focus for federally sponsored geothermal energy R and D efforts. The scope of the program includes: verification of hydrothermal reservoir capability and low salinity brine heat transfer characteristics at a potential demonstration site followed by design, development and construction of a low salinity hydrothermal demonstration plant in conjunction with an electric utility or utility consortium. Development of a comprehensive set of Guidelines Manuals for use by utility management and engineers spanning the full range of geothermal resource utilization from exploration through plant startup, including not only technical, but environmental, institutional and regulatory factors. A subprogram to define the potential and requirements for Geothermal Systems. A supporting research and technology subprogram oriented toward minimizing the risk associated with utilization of low and high salinity hydrothermal sources. An Advanced Research and Technology subprogram to assess the potential of geopressure resources in conjunction with the Federal government and limited R and D on advanced concepts for utilization of hydrothermal fluids. (MHR)

  16. Malpractice and radiologists, update 1986: an 11.5-year perspective

    All medical malpractice lawsuits filed in Cook County, IL, from January 1, 1980, through June 30, 1986, were reviewed and compared with similar data for the period of January 1, 1975, through December 30, 1979. A total of 11,203 suits were filed during the 11.5-year period; of these, 1391 (12%) were radiology related. The latter were categorized into six groups. The largest was missed radiologic diagnoses, which accounted for 40% of the total. The remaining groups included complications, 19%; failure to order, 17%; radiation therapy, 11%; slip and fall, 5%; and miscellaneous, 8%. Over the 1975-1986 period, the rise in the number of suits alleging radiologic misses outpaced all other groups. Although the most common type of miss continues to involve fractures, the frequency of missed carcinomas has grown at a disproportionately faster rate. Misses specifically involving CT, nuclear medicine, and sonography also are becoming more prevalent. Radiographic misses continue to occur at an average rate of 30%, with little hope of improvement. Methods to combat the rising number of malpractice suits are discussed. It is concluded that although programs to educate radiologists on risk management should continue, the ultimate solution may be a more enlightened public attitude as to what actually constitutes malpractice, and institution of tort reform measures by federal and state legislatures

  17. Kattan列线图和CAPRA评分预测中国前列腺癌患者根治术后生化复发的效能验证%Validation of Kattan nomogram and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment scores in anticipating the recurrence free survival after radical prostatectomy of Chinese patients

    王海峰; 高旭; 王燕; 鲁欣; 马春飞; 施振凯; 杨波; 盛夏; 许传亮

    2015-01-01

    ) scores in anticipating the 5 year recurrence free survival (RFS) after radical prostatectomy of Chinese patients.Methods Radical prostatectomy was performed in 295 patients from January 2001 to February 2008 in our hospital,and 211 of them were enrolled in this study after excluded the patients who had been performed neoadjuvant hormonal therapy,adjuvant hormonal therapy,or adjuvant radiotherapy.The surgeries were all performed by 3 experienced surgeons through retropubic approach.PSA was detected 2 weeks and 6 weeks after surgery,and then continuous monitoring of PSA every three months on the first year,and then every 6 months afterwards.The anticipated 5 year biochemical RFS was evaluated by Kattan nomogram and CAPRA scores which were calculated according to the PSA,Gleason scores,biopsy results and age.Finally,the data of the present study were compared with the original data of Kattan nomogram and CAPRA scores.Results The 5 year biochemical RFS was 83.9% in present study,however,the rate anticipated by Kattan nomogram and CAPRA scores was 52.8%±25.6% and 47.6%±26.9%.After compared the present study with other two studies,it seemed that the present PSA value was significantly higher than that in the original two studies ; and the present intermediate or low Gleason score rate was significantly lower than that of the original two studies (P<0.01).However,the three studies were comparable in clinical stage.The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.69 (95%CI,0.60-0.78) if we predicted the 5 year biochemical RFS rate with Kattan nomogram,and it would be 0.65 (95%CI,0.56-0.73) if with CAPRA scores.Conclusions The clinical characteristic of the present study is different from that of the other two studies with which other authors built the Kattan nomogram and CAPRA scores predicting system.And the differences,which are featured by higher PSA and Gleason scores,could be the reasons for inaccurate anticipation in Chinese population with

  18. Early Number and Arithmetic Performance of Ecuadorian 4-5-Year-Olds

    Bojorque, Gina; Torbeyns, Joke; Moscoso, Jheni; Van Nijlen, Daniël; Verschaffel, Lieven

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed at (a) constructing a reliable and valid test to assess Ecuadorian 4-5-year olds' number and arithmetic skills; (b) providing empirical data on Ecuadorian 4-5-year olds' number and arithmetic skills; and (c) confronting these children's actual performances with the performances expected by national experts in this domain. We…

  19. A 5-year longitudinal study of fatigue in patients with late-onset sequelae of poliomyelitis.

    Tersteeg, I.M.; Koopman, F.S.; Stolwijk-Swuste, J.M.; Beelen, A.; Nollet, F.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To study the severity and 5-year course of fatigue in patients with late-onset sequelae of poliomyelitis (LOSP) and to identify physical and psychosocial determinants of fatigue. Design: Prospective cohort study with 5 measurements over 5 years. Setting: University hospital.Participants:

  20. A 5-Year Longitudinal Study of Fatigue in Patients With Late-Onset Sequelae of Poliomyelitis

    I.M. Tersteeg; F.S. Koopman; J.M. Stolwijk-Swüste; A. Beelen; F. Nollet

    2011-01-01

    Tersteeg IM, Koopman FS, Stolwijk-Swuste JM, Beelen A, Nollet F, on behalf of the CARPA Study Group. A 5-year longitudinal study of fatigue in patients with late-onset sequelae of poliomyelitis. Arch Phys Med Rehabil 2011; 92:899-904. Objectives: To study the severity and 5-year course of fatigue in

  1. 77 FR 5491 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales

    2012-02-03

    ...; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic...; request for information. SUMMARY: NMFS announces a 5-year review of sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis... of any such information on sei whales that has become available since that has become available...

  2. Escore TIMI no infarto agudo do miocárdio conforme níveis de estratificação de prognóstico Score TIMI en el infarto agudo de miocardio según niveles de estratificación de pronóstico TIMI risk score for acute myocardial infarction according to prognostic stratification

    Jaqueline Locks Pereira

    2009-08-01

    hospitalaria postinfarto fue de un 17,5%. En el grupo de bajo riesgo no hubo óbito. La mortalidad fue del 8,1% en el grupo de medio riesgo y de un 55,6% en el de alto riesgo. El riesgo de muerte para casos de alto riesgo fue 14,1 veces mayor con relación a los casos de medio y bajo riesgo (IC95% = 4,4 a 44,1 y pBACKGROUND: The TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score is derived from clinical trial involving patients who are eligible for fibrinolysis. As the risk profiles of these cases differ from those found in non-selected populations, it is important to review the applicability of the score in usual clinical conditions. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the management and clinical evolution of hospital inpatients with acute myocardial infarction, according to risk stratification by the TIMI score. METHODS: We evaluated, retrospectively, 103 cases of acute myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation admitted to the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição - Tubarão, in 2004 and 2005. The cases were analyzed in three risk groups according to the TIMI score. RESULTS: The hospital mortality after infarction was 17.5%. In the low-risk group there was no death. The mortality was 8.1% in the medium risk group and 55.6% in the high-risk group. The risk of death in cases of high risk was 14.1 times higher than in the cases of medium and low risk (95% CI = 4.4 to 44.1 and p <0.001. The chance of receiving fibrinolytic was 50% lower in the high-risk group in relation to the low risk group (95% CI = 0.27 to 0.85, p = 0.004. CONCLUSION: There was a progressive increase in mortality and incidence of in-hospital complications according to the stratification by the TIMI score. High risk patients received thrombolytic less frequently than the patients at low risk.

  3. MYOCARDIAL BRIDGING - CLINICAL AND ANGIOGRAPHIC PROFILE IN LAST 5 YEARS; A STUDY OF 129 CASES

    Abhilash S P

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Aims of study : To assess the clinical and angiographical profile of myocardial bridging from consecutive coronary angiograms done over last 5 years at Medical college, Thiruvananthapuram. To assess the risk of cardiovascular events and the risk of accelerated atherosclerosis in isolated myocardial bridging. Methods : Consecutive coronary angiograms done at Medical college Thiruvananthapuram from 04/02/2005 to 31/03/2010 were reviewed for myocardial bridging. A total of 10492 coronary angiograms were reviewed. Myocardial bridges with systolic lumen reduction of more than 50% were considered for analysis. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA was used for analysis. Clinical presentation as well as correlation with structural heart disease and coronary heart disease was assessed. Results: Incidence of myocardial bridges was 1.23%. Of the 129 patients with myocardial bridges 63 ( 48.8% had associated significant coronary artery disease. Remaining 66 (51.2% patients presented with isolated bridges. Out of these 66 patients with isolated myocardial bridges, 7 (10.6% patients presented with acute myocardial infarction and 3 (4.5% presented with cardiac arrhythmias. Of the 63 patients with significant coronary disease 11 (17.5% patients had single vessel disease and they had the culprit lesion and myocardial bridge seen in the same vessel. Most common location of myocardial bridge was mid LAD (64.9% followed by distal LAD (23.8%. Length of bridge was 20 mm in 35.7%. Mean percentage of systolic obliteration by the bridge was 74.5%. 100% systolic obliteration was seen in 7.79% of isolated bridges and in 9.79% of bridges with CAD. Among 120 rhuematic heart disease patients who underwent coronary angiogram, 10 (8.3% patients had myocardial bridging. 12.1% of all HCM patients who underwent coronary angiograms had myocardial bridging. Conclusion: Myocardial bridging can be lethal- can accelerate atherosclerosis, can precipitate acute MIs and life

  4. Fulminate Hepatic Failure in a 5 Year Old Female after Inappropriate Acetaminophen Treatment

    Kasmi, Irena; Sallabanda, Sashenka; Kasmi, Gentian

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Acetaminophen is a drug widely used in children because of its safety and efficacy. Although the risk of its toxicity is lower in children such reactions occur in pediatric patients from intentional overdoses and less frequently attributable to unintended inappropriate dosing. The aim of reporting this case is to attract the attention to the risk of the acetaminophen toxicity when administered in high doses. CASE PRESENTATION: We report here a 5 year old girl who developed fulminate liver failure with renal impairment and acute pancreatitis, as a result of acetaminophen toxicity caused from unintentional repeated supratherapeutic ingestion, with a total administered dose of 4800 mg in three consecutive days, 1600 mg/day, approximately 90 mg/kg/day. The blood level of acetaminophen after 10 hours of the last administered dose was 32 mg/l. The patient presented with high fever, jaundice, lethargic, agitating with abdominal pain accompanied by encephalopathy. The liver function test revealed with high level of alanine aminotransferase 5794 UI/l and aspartate aminotransferase 6000 UI/l. Early initiation of oral N-acetylcysteine (NAC) after biochemical evidence of liver toxicity was beneficial with rapid improvement of liver enzymes, hepatic function and encephalopathy. During the course of the illness the child developed acute pancreatitis with hyperamylasemia 255 UI/L and hyperlypasemia 514 UI/L. Patient totally recovered within 29 days. CONCLUSION: Healthcare providers should considered probable acetaminophen toxicity in any child who has received the drug and presented with liver failure. When there is a high index of suspicion of acetaminophen toxicity NAC should be initiated and continued until there are no signs of hepatic dysfunction.

  5. Decompositions of Proper Scores

    Bröcker, Jochen

    2008-01-01

    Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasts. A popular example is the Brier score, which allows for a decomposition into terms related to the sharpness (or information content) and to the reliability of the forecast. This feature renders the Brier score a very intuitive measure of forecast quality. In this paper, it is demonstrated that all strictly proper scoring rules allow for a similar decomposition into reliability and sharpness related terms. This finding underpins the importance of proper scores and yields further credence to the practice of measuring forecast quality by proper scores. Furthermore, the effect of averaging multiple probabilistic forecasts on the score is discussed. It is well known that the Brier score of a mixture of several forecasts is never worse that the average score of the individual forecasts. This property hinges on the convexity of the Brier score, a property not universal among proper scores. Arguably, this phenomenon portends...

  6. Cardiometabolic risk assessments by body mass index z-score or waist-to-height ratio in a multiethnic sample of sixth-graders

    Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabol...

  7. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, S.; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Anthonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

  8. Predictive score for early diagnosis of acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD).

    Tada, Hiroko; Takanashi, Jun-ichi; Okuno, Hideo; Kubota, Masaya; Yamagata, Takanori; Kawano, Gou; Shiihara, Takashi; Hamano, Shin-ichiro; Hirose, Shinichi; Hayashi, Takuya; Osaka, Hitoshi; Mizuguchi, Masashi

    2015-11-15

    Acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD) at onset manifests an early seizure (ES) usually lasting more than 30 min. Following ES, some patients exhibit almost clear consciousness with no neurological symptoms, and no MRI abnormality for a few days, which may lead to an initial misdiagnosis of prolonged febrile seizures (PFS). To allow an early diagnosis of AESD, we retrospectively analyzed clinical manifestations, laboratory data, and radiologic and EEG findings in patients with AESD (n=62) having ES of over 30 min, and ones with PFS (n=54), using logistic regression analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that an age below 1.5 years and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 14 or less than 14 (Japan Coma Scale score of 1 or higher) were high risk factors of developing AESD. We proposed an AESD prediction score system consisting of consciousness level, age, duration of convulsions, enforcement of mechanical intubation, and aspartate aminotransferase, blood glucose and creatinine levels (full score: 9), the mean scores in AESD and PFS being 5.9 and 1.8, which were significantly different (psystem for differentiating patients with AESD and PFS around the time of ES (score of 4 or more than 4 suggesting AESD), which may contribute to early therapeutic intervention and an improved neurologic outcome. PMID:26333951

  9. Percutaneous Nucleoplasty Using Coblation Technique for the Treatment of Chronic Nonspecific Low Back Pain: 5-year Follow-up Results

    Da-Jiang Ren; Xiu-Mei Liu; Sui-Yong Du; Tian-Sheng Sun; Zhi-Cheng Zhang; Fang Li

    2015-01-01

    Background:This study evaluated the efficacy of percutaneous nucleoplasty using coblation technique for the treatment of chronic nonspecific low back pain (LBP),after 5 years of follow-up.Methods:From September 2004 to November 2006,172 patients underwent percutaneous nucleoplasty for chronic LBP in our department.Forty-one of these patients were followed up for a mean period of 67 months.Nucleoplasty was performed at L3/4 in 1 patient;L4/5 in 25 patients;L5/S1 in 2 patients;L3/4 and L4/5 in 2 patients;L4/5 and L5/S1 in 7 patients;and L3/4,L4/5,and L5/S1 in 4 patients.Patients were assessed preoperatively and at 1 week,1 year,3 years,and 5 years postoperatively.Pain was graded using a 10-cm Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and the percentage reduction in pain score was calculated at each postoperative time point.The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was used to assess disability-related to lumbar spine degeneration,and patient satisfaction was assessed using the modified MacNab criteria.Results:There were significant differences among the preoperative,1-week postoperative,and 3-year postoperative VAS and ODI scores,but not between the 3-and 5-year postoperative scores.There were no significant differences in age,sex,or preoperative symptoms between patients with effective and ineffective treatment,but there were significant differences in the number of levels treated,Pfirrmann grade of intervertebral disc degeneration,and provocative discography findings between these two groups.Excellent or good patient satisfaction was achieved in 87.9% of patients after 1 week,72.4% after 1 year,67.7% after 3 years,and 63.4% at the last follow-up.Conclusions:Although previously published short-and medium-term outcomes after percutaneous nucleoplasty appeared to be satisfactory,our long-term follow-up results show a significant decline in patient satisfaction over time.Percutaneous nucleoplasty is a safe and simple technique,with therapeutic effectiveness for the treatment of

  10. Proposal of criteria to select candidates with colorectal liver metastases for hepatic resection: Comparison of our scoring system to the positive number of risk factors

    Ikuo Nagashima; Tadahiro Takada; Miki Adachi; Hirokazu Nagawa; Tetsuichiro Muto; Kota Okinaga

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To select accurately good candidates of hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastasis.METHODS: Thirteen clinicopathological features, which were recognized only before or during surgery, were selected retrospectively in 81 consecutive patients in one hospital (Group Ⅰ ). These features were entered into a multivariate analysis to determine independent and significant variables affecting long-term prognosis after hepatectomy. Using selected variables, we created a scoring formula to classify patients with colorectal liver metastases to select good candidates for hepatic resection. The usefulness of the new scoring system was examined in a series of 92 patients from another hospital (Group Ⅱ ), comparing the number of selected variables.RESULTS: Among 81 patients of Group Ⅰ, multivariate analysis, i.e. Cox regression analysis, showed that multiple tumors, the largest tumor greater than 5 cm in diameter, and resectable extrahepatic metastases were significant and independent prognostic factors for poor survival after hepatectomy (P < 0.05). In addition, these three factors: serosa invasion, local lymph node metastases of primary cancers, and postoperative disease free interval less than 1 year including synchronous hepatic metastasis, were not significant,however, they were selected by a stepwise method of Cox regression analysis (0.05 < P < 0.20). Using these six variables, we created a new scoring formula to classify patients with colorectal liver metastases. Finally,our new scoring system not only classified patients in Group Ⅰ very well, but also that in Group Ⅱ, according to long-term outcomes after hepatic resection. The positive number of these six variables also classified them well.CONCLUSION: Both, our new scoring system and the positive number of significant prognostic factors are useful to classify patients with colorectal liver metastases in the preoperative selection of good candidates for hepatic resection.

  11. What Sexual Recidivism Rates Are Associated With Static-99R and Static-2002R Scores?

    Hanson, R Karl; Thornton, David; Helmus, Leslie-Maaike; Babchishin, Kelly M

    2016-04-01

    Empirical actuarial risk tools are routinely used to assess the recidivism risk of adult sexual offenders. Compared with other forms of risk assessment, one advantage of actuarial risk tools is that they provide recidivism rate estimates. Previous research, however, suggests that there is considerable variability in the recidivism rates associated with the most commonly used sexual offender risk assessment tools (Static-99/R, Static-2002/R). The current study examined the extent to which the variability in the recidivism rates across 21 Static-99R studies (N = 8,805) corresponded to the normative groups proposed by the STATIC development group (routine, treatment, high risk/high need). We found strong evidence that routine (i.e., complete) samples were, on average, less likely to reoffend with a sexual offense than offenders in the high-risk/high-need samples (i.e., those explicitly preselected on risk-relevant variables external to STATIC scales). The differences between routine/complete and high-risk/high-need samples, however, were only consistently observed for offenders with low or moderate scores; for offenders with high STATIC scores, the 5-year sexual recidivism rates for these two groups were not meaningfully different. There was only limited evidence to support treatment samples as a distinct sample type; consequently, the use of separate normative tables for treatment samples is not recommended. The current results reinforce the value of regularly updating the norms for empirical actuarial risk tools. Options are discussed on how STATIC scores could be used to inform recidivism rates estimates in applied assessments. PMID:25810478

  12. A scoring model based on neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts recurrence of HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation.

    Guo-Ying Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR has been proposed to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the cut-off values are empirical. We determined the optimal cut-off value to predict HCC recurrence after liver transplantation (LT and further established a scoring model based on NLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed the outcome of 101 HBV-associated HCC patients undergoing LT. Preoperative risk factors for tumor recurrence were evaluated by univariate analysis. By using ROC analysis, NLR≥3 was considered elevated. The disease-free survival (DFS and overall survival (OS for patients with high NLR was significantly worse than that for patients with normal NLR (the 5-year DFS and OS of 28.5% and 19.5% vs. 64.9% and 61.8%, respectively; P5 cm, tumor number >3, macrovascular invasion, AFP≥400 µg/L, NLR≥3, and HBV-DNA level >5 log10 copies/mL were preoperative predictors of DFS. Cox regression analysis showed macrovascular invasion, tumor number, and high NLR were independent prognostic factors. We then established a preoperative prognostic score based on multivariate analysis. Each factor was given a score of 1. Area under the ROC curve of the score was 0.781. All nine patients with score 3 developed recurrence within 6 months after LT. Of 71 patients without vascular invasion, three patients with both tumor number >3 and NLR≥3 developed recurrence within 14 months after LT while the 5-year DFS and OS for patients with a score of 0 or 1 were 68.1% and 62.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Preoperative elevated NLR significantly increases the risk of recurrence in patients underwent LT for HCC. Patients with both NLR≥3 and tumor number >3 are not a good indication for LT. Our score model may aid in the selection of patients that would most benefit from transplantation for HCC.

  13. Change in DASH diet score and cardiovascular risk factors in youth with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

    Barnes, T.L.; Crandell, J. L.; Bell, R. A.; Mayer-Davis, E J; Dabelea, D.; Liese, A D

    2013-01-01

    Youth with diabetes are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet has been shown to improve CVD risk. In this study, we evaluated whether changes in diet quality as characterized by DASH are associated with changes in CVD risk factors in youth with diabetes over time. Longitudinal mixed models were applied to data from 797 participants in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study representing three time points: base...

  14. Assessment of the relationship between selected cardiovascular risk factors and the indices of intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium score in various stages of chronic kidney disease.

    Szarejko-Paradowska, Anna; Gluba-Brzózka, Anna; Pietruszyński, Robert; Rysz, Jacek

    2015-12-01

    Renal diseases pose a growing epidemiological and health problem worldwide. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of deaths among patients with chronic kidney disease. Increased risk of atherosclerosis in these patients results from the occurrence of traditional and non-traditional risk factors. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between selected risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (age, sex, dyslipidemia, hypertension, etc.), intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium score in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 2, 3 and 4. This study included 60 patients with chronic kidney disease divided into 3 groups on the basis of disease stage and control group consisting of 20 individuals without diagnosed chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular diseases. Blood analysis and blood pressure measurements were taken. All patients underwent carotid artery ultrasound with the assessment of the intima-media thickness, and heart CT scan in order to assess the index of coronary artery calcification. Logistic regression analysis revealed statistically significant correlation between blood vessels calcification and age--the increase in age by 1 year was associated with the increase in the risk of coronary artery calcification by 6.7 %. The increase in IMT by about 0.1 mm raises the risk of calcification by about 2 %. Second logistic regression model revealed that one-year increase in age was associated with an increase in the risk of intima-media thickening by 6.5 %. Occurrence of hypertension was associated with a ninefold increase in intima-media thickening risk in comparison with patients with normal blood pressure. To sum up, age and hypertension were associated with the growth of IMT in CKD patients, while age and exposure to tobacco smoke were associated with the increase in coronary artery calcium score. The relationship between thickening of IMT and the increase in calcification index in patients was also observed in study

  15. Parenting style, the home environment, and screen time of 5-year-old children; the 'be active, eat right' study.

    Lydian Veldhuis

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The global increase in childhood overweight and obesity has been ascribed partly to increases in children's screen time. Parents have a large influence on their children's screen time. Studies investigating parenting and early childhood screen time are limited. In this study, we investigated associations of parenting style and the social and physical home environment on watching TV and using computers or game consoles among 5-year-old children. METHODS: This study uses baseline data concerning 5-year-old children (n = 3067 collected for the 'Be active, eat right' study. RESULTS: Children of parents with a higher score on the parenting style dimension involvement, were more likely to spend >30 min/day on computers or game consoles. Overall, families with an authoritative or authoritarian parenting style had lower percentages of children's screen time compared to families with an indulgent or neglectful style, but no significant difference in OR was found. In families with rules about screen time, children were less likely to watch TV>2 hrs/day and more likely to spend >30 min/day on computers or game consoles. The number of TVs and computers or game consoles in the household was positively associated with screen time, and children with a TV or computer or game console in their bedroom were more likely to watch TV>2 hrs/day or spend >30 min/day on computers or game consoles. CONCLUSION: The magnitude of the association between parenting style and screen time of 5-year-olds was found to be relatively modest. The associations found between the social and physical environment and children's screen time are independent of parenting style. Interventions to reduce children's screen time might be most effective when they support parents specifically with introducing family rules related to screen time and prevent the presence of a TV or computer or game console in the child's room.

  16. Variability in lateralised blood flow response to language is associated with language development in children aged 1-5 years.

    Kohler, M; Keage, H A D; Spooner, R; Flitton, A; Hofmann, J; Churches, O F; Elliott, S; Badcock, N A

    2015-01-01

    The developmental trajectory of language lateralisation over the preschool years is unclear. We explored the relationship between lateralisation of cerebral blood flow velocity response to object naming and cognitive performance in children aged 1-5 years. Functional transcranial Doppler ultrasound was used to record blood flow velocity bilaterally from middle cerebral arteries during a naming task in 58 children (59% male). At group level, the Lateralisation Index (LI) revealed a greater relative increase in cerebral blood flow velocity within the left as compared to right middle cerebral artery. After controlling for maternal IQ, left-lateralised children displayed lower expressive language scores compared to right- and bi-lateralised children, and reduced variability in LI. Supporting this, greater variability in lateralised response, rather than mean response, was indicative of greater expressive language ability. Findings suggest that a delayed establishment of language specialisation is associated with better language ability in the preschool years. PMID:25950747

  17. Causes of Mortality in Newborns and Children Under 5 Years of Age in Northern Iran

    FS Sharifi

    2002-01-01

    1- A survey of the causes of mortality in newborns and children under 5 years of age during 10 years (1988-1997) in northern Iran (Regions eastern and western bandpey, gatab and kolagarmahalleh in province babol) revealed following results: Average incidence of mortality in newborns and children under 5 years of age was 10.5 and 4 per thousand respectively. The most frequently encountered causes of death in children under 5 years of age were congenital anomalies (20.2%), infections (16.8%), p...

  18. Care for overweight children attending the 5-year preventive child health examination in general practice

    Andersen, Merethe Kousgaard; Christensen, Bo; Søndergaard, Jens

    2013-01-01

    -assessed overweight at the 5-year preventive child health examination (PCHE).Results. Out of 1135 children attending the 5-year PCHE, 171 were assessed overweight by the GP. According to the Danish body mass index (kg/m(2)) growth charts, 147 children were overweight. The GPs addressed their concern about the child...... cases.Conclusion. Various care activities were carried out for most children with GP-assessed overweight at the 5-year PCHE. However, the GP did not raise concern about the child's weight with the parents in almost one third of the children. It seems that there is a potential for improving the...

  19. Association between parental history of diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores in the PPP-Botnia and Framingham Offspring Studies

    Vassy, Jason L; Shrader, Peter; Jonsson, Anna Elisabet;

    2011-01-01

    Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown.......Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown....

  20. Distant comparison (more than 5 years) of external beam radiation and radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer

    Objective: Comparison of patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (RT) more than 5 years of the treatment. Material and Methods: We review charts of patients treated with PR or RT between 4/92 and 12/98 with clinically localized prostate cancer. Dose RT was 65 Gy. We reported digital rectal examination (DRE), PSA pretreatment, biopsies and evolution: progression, morbidity. Results: We evaluated 84 patients; 35 treated with RT, DRE+ 21, PSA range 5.6-38.2 ng/ml and Score Gleason (SG) 3-7; 49 patients treated with RP, DRE+ 17, PSA range 4.2-43, SG 3-9. We found capsular disruption in 20 (40.8%), 8 of them with seminal vesicles invaded; 4 had lymph node metastasis. PSA > 10 in 18 of 20 patients classified pT3. Of 29 pT1-2 patients, 18 had PSA 20. Two patients needed artificial urinary sphincter and 4 suffer light incontinence. After 5 years, 77% of irradiated patients had progression; 24 treated with RP had progression (48.9%), 5 were pT2. Conclusions: PR was better than RT to treat clinically localized prostate cancer, but more morbidity. Dose 65 Gy RT seems to be not enough to cure this neoplasm. PR was successful more than 80% of clinically stage T1c and PSA 20. (author)

  1. The Prevalence of Dental Caries in Primary Dentition in 4- to 5-Year-Old Preschool Children in Northern Palestine

    Zafer Azizi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To determine the prevalence of dental caries among a representative sample of preschool children (4-5 years old who were accompanied by their parents to the dental centre of the Arab American University in Jenin whether they come seeking dental treatment or as visitors with adult patients. Materials and Methods. 1376 children of both sexes were investigated by three calibrated and trained examiners for dental caries using the dmft index according to the WHO method. Results. 76% of the studied children have already experienced dental caries at the age of 4-5 years (1046 children. The mean dmft score was found to be 2.46 while the other 24% of children were caries-free. There was no significant difference in caries prevalence between boys and girls (77.2% versus 74.6%. Children of highly educated and college graduated mothers were found to have more fillings (restored teeth in comparison to those who belong to mothers who did not finish their secondary (high school education. Conclusion. The number of caries-free children in northern Palestine is still far from numbers found in developed countries. There is a real need to make improvements at the level of parents dental health education, application of preventive measures, and dietary habits among preschool children.

  2. A 5-Year Investigation of Children's Adaptive Functioning Following Conformal Radiation Therapy for Localized Ependymoma

    Netson, Kelli L.; Conklin, Heather M. [Department of Psychology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Wu Shengjie; Xiong Xiaoping [Department of Biostatistics, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org [Division of Radiation Oncology, St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies have the potential to preserve cognitive outcomes in children with ependymoma; however, functional behavior remains uninvestigated. This longitudinal investigation prospectively examined intelligence quotient (IQ) and adaptive functioning during the first 5 years after irradiation in children diagnosed with ependymoma. Methods and Materials: The study cohort consisted of 123 children with intracranial ependymoma. Mean age at irradiation was 4.60 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-5.35). Serial neurocognitive evaluations, including an age-appropriate IQ measure and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS), were completed before irradiation, 6 months after treatment, and annually for 5 years. A total of 579 neurocognitive evaluations were included in these analyses. Results: Baseline IQ and VABS were below normative means (P<.05), although within the average range. Linear mixed models revealed stable IQ and VABS across the follow-up period, except for the VABS Communication Index, which declined significantly (P=.015). Annual change in IQ (-.04 points) did not correlate with annual change in VABS (-.90 to +.44 points). Clinical factors associated with poorer baseline performance (P<.05) included preirradiation chemotherapy, cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement, number and extent of surgical resections, and younger age at treatment. No clinical factors significantly affected the rate of change in scores. Conclusions: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies provided relative sparing of functional outcomes including IQ and adaptive behaviors, even in very young children. Communication skills remained vulnerable and should be the target of preventive and rehabilitative interventions.

  3. Developmental neuropsychological assessment of 4- to 5-year-old children born following Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD): A pilot study.

    Sacks, Gilat Chaya; Altarescu, Gheona; Guedalia, Judith; Varshaver, Irit; Gilboa, Tal; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Eldar-Geva, Talia

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate developmental neuropsychological profiles of 4- to 5-year-old children born after Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). Twenty-seven participants received a neurological examination and a battery of neuropsychological assessments including Wechsler Preschool & Primary Scale of Intelligence - Third Edition (WPPSI-III; cognitive development), Preschool Language Scale, Fourth Edition (PLS-4; language development), Wide Range Assessment of Visual Motor Abilities (visual motor abilities), Childhood Autism Rating Scales II (a screening test for autistic spectrum disorders), and the Miles ABC Test (ocular dominance). Parental questionnaires included the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function Preschool Version (BRIEF-P; executive function), Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Carey Temperament Scales Behavioral Style Questionnaire (socioemotional development and temperament), and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Interview Edition, Second Edition (general adaptive behavior). Subjects' tests results were compared to each test's norms. Children born after PGD demonstrated scores within the normal or above-normal ranges for all developmental outcomes (mean ± SD): WPPSI-III-VIQ 107.4 ± 14.4 (p = .013), PLS-4-Total 113.2 ± 12.4, p children had a significant difference between their VIQ and PIQ scores (compared to 27% in the general population). One subject was found to show possible signs of autistic spectrum disorder, although a family history of autism was noted. In conclusion, in this pilot study, children assessed at age 4-5 years and conceived after PGD displayed developmental neuropsychological outcomes within normal limits as compared to their chronologic peers. A larger study is needed to evaluate and follow the neuropsychological development of children born after PGD. PMID:25774437

  4. Discrepancy between coronary artery calcium score and HeartScore in middle-aged Danes

    Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt; Sand, Niels Peter; Nørgaard, Bjarne;

    2012-01-01

    Background: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is an independent and incremental risk marker. This marker has previously not been compared to the HeartScore risk model. Design: A random sample of 1825 citizens (men and women, 50 or 60 years of age) was invited for screening. Methods: Using the...... HeartScore model, the 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events based on gender, age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol was estimated. A low risk was defined as...

  5. PERIPARTUM HY STERECTOMY: A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PROCREATIVE POTENTIAL & SAFE - MOTHERHOOD: A 5 YEARS RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

    Agnes Vijaya

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND : The term hysterectomy means surgical removal of uterus it can be either along with cervix or adnexae through different routes. The most commonly performed major elective gynecological surgery. The term Peripartum hysterectomy is used when performed either mostly by emergency as a maternal life saving measure within 24 hours after vaginal or abdominal delivery or as electively when indicated. OBJECTIVE : To study the incidence of peripartum hysterectomy ; to analyze its causes, risk factors, complications and feto - maternal morbidity and mortality at newly established tertiary care teaching hospital. PLACE OF STUDY : Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences (RIMS, Kadapa, YSR district, Andhra Pradesh, South India. DESIGN AND DURATION : Retrospective study of 5 years period, Jan . ’2010 to Dec . ’2014. MATERIALS AND METHODS : 42 cases of peripartum hysterectomised patients medical records reviewed for characteristics of current pregnancy and delivery, indications for peripartum hysterectomy, operative and post - operative complications, maternal and perinatal outcome evaluated. RESULTS : 42 cases of peripartum hysterectomy identified out of 32398 total deliveries (1.3 in 1000. Among them 23 cases was Laparotomy for rupture uterus, Caesarean hysterectomy in 12 cases, followed by vaginal delivery in 6 cases and for chronic ectopic pregnancy with bilateral T.O. mass in 1 case (P2 L2 +Bil. T. with chronic ectopic for failed tubectomy. No Live Children in 9 cases & 1 Live Child in 19 cases were identified and 2 or more Live Children in 14 cases. CONCLUSIONS : The incidence of peripartum hysterectomy is similar to the data found in studies of other Asian countries. Most frequent indication being rupture uterus leading to high perinatal, maternal mortality and morbidity limiting the child bearing capacity (Procreative Potential. To reduce this high incidence of peripartum hysterectomy effective MCH services to be exercised at all the

  6. Abdominal computed tomography during pregnancy for suspected appendicitis: a 5-year experience at a maternity hospital.

    Shetty, Mahesh K; Garrett, Nan M; Carpenter, Wendy S; Shah, Yogesh P; Roberts, Candace

    2010-02-01

    The objective of this article is to evaluate the role of computed tomography (CT) in a pregnant patient with right lower quadrant pain in whom there was a clinical suspicion of acute appendicitis. During a 5-year period the clinical records of all pregnant women who underwent imaging examination for clinically suspected appendicitis were reviewe