WorldWideScience

Sample records for 30-year daily rainfall

  1. Preliminary results of a 30-year daily rainfall data base in southern Italy

    Federico, Stefano; Avolio, Elenio; Pasqualoni, Loredana;

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents first exploratory results and analyses performed on a 30-year (1978–2007) homogeneous precipitation database that has been created for the Calabria peninsula, southern Italy. The database consists of complete time series of daily values of precipitation from 88 stations distri...

  2. Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall sequences

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation of features of the r

  3. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi

    2007-08-01

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.

  4. Climatology of daily rainfall semivariance in The Netherlands

    van de Beek, C. Z.; Leijnse, H.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2010-03-01

    Rain gauges can offer high quality rainfall measurements at their location. Networks of rain gauges can offer better insight into the space-time variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates between points. While remote sensing systems, such as radars and networks of microwave links, can offer good insight in the spatial variability of rainfall they tend to have more problems in identifying the correct rain amounts at the ground. A way to estimate the variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them using fitted variograms. If a dense rain gauge network is lacking it is difficult to estimate accurate variograms. In this paper a 30-year dataset of daily rain accumulations gathered at 29 automatic weather stations operated by KNMI and a one-year dataset of 10 gauges in a network with a radius of 5 km around CESAR (Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research) are employed to estimate variograms. Fitted variogram parameters are shown to vary according to season, closely following simple cosine functions allowing for applications in catchment hydrology and rainfall field generation. Semivariances at short ranges during winter and spring tend to be underestimated, but summer and autumn are well predicted. This climatological semivariance can be employed to estimate the accuracy of the rainfall input to a hydrological model even with only few gauges in a given catchment area.

  5. STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF DAILY RAINFALL

    M Al Baqui Barkotulla

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water in the northwest part of Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall. The first order Markov chain model was used to simulate the sequence of rainfall occurrence using the method of transitional probability matrices, while daily rainfall amount was generated using a gamma distribution. The model parameters were estimate...

  6. A daily rainfall erosivity model for Western Amazonia

    Elsenbeer, Helmut; Cassel, Keith; Tinner, W.

    2008-01-01

    Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in ...

  7. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina)

    Stein, Ariel F.

    2016-01-01

    Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic “fluffy” surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088

  8. A nested multisite daily rainfall stochastic generation model

    Srikanthan, Ratnasingham; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2009-06-01

    SummaryThis paper describes a nested multisite daily rainfall generation model which preserves the statistics at daily, monthly and annual levels of aggregation. A multisite two-part daily model is nested in multisite monthly, then annual models. A multivariate set of fourth order Markov chains is used to model the daily occurrence of rainfall; the daily spatial correlation in the occurrence process is handled by using suitably correlated uniformly distributed variates via a Normal Scores Transform (NST) obtained from a set of matched multinormal pseudo-random variates, following Wilks [Wilks, D.S., 1998. Multisite generalisation of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model. Journal of Hydrology 210, 178-191]; we call it a hidden covariance model. A spatially correlated two parameter gamma distribution is used to obtain the rainfall depths; these values are also correlated via a specially matched hidden multinormal process. For nesting, the generated daily rainfall sequences at all the sites are aggregated to monthly rainfall values and these values are modified by a set of lag-1 autoregressive multisite monthly rainfall models. The modified monthly rainfall values are aggregated to annual rainfall and these are then modified by a lag-1 autoregressive multisite annual model. This nesting process ensures that the daily, monthly and annual means and covariances are preserved. The model was applied to a region with 30 rainfall sites, one of the five sets reported by Srikanthan [Srikanthan, R., 2005. Stochastic Generation of Daily Rainfall Data at a Number of Sites. Technical Report 05/7, CRC for Catchment Hydrology. Monash University, 66p]. A comparison of the historical and generated statistics shows that the model preserves all the important characteristics of rainfall at the daily, monthly and annual time scales, including the spatial structure. There are some outstanding features that need to be improved: depths of rainfall on isolated wet days and

  9. Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

    Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency

  10. Rainfall distributions in Sri Lanka in time and space : an analysis based on daily rainfall data.

    T. P. Burt; K.D.N. WEERASINGHE

    2014-01-01

    Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana), where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agric...

  11. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh

    2003-06-01

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  12. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  13. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every...

  14. A clonal selection algorithm model for daily rainfall data prediction.

    Noor Rodi, N S; Malek, M A; Ismail, Amelia Ritahani; Ting, Sie Chun; Tang, Chao-Wei

    2014-01-01

    This study applies the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) in an artificial immune system (AIS) as an alternative method to predicting future rainfall data. The stochastic and the artificial neural network techniques are commonly used in hydrology. However, in this study a novel technique for forecasting rainfall was established. Results from this study have proven that the theory of biological immune systems could be technically applied to time series data. Biological immune systems are nonlinear and chaotic in nature similar to the daily rainfall data. This study discovered that the proposed CSA was able to predict the daily rainfall data with an accuracy of 90% during the model training stage. In the testing stage, the results showed that an accuracy between the actual and the generated data was within the range of 75 to 92%. Thus, the CSA approach shows a new method in rainfall data prediction. PMID:25429452

  15. Meaningful QQ adjustment of TRMM/GPM daily rainfall estimates.

    Pegram, Geoff; Bardossy, Andras; Sinclair, Scott

    2016-04-01

    In many parts of the world, particularly in Africa, the daily raingauge networks are sparse. It is therefore sensible to use remote sensing estimates of precipitation to fill the gaps, but readily available products like TRMM and it successor GPM are frequently found to be biased. This presentation describes a method of bias adjustment of TRMM using quantile-quantile (QQ) transforms of the probability distributions of TRMM daily rainfall accumulations over its grid of 0.25 degree pixels/blocks. There are 4 main steps in the procedure. The first is to collect the daily gauge readings in those TRMM pixels containing gauges to obtain useful estimates of spatial rainfall for ground referencing. These estimates need to be adjusted from gauge to areal estimates taking the number of gauges in each pixel into account. We found that the distributions of the areal rainfall estimates are influenced by the number of gauges in each block, so we devised a means of transforming point to areal rainfall meaningfully. The second step is to determine the parameters of the probability distributions of the gauge-based block areal rainfall; we found that the Weibull distribution with 2 parameters is a suitable and useful choice. The pairs of Weibull parameters of rainfall on many blocks are correlated. To enable their interpolation, as an intermediate step, they have to be decorrelated using canonical decomposition. These transformed parameter pairs are then separately interpolated to empty blocks over the region of choice. They are then back-transformed at each TRMM pixel to Weibull parameters to provide gauge referenced daily rainfall distributions. The third step is to determine the Weibull distributions of the TRMM daily rainfall estimates in each block, based on their brief 11-year history. The fourth and last step is to QQ transform the individual daily TRMM rainfall estimates via the interpolated gauge-block rainfall distributions. This procedure achieves the desired corrected

  16. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  17. Neyman-Scott cluster model for daily rainfall processes in lower extremadura (Spain): Rainfall Generating Mechanisms

    Marroquin, A.; Garcia, J. A.; Garrido, J.; Mateos, V. L.

    1995-09-01

    A Neyman-Scott cluster model was fitted to the daily rainfall data recorded at the observatory of Badajoz (southwestern Spain) for the period 1901 1990. The data were previously homogenized. The goodness of the fit that indicated the daily rainfall process follows some Rainfall Generating Mechanism (RGM). Having decided on the criteria that a block of rainfall must fulfill to be considered as a RGM, a method was proposed to classify the days that belong to RGMs according to the 500 hPa and the surface topography. In this method each day is characterized by a string of 22 alphanumeric characters. From the subsequent analysis, the structure of the synoptic patterns associated with each RGM was deduced.

  18. Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: dynamical systems approach

    Cigdem Yalcin, G.; Rabassa, Pau; Beck, Christian

    2016-04-01

    We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q≈ 1.3. We discuss possible reasons for the emergence of this power law. In contrast, the waiting time distribution between rainy days is observed to follow a near-exponential distribution. A careful investigation shows that a q-exponential with q≈ 1.05 yields the best fit of the data. A Poisson process where the rate fluctuates slightly in a superstatistical way is discussed as a possible model for this. We discuss the extreme value statistics for extreme daily rainfall, which can potentially lead to flooding. This is described by Fréchet distributions as the corresponding distributions of the amount of daily rainfall decay with a power law. Looking at extreme event statistics of waiting times between rainy days (leading to droughts for very long dry periods) we obtain from the observed near-exponential decay of waiting times extreme event statistics close to Gumbel distributions. We discuss superstatistical dynamical systems as simple models in this context.

  19. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  20. Identification of anomalous motion of thunderstorms using daily rainfall fields

    del Moral, Anna; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Rigo, Tomeu

    2016-04-01

    Adverse weather phenomena in Catalonia (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) is commonly associated to heavy rains, large hail, strong winds, and/or tornados, all of them caused by thunderstorms. In most of the cases with adverse weather, thunderstorms vary sharply their trajectories in a concrete moment, changing completely the motion directions that have previously followed. Furthermore, it is possible that a breaking into several cells may be produced, or, in the opposite, it can be observed a joining of different thunderstorms into a bigger system. In order to identify the main features of the developing process of thunderstorms and the anomalous motions that these may follow in some cases, this contribution presents a classification of the events using daily rainfall fields, with the purpose of distinguishing quickly anomalous motion of thunderstorms. The methodology implemented allows classifying the daily rainfall fields in three categories by applying some thresholds related with the daily precipitation accumulated values and their extension: days with "no rain", days with "potentially convective" rain and days with "non-potentially convective" rain. Finally, for those "potentially convective" daily rainfall charts, it also allows a geometrical identification and classification of all the convective structures into "ellipse" and "non-ellipse", obtaining then the structures with "normal" or "anomalous" motion pattern, respectively. The work is focused on the period 2008-2015, and presents some characteristics of the rainfall behaviour in terms of the seasonal distribution of convective rainfall or the geographic variability. It shows that convective structures are mainly found during late spring and summer, even though they can be recorded in any time of the year. Consequently, the maximum number of convective structures with anomalous motion is recorded between July and November. Furthermore, the contribution shows the role of the orography of Catalonia in the

  1. Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: Dynamical systems approach

    Yalcin, G. Cigdem; Rabassa, Pau; Beck, Christian

    2015-01-01

    We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss possible reasons for the emergence of this power law. On the contrary, the waiting time distribution between rainy days is observed to follow a near-exponential distribution. A careful investigation shows that a q-exponential with q=1.05 yields actually the...

  2. Some considerations of periodicity and persistence in daily rainfalls

    Kottegoda, N. T.; Natale, L.; Raiteri, E.

    2004-08-01

    In formulating mathematical models for the evaluation of variability in daily rainfalls, periodicity and persistence are two of the main characteristics to consider. We review periodogram analysis ranging from the Whittaker-Robinson technique to the Schuster periodogram and recent practices such as the modified Daniell window and the autoregressive and entropy spectra. We also reconsider models of the Markovian type of dependence and methods of analysis. The objective is to demonstrate useful practical procedures with the aid of relevant graphical displays. Results from periodograms not based on sinusoids are shown to complement the findings from more conventional methods. Periodicity in rainfall is less effective than in other related phenomena but has wide climatic variations. Preference for the familiar two-state first-order Markov model is reconfirmed with a two-harmonic representation of the seasonal variation in the Markov parameters. Rainfall data from Italy and Sri Lanka are used with observations of temperatures and flow for comparison.

  3. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

    D. Jakob

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer.

    The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1 by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2. Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs.

    Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at

  4. Characterization and disaggregation of daily rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

    Engida, A. N.; Esteves, Michel

    2011-01-01

    In Ethiopia, available rainfall records are mainly limited to daily time steps. Though rainfall data at shorter time steps are important for various purposes like modeling of erosion processes and flood hydro-graphs, they are hardly available in Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of daily rains at two stations in the region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) and (ii) to calibrate and evaluate a daily rainfall disaggregation model. The analys...

  5. Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

    Tramblay, Yves; Neppel, L.; Carreau, Julie; Sanchez-Gomez, E.

    2012-01-01

    Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks-over-threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 19582008, to be included as a covariate in the m...

  6. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For va...

  7. Understanding the Rainfall Daily Climatology of Northwestern Mexico

    Brito-Castillo, L.

    2007-05-01

    Maximum monthly precipitation (MMP) over northwestern Mexico is not concurrent because it occurs in different months from July through September. However, instead of occurring progressively from one month to the next as latitude increases, as it might be logic since rains move progressively from south to north as monsoon develops, MMP occurs in July in latitudes of Jalisco state, then MMP shifts to August more to the north in latitudes of Nayarit state and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, then it occurs in July in higher latitudes through the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), and finally MMP shifts to September to the west in the California Peninsula. The maximum monthly streamflow occurs in a similar pattern as MMP does but one month later. When daily rainfall climatology of the region is calculated, i.e. the long-term mean per day from stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004, it is possible to understand why the behavior of MMP occurs in a July-August-July pattern from south to north. Preliminary results indicate that at latitudes of Nayarit state normal frequent storms with abundant rains develop at the end of July and through the August. These rains sum to the rains that move from the south to the north, as monsoon develops increasing the volume of precipitations at those latitudes in August. To the east crossing the SMO through northwestern Zacatecas state maximum volume of precipitations also is observed in August. However, in higher latitudes it is not observed any increment of rains in August and consequently maximum volume of precipitations occurs in July. To understand the dynamics of the rains at the latitudes of Nayarit state it results necessary to investigate the source of these local rains and explain why the increase of precipitations in August is limited at those latitudes.

  8. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  9. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.

    2012-01-01

    There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and...

  10. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Xihua Yang; Xiaojin Xie; Li Liu; Fei Ji; Lin Wang

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging) were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting...

  11. Statistical framework to simulate daily rainfall series conditional on upper-air predictor variables

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    We propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall time series at daily resolution, conditional on predictor variables indicative of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. We do so by first introducing a dimensionless measure to assess the relative influence of upper-air variables at different pressure levels on ground-level rainfall statistics, and then simulating rainfall occurrence and amount by proper conditioning on the selected atmospheric predictors. The proposed scheme for conditional rainfall simulation operates at a daily time step (avoiding discrete approaches for identification of weather states), can incorporate any possible number and combination of predictor variables, while it is capable of reproducing rainfall seasonality directly from the variation of upper-air variables, without any type of seasonal analysis or modeling. The suggested downscaling approach is tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece. The model is found to accurately reproduce several statistics of actual rainfall time series, at both annual and seasonal levels, including wet day fractions, the alternation of wet and dry intervals, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of rainfall intensities in wet days, short-range dependencies present in historical rainfall records, the distribution of yearly rainfall maxima, dependencies of rainfall statistics on the observation scale, and long-term climatic features present in historical rainfall records. The suggested approach is expected to serve as a useful tool for stochastic rainfall simulation conditional on climate model outputs at a regional level, where climate change impacts and risks are assessed.

  12. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  13. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    崔茂常; 朱海

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  14. Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

    Yu, Zu-Guo; Leung, Yee; Chen, Yongqin David; Qiang ZHANG; Van Anh, Vo; Zhou, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empiri...

  15. Analysis of daily rainfall processes in lower extremadura (Spain) and homogenization of the data

    Garcia, J. A.; Marroquin, A.; Garrido, J.; Mateos, V. L.

    1995-03-01

    In this paper we analyze, from the point of view of stochastic processes, daily rainfall data recorded at the Badajoz Observatory (Southwestern Spain) since the beginning of the century. We attempt to identify any periodicities or trends in the daily rainfall occurrences and their dependence structure, and attempt to select the appropriate point stochastic model for the daily rainfall series. Standard regression analysis, graphical methods and the Cramer statistic show a rise in the number of cases of light rain (between 0.1 and 5 mm/d) and a decline in the number of cases of moderate to heavy rain (> 5 mm/d) in the daily rainfall at least at the 5% significance level. That the homogenization process was satisfactory is shown by the mean interarrival time of the homogenized series and the test of the rate of homogenized daily rainfall occurrences. Our analysis also shows that the behavior of the spectra of the homogenized daily rainfall counts is completely different from that of a Poisson process, so that the hypothesis of a non-homogeneous Poisson process is rejected.

  16. Homogeneous clusters over India using probability density function of daily rainfall

    Kulkarni, Ashwini

    2016-04-01

    The Indian landmass has been divided into homogeneous clusters by applying the cluster analysis to the probability density function of a century-long time series of daily summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall at 357 grids over India, each of approximately 100 km × 100 km. The analysis gives five clusters over Indian landmass; only cluster 5 happened to be the contiguous region and all other clusters are dispersed away which confirms the erratic behavior of daily rainfall over India. The area averaged seasonal rainfall over cluster 5 has a very strong relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall; also, the rainfall variability over this region is modulated by the most important mode of climate system, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This cluster could be considered as the representative of the entire Indian landmass to examine monsoon variability. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test supports that the cumulative distribution functions of daily rainfall over cluster 5 and India as a whole do not differ significantly. The clustering algorithm is also applied to two time epochs 1901-1975 and 1976-2010 to examine the possible changes in clusters in a recent warming period. The clusters are drastically different in two time periods. They are more dispersed in recent period implying the more erroneous distribution of daily rainfall in recent period.

  17. Interpolating daily spatial rainfall fields - Kriging or Copulas or something else?

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2012-12-01

    Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall presents a challenge due to skewed probability distributions with long tails and a large number of zeros representing of rainfall non-occurrence. Traditionally combinations of indicator kriging and ordinary kriging have been proposed for interpolation of rainfall data, however, recently copulas have been shown to be advantageous in dealing with skewed distributions. But how much better are copulas at estimating rainfall at unknown locations? Kriging and copula methods were extensively tested in their application to rainfall interpolation by testing on several years of data in Sydney, Australia. Each method was compared for the prediction of rainfall occurrence and rainfall amount with different marginal distributions and correlation structures being tested. The results showed that both kriging and copula interpolation were most sensitive to the choice of parameters describing the dependence structure with distance, this being the variogram for kriging and the correlation function for copula, with this being sensitive to the method chosen for parameter estimation. Hence, the question was posed, can we improve the variogram estimate? The assumption of stationarity for the variogram and correlation function was relaxed. It was found that prediction of spatially interpolated rainfall could be improved, but at a computational cost. The presentation discusses the new alternative that was developed using 10 years of daily rainfall data at over 100 gauged locations in Sydney, the results conclusively showing the advantage of the proposed approach in a cross-validation setting.

  18. Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

    Yu, Zu-Guo; Chen, Yongqin David; Zhang, Qiang; Anh, Vo; Zhou, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function $K(q)$ of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal mulitifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter $H$ from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent $h(2)$ from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is a...

  19. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A

    2008-12-01

    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers. PMID:19076421

  20. Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model

    J. M. Schuurmans; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. This model is currently in use with the district water board and is considered to represent reality. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as well as on its effect on the general hydrological behaviour of the catchment. The study is perf...

  1. Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model

    J. M. Schuurmans; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. This model is currently in use with the district water board and is considered to represent reality. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as well as on its effect on the general hydrological behaviour of the catchme...

  2. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  3. EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reanalyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3° longitude ×1° latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground observation at all in future study.

  4. Prediction of daily rainfall by a hybrid wavelet-season-neuro technique

    Altunkaynak, Abdusselam; Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa

    2015-10-01

    Accurate daily rainfall prediction is required for accurate streamflow prediction, flooding risk analysis, constructing a reliable flood control and early warning system. However, because of its nonlinearity, prediction of daily rainfall with high accuracy and long prediction lead time is difficult. There are many daily rainfall prediction methods in the literature, but they are known to yield inaccurate predictions with short lead time, require many physical parameters and involve complicated mathematical equations with huge computational burden. Recently, artificial neural network has been used for predicting rainfall with the objective of addressing the above mentioned problems. But still, the accuracy has not been satisfactory and predictions are with short lead time. In this study, two methods called combined season-multilayer perceptron (SAS-MP) and hybrid wavelet-season-multilayer perceptron (W-SAS-MP) were developed to enhance prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time of daily rainfall up to 5 days by using data from two stations in Turkey. These two models were compared with the stand-alone multilayer perceptron and another most commonly used method called combined wavelet-multilayer perceptron (W-MP). The performances of the models were evaluated by using coefficient of determination, coefficient of efficiency and root mean squared error. The SAS-MP model was found to be better than W-MP in most cases, except lead time day 1, where W-MP performed better. Throughout all the lead times, however, the hybrid W-SAS-MP model performed best with CE values of 0.911 and 0.909, respectively, for prediction lead time of 1 day and 0.588 and 0.570, respectively, for prediction lead time of 5 days at Stations 17836 and 17837, respectively, at the model testing (validation) phase. Therefore, W-SAS-MP can be an appropriate tool for enhancing daily rainfall prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time.

  5. Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications

    I. Portoghese

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge.

    In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model (RCM was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re-scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time-series from a dense rain-gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias-correction at the RCM-cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists.

  6. Trends in characteristics of sub-daily heavy precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the Czech Republic

    Hanel, M.; Pavlásková, A.; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 4 (2016), s. 1833-1845. ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * rainfall events * erosivity * extremes * climate variability * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.157, year: 2014 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4463/abstract

  7. Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

    Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

    2009-06-01

    The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.

  8. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2015-11-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  9. Spatial and temporal variability of the daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), 1950-2000

    Lana, X.; Martínez, M. D.; Serra, C.; Burgueño, A.

    2004-04-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns in the daily rainfall regime of Catalonia (northeastern Spain) recorded for the 1950-2000 period are analysed from several points of view, including the irregularity of the time series in terms of entropy, the Mann-Kendall test for time trends, a principal component analysis (PCA), an average linkage (AL) clustering algorithm and, finally, a power spectrum analysis, which includes a comparison of white-noise and Markovian red-noise hypotheses. The analyses are based on three monthly variables derived from the amounts recorded on a daily basis: the average daily rainfall and the standard deviation of the daily rainfall for each month, together with the corresponding coefficient of variation. The joint spatial-temporal variability is manifested by the irregularity index, which is characterized by relevant values in all cases and gradients from the north (Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees mountain ranges) to the south (Ebro Valley) and to the Mediterranean coast. The interpretation of the factor scores derived from the PCA and of the clusters obtained from the AL algorithm also describes the complex spatial distribution of the daily rainfall regime, given that the effects of atmospheric circulation patterns on rainfall regimes are conditioned by the complex orography of Catalonia and its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. The factor loadings associated with the PCA also suggest a distinction between hot, cold and mild seasons. Finally, it is worth noting that monthly series are usually accompanied by white background noise and, in a few cases, signs of Markovian behaviour and some significant periodicities, which are generally of less than 10 months and which change from one cluster to another.

  10. Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2013-04-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, daily precipitation is the least well reproduced hydrologic variable by both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Limited Area Models (LAMs). To that extent, several statistical procedures (usually referred to as downscaling schemes) have been suggested to generate synthetic rainfall time series conditional on predictor variables that are descriptive of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. In addition to be more accurately simulated by GCMs and LAMs, large-scale atmospheric predictors are important indicators of the local weather. Currently used downscaling methods simulate rainfall series using either stable statistical relationships (usually referred to as transfer functions) between certain characteristics of the rainfall process and mesoscale atmospheric predictor variables, or simple stochastic schemes (e.g. properly transformed autoregressive models) with parameters that depend on the large-scale atmospheric conditions. The latter are determined by classifying large-scale circulation patterns into broad categories of weather states, using empirical or theoretically based classification schemes, and modeled by resampling from those categories; a process usually referred to as weather generation. In this work we propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall timeseries at a daily level, conditional on large scale atmospheric predictors. The latter include the mean sea level pressure (MSLP), the magnitude and direction of upper level geostrophic winds, and the 500 hPa geopotential height, relative vorticity and divergence. The suggested framework operates in continuous time, avoiding the use of transfer functions, and weather classification schemes. The suggested downscaling approach is validated using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (see http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall data from Western Greece, for the 14-year period from 01 October

  11. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  12. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  13. Evaluation of Annual Rainfall Erosivity Index Based on Daily, Monthly, and Annual Precipitation Data of Rainfall Station Network in Southern Taiwan

    Ming-Hsi Lee; Huan-Hsuan Lin

    2015-01-01

    The erosivity factor in the universal soil loss equation (USLE) provides an effective means of evaluating the erosivity power of rainfall. The present study proposes three regression models for estimating the erosivity factor based on daily, monthly, and annual precipitation data of rainfall station network, respectively. The validity of the proposed models is investigated using a dataset consisting of 16,560 storm events monitored by 55 rainfall stations in southern Taiwan. The results show ...

  14. Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

    2015-07-01

    Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

  15. Comparison of daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall to investigate stream aquifer connectivity

    Brodie, Ross S.; Hostetler, Stephen; Slatter, Emily

    2008-01-01

    SummaryA frequency analysis approach was used to investigate the hydraulic connectivity between streams and aquifers, by comparing daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall. Three Australian streams were examined - a dominantly gaining stream (Wilsons River, NSW), a dominantly gaining stream modified by significant water extraction (Ovens River, Victoria) and a dominantly losing stream (Mooki River, NSW). For the gaining stream examples, a lag is observed between the seasonal peak in the low-flow percentile curves and the seasonal peak in the daily rainfall percentile curve. Cross-correlation was used to calculate the time-shift that provides the best fit between the streamflow and rainfall percentile curves. There is a good correlation ( r2 > 0.8) between the reference rainfall percentile curve and the shifted streamflow percentile curves for gaining streams. The lags evident between the rainfall and streamflow percentile curves represent the processes of first replenishing catchment storages (such as soil moisture and groundwater) and subsequent release to the stream. This is largely a function of catchment hydrogeology as well as climate, notably the magnitude and regularity of rainfall events. Catchment size is not a controlling factor. Analysis of these lags provides insights into the dynamics of groundwater recharge, storage and release. Changes in the lag times over the flow percentiles can reflect changes in the dominant catchment storage contributing to streamflow. For the Wilsons River, the contribution from a groundwater system with longer flow paths increases at lower flow percentiles. This can be critical when protecting minimum streamflows, as near-stream groundwater flow may not be the only determining factor. The impact of water extraction can be recognised in this analysis. For the Ovens River, streamflow deficits relative to the rainfall percentile curve correspond to the summer period of high irrigation demand. Such a deficit was also observed

  16. Regional Observed Trends in Daily Rainfall Indices of Extremes over the Indochina Peninsula from 1960 to 2007

    Muhammad Yazid; Usa Humphries

    2015-01-01

    This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Indochina Peninsula from 1960 to 2007. The trends were obtained from high-resolution gridded daily rainfall data compiled by APHRODITE with coordinates of 4°N–25°N and 90E°–112°E. The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI, which is a joint group of WMO CCl, CLIVAR and JCOMM. The indices are based on the number of heavy rainfall days (≥10 mm), number of very heavy rainfall da...

  17. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  18. Analysis of the Statistical Behaviour of Daily Maximum and Monthly Rainfall Data at New Delhi During Monsoon Period

    2002-01-01

    A statistical analysis of monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall data at New Delhi during the monsoon (June-September) period 1940-1980 is presented. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the four months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV), Relative Variability (RV) and Percentage Interannual Variability (PIV) have been studied and found to be at variance. However, their corresponding ratios between mean daily maximum and mean monthly rainfall are significantly lower.

  19. Estimation of daily rainfall over Italy by merging multiple microwave-based satellite products

    Panegrossi, Giulia; Casella, Daniele; Cinzia Marra, Anna; Sano, Paolo; Dietrich, Stefano; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation retrieval from space has seen great advances thanks to the improving quality of PMW measurements, the refinement of precipitation retrieval techniques, and the increasing number of microwave radiometers on board LEO satellites orbiting around the Earth. With the recent advent of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission the constellation of cross-track and conically scanning microwave radiometers with precipitation-sensing capabilities currently ensures 1- to 3-hourly coverage at mid/high latitudes. Traditionally passive microwave (PMW) retrieval algorithms are based on the principle that surface precipitation can be estimated from the multichannel brightness temperature (TB) measurements because these are affected (in different ways depending on channel frequency, viewing geometry, spatial resolution, and surface background conditions) by the microphysical properties and 3-D distribution of liquid and frozen hydrometeors within the precipitating cloud, and, therefore, can be related to surface precipitation. These approaches can be categorized as top-down approaches and they provide instantaneous precipitation rate estimate at the surface at the time of the satellite observation. Recently a new perspective for surface precipitation estimate has been proposed, the bottom-up approach, based on the principle that the soil moisture can be considered as a "natural raingauge" and can be employed for "measuring" rainfall. The algorithm, called SM2RAIN, allows estimating rainfall directly from soil moisture retrieved from spaceborne sensors (i.e., ASCAT). Several recent studies have demonstrated that the approach is very effective for precipitation estimation from the daily to 5-daily scale, even though not applicable in regions where soil moisture retrieval is not feasible (i.e., highly vegetated areas, frozen surfaces, oceans). This study shows that the precipitation estimates obtained by PMW observations using the two approaches (top-down and

  20. Studies on stable isotopic composition of daily rainfall from Kozhikode, Kerala, India.

    Unnikrishnan Warrier, C; Praveen Babu, M; Sudheesh, M; Deshpande, Rajendrakumar D

    2016-06-01

    The stable isotopic compositions of all major daily rain fall samples (n = 113) collected from Kozhikode station in Kerala, India, for the year 2010 representing the pre-monsoon, southwest and northeast monsoon seasons are examined. The isotopic variations δ(18)O, δ(2)H and d-excess in daily rainfall ranged from δ(18)O: -4.4 to 2 ‰, δ(2)H: -25.3 to 13.8 ‰, and d-excess: -2.4 to 15.3 ‰; δ(18)O: -9.7 to -0.6 ‰, δ(2)H: -61.7 to 5.3 ‰, and d-excess 5.8 to 17.4 ‰; δ(18)O -11.3 to -1.4 ‰, δ(2)H: -75.3 to 0.9 ‰, and d-excess: 8.8 to 21.3 ‰ during the pre-, southwest and northeast monsoon periods, respectively. Thus, daily rainfall events during two monsoon periods had a distinct range of isotopic variations. The daily rain events within the two monsoon seasons also exhibited periodic variations. The isotopic composition of rain events during pre-monsoon and a few low-intensity events during the southwest monsoon period had imprints of secondary evaporation. This study analysing the stable isotopic characteristics of individual rain events in southern India, which is influenced by dual monsoon rainfall, will aid in a better understanding of its mechanism. PMID:26617222

  1. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  2. CEH-GEAR: 1 km resolution daily and monthly areal rainfall estimates for the UK for hydrological and other applications

    Keller, V. D. J.; Tanguy, M.; Prosdocimi, I.; Terry, J.A.; Hitt, O.; Cole, S J; Fry, M; Morris, D. G.; Dixon, H

    2015-01-01

    The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology – Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) data set was developed to provide reliable 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI) (together with approximately 3500 km2 of catchment in the Republic of Ireland) from 1890 onwards. The data set was primarily required to support hydrological modelling. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office collated historical ...

  3. CEH-GEAR: 1 km resolution daily and monthly areal rainfall estimates for the UK for hydrological use

    V. D. J. Keller; Tanguy, M.; Prosdocimi, I.; Terry, J. A.; O. Hitt; S. J. Cole; Fry, M; Morris, D. G.; H. Dixon

    2015-01-01

    The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology – Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset was developed to provide reliable 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI) (together with approximately 3500 km2 of catchment in the Republic of Ireland) from 1890 onwards. The dataset was primarily required to support hydrological modelling. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office c...

  4. Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

    Tyler, Jonathan J.; Jones, Matthew; Arrowsmith, Carol; Allott, Tim; Leng, Melanie J.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles (n = 10-70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer.

  5. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Brijesh Kumar; Kanhu Charan Patra; Venkat Lakshmi

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought)for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, dailyprecipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validatedagainst daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPHcan detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall.The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas,TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimatesthe amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capturethe high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well asthe plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfallproducts with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrenceof high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies thatTRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for thetopography.

  6. Spatial patterns and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the southwest and northeast monsoons: 1975-2004

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Deni, S. M.; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2010-12-01

    This study focuses on describing the patterns and trends of five selected rainfall indices in Peninsular Malaysia, based on daily rainfall data from 1975 to 2004. Five rainfall indices based on two main seasons, the northeast and southwest monsoons, were analyzed: total rainfall, frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, frequency of wet days (extreme frequency), and rainfall intensity (extreme intensity) exceeding the long-term mean 95th percentile. The findings indicated that the eastern areas of the Peninsula were strongly influenced by the northeast monsoon, while the southwest monsoon had the greatest impact on the western part of the Peninsula, particularly the northwest. In studying the trends of these rainfall indices, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used. The serial correlation and cross-correlation structure of the data were accounted for in determining the significance of the Mann-Kendall test results. It was found that there were differences in trend patterns over the Peninsula during both seasons, with a decrease in total rainfall and a significant decrease in frequency of wet days leading to a significant increase in rainfall intensity over the Peninsula, except in eastern areas, during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, a trend of significantly increasing total rainfall and an increase in frequencies of extreme rainfall events during the northeast monsoon caused a significantly increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the Peninsula to be observed. However, no significant trend was observed with respect to extreme intensity during both monsoons over the Peninsula. The findings of this study suggest that rainfall patterns in Peninsular Malaysia are very much affected by the northeast monsoon, based on the larger magnitude of changes observed in the rainfall indices.

  7. Maximum Daily Rainfall Simulation by using Artificial Neural Network (Case Study: Saravan-Iran

    Mohsen Armesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Increases in greenhouse gases over the last century have caused abnormalities in the general circulation of the atmosphere. These abnormalities lead to changes in severity of climate phenomenon’s in different parts of the globe. This study aimed to simulate the maximum daily rainfall in Saravan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN. To do this, maximum 24-h rainfall of different months was obtained from synoptic station of Saravan and data of climate indicators from 1986 to 2010 obtained from NOAA website. The effective climate indicators were identified using stepwise method. The data were normalized in the range of 0.1 to 0.9 and the data were applied with 80 to 20 combinations for training data and simulation to neural network model. The used networks were back propagation and Radial Basis with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm which created by different combinations of inputs, number of hidden layers and the number of neurons. After creation of mass models; it was found that the chosen network model, Radial Basis, has a better function. This model, with 2 hidden layers of 12 neurons, 0.9578 determination coefficients and less error, presented more acceptable performance in the prediction stage. Comparing the results of chosen ANN and regression models showed that ANN model can accurately predict the daily maximum precipitation. It was found, that the monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum monthly relative humidity, tropical pattern of the South Atlantic Index with 7 months delay and nino1+2 Index with 10 months delay play the main role in daily maximum precipitation in Saravan.

  8. CEH-GEAR: 1 km resolution daily and monthly areal rainfall estimates for the UK for hydrological use

    V. D. J. Keller

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology – Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR dataset was developed to provide reliable 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great Britain (GB and Northern Ireland (NI (together with approximately 3500 km2 of catchment in the Republic of Ireland from 1890 onwards. The dataset was primarily required to support hydrological modelling. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office collated historical weather observations for the UK which include a national database of raingauge observations. The natural neighbour interpolation methodology, including a normalisation step based on average annual rainfall, was used to generate the daily and monthly rainfall grids. To derive the monthly estimates, rainfall totals from monthly and daily (when complete month available read raingauges were used in order to obtain maximum information from the raingauge network. The daily grids were adjusted so that the monthly grids are fully consistent with the daily grids. The CEH-GEAR dataset was developed according to the guidance provided by the British Standards Institution. The CEH-GEAR dataset contains 1 km grids of daily and monthly rainfall estimates for GB and NI for the period 1890–2012. For each day and month, CEH-GEAR includes a secondary grid of distance to the nearest operational raingauge. This may be used as an indicator of the quality of the estimates. When this distance is greater than 100 km, the estimates are not calculated due to high uncertainty. CEH-GEAR is available free of charge for commercial and non-commercial use subject to licensing terms and conditions. doi:10.5285/5dc179dc-f692-49ba-9326-a6893a503f6e

  9. Changes in daily and monthly rainfall in the Middle Yellow River, China

    He, Yi; Tian, Peng; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Wang, Fei; Li, Pengfei

    2016-03-01

    Highly concentrated precipitation, where a large percentage of annual precipitation occurs over a few days, may include a high risk of flooding and severe soil erosion. Thus, areas with severe erosion such as the Loess Plateau in China are particularly vulnerable to highly concentrated precipitation events due to climate change. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns in the concentration of rainfall in the Middle Yellow River (MYR) from the last 56 years (1958-2013). We used daily and monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in the study area to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI). The southern and northern parts of the MYR were characterized by a lower CI with a decreasing trend, while the middle parts had a higher CI with an increasing trend. High PCI values occurred in the southern MYR, while lower PCIs with a more homogenous rainfall distribution were found mainly in the northern parts of the MYR. The annual PCI and CI exhibited positive trends at most stations, although only a minority of stations had significant trends (P < 0.05). At seasonal scales, CI exhibited significantly increasing trends in winter at most stations, while a few stations had significant trends in the other three seasons. These findings provide important reference information to facilitate ecological restoration and farming operations in the study region.

  10. Spatial analysis of trend in extreme daily rainfall in southern France

    Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles; Touati, Julien

    2016-04-01

    This paper makes a regional evaluation of trend in yearly maxima of daily rainfall in southern France, both at point and spatial scales on a regular grid of 8 × 8 km2. In order to filter out the high variability of rainfall maxima, the current analysis is based on a non-stationary GEV modeling in which the location parameter is allowed to vary with time. Three non-stationary models are considered for each series of maxima by constraining the location parameter to vary either linearly, linearly after a given date or linearly up to a final date. Statistical criteria are used to compare these models and select the best starting or final point of putative trends. The analysis shows that, at regional scale, the best distribution of maxima involves a linear trend starting in year 1985 and that this trend is significant in half the region, including most of the mountain ranges and part of the Rhône valley. Increases in yearly maxima are considerable since they reach up more than 60 mm/day in 20 years, which is more than 40 % of the average maximum in this area.

  11. Bayesian objective classification of extreme UK daily rainfall for flood risk applications

    M. A. Little

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we describe an objective classification scheme for extreme UK daily precipitation to be used in flood risk analysis applications. We create a simplified representation of the spatial layout of extreme events based on a new digital archive of UK rainfall. This simplification allows a Bayesian clustering algorithm to compress these representations down to eight prototypical patterns of extreme falls. These patterns are then verified against a five-class, manual, subjective typing scheme, produced independently using known meteorological mechanisms, isohyetal maps and additional descriptive text from the archive. Compared against the manual scheme, the new objective scheme can reproduce the known meteorological conditions, both in terms of spatial layout and seasonal timing, and is shown to be of hydrological relevance when matched to several notable flooding events in the past century. Furthermore, it is computationally simple and straightforward to apply in classifying future extreme rainfall events. We discuss the practical use of this new typing scheme in flood simulations and climate change applications.

  12. Minimizing uncertainty of daily rainfall interpolation over large catchments through realistic sampling of anisotropic correlogram parameters

    Gyasi-Agyei, Yeboah

    2016-04-01

    It has been established that daily rainfall gauged network density is not adequate for the level of hydrological modelling required of large catchments involving pollutant and sediment transport, such as the catchments draining the coastal regions of Queensland, Australia, to the sensitive Great Barrier Reef. This paper seeks to establish a link between the spatial structure of radar and gauge rainfall for improved interpolation of the limited gauged data over a grid or functional units of catchments in regions with or without radar records. The study area is within Mt. Stapylton weather radar station range, a 128 km square region for calibration and validation, and the Brisbane river catchment for validation only. Two time periods (2000-01-01 to 2008-12-31 and 2009-01-01 to 2015-06-30) were considered, the later period for calibration when radar records were available and both time periods for validation without regard to radar information. Anisotropic correlograms of both the gauged and radar data were developed and used to establish the linkage required for areas without radar records. The maximum daily temperature significantly influenced the distributional parameters of the linkage. While the gauged, radar and sampled correlogram parameters reproduced the mean estimates similarly using leave-one-out cross-validation of Ordinary Kriging, the gauged parameters overestimated the standard deviation (SD) which reflects uncertainty by over 91% of cases compared with the radar or the sampled parameter sets. However, the distribution of the SD generated by the radar and the sampled correlogram parameters could not be distinguished, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.52. For the validation case with the catchment, the percentage overestimation of SD by the gauged parameter sets decreased to 81.2% and 87.1% for the earlier and later time periods, respectively. It is observed that the extreme wet days' parameters and statistics were fairly widely distributed

  13. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia

    D. Jakob; D. J. Karoly; Seed, A

    2011-01-01

    Using data for a common period (1976–2005) for a set of 31 sites located in south-east Australia, variations in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limit...

  14. A multivariate regional test for trend detection in extreme rainfall: the case of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean area.

    Pujol, N.; Neppel, L.; Sabatier, R.

    2009-09-01

    A multivariate regional test for trend detection in extreme rainfall: the case of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean area. N. Pujol, L. Neppel, R. Sabatier The effect of human activity on the climate and on the earth global warming is now accepted by all the scientific community. In the context of a global warming one can ask for the consequences on the extreme events: in several regions their frequencies and/or their magnitude are expected to increase in the future. As the global warming starts in the beginning of the XXe century, can we already find some signal of any changes affecting the extreme events in the long series of observations? We try to bring some answer focusing on the extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean area. A set of 92 series of annual maxima daily rainfall has been sampled during at least 56 years. Those gauges have been gathered in seven homogeneous climatic regions with regard to extreme rainfall. A regional multivariate parametric test of trend detection has been developed, based on recent improvements in trend detection (Renard et al., 2008). The regional consistency is taken into account considering a common climatic trend for all the series of the same homogeneous region. The test consists of the following four steps: i) The marginal distribution of each extreme rainfall series has been modelled with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function and the spatial dependence between the time series of a given region has been modelled with copulas function. ii) Two models have been defined: the stationary one (M0) and the non stationary one, where the GEV position parameters are supposed to be time dependant (M1). iii) The maximization of the likelihood function with genetic algorithm has lead to the parameters estimation. iv) The likelihood ratio test has been applied to select the "best" model between M0 and M1. From a theoretical point of view, the present work underlines i) the necessity of

  15. The influence of minimum time between rain events (MTE) on the daily rainfall and EI30 erosivity index relation.

    Ayuso-Ruiz, P.; Ayuso-Muñoz, J. L.; Taguas, E. V.; García-Marín, A.

    2010-05-01

    The amount of rain registered between two consecutives dry time intervals can be defined as a downpour or rain event. The length of these dry periods is known as minimum time between events (MTE). This work analyses the influence of the MTE value on the daily rainfall and EI30 erosivity index relationship. Using a potential equation like , the relation between daily EI30 index and daily precipitation, P, was obtained for Malaga. Hourly rainfall data from 1981 to 2007 were used. Rain events of at least 10 mm were identified four each rainy day and several MTE were used (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours). Due to hourly resolution of the data, the EI60 index was then obtained by multiplying the kinetic energy and the maximum hourly rainfall. Ten minutes resolution data were also available in Malaga from 1999 to 2002. Using these records the lineal correlation between EI30 and EI60 indexes was obtained, allowing the conversion of the EI60 indexes previously obtained. The results showed that no significant differences appear when varying the MTE value. The R2 coefficient had values of 0.7192 when working with a 2 hour MTE and 0.7503 for 6 hour MTE. Thus, it can be concluded that the best relation was obtained for the last MTE, though a slightly dependency between daily rainfall and EI30 index was found.

  16. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    F. Yusof

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983 to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS-based cumulative sum (CUSUM test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2.0 (ARC2)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — As of 2012, a new gridded, daily 30 year precipitation estimation dataset centered over Africa at 0.1? spatial resolution has been developed. The Africa Rainfall...

  18. Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

    S. Beguería

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

  19. Spatially explicit seasonal forecasting using fuzzy spatiotemporal clustering of long-term daily rainfall and temperature data

    Plain, M. B.; Minasny, B.; McBratney, A.B.; Vervoort, R. W.

    2008-01-01

    A major limitation of statistical forecasts for specific weather station sites is that they are not spatial in the true sense. And while spatial predictions have been studied, their results have indicated a lack of seasonality. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are spatial, but their spatial resolution is rather coarse. Here we propose spatially explicit seasonal forecasting, based on the Fuzzy Classification of long-term (40 years) daily rainfall and temperature data to create climate members...

  20. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    the multivariate approach. Another approach follows the paradigm of the "multiple imputation" (Rubin, 1987; Rubin, 1988), which consists in using a set of "similar stations" instead than the most similar. This way, a sort of estimation range can be determined allowing the introduction of uncertainty. Finally, time series can be grouped on the basis of monthly rainfall rates defining classes of wetness (i.e.: dry, moderately rainy and rainy), in order to achieve the estimation using homogeneous data subsets. We expect that integrating the methodology with these enhancements will certainly improve its reliability. The methodology was applied to the daily rainfall time series data registered in the Candelaro River Basin (Apulia - South Italy) from 1970 to 2001. REFERENCES D.B., Rubin, 1976. Inference and Missing Data. Biometrika 63 581-592 D.B. Rubin, 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponce in Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. D.B. Rubin, 1988. An overview of multiple imputation. In Survey Research Section, pp. 79-84, American Statistical Association, 1988. J.L., Schafer, 1997. Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data, Chapman & Hall. J., Scheffer, 2002. Dealing with Missing Data. Res. Lett. Inf. Math. Sci. 3, 153-160. Available online at http://www.massey.ac.nz/~wwiims/research/letters/ H. Theil, 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. Indicationes Mathematicae, 12, pp.85-91.

  1. Climatic and oceanic associations with daily rainfall extremes over southern Africa

    Williams, Charles Jonathan Roger; Kniveton, Dominic; Layberry, Russell

    2007-01-01

    Changes in climate variability and, in particular, changes in extreme climate events are likely to be of far more significance for environmentally vulnerable regions than changes in the mean state. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) play an important role in modulating rainfall variability. Consequently, SSTs can be prescribed in global and regional climate modelling in order to study the physical mechanisms behind rainfall and its extremes. Using a satellite-based ...

  2. ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

    G. M. J. HASAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  3. Threshold detection for the generalized Pareto distribution: Review of representative methods and application to the NOAA NCDC daily rainfall database

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Puliga, Michelangelo; Deidda, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    In extreme excess modeling, one fits a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches, such as nonparametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and nonextreme regions of the data, graphical methods where one studies the dependence of GP-related metrics on the threshold level u, and Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GP distribution model is applicable. Here we review representative methods for GP threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to 1714 overcentennial daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC database. We find that nonparametric methods are generally not reliable, while methods that are based on GP asymptotic properties lead to unrealistically high threshold and shape parameter estimates. The latter is justified by theoretical arguments, and it is especially the case in rainfall applications, where the shape parameter of the GP distribution is low; i.e., on the order of 0.1-0.2. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on preasymptotic properties of the GP distribution. For daily rainfall, we find that GP threshold estimates range between 2 and 12 mm/d with a mean value of 6.5 mm/d, while the existence of quantization in the empirical records, as well as variations in their size, constitute the two most important factors that may significantly affect the accuracy of the obtained results.

  4. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    S. Halder; Saha, S K; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Chase, T N; Goswami, B. N.

    2015-01-01

    Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part ...

  5. Modelling wet and dry spells for daily rainfall data series: an application to irrigation management in North-West Italy

    Ferraris, Stefano; Agnese, Carmelo; Baiamonte, Giorgio; Cat Berro, Daniele; Mercalli, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall time variability is relevant for agricultural production. The daily time scale is often used in modelling crop and soil water balance. In this work a novel statistical analysis of wet and dry spells is presented, together with an application in an Italian area characterised by a relevant climate spatial variability, due to the presence of both high mountains (e.g.: Mont Blanc) and of the Mediterranean Sea. Statistical analysis of the sequences of rainy days, wet spells (WS), and that of no-rainy days, dry spells (DS), could be carried out separately (as widely applied in the past) or jointly, by introducing the inter-arrival time (IT), representing the time elapsed between two subsequent rainy days. Investigating on daily rainfall data series recorded in Sicily, Agnese et al. (2014) found that IT statistics can be described by the 3-parameter Lerch distribution; in turn, WS and DS distributions can be easily derived from IT distribution. Alternatively, the knowledge of both WS and DS distributions allow deriving IT distribution; in this case, WScan be described by the well-accepted geometric distribution, whereas the 2-parameter polylogarithm distribution can be used for DS, as recently suggested (Agnese et al., 2012) in place of the previously used 1-parameter logarithmic distribution (Chatfield, 1966). In this work, by using some daily rainfall data series recorded in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Areas, the equivalence between the above-mentioned approaches is showed. Furthermore, some interesting relationships between respective parameters are also illustrated. A simple soil water model is then used, using this rainfall statistical model, in order to evaluate the irrigation efficiency as a consequence of variations in the timing of surface irrigation, following the approach described in the paper of Canone et al. (2015). Agnese C., Baiamonte G., Cammalleri C., Cat Berro D., Ferraris S., Mercalli L. (2012). "Statistical analysis of inter-arrival times of

  6. 30 Years,Open Wisely

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ Over the 30 years,since the Reform and Opening-up, to the outside world, Chinese foreign trade has inreased from 20.6 billion USD in 1978 to 2.17 trilliion USD in 2007,up by 105 times, with an average annual growth of 17.4%.

  7. Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: a case study of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    S. Ly

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (krigings are widely used in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. However, the majority of existing geostatistical algorithms are available only for single-moment data. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually uses only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. In this study, we used daily rainfall data from 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, Cressie's Approximate Weighted Least Squares method was used to fit seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. Seven selected raingages were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to many degenerated-raingage cases. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW algorithms outperformed considerably interpolation with the Thiessen polygon that is commonly used in various hydrological models. Kriging with an External Drift (KED and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK presented the highest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the geostatistical and IDW methods. Ordinary Kriging (ORK and IDW were considered to be the best methods, as they provided smallest RMSE value for nearly all cases.

  8. Trends in characteristics of sub-daily heavy precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the Czech Republic

    Hanel, M.; Pavlásková, A.; Kyselý, Jan

    -, - (2016). ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * fainfall events * erosivity * extremes * climate variability * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.157, year: 2014

  9. Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

    Ching-Pin Tung; Wan-Yu Lien; and Wei-Ting Liao

    2013-01-01

    The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly tim...

  10. A comparative analysis of TRMM-rain gauge data merging techniques at the daily time scale for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling applications

    Nerini, Daniele; Zulkafli, Zed; Wang, Lipen; Onof, Christian; Buytaert, Wouter; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2015-01-01

    This study compares two nonparametric rainfall data merging methods—the mean bias correction and double-kernel smoothing—with two geostatistical methods—kriging with external drift and Bayesian combination—for optimizing the hydrometeorological performance of a satellite-based precipitation product over a mesoscale tropical Andean watershed in Peru. The analysis is conducted using 11 years of daily time series from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation An...

  11. A comparative analysis of TRMM-rain gauge data merging techniques at the daily time scale for distributed rainfall-runoff modeling applications

    Nerini, D.; Zulkafli, Z.; Wang, L. P.; Onof, C.; Buytaert, W.; Lavado-Casimiro, W.; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2015-01-01

    This study compares two nonparametric rainfall data merging methodsthe mean bias correction and double-kernel smoothingwith two geostatistical methodskriging with external drift and Bayesian combinationfor optimizing the hydrometeorological performance of a satellite-based precipitation product over a mesoscale tropical Andean watershed in Peru. The analysis is conducted using 11 years of daily time series from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analys...

  12. Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of observed and projected daily rainfall time series

    Lisniak, D.; J Franke; Bernhofer, C.

    2013-01-01

    The use of multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) for temporal rainfall disaggregation has been extensively studied in the past. MRCs are appealing for rainfall disaggregation due to their formal simplicity and the possibility to extract the model parameters directly from observed high resolution rainfall data. These parameters, however, represent the rainfall characteristics of the observation period. Since rainfall characteristics of different time slices are changing due to climate variabil...

  13. Detection and attribution of non-stationarity in intensity and frequency of daily and 4-h extreme rainfall of Hyderabad, India

    Agilan, V.; Umamahesh, N. V.

    2015-11-01

    The high intensity rainfall has a significant contribution in urban area flooding and understanding this high intensity rainfall over urban areas may help us to reduce the damage caused by urban floods. In this study, the changes in Hyderabad city daily and sub-daily (4-h) extreme rainfall are analyzed using various climate change detection indices. Our analysis indicates that there is increasing trend in intensity and frequency of Hyderabad city daily extreme rainfall. In addition, increasing trend in intensity and frequency of monsoon months' (June-August) 1 a.m. to 4 a.m., 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. to 12 a.m. and non-monsoon months' 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. extreme rainfall is also observed. Based on recent theoretical development in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the changes in extreme rainfall of Hyderabad city are further attributed through modelling the non-stationarity (trend) present in the extreme rainfall intensity and frequency. The extreme rainfall intensity is modelled with peaks-over-threshold (POT) based Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and frequency is modelled using inhomogeneous Poisson distribution. The trend is incorporated as covariate in the scale parameter (σ) of the GPD and the rate parameter (λ) of the Poisson distribution. In this study, four physical processes, i.e. Urbanization, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, local temperature changes, and global warming are used as covariates. Further, the combinations of these covariates are also considered for modelling the non-stationarity. Based on covariates and their combinations, fifteen non-stationary models and one stationary model are constructed and the best model is chosen based on the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) value. The covariate(s) in the best chosen non-stationary statistical model is/are attributed as the most significant physical process/processes which causes non-stationarity in the series. The study results indicate that the non-stationarity in

  14. Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    S. Ly

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and

  15. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. PMID:25889540

  16. Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows) for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation

    Littlewood, I.G.

    2002-01-01

    An established rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology employing a six-parameter unit hydrograph-based rainfall-runoff model structure is developed further to give an improved model-fit to daily flows for the River Teifi at Glan Teifi. It is shown that a previous model of this type for the Teifi, which (a) accounted for 85% of the variance in observed streamflow, (b) incorporated a pure time delay of one day and (c) was calibrated using a trade-off between two model-fit statistics (as recom...

  17. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  18. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951-2005 using a regional climate model

    Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Chase, Thomas N.; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra

    2016-05-01

    Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1-1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1-1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over

  19. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  20. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  1. Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901-2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall data set

    Pai, D. S.; Sridhar, Latha; Badwaik, M. R.; Rajeevan, M.

    2015-08-01

    In this study, analysis of the long term climatology, variability and trends in the daily rainfall events of ≥5 mm [or daily rainfall (DR) events] during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) over four regions of India; south central India (SCI), north central India (NCI), northeast India (NEI) and west coast (WC) have been presented. For this purpose, a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set covering 110 years (1901-2010) over the Indian main land has been used. The association of monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) with the DR events of various intensities has also been examined. Major portion of the rainfall over these regions during the season was received in the form of medium rainfall (≥5-100 mm) or moderate rainfall (MR) events. The mean seasonal cycle of the daily frequency of heavy rainfall (HR) (≥100-150 mm) or HR events and very heavy rainfall (VHR) (≥150 mm) or VHR events over each of the four regions showed peak at different parts of the season. The peak in the mean daily HR and VHR events occurred during middle of July to middle of August over SCI, during late part of June to early part of July over NCI, during middle of June to early July over NEI, and during late June to middle July over WC. Significant long term trends in the frequency and intensity of the DR events were observed in all the four geographical regions. Whereas the intensity of the DR events over all the four regions showed significant positive trends during the second half and the total period, the signs and magnitude of the long term trends in the frequency of the various categories of DR events during the total period and its two halves differed from the region to the region. The trend analysis revealed increased disaster potential for instant flooding over SCI and NCI during the recent years due to significant increasing trends in the frequency (areal coverage) and intensity of the HR and VHR events during the recent half of

  2. An alternative approach to characterize time series data: Case study on Malaysian rainfall data

    This paper focuses on the characterization of time series rainfall data to understand the behavior in the Malaysian rainfall data. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods is also conducted. The rainfall data is rounded. A bar with a width of 12 pixels is drawn for each day in the data. The length of the bars drawn is equal to the corresponding rainfall value. Each bar is separated by a space of 2 pixels. Bars for data from different year are stored in different rows. Morphological opening is performed on the barcode image obtained, using line kernels of increasing length. Connected component-labeling algorithm is implemented on the resulting images to identify the individual bar codes and to compute the number of bars remaining after the opening process. A daily rainfall record for the duration of 30 years, obtained from the Melaka Meteorological Station, is analyzed. The results provide characterization of behavior in daily rainfall data

  3. An alternative approach to characterize time series data: Case study on Malaysian rainfall data

    Radhakrishnan, P. [Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)] e-mail: radha.krishnan@mmu.edu.my; Dinesh, S. [Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on the characterization of time series rainfall data to understand the behavior in the Malaysian rainfall data. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods is also conducted. The rainfall data is rounded. A bar with a width of 12 pixels is drawn for each day in the data. The length of the bars drawn is equal to the corresponding rainfall value. Each bar is separated by a space of 2 pixels. Bars for data from different year are stored in different rows. Morphological opening is performed on the barcode image obtained, using line kernels of increasing length. Connected component-labeling algorithm is implemented on the resulting images to identify the individual bar codes and to compute the number of bars remaining after the opening process. A daily rainfall record for the duration of 30 years, obtained from the Melaka Meteorological Station, is analyzed. The results provide characterization of behavior in daily rainfall data.

  4. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  5. Spatial and temporal estimation of the erosivity factor R based on daily rainfall data for the department of Atlántico, Colombia

    Humberto Fabián Avila Rangel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion caused by rain is the detachment and movement of soil particles caused by the impact of raindrops on the surface. Erosivity factor R is a measure of the rain erosive power used for estimating the erosion rate with the RUSLE method (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Estimating R factor requires rainfall intensity records of storms greater than 12.5 mm or greater than 6 mm but longer than 15 min. However, most of the Colombian rainfall stations have daily rainfall records with which it is not possible to estimate the intensity of each storm and, therefore, makes it difficult to estimate the R factor for a specific area. In this paper a methodology for estimating the erosivity factor R for the department of Atlántico, Colombia from daily records of 16 IDEAM stations is presented. The spatial distribution of the erosivity factor R in the department and its temporal distribution throughout the year are also shown. The results showed a minimum erosivity factor R of 6,894 MJ∙mm∙Ha-1∙Hr-1∙yr-1 and a maximum of 10,925 MJ∙mm∙Ha-1∙Hr-1∙yr-1. The average erosivity factor R for the department of Atlántico was 8,697 MJ∙mm∙Ha-1∙Hr-1∙yr-1. This methodology might be used for estimating the erosion factor R in different Colombian regions where high-resolution precipitation data is limited, but seasonal and orographic conditions should be considered for selecting the rain gages and the area of study.

  6. Adaptionism-30 years after Gould and Lewontin

    Nielsen, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    Gould and Lewontin's 30-year-old critique of adaptionism fundamentally changed the discourse of evolutionary biology. However, with the influx of new ideas and scientific traditions from genomics into evolutionary biology, the old adaptionist controversies are being recycled in a new context. The...... still difficult to construct strong arguments in favor of adaptation. However, despite the difficulties in establishing scientific arguments in favor of specific historic evolutionary events, there is still much to learn about evolution from genomic data....

  7. Technical development of industry for 30 years

    This book mentions the history for 30 years since 1979 on industrial technology, which records change of system and environment of industrial technology development, like economical and social environment, industrial technology policy, support system on technical development and enterprise institute, assignment for future and product of industrial technology by field such as electric electronic, information and communications, machine material and fiber chemistry, and the way which Korea industrial technology association walked on.

  8. Fessenheim: 30 years of nuclear fuel operation

    Fessenheim units 1 and 2 are the first two 900 MW PWR put into operation in France (1977). This article reviews 30 years of change, optimization and feedback experience from Fessenheim, concerning: -) fuel assemblies (particularly the design of some components like grids, ends and guide tubes), -) the reload fuel management (to get a higher unloading burn-up), -) the refueling machine and tools (heavy modifications to reduce the human factor), and -) work organization (work shifts and staff training). (A.C.)

  9. Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation

    I.G. Littlewood

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available An established rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology employing a six-parameter unit hydrograph-based rainfall-runoff model structure is developed further to give an improved model-fit to daily flows for the River Teifi at Glan Teifi. It is shown that a previous model of this type for the Teifi, which (a accounted for 85% of the variance in observed streamflow, (b incorporated a pure time delay of one day and (c was calibrated using a trade-off between two model-fit statistics (as recommended in the original methodology, systematically over-estimates low flows. Using that model as a starting point the combined application of a non-integer pure time delay and further adjustment of a temperature modulation parameter in the loss module, using the flow duration curve as an additional model-fit criterion, gives a much improved model-fit to low flows, while leaving the already good model-fit to higher flows essentially unchanged. The further adjustment of the temperature modulation loss module parameter in this way is much more effective at improving model-fit to low flows than the introduction of the non-integer pure time delay. The new model for the Teifi accounts for 88% of the variance in observed streamflow and performs well over the 5 percentile to 95 percentile range of flows. Issues concerning the utility and efficacy of the new model selection procedure are discussed in the context of hydrological studies, including regionalisation. Keywords: unit hydrographs, rainfall-runoff modelling, low flows, regionalisation.

  10. Probability density function (Pdf) of daily rainfall depths by means of superstatistics of hydro-climatic fluctuations for African test cities

    Topa, M. E.; De Paola, F.; Giugni, M.; Kombe, W.; Touré, H.

    2012-04-01

    The dynamic of hydro-climatic processes can fluctuate in a wide range of temporal scales. Such fluctuations are often unpredictable for ecosystems and the adaptation to these represent the great challenge for the survival and the stability of the species. An unsolved issue is how much these fluctuations of climatic variables to different temporal scales can influence the frequency and the intensity of the extreme events, and how much these events can modify the ecosystems life. It is by now widespread that an increment of the frequency and the intensity of the extreme events will represent one of the strongest characteristic of the global climatic change, with the greatest social and biotics implications (Porporato et al 2006). Recent field experiments (Gutshick and BassiriRad, 2003) and numerical analysis (Porporato et al 2004) have shown that the extreme events can generate not negligible consequences on organisms of water-limited ecosystems. Adaptation measures and species and ecosystems answers to the hydro-climatic variations, is therefore srongly interconnected to the probabilistic structure of these fluctuations. Generally the not-linear intermittent dynamic of a state variable z (a rainfall depth or the interarrival time between two storms), at short time scales (for example daily) is described by a probability density function (pdf), p (z|υ), where υ is the parameter of the distribution. If the same parameter υ varies so that the external forcing fluctuates at longer temporal scale, z reaches a new "local" equilibrium. When the temporal scale of the variation of υ is larger than the one of z, the probability distribution of z can be obtained as a overlapping of the temporary equlibria ("Superstatistic" approach), i.e.: p(z) = ∫ p(z|υ)·φ(υ)dυ (1) where p(z|υ) is the conditioned probability of z to υ, while φ(υ) is the pdf of υ (Beck, 2001; Benjamin and Cornell, 1970). The present work, carried out within FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA (CLimate Change

  11. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford's Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m3 of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford's SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m3 of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford's future solid waste management requirements

  12. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    2011-06-02

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.  Created: 6/2/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/2/2011.

  13. Generation of Daily Rainfall Scenario Based on Nonstationary Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Techniques with Multimodel Ensemble of Different GCMs

    Kim, T. J.; Kwon, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather occurrences associated with climate change are gradually increasing in frequency, causing unprecedented major weather-related disasters. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the basic tool used for modelling climate. However, the discrepancy between the spatio-temporal scale at which the models deliver output and the scales that are generally required for applied studies has led to the development of various downscaling methods. Stochastic downscaling methods have been used extensively to generate long-term weather sequences from finite observed records. A primary objective of this study is to develop a forecasting scheme which is able to make use of a multimodel ensemble of different GCMs. This study employed a Nonstationary Hidden Markov Chain Model (NHMM) as a main tool for downscaling seasonal ensemble forecasts over 3 month period, providing daily forecasts. In particular, this study uses MMEs from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) as a predictor. Our results showed that the proposed downscaling scheme can provide the skillful forecasts as inputs for hydrologic modeling, which in turn may improve water resources management. An application to the Nakdong watershed in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable information for water resources management. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPA01) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). Keywords: Climate Change, GCM, Hidden Markov Chain Model, Multi-Model Ensemble

  14. Extremity individual monitoring: 30 years of experience

    The Thermoluminescent Dosimetry Laboratory of the Departamento de Monitoracao Individual of the Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (LDT/DEMIN/IRD) is one of the first extremity individual monitoring service in Brazil. In its 30 years of activities, the laboratory has ever made a great effort to be continuously updated. Equipment and procedures have been updated and optimized in order to guarantee the quality of all measurements. Nowadays, the extremity individual monitoring service evaluates monthly around 300 occupational doses in worker's hands of several Brazilian facilities in the fields of health, industry (including power reactor) and research. It is used a dosimetric ring with LiF:Mg,Ti thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs) from Harshaw/Bicron, named TLD-100. The Service helps the effective occupational control of the Brazilian works, which handle radioactive material or has their hands more exposed than the body. (author)

  15. 30 years learning from radiological accidents

    The summary of the radiological accidents from 1957 to 1997 occurred in Mexico is showed, including the analysis in terms of practice, and consequences. The study tries to establish the radiological knowledge of the people involved in the accident, their attitude to the safety, and retrospective review to the light of 30 years after. Nevertheless, due to the technological developments made to the equipment allow the use in a safe manner, so that the accident number has diminished in a important in a important quantity respect to the reported period, combined to the increased the radiological culture learned by the operation personnel in addition of qualification and awareness in this matter, at present is little probable that the mentioned accidents repeat now days with the same radiological affectations as those happened in the past. (author)

  16. The standard model 30 years of glory

    Lefrancois, J

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e{sup +},e{sup -}), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e{sup +}e{sup -} experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  17. The standard model 30 years of glory

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e+,e-), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e+e- experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  18. Validation of a high-resolution precipitation database (CHIRPS) over Cyprus for a 30-year period

    Katsanos, Dimitrios; Retalis, Adrianos; Michaelides, Silas

    2016-03-01

    A study for a 30-year period (1981-2010) for a new precipitation database is performed over the island of Cyprus. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) is a more than 30-year quasi-global rainfall dataset, spanning 50°S-50°N (and all longitudes). Starting in 1981 to near-present, CHIRPS incorporates 0.05° resolution satellite imagery with in situ station data to create gridded rainfall time series. In this study, CHIRPS database is firstly compared to other precipitation databases over the Mediterranean basin. In the following, this study focuses over Cyprus, where a dense and reliable network of rain gauges is available. CHIRPS data are compared for the first time with in situ measurements in this area, for the aforementioned 30-year period. Monthly and annual comparisons are presented for each of the 0.05 × 0.05 degree cells overlaying the island of Cyprus. Results showed good correlation between CHIRPS values and recorded precipitation, although an overestimation of the in situ rainfall data has been noted during the last decade.

  19. Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years

    Hsu, Pang-chi; Li, Tim; Wang, Bin

    2011-04-01

    The analysis of the GPCP and CMAP datasets during the past 30 years (1979-2008) indicates that there are consistent increasing trends in both the global monsoon area (GMA) and the global monsoon total precipitation (GMP). This positive monsoon rainfall trend differs from previous studies that assumed a fixed global monsoon domain. Due to the increasing trends in both the GMA and GMP, a global monsoon intensity (GMI) index, which measures the global monsoon precipitation amount per unit area, is introduced. The GMI measures the strength of the global monsoon. Our calculations with both the GPCP and CMAP datasets show a consistent downward trend in the GMI over the past 30 years. This decreasing trend is primarily attributed to a greater percentage increase in the GMA than in the GMP. A further diagnosis reveals that the decrease of the GMI is primarily attributed to the land monsoon in the GPCP, but to the oceanic monsoon in the CMAP.

  20. Rainfall Characterization In An Arid Area

    Bazaraa, A. S.; Ahmed, Shamim

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this work is to characterize the rainfall in Doha which lies in an arid region. The rainfall data included daily rainfall depth since 1962 and the hyetographs of the individual storms since 1976. The rainfall is characterized by high variability and severe thunderstorms which are of limited geographical extent. Four probability distributions were used to fit the maximum rainfall in 24 hours and the annual rainfall depth. The extreme value distribution was found to have the be...

  1. Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity

    Biasutti, M.; Seager, R.

    2015-01-01

    Downscaled rainfall projections from 21 climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) archive are used to estimate future changes in rainfall erosivity in the continental Unites States. To estimate erosivity from rainfall in the absence of sub-hourly data, we have used both daily rainfall values and the modified Fournier index – which is based on monthly rainfall accumulation – and derived the scaling relationship between rainfall and erosivity f...

  2. A Rationale for Pollutograph Evaluation in Ungauged Areas, Using Daily Rainfall Patterns: Case Studies of the Apulian Region in Southern Italy

    Angela Gorgoglione; Andrea Gioia; Vito Iacobellis; Alberto Ferruccio Piccinni; Ezio Ranieri

    2016-01-01

    In the context of the implementation of sustainable water treatment technologies for soil pollution prevention, a methodology that try to overcome the lack of runoff quality data in Puglia (Southern Italy) is firstly tackled in this paper. It provides a tool to obtain total suspended solid (TSS) pollutographs in areas without availability of monitoring campaigns. The proposed procedure is based on the relationship between rainfall characteristics and pollutant wash-off. In particular, startin...

  3. Intensity of the extreme rainfalls in the Republic of Macedonia

    The object of this research is the analysis of intensity of rainfalls with different duration and returning period over the Republic of Macedonia. There are 8 meteorological stations in the Republic of Macedonia that have long-term (>30 years) pluviograph data. This data was completed and generated in some previous analyses. maximal daily (24 hours) values of rainfalls registered with Helmans totalizers, in Macedonia are 188 mm (g.s. Popova Sapka in 1979), and 175 mm (g.s. Demir Kapija) in 1995. Probabilities of their occurrence have been estimated testing and using difference distribution (Gumbel, Galton, Pirson, Freget, Bernoulli, Gauss). For that purpose the intensity of rainfall with different returning period (0,1 -50%) and duration (5-1440') has been processed In the follow table, theoretically estimated extreme rainfalls with 1% probability of occurrence on difference area RM are presented. After that, the intensity of the rainfalls expressed as [mm/min] and [1/s.ha] was estimated. The results have been used to draw the diagrams of intensity of rainfall for all 8 main meteorological stations in the Republic of Macedonia that have long-term pluviografic data. Based on the scatter diagrams some functions were defined. These functions in fact show correlation between rainfall intensity and their duration (i = f (t)). This paper gives two benefits. Firstly, the results are contribution to defining spatial-time defining of the extreme rainfalls in the Republic of Macedonia. Secondary, the results of this research gives us the opportunity, using the proper method, to define the probability of torrential rains in particular watersheds and to estimate real maximal water discharge with difference occurrence.(Author)

  4. A Rationale for Pollutograph Evaluation in Ungauged Areas, Using Daily Rainfall Patterns: Case Studies of the Apulian Region in Southern Italy

    Angela Gorgoglione

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of sustainable water treatment technologies for soil pollution prevention, a methodology that try to overcome the lack of runoff quality data in Puglia (Southern Italy is firstly tackled in this paper. It provides a tool to obtain total suspended solid (TSS pollutographs in areas without availability of monitoring campaigns. The proposed procedure is based on the relationship between rainfall characteristics and pollutant wash-off. In particular, starting from the evaluation of the observed regional rainfall patterns by using a rainfall generator model, the storm water management model (SWMM was applied on five case studies located in different climatic subareas. The quantity SWMM parameters were evaluated starting from the drainage network and catchments characteristics, while the quality parameters were obtained from results of a monitoring campaign conducted for quality model calibration and validation with reference to the pollutograph’s shape and the peak-time. The research yields a procedure useful to evaluate the first flush phenomenon in ungauged sites and, in particular, it provides interesting information for designing efficient and sustainable drainage systems for first flush treatment and diffuse pollution treatment.

  5. Over 30 years of successful collaboration between JINR and INFN

    A short account of the successful 30-year long collaboration between the INFN section of Turin and the JINR Laboratory of Nuclear Problems is presented. Results obtained are discussed together with future plans

  6. The 30-Year Anniversary of Pediatric Neurology Briefs

    John J Millichap; J Gordon Millichap

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 30 years, Pediatric Neurology Briefs (PNB) has been published monthly as a continuing education service designed to expedite and facilitate review of current medical literature concerning pediatric neurology.

  7. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    Yin, S.; Xie, Y.; Liu, B.; Nearing, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivi...

  8. Bayesian comparison of different rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships

    2008-01-01

    Depth-duration-frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations. An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to m...

  9. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    N. SHAHRAKI; B Bakhtiari; M. M. AHMADI

    2013-01-01

    Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was co...

  10. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  11. UNCORRECTED TETRALOGY OF FALLOT IN A 30 - YEARS OLD

    Dihingia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tetralogy of Fallot is the most common form of cyanotic congenital heart disease. Survival after the age of 12 years without corrective surgery is rare. We present the case of a 30 year - old man with uncorrected tetralogy of Fallot.

  12. "JTPE": A 30-Year Retrospective of Published Research

    Rhoades, Jesse L.; Woods, Amelia M.; Daum, David N.; Ellison, Douglas; Trendowski, Thomas N.

    2016-01-01

    This case study presents an examination of 30 years of "Journal of Teaching in Physical Education" ("JTPE") research. The purpose of this study was to provide a retrospective view of "JTPE" and its contribution to the field of physical education. In this effort the current study employed citation analysis, co-author…

  13. [Revista de Saúde Pública: 30 years of evolution].

    da Silva, L J

    1996-12-01

    Analysis of the main characteristics of the "Revista de Saúde Pública" during the 30 years of its existence. A parallel is traced with the evolution of brazilian public health. The dynamic aspect of the "Revista" is remembered as one of its main virtues. Its future in the constitution of the Mercosul regional block is discussed. PMID:9302818

  14. Historical Lassa fever reports and 30-year clinical update.

    Macher, Abe M; Wolfe, Martin S

    2006-05-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years. PMID:16704848

  15. Historical Lassa Fever Reports and 30-year Clinical Update

    Macher, Abe M.; Martin S. Wolfe

    2006-01-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years.

  16. Historical Lassa Fever Reports and 30-year Clinical Update

    Wolfe, Martin S.

    2006-01-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years. PMID:16704848

  17. Estimation of return levels against different return periods of extreme annual rainfall over Baluchistan

    Unprecedented heavy monsoon rainfall began in the last week of July 2010 in the Northern part of our country, causes floods in Baluchistan and Sindh. As the high frequency rainfall events are a significant cause of current severe flooding in Pakistan and any fluctuation in the level of such events may cause huge economic losses as well as social problem, urban structures (i.e. dams, urban drainage systems and flood). Statistical distributions are used to identify extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Baluchistan (Quetta, Sibbi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Dalbandin and Pasni) with their return periods. Analysis predicts that Gumbel Max. (GM) Distribution is the best fitted distribution for Sibbi and Lasbella while the GEV distribution is the best fitted for Quetta, Khuzdar, Dalbandin and Pasni. The analysis also suggests that different cities of Baluchistan have 30-years return period for getting more than 90 mm average daily rainfall while they have 100-years return period for receiving more than 118 mm daily rainfall. This suggests for suitable flood forecasting and improving the river structure in Baluchistan, Pakistan. (author)

  18. 1995 solid waste 30-year container volume summary

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container category. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU-TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container categories will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company's Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1995 through FY 2024. The data presented in this report establish a baseline for solid waste management both in the present and future. With knowledge of the volumes by container type, decisions on the facility handling and storage requirements can be adequately made. It is recognized that the forecast estimates will vary as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined; however, the data presented in this report still provide useful insight into Hanford's future solid waste management requirements

  19. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  20. Regional Frequency Analysis of extreme rainfall events, Tuscany (Italy)

    Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Rossi, G.

    2014-12-01

    The assessment of extreme hydrological events at sites characterized by short time series or where no data record exists has been mainly obtained by regional models. Regional frequency analysis based on the index variable procedure is implemented here to describe the annual maximum of rainfall depth of short durations in Tuscany region. The probability distribution TCEV - Two Component Extreme Value is used in the frame of the procedure for the parameters estimation based on a three levels hierarchical approach. The methodology deal with the delineation of homogeneous regions, the identification of a robust regional frequency distribution and the assessment of the scale factor, i.e. the index rainfall. The data set includes the annual maximum of daily rainfall of 351 gauge stations with at least 30 years of records, in the period 1916 - 2012, and the extreme rainfalls of short duration, 1 hour and 3, 6, 12, 24 hours. Different subdivisions hypotheses have been verified. A four regions subdivision, coincident with four subregions, which takes into account the orography, the geomorphological and climatic peculiarities of the Tuscany region, has been adopted. Particularly, for testing the regional homogeneity, the cumulate frequency distributions of the observed skewness and variation coefficients of the recorded times series, are compared with the theoretical frequency distribution obtained through a Monte Carlo technique. The related L-skewness and L-variation coefficients are also examined. The application of the Student t -test and the Wilcoxon test for the mean, as well as the χ2 was also performed. Further tests of subdivision hypotheses have been made through the application of discordancy D and heterogeneity H tests and the analysis of the observed and the theoretical TCEV model growth curves. For each region the daily rainfall growth curve has been estimated. The growth curves for the hourly duration have been estimated when the daily rainfall growth curve

  1. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    Yin, S.; Xie, Y.; Liu, B.; Nearing, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (energy-intensity values – EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models based on commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to calculate rainfa...

  2. Enzymatic biofuel cells: 30 years of critical advancements.

    Rasmussen, Michelle; Abdellaoui, Sofiene; Minteer, Shelley D

    2016-02-15

    Enzymatic biofuel cells are bioelectronic devices that utilize oxidoreductase enzymes to catalyze the conversion of chemical energy into electrical energy. This review details the advancements in the field of enzymatic biofuel cells over the last 30 years. These advancements include strategies for improving operational stability and electrochemical performance, as well as device fabrication for a variety of applications, including implantable biofuel cells and self-powered sensors. It also discusses the current scientific and engineering challenges in the field that will need to be addressed in the future for commercial viability of the technology. PMID:26163747

  3. Structural patterns in Swedish health policy: a 30-year perspective.

    Saltman, Richard B

    2015-04-01

    This perspective reviews key institutional and organizational patterns in Swedish health care over the last 30 years, probing the roots of several complicated policy questions that concern present-day Swedish decision-makers. It explores in particular the ongoing structural tension between stability, on the one hand, and the necessary levels of innovation and dynamism demanded by the current period of major clinical, technological, economic, social and supranational (EU) change. Where useful, the article compares Swedish developments with those in the other three European Nordic countries as well as other northern European health systems. Sweden's health sector evolution can provide valuable insight for other countries into the complexity involved in re-thinking tradeoffs between policies that emphasize stability as against those that encourage innovation in health sector governance and provision. PMID:25079916

  4. Epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years

    Chen Rong; Shen Keng; Wu Ming; Pan Ling-ya; Huang Hui-fang; Yang Jia-xin; Lang Jing-he

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To study the manifestation, pathohistologic type, stage of disease, treatment and outcome of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women under the age of 30 years.Methods: The 21 cases of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years between Jan, 1986 and Mar, 2002 were analyzed retrospectively.Results: The median age at the time of diagnosis was 24 years (range, 16-29 years). All carcinomas occurred after menarche. The most common symptoms were abdominal pain (50%), followed by tympanites (25%) and menstrual disorders (19%). The initial diagnosis was usually made by physical examination, ultrasonography and serum CA125. The mean maximal tumor diameter was 17.6 cm. Ten patients had Stage I disease (5 Ia, 5 Ic), five had Stage Ⅲ disease, and the other six were unknown during staging operation. There were nine mucinous tumors, six serous tumors. Most tumors were well-differentiated and classified as Grade1 in 11 cases, Grade2 in 2 cases, Grade3 in 2 cases, unknown in 6 cases. Optimal and suboptimal cytoreduction was achieved in 14 patients in primary treatment and 5 in recurrent treatment. 8 patients were treated with conservative surgery. 18 patients were treated with chemotherapy and 7 patients had experienced six or more than six courses of chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 50 months (range, 2-192 months). There were 6 deaths, 2 alive with tumor, 11 alive without the disease, 2 losing follow-up. The 3-year survival rate was 89%, and 5-year survival rate was 76%.Conclusion: Young patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma appeared to have a less aggressive form of the disease and a more favorable prognosis.

  5. Transient climate rainfall downscaling using a combined dynamic-stochastic methodology

    Burton, Aidan; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Chris G.

    2010-05-01

    variability exhibited between the RCMs. In the absence of transient RCM projections a ‘scale factor' approach was adopted to estimate climate change throughout the transient period. Future changes were assumed to occur in proportion to global annual average temperature change. Scale factors were evaluated for four 30-year time-slice integrations of the GCMs, for which global average temperatures were available. These were linearly interpolated for the intervening years. Transient change factors were then estimated in proportion to the scale factors. Applying these to the observed rainfall statistics gave a transient projection of the daily rainfall statistics for the case study location, for each RCM for a continuous period from 1997 to 2085. A new transient formulation of the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) stochastic rainfall model has been developed. This model was used for stochastic downscaling to the point scale and to model natural rainfall variability at the daily scale. A piecewise smoothly varying transient NSRP parameterization was obtained by fitting to the transient projected rainfall statistics. Transient NSRP simulations then produced continuous daily rainfall time series which exhibit climatic non-stationarity. The simulation was realized 100 times to generate an ensemble, which models natural climate variability. Repeating for each RCM in turn generates a multi-model ensemble of 1300 transient downscaled daily rainfall timeseries. The ensemble improves on RCM simulations of the present-day climate and exhibits a time varying decrease in annual and summer rainfall and a time varying increase in winter rainfall amounts. The 10-year return period daily extreme rainfall is also likely to increase over the simulated period.

  6. 30-year PMC variability modeled by WACCM (Invited)

    Marsh, D. R.; Merkel, A. W.

    2009-12-01

    It is clear from observational record that polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) exhibit long-term variability, and it is reasonable to assume that this variability is the result of changes in the background mesopause environment. Factors responsible for these changes include variations in solar irradiance over the 11-year sunspot cycle and trends in mesopause composition and temperature caused by increasing anthropogenic emissions in the troposphere. In this study we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), modified to include parameterized PMCs, to investigate this long-term variability. WACCM is driven with observed changes in the surface composition and solar spectral irradiance. Using multiple-linear regression analysis of WACCM PMC albedos, we calculate that in the northern hemisphere there was an increase of between 19% and 39% over the last 30 years, and that albedos can be reduced by up to 55% during solar maximum relative to solar minimum. Both responses increase with increasing latitude. In the southern hemisphere the solar response is similar to that in the northern hemisphere, but we find no long-term trend. Good agreement is found between WACCM and observations made by the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet instrument when PMC detection thresholds are accounted for. Finally, we examine the relative importance of composition versus temperature changes using a series of sensitivity experiments.

  7. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30th anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business

  8. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    Kaneko, K. [Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30{sup th} anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business.

  9. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    M. Oscar Kisaka; M. Mucheru-Muna; Ngetich, F. K.; J. N. Mugwe; D. Mugendi; Mairura, F.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the mod...

  10. Drought Prediction in Iran during Next 30 Years

    Khazanedari, L.; Zabol Abbasi, F.; Ghandhari, Sh.; Kouhi, M.; Malbousi, Sh.

    2009-09-01

    The effects of climate changes, especially due to increasing of greenhouse gasses, caused a lot of problems that affect different sections of society. One of the most important of these effects is the increasing of natural disasters such as flood, drought, tropical cyclones, raising sea level, dust storm, etc. Drought and flood are the most prevalent of these disasters in Iran. Because of the geographical location of Iran and the synoptic systems that affect this region, it is clear that dry is one of the characteristics of this region, and drought is one of the most important of natural disaster that affect this country. Drought affects the different sectors of society such as water resources, agriculture, industry, economy, health, etc therefore drought monitoring is necessary for planning in future. For this purpose, the climate data should be simulated for future period by using outputs of Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model. In this paper precipitation data during 2010-2039 is simulated by downscaling via LARS-WG model. Then, drought situation is estimated according to DI and SPI, by using these data in Iran. The results of this study have showed that during next 30 years, drought conditions will be increase in Iran, and it confirms climate change event in this region. In addition, the most parts of Iran will experience severe and extreme drought in 2011, 2025, 2032, 2034, 2035, 2039, and among these years 2039 will have more critical drought situation. Keywords: Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Downscaling, LARS-WG, Drought, Decile Index, Standard Precipitation Index.

  11. Decadal trends of global precipitation in the recent 30 years

    Li, Xiaofan; Zhai, Guoqing

    2015-04-01

    In this study, the decadal trends of global precipitation are calculated and compared using the CMAP, GPCP and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly precipitation data over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. The major results include the followings: (1) The decadal trend of annually and globally averaged precipitation depends on a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data. (2) The analysis of horizontal distributions of differences in temporally averaged precipitation between the second (1993-2008) and the first (1979-1993) 15 years shows that the decreasing trend in the CMAP data is associated with the reduction in precipitation over the oceans. The further analysis of difference in zonally averaged precipitation rate reveals the increased precipitation rate in both the Tropics and mid-latitudes. The reduction in precipitation over the oceans is significantly weaker in the GPCP data than in the CMAP data, which shows the flat trend in the global GPCP data. The increasing trend of global precipitation average for the reanalysis data is associated with the increase in precipitation off the equator as well as in the mid-latitudes. (3) The further analysis of precipitation statistics reveals that the decreasing trend for the CMAP data is associated with the reduction in high precipitation. The flat trend for the global GPCP data corresponds to the offset between the decrease in low precipitation and the increase in high precipitation. The increasing trend for the reanalysis data is related to the increase in high precipitation.

  12. 30 years of lymph node pathology: biomarkers and other advances.

    Ramsay, Alan D

    2013-03-01

    Over the last 30 years there has been a massive change in both the clinical and pathologic aspects of malignant lymphomas. Pathologists are now able to evaluate cellular phenotypes and lineages of tumor cells using a wide variety of biomarkers and molecular techniques. The ability to identify tumor cell phenotypes has revolutionized the classification of lymphomas, leading to an internationally agreed system based on the reliable recognition of specific clinico-pathologic entities. The World Health Organization classification combines clinical features, histomorphology, immunohistochemistry, and molecular and genetic marker data to precisely categorize lymphomas. On the clinical front the increasing use of needle core biopsies has made it easier and quicker to obtain tissue samples, and the development of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography has revolutionized the assessment of patients both at presentation and after treatment. To improve overall outcomes for lymphoma patients there have been advances in the UK organization of cancer services. Cancer networks have been established, often with network multidisciplinary team meetings, and new diagnoses of lymphoma are reviewed on a network basis by pathologists specializing in the field. National and supranational quality control systems are in place for immunohistochemistry and for molecular techniques and multicenter clinical trials provide information about the efficacy of treatment regimens. The outcome of these advances is that a patient presenting in 2012 with suspected lymphoma can expect to be biopsied rapidly, to receive an accurate pathologic diagnosis by an expert hematopathologist, which will include prognostic marker information, and to have comprehensive disease assessment and discussion by a multidisciplinary team before embarking on the most appropriate treatment for his or her clinical situation. PMID:23417072

  13. Daily Care

    ... to Know Online Tools Enhancing Daily Life Daily Plan Activities Communication Food & Eating Music & Art Personal Care Incontinence Bathing ... Tweet Email | Print Create a Daily Routine Daily Plan Activities Communication Food/Eating Get Tips on Personal Care Bathing ...

  14. Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia

    Rashid, M.M.; S. Beecham; Chowdhury, R

    2013-01-01

    Spatial and temporal variations in statistical characteristics of point rainfall are important for rainfall modelling. The main objective of this study was to investigate the statistical characteristics of point rainfall and to identify a probability distribution that can model the full spectrum of daily rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia. Daily rainfall data from 1960 to 2010 at thirteen rainfall stations were considered. Statistical moments and auto...

  15. TORUS2015: The AGN unification scheme after 30 years

    Gandhi, P.; Hoenig, S. F.

    2015-09-01

    The torus paradigm has proved to be remarkably successful at unifying the observed zoo of active galaxy (AGN) classes, despite having many manifest holes. The field is still data-driven with novel observational results at multiple wavelengths emerging rapidly. We are only now beginning to map out the structure of dusty gas feeding and obscuring AGN, and to model its evolution in galaxy growth. But these have also brought out several apparently contradictory results which must hold the key to future progress. As we celebrate 30 years of the paradigm, this is the perfect time to draw together our current knowledge and reassess the state of the field. This will be an international workshop at the University of Southampton, UK, with the objective of laying out the major challenges to the field and paving future research directions. Our hope is to facilitate plenty of informal discussions between multiwavelength observers and theorists, addressing some key issues: * What is the main driver in the unification scheme? What are the roles of orientation, mass accretion rate and feedback? * What is the nature and structure of gas and dust in the torus? Do we have a self-consistent picture across multiple wavelengths? * How critical is the role of the torus as an interface between small nuclear scales and large galactic scales? Does galaxy evolution necessarily require tori? * How close are we to self-consistently simulating nuclear activity including AGN feeding and nuclear star-formation? Workshop Rationale The three themes of accretion, orientation, and evolution will be covered through invited and solicited contributions. Different to other conferences, we are building each session around some key papers that have shaped the field or those with great future potential to do so. We specifically pit competing ideas against each other to help painting a realistic picture of the state-of-the-art. Each session will end with discussion rounds delving into important future

  16. Technical Note: 30 years of HIRS data of upper tropospheric humidity

    K. Gierens

    2014-07-01

    Radiation Sounder data to produce a 30-year data set of upper tropospheric humidity with respect to ice (UTHi. Since the required brightness temperatures (channels 12 and 6, T12 and T6 are intercalibrated to different versions of the HIRS sensors (HIRS/2 and HIRS/4 it is necessary to convert the channel 6 brightness temperatures which are intercalibrated to HIRS/4 into equivalent brightness temperatures intercalibrated to HIRS/2, which is achieved using a linear regression. Using the new regression coefficients we produce daily files of UTHi, T12 and T6, for each NOAA satellite and METOP-A (Meteorological Operational Satellite Programme, which carry the HIRS instrument. From this we calculate daily and monthly means in 2.5° × 2.5° resolution for the northern midlatitude zone 30–60° N. As a first application we calculate decadal means of UTHi and the brightness temperatures for the two decades 1980–1989 and 2000–2009. We find that the humidity mainly increased from the 1980s to the 2000s and that this increase is highly statistically significant in large regions of the considered midlatitude belt. The main reason for this result and its statistical significance is the corresponding increase of the T12 variance. Changes of the mean brightness temperatures are less significant.

  17. Analysis of strong rainfall events at Cividale del Friuli (Northeastern Italy) from 1920 to 2007

    Colucci, R. R.; Cucchi, F.; Stravisi, F.; Zini, L.

    2009-04-01

    Strong rainfall events have been selected from a detailed statistical investigation of the rainfall regime recorded at Cividale del Friuli (which is a town situated in the piedmont area of the Italian Prealpi Giulie), by applying suitable thresholds on the set of monthly and daily rainfall. On the basis of these data the following aspects as been explored: Time evolution of the location of the most rainy month, for each year, in the meteorological seasons; Return period, in years, of the maximum monthly precipitation, for each year; Return period, in years, of the maximum daily precipitation, for each year; Return period, in years, of the maximum precipitation during two consecutive days, for each year; Trend of the series of rainy days above a given thresholds, for different thresholds; Long term evolution of the infra-annual precipitation by averaging four 21-years cycles of rainfall for the periods 1924-44, 1945-65, 1966-86, 1987-2007; Comparison of the above rainfall series with that of Trieste which is a coastal town situated at the north-eastern most part of the Adriatic sea, about 70 km far from Cividale del Friuli (which is usually much more rainy than Trieste). Unlike the almost constant linear trend for Trieste, that of Cividale del Friuli is markedly decreasing in the whole period 1920-2007. This phenomenon is ascribed to a recent climatic change in the mesoscale wind regime in which winds from NW-N-NE are more frequent than those zonal. Therefore in the areas more close to the mountains a lesser and lesser quantity of rain is recorded relatively to the areas far enough from the mountains like Trieste. The different behaviour is more evident during spring and summer which are the seasons with the higher occurrence of thunderstorms. Winter period shows a different behaviour between the years before and after 1980; in the last 30 years the decreasing of the differences has been very pronounced. Further conclusions are the following: Total yearly rainfalls

  18. Evolution of Land Surface Modeling over the Last 30 Years

    Wood, E. F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2001-12-01

    John Schaake has been intimately involved in hydrological modeling and climate studies throughout his career, and initially proposed the Mississippi River basin as the first GEWEX continental scale basin. Land surface modeling has progressed to the point that coupled water-energy-vegetation macroscale models can run at high resolution at continental to global scales. This presentation will review this evolution of macroscale models and use recent results from the authors' Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale SVAT to revisit research quetions that John Schaake has investigated during his career. These results include a 17-year daily, 2-degree resolution global water balance simulation; a 50-year 3-hourly, 1/8-degree resolution U.S. LDAS-domain water-energy balance simulation; and real-time, hourly, 1/8-degree resolution U.S. LDAS-domain water-energy balance simulations.

  19. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  20. A Rainfall Model Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Algorithm for Rainfall Estimations over the Arid Qaidam Basin in China

    Aifeng Lv; Lei Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Accurate rainfall estimations based on ground-based rainfall observations and satellite-based rainfall measurements are essential for hydrological and environmental modeling in the Qaidam Basin of China. We evaluated the accuracy of daily and monthly scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall products in the Qaidam Basin. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to estimate the spatial distribution of the TRMM product error using altitude and geographical latitude an...

  1. Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation

    Jayawardena, AW; Xu, PC; Li, WK

    2009-01-01

    In many regions, monthly (or bimonthly) rainfall data can be considered as deterministic while daily rainfall data may be treated as random. As a result, deterministic models may not sufficiently fit the daily data because of the strong stochastic nature, while stochastic models may also not reliably fit into daily rainfall time series because of the deterministic nature at the large scale (i.e. coarse scale). Although there are different approaches for simulating daily rainfall, mixing of de...

  2. Isotretinoin: dose, duration and relapse. What does 30 years of usage tell us?

    Rademaker, Marius

    2013-08-01

    With 30 years of clinical use, it is appropriate to review the use of isotretinoin. We now understand that retinoids influence cellular growth, differentiation, morphogenesis and apoptosis, inhibit tumour promotion and malignant cell growth, exert immuno-modulatory actions and alter cellular cohesiveness. This has expanded the indications of isotretinoin from just acne and rosacea to a wide range of inflammatory and malignant skin disorders. While the standard dose of 0.5 to 1 mg/kg per day for 4 months to a cumulative dose of 120-140 mg/kg per day has served us well in the management of acne vulgaris, there is emerging evidence that much lower dosages (as low as 5 mg/day) are just as effective but have significantly fewer adverse effects. Relapse of acne vulgaris continues to be a problem but we are beginning to recognise that this is related less to the cumulative dose and more to the length of sebaceous gland suppression. Other factors important for relapse include a macrocomedonal pattern of acne, smoking and age, both younger (under 14 years) and older (over 25 years). After 30 years of use, we now understand why isotretinoin is such an effective drug. Not only does it clear acne in almost all patients, long-term remission can be achieved in 70-80% of patients with a single course. Important changes in the use of isotretinoin include using a lower daily dose for a longer period of time. New indications continue to emerge, particularly as a potential treatment for both intrinsic and extrinsic (photo) aging. Teratogenicity however, remains a very significant concern. PMID:23013115

  3. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    Lan-Fen Chu; Michael McAleer; Ching-Chung Chang

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model. The non-stationary model means that the parameter of location of the GEV distribution is formulated as linear and quadratic functions of time to detect temporal trends in the maximum rainfall. Future behavior ...

  4. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    Lan-Fen Chu; Michael McAleer; Ching-Chung Chang

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model. The non-stationary model means that the parameter of location of the GEV distribution is formulated as linear and quadratic functions of time to detect temporal trends in the maximum rainfall. Future behavior ...

  5. Threshold modeling of extreme spatial rainfall

    Thibaud, E; Mutzner, R.; Davison, A. C.

    2013-01-01

    We propose an approach to spatial modeling of extreme rainfall, based on max-stable processes fitted using partial duration series and a censored threshold likelihood function. The resulting models are coherent with classical extreme-value theory and allow the consistent treatment of spatial dependence of rainfall using ideas related to those of classical geostatistics. We illustrate the ideas through data from the Val Ferret watershed in the Swiss Alps, based on daily cumulative rainfall tot...

  6. Changes in the rainfall-streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

    Pieri, Linda; Rondini, Davide; Ventura, Francesca

    2016-05-01

    Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on this phenomenon, long data-sets of meteorological data as well as temperature and rainfall extreme events are needed, since they are important climate variability indicators. In a small semi-agricultural catchment of the Italian Apennines, drained by the Centonara Stream, weather data have been monitored for 30 years (1986-2015). Here, their trend was identified with Mann-Kendall test, and the temperature and precipitation extremes were characterized by means of specific indices. Data were analyzed at event, daily, seasonal, and annual bases. In addition, to understand implications of rainfall patterns on catchment hydrological response, a total of 388 rainfall-streamflow events (recorded during 1994-2009) were analyzed. Results showed a significant increase of temperature (minimum (Tn), mean (Tm), and maximum (Tx)), both at annual and seasonal base, except for Winter, with an annual mean increase of 0.08, 0.09, and 0.13 °C year-1 for Tn, Tm, and Tx, respectively. Annual rainfall data showed a positive trend for the number of wet days, but not in the quantity. In Winter, the rainfall amount and the number of wet days increased. The annual number of rainfall extreme events (P > 20.2 mm and D > 18.3 h) significantly increased, especially in spring and autumn. The rainfall-streamflow relationship suggested that the flow response of the Centonara Stream depends mainly on the rainfall amount. So, since the number of extreme events (P > 20.2 mm) is increasing in spring and autumn, an increase of events with high streamflow in these seasons may occur.

  7. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  8. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  9. Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

    In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

  10. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    S. Yin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  11. Characteristics of atmospheric aerosol optical depth variation over China in recent 30 years

    2000-01-01

    This note retrieves the annual and monthly mean 0.75 μm aerosol optical depth (AOD) by using the daily direct solar radiation and sunshine duration data of 47 solar stations from 1961 to 1990. The characteristic of AOD variation over China in recent 30 years was analyzed. The results indicate that AOD increased obviously over China from 1961 to 1990. AOD increased most rapidly over the east part of Southwest China, the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Tibetan Plateau. The increasing trend of AOD is also relatively distinct in North China, the Shandong Peninsula, east part of Qinghai Province, and coastal areas of Guangdong Province. However, in most parts of Northwest China and Northeast China, the increase of AOD is less significant, while in the west part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and some parts of Yunnan Province, AOD shows decreasing tendency. Generally, AOD reaches its maximum in spring and the minimum appears in summer. As to the linear trend, the maximum occurs in spring but the minimum in winter. Among the 47 stations selected in this note, the largest three stations of AOD are Chengdu, Chongqing and Nanchong, respectively, which all lie in the Sichuan Basin, and the smallest value of AOD occurs in Jinghong located in Yunnan Province.

  12. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN DOBRUDJA

    Marius Lungu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Torrential rains fall during the warm season due to the intensification of the Azores Anticyclone activity, and the Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclone. Fundamental processes that lead to the development of cloud formations capable of producing large amounts of precipitation are, as it is known, convection and turbulent exchanges inside air masses. Summer rainfall in Dobrudja is of frontal nature and usually occurs during the day as showers. The correlation curve between the distance to the Black Sea of the pluviometric points and the maximum daily amounts of precipitation (24 hours fallen during each of the summer months has a similar aspect to that of the average precipitation quantities on the Dobrudja territory during the warm period of the year (April-October (Mihăilescu, 2001. Maximum amounts of rainfall (24 hours decrease gradually from the land, from a distance of 30-35 km,with a tendency to reach the lowest values on the Black Sea littoral. The significant correlation coefficient between the distance to the sea and the maximum daily amounts of precipitation (24 hours confirms their obvious influence on precipitation distribution in Dobrudja

  13. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale;

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and conti...

  14. Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

    Hu, Q; Yang, H.; Meng, X.; Wang, Y.; Deng, P.

    2015-01-01

    A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH) and gauge measurements was conduc...

  15. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  16. Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra valley of North East India

    Deka, R. L.; Mahanta, C.; Nath, K. K.; Dutta, M. K.

    2016-05-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over 110 years (1901-2010), were utilized for trend analysis at different spatial and temporal scales over the Brahmaputra valley, India. The Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. Statistical significance of the decadal shifts in rainfall from the overall mean was estimated by using Cramer's test. The analysis revealed decrease in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the Brahmaputra valley during the last 110 years with large spatial and temporal variations. These decreasing trends of rainfall in the eastern part of the valley were statistically significant. Significant decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall, and this trend was found to be consistent at different spatial scales. In the last decade (2001-2010) in particular, monsoon rainfall exhibited significant negative deviation from the normal due to three deficient years and absence of excess rainfall years. On the contrary, contribution of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall to annual total in the Brahmaputra valley increased during the recent 30-year period. Winter rainfall in the valley decreased during the last 30 years due to significant decrease of December rainfall in the eastern and central parts.

  17. Análisis metodológico de la distribución espacial de la precipitación y la estimación media diaria Methodological analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall and the average daily stimation

    Mauro Íñiguez Covarrubias

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del trabajo consistió en mostrar un análisis metodológico geoestadístico, para generar un patrón espacial de la lluvia, asociado a la precipitación media diaria. Caracterizar y conocer la distribución espacial de la precipitación, también conocida como "campo de tormenta" y asociarla a un modelo de distribución o sustituirla por una precipitación media por métodos convencionales, es un reto importante en estudios de las ciencias del agua. La metodología propuesta requiere de la construcción de un variograma, elaborado por un ajuste de datos experimentales de un campo de tormenta, que sirva como base para generar la distribución espacial de la lluvia con la aplicación del método geoestadístico del "krigeado". Esto permite determinar la precipitación media diaria de una cuenca hidrográfica. Los resultados muestran que es posible obtener una función que relacione la lluvia media con el campo de tormenta, mediante los parámetros α y β del variograma ajustado a un modelo esférico. Para validar la aplicación de la metodología se analizaron varios eventos, aquí se presentan dos eventos de precipitación observada en la cuenca del río Juchipila, y río Calvillo, entre los estados de Aguascalientes y Zacatecas. Los resultados muestran una relación única de la lluvia media diaria con la distribución espacial, representada por el campo de tormenta. Asimismo, se encontró que el valor óptimo de la función es mínimo al compararlo con los resultados obtenidos por cuatro métodos convencionales: promedio aritmético, polígonos de Thiessen, método de isoyetas y método de krigeado lineal.The aim of the study was to show a geostatistical methodological analysis to create a spatial pattern of rain, related to average daily rainfall. Defining and knowing the spatial distribution of rainfall, also known as the "storm field" and related to a distribution model, or replacing it to an average rainfall using conventional

  18. 30 years of upper air soundings on board of R/V POLARSTERN

    Driemel, Amelie; Loose, Bernd; Grobe, Hannes; Sieger, Rainer; König-Langlo, Gert

    2016-06-01

    The research vessel and supply icebreaker POLARSTERN is the flagship of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Bremerhaven (Germany) and one of the infrastructural pillars of German Antarctic research. Since its commissioning in 1982, POLARSTERN has conducted 30 campaigns to Antarctica (157 legs, mostly austral summer), and 29 to the Arctic (94 legs, northern summer). Usually, POLARSTERN is more than 300 days per year in operation and crosses the Atlantic Ocean in a meridional section twice a year. The first radiosonde on POLARSTERN was released on the 29 December 1982, 2 days after POLARSTERN started on its maiden voyage to the Antarctic. And these daily soundings have continued up to the present. Due to the fact that POLARSTERN has reliably and regularly been providing upper air observations from data sparse regions (oceans and polar regions), the radiosonde data are of special value for researchers and weather forecast services alike. In the course of 30 years (29 December 1982 to 25 November 2012) a total of 12 378 radiosonde balloons were started on POLARSTERN. All radiosonde data can now be found at König-Langlo (2015, http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.810000" target="_blank">doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.810000). Each data set contains the directly measured parameters air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, and the derived altitude, wind direction and wind speed. 432 data sets additionally contain ozone measurements.Although more sophisticated techniques (meteorological satellites, aircraft observation, remote-sensing systems, etc.) have nowadays become increasingly important, the high vertical resolution and quality of radiosonde data remains paramount for weather forecasts and modelling approaches.

  19. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  20. A Rainfall Model Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Algorithm for Rainfall Estimations over the Arid Qaidam Basin in China

    Aifeng Lv

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate rainfall estimations based on ground-based rainfall observations and satellite-based rainfall measurements are essential for hydrological and environmental modeling in the Qaidam Basin of China. We evaluated the accuracy of daily and monthly scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM rainfall products in the Qaidam Basin. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR was used to estimate the spatial distribution of the TRMM product error using altitude and geographical latitude and longitude as independent variables. Finally, a rainfall model was developed by combining ground-based and satellite-based rainfall measurements, and the model precision was validated with a cross-validation method based on rainfall gauge measurements. The TRMM precipitation observations may contain errors compared with the ground-measured precipitation, and the error for daily data was higher than that for monthly data. A time series of TRMM rainfall measurements at the same location showed errors at certain time intervals. The ground-based and satellite-based rainfall GWR model improved the error in the TRMM rainfall products. This rainfall estimation model with a 1-km spatial resolution is applicable in the Qaidam Basin in which there is a sparse network of rainfall gauges, and is significant for spatial investigations of hydrology and climate change.

  1. Strongest Tropical cyclones: 1980-2009: A 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Strongest Tropical Cyclones: 1980-2009 poster - a 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data. This poster depicts a series of 5 degree grids where within...

  2. U.S. Daily Climate Normals (1981-2010)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Daily Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters for thousands of U.S. stations located across the 50 states, as...

  3. Exhibition on the 30 Years of Reform and Opening-up Held

    2009-01-01

    @@ In commemoration of the 30 years of reform and opening-up, under the authorization of the State Council, the "Review Exhibition on the 30-Year Reform and Opening-Up of China," jointly sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, the International Communication Office of the CPC Central Committee, the Party Literature Research Center of the CPC Central Committee and Xinhua News Agency, opened in the Exhibition Hall of the China World Trade Center on December 18.

  4. Polyurethane-Coated Breast Implants Revisited: A 30-Year Follow-Up

    Castel, Nikki; Soon-Sutton, Taylor; Deptula, Peter; Flaherty, Anna; Parsa, Fereydoun Don

    2015-01-01

    Background Polyurethane coating of breast implants has been shown to reduce capsular contracture in short-term follow-up studies. This 30-year study is the longest examination of the use of polyurethane-coated implants and their correlation with capsular contracture. Methods This study evaluates the senior surgeon's (F.D.P.) experience with the use of polyurethane-coated implants in aesthetic breast augmentation in 382 patients over 30 years. Follow-up evaluations were conducted for six month...

  5. Variability of rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Wong, C. L.; R. Venneker; Uhlenbrook, S.; A. B. M. Jamil; Zhou, Y.

    2009-01-01

    This study analyzed and quantified the spatial patterns and time-variability of rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia on monthly, yearly and monsoon temporal scales. We first obtained an overview of rainfall patterns through the analysis of 16 point data sources. The results led to choosing three distinct regions, i.e.~the east coast, inland and west coast regions. For detailed analysis, Shepard's interpolation scheme was applied to the station data to produce daily rainfall fields on a 0.05 d...

  6. Simulação da precipitação diária para Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, em planilha eletrônica Daily rainfall simulation in Parnaíba and Teresina - Brazil, using a spreadsheet

    Aderson S. de Andrade Júnior

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Os estudos envolvendo precipitação pluviométrica são bastante dificultados devido ao fato das séries históricas disponíveis serem, na maioria dos casos, muito pequenas para efetuá-los. Desta forma, faz-se necessário dispor de uma técnica de simulação estocástica que possibilite a geração de valores diários de precipitação, utilizando-se uma planilha eletrônica. No Estado do Piauí, estudos com esse objetivo são inexistentes, razão por que este trabalho tem o objetivo de simular a precipitação pluviométrica diária para as regiões de Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, através de uma planilha eletrônica. O processo de simulação se baseou no método de Monte Carlo. A ocorrência da precipitação foi determinada através da cadeia de Markov, enquanto a sua magnitude foi estimada pelas funções de distribuição de probabilidades gama e empírica. O modelo utilizado proporcionou estimativas com excelente precisão e exatidão, fato comprovado pelos resultados satisfatórios quanto aos índices de desempenho estatísticos.The studies involving rainfall are quite difficult to conduct due to the fact that the available historical series, in most of the cases, are too small to make them. Thus, it is necessary to adjust a stochastic simulation technique that facilitates the generation of daily rainfall values, using a spreadsheet. In Piauí State, studies with this objective are inexistent for its several regions of agricultural importance. This work was executed with the objective of simulating the daily rainfall for the regions of Parnaíba and Teresina - PI, Brazil, using a spreadsheet. The simulation process was based on Monte Carlo's method. The occurrence of the rainfall was determined through a Markov chain, while its magnitude was estimated by gamma and empirical distribution functions. The model used provided estimates with excellent precision and accuracy, checked by satisfactory results of the statistical performance index.

  7. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin

    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  8. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  9. Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years

    ZHANG Geli; XU Xingliang; ZHOU Caiping; ZHANG Hongbin; OUYANG Hua

    2011-01-01

    Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years.Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia,one of the world's three prairies,is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying.It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change.NDVl (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),reflecting characteristics of plant growth,vegetation coverage and biomass,is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes.GIMMS NDVl from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVl from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland.The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly,seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites.In the past 30 years,vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors,and the correlations were dependent on the time scales.On an inter-annual scale,vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation,suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes.On a seasonal-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons.The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons,while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher,especially in summers.On a monthly-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger.This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth.Correlations between

  10. A description and evaluation of FAO satellite rainfall estimation algorithm

    Dinku, Tufa; Alessandrini, Stefano; Evangelisti, Mauro; Rojas, Oscar

    2015-09-01

    There are ongoing efforts to improve the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates. One of these efforts comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The FAO effort involves combining satellite rainfall estimates and meteorological model outputs with station measurements. The algorithm of the FAO satellite rainfall estimates (FAO-RFE) is presented and evaluated by comparing with raingauge data and other satellite rainfall products over eastern and western parts of Africa. The evaluations were done at daily and ten-daily time scales. The FAO-RFE has shown significant improvement over the individual inputs. However, comparison of FAO-RFE with other satellite rainfall products has shown a slight improvement only over areas with good station input. The main weakness of the FAO-RFE is that it overestimates rainfall occurrences, which is attributed to the forecast product used in the algorithm.

  11. Gastric cancer in young people under 30 years of age: worse prognosis, or delay in diagnosis?

    Gastric cancer is an aggressive disease with nonspecific early symptoms. Its incidence and prognosis in young patients has shown considerable variability. Our objective was to retrospectively study patients from our institution aged <30 years with gastric carcinoma. The study was undertaken to describe the experience of gastric cancer in this population, and to demonstrate its specific clinical and pathological characteristics. We reviewed the cases of histologically confirmed gastric cancer between 1985 and 2006 at the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología of Mexico (INCan); emphasis in our review was placed on clinical presentation, diagnostic and therapeutic intervention, pathology, and the results. Thirty cases of gastric carcinoma were reviewed. The patients’ median age was 27 years (range, 18–30 years) and the male:female ratio was 1:1. Gastric cancer exhibits different behavior in patients aged, 30 years, but delay in diagnosis and the tumor’s behavior appear to be the most important factors in prognosis of the disease

  12. Technical note on probabilistic assessment of one-step-ahead rainfall variation by Split Markov Process

    R. Maity; Prasad, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, Split Markov Process (SMP) is developed to assess one-step-ahead variation of daily rainfall at a rain gauge station. SMP is an advancement of general Markov Process (MP) and specially developed for probabilistic assessment of change in daily rainfall magnitude. The approach is based on a first-order Markov chain to simulate daily rainfall variation at a point through state/sub-state Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM). Th...

  13. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  14. Breast cancer in 30-year-old or younger patients: clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis

    Yao, Yongqiang; Cao, Mingqian; Fang, Hong; Xie, JiPing

    2015-01-01

    Background The number of 30-year-old or younger patients with breast cancer is increasing. The aim was to describe the clinicopathological features and prognosis of 30-year-old or younger patients with breast cancer. Methods We reviewed the records of 1,406 consecutive patients aged ≤50 years with first diagnosis of invasive breast cancer referred to surgery from March 2001 to March 2009. A total of 105 patients were aged ≤30 years (group I) and 1,301 were aged 31–50 years (group II). Results...

  15. Carbon dioxide exchange above a 30-year-old Scots pine plantation established on organic-soil cropland

    In the boreal zone, large areas of natural mires have been drained and used for agriculture, resulting in net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and increased nitrous oxide emissions but decreased methane emissions. However, due to structural changes in agriculture, a substantial area of cropland on organic soil has been afforested. In order to estimate the carbon balance of afforested organic-soil cropland, we measured CO2 and water vapour (H2O) fluxes during year above a Scots pine plantation (Pinus sylvestris) in the middle-boreal zone, using the micrometeorological eddy covariance method. We observed CO2 uptake by the Scots pine stand from late April to mid-October with a daily average net uptake from May to the beginning of October. However, there were also periods of daily net efflux. High ecosystem respiration rates continued throughout the winter (mean winter respiration 0.036 mg CO2 m-2s-1). As an annual average, the 30-year-old pine stand was a small source of CO2 (+50 g m-2a-1) to the atmosphere, showing that the CO2 sequestration into the ecosystem was able to compensate for most of the carbon that was released by heterotrophic respiration from the drained soil. (orig.)

  16. A Rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in bangladesh

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation mod...

  17. Variação espaço-temporal dos parâmetros para a modelagem estocástica da precipitação pluvial diária no Rio Grande do Sul Temporal and spatial variation of parameters for the random modeling of daily rainfall in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Marcelo Calgaro

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available O Rio Grande do Sul é um dos maiores produtores de grãos do Brasil, sendo a maioria das culturas conduzida em sistemas não irrigados, tornando-lhes extremamente dependentes das condições climáticas e do regime pluviométrico. Tal fato inspira diversas pesquisas na tentativa de caracterizar o comportamento espacial e temporal das precipitações. Dessa forma, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a variação espacial e temporal dos parâmetros alfa e beta da função gama para a geração de dados de precipitação pluvial diária no Estado. Os dados de precipitação pluviométrica foram obtidos junto à ANA - Agência Nacional de Águas. A modelagem da precipitação diária foi dividida em ocorrência e quantidade. Realizou-se a estimativa dos parâmetros alfa e beta da função gama a partir das séries históricas, seguida do ajuste desses parâmetros em função do tempo e do espaço e posterior comparação entre os valores estimados e os observados. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, conclui-se que a metodologia desenvolvida pode ser aplicada para a geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação pluvial diária nas diferentes estações pluviométricas do Rio Grande do Sul.Rio Grande do Sul is one of the largest grain producer states in Brazil, since most of the crops grown in non-irrigated systems, thus making them extremely dependent on the climatic conditions and on the pluviometric regime. This fact has inspired several research studies in the attempt of characterizing the spatial and temporal behavior of the rainfall. The objective of this research was to study the spatial and temporal variation of alpha and beta parameters of the gamma function for the generation of daily rainfall data in the state. The pluviometric precipitation data were obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA. The modeling of the daily rainfall was divided into the events of occurrence and quantity. Estimation of alpha and beta parameters

  18. Rainfall hotspots over the southern tropical Andes : spatial distribution, rainfall intensity, and relations with large-scale atmospheric circulation

    J. C. Espinoza; Chavez, S.; Ronchail, J.; Junquas, Clémentine; K. Takahashi; W. Lavado

    2015-01-01

    The Andes/Amazon transition is among the rainiest regions of the world and the interactions between large-scale circulation and the topography that determine its complex rainfall distribution remain poorly known. This work provides an in-depth analysis of the spatial distribution, variability, and intensity of rainfall in the southern Andes/Amazon transition, at seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. The analysis is based on comprehensive daily rainfall data sets from meteorological stations...

  19. Studies Using Single-Subject Designs in Sport Psychology: 30 Years of Research

    Martin, G. L.; Thompson, K.; Regehr, K.

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we…

  20. Leadership and Change in Schools: Personal Reflections over the Last 30 Years

    Seashore, Karen R.

    2009-01-01

    The two fields of leadership studies and school change have increasingly converged over the last 30 years. This paper reviews the origins of the intersection, and the development of research themes in three areas: The role of leaders in shaping and using organizational culture, the agency of teachers in the change process, and the importance of…

  1. Recovering from 30 Years of War: Refugee Women and Children in Angola.

    Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children, New York, NY.

    After 30 years of war, Angola faces the challenge of creating a civil society. This report presents key findings of a visit to Angola, December 1-13, 1996, by the Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children. The report describes conditions facing women and children affected by war in Angola, addresses the return process of refugees from…

  2. Left ventricular pseudoaneurysm found after mitral valve replacement performed 30 years earlier.

    Castilla, Elena; Gato, Manuel; Ruiz, José Ramón

    2010-03-01

    Pseudoaneurysm of the left ventricle (LV) is a rare cardiac disease that occurs after myocardial infarction or cardiac surgery. Because patients frequently present with nonspecific symptoms, a high index of suspicion is needed to make the diagnosis. This report describes an unusual case demonstrating a large LV pseudoaneurysm after mitral valve replacement performed 30 years earlier. PMID:20197588

  3. Philosophic Thinking in Social Work: An Analysis of 30 Years of "Social Work" Editorials

    Martinez-Brawley, Emilia E.; Zorita, Paz M-B

    2016-01-01

    This article looks at 30 years of editorial perspectives and trends in social work as a profession through the analysis of editorials from the journal "Social Work." It identifies the wax and wane of philosophic (intellectual or scholarly) questions in social work thinking in the past three decades. It defines what philosophic thinking…

  4. Planting Misinformation in the Human Mind: A 30-Year Investigation of the Malleability of Memory

    Loftus, Elizabeth F.

    2005-01-01

    The misinformation effect refers to the impairment in memory for the past that arises after exposure to misleading information. The phenomenon has been investigated for at least 30 years, as investigators have addressed a number of issues. These include the conditions under which people are especially susceptible to the negative impact of…

  5. Bullying in Childhood, Externalizing Behaviors, and Adult Offending: Evidence from a 30-Year Study

    Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the developmental processes linking childhood bullying to criminal offending in adulthood, using data from a 30-year longitudinal study. The linkages between bullying in childhood and three criminal offending outcomes in adulthood were estimated both before and after control for a range of confounding factors. A series of…

  6. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 1

    2011-06-15

    Dr. Kevin DeCock, director of The Center for Global Health at CDC, reflects on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/16/2011.

  7. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  8. Prediction of Rainfall Using Logistic Regression

    A.H.M. Rahmatullah Imon

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} The use of logistic regression modeling has exploded during the past decade for prediction and forecasting. From its original acceptance in epidemiologic research, the method is now commonly employed in almost all branches of knowledge. Rainfall is one of the most important phenomena of climate system. It is well known that the variability and intensity of rainfall act on natural, agricultural, human and even total biological system. So it is essential to be able to predict rainfall by finding out the appropriate predictors. In this paper an attempt has been made to use logistic regression for predicting rainfall. It is evident that the climatic data are often subjected to gross recording errors though this problem often goes unnoticed to the analysts. In this paper we have used very recent screening methods to check and correct the climatic data that we use in our study. We have used fourteen years’ daily rainfall data to formulate our model. Then we use two years’ observed daily rainfall data treating them as future data for the cross validation of our model. Our findings clearly show that if we are able to choose appropriate predictors for rainfall, logistic regression model can predict the rainfall very efficiently.

  9. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  10. 30 years later: Social Representations about AIDS and sexual practices of rural towns residents.

    Furtado, Francisca Marina de Souza Freire; Santos, José Anderson Galdino; Loredanna, Stedile; Araújo, Eunice; Saldanha, Ana Alayde Werba; Silva, Josevânia da

    2016-06-01

    In the 30 years of the AIDS pandemic in Brazil, it is recognized the HIV virus internalization of the phenomenon as a challenge to care and current health policies. In this sense, it aimed to verify sex practices and social representations that rural towns residents have about the disease. Attended by 789 people, men and women, between 18 and 90 years old, residents in 41 towns with fewer than 11,000 inhabitants in the state of Paraiba / Brazil. Data were collected by a questionnaire and the free association of words test. The results showed low concern about disease, perception of invulnerability to HIV infection and not using condoms during sexual intercourse, and confidence in the major reason related partner. Also showed endure derogatory and stereotypical representations, revealing that still persist in rural areas, beliefs and representations concerning the beginning of the epidemic. From these findings, it is possible to point out deficiencies in the care provided by the health services in these localities, which may result in increased vulnerability of this population to diseases, so there is the need to intensify information campaigns and intervention. The results reveal the existence of three different types of modes of learning health literacy skills in informal context: : i) learning that takes place in action, in achieving daily tasks; ii) learning processes that result from problem solving; iii) learning that occurs in an unplanned manner, resulting from accidental circumstances and, in some cases, devoid of intentionality. Nos 30 anos da pandemia da Aids no Brasil, reconhece-se o fenômeno da interiorização do vírus HIV como um desafio ao cuidado e às politicas de saúde atuais. Neste sentido, objetivou-se conhecer práticas sexuais e as representações sociais que residentes de cidades rurais têm acerca da doença. Participaram 789 pessoas, homens e mulheres, entre 18 e 90 anos de idade, residentes em 41 cidades com menos de 11.000 habitantes

  11. Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, and its implications on soil water recharge Variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha em Piracicaba, SP, e suas implicações na recarga da água do solo

    K. Reichardt

    1995-04-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha was studied at Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, for the period of one year (1993-1994, in order to better understand the process of soil water recharge. Coefficients of variation of daily data for ten observation points varied from 2.2 to 169.3% and the variability was independent of rain type, i.e. whether convective, frontal or of other origin. Data were not related to separation distances between observation points and it is concluded that one observation point does not represent areas as far as 1,000 to 2,500 m apart, for daily, monthly or even quarterly averages. Yearly totals for the ten observation points presented a coefficient of variation as low as 3.06%, indicating that all points can replace each other in annual terms.A variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha foi estudada em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, pelo período de um ano (1993-1994. Os coeficientes de variação de dados diários para dez pontos de observação variaram de 2,2 a 169,3 % e a variabilidade independeu do tipo de chuva, isto é, se convectiva, frontal ou de outra origem. Os dados não apresentaram correlação com a distância entre os pontos de observação e concluiu-se que uni ponto de observação não representa áreas distantes dele de 1000 a 2500 m, para médias diárias, mensais ou mesmo trimestrais. Os totais anuais dos dez pontos apresentaram um coeficiente de variação de apenas 3,06 %, indicando que cada ponto pode representar qualquer outro em termos anuais.

  12. Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    Chu, Lan-Fen; McAleer, Michael; Wang, Szu-Hua

    2012-01-01

    This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute...

  13. Statistical Modeling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    Lan-Fen Chu; Michael McAleer; Szu-Hua Wang

    2012-01-01

    This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute...

  14. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  15. A randomized controlled 30 years follow up of three conventional resin composites in Class II restorations

    Pallesen, Ulla; van Dijken, Jan WV

    2015-01-01

    three (one set) as similar as possible Class II restorations of moderate size.After cavity preparation, the three cavities were chosen at random to be restored with twochemical-cured (P10, Miradapt) and one light-cured resin composite (P30). A chemical-curedenamel bonding agent was applied after etching...... of the enamel. The chemical-cured resincomposites were placed in bulk and the light-cured in increments. One operator placed 99restorations (33 sets). The restorations were evaluated with slightly modified USPHS crite-ria at baseline, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years. Statistical analyses were...... performed by theKaplan–Meier, log-rank test and Cox regression analyses. Results. After 30 years, 5 participants with 15 restorations (15%) could not be evaluated duringthe whole evaluation. Seven participants were considered as caries risk and eight partici-pants as having active parafunctional habits...

  16. 30 years of reform and opening up:experience and characteristics

    陈佳贵

    2008-01-01

    This year marks the 30th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up program,which has brought about unprecedented achievements in the country’s three decades of rapid development. This issue contains three articles on the theme of this 30th anniversary,presenting insights on the past and present and prospects for the coming period. The current issue includes "China’s 30 years of reform and opening up:experiences and characteristics" by Prof. Chen Jiagui;"30 years of prosperity in China’s non-state economy" by Prof. Liu Yingqiu; and "The development of an open economy in China" by Prof. Pei Changhong. These articles evaluate the policies of the past three decades from different angles and looking at different facets,yet each with theoretical as well as practical signif icance. We believe that these historical reflections will steer China on an even more successful path of future reform and opening.

  17. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    João eConde

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  18. Revisiting 30 years of biofunctionalization and surface chemistry of inorganic nanoparticles for nanomedicine

    Conde, João; Dias, Jorge T.; Grazú, Valeria; Moros, Maria; Baptista, Pedro V.; de la Fuente, Jesus M.

    2014-01-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold) nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles. PMID:25077142

  19. Two cases of colorectal cancer developed more than 30 years after pelvic radiation therapy

    We experienced two cases of advanced colorectal cancer developed after radiation therapy. One case was a 66-year old female who had received irradiation for her uterine cancer 35 years before. She was treated for a radiation colitis and a radiation dermatitis 6 years ago. Sigmoid colon cancer was pointed out by barium enema and colonoscopy, and Hartmann's operation was performed. The other case was a 68-year old man who had received irradiation for left malignant orchionous 30 years before. He had the radiation dermatitis in both inguinal region, and had received skin graft for the left inguinal dermatitis. He complained of anal bleeding, and rectal cancer was found out by the colonoscopy. Low anterior resection was performed. Their pathological findings showed mucinous adenocarcinoma. In a review of the Japanese literature, colorectal cancers developed more than 30 years after pelvic radiation therapy have been reported in only 8 cases including these two cases. (author)

  20. Revisiting 30 years of biofunctionalization and surface chemistry of inorganic nanoparticles for nanomedicine

    João eConde; Dias, Jorge T.; Valeria eGrazú; Maria eMoros; Baptista, Pedro V; de la Fuente, Jesús M

    2014-01-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the ...

  1. Spontaneous resolution rates of vesicoureteral reflux in Brazilian children: a 30-year experience

    Miguel Zerati Filho; Adriano A. Calado; Ubirajara Barroso Jr; Joao L. Amaro

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We evaluated clinical characteristics of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in infants in a 30-year period in Brazil with special reference to the relation of renal parenchymal damage to urinary tract infection and gender. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1975 through 2005, 417 girls (81.6%) and 94 boys (18.4%) with all grades of reflux were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by the worst grade of reflux, maintained on antibiotic prophylaxis and underwent yearly voidin...

  2. The Right Gastroepiploic Artery Graft for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A 30-Year Experience

    Suma, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Throughout its 30-year history, the right gastroepiploic artery (GEA) has been useful for in situ grafts in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The early graft patency rate is high, and the late patency rate has improved by using the skeletonized GEA graft and proper target selection, which involves having a target coronary artery with a tight >90% stenosis. Total arterial revascularization with the internal thoracic artery and GEA grafts is an option for achieving better outcomes from CABG procedures. PMID:27525230

  3. Studies using single-subject designs in sport psychology: 30 years of research

    Martin, Garry L.; Thompson, Kendra; Regehr, Kaleigh

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we summarize that body of research, discuss its strengths and limitations, and identify areas for future research.

  4. The behavioral pharmacology of anorexigenic drugs in nonhuman primates: 30 years of progress

    Foltin, Richard W.

    2012-01-01

    Comparatively few studies over the past 30 years have used pharmacological manipulations as a means of understanding processes underlying feeding behavior of nonhuman primates. In the 1970s and early 1980s, four laboratories provided data on the anorexigenic effects of a range of drugs on rhesus monkeys and baboons, and a fifth laboratory studied the effects of neuropeptides on feeding behavior of baboons. There were differences in the way anorexigenic drugs altered eating topography, and tho...

  5. A new model of Tidal EOP variations from VLBI data spanning 30 years

    Gipson, John M.; Ray, Richard D.

    2009-04-01

    We report on a new solution for tidal EOP variations derived from VLBI data. This solution uses approximately 6.5 million VLBI delay measurements spanning almost 30 years, and is the most precise VLBI solution to date. We compare this solution to earlier VLBI solutions, solutions from other techniques, and theoretical predictions. We give theoretical and empirical estimates of the error of the estimates. We also compare the predictions from the VLBI tidal solution with hourly VLBI and GPS measurements of EOP.

  6. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 2

    2011-06-15

    Dr. Jams Curran, Dean of the Rollins School of Public Health and Co-Director of Emory’s Center for AIDS Research, and Dr. Harold Jaffe, CDC’s Associate Director for Science, reflect on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/20/2011.

  7. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    José Antonio Luna Vera

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  8. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  9. The collaborative historical African rainfall model: description and evaluation

    Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Verdin, Jim; Artan, Guleid; Husak, Greg; Senay, Gabriel; Gadain, Hussein; Magadazire, Tamuka

    2003-01-01

    In Africa the variability of rainfall in space and time is high, and the general availability of historical gauge data is low. This makes many food security and hydrologic preparedness activities difficult. In order to help overcome this limitation, we have created the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM). CHARM combines three sources of information: climatologically aided interpolated (CAI) rainfall grids (monthly/0.5° ), National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis precipitation fields (daily/1.875° ) and orographic enhancement estimates (daily/0.1° ). The first set of weights scales the daily reanalysis precipitation fields to match the gridded CAI monthly rainfall time series. This produces data with a daily/0.5° resolution. A diagnostic model of orographic precipitation, VDELB - based on the dot-product of the surface wind V and terrain gradient (DEL) and atmospheric buoyancy B - is then used to estimate the precipitation enhancement produced by complex terrain. Although the data are produced on 0.1° grids to facilitate integration with satellite-based rainfall estimates, the true resolution of the data will be less than this value, and varies with station density, topography, and precipitation dynamics. The CHARM is best suited, therefore, to applications that integrate rainfall or rainfall-driven model results over large regions.The CHARM time series is compared with three independent datasets: dekadal satellite-based rainfall estimates across the continent, dekadal interpolated gauge data in Mali, and daily interpolated gauge data in western Kenya. These comparisons suggest reasonable accuracies (standard errors of about half a standard deviation) when data are aggregated to regional scales, even at daily time steps. Thus constrained, numerical weather prediction precipitation fields do a reasonable job of representing large-scale diurnal variations. Published in 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  11. Rainfall simulation in education

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  12. From runoff to rainfall: inverse rainfall-runoff modelling in a high temporal resolution

    Herrnegger, M.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Schulz, K.

    2015-11-01

    Rainfall exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability, especially in complex alpine terrain. Additionally, the density of the monitoring network in mountainous regions is low and measurements are subjected to major errors, which lead to significant uncertainties in areal rainfall estimates. In contrast, the most reliable hydrological information available refers to runoff, which in the presented work is used as input for an inverted HBV-type rainfall-runoff model that is embedded in a root finding algorithm. For every time step a rainfall value is determined, which results in a simulated runoff value closely matching the observed runoff. The inverse model is applied and tested to the Schliefau and Krems catchments, situated in the northern Austrian Alpine foothills. The correlations between inferred rainfall and station observations in the proximity of the catchments are of similar magnitude compared to the correlations between station observations and independent INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) rainfall analyses provided by the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). The cumulative precipitation sums also show similar dynamics. The application of the inverse model is a promising approach to obtain additional information on mean areal rainfall. This additional information is not solely limited to the simulated hourly data but also includes the aggregated daily rainfall rates, which show a significantly higher correlation to the observed values. Potential applications of the inverse model include gaining additional information on catchment rainfall for interpolation purposes, flood forecasting or the estimation of snowmelt contribution. The application is limited to (smaller) catchments, which can be represented with a lumped model setup, and to the estimation of liquid rainfall.

  13. Volatility modeling of rainfall time series

    Yusof, Fadhilah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal

    2013-07-01

    Networks of rain gauges can provide a better insight into the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates. A way to estimate the spatial variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them. This paper evaluates the spatial autocorrelation of rainfall data in some locations in Peninsular Malaysia using geostatistical technique. The results give an insight on the spatial variability of rainfall in the area, as such, two rain gauges were selected for an in-depth study of the temporal dependence of the rainfall data-generating process. It could be shown that rainfall data are affected by nonlinear characteristics of the variance often referred to as variance clustering or volatility, where large changes tend to follow large changes and small changes tend to follow small changes. The autocorrelation structure of the residuals and the squared residuals derived from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were inspected, the residuals are uncorrelated but the squared residuals show autocorrelation, and the Ljung-Box test confirmed the results. A test based on the Lagrange multiplier principle was applied to the squared residuals from the ARIMA models. The results of this auxiliary test show a clear evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Hence, it indicates that generalized ARCH (GARCH) modeling is necessary. An ARIMA error model is proposed to capture the mean behavior and a GARCH model for modeling heteroskedasticity (variance behavior) of the residuals from the ARIMA model. Therefore, the composite ARIMA-GARCH model captures the dynamics of daily rainfall in the study area. On the other hand, seasonal ARIMA model became a suitable model for the monthly average rainfall series of the same locations treated.

  14. Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

    Daniel R. Dourte; Clyde W. Fraisse; Wendy-Lin Bartels

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. Duri...

  15. A spatial analysis of rainfall damage data using c-band weather radar images

    M. H. Spekkers; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; J. A. E. ten Veldhuis

    2013-01-01

    Intense rainfall may locally cause considerable damage in cities, e.g. because of sewer floods. A better understanding of relationships between rainfall characteristics and rainfall-related damage can help insurers and flood authorities to respond more adequately to rainfall extremes. This paper aims to study to what extent weather radars can be helpful to predict damage locations and characteristics. For the Netherlands, damage data were analysed based on daily insurance records. A database ...

  16. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

    Vipul K. Dabhi; Sanjay Chaudhary

    2014-01-01

    An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise) component from the original time se...

  17. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  18. Spatial variation of the scaling structure of short-term rainfall over Portugal

    de Lima, M. I. P.; Coelho, M. F. E. S.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

    2009-04-01

    years. Relevant scaling ranges are identified and characterized. These are important features for time-downscaling issues in places where point-rainfall data is typically available at daily resolution. This study complements previous rainfall studies in the region and contributes to the clarification of the small-scale behaviour and statistics of this process.

  19. The biochemistry and nutrition group: 30 years of research in a developing country.

    Levy Benshimol, A

    1996-12-01

    The most relevant results of 30 years of research from the Group of Biochemistry and Nutrition are presented. Research was focused mainly around the identification and detection of the heatlabile toxic factors present in legume seeds of human consumption, namely protease inhibitors and lectins with special emphasis on their isolation, molecular characterization, mechanistic and nutritional relevance of both protein groups. The antinutritional effect of the polyphenols, thermolabile compounds present in colored seeds, has also been studied as well as the impact of seed complex carbohydrates on the digestive process. PMID:9137631

  20. Orbital Extension of a Giant Ethmoidal Sinus Osteoma in a 30-Year-old Female

    Esmat Karbassi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Osteoma is a benign tumor rarely found in the paranasal sinuses.   Case Report: A 30-year-old female presented with an 8-month history of proptosis of the right eye that was progressing slowly. She was diagnosed with ethmoid osteoma and managed with collaborative surgery at the ophthalmology and otolaryngology departments. After surgery, the patient suffered visual loss that was managed medically. The surgical steps and protocol used for safe removal are discussed in the report.    Conclusion: Management of a giaint osteoma extending to orbital tissue needs meticulous dissection through open approach and collaborative surgery by otolaryngologist and ophtalmologist

  1. Solvent/detergent-treated plasma: a tale of 30 years of experience.

    Liumbruno, Giancarlo Maria; Marano, Giuseppe; Grazzini, Gioia; Capuzzo, Enrico; Franchini, Massimo

    2015-06-01

    Solvent/detergent-treated plasma was licensed >30 years ago. It has several specific characteristics, the most important being the standardized content of clotting factors, the lack of antibodies implicated in transfusion-related acute lung injury pathogenesis and the very high level of safety against transfusion-related viral infections. Since 1992, many clinical studies have confirmed its safety and efficacy in a wide range of congenital and acquired bleeding disorders. After a brief analysis of the pharmaceutical characteristics of solvent/detergent plasma, this review will focus on the clinical experience with this virus-inactivated plasma. PMID:25695198

  2. Bose–Einstein condensation of excitons in Cu2O: progress over 30 years

    Experiments on Bose–Einstein condensation (BEC) of excitons in the semiconductor Cu2O started over 30 years ago, as one of the first serious attempts at exciton BEC. Early claims were based on spectroscopic signatures and transport data which have since been reinterpreted, in large part because the Auger recombination process for excitons was not well understood. Understanding of the Auger process has advanced, and recent experiments have made significant progress toward exciton BEC. We review the history of experiments on exciton BEC in Cu2O, the Auger recombination process, and the prospects for observing exciton BEC in this system in the near future. (review article)

  3. 30 years of multi-wavelength observations of 3C 273

    Turler, M.; Paltani, S.; Courvoisier, T. J. -L.; Aller, M. F.; H. D. Aller(Astronomy Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor); Blecha, A.; Bouchet, P.; Lainela, M.; McHardy, I.M.; Robson, E. I.; J. A. Stevens; Terasranta, H.; Tornikoski, M.; Ulrich, M.-H.; Waltman, E. B.

    1998-01-01

    We present a wide multi-wavelength database of most observations of the quasar 3C 273 obtained during the last 30 years. This database is the most complete set of observations available for an active galactic nucleus (AGN). It contains nearly 20'000 observations grouped together into 70 light curves covering 16 orders of magnitude in frequency from the radio to the gamma-ray domain. The database is constituted of many previously unpublished observations and of most publicly available data gat...

  4. Natural Products as Sources of New Drugs over the 30 Years from 1981 to 2010†

    Newman, David J.; Cragg, Gordon M.

    2012-01-01

    This review is an updated and expanded version of the three prior reviews that were published in this journal in 1997, 2003 and 2007. In the case of all approved therapeutic agents, the time frame has been extended to cover the 30 years from January 1st 1981 to December 31st 2010 for all diseases world-wide, and from 1950 (earliest so far identified) to December 2010 for all approved antitumor drugs world-wide. We have continued to utilize our secondary subdivision of a “natural product mimic...

  5. Arctic Climate Change Analysed By Two 30-year Scenario Regional Climate Model Runs

    Kiilsholm, S.; Christensen, J. H.

    High-resolution climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The emission sce- narios used were the IPCC SRES1 marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. Changes of the climate between these two periods will be presented with special emphasize on the climate of Greenland.

  6. The effect of spatial rainfall variability on water balance modelling for south-eastern Australian catchments

    Zhao, Fangfang; Zhang, Lu; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Vaze, Jai; Cheng, Lei

    2013-06-01

    Spatial rainfall variability is considered an important factor affecting the accuracy of streamflow prediction. This study evaluated the effect of spatial rainfall variability on water balance modelling by conducting a series of virtual experiments. The three-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC-3L) was applied using both uniform and spatially variable rainfall for 60 catchments in south-eastern Australia. The spatially variable rainfall was generated from the 0.05° gridded SILO daily rainfall with different degrees of variability. The VIC-3L model was calibrated against observed daily streamflow using gridded SILO daily rainfall to generate reference parameter values. Then the model was applied using the generated spatially variable rainfall and reference parameter values to produce virtual water balance components associated with different spatially variable rainfall. Differences between the lumped and distributed modelling (i.e. virtual experiments) represent the effects of spatial rainfall variability on water balance modelling. The results showed that spatial rainfall variability interacts with catchments characteristics to influence hydrological processes and the effects are not uniform on different water balance components. For a given rainfall total, ignoring spatial rainfall variability will result in underestimation of the total streamflow volume and overestimation of evapotranspiration. Effect of spatial rainfall variability on water balance modelling is more pronounced in catchments with larger rainfall variability. In most cases, information on spatial rainfall variability will help to improve accuracy of water balance modelling. However, in some cases, lumped water balance modelling (i.e. ignoring spatial rainfall variability) may outperform distributed modelling due to catchment filtering effect. The results from this study suggest that more accurate information of rainfall spatial distribution in a catchment can help to improve water

  7. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  8. What Can We Learn About Glaciers and Ice Sheets From 30 Years of Landsat Imagery?

    Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Moholdt, G.; Nilsson, J.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier and ice sheets are known to be rapidly changing and currently account for two thirds of observed sea level rise. Attributing the causes of the rapid decline in land ice requires separation of mass change processes, i.e. accumulation of precipitation, meltwater runoff, and solid ice discharge. Here we examine a 30 year record of Landsat imagery to determine trends in glacier velocity at a global scale in an attempt to identify anomalies in glacier flow that are contributing to changes in land ice mass. The Landsat archive represents a treasure trove of information with hundreds of thousands of images acquired over glaciers and ice sheets during the past 30 years. Gleaning useful and consistent surface displacement information from a multiple sensor archive that is heavily contaminated by cloud, saturated images, poorly resolved sensor geometry, and data gaps has proved challenging. Temporal stacking of displacement fields (Dehecq et al., 2015) and correcting for unresolved topography (Roseanau et al., 2012) have been shown to greatly improve derived velocities. Here we present results from a global processing of the complete Landsat archive for information on glacier surface displacements. We highlight patterns of coherent regional change as well as well as rapid basin-scale changes in glacier flow.

  9. Chernobyl: 30 years after - Proceedings of the technical meeting of the French Society of Radiation Protection

    The French Society of Radiation Protection (SFRP) organized a technical meeting on the present day situation of the Chernobyl site, 30 years after the accident of the nuclear power plant. The review deals with the situation of the facility and of its safety works, the environment, the management of wastes, the workers and populations exposure, and the health monitoring of the exposed populations. This document brings together the abstracts and the presentations (slides) of the different talks given at the meeting: 1 - The main highlights 30 years after the Chernobyl accident (Didier CHAMPION, SFRP); 2 - Circumstances, progress and consequences of the Chernobyl accident - Lessons and experience feedback for the other RBMK reactors (Michel CHOUHA, IRSN); 3 - Chernobyl, a confinement arch for 100 years (Patrick CHABRIER, Thomas CHAUVEAU - BOUYGUES); 4 - The reactor wastes management and the dismantling operations (Guy DAMETTE - IRSN); 5 - Environment contamination in the vicinity of the site (Yves THIRY - ANDRA); 6 - Impact of the accident on agriculture (Vanessa DURAND - IRSN); 7 - The fate of remediation wastes (Francois BESNUS - IRSN); 8 - Chernobyl fallouts in France (Philippe RENAUD - IRSN); 9 - The ecological consequences of the Chernobyl accident (Christelle ADAM-GUILLERMIN - IRSN); 10 - Results of liquidators and populations exposure (Florence MENETRIER - CEA); 11 - Thyroid cancers monitoring in the Chernobyl area and the role of modifying genetic factors (Fabienne LESUEUR - Institut Curie); 12 - Results of the Chernobyl accident health impact studies (Dominique LAURIER - IRSN); 13 - Impact on populations living condition (Thierry SCHNEIDER - CEPN); 14 - Molecular signature of radiation induced thyroid tumors (Sylvie CHEVILLARD - CEA)

  10. A spatial-temporal rainfall generator for urban drainage design.

    McRobie, Fiona H; Wang, Li-Pen; Onof, Christian; Kenney, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    The work presented here is a contribution to the Thames Water project of improving the Counters Creek catchment sewerage system in London. An increase in the number of floods affecting basements in the area has indicated the need for improvements to the system. The cost of such improvements could be very high, and as such it is important to determine whether the traditional approach of applying 30-year spatially uniform design storms results in substantial overestimation. The first step in this is to generate simulations of spatially distributed rainfall events, from which 30-year storms can be extracted. Storms are modelled as clusters of Gaussian rainfall cells, extending the earlier Willems method to radar rainfall data. The parameters describing the cells and their motion are sampled from probability distributions derived from parameter estimates gained from 45 historical storm events within the catchment for the period 2000-2011. This spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall generator produces a two-dimensional time series of simulated storm events, from which events of given return period can be identified. PMID:23823561

  11. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    1999-01-01

    Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of

  12. Rainfall triggered dynamics of Aedes mosquito aggressiveness

    P.I. Ndiaye; Bicout, D J; Mondet, Bernard; Sabatier, P.

    2006-01-01

    Inspired by Davidson method of estimating daily survivals of a structureless population of mosquitoes, we present a model which describes the behavior of floodwater mosquitoes in terms of emergence functions following a rainfall event, blood feeding frequency and parous stages, and survival at various stages. As a generalization of the Davidson formula, we have developed an approach for dealing with the dynamics of structured population of mosquitoes, and derived various formulas allowing ass...

  13. 30-year changes in the nitrogen inputs to the Yangtze River Basin

    To understand both spatial and temporal changes in nitrogen inputs to the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), we collected decadal statistical data for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 at the county level and the annual statistical data for the period 1980–2010 at the provincial level of China. Based on these datasets, we estimated the nitrogen inputs, including the atmospheric deposition, synthetic N fertilizer, biological N fixation and recycling reactive N inputs, such as N from human waste and animal excrement, crop residue recycled as manure, and N emission from burning crop residue. The results showed that, geographically, the variation of the total amount of N input during the last 30 years (δN = N2010 – N1980) has increased about 0–50 kg ha−1 over most of the area of the YRB. Moreover, it has increased dramatically by about 50–300 kg ha−1 in the Sichuan Basin, the Han River Basin, the Poyang and Dongting lake basins, and the Yangtze Delta as well. Temporally, the total amount of N inputs to the whole YRB was approximately 16.4 Tg N in 2010, which was a 2.0-fold increase over 1980. It increased dramatically in the 1990s and then stabilized at a high level in the 2000s. The major N inputs were human and animal wastes as well as synthetic fertilizers, but they varied regionally. Animal waste was the major input to the water source regions, and its contribution percentage gradually decreased from upper to lower reaches. In contrast, the contribution of N fertilizer increased from upper to lower reaches, and became the major input to the middle and lower reaches. The total N inputs changed slightly in the upper reaches, but increased largely in the middle reaches in the last 30 years. However, in the lower reaches, it had increased remarkably before 2000, and then tended to decrease in the last decade. Finally, the atmospheric N deposition over the basin increased continuously in the last 30 years. (paper)

  14. The effect of supplementary calcium on blood pressure in healthy adult women aged 18-30 years in Tehran, Iran

    Entezari, Mohammad Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality in developed countries and has an increasing trend in developing countries. There are some evidences that calcium supplementation may decrease blood pressure and consequently cardiovascular disease, but they are not conclusive and there is no agreement in this respect. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of supplementary calcium on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in healthy adult women aged 18–30 years. Materials and Methods: Seventy-five normotensive volunteers were randomly divided into two groups, the treatment group received 1000 mg/day calcium (four doses of 625 mg calcium carbonate) for 1 month and the control group received placebo (dextrose). Systolic and diastolic blood pressure was determined before and after intervention in supine position after 10 min of rest. Results: The mean daily calcium intake from food was 773.9 mg in treatment and 721 mg in control group (no significant difference) but in both the groups dietary calcium intake was less than the recommended dietary allowance: After calcium supplementation, the mean change of systolic blood pressure was not significant in the two groups, but diastolic blood pressure reduced in treatment group and increased in control group (−4.9 vs 2.6 mmHg) (P < 0.05). Conclusions: These results suggest that, calcium supplementation does not have any effect on systolic blood pressure of our volunteers but can decrease diastolic blood pressure significantly and therefore it seems that calcium supplementation may be useful for people with increased diastolic blood pressure, especially for those who receive less calcium than recommended dietary allowance. PMID:26430694

  15. Iron status in 268 Danish women aged 18-30 years: influence of menstruation, contraceptive method, and iron supplementation.

    Milman, N; Clausen, J; Byg, K E

    1998-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of menstruation, method of contraception, and iron supplementation on iron status in young Danish women, and to assess whether iron deficiency could be predicted from the pattern of menstruation. Iron status was examined by measuring serum (S-) ferritin and hemoglobin (Hb) in 268 randomly selected, healthy, menstruating, nonpregnant Danish women aged 18-30 years. Iron deficiency (S-ferritin <16 microg/l) was observed in 9.7%, of the women, iron deficiency anemia (S-ferritin < 13 microg/l and Hb < 121 g/l) in 2.2%. Iron supplementation, predominantly as vitamin-mineral tablets containing 14-20 mg of ferrous iron was used by 35.1%. The median serum ferritin was similar in non-iron users and in iron users, whereas the prevalence of iron deficiency was 12.6% in nonusers vs. 4.3% in users, the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia 3.4% in nonusers vs. 0%, in users (p=0.17) In non-iron-supplemented women, S-ferritin levels were inversely correlated with the duration of menstrual bleeding (rs= -0.25, p<0.001) and with the women's assessment of the intensity of menstrual bleeding (r(s)= -0.27, p<0.001), whereas no such correlations were found in iron-supplemented women. The results demonstrate that even moderate daily doses of ferrous iron can influence iron status in women with small iron stores. Women using hormonal contraceptives had menstrual bleeding of significantly shorter duration than those using intrauterine devices (IUD) or other methods. There was a high prevalence of small and absent body iron stores in young women, suggesting that preventive measures should be focused on those women whose menstruation lasts 5 days or longer, who have menstrual bleeding of strong intensity, who use an IUD without gestagen, and who are blood donors. PMID:9760147

  16. Evidence for a weakening ‘dead zone’ in Tokyo Bay over the past 30 years

    Weakened hypoxia in the past 30 years at a dredged area in Tokyo Bay was proven by the existence of amorphous hematite (α-Fe2O3) in sediments. The chemical states of iron in sediments can become a proxy for the scale of anoxia at the time of sedimentation. In 2009, we collected core sediments from a dredged area off Makuhari in Tokyo Bay that is very strongly anoxic in the summer. Every layer of the sediments was analysed by 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy and excess 210Pb dating, and amorphous hematite was identified in the sediments from the 1976–1979, 1986–1989 and 2006–2009 layers. Using an estimate based on the Eh-pH diagram optimized for the sedimental environment, the existence of hematite in the dredged area proves that the scale of hypoxia/anoxia is decreasing, and these results agree well with the observed dissolved oxygen level of the seawater mass.

  17. Post-gastrectomy patients need to be followed up for 20-30 years

    Frank I. Tovey; Michael Hobsley

    2000-01-01

    AIM To investigate the incidence andmanagement of nutritional deficiencies followinga gastrectomy.METHODS A gastrectomy population of 227patients in London was followed up for 30 years after operation to detect and treat nutritional deficiencies.RESULTS By the end of the first decade iron deficiency was the commonest problem. Vitamin B12 deficiency became more important in the second decade. During the third decade both reached equal prevalence, being found in some 90% of the female and 70% of the male residual population. Vitamin D deficiency was a lesser problem, reaching its climax in the second decade. Overall, all women fared worse than men.CONCLUSION The importance of long-term follow-up of gastrectomy patients for iron,Vitamin B12 and Vitamin D deficiencies is emphasised.

  18. Analysis of 30 Years Sea Surface Elevation (sse) Data Obtained From A Global Ocean Model

    Wenzel, M.

    In this presentation the sea surface elevation (SSE) as obtained from a global OGCM will be analysed. The model used is the Hamburg LSG model with a 2 degree hori- zontal resolution, 23 layers in the vertical and a 10 day timestep. The model has a free surface and includes the thermo- and halosteric effects. It is integrated for 50 years forced by monthly NCEP reanalyzes data (1950-1999). The last 30 years of model output are analyzed on regional to global scale to judge the role of the different contributions to the interannual sea level variations as there are: horizontal redistribution of volume (mass), surface freshwater flux (precipitaion- evaporation) and steric effects. On the global scale the surface freshwater flux can clearly be identified as the main contributor, while on regional to local scale it is the steric effect.

  19. Variability of the Surface Meteorological Fields over Eurasia for the Recent 30 Years

    On the basis of the Japanese reanalysis (JRA25) dataset (1979-2008), linear trends, interannual to decadal variability of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation fields over the Eurasian region have been studied. For the recent 30 years there are only significant positive linear trends of SAT in the northwestern part of the Eurasia/eastern Asia in winter and central Europe in summer. Areas with significant negative trends of SAT are absent. For precipitation field there are no significant tendencies except for the significantly positive area over England both in winter and in summer time. In winter, there are two areas with the opposite SLP tendencies: insignificant negative (to the north of 45-50N) and significant positive (to the south of 45-50N) one. These trends could be accompanied by the corresponding tendencies bee-hive reproduction and honey production in different regions of Ukraine. Space-time patterns of the first, second and third EOF of the fields under study are mainly determined by the NAO and in the less extent by the SO (only in spring-summer). It was found that the leading modes become more contributive over the Eurasia for the last 30 years comparing with NCEP data for the previous period (1950-2001). It could imply that an internal signal of the ocean-atmosphere system, which determines space-time patterns over Eurasia, has arisen. Intercomparison of the space-time EOF patterns between JRA25 and NCEP (1950-2001) re-analyses show that in autumn, winter and spring the first 3-4 corresponding time coefficients stay at the same order (coefficient correlations between them are significant), while in summer such correspondence in order of modes is changed. (author)

  20. Causes of admission of young adult 18-30 years old in Intensive Care Unit

    Dimitrios Tziallas

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Admission of young adult in Intensive Care Unit (ICU consists a complex phenomenon with various dimensions.The aim of the present study was to explore the causes of admission in Intensive Care Unit of young adult 18-30 years old according to their demographic variables.Method and material: The sample of the present study consisted of individuals’ age 18-30 years old that were hospitalized in Intensive Care Unit during 2005-07. Data was collected by the use of a specially designed clinical protocol which besides the demographic data included variables related to the causes of admission, the duration of treatment as well as the outcome of the disease. For the analysis of data the statistical packet SPSS v.13 was used and the method x2.Results: 74,9% of the sample studied was men and the 25,1% women. Regarding nationality, 78,4% were Greek whereas 21,6% were foreigners. The fist reason of admission in ICU was road accidents with percentage 59,4%, pathological problems followed with 14,1%, the post-operative period with 9,8%, work accidents with 5%, criminal actions with 4,2%, suicide attempt with 4% and the use of drugs with 3,5%. The statistical analysis of data showed that : regarding the relation of admission to marital status and occupation, students, private employees and free-lancers who were not married were more likely to be involved in road accident, p<0,001. The foreigners were admitted more frequently because of work accidents and criminal actions with statistical significant difference compared to Greeks, p<0,001, respectively. On the contrary, Greeks admitted less frequently because of suicide and pathological problems with statistical significant difference compared to foreigners, p<0,001, respectively.Conclusions: Social and demographic variables significantly affect admission of young in Intensive Care Unit.

  1. A Bibliographic Study of Drug Abuse Research during last 30 years in Iran

    Afarin Rahimi Movaghar

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the produced science has been significantly increased in the field of drug abuse, globally. The objective of this study was to assess the bibliographic aspects of the science produced in Iran on drug abuse in the last 30 years. All scientific papers published from Iran in a 30-year period (1973-2002 in national as well as international scientific journals were assessed for this study. These papers are indexed in the database for Iranian Mental Health Researches, called IranPsych. The total number of 218 papers on drug and drug abuse were found and assessed by six psychiatrists and psychologists with good inter-rater reliability. About half of these papers were published in the last two years. About half of the papers have been published in the Persian medical journals. One-third have been published in international journals. Overall, 449 authors contributed to the 218 published papers from whom 80 percent had only one paper. Half of the papers were written by only 15 authors (3.3 percent. Most of the authors were Medical Doctors and from Medical Universities. None of the researches was received financial support from pharmacologic industries. This study shows that in recent years, the increase in the publication of the researches conducted on drug abuse has been significant. Nevertheless, according to the high prevalence of drug abuse problem in Iran and improvements in the scientific, as well as executive structures, the whole scientific output is insignificant. The findings guide us to a more systematic approach toward training of researchers and promotion of resaerch in this area. Moreover, more active involvement of social scientists and publication of their research findings are recommended.

  2. A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

    2016-04-01

    An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between

  3. Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

    Réis, Délia Canha Gouveia

    2014-01-01

    Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existen...

  4. Intense events of rainfalls in Piemonte

    A. Piano

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of studying the precipitations recorded in a large number of meteorological stations in Piemonte led us to analyse what has happened in the last century. A comparison between periods of 10-20 years, using an arbitrary index of rainfall, shows an increase in intense events in the last 20 years though we can observe a general reduction, in absolute value, of the quantity of rain. It is shown that, in the last 30 years, there has been a change in the granulometric distribution of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM which, in standard conditions, might become Condensation Nuclei (CN. This might have infl uenced condensation phenomenon, causing a greater frequency of intense events.

  5. Antihistamines and driving ability: Evidence from 30 years Dutch on-road driving research

    Verster, J.C.; Van De Loo, A.J.A.E.; Garssen, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Since all antihistamines are capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier, they may also cause sedation which may impair daily activities such as driving a car. The purpose of this review was to examine the effects of antihistamines on driving ability. Method: A literature search revealed

  6. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and Charts the Future | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    ... of this page please turn JavaScript on. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and ... me to imagine a world without the National Library of Medicine." Photo courtesy of NIH NLM Director ...

  7. 30 years of reactor operation of the TRIGA reactor in Vienna

    The TRIGA reactor Vienna first went critical on March 7th 1962 at 12.04 p.m. with 57 Al-clad fuel elements. Since this time the reactor operated without major undesired shut down as students training and education reactor. Until May 1 1992 it has produced 340 MWd of power. About 90 % of the operation schedule is at maximum power level of 250 kW. Pulsing is possible up to 250 MW, until now totally 1186 pulses have been shot. Since about ten years pulse operation has diminished. Only 200 pulses have been carried out since 1980. During the last 30 years 3 reactor instrumentations have been installed, the latest one in July 1992. Two rotary specimen racks have been used during this period; presently the reactor is operated without rotary specimen rack. The experimental facilities are intensively used, all four beam tubes and the thermal column are used for solid state-, neutron- and low temperature physics experiments. Two neutron radiography facilities are installed in the thermal column and in the former experimental tank which has been converted to an irradiation channel. The core is composed of 55 old Al-clad fuel elements together with 14 SST elements and 9 FLIP elements, totally 78 fuel elements. This shows that 70 % of the core is composed of 30 year old Al-clad elements. Only 10 fuel elements have been permanently removed due to damage and are stored in a wet storage facility. Throughout the past three decades the TRIGA reactor Vienna operated without any major problems. Some components had to be replaced due to failure or ageing, but none of these problems can be considered as unacceptable for further operation. On the other hand, the operation of the TRIGA reactor Vienna together with other associated facilities like two accelerators, a helium-liquefaction plant, several x-ray facilities etc. resulted in approximately 600 engineering diploma 200 Ph.D. doctorate 3000 scientific publications in international journals or at conferences The institute's staff is

  8. A probabilistic approach for estimating return periods of extreme annual rainfall in different cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPT), Pakistan

    Northern part of Pakistan had experienced heavy rainfall in 2010 which caused flooding in Pakistan. Statistical distributions are employed to analyze extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of KPK. Gumbel maximum and GEV distribution are used to calculate return period of extreme rainfall in different cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The analysis shows that different cities of KPK have 20-years return period for receiving more than 100 mm daily rainfall. While they have 50-years return period for receiving more than 120 mm daily rainfall. (author)

  9. Probability and variability analysis of rainfall characteristics of Dinhata in Koch Behar district of West Bengal

    Jayanta Das

    2012-01-01

    The historical daily rainfall data for the period of 40 years (1972-2011) of Dinhata in Koch Behar district of W.B. were analyzed to know weekly, monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal rainfall variability and probabilities at different level for suitable crop planning. The overall mean annual rainfall was 2909.88 mm, with standard deviation 658.39 mm and coefficient of variation 22.62 %. The annual rainfall of 2800.5 mm with 105 rainy days and 2487.2 mm rainfall and 91 rainy days may be expec...

  10. A 30 Year Old Man with Fever and Indolent Soft Tissue Masses

    Wissam Zaeeter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Multifocal Skeletal Tuberculosis (MSTB is a rare presentation of skeletal tuberculosis. The indolent nature of this condition often leads to delayed or missed diagnosis, sometimes with devastating consequences for the patient. In order to provide meaningful clinical information and to highlight pitfalls in diagnosis of MFST, we present a case of MSTB. A review of this condition is included for broader coverage. Approach: A 30 year old immune-competent male patient with a 1 year history of indolent soft tissue masses on the chest wall overlying the sternum and the ribs. CAT scan of the chest showed multiple lytic bony lesions involving the ribs, sternum and vertebrae that mimicked metastatic cancer. Fine needle aspiration of the lesion revealed AFB and granulomas. Culture of the aspirated material grew mycobacterium tuberculosis and a diagnosis of MSTB was made. Results: A diagnosis of MSTB was made and anti-tuberculous therapy was initiated. Conclusion: This case indicated that multi-focal skeletal tuberculosis may develop in immune-competent patients without overt pulmonary involvement. From our experience along with previously reported data, MSTB should be suspected in patients from endemic areas who present with multiple skeletal bony lesions. Appropriate management and therapy are essentials for cure and to prevent complications.

  11. All-cause mortality and radar exposure among french navy personnel: a 30 years cohort study

    To improve operational performance in a modern navy force, radiofrequency (RF) and microwaves emitting devices are widely used. It has been suggested that exposure to electromagnetic fields could be associated with greater health hazards and higher mortality. The all-cause mortality of 39488 militaries of the French navy forces was studied over the period 1975-2001 with a cohort epidemiological study. They served from 1975 until 1995. In a first step, the mortality of radar exposed militaries was compared to a control group formed by militaries who served during the same period in the same environment but without radar exposure. Administrative procedures for identifying militaries and their vital status were equivalent in the radar and the control groups. The age standardized mortality ratio in the radar navy personnel was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.54-0.90). In professional militaries, no difference in mortality ratio was found according to duration of estimated exposure. During a 30 years period of observation, we found no increase in all-cause mortality in the French navy personnel who were close to radar equipments

  12. The virtual brain: 30 years of video-game play and cognitive abilities

    Andrew James Latham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Forty years have passed since video-games were first made widely available to the public and subsequently playing games has become a favourite past-time for many. Players continuously engage with dynamic visual displays with success contingent on the time-pressured deployment, and flexible allocation, of attention as well as precise bimanual movements. Evidence to date suggests that both brief and extensive exposure to video-game play can result in a broad range of enhancements to various cognitive faculties that generalize beyond the original context. Despite promise, video-game research is host to a number of methodological issues that require addressing before progress can be made in this area. Here an effort is made to consolidate the past 30 years of literature examining the effects of video-game play on cognitive faculties and, more recently, neural systems. Future work is required to identify the mechanism that allows the act of video-game play to generate such a broad range of generalized enhancements.

  13. Lessons learnt over 30 years of air filtration in the nuclear industry

    The more than 30 years since the inception of the High Efficiency Particulate Air filters (HEPA) provide an incredible story. The filter's application to nuclear air cleaning and reciprocal effect on nuclear programme upon its development is even more interesting. The HEPA filter provided the capacity needed to intercept extremely small particulate matter in the airstreams of nuclear plants and laboratories. When some of the particulate matter potentially might be plutonium or other alpha radiation bearing particles in the air exhausted to the environment, the critical importance of the filter becomes obvious. From a crude and weak initial concept, the HEPA filter has developed into the backbone of particulate air cleaning for nuclear ends and has become most essential to environmental cleaning for other industrial pursuits as well. In the nuclear industry, High Efficiency Particulate Air filters (HEPA) were the need for the containment of radioactive aerosols within the nuclear facilities. Air filtration theory has been very important in the development of HEPA filters. The early air filtration theories model air filters as the air flow around single fibres and the particle capture by these single fibres. The single fibre theories included the interference effect of neighbouring fibres by using cell flow models. Equations were derived to describe particle capture efficiency as function of system variables (air flow temperature and pressure), particle variables (size, density...) and filter characteristics (fibre diameter, fibre volume fraction, filter thickness...).

  14. Noncancer mortality based on the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb survivors registry over 30 years, 1968-1997

    The relation of radiation exposure with noncancer mortality was examined on 44,514 atomic bomb survivors (17,935 males, 26,579 females, and mean age 22.8±15.7 yrs at the time of bombing) registered at Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, based on mortality follow-up over 30 years, 1968-1997. Noncancer mortality was significantly related to radiation dose with relative risk of 1.06 at 1 Sv radiation dose, although weaker than the dose response in solid cancer mortality. The significant dose responses were observed especially in circulatory disease, stroke and urinary organ disease, and suggestive dose response in pneumonia. The temporal pattern in dose response by age at the time of bombing indicated that the relative risk of noncancer mortality was higher with follow-up period, which is contrary to a decreasing dose response in solid cancer mortality with follow-up period. The tendency was remarkable in those survivors younger at the time of bombing. These findings suggest that the significant radiation risk observed in noncancer mortality might increase as the proportion of younger survivors among atomic bomb survivors increases. (author)

  15. Disability-Free Life Expectancy Over 30 Years: A Growing Female Disadvantage in the US Population

    Wolf, Douglas A.; Spillman, Brenda C.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To examine changes in active life expectancy in the United States over 30 years for older men and women (aged ≥ 65 years). Methods. We used the 1982 and 2004 National Long Term Care Survey and the 2011 National Health and Aging Trends Study to estimate age-specific mortality and disability rates, the overall chances of survival and of surviving without disability, and years of active life for men and women. Results. For older men, longevity has increased, disability has been postponed to older ages, disability prevalence has fallen, and the percentage of remaining life spent active has increased. However, for older women, small longevity increases have been accompanied by even smaller postponements in disability, a reversal of a downward trend in moderate disability, and stagnation of active life as a percentage of life expectancy. As a consequence, older women no longer live more active years than men, despite their longer lives. Conclusions. Neither a compression nor expansion of late-life disability is inevitable. Public health measures directed at older women to postpone disability may be needed to offset impending long-term care pressures related to population aging. PMID:26985619

  16. Food irradiation - after 30 years, where do we stand: A government perspective

    The use of irradiation to improve the safety, protect the nutritional benefits, and preserve the quality of fresh and processed foods is a well established and proven technology. Over the past 30 years, the United States Government has invested in the science of confirm safety and in the technology to show application. The United States Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration have approved sources of ionizing radiation for the treatment of foods, and their application to most meats, fruits, vegetables, and spices. Despite the value of this technology to the food industry and to the health and welfare of the public, only minimal application of this technology occurs. This underscorces the importantce of increasing the public's understanding of radiation risks relative to other hazards. Accordingly, the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination of the Executive Office of the President has made recommendations for the creation of a centralized National Radiation Information Center that would work closely with Federal departments and agencies in responding to public queries about radiation issues and Federal programs. (orig.)

  17. RADIATION CONDITIONS IN KALUGA REGION 30 YEARS AFTER CHERNOBYL NPP ACCIDENT

    A. G. Ashitko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes radiation conditions in the Kaluga region 30 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The Chernobyl NPP accident caused radioactive contamination of nine Kaluga region territories: Duminichsky, Zhizdrinsky, Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kozelsky, Ludinovsky, Meshchovsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts. Radioactive fallout was the strongest in three southern districts: Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky, over there cesium-137 contamination density is from 1 to 15Ci/km. According to the Russian Federation Government Order in 2015 there are 300 settlements (S in the radioactive contamination zone, including 14 settlements with caesium-137 soil contamination density from 5 to 15 Ci/ km2 and 286 settlements with the contamination density ranging from 1 to 5 Ci/km2. In the first years after the Chernobyl NPP accident in Kaluga region territories, contaminated with caesium-137, there were introduced restrictive land usage, were carried out agrochemical activities (ploughing, mineral fertilizer dressing, there was toughened laboratory radiation control over the main doze-forming foodstuff. All these measures facilitated considerable decrease of caesium-137 content in local agricultural produce. Proceeding from the achieved result, in 2002 there took place the transition to more tough requirements SanPiN 2.3.2.1078-01. Analysis of investigated samples from Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts demonstrated that since 2005 meat samples didn’t exceed the standard values, same for milk samples since 2007. Till the present time, the use of wild-growing mushrooms, berries and wild animals meat involves radiation issues. It was demonstrated that average specific activity of caesium-137 in milk samples keeps decreasing year after year. Long after the Chernobyl NPP accident, the main products forming internal irradiation doses in population are the wild-growing mushrooms and berries. Population average annual

  18. Recurrent ectopic pancreatitis of the jejunum and mesentery over a 30-year period

    John CT Wong; Charlotte Robinson; Edward C Jones; Alison Harris; Charles Zwirewich; Robert Wakefield; Richard K Simons; Eric M Yoshida

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ectopic pancreas is defined as pancreatic tissue found outside its usual anatomical position, with no ductal or vascular communication with the native pancreas. We describe a case of ectopic pancreas of the small bowel and mesentery causing recurrent episodes of pancreatitis, initially suspected on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and confirmed on histological review of the resection. METHODS: A 67-year-old woman presented with clinical symptoms and biochemical evidence of pancreatitis. She had similar episodes over the past 30 years with unrevealing investi-gations, and was concluded to have idiopathic pancreatitis. She underwent CT and MRCP, with findings suggestive of ectopic pancreas, a diagnosis confirmed on histology of the resection. RESULTS: MRCP identified a mass in the proximal small bowel mesentery isointense to the native pancreas, with a small duct draining into a proximal jejunal loop. The resected specimen consisted of normal parenchyma with lobulated acinar tissue with scattered islets of Langerhans, an occasional ductular structure, and admixed areas of adipose tissue. The patient remained asymptomatic with normal biochemistry six months post-operatively. CONCLUSION: In an individual with abdominal pain, elevated serum amylase/lipase, but imaging findings of a normal native pancreas, ectopic pancreatitis should be considered, and can be evaluated by CT and MRCP.

  19. Interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport: A revisit based on 30 year expendable bathythermograph data

    Liu, Qin-Yan; Feng, Ming; Wang, Dongxiao; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-12-01

    Based on 30 year repeated expendable bathythermograph (XBT) deployments between Fremantle, Western Australia, and the Sunda Strait, Indonesia, from 1984 to 2013, interannual variability of geostrophic transport of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its relationships with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are investigated. The IOD induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the Sumatra-Java coast of Indonesia, and ENSO induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the northwest coast of Australia, both influencing interannual variations of the ITF transport. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niña phase and weaker during El Niño phase, with the Niño3.4 index leading the ITF variability by 7 months. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the IOD to a certain extent offset the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña, due to the covarying IOD variability with ENSO. The ITF geostrophic transport experiences a strengthening trend of about 1 Sv every 10 years over the study period, which is mostly due to a response to the strengthening of the trade winds in the Pacific during the climate change hiatus period. Decadal variations of the temperature-salinity relationships need to be considered when estimating the geostrophic transport of the ITF using XBT data.

  20. From Energy Audits to Home Performance: 30 Years of Articles in Home Energy Magazine

    Meier, Alan

    2014-08-11

    Home Energy Magazine has been publishing articles about residential energy efficiency for 30 years. Its goal has been to disseminate technically reliable and neutral information to the practitioners, that is, professionals in the business of home energy efficiency. The articles, editorials, letters, and advertisements are a kind of window on the evolution of energy conservation technologies, policies, and organizations. Initially, the focus was on audits and simple retrofits, such as weatherstripping and insulation. Instrumentation was sparse sometimes limited to a ruler to measure depth of attic insulation and a blower door was exotic. CFLs were heavy, awkward bulbs which might, or might not, fit in a fixture. Saving air conditioning energy was not a priority. Solar energy was only for the most adventurous. Thirty years on, the technologies and business have moved beyond just insulating attics to the larger challenge of delivering home performance and achieving zero net energy. This shift reflects the success in reducing space heating energy and the need to create a profitable industry by providing more services. The leading edge of the residential energy services market is becoming much more sophisticated, offering both efficiency and solar systems. The challenge is to continue providing relevant and reliable information in a transformed industry and a revolutionized media landscape.

  1. The SLC28 (CNT) and SLC29 (ENT) nucleoside transporter families: a 30-year collaborative odyssey.

    Young, James D

    2016-06-15

    Specialized nucleoside transporter (NT) proteins are required for passage of nucleosides and hydrophilic nucleoside analogues across biological membranes. Physiologic nucleosides serve as central salvage metabolites in nucleotide biosynthesis, and nucleoside analogues are used as chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of cancer and antiviral diseases. The nucleoside adenosine modulates numerous cellular events via purino-receptor cell signalling pathways. Human NTs are divided into two structurally unrelated protein families: the SLC28 concentrative nucleoside transporter (CNT) family and the SLC29 equilibrative nucleoside transporter (ENT) family. Human CNTs are inwardly directed Na(+)-dependent nucleoside transporters found predominantly in intestinal and renal epithelial and other specialized cell types. Human ENTs mediate bidirectional fluxes of purine and pyrimidine nucleosides down their concentration gradients and are ubiquitously found in most, possibly all, cell types. Both protein families are evolutionarily old: CNTs are present in both eukaryotes and prokaryotes; ENTs are widely distributed in mammalian, lower vertebrate and other eukaryote species. This mini-review describes a 30-year collaboration with Professor Stephen Baldwin to identify and understand the structures and functions of these physiologically and clinically important transport proteins. PMID:27284054

  2. 137Cs use in estimating soil erosion: 30 years of research

    Significant amounts of fallout 137Cs from nuclear weapons tests were introduced to the landscape during the 1950s and 1960s. Once 137Cs reaches the soil surface it is strongly and quickly adsorbed by clay particles, and is essentially nonexchangeable in most environments. Thus, 137Cs becomes and effective tracer of the movement of soil particles across the landscape. Over the past 30 years, researchers have shown that 137Cs can be used to study soil movement. Early work used empirical relationships between soil loss and 137Cs loss to estimate erosion. This was followed by the development of proportional and theoretical models to relate 137Cs movement and soil redistribution. Most of the problems related to the 137Cs technique are the same as those encountered with other techniques (i.e., sampling, measurement). The 137Cs technique can make actual measurements of soil loss and redeposition in fields, fostering the formulation of better plans to conserve the quality of the landscape. This paper reviews the development of the 137Cs technique to show how it can be used to understand erosion and soil movement on the landscape. (author)

  3. Modeling Saturn's Giant Storms: Water, Ammonia, and the 30-Year Periodicity

    Li, C.; Ingersoll, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    A giant planet-encircling storm occurred on Saturn on Dec. 5th, 2010 at planetographic latitude 37.7oN. It produced intense lightning, created enormous cloud disturbances and wrapped around the planet in 6 months. Six such storms, called Great White Spots, have erupted since 1876. They have alternated between mid-latitudes and the equator at intervals ranging from 20 to 30 years. The reason for the intermittent explosion is hitherto unclear and there are no similar storms on brother Jupiter. Here we describe the water-loading-mechanism, which could suppress moist convection for decades due to the larger molecular weight of water in a hydrogen-helium atmosphere. We show that this mechanism requires the deep water vapor mixing ratio to be greater than 1.0%. Observations imply that Saturn's atmosphere is more enriched in water than Jupiter, which could explain why Saturn has such storms and Jupiter does not. We further use a two-dimensional axisymmetric dynamic model and a top-cooling convective adjustment scheme to connect our theory to observation. We show that for a deep water mixing ratio of 1.1%, the ammonia vapor is depleted down to 6 bars, the tropospheric warming is about 6 K, and the interval between two consecutive storms at one place is about 70 years. These values are confirmed by both ground-based and spacecraft observations.

  4. Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

    Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

    1997-11-01

    The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

  5. Divergent Arctic-Boreal Vegetation Changes between North America and Eurasia over the Past 30 Years

    Arindam Samanta

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Arctic-Boreal region—mainly consisting of tundra, shrub lands, and boreal forests—has been experiencing an amplified warming over the past 30 years. As the main driving force of vegetation growth in the north, temperature exhibits tight coupling with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI—a proxy to photosynthetic activity. However, the comparison between North America (NA and northern Eurasia (EA shows a weakened spatial dependency of vegetation growth on temperature changes in NA during the past decade. If this relationship holds over time, it suggests a 2/3 decrease in vegetation growth under the same rate of warming in NA, while the vegetation response in EA stays the same. This divergence accompanies a circumpolar widespread greening trend, but 20 times more browning in the Boreal NA compared to EA, and comparative greening and browning trends in the Arctic. These observed spatial patterns of NDVI are consistent with the temperature record, except in the Arctic NA, where vegetation exhibits a similar long-term trend of greening to EA under less warming. This unusual growth pattern in Arctic NA could be due to a lack of precipitation velocity compared to the temperature velocity, when taking velocity as a measure of northward migration of climatic conditions.

  6. Radiation induced skin cancer the chest wall 30 years later from breast cancer operation

    Miyamoto, Kouji; Togawa, Tamotsu; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Matsunami, Hidetoshi; Ikeda, Tsuneko [Matsunami General Hospital, Kasamatsu, Gifu (Japan); Matsuo, Youichi

    1998-10-01

    This paper describes the skin cancer on the frontal chest wall induced by postoperative irradiation 30 years later from mastectomy. The patients was a 62-year-old woman, who received mastectomy of the right breast cancer (invasive ductal carcinoma, comedo type) at 31 years old, and received the postoperative radiotherapy of total 11,628 rad over 38 times. On the first medical examination in author`s hospital, the patient had an ulcer of about 10 cm diameter and was diagnosed the radiation induced skin cancer (well differentiated squamous cell carcinoma) in the biopsy. Because of the general condition of the patient was extremely bad and the skin cancer had highly developed, the excision was thought to be impossible. The radiotherapy (16 Gy) and combined local chemotherapy by OK 432 and Bleomycin were performed. In spite of the short term treatment, these therapies were effective on the reduction of the tumor size and the hemostasis, and brought the patient the improvement of QOL. The general condition of the patient improved to be stable and she recovered enough to go out from the hospital for 6 months. After 10 months, she showed anorexia and dyspnea and died after about 1 year from the admission. The present case is extremely rare, and it is required the radical therapy like the excision of chest wall at early stage. (K.H.)

  7. Aetiology of maxillofacial fractures: a review of published studies during the last 30 years.

    Boffano, Paolo; Kommers, Sofie C; Karagozoglu, K Hakki; Forouzanfar, Tymour

    2014-12-01

    The epidemiology of facial trauma may vary widely across countries (and even within the same country), and is dependent on several cultural and socioeconomic factors. We know of few reviews of published reports that have considered the sex distribution and aetiology of maxillofacial trauma throughout the world. The aim of this review was to discuss these aspects as they have been presented in papers published during the last 30 years. We made a systematic review of papers about the epidemiology of maxillofacial trauma that were published between January 1980 and December 2013 and identified 69 studies from Africa (n=9), North America and Brazil (n=6), Asia (n=36), Europe (n=16), and Oceania (n=2). In all the studies men outnumbered women, the ratio usually being more than 2:1. In American, African, and Asian studies road traffic crashes were the predominant cause. In European studies the aetiology varied, with assaults and road traffic crashes being the most important factors. In Oceania assaults were the most important. A comparison of the incidence of maxillofacial trauma of different countries together with a knowledge of different laws (seat belts for drivers, helmets for motocyclists, speed limits, and protection worn during sports and at work) is crucial to allow for improvement in several countries. To our knowledge this paper is the first attempt to study and compare the aetiologies of maxillofacial trauma. PMID:25218316

  8. Is SfM photogrammetry really the tool we've waited 30 years for?

    Chandler, Jim; Micheletti, Natan; Lane, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    SFM photogrammetry has evolved rapidly in the last few years, to the point where it is beginning to surpass terrestrial laser scanning for capturing 3-D models of natural surfaces. The ability to generate high resolution digital terrain models using just a consumer grade digital camera, or even a smart phone, is an important advance. The fact that this can be achieved at a range of scales and resolutions and from a variety of platforms, whilst using software which is freely available, appears almost incredible. This invited presentation seeks to place SfM photogrammetry in its proper historical context, by demonstrating just how rapidly techniques have evolved over the last 30 years. However, it is important to look forward and help ensure that future use is effective, even if spatial measurement expertise is limited. Consequently, the presentation will also demonstrate just how well-established lessons learnt in the past continue to remain important, particularly if accurate spatial data is desired. The application of SfM to a range of case studies will help to demonstrate the importance of scene geometry and accurate camera calibration and modelling. In addition, the establishment of external control remains critical for determining true change and the provision of independent checkpoints provides important verification of accuracies actually achieved. Recognition of these traditional photogrammetric principles and well-established practices should help ensure that expectations are both realistic and can be fulfilled, even for a new generation of non-expert users.

  9. A glimpse into 30 years of struggle against prostitution by the women's liberation movement in Norway.

    Strøm, Agnete

    2009-11-01

    The Women's Front of Norway has worked against prostitution for 30 years. In 2008 a law criminalizing the purchase of a sexual act was passed in Norway. This article describes the struggle and the main actors in lobbying for the law. In the 1980s, we raised awareness of prostitution and trafficking in women in a study of the pornography industry, and targeted sex tourist agencies organizing trips to the Philippines and Thailand. In the 1990s, our members in trade unions got their unions to take a stand against prostitution and against legalizing prostitution as "work". In 2006, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions Congress supported a law criminalizing the buyer of a sexual act; this had a strong impact on the centre-left coalition Government. We invited leaders of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women to Norway to meet parliamentarians and trade unionists, and kept up the pressure. From the start, the focus was on ensuring that the situation for women in prostitution was ameliorated. Our demands have been for better social services and job training. Street prostitution, especially in Oslo, has been curbed, and a growth in the indoor market has not been reported. Our next task is participating in the awareness campaign "Buying Sex is not a Sport" in connection with the Soccer World Cup, South Africa, 2010. PMID:19962635

  10. Is a chaotic multi-fractal approach for rainfall possible?

    Sivakumar, Bellie

    2001-04-01

    Applications of the ideas gained from fractal theory to characterize rainfall have been one of the most exciting areas of research in recent times. The studies conducted thus far have nearly unanimously yielded positive evidence regarding the existence of fractal behaviour in rainfall. The studies also revealed the insufficiency of the mono-fractal approaches to characterizing the rainfall process in time and space and, hence, the necessity for multi-fractal approaches. The assumption behind multi-fractal approaches for rainfall is that the variability of the rainfall process could be directly modelled as a stochastic (or random) turbulent cascade process, since such stochastic cascade processes were found to generically yield multi-fractals. However, it has been observed recently that multi-fractal approaches might provide positive evidence of a multi-fractal nature not only in stochastic processes but also in, for example, chaotic processes. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the presence of both chaotic and fractal behaviours in the rainfall process to consider the possibility of using a chaotic multi-fractal approach for rainfall characterization. For this purpose, daily rainfall data observed at the Leaf River basin in Mississippi are studied, and only temporal analysis is carried out. The autocorrelation function, the power spectrum, the empirical probability distribution function, and the statistical moment scaling function are used as indicators to investigate the presence of fractal, whereas the presence of chaos is investigated by employing the correlation dimension method. The results from the fractal identification methods indicate that the rainfall data exhibit multi-fractal behaviour. The correlation dimension method yields a low dimension, suggesting the presence of chaotic behaviour. The existence of both multi-fractal and chaotic behaviours in the rainfall data suggests the possibility of a chaotic multi-fractal approach for

  11. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds more likely to link to hepatitis C virus care: an opportunity to decrease transmission.

    Young, K L; Huang, W; Horsburgh, C R; Linas, B P; Assoumou, S A

    2016-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection incidence among 18- to 30-year-olds is increasing and guidelines recommend treatment of active injection drug users to limit transmission. We aimed to : measure linkage to HCV care among 18- to 30-year-olds and identify factors associated with linkage; compare linkage among 18- to 30-year-olds to that of patients >30 years. We used the electronic medical record at an urban safety net hospital to create a retrospective cohort with reactive HCV antibody between 2005 and 2010. We report seroprevalence and demographics of seropositive patients, and used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with linkage to HCV care. We defined linkage as having evidence of HCV RNA testing after reactive antibody. Thirty two thousand four hundred and eighteen individuals were tested, including 8873 between 18 and 30 years. The seropositivity rate among those ages 18-30 was 10%. In multivariate analysis, among those 18-30, diagnosis location (Outpatient vs Inpatient/ED) (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.28-2.49) and number of visits after diagnosis (OR 5.30, 95% CI 3.91-7.19) were associated with higher odds of linking to care. When we compared linkage in patients ages 18-30 to that among those older than 30, patients in the 18-30 years age group were more likely to link to HCV care than those in the older cohort even when controlling for gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, birthplace, diagnosis location and duration of follow-up. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds are more likely to link to HCV care than their older counterparts. During the interferon-free treatment era, there is an opportunity to prevent further HCV transmission in this population. PMID:26572798

  12. Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

    Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily

  13. 30-year International Pediatric Craniofacial Surgery Partnership: Evolution from the “Third World” Forward

    Swanson, Jordan W.; Skirpan, Jan; Stanek, Beata; Kowalczyk, Maciej

    2016-01-01

    Background: Craniofacial diseases constitute an important component of the surgical disease burden in low- and middle-income countries. The consideration to introduce craniofacial surgery into such settings poses different questions, risks, and challenges compared with cleft or other forms of plastic surgery. We report the evolution, innovations, and challenges of a 30-year international craniofacial surgery partnership. Methods: We retrospectively report a partnership between surgeons at the Uniwersytecki Szpital Dzieciecy in Krakow, Poland, and a North American craniofacial surgeon. We studied patient conditions, treatment patterns, and associated complications, as well as program advancements and limitations as perceived by surgeons, patient families, and hospital administrators. Results: Since partnership inception in 1986, the complexity of cases performed increased gradually, with the first intracranial case performed in 1995. In the most recent 10-year period (2006–2015), 85 patients have been evaluated, with most common diagnoses of Apert syndrome, Crouzon syndrome, and single-suture craniosynostosis. In the same period, 55 major surgical procedures have been undertaken, with LeFort III midface distraction, posterior vault distraction, and frontoorbital advancement performed most frequently. Key innovations have been the employment of craniofacial distraction osteogenesis, the use of Internet communication and digital photography, and increased understanding of how craniofacial morphology may improve in the absence of surgical intervention. Ongoing challenges include prohibitive training pathways for pediatric plastic surgeons, difficulty in coordinating care with surgeons in other institutions, and limited medical and material resources. Conclusion: Safe craniofacial surgery can be introduced and sustained in a resource-limited setting through an international partnership. PMID:27200233

  14. Direction of reprocessing technology development based on 30 years operation of Tokai reprocessing plant

    Full text: Full text: Recent global interest focuses the possibility of recycling of spent fuel with advanced fast reactor fuel cycle system. Goal of closed fuel cycle is to achieve the maximum use of uranium resources and minimum disposal of waste by multi recycle of TRU as a competitive nuclear energy system. The future reprocessing and fuel fabrication system should be synchronized completely with the advanced reactor system and waste treatment and disposal back-end system to complete closed fuel cycle. To realize such system, current reprocessing system should be changed to handle Pu-U-Minor Actinide with more reductions in the cost and less waste volume, as well as an inherent proliferation resistance. For the successful industrialization of advanced reprocessing technology, it is necessary to combine three key elements of R and D efforts, engineering base demonstration and experiences of plant operation. Tokai Reprocessing Facilities licensed a maximum capacity of 0.7tHM/day began a hot operation in 1977 and reprocessed l,100tHM U02 spent fuel and 20tHM ATR-MOX with a continuous technological improvements under IAEA full scope safeguards. With 30 years experience, candidate of key technologies proposed for realizing the next advanced reprocessing are as follows: 1) Simplified co-extraction process of Pu-Np-U by using multistage centrifugal extractors in stead of pulsed columns; 2) Corrosion free components in acid condition by using corrosion resistant refractory alloys and ceramics; 3) Co-conversion technology to MA containing MOX powder by micro-wave heating method for a short process for MA containing MOX pellets fabrication; 4) Advanced verification of high level radioactive liquid waste combining separation technology of TRU and LLFP elements; 5) Advanced chemical analysis and monitoring system for TRU elements in a plant. These advanced reprocessing technologies will be applied mainly to reprocess the LWR spent fuel accumulated past and future

  15. Spontaneous resolution rates of vesicoureteral reflux in Brazilian children: a 30-year experience

    Miguel Zerati Filho

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We evaluated clinical characteristics of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR in infants in a 30-year period in Brazil with special reference to the relation of renal parenchymal damage to urinary tract infection and gender. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1975 through 2005, 417 girls (81.6% and 94 boys (18.4% with all grades of reflux were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by the worst grade of reflux, maintained on antibiotic prophylaxis and underwent yearly voiding cystourethrography until the reflux was resolved. VUR was considered resolved when a follow-up cystogram demonstrated no reflux. Surgical correction was recommended for those who fail medical therapy, severe renal scarring or persistent VUR. RESULTS: Grades I to V VUR resolved in 87.5%, 77.6%, 52.8%, 12.2% and 4.3%, respectively. Renal scars were present at presentation in 98 patients (19.2%. Neither gender nor bilaterality versus unilaterality was a helpful predictor of resolution. The significant difference was found among the curves using the log rank (p < 0.001 or Wilcoxon (p < 0.001 test. CONCLUSION: Despite the current use of screening prenatal ultrasound, many infants are still diagnosed as having vesicoureteral reflux only after the occurrence of urinary tract infection in our country. Scarring may be associated to any reflux grade and it may be initially diagnosed at any age but half of the scars are noted with higher grades of reflux (IV and V. The incidence of reflux related morbidity in children has significantly diminished over the last three decades.

  16. Spontaneus bilateral pedicle fracture 30 years after Harrington Instrumentation for idiopathic scoliosis: a case report

    Obid Peter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Spontaneous fractures of the spine are a common entity. They usually occur in older people with osteoporosis. This case is presented on account of its rarity. To the best of the authors' knowledge only one case of an osteoporotic pedicle fracture after Harrington Instrumentation has been described before. Case presentation We report the case of a 46-year-old Caucasian woman who underwent surgery due to idiopathic scoliosis with a Harrington Instrumentation (T4 to L3 30 years ago. During the operation she was infected with hepatitis C while receiving erythrocyte concentrates and has suffered from liver cirrhosis since then. She presented with a sudden pain in her lower back and paraesthesia in both her legs but no other neurological symptoms. A computed tomography scan showed a bilateral pedicle fracture of L3 and an additional compression fracture of L4. In the first session we performed a dorsal stabilization with massive intraoperative bleeding and a postoperative failure of liver synthesis. In a second session an additional ventral augmentation was done. After the second operation she developed a hepatorenal syndrome. Both operations left the patient in a very critical state which led to a prolonged stay in the intensive care and rehabilitation unit. At her 12-month follow-up visit, she was free of complaints. Conclusion The un-physiological load of the spine after Harrington Instrumentation can lead to osteoporosis due to inactivity even in younger patients. Although these implants are not used anymore one should keep this possibility in mind when dealing with patients who have received Harrington rods in surgical procedures.

  17. Congenital lobar emphysema: 30-year case series in two university hospitals

    Daniele Cristina Cataneo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To review the cases of patients with congenital lobar emphysema (CLE submitted to surgical treatment at two university hospitals over a 30-year period. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of children with CLE undergoing surgical treatment between 1979 and 2009 at the Botucatu School of Medicine Hospital das Clínicas or the Mogi das Cruzes University Hospital. We analyzed data regarding symptoms, physical examination, radiographic findings, diagnosis, surgical treatment, and postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: During the period studied, 20 children with CLE underwent surgery. The mean age at the time of surgery was 6.9 months (range, 9 days to 4 years. All of the cases presented with symptoms at birth or during the first months of life. In all cases, chest X-rays were useful in defining the diagnosis. In cases of moderate respiratory distress, chest CT facilitated the diagnosis. One patient with severe respiratory distress was misdiagnosed with hypertensive pneumothorax and underwent chest tube drainage. Only patients with moderate respiratory distress were submitted to bronchoscopy, which revealed no tracheobronchial abnormalities. The surgical approach was lateral muscle-sparing thoracotomy. The left upper and middle lobes were the most often affected, followed by the right upper lobe. Lobectomy was performed in 18 cases, whereas bilobectomy was performed in 2 (together with bronchogenic cyst resection in 1 of those. No postoperative complications were observed. Postoperative follow-up time was at least 24 months (mean, 60 months, and no late complications were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although CLE is an uncommon, still neglected disease of uncertain etiology, the radiological diagnosis is easily made and surgical treatment is effective.

  18. Plasma focus physics and technology. Overview of 30 years of research in Romania

    At the time of the 11th Conference on Plasma Physics and Applications almost 31 years will have past from the day of the initiation of the first research project on hot and dense plasmas in this country . That project proposed the development of the plasma focus device (PFD) as a hot plasma fusion system. The 30 year period has been divided almost evenly into major stages of the evolution of the plasma focus research in Romania. During the 70's two plasma focus devices (of 4 and 20 kJ) have been built and basic (electromagnetic, optical and spectroscopical) as well as advanced (neutron, ion) diagnostic have been developed. The 80's have been dedicated to an outstanding effort to develop very high power energy sources (peak currents up to 10 MA) for single - shot PFDs, together with quite advanced neutron diagnostic techniques (time - resolved time -of - light, multichannel neutron activation). The successful operation of a neutron - emitting PFD powered by explosive magnetic flux compression generators at the middle of that decade may be considered as one of the most impressive achievements of an audacious research team. During the 90's the plasma focus research was directed towards the development of an intense X-ray source. A laboratory model of a plasma focus X-ray source was built, while adequate diagnostics applicable over an extensive range of photon energies have been developed. As far as perspectives are concerned these will hopefully and optimistically depend both on the new research programmes just launched in Romania, and on the evolution of an international project into which the Romanian plasma focus scientists have put a considerable amount of work during the 90's - the International Centre for Dense Magnetized Plasma now in operation in Warsaw. (author)

  19. A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

    Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

  20. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Chun-ye Wang; Bin Zhou; Bei Huang

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually;the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas;and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was ?0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with imminent environmental

  1. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  2. Social media: the key to health information access for 18- to 30-year-old college students.

    Prybutok, Gayle; Ryan, Sherry

    2015-04-01

    This work examines where 18- to 30-year-old college students seek health information on the Internet and how they determine site and message credibility. Using a qualitative methodology, five focus groups were conducted with 18- to 30-year-old college students, and transcripts were analyzed with MaxQDA text analysis software. The study revealed that 18- to 30-year-old college students have Internet health information source preferences, reasons for seeking health information on the Internet, and message design factors that improve their perception of site and message credibility. We conclude that the Internet and social media show great promise as effective health communication channels for 18- to 30-year-old college students and confirm that preferred Internet/social media sites can be utilized by health educators to present important risk management/disease prevention information to 18- to 30-year-old college students. In addition, message design factors can lend credibility to both sites and the health information delivered there. PMID:25887107

  3. Network design for heavy rainfall analysis

    Rietsch, T.; Naveau, P.; Gilardi, N.; Guillou, A.

    2013-12-01

    The analysis of heavy rainfall distributional properties is a complex object of study in hydrology and climatology, and it is essential for impact studies. In this paper, we investigate the question of how to optimize the spatial design of a network of existing weather stations. Our main criterion for such an inquiry is the capability of the network to capture the statistical properties of heavy rainfall described by the Extreme Value Theory. We combine this theory with a machine learning algorithm based on neural networks and a Query By Committee approach. Our resulting algorithm is tested on simulated data and applied to high-quality extreme daily precipitation measurements recorded in France at 331 weather stations during the time period 1980-2010.

  4. Flooding dynamics in a large low-gradient alluvial fan, the Okavango Delta, Botswana, from analysis and interpretation of a 30-year hydrometric record

    P. Wolski

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains.

  5. Distant outcomes of the Chiari osteotomy 30 years follow up evaluation.

    Piontek, Tomasz; Szulc, Andrzej; Głowacki, Maciej; Strzyzewski, Wojciech

    2006-02-28

    Background. The aim of my paper was to assess distant treatment results of patients who were treated because of hip displasia and the Chiari osteotomy was performed on those patients. Material and methods. I evaluated treatment outcomes of 27 patients who were treated at Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Clinic of Orthopedics, in 1965-1990. The Chiari osteotomy was performed on all patients for hip decenteration or hip subluxation after developmental displasia. 34 hips were evaluated (20 female and 7 male). The average age of patients was 13 years in the moment of the operation. The follow up examination was conducted 10-36 years after the Chiari osteotomy Results. After many years (30 years after the operation on the average), 37% of patients could fit into groups of very good and good results. I could assess the hips before the operation using only parameters marked on anteroposterior films. The radiographs of the hips showed displasia characterized by shallowness and steepness of the acetabulum, an increased apparent neck-corpus angle, low submersion of the femoral head in the acetabulum, and insufficient coverage of the femoral head by the acetabulum. On the radiographs taken one year after the operation I observed very good coverage of the femoral head proved by higher values (above quota) of the Wiberg angle, the Sharp angle, the Heyman and Herndon acetabulum-head indicator. I defined also a course of the osteotomy drafting an osteotomy angle, setting a degree of bone fragments displacement (medialisation), and a height of the osteotomy. Conclusions. 1. The Chiari osteotomy as a hip saving operation allows patients to function in satisfactory clinical conditions for many years. 2. When conducted correctly, the Chiari osteotomy considerably improves femoral head coverage not only in the frontal plane but also in the transverse plane. 3. Too wide osteotomy angle, more than 20 degrees , further than 50% displacement of a distal bone fragment and too low

  6. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  7. Probabilistic completeness assessment of the past 30 years of seismic monitoring in northeastern Italy

    Gentili, S.; Sugan, M.; Peruzza, L.; Schorlemmer, D.

    2011-05-01

    We investigate detection probabilities and recording completeness of the seismic network in northeastern Italy, operated by the OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale) during the years 1977-2007, using the Probability-based Magnitude of Completeness (PMC) method by Schorlemmer and Woessner (2008). Completeness of the dataset is varying in space and time due to the evolution of network geometry, instrumental characteristics, and monitoring and processing strategies over time: this is a common feature for all the regional and national instrumental catalogues that should be properly accounted for in seismicity rate evaluations. For the first time, we quantify with the new PMC method detection probabilities of a regional network operating since the late 70s, also including paper records. PMC is based on empirical data and requires the earthquake catalog containing phase picks, the station locations and on-/off-times, and the attenuation relation used to compute local magnitudes. In the 30-year period, we identified four time windows, roughly corresponding to the main changes in the acquisition system. We reconstructed on-/off-times by merging the available information on instruments with the analysis of inter-pick times at each station. We revised the relationship between duration and local magnitudes as the calibration of duration magnitude demonstrated to be not homogeneous among the different acquisition systems. Moreover, we introduced some constraints on the application of the PMC method to improve its performance for networks with sparse data and show the role of missing events and of temporary networks on regional completeness maps. The results demonstrate that the OGS network is detecting earthquakes completely down to magnitude 1.5 for a large part of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region since the earliest stages of its functionality; the OGS instrumental catalog is therefore the most precise and complete dataset available for this area

  8. Eco-region dependent lengthening of vegetation period over the past 30 years in Europe

    Garonna, I.; De Jong, R.; De Wit, A.; Mücher, C. A.; Schmid, B.; Schaepman, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite observations. As such, LSP plays a key role in understanding the terrestrial carbon budget, as well as the response of terrestrial ecosystems to environmental change. Various studies have highlighted significant increases in vegetation activity over time (i.e. greening) over Europe in recent decades (e.g. Stöckli and Vidale, 2004), associated both with climatic changes and with large-scale human interventions including land-use change (de Jong et al., 2013). In this study, we characterize LSP changes in Europe's eco-regions for the last 30 years. We used the latest version of the 8-km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset (third generation, or NDVI-3g) to retrieve LSP metrics for Europe for the last three decades (1982-2011). Each year of NDVI data was processed using the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm, producing smooth NDVI annual profiles on a pixel-by-pixel basis. In order to derive LSP metrics for each year, namely Start, End and Length of Growing Season, we selected the Midpoint-pixel local threshold method, based on the White et al. (2009) inter-comparison. A landscape-based stratification, using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) (Mücher et al., 2010) allowed us to examine LSP characteristics and trends for the different European eco-regions. We demonstrate significant shifts in LSP metrics over the study period, with a general lengthening of the growing season in Europe of approximately 0.4 days year-1. LSP trends varied significantly between eco-regions, and we discuss potential reasons for these spatially diverse trends. de Jong, R., et al. (2013), Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity, Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1953-1964. Mücher, C. A., J. A. Klijn, D. M. Wascher, and

  9. Mortality of IgA nephropathy patients: a single center experience over 30 years.

    Hajeong Lee

    Full Text Available Research on the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN has focused on renal survival, with little information being available on patient survival. Hence, this investigation aimed to explore long-term patient outcome in IgAN patients. Clinical and pathological characteristics at the time of renal biopsy were reviewed in 1,364 IgAN patients from 1979 to 2008. The outcomes were patient death and end stage renal disease (ESRD progression. Overall, 71 deaths (5.3% and 277 cases of ESRD (20.6% occurred during 13,916 person-years. Ten-, 20-, and 30-year patient survival rates were 96.3%, 91.8%, and 82.7%, respectively. More than 50% patient deaths occurred without ESRD progression. Overall mortality was elevated by 43% from an age/sex-matched general population (GP (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.92. Men had comparable mortality to GP (SMR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.75, but, in women, the mortality rate was double (SMR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.21-3.57. Patients with renal risk factors such as initial renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filgration rate <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2; SMR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.13-2.46, systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg (SMR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.19-2.82 or proteinuria ≥ 1 g/day (SMR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.29 had an elevated mortality rate. Patients with preserved renal function, normotension, and proteinuria <1 g/day, however, had a similar mortality rate to GP. When risk stratification was performed by counting the number of major risk factors present at diagnosis, low-risk IgAN patients had a mortality rate equal to that of GP, whereas high-risk patients had a mortality rate higher than that of GP. This investigation demonstrated that overall mortality in IgAN patients was higher than that of GP. Women and patients with renal risk factors had a higher mortality than that of GP, Therefore, strategies optimized to alleviate major renal risk factors are warranted to reduce patient mortality.

  10. High methane emissions dominated annual greenhouse gas balances 30 years after bog rewetting

    Vanselow-Algan, M.; Schmidt, S. R.; Greven, M.; Fiencke, C.; Kutzbach, L.; Pfeiffer, E.-M.

    2015-07-01

    Natural peatlands are important carbon sinks and sources of methane (CH4). In contrast, drained peatlands turn from a carbon sink to a carbon source and potentially emit nitrous oxide (N2O). Rewetting of peatlands thus potentially implies climate change mitigation. However, data about the time span that is needed for the re-establishment of the carbon sink function by restoration are scarce. We therefore investigated the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) balances of three differently vegetated sites of a bog ecosystem 30 years after rewetting. All three vegetation communities turned out to be sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) ranging between 0.6 ± 1.43 t CO2 ha-2 yr-1 (Sphagnum-dominated vegetation) and 3.09 ± 3.86 t CO2 ha-2 yr-1 (vegetation dominated by heath). While accounting for the different global warming potential (GWP) of CO2, CH4 and N2O, the annual GHG balance was calculated. Emissions ranged between 25 and 53 t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 and were dominated by large emissions of CH4 (22-51 t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1), with highest rates found at purple moor grass (Molinia caerulea) stands. These are to our knowledge the highest CH4 emissions so far reported for bog ecosystems in temperate Europe. As the restored area was subject to large fluctuations in the water table, we assume that the high CH4 emission rates were caused by a combination of both the temporal inundation of the easily decomposable plant litter of purple moor grass and the plant-mediated transport through its tissues. In addition, as a result of the land use history, mixed soil material due to peat extraction and refilling can serve as an explanation. With regards to the long time span passed since rewetting, we note that the initial increase in CH4 emissions due to rewetting as described in the literature is not inevitably limited to a short-term period.

  11. Spatial structure of 60- and 30-year variations of the geomagnetic field according to data of analytical models

    Kalugin, V. I.; Rotanova, N. M.; Golovkov, V. P.

    1984-10-01

    The distribution of the amplitudes and phases of 60-year variations of the geomagnetic field on the earth's surface is obtained on the basis of analytical models. It is shown that the characteristic features or foci of these variations have different configurations and a dissimilar intensity. A global map of the spatial distribution of 30-year variations is also obtained; and a comparison of maps of the 60- and 30-year variations shows that, although the structure of the latter variations is more complex, the characteristic foci of both types of variations are manifested in the same regions.

  12. Long-term rainfall averages for Ireland, 1981-2010

    Walsh, Séamus

    2016-01-01

    Long-Term Averages (LTA) or Climate Normals are 30-year averages of weather elements. They are used to describe the current climate and to place current weather in context. Met Éireann has produced a suite of LTAs covering the period 1981-2010, which have replaced the 1961-1990 LTAs for day-to-day comparison purposes. LTAs of monthly rainfall and days of rain greater than or equal to 0.2mm, 1mm and 10mm have been compiled for over 750 locations. Using these data and data for Nor...

  13. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

    Vipul K. Dabhi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.

  14. Trends in extreme rainfall events in Benin (West Africa), 1960-2000

    Hountondji, Yvon; De Longueville, Florence; Ozer, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Global dataset of derived indicators has been compiled to clarify whether the frequency and / or the severity of rainfall extremes changed during the 1960 – 2000 period in the Republic of Benin in West Africa. This period provides the best spatial coverage of homogenous daily series, which can be used for calculating the proportion of global land area exhibiting a significant change in extreme or severe rainfall. We selected 12 indicators of extreme climatic events that are based on daily tot...

  15. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.

    2015-09-01

    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  16. A retrospective analysis of heterophoria values in a clinical population aged 18 to 30 years

    N.T. Makgaba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information on heterophoria values in South Africans  is  scanty. The  purpose  of  this  paper therefore, is to present information on the distribution of heterophoria in a clinical popula-tion aged 18 to 30 years, which hitherto is not available. The data presented here was obtained from  the  record  cards  of  475  black  South African  patients  examined  at  the  Optometry clinic, University of Limpopo (Turfloop cam-pus between 2000 and 2005. The patients were examined by final year students under the supervision  of  qualified  optometrists.  Heterophoria was  measured  for  each  patient  using  the  von Graefe  method.  The  horizontal  heterophoria for distance vision (6 m ranged from 16 prism diopters (pd esophoria to 12 pd exophoria with a mean of 0.74 pd exophoria (SD = ± 2.84 pd. For  distance  vision,  esophoria  ranged  from 0.5 to 16 pd with a mean of 3.08 pd (SD = ± 3.09, while exophoria ranged from 0.5 pd to 12 pd with a mean of 2.21 pd (SD = 1.82 pd. For near vision (0.4 m, the horizontal phorias ranged from 17 pd esophoria to 15 pd exopho-ria with a mean of 3.84 pd exophoria (SD = ± 4.80 pd. The near esophorias ranged from 0.5 to 17 pd with a mean 4.88 pd (SD = ± 3.41, while the exophorias ranged from 1.0 to 15 pd with a mean of 6.30 pd (SD = ± 2.58. Vertical heterophoria for distance vision ranged from 5 to 3 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.05 pd right hyperphoria (SD = ± 0.76 whereas at near it ranged from 4 to 6 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.08 pd right hypophoria (SD =  ±  0.96.  The  distributions  of  heterophoria at distance and near were non-normal.  There was  no  significant  gender  variation  in  the horizontal  values  for  distance  vision  and  the vertical  (distance  and  near  ones.  However, there was a statistically significant gender varia-tion  in  the  near  horizontal  values  (p

  17. Terrestrial cosmogenic 3He: where are we 30 years after its discovery?

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Pik, Raphaël; Farley, Kenneth A.; Lavé, Jérôme; Marrocchi, Yves

    2016-04-01

    It is now 30 years since cosmogenic 3He has been detected for the first time in a terrestrial sample (Kurz, 1986). 3He is now a widely used geochemical tool in many fields of Earth sciences: volcanology, tectonics, paleoclimatology. 3He has the advantage to have a high "production rate" to "detection limit" ratio, allowing surfaces as young as hundred of years to be dated. Although its nuclear stability implies several limitations, it moreover represents a useful alternative to 10Be in mafic environments. This contribution is a review of the progresses that have been accomplished since this discovery, and discuss strategies to improve both the accuracy and the precision of this geochronometer. 1) Measurement of cosmogenic 3He Correction of magmatic 3He. To estimate the non-cosmogenic magmatic 3He, Kurz (1986) invented a two steps method involving crushing of phenocrysts (to analyze the isotopic ratio of the magmatic component), followed by a subsequent melting of the sample, to extract the remaining components, including the cosmogenic 3He: 3Hec = 3Hemelt ‑4Hemelt x (3He/4He)magmatic (1) Several studies suggested that the preliminary crushing may induce a loss of cosmogenic 3He (Hilton et al., 1993; Yokochi et al., 2005; Blard et al., 2006), implying an underestimate of the cosmogenic 3He measurement. However, subsequent work did not replicate these observations (Blard et al., 2008; Goerhing et al., 2010), suggesting an influence of the used apparatus. An isochron method (by directly melting several phenocrysts aliquots) is an alternative to avoid the preliminary crushing step (Blard and Pik, 2008). Atmospheric contamination. Protin et al. (in press) provides robust evidences for a large and irreversible contamination of atmospheric helium on silicate surfaces. This unexpected behavior may reconcile the contrasted observations about the amplitude of crushing loss. This undesirable atmospheric contamination is negligible if grain fractions smaller than 150 mm are

  18. Estimating rainfall distributions at high temporal resolutions using a multifractal model

    A. Pathirana

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall data from 18 stations in the vicinity of Tokyo city, measured to a precision of 1 mm, were analysed for multifractal properties. A multifractal model based on the scaling properties of temporal distribution of rainfall intensities was formulated to investigate the intensity distribution relationships in the available scaling regime. Although conventional analysis did not provide encouraging results with these measurements, an alternative approach that could be applied to rainfall data of widely variable quality and duration was used to establish a scaling relationship between daily and hourly rainfall intensities. Using a discrete cascade algorithm based on the log-Lèvy generator, synthetic hourly rainfall series were generated from the multifractal statistics of daily-accumulated rainfall. Several properties of rainfall time series that are relevant to the use of rainfall data in surface hydrological studies were used to determine, statistically, the degree of agreement between the synthetic hourly series and observed hourly rainfall. Keywords: rainfall modelling, cascades, multifractal, downscaling

  19. Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

    An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

  20. 30 Years – 20 State DOTs: Trends in Pavement Management observed through real world Implementation at the State DOT Level

    Zavitski, Jeffrey L.; Piane, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    Since the first International Conference on Managing Pavement Assets 30 years ago in 1985, there has been continuous enhancement and evolution of pavement management system (PMS) technology to produce more effective recommendations coming out of an agency's PMS. Improvements in data collection, performance measures, deterioration modeling, dynamic segmentation, treatment algorithms, triggering mechanisms and optimization technologies have led to significant improvements in PMS strategy recomm...

  1. 30 years after Chernobyl. What would we make better today?; 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was wuerden wir heute besser machen?

    Bieringer, Jacqueline [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Freiburg (Germany). Fachgebiet SW 2.5; Hajek, Michael [Oesterreichischer Verband fuer Strahlenschutz, Wien (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Maringer, Franz Josef [BEV - Bundesamt fuer Eich- und Vermessungswesen, Wien (Austria). Referat fuer ionisierende Strahlung und Radioaktivitaet; Murith, Christophe [Bundesamt fuer Gesundheit (BAG), Bern (Switzerland). Abt. Strahlenschutz; Steinkopff, Thomas [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany). Lab. 6.301; Hefner, Alfred; Maushart, Rupprecht; Steger, Ferdinand

    2016-05-01

    The reactions of the authorities responsible for the measurements of radioactivity in the environment in Germany, Switzerland and Austria ore shown. The further development of the readiness and the possibilities to measure in the last 30 years are described. Also the question of activity measurements after a nuclear accident by single members of the population is dealt with.

  2. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian

    2013-01-01

    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  3. Delimiting homogeneous regions using the multifractal properties of validated rainfall data series

    García-Marín, A. P.; Estévez, J.; Medina-Cobo, M. T.; Ayuso-Muñoz, J. L.

    2015-10-01

    In this work, a regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data in Malaga (Southern Spain) has been performed. Rainfall records have been validated, applying various quality control tests as a pre-requisite before their use, ensuring their reliability and discarding anomalous data. For grouping the stations into potential homogeneous regions, the multifractal properties of daily rainfall data series recorded at 72 locations have been studied. The scaling of the rainfall moments has been analyzed and the empirical moments scaling exponent functions have been obtained. The corresponding multifractal values have been used to group stations into regions, resulting some of them homogeneous.

  4. Solar activity and rainfall pattern in Tamil Nadu during the Northeast monsoon

    An attempt is made to examine the association, of any, between the rainfall, in Tamil Nadu and sunspot activity and if so, whether similar periodicities are also present in the sunspot activity. The daily relative sunspot numbers for the period Oct.-Dec. during 1961-70 and the daily sunspot means for the period Oct.-Dec. 1889-1938, as well as the rainfall series for the period Oct.-Nov., during 1961-70 have been analysed by power spectrum. An anti-phase relation was noticed between the rainfall and the sunspot activity. The 15-day periodicity in the rainfall was significant. The sunspot activity also showed similar periodicities as rainfall. The 30-day periodicity in the sunspot activity was significant. (author)

  5. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p2/P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  6. An assessment of the frequency of maximum rainfall events in Hai Phong and Nha Trang

    Tran Dinh, Lan; Pham Hai, An; Vu Duy, Vinh

    2011-01-01

    Extreme heavy rain events often cause severe threat to people and their properties in high-populated, especially in coastal cities. These events can be analysed with using data observed during the least 30 years to asses how the climate change has impacted local environments in Hai Phong and Nha Trang. The extreme rainfall events is defined as high values exceeding the 95th percentile for each station. The results shows that the high rainfall (95th percentile) is 333.58mm a day in Hai Phon...

  7. Managing Daily Life

    ... Duchenne / Managing Daily Life Print Email Managing Daily Life Environmental accessibility As the person with Duchenne starts ... such as wider doorways and ramps, can make life easier once the person with Duchenne cannot climb ...

  8. Daily Weather Records

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  9. Spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Insights from over 30 years of research satellite observations

    Lahoz, W.A.; Orsolini, Y.J.; Manney, G.L.; Minschwaner, K.; Allen, D.R.; Errera, Q.; Jackson, D.R.; Lambert, A.; Lee, J.; Pumphrey, H.; Schwartz, M.; Wu, D.

    2012-07-01

    We discuss the insights that research satellite observations from the last 30 years have provided on the spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Starting from the time of the NASA LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, both launched in 1978, we show how these observations have augmented our knowledge of the polar middle atmosphere, in particular how information on ozone and tracers has augmented our knowledge of: (i) the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wintertime polar stratosphere and the summertime circulation; and (ii) the roles of chemistry and transport in determining the stratospheric ozone distribution. We address the increasing joint use of observations and models, in particular in data assimilation, in contributing to this understanding. Finally, we outline requirements to allow continuation of the wealth of information on the polar middle atmosphere provided by research satellites over the last 30 years.(Author)

  10. Application of Rainfall-runoff Models to Zard River Catchment's

    M. B. Rahnama

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are nonlinear processes according to the sequential and spatial distribution of the rainfall. So, it is difficult to explain the response of catchments systems with the simple models. In the present work simulation of the rainfall-runoff processes have been carried out by the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and the HEC-HMS models. The ANN models of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP with two hidden layers and Radial Basis Function (RBF, were used to simulate this process. It has been applied to the Zard river basin in Khuzestan province using daily rainfall and runoff data, during the period of 1991 to 2000. During this period, 14 flood events were selected to simulate rainfall-runoff processes by the HEC-HMS model. Results of two models were compared with the observed data of Zard river basin. It is shown that RBF model is much better than, MLP and HEC-HMS models for simulating of the rainfall-runoff process in Zard river basin.

  11. About 30 Years of Integrable Chiral Potts Model, Quantum Groups at Roots of Unity and Cyclic Hypergeometric Functions

    Au-Yang, Helen; Perk, Jacques H. H.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the integrable chiral Potts model, as it clearly relates to how we got befriended with Vaughan Jones, whose birthday we celebrated at the Qinhuangdao meeting. Remarkably we can also celebrate the birthday of the model, as it has been introduced about 30 years ago as the first solution of the star-triangle equations parametrized in terms of higher genus functions. After introducing the most general checkerboard Yang--Baxter equation, we specialize to the star-triangle ...

  12. Reference seismic velocity Earth model for Italy from local source tomography and 30 years of controlled source seismology data

    Di Stefano, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Kissling, E.; Institute of Geophysics, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; Chiarabba, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Baccheschi, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia

    2005-01-01

    We present here a new high resolution regional P-wave velocity model for the lithosphere beneath the Italian region obtained by including information on the Moho topography, and integrating results from local earthquake tomography with 30 years of CSS data, applying the method of Waldhauser (1996). For the 3D moho map, we extended the crustal model, already available for the Alps by Lippitsch et al., 2003, to the Italian peninsula, Corsica, Sardinia, and Sicily. The tomographic model is obtai...

  13. Long term prognosis of women with breast cancer in New Zealand: study of survival to 30 years.

    Hibberd, A. D.; Horwood, L J; Wells, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    The long term prognosis of women with breast cancer was studied by analysing retrospectively the 30 year survival of 2019 women with histologically proved breast cancer recorded at the National Cancer Registry in New Zealand between 1950 and 1954. Excess mortality rates for successive five year survival cohorts were calculated from the survival data. From the total cohort the excess mortality rate fell rapidly during the first 10 years and then became low after 20 years. There were no signifi...

  14. Fessenheim: 30 years of nuclear fuel operation; Fessenheim: 30 ans d'exploitation du combustible nucleaire

    Abgrall, G. [Centrale de Fessenheim, EDF, 68 - Dessenheim (France)

    2008-03-15

    Fessenheim units 1 and 2 are the first two 900 MW PWR put into operation in France (1977). This article reviews 30 years of change, optimization and feedback experience from Fessenheim, concerning: -) fuel assemblies (particularly the design of some components like grids, ends and guide tubes), -) the reload fuel management (to get a higher unloading burn-up), -) the refueling machine and tools (heavy modifications to reduce the human factor), and -) work organization (work shifts and staff training). (A.C.)

  15. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

    S K Roy Bhowmik; Ananda K Das

    2007-06-01

    Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.

  16. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  17. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation - Case Study

    Jarosińska, Elżbieta; Pierzga, Katarzyna

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF) combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  18. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2015-11-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  19. Thorotrast and in vivo thorium dioxide: numerical simulation of 30 years of alpha radiation absorption by the tissues near a large compact source

    Bianconi, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Background: The epidemiology of the slightly radioactive contrast agent named Thorotrast presents a very long latency period between the injection and the development of the related pathologies. It is an example of the more general problem posed by a radioactive internal contaminant whose effects are not noteworthy in the short term but become dramatic in the long period. A point that is still to be explored is fluctuations (in space and time) in the localized absorption of radiation by the tissues. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation code has been developed to study over a 30 year period the daily absorption of alpha radiation by micrometer sized portions of tissue placed at a distance of 0-100 micrometers from a model source, that approximates a compact thorium dioxide source in liver or spleen whose size is larger or equal to 20 micrometers. The biological depletion of the daughter nuclei of the thorium series is taken into account. The initial condition assumes chemically purified natural thorium. Results: ...

  20. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  1. Hydrological processes and water resources management in a dryland environment IV: Long-term groundwater level fluctuations due to variation in rainfall

    Butterworth, J. A.; R. E. Schulze; Simmonds, L. P.; Moriarty, P.; Mugabe, F.

    1999-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of variations in rainfall on groundwater, long-term rainfall records were used to simulate groundwater levels over the period 1953-96 at an experimental catchment in south-east Zimbabwe. Two different modelling methods were adopted. Firstly, a soil water balance model (ACRU) simulated drainage from daily rainfall and evaporative demand; groundwater levels were predicted as a function of drainage, specific yield and water table height. Secondly, the cumulative rainfall ...

  2. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  3. STUDY OF PREVALENCE OF DIABETES MELLITUS TYPE - 2 AND IMPAIRED GLUCOSE TOLERANCE AMONG ADULTS 30 YEARS ABOVE IN AN URBAN FIELD PRACTICE AREA OF KATIHAR MEDICAL COLLEGE

    Shahid

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES : 1) To determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus Type - 2 in an urban population of age 30 year and above 2) To determine the prevalence of impaired an urban population of age 30 years and above 3) To study the association of various risk factors with diabe tes mellitus Type - 2 and Implored Glucose Tolerance. METHODOLOGY : A community based cross section study will be carried out in population 30 years above at Sharifganj with Dist...

  4. Rainfall Hazards Prevention based on a Local Model Forecasting System

    Buendia, F.; Ojeda, B.; Buendia Moya, G.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.

    2009-04-01

    Rainfall is one of the most important events of human life and society. Some rainfall phenomena like floods or hailstone are a threat to the agriculture, business and even life. However in the meteorological observatories there are methods to detect and alarm about this kind of events, nowadays the prediction techniques based on synoptic measurements need to be improved to achieve medium term feasible forecasts. Any deviation in the measurements or in the model description makes the forecast to diverge in time from the real atmosphere evolution. In this paper the advances in a local rainfall forecasting system based on time series estimation with General Regression Neural Networks are presented. The system is introduced, explaining the measurements, methodology and the current state of the development. The aim of the work is to provide a complementary criteria to the current forecast systems, based on the daily atmosphere observation and tracking over a certain place.

  5. An Assessment of the INM RAS Coupled Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model. The Results of the AOMIP 30-year Coordinated Spin-Up

    Yakovlev, N.

    2003-04-01

    run-off, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity and ocean temperature and salinity at open boundaries. The first stage of the AOMIP is the 30-year Coordinated Spin-up 1948-1977. The results on the 30-year spin-up of the Arctic Ocean climate system are presented and compared with observations. The spatial distribution and temporal variability of ocean temperature and salinity, sea level and ice characteristics are investigated with the special focus on the Atlantic water pathways and Arctic Ocean freshwater content. The limits and utility of the coarse resolution models in Arctic modeling are also discussed.

  6. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  7. The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-07-01

    This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

  8. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  9. Feedback experience from a 30 years old concrete using cement with a high content of blast furnace slag

    In this study, we analyze the aspect of a slag cement concrete used in the seventies for the construction of the walls of a structure located close to the channel sea. From different characterization tests (chemical, physical, and micro structural), it can be conclude that the concrete is not showing any pathology and any important attack, due to the marine environment. After being exposed during 30 years, the chlorides ions have not reach the steel metal bar reinforcement and the carbonation depth is still low. This study details the results of chloride diffusion coefficient and carbonation depth measurements, sulfates and chloride quantification, XRD analysis, and SEM examination. (authors)

  10. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima

    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  11. A Conversation with the Richmonds on Their 30 Years of Service with the American Board of Cardiovascular Perfusion

    Palmer, David A.; Mongero, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    David A. PalmerLinda B. MongeroBeth A. Richmond, PhD, and Mark G. Richmond, EdD, Co-Executive Directors serving for the ABCP, have assumed this role for the past 30 years. Their experience working with a variety of perfusionists in the field influenced the profession and some of the professionals we view as perfusion leaders. Anyone with time working as a clinical perfusionist acknowledges the role they have had establishing the certification process and influencing perfusion education. The g...

  12. Selected compilation of clinical cases for over exposure workers of the Chinese nuclear industry in the past 30 years

    This report is a professional reference book on clinical medical management of overexposed individuals. It collects the medical records of the cases accumulated in the past 30 years in nuclear industry including patients with internal contamination of radionuclide, with overexposed intake of natural uranium, with radiation skin injury and overdose external exposure. The report describes the clinical practical experience in prevention and treatment of internal contamination radiation injury, radiation skin injury, as well as radiation effect of overdose external exposure in the nuclear industry

  13. Evolution of extreme rainfall in France with a changing climate

    This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)

  14. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over NASA's Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) Domain

    ElSaadani, Mohamed; Quintero, Felipe; Krajewski, Witold F.; Goska, Radoslaw; Seo, Bongchul

    2014-05-01

    Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to provide better understanding of the strengths and limitations of satellite products in the context of hydrologic applications. IFloodS took place in the central to north eastern part of Iowa in Midwestern United States during the months of April-June, 2013. Quantifying the physical characteristics, space/time variability and assessing satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainties at instantaneous to daily time scales are of the main objectives of IFloodS field experiment beside assessing hydrologic predictive skills as a function of space/time scales and discerning the relative roles of rainfall quantities in flood genesis. The errors of rainfall estimation of three satellite rainfall products (TRMM's TMPA 3B42 V7, CPC's CMORPH and CHRS at UCI's PERSIANN) have been characterized in space and time using NCEP Stage IV radar-rainfall product as a benchmark for comparison. The satellite rainfall products used in this study represent 3 hourly, quarter degree, rainfall accumulation. The benchmark rainfall accumulation has an hourly, four kilometers, resolutions in time and space respectively. We also investigate the adequacy of satellite rainfall products as inputs for hydrological modeling. To this end, these products were used as forcing for the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model and produced discharge simulations in a high-resolution drainage network. The IFC hydrological model has been validated using radar rainfall product and thus, the hydrological outputs becomes the reference of comparison for the other rainfall products. We evaluated the hydrological performance of the rainfall products at different spatial scales, ranging from 2 to 14,000 square miles using stream discharge information from USGS gauges network. We discuss the adequacy of the rainfall products for flood forecasting at different spatial scales.

  15. 30 years of collaboration

    Fuchs, Clemens; Hajdu, Lajos

    2015-01-01

    We highlight some of the most important cornerstones of the long standing and very fruitful collaboration of the Austrian Diophantine Number Theory research group and the Number Theory and Cryptography School of Debrecen. However, we do not plan to be complete in any sense but give some interesting data and selected results that we find particularly nice. At the end we focus on two topics in more details, namely a problem that origins from a conjecture of R\\'enyi and Erd\\H{o}s (on the number ...

  16. Little evidence for an epidemic of myopia in Australian primary school children over the last 30 years

    Crewther Sheila G

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently reported prevalences of myopia in primary school children vary greatly in different regions of the world. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of refractive errors in an unselected urban population of young primary school children in eastern Sydney, Australia, between 1998 and 2004, for comparison with our previously published data gathered using the same protocols and other Australian studies over the last 30 years. Methods Right eye refractive data from non-cycloplegic retinoscopy was analysed for 1,936 children aged 4 to 12 years who underwent a full eye examination whilst on a vision science excursion to the Vision Education Centre Clinic at the University of New South Wales. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalents equal to or less than -0.50 D, and hyperopia as spherical equivalents greater than +0.50 D. Results The mean spherical equivalent decreased significantly (p Conclusions Comparison of our new data with our early 1990s data and that from studies of over 8,000 Australian non-clinical rural and urban children in the 1970's and 1980's provided no evidence for the rapidly increasing prevalence of myopia described elsewhere in the world. In fact, the prevalence of myopia in Australian children continues to be significantly lower than that reported in Asia and North America despite changing demographics. This raises the issue of whether these results are a reflection of Australia's stable educational system and lifestyle over the last 30 years.

  17. A perspective on 30 years of progress in ambient noise: Source mechanisms and the characteristics of the sound field

    Cato, Douglas H.

    2012-11-01

    The last 30 years has seen substantial progress in ocean ambient noise research, particularly in understanding the mechanisms of sound generation by the sources of ambient noise, the way in which the noise field is affected by sound propagation, and improvements in quantifying the relationship between noise and environmental parameters. This has led to significant improvements in noise prediction. Activity was probably strongest in the 1980s and 1990s, as evident, for example, in the Sea Surface Sound conferences and their published proceedings (four over 10 years). Although much of the application has been to sonar, there has also been interest in using ambient noise to measure properties of the environment and in its significance to marine life. There have been significant changes in the ambient noise itself over the last 30 years. The contribution from human activities appears to have increased, particularly that due to increases in shipping numbers. Biological noise has also increased with the significant increases in populations of some whale species following the cessation of broad scale whaling in the 1960s and early 1970s. Concern about the effects of noise on marine animals as well as the way they exploit the noise has led to renewed interest in ambient noise.

  18. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Jefferson Schick

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  19. Downscaling of rainfall in Peru using Generalised Linear Models

    Bergin, E.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Wheater, H.

    2012-04-01

    The assessment of water resources in the Peruvian Andes is particularly important because the Peruvian economy relies heavily on agriculture. Much of the agricultural land is situated near to the coast and relies on large quantities of water for irrigation. The simulation of synthetic rainfall series is thus important to evaluate the reliability of water supplies for current and future scenarios of climate change. In addition to water resources concerns, there is also a need to understand extreme heavy rainfall events, as there was significant flooding in Machu Picchu in 2010. The region exhibits a reduction of rainfall in 1983, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (SOI). NCEP Reanalysis 1 data was used to provide weather variable data. Correlations were calculated for several weather variables using raingauge data in the Andes. These were used to evaluate teleconnections and provide suggested covariates for the downscaling model. External covariates used in the model include sea level pressure and sea surface temperature over the region of the Humboldt Current. Relative humidity and temperature data over the region are also included. The SOI teleconnection is also used. Covariates are standardised using observations for 1960-1990. The GlimClim downscaling model was used to fit a stochastic daily rainfall model to 13 sites in the Peruvian Andes. Results indicate that the model is able to reproduce rainfall statistics well, despite the large area used. Although the correlation between individual rain gauges is generally quite low, all sites are affected by similar weather patterns. This is an assumption of the GlimClim downscaling model. Climate change scenarios are considered using several GCM outputs for the A1B scenario. GCM data was corrected for bias using 1960-1990 outputs from the 20C3M scenario. Rainfall statistics for current and future scenarios are compared. The region shows an overall decrease in mean rainfall but with an increase in variance.

  20. Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models

    Kamruzzaman, M.; Beecham, S.; Metcalfe, A. V.

    2016-02-01

    Estimates of seasonal rainfall maxima at durations as short as 6 min are needed for many applications including the design and analysis of urban drainage systems. It is also important to investigate whether or not there is evidence of changes in these extremes, both as an indicator of the sensitivity of rainfall to anthropogenic and natural climate change and as an aid to the calibration of future scenarios. Estimation of trends in extreme values in a region needs to be based on all the available data if precision is to be achieved. However, extremes at different periods of accumulation at neighbouring sites are not independent because there are temporal and spatial correlations, respectively. A linear mixed effects (lme) model allows for this correlation structure, and can be fitted to unequal record lengths at different sites. The modelling technique is demonstrated with an analysis of monthly maximum rainfall, at nine aggregations between 6 min and 24 h, from six sites, with record lengths between 10 and 25 years, from a region in South Australia. In terms of mean value, there is no evidence of a trend or change in the seasonal distribution of the monthly extreme rainfall. However, there is a strong evidence of an increase in variability of monthly extreme rainfall, estimated as a 58% increase in absolute value of deviation from the mean over a 25 year period. Rainfall records are often only available as a daily accumulation. A formula for the ratio of the monthly maxima at durations shorter than 24 h, down to 6 min, to the 24 h monthly maximum, in terms of: duration, month of the year, and a site specific adjustment is estimated. There is a clear seasonal variation in the ratios and there is evidence of a difference between rainfall stations.

  1. Evaluation of two GCMs in simulating rainfall inter-annual variability over Southern Africa

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.; Gutowski, William J.; Tadross, Mark A.

    2016-02-01

    We evaluate the performance of two global circulation models (GCMs) over Southern Africa, as part of the efforts to improve the skill of seasonal forecast from a multi-model ensemble system over the region. The two GCMs evaluated in the study are the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3). The study analyzed 30-year climate simulations from the models and compared the results with those from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. The evaluation focused on how well the models simulate circulation features, seasonal variation of temperature and rainfall, and the inter-annual rainfall and circulations during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The study also investigated the relationship between the regional rainfall from the models and global sea surface temperature (SST) during the El Niño and La Niña years. The results show that both GCMs simulate the circulation features and the seasonal cycles of rainfall and temperature fairly well. The location and magnitude of maxima and minima in surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP), and rainfall fields are well reproduced. The maximum error in the simulated temperature fields is about 2 °, 4 mb in SLP and 8 mm/day in rainfall. However, CAM3 shows a major bias in simulating the summer rainfall; it simulates the maximum rainfall along the western part of Southern Africa, instead of the eastern part. The phase of the seasonal cycles is well reproduced, but the amplitude is underestimated over the Western Cape. Both CAM3 and HadAM3 give reasonable simulations of significant relationship between the regional rainfall and SST over the Nino 3.4 region and show that ENSO strongly drives the climate of Southern Africa. Hence, the model simulations could contribute to understanding the climate of the region and improve seasonal forecasts over Southern Africa.

  2. Universal Power Law for Relationship between Rainfall Kinetic Energy and Rainfall Intensity

    Seung Sook Shin; Sang Deog Park; Byoung Koo Choi

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall kinetic energy has been linked to linear, exponential, logarithmic, and power-law functions using rainfall intensity as an independent variable. The power law is the most suitable mathematical expression used to relate rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity. In evaluating the rainfall kinetic energy, the empirical power laws have shown a larger deviation than other functions. In this study, universal power law between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity was propose...

  3. Fuzzy conceptual rainfall runoff models

    Özelkan, Ertunga C.; Duckstein, Lucien

    2001-11-01

    A fuzzy conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) framework is proposed herein to deal with those parameter uncertainties of conceptual rainfall-runoff models, that are related to data and/or model structure: with every element of the rainfall-runoff model assumed to be possibly uncertain, taken here as being fuzzy. First, the conceptual rainfall-runoff system is fuzzified and then different operational modes are formulated using fuzzy rules; second, the parameter identification aspect is examined using fuzzy regression techniques. In particular, bi-objective and tri-objective fuzzy regression models are applied in the case of linear conceptual rainfall-runoff models so that the decision maker may be able to trade off prediction vagueness (uncertainty) and the embedding outliers. For the non-linear models, a fuzzy least squares regression framework is applied to derive the model parameters. The methodology is illustrated using: (1) a linear conceptual rainfall-runoff model; (2) an experimental two-parameter model; and (3) a simplified version of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model of the US National Weather Services river forecast system (SAC-SMA) known as the six-parameter model. It is shown that the fuzzy logic framework enables the decision maker to gain insight about the model sensitivity and the uncertainty stemming from the elements of the CRR model.

  4. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  5. Rainfall intensity and groundwater recharge: empirical evidence from the Upper Nile Basin

    Owor, M.; Taylor, R. G.; Tindimugaya, C.; Mwesigwa, D.

    2009-01-01

    Changes in the intensity of precipitation as a result of global warming are expected to be especially pronounced in the tropics. The impact of changing rainfall intensities on groundwater recharge remains, however, unclear. Analysis of a recently compiled data set of coincidental, daily observations of rainfall and groundwater levels remote from abstraction for four stations in the Upper Nile Basin over the period 1999-2008 shows that the magnitude of observed recharge events is better relate...

  6. A L\\'evy-driven rainfall model with applications to futures pricing

    Noven, Ragnhild C.; Almut E. D. Veraart; Gandy, Axel

    2014-01-01

    We propose a parsimonious stochastic model for characterising the distributional and temporal properties of rainfall. The model is based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Hougaard L\\'evy process. We derive properties of this process and propose an extended model which generalises the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to the class of continuous-time ARMA (CARMA) processes. The model is illustrated by fitting it to empirical rainfall data on both daily and hourly time scales. I...

  7. The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation III: Examples and confidence intervals

    Faulkner, D. S.; Jones, D. A.

    1999-01-01

    This paper illustrates the performance of the FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation. Results are presented for three regions of the United Kingdom: the East Midlands, north-west England and south-west England. Focused rainfall growth curves are compared between regions and between different sites within each region. Typical growth curve shapes are discussed with reference to the climate of each region. Daily growth curves are derived from a large number of records of annual maximum rain...

  8. Numerical Statistic Approach for Expert System in Rainfall Prediction Based On Data Series

    Indrabayu, dkk

    2013-01-01

    The potential of statistical approach in predicting rain fall is discussed in this paper. Two most implemented methods i.e. Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Adaptive Splines Threshold Autoregressive (ASTAR) are compared in term of accuracy in prediction. Both methods are constructed to predict daily rainfall in the area of Makassar, Indonesia. Rain problem in Indonesia increasingly complex due to climate shifts that result in high intensity rainfall in the dry season so i...

  9. The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation III: Examples and confidence intervals

    Faulkner, D. S.; Jones, D. A.

    1999-01-01

    This paper illustrates the performance of the FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation. Results are presented for three regions of the United Kingdom: the East Midlands, north-west England and south-west England. Focused rainfall growth curves are compared between regions and between different sites within each region. Typical growth curve shapes are discussed with reference to the climate of each region. Daily growth curves are derived from a large number of records of a...

  10. Diagnostics of Rainfall Anomalies in the Nordeste During the Global Weather Experiment

    Sikdar, D. M.

    1984-01-01

    The relationship of the daily variability of large-scale pressure, cloudiness and upper level wind patterns over the Brazil-Atlantic sector during March/April 1979 to rainfall anomalies in northern Nordeste was investigated. The experiment divides the rainy season (March/April) of 1979 into wet and dry days, then composites bright cloudiness, sea level pressure, and upper level wind fields with respect to persistent rainfall episodes. Wet and dry anomalies are analyzed along with seasonal mean conditions.

  11. Maximum discharge and probable rainfall at Aiuruoca basin, Minas Gerais State

    Leandro Campos Pinto; Pedro Luiz Terra Lima; Zélio Resende de Souza

    2014-01-01

    Research on rainfall and annual daily maximum discharge rates is essential to support decisions during the design of hydraulic structures. This study tested the adequacy of probability functions to predict the probable rainfall and discharge rates of the Aiuruoca River Basin in Minas Gerais State in Brazil. This basin is very important as starting point of the Rio Grande Basin that eventually discharges into the Parana River in the southern region of Brazil at the border with Argentina. It wa...

  12. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    (snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

  13. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  14. Global and diffuse solar irradiance modelling over north-western Europe using MAR regional climate model : validation and construction of a 30-year climatology

    Beaumet, Julien; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Erpicum, Michel

    2015-04-01

    Solar irradiance modelling is crucial for solar resource management, photovoltaic production forecasting and for a better integration of solar energy in the electrical grid network. For those reasons, an adapted version of the Modèle Atmospheric Regional (MAR) is being developed at the Laboratory of Climatology of the University of Liège in order to provide high quality modelling of solar radiation, wind and temperature over north-western Europe. In this new model version, the radiation scheme has been calibrated using solar irradiance in-situ measurements and CORINE Land Cover data have been assimilated in order to improve the modelling of 10 m wind speed and near-surface temperature. In this study, MAR is forced at its boundary by ERA-40 reanalysis and its horizontal resolution is 10 kilometres. Diffuse radiation is estimated using global radiation from MAR outputs and a calibrated version of Ruiz-Arias et al., (2010) sigmoid model. This study proposes to evaluate the method performance for global and diffuse radiation modelling at both the hourly and daily time scale using data from the European Solar Radiation Atlas database for the weather stations of Uccle (Belgium) and Braunschweig (Germany). After that, a 30-year climatology of global and diffuse irradiance for the 1981-2010 period over western Europe is built. The created data set is then analysed in order to highlight possible regional or seasonal trends. The validity of the results is then evaluated after comparison with trends found in in-situ data or from different studies from the literature.

  15. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  16. Maximum discharge and probable rainfall at Aiuruoca basin, Minas Gerais State

    Leandro Campos Pinto

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Research on rainfall and annual daily maximum discharge rates is essential to support decisions during the design of hydraulic structures. This study tested the adequacy of probability functions to predict the probable rainfall and discharge rates of the Aiuruoca River Basin in Minas Gerais State in Brazil. This basin is very important as starting point of the Rio Grande Basin that eventually discharges into the Parana River in the southern region of Brazil at the border with Argentina. It was found that the log-normal two parameters probability function provided the best fit to historical monthly rainfall series. For example, in the month of January, there is a 75% probability that 201 mm of rainfall will occur. This is the month with the highest volume of rainfall in the region. On another hand, for flow rate, the best fit was provided by the log-normal distribution with three parameters.

  17. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in...... relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the...

  18. Materials performance in CANDU reactors: The first 30 years and the prognosis for life extension and new designs

    A number of CANDU reactors have now been in-service for more than 30 years, and several are planning life extensions. This paper summarizes the major corrosion degradation operating experience of various out-of-core (i.e., excluding fuel channels and fuel) materials in-service in currently operating CANDU reactors. Also discussed are the decisions that need to be made for life extension of replaceable and non-replaceable components such as feeders and steam generators, and materials choices for new designs, such as the advanced CANDU reactor (ACR) and enhanced CANDU-6. The basis for these choices, including a brief summary of the R and D necessary to support such decisions is provided. Finally we briefly discuss the materials and R and D needs beyond the immediate future, including new concepts to improve plant operability and component reliability

  19. The Effect of Rainfall Measurement Technique and Its Spatiotemporal Resolution on Discharge Predictions in the Netherlands

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Brauer, C.; Overeem, A.; Sassi, M.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of these spatiotemporal resolutions on discharge simulations in lowland catchments by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in a freely draining lowland catchment and a polder with controlled water levels. We used rain gauge networks with automatic (hourly resolution but low spatial density) and manual gauges (high spatial density but daily resolution). Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. We also investigated the effect of spatiotemporal resolution with a high-resolution X-band radar data set for catchments with different sizes. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. When catchments are divided into sub-catchments, rainfall spatial variability can become more important, especially during convective rainfall events, leading to spatially varying catchment wetness and spatially varying contribution of quick flow routes. Improving rainfall measurements and their spatiotemporal resolution can improve the performance of rainfall

  20. Cycling of 137Cs in soil and vegetation of a flood plain 30 years after initial contamination

    Distribution of radiocesium was determined in soil and vegetation components of a flood plain contaminated by Manhattan Project operations in 1944. Thirty years after contaminated waste effluents were deposited in a temporary holding basin, practically all the soil 137Cs was still within 60 cm of the soil surface. Maximum 137Cs concentrations occurred in the 12- to 22-cm horizon. Concentrations throughout the flood plain were variable; maximum levels of 137Cs exceeded 20,000 pCi/g; intermediate levels of 5,000 to 20,000 pCi/g were encountered along the watercourse, and concentrations less than 5,000 pCi/g were found along the flood plain margins. Relative concentrations in soil, roots, and above-ground vegetation (expressed as ratios on a gram per gram basis) were 0.6 for root/soil, 0.05 for above-ground vegetation/soil, and 0.03 for above-ground vegetation/roots. Ratios ranged from 0.001 to 0.53 for all species, and average ratios for the 30-year post-contamination study showed that the relative 137Cs distribution between plants and soil has not changed significantly from distributions reported 15 years ago (plant/soil ratio 0.05 vs 0.03 by Auerbach et al., 1959). The results also indicated that ratios were higher at low soil-137Cs concentration. Thus, when soil and environmental conditions remain unchanged over a 30-year period, the relative concentration of 137Cs between plants and soil does not appear to change significantly as a function of time. (U.S.)

  1. Adult neurobehavioral outcome of hyperbilirubinemia in full term neonates-a 30 year prospective follow-up study.

    Hokkanen, Laura; Launes, Jyrki; Michelsson, Katarina

    2014-01-01

    Background. Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (HB) may cause severe neurological damage, but serious consequences are effectively controlled by phototherapy and blood exchange transfusion. HB is still a serious health problem in economically compromised parts of the world. The long term outcome has been regarded favorable based on epidemiological data, but has not been confirmed in prospective follow-up studies extending to adulthood. Methods. We studied the long term consequences of HB in a prospective birth cohort of 128 HB cases and 82 controls. The cases are part of a neonatal at-risk cohort (n = 1196) that has been followed up to 30 years of age. HB cases were newborns ≥ 2500 g birth weight and ≥ 37 weeks of gestation who had bilirubin concentrations > 340 µmol/l or required blood exchange transfusion. Subjects with HB were divided into subgroups based on the presence (affected HB) or absence (unaffected HB) of diagnosed neurobehavioral disorders in childhood, and compared with healthy controls. Subjects were seen at discharge, 5, 9 and 16 years of life and parent's and teacher's assessments were recorded. At 30 years they filled a questionnaire about academic and occupational achievement, life satisfaction, somatic and psychiatric symptoms including a ADHD self-rating score. Cognitive functioning was tested using ITPA, WISC, and reading and writing tests at 9 years of life. Results. Compared to controls, the odds for a child with HB having neurobehavioral symptoms at 9 years was elevated (OR = 4.68). Forty-five per cent of the HB group were affected by cognitive abnormalities in childhood and continued to experience problems in adulthood. This was apparent in academic achievement (p ADHD spectrum were frequent in the HB group suggesting a link of HB to other neurodevelopmental disorders. PMID:24688870

  2. Evaluation of Auditory Verbal Memory and Learning Performance of 18-30 Year Old Persian-Speaking Healthy Women

    Reyhane Toufan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Auditory memory plays an important role in developing language skills and learning. The aim of the present study was to assess auditory verbal memory and learning performanceof 18-30 year old healthy adults using the Persian version of the Rey Auditory-Verbal Learning Test(RAVLT.Methods: This descriptive, cross-sectional study was coducted on seventy 18-30 year old healthy females with the mean age of 23.2 years and a standard deviation (SD of 2.4 years. Different aspectsof memory, like immediate recall, delayed recall, recognition, forgetting rate, interference and learning, were assessed using the Persian version of RAVLT.Results: Mean score increased from 8.94 (SD=1.91 on the first trial to 13.70 (SD=1.18 on the fifth trial. Total learning mean score was 12.19 (SD=1.08, and mean learning rate was 4.76. Mean scoresof the participants on the delayed recall and recognition trials were 13.47 (SD=1.2, and 14.72(SD=0.53, respectively. The proactive and retroactive interference scores were 0.86 and 0.96,respectively. The forgetting rate score was 1.01 and the retrieval score was 0.90.Conclusion: The auditory-verbal memory and learning performance of healthy Persian-speaking females was similar to the performance of the same population in other countries. Therefore, the Persian version of RAVLT is valid for assessment of memory function in the Persian-speaking female population.

  3. DailyMed Webservices

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DailyMed RESTful API is a web service for accessing current SPL information. It is implemented using HTTP and can be thought of as a collection of resources,...

  4. Dementia - daily care

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000030.htm Dementia - daily care To use the sharing features on ... prevent choking. Tips for Talking with Someone with Dementia Keep distractions and noise down: Turn off the ...

  5. Daily Weather Maps

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  6. DailyMed

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  7. Analysis of the Rainfall Occurrence in Indonesia Region Using Point Process Model

    Sunusi, Nurtiti; E.T, Herdiani; Nurdin, Nurdin

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this research is study a point process model for rainfall occurrence. The model is a renewal process. In this model, the rainfall occurrence is considered by the random point in a space, where every point denoted by time or/and location of an event. Conditional Intensity of te model is associated by hazard rate. Parameter of the model is estimated by hazard rate likelihood point process (HRLPP). The estimation is applied to a data set of daily rainfall occurrences in two stations ...

  8. Rainfall regime across the Sahel band in the Gourma region, Mali

    F. Frappart; P. Hiernaux; Guichard, F.; Mougin , Eric; L. Kergoat; Arjounin, Marc; Lavenu, François; Koite, M.; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Lebel, Thierry

    2009-01-01

    The Sahel is characterized by low and highly variable rainfall, which strongly affects the hydrology and the climate of the region and creates severe constraints for agriculture and water management. This study provides the first characterization of the rainfall regime for the Gourma region located in Mali, Century Sahel (14.5-17.5 degrees N and 2-1 degrees S). The rainfall regime is described using two datasets: the daily long term raingauge records covering the period 1950-2007, and the hig...

  9. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2015-01-01

    A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which the...... anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

  10. Bias adjustment of satellite rainfall data through stochastic modeling: Methods development and application to Nepal

    Müller, Marc F.; Thompson, Sally E.

    2013-10-01

    Estimating precipitation over large spatial areas remains a challenging problem for hydrologists. Sparse ground-based gauge networks do not provide a robust basis for interpolation, and the reliability of remote sensing products, although improving, is still imperfect. Current techniques to estimate precipitation rely on combining these different kinds of measurements to correct the bias in the satellite observations. We propose a novel procedure that, unlike existing techniques, (i) allows correcting the possibly confounding effects of different sources of errors in satellite estimates, (ii) explicitly accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of the biases and (iii) allows the use of non overlapping historical observations. The proposed method spatially aggregates and interpolates gauge data at the satellite grid resolution by focusing on parameters that describe the frequency and intensity of the rainfall observed at the gauges. The resulting gridded parameters can then be used to adjust the probability density function of satellite rainfall observations at each grid cell, accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Unlike alternate methods, we explicitly adjust biases on rainfall frequency in addition to its intensity. Adjusted rainfall distributions can then readily be applied as input in stochastic rainfall generators or frequency domain hydrological models. Finally, we also provide a procedure to use them to correct remotely sensed rainfall time series. We apply the method to adjust the distributions of daily rainfall observed by the TRMM satellite in Nepal, which exemplifies the challenges associated with a sparse gauge network and large biases due to complex topography. In a cross-validation analysis on daily rainfall from TRMM 3B42 v6, we find that using a small subset of the available gauges, the proposed method outperforms local rainfall estimations using the complete network of available gauges to directly interpolate local rainfall or correct TRMM by adjusting

  11. Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

    Carolina Garcia-Vidal

    Full Text Available It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011. Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5% had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases, antigenuria (206 and serology (98. Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m(2 in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m(2 for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04. A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54. Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03. Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003. No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (-0.06; p = 0.24. As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

  12. Calibrating max-stable models of rainfall extremes at multiple timescales

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of extreme rainfall events is critical for estimating the risk of flooding, leading to better design of infrastructure and management of flood events. The majority of engineering design is based on estimates of the probability of extreme rainfall known as the Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationship (IDF). IDF curves are estimated at each rain gauge and are subsequently interpolated for application to ungauged locations. The pointwise nature of IDF estimates leads to difficulties, especially at sub-daily timescales, due to the sparseness of sub-daily extreme rainfall data. As a result there is greater uncertainty and potential for bias when estimating sub-daily extreme rainfall. By using a model that incorporates dependence between spatial extremes as well as across multiple timescales, there is considerable potential to improve estimates of extreme rainfall. The aim of this research is to develop max-stable models of extreme rainfall that have both spatial dependence as well as dependence across timescales. Max-stable processes are a direct extension of the univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) model into the spatial domain. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) proposed a mathematical framework which expresses the parameters as a function of timescale. This parameterization is important because it allows data to be incorporated from daily rainfall stations to improve estimates at sub-daily timescales. The approach therefore addresses the issue of sparseness for sub-daily stations by exploiting the denser network of daily stations. A case study in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment near Sydney is used, having 82 daily gauges (>50 years) and 13 sub-daily gauges (>24 years) over a region of 300 km x 300 km area. The max

  13. Pricing rainfall derivatives at the CME

    López Cabrera, Brenda; Odening, Martin; Ritter, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature derivatives, however, pricing rainfall derivatives is more difficult. In this article, we propose to model rainfall indices via a flexible type of distribution, namely the normal-inverse Gaussian distri...

  14. Assessing the relative effectiveness of statistical downscaling and distribution mapping in reproducing rainfall statistics based on climate model results

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2016-01-01

    To improve the level skill of climate models (CMs) in reproducing the statistics of daily rainfall at a basin level, two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs based on historical series of precipitation. The other, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, is the use of stochastic models to conditionally simulate rainfall series, based on large-scale atmospheric forcing from CMs. While promising, the latter approach attracted reduced attention in recent years, since the developed downscaling schemes involved complex weather identification procedures, while demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall. In a recent effort, Langousis and Kaleris () developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper-air variables, which is simpler to implement and more accurately reproduces several statistical properties of actual rainfall records. Here we study the relative performance of: (a) direct statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs using nonparametric distribution mapping, and (b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (), in reproducing the historical rainfall statistics, including rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e., the Flumendosa catchment, using rainfall and atmospheric data from four CMs of the ENSEMBLES project. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the CM used and the characteristics of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for yearly rainfall maxima.

  15. Gridded radar rainfall product for comparison with model rainfall

    Jyothi, K. Amar; Devajyoti, D.; Kumar, D. Preveen; Rajagopal, E. N.; Rao, T. Narayana

    2016-05-01

    A tool for the entire Indian weather radar network using the static composite QI (Quality Index) map is generated. Various customized modules are used for this generation of the radar mosaic. The characterization of quality of DWR (Doppler weather Radar) data in terms of their QI is essential for assimilating the data into NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. The static QI maps give a quick overview about the inherent errors in the DWR data. Quality control algorithms are applied for the generation of composite QI. The near real time access to the DWR data at NCMRWF enables the generation of an accumulated gridded radar rainfall product. This gridded rainfall map is useful for generating products like high resolution rainfall product, QPE (quantitative precipitation estimate) and for other applications. Results of some case studies shall be presented.

  16. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

    2003-04-01

    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  17. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  18. Satellite rainfall monitoring over Africa using multi-spectral MSG data in an artificial neural network approach

    Chadwick, Robin; Grimes, David

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall monitoring over Africa is crucial for a variety of humanitarian and agricultural purposes, and satellites have been used for some time to provide real-time rainfall estimates over the region. Several recent applications of satellite rainfall estimates, such as flash-flood warning systems and crop-yield models, require accurate rainfall totals at daily timescales or below. Multi-spectral Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data provide information on cloud properties such as optical depth and cloud particle size and phase. These parameters are all relevant to the probability of rainfall occurring from a cloud and the likely intensity of that rainfall, so the use of MSG data should lead to improved satellite rainfall estimates. An artificial neural network (ANN) using multi-spectral inputs from MSG has been trained to provide daily rainfall estimates over Ethiopia, using daily rain-gauge data for calibration. Although ANN methods have previously been applied to the problem of producing rainfall estimates from multi-spectral satellite data, in general precipitation radar data have been used for calibration. The advantage of using rain-gauge data is that gauges are far more widespread over Africa than radar networks, so this method can be easily transferred and if necessary re-calibrated in different climatological regions of the continent. The ANN estimates have been validated against independent Ethiopian gauge data at a variety of time and space scales. The ANN shows an improvement in accuracy at daily timescale when compared to rainfall estimates from the TAMSAT algorithm, which uses only single channel MSG data.

  19. Chronic daily headaches

    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  20. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  1. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  2. Estimation of daily albedo on Tottori sand surface

    Daily albedos of a bare sand surface were measured with a solarimeter (Eko MS-62) between 23 August and 30 November in 1997 at Tottori sand dune, Japan. These quickly decreased on rainy days, and recovered during dry spells (days between rainfalls). A strong exponential relationship was found between daily albedos and the number of dry days. The daily albedos on dry days also showed a direct relationship with daily transmissivities in the range less than 0.55. Two simple models were developed to estimate daily albedos for dry spell days on bare Tottori sand surface using routine meteorological data. Daily albedos were calculated using these two models, and compared with the measured daily albedos. For Model #1, the daily albedos were successfully predicted only using the number of dry spell days; the correlation coefficient between the estimated and measured albedo was 0.73, and the standard error was 1.2%. For Model #2, the number of dry spell days and transmissivity were considered in order to calculate the daily albedo on dry spell days; the correlation coefficient was 0.85, and the standard error was 0.9%. Estimated albedos were in good agreement with measured albedos. (author)

  3. Rainfall and the length of the growing season in Nigeria

    Odekunle, T. O.

    2004-03-01

    This study examines the length of the growing season in Nigeria using the daily rainfall data of Ikeja, Ondo, Ilorin, Kaduna and Kano. The data were collected from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Services, Oshodi, Lagos. The length of the growing season was determined using the cumulative percentage mean rainfall and daily rainfall probability methods.Although rainfall in Ikeja, Ondo, Ilorin, Kaduna, and Kano appears to commence around the end of the second dekad of March, middle of the third dekad of March, mid April, end of the first dekad of May, and early June respectively, its distribution characteristics at the respective stations remain inadequate for crop germination, establishment, and development till the end of the second dekad of May, early third dekad of May, mid third dekad of May, end of May, and end of the first dekad of July respectively. Also, rainfall at the various stations appears to retreat starting from the early third dekad of October, early third dekad of October, end of the first dekad of October, end of September, and early second dekad of September respectively, but its distribution characteristics only remain adequate for crop development at the respective stations till around the end of the second dekad of October, end of the second dekad of October, middle of the first dekad of October, early October, and middle of the first dekad of September respectively. Thus, the active lengths of the growing season are approximately 5 months, 5 months, 4 months, 4 months, and 2 months respectively. Plants that are short-dry-spell tolerant may thrive early in the rainy season, i.e. from the end of the second dekad of March to the end of the second dekad of May (in Ikeja), middle of the third dekad of March to the early third dekad of May (in Ondo), mid April to the middle of the third dekad of May (in Ilorin), end of the first dekad of May to end of May (in Kaduna), and early June to the end of the first dekad in July (in Kano), but

  4. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  5. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  6. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Maximum Temperature, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual maximum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  7. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of...

  8. Health risk or resource? Gradual and independent association between self-rated health and mortality persists over 30 years.

    Matthias Bopp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5-10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors. METHODS: We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥ 16 years who participated 1977-79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure. RESULTS: 92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980-2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from "excellent" (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1 to "good" (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01-1.46 to "fair" (1.41, 1.18-1.68; 1.39, 1.14-1.70 to "poor"(1.61, 1.15-2.25; 1.49, 1.07-2.06 to "very poor" (2.85, 1.25-6.51; 1.30, 0.18-9.35. Persons answering the SRH question with "don't know" (1.87, 1.21-2.88; 1.26, 0.87-1.83 had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: SRH is a strong and "dose-dependent" predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than

  9. Evolution of the Urban Heat Island of the city of Bologna (Italy) in the last 30 years

    Ventura, Francesca; Gaspari, Nicola; Piana, Stefano; Rossi Pisa, Paola

    2010-05-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is the air temperature difference between the urban area and the surrounding agricultural area of a city, due to the anthropic activities and different surfaces typical of the town. This phenomenon has been documented for many cities with different population, topography and climate (Chandler, 1962 and Oke, 1982 among the first), and has been quantified in many areas (see as an example for Italy Agnese et al, 2008). Many causes contribute to the UHI, such as different heat capacities of vegetated surfaces as compared to buildings and paving materials; different absorption due to canopy geometry; anthropogenic heat sources and so on. (for example see Camilloni and Barros, 1997) What is not so easy to find in literature is the study of the evolution of this phenomenon with time. UHI could be improved by changes in the town behaviour (increase in car traffic or winter-heating/summer-cooling), reduced by the enlargement of the suburb area, arriving to include the rural meteorological stations, or mitigated by the general growth of air temperature due to global warming. In this work, results from the analysis of two 30 years time series air temperature data are presented. The first data set comes from an agrometeorological station sited in the Botanical garden of the University of Bologna, in the centre of the town (44° 30' 05"N, 11° 21' 18" E). The second agrometeorological station is sited in the experimental farm of the University of Bologna in Cadriano (44° 33' 03" N, 11° 24' 36" E), 9 km from the first and outside of the town boundaries. Both data series range from 1978 to 2007 and are measured by mechanical thermoigrometers. Detailed information about instruments and data treatment are available in Matzneller et al. (2009). Results show an increasing trend in both stations for air maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, more evident in the rural data. The mean UHI is of about 1.3 ± 0.7 °C as an average on the 30

  10. FREQUENCY STRUCTURE OF MAJOR RAINFALL EVENTS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF BANGLADESH

    RAQUIBUL ALAM

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The amount of rainfall received over an area is an important factor in assessing availability of water to meet various demands for agriculture, industry, irrigation, generation of hydroelectricity and other human activities. The distribution of rainfall in time and space is, therefore, an important factor for the economic development of a country. Due to rapid urbanization in various parts of the north-eastern region of Bangladesh, there is a growing need to study the rainfall pattern, and also frequency of the heavy rainfall events. This study was checked monthly average rainfall from daily records of last 50 years for this region. In order to check the major events, time history of monthly rainfall data were transformed into frequency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. Estimated peak frequency (11.98 month depicts that major rainfall events of a year are occurring earlier than the previous year. The variability of rainfall in time scale was also checked from filtered signals, which is very useful for long-term water resources planning, agricultural development and disaster management for Bangladesh.

  11. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  12. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  13. Commercial application of rainfall simulation

    Loch, Rob J.

    2010-05-01

    Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

  14. Location and daily mobility

    Engebretsen, Øystein

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to discuss the interaction of location and daily mobility in cities. According to previous research the length of daily travel and the amount of car use in cities are influenced by urban density and residential location, thus focusing on urban sprawl as one of the main challenges for sustainable urban planning. However, during the last 10-15 years it has been more popular to settle in the inner city areas of Norwegian cities. This re-urbanisation has resulted in a sta...

  15. Impact assessment of El Nino and La Nina episodes on local/regional monsoon rainfall in India

    Large scale atmospheric circulation's and climatic anomalies have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather over many parts of the world. In the present paper an attempt has been made to examine regional monsoon dynamics in relation with El Nino and La Nina episodes. The investigation was earned out for the meteorological sub- division's comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of different locations in the region and corresponding data on El Nino and La Nina episodes for the period of 30 years (1970-99) were used for this investigation. During the El Nino episodes, various locations experienced excess rainfall in monsoon ranged between 11 and 22 percent. Under the influence of La Nina episodes, the probability of excess monsoon rainfall at different locations in the sub-division ranged between 13 and 25 percent. However, many locations viz., Hisar, Bhiwani, Gurgaon, Delhi and Chandigarh received deficient monsoon rainfall which was contrary to the global belief of the association between SST anomalies and rainfall distribution. No significant association was observed between El Nino and La Nina and monsoon rainfall at different locations in the entire sub-division. However, there was a strong relationship between these SST anomalies and all India monsoon rainfall over the period under study (1970-99). (author)

  16. Changes in the management and survival rates of patients with oral cancer: a 30-year single-institution study

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aim of the present study was to evaluate changes in the management and 5-year survival rates of patients with oral cancer in our department over a 30-year period. Materials and Methods We investigated the patient distributions, treatment methods, method of neck dissection according to cancer stage, and 5-year survival rates for 700 oral cancer patients over the periods of 1982–1996 (256 patients), 1999–2006 (248 patients), and 2007–2011 (196 patients). Results Stage IV patients were the largest group in all of the time periods evaluated. Although surgery and radiotherapy were the most common methods in all periods (over 50%), the prevalence of patients who underwent concomitant chemoradiotherapy increased from 7.0% to 16.2%. The use of radical neck dissection decreased from 43.0% to 5.3%, while conservative surgical methods increased from 24.1% to 76.3%. Lastly, the overall 5-year survival rate increased from 31.6% to 63.5% during the study period. Conclusion Although the 5-year survival rate reached the same level as that of other developed countries during the course of our study, most patients continue to come to the hospital with stage IV disease. In order to increase the 5-year survival rate of oral carcinoma, it may be necessary to improve public education and social efforts relevant to early diagnosis. PMID:26904492

  17. The Close AGN Reference Survey (CARS) - What is causing Mrk1018's return to the shadows after 30 years?

    Husemann, B; Tremblay, G R; Krumpe, M; Dexter, J; Busch, G; Combes, F; Croom, S M; Davis, T A; Eckart, A; McElroy, R E; Perez-Torres, M; Powell, M; Scharwächter, J

    2016-01-01

    We recently discovered that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) of Mrk 1018 has changed optical type again after 30 years as a type 1 AGN. Here we combine Chandra, NuStar, Swift, Hubble Space Telescope and ground-based observations to explore the cause of this change. The 2-10keV flux declines by a factor of ~8 between 2010 and 2016. We show with our X-ray observation that this is not caused by varying neutral hydrogen absorption along the line-of-sight up to the Compton-thick level. The optical-UV spectral energy distributions are well fit with a standard geometrically thin optically thick accretion disc model that seems to obey the expected $L\\sim T^4$ relation. It confirms that a decline in accretion disc luminosity is the primary origin for the type change. We detect a new narrow-line absorber in Lya blue-shifted by ~700km/s with respect to the systemic velocity of the galaxy. This new Lya absorber could be evidence for the onset of an outflow or a companion black hole with associated gas that could be rela...

  18. Organizing Principles of Human Cortical Development--Thickness and Area from 4 to 30 Years: Insights from Comparative Primate Neuroanatomy.

    Amlien, Inge K; Fjell, Anders M; Tamnes, Christian K; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Chaplin, Tristan A; Rosa, Marcello G P; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2016-01-01

    The human cerebral cortex undergoes a protracted, regionally heterogeneous development well into young adulthood. Cortical areas that expand the most during human development correspond to those that differ most markedly when the brains of macaque monkeys and humans are compared. However, it remains unclear to what extent this relationship derives from allometric scaling laws that apply to primate brains in general, or represents unique evolutionary adaptations. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the relationship only applies to surface area (SA), or also holds for cortical thickness (CT). In 331 participants aged 4 to 30, we calculated age functions of SA and CT, and examined the correspondence of human cortical development with macaque to human expansion, and with expansion across nonhuman primates. CT followed a linear negative age function from 4 to 30 years, while SA showed positive age functions until 12 years with little further development. Differential cortical expansion across primates was related to regional maturation of SA and CT, with age trajectories differing between high- and low-expanding cortical regions. This relationship adhered to allometric scaling laws rather than representing uniquely macaque-human differences: regional correspondence with human development was as large for expansion across nonhuman primates as between humans and macaque. PMID:25246511

  19. Pediatricorthopedics:glorious30yearsJI S%小儿骨科辉煌30年

    吉士俊; 郭源; 张立军

    2015-01-01

    Pediatric orthopedics got a great development in the past 30 years. The type-B ultrasonic became an important detection method for developmental dysplasia of the hip as a higher standard of living and neonate screening. The application of Ponseti method brought signiifcant curative effects in the treatment of congenital clubfoot. Minimally invasive treatment was realized in traumatic fracture. We have got some experience of Ilizarov technique which was used in limb lengthening. The development of the spinal surgery was fast because of applications of needles and sticks, and the effects of the deformity correction were satisfactory. With the help of chemotherapy, the survival rate of osteosarcoma in 5 years achieved 80% after salvage limb operation. Our professional staff should popularize the technique of pediatric orthopedics to meet the needs of 300 000 000 children. Professional surgeons should master more skills, strengthen the leaning ability and develop the collective intelligence in the diagnosis and treatment. We should emphasize scientiifc research and innovation, and improve the ability of scientiifc thinking. The humanistic care should be valued in clinical work. We all need to be communicative and serve the patients enthusiastically. Then, pediatric orthopedics will be more prosperous and lfourishing.

  20. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

    Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

  1. Sensitivity of a 30 year model climatology of Middle and Central America to resolution and atmosphere-ocean coupling

    Quintanar, A. I.; Sein, D.; Martinez Lopez, B.

    2013-05-01

    A 30 year climatology experiment has been completed with a regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model (REMO) over a vast region that covers latitude-wise the Middle and Central Americas up to Western Europe. The control simulation uses a horizontal resolution of 1 degree and REMO was forced at its lateral walls with ERA data for the period 1979-2010. The ocean model was initialized using previously integrated solutions from an atmospherically forced only ocean simulation. In order to gauge the impact that the atmosphere-ocean coupling had, an identical experiment was performed with prescribed SST for the same period. A couple of identical experiments but with a resolution of 1/2 degree were also performed to investigate the effect of horizontal spatial resolution. It is seen that model climatology is increasingly closer to observed precipitation climatology (compared to CRU data for that period) as the model goes from a SST-forced condition to one of full coupling and from coarser resolution to increasing resolution as well. Of note, is the significantly better representation of the ITZC annual latitudinal excursion over the Eastern Pacific Ocean corresponding to the onset of monsoon precipitation season over western Mexico.

  2. Treated versus non-treated subjects with depression from a 30-year cohort study: prevalence and clinical covariates.

    Hengartner, Michael P; Angst, Felix; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rössler, Wulf; Angst, Jules

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine prevalence rates of several components of depression (unipolar and bipolar major, minor, recurrent brief depression, and dysthymia) and to identify covariates of treatment. We analysed a representative population-based, long-term prospective cohort study from age 20 to 50. Across the seven semi-structured interviews, generalized estimating equations examined the associations between diagnoses and treatment status during the course. The results show that the mean annual treatment rate across 30 years in persons with MDE was 39.2%. The weighted treatment prevalence for any depressive disorder was 23.4% (15.7% for MDE, 4.3% for minor depressive disorders and 3.4% for non-diagnosed subjects). Persons were more likely to seek treatment as they grew older. Women with MDE had triple the treatment prevalence of men (23.8 vs. 7.4%). Variables of distress/suffering under depression (OR 1.36-1.52) and the number of diagnostic depressive symptoms (OR 1.47) were statistically significant predictors of treatment, as were episode duration (OR 2.21) and various variables assessing impairment due to depression (OR 4.65-8.02). In conclusion, only a minority of persons with depressive disorders seek professional treatment in the year of disorder onset. Women and subjects suffering from high levels of depressive symptoms, frequent episodes, long episode duration and consecutive high distress and impairment were more likely to seek treatment. PMID:26499773

  3. INSTABILITY OF THE TELECONNECTION OF SUMMER RAINFALLS BETWEEN NORTH CHINA AND INDIA

    HUANG Jian-bin; WANG Shao-wu

    2007-01-01

    Summer rainfall variations in North China closely relate to that in India. It seems that an alternation of signs of"+, -, +" exists in the geographical pattern of the correlation in summer rainfall from North China to India through the Tibetan Plateau. However, it appears that the teleconnection of summer rainfall variations between North China and India is unstable. Over 1945 - 1974, the correlation coefficient (hereafter as CC) is as large as 0.7. In contrast, the CC is about -0.3 over 1827-1856. Further studies, based on observations starting from 1813, showed that the correlation is strong when summer rainfalls in both North China and India are large, and vice versa. In order to find what induce the change of the teleconnection, variations of summer rainfall in both North China and India, mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the frequency of ENSO events were examined in relation to the change of the teleconnection. The result showed that the teleconnection appears weak when the mean SST is high and the frequency of La Ni(n)a events is low; the teleconnection is strong when the mean SST is low and the frequency of La Ni(n)a events is high. At last, it is notable that La Ni(n)a happens in only 3 years during the recent 30 years from 1976 to 2005 and the teleconnection becomes weak too.

  4. A Preliminary Study on Rainfall Interception Loss and Water Yield Analysis on Arabica Coffee Plants in Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia

    Reza Benara

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss from plants or trees can reduce a net rainfall as source of water yield. The amount of rainfall interception loss depends on kinds of plants and hydro-meteorological characteristics. Therefore, it is important to study rainfall interception loss such as from Arabica Coffee plantation which is as main agricultural commodity for Central Aceh Regency. In this study, rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plants was studied in Kebet Village of Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia from January 20 to March 9, 2011. Arabica coffee plants used in this study was 15 years old, height of 1.5 m and canopy of 4.567 m2. Rainfall interception loss was determined based on water balance approach of daily rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow data. Empirical regression equation between rainfall interception loss and rainfall were adopted as a model to estimate rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plantation, which the coefficient of correlation, r is 0.98. In water yield analysis, this formula was applied and founded that Arabica Coffee plants intercept 76% of annual rainfall or it leaved over annual net rainfall 24% of annual rainfall. Using this net rainfall, water yield produced from Paya Bener River which is the catchment area covered by Arabica Coffee plantation was analyzed in a planning of water supply project for water needs domestic of 3 sub-districts in Central Aceh Regency. Based on increasing population until year of 2025, the results showed that the water yield will be not enough from year of 2015. However, if the catchment area is covered by forest, the water yield is still enough until year of 2025

  5. Validation of satellite-derived rainfall products with rain gauges in Serbia

    Zlatanovic, Nikola; Stefanovic, Milutin; Milovanovic, Irina; Cotric, Jelena

    2015-04-01

    Four widely available satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRFE) were extensively validated and intercompared on daily, monthly and seasonal timescales, for a 10-year period (2001-2010), using fifteen rainfall stations in Serbia. The evaluated satellite products were divided into two groups according to data latency. The first group, near real-time products, included the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time product 3B42RT and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). The second group, post real-time products, included the TRMM 3B42 research product and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH). All satellite products were available at 0.25 degree spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, further aggregated into monthly and seasonal. Fifteen rain gauge stations throughout Serbia, operated by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, with available and reliable daily rainfall data for the time period 2001-2010 were selected for this study. The performance of different satellite-based rainfall estimation (SRFE) products was assessed using standard statistical methods to summarize the strength of the relationship between daily SRFE values and their corresponding ground observations, including the root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coeffient r, BIAS and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of daily, 10-day and monthly rainfall, and visual comparison methods. The results demonstrate that all evaluated products have significantly lower accuracy during the winter months (December to February) and highest accuracy in autumn months (September and October). In respect to performance, the TRMM research product showed best results overall, followed by the CMORPH and TRMM-RT realtime product. PERSIANN showed generally lower accuracy, except in the autumn season.

  6. The Rainfall and Rainfall Kinetic Energy Intensity-Duration of Landslides and Debris flow in Taiwan

    Chang, Jui-Ming; Chen, Hongey

    2016-04-01

    This research used Joss-Waldvogel Disdrometers (JWD) which set in Shiment catchment, Northern Taiwan and Chishan catchment, Southern Taiwan to record rainfall kinetic energy data, to find the relationship between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity in these two areas. The distance between the two areas is less than 150 km. These data help the researchers and showed that the equations of relationship were ekN =28.7* (1-0.7027*exp(-0.0395*I)) and ekS=27.4*(1-0.5954*exp(-0.0345*I)). Generally, rainfall kinetic energy in Northern Taiwan is higher than in Southern Taiwan during rainfall period. Also, the occurring time and rainfall records of 143 landslide events from 2006 to 2012 were analyzed. The rainfall-intensity (I-D) relationship could be used to build rainfall threshold which were IN=15.13 D‑0.28 and IS=47.58 D‑0.35. In brief, the rainfall feature in landslide of Northern Taiwan had low rainfall intensity, long rainfall duration and low average accumulative rainfall. By combining rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall threshold, rainfall kinetic energy threshold could be established, which were ¯E N=13.83 D‑0.04 and ¯E S =15.59 D‑0.02. The results showed that not only for rainfall but also for rainfall kinetic energy threshold, the values of thresholds in North were lower than those in South. Due to impaction energy of rainfall to ground surface, rainfall kinetic energy would not forever increase. Therefore, rainfall kinetic energy threshold is also a useful tool for landslide warning. Key words: Rainfall kinetic energy, Rainfall threshold, Rainfall kinetic energy threshold, Landslide

  7. Toothbrushing: Do It Daily.

    Texas Child Care, 1993

    1993-01-01

    Offers a practical guide for promoting daily toothbrushing in young children. Discusses the importance of proper dental care, explains the causes of tooth decay, describes proper dental care for infants and young children, recommends materials and teaching methods, and discusses visits to the dentist and the benefits of fluoride for dental health.…

  8. Cancer risk in patients aged 30 years and above with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetic monotherapy: a cohort study using metformin as the comparator

    Chen YC

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Ching Chen,1 Victor C Kok,1,2 Ching-Hsuan Chien,1 Jorng-Tzong Horng,1,3 Jeffrey J P Tsai11Department of Biomedical Informatics, Asia University, Taichung, 2Department of Internal Medicine, Kuang Tien General Hospital, Taichung, 3Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Central University, Jhongli, TaiwanIntroduction: Accumulating evidence suggests that metformin reduces incident cancer development. Few cohort studies have evaluated the risk of subsequent cancer development in diabetic cohorts receiving antidiabetic monotherapy. We conducted a population-based study in patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes treated with antidiabetic monotherapy.Methods: We identified a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetics aged ≥30 years receiving hypoglycemic monotherapy (n=7,325 from the 1998–2007 Longitudinal Health Insurance Dataset. Patients were grouped according to the antidiabetic therapy they received into metformin (n=2,223, sulfonylurea (n=3,965, glitazone (n=53, meglitinide (n=128, acarbose (n=150, and insulin (n=806 groups. Patients with preexisting cancer were excluded. All patients were followed up until cancer development, dropout, death, or until December 31, 2008. Cox’s model was used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs adjusted for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking-related comorbidities, alcohol use disorders, morbid obesity, pancreatitis, hypertension, monthly income, and urbanization level. The log-rank test was used to compare cumulative cancer incidence. Two-sided P-values <0.05 were required to reject the null hypothesis.Results: The overall median follow-up duration was 2.5 years (interquartile range, 3.6 years. Totally, 367 and 124 cancers developed in the sulfonylurea and metformin groups, respectively, representing an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11–1.67; P<0.005. No significant differences were observed between other groups. Increased adjusted HRs

  9. Adult neurobehavioral outcome of hyperbilirubinemia in full term neonates—a 30 year prospective follow-up study

    Laura Hokkanen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (HB may cause severe neurological damage, but serious consequences are effectively controlled by phototherapy and blood exchange transfusion. HB is still a serious health problem in economically compromised parts of the world. The long term outcome has been regarded favorable based on epidemiological data, but has not been confirmed in prospective follow-up studies extending to adulthood. Methods. We studied the long term consequences of HB in a prospective birth cohort of 128 HB cases and 82 controls. The cases are part of a neonatal at-risk cohort (n = 1196 that has been followed up to 30 years of age. HB cases were newborns ≥ 2500 g birth weight and ≥ 37 weeks of gestation who had bilirubin concentrations > 340 µmol/l or required blood exchange transfusion. Subjects with HB were divided into subgroups based on the presence (affected HB or absence (unaffected HB of diagnosed neurobehavioral disorders in childhood, and compared with healthy controls. Subjects were seen at discharge, 5, 9 and 16 years of life and parent’s and teacher’s assessments were recorded. At 30 years they filled a questionnaire about academic and occupational achievement, life satisfaction, somatic and psychiatric symptoms including a ADHD self-rating score. Cognitive functioning was tested using ITPA, WISC, and reading and writing tests at 9 years of life. Results. Compared to controls, the odds for a child with HB having neurobehavioral symptoms at 9 years was elevated (OR = 4.68. Forty-five per cent of the HB group were affected by cognitive abnormalities in childhood and continued to experience problems in adulthood. This was apparent in academic achievement (p < 0.0001 and the ability to complete secondary (p < 0.0001 and tertiary (p < 0.004 education. Also, the subgroup of affected HB reported persisting cognitive complaints e.g., problems with reading, writing and mathematics. Childhood symptoms of hyperactivity

  10. Rainfall intensity and groundwater recharge: empirical evidence from the Upper Nile Basin

    Changes in the intensity of precipitation as a result of global warming are expected to be especially pronounced in the tropics. The impact of changing rainfall intensities on groundwater recharge remains, however, unclear. Analysis of a recently compiled data set of coincidental, daily observations of rainfall and groundwater levels remote from abstraction for four stations in the Upper Nile Basin over the period 1999-2008 shows that the magnitude of observed recharge events is better related to the sum of heavy rainfalls, exceeding a threshold of 10 mm day-1, than to that of all daily rainfall events. Consequently, projected increases in rainfall intensities as a result of global warming may promote rather than restrict groundwater recharge in similar environments of the tropics. Further monitoring and research are required to test the robustness of these findings, but the evidence presented is consistent with recent modelling highlighting the importance of explicitly considering changing rainfall intensities in the assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge.

  11. The distribution and trends of fog and haze in the North China Plain over the past 30 years

    G. Q. Fu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequent low visibility, haze and fog events were found in the North China Plain (NCP. Data throughout the NCP during the past 30 years were examined to determine the horizontal distribution and decadal trends of low visibility, haze and fog events. The impact of meteorological factors such as wind and RH on those events was investigated. Results reveal distinct distributions of haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Low visibility, haze and fog days all display increasing trends of before 1995, a steady stage during 1995–2003 and a drastically drop thereafter. All three events occurred most frequently during the heating season. Benefiting from emission control measures, haze and fog both show decreasing trends in winter during the past 3 decades, while summertime haze displays continuous increasing trends. The distribution of wind speed and wind direction as well as the topography within the NCP has determinative impacts on the distribution of haze and fog. Weakened south-easterly winds in the southern part of the NCP has resulted in high pollutant concentrations and frequent haze events along the foot of the Taihang Mountains. The orographic wind convergence zone in the central band area of the southern NCP is responsible for the frequent fog events in this region. Wind speed has been decreasing throughout the entire southern NCP, resulting in more stable atmospheric conditions and weaker dispersion abilities, calling for harder efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events. Haze events are strongly influenced by the ambient RH. RH values associated with haze days are evidently increasing, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events are caused by the hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loadings.

  12. 30 years of change in understory plant communities along the Tanana River, Alaska: Revisiting the concept of turning points

    Hollingsworth, T. N.; Lloyd, A. H.; Ruess, R. W.; Viereck, L. A.; Charlton, B. A.

    2008-12-01

    In interior Alaska, the most productive forests occur along the floodplain of the glacially fed Tanana River. The Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (BCEF) is located approximately 20 km southwest of Fairbanks, Alaska and was established in 1963 to include representative floodplain forests along the Tanana River. Both the sequence and the mechanisms of succession have been relatively well studied along the Tanana River, where biological and physical "turning points" are hypothesized to be the main proponents of plant community succession. However, prior research has concentrated almost exclusively on four dominant woody taxa: willows, thin-leaf alder, balsam poplar, and white spruce. Comparatively little is known about successional changes in the understory taxa, including shrubs, herbaceous vascular plants, and nonvascular mosses and lichens. Long-term monitoring in BCEF not only provides a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between vegetation and climate over a 30-year period, but also increases our knowledge and understanding about floodplain successional dynamics. Here, we analyze vegetation and climate data collected since 1977 located in the BCEF at the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research (BNZ- LTER) site in order to address the following questions: 1) Are there identifiable understory turning points that mirror the overstory changes in succession? 2) Have changes in climate been manifested in unexpected understory vegetation changes? When examining understory vegetation, we found that the sites established in the 1970s rarely follow the traditional succesional paradigm. In addition, we found changes in functional abundance and diversity in late succesional stands that could indicate vegetation patterns related to associated changes in climate.

  13. 30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake.

    Mariam Molokhia

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years. METHODS: Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death. RESULTS: Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages 160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69, and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07. The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57, severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95, diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67 and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26, however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males, diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.

  14. Prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors in adults aged 30 years and above in a rural population in Pakistan

    Uncorrected refractive errors are a leading cause of visual disability globally. This population-based study was done to estimate the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors in adults aged 30 years and above of village Pawakah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan. Methods: It was a cross-sectional survey in which 1000 individuals were included randomly. All the individuals were screened for uncorrected refractive errors and those whose visual acuity (VA) was found to be less than 6/6 were refracted. In whom refraction was found to be unsatisfactory (i.e., a best corrected visual acuity of <6/6) further examination was done to establish the cause for the subnormal vision. Results: A total of 917 subjects participated in the survey (response rate 92%). The prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors was found to be 23.97% among males and 20% among females. The prevalence of visually disabling refractive errors was 6.89% in males and 5.71% in females. The prevalence was seen to increase with age, with maximum prevalence in 51-60 years age group. Hypermetropia (10.14%) was found to be the commonest refractive error followed by Myopia (6.00%) and Astigmatism (5.6%). The prevalence of Presbyopia was 57.5% (60.45% in males and 55.23% in females). Poor affordability was the commonest barrier to the use of spectacles, followed by unawareness. Cataract was the commonest reason for impaired vision after refractive correction. The prevalence of blindness was 1.96% (1.53% in males and 2.28% in females) in this community with cataract as the commonest cause. Conclusions: Despite being the most easily avoidable cause of subnormal vision uncorrected refractive errors still account for a major proportion of the burden of decreased vision in this area. Effective measures for the screening and affordable correction of uncorrected refractive errors need to be incorporated into the health care delivery system. (author)

  15. Prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction following severe burns: A summary of recent 30-year clinical experience

    Shi-Chu Xiao, Shi-Hui Zhu, Zhao-Fan Xia, Wei Lu, Guang-Qing Wang, Dao-Feng Ben, Guang-Yi Wang, Da-Sheng Cheng

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To sum up the recent 30-year experience in the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction in severe burn patients, and propose practicable guidelines for the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal (GI dysfunction.METHODS: From 1980 to 2007, a total of 219 patients with large area and extraordinarily large area burns (LAB were admitted, who were classified into three stages according the therapeutic protocols used at the time: Stage 1 from 1980 to 1989, stage 2 from 1990 to 1995, and stage 3 from 1996 to 2007. The occurrence and mortality of GI dysfunction in patients of the three stages were calculated and the main causes were analyzed.RESULTS: The occurrence of stress ulcer in patients with LAB was 8.6% in stage 1, which was significantly lower than that in stage 1 (P < 0.05. No massive hemorrhage from severe stress ulcer and enterogenic infections occurred in stages 2 and 3. The occurrence of abdominal distension and stress ulcer and the mortality in stage 3 patients with extraordinarily LAB was 7.1%, 21.4% and 28.5%, respectively, which were significantly lower than those in stage 1 patients (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01, and the occurrence of stress ulcer was also significantly lower than that in stage 2 patients (P < 0.05.CONCLUSION: Comprehensive fluid resuscitation, early excision of necrotic tissue, staged food ingestion, and administration of specific nutrients are essential strategies for preventing gastrointestinal complications and lowering mortality in severely burned patients.

  16. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

    Yinping Long

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  17. THE ESSENTIALS OF RAINFALL DERIVATIVES AND INSURANCE

    Turvey, Calum G.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of rainfall insurance to manage agricultural production risks. A number of rainfall insurance products are presented along with a raitonal model which identifies the economics of rainfall. The use of rainfall insurance will increase in future years as capital markets, financial institutions, reinsurance companies, crop insurance companies, and hedge funds collectively organize to share and distribute weather risks. The focus of this paper is in fact directed to...

  18. Daily number of fractures is associated with road temperature in an urban area

    Jantzen, Christopher; Jørgensen, Henrik L; Thomsen, Morten;

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Different factors related to winter are known to influence the fracture incidence, but little is known about the effect of road surface temperature. This study examines the association between road surface temperature and the daily number of fractures in an urban area during two...... significant decrease in the daily number of fractures for patients < 15 years, whereas patients > 30 years experienced a significant increase. CONCLUSION: Decreasing road temperature results in increased numbers of all fractures except hip fractures. Low temperatures is a risk factor for patients > 30 years......,938 fractures) were treated during the study periods. The daily number of distal radius, humeral and ankle fractures increased significantly with decreasing road surface temperature and the presence of IA. For hip fractures no significant association was found. Decreasing temperature was associated with a...

  19. Making Daily Mobility

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    , social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing on...... mobilities theory (Urry 2007; Larsen et al. 2006) and practice theory (Schatzki 2001; Reckwitz 2002; Shove et al. 2012) this paper seeks to unfold a theoretical framework for understanding of the household’s mobility coping strategies and how these strategies are actualised and materialised into mobility...... Denmark as well as seven days of GPS trackings of each family member. The paper unpacks how the household member’s daily practices are more than individual accomplishments carried out in isolation, but coordinated and performed in relation to other members. Drawing on practice theory, the daily practices...

  20. Use of Argon, Corona, and Landsat imagery to assess 30 years of land resource changes in west-central Senegal

    Tappan, G. Gray; Hadj, Amadou; Wood, Eric C.; Lietzow, Ronald W.

    2000-01-01

    Over the past 35 years, an agricultural area of west-central Senegal has experienced rapid population growth, fast expansion of agricultural lands, a decline in rainfall, and degradation of vegetative and soil resources. Although such changes have not escaped the attention of Senegal's people, its government, and the scientific community the ability to monitor and quantify land resource trends of recent decades has been difficult. Recently available high-resolution satellite photographs from the American Argon and Corona Programs provide coverage of Senegal back to 1963. The photographs make it possible to study and map land resources at the beginning of the Space Age. In this study, we characterize the changes that have occurred in the region from the early 1960s to the mid-1 990s. Early Argon and Corona photographs are used to reconstruct the historical land use and land cover; comparisons are made with assessments from recent Landsat images. Field studies and aerial surveys provide additional insight. The forces of change, driven primarily by population growth and unsustainable agricultural practices, are examined

  1. Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

    Mondal, Arpita; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-02-01

    Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1° latitude × 1° longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of non-stationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding.

  2. Dynamic Rainfall Patterns and the Simulation of Changing Scenarios: A behavioral watershed response

    Chu, M.; Guzman, J.; Steiner, J. L.; Hou, C.; Moriasi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall is one of the fundamental drivers that control hydrologic responses including runoff production and transport phenomena that consequently drive changes in aquatic ecosystems. Quantifying the hydrologic responses to changing scenarios (e.g., climate, land use, and management) using environmental models requires a realistic representation of probable rainfall in its most sensible spatio-temporal dimensions matching that of the phenomenon under investigation. Downscaling projected rainfall from global circulation models (GCMs) is the most common practice in deriving rainfall datasets to be used as main inputs to hydrologic models which in turn are used to assess the impacts of climate changes on ecosystems. Downscaling assumes that local climate is a combination of large-scale climatic/atmospheric conditions and local conditions. However, the representation of the latter is generally beyond the capacity of current GCMs. The main objective of this study was to develop and implement a synthetic rainfall generator to downscale expected rainfall trends to 1 x 1 km rainfall daily patterns that mimic the dynamic propagation of probability distribution functions (pdf) derived from historic rainfall data (rain-gauge or radar estimated). Future projections were determined based on actual and expected changes in the pdf and stochastic processes to account for variability. Watershed responses in terms of streamflow and nutrients loads were evaluated using synthetically generated rainfall patterns and actual data. The framework developed in this study will allow practitioners to generate rainfall datasets that mimic the temporal and spatial patterns exclusive to their study area under full disclosure of the uncertainties involved. This is expected to provide significantly more accurate environmental models than is currently available and would provide practitioners with ways to evaluate the spectrum of systemic responses to changing scenarios.

  3. Applying Multiscale Entropy to the Complexity Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Relationships

    Chien-Ming Chou

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel framework for the complexity analysis of rainfall, runoff, and runoff coefficient (RC time series using multiscale entropy (MSE. The MSE analysis of RC time series was used to investigate changes in the complexity of rainfall-runoff processes due to human activities. Firstly, a coarse graining process was applied to a time series. The sample entropy was then computed for each coarse-grained time series, and plotted as a function of the scale factor. The proposed method was tested in a case study of daily rainfall and runoff data for the upstream Wu–Tu watershed. Results show that the entropy measures of rainfall time series are higher than those of runoff time series at all scale factors. The entropy measures of the RC time series are between the entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series at various scale factors. Results also show that the entropy values of rainfall, runoff, and RC time series increase as scale factors increase. The changes in the complexity of RC time series indicate the changes of rainfall-runoff relations due to human activities and provide a reference for the selection of rainfall-runoff models that are capable of dealing with great complexity and take into account of obvious self-similarity can be suggested to the modeling of rainfall-runoff processes. Moreover, the robustness of the MSE results were tested to confirm that MSE analysis is consistent and the same results when removing 25% data, making this approach suitable for the complexity analysis of rainfall, runoff, and RC time series.

  4. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

    Umar M. Bibi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  5. Improving long-term, retrospective precipitation datasets using satellite-based surface soil moisture retrievals and the soil moisture analysis rainfall tool (SMART)

    Using historical satellite surface soil moisture products, the Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool (SMART) is applied to improve the accuracy of a multi-decadal global daily rainfall product that has been bias-corrected to match the monthly totals of available ground observations. In order to adapt...

  6. On extreme rainfall intensity increases with air temperature

    Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    The water vapour holding capacity of air increases at about 7% per degree C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This is one of the arguments why a warmer future atmosphere, being able to hold more moisture, will generate higher extreme precipitation intensities. However, several empirical studies have recently demonstrated an increase in extreme rain intensities with air temperature above CC rates, in the range 7-14% per degree C worldwide (called super-CC rates). This was observed especially for shorter duration rainfall, i.e. in hourly and finer resolution data (e.g. review in Westra et al., 2014). The super-CC rate was attributed to positive feedbacks between water vapour and the updraft dynamics in convective clouds and lateral supply (convergence) of moisture. In addition, mixing of storm types was shown to be potentially responsible for super-CC rates in empirical studies. Assuming that convective events are accompanied by lightning, we will show on a large rainfall dataset in Switzerland (30 year records of 10-min and 1-hr data from 59 stations) that while the average rate of increase in extreme rainfall intensity (95th percentile) is 6-7% in no-lightning events and 8-9% in lightning events, it is 11-13% per degree C when all events are combined (Molnar et al., 2015). These results are relevant for climate change studies which predict shifts in storm types in a warmer climate in some parts of the world. The observation that extreme rain intensity and air temperature are positively correlated has consequences for the stochastic modelling of rainfall. Most current stochastic models do not explicitly include a direct rain intensity-air temperature dependency beyond applying factors of change predicted by climate models to basic statistics of precipitation. Including this dependency explicitly in stochastic models will allow, for example in the nested modelling approach of Paschalis et al. (2014), the random cascade disaggregation routine to be

  7. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...... technology. In this study different bias adjustment techniques is investigated, developing a complete 10-year dataset (2002–2012) of high spatio-temporal resolution radar rainfall based on a radar observations from a single C-band radar from Denmark. Results show that hourly adjustment mean field bias...... adjustment outperform daily mean field bias adjustment with regards to estimation of rainfall totals and peak rain rates. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that radar rainfall estimates can be improved significantly by implementation of a novel advection interpolation technique....

  8. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  9. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    Engelbrecht, Christien J.; Landman, Willem A.

    2016-07-01

    The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.

  10. How well do CORDEX models simulate extreme rainfall events over the East Coast of South Africa?

    Abba Omar, Sabina; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

    2016-01-01

    This study assesses the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the characteristics of widespread extreme rainfall events over the East Coast of South Africa. Simulations of nine RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analyzed for the study. All the simulations cover 12 years (1996-2008). Using the 95th percentile of daily rainfall as the threshold of extreme events and the simultaneous occurrence of extreme events over 50 % of the East Coast as widespread extreme events (WERE), we compared the characteristics of simulated WERE with observations (GPCP and TRMM) and with the reanalysis (ERAINT) that forced the simulations. Most RCMs perform well in simulating the seasonal variation of WEREs over the East Coast but perform poorly in simulating the interannual variability. Based on their rainfall synoptic patterns over Southern Africa, the WEREs in the East Coast can be generally classified into four groups. The first group connects the WEREs with tropical rainfall activities over the subcontinent. The second group links WEREs with frontal rainfall south of the subcontinent. The third group links the WEREs with both tropical and temperate rainfall activities while the fourth group represents isolated WEREs. The RCMs show different capabilities in simulating the frequency of WERE in each group, some perform better than ERAINT while some perform worse. Results of this study could provide information on the usability of RCMs in downscaling the impact of climate change on widespread extreme rainfall events over South Africa.

  11. PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF HYPERTENSION AMONG ADULTS AGED 30 YEARS AND ABOVE IN A RURAL DWELLING OF KOTTAYAM, KERALA

    Anand

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available : INTRODUCTION: Rising prevalence of hypertension is a major public health challenge in India especially in Kerala. This cross sectional study was done to assess the prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in a rural population of Kottayam, Kerala. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Community based cross sectional study was carried out among 400 adults aged 30 years and above in a randomly selected ward of Ettumanoor panchayath, which is the field practice area of Govt. Medical college, Kottayam. A pretested semi structured questionnaire was used to collect information regarding socio demographic and behavioral factors. Standardized sphygmomanometric blood pressure measurement was taken by trained team members twice for each individual and the average of the two was taken as blood pressure. Anthropometric measurements were also done. A systolic blood pressure of ≥140mm of Hg and or diastolic BP≥90mm of Hg was regarded as hypertension. Data analysis was done using the software Epi-info version 3.4.3. Chi square test revealed the association between hypertension (dependent variable and other socio demographic and behavioural factors (independent variable. A p-value of <0.05 was taken as significant. All the significant variables are included in the binary logistic regression to find out Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR RESULTS: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 35% (males-33.8% females -35.6%. The variables which evolved as significant and remained so in binary logistic regression analysis were single status after marriage/ unmarried (AOR-2.45 95% CI 1.38-4.38, low educational status (AOR- 2.31, 95%CI-1.46-3.64, family history of hypertension (AOR-1.85 95%CI-1.2-2.85 and trunkal obesity in females (AOR-2.41 95%CI-1.37-4.24 CONCLUSION: The present study revealed the prevalence (35% and risk factors for hypertension in the study area. The results of the study can be used to develop messages to make the people aware of the problem of hypertension

  12. A 30-Year Multi-Sensor Vegetation Index and Land Surface Phenology Data Record: Methods Challenges and Potentials

    Didan, K.; Barreto-munoz, A.; Miura, T.; Tsend-Ayush, J.

    2013-12-01

    30 years of Earth surface observation. Now in its third generation (V3) this record is capable of supporting environmental, resources management and climate studies as well provide for the parameterization of various ecosystem and climate models. All data are public and are available via a highly interactive online tool, the VIP Data Explorer (vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer.php) and concurrently via the LP-DAAC.

  13. Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

    Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

  14. Serum TSH, thyroglobulin, and thyroid disorders in atomic bomb survivors exposed in youth: a study 30 years after exposure

    A study of individuals in Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were under 20 years of age at the time of atomic bomb exposure and who had been exposed to 100+ rad was conducted to determine the frequency of thyroid disorders as well as the levels of serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), antithyroglobulin antibody, and thyroglobulin (TG), 30 years after exposure. Thyroid disorders were detected in 56 of the 477 subjects of the 100+ rad exposed group and in 39 of the 501 subjects of the 0 rad exposed group, the prevalence being significantly higher in the former group (X2 = 3.872, P = 0.049). This increased prevalence of thyroid disorders in the 100+ rad exposed group was due to the increased occurrence of thyroid cancer and nontoxic uninodular goiter. Thyroid cancer was found in eight exposed individuals, all of whom belonged to the 100+ rad group; statistically, the prevalence was significantly higher (X2 = 7.919, P = 0.005). Nontoxic uninodular goiter was observed in 13 cases of the 100+ rad exposed group and 3 cases of the 0 rad exposed group, the prevalence in the 100+ rad exposed group being significantly higher (X2 = 6.584, P = 0.010). In these cases no increase of serum TSH or TG levels was observed. Mean serum TSH levels in individuals without thyroid disorders were 1.64 ± 1.89 μU/ml (n = 421) in the 100+ rad exposed group and 1.54 ± 1.86 μU/ml (n = 462) in the 0 rad exposed group. Mean serum TG levels were 13.49 ± 13.88 ng/ml (n = 421) in the 100+ rad exposed group and 14.76 ± 15.69 ng/ml (n = 462) in the 0 rad exposed group. Thus, these differences between the two groups were not significant. Also, no significant differences were observed between the 100+ rad and 0 rad exposed groups in the mean serum TSH and TG levels of the subjects who had thyroid diseases but had not been treated for the diseases, and the subjects who had no thyroid diseases. (J.P.N.)

  15. Uranium speciation in 30-year old Freital mine tailings: an EXAFS, μ-XRD, and μ-XRF study

    Full text of publication follows: Risk assessments of actinide-contaminated soils and sediments require detailed knowledge of actinide speciation and its long-term kinetics. Former Saxonian mine tailings, which have been covered but else left undisturbed, are ideally suited to study changes in uranium speciation over timescales of decades. We investigated the major uranium species in two samples from buried mine tailings using a combination of Synchrotron-based microfocus-techniques (μ-XRF, μ-XRD with micrometer resolution), bulk EXAFS spectroscopy, and chemical extractions. In sample F1 (5 m depth, oxic, pH 8, U = 440 mg/kg, high Ca, S, Pb, Cu, Zn concentrations), uranium is diffusely distributed among aggregates of layer silicates (muscovite, illite and kaolinite). The chemical extractions and EXAFS results confirm that uranium is sorbed to these minerals, but is not incorporated into their crystal structure. Sorption is also in line with the high pH and low carbonate concentrations in pore water. In sample F3 (12 m depth, oxic, pH 4, U = 430 mg/kg), the combination of μ-XRF and μ-XRD enabled us to identify several U(IV) and U(VI) containing minerals like coffinite, uraninite, uranyl hydroxide, and vanuralite. Only a minor part of U is sorbed to layer silicates as confirmed by chemical extractions and EXAFS spectroscopy. At smaller depth (F1, 5 m), sulfuric acid from the ore extraction procedure was completely neutralized by the construction waste used as cover material, resulting in precipitation of jarosite and gypsum. Even 30 years after the ore extraction, uranium remains highly soluble. At greater depth (F3, 12 m), the low pH from ore extraction was conserved. The presence of U(IV) minerals suggest either precipitation of secondary (IV) minerals due to microbial redox activity, or incomplete dissolution of primary (IV) minerals due to ore processing inefficiency of these older sediments. The U(IV) minerals were recalcitrant during chemical extractions

  16. Periods of high intensity rainfall and the safety of the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant

    The high precipitation rates aggravate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), as determined by probabilistic risk assessment. A 30-year rainfall series was analysed, aiming at calculating the probability of occurring a given amount q of precipitation during a certain period of n days. The nine highest precipitation amounts have also been determined. The results show there was a rainier climate in the '50 s and '60 s than in the '70 s and '80 s. The risk of catastrophic landslide has been enhanced as an environmental impact of the construction of the Rio-Santos highway and NPP which have not yet gone through an abnormal rainfall period. It has been suggested that criteria should be established to reduce the nuclear power and shut down the reactor when the precipitation accumulates to a dangerous limit. (author)

  17. Runoff and mass-balance simulations from the Greenland Ice Sheet at Kangerlussuaq (Søndre Strømfjord) in a 30-year perspective, 1979-2008

    S. H. Mernild; G. E. Liston; Steffen, K.; van den Broeke, M. R.; B. Hasholt

    2010-01-01

    This study provides insights into surface mass-balance (SMB) and runoff exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/1979–2007/2008) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a sno...

  18. Runoff and mass-balance simulations from the Greenland Ice Sheet at Kangerlussuaq (Søndre Strømfjord) in a 30-year perspective, 1979–2008

    S. H. Mernild; G. E. Liston; Steffen, K.; M. van der Broeke; B. Hasholt

    2010-01-01

    This study provides insights into surface mass-balance (SMB) and runoff exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/1979–2007/2008) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface m...

  19. Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

    Tošić, Ivana; Unkašević, Miroslava; Putniković, Suzana

    2016-02-01

    The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961-2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961-2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961-2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

  20. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar

    2004-06-01

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  1. Radiation in daily life

    The medical community benefits on a daily basis from the ionizing radiations used in the diagnosis and treatment of disease. The doses received in the medical field are only a small fraction of the total radiation received in a year. This bibliographic review has several objectives. The first one is to present the different components of natural radiation (background radiation). Secondly, it will introduce many consumer products that contain radioactive sources and expose our bodies. Third, arguments to diminish the radiation phobia will be presented and finally an easy to understand dosimetric magnitude will be introduced for the physician, the technologist and the patient. (author)

  2. Basque Country as Alternative Media laboratory. Compilation of the most interesting experiences for the last 30 years

    Txema Ramírez-de-la-Piscina

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is an overview of the general situation of Alternative Media in the Basque Country, concentrating on a specific communication project: the pirate radio Hala Bedi Irratia, a tolerated but not completely legal radio station, which in 2008 celebrated its 25th anniversary. The station has thousands of listeners daily and it broadcasts 24 hours a day. It survives thanks to the voluntary work of dozens of social communicators. They have never included a paid advertisement on their air waves, nor have they asked for a grant from the State. Nevertheless, the project is very much alive. The station is based on a very wide social network which supports it, and on a very intelligent use of new technologies.

  3. Trends of the daily intensity of precipitation in Italy and teleconnections

    Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution are studied by analyzing a daily precipitation data set covering the last 120 years for Italy. Data were homogenized on daily basis and completed by means of statistical methods. The following parameters were analyzed for each station record and averaged into some regional series for a synthetic description of the results: seasonal and yearly total precipitation, number of wet days, precipitation intensity and proportion and frequency of daily rainfall amounts, belonging to 6 precipitation class-intervals, defined on the basis of some percentiles of the precipitation distribution

  4. Analysis of meteorological trigger conditions for torrential processes on a daily time scale

    Braun, Martin; Kaitna, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Floods, intensive bedload transport, debris floods, and debris flows represent a severe hazard in torrent catchments in Alpine regions. These processes are expected to be mostly triggered by intensive, localized thunderstorm events or long lasting low-pressure systems. For forecasting debris flow hazards and estimation of potential changes due to climate change, identification of meteorological trigger conditions is of interest. In this study we investigate meteorological trigger conditions of torrential events recorded in Austria. The analysis is based on daily rainfall and temperature data. In total 7617 events and 1032 data-sets from meteorological stations, distributed over a region of approximately 80,000 km², and dating back until the year 1874, are available for analysis. Nearest stations to event as well as a weighted distance approach were combined with a Bayesian analysis to determine typical trigger conditions in different alpine settings. While according to Bayesian analysis the majority of debris flows is likely to be triggered by short rainfall events with an intensity of 60-70 mm/day, the signal for debris floods is less clear. Thresholds for debris floods tend to show higher rainfall intensities of 70-100 mm/day as prerequisites, but also a significant amount was caused by longer rainfall durations up to two days. Furthermore, the total event rainfall plays a higher role compared to debris flows. Intensive bedload transport shows a more complex relationship with a typical triggering event rainfall between 150 and 200 mm and rainfall intensities exceeding 100 mm/day. Flood events are mainly caused by a complex combination of influencing factors with different combinations of triggering event rainfall, high rainfall intensities and rainfall duration. The results of our study contribute to an improved understanding of torrential activity in the Alps and examine the influence of rainfall conditions on different types of torrential events.

  5. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with

  6. A new method of rainfall temporal downscaling: a case study on sanmenxia station in the Yellow River Basin

    Chen, G. F.; Qin, D. Y.; Ye, R; Guo, Y. X.; Wang, H.

    2011-01-01

    Distributed hydrological models are effective tools for Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB). The rainfall input uncertainty is an important source of hydrological model uncertainty. With the improvement of hydrological model accuracy, the requirements of the accuracy of input data are correspondingly improved. Daily rainfall data is the most common data that the researchers can get, however this cannot satisfy the requirement of hydrological simulation. Therefore, researche...

  7. Estimation of spatial-temporal rainfall distribution using remote sensing techniques: A case study of Makanya catchment, Tanzania

    Jeniffer, Kinoti; Su, Zhongbo; Woldai, Tsahaei; Maathuis, Ben

    Rainfall-runoff modeling provides an opportunity to easily simulate the response of a watershed, thus providing an option for sustainable water resources management particularly in dry regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Analysis of rainfall-runoff relationships in a catchment forms the basis of hydrological modeling. However, rainfall is a highly dynamic process, constantly changing in form and intensity as it passes over a given area. Traditionally, rainfall is measured using limited rain gauges at ground stations and often, the dynamics are not captured and yet it is the main input variable in any hydrological modeling. Without improved rainfall estimation, flow discharge estimates from rainfall-runoff relationship in both gauged and ungauged catchments particularly in arid and semi-arid regions remain a major challenge. Application of remote sensing information becomes crucial in the process of estimating rainfall patterns of these areas. The estimation of rainfall in this study was based on the blending of the geostationary MeteoSat Second Generation (MSG), infrared channel with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and microwave channel satellite data. To combine these two satellite data, a regression function associated with a threshold as an upper cloud temperature limit where rain occurs was determined. In this way, Makanya catchment rainfall maps (daily, monthly, and seasonal) with 3 km pixel size from 2004 to 2006 were generated by aggregating the 15 min rainfall values. Comparison of the results obtained from the blended TRMM-MSG with the available ground gauge data for 2004 and 2005 periods, gave a good correlation of about 80%. In conclusion, the developed TRMM-MSG blending procedure was found to be a reliable and robust way of obtaining spatial-temporal rainfall distribution of a given area and particularly so for arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) such as Makanya with sparse data acquisition networks.

  8. Rainfall erosivity in catchments contaminated with fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

    Laceby, J. Patrick; Chartin, Caroline; Evrard, Olivier; Onda, Yuichi; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Cerdan, Olivier

    2016-06-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011 resulted in the fallout of significant quantities of radiocesium over the Fukushima region. After reaching the soil surface, radiocesium is quickly bound to fine soil particles. Thereafter, rainfall and snowmelt run-off events transfer particle-bound radiocesium downstream. Characterizing the precipitation regime of the fallout-impacted region is thus important for understanding post-deposition radiocesium dynamics. Accordingly, 10 min (1995-2015) and daily precipitation data (1977-2015) from 42 meteorological stations within a 100 km radius of the FDNPP were analyzed. Monthly rainfall erosivity maps were developed to depict the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall erosivity for catchments entirely contained within this radius. The mean average precipitation in the region surrounding the FDNPP is 1420 mm yr-1 (SD 235) with a mean rainfall erosivity of 3696 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 1327). Tropical cyclones contribute 22 % of the precipitation (422 mm yr-1) and 40 % of the rainfall erosivity (1462 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 637)). The majority of precipitation (60 %) and rainfall erosivity (82 %) occurs between June and October. At a regional scale, rainfall erosivity increases from the north to the south during July and August, the most erosive months. For the remainder of the year, this gradient occurs mostly from northwest to southeast. Relief features strongly influence the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity at a smaller scale, with the coastal plains and coastal mountain range having greater rainfall erosivity than the inland Abukuma River valley. Understanding these patterns, particularly their spatial and temporal (both inter- and intraannual) variation, is important for contextualizing soil and particle-bound radiocesium transfers in the Fukushima region. Moreover, understanding the impact of tropical cyclones will be important for managing sediment and sediment-bound contaminant

  9. Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

  10. High-affinity human leucocyte antigen class I binding variola-derived peptides induce CD4(+) T cell responses more than 30 years post-vaccinia virus vaccination

    Wang, M.; Tang, Sheila Tuyet; Lund, Ole; Dziegiel, M. H.; Buus, S.; Claesson, M. H.

    2009-01-01

    Interferon-gamma secreting T lymphocytes against pox virus-derived synthetic 9-mer peptides were tested by enzyme-linked immunospot in peripheral blood of individuals vaccinated with vaccinia virus more than 30 years ago. The peptides were characterized biochemically as high-affinity human leucoc...

  11. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) catchment-average total annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1...

  12. Total nuclear phaseout. 30 years after Chernobyl. What still has to be done; Alle aussteigen. 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was noch zu tun ist

    NONE

    2016-03-15

    The brochure of the German Federal Environment Ministry on the necessity of total nuclear phaseout 30 years after Chernobyl discusses the following issues that still have to be done: Search for a final repository in deep rocks, building of a steel dome for Chernobyl and the roadmap for nuclear phaseout.

  13. The clinical database and the treatment guidelines of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG); its 30-years experience and future promise

    Moller, S.; Jensen, M.B.; Ejlertsen, B.;

    2008-01-01

    Introduction. Since 30 years, DBCG (Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group) has maintained a clinical database allowing the conduct of quality control studies, of randomised trials, examination of the epidemiology of breast cancer and of prognostic and predictive factors. Material and methods. The...

  14. Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

    Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

    2011-01-01

    This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

  15. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  16. Changes of erosive rainfall for El Nino and La Nina years in the northern Andean highlands of Peru

    Romero, C.; Baigorria, G.A.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2007-01-01

    Information related to rainfall erosivity in the Andes is scarce. This study was carried out to determine the characteristics of rainfall events at the La Encañada watershed, northern Peru, using daily rainfall data from the 1995 to 2000 period that included all the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Three weather stations were installed within the study area, at the top, middle and bottom of the watershed. We analysed the total amount, duration, intensity, kinetic energy and pro...

  17. Physics in daily life

    Hermans, Jo

    2012-01-01

    This book provides answers to everyday questions that any curious mind would ask, like : Why is water blue ? What makes ice so slippery ? How do we localize sound ? How do we keep our body temperature so nice and constant ? How do we survive the sauna at 90 C ? Why do large raindrops fall faster than small ones, and what exactly is their speed ? The answers are given in an accessible and playful way, and are illustrated with funny cartoons. In this book forty "Physics in Daily Life" columns, which appeared earlier in Europhysics News, are brought together in one inspiring volume. As well as being a source of enjoyment and satisfying insights for anyone with some physics background, it also serves as a very good teaching tool for science students. This booklet is a feast of erudition and humour.

  18. The Daily Selection

    Skjold, Else

    2015-01-01

    practice, and that this way of thinking could potentially bring about radical changes in the way dress objects are currently produced, disseminated and sold. All together, this thesis shows that in order to establish a more tight fit between the production and consumption of dress objects, there is very......In this PhD thesis, The Daily Selection, I will be addressing the overall question of how research on wardrobes can contribute to a more effective connection between the production and the consumption of dress objects. The thesis builds on exemplary studies of people in their wardrobes, with the...... one hand, symbolic discourse and, on the other, as an embodied practice that is 'physically embedded' in the material capacities of dress objects. In Part I, I frame this view by addressing the concept of dressing as a 'bodily situated practice', as defined by Entwistle (2000), combined with a...

  19. A simple simulation approach to generate complex rainfall fields conditioned by elevation: example of the eastern Mediterranean region

    Oriani, Fabio; Ohana-Levi, Noa; Straubhaar, Julien; Renard, Philippe; Karnieli, Arnon; Mariethoz, Grégoire; Morin, Efrat; Marra, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Stochastically generating realistic rainfall fields is useful to study the uncertainty related to catchment recharge and its propagation to distributed hydrological models. To this end, it is critical to use weather radar images as training data, being the single most informative source for rainfall spatial heterogeneity. Generating realistic simulations is particularly important in regions like the eastern Mediterranean, where the synoptic conditions can lead to rainfall fields presenting various morphology, anisotropy and non-stationarity. The Direct Sampling (DS) technique [Mariethoz2010] is proposed here as a stochastic generator of spatial daily rainfall fields relying on the simulation of radar imagery. The technique is based on resampling of a training data set (in this case, a stack of radar images) and the generation of similar patterns to the ones found in the data. The strong point of DS, which makes it an attractive simulation approach for rainfall, is its capability to preserve the high-order statistical features present in the training image (e.g., rainfall cell shape, spatial non-stationarity) with minimal parameterization. Moreover, factors influencing rainfall, like elevation, can be used as conditioning variables, without the need of a complex statistical dependence model. A DS setup for radar image simulation is presented and tested for the simulation of daily rainfall fields using a 10-year radar-image record from the central region of Israel. Using a synoptic weather classification to train the model, the algorithm can generate realistic spatial fields for different rainfall types, preserving the variability and the covariance structure of the reference reasonably well. Moreover, the simulation is conditioned using the digital elevation model to preserve the complex relation between rainfall intensity and altitude that is characteristic for this region. [Mariethoz2010] G. Mariethoz, P. Renard, and J. Straubhaar. The direct sampling method to

  20. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  1. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. PMID:26994797

  2. Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK

    Richard P Allan; Lavers, David A.; Champion, Adrian J.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric moisture characteristics associated with the heaviest 1% of daily rainfall events affecting regions of the British Isles are analysed over the period 1997–2008. A blended satellite/rain-gauge data set (GPCP-1DD) and regionally averaged daily rain-gauge observations (HadUKP) are combined with the ERA Interim reanalysis. These are compared with simulations from the HadGEM2-A climate model which applied observed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings. Median extreme...

  3. Design rainfall calculation for un-gauged basin%无资料地区设计暴雨计算研究

    栗雪峰; 刘俊萍

    2014-01-01

    There is no measured rainfall data in the reservoir area of Yunshou Reservoir in Shanxi Province. In order to calcu-late design flood, the rainfall calculation is needed. The design point rainfalls of 5 standard durations are calculated by referring the local hydrology manuals and hydrological atlas and then the design areal rainfall is obtained by point-surface conversion coef-ficient and the design areal rainfalls of standard durations are transformed into design areal rainfall of any duration by rainfall for-mula. The calculation of daily rainfall pattern and hourly rainfall pattern of design rainfall are carried out. The main rainfall dura-tions and main rainfalls are determined by rainfall formula, which provide the design rainfall and distribution of rainfall pattern of different frequency for the design flood calculation.%山西云首水库所在的小流域无实测暴雨资料,水库工程设计时需要进行设计暴雨计算以推求设计洪水。参考了当地水文手册和水文图集,计算出5种标准历时的设计点雨量,通过点面折算系数得到设计面雨量,再采用暴雨公式将标准历时的设计面雨量转化为任一历时的设计雨量。计算了设计暴雨的日雨型和时雨型,并借助暴雨公式确定了主雨历时和雨量,为该区域设计洪水计算提供了不同频率的设计暴雨和暴雨时程分配资料。

  4. Temporal complexity of daily precipitation records from different atmospheric environments: Chaotic and Lévy stable parameters

    Millán, H.; Rodríguez, J.; Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, B.; Biondi, R.; Llerena, G.

    2011-09-01

    Rainfall events are very erratic at short and large temporal and spatial scales. The main objectives of the present study were (i) to describe different time series of daily precipitation records using both chaos theory and stable distribution methods and (ii) to search for potential relationships between chaotic and Lévy-stable parameters. We studied eight time series of daily rainfall from different latitudes around the world. Each rainfall signal spanned nine years (1997-2005). We used methods derived from chaos theory (embedding delays, spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, determinism tests and others) and parameters computed after fitting a stable distribution model to each differenced time series of rainfall data. All the rainfall signals showed chaotic structures with two positive Lyapunov exponents. The stability index was α < 2 which accounts for the scale-free behavior of rainfall dynamics. There were found latent statistical relationships between chaotic and Lévy stable parameters. That represents a potential connection between chaotic behavior, sub-Gaussian statistics and rainfall dynamics. Future research should deal with the connection between chaotic invariants, stable parameters and rainfall phenomenology.

  5. Long-Term Historical Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using High-Resolution Satellite-based Precipitation Products

    Ashouri, H.; Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

    2014-12-01

    This study evaluates the performance of a newly developed long-term high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products, named Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network - Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), in hydrological modeling. PERSIANN-CDR estimations are biased corrected using GPCP monthly climatology data. PERSIANN-CDR provides daily rainfall estimates at 0.25° x 0.25° grid boxes for 1983-2014 (delayed present). This newly released product makes it feasible to model the streamflow over the past 30 years. Three test basins from the Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2 (DMIP 2) are chosen. Comparing with other satellite products, the Version 7 TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product is used. Stage IV radar data is used as a reference data for evaluating the PERSIANN-CDR and TMPA precipitation data. All products are scaled to 0.25° and daily spatiotemporal resolution. The study is performed in two phases. In the first phase, the 2003-2011 period where all the products are available is chosen. Precipitation evaluation results, presented on Taylor Diagrams, show that TMPA and PERSIANN-CDR have close performances. The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) is then forced with the PERSIANN-CDR and the TMPA precipitation products, as well as the stage IV radar data. USGS Streamflow observations at the outlet of the basins are used as the reference streamflow data. The results show that in general, in all the three DMIP 2 basins the simulated hydrographs forced with PERSIANN-CDR and TMPA show good agreement, as the statistical measures such as root mean square error, bias, and correlation coefficient are close. In addition, with respect to the streamflow peaks, PERSIANN-CDR shows better performance than Stage IV radar data in capturing the extreme streamflow magnitudes

  6. Stochastic daily solar irradiance for biological modeling applications

    Stochastic daily weather generators commonly used for biological modeling applications do not adequately reproduce empirical distributions of global solar irradiance. The daily clearness index, the ratio of daily global-to-extraterrestrial irradiance, captures the stochastic component of solar irradiance due to atmospheric conditions. Three alternative models of daily solar irradiance (truncated Gaussian distributions, a proposed modification based on logit-transformed relative clearness, and a family of empirically derived distributions) conditioned on the occurrence of rain are described and evaluated using data from 10 U.S. locations. These models are presented in terms of monthly cumulative distributions and density functions of clearness. Strong non-normality of distributions of clearness, and improved fits obtained with a logit transformation, are demonstrated. The proposed model, based on a logit transformation of relative clearness, was superior to the other two in terms of Akaike's information criterion, and generally superior to the standard model based on truncated Gaussian distributions in terms of goodness of fit between observed and generated irradiances. Based on this evidence, the proposed model is recommended for stochastic generation of daily irradiance conditioned on daily rainfall occurrence and temperature extremes. (author)

  7. A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

  8. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  9. A Scenario of Rainfall Erosivity Index Research

    D .V. Pandit1; R. K. Isaac2

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity index is an important index to evaluate the soil loss due to rainfall. Rainstorm plays a paramount role in surface sealing, runoff and erosion process. Research on rainfall erosivity index is important in understanding the mechanism of soil erosion processes. This paper gives a scenario on the important research work done by the scientists to evaluate the erosivity index by using various methods and approaches. The aim of this paper was also to highl...

  10. Edificio Daily Mirror

    Williams, Owen

    1963-07-01

    Full Text Available The building has 18 levels. The Press occupies the 4 basement floors. The ground floor is taken up with the entrance hall, and an indoor carriage way. A snack bar and the telephone operators are situated on the second floor. The production department and the medical services are located on the third storey, whilst the fourth is occupied by the offices and library. The fifth floor is the beginning of the higher section of the building. This floor and up to including the 11th floor are devoted to office space, except for the 10th storey, which contains the office apartments of the directors and the Council Chamber. Equipment related to various services of the building is housed on the 12th storey. Finally, this tall building constitutes a fine landmark in the London skyline. The Daily Mirror building is outstanding for the appropriate nature, the completeness and the quality of its installations, which thus provide the most widely read paper in the world with outstandingly efficient offices.Este edificio consta de 18 plantas. El cuerpo de Prensa se aloja en los cuatro sótanos; los vestíbulos de entrada y una calzada interior para vehículos se hallan en la planta baja; la primera alberga un snack-bar y centralita telefónica; la segunda, el departamento de producción y centro de asistencia médica, y la tercera, las oficinas y biblioteca principales. La cuarta planta señala el comienzo del bloque alto; esta planta, junto con las quinta, sexta, séptima, octava y décima, están dedicadas a oficinas. La novena contiene las oficinas-apartamentos de los directores y salas de Consejo, y la undécima, la maquinaria para las diversas instalaciones del edificio. La elevada torre constituye un grandioso hito de referencia en esta zona de Londres. El «Daily Mirror» se distingue por el acierto, número y perfección de sus instalaciones, que proporcionan, al periódico de mayor actualidad mundial, las más adecuadas y amplias oficinas modernas.

  11. Estimation of daily solar radiation from routinely observed meteorological data in Chongqing, China

    Solar radiation is a very important and major variable in crop simulation models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations worldwide. Models were developed to estimate daily solar radiation in Chongqing, one of the most important agricultural areas in China. Several routinely observed meteorological variables including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily mean dew point temperature, fog and rainfall had been obtained, investigated and analyzed from 1986 to 2000 for Chongqing. The monthly mean daily solar radiation at this location ranged from a maximum of 15.082 MJ m-2 day-1 in August and a minimum of 3.042 MJ m-2 day-1 in December. A newly developed model that included all selected variables proved the best method with a RMSE value of 2.522 MJ m-2 day-1. The best performed models for different seasons were further evaluated according to divide-and-conquer principle. The model using all selected variables provided the best estimates of daily solar radiation in winter and autumn with RMSE values of 1.491 and 2.037 MJ m-2 day-1, respectively. The method involving temperatures and rainfall information could be used to estimate daily solar radiation in summer with a RMSE value of 3.163 MJ m-2 day-1. The model using temperature, rainfall and dew point data performed better than other models in spring with a RMSE value of 2.910 MJ m-2 day-1.

  12. Application of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulating and downscaling of rainfall and temperature

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Shamsudin, Supiah; Harun, Sobri

    2014-04-01

    Climate change is believed to have significant impacts on the water basin and region, such as in a runoff and hydrological system. However, impact studies on the water basin and region are difficult, since general circulation models (GCMs), which are widely used to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide reliable hours of daily series rainfall and temperature for hydrological modeling. There is a technique named as "downscaling techniques", which can derive reliable hour of daily series rainfall and temperature due to climate scenarios from the GCMs output. In this study, statistical downscaling models are used to generate the possible future values of local meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature in the selected stations in Peninsular of Malaysia. The models are: (1) statistical downscaling model (SDSM) that utilized the regression models and stochastic weather generators and (2) Long Ashton research station weather generator (LARS-WG) that only utilized the stochastic weather generators. The LARS-WG and SDSM models obviously are feasible methods to be used as tools in quantifying effects of climate change condition in a local scale. SDSM yields a better performance compared to LARS-WG, except SDSM is slightly underestimated for the wet and dry spell lengths. Although both models do not provide identical results, the time series generated by both methods indicate a general increasing trend in the mean daily temperature values. Meanwhile, the trend of the daily rainfall is not similar to each other, with SDSM giving a relatively higher change of annual rainfall compared to LARS-WG.

  13. Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

    N. Zambatis

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

  14. Evidence of Fire-Induced Rainfall Modification in sub-Saharan Africa

    Saha, M.; Scanlon, T. M.; D'Odorico, P.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have highlighted the importance of the land surface in promoting or inhibiting convective development and precipitation. At the same time, fire represents a dramatic, instantaneous shift in energy and mass fluxes at the surface. We examine the role that fires play in modifying subsequent precipitation on seasonal timescales across sub-Saharan Africa. Using MODIS burned area product and TRMM daily precipitation we find that fire suppresses total wet season accumulated rainfall in arid and semiarid regions. In the regions receiving less than 500 mm of mean annual precipitation (MAP) this suppression amounts to deficits of up to 30% of MAP. This observed pattern is consistent between drylands in both hemispheres. We consider the possible mechanisms of fire-induced rainfall suppression, including changes in albedo and reduced evapotranspiration. We propose a novel feedback between rainfall and fire that is manifested by an oscillation between low rainfall and high rainfall years. Observational evidence supports this hypothesis. Finally, using MODIS land cover data we find that the regions where we observe fire-induced rainfall suppression are comprised of a higher than expected proportion of croplands and cropland mosaic. We highlight the possibility of a novel anthropogenic influence on hydrologic cycling in regions where water resources are scarce.

  15. Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall-runoff model? Part 2 Towards a simple and efficient potential evapotranspiration model for rainfall-runoff modelling

    L. Oudin; Hervieu, F.; Michel, C.; Perrin, C.; Andréassian, V.; Anctil, F.; C. Loumagne

    2005-01-01

    This research sought to identify the most relevant approach to calculate potential evapotranspiration (PE) for use in a daily rainfall-runoff model, while answering the following question: How can we use available atmospheric variables to represent the evaporative demand at the basin scale? The value of 27 PE models was assessed in terms of streamflow simulation efficiency over a large sample of 308 catchments located in France, Australia and the United States.While trying to identify which a...

  16. Assessing the sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and the erosivity R factor. Application to the Upper Llobregat Basin, NE Spain

    J. Latron

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall erosivity were investigated when the USLE R factor was operationally calculated for a mountainous river basin (504 km2 in the Southeastern Pyrenees. Rainfall kinetic energy was first obtained at the scale of the rainfall event by means of sub-hourly precipitation tipping-bucket rain gauge records and updates of the Kinnell (1981 equation. Annual erosivity values for the nearby pluviometric stations were then derived from the linear regressions between daily rainfall erosivity and daily precipitation, obtained for two different seasons. Finally, maps for rainfall erosivity estimates were obtained from the station values with Thiessen polygons. The sources of uncertainty analysed were i the tipping-bucket instrumental errors, ii the efficiency of the Kinnell (1981 equation, iii the efficiency of the regressions between daily precipitation and kinetic energy, iv the temporal variability of annual rainfall erosivity values, and the spatial variability of v annual rainfall erosivity values and vi long-term R factor values. The results showed that the uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy from rainfall intensity at the event and station scales is highly relevant and must be taken into account for experimental or modelling purposes; for longer temporal scales, the relevance of this source of uncertainty remains high if there is a low variability of the types of rain. Temporal variability of precipitation at wider spatial scales is the main source of uncertainty when rainfall erosivity is to be calculated on an annual basis, whereas the uncertainty associated with the long-term R factor is rather low and less important than the uncertainty associated with the other RUSLE factors when operationally used for long-term soil erosion modelling.

  17. Assessing the Change in Rainfall Characteristics and Trends for the Southern African ITCZ Region

    Baumberg, Verena; Weber, Torsten; Helmschrot, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    Southern Africa is strongly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) thus determining the climate in this region with distinct seasonal and inter-annual rainfall dynamics. The amount and variability of rainfall affect the various ecosystems by controlling the hydrological system, regulating water availability and determining agricultural practices. Changes in rainfall characteristics potentially caused by climate change are of uppermost relevance for both ecosystem functioning and human well-being in this region and, thus, need to be investigated. To analyse the rainfall variability governed by the ITCZ in southern Africa, observational daily rainfall datasets with a high spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° (about 28 km x 28 km) from satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used. These datasets extend from 1998 to 2008 and 1948 to 2010, respectively, and allow for the assessment of rainfall characteristics over different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, a comparison of TRMM and GLDAS and, where available, with observed data will be made to determine the differences of both datasets. In order to quantify the intra- and inner-annual variability of rainfall, the amount of total rainfall, duration of rainy seasons and number of dry spells along with further indices are calculated from the observational datasets. Over the southern African ITCZ region, the rainfall characteristics change moving from wetter north to the drier south, but also from west to east, i.e. the coast to the interior. To address expected spatial and temporal variabilities, the assessment of changes in the rainfall parameters will be carried out for different transects in zonal and meridional directions over the region affected by the ITCZ. Revealing trends over more than 60 years, the results will help to identify and understand potential impacts of climate change on

  18. A fuzzy-autoregressive model of daily river flows

    Greco, Roberto

    2012-06-01

    A model for the identification of daily river flows has been developed, consisting of the combination of an autoregressive model with a fuzzy inference system. The AR model is devoted to the identification of base flow, supposed to be described by linear laws. The fuzzy model identifies the surface runoff, by applying a small set of linguistic statements, deriving from the knowledge of the physical features of the nonlinear rainfall-runoff transformation, to the inflow entering the river basin. The model has been applied to the identification of the daily flow series of river Volturno at Cancello-Arnone (Southern Italy), with a drainage basin of around 5560 km2, observed between 1970 and 1974. The inflow was estimated on the basis of daily precipitations registered during the same years at six rain gauges located throughout the basin. The first two years were used for model training, the remaining three for the validation. The obtained results show that the proposed model provides good predictions of either low river flows or high floods, although the analysis of residuals, which do not turn out to be a white noise, indicates that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is not completely identified by the model.

  19. Soil as a natural rain gauge: Estimating global rainfall from satellite soil moisture data

    Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Moramarco, Tommaso; Hahn, Sebastian; Hasenauer, Stefan; Kidd, Richard; Dorigo, Wouter; Wagner, Wolfgang; Levizzani, Vincenzo

    2014-05-01

    Measuring precipitation intensity is not straightforward; and over many areas, ground observations are lacking and satellite observations are used to fill this gap. The most common way of retrieving rainfall is by addressing the problem "top-down" by inverting the atmospheric signals reflected or radiated by atmospheric hydrometeors. However, most applications are interested in how much water reaches the ground, a problem that is notoriously difficult to solve from a top-down perspective. In this study, a novel "bottom-up" approach is proposed that, by doing "hydrology backward," uses variations in soil moisture (SM) sensed by microwave satellite sensors to infer preceding rainfall amounts. In other words, the soil is used as a natural rain gauge. Three different satellite SM data sets from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), and the Microwave Imaging Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis are used to obtain three new daily global rainfall products. The "First Guess Daily" product of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) is employed as main benchmark in the validation period 2010-2011 for determining the continuous and categorical performance of the SM-derived rainfall products by considering the 5 day accumulated values. The real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis product, i.e., the TRMM-3B42RT, is adopted as a state-of-the-art satellite rainfall product. The SM-derived rainfall products show good Pearson correlation values (R) with the GPCC data set, mainly in areas where SM retrievals are found to be accurate. The global median R values (in the latitude band ±50°) are equal to 0.54, 0.28, and 0.31 for ASCAT-, AMSR-E-, and SMOS-derived products, respectively. For comparison, the median R for the TRMM-3B42RT product is equal to 0.53. Interestingly, the SM-derived products are found to outperform TRMM-3B42RT in terms of average global

  20. Validation of satellite rainfall products over Greece

    Feidas, H.

    2010-01-01

    Six widely available satellite precipitation products were extensively validated and intercompared on monthly-to-seasonal timescales and various spatial scales, for the period 1998-2006, using a dense station network over Greece. Satellite products were divided into three groups according to their spatial resolution. The first group had high spatial (0.5°) resolution and consists only of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products: the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) precipitation product (3A12) and the TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis products (3B42 and 3B43). The second group comprised products with medium spatial (1°) resolution. These products included the TRMM 3B42 and 3B43 estimates (remapped to 1° resolution) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project one-degree daily (GPCP-1DD) analysis. The third group consisted of low spatial (2.5°) resolution products and included the 3B43 product (remapped to 2.5° resolution), the GPCP Satellite and Gauge (GPCP-SG) product, and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC) Merged Analysis (CMAP). Rain gauge data were first gridded and then compared with monthly and seasonal precipitation totals as well as with long-term averages of the six satellite products at different spatial resolutions (2.5°, 1°, and 0.5°). The results demonstrated the excellent performance of the 3B43 product over Greece in all three spatial scales. 3B42 from the first and second group and CMAP from the third exhibited a reasonable skill.