WorldWideScience

Sample records for 21st-century climate change

  1. Projections of Climate Change over China for the 21st Century

    LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; XU Ying; GAO Xuejie; DING Yihui

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40 climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the models with the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21st century. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21st century.

  2. Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

    Nogués Bravo, David; Araújo, Miguel B; Lasanta, Teodoro;

    2008-01-01

    Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, glaciers, run-off processes, and water availability). Here, we provide an assessment of temperature, precipitation, and spring precip...

  3. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fai...

  4. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  5. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

    Engler, R.; Randin, C. F.; Thuiller, W.;

    2011-01-01

    microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples......Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced...... that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation....

  6. 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review

    Gobiet, Andreas, E-mail: andreas.gobiet@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Kotlarski, Sven, E-mail: sven.kotlarski@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Beniston, Martin, E-mail: martin.beniston@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland); Heinrich, Georg, E-mail: g.heinrich@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Rajczak, Jan, E-mail: jan.rajczak@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stoffel, Markus, E-mail: markus.stoffel@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2014-09-15

    Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. - Highlights: • Warming is expected to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Alpine region. • Seasonal shifts in precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity are expected. • Precipitation and temperature extremes are expected to intensify. • Snow cover

  7. 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review

    Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. - Highlights: • Warming is expected to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Alpine region. • Seasonal shifts in precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity are expected. • Precipitation and temperature extremes are expected to intensify. • Snow cover

  8. Regional modelling of the 21st century climate changes in the Irish Sea

    Olbert, Agnieszka I.; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

    2012-06-01

    An assessment of the complex evolution of climate change signals in the Irish Sea over the 21st century is presented in this paper. Potential impacts of climate change on the local hydrography are explored and interrelationships between fundamental oceanographic shelf sea phenomena investigated. A regional ECOMSED ocean model is used to downscale a 120-year period (1980-2099) of the SRES A1B scenario experiment from a global ocean model. A detailed regional analysis shows that local climate changes may be significantly different from the expected global changes. This research suggests that in the future the Irish Sea will be warmer with sea surface temperature increase of around 1.9 °C. Maxima and minima annual temperatures will occur around 2 weeks later each year relative to the present climate. Geographically, shallow waters along the coastline and in the eastern Irish Sea will exhibit strongest warming due to increased heat uptake during summer and autumn and reduced heat loss in spring and winter. Warming in the deep channel in the western Irish Sea will be generally weaker with seasonal variability subdued due to a large heat storage capacity. The warming will be largely stored in the surface layer of the water column leading to strengthening of stratification and a considerable decrease in the thickness of the mixed layer. The western Irish Sea gyre will become stronger and result in substantial reinforcement (>30%) of southward currents along the east coast of Ireland. Net northward flow in future predicted climate conditions will be maintained at the current annual rate. Steric sea level is projected to rise by 0.31 m during the 21st century, leading to an overall projected sea level rise of approximately of 0.47 m. Future changes to oceanographic parameters, flushing times and hydrodynamics of the Irish Sea are likely to alter the habitat and distribution of marine species; the finding of this research are therefore of great interest to ecologists and

  9. Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH4) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH4 fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH4 yr−1 (1 Tg = 1012 g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH4 emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH4 consumption. Further, the annual net CH4 emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH4 emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH4 emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH4 emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH4 emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH4 fluxes in this region.

  10. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-12-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

  11. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia. (letter)

  12. Projected Changes in Kppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

    SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie; WU Jia

    2012-01-01

    Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.

  13. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  14. Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

    Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-05-01

    Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. PMID:27322480

  15. The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

    Y. Xu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  16. Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

    JIANG Ying; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; SHI Ying; XU Yinlong; ZHU Jinhong

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.

  17. Changes in Drought Characteristics of the 21st Century CMIP5 Climate Projection

    Touma, Danielle; Nayak, Munir; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-04-01

    Drought has been a major economic and social driver in the past and will continue to be in the future. Using four drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Supply-Demand Drought Index (SDDI), and multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs) output from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we study the effects of climate change on hydrological and meteorological drought in the 21st century. SPI and SRI are based on monthly precipitation and runoff data, respectively, whereas SPEI and SDDI are based on monthly temperature and precipitation data. Our study covers 1960-2005 in the historical period and 2010-2100 in the future period under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We analyze changes in drought characteristics over the globe by comparing future variations in duration, intensity and frequency with those in the historic period using regions defined by Giorgi and Bi (GRL, 2005). Our results show that drought indices that take into account the direct effect of temperature show stronger changes in the future period. We find that the strongest changes occur over the tropical and subtropical regions, which are generally robust across all the indices. However, projected changes are less certain over the higher latitudes across the GCMs, as well as across the indices. Overall, these results have important implications for regions that are already water-stressed. Moreover, uncertainty across the drought indices informs the effort to further develop robust methodologies for drought projections.

  18. Re-orienting crop improvement for the changing climatic conditions of the 21st century

    Mba Chikelu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A 70% increase in food production is required over the next four decades to feed an ever-increasing population. The inherent difficulties in achieving this unprecedented increase are exacerbated by the yield-depressing consequences of climate change and variations and by the pressures on food supply by other competing demographic and socioeconomic demands. With the dwindling or stagnant agricultural land and water resources, the sought-after increases will therefore be attained mainly through the enhancement of crop productivity under eco-efficient crop production systems. ‘Smart’ crop varieties that yield more with fewer inputs will be pivotal to success. Plant breeding must be re-oriented in order to generate these ‘smart’ crop varieties. This paper highlights some of the scientific and technological tools that ought to be the staple of all breeding programs. We also make the case that plant breeding must be enabled by adequate policies, including those that spur innovation and investments. To arrest and reverse the worrisome trend of declining capacities for crop improvement, a new generation of plant breeders must also be trained. Equally important, winning partnerships, including public-private sector synergies, are needed for 21st century plant breeding to bear fruits. We also urge the adoption of the continuum approach to the management of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture as means to improved cohesion of the components of its value chain. Compellingly also, the National Agricultural Research and Extension System of developing countries require comprehensive overhauling and strengthening as crop improvement and other interventions require a sustained platform to be effective. The development of a suite of actionable policy interventions to be packaged for assisting countries in developing result-oriented breeding programs is also called for.

  19. Modeling Sphagnum moisture stress in response to 21st century climate change using dynamic peat properties

    Moore, P.; Kettridge, N.; Morris, P. J.; Waddington, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sphagnum is associated with wet habitats such as northern peatlands, which may be vulnerable to enhanced 21st century drought due to climate change. We adapted a physically based, 1.5-dimensional (vertical with horizontal interaction in the saturated zone) water-balance model to investigate the role of topographic position and depth-dependence of hydrophysical properties on Sphagnum moisture stress response to current and projected climate conditions in a southern boreal peatland. We parameterized the peat hydrophysical properties using field and lab-based measurements from three adjacent peatlands with different average water table (WT) depths, microtopgraphic variability, and microtopographic patterning; where measurement locations were chosen to take advantage of a long-term WT manipulation that resulted from berm construction in the 1950s. WT level was shown to have a strong control on pore water pressure (ψ), and thus on Sphagnum moisture stress. As a result of the close correspondence between laboratory measured surface peat hydrophysical properties for hummocks and lawns used to parameterize our model, microtopographic position was shown to have a greater impact on Sphagnum moisture stress when using a static surface level. By incorporating a dynamic surface level based on ψ, bulk density, and differences in compressibility between microtopographical elements, Sphagnum moisture stress was shown to be reduced in lawns. The reduction in moisture stress was less than what would be expected based solely on surface adjustment due to the concomitant change in pore-size distribution, which we model based on changes in bulk density. Overall, model behavior suggests that, while ψ maintains equilibrium-profile values relative to the WT level for relatively shallow values, surface ψ becomes non-linearly related to WT level below a value of approximately -0.4 m, thus greatly increasing the likelihood of desiccation under future climate scenarios where growing season

  20. Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios

    XU Ying; ZHAO Zongci; LUO Yong; GAO Xuejie

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of East Asia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the model projections.

  1. Climate: Into the 21st Century

    Burroughs, William

    2003-08-01

    Toward the end of the twentieth century, it became evident to professionals working within the meterological arena that the world's climate system was showing signs of change that could not be adequately explained in terms of natural variation. Since that time there has been an increasing recognition that the climate system is changing as a result of human industries and lifestyles, and that the outcomes may prove catastrophic to the world's escalating population. Compiled by an international team formed under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Climate: Into the 21st Century features an unrivalled collection of essays by the world's leading meteorological experts. These fully integrated contributions provide a perspective of the global climate system across the twentieth century, and describe some of the most arresting and extreme climatic events and their effects that have occurred during that time. In addition, the book traces the development of our capabilities to observe and monitor the climate system, and outlines our understanding of the predictability of climate on time-scales of months and longer. It concludes with a summary of the prospects for applying the twentieth century climate experience in order to benefit society in the twenty-first century. Lavishly illustrated in color, Climate is an accessible acccount of the challenges that climate poses at the start of the twenty-first century. Filled with fascinating facts and diagrams, it is written for a wide audience and will captivate the general reader interested in climate issues, and will be a valuable teaching resource. William Burroughs is a successful science author of books on climate, including Weather (Time Life, 2000), and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach (2001), Does the Weather Really Matter? (1997) and The Climate Revealed (1999), all published by Cambridge University Press.

  2. Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent; Graversen, Rune Grand; Karlsson, Johannes; Svensson, Gunilla; Tjernström, Michael; Willén, Ulrika; Wyser, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic climate change is analyzed in anensemble of future projection simulations performed withthe global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earthsimulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relativelywell but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea icethickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-firstcentury, the results show a continuation and strengtheningof the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades,which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate,especi...

  3. Responses of European forest ecosystems to 21st century climate: assessing changes in interannual variability and fire intensity

    Dury M

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes are currently observed and, according to projections, will be strengthened over the 21st century throughout the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the biodiversity and the functioning of natural ecosystems. The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by the ARPEGE/Climate model under forcing from the A2 IPCC emission scenario is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on forest productivity and distribution as well as fire intensity over Europe. The potential CO2 fertilizing effect is studied throughout transient runs of the vegetation model over the 1961-2100 period assuming constant and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Without fertilisation effect, the net primary productivity (NPP might increase in high latitudes and altitudes (by up to 40 % or even 60-100 % while it might decrease in temperate (by up to 50 % and in warmer regions, e.g., Mediterranean area (by up to 80 %. This strong decrease in NPP is associated with recurrent drought events occurring mostly in summer time. Under rising CO2 concentration, NPP increases all over Europe by as much as 25-75%, but it is not clear whether or not soils might sustain such an increase. The model indicates also that interannual NPP variability might strongly increase in the areas which will undergo recurrent water stress in the future. During the years exhibiting summer drought, the NPP might decrease to values much lower than present-day average NPP even when CO2 fertilization is included. Moreover, years with such events will happen much more frequently than today. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency and intensity, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution. For

  4. Consequences of 21st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

    Clark, PU; Shakun, JD; Marcott, SA; Mix, AC; Eby, M.; Kulp, S.; Levermann, A.; Milne, GA; Pfister, PL; Santer, BD; Schrag, Dp; Solomon, S.; Stocker, TF; Strauss, BH; Weaver, AJ

    2016-01-01

    Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years and climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon ...

  5. How may the regional climate change redraw the European terrestrial wild mammals' living territory in the 21st century?

    Nagy, Julia; Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Hufnagel, Levente

    2013-04-01

    Climate is one of the abiotic factors, which controls primarily the range areas of wildlife. Animals tend to occupy geographical regions with climatic conditions, which are optimal to their specific needs. Due to the projected global warming and climate change the living territory of wild animals' may be reshaped in the future, some of the species may even suffer extinction. In this research we aim to estimate how climate change alters the distributions of European terrestrial mammal species and modifies biodiversity in the 21st century. For this purpose, first, hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to species for forming major groups. Climatic information is provided by using the E-OBS gridded database for 1961-1990. Then, carefully selecting typical species from the major groups it is possible to predict changes in area by displaying their climate indicator profile maps. For the range datasets the Atlas of European Mammals are analyzed, which was published in 1999 and is now widely used as a reference work. It contains data for pre-1970 and post-1970 presence of mammal species in Europe. Then, in order to assess future changes, available datasets of regional climate model results from the European project ENSEMBLES for 1951-2100 using the moderate SRES A1B emission scenario are considered with 25 km horizontal resolution. Simultaneous analysis of climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of European terrestrial mammal species to regional climate change. The results suggest that rapid change and significant decline in habitats and fauna redraw the wild animals' living territory and make them migrate northward.

  6. Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

    MacKenzie, Brian; Gislason, Henrik; Möllmann, C.;

    2007-01-01

    The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly...... reviewed. We then use recent regional - scale climate - ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity of the...... Baltic because of its low salinity. Fishing fleets which presently target marine species (e.g. cod, herring, sprat, plaice, sole) in the Baltic will likely have to relocate to more marine areas or switch to other species which tolerate decreasing salinities. Fishery management thresholds that trigger...

  7. Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

    In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Soerensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive

  8. Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

    Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Floejgaard, Camilla [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark); Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Svenning, Jens-Christian, E-mail: fs@dmu.d [Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Soerensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and

  9. Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

    Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2009-11-01

    In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Sørensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive

  10. Coal and Climate Change. Will Coal Depart or Dominate Global Power Production During the 21st Century?

    Van der Zwaan, B. [Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2004-11-11

    At present, coal power production is the most polluting energy resource in terms of sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and particulate matter emissions, and, as a result, involves the largest external environmental costs among the currently available electricity generation alternatives. Coal is also the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and its present large-scale combustion practices constitute among the prime impediments to implementing effective climate change control regimes. This article analyses the question whether coal must depart or may still dominate power production during the 21st century, in view of the challenges implied by regional pollution reduction and global warming mitigation. Four main reasons are described why, paradoxically, coal is likely to continue to have a high and perhaps even increasing share in global electricity generation this century: (I) its large resource base; (II) the improving efficiency and competitiveness of conventional and innovative coal technologies; (III) the employability of new coal technologies in conjunction with carbon capture and storage systems; (IV) the improving economics of these advanced clean coal technologies.

  11. Energy and environment in the 21st century : minimizing climate change.

    CERN. Geneva

    2003-01-01

    Energy demand and economic output are coupled. Both are expected to vastly increase in this century, driven primarily by the economic and population growth of the developing world. If the present reliance on carbon-based fuels as primary energy sources continues, average global temperatures are projected to rise between 3° C and 6° C. Limiting climate change will require reduction in greenhouse gas emissions far beyond the Kyoto commitments. Time scales and options, including nuclear, will be reviewed.

  12. FINADAPT scenarios for the 21st century. Alternative futures for considering adaptation to climate change in Finland. FINADAPT Working Paper 2

    Carter, Timothy R.; JylhÀ, Kirsti; Perrels, Adriaan; Fronzek,Stefan; KankaanpÀÀ, Susanna

    2005-01-01

    A set of three scenarios of environmental and socio-economic conditions in Finland during the 21st century is presented. The scenarios were developed to provide a contextual framework for research into adaptation to climate change in the FINADAPT project. They have similarities to the IPCC SRES global scenarios, but they also differ from SRES because they are national in scope and they account for climate policy. The scenarios are labelled: Global Markets, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, ...

  13. Predicted 21st century changes in seasonal extreme precipitation events in the parallel climate model

    Wehner, Michael F.

    2004-06-07

    Twenty-year return value of annual and seasonal maxima of daily precipitation are calculated from a set of transiently forced coupled general circulation model simulations. The magnitude and pattern of return values are found to be highly dependent on the seasonal cycle. A similar dependence is found for projected future changes in return values. The correlation between the spatial pattern of return value changes and mean precipitation changes is found to be low. Hence, the changes in mean precipitation do not provide significant information about changes in precipitation extreme values.

  14. The Response of Alpine Glaciers in Western Canada to Early 21st Century Climate Change

    Menounos, B.; Beedle, M. J.; Lueders, S.

    2014-12-01

    Since 1998, the rate of global warming has slowed but the degree to which this slowdown has affected alpine glaciers in North America remains uncertain. Here we describe glacier fluctuations in the continental mountain ranges of British Columbia, Alberta, Yukon and the Northwest Territories for the period 1985-2013. Our manual digitization of over 3,000 glaciers mapped from 12 Landsat scenes builds upon a glacier inventory for the period 1985-2005 that utilized aerial photography and satellite imagery (Landsat) for the mountain ranges of British Columbia and Alberta. Landsat imagery allowed us to extend the spatial distribution of this inventory to include most alpine glaciers that straddle the Yukon and Northwest Territory border (Nahanni region) for the years 1985 and 2004. We also digitized glaciers from pan-sharpened Landsat 8 imagery for the year 2013. Glacier recession rates differ among regions between the early [1985-2005] and recent [2005-2013] periods. Recession rates during the recent period, for example, slowed by 43% and 15% for the Nahanni and Columbia Basin regions respectively. When compared to the early period, recent recession rates accelerated by 17% and 121% for glaciers in the Southern and Northern Rocky Mountains. Some of this regional variability is attributed to climate anomalies in the study area based on our analysis of instrumental (CRU 3.21) and reanalysis (ERA Interim) data, but the doubling of the recessional rate for the Northern Rocky Mountains is anomalous. Non-climatic factors that could explain this anomalous rapid retreat of Northern Rocky Mountain glaciers includes low minimum elevation of these glaciers, debris cover and shadowed terrain in the Landsat imagery.

  15. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period, 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  16. Responses of global terrestrial evapotranspiration to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Yang, Qichun; Yang, Jia; Lu, Chaoqun; Tao, Bo; Ren, Wei; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000-2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010-2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545-552) mm yr-1 during 2000-2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090s would increase by 30.7 mm yr-1 (5.6%) and 13.2 mm yr-1 (2.4%) under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. About 60% of global land area would experience increasing ET at rates of over 9.5 mm decade-1 over the study period under the A2 scenario. The Arctic region would have the largest ET increase (16% compared with the 2000s level) due to larger increase in temperature than other regions. Decreased ET would mainly take place in regions like central and western Asia, northern Africa, Australia, eastern South America, and Greenland due to declines in soil moisture and changing rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that warming temperature and increasing precipitation would result in large increase in ET by the end of the 21st century, while increasing atmospheric CO2 would be responsible for decrease in ET, given the reduction of stomatal conductance under elevated CO2.

  17. Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

    Fabre, J.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Grouillet, B.

    2015-09-01

    This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was developed and applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socio-economic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st century to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every five years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the

  18. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  19. Long-Term Changes in Stratospheric Age Spectra in the 21st Century in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM)

    Li, Feng; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Strahan, Susan E.; Ma, Jun; Nielsen, J. Eric; Liang, Qing

    2012-01-01

    In this study we investigate the long-term variations in the stratospheric age spectra using simulations of the 21st century with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our purposes are to characterize the long-term changes in the age spectra and identify processes that cause the decrease of the mean age in a warming climate. Changes in the age spectra in the 21st century simulations are characterized by decreases in the modal age, the mean age, the spectral width, and the tail decay timescale. Our analyses show that the decrease in the mean age is caused by two processes: the acceleration of the residual circulation that increases the young air masses in the stratosphere, and the weakening of the recirculation that leads to the decrease of tail of the age spectra and the decrease of the old air masses. The weakening of the stratospheric recirculation is also strongly correlated with the increase of the residual circulation. One important result of this study is that the decrease of the tail of the age spectra makes an important contribution to the decrease of the main age. Long-term changes in the stratospheric isentropic mixing are investigated. Mixing increases in the subtropical lower stratosphere, but its impact on the age spectra is outweighed by the increase of the residual circulation. The impacts of the long-term changes in the age spectra on long-lived chemical traces are also investigated. 37 2

  20. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 °C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  1. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Svenning, Jens-Christian [Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo, E-mail: camilla.flojgaard@biology.au.d [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  2. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  3. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  4. Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

  5. Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century

    Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of −0.2 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1, as a result of a CH4 source (53 Tg CH4 yr−1) and a CO2 sink (−0.4 Pg C yr−1). In response to warming climate, both CH4 emissions and CO2 uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH4 source and CO2 sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH4 and CO2 from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO2-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH4-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic. (letter)

  6. Carbon, Nitrogen, and Water Response to Land Use and Management Decisions under a Changing Climate in Pennsylvania during the 21st Century

    Felzer, B. S.; Kicklighter, D. W.

    2011-12-01

    The effects of future climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 levels in Pennsylvania must be considered in the context of land use and management decisions. While Pennsylvania was originally completely forested at the outset of the colonial period, 19th century land clearing and subsequent regrowth has changed the forest cover of Pennsylvania from 32% to 64% of the land area. Recent trends from 1992-2005 show that developed land has increased by 131% at the expense of agricultural land and forests. Future climate projections indicate that Pennsylvania will get significantly warmer and wetter due to continued increases in greenhouse gases. Using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model version Hydro (TEM-Hydro), this study explores the role of land use and management in carbon and water dynamics during the 20th century and for four land use scenarios in the 21st century including: 1) a potential vegetation land cover of 100% forest; 2) a current land cover comprising mature forests, crops, pasture, and developed area; 3) a current land cover with younger forests; and 4) a future land cover scenario based on expanding development at the rate of 639,284 acres per decade adjacent to existing developed lands. Common assumptions are made about land use management, but we also explore the effect of crop tilling. TEM-Hydro runs are forced by 20th century climate from the PRISM model and 21st century climate from the NCAR CCSM3.0 IPCC A2 and B1 scenarios downscaled and bias corrected to 1/8o resolution. Regrowing forests are the only ecosystem with positive Net Carbon Exchange (NCE, Net Ecosystem Productivity minus carbon losses from the conversion of natural vegetation to cultivation and decomposition of agricultural and wood products, where positive indicates ecosystem sink), and sequester about 11,000 g C m-2 over the 20th century. The highest rates of leaching of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) occur in those areas that are fertilized, which include urban turf lawns

  7. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Adam E Vorsino; Fred A Amidon; Eben H Paxton; James D Jacobi

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the different...

  8. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  9. Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model

    Alkama, Ramdane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles

    2010-09-01

    The recent evolution of continental runoff is still an open question. A related and controversial question is the attribution of this change and its consequences on our predictions of the behavior of future runoff. Here, the Land Surface Model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems is used to perform a set of transient simulations of the runoff from 1900 to 2100. We first show that the model's simulated runoff increases for the 20th century from a global point of view as well as its geographical pattern changes are close to the observations made in this paper. Moreover this trend is simulated to increase further during the 21st century under the SRES A2 scenario. We have designed a set of simulations to test the impact on global runoff evolution of three factors: climate, stomatal conductance, and vegetation growth, all sensitive to CO2 increase. A complete factor-separation analysis of the influence of these three factors and of their interactions shows that climate change largely drives the 20th and 21st century runoff increase. The other two factors (stomatal conductance and vegetation growth) play a minor role in the 20th century runoff trend but we show that these contributions increase for the 21st century simulations. Although the interactions between the factors also plays a negligible role in the 20th century global runoff increase, our results show that they become significant during the 21st century, usually reducing the direct effect of each factor. However, our study does not reveal any important negative feedback to counteract the effect of climate warming on the hydrological cycle.

  10. Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

    Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; Grouillet, Benjamin

    2016-08-01

    This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water

  11. Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

    Fortini, Lucas; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  12. Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21(st) century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends.

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos A; Maier, Harald; Frühauf, Cathleen; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21(st) century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils. PMID:27585648

  13. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  14. Girltalk: Energy, Climate and Water in the 21ST Century

    Olson, H. C.; Osborne, V.; Bush, R.; Bauer, S.; Bourgeois, E.; Brownlee, D.; Clark, C.; Ellins, K. K.; Hempel-Medina, D.; Hernandez, A.; Hovorka, S. D.; Olson, J. E.; Romanak, K.; Smyth, R. C.; Tinker, S.; Torres-Verdin, C.; Williams, I. P.

    2011-12-01

    In preparation for Earth Science Week, The University of Texas at Austin, Striker Communications and Ursuline Academy of Dallas partnered on a GirlTalk event ("Energy, Climate and Water in the 21st Century") to create a two-day (Fri-Sat), community science symposium and open house on critical issues surrounding energy, water and climate. On Friday, over 800 high school girls and 100 teachers from Ursuline participated in hands-on activities (led by faculty, researchers and graduate students from UT Austin and professionals from the surrounding Dallas community), films and discussions, plenary sessions and an expert panel discussion. An opening talk by Dr. Hilary Olson on "Energy, Water and Climate in the 21st Century: Critical Issues for the Global Community" began the day. A series of hands-on activities, and science and technology films with discussion followed. Each girl had an individualized, modular schedule for the day, completing four of the over twenty modules offered. During lunch, Dr. Scott Tinker, Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology, presented a compelling talk on "Time, Technology and Transition", and afterwards girls attended another round of hands-on activities in the afternoon. The day ended with a panel discussion where girls could submit questions to the various participants from the day's activities. The exciting experience of a full day of GirlTalk led many high school girls to volunteer for the middle school event on the following morning (Sat.), when 150 middle school girls and their mentors (parents, teachers) attended a community-wide public event to learn about the energy, water and climate nexus. "Breakfast with a Pro" was hosted by the various professionals. Girls and their mentors enjoyed breakfast and discussion about topics and careers in the earth sciences and engineering with presenters, followed by an informal discussion with a panel of professionals. Next, girls and their mentors were each given a pre-assigned individual

  15. 2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century

    The EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios explores a rich suite of potential future worlds in which climate change is limited to a variety of alternative radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses primarily on the requirements to limit radiative forcing from Kyoto gases to 2.6 W/m2. Given that we estimate year 2005 radiative forcing to be 2.4 W/m2, the 2.6 W/m2 limit creates a non-trivial constraint. Allowing radiative forcing to exceed the long-term target level provides greater latitude in achieving the goal, but implies major changes to both global energy and land-use systems in the near term as well as the long term. In addition, delay on the part of major emitting parties creates potential 'leakage' in both energy and land use. We estimate the challenging near-term and long-term deployment of new wind power, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage associated with the 2.6 W/m2 limit.

  16. Vadose zone lag time and potential 21st century climate change effects on spatially distributed groundwater recharge in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills

    Rossman, N. R.; Zlotnik, V. A.; Rowe, C. M.; Szilagyi, J.

    2014-11-01

    Deep drainage of water below plant root zones (potential groundwater recharge) will become groundwater recharge (GR) after a delay (or lag time) in which soil moisture traverses the vadose zone before reaching the water table. Depending on the thickness of the vadose zone, the magnitude of deep drainage, and soil hydraulic properties, lag times will vary broadly, exceeding decades to centuries in semi-arid and arid environments. Yet, studies of future climate change impacts to GR have typically avoided focusing on impacts beyond 100 years and often neglect to consider lag effects caused by the vadose zone. We investigate the effects of vadose zone lag time and potential 21st century climate change on the spatial distribution and timing of GR throughout the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH) region (∼50,000 km2). We propose a simple and rapid quantitative approach for assessment of the groundwater system response time to changes in climate. Understanding of such effects is needed for groundwater modeling, analysis of climate change impacts on groundwater, and the effective management and sustainability of future water resources. Lag time estimates are made using the pressure-based vertical velocity of soil moisture changes, equivalent to a kinematic wave approximation of Richards' equation. The underlying assumptions (unit hydraulic gradient and relatively slow changes in climate) are supported by observations in the High Plains aquifer region, encompassing the NSH. The analysis relies on four sources of input data, including: Spatially distributed high resolution (1.1-km) GR rates (as the difference in 2000-2009 mean precipitation and evapotranspiration-estimated using a novel MODIS-based approach); thickness of the vadose zone-based on 30-m digital elevation models of the land surface and water table elevations; statistically downscaled estimates of future (2010-2099) potential GR rates from two hydroclimate model projections (WRCP CMIP3) with opposing GR

  17. Mid-21st Century Changes to Surface Hydrology Over the Los Angeles Region

    Schwartz, Marla Ann

    2013-01-01

    This thesis explores projected mid-21st century changes to surface hydrological fluxes and states in the Los Angeles region at 2km resolution. This work quantifies and describes potential impacts of climate change to precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil column moisture content in the Los Angeles region. Little previous research has focused on the impacts of climate change to water resources and surface hydrology in this region. We simulate detailed climatologies of surface hydro...

  18. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  19. Projection of global climate change scenarios onto the Hawaiian Islands: Estimating the characteristics of rainfall for the 21st century

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This project will build on existing experience with statistical downscaling methods to derive comprehensive estimates of the future rainfall changes over the...

  20. Permafrost and Climate Change: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow. A Coupled Climate Model Projection for the 20th and 21st Centuries.

    Lawrence, D. M.; Slater, A. G.

    2005-12-01

    The representation of permafrost is examined in a fully coupled climate model, the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Permafrost and frozen ground is explicitly modeled in CCSM3, including interactive hydrology. We examine five member ensembles of CCSM3 integrations of 20th century climate as well as a number of IPCC SRES emission scenarios, including the A2 and commitment scenarios, that were conducted at NCAR in support of the fourth IPCC assessment report (AR4). Permafrost during the late 20th century is reasonably simulated in CCSM3, particularly in terms of the spatial extent which agrees well with observational estimates. Under the A2 emission scenario, permafrost, excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, nearly completely disappears by the end of the 21st century. The impact of the dramatic loss of permafrost on surface fluxes of moisture and energy and on runoff to the Arctic Ocean is assessed. Among other impacts, total column soil water decreases, despite significantly stronger precipitation, due to enhanced drainage through the ice-free soil column. However, despite the fact that column soil water is reduced, there is more liquid soil water available for plants. The potentially positive climate feedback related to the likely increase in methane emissions from the newly active soil carbon pools will also be discussed.

  1. Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century

    Alessandri, Andrea; de Felice, Matteo; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Cherchi, Annalisa; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Ruti, Paolo; Artale, Vincenzo

    2014-12-01

    The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type. Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized.

  2. Improving modelled impacts on the flowering of temperate fruit trees in the Iberian Peninsula of climate change projections for 21st century

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Pérez-Lopez, David; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Centeno, Ana; Dosio, Alessandro; Lopez-de-la-Franca, Noelia

    2013-04-01

    Flowering of temperate trees needs winter chilling, being the specific requirements dependent on the variety. This work studied the trend and changes of values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. According to our previous results (Pérez-López et al., 2012), areas traditionally producing fruit as the Ebro (NE of Spain) or Guadalquivir (SO) valleys, Murcia (SE) and Extremadura (SO) could have a major cold reduction of chill-hours. This would drive a change of varieties or species and may enhance the use of chemicals to complete the needs of chill hours for flowering. However, these results showed high uncertainty, partly due to the bias of the climate data used, generated by Regional Climate Models. The chilling hours were calculated with different methods according to the species considered: North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was used for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The climate data used as inputs were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012). This work aims to improve the impact projections obtained in Pérez-López et al. (2012). For this purpose, variation of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20th century and 1st half of 21st century at the study locations were recalculated considering 1) a feedback in the dates in which the chilling hours are calculated, to take into account the shift of phenological dates, and 2) substituting the original ENSEMBLES data set of climate used in Pérez-López et al. (2012) by the bias corrected data set. Calculations for the 2nd half of 20th

  3. Analysis of snow in the 20th and 21st century Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model simulations

    DéRy, Stephen J.; Wood, Eric F.

    2006-10-01

    We evaluate the representation of the 20th century Northern Hemisphere, North American, and Eurasian snow cover extent, frequency, and mass by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model, version 2 (CM2) and then explore the 21st century trends and changes in these quantities. The CM2 simulations of 20th century climate capture the seasonal cycle in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent and produce a mean annual snow area of 25 × 106 km2 that equals the satellite-based observations for the period 1973-2000. The simulated snow cover frequency and snow mass generally decline from north to south, but longitudinal gradients in these variables are also found. Snow mass over North America, especially during spring, is underestimated by CM2. Simulations of 21st century climate using three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios reveal strong trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, frequency, and mass. These simulations suggest that the annual Northern Hemisphere mean snow cover extent (total snow mass) will decrease by 12 to 26% (20 to 40%) by 2100 from their 21st century mean values. Large declines in 21st century snow cover frequency (up to 50%) and snow mass (up to 100 kg m-2) arise during fall, winter, and spring over southern Canada and the northern United States, the Western Cordillera of North America, and western Eurasia compared to the 20th century CM2 simulations.

  4. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Burgess, Neil David; Cabeza, Mar;

    2012-01-01

    Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate...... projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17...... exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological...

  5. Climate Change Impacts on the Los Angeles Aqueducts Water Sources: 21st Century Hydrologic Projections for Owens Valley and Mono Lake Watershed

    Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Roy, S. B.; Maurer, E. P.; Mills, W. B.; Chen, L.

    2011-12-01

    Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watersheds of Owens Lake and Mono Lake is one of the main water sources, and the one of highest quality, for Los Angeles' more than 4 million people. Winter snow is stored in the large snowpack reservoir, and meltwater (~0.2-0.5 million acre-feet) is delivered annually to the city in the dry season by the 340-mile long Los Angeles Aqueduct system, operated by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. We identify plausible scenarios of future climate conditions in the Owens-Mono watersheds over the 21st century based on CMIP3 results for 16 global climate models (GCMs) statistically downscaled to 1/8° and greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and B1; and we evaluate the consequent hydrologic impacts using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Such climate scenarios have large and unquantifiable associated uncertainty and do not represent predictions, but are considered to be plausible under the current state of knowledge. We applied VIC to the Owens-Mono watersheds and calibrated the model using monthly streamflow records provided by LADWP. Of most interest to Los Angeles' water supply are the projections for the snowpack and the dry-season hydrograph that relies on snowmelt. Our results indicate future increases in the fraction of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, from a historical value of about 20% to 20-30% by mid-century and 28-52% by end of century (depending on the GCM) for scenario A2. As a result, the snowpack's peak snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline by most GCMs. The SWE peak is also projected to shift toward earlier dates (by a few days by mid-century and by a GCM-average of 2 weeks by end of century under emissions scenario A2). The diminished SWE, earlier SWE peak and earlier melt associated with rising temperatures result in earlier hydrograph peaks, a shift in the date marking the passage of half of the year's hydrograph volume (by more than one

  6. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie A.

    2016-06-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976-2005), mid-century, and end-century time periods for the December-February and June-August seasons. The December-February regional wave climate is dominated by strong winds and large swell from extratropical cyclones in the north Pacific while the June-August season brings smaller waves generated by the trade winds and swell from Southern Hemisphere extratropical storms. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~ 10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing RCP 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing RCP 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-century June-August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December-February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June-August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds' influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell. The results of this study underscore that December-February large wave events will become smaller and less frequent in most regions, reducing the likelihood and magnitude of wave

  7. Stratospheric Temperature Changes and Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

    HU Yongyun; XIA Yan; GAO Mei; LU Daren

    2009-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3) used in the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.

  8. Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

    Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

  9. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Durner, G.M.; Douglas, D.C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, M.; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, M.C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, J.; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  10. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    N. Wanders

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five GCMs and four emission scenarios (RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime, has a substantial influence on future hydrological drought characteristics.

  11. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  12. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

    Kerry A. Emanuel

    2013-01-01

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases...

  13. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

    2016-01-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

  14. Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

    K. Tourpali

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs. The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.

  15. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-11-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day-1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (-1.0 W m-2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in

  16. The African contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle feedback of the 21st century

    Friedlingstein, P.; Cadule, P.; Piao, S. L.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.

    2008-12-01

    Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES-A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4-LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 20% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. However, the African rainforest ecosystem alone makes only a negligible contribution to the overall feedback, much smaller than the one arising from the Amazon forest. This is first because of the two times smaller area of forest in Africa, but also because of the relatively lower local land carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. This beneficial role of African forests in mitigating future climate change should be taken into account when designing forest conservation policy.

  17. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

    WU ShaoHong; DAI ErFu; HUANG Mei; SHAO XueMei; LI ShuangCheng; TAO Bo

    2007-01-01

    This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from.he Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 kmx50 km)over China.This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES.A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AV1M2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century.Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation.Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time.The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts.Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems.Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types.When the extreme events happen,vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest,woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest.Climate change would not always be negative.It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term.However,in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.

  18. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    D. M. Westervelt

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3 to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d−1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5. The expected unmasking of global warming caused

  19. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day−1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day−1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  20. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  1. Assessing changes in precipitation and temperature over the Iberian Peninsula during the 21st century

    Bernardino, Mariana; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima; Pinto, Armando

    2016-04-01

    Climate is a major factor driving the spatio-temporal distribution of most ecological systems and human activities, due to their vulnerability to inter-annual climate variability and to climate change. These systems are very sensitive to changes in traditional patterns of regional climate but also to the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. Changes in surface air temperature extremes and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula were investigated using one of the high resolution climate simulations produced by the Euro-Cordex consortium. Two sets of simulations forced with the new IPCC AR5 emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km were used to compute climate indices defined by the European Climate Assessment (ECA) project, for present (1970-2010) and for the 21st century climates. Changes in magnitude and in the spatial patterns of these indices were evaluated and once the expected impacts in different sectors are related with these changes, the results provide information to be used in sectoral adaption measures, namely in tourism, water, agriculture, human health, energy and infrastructures.

  2. Climate and carbon cycle variations in the 20th and 21st centuries in a model of intermediate complexity

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Karpenko, A. A.

    2007-02-01

    The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), has been supplemented by a zero-dimensional carbon cycle model. With the carbon dioxide emissions prescribed for the second half of the 19th century and for the 20th century, the model satisfactorily reproduces characteristics of the carbon cycle over this period. However, with continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2), the climate-carbon cycle feedback in the model leads to an additional atmospheric CO2 increase (in comparison with the case where the influence of climate changes on the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface is disregarded). This additional increase is varied in the range 67 90 ppmv depending on the scenario and is mainly due to the dynamics of soil carbon storage. The climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter varies nonmonotonically with time. Positions of its extremes separate characteristic periods of the change in the intensity of anthropogenic emissions and of climate variations. By the end of the 21st century, depending on the emission scenario, the carbon dioxide concentration is expected to increase to 615 875 ppmv and the global temperature will rise by 2.4 3.4 K relative to the preindustrial value. In the 20th 21st centuries, a general growth of the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean and its reduction in terrestrial ecosystems can be expected. In general, by the end of the 21st century, the more aggressive emission scenarios are characterized by a smaller climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter, a lower sensitivity of climate to a single increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions stored in the atmosphere and the ocean, and a smaller fraction of emissions in terrestrial ecosystems.

  3. Estimating 21st century changes in extreme sea levels around Western Australia

    Extreme sea levels are likely to increase in the future with an expected accelerated rise in mean sea level and through possible changes in storminess. Society is becoming more vulnerable to extreme sea levels due to considerable growth in human populations and economy at the coastal zone and this is particularly true for Western Australia, the fastest growing Australian state or region. This paper describes a novel approach used to estimate future changes in extreme sea level around the southwest coastline of Western Australia. Probabilities of extreme sea level for the present climate have been estimated using a 60 year hindcast of sea levels. The impact of climate change has been explored by adding a range of mean sea level rise projections to these probabilities. Estimates of possible future changes in recurrence intervals every decade over the 21st century are presented, showing that climate change has the potential to significantly reduce current average recurrence intervals and that the amount of reduction varies significantly around the coastline.

  4. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    Fortini, Lucas B; Vorsino, Adam E; Amidon, Fred A; Paxton, Eben H; Jacobi, James D

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. PMID:26509270

  5. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    Lucas B Fortini

    Full Text Available Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows. Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  6. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  7. Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions: case studies for Paris and Stockholm

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Engardt, M.; Lacressonnière, G.; Vautard, R.; Andersson, C.

    2015-10-01

    Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modeled at 4 and 1 \\unit{km} horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional scale emission projections over the study areas by comparing modeled pollutant concentrations between the fine and coarse scale simulations. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g., the city of Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modeling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily average and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The joined climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -10 and -5 % while for Stockholm we observe mixed trends up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily average and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM and through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily average ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not

  8. Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions - case studies for Paris and Stockholm

    Markakis, Konstantinos; Valari, Myrto; Engardt, Magnuz; Lacressonniere, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Andersson, Camilla

    2016-02-01

    Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modelled at 4 and 1 km horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine-resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional-scale emission projections by comparing modelled pollutant concentrations between the fine- and coarse-scale simulations over the study areas. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. the city of Stockholm) the bias related to coarse-scale projections may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modelling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily mean and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -5 and -10 %, while for Stockholm we estimate mixed trends of up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily mean and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM. Through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily mean ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change

  9. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  10. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  11. Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century

    Gabaldón, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Inés Mínguez, M.; Dosio, Alessandro; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2013-04-01

    The objective of this work is to generate and analyse adaptation strategies to cope with impacts of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Andalusia (Southern Spain) in a semi-arid environment, with focus on extreme events. In Andalusia, located in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, cereals crops may be affected by the increase in average temperatures, the precipitation variability and the possible extreme events. Those impacts may cause a decrease in both water availability and the pollination rate resulting on a decrease in yield and the farmer's profitability. Designing local and regional adaptation strategies to reduce these negative impacts is necessary. This study is focused on irrigated maize on five Andalusia locations. The Andalusia Network of Agricultural Trials (RAEA in Spanish) provided the experimental crop and soil data, and the observed climate data were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia and the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET in Spanish). The data for future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were generated by Dosio and Paruolo (2011) and Dosio et al. (2012), who corrected the bias of ENSEMBLES data for maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. ENSEMBLES data were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Crop models considered were CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, and CropSyst (Stockle et al., 2003). Those crop models were applied only on locations were calibration and validation were done. The effects of the adaptations strategies, such as changes in sowing dates or choice of cultivar, were evaluated regarding water consumption; changes in phenological dates were also analysed to compare with occurrence of extreme events of maximum temperature. These events represent a threat on summer crops due to the reduction on the duration of

  12. Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

    O. J. Squire

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Isoprene is a precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry–climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth-system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the MCM over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide ranging response is due to differences in the types of peroxy radicals produced by isoprene oxidation, and their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene-nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. Additionally, by combining the emissions and O3 data from all of the global model integrations, we

  13. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  14. 21st Century Learning Skills Embedded in Climate Literacy Teacher Professional Development

    Myers, R. J.; Schwerin, T. G.; Blaney, L.

    2011-12-01

    Trilling and Fadel's "21st Century Learning Skills" defines a vision of how to infuse an expanded set of skills, competencies and flexibilities into the classroom. Among these skills are global awareness, health and environmental literacy. The authors contend that in order for our students to compete, they will need critical thinking and problem solving skills, communication and collaboration, and creativity and innovation. Students will also need to be digital savvy. This poster outlines a program of preparing teachers to implement inquiry-based modules that allow students to exercise hypothetical deductive reasoning to address climate literacy issues such as: the Dust Bowl, thermohaline circulation, droughts, the North Atlantic Oscillation, climate variability and energy challenges. This program is implemented through the Earth System Science Education Alliance. ESSEA supports the educational goal of "attracting and retaining students in science careers" and the associated goal of "attracting and retaining students in science through a progression of educational opportunities for students, teachers and faculty." ESSEA provides long-duration educator professional development that results in deeper content understanding and confidence in teaching global climate change and science disciplines. The target audience for this effort is pre-service and in-service K-12 teachers. The ESSEA program develops shared educational resources - including modules and courses - that are based on NASA and NOAA climate science and data. The program is disseminated through the ESSEA Web site: http://essea.courses.strategies.org. ESSEA increases teachers' access to high-quality materials, standards-based instructional methods and content knowledge. Started in 2000 and based on online courses for K-12 teachers, ESSEA includes the participation of faculty at 45 universities and science centers. Over 3,500 pre- and in-service K-12 teachers have completed ESSEA courses. In addition to 21st

  15. Long-range Prediction of climatic Change in the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand over the 21st Century using various Downscaling Approaches

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred; Koontanakulvong, Sucharit

    2010-05-01

    Triggered by a long drought, a huge water supply crisis took place at the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand (east of the Gulf of Thailand) in 2005. In that year no rainfall occurred for four months after the beginning of the rainy season which led to the situation that the industrial estates of the Eastern Seaboard were not able to fully operate. Normally, most of the urban and industrial water used in this coastal region along east of the Gulf of Thailand, which is part of the Pacific Ocean, is surface water stored in a large-scale reservoir-network across the main watershed in the region. Thus the three major reservoirs usually gather water from monsoon storms that blow from the South and provide accumulative 80% of the annual rainfall during the 6 months of the rainy season which normally lasts from May-October. During the dry season (November - April) the winds are blowing from northern Indo-China land mass and rain drops only a few days in a month. Because of this typical tropical climate system, surface water resources across most of the southeastern Asia-Pacific region and the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand, in particular, rely on the annual occurrence of the monsoon season. There is now sufficient evidence that the named extreme weather conditions of 2005 occurring in that part of Thailand are not a singularity, but might be another signal of recent ongoing climate change in that country as a whole. Because of this imminent threat to the water resources of the region, and for the set-up of appropriate water management schemes for the near future, a climate impact study is proposed here. More specifically, the water budget of the Khlong Yai basin, which is the main watershed of the Eastern Seaboard, is modeled using the distributed hydrological model SWAT. To that avail the watershed model is coupled sequentially to a global climate model (GCM), whereby the latter provides the input forcing parameters (e.g. precipitation and temperature) to the former. Because of

  16. Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change will very likely impact future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of human water use including reservoir regulation and climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale. The global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB is used to simulate daily discharge globally at 0.5 ° resolution for 1971-2099. The model was forced with the latest CMIP5 climate projections taken from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (RCPs), under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. A natural or pristine scenario has been used to calculate the impact of the changing climate on hydrological drought and has been compared to a scenario with human influences. In the latter scenario reservoir operations and human water use are included in the simulations of discharge for the 21st century. The impact of humans on the low flow regime and hydrological drought characteristics has been studied at a catchment scale. Results show a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100%. The differences between Representative Concentration Pathways are small indicating that human water use is proportional to the changes in the climate. Reservoirs tend to reduce the impact of drought by water retention in the wet season, which in turn will lead to increased water availability in the dry season, especially for large regions in Europe and North America. The impact of climate change varies throughout the season for parts of Europe and North-America, while in other regions (e.g. North-Africa, Middle East and Mediterranean), the impact is not influenced by seasonal changes. This study illustrates that the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial

  17. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  18. Projected changes in high ozone pollution events over the Eastern United States over the 21st century

    Rieder, Harald E.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horrowitz, Larry W.; Naik, Vaishali

    2014-05-01

    Over the past few decades, thresholds for the United States (US) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3), established to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. We recently applied methods from extreme value theory (EVT) to maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (MDA8 O3) observed by the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) to quantify the significant decline in both frequency and magnitude of high O3 pollution events over the Eastern US from 1988 to 2009. These improvements to Eastern US air quality have been reported in prior studies and result from changes in air quality regulations and subsequent control measures (e.g., the "NOx SIP Call") as demonstrated by our analysis of 1-year and 5-year return levels. Here we extend this analysis to future projections of high O3 pollution events spanning the course of the 21st century. To this aim, we analyze simulations from the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model under selected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (representing a moderate and strong climate warming with a global mean temperature change by 2100 compared to present day of +2.3K and +4.5K, respectively). Under both scenarios, NOx emissions decrease by ~80% over North America by 2100 under the assumption of aggressive ozone pollution controls. A third scenario, termed RCP4.5_WMGG, in which well-mixed greenhouse gases follow the RCP4.5 scenario but O3 and aerosol precursor emissions are held at 2005 levels, enables us to isolate the role of climate change from that of emission reductions. As we find a positive bias in GFDL CM3 MDA8 O3 compared to the Eastern US CASTNet O3 measurements during summer (a common feature in the current generation of models), we develop a correction method based on quantile-mapping. This bias correction effectively removes the model bias while preserving the temporal changes in MDA8 O3 as simulated under different RCPs over the course of the 21st

  19. Köppen–Geiger climate classification by different regional climate models according to the SRES A1B scenario in the 21st century

    Szabó-Takács, Beáta; Farda, Aleš; Zahradníček, Pavel; Štěpánek, Petr

    Brno: Global Change Research Centre, The Czech Academy of Sciences, v. v. i., 2015 - (Urban, O.; Šprtová, M.; Klem, K.), s. 18-21 ISBN 978-80-87902-10-3. [Global Change: A Complex Challenge /4th/. Brno (CZ), 23.03.2015-24.03.2015] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate models * climate classification * 21st century Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  20. The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone changes through the 21st century to N2O and CH4

    E. Rozanov

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N2O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N2O and CH4. Increases in reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone loss resulting from increasing N2O concentrations lead to a decrease in global-mean total column ozone. Increasing CH4 concentrations increase the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss in the upper stratosphere. Overall however, increasing CH4 concentrations lead to an increase in global-mean total column ozone. Stratospheric column ozone over the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N2O and CH4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases.

  1. Infusing Creativity and Technology in 21st Century Education: A Systemic View for Change

    Henriksen, Danah; Mishra, Punya; Fisser, Petra

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we explore creativity alongside educational technology, as fundamental constructs of 21st century education. Creativity has become increasingly important, as one of the most important and noted skills for success in the 21st century. We offer a definition of creativity; and draw upon a systems model of creativity, to suggest…

  2. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  3. Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

    Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

    2016-05-01

    This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of

  4. 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses due to increasing temperature, projected with the CMIP5 models

    H. X. Shi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in snow water equivalent (SWE over Northern Hemisphere (NH landmasses are investigated for the early (2016–2035, middle (2046–2065 and late (2080–2099 21st century using twenty global climate models, which are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. The results show that, relative to the 1986–2005 mean, the multi-model ensemble projects a significant decrease in SWE for most regions, particularly over the Tibetan Plateau and western North America, but an increase in eastern Siberia. Seasonal SWE projections show an overall decreasing trend, with the greatest reduction in spring, which is linked to the stronger inverse partial correlation between the SWE and increasing temperature. Moreover, zonal mean annual SWE exhibits significant reductions in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, a stronger linear relationship between SWE and temperature at mid–high latitudes suggests the reduction in SWE there is related to rising temperature. However, the rate of reduction in SWE declines gradually during the 21st century, indicating that the temperature may reach a threshold value that decreases the rate of SWE reduction. A large reduction in zonal maximum SWE (ZMSWE between 30° and 40° N is evident in all 21st century for the three RCPs, while RCP8.5 alone indicates a further reduction at high latitudes in the late period of the century. This pattern implies that ZMSWE is affected not only by a terrain factor but also by the increasing temperature. In summary, our results show both a decreasing trend in SWE in the 21st century and a decline in the rate of SWE reduction over the 21st century despite rising temperatures.

  5. Scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies

    Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Zender, C. S.; Smith, L. C.

    2013-12-01

    Receding Arctic sea ice coupled with increased resource demand in east Asia have recast the Arctic as an international trade space facilitating export of petroleum and minerals and offering potential alternative pathways for global maritime trade. Several studies have examined the future impact of increased vessel traffic in the Arctic on emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon (BC); however, the net impact of these emissions on climate forcing in the region is not well understood. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies. Vessel transits between 5 east Asian ports (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo/Yokohama, Busan) and 2 European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) are estimated from 2010-2050 according to projected sea ice concentration and thickness, trends in cargo export volumes, and vessel ice class and cargo capacity. Sea ice data are represented by a 7-model ensemble mean from CMIP5 under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5). Emissions presented (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, BC) are obtained by convolving projected transits with trends in emissions factors. Results illustrate a range of emissions inventories for the Arctic owing to differences in vessel accessibility, trade volume, routes, and fuel mixtures.

  6. Snow cover and permafrost evolution in Siberia as simulated by the MGO regional climate model in the 20th and 21st centuries

    An approach to ground thermodynamics description using a coupled system of atmospheric regional climate and ground heat transfer models is improved by accounting for the time varying snow density. The simulations are compared to available observational analyses, and the sensitivity of the ground thermal regime to variable snow density is analysed. Projected changes of the ground thermal regime in the 21st century relative to the late 20th century are shown and compared to earlier estimates.

  7. Snow cover and permafrost evolution in Siberia as simulated by the MGO regional climate model in the 20th and 21st centuries

    Shkolnik, I. M.; Nadyozhina, E. D.; Pavlova, T. V.; Molkentin, E. K.; Semioshina, A. A.

    2010-01-01

    An approach to ground thermodynamics description using a coupled system of atmospheric regional climate and ground heat transfer models is improved by accounting for the time varying snow density. The simulations are compared to available observational analyses, and the sensitivity of the ground thermal regime to variable snow density is analysed. Projected changes of the ground thermal regime in the 21st century relative to the late 20th century are shown and compared to earlier estimates.

  8. CESM-simulated 21st Century Changes in Large Scale Crop Water Requirements and Yields

    Levis, S.; Badger, A.; Drewniak, B. A.; O'Neill, B. C.; Ren, X.

    2014-12-01

    We assess potential changes in crop water requirements and corresponding yields relative to the late 20th century in major crop producing regions of the world by using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven with 21st century meteorology from RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. The RCP4.5 simulation allows us to explore the potential for averted societal impacts when compared to the RCP8.5 simulation. We consider the possibility for increased yields and improved water use efficiency under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO2 due to the CO2 fertilization effect (also known as concentration-carbon feedback). We address uncertainty in the current understanding of plant CO2 fertilization by repeating the simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect. Simulations without CO2 fertilization represent the radiative effect of elevated CO2 (i.e., warming) without representing the physiological effect of elevated CO2 (enhanced carbon uptake and increased water use efficiency by plants during photosynthesis). Preliminary results suggest that some plants may suffer from increasing heat and drought in much of the world without the CO2 fertilization effect. On the other hand plants (especially C3) tend to grow more with less water when models include the CO2 fertilization effect. Performing 21st century simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect brackets the potential range of outcomes. In this work we use the CLM crop model, which includes specific crop types that differ from the model's default plant functional types in that the crops get planted, harvested, and potentially fertilized and irrigated according to algorithms that attempt to capture human management decisions. We use an updated version of the CLM4.5 that includes cotton, rice, and sugarcane, spring wheat, spring barley, and spring rye, as well as temperate and tropical maize and soybean.

  9. Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer

    This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under a projected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCC HadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrology model that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologic changes in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assuming unchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and will the groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conducted four 10 yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without the groundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET will increase due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite a decrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain PET or atmospheric demand-limited. Second, in the eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despite increasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soil water or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the eastern Amazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth, river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in the southeastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we found that the slow soil drainage constrained by shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress, particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if groundwater buffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than that projected by most climate models. (letter)

  10. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L.W.; V. Naik; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) sce...

  11. Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century

    Alexander Kislov; Eugenie Evstigneev; Galina Surkova

    2009-01-01

    Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc.And these changes depend on climate.Dynamics of re-sources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate.In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed.Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling, This project includes the world's best climate models, Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical or-thogonal functions) were compared, It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories.In result 11 most successful models were selected, They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario A2 at the 21st century, Estimations of changes of vol-umes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain.Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.

  12. Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century

    Alexander; Kislov; Eugenie; Evstigneev; Galina; Surkova

    2009-01-01

    Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc. And these changes depend on climate. Dynamics of resources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate. In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed. Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling. This project includes the world’s best climate models. Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical orthogonal functions) were compared. It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories. In result 11 most successful models were selected. They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario А2 at the 21st century. Estimations of changes of volumes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain. Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.

  13. 21st Century Change Drivers: Considerations for Constructing Transformative Models of Special Education Teacher Development

    Rock, Marcia L.; Spooner, Fred; Nagro, Sarah; Vasquez, Eleazar; Dunn, Cari; Leko, Melinda; Luckner, John; Bausch, Margaret; Donehower, Claire; Jones, Jennie L.

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary challenges confronting special education teachers include, in part, workload, role ambiguity, evaluation, and shortages. Based on these and other challenges, the piece-meal fragmented approach to pre- and in-service training, which exists currently, needs to be replaced with 21st century models of special education teacher development…

  14. Tradition and the Pace of Change in 21st Century Education

    Barnett, Chad

    2011-01-01

    "Character," "creativity," "real-world problem solving," "communication skills," "teaming," and "leadership" are some of the skills and values that will be expected of graduates. In the conversation about what constitutes a high-quality 21st century school, however, the more complex question is about the varied paths schools might take to achieve…

  15. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  16. Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

    A. F. Bais

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM, as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 % in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 % is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %. The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980 depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°, the projected decreases in cloud

  17. Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

    A. F. Bais

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM, as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects on both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and from the diversity in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980 annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1% in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16% is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects result in additional 2–3% reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1%. The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980 depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone dynamics due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At high northern latitudes, the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will likely reduce the yearly average

  18. 21st century projections of surface mass balance changes for major drainage systems of the Greenland ice sheet

    Outputs from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale at a spatial resolution of 25 km are used to study 21st century projected surface mass balance (SMB) over six major drainage basins of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The regional model is forced with the outputs of three different Earth System Models (CanESM2, NorESM1 and MIROC5) obtained when considering two greenhouse gas future scenarios with levels of CO2 equivalent of, respectively, 850 and >1370 ppm by 2100. Results indicate that the increase in runoff due to warming will exceed the increased precipitation deriving from the increase in evaporation for all basins, with the amount of net loss of mass at the surface varying spatially. Basins along the southwest and north coast are projected to have the highest sensitivity of SMB to increasing temperatures. For these basins, the global temperature anomaly corresponding to a decrease of the SMB below the 1980–99 average (when the ice sheet was near the equilibrium) ranges between +0.60 and +2.16 °C. For the basins along the northwest and northeast, these values range between +1.50 and +3.40 °C. Our results are conservative as they do not account for ice dynamics and changes in the ice sheet topography. (letter)

  19. Aiming Talent Development toward Creative Eminence in the 21st Century

    Olszewski-Kubilius, Paula; Subotnik, Rena F.; Worrell, Frank C.

    2016-01-01

    Much has been written about the social and scientific problems that face the world in the 21st century, including climate change and economic inequality. In this context, the development of talented individuals who can tackle these problems is most important. In this article, the authors discuss the implications of 21st-century challenges for the…

  20. A comparison of changes model produced temperature and precipitation extremes with observed changes for the 20th Century and Simulated Changes for the 21st Century.

    Easterling, D. R.; Gleason, B.; Vose, R. S.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2006-12-01

    Observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes for the latter half of the 20th century generally show increases in warm temperature extremes, decreases in cold extremes, and increases in heavy precipitation events (Alexander et al. 2006). Here we use daily values from a general circulation model simulation for the 20th century using observed greenhouse gas and other forcings produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the definition of extremes found in Alexander et al. (2006) as well as other extremes to compare how changes in the model-produced extremes compare to the changes in observed extremes. The model used is the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Climate Model 2.1. We also examine how these temperature and precipitation extremes change in simulations produced using two 21st century forcing scenarios. Alexander, L., et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., D05109,doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.

  1. Changing black carbon transport to the Arctic from present day to the end of 21st century

    Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.

    2016-05-01

    Here we explore how climate warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) impacts Arctic aerosol distributions via changes in atmospheric transport and removal processes. We modify the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model to track distributions and fluxes of 200 black carbon-like tracers emitted from different locations, and we conduct idealized experiments with and without active aerosol deposition. Changing wind patterns, studied in isolation, cause the Arctic burdens of tracers emitted from East Asia and West Europe during winter to increase about 20% by the end of the century while decreasing the Arctic burdens of North American emissions by about 30%. These changes are caused by an altered winter polar dome structure that results from Arctic amplification and inhomogeneous sea ice loss and surface warming, both of which are enhanced in the Chukchi Sea region. The resulting geostrophic wind favors Arctic transport of East Asian emissions while inhibiting poleward transport of North American emissions. When active deposition is also considered, however, Arctic burdens of emissions from northern midlatitudes show near-universal decline. This is a consequence of increased precipitation and wet removal, particularly within the Arctic, leading to decreased Arctic residence time. Simulations with present-day emissions of black carbon indicate a 13.6% reduction in the Arctic annual mean burden by the end of the 21st century, due to warming-induced transport and deposition changes, while simulations with changing climate and emissions under RCP8.5 show a 61.0% reduction.

  2. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2013-08-01

    We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

  3. Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

    L. E. Revell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because tropospheric ozone is both a~greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx, carbon monoxide (CO and volatile organic compounds (VOCs, climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a~simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 6.0. Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximises in the early 21st century at 23%. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70 year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally-averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the longevity of ozone in the troposphere. A~simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6 % increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone, and an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximises in the 2080s, and is mostly caused by methane, which maximises in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change

  4. Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

    S. Wu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with increases in vegetation density in a warmer climate with higher atmospheric CO2 abundance. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050 and 36% in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 and double for large areas in Eurasia over the period of 2000–2100. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global

  5. Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations

    We use CMIP3 multi-model simulations to show how individual hydroclimatic changes will concur to determine even greater alterations of 21st century Mediterranean water cycle characteristics, with contrasting behavior over land and sea. By 2070-2099, the average of the models predicts a 20% decrease in land surface water availability and a 24% increase in the loss of fresh water over the Mediterranean Sea due to precipitation reduction and warming-enhanced evaporation, with a remarkably high consensus among analyzed models. The projected decrease in river runoff from the surrounding land will further exacerbate the increase in Mediterranean Sea fresh water deficit. 20th century simulations indicate that the 'transition' toward drier conditions has already started to occur and has accelerated around the turn of the century towards the larger rates projected for the 21st century. These tendencies are supported by observational evidence of century-long negative trends in regionally averaged precipitation, PDSI and discharge from numerous rivers; and are consistent with reported increases in Mediterranean sea water salinity.

  6. Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

    S. Wu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with changes in the composition of temperate and boreal forests where conifer forests are replaced by those dominated by broadleaf tree types, as well as a CO2-driven increase in vegetation density. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15 % in 2050 and 36 % in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10 % in 2050 and 20 % in 2100. Surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 for large areas in Eurasia. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower

  7. 21st century drought outlook for major climate divisions of Texas based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Implications for water resource management

    Venkataraman, Kartik; Tummuri, Spandana; Medina, Aldo; Perry, Jordan

    2016-03-01

    Management of water resources in Texas (United States) is a challenging endeavor due to rapid population growth in the recent past coupled with significant spatiotemporal variations in climate. While climate conditions impact the availability of water, over-usage and lack of efficient management further complicate the dynamics of supply availability. In this paper, we provide the first look at the impact of climate change projections from an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) on 21st century drought characteristics under three future emission trajectories: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In addition, we evaluate the performance of the ensemble in simulating historical (1950-1999) observations from multiple climate divisions in Texas. Overall, the ensemble performs better in simulating historical temperature than precipitation. In semi-arid locations such as El Paso and Laredo, decreasing precipitation trends are projected even under the influence of climate policies represented by the RCP 4.5. There is little variability in the SPI across climate divisions and across RCPs. The SPEI, on the other hand, generally shows a decreasing trend toward the latter half of the 21st century, with multi-year droughts becoming the norm under the RCP 8.5, particularly in regions that are already dry, such as El Paso. Less severe droughts are projected for the sub-humid eastern edge of the state. Considering that state water planning agencies are already forecasting increased water shortages over the next 50 years, we recommend proactive approaches to risk management such as adjusting the planning tools for potential recurrence of multi-year droughts in regions that are already water-stressed.

  8. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Vavrus, Steve; Waliser, Duane; Schweiger, Axel; Francis, Jennifer

    2009-12-01

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases.

  9. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Vavrus, Steve [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States); Waliser, Duane [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-501, Water and Carbon Cycles Group, Pasadena, CA (United States); Schweiger, Axel [University of Washington, Polar Science Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Francis, Jennifer [Rutgers University, J. J. Howard Marine Laboratory, Highlands, NJ (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases. (orig.)

  10. Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate

    Skinner, Chris B [Stanford University; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL; Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University

    2011-01-01

    he persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the 20th century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability, as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. We find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the Western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, we find that the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes that are induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ, as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the mid levels of the troposphere. Our experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

  11. Identifying 21st Century Capabilities

    Stevens, Robert

    2012-01-01

    What are the capabilities necessary to meet 21st century challenges? Much of the literature on 21st century skills focuses on skills necessary to meet those challenges associated with future work in a globalised world. The result is a limited characterisation of those capabilities necessary to address 21st century social, health and particularly…

  12. Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

    Li, Feng; Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Newman, Paul A.; Waugh, Darryn

    2010-01-01

    Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley cell's rising branch. Model results suggest that eddy forcing may also play a part in the narrowing of the rising branch of the Hadley cell.

  13. Product development in the socio-sphere game changing paradigms for 21st century breakthrough product development and innovation

    2014-01-01

    This book provides a broad overview of a number of game-changing paradigms that are anticipated to reshape 21st century product development. Topics including cloud computing-based design, cloud manufacturing, crowd-sourcing and mass collaboration, open source and social product development will be discussed in the context of advanced distributed and collaborative product creation. The purpose of the book is threefold: (1) to provide decision makers in industry with a solid base for strategic design and manufacturing-related process re-organization; (2) to provide researchers and scientist with the state-of-the-art from an academic perspective as well as a research agenda aimed at advancing the theoretical foundations of the field; and (3) to serve as supplementary reading in design and manufacturing-related courses at universities and technical colleges.

  14. Regional Design Approach in Designing Climatic Responsive Administrative Building in the 21st Century

    Haja Bava Mohidin, Hazrina Binti; Ismail, Alice Sabrina

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to explicate on the study of modern administrative building in Malaysia which portrays regional design approach that conforms to the local context and climate by reviewing two case studies; Perdana Putra (1999) and former Prime Minister's Office (1967). This paper is significant because the country's stature and political statement was symbolized by administrative building as a national icon. In other words, it is also viewed as a cultural object that is closely tied to a particular social context and nation historical moment. Administrative building, therefore, may exhibit various meanings. This paper uses structuralism paradigm and semiotic principles as a methodological approach. This paper is of importance for practicing architects and society in the future as it offers new knowledge and understanding in identifying the suitable climatic consideration that may reflect regionalist design approach in modern administrative building. These elements then may be adopted in designing public buildings in the future with regional values that are important for expressing national culture to symbolize the identity of place and society as well as responsive to climate change.

  15. Regional Design Approach in Designing Climatic Responsive Administrative Building in the 21st Century

    The objective of this paper is to explicate on the study of modern administrative building in Malaysia which portrays regional design approach that conforms to the local context and climate by reviewing two case studies; Perdana Putra (1999) and former Prime Minister's Office (1967). This paper is significant because the country's stature and political statement was symbolized by administrative building as a national icon. In other words, it is also viewed as a cultural object that is closely tied to a particular social context and nation historical moment. Administrative building, therefore, may exhibit various meanings. This paper uses structuralism paradigm and semiotic principles as a methodological approach. This paper is of importance for practicing architects and society in the future as it offers new knowledge and understanding in identifying the suitable climatic consideration that may reflect regionalist design approach in modern administrative building. These elements then may be adopted in designing public buildings in the future with regional values that are important for expressing national culture to symbolize the identity of place and society as well as responsive to climate change

  16. The times they are changing: soil and water conservation in the 21st century

    Changing climate, increased bio-energy demands, and population growth are anticipated to have significant impacts on soil and water conservation in agricultural watersheds in the United States. Only by looking beyond the traditional approaches of the last century and embracing an expanded view of so...

  17. Taking Responsibility into All Matter: Engaging Levinas for the Climate of the 21st Century

    Martin, Betsan

    2016-01-01

    This paper works with Levinasian thought to ask how principles of responsibility can be engaged for the twenty-first century crisis of climate destabilization, and other matters of injustice and exploitation. A case is made for extending an ethics of responsibility from a human-centered view to include humans as interdependent with nature. After a…

  18. Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

    Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

  19. Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century.

    Camilo Mora

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century.

    Mora, Camilo; Wei, Chih-Lin; Rollo, Audrey; Amaro, Teresa; Baco, Amy R; Billett, David; Bopp, Laurent; Chen, Qi; Collier, Mark; Danovaro, Roberto; Gooday, Andrew J; Grupe, Benjamin M; Halloran, Paul R; Ingels, Jeroen; Jones, Daniel O B; Levin, Lisa A; Nakano, Hideyuki; Norling, Karl; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Rex, Michael; Ruhl, Henry A; Smith, Craig R; Sweetman, Andrew K; Thurber, Andrew R; Tjiputra, Jerry F; Usseglio, Paolo; Watling, Les; Wu, Tongwen; Yasuhara, Moriaki

    2013-10-01

    Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24143135

  1. Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

    Mora, Camilo; Wei, Chih-Lin; Rollo, Audrey; Amaro, Teresa; Baco, Amy R.; Billett, David; Bopp, Laurent; Chen, Qi; Collier, Mark; Danovaro, Roberto; Gooday, Andrew J.; Grupe, Benjamin M.; Halloran, Paul R.; Ingels, Jeroen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Levin, Lisa A.; Nakano, Hideyuki; Norling, Karl; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Rex, Michael; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Craig R.; Sweetman, Andrew K.; Thurber, Andrew R.; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Usseglio, Paolo; Watling, Les; Wu, Tongwen; Yasuhara, Moriaki

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24143135

  2. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  3. Whitehead Policy Symposium. The Human Genome Project: Science, law, and social change in the 21st century

    Nichols, E.K.

    2000-02-17

    Advances in the biomedical sciences, especially in human genomics, will dramatically influence law, medicine, public health, and many other sectors of our society in the decades ahead. The public already senses the revolutionary nature of genomic knowledge. In the US and Europe, we have seen widespread discussions about genetic discrimination in health insurance; privacy issues raised by the proliferation of DNA data banks; the challenge of interpreting new DNA diagnostic tests; changing definitions of what it means to be healthy; and the science and ethics of cloning animals and human beings. The primary goal of the Whitehead/ASLME Policy Symposium was to provide a bridge between the research community and professionals, who were just beginning to grasp the potential impact of new genetic technologies on their fields. The ''Human Genome Project: Science, Law, and Social Change in the 21st Century'' initially was designed as a forum for 300-500 physicians, lawyers, consumers, ethicists, and scientists to explore the impact of new genetic technologies and prepare for the challenges ahead.

  4. 21st Century Skills Map

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Partnership for 21st Century Skills (P21) has forged alliances with key national organizations representing the core academic subjects, including Social Studies, English, Math, Science, Geography, World Languages and the Arts. These collaborations have resulted in the development of 21st Century Skills Maps that illustrate the essential…

  5. Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century

    Pepler, Acacia S.; Di Luca, Alejandro; Ji, Fei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Evans, Jason P.; Sherwood, Steven C.

    2016-01-01

    The east coast of Australia is regularly influenced by midlatitude cyclones known as East Coast Lows. These form in a range of synoptic situations and are both a cause of severe weather and an important contributor to water security. This paper presents the first projections of future cyclone activity in this region using a regional climate model ensemble, with the use of a range of cyclone identification methods increasing the robustness of results. While there is considerable uncertainty in projections of cyclone frequency during the warm months, there is a robust agreement on a decreased frequency of cyclones during the winter months, when they are most common in the current climate. However, there is a potential increase in the frequency of cyclones with heavy rainfall and those closest to the coast and accordingly those with potential for severe flooding.

  6. Understanding and Facilitating Change in Higher Education in the 21st Century. ERIC Digest.

    Kezar, Adrianna

    This digest focuses on providing the reader several key insights into the change process in higher education by: (1) presenting a common language for organizational change; (2) describing the multidisciplinary research base on change; (3) highlighting the distinct characteristics of higher education institutions and how this might influence the…

  7. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  8. Older Worker's Adaptation to a Changing Workplace: Employment Issues for the 21st Century.

    Yeatts, Dale E.; Folts, W. Edward; Knapp, James

    1999-01-01

    Older employees have needs, values, and interests that must be met for them to choose to remain, and jobs have requirements they must meet. As the workplace changes, the individual/job fit will also change. Factors affecting older employees' ability to adapt include training, personnel policies, and age discrimination. (SK)

  9. The impact of technological change on military manpower in the 21st century

    Guthrie, Neale D.

    1990-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This thesis analyzed the impact of technological change on military manpower in the future. The scope of the study was very broad in an attempt to capture the wide range of social, economic, organizational and psychological affects that technological change is expected to bring. The review of the literature was divided into four sections; general, discipline-specific, civilian sector forecasts, and military forecasts. The general sect...

  10. Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century.

    Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann; Guo, Yumin

    2016-01-01

    The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500-2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil

  11. Changing needs, opportunities and constraints for the 21st century microbiology laboratory.

    Van Eldere, J

    2005-04-01

    Clinical microbiologists and microbiology laboratories are experiencing changes due to evolving views on 'healthcare delivery' as an economic activity, due to changes in the medical environment and the demographics of the workforce, and technical evolution. Cost-effectiveness of laboratory procedures has been achieved through consolidation and integration of laboratories. Consolidation offers economy of scale and reduction in numbers of on-site staff, but also leads to separation of microbiologists from their clinical colleagues. Integration puts different laboratory disciplines under a single management, and leads to reorganisation of laboratories along common work-lines. Cost-savings combined with on-site availability of laboratories are achieved at the expense of a reduction in the influence of microbiologists in the daily running of the laboratory. Medically, there is growing emphasis on evidence-based diagnostics. Because of time-delays inherent in culturing, microbiology through rapid testing is mandatory. There is an increasing shortage in Europe and the USA of trained microbiology laboratory technicians and microbiologists. This reinforces the trend towards more automation and integration. Technological advances, particularly in molecular diagnostics, offer the possibility of rapid reporting and improvement of the impact of clinical microbiology on patient management. Molecular tests, however, fit perfectly the concept of an integrated laboratory and may further loosen the link between microbiologist and microbiology tests. The challenge for clinical microbiology will be to use new techniques to improve its cost-effectiveness and impact on infectious disease management. The future organisation of microbiology laboratories must support this but is itself of secondary importance. The training of future microbiologist must prepare them for this changing environment. PMID:15816102

  12. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

    2015-12-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the

  13. 21st Century Retention Challenges for the Navy, Generational Changes, Attitudinal Effects, and their Impact on Operations

    Simons, Anna; Salem, Anita

    2014-01-01

    Design Thinking The Secretary of the Navy’s stated vision for 21st century Sailors (and Marines) is to improve readiness and maintain the resiliency of the force, as well as to maintain combat effectiveness by improving the health and well-being of Sailors (and Marines). On paper, the USN acknowledges that to do this it needs a strong organizational culture that instills loyalty, ...

  14. Learning to make change : developing innovation competence for recreating the African university of the 21st century

    Kibwika, P.

    2006-01-01

    There is concern that the present education designed for the 19 th century andan industrialmachinery no longer suits the complex problems of the post-industrial 21 st century. Complexity arises out of the fused multi-dimensional characteristics of social and development problems, yet universities continue to address these as if they were well configured to be addressed by existing academic disciplines. Universities, expected to be champions of educational reforms to suit development needs are...

  15. Historical changes and future projections of precipitation and its extremes in the 20th and 21st century simulation by a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Kitoh, A.; Kamiguchi, K.; Arakawa, O.; Kusunoki, S.

    2010-12-01

    Climate of the 20th century simulation was conducted with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AM60km) from year 1872 to the present, forced with observed historical sea surface temperature and sea ice (HadISST1). Time variations of global and hemisphere average land surface air temperatures are reasonably well simulated in the 20th century. The number of simulated tropical cyclone in the whole globe has decreasing trend throughout the 20th century. Precipitation of the Monsoon Asia region is evaluated against the newly created daily gridded precipitation data set (APHRODITE), which improves topographic features in mountainous regions. The observed data set indicates a delay of the East Asian early summer rainy season (Baiu) in recent decades. The MRI-AM60km well reproduces this feature, but also shows multi-decadal variability. The same model is used for the future climate projections throughout the 21st century. Changes in mountainous precipitaion as well as extreme precipitation are also investigated.

  16. Psychological Science in the 21st Century

    Cacioppo, John T.

    2013-01-01

    Science is constantly changing. If one hopes to keep pace with advances in science, one cannot simply repeat what one has done in the past, whether deciding how to invest limited research funds, searching to replace a retiring colleague, or teaching introductory psychology. Psychological science in the 21st century is more central and integrated…

  17. Explaining the spread of CMIP5 climate models in global-mean thermosteric sea level rise over the 20th and 21st centuries

    Melet, Angelique; Meyssignac, Benoit; Salas y Melia, David

    2015-04-01

    The ocean stores more than 90% of the energy excess associated with anthropogenic climate warming. The resulting warming and thermal expansion of the ocean is a leading contributor to sea level rise. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise therefore depends on the ability of climate models to reproduce ocean warming and induced global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) over the 20th century. This study aims at explaining and trying to reduce the spread of GMTSL across climate models of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 20th and 21st centuries. We first show that the GMTSL rise computed from climate models is approximately proportional to the radiative forcing. The constant of proportionality mostly depends on the climate feedback parameter and the ocean heat uptake efficiency. From that linear relationship, we show that the spread in the net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux (N) explains most of the spread in projections of the GMTSL. The inter-model spread of N is itself mostly explained by the spread in the radiative forcing changes while the spread in climate feedback parameter and ocean heat uptake efficiency play a smaller role. We then compare GMTSL from climate models to observational estimates over the 1961-2005 period. Although the model-ensemble mean is within the uncertainty of observations, a significant number of models consistently overestimate or underestimate the observed GMTSL rise. The contribution of the deep ocean (below 700 m depth) to GMTSL is largely spread among climate models (33 ± 28% over 1900-2005). Selecting the sub-ensemble of models that conserve the energy in the climate system and are within the observational estimates of GMTSL reduces that spread and leads to a contribution of 35 ± 10%. The uncertainty in projected GMTSL in 2100 can also be reduced with a selection of climate models based on the comparison of the climate feedback parameters, ocean heat uptake efficiencies and 20th

  18. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  19. Potential damage to modern building materials from 21st century air pollution.

    Brimblecombe, Peter; Grossi, Carlota Maria

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of damage to building materials has been estimated for the 21st century, with a particular focus on aluminum, zinc, copper, plastic, paint, and rubber in urban areas. We set idealized air pollution and climates to represent London and Prague across the period 1950-2100. Environmental parameters were used to estimate future recession, corrosion, and loss of properties through published damage or dose-response functions. The 21st century seems to provide a less aggressive environment for stone and metals than recent times. Improvements in air quality are the most relevant drivers for this amelioration. Changes in climate predicted for the 21st century do not alter this picture. On the other hand, polymeric materials, plastic, paint, and rubber might show slightly increased rates of degradation, to some extent the result of enhanced oxidant concentrations, but also the possibility of contributions from more solar radiation. PMID:20098955

  20. Potential Damage to Modern Building Materials from 21st Century Air Pollution

    Peter Brimblecombe

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of damage to building materials has been estimated for the 21st century, with a particular focus on aluminum, zinc, copper, plastic, paint, and rubber in urban areas. We set idealized air pollution and climates to represent London and Prague across the period 1950–2100. Environmental parameters were used to estimate future recession, corrosion, and loss of properties through published damage or dose-response functions. The 21st century seems to provide a less aggressive environment for stone and metals than recent times. Improvements in air quality are the most relevant drivers for this amelioration. Changes in climate predicted for the 21st century do not alter this picture. On the other hand, polymeric materials, plastic, paint, and rubber might show slightly increased rates of degradation, to some extent the result of enhanced oxidant concentrations, but also the possibility of contributions from more solar radiation.

  1. 20th and 21st Century Climate Simulations and Projections in Central Africa by CMIP5 Climate Models

    Aloysius, N. R.; Saiers, J. E.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-12-01

    Global and regional climate change assessments rely heavily on the Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs provided by the IPCC's Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). In this study, we evaluate the ability of 25 GCMs to simulate historical precipitation and near surface temperature fields in Central Africa, apply a quantile-mapping based bias correction to monthly climate fields, and develop three-hourly, daily, and monthly bias-corrected fields for the period 1948-2099. The dataset, at 1.0o latitude/longitude horizontal resolution, is constructed by combining a suite of global observation and reanalysis based monthly and three-hourly data, monthly GCM simulations for the twentieth century, and twenty-first century projections for the IPCC medium mitigation (RCP45) and high emission (RCP85) scenarios. The GCMs simulate historical temperature better than precipitation, but substantial spatial heterogeneity exists among models. Many models show limited skill in simulating the seasonal evolution of present day precipitation, but none of them reveal changes in the seasonality in the future at monthly scale. We present the comparison of historical model performance by individual GCMs as well as several combinations of multimodel ensemble averages. Our results do not reveal any improvement in model performance between high- and low-resolution GCMs during the historical period. But, the multimodel averages of better performing models show greater skills in reproducing the historical climate over randomly selected GCM averages in Central Africa. Our analyses also show that the choice of GCM and emission scenario will dominate the uncertainty in climate change projections. Although our analyses are done for the Central African region, the final dataset is available for global land areas, which will be useful for a variety of climate impact, assessment, and adaptation studies.

  2. A comparative analysis of international frameworks for 21st century competences: implications for national curriculum policies

    Voogt, Joke; Pareja Roblin, Natalie

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites

  3. Metropolitan Taxation in the 21st Century

    Brunori, David

    1998-01-01

    As we enter the 21st Century, local governments will face challenges to how they raise revenue. Existing local tax systems are ill equipped to meet future basic revenue needs. Moreover, economic and technological changes will inevitably and profoundly alter tax systems of all governments. The problems with existing tax systems and future economic challenges will likely lead to an environment in which local taxation will be limited to an extent unseen in American history. The limitations will ...

  4. Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitation in the 20th and 21st centuries: 1. Evaluation of late 20th century simulations from IPCC models

    Schuenemann, Keah C.; Cassano, John J.

    2009-10-01

    Using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique, the sea level pressure synoptic climatology and precipitation of 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are compared to that of the ERA-40 reanalysis for the North Atlantic region for the period 1961 to 1999. Three of the models, the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63), the MIROC3.2(hires), and the MPI-ECHAM5, best reproduce the ERA-40 synoptic climatology and are chosen for further analysis of precipitation over Greenland. The MIROC3.2(hires) is the best single performing model, in that it best matches ERA-40. Although the three-model ensemble simulates the same mean annual precipitation over Greenland as ERA-40, the ensemble simulates the mean annual precipitation differently than ERA-40. A dry bias in the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63) and a wet bias from the MPI-ECHAM5 cancel in the ensemble average. The mean annual precipitation difference between the model ensemble, as well as each individual model, and ERA-40 is then attributed to differences in intrapattern variability and pattern frequency components in the models that make up the ensemble. Pattern frequency differences between the model and ERA-40 indicate a difference in the occurrence of synoptic weather patterns, while intrapattern variability differences denote differences in the amount of precipitation produced when a given synoptic weather pattern occurs. Intrapattern variability differences between the models and ERA-40 are predominantly responsible for Greenland precipitation differences, but pattern frequency (circulation) differences in the models also play a small role. Part 2 of this paper uses this three-model ensemble to analyze and attribute predicted increases in precipitation over the Greenland ice sheet for the 21st century.

  5. Changes in precipitation intensity over East Asia during the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by a global atmospheric model with a 60 km grid size

    Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo

    2013-10-01

    We conducted three-member ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model with a high horizontal resolution of a 60 km grid size for the period 1872-2099 (228 years). Between 1872 and 2005, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST), while between 2006 and 2099, the boundary SST data were estimated using the multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 models and assuming A1B emission scenario. Annual mean precipitation (PAVE), the Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), and the maximum 5 day precipitation total (R5d) averaged over East Asia increase almost monotonically through the 21st century. The statistically significant area of precipitation intensity increase is larger for 2080-2099 than for 2046-2065. In particular, intense rainfall will increase over northern and southern China during 2080-2099. The conversion rate from water vapor to precipitation per 1°C rise in surface air temperature for SDII and R5D is much larger than that for PAVE during the 21st century. This suggests that extreme rainfall events will occur more frequently than moderate rainfall events even if the amount of temperature rise is same. Future changes in the horizontal transport of water vapor also lead to more intense precipitation over East Asia. In particular, the increase in clockwise water vapor transport due to intensification of the subtropical high contributes to increased intense precipitation over southern China.

  6. 21st Century Transformation

    Davidson, Nadene; Stone, Jody

    2009-01-01

    Education has changed, and at no time is this more evident than when working with students who are tethered to the Internet, are fully engaged in technology-based social networking, create blogs and wikis, and expect instantaneous responses as they twitter with their peers around the world. Some of the knowledge and skills that millennial students…

  7. The 21st Century Skills Movement

    Johnson, Paige

    2009-01-01

    Since 2002, the Partnership for 21st Century Skills has been the leading advocacy organization in the United States focused on infusing 21st century skills into education. Its "Framework for 21st Century Learning," the result of a consensus among hundreds of stakeholders, describes the skills, knowledge, and expertise students need to succeed in…

  8. Scenarios of biodiversity loss in southern Africa in the 21st century

    Biggs, R.H.; Simons, H.; Bakkenes, M.; Scholes, R.J.; Eickhout, B.; Vuuren, van D.; Alkemade, R.

    2008-01-01

    The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in s

  9. Continentality in Europe according to various resolution regional climate models with A1B scenario in the 21st century

    Szabó-Takács, Beáta; Farda, Aleš; Zahradníček, Pavel; Štěpánek, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 119, č. 4 (2015), s. 515-535. ISSN 0324-6329 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : continentality * Gorczynsky index * Conrad index * ENSEMBLES * climate change * E-OBS Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.500, year: 2014

  10. Productivity changes in the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century in response to changes in the regional atmospheric forcing

    Diego M Macias

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean Sea is considered as a hotspot for climate change because of its location in the temperate region and because it is a semi-enclosed basin surrounded by highly populated and developed countries. Some expected changes include an increase in air temperature and changes in the periodicity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Alongside, demographic and politics changes will alter freshwater quantity and quality. All these changes will have an impact on the ecological status of marine ecosystems in the basin. We use a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled model of the entire Mediterranean Sea to explore potential changes in primary productivity (mean values and spatial distribution under two emission scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.To isolate the effects of changes in atmospheric conditions alone, in this ensemble of simulations rivers conditions (water flow and nutrient concentrations are kept unchanged and equal to its climatological values for the last 10 years. Despite the significant warming trend, the mean integrated primary production rate in the entire basin remains almost unchanged. However characteristic spatial differences are consistently found in the different simulations. The western basin becomes more oligotrophic associated to a surface density decrease (increase stratification because of the influence of the Atlantic waters which prevents surface salinity to increase. In the eastern basin, on the contrary, all model runs simulates an increase in surface production linked to a density increase (less stratification because of the increasing evaporation rate. The simulations presented here demonstrate the basic response patterns of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem to changing climatological conditions. Although unlikely, they could be considered as a ‘baseline’ of expected consequences of climatic changes on marine conditions in the Mediterranean.

  11. The future in our hands. 21 climate policy statements for the 21st century; Die Zukunft in unseren Haenden. 21 Thesen zur Klimaschutzpolitik des 21. Jahrhunderts und ihre Begruendungen

    Weiss, Martin; Erdmenger, Christoph; Strohschein, Jan (and others)

    2005-10-15

    The German climate policy for the 21st century is concerned with the following topics: the climate change and its consequences in Germany, future climate changes and the consequences; limitation of the temperature increase and required activity goals, - required long-term and global emission reductions; adaptation to the climate change consequences, global emission trends; reduction of the global emissions, including USA, emerging and developing countries; proposal of the Federal Environment Agency: four-step-convergence; costs of climate protection versus costs of non-action; further positive effects of climate protection, struggle against poverty, and promotion of renewable energies; anchoring the climate protection in other policy areas; status of the Kyoto protocol implementation in Germany; reduction of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050; consequent climate protection and ecological finance reform; emissions trading; reduction of energy consumption; renewal of the power plant mix; contribution of renewable energy sources to the electricity supply; reduction of the traffic induced carbon dioxide emission; contribution of agriculture to climate protection; guiding ideas of climate protecting behavior.

  12. Managing Reliability in the 21st Century

    Dellin, T.A.

    1998-11-23

    The rapid pace of change at Ike end of the 20th Century should continue unabated well into the 21st Century. The driver will be the marketplace imperative of "faster, better, cheaper." This imperative has already stimulated a revolution-in-engineering in design and manufacturing. In contrast, to date, reliability engineering has not undergone a similar level of change. It is critical that we implement a corresponding revolution-in-reliability-engineering as we enter the new millennium. If we are still using 20th Century reliability approaches in the 21st Century, then reliability issues will be the limiting factor in faster, better, and cheaper. At the heart of this reliability revolution will be a science-based approach to reliability engineering. Science-based reliability will enable building-in reliability, application-specific products, virtual qualification, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on the future of reliability engineering. We will try to gaze into the crystal ball and predict some key issues that will drive reliability programs in the new millennium. In the 21st Century, we will demand more of our reliability programs. We will need the ability to make accurate reliability predictions that will enable optimizing cost, performance and time-to-market to meet the needs of every market segment. We will require that all of these new capabilities be in place prior to the stint of a product development cycle. The management of reliability programs will be driven by quantifiable metrics of value added to the organization business objectives.

  13. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  14. Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing

    Trapp, Robert J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Brooks, Harold E.; Baldwin, Michael E.; Robinson, Eric D.; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2007-01-01

    Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteoro...

  15. Changes in the annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the British Isles within the 21st century

    We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the British Isles in the periods 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, relative to present day climate. Twelve combinations of regional and global climate models forced with the A1B scenario are used. The annual cycle is modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with sinusoidal models for location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution. Although the peak times of the annual cycle vary considerably between projections for the 2061–2100 period, a robust shift towards later peak times is found for the south-east, while in the north-west there is evidence for a shift towards earlier peak times. In the remaining parts of the British Isles no changes in the peak times are projected. For 2021–2060 this signal is weak. The annual cycle’s relative amplitude shows no robust signal, where differences in projected changes are dominated by global climate model differences. The relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability to changes in the relative amplitude cannot be identified with the available ensemble. The results might be relevant for the development of adequate risk-reduction strategies, for insurance companies and for the management and planning of water resources. (letter)

  16. Nuclear power in the 21st century

    Full text: All plausible long term energy scenarios project significant growth of global energy, especially if the Millennium Declaration on poverty eradication and the Plan of Implementation agreed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) are to be met. Projected growth is the fastest in developing countries. While growth for affordable energy services is not subject to debate really - the question is rather by how much - this is not the case for energy supply. 21st century energy supply systems face several challenges and uncertainties including energy resource availability, technology change, environmental compliance, reliability and security, political and social acceptance. One of the uncertainties concerns the role of nuclear power in 21st century energy supplies. Paradoxically, its near term role appears less certain that its longer term role. In the short-run, i.e., until 2020, most studies project either a slight increase, a slight decrease or no change at all. Though regional differences exist in terms of growth and decline, the effectively balance each other. Longer-term energy demand and supply studies, however, paint a different future. Analyses developed by international working groups generally project a potentially significant increase in the use of nuclear power. There are several reasons for this. Foremost, longer-term studies are not subjected to short-term policy constraints. Next, they do factor anticipated technology change and innovation into the analysis. Then resource depletion effects become more visible and environmental constraints become more stringent. The starting point of this paper is the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families, this paper discusses the compatibility requirements of each for nuclear energy in terms of economics, environment, supply security, resources, waste

  17. Countering 21st Century Threats

    Scharling Pedersen, Peter; Pillai, Chad M.; Hun, Lee Jae

    2015-01-01

    The United States and its Allies confront an increasingly volatile world where threats range from traditional state-on-state challenges to non-state transnational networks. To successfully combat these 21st Century problems, in an era of resource and geo-political power constraints, the U.S. and......), Counter-Terrorism (CT), and Security and Stability Operations (SSO). • Establishing a construct that allows a strategic Whole-of-Government capacity for operations coordinated by joint interagency task forces. • Continue to developing the Global SOF network. • Increased intelligence sharing in areas of...... shared interests pre-crisis. • Establish political agreements and/or intentions with partners to address potential threats. • Establishing mutual trust through Building Partnership Capacity with capable SOF and intelligence organizations....

  18. Modelling soil erosion risk and its impacts in the mediterranean area for the 21st century

    Le Bissonnais, Yves; Cerdan, Olivier; Cheviron, Bruno; Darboux, Frédéric; Desprats, Jean-François; Fouché, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Soil degradation and erosion will be influenced during the 21st century both by climate and related or anthropogenic land use changes. Many current negative impacts of soil erosion may thus be amplified, and as certain soil thresholds are exceeded, potentially new and different problems could arise. Soils in the Mediterranean environment may be particularly vulnerable to such global changes because of contrasted climate, low vegetation cover and specific poor soil characteristics. It is there...

  19. China's water sustainability in the 21st century: a climate informed water risk assessment covering multi-sector water demands

    X. Chen

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available China is facing a water resources crisis with growing concerns as to the reliable supply of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic needs. High inter-annual rainfall variability and increasing consumptive use across the country exacerbates the situation further and is a constraint on future development. For water sustainability, it is necessary to examine the differences in water demand and supply and their spatio-temporal distribution in order to quantify the dimensions of the water risk. Here, a detailed quantitative assessment of water risk as measured by the distribution of cumulated deficits for China is presented. Considering daily precipitation and temperature variability over fifty years and the current water demands, risk measures are developed to inform county level water deficits that account for both within year and across year variations in climate. We choose political rather than watershed boundaries since economic activity and water use are organized by county and the political process is best informed through that unit. The risk measures highlight North China Plain counties as highly water stressed. Regions with high water stress are typically the regions with high inter-annual variability in rainfall and now have depleted groundwater aquifers. The stress components due to agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands are illustrated separately to assess the vulnerability of particular sectors within the country to provide a basis for targeted policy analysis for reducing water stress.

  20. 21st Century Skills Map: Science

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2008

    2008-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of Science.

  1. 21st Century Skills Map: Geography

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2009

    2009-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of Geography.

  2. 21st Century Skills Map: The Arts

    Dean, Colleen; Ebert, Christie M. Lynch; McGreevy-Nichols, Susan; Quinn, Betsy; Sabol, F. Robert; Schmid, Dale; Shauck, R. Barry; Shuler, Scott C.

    2010-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of the Arts.

  3. 21st Century Skills Map: Social Studies

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2007

    2007-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of Social Studies.

  4. Pedagogical Implementation of 21st Century Skills

    Jacobson-Lundeberg, Vera

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines students' perceptions of how intentionally taught 21st century skills have transformed their lives. Personal development education (PDE) encompasses interpersonal and interaction skills that are required for students to function and succeed in global-oriented 21st century colleges and careers. The Common Core State Standards…

  5. 21st Century Skills Map: World Languages

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2011

    2011-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of World Languages. [Funding for this paper was provided by EF Education.

  6. 21st Century Skills Map: English

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2008

    2008-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of English.

  7. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high concentration pathway 21st century scenario

    Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

    2014-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America,...

  8. Comparative endocrinology in the 21st century

    Denver, R.J.; Hopkins, P.M.; McCormick, S.D.; Propper, C.R.; Riddiford, L.; Sower, S.A.; Wingfield, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    responses to the environment. A major challenge for life scientists in the 21st century is to understand how a changing environment impacts all life on earth. A full understanding of the capabilities of organisms to respond to environmental variation, and the resilience of organisms challenged by environmental changes and extremes, is necessary for understanding the impact of pollution and climatic change on the viability of populations. Comparative endocrinologists have a key role to play in these efforts.

  9. Variations of temperature and hydrologic regimes of the region of Ladoga Lake catchment basin in the 20th and 21st centuries according to data of modern climate models

    Rumyantsev, V. A.; Efimova, L. K.; Golitsyn, G. S.; Khon, V. Ch.

    2010-02-01

    In the region of the Ladoga Lake catchment basin, we perform data analysis on a set of different modern climate models with different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios in the 20th and 21st centuries; this set includes global models such as ECHAM4/OPYC3 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany), HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, England), and RCAO (Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean) models. Two variants of the boundary conditions for these climate models (Rossby Center of Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI) are used. We present the results of a diagnosis of the model-predicted near-surface temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and water budget (P-E) in the Ladoga Lake catchment based on their comparison with empirical data in twentieth century. We obtain scenario estimates of the variations of temperature and hydrologic regimes of Ladoga Lake catchment when IPCC IS92a, A2, and B2 scenarios are fulfilled, describing the prognostic growth of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol to the atmosphere, and discuss the recommendations for their use.

  10. Faculty-Librarian Partnerships to Teach Information Skills for the 21st Century.

    Rader, Hannelore B.

    2001-01-01

    It is most important that students in higher education receive adequate education for productive work and scholarship in the technological information environment of the 21st century. Changes in the workforce, a knowledge-based economy, virtual environments, life-long learning and related factors are changing the climate within higher education around the world. Students must be prepared throughout their tenure in higher education to become productive employees and life long learners. One ver...

  11. Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

    J. Martinez-Rey; L. Bopp; M. Gehlen; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

    2014-01-01

    The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with outp...

  12. Effective Leadership in the 21st Century.

    Jones, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    Leaders know how to achieve goals and inspire people along the way. While the terms and definitions may change with the times, it is important to understand the skills and abilities needed to lead in the 21st century. Most effective leaders have one element in common, and that is they are able to keep their teams engaged. If team members are not engaged, they may very well leave the organization. With four generations in the workplace, leaders must adapt and modify their leadership style in order to maintain employee engagement. The ability to lead effectively is based on a number of skills, including communication, motivation, vision, modeling, demonstrating empathy, confidence, persistence, and integrity. PMID:26710571

  13. A Case Study of Liberal Arts Colleges in the 21st Century: Understanding Organizational Change and Evolution in Higher Education

    Baker, Vicki L.; Baldwin, Roger G.

    2015-01-01

    We draw upon the evolutionary model of change in order to examine the organizational transformation of three liberal arts colleges (Albion College, Allegheny College, Kenyon College). Relying on our prior research (Baker, Baldwin, & Makker, 2012), we seek to continue our exploration and understanding of the evolution occurring in the important…

  14. Nuclear Power in the 21st Century

    The International Atomic Energy Agency helps its Member States to use nuclear technology for a broad range of peaceful purposes, one of the most important of which is generating electricity. The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan in March 2011 caused anxiety about nuclear safety throughout the world and raised questions about the future of nuclear power. Two years on, it is clear that the use of nuclear power will continue to grow in the coming decades, although growth will be slower than was anticipated before the accident. Many countries with existing nuclear power programmes plan to expand them. Many new countries, both developed and developing, plan to introduce nuclear power. The factors contributing to this growing interest include increasing global demand for energy, as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices, and security of energy supply. It will be difficult for the world to achieve the twin goals of ensuring sustainable energy supplies and curbing greenhouse gases without nuclear power. The IAEA helps countries that opt for nuclear power to use it safely and securely. Countries that have decided to phase out nuclear power will have to deal with issues such as plant decommissioning, remediation, and waste management for decades to come. The IAEA also assists in these areas. I am grateful to the Russian Federation for hosting the 2013 International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century in St Petersburg in June. This timely conference provides a valuable opportunity to take stock of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. A high level of public confidence in the safety of nuclear power is essential for the future of the sector. Much valuable work has been done in the past two years to improve safety. But much remains to be done. It is vitally important that the momentum is maintained and that everything is done to ensure that nuclear power is as safe as humanly

  15. Changes of Russian Policy on Security in Central Asia at the turn of the 21st century

    Камынин, Владимир Дмитриевич

    2013-01-01

    The author explores the reasons for change in Russia’s security policy in Central Asia by analyzing leading experts’ opinions. The author argues that this reconsideration of policy was determined by both national and international factors and resulted in growing influence of Russia in the region. The author concludes that fight against international terrorism is now at the center of Russian activities in Central Asia.Key words: Russia, Central Asia, regional security, international terrorism

  16. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise

    Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.; Grinstead, A.

    2010-01-01

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO2 aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea evel responds mainly at ce...

  17. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    M. Steinacher; F. Joos; T. L. Frölicher; Bopp, L.; Cadule, P.; Doney, S. C.; Gehlen, M.; Schneider, B.; Segschneider, J.

    2009-01-01

    Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes ...

  18. Sustainable Corporate Social Responsibility - An Alternative for a Paradigm Change of Business in the 21St Century

    Hrdinová, Gabriela; Sakál, Peter

    2012-12-01

    The critical system analysis of the current status of all areas of human activity on the planet Earth (in Europe and the Slovak Republic) convinces us, that this development is unsustainable. Many prominent personalities of scientific, cultural, social and political life stated that our planet Earth and mankind with it, and all that man has created during its existence is only one step finds itself on the brink of disaster and it will turn against man. Many theoretical concepts, based on the historical development and experience notes that this status is natural and inevitable. However, we hold a different opinion. If the man is team, that is declared, it must show (now at the turning point) themselves and future generations, that it thinks with its existence on planet Earth seriously and responsibly. Given by the current global crisis and also our belief that the fundamental problem of humanity is unfair creation and distribution of wealth on planet Earth, we maintain opinion for changing the paradigm of thinking in this area. As the only alternative for solving this problem we see in the application of the concept of sustainable corporate social responsibility. The article presents our idea.

  19. A 21st-Century Humanities for the Community College

    Alford, Barry; Elden, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    This essay examines not only the role the humanities play in the community college curriculum but also how our approach to and understanding of the humanities must change. The defense of a 21st-century humanities has to begin in the experience of our students and not in the traditional canons of our disciplines.

  20. The Challenge of Ethical Liberalism to Jewish Education in the 21st Century

    Alexander, Hanan

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the author's response to "Reinventing Jewish Education for the 21st Century" by Jonathan Woocher. The author agrees with Jonathan Woocher that American Jewish education in the 21st century requires change no less comprehensive than that initiated by Samson Benderly and his students around a century ago, and that this should…

  1. 21st Century Water Conservation Principles

    Narayanan, M.

    2013-12-01

    This is an encore presentation of what was presented at the 2012 AGU International Conference. It was entitled: 'The Importance of Water Conservation in the 21st Century.' The poster presentation, however, has been redesigned and reorganized with new, revised perspectives. The importance of water conservation principles has been emphasized. The population of United States has more than doubled over the past 50 years. The need for water however, has tripled. The EPA estimates that more than 36 states face water shortage during the forthcoming years. The EPA has prepared a plan for achieving environmental and energy performance. This will be coupled with leadership and accountability. Carbon neutrality is also of prime importance. The objective is to focus on six important, essential areas. 1. Efficient use of already available energy resources. 2. Intelligent water consumption and focusing on water conservation. 3. Expand the use of renewable energy resources. 4. Explore innovative transportation systems and methodologies. 5. Change building codes and promote high performance sustainable buildings. 6. Focus on developing creative environment management systems. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide occur naturally in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is also emitted to the atmosphere through a variety of natural processes and also some human activities. However, fluorinated gases are emitted to the atmosphere solely through human activities, because they are created by humans. It is very important to observe that water conservation is probably the most cost-effective way to reduce our demand for water. Furthermore, it is certainly environmentally justifiable. The Environmental Protection Agency has a plan called E2PLAN. It is EPA's plan for achieving energy and environmental performance, leadership, accountability, and carbon neutrality. In June 2011, the EPA published a comprehensive, multi-year planning document called Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan. The

  2. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  3. Energy in the 21st century

    Fanchi, John R

    2010-01-01

    Energy may be the most important factor that will influence the shape of society in the 21st century. The cost and availability of energy significantly impacts our quality of life, the health of national economies, the relationships between nations, and the stability of our environment. What kind of energy do we want to use in our future? Will there be enough? What will be the consequences of our decisions? Everyone has a stake in the answers to these questions and the decisions that are being made to provide energy. ""Energy in the 21st Century"", in its second edition, examines the energy so

  4. Nursing theory: the 21st century.

    Randell, B P

    1992-01-01

    On September 21, 1990, at the University of California, Los Angeles, Neuropsychiatric Institute and Hospital, six nurse theorists participated in a panel discussion on theory development for the 21st century. The theorists included Dorothy Johnson, Betty Neuman, Dorothea E. Orem, Rosemarie Rizzo Parse, Martha E. Rogers and Callista Roy. The panel provided the participants the opportunity to speculate on the course for future development of nursing knowledge. Three questions were posed to the panel relating to the development of their models, the direction nursing theory will take in the 21st century, and current research emerging from the extant theories. The panel also addressed questions from the audience. PMID:1454278

  5. Energy in the 21st century

    Fanchi, John R

    2013-01-01

    Many events that affect global energy production and consumption have occurred since the second edition of Energy in the 21st Century appeared in 2011. For example, an earthquake and tsunami in Japan led to the disruption of the Fukushima nuclear facility and a global re-examination of the safety of the nuclear industry. Oil and natural gas prices continue to be volatile, and the demand for energy has been affected by the global economy. The third edition updates data and the discussion of recent events.Energy in the 21st Century has been used as the text for an introductory energy course for

  6. Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

    J. G. Anet; E. V. Rozanov; Muthers, Stefan; Peter, T; Brönnimann, Stefan; Arfeuille, Florian Xavier; Beer, J.; Shapiro, A. I.; Raible, Christoph; F. Steinhilber; Schmutz, W. K.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of...

  7. Preparing for the 21st century. Planning with focus groups.

    Morris, R I

    1996-01-01

    The job market for nursing graduates is changing, and nursing schools must respond to the changes. The author describes the process of using focus groups to facilitate a constructive dialogue between nurse administrators, clinicians, educators, and students. The groups focused on adapting the curriculum to changing market conditions. Recommendations and outcomes are highlighted. Nursing educators are encouraged to critically examine their own programs in preparation for the 21st century. PMID:9069929

  8. Understanding climate variability and change in the Altiplano

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation addresses climate variability in the climate change models for 20th and 21st centuries for the Altiplano Region. The models appear to simulate this mechanism in the present, but respond quite differently in 21st century climate. This poses a question: Is this related to LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  9. Lexicography in the 21st Century

    This is a state-of-the-art volume on lexicography at the beginning of the 21st century. It also offers proposals for future theoretical and practical work. The contributions, inspired by the ground-breaking work of Henning Bergenholtz, address topics such as dictionary functions; dictionary users...

  10. 21st Century Learning Environment Models

    State Educational Technology Directors Association, 2011

    2011-01-01

    This report provides short descriptions of systemic approaches for American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding including: (1) 21st Century Classroom; (2) Comprehensive Professional Development; (3) Statewide Longitudinal Data Systems; (4) Formative Assessment; (5) Digital Content; (6) Virtual Learning; and (7) Learning Management Systems.

  11. Lifelong Learning for the 21st Century.

    Goodnight, Ron

    The Lifelong Learning Center for the 21st Century was proposed to provide personal renewal and technical training for employees at a major United States automotive manufacturing company when it implemented a new, computer-based Computer Numerical Controlled (CNC) machining, robotics, and high technology facility. The employees needed training for…

  12. Quantifying the role of Northern Eurasia in global CO2, CH4, and water dynamics during the 21st Century

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Kicklighter, David; Cai, Yongxia; Tchebakova, Nadja; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John; Sokolov, Andrei; Sirin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover and biogeochemical cycles in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops due to increasing population and associated economic development, the climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia also significantly affect global land use and result in a global cumulative carbon sink of about 63 Pg C under the policy scenario that limits CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century. In comparison with the policy scenario, under a no-policy scenario where CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century, the global cumulative carbon sink is 11 Pg C less mainly due to carbon lost from global grasslands. Cumulative evapotranspiration from global terrestrial ecosystems considering global land-use changes with vegetation shifts in northern Eurasia is 8.05 and 8.35 million km3 for the policy and no-policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on CH4 emissions from northern Eurasia in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this

  13. How 21st century droughts affect food and environmental security

    Kogan, Felix

    The first 13th years of the 21st century has begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2-6% and 7-16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This presentation is a travelogue of the 21st century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the NOAA operational space technology, called Vegetation Health (VH), which has the longest period of observation and provide good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI) and thermal conditions. The 21st century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia Argentina, Brazil, China, India and other principal grain producing countries were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food and environmental security and led to food riots in some countries. This presentation investigate how droughts affect food and environmental security, if they can be detected earlier, how to monitor their area, intensity, duration and impacts and also their dynamics during the climate warming era with satellite-based vegetation health technology.

  14. Evolution of the framework for 21st century competencies

    Sdenka Z. Salas-Pilco

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the successive changes and evolution of the frameworks for 21st century competencies, since the appearance of the first conceptual models during the final years of the last century, and also it is a review of the competencies that are needed in the 21st century with a special focus on the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT competencies. The included frameworks have been elaborated by diverse institutions such as international organizations, private consortia and also governments as a guideline for educational policies in elementary and secondary schools. Later, the frameworks are compared and analyzed according to a classification of the competencies into general categories, in order to visualize some trends and obtain some insights about the direction they are heading. Finally, it provides some suggestions for the conception of future frameworks.

  15. Modeling the evolution of the world ocean ice cover in the 20th and 21st centuries

    Kattsov, V. M.; Alekseev, G. V.; Pavlova, T. V.; Sporyshev, P. V.; Bekryaev, R. V.; Govorkova, V. A.

    2007-04-01

    The current state of the simulation of sea ice cover as a component of new-generation global climate models is considered. Results from the model ensemble simulation of the observed world ocean ice cover, including its evolution in the 20th century, are analyzed, and projection of possible changes in the 21st century for three scenarios of anthropogenic forcing of the climate system are described. Unresolved problems and priorities for sea ice modeling are discussed.

  16. Potential Damage to Modern Building Materials from 21st Century Air Pollution

    Peter Brimblecombe; Grossi, Carlota M.

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of damage to building materials has been estimated for the 21st century, with a particular focus on aluminum, zinc, copper, plastic, paint, and rubber in urban areas. We set idealized air pollution and climates to represent London and Prague across the period 1950–2100. Environmental parameters were used to estimate future recession, corrosion, and loss of properties through published damage or dose-response functions. The 21st century seems to provide a less aggressive environm...

  17. 21st century's energy: hydrogen energy system

    Fossil fuels (i.e., petroleum, natural gas and coal), which meet most of the world's energy demand today, are being depleted fast. Also, their combustion products are causing the global problems, such as the greenhouse effect, ozone layer depletion, acid rains and pollution, which are posing great danger for our environment and eventually for the life in our planet. Many engineers and scientists agree that the solution to these global problems would be to replace the existing fossil fuel system by the Hydrogen Energy System. Hydrogen is a very efficient and clean fuel. Its combustion will produce no greenhouse gases, no ozone layer depleting chemicals, little or no acid rain ingredients and pollution. Hydrogen, produced from renewable energy (e.g., solar) sources, would result in a permanent energy system, which we would never have to change. However, there are other energy systems proposed for the post-petroleum era, such as a synthetic fossil fuel system. In this system, synthetic gasoline and synthetic natural gas will be produced using abundant deposits of coal. In a way, this will ensure the continuation of the present fossil fuel system. The two possible energy systems for the post-fossil fuel era (i.e., the solar hydrogen energy system and the synthetic fossil fuel system) are compared with the present fossil fuel system by taking into consideration production costs, environmental damages and utilization efficiencies. The results indicate that the solar hydrogen energy system is the best energy system to ascertain a sustainable future, and it should replace the fossil fuel system before the end of the 21st Century

  18. Early 21st century processors

    Vajapeyam, Sriram; Valero, Mateo

    2001-01-01

    The excitement and challenges of computer design lie in meeting multiple design goals and constraints while riding the dual horses of fast-improving technology and changing application domains. The target market, available technology, and target applications impose the design goals and constraints.

  19. Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model

    J. Martinez-Rey; L. Bopp; M. Gehlen; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

    2015-01-01

    The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ prima...

  20. Life Sciences in the 21 st Century

    Zou Chenglu (C. L. Tsou)

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a retrospective of the achievements of life sciences in the 20th century and a prospective in the 21 st century.primarily,because of the emergence of molecular biology in the 20th cetury,life sciences have grown up from a descriptive discipline to an exact science.Biology in the 21st century features a unification between analysis and integration,i.e.the unification of analysis and func-tional research.More and more interdisciplinary integration will be based on works of penetrating analyses.Secondly.the deeper understanding of all living phenomena will lead to a unified connition of the essence of life so that general biology in the genuine sese of the term will come into being.finally,basic research on the life sciences will produce an unprecedented influence on all aspects of human life.

  1. Detergents of the 21st century

    Ho Tan Tai Louis

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Detergents of the 21st century will depend on evolutions in household appliances, in substrates and in consumer needs. In addition, the environmental constraints, which become more and more stringent, will also play an important role, particularly in the formulations. Surfactants, which constitute one of the main raw materials in detergents, will have to be more environmentally friendly with increasing criteria of biodegradability and renewable materials. Builders (phosphates or zeolithes, heavy metal complexants (EDTA and bleaching agents (combination perborate/TAED are also expected to be replaced by biodegradable compounds, with better performances and lower costs. The real raw materials of the detergents of the 21st century will probably be enzymes (oxidase, hydrolase, peroxidase which present several advantages. At the same time, efforts will be made on biodegradable packaging through the use of micro-organisms able to degrade polymers. Finally, in terms of product forms, the concept of concentration might come back through the use of tablets.

  2. 21st Century South African Science Fiction

    CARAIVAN LUIZA

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyses some aspects of South African science fiction, starting with its beginnings in the 1920s and focusing on some 21st century writings. Thus Lauren Beukes’ novels Moxyland (2008) and Zoo City (2010) are taken into consideration in order to present new trends in South African literature and the way science fiction has been marked by Apartheid. The second South African science fiction writer whose writings are examined is Henrietta Rose-Innes (with her novel Nineveh, published i...

  3. Cooperative learning in 21st century

    Johnson, David W.; JOHNSON, Roger T.

    2014-01-01

    The 21st century brings four important challenges in which cooperation plays a central role: (1) a rapidly increasing global interdependence that will result in increasing local diversity as well as more frequent and intense conflicts, (2) the increasing number of democracies throughout the world, (3) the need for creative entrepreneurs, and (4) the growing importance of interpersonal relationships that affect the development of personal identity. The tools for meeting these challenges includ...

  4. The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

    Sakmar, Susan

    2010-09-15

    As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

  5. Industrialization and Development Strategies in the 21st Century: Towards Sustainable Innovation Systems

    Khan, Haider

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to explore the possibilities of industrialization and development in the 21st century. With an ongoing global financial and economic crisis with only a tepid recovery at the time of this writing(August 2013) as well as the still unfolding ecological crisis, the 21st century presents an even greater challenge for industrialization in the developing world than the post-WWII period. The changed global economic and ecological environment will shape the emergence ...

  6. Estimating Total Solar Irradiance during the 21st century

    Herrera, Victor Manuel Velasco; Mendoza, Blanca; Herrera, Graciela Velasco

    2011-01-01

    The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine. We found that the next secular solar minimum will occur between the years 2003 and 2063 with an average of 1365.4W/m2 close to the Dalton or Modern minima. We calculate the radiative forcing between the modern maximum and the 21st century minimum to be...

  7. Estimating Total Solar Irradiance during the 21st century

    Herrera, Victor Manuel Velasco; Herrera, Graciela Velasco

    2011-01-01

    The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine. We found that the next secular solar minimum will occur between the years 2003 and 2063 with an average of 1365.4W/m2 close to the Dalton or Modern minima. We calculate the radiative forcing between the modern maximum and the 21st century minimum to be -0.1W/m2.

  8. Health Physics in the 21st Century

    Bevelacqua, Joseph John

    2008-01-01

    Adopting a proactive approach and focusing on emerging radiation-generating technologies, Health Physics in the 21st Century meets the growing need for a presentation of the relevant radiological characteristics and hazards. As such, this monograph discusses those technologies that will affect the health physics and radiation protection profession over the decades to come. After an introductory overview, the second part of this book looks at fission and fusion energy, followed by a section devoted to accelerators, while the final main section deals with radiation on manned space missions.

  9. 21st Century South African Science Fiction

    CARAIVAN LUIZA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses some aspects of South African science fiction, starting with its beginnings in the 1920s and focusing on some 21st century writings. Thus Lauren Beukes’ novels Moxyland (2008 and Zoo City (2010 are taken into consideration in order to present new trends in South African literature and the way science fiction has been marked by Apartheid. The second South African science fiction writer whose writings are examined is Henrietta Rose-Innes (with her novel Nineveh, published in 2011 as this consolidates women's presence in the SF world.

  10. The BPM4ED project: Designing 21st century schools

    Domenico Lembo; Massimo Mecella; Mario Vacca

    2013-01-01

    The ways of schooling and teaching is quickly changing for the continuous evolution of the surrounding world: new forms of education are required; in fact, on the one side the birth of the smart cities and the smart community ask for active citizens interacting with institutions and on the other side the enormous potentiality of ICT is modifying both the learning environments and the training models. The so called “21st century schools”, differ from the current ones in almost all the aspects:...

  11. After the book information services for the 21st century

    Stachokas, George

    2014-01-01

    Libraries and librarians have been defined by the book throughout modern history. What happens when society increasingly lets print go in favour of storing, retrieving and manipulating electronic information? What happens after the book? After the Book explores how the academic library of the 21st Century is first and foremost a provider of electronic information services. Contemporary users expect today's library to provide information as quickly and efficiently as other online information resources. The book argues that librarians need to change what they know, how they work, and how they ar

  12. Federal laboratories for the 21st century

    Gover, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huray, P.G. [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)

    1998-04-01

    Federal laboratories have successfully filled many roles for the public; however, as the 21st Century nears it is time to rethink and reevaluate how Federal laboratories can better support the public and identify new roles for this class of publicly-owned institutions. The productivity of the Federal laboratory system can be increased by making use of public outcome metrics, by benchmarking laboratories, by deploying innovative new governance models, by partnerships of Federal laboratories with universities and companies, and by accelerating the transition of federal laboratories and the agencies that own them into learning organizations. The authors must learn how government-owned laboratories in other countries serve their public. Taiwan`s government laboratory, Industrial Technology Research Institute, has been particularly successful in promoting economic growth. It is time to stop operating Federal laboratories as monopoly institutions; therefore, competition between Federal laboratories must be promoted. Additionally, Federal laboratories capable of addressing emerging 21st century public problems must be identified and given the challenge of serving the public in innovative new ways. Increased investment in case studies of particular programs at Federal laboratories and research on the public utility of a system of Federal laboratories could lead to increased productivity of laboratories. Elimination of risk-averse Federal laboratory and agency bureaucracies would also have dramatic impact on the productivity of the Federal laboratory system. Appropriately used, the US Federal laboratory system offers the US an innovative advantage over other nations.

  13. Learning 21st-Century Skills Requires, 21st-Century Teaching

    Saavedra, Anna Rosefsky; Opfer, V. Darleen

    2012-01-01

    For students to learn 21st-century skills, we will have to teach them differently than we have in the past. The outdated, transmission model, through which teachers transmit factual knowledge to students via lectures and textbooks, remains the dominant approach to compulsory education in much of the world, yet it is not the most effective way to…

  14. Stratospheric Ozone Predictions For The Late 21st Century

    Douglass, A. R.; Olsen, M. A.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L.

    2013-12-01

    Simulations of ozone evolution from 1960 until ~2100 from chemistry climate models (CCMs) that participated in CCMVal-2 are broadly consistent in that stratospheric ozone increases as chlorofluorcarbons decrease and the stratosphere cools (which affects the rate of temperature dependent loss processes), however, details of the projections vary significantly. Differences in the ozone response to specified changes in chlorine containing source gases dominate during the first half of the integrations. For example, from 1980 to 2000, chlorine change is by far the most important cause of ozone change, and the CCMs produce changes in the 60S-60N average column ozone that range between -3 DU and -17 DU. In the second half of the 21st century climate change is primarily responsible for ozone change. By 2080 the CCMs produce changes in the 60S-60N average upper stratospheric ozone column that range from 4 DU to 10 DU. The CCM range of differences is due to differences in both composition and upper stratospheric temperature. Ozone loss processes each have their own temperature sensitivity, and the net sensitivity of ozone to temperature change in each CCM depends on the relative importance of each loss process; this depends on the composition and temperature for the baseline atmosphere. In the lower stratosphere, climate change affects ozone evolution through changes in photochemical reaction rates due to stratospheric cooling and through circulation differences affecting transport of ozone and other trace gases. These are not separable using an approach such as multiple linear regression because changes in circulation and temperature have the same time dependence after accounting for contributions due to chlorine change. Recent attention has focused on similarity of the CCMs in that all predict a speed-up of the Brewer Dobson circulation. However, differences in the magnitude of the speed-up, differences in horizontal mixing and differences in the photochemical response to

  15. Projected Risk of Flooding Disaster over China in 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Models

    Li, Rouke; Xu, Ying

    2016-04-01

    Based on the simulations from CMIP5 models, using climate indices which have high correlation with historical disaster data, and in combination with terrain elevation data and the socio-economic data, to project the flooding disaster risk, the vulnerability of flooding hazard affected body and the risk of flooding hazard respectively during the near term(2015-2039), medium term(2045-2069) and long term(2075-2099) under RCP8.5. According to the IPCC AR5 WGII, we used risk evaluation model of disaster: R=E*H*V. R on behalf of disaster risk index. H, E and V express risk, exposure and vulnerability respectively. The results show that the extreme flooding disaster risk will gradually increase during different terms in the future, and regions with high risk level of flooding hazard are might mainly located in southeastern and eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the high risk of flooding disaster in future might mainly appear in eastern part of Sichuan, most of North China, and major of East China. Compared with the baseline period,21st century forward, although the occurrence of floods area changes little, the regional strong risk will increase during the end of the 21st century. Due to the coarse resolution of climate models and the methodology for determining weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of the flooding disaster risk.

  16. 21st Century jobs initiative - building the foundations for a 21st Century economy. Final main report

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    The 21st Century Jobs Initiative has been launched in the context of new realities in Washington, D.C., rapid restructuring of the US economy and accelerating changes in the makeup of the East Tennessee economy driven by these and other external economic forces. Continuing downward pressure on Federal budgets for programs that support three key institutions in the region - DOE`s Oak Ridge complex, the Tennessee Valley Authority and research programs of the University of Tennessee - are especially threatening to the region. With a large part of its economy dependent on Federal spending, the area is at risk of troublesome impacts that could ripple out from the Oak Ridge and Knoxville home of these institutions throughout the entire 15-county {open_quotes}Resource Valley.{close_quotes} As these economic forces play out in the region`s economy, important questions arise. How will East Tennessee {open_quotes}earn its living{close_quotes} in the future if the Federal government role in the economy shrinks? What kind of new industries will be formed to replace those at risk due to Federal cutbacks and economic restructuring? Where will the jobs come from for the next generation of job seekers? These are among the questions driving the 21st Century Jobs Initiative, an action-oriented program designed and implemented by local leaders in response to the economic challenges facing East Tennessee. Fortunately, the region`s economy is strong today. Unemployment is at near record lows in most counties. Moreover, leaders are increasingly aware of the threats on the horizon and are already moving to action. And the impacts from the forces at work on the economy will probably come slowly, over the next decade or so. Based on economic research and input from local leaders knowledgeable about the economy, the 21st Century Jobs Initiative has set forth a strategic economic development plan for the region.

  17. Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century

    M. Ghil

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The scientific problems posed by the Earth's fluid envelope, and its atmosphere, oceans, and the land surface that interacts with them are central to major socio-economic and political concerns as we move into the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. The point of this review paper is that one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: "festina lente," as the Romans said two thousand years ago, i.e. "hurry in a measured way." The paper traces the necessary progress through the solutions to the ten problems: 1. What is the coarse-grained structure of low-frequency atmospheric variability, and what is the connection between its episodic and oscillatory description? 2. What can we predict beyond one week, for how long, and by what methods? 3. What are the respective roles of intrinsic ocean variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, and atmospheric forcing in seasonal-to-interannual variability? 4. What are the implications of the answer to the previous problem for climate prediction on this time scale? 5. How does the oceans' thermohaline circulation change on interdecadal and longer time scales, and what is the role of the atmosphere and sea ice in such changes? 6. What is the role of chemical cycles and biological changes in affecting climate on slow time scales, and how are they affected, in turn, by climate variations? 7. Does the answer to the question above give us some trigger points for climate control? 8. What can we learn about these problems from the atmospheres and oceans of other planets and their satellites? 9. Given the answer to the questions so far, what is the role of humans in modifying the climate? 10. Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? A unified framework is proposed to deal with these problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest timescale, i.e. from weeks to

  18. Radiology in the 21st century

    On the leading edge in ''high-tech'' medicine, radiology is experiencing several revolutions simultaneously that promise an exciting future. New imaging methods and digital technologies not only offer novel ways to view tissues but also provide opportunities for quantitative evaluation of function and even permit determination of metabolic status. New approaches to technology assessment are being explored that alter the ways in which equipment and procedures are introduced into clinical medicine. With the plethora of radiology services available, the radiologist must serve as a consultant in the triage of patients in radiology and the dissemination of information from radiology. For similar reasons, training in diagnostic radiology may eventually accommodate to the concept of specialization along organ-system lines. Without question, radiology is destined for an exciting period as it moves into the 21st century

  19. Digital Humanities in the 21st Century

    Brügger, Niels

    2016-01-01

    In this article it is argued that one of the major transformative factors of the humanities at the beginning of the 21st century is the shift from analogue to digital source material, and that this shift will affect the humanities in a variety of ways. But various kinds of digital material are not...... digital in the same way, which a distinction between digitized, born-digital, and reborn-digital may help us acknowledge, thereby helping us to understand how each of these types of digital material affects different phases of scholarly work in its own way. This is illustrated by a detailed comparison of...... the nature of digitized collections and web archives....

  20. Engineering in the 21st century

    Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Reasonable evolutionary trends in federal outlays for aerospace research and development predict a continuing decline in real resources (1970 dollars) until the mid eighties, and a growth thereafter to the 1970 level by 2000, still well below the 1966 peak. Employment levels will parallel this trend with no shortage of available personnel foreseen. These trends characterize a maturing industry. Shifts in outlook toward the economic use of resources, rather than minimum risk at any cost, and toward missions aligned with societal needs and broad national goals will accompany these trends. These shifts in outlook will arise in part in academia, and will, in turn, influence engineering education. By 2000, space technology will have achieved major advances in the management of information, in space transportation, in space structures, and in energy. The economics of space systems must be the primary consideration if the space program foreseen for the 21st century is to become an actuality.

  1. IAEA safeguards for the 21st century

    The publication includes the lectures held during the seminar on IAEA safeguards for the 21st century. The topics covered are as follows: the nuclear non-proliferation regime; Legal instruments related to the application of safeguards; multilateral nuclear export controls; physical protection and its role in nuclear non-proliferation; the evolution of safeguards; basis for the strengthening of safeguards; information required from states, including 'small quantities protocol'; processing and evaluation of new information for strengthened safeguards; additional physical access and new technologies for strengthened safeguards; equipping the IAEA Inspectorate with new skills; achievements to date the strengthened safeguards; complement of regional non-proliferation arrangements in international nuclear verification; promotion of transparency through Korean experience; and the future prospects of safeguards

  2. Snake oil for the 21st century.

    Bigby, M

    1998-12-01

    Dermatology has been associated with quackery for at least a century. The dictionary defines a quack as "a pretender to medical knowledge or skill; ignorantly or falsely pretending to cure." The term quack is derived from quacksalver, or one who quacks like a duck in promoting his salves. Quacksalvers hacked many potions, including snake oil, with claims that it cured everything from dermatitis to rheumatism. With the current promulgation of skin "products" and their promotion and even sale by dermatologists, and the use of treatments of no proven efficacy, this association between dermatology and quackery is set to continue well into the 21st century. The list of offending treatments includes silicone gel sheets and onion extract cream (Mederma) for keloids, alpha-hydroxy acid creams and peels, topical ascorbic acid and phytonadione, "laser resurfacing," and cimetidine for warts, to name only a few. PMID:9875187

  3. Antiparasitic DNA vaccines in 21st century.

    Wedrychowicz, Halina

    2015-06-01

    Demands for effective vaccines to control parasitic diseases of humans and livestock have been recently exacerbated by the development of resistance of most pathogenic parasites to anti-parasitic drugs. Novel genomic and proteomic technologies have provided opportunities for the discovery and improvement of DNA vaccines which are relatively easy as well as cheap to fabricate and stable at room temperatures. However, their main limitation is rather poor immunogenicity, which makes it necessary to couple the antigens with adjuvant molecules. This paper review recent advances in the development of DNA vaccines to some pathogenic protozoa and helminths. Numerous studies were conducted over the past 14 years of 21st century, employing various administration techniques, adjuvants and new immunogenic antigens to increase efficacy of DNA vaccines. Unfortunately, the results have not been rewarding. Further research is necessary using more extensive combinations of antigens; alternate delivery systems and more efficient adjuvants based on knowledge of the immunomodulatory capacities of parasitic protozoa and helminths. PMID:26203983

  4. Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century

    Oman, L. D.; Plummer, D. A.; Waugh, D. W.; Austin, J.; Scinocca, J. F.; Douglass, A. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Cugnet, D.; Dhomse, S.; Eyring, V.; Frith, S.; Hardiman, S. C.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Mancini, E.; Marchand, M.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Nakamura, T.

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

  5. Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats, throughout the 21st century

    Chust, Guillem; Caballero, Ainhoa; Marcos, Marta; Liria, Pedro; Hernández, Carlos A.; Borja, Ángel

    2010-01-01

    Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere-ocean coupled general climate models, have been extr...

  6. Training Librarians for 21st Century Repository Services: Emerging Trends

    Helen Emasealu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviewed the emerging roles of the 21st century librarians, charged with the responsibility to manage repository services across libraries in present-day information technology environment. Librarians need to be trained and empowered with requisite skills and knowledge needed for successful management of the ICT driven repository initiatives that the 21st century demands. Literature was reviewed on the roles and responsibilities of librarians, training needs and opportunities, career path and recruitment of librarians, and community support necessary for effective and efficient implementation and management of repository initiatives. This entails the ability to comprehend trends and change patterns which are essential for providing research focused and user-friendly models in open repository services that are based on thorough analytical understanding of the challenges of emerging trends. To achieve this requires the training and retraining of librarians to reposition them as information specialists in their career path. The role of the library as an integral part of its social environment is to educate the community about the existence of an open repository by building partnership with community-oriented research centres through seminars, workshops, symposium, training, and awareness programmes. The study recommends that librarians should strategize and collaborate with researchers to make open repository an essential research tool.

  7. Digital pathology: a tool for 21st century neuropathology.

    Guzman, Miguel; Judkins, Alexander R

    2009-04-01

    Digital pathology represents an electronic environment for performing pathologic analysis and managing the information associated with this activity. The technology to create and support digital pathology has largely developed over the last decade. The use of digital pathology tools is essential to adapt and lead in the rapidly changing environment of 21st century neuropathology. The utility of digital pathology has already been demonstrated by pathologists in several areas including consensus reviews, quality assurance (Q/A), tissue microarrays (TMAs), education and proficiency testing. These utilities notwithstanding, interface issues, storage and image formatting all present challenges to the integration of digital pathology into the neuropathology work environment. With continued technologic improvements, as well as the introduction of fluorescent side scanning and multispectral detection, future developments in digital pathology offer the promise of adding powerful analytic tools to the pathology work environment. The integration of digital pathology with biorepositories offers particular promise for neuropathologists engaged in tissue banking. The utilization of these tools will be essential for neuropathologists to continue as leaders in diagnostics, translational research and basic science in the 21st century. PMID:19290997

  8. Rebuilding the LMS for the 21st Century

    Demski, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Finally--12 years into the 21st century--higher ed classrooms are turning into incubators for the kind of learning environment that curriculum and instructional technology experts have advocated for years. Yet a key question remains: Can legacy learning management systems (LMSs) be dragged into the 21st century as part of this new educational…

  9. Nuclear Reactor Empowerment in The 21st Century

    Scenarios of global energy need in the 21st century are discussed. Nuclear reactors will have important roles in supplying energy need in the 21st century if its evolutionary and innovative developments are continued to achieve economical competitiveness, high safety, positive environmental impacts, and ensuring sustain ability of innovation in the future energy supply

  10. Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

    Migliavacca, Mirco

    2013-12-01

    In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.

  11. Environmental issues in the 21st century

    Environmental issues in the 21st century D.B. Chambers SENES Consultants Limited, Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada Abstract. This paper provides an overview of some of the environmental challenges facing the uranium production industry in the 21st century. For many years, the linear, non-threshold (LNT) model has been regarded as a prudent hypothesis for radiation protection purposes. This paradigm has been challenged at the same time for both underestimating and overestimating the risks from ionizing radiation. The reality is that the ability of conventional epidemiology to distinguish small risks will always be limited by statistical power at low doses. In the future, there will be increased emphasis on better understanding the effects of ionizing radiation at the cellular (and sub cellular) level. The concept of 'controllable dose' has been proposed as an alternative to the International Commission on Radiological Protection's (ICRP) current approach to dose limitation. The concept is that if the most exposed individual is protected, then society as a whole is protected. A hazard ranking scale based on comparisons to natural background levels of radiation has been proposed. Adoption of a concept such as 'controllable dose' would require a parallel re-evaluation of the concepts and application of collective dose and ALARA optimization. The protection of non-human biota is an issue of considerable interest in many countries. The science in this area is rapidly evolving, as are discussions of a more philosophical nature. For example, should the focus of environmental risk assessment be the sustainability of the population or should the focus be to limit effects on a single member of the population? The future of environmental risk assessment should be of great interest to the uranium production industry. A systematic approach to risk assessment addressing the full scope of potential hazards -- environmental, human health, engineering, financial and others -- will be

  12. Climate change and California surface hydrology

    Schwartz, Marla Ann

    2016-01-01

    Understanding 21st century changes in California surface hydrology is critical to ensuring enough freshwater resources for the state’s municipal, ecological and agricultural purposes and assessing future ecosystem health and wildfire risk. To project 21st century surface hydrology over California – a region with highly complex topography that is not well captured by global climate models (GCMs) – downscaling is necessary. This work projects future changes in surface hydrology over the Los Ang...

  13. Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr-1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around -0.009 W m-2 K-1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

  14. Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

    J. Martinez-Rey

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2 conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5, our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs, i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

  15. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  16. Neutron scattering in the 21st century

    Full text: The watchwords for neutron scattering in the 21st Century will be complementarity and computing. Despite the enormous impact that is coming in condensed matter science, chemistry and biology from synchrotron light sources, the essential complementarity between x-ray and neutron scattering is likely to be not only preserved but enhanced. This will be achieved by current and foreseen investments in new neutron sources of high intensity and by technique developments involving neutron polarisation, neutron optics and neutron detection. The complementary relationship between neutrons and x-rays - especially using isotopic and spin polarisation contrast will be illustrated along with some challenges which might well be met in the next ten to 15 years. In meeting these challenges it is inevitable that the enormous growth in power of computing systems will play a key part. Computing must be combined very intimately in the design and interpretation of scattering experiments as well as the retention and the retrieval of experimental data. International organisations such as the International Union of Crystallography will play a part in this

  17. Challenges in 21st Century Physics

    Wilson, Thomas L.

    2007-01-01

    We are truly fortunate to live in one of the great epochs of human discovery, a time when science is providing new visions and understanding about ourselves and the world in which we live. At last, we are beginning to explore the Universe itself. One particularly exciting area of advancement is high-energy physics where several existing concepts will be put to the test. A brief survey will be given of accomplishments in 20th Century physics. These include relativity and quantum physics which have produced breakthroughs in cosmology, astrophysics, and high-energy particle physics. The current situation is then assessed, combining the last 100 years of progress with new 21st Century challenges about unification and where to go next. Finally, the future is upon us. The next frontier in experimental high-energy physics, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN in Geneva, is scheduled to begin coming online this year (2007). The potential for the LHC to address several of the significant problems in physics today will be discussed, as this great accelerator examines the predictions of the Standard Model of particle physics and even cosmology. New physics and new science will surely emerge and a better vision of the world will unfold.

  18. Biofabrication: a 21st century manufacturing paradigm

    Mironov, V; Trusk, T; Markwald, R [Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States); Kasyanov, V [Riga Stradins University, Riga (Latvia); Little, S [South Carolina EPSCoR/IDeA Program, Columbia, SC (United States); Swaja, R [South Carolina Bioengineering Alliance, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States)

    2009-06-01

    Biofabrication can be defined as the production of complex living and non-living biological products from raw materials such as living cells, molecules, extracellular matrices, and biomaterials. Cell and developmental biology, biomaterials science, and mechanical engineering are the main disciplines contributing to the emergence of biofabrication technology. The industrial potential of biofabrication technology is far beyond the traditional medically oriented tissue engineering and organ printing and, in the short term, it is essential for developing potentially highly predictive human cell- and tissue-based technologies for drug discovery, drug toxicity, environmental toxicology assays, and complex in vitro models of human development and diseases. In the long term, biofabrication can also contribute to the development of novel biotechnologies for sustainable energy production in the future biofuel industry and dramatically transform traditional animal-based agriculture by inventing 'animal-free' food, leather, and fur products. Thus, the broad spectrum of potential applications and rapidly growing arsenal of biofabrication methods strongly suggests that biofabrication can become a dominant technological platform and new paradigm for 21st century manufacturing. The main objectives of this review are defining biofabrication, outlining the most essential disciplines critical for emergence of this field, analysis of the evolving arsenal of biofabrication technologies and their potential practical applications, as well as a discussion of the common challenges being faced by biofabrication technologies, and the necessary conditions for the development of a global biofabrication research community and commercially successful biofabrication industry. (topical review)

  19. Science for the 21st Century

    2004-07-01

    The Federal government plays a key role in supporting the country's science infrastructure, a national treasure, and scientific research, an investment in our future. Scientific discoveries transform the way we think about our universe and ourselves, from the vastness of space to molecular-level biology. In innovations such as drugs derived through biotechnology and new communications technologies we see constant evidence of the power of science to improve lives and address national challenges. We had not yet learned to fly at the dawn of the 20th century, and could not have imagined the amazing 20th century inventions that we now take for granted. As we move into the 21st century, we eagerly anticipate new insights, discoveries, and technologies that will inspire and enrich us for many decades to come. This report presents the critical responsibilities of our Federal science enterprise and the actions taken by the Federal research agencies, through the National Science and Technology Council, to align our programs with scientific opportunity and with national needs. The many examples show how our science enterprise has responded to the President's priorities for homeland and national security, economic growth, health research, and the environment. In addition, we show how the science agencies work together to set priorities; coordinate related research programs; leverage investments to promote discovery, translate science into national benefits, and sustain the national research enterprise; and promote excellence in math and science education and work force development.

  20. Ionizing radiation in 21st century

    The paper begins with the author's personal experience in Poland on the occasion of Chernobyl nuclear accident followed by main lessons that the author could deduce from the accident. After the discovery of ionizing radiation at the end of 19th century, social perception has altered between acceptance and rejection stemming from recognition of the basic aspects: usefulness for medical applications and for technical and scientific aims, beneficial effects of their low levels, and harmful effects of high levels. The author explains how linear no-threshold (LNT) assumption according to which even the lowest, near zero doses of radiation may cause cancer genetic harm has become established. Comparing the natural radioactivity of the earth's crust with the activity of much shorter-lived radioactive wastes from the nuclear power cycle, it is concluded that none of the man-made component of the radioactive wastes has higher-toxicity than the natural Th 232. The paper concludes by stating that one century has not been long enough to adapt mentally to ionizing radiation and radioactivity and perhaps 21st century will suffice for this adaptation. (S. Ohno)

  1. Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

    Brodeau, Laurent; Koenigk, Torben

    2016-05-01

    We study the variability and the evolution of oceanic deep convection in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas from 1850 to 2100 using an ensemble of 12 climate model simulations with EC-Earth. During the historical period, the model shows a realistic localization of the main sites of deep convection, with the Labrador Sea accounting for most of the deep convective mixing in the northern hemisphere. Labrador convection is partly driven by the NAO (correlation of 0.6) and controls part of the variability of the AMOC at the decadal time scale (correlation of 0.6 when convection leads by 3-4 years). Deep convective activity in the Labrador Sea starts to decline and to become shallower in the beginning of the twentieth century. The decline is primarily caused by a decrease of the sensible heat loss to the atmosphere in winter resulting from increasingly warm atmospheric conditions. It occurs stepwise and is mainly the consequence of two severe drops in deep convective activity during the 1920s and the 1990s. These two events can both be linked to the low-frequency variability of the NAO. A warming of the sub-surface, resulting from reduced convective mixing, combines with an increasing influx of freshwater from the Nordic Seas to rapidly strengthen the surface stratification and prevent any possible resurgence of deep convection in the Labrador Sea after the 2020s. Deep convection in the Greenland Sea starts to decline in the 2020s, until complete extinction in 2100. As a response to the extinction of deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas, the AMOC undergoes a linear decline at a rate of about -0.3 Sv per decade during the twenty-first century.

  2. Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

    Brodeau, Laurent; Koenigk, Torben

    2015-07-01

    We study the variability and the evolution of oceanic deep convection in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas from 1850 to 2100 using an ensemble of 12 climate model simulations with EC-Earth. During the historical period, the model shows a realistic localization of the main sites of deep convection, with the Labrador Sea accounting for most of the deep convective mixing in the northern hemisphere. Labrador convection is partly driven by the NAO (correlation of 0.6) and controls part of the variability of the AMOC at the decadal time scale (correlation of 0.6 when convection leads by 3-4 years). Deep convective activity in the Labrador Sea starts to decline and to become shallower in the beginning of the twentieth century. The decline is primarily caused by a decrease of the sensible heat loss to the atmosphere in winter resulting from increasingly warm atmospheric conditions. It occurs stepwise and is mainly the consequence of two severe drops in deep convective activity during the 1920s and the 1990s. These two events can both be linked to the low-frequency variability of the NAO. A warming of the sub-surface, resulting from reduced convective mixing, combines with an increasing influx of freshwater from the Nordic Seas to rapidly strengthen the surface stratification and prevent any possible resurgence of deep convection in the Labrador Sea after the 2020s. Deep convection in the Greenland Sea starts to decline in the 2020s, until complete extinction in 2100. As a response to the extinction of deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas, the AMOC undergoes a linear decline at a rate of about -0.3 Sv per decade during the twenty-first century.

  3. Projected 21st-century changes in the Central American mid-summer drought using statistically downscaled daily CMIP5 precipitation projections

    Roby, N.; Maurer, E. P.

    2015-12-01

    The seasonal precipitation pattern of the Central American region is marked by a temporary reduction of precipitation during the typical May-October rainy season, often termed the mid-summer drought. A mid-summer drought (MSD) has been defined as a period of significant decrease in precipitation over a time period greater than one month. Different characteristics of the MSD, including the start date, duration, and intensity, have implications for regional ecosystems, crop production, and the livelihood of farmers in the region. The characteristics and driving mechanisms of the MSD have been investigated for many years, and recently an objective algorithm for the presence and intensity (or strength) of the MSD was developed based on monthly precipitation data. The current work develops an objective algorithm for MSD intensity and duration based on daily precipitation from a data set of gridded observations. The algorithm is then applied to future daily precipitation projections for the Central American region, produced by statistically downscaling climate model output produced as part of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This allows a representation of the projected changes in MSD at a finer temporal scale, and may help in shaping adaptation measures promoted to cope with these changes.

  4. Constitution-making in the 21st century

    Cheryl Saunders

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Constitutions have been made or changed in major ways in more than half the countries of the world in recent decades. This article deals with contemporary approaches to constitution-making, organising the analysis around three key phases: setting the agenda, in terms of both substance and process; design, drafting and approval; and implementation. It argues that, while all constitution-making processes are different, there are some distinctive features of constitution-making in the 21st century that include popular participation, the need to build trust, internationalisation in its various forms and the importance of process. The article canvasses examples of constitution-making practices that have been or are likely to be influential. It identifies and briefly explores some of the key tensions in constitution-making between, for example, international involvement and domestic ownership of a Constitution and public participation and leadership.

  5. Challenges for Educational Technologists in the 21st Century

    Robin Mayes

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In 1972, Edsger Dijkstra claimed that computers had only introduced the new problem of learning to use them effectively. This is especially true in 2015 with regard to powerful new educational technologies. This article describes the challenges that 21st century educational technologists are, and will be, addressing as they undertake the effective integration of new technologies into K-12 educational systems and learning environments. The expanding Internet, ever more powerful mobile devices, and other innovations make the task of designing effective formal and informal learning challenging, especially in light of the high rate of change in these new technologies. While these technologies introduce many benefits, they are also causing serious threats to system security and personal privacy. Furthermore, as these technologies continue to evolve, ethical issues such as equal access to resources become imperative. Educational technologists must expand their forward-thinking leadership and planning competencies so as to ensure effective use of new technologies.

  6. Lithium Resources for the 21st Century

    Kesler, S.; Gruber, P.; Medina, P.; Keolian, G.; Everson, M. P.; Wallington, T.

    2011-12-01

    Lithium is an important industrial compound and the principal component of high energy-density batteries. Because it is the lightest solid element, these batteries are widely used in consumer electronics and are expected to be the basis for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the 21st century. In view of the large incremental demand for lithium that will result from expanded use of various types of EVs, long-term estimates of lithium demand and supply are advisable. For GDP growth rates of 2 to 3% and battery recycling rates of 90 to 100%, total demand for lithium for all markets is expected to be a maximum of 19.6 million tonnes through 2100. This includes 3.2 million tonnes for industrial compounds, 3.6 million tonnes for consumer electronics, and 12.8 million tonnes for EVs. Lithium-bearing mineral deposits that might supply this demand contain an estimated resource of approximately 39 million tonnes, although many of these deposits have not been adequately evaluated. These lithium-bearing mineral deposits are of two main types, non-marine playa-brine deposits and igneous deposits. Playa-brine deposits have the greatest immediate resource potential (estimated at 66% of global resources) and include the Salar de Atacama (Chile), the source of almost half of current world lithium production, as well as Zabuye (China/Tibet) and Hombre Muerto (Argentina). Additional important playa-brine lithium resources include Rincon (Argentina), Qaidam (China), Silver Peak (USA) and Uyuni (Bolivia), which together account for about 35% of the estimated global lithium resource. Information on the size and continuity of brine-bearing aquifers in many of these deposits is limited, and differences in chemical composition of brines from deposit to deposit require different extraction processes and yield different product mixes of lithium, boron, potassium and other elements. Numerous other brines in playas

  7. Ocean Acidification: A Major Driver of Coral Bleaching in the 21st Century?

    Anthony, K.; Eakin, M. C.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.

    2009-05-01

    Heat stress long been known to drive patterns of coral bleaching. Recently, however, it was discovered that ocean acidification can drive coral bleaching independently of temperature. This raises the question: how important will acidification be in driving coral bleaching under climate change? Here, we develop and apply a model that accounts for both thermal stress and ocean acidification in the coral bleaching response. Our analyses, which combine experimental bleaching data under manipulated ocean chemistry and warming with projections of CO2 and SST based on global circulation models, show that ocean acidification will become a key driver of future mass bleaching events within a few decades. Our findings, based on highly conservative assumptions, reveal that coral bleaching alert systems based on warming alone could underestimate coral bleaching by up to 50% during the 21st century. This is a striking result that will affect coral reef management strategies worldwide and has policy implications relating to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Do You Want Your Students to Be Job-Ready with 21st Century Skills? Change Pedagogies: A Pedagogical Paradigm Shift from Vygotskyian Social Constructivism to Critical Thinking, Problem Solving and Siemens' Digital Connectivism

    Kivunja, Charles

    2014-01-01

    As Michael Fullan (2001) so cogently asserts, the moral purpose of education is to equip students with the skills that will enable them to be productive citizens when they finish school. Whereas pre-21st century learning paradigms catered reasonably well for the pursuit of this moral purpose in turning out school leavers with specialized skills…

  9. School Psychology Training for the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities.

    Swerdlik, Mark E.; French, Joseph L.

    2000-01-01

    Training programs will continue to change to meet the needs of consumers of school psychological services in the 21st century. Provides information about the factors influencing the preparation of school psychologists whose roles and functions must change to meet these needs. Emphasis is on the overall context of training and the anticipated…

  10. Agenda to address climate change

    This document looks at addressing climate change in the 21st century. Topics covered are: Responding to climate change; exploring new avenues in energy efficiency; energy efficiency and alternative energy; residential sector; commercial sector; industrial sector; transportation sector; communities; renewable energy; understanding forests to mitigate and adapt to climate change; the Forest Carbon budget; mitigation and adaptation

  11. Training Librarians for 21st Century Repository Services: Emerging Trends

    Helen Emasealu; Susan Nnadozie Umeozor

    2016-01-01

    The paper reviewed the emerging roles of the 21st century librarians, charged with the responsibility to manage repository services across libraries in present-day information technology environment. Librarians need to be trained and empowered with requisite skills and knowledge needed for successful management of the ICT driven repository initiatives that the 21st century demands. Literature was reviewed on the roles and responsibilities of librarians, training needs and opportunities, car...

  12. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.

    Van Vuuren, D P; Meinshausen, M; Plattner, G-K; Joos, F; Strassmann, K M; Smith, S J; Wigley, T M L; Raper, S C B; Riahi, K; de la Chesnaye, F; den Elzen, M G J; Fujino, J; Jiang, K; Nakicenovic, N; Paltsev, S; Reilly, J M

    2008-10-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  13. Environmental issues in the 21st century

    This paper provides an overview of some of the environmental challenges facing the uranium production industry in the 21st century. For many years, the linear, non-threshold (LNT) model has been regarded as a prudent hypothesis for radiation protection purposes. This paradigm has been challenged at the same time for both underestimating and overestimating the risks from ionizing radiation. The reality is that the ability of conventional epidemiology to distinguish small risks will always be limited by statistical power at low doses. In the future, there will be increased emphasis on better understanding the effects of ionizing radiation at the cellular (and sub cellular) level. The concept of 'controllable dose' has been proposed as an alternative to the ICRP's current approach to dose limitation. The concept is that if the most exposed individual is protected, then society as a whole is protected. A hazard ranking scale based on comparisons to natural background levels of radiation has been proposed. Adoption of a concept such as 'controllable dose' would require a parallel re-evaluation of the concepts and application of collective dose and ALARA optimization. The protection of non-human biota is an issue of considerable interest in many countries. The science in this area is rapidly evolving, as are discussions of a more philosophical nature. For example, should the focus of environmental risk assessment be the sustainability of the population or should the focus be to limit effects on a single member of the population? The future of environmental risk assessment should be of great interest to the uranium production industry. A systematic approach to risk assessment addressing the full scope of potential hazards - environmental, human health, engineering, financial and others - will be increasingly important in the future. What level of risk is it reasonable to accept? What is meant by 'reasonable'? How much risk can be engineered away, for how long, and at what

  14. Geoscience and the 21st Century Workforce

    Manduca, C. A.; Bralower, T. J.; Blockstein, D.; Keane, C. M.; Kirk, K. B.; Schejbal, D.; Wilson, C. E.

    2013-12-01

    Geoscience knowledge and skills play new roles in the workforce as our society addresses the challenges of living safely and sustainably on Earth. As a result, we expect a wider range of future career opportunities for students with education in the geosciences and related fields. A workshop offered by the InTeGrate STEP Center on 'Geoscience and the 21st Century Workforce' brought together representatives from 24 programs with a substantial geoscience component, representatives from different employment sectors, and workforce scholars to explore the intersections between geoscience education and employment. As has been reported elsewhere, employment in energy, environmental and extractive sectors for geoscientists with core geology, quantitative and communication skills is expected to be robust over the next decade as demand for resources grow and a significant part of the current workforce retires. Relatively little is known about employment opportunities in emerging areas such as green energy or sustainability consulting. Employers at the workshop from all sectors are seeking the combination of strong technical, quantitative, communication, time management, and critical thinking skills. The specific technical skills are highly specific to the employer and employment needs. Thus there is not a single answer to the question 'What skills make a student employable?'. Employers at this workshop emphasized the value of data analysis, quantitative, and problem solving skills over broad awareness of policy issues. Employers value the ability to articulate an appropriate, effective, creative solution to problems. Employers are also very interested in enthusiasm and drive. Participants felt that the learning outcomes that their programs have in place were in line with the needs expressed by employers. Preparing students for the workforce requires attention to professional skills, as well as to the skills needed to identify career pathways and land a job. This critical

  15. Reading for Learning: Literacy Supports for 21st-Century Work

    Gomez, Louis M.; Gomez, Kimberley

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. work force is changing. Professional and related occupations and service occupations will be the fastest-growing sectors for the foreseeable future. Both demand strong communication skills for sharing complex ideas across diverse communities. In addition, the 21st-century economy will require its members to think creatively and critically…

  16. Curricular Adaptations in Inpatient Child Psychiatry for the 21st Century: The Flexner Model Revisited

    Bell, Cathy K.; Guerrero, Anthony; Matsu, Courtenay; Takeshita, Junji; Haning, William; Schultz, Karen

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The authors describe curricular modifications created in response to the changing culture of medical education, health care systems, academic medicine, and generational differences. The authors propose a model child psychiatry inpatient curriculum that is sustainable within a community teaching hospital in the 21st century. Methods: The…

  17. Workplace, Organizational, and Societal: Three Domains of Learning for 21st-Century Cities

    Yorks, Lyle; Barto, Jody

    2015-01-01

    Interconnections between workplace and organizational learning can highlight the ongoing changes taking place that prestage the need for learning cities and regions. The diverse institutions that comprise cities and regions can function as organizational learning mechanisms in the 21st century. Learning cities themselves can also be conceptualized…

  18. Social Diversity and Democracy in Higher Education in the 21st Century: Towards a Feminist Critique

    David, Miriam E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper takes a feminist perspective on the UK literature on mass higher education in the 21st century, building on US critiques about marketization, neo-liberalism and "academic capitalism". Concepts of equality and diversity have been transformed by neo-liberalism and how these changes have constrained democratic contributions to UK higher…

  19. The Political Economy of Work in the 21st Century: Implications for an Aging American Workforce.

    Sicker, Martin

    The prospective place of the aging worker in the employment environment of the 21st century is examined. The following are among the specific topics discussed: (1) the real world of work and retirement; (2) the changing employment environment; (3) the restructuring of business in the United States; (4) globalization and the economy; (5) downsizing…

  20. Developing the 21st-Century Social Studies Skills through Technology Integration

    Farisi, Mohammad Imam

    2016-01-01

    Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS) should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration…

  1. 21st-Century Mentor Texts: Developing Critical Literacies in the Information Age

    Gainer, Jesse

    2013-01-01

    This column explores the idea of using 21st-century mentor texts to guide students in the development of critical literacy. The column focuses on one example from the U.S. presidential election of 2012 to illustrate how teachers might engage students to unpack the socially constructed nature of literacy. The author argues that the changing reading…

  2. Critical Thinking for 21st-Century Education: A Cyber-Tooth Curriculum?

    Higgins, Steve

    2014-01-01

    It is often assumed that the advent of digital technologies requires fundamental change to the curriculum and to the teaching and learning approaches used in schools around the world to educate this generation of "digital natives" or the "net generation". This article analyses the concepts of 21st-century skills and critical…

  3. Environmental Changes and Social Vulnerability in an Ageing Society: Portugal in the Transition from the 20th to the 21st Centuries

    Maria João Guardado Moreira

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the main structural changes human societies are actually facing relies on demographic ageing process, with strong impacts on health system and quality of life. Social and environmental factors can be used as predictors for health conditions, functional and cognitive autonomy, wellbeing and satisfaction on older ages. Reduced incomes, low educational level, situation of loneliness, can also be pointed as predictive factors of a major and premature deterioration of health. The adaptation of social structures must be a priority for all ageing societies. Portugal will also have to find answers to these challenges. The main objective of this study is to understand the process of vulnerability and multiple dependency situations caused by changes in the Portuguese demographic structure, manly regarding old people, as concerns the following aspects: a levels of well-being in ageing regions determined by a statistical indicator; b specific health care and long-term care.

  4. Contrasting visions for aid and governance in the 21st century: the White House Millennium Challenge Account and DFID`s Drivers of Change

    Vasudha Chhotray

    2006-01-01

    Governance is becoming increasingly important in development and poverty reduction policies. However, the forms and methods by which it is to be incorporated into donor programs are only emerging at present. In this paper, we contrast two very different approaches - the White House led Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and DFID`s Drivers of Change (DOC) Approach - to analysing governance, and compare their theoretical underpinnings. A key factor explaining why these different approaches have...

  5. Contrasting visions for aid and governance in the 21st century: the White House Millennium Challenge Account and DFID’s Drivers of Change.

    Chhotray, Vasudha; Hulme, David

    2007-01-01

    Governance is becoming increasingly important in development and poverty reduction policies. However, the forms and methods by which it is to be incorporated into donor programs are only emerging at present. In this paper, we contrast two very different approaches- the White House led Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and DFID’s Drivers of Change (DOC) Approach- to analysing governance, and compare their theoretical underpinnings. A key factor explaining why these different ap...

  6. Significance of migrations and national affiliation in the change of ethnical structure of Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century

    Raduški Nada

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Disintegration of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the creation of new ethno-national states, armed conflicts and "ethnic cleansing", mass ethnocentric migrations of the population, as well as some socio-economic factors led to significant changes in the demographic and ethnic map of Serbia. Migrations of the population, voluntary of forced represent a phenomenon which by its range, intensity and characteristics undoubtedly marked the last decade of the 20th century. Having in mind their number and national structure (mainly Serbs, refugee migrations, as a specific aspect of migration movements, caused by the political and social circumstances, dominantly influenced the change of ethnic picture of Serbia towards homogenization and majorization of the population. In addition to this factor, changes when declaring one's national affiliation, both in the case of ethnic revivalism and ethnic mimicry, significantly determined population dynamics of particular nations, that is their position in the ethnic map of Srbia. Thus the data from the last census in 2002 indicate that - precisely due to the effect of the subjective factor - there appeared the increase in the number and share of some nationalities (the Roma, the Wallachians., that is the significant decrease in some other (the Yugoslavs, the Montenegrins. in the total population of Serbia. As a result of the mentioned, but also of many other historical, sociocultural and political factors, Serbia today represents a multiethnic multi-confessional and multicultural state in which - beside the majority nation - there also live numerous national minorities pronouncedly differentiated according to the demographic, socio-economic, religious and cultural characteristics. Therefore, the minority issue is undoubtedly of crucial significance, because good inter-ethnic relations, that is respect of the minority rights on the one hand, but also the loyalty of national minorities to

  7. Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century

    V. Zubov

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry-climate model (CCM SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contribution of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHG, ozone depleting substances (ODS and sea surface temperature and sea ice (SST/SI distribution. The last one is considered here as an independent factor because the majority of the CCMs prescribe its evolution. We have performed three sets of "time-slice" numerical experiments with CCM SOCOL for the years 2000, 2050, and 2100 taking into account all factors separately and all together. It was established that the total column ozone increase during the first half of the 21st century is caused by the ODS, especially in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the tropics and the extra tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere (NH the SST/SI forcing plays very important role in the evolution of ozone atmospheric content during the second half of the 21st century. The GHG affect the temperature and ozone mainly in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere of the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH. In the lower tropical stratosphere of the NH the long-term changes of the temperature, zonal wind velocity and the meridional circulation intensity are controlled mainly by the SST/SI. The strong contribution of the SST/SI to the ozone and circulation changes in the future implies that some differences between the simulated results could be caused by the applied SST/SI rather than by the CCM's deficiencies. We suggest taking this issue into account for the planning of the future model evaluation campaigns.

  8. Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

    2008-01-01

    The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.

  9. A-21st-century-approach to firefighting in the Western US: How microwave-based seismic networks can change fire suppression from reactive to proactive

    Kent, G. M.; Smith, K. D.; Williams, M. C.; Slater, D. E.; Plank, G.; McCarthy, M.; Rojas-Gonzalez, R.; Vernon, F.; Driscoll, N. W.; Hidley, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Nevada Seismological Laboratory (NSL) at UNR has recently embarked on a bold technical initiative, installing a high-speed (up to 190 Mb/sec) mountaintop-based Internet Protocol (IP) microwave network, enabling a myriad of sensor systems for Multi-Hazard Early Warning detection and response. In the Tahoe Basin, this system is known as AlertTahoe; a similar network has been deployed in north-central Nevada as part of a 5-year-long grant with BLM. The UNR network mirrors the successful HPWREN multi-hazard network run through UCSD; the UNR "Alert" program (Access to Leverage Emergency information in Real Time) has expanded on the original concept by providing a framework for early fire detection and discovery. Both systems do not rely on open-access public Internet services such as those provided by cellular service providers. Instead, they utilize private wireless communication networks to collect data 24/7 in real-time from multiple sensors throughout the system. Utilizing this restricted-access private communication platform enhances system reliability, capability, capacity and versatility for staff and its community of certified users. Both UNR and UCSD fire camera systems are presently being confederated under a common framework to provide end users (e.g., BLM, USFS, CalFire) a unified interface. Earthquake response has been both organizations' primary mission for decades; high-speed IP microwave fundamentally changes the playing field allowing for rapid early detection of wildfires, earthquakes and other natural disasters, greatly improving local and regional disaster response/recovery. For example, networked cameras can be optimally placed for wildfire detection and are significantly less vulnerable due infrastructure hardening and the ability to avoid extreme demands by the public on cellular and other public networks during a crisis. These systems also provide a backup for emergency responders to use when public access communications become overwhelmed or

  10. On Recovery of the Ozone Layer in the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st Century

    Larin, Igor

    2014-05-01

    Time recovery of the ozone layer in the latitudinal zones of 0°-85° N, 0°-30° N, 30°-60° N and 60°-85° N in the 21st century has been evaluated. Evaluations have been made using an interactive chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional (2-D) model of the middle atmosphere Socrates (height 0-120 km). As initial data for calculations for the first time the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 have been used. According to the scenario RCP 4.5 a stabilization of the radiative forcing must occur before the end of the twenty-first century, and according to the scenario RCP 6.0 - in the 22nd century. It has been shown that under both scenarios, the recovery of the ozone layer in the northern hemisphere (0°-85° N) can take place in 2035, and in zones of 0°-30° N, 30°-60° N and 60°-85° N does in 2020, 2030 and 2035, respectively. It has been also shown that after recovery the ozone layer will continue to grow and by the end of the 21st century will reach the stationary level exceeding undisturbed level of 1960 at 2.7% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 3.6% (scenario RCP 6.0) in zone 0°-85° N. It seems to be not smaller ecological threat than depletion of the ozone layer at the end of the twentieth century. The results obtained are in good agreement with the known literary data (see, for example, Table 3-3 in "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010"), indicating that the model Socrates and "concentration" scenarios of IPCC can successfully be used for such calculations.

  11. Tracking South Asian Monsoon in the 21st Century

    Rastogi, D.; Mei, R.; Hodges, K. I.; Ashfaq, M.

    2013-05-01

    In this study, we analyze the simulations of the Global Climate Models that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over the South Asian summer monsoon region for the historic (1960-2005) and the 21st century projection (2006-2100) periods. We apply two evaluation matrices namely precipitation recycling ratio analysis and monsoon depressions tracking algorithm to investigate the accuracy of the simulated processes in the GCMs that control the observed spatial and temporal distribution of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. We sub-select the GCMs for the future period evaluations based on their ability in the simulation of different moisture sources and the accuracy of the low pressure systems tracks that transport moisture over the South Asian land during summer monsoon season in the baseline period. Further, we use selected GCMs to understand the effect of increase in greenhouse forcing on the frequency and tracks of the low-pressure systems during summer monsoon season, and on the moisture sources. These analyses will improve our understanding of the ability of CMIP5 GCMs in the simulation of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics and provide important implications for the reliability of future climate projections over this region.

  12. Energy for the 21st Century

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC was released in 2007 and dealt with the scientific basis for climate change, consequences of emissions, and mitigation and adaptation. The Industrial Revolution began the large-scale emission of pollutants to Earth's atmosphere and water from exploitation of coal, oil, and minerals. Energy has been cheap, if we do not consider the unintended consequences. The times may finally be changing--the cost of oil (in constant dollars), and the gasoline made from it, was higher through the first half of 2008 than at any time in history before declining with the global economic downturn, and promises to rise again when the global economy recovers. For the first time, a majority of Americans polled understand that global warming will lead to significant change in climate. How will these changes affect future actions of citizens of North America and the world? What can be done to protect the future of our children and grandchildren? This talk will focus on human effects on Earth of our need for energy and their import for the future.

  13. Aspen management for the 21st century

    Navratil, S.; Chapman, P.B. (eds.)

    1991-01-01

    A symposium was held to discuss the management of the aspen resource for fiber and other uses, along with public concerns regarding the aspen resource. Papers were presented on aspen regeneration, the role of balsam poplar, aspen inventory, modelling aspen growth and yield, aspen harvesting, aspen management and the environment, integrated resource management, wildlife and aspen management, genetic improvement of poplars, aspen stand thinning, sustainable development of the aspen resource, private land forestry, and the effect of climate change on aspen in Canada. A separate abstract has been prepared for one paper from this symposium.

  14. Informing 21st-Century Risk Assessments with 21st-Century Science

    Birnbaum, Linda S.; Burke, Thomas A.; Jones, James J.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Understanding and preventing adverse impacts from chemicals in the environment is fundamental to protecting public health, and chemical risk assessments are used to inform public health decisions in the United States and around the world. Traditional chemical risk assessments focus on health effects of environmental contaminants on a chemical-by-chemical basis, largely based on data from animal models using exposures that are typically higher than those experienced by humans. Results from environmental epidemiology studies sometimes show effects that are not observed in animal studies at human exposure levels that are lower than those used in animal studies. In addition, new approaches such as Toxicology in the 21st Century (Tox21) and exposure forecasting (ExpoCast) are generating mechanistic data that provide broad coverage of chemical space, chemical mixtures, and potential associated health outcomes, along with improved exposure estimates. It is becoming clear that risk assessments in the future will need to use the full range of available mechanistic, animal, and human data to integrate multiple types of data and to consider nontraditional health outcomes and end points. This perspective was developed at the “Strengthening the Scientific Basis of Chemical Safety Assessments” workshop, which was cosponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, where gaps between the emerging science and traditional chemical risk assessments were explored, and approaches for bridging the gaps were considered. PMID:27035154

  15. Energy use and sustainable development in the 21st century - Local action and national strategies

    NONE

    1999-07-01

    This report sums up the conference ''Energy use and sustainable development in the 21st century - Local action and national strategies'' that was held in Oslo in 1999. The purpose of the conference was to stimulate the development of climate- and energy strategies and actions that support a sustainable use of energy locally and regionally. The report discusses important points from the various contributions and from the workshops of the conference.

  16. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Hu, Y; Xia, Y.; Fu, Q

    2010-01-01

    Observations show a stabilization or a weak increase of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a results of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recove...

  17. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Hu, Y; Xia, Y.; Fu, Q

    2011-01-01

    Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernme...

  18. Fluid mechanics films in the 21st century

    Settles, Gary; Tremblay, Gabrielle; Cimbala, John; Dodson, Lori; Miller, J. D.

    2006-11-01

    The 1960's-era National Committee for Fluid Mechanics Films produced 39 famous 16mm films - dated but still in use - with 3 million dollars of NSF funding. Here we examine the nature of new fluid mechanics films, goals, media changes, and practicality. Examples are given of new narrated videos produced to illustrate chapters of a basic fluids text and provide a ``glimpse through the laboratory window.'' Both experiments and CFD are featured, though the facilities needed for the former are declining. The fundamentally-visual nature of the topic is emphasized with no repetition of text or equations. We believe this visual nature of fluid mechanics is the key to its role in renewed efforts to bolster US science education. This is one - not the only - paradigm for new fluid mechanics films. While inflation makes such film production perhaps 6 times more expensive than in the 1960's, there are offsetting economies based on consumer video technology and digital desktop production. Nonetheless, funding new educational fluid mechanics videos in the 21st century remains a daunting prospect.

  19. Young Adult Dystopias: Bildungsroman for the 21st Century

    Ljiljana Gavrilović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines young adult dystopian novels written in the first decade of the 21st century, as heirs to the tradition of the bildungsroman, and the great dystopias. The focus of this new genre has shifted from maintaining "the best of all worlds" – where the young person adjusts and fits into the existing world, to the shaping of the hero’s critical spirit which is supposed to result in the hero/heroine growing up, but also in changes in the world which they inhabit. Two other important characteristics of these novels are the critical relationship toward ancestors and tradition on the one hand, and on the other the positive assessment of non-rational decisions which are made impulsively and are based on emotions, which points to the abandonment of different aspects of the heritage of modernity (the traditions of rationalism and romanticism. Thus they set the stage for a new, different view of the world and the role which the individual is to fulfill by growing from a child into an adult in such a world.

  20. UKRAINE AND POLAND: FACING THE 21ST CENTURY CHALLENGES

    Igor Tsependa

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Establishing a common strategic framework is a decisive factor in the Ukrainian-Polish relations in the current social and political context. The complexity of the partnership between the two states arise from their geographical location on the borderline between civilizations, the site of historical cataclysms. At the same time, national sovereignty of was always a high priority for both peoples. The recognition of Ukraine’s independence by Poland marked a new stage of rapprochement between Warsaw and Kyiv, the act being evidence of maturity of the Polish political elite. Poland made its best to promote the interest of Ukraine in the international political arena. The article suggests periodization in the history of the Ukrainian-Polish partnership. Ukrainian policy can be modelled on Poland’s experience of the transformation of society. Being a member of the European Union, Poland advocates the idea of European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine. Increased economic cooperation is one of the aspects of the Ukrainian-Polish partnership. Cooperation at regional level, between local government bodies is also important for the relations between the two states. Step by step, visa regulations are being liberalized, interpersonal contacts broadened. The beginning of the 21st century witnesses a change in political consciousness of Ukrainian and Polish people, who reconsider painful events from their past.

  1. Water in the 21st Century

    Piechota, Thomas C

    2013-02-08

    This research project focused on sustainability issues in the southwest U.S. with an emphasis on water and energy. The efforts were directed through the UNLV Urban Sustainability Office with the funding used to develop a sustainability strategic plan; conduct extensive community outreach in the greater metropolitan area; provide seed money for multidisciplinary research teams to conduct studies in the areas of ecological, socio-cultural, and economic sustainability leading to community-based solutions; and to provide service-learning opportunities for UNLV graduate and undergraduate students. The research advanced understanding of urban and regional water issues with a particular focus on climate change and climate variability in the southwest. In addition, various events were held to promote discussion on energy, water, and sustainability discussions in the community. The impact of this research was broad dissemination of research through 13 peer-reviewed publications, learning opportunities for countless students as a result of class room equipment upgrades (see report for upgrade details), and new research funding for further advancement of these research efforts.

  2. Boreal snow cover variations induced by aerosol emissions in the middle of the 21st century

    M. Ménégoz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC deposition over continents induces a reduction in the Mean Number of Days With Snow at the Surface (MNDWS that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month−1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. Considering this scenario in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month−1 in the 2050s in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from pre-industrial values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid 21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated to these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated

  3. Teaching with Autoharps in the 21st Century

    Birnie, Rebecca A.

    2014-01-01

    The excitement of playing an instrument is one of the greatest motivating forces in teaching general music to students. The autoharp, which may be long forgotten in the general music classrooms of the 21st century, is an ideal instrument to "re-introduce" to students. The teaching of a traditional folk instrument provides advantages for…

  4. Developing 21st Century Process Skills through Project Design

    Yoo, Jeong-Ju; MacDonald, Nora M.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to illustrate how the promotion of 21st Century process skills can be used to enhance student learning and workplace skill development: thinking, problem solving, collaboration, communication, leadership, and management. As an illustrative case, fashion merchandising and design students conducted research for a…

  5. Software Engineering Technology for the 21st Century

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we will discuss the software engineering technologyfor the 21 st century. First we review development over the last half-century, overview application re quirement and environment, accept a challenge. Then we outline following software engineering techniques: 1) Process;2) Analysis;3) Design;4) UML;5) Component;6) Java +XML;7) Integrated;8) Quality(ISO9000&CMM).

  6. Grandma Moses in the 21st Century. Learning from Exhibitions.

    Johnson, Mark M.

    2001-01-01

    Provides background information on the life and career of Grandma Moses who was born as Anna Mary Robertson and painted in the style of folk or naive art. Addresses the art exhibition entitled "Grandma Moses in the 21st Century" that explores the recurring themes in her artwork. (CMK)

  7. 21st Century Knowledge and Skills in Educator Preparation

    Greenhill, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to create the foundation for ongoing dialogue around how 21st century knowledge and skills can be appropriately embedded in educator preparation, and to guide the development of resources and services to support educator programs. This paper aims to: (1) Develop a blueprint for building the models, tools, resource…

  8. Adventurous Lives: Teacher Qualities for 21st Century Learning

    Faulkner, Julie; Latham, Gloria

    2016-01-01

    What kinds of teachers are needed for 21st century learners? While there is recognition that curriculum content, classroom practices and learning environments must alter, there is less attention focussed on the teachers' dispositions for negotiating uncertainty. In this paper, the authors turn their attention to the importance of teachers' lives…

  9. A New Leadership Paradigm for the 21st Century

    Woodland, Calvin; Parsons, Michael H.

    2013-01-01

    Leadership in the 21st century will require new insights and a new paradigm. With nearly 100 years of combined experience in community college teaching and administration, the authors of this chapter blend theory and experience into a design for engaging the "new normal."

  10. Technology Enhanced Formative Assessment for 21st Century Learning

    Spector, J. Michael; Ifenthaler, Dirk; Sampson, Demetrios; Yang, Lan; Mukama, Evode; Warusavitarana, Amali; Dona, Kulari Lokuge; Eichhorn, Koos; Fluck, Andrew; Huang, Ronghuai; Bridges, Susan; Lu, Jiingyan; Ren, Youqun; Gui, Xiaoqing; Deneen, Christopher C.; San Diego, Jonathan; Gibson, David C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is based on the deliberations of the Assessment Working Group at EDUsummIT 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand. All of the members of Thematic Working Group 5 (TWG5) have contributed to this synthesis of potentials, concerns and issues with regard to the role of technology in assessment as, for and of learning in the 21st century. The group…

  11. 21st Century Skills: Prepare Students for the Future

    Larson, Lotta C.; Miller, Teresa Northern

    2011-01-01

    Skills students will need for the society in which they will work and live shouldn't be thought of as "one more thing to teach," but rather training integrated across all curricula. This article takes a look at 21st century skills and how these skills directly impact teaching and learning. Classroom teachers need to be familiar with these skills…

  12. Rice production in China in the early 21st Century

    2000-01-01

    @@ Rice is the staple food crop in China. In the second half of the 20th century, rice has played an important role in feeding a large number of people. In the 21st century, rice will still be a main food crop in China and make great contribution to Chinese people's life.

  13. Decolonizing Aboriginal Education in the 21st Century

    Munroe, Elizabeth Ann; Lunney-Borden, Lisa; Murray-Orr, Anne; Toney, Denise; Meader, Jane

    2013-01-01

    Concerned by the need to decolonize education for Aboriginal students, the authors explore philosophies of Indigenous ways of knowing and those of the 21st century learning movement. In their efforts to propose a way forward with Aboriginal education, the authors inquire into harmonies between Aboriginal knowledges and tenets of 21st century…

  14. 21st Century Learning and Progressive Education: An Intersection

    Little, Tom

    2013-01-01

    The seminal tenets of progressive education bear a striking resemblance to the newly fashionable principles associated with with a new movement known as "21st Century Education". This article traces the development of progressive education principles, starting with the founding of the Progressive Education Association, and shows their close…

  15. 21st Century Skills and the Physics Classroom

    Rigeman, Sally; Bruecken, Peter

    2009-11-01

    What content knowledge and skills will today's physics students need to acquire to be successful employees in the 21st century? How can today's physics classrooms prepare students for collaboration in a global work environment? What kind of instruction can engage physics students in learning that supports these demands? Attend this session to find out what motivates today's Net Generation.

  16. Cyber Portfolio: The Innovative Menu for 21st Century Technology

    Robles, Ava Clare Marie O.

    2012-01-01

    Cyber portfolio is a valuable innovative menu for teachers who seek out strategies or methods to integrate technology into their lessons. This paper presents a straightforward preparation on how to innovate a menu that addresses the 21st century skills blended with higher order thinking skills, multiple intelligence, technology and multimedia.…

  17. Transforming Power Systems; 21st Century Power Partnership

    None

    2015-05-20

    The 21st Century Power Partnership - a multilateral effort of the Clean Energy Ministerial - serves as a platform for public-private collaboration to advance integrated solutions for the large-scale deployment of renewable energy in combination with deep energy ef?ciency and smart grid solutions.

  18. Resource scarcity in the 21st century: conflict or cooperation?

    Qasem, I.

    2010-01-01

    Oil and natural gas, water, food, and minerals are critical to ensuring our wellbeing and prosperity. The mismatch between future demand and supply is crystallizing into one of the most complex and urgent issues policymakers will face in the 21st Century. Unless the challenges arising from these sca

  19. Vision for a 21st Century Information Infrastructure.

    Council on Competitiveness, Washington, DC.

    In order to ensure that the United States maintains an advanced information infrastructure, the Council on Competitiveness has started a project on the 21st century infrastructure. Participating in this project are the many different parties who are providing and using the infrastructure, including cable companies, regional Bell companies, long…

  20. Fostering 21st Century Skills through Game Design and Development

    Garvey, Gregory P.

    2015-01-01

    This reflection paper argues that the design and development of digital games teach essential 21st century skills. Intrinsic to application and game development is design thinking. Design thinking requires iterative development, which demands creativity, critical thinking and problem solving. Students are engaged through learning by doing in both…

  1. Implementing 21st Century Literacies in First-Year Composition

    Froehlich, Maggie Gordon; Froehlich, Peter Alan

    2013-01-01

    In November 2008, the National Council of Teachers of English published "The NCTE Definition of 21st Century Literacies" (21CL); its objectives include using technology, producing and analyzing multimedia texts, accessing and evaluating complex research sources, building relationships to enable collaboration, considering the diversity of a global…

  2. Servant Leadership: Guiding Extension Programs in the 21st Century

    Astroth, Kirk A.; Goodwin, Jeff; Hodnett, Frank

    2011-01-01

    A new set of leadership skills is required for Extension administrators for the 21st century. Past models and theories are reviewed and discussed. The old "power" model of leadership is no longer relevant. A relatively new model called "Servant Leadership" is reviewed and explained. Seven key practices of servant leadership are outlined, and the…

  3. Emerging: Negotiating Identity in a 21st Century American Seminary

    Shafer, Peter W.

    2010-01-01

    "Emerging: Negotiating Identity in a 21st Century American Seminary" is an ethnographic investigation involving a diverse group of students as they experience their first year of graduate-level theological education at a Protestant seminary in the United States. The study analyzes the observations and student interviews that form the core of the…

  4. Problem-based Science Inquiry : : Challenges and Possibilities for Addressing 21st Century Skills

    Nariman, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation is a mixed methods exploratory case study on the implementation of problem-based inquiry. The trend of technological changes have created a wave of global change, brought new understanding of learning, and requires a shift in education to develop and accommodate proficiency in 21st century skills and competencies. As a result, in many countries, including the United States, the push to benchmark educational standards is in place to prepare students for success in college and...

  5. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

  6. Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

    Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E. V.; Muthers, S.; Peter, T.; BröNnimann, S.; Arfeuille, F.; Beer, J.; Shapiro, A. I.; Raible, C. C.; Steinhilber, F.; Schmutz, W. K.

    2013-08-01

    We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

  7. Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.

    Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-02-01

    Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. PMID:25179273

  8. Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

    Oman, L. D.; Plummer, D. A.; Waugh, D. W.; Austin, J.; Scinocca, J.; Douglass, A. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Cugnet, D.; Dhomse, S.; Eyring, V.; Frith, S.; Hardiman, S. C.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Mancini, E.; Marchand, M.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Nakamura T.

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

  9. Some Hot Spots in the Study of Chinese Drugs in the 21st Century

    肖培根

    2004-01-01

    @@ Mankind has entered the 21st century of high speed development in science and economics. Owing to the alteration of disease modes in the new century, the greatly elevated quality of human life and the arrival of aged society, the modes of medicine have obviously changed from the treatment mode to the prevention mode, the medical thought emphasizes more the holistic approach of human body.

  10. Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

    2015-01-01

    Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

  11. FOR A SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL TRANSITION: 21ST CENTURY ORGANISATIONS REALIGN THEMSELVES AROUND VALUES

    Associate lecturer François Silva

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to discus the changes that confronting our society. The modernity is perceived like an expression of man's control over himself and over nature through reason in a desire for unlimited expansion, therefore implying that growth could be infinite. Consequently, the new logics of the 21st century concern the globalisation of trade and the issues of sustainable development and social responsibility.

  12. Restructuring leadership for 21st century schools : how transformational leadership and trust cultivate teacher leadership

    Longwell-McKean, Paula Cheree

    2012-01-01

    A growing body of literature on effective leadership styles has emerged as 21st century leaders face higher student expectations, more demands on teachers and lack of support from the public. An examination of the effects of transactional and transformational leadership provides educators with indications as to the best practices with regard to transforming the direction of schools. Proponents of transformational leadership recommend this approach as the best fit for today's changing times. T...

  13. Literacy Is "Not" Enough: 21st Century Fluencies for the Digital Age. The 21st Century Fluency Series

    Crockett, Lee; Jukes, Ian; Churches, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    Educating students to traditional literacy standards is no longer enough. If students are to thrive in their academic and 21st century careers, then independent and creative thinking hold the highest currency. The authors explain in detail how to add these new components of literacy: (1) Solution Fluency; (2) Information Fluency; (3) Creativity…

  14. Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

    Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

  15. Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

    Yang, X. L.; Ren, L. L.; Tong, R.; Liu, Y.; Cheng, X. R.; Jiang, S. H.; Yuan, F.

    2015-06-01

    Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

  16. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Hu, Y.; Xia, Y.; Fu, Q.

    2011-08-01

    Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and annual mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001-2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The global and annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001-2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

  17. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Y. Hu

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4 models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and annual mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The global and annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

  18. On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century

    Hauck, J.; Völker, C.; Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.; Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Gruber, N.; Hashioka, T.; John, J.; Quéré, C. Le; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Séférian, R.; Totterdell, I.

    2015-09-01

    We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (˜10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on

  19. 21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

    Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

  20. WLANs for the 21st Century Library

    Calamari, Cal

    2009-01-01

    As educational and research needs have changed, libraries have changed as well. They must meet ever-increasing demand for access to online media, subscriptions to archives, video, audio, and other content. The way a user/patron accesses this information has also changed. Gone are the days of a few hardwired desktops or computer carts. While…

  1. Avoiding HFC growth is critical for keeping global warming below 2 °C during the 21st century

    V. Ramanathan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by end of the century, therefore significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  2. Prediction CH4 Emissions from the Wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of Northeastern China in the 21st Century.

    Li, Tingting; Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Guocheng; Lu, Yanyu; Yu, Lijun; Zhang, Ran

    2016-01-01

    The Sanjiang Plain has been experienced significant wetland loss due to expanded agricultural activities, and will be potentially restored by the China National Wetland Conservation Action Plan (NWCP) in future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of future climate warming and wetland restoration on wetland CH4 emissions in northeast China. We used an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to drive a modified biogeophysical model (CH4MODwetland), and projected CH4 flux variations from the Sanjiang Plain wetlands under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios throughout the 21st century. Model validation showed that the regressions between the observed and simulated CH4 fluxes by the modified model produced an R2 of 0.49 with a slope of 0.87 (pclimate change and wetland restoration. Regional wetland restoration planning should be directed against different climate scenarios in order to suppress methane emissions. PMID:27409586

  3. Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

    Holmes, Bruce J.

    2004-01-01

    Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness

  4. DEVELOPING THE 21ST-CENTURY SOCIAL STUDIES SKILLS THROUGH TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION

    Mohammad Imam FARISI

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration into SS learning is one of the learning innovations in the global-digital era, and powerfully supports the National Council for Social Studies (NCSS as stated in their visions: meaningful, powerful, value-based, challenging, and active. It also strongly supports the development of three core skills of the 21st-century, including learning and innovation skills; information, media and technology skills; life and career skills that developed in partnership with the Partnership Forum for 21st-Century Skills (P21. This paper examines and describes academics evolution toward a commitment and further developments in research; 21stcentury skills map for the SS; and the implications for developing teachers’ competences and teachers’ education curriculum.

  5. Health sector reforms for 21 st century healthcare

    Darshan Shankar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The form of the public health system in India is a three tiered pyramid-like structure consisting primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare services. The content of India′s health system is mono-cultural and based on western bio-medicine. Authors discuss need for health sector reforms in the wake of the fact that despite huge investment, the public health system is not delivering. Today, 70% of the population pays out of pocket for even primary healthcare. Innovation is the need of the hour. The Indian government has recognized eight systems of healthcare viz., Allopathy, Ayurveda, Siddha, Swa-rigpa, Unani, Naturopathy, Homeopathy, and Yoga. Allopathy receives 97% of the national health budget, and 3% is divided amongst the remaining seven systems. At present, skewed funding and poor integration denies the public of advantage of synergy and innovations arising out of the richness of India′s Medical Heritage. Health seeking behavior studies reveal that 40-70% of the population exercise pluralistic choices and seek health services for different needs, from different systems. For emergency and surgery, Allopathy is the first choice but for chronic and common ailments and for prevention and wellness help from the other seven systems is sought. Integrative healthcare appears to be the future framework for healthcare in the 21 st century. A long-term strategy involving radical changes in medical education, research, clinical practice, public health and the legal and regulatory framework is needed, to innovate India′s public health system and make it both integrative and participatory. India can be a world leader in the new emerging field of "integrative healthcare" because we have over the last century or so assimilated and achieved a reasonable degree of competence in bio-medical and life sciences and we possess an incredibly rich and varied medical heritage of our own.

  6. Health sector reforms for 21(st) century healthcare.

    Shankar, Darshan

    2015-01-01

    The form of the public health system in India is a three tiered pyramid-like structure consisting primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare services. The content of India's health system is mono-cultural and based on western bio-medicine. Authors discuss need for health sector reforms in the wake of the fact that despite huge investment, the public health system is not delivering. Today, 70% of the population pays out of pocket for even primary healthcare. Innovation is the need of the hour. The Indian government has recognized eight systems of healthcare viz., Allopathy, Ayurveda, Siddha, Swa-rigpa, Unani, Naturopathy, Homeopathy, and Yoga. Allopathy receives 97% of the national health budget, and 3% is divided amongst the remaining seven systems. At present, skewed funding and poor integration denies the public of advantage of synergy and innovations arising out of the richness of India's Medical Heritage. Health seeking behavior studies reveal that 40-70% of the population exercise pluralistic choices and seek health services for different needs, from different systems. For emergency and surgery, Allopathy is the first choice but for chronic and common ailments and for prevention and wellness help from the other seven systems is sought. Integrative healthcare appears to be the future framework for healthcare in the 21(st) century. A long-term strategy involving radical changes in medical education, research, clinical practice, public health and the legal and regulatory framework is needed, to innovate India's public health system and make it both integrative and participatory. India can be a world leader in the new emerging field of "integrative healthcare" because we have over the last century or so assimilated and achieved a reasonable degree of competence in bio-medical and life sciences and we possess an incredibly rich and varied medical heritage of our own. PMID:25878456

  7. Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

  8. Can Universities Survive the 21st Century?

    Summerlee, Alastair J. S.; Murray, Jacqueline

    2008-01-01

    Universities worldwide are facing a number of contradictory and competing pressures that range from under-funding to the very nature of universities and their roles in society. Pressures of the information explosion, the democratization of information through access to the Internet, and the advent of the knowledge-based economies have changed the…

  9. The 21st century chemistry journal

    Steven M. Bachrach

    1999-01-01

    Internet publication will radically alter how chemists will publish their research in the next century. In this article, we describe two fundamental changes: enhanced chemical publication which allows chemists to publish materials that cannot be published on paper and end-user customization which allows readers to read articles prepared to meet their specifications. These concepts have been implemented within the Internet Journal of Chemistry, a new journal designed to employ the latest techn...

  10. Leaning Towards Agile in 21~(st) Century

    D; Ashall; B; Parkinson

    2002-01-01

    Background: During the last fifteen years there ha s been an increased drive for organisations to reduce costs. From a production po int, this has often centred on lean manufacturing and JIT waste elimination proc esses. However, in 1991, the Iaccocca Institute Bethlehem P.A commissioned a re port specifically to analyse the changing nature of the marketplace. As a result , in the following year, the Agile Manufacturing Forum was initiated and the ter m 'agile or responsive manufacturing' was first intr...

  11. Ethical Consumerism in the 21st Century

    Stefura Gabriela

    2010-01-01

    In a world where the global economy has suffered a great deal of changes and has encountered many obstacles, consumers and companies seem less concerned about ethics in their behaviour. Ethical consumerism regards issues as environmental friendly consumerism, fair-trade, morality and honesty. The paper presents a theoretical background of ethical behaviour from two perspectives, followed by factors of influence, typologies of consumers and causes of unethical behaviour, offering an up-to-date...

  12. Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems

    Cochran, J.; Miller, M.; Zinaman, O.; Milligan, M.; Arent, D.; Palmintier, B.; O' Malley, M.; Mueller, S.; Lannoye, E.; Tuohy, A.; Kujala, B.; Sommer, M.; Holttinen, H.; Kiviluoma, J.; Soonee, S. K.

    2014-05-01

    Flexibility of operation--the ability of a power system to respond to change in demand and supply--is a characteristic of all power systems. Flexibility is especially prized in twenty-first century power systems, with higher levels of grid-connected variable renewable energy (primarily, wind and solar). This paper summarizes the analytic frameworks that have emerged to measure this characteristic and distills key principles of flexibility for policy makers.

  13. E-libraries in 21st century

    Kaul, AK

    2008-01-01

    This book has been devoted to the discussion and study of e-libraries; what they entail and what they mean for the new millennium. The book embarks on a full-scale discussion of what digital libraries project for the future, how they are currently in place and functioning and how they mark a new era in the evolution of libraries through civilization. The emphasis has been on the methodologies and functionings of e-libraries, their techniques and the equipment they employ, the effect and the changes they have brought about in the field of library science and how they may be liked in the future.

  14. Digital stereoscopic cinema: the 21st century

    Lipton, Lenny

    2008-02-01

    Over 1000 theaters in more than a dozen countries have been outfitted with digital projectors using the Texas Instruments DLP engine equipped to show field-sequential 3-D movies using the polarized method of image selection. Shuttering eyewear and advanced anaglyph products are also being deployed for image selection. Many studios are in production with stereoscopic films, and some have committed to producing their entire output of animated features in 3-D. This is a time of technology change for the motion picture industry.

  15. The challenge of 21st Century literacies

    Burnett, Cathy; Merchant, Guy

    2015-01-01

    In the second edition of their influential book on ‘New Literacies’, Lankshear & Knobel (2006) argued that engagement with these practices was ‘largely confined to learners’ lives in spaces outside of schools’ (p.30). That was nearly ten years ago, and in some respects very little has changed. Of course, in many classrooms there’s a lot more technology than there was, provision of smartboards desktops, laptops and portable devices is better, and there is a greater variety of software and hard...

  16. 21st Century Kinematics : The 2012 NSF Workshop

    2013-01-01

    21st Century Kinematics focuses on algebraic problems in the analysis and synthesis of mechanisms and robots, compliant mechanisms, cable-driven systems and protein kinematics. The specialist contributors provide the background for a series of presentations at the 2012 NSF Workshop. The text shows how the analysis and design of innovative mechanical systems yield increasingly complex systems of polynomials, characteristic of those systems. In doing so, takes advantage of increasingly sophisticated computational tools developed for numerical algebraic geometry and demonstrates the now routine derivation of polynomial systems dwarfing the landmark problems of even the recent past. The 21st Century Kinematics workshop echoes the NSF-supported 1963 Yale Mechanisms Teachers Conference that taught a generation of university educators the fundamental principles of kinematic theory. As such these proceedings will be provide admirable supporting theory for a graduate course in modern kinematics and should be of consid...

  17. Soldier communication net for the 21st century digitized battlespace

    Mu, Libo; Zhang, Yutian

    1999-07-01

    This paper present soldier communication net scheme, which survives and operates in the 21st century battlefield environment. First, it analyzes the features, the need, function of the soldier communication net on the 21st century battlefield environment. Secondly it presents a layered model of the soldier communication net, derived from the OSI theory, and discusses the design of the 3 layers, link layer, link controller and input/output applications layer. Thirdly, it present some key technical discussion concerning with the direct-sequence-spread-spectrum communication, code/decode and low power consumption. Finally, it gives the conclusion that spread spectrum time division system is the best scheme of soldier communication net.

  18. Technology Born Fictions for the Cities of 21st Century

    Mehmet Rıfat Akbulut

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Information and communication technologies will undoubtely be leading determinants of urban landscape in the 21st century. Until the present day, it was assumed that urban landscapes were being shaped by conventional factors such as demography, social and economical structure, transportion, infrastructure, building technologies etc. In spite of many speculative approaches, recent developments in information and communication technologies can offer us some clues which may go beyond mere speculation. The“intelligent city” which is based on “autonomous” and “intelligent” objects and agents promising novel solutions to urban problems. Mobile communication is also another promising domain to offer creative solutions to some cronical urban problems. All these novelties provide sufficient reasons to think about new urban structures based upon information technologies.This paper is an attempt to discuss probable effects of information technologies, as new dynamics to shape the urban environment and urban life of the 21st century.

  19. Music Pedagogy in the 21st Century

    Thüring Bräm

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article begins with considering what are the qualities you need in education to lead you to success? One important factor for moving from failure to success is (as also pointed out by a recent New York Time article on educational programs in general is the factor of 'grit’. The question of 'What is teaching about?’ is explored on the basis of three case histories: that of a middle aged music teacher, of a young performing pianist and of a cello master student. Finally, a brief historical overview of the last 50 years looks at the larger changes which have taken place in the teaching of young instrumental students. It discusses methods being used ranging from training virtuoso skills (Czerny/Cramer to applying insights about the cognitive development (Piaget and neuroscience to the increasingly wide range of research topics on music pedagogy today.

  20. Japan in the 21st Century Geopolitics

    Pío García

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1853, Japan was forced to come out of its feudal isolation and become a part of the worldwide business network. Its opening up did not mean surrendering to external powers, but rather becoming immersed in an imperialist struggle, from which it would come out defeated in 1945. Nevertheless, Japan’s prostration was temporary, given that in the post-war period it became an unconditional ally of the same super power that had blocked its military aspirations with two atomic bombs. The strategic agreement with the USA remained intact even after the Cold War had ended. Moreover, the verbal struggle and show of frce in the Senkaku / Diaoyutai Islands, in 2012, facilitated a return to power which was more akin to the dictates of Washington and its security plan in the Pacific political wing. Today, the confrontation in Northeast Asia presents the Korean-American-Japanese block, on one side, and the Sino-Russian-North Korean, on the other, on a fork which must be seen as a new bipolar scheme which will guarantee the regional strategic equilibrium. However, progressive changes are expected in the balance of power in both the Asian sector and the rest of the world, due to the impact of growing Chinese economic, political and military power on geopolitical agreements, including the Japanese-American one.

  1. 21st-Century talent spotting.

    Fernández-Aráoz, Claudio

    2014-06-01

    How can a person who seems so qualified for a position fail miserably in it? How can someone who clearly lacks relevant skills and experience succeed? The answer is potential, the ability to adapt and grow into increasingly complex roles and environments. For the past several decades, organizations have based their hiring decisions on competencies. But we have entered a new era of talent spotting. Geopolitics, business, industries, and jobs are changing so rapidly that it's impossible to predict the capabilities employees and leaders will need even a few years out. The question now is not whether people have the right skills; it's whether they have the potential to learn new ones. Research points to five markers of potential: a strong motivation to excel in the pursuit of challenging goals combined with the humility to put the group ahead of individual needs; an insatiable curiosity to explore new ideas and avenues; keen insight into connections that others don't see; a strong engagement with work and people; and the determination to overcome obstacles. Once organizations have hired true high potentials--a challenge, given the increasing scarcity of senior talent-and identified the ones they already have, it's crucial to focus on retaining them and on helping them live up to their potential by offering development opportunities that push them out of their comfort zones. PMID:25051855

  2. 78 FR 7387 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Renewal

    2013-02-01

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Renewal AGENCY: Agricultural Research Service, USDA. ACTION: Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture... Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). The Secretary of Agriculture has...

  3. The Role of the School District toward Preparing Students for the 21st Century

    Aguilar-Torres, Gloria

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation reflects the outcomes of a small school district that is successfully incorporating 21st century skills with the demands set forth by our current educational policy, No Child Left Behind. Considerations regarding globalization, future work force and work skills, definition of 21st century skills, supporting 21st century skills in…

  4. 76 FR 72003 - Proposed Collection, Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program Evaluation

    2011-11-21

    ... THE ARTS AND THE HUMANITIES Proposed Collection, Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program... proposed study of the impacts of the Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program. A copy of the... develop plans to conduct a program evaluation of the Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program...

  5. Geotectonic hypotheses at the beginning of the 21st century

    Strutinski, C.; Stan, R.; Puste, A.

    2003-01-01

    In this contribution to the volume honouring Ott Ch. Hilgenberg the main directions of thought in the field of geotectonics at the beginning of the 21st century are reviewed. However, because of its seminal importance for the geological thinking during most of the last century, the Wegener (continental drift) hypothesis is also included and opens the review. It is followed by the critical presentation of Plate tectonics and the hypotheses of Earth expansion, Surge tectonics and Wrench tectoni...

  6. DOE pollution prevention in the 21st century

    This document presents abstracts of the topics covered in the DOE Pollution Prevention in the 21st Century conference held July 9-11, 1996. These topics include: model facilities; Federal/NEPA/stake- holders; microchemistry; solvents and reduction; education and outreach; return on investments; energy management; decontamination and decommissioning; planning and regulations; environmental restoration; recycling; affirmative procurement in the executive branch; construction and demolition; materials exchange; and ISO 2000

  7. Antinomies of Capital in the 21st Century

    Estrada, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the 21st century" has been the most important book economy in recent times. Its aim integrates the debate theories of growth, income distribution, inequality and differences between the extremes income and income of the majority. The work predicts a slow increase in the share of capital income and inequality. His proposal for a global tax on capital is a way to evaluate such tendencies.

  8. ICT Supported Cooperative Learning - Towards Attaining 21st Century Skills

    Ramli Rohaini; Ramli Rohaiza

    2013-01-01

    Today?s job market demands not only sound technical skills from their potential employees. When employers talk about graduates being job ready, they really mean that the graduates possess the skills of the 21st century, which include ability to seek information and critically analyze situations, ability to challenge ideas, being innovative and being able to communicate ideas. In realizing these needs, education systems have long since started to look into incorporating activities that could h...

  9. Developing a 21st Century Global Library for Mathematics Research

    Sciences, Committee on Planning a Global Library of the Mathematical

    2014-01-01

    Developing a 21st Century Global Library for Mathematics Research discusses how information about what the mathematical literature contains can be formalized and made easier to express, encode, and explore. Many of the tools necessary to make this information system a reality will require much more than indexing and will instead depend on community input paired with machine learning, where mathematicians' expertise can fill the gaps of automatization. This report proposes the establishment of...

  10. DOE pollution prevention in the 21st century

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This document presents abstracts of the topics covered in the DOE Pollution Prevention in the 21st Century conference held July 9-11, 1996. These topics include: model facilities; Federal/NEPA/stake- holders; microchemistry; solvents and reduction; education and outreach; return on investments; energy management; decontamination and decommissioning; planning and regulations; environmental restoration; recycling; affirmative procurement in the executive branch; construction and demolition; materials exchange; and ISO 2000.

  11. Identifying 21st century STEM competencies using workplace data

    Jang, Hyewon

    2015-01-01

    Gaps between Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education and required workplace skills have been identified in industry, academia, and government. Educators acknowledge the need to reform STEM education to better prepare students for their future careers. We pursue this growing interest in the skills needed for STEM disciplines and ask whether frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education cover all of important STEM competencies. In this study, we identif...

  12. DOE pollution prevention in the 21st century. Proceedings

    This CD-ROM contains the proceedings from the DOE Pollution Prevention in the 21st Century Conference XII held July 9-11, 1996. Topics included model facilities, federal and NEPA stakeholders, microchemistry, source 4 solvents and reduction, education and outreach planning, return on investment, energy management, decontamination and decommissioning, planning and regulations, environmental restoration, solid waste, recycling, affirmative procurement in the executive branch, construction and demolition, international and ISO 14000, and poster sessions

  13. Zimbabwe-Russia Relations in the 21st Century

    Chigora, Percyslage; Goredema, Dorothy

    2010-01-01

    The 21st century has witnessed the intensification of relations between Zimbabwe and the East and other favorable states, Russia among them. Historically under the socialist rhetoric the two countries shared a common political ideology. Zimbabwe- Russia relations dates back to the era of the liberation struggle. The Soviet Union aided Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe People's Union and later the Patriotic Front which included Mugabe's Zimbabwe National African Union. The Soviet Union aided...

  14. Liberating services customers: The 21st century challenge

    Fisk, Raymond p.

    2011-01-01

    Liberating services customers is the business challenge of the 21st century. Many service organizations have organizational structures and processes that are better designed to control customers than to serve customers. Such structures and processes often result in poor services and sometimes they become disservices. Customers deserve to be liberated from such service structures and processes. Customers deserve better service! In this article, I examine four topics regarding liberating ser...

  15. Glaciers in 21st Century Himalayan Geopolitics

    Kargel, J. S.; Wessels, R.; Kieffer, H. H.

    2002-05-01

    Glaciers are ablating rapidly the world over. Nowhere are the rates of retreat and downwasting greater than in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. It is estimated that over the next century, 40,000 square kilometers of present glacier area in the HKH region will become ice free. Most of this area is in major valleys and the lowest glaciated mountain passes. The existence and characteristics of glaciers have security impacts, and rapidly changing HKH glaciers have broad strategic implications: (1) Glaciers supply much of the fresh water and hydroelectric power in South and Central Asia, and so glaciers are valuable resources. (2) Shared economic interests in water, hydroelectricity, flood hazards, and habitat preservation are a force for common cause and reasoned international relations. (3) Glaciers and their high mountains generally pose a natural barrier tending to isolate people. Historically, they have hindered trade and intercultural exchanges and have protected against aggression. This has further promoted an independent spirit of the region's many ethnic groups. (4) Although glaciers are generally incompatible with human development and habitation, many of the HKH region's glaciers and their mountains have become sanctuaries and transit routes for militants. Siachen Glacier in Kashmir has for 17 years been "the world's highest battlefield," with tens of thousands of troops deployed on both sides of the India/Pakistan line of control. In 1999, that conflict threatened to trigger all-out warfare, and perhaps nuclear warfare. Other recent terrorist and military action has taken place on glaciers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. As terrorists are forced from easily controlled territories, many may tend to migrate toward the highest ground, where definitive encounters may take place in severe alpine glacial environments. This should be a major concern in Nepali security planning, where an Army offensive is attempting to reign in an increasingly robust and brutal

  16. Research universities for the 21st century

    Gover, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huray, P.G. [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The `public outcomes` from research universities are educated students and research that extends the frontiers of knowledge. Measures of these `public outcomes` are inadequate to permit either research or education consumers to select research universities based on quantitative performance data. Research universities annually spend over $20 billion on research; 60% of these funds are provided by Federal sources. Federal funding for university research has recently grown at an annual rate near 6% during a time period when other performers of Federal research have experienced real funding cuts. Ten universities receive about 25% of the Federal funds spent on university research. Numerous studies of US research universities are reporting storm clouds. Concerns include balancing research and teaching, the narrow focus of engineering education, college costs, continuing education, and public funding of foreign student education. The absence of research on the `public outcomes` from university research results in opinion, politics, and mythology forming the basis of too many decisions. Therefore, the authors recommend studies of other nations` research universities, studies of various economic models of university research, analysis of the peer review process and how well it identifies the most capable research practitioners and at what cost, and studies of research university ownership of intellectual property that can lead to increased `public outcomes` from publicly-funded research performed by research universities. They advocate two practices that could increase the `public outcomes` from university research. These are the development of science roadmaps that link science research to `public outcomes` and `public outcome` metrics. Changes in the university research culture and expanded use of the Internet could also lead to increased `public outcomes`. They recommend the use of tax incentives to encourage companies to develop research partnerships with research

  17. Nanotechnology in the 21st century

    Nanotechnology is the manipulation structures in materials that are smaller than one billionth of a meter in size. Various successful advances in nanotechnology compelled an almost universal interest in the study of nanomaterials worldwide. The diminutive size of nanomaterials that are smaller than or comparable to a virus (20-450 nm), a protein (5-50 nm), or a gene (2nm wide and 10-100 nm long) pave the way to innumerable engineering and manipulations that triggered a multitude of applications in electronics, solar energy, optics, sports, security, food, agriculture, biology, construction, water, and medicine. The structural features and properties of nanomaterials that are in between those of single atoms/molecules and continuous bulk materials with at least one dimension in the nanometer range bring physical, chemical, electronic, and magnetic properties incomparable with any other materials. Various kinds of nanomaterials possess common as well as individual properties or group properties that allow their unique applications. The broad scope of nanotechnology can be thought of as a territory within which a range of disciplines converge, including chemistry, physics, materials science and engineering, medicine, biology, pharmacology, biotechnology, construction, automotive and aviation, microfabrication, systems architecture for computing, and many more. Nanotechnology holds promise to change the way most things have been designed and manufactured, including drugs, vaccines, fertilizers, TV screens, light fixtures, surgery, skin care products, tennis rackets, cars, paints, and objects unimaginable at this point. Advances in nanotechnology holds promise to repair the damage we have done to our environment, capturing carbon out of the air to return it back to the earth, or using it to build light, strong, diamond-like materials that nanotech-enabled human-scale technology will depend on. Nanotechnology is revolutionizing a wide array of consumer products and

  18. Economic impacts of climate change

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  19. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  20. Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

    Hadush K. Meresa

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The nature of drought conditions is estimated using a range of indices describing different aspects of drought events. Three drought indices are evaluated, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI, using observed hydroclimatic data and applying them to hydro-meteorological projections into the 21st century. The first two indices are evaluated using only meteorological variables and from this point of view, are better suited to meteorological drought projections than the third index, SRI, which is based on catchment discharge and represents hydrological drought. We assess information contained in those indices and their suitability to catchment scale climate projection drought assessment in ten selected Polish catchments, representing different hydro-climatic conditions, which are used as a case study. Projections of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature are obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative derived from seven climate models at a grid resolution of 12.5 km for the time period 1971–2100. Future runoff projections for the catchments are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV. The results of analyses of indices based on observations in the reference period show consistent estimates for most of the catchments. Hydro-meteorological climate model projections for three periods, including the reference period 1971–2000, and two 30-year periods, near-future 2021–2050 and far-future 2071–2100, are used to estimate changes of future drought conditions in the catchments studied. The results show a substantial variation of temporal drought patterns over the catchments and their dependence on projected precipitation and temperature variables and the type of indices applied. Of the three indices studied, only SPEI projections indicate drier conditions in the catchments in the far-future period. The other two indices

  1. Skills Needed to Survive and Thrive as a Scholar in the 21st Century: Information, Knowledge, and Publication Management

    Conceição, Simone C. O.

    2013-01-01

    The changes in the way our work is created, published, and disseminated have implications for our own professional development and require us to be aware of the necessary skills. In this article, I identify three important skills scholars need to have and tools to be effective, efficient, and productive scholars in the 21st century: information…

  2. Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario

    Möller, Marco; Navarro, Francisco; Martín-Español, Alba

    2016-04-01

    The high Arctic archipelagos are among the most strongly glacierized landscapes on earth apart from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Svalbard, one of these archipelagos, holds about 36,000 km2 of glaciers and ice caps and is the region that has shown the least negative mass balance of all the high Arctic regions. However, future projections suggest that the archipelago will experience an unprecedented -for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century. We here present a high-resolution modelling study of the future ice-mass evolution of 29 individual land-terminating glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago under an RCP 8.5 climate forcing, a rather pessimistic scenario that unfortunately seems to be becoming realistic. Our model calculates glacier mass balance and area/volume changes using a temperature-index approach in combination with a surface elevation change parameterization. The initial glacier topographies and volumes have been assessed from extensive ground-penetrating radar measurements carried out in recent years. The calculations are performed for the 21st century and are forced by statistically downscaled output of ten different global circulation models representing the RCP scenario 8.5. By a topography-based extrapolation of the simulation results to the entire archipelago we show that a complete loss of most of Svalbard's land-terminating glaciers and even a deglaciation of certain subregions of the archipelago might occur by the end of the 21st century. 98% of the land-terminating glaciers will have retreated to less than one tenth of their initial extent by 2100, resulting in a loss of 7392±2481 km2 of ice coverage.

  3. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Y. Hu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations show a stabilization or a weak increase of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a results of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4 models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050.

  4. Ozone recovery may enhance global warming in the 21st century

    Xia, Y.; Hu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Observations show a stabilization or weak increasing of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with global mean magnitudes of about 0.41 K for A1B scenario and about 0.2 K for A2 and B1 scenarios over the period of 2001-2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K, 0.08 K and 0.13 K for A1B, A2, and B1 over 2001-2050, respectively.

  5. Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

    Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

  6. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise

    Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.

    2010-01-01

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO2 aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m-2 per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m-2 reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40–80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6% Global World Product. PMID:20798055

  7. Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

    Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas. (letter)

  8. Designing Complex Systems for the 21st Century

    2011-01-01

    The design of complex “engineered” systems in the 21st century poses a set of common challenges, to name a few, the complexity and computational cost of system analysis, the heterogeneity of information at different levels of abstraction, the various sources of uncertainties, the multidisciplinary...... preference into enterprise-driven product design. Research in multiscale design presents the significant benefits of using computational design techniques for designing novel materials, new products, and new processes with exceptional system performance across diverse application domains such as material...

  9. Mexico and the 21st Century Power Partnership (Fact Sheet)

    2015-02-01

    The 21st Century Power Partnership's program in Mexico (21CPP Mexico) is one initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial, carried out in cooperation with government and local stakeholders, drawing upon an international community of power system expertise. The overall goal of this program is to support Mexico's power system transformation by accelerating the transition to a reliable, financially robust, and low-carbon system. 21CPP Mexico activities focus on achieving positive outcomes for all participants, especially addressing critical questions and challenges facing policymakers, regulators, and system operators. In support of this goal, 21CPP Mexico taps into deep networks of expertise and professional connections.

  10. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACING CHALLENGES IN 21ST CENTURY

    2001-01-01

    The 21st Century is the time for human seeking harmonizing with environment and carrying out sustainable development strategy. But sustainable development is facing many challenges. They may mainly include the follows: challenge comes from the contradiction between human and the earth, challenge of local benefit conflict to human common goal, challenge of competition to fairness, challenge of unbalanced development in regions and countries, challenge of diversity and challenge of calamity. Challenges are not only pressure, but also the motive force. Challenge exists, the motive force would never stop. Sustainable development was born in challenges, is developing in contradiction and will sustain in conflict.

  11. Higher Education Leadership: Challenge of the 21st Century

    Sutjipto Sutjipto

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In the 21 st century, higher education (HE will play a very crucial role; in spite of its limited resources, HE should be able to respond to the challenges caused by the very fast advancement of technology. For this purpose managers of HE should be professional, those who are prepared to become the managers, so that they reflect wide perspectives, good attitudes, and quality skills in managing the HE in such a competitive era. Higher education leadership is expected to make use of the system and opportunity to improve its performance

  12. Is the Partner the Don Quixote of the 21st Century Corporate World?

    Bévort, Frans; Poulfelt, Flemming

    2015-01-01

    for change. This raises the question of whether the Partner ownership and management model is a relic of the past - and the partner a Don Quixote-figure of the 21st century corporate world? Based on an ethnographic study of a PSF in Denmark, and data from other sources, the paper analyzes the changing...... the future of the partner role in complex organizations. Finally, the paper proposes that professional partnership needs to find a ' new balance' between the traditional professional logic of the partners and the still more influential logic of bureaucracy of the modern complex organization to...

  13. Why Does the Stratosphere Get Moister During the 21st Century?

    Dessler, A.E.; Schoberl, M. R.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Oman, L.; Douglass, A. R.

    2014-01-01

    All chemistry-climate models predict that 1) the TTL warms during the 21st century and 2) that the humidity of air entering the stratosphere increases over this same period. It seems reasonable to conclude that the former causes the latter, but to our knowledge no one has actually tested that. We do so here by analyzing one chemistry-climate model in detail (the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model, GEOSCCM) and find that the warming of the TTL explains only a fraction of the increase in humidity of air entering the stratosphere. We do this by using meteorological fields from the model to drive a trajectory model, which estimates the water vapor variations in response to the large-scale temperature field. Water vapor simulated by the trajectory model increases by about one quarter of the amount it increases in the GEOSCCM. We conclude that, over the 21st century, an increase in the flux of ice through the TTL is responsible for most of the increase in the humidity of air entering the stratosphere in this model.

  14. Transforming Pedagogies:
Integrating 21st Century Skills And Web 2.0 Technology

    Shelia Y. TUCKER

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available According to (P21, Partnership for 21st Century Skills (n.d., unless the gap is bridged between how students learn and how they live, today’s education system will face irrelevance. The way people work and live has been transformed by demographic, economic, political, technological, and informational forces. Schools must adapt to these changing conditions in order to thrive. Students must be equipped to live in a multifaceted, multitasking, technology-driven world. And, regardless of their economic background, we must also ensure that all students have equal access to this new technological world. Collaborative learning theory which is connected to constructivism pedagogy requires students to work together to solve problems. Students need lifelong learning skills i.e., communication and information skills, problem-solving and thinking skills, and interpersonal and self-directional skills. The challenge becomes to deliberately incorporate learning skills into classrooms strategically and broadly. In this digital age, students must learn to use tools essential to everyday life and workplace productivity. They live in a world of almost unlimited streams of profound information, difficult choices and enormous opportunity. Teachers can create a 21st century context for learning by taking students out into the world, by bringing the world into the classroom, and by creating opportunities for students to collaboratively interact with each other (Learning for the, n.d.. One way of accomplishing this task is by employing the use of the Internet to connect Web 2.0 technology and 21st century skills. These skills are essential due to increased global competition, rising workforce capabilities, and accelerated technological change (Learning for the, n.d..

  15. Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

    Willis, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

  16. The Ways to Strengthen Democracy in 21st Century

    shazia kiyani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the weaknesses of different democracies of the world in 21st century and suggests some solutions to them. Among the living democracies of the world all of them are not exemplary and among the mediocre ones too all of them are not too bad. Some of the countries are justifying with the splendid principle of democracy and leaving the examples of good governance, self reliance, supremacy of Law and Rule of Equality for the rest of the world. On the other hand some of the countries are still striving hard to establish or retrieve the democracy. We need an ideal of democracy which renders it possible to access to what degree a world government serving a sovereign world parliament could be democratic and independent in order to be prosperous and capable of standing on its own feet in the 21st century. A strong democratic system of government is the only way out for the self reliance and stability of the country. This paper is aimed to identify the problems faced by today’s democratic countries and their solution.

  17. Transforming Epidemiology for 21st Century Medicine and Public Health

    Khoury, Muin J [National Institutes of Health; Lam, Tram Kim [National Institutes of Health; Ioannidis, John [Stanford University; Hartge, Patricia [National Institutes of Health; Spitz, Margaret R. [Baylor College of Medicine, Huston; Buring, Julie E. [Brigham and Women' s Hospital; Chanock, Stephen J. [National Institutes of Health; Tourassi, Georgia [ORNL; Zauber, Ann [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Schully, Sheri D [National Institutes of Health

    2013-01-01

    n 2012, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) engaged the scientific community to provide a vision for cancer epidemiology in the 21st century. Eight overarching thematic recommendations, with proposed corresponding actions for consideration by funding agencies, professional societies, and the research community emerged from the collective intellectual discourse. The themes are (i) extending the reach of epidemiology beyond discovery and etiologic research to include multilevel analysis, intervention evaluation, implementation, and outcomes research; (ii) transforming the practice of epidemiology by moving toward more access and sharing of protocols, data, metadata, and specimens to foster collaboration, to ensure reproducibility and replication, and accelerate translation; (iii) expanding cohort studies to collect exposure, clinical, and other information across the life course and examining multiple health-related endpoints; (iv) developing and validating reliable methods and technologies to quantify exposures and outcomes on a massive scale, and to assess concomitantly the role of multiple factors in complex diseases; (v) integrating big data science into the practice of epidemiology; (vi) expanding knowledge integration to drive research, policy, and practice; (vii) transforming training of 21st century epidemiologists to address interdisciplinary and translational research; and (viii) optimizing the use of resources and infrastructure for epidemiologic studies. These recommendations can transform cancer epidemiology and the field of epidemiology, in general, by enhancing transparency, interdisciplinary collaboration, and strategic applications of new technologies. They should lay a strong scientific foundation for accelerated translation of scientific discoveries into individual and population health benefits.

  18. Identifying 21st Century STEM Competencies Using Workplace Data

    Jang, Hyewon

    2016-04-01

    Gaps between science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education and required workplace skills have been identified in industry, academia, and government. Educators acknowledge the need to reform STEM education to better prepare students for their future careers. We pursue this growing interest in the skills needed for STEM disciplines and ask whether frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education cover all of important STEM competencies. In this study, we identify important STEM competencies and evaluate the relevance of current frameworks applied in education using the standardized job-specific database operated and maintained by the US Department of Labor. Our analysis of the importance of 109 skills, types of knowledge and work activities, revealed 18 skills, seven categories of knowledge, and 27 work activities important for STEM workers. We investigate the perspectives of STEM and non-STEM job incumbents, comparing the importance of each skill, knowledge, and work activity for the two groups. We aimed to condense dimensions of the 52 key areas by categorizing them according to the Katz and Kahn (1978) framework and testing for inter-rater reliability. Our findings show frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education do not encompass all important STEM competencies. Implications for STEM education programs are discussed, including how they can bridge gaps between education and important workplace competencies.

  19. Translating Big Data into Big Climate Ideas: Communicating Future Climate Scenarios to Increase Interdisciplinary Engagement.

    Climate change has emerged as the significant environmental challenge of the 21st century. Therefore, understanding our changing world has forced researchers from many different fields of science to join together to tackle complicated research questions. The climate change resear...

  20. Climate change: An inconvenient maybe

    Edwards, Gonzalo

    2008-01-01

    The subject of Climate Change is here to stay for at least the rest of the 21st century. The extent to which climate change can be expected; the importance in its determination of anthropogenic factors, relative to natural causes; its impact on world agriculture, migration patterns and economic growth; the costs involved and the best practices to mitigate the consequences, are all still subject to great controversy and remain in the realm of the speculative, in spite of specific matters where...

  1. Tuberculosis: a new vision for the 21st century.

    Small, Peter M

    2009-11-01

    accelerate the development of new tools for the future. Simple improvements in tuberculosis control, such as expanding the use of under-utilized technologies, can have enormous impact. Fixed-dose combinations have existed for over 25 years, and could help ensure that more patients complete treatment; yet globally, only 15 percent of patients are using them. We also need new drugs, vaccines and diagnostics, as well as innovations in tuberculosis control and case management. Better diagnostics are already available, and new drugs and vaccines are coming. But more commitment and resources are needed. Better prevention and control of tuberculosis is the surest way to stop drug resistance. To ensure that drug resistance does not pose a wider threat, we need to employ a number of equally important approaches. These include improved basic tuberculosis control, increased use of underutilized technologies such as fixed-dose combinations, and new technologies and health systems innovations. At the same time, we should expand access to M/XDR-TB treatment and diagnostics for those who already have drug resistant tuberculosis. Some of the most innovative solutions can come from the private sector and through partnerships. An untapped market of two billion people carries the tuberculosis bacterium. Since tuberculosis requires a comprehensive approach, companies should also explore opportunities to work together and pool complementary technologies to ensure new tools are used most effectively. Japan is poised to play a leading role in the discovery, development and delivery of tuberculosis solutions in the 21st century. PMID:19999594

  2. 21st Century Science for Sustainable Development in the Developing World

    Sachs, J. D.

    2004-12-01

    Meeting the Millennium Development Goals and, ultimately, eradicating extreme poverty, engages experts from many academic disciplines and different parts of society- climatologists, earth engineers, ecologists, economists, public health specialists, social activists, and politicians. We are in the midst of exciting technological and scientific breakthroughs that make it realistic to end extreme poverty by 2025. Indeed, the experiences of China and India in recent years have illustrated that technology can accelerate economic development to impressively high rates. India, which boasts growth rates of nearly 8% over the past decade, may end hunger among its population as early as 2007, thanks in large part to the Green Revolution underway there. The work of agronomists and economists are not unrelated - the science behind soil nutrients, water, and germplasm all fuel sustainable development. Science and technology are important ingredients for growth, and they are improving at an ever-increasing rate. When applied for the sake of human benefit, we have a tool of unprecedented strength. But the developing world has also reached a point of unprecedented environmental stress. Biodiversity faces serious threats, as do water supplies, forests, and the atmosphere. Developing and developed nations continue to grapple with the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. We must maintain our scientific investigations and analysis while ensuring that development policy addresses long-term environmental needs. The energy sector is one obvious example. Several developing countries, China and India included, harbor vast coal deposits. Fueling development with coal will drastically exacerbate the ongoing spiral of man-made climate change. My presentation will focus on the contributions that 21st century science can make-indeed, must make-to ensure that sustainable development occurs and we meet the Millennium Challenge of cutting extreme poverty in half by 2015.

  3. The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach for 21st Century Ocean Health and International Sustainable Development

    Honey, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The global coastal ocean and watersheds are divided into 66 Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which encompass regions from river basins, estuaries, and coasts to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and margins of major currents. Approximately 80% of global fisheries catch comes from LME waters. Ecosystem goods and services from LMEs contribute an estimated US 18-25 trillion dollars annually to the global economy in market and non-market value. The critical importance of these large-scale systems, however, is threatened by human populations and pressures, including climate change. Fortunately, there is pragmatic reason for optimism. Interdisciplinary frameworks exist, such as the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) approach for adaptive management that can integrate both nature-centric and human-centric views into ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management practices for long-term sustainability. Originally proposed almost 30 years ago, the LME approach rests on five modules are: (i) productivity, (ii) fish and fisheries, (iii) pollution and ecosystem health, (iv) socioeconomics, and (v) governance for iterative adaptive management at a large, international scale of 200,000 km2 or greater. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank, and United Nations agencies recognize and support the LME approach—as evidenced by over 3.15 billion in financial assistance to date for LME projects. This year of 2014 is an exciting milestone in LME history, after 20 years of the United Nations and GEF organizations adopting LMEs as a unit for ecosystem-based approaches to management. The LME approach, however, is not perfect. Nor is it immutable. Similar to the adaptive management framework it propones, the LME approach itself must adapt to new and emerging 21st Century technologies, science, and realities. The LME approach must further consider socioeconomics and governance. Within the socioeconomics module alone, several trillion-dollar opportunities exist

  4. A Future State for NASA Laboratories - Working in the 21st Century

    Kegelman, Jerome T.; Harris, Charles E.; Antcliff, Richard R.; Bushnell, Dennis M.; Dwoyer, Douglas L.

    2009-01-01

    The name "21 st Century Laboratory" is an emerging concept of how NASA (and the world) will conduct research in the very near future. Our approach is to carefully plan for significant technological changes in products, organization, and society. The NASA mission can be the beneficiary of these changes, provided the Agency prepares for the role of 21st Century laboratories in research and technology development and its deployment in this new age. It has been clear for some time now that the technology revolutions, technology "mega-trends" that we are in the midst of now, all have a common element centered around advanced computational modeling of small scale physics. Whether it is nano technology, bio technology or advanced computational technology, all of these megatrends are converging on science at the very small scale where it is profoundly important to consider the quantum effects at play with physics at that scale. Whether it is the bio-technology creation of "nanites" designed to mimic our immune system or the creation of nanoscale infotechnology devices, allowing an order of magnitude increase in computational capability, all involve quantum physics that serves as the heart of these revolutionary changes.

  5. Death in Design in the 21st Century

    Sabra, Jakob Borrits

    each constitute parts of an intricately weaved and interrelated network of practices dealing with death, grief and memorialization. Design pioneering company IDEO'S recent failed attempt to 'redesign death' is an example of how delicate and difficult it is to work with material and symbolic 'death......The digital spheres of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Social Network Services (SNS) are influencing 21st. century death. Today the dying and the bereaved attend mourning and remembrance both online and offline, and combined, cemeteries, web memorials and social network sites...... design'. Urns, coffins, graves, cemeteries, memorials, monuments, websites and services, whether cut in stone or made of bits, are all influenced by the discourses of economics, power, technology and culture. Furthermore many end-users do not recognize the need or potential of a certain death service...

  6. Radiation processing technology in the 21st century

    The address discusses the following issue - towards the 21st century, we are required more and more to create innovative technologies to solve problems about environment, energy, natural resources, materials, health care, food and others which are the great concern to human beings. For the radiation processing technology to survive, it will be required to provide answers to those problems. The use of radiation of polymer modification will remain as an important field of the radiation application. Some other promising polymer processing can be cited as those which will grow in near future; for environment technology - polymeric fibers grafted with ion exchange residues to remove toxic metals for cleaning industrial waste water; For health care technology - crosslinked polyvinylalcohol hydrogel for wound dressing (irradiation of hydrogel); For high performance materials technology - less toxic crosslinked natural rubber latex (irradiation of emulsion), abrasion resistant crosslinked PTFE (irradiation at high temperature)

  7. YANJI CITY ORIENTATION AND INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 21ST CENTURY

    2001-01-01

    Yanji is the biggest China Korean inhabited city. Based on a newly finished research project, this paper discusses strategic problems about Yanji towards 21st century. The general point of the authors is that at the beginning of new century,Yanji will play a more important role in Tumen River Delta development, regional economy cooperation in Korea Peninsula as well as Northeast Asia, and it will develop to be an important central city in this area. This paper puts forwards Yanji City′s developing goal, urban nature, and urban size, probes its regional orientation, and further probes how to establish The Yanji Urban Economy Cooperation Zone. The authors think that Yanji should depend on its intellect resources and other characteristic resources. Industry development need to pay much attention to modern agriculture, tertiary industry (especially commerce, trade and tourism) and dominant industries, and high-tech industry must give a special care, in order to establish a light industrial structure.

  8. Coal research strategies for the 21st century

    This paper provides a personal view of the research strategies which will be necessary to develop the new generations of equipment and new concepts and processes which will be required by the coal industry into the 21st century. It is claimed that the economics of coal supply and availability will continue to ensure that coal retains a very significant role as long as it is not targeted by taxes, regulation or penalties which are specifically intended to take it out of contention. In the author opinion, the coal industry needs to show that coal can be produced safely and with acceptable environmental impacts for future land use. These issues of community concern impact on all coal mining companies, and the need is a common one to maintain industry wide collaborative support for research to provide the technological innovation which will be an essential part of their solutions

  9. Infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals in the 21st century

    Infection continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Nuclear medicine has an important role in aiding the diagnosis of particularly deep-seated infections such as abscesses, osteomyelitis, septic arthritis, endocarditis, and infections of prosthetic devices. Established techniques such as radiolabelled leucocytes are sensitive and specific for inflammation but do not distinguish between infective and non-infective inflammation. The challenge for Nuclear Medicine in infection imaging in the 21st century is to build on the recent trend towards the development of more infection specific radiopharmaceuticals, such as radiolabelled anti-infectives (e.g. 99 m Tc ciprofloxacin). In addition to aiding early diagnosis of infection, through serial imaging these agents might prove very useful in monitoring the response to and determining the optimum duration of anti-infective therapy. This article reviews the current approach to infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals nd the future direction it might take. (author)

  10. Identifying 21st century STEM competencies using workplace data

    Jang, Hyewon

    2015-01-01

    Gaps between Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education and required workplace skills have been identified in industry, academia, and government. Educators acknowledge the need to reform STEM education to better prepare students for their future careers. We pursue this growing interest in the skills needed for STEM disciplines and ask whether frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education cover all of important STEM competencies. In this study, we identify important STEM competencies and evaluate the relevance of current frameworks applied in education using the standardized job-specific database operated and maintained by the United States Department of Labor. Our analysis of the importance of 109 skills, types of knowledge and work activities, revealed 18 skills, seven categories of knowledge, and 27 work activities important for STEM workers. We investigate the perspectives of STEM and non-STEM job incumbents, comparing the importance of each skill, knowledge, and work...

  11. Prospects for competitive nuclear power into the 21st century

    Nuclear power stations committed today will be commissioned in the mid- to late-1990s and will operate for most of their lives in the 21st century. Utilities considering the nuclear option for new increments of capacity are, therefore, required to make judgements now on the competitiveness of nuclear plants well beyond the turn of the century. Reactors committed for mid-1990 startup could have a lifetime competitive cost advantage of 20% to 80% over coal-fired plants in most NEA areas studied except for some parts of North America where low cost coal is available. Nuclear plants would retain an economic advantage in most countries even if they were to be used for load-following with resultant lifetime capacity (load) factors as low as about 60% (or even lower in many countries). Uranium resources are sufficiently large that fuel supply should not constrain nuclear power development well into the 21st century, as long as uranium prices provide a market incentive for continued exploration and mine development. Uranium prices seem unlikely to rise to a level which would remove nuclear's advantage within the next several decades. There is apparently no technological reason why the ''back-end'' of the fuel cycle (spent fuel transportation, storage, reprocessing and disposal of high level waste) and decommissioning of reactors should constrain further deployment of nuclear power. While the costs of these activities appear high in absolute terms, they will be relatively low per unit of electricity generated. Thus, even though there remain uncertainties regarding these future costs, they should have little impact on electricity consumers. (author)

  12. A Survey on Adaptation to Climate Change

    Dinda, Soumyananda

    2015-01-01

    In this 21st century, human civilization faces the toughest challenge to tackle the climate change for sustainable development. Civil society should adopt the climate change and reduce vulnerability for non-declining welfare. This paper reviews major papers on adaptation to climate change and provides an overview on the climate change and developing adaptive mechanism across the globe. Following major important articles this study provides clarity of the concept of adaptation, types of adapta...

  13. The molecularization of identity: science and subjectivity in the 21st century.

    McGONIGLE, Ian Vincent; Benjamin, Ruha

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in biological and computational technologies are changing the way different social groups imagine race, gender, kinship, citizenship and disease risk. Existing taxonomies are being displaced or reconfigured, impacting the ways in which people are governed, how lives are lived, how groups are known and how power is exercised. Herein we report on a two-day international symposium that we co-organized, titled 'The molecularization of identity: science and subjectivity in the 21st century,' that was held on 29-30 April 2016 at the Program on Science, Technology and Society, at Harvard University. The symposium drew upon the tools and expertise from multiple disciplines and diverse geographical regions and consisted of 24 original research presentations and an interdisciplinary roundtable. Specific attention was paid to the bioethical, material and lived dimensions of recent developments in molecular technologies, and discussions interrogated the complex ways in which the 'molecular realm' is an emerging site for constituting human identities in the 21st century. Herein we summarize some of the key findings of the conference and raise three further issues for practitioners and researchers to consider in relation to the broader impact of genetics research. Namely: transnational governance of emerging biotechnologies; representation of different interest groups in policy decisions; and rights of access to emerging technologies. PMID:27376979

  14. Creating a 21st Century Community through the Teacher Research Experience (Invited)

    Wilkening, E.; Beine, H. J.

    2009-12-01

    In the spring of 2009, I participated in PolarTREC - Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating, a Teacher Research Experience (TRE) funded by the National Science Foundation and managed by the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States. I assisted in hands-on research being performed by scientists with OASIS (Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snowpack) during their field campaign in Barrow, Alaska. Although I was in the field for only 3 weeks, it was merely a beginning to a transformation that took place not only in me, but also among all of those involved. The PolarTREC program embodies the principles fundamental to the 21st Century skill-set that we want our students to possess. The job market is changing for graduates, and education is striving to provide students with the skills necessary to thrive in the future. To ensure the success of students the International Society for Technology Education (ISTE) has defined 21st Century Skills. They are incorporated into many educational standards (such as the Arizona Educational Technology Standards) and they are practiced by the teachers, researchers, students and the PolarTREC community. They are: Creativity and Innovation Communication and Collaboration Research and Information Literacy Critical Thinking, Problem Solving, and Decision Making Digital Citizenship Technology Operations and Concepts

  15. Vision of energy supply in the 21st century: managing the global bonfire

    Humans have lit a vast carbon-based bonfire that has fueled the world's economic and industrial development for the last 200 years. In that time, the impact of emissions into the atmosphere has become measurable, and has triggered debates on global warming and climate change as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gases. Growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use all the energy sources available to us in the 21st Century, to successfully manage and preserve the environment. Consistent with the need for continued human and economic growth and reduced emissions, we must use non-carbon sources for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels. Nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extending energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide an economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation. To illustrate these impacts we adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. We estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon based energy sources on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the 21st Century. To stabilize CO2 concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing about 30-40% of all the noncarbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century, and still keep the people of the world and their economic future moving and growing. The key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants becomes clear, whether or not the current worldwide value (∼7-10%) or a growing share of the energy market is assumed. We note that in the future, nuclear

  16. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

    Hodson, Daniel L. R.; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; West, Alex; Ridley, Jeff; Hawkins, Ed; Hewitt, Helene T.

    2013-01-01

    Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single mode...

  17. The Mathematical Formatting of Climate Change: Critical Mathematics Education and Post-Normal Science

    Barwell, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st Century. Mathematics is involved at every level of understanding climate change, including the description, prediction and communication of climate change. As a highly complex issue, climate change is an example of "post-normal" science -- it is urgent, complex and involves a…

  18. Predicting the future distribution of Polar Bear Habitat in the polar basin from resource selection functions applied to 21st century general circulation model projections of sea ice

    Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, Trent L.

    2007-01-01

    Predictions of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat distribution in the Arctic polar basin during the 21st century were developed to help understand the likely consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite-collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, coastlines, and sea ice) collected between 1985–1995 to build habitat use models called Resource Selection Functions (RSF). The RSFs described habitats polar bears preferred in each of four seasons: summer (ice minimum), autumn (growth), winter (ice maximum) and spring (melt). When applied to the model source data and to independent data (1996–2006), the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st century sea ice concentration predicted by 10 general circulation models (GCM) described in the International Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The 10 GCMs we used had high concordance between their simulations of 20th century summer sea ice extent and the actual ice extent derived from passive microwave satellite observations. Predictions of the amount and rate of change in polar bear habitat varied among GCMs, but all GCMs predicted net habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Projected losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the peripheral seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi Sea and Barents Sea. Losses were least in high-latitude regions where RSFs predicted an initial increase in optimal habitat followed by a modest decline. The largest seasonal reductions in habitat were predicted for spring and summer. Average area of optimal polar bear habitat during summer in the polar basin declined from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985–1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model average of 0.58 million km2 in 2045–2054 (-42% change), 0.36 million km2 in 2070–2079 (-64% change), and 0

  19. Leading the 21st-century academic library successful strategies for envisioning and realizing preferred futures

    Eden, Bradford Lee

    2015-01-01

    Leading the 21st Century Academic Library: Successful Strategies for Envisioning and Realizing Preferred Futures will explore the new roles and directions academic libraries are taking in the 21st century as a consequence of visionary leadership in exploring diverse futures.

  20. Assessing 21st Century Skills: A Guide to Evaluating Mastery and Authentic Learning

    Greenstein, Laura

    2012-01-01

    The Common Core State Standards clearly define the skills students need for success in college and the 21st century workplace. The question is, how can you measure student mastery of skills like creativity, problem solving, and use of technology? Laura Greenstein demonstrates how teachers can teach and assess 21st century skills using authentic…

  1. Challenges to Learning and Schooling in the Digital Networked World of the 21st Century

    Voogt, J.; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, giving special attention to digital literacy as one…

  2. 77 FR 46681 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Notice of Meeting

    2012-08-06

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Notice of Meeting... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting... the biotechnology industry, the organic food industry, farming communities, the seed industry,...

  3. 77 FR 26725 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting

    2012-05-07

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting AGENCY... Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting dates are May 29-30, 2012, 8:30 a.m. to 5... consists of members representing the biotechnology industry, the organic food industry, farming...

  4. 77 FR 11064 - Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting

    2012-02-24

    ... Agricultural Research Service Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture... Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting dates are March 5-6, 2012..., 2012. The AC21 consists of members representing the biotechnology industry, the organic food...

  5. Intelligent manufacture adapts to agile manufacture production mode in the 21st century

    Li Xurong

    2003-01-01

    The paper describes the characteristics of the intelligent manufacturing system and production mode in the21st century in the information age, therefore draws a conclusion that the intelligent manufacturing system adapts to agilemanufacture (AM for short) production mode in the 21 st century.

  6. 77 FR 27253 - Proposed Collection, Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program Evaluation

    2012-05-09

    ... (FR vol. 76, no. 224, pgs. 72003-72004). No comments were received. Agency: Institute of Museum and... THE ARTS AND THE HUMANITIES Proposed Collection, Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian Grant Program... improvements to the Laura Bush 21st Century Librarian (LB21) Grant Program. The information gathered...

  7. Challenges to learning and schooling in the digital networked world of the 21st century

    Voogt, J.M.; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, gi

  8. Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities

    Bellotti, Francesco; Bottino, Rosa Maria; Nadolski, Rob; Fernández Manjón, Baltasar

    2012-01-01

    Bellotti, F., Bottino, R. M., Nadolski, R. J., & Fernández Manjón, B. (2012, 4-6 July). Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities. Presentation at the Workshop Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities, 12th IE

  9. Kinesiology Faculty for the 21st Century: Steping into the Future

    DePauw, Karen P.

    2014-01-01

    Kinesiology faculty for the 21st century was one of the featured strands of the 2014 NAKHE Collaborative Congress: "STEPS into the future: Exploring opportunities and facing the challenges for the 21st century." Following a brief introduction delegates were assigned to discussion groups with conversations focused around six…

  10. Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality

    Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrel A.

    2009-01-01

    Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due ...

  11. Changes in the distribution of cold waves in France in the middle and end of the 21st century with IPSL-CM5 and CNRM-CM5 models

    Parey, S.; Hoang, T. T. H.

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, a stochastic model is used to simulate daily minimum temperature time series coming from observations and two CMIP5 climate models (IPSL-CM5A-MR and CNRM-CM5) in order to analyze the changes in cold wave number and proportions under future climate conditions. The stochastic model allows computing 100 temperature time series for each different source (observation or climate model), and for 22 locations in France, which enables inferring the statistical significance of the changes. Two future time periods, near (around 2010-2060) and far future (around 2050-2100), and two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered, while 3 different thresholds are used to identify cold waves: 0 °C and the 10th and 5th percentiles of observed wintertime (December-January-February) daily minimum temperature distribution. The results show that both models project a significantly lower number of cold waves in the future, all durations considered, but the changes mainly concern the proportion of the longest cold waves (10 days and more). The decreases are higher with IPSL-CM5A-MR than with CNRM-CM5. The main driver of this change is the decreasing frequency of the observation based thresholds in the future, which is higher for IPSL-CM5-MR model because the impact of a higher mean is enhanced by a decrease in the variance.

  12. Very Large Array Retooling for 21st-Century Science

    2008-02-01

    An international project to make the world's most productive ground-based telescope 10 times more capable has reached its halfway mark and is on schedule to provide astronomers with an extremely powerful new tool for exploring the Universe. The National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope now has half of its giant, 230-ton dish antennas converted to use new, state-of-the-art digital electronics to replace analog equipment that has served since the facility's construction during the 1970s. VLA and Radio Galaxy VLA Antennas Getting Modern Electronics To Meet New Scientific Challenges CREDIT: NRAO/AUI/NSF Click on image for more information, higher-resolution files "We're taking a facility that has made landmark discoveries in astronomy for three decades and making it 10 times more powerful, at a cost that's a fraction of its total value, by replacing outdated technology with modern equipment," said Mark McKinnon, project manager for the Expanded VLA (EVLA). Rick Perley, EVLA project scientist, added: "When completed in 2012, the EVLA will be 10 times more sensitive, cover more frequencies, and provide far greater analysis capabilities than the current VLA. In addition, it will be much simpler to use, making its power available to a wider range of scientists." The EVLA will give scientists new power and flexibility to meet the numerous challenges of 21st-Century astrophysics. The increased sensitivity will reveal the earliest epochs of galaxy formation, back to within a billion years of the Big Bang, or 93 percent of the look-back time to the beginning of the Universe. It will have the resolution to peer deep into the dustiest star-forming clouds, imaging protoplanetary disks around young stars on scales approaching that of the formation of terrestrial planets. The EVLA will provide unique capabilities to study magnetic fields in the Universe, to image regions near massive black holes, and to systematically track changes in transient objects

  13. Supporting food security in the 21st century through resource-conserving increases in agricultural production

    Uphoff Norman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Green Revolution was accomplished under a set of demographic, economic, climatic and other conditions in the 20th century that have been changing and will surely be different and more difficult in the decades ahead. The suitability and sustainability of any given agricultural technology depends on factors like resource availability and productivity, energy costs, and environmental constraints. The achievements of Green Revolution technologies in the 1960s and 1970s came at a critical time of impending food shortages, and the world’s people would be worse off without them. However, the rate of yield improvement for cereal production has been slowing since the mid-1980s. Looking ahead at the foreseeable circumstances under which 21st century agricultural producers must try to assure food security, there will be need for technologies that are less dependent on resources that are becoming relatively scarcer, like arable land and water, or becoming relatively more costly, like energy and petrochemical-based inputs. This paper considers agroecologically-based innovations that reduce farmers’ dependence on external inputs, relying more on endogenous processes and existing potentials in plants and soil systems. Such resource-conserving production represents a different approach to meeting food security goals. While these innovations are not yet fully understood and are still being researched, there are good agronomic reasons to account for their effectiveness, and scientific validations are accumulating. Enough successes have been recorded from making changes in the management of plants, soil, water and nutrients that more attention from researchers, policy-makers and practitioners is warranted, especially given the need to adapt to, and to mitigate the effects of, climate change. The same agroecological concepts and management methods that are enhancing factor productivity in rice production are giving similar results with other crops

  14. On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century

    Aschmann, J.; Burrows, J. P.; Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Thompson, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry-transport-model simulations (1980-2013) to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Aside from a high-bias between 1985-1990, our model is able to reproduce the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record. A regression analysis identifies a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002, in qualitative agreement with the observations. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with structural changes in the vertical transport, represented in the model by diabatic heating rates taken from the reanalysis product Era-Interim. These changes lead to a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling between 70-30 hPa and a southward shift of the tropical pipe at 30 and 100 hPa during the past decade, which appear to be the primary causes for the observed trend-change in ozone.

  15. Daily Temperature Records in a Warming Climate

    Meehl, G. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    The ratio of daily record high maximum temperatures to daily record low minimum temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century was about 2 to 1. Previous model simulations also showed a comparable ratio, with projections of an increase in that ratio in the 21st century. Here we relate record highs and record lows to changing surface conditions in 1 degree and 0.5 degree resolution global coupled climate models for 20th and 21st century climate to address the issue of model resolution in simulating past and future changes of temperature extremes as represented by daily record highs and lows.

  16. World energy strategies into the 21st century

    In mid-1990s, tighter oil supply and firmer and higher price will be projected due to the declining production in non-OPEC countries. The OPEC members have the oil production capacity of 30 million barrels a day, but last year, OPEC produced 17 million barrels a day. World oil demand was down about 600,000 barrels a day due primarily to the continued substitution with natural gas, coal and nuclear power. The conclusion of the UK coal strike also contributed to the drop of the demand for residual fuel oil. Economic growth was too sluggish to offset the substitution effect. The crude oil production from non-OPEC sources has increased, but low price will reverse the trend of non-OPEC production. Energy supply will be ample to meet the projected demand through the next decade. The annual growth rate of less than 2 % was forecast for the primary energy demand in non-communist world, assuming the economic growth of 3 % a year worldwide. The trend of the use of natural gas, coal and nuclear power is discussed. At the beginning of the 21st century, world energy will be supplied 42 % by oil, 18 % by natural gas, 24 % by coal and 8 % by nuclear power. (Kako, I.)

  17. Mega-History and the 21st century singularity puzzle

    Akop P. Nazaretyan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A series of calculations carried out independently by the Australian, Russian and American re- searchers have demonstrated that a crucial global polyfurcation is expected near the middle of the 21st century. This result is drawn by extrapolating into the future the logarithmic acceleration law, which involves the phase transitions in the evolution of biosphere and anthroposphere. The paper investigates the palliatives of the planetary civilization beyond the big evolutionary Singularity in the context of Mega-history and complexity theory worldviews. It gives the mathematical deduction a universal ground and besides, helps involve some recent discoveries in psychology and cultural anthropology to tracing the forecasting attractors and scenarios. The destiny of the Earth (as well as any other planetary civilization may conclusively depend on whether or not the intellectual ac- tor succeeds in developing his inner regulation to balance the potentially unlimited developments in technological power. Particularly, this includes overcoming the macro-group identities, religious and quasi-religious ideologies, which always suggest a friend-or-foe discrimination matrix.

  18. [Cardiovascular diseases, medical apocalypse of the 21st century?].

    Mielnik, Małgorzata; Steciwko, Andrzej

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this article is to bring forward and realise the size of cardiovascular diseases and the burden of its numbers that concern practising doctors in Lower Silesia, in Poland, Europe and the world. Every fourth patient knocking at the GP's door comes with a problem with the circulatory system. These diseases are the reason for every second in hospitalization or referral to a specialist. The most common diagnosis is not the common cold but arterial hypertension. Three of the most common diseases in patients over 65 years old are: hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, and atherosclerosis of the brain arteries. Poland belongs to the group of developed countries with an emerging economy, where degenerative diseases dominate, and cardiovascular diseases account for the biggest problems within the Health System. Nearly half of male deaths (46%) and over half of female deaths (56%) are the consequence of cardiovascular diseases. 80% of people around the world live in developing economies, where cardiovascular diseases cause 23% of all deaths. Every fifth person lives in a developed country and has a 50% chance of dying because of cardiovascular diseases. Will these diseases become "the number one killer" of the 21st century? 27% lost healthy life years are due to arterial hypertension, ischeamic heart disease, and congestive heart failure so their epidemiology is being regarded in this article. PMID:15518325

  19. Civilian Power from Space in the Early 21st Century

    Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M; Wood, L

    2003-06-01

    If power beamed from space is to be become widely used on Earth in the first half of the 21St century, several thus-far-persistent impediments must be obviated, including threshold effects and problematic aspects of cost, availability, reliability, hazards and environmental impacts. We sketch a generally-applicable route to doing so, noting key enabling technologies and practical features. Likely-essential features of any successful strategy include vigorous, systematic leveraging of all intrinsic features of space-derived power, e.g., addressing marginal, high-value-added markets for electric power in space- and time-agile manners to conveniently provide power-upon-demand, and incrementally ''wedging'' into ever-larger markets with ever more cost-efficient generations and scales of technology. We suggest that no prudent strategic plan will rely upon large-scale, long-term public subsidies--fiscal, regulatory, etc.--with their attendant ''sovereign risks'' and interminable delays, and that plan-essential governmental support likely will be limited to early feasibility demonstrations, provision of threshold technologies and a rational, competition-neutral licensing environment. If salient realities are uniformly respected and accessible technologies are intelligently leveraged, electricity derived from space-sourced power-beams may come into significant civilian use during the latter part of the first quarter of this century, and may become widely used by the half-century point.

  20. Neglected Basal Cell Carcinomas in the 21st Century

    Erika Varga

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although tumors on the surface of the skin are considered to be easily recognizable, neglected advanced skin neoplasms are encountered even in the 21st century. There can be numerous causes of the delay in the diagnosis: fear of the diagnosis and the treatment, becoming accustomed to a slowly growing tumor, old age, a low social milieu, and an inadequate hygienic culture are among the factors leading some people not to seek medical advice. The treatment of such advanced neoplasms is usually challenging. The therapy of neglected cases demands an individual multidisciplinary approach and teamwork. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC, the most common cutaneous tumor, usually develops in the elderly, grows slowly, and has an extremely low metastatic potential; these factors are suggesting that BCCs might well be the “ideal candidates” for neglected tumors. Five neglected advanced cases of BCC were diagnosed in our dermatological institute between 2000 and 2009. The clinical characteristics and treatment modalities of these neoplasms are discussed, together with the possible causes of the neglect.

  1. Biosurfactants: Multifunctional Biomolecules of the 21st Century

    Danyelle Khadydja F. Santos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the era of global industrialisation, the exploration of natural resources has served as a source of experimentation for science and advanced technologies, giving rise to the manufacturing of products with high aggregate value in the world market, such as biosurfactants. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic microbial molecules with hydrophilic and hydrophobic moieties that partition at liquid/liquid, liquid/gas or liquid/solid interfaces. Such characteristics allow these biomolecules to play a key role in emulsification, foam formation, detergency and dispersal, which are desirable qualities in different industries. Biosurfactant production is considered one of the key technologies for development in the 21st century. Besides exerting a strong positive impact on the main global problems, biosurfactant production has considerable importance to the implantation of sustainable industrial processes, such as the use of renewable resources and “green” products. Biodegradability and low toxicity have led to the intensification of scientific studies on a wide range of industrial applications for biosurfactants in the field of bioremediation as well as the petroleum, food processing, health, chemical, agricultural and cosmetic industries. In this paper, we offer an extensive review regarding knowledge accumulated over the years and advances achieved in the incorporation of biomolecules in different industries.

  2. Langley Ground Facilities and Testing in the 21st Century

    Ambur, Damodar R.; Kegelman, Jerome T.; Kilgore, William A.

    2010-01-01

    A strategic approach for retaining and more efficiently operating the essential Langley Ground Testing Facilities in the 21st Century is presented. This effort takes advantage of the previously completed and ongoing studies at the Agency and National levels. This integrated approach takes into consideration the overall decline in test business base within the nation and reduced utilization in each of the Langley facilities with capabilities to test in the subsonic, transonic, supersonic, and hypersonic speed regimes. The strategy accounts for capability needs to meet the Agency programmatic requirements and strategic goals and to execute test activities in the most efficient and flexible facility operating structure. The structure currently being implemented at Langley offers agility to right-size our capability and capacity from a national perspective, to accommodate the dynamic nature of the testing needs, and will address the influence of existing and emerging analytical tools for design. The paradigm for testing in the retained facilities is to efficiently and reliably provide more accurate and high-quality test results at an affordable cost to support design information needs for flight regimes where the computational capability is not adequate and to verify and validate the existing and emerging computational tools. Each of the above goals are planned to be achieved, keeping in mind the increasing small industry customer base engaged in developing unpiloted aerial vehicles and commercial space transportation systems.

  3. Cyberbullying: a 21st Century Health Care Phenomenon.

    Carter, Jemica M; Wilson, Feleta L

    2015-01-01

    This study examined bullying and cyberbullying prevalence among 367 adolescents 10 to 18 years of age who were attending schools and community organizations in suburban and urban neighborhoods in the Midwest United States. The correlational design investigated adolescents' daily use of technology that could be used to cyberbully peers, such as cell phones, computers, email, and the Internet. Results showed that 30% of participants had been bullied during school, and 17% had been cyberbullied, with online social networking sites the most common media employed (68%). The majority of participants owned or had access to computers (92%), email accounts (88%), social networking accounts (e.g., Facebook or MySpace) (82%), and cell phones (79%). Daily technology use included an average of two hours on a computer and a median of 71 text messages per day. Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences in bullying or cyberbullying prevalence based on location (urban or suburban) or demographic characteristics. Given the substantial presence of cyberbullying and the increase in technology use among adolescents in the 21st century, nurses need knowledge of the phenomenon to plan assessments in clinical practice. Early identification and assessment of cyberbullying victims and perpetrators, and development and implementation of effective interventions are needed to reduce this form of bullying among adolescents. PMID:26201169

  4. State, nation and democracy on the 21st century

    Nidia Catherine González Piñeros

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relationship between State and Nation in the recent events in Japan and Bolivia, cases in which the universally shared ideas about development and democracy are met with the common criteria for the majority of the countries in the world. This relationship is analyzed comparing the particularities of each context regarding the concepts mentioned. Japan, despite being considered as an economically developed country, is criticized for its lack of exercise of democratic, popular politics. That country, despite being in the 21st century, remains a constitutional monarchy. Thus, given the catastrophic episode from March, 2011, the destiny of the citizens was defined by the imperial family. Bolivia, for its part, since the beginning of this century has managed a national reconstruction that has re-founded the Constitution and, therefore, the nation and the State. However, this democratic reorganization now faces a number of dilemmas where the State is debating between democracy and authoritarianism, as well as between liberal development and development from a communal perspective.

  5. Manganism in the 21st Century: The Hanninen Lecture

    Racette, Brad A.

    2014-01-01

    Since the original description of the health effects of inhaled occupational manganese (Mn) by Couper in 1837, an extensive literature details the clinical syndrome and pathophysiology of what was thought to be a rare condition. In the last decade, conventional wisdom regarding the clinicopathological effects of Mn has been challenged. Past exposures to Mn were an order of magnitude higher than modern exposures in developed countries; therefore, the clinical syndrome seen in the time of Couper is no longer typical of modern Mn exposed workers. Parkinsonism (rigidity, bradykinesia, rest tremor, and postural instability) is present in 15% of Mn-exposed workers in welding industries, and these parkinsonian signs are associated with reduced health status and quality of life. These parkinsonian signs also overlap considerably with the clinical findings seen in early stages of Parkinson disease (PD); although, molecular imaging suggests that Mn-exposed workers have dopaminergic dysfunction in a pattern unique from PD. Furthermore, geographic information system studies demonstrate that regions of the US with high industrial Mn emissions have an increased incidence of PD and increased PD associated mortality. This review will contrast historical, descriptive human studies in Mn-exposed subjects with more recent data and will suggest a research agenda for the 21st century. PMID:24148923

  6. Parasitic diseases: opportunities and challenges in the 21st century

    Daniel G Colley

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The opportunities and challenges for the study and control of parasitic diseases in the 21st century are both exciting and daunting. Based on the contributions from this field over the last part of the 20th century, we should expect new biologic concepts will continue to come from this discipline to enrich the general area of biomedical research. The general nature of such a broad category of infections is difficult to distill, but they often depend on well-orchestrated, complex life cycles and they often involve chronic, relatively well-balanced host/parasite relationships. Such characteristics force biological systems to their limits, and this may be why studies of these diseases have made fundamental contributions to molecular biology, cell biology and immunology. However, if these findings are to continue apace, parasitologists must capitalize on the new findings being generated though genomics, bioinformatics, proteomics, and genetic manipulations of both host and parasite. Furthermore, they must do so based on sound biological insights and the use of hypothesis-driven studies of these complex systems. A major challenge over the next century will be to capitalize on these new findings and translate them into successful, sustainable strategies for control, elimination and eradication of the parasitic diseases that pose major public health threats to the physical and cognitive development and health of so many people worldwide.

  7. Biosurfactants: Multifunctional Biomolecules of the 21st Century

    Santos, Danyelle Khadydja F.; Rufino, Raquel D.; Luna, Juliana M.; Santos, Valdemir A.; Sarubbo, Leonie A.

    2016-01-01

    In the era of global industrialisation, the exploration of natural resources has served as a source of experimentation for science and advanced technologies, giving rise to the manufacturing of products with high aggregate value in the world market, such as biosurfactants. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic microbial molecules with hydrophilic and hydrophobic moieties that partition at liquid/liquid, liquid/gas or liquid/solid interfaces. Such characteristics allow these biomolecules to play a key role in emulsification, foam formation, detergency and dispersal, which are desirable qualities in different industries. Biosurfactant production is considered one of the key technologies for development in the 21st century. Besides exerting a strong positive impact on the main global problems, biosurfactant production has considerable importance to the implantation of sustainable industrial processes, such as the use of renewable resources and “green” products. Biodegradability and low toxicity have led to the intensification of scientific studies on a wide range of industrial applications for biosurfactants in the field of bioremediation as well as the petroleum, food processing, health, chemical, agricultural and cosmetic industries. In this paper, we offer an extensive review regarding knowledge accumulated over the years and advances achieved in the incorporation of biomolecules in different industries. PMID:26999123

  8. Biosurfactants: Multifunctional Biomolecules of the 21st Century.

    Santos, Danyelle Khadydja F; Rufino, Raquel D; Luna, Juliana M; Santos, Valdemir A; Sarubbo, Leonie A

    2016-01-01

    In the era of global industrialisation, the exploration of natural resources has served as a source of experimentation for science and advanced technologies, giving rise to the manufacturing of products with high aggregate value in the world market, such as biosurfactants. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic microbial molecules with hydrophilic and hydrophobic moieties that partition at liquid/liquid, liquid/gas or liquid/solid interfaces. Such characteristics allow these biomolecules to play a key role in emulsification, foam formation, detergency and dispersal, which are desirable qualities in different industries. Biosurfactant production is considered one of the key technologies for development in the 21st century. Besides exerting a strong positive impact on the main global problems, biosurfactant production has considerable importance to the implantation of sustainable industrial processes, such as the use of renewable resources and "green" products. Biodegradability and low toxicity have led to the intensification of scientific studies on a wide range of industrial applications for biosurfactants in the field of bioremediation as well as the petroleum, food processing, health, chemical, agricultural and cosmetic industries. In this paper, we offer an extensive review regarding knowledge accumulated over the years and advances achieved in the incorporation of biomolecules in different industries. PMID:26999123

  9. Multi-model ensemble projections in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century

    Yang, Tao; Hao, Xiaobo; Shao, Quanxi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhao, Chenyi; Chen, Xi; Wang, Weiguang

    2012-01-01

    Projections of changes in climate extreme are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on social and natural systems. This article presents future projections of climate extremes in the Tibetan Plateau constructed from ensembles of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), under a range of emission scenarios. The extremes of temperature and precipitation are described by seven indices, namely, the frost day (FD), percentage of nights when T min > 90th percentile (TN90), consecutive dry days (CDD), annual count of days when precipitation >=10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and annual total precipitation when precipitation > 95th percentile (R95T). Results indicate that frost days decrease over the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century. More frequent warm nights are also projected in the plateau. The increases of these temperature extremes under A2 and A1B scenarios are more pronounced than under B1. Heavy precipitation events for single days and pentads are projected to increase in their intensity over most parts of Tibetan Plateau. CDD, R10, R5D, R95T and SDII collectively suggest more extreme precipitation in the region (2011-2020). In addition, impacts of climate extremes changes on local water resources and fragile ecosystem are discussed as an extension of this article. The findings will be beneficial to project regional responses in this unique region to global climate change, and then to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of climate change.

  10. Developing skills for youth in the 21st century: The role of elite International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme schools in China

    Wright, Ewan; Lee, Moosung

    2014-04-01

    There is a growing body of research suggesting that schools need to respond to changing social and economic dynamics by prioritising "21st-century skills". Proponents of this view, who have been termed "the 21st century skills movement", have called for greater emphasis on cognitive and non-cognitive skills development, alongside the learning of subject content and technical skills. This paper explores the potential of International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme (IBDP) schools to respond to this mandate in China, one of the fastest-growing markets for International Baccalaureate® (IB) schools globally. The authors' research team undertook a multi-site case study of five elite IBDP schools in China. Their findings revealed confidence among interviewees that the IB educational philosophy was conducive to 21st-century skills development, especially through the provision of the three IBDP "Core Requirements", which are Creativity, Action, Service (CAS), Extended Essay (EE) and Theory of Knowledge (TOK). Despite this confidence, concerns remain about the implementation of the IB educational philosophy in the context of IBDP schools in China.

  11. Detection/Attribution Studies from Observational Data and Historical CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models on the Regional Sea Level Variability during the 20th and 21st Century in the Pacific Ocean.

    Palanisamy, H. K.; Cazenave, A. A.; Chevrier, R.; Meyssignac, B.; Delcroix, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    From recent published studies, it is not yet clear whether the sea level spatial trend patterns of the Pacific Ocean from satellite altimetry over 20 years are mostly due to internal climate variability or if some anthropogenic fingerprint is already detectable. The objective of this study is to investigate this issue in a more detailed manner. For that purpose, we remove the signal corresponding to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from the observed altimetry sea level trend over 1993-2012 and find some significant residual pattern in the western tropical Pacific. When the same is performed on the thermocline attributed steric sea level trend (since most of the observed sea level trend in the tropics is explained by the vertical thermal structure of the ocean), essentially the same residual pattern remains. This suggests that the internal climate variability alone cannot account for all of the observed trend patterns in the western tropical Pacific and that there is likely a fingerprint of anthropogenic forcing. In addition, by making use of different sets of CMIP5 coupled climate models (with and without external forcing), we try to separate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability to the Pacific Ocean regional sea level variability between 1900 and 2005. As in the CMIP5 models, the timing of the internal climate variability is poorly reproduced, performing an ensemble mean of several such models will therefore compensate this internal variability thereby giving an estimate of regional sea level variability driven by external (natural and/or anthropogenic) forcing only. We show that the sea level trend pattern from the ensemble climate models in the tropical Pacific is very similar to the observed sea level trend patterns from satellite altimetry after removing the PDO signal. This suggests that the presence of anthropogenic fingerprint is already detectable in satellite altimetry based sea level.

  12. On the Hiatus in the Acceleration of Tropical Upwelling Since the Beginning of the 21st Century

    Aschmann, J.; Burrows, J. P.; Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Thompson, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry transport-model simulations (1980-2013) to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Our model reproduces the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record, showing a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with corresponding changes in the vertical transport and conclude that a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling occurred during the last decade.

  13. Social development of 21st century and reform of China's elementary education

    Ye Lan

    2006-01-01

    The Chinese society of the 21st century is at a critical period of transformation.The emergence of globalization and informationalization are the most striking changes of the current Chinese society.The profound change in the social transformation and its penetrating influence on people's lives has revealed the disadvantages of the present education.For 10 years,the"New Elementary Education",based on the background of Chinese society,and the demand for school education reform clearly puts forward the necessity of education reform in the period of social transformation,in other words,education should achieve its transformational development.This paper presents a deep research of globalization and informationalization,which are the background of Chinese social transformation.On this basis,the paper examines the implication of"school transformational reform"of the present-day Chinese elementary education,and finally proposes some steps for achieving"school transformational reform".

  14. Command, Control and Communications Capabilities Enabling 21st Century Missions, a Historical Perspective

    Waterman, Robert D.; Rice, Herbert D.; Waterman, Susan J.

    2010-01-01

    Command, Control and Communications (CCC) has evolved through the years from simple switches, dials, analogue hardwire networks and lights to a modern computer based digital network. However there are two closely coupled pillars upon which a CCC system is built. The first, is that technology drives the pace of advancement. The second is that a culture that fosters resistance to change can limit technological advancements in the CCC system. While technology has advanced at a tremendous rate throughout the years, the change in culture has moved slowly. This paper will attempt to show through a historical perspective where specific design decisions for early CCC systems have erroneously evolved into general requirements being imposed on later systems. Finally this paper will provide a glimpse into the future directions envisioned for CCC capabilities that will enable 21st century missions.

  15. Russia's energy resources in the 21st century with account for their role in the world energy

    Full text: The long-term prospects (to the end of the 21st century) of Russia and world's energy development were studied to determine the extent of Russia's provision with energy resources, estimate their cost, production scale, final use and export, as well as the competitiveness of energy technologies. Bearing in mind an important role of energy resources export Russia's energy was considered as a part of world energy. The currently available data on the world's explored reserves and speculative resources of oil, natural gas and coal were systematized. According to the classification by accessibility, reliability, geological conditions of occurrence, natural quality, technical recoverability, economic efficiency of use and readiness to exploitation of all the resources were divided into 8 cost categories with an extraction cost of USD 1-20/GJ. A long-term forecast of consumption of 4 types of final energy (electric, thermal, mechanical and chemical) was made for 13 regions of the world to 2100 based on the empirical relationships between the GDP growth rate, change in the energy/GDP ratio and the economic development level achieved. According to the forecast by the year 2100 the final energy consumption of the world will increase 2-4 times and that of Russia - 1.5-2 times as compared to the current level. A 13-region model of the world's energy system was employed to calculate the optimal structure of energy technologies. The model described the energy in the form of interrelated processes (technologies) of primary energy production, its conversion to the secondary energy carriers and production of final energy. The model uses the data on several hundreds of energy technologies. The structure of energy was optimized based on the economic criterion with account for the constraints on extraction of resources, production of final energy, schedules of power supply, emissions of harmful substances, etc. The former USSR is represented in the model by 4 regions

  16. Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland

    Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Guðmundsson, S.; Björnsson, H.; Pálsson, F.; Jóhannesson, T.; Hannesdóttir, H.; Sigurðsson, S. Þ.; Berthier, E.

    2011-11-01

    The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936-1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images. The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895-2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000-2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios, the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the 21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30-40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area.

  17. TOXICITY TESTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY: A VISION AND A STRATEGY

    Krewski, D.; Acosta, D.; Andersen, M.;

    2010-01-01

    With the release of the landmark report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the U. S. National Academy of Sciences, in 2007, precipitated a major change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. It envisions increased efficiency in toxicity testing and decreased animal...... usage by transitioning from current expensive and lengthy in vivo testing with qualitative endpoints to in vitro toxicity pathway assays on human cells or cell lines using robotic high-throughput screening with mechanistic quantitative parameters. Risk assessment in the exposed human population would...... focus on avoiding significant perturbations in these toxicity pathways. Computational systems biology models would be implemented to determine the dose-response models of perturbations of pathway function. Extrapolation of in vitro results to in vivo human blood and tissue concentrations would be based...

  18. The demographic picture of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century

    Rašević Mirjana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The central part of this paper is devoted to establishing the demographic picture of the City of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century. The authors discuss the number of inhabitants and the components of demographic growth through natural increase (fertility and mortality on the one hand and net migration on the other. Special attention was paid to the problem of refugees (the number and special distribution of refugees. Age and sex structure, the structure by marital status, as well as educational, and economic structures were analyzed. Current ethnic structure, as well as the changes in this structure since the early 1990s, were also presented. The analysis of the demographic picture has made it possible, first of all, to show the implications for the future of the established population trends, and second of all, to single out the basic demographic problems that need to be addressed strategically by the City of Belgrade and by the State.

  19. Human Resource Management in 21st Century: Issues & Challenges & Possible Solutions to Attain Competitiveness

    Muhammad Hashim

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper report on the human resource management in 21st century: issues and challenges and its solutions to attain competitiveness. Technology has changed everything with great extent, the methods of production, the process of recruitment, the training techniques, and new equipment etc. Now it’s up to HR personnel’s to work with their functions as shown below to best manage the workforce. In these pieces of paper we have discussed those foremost issues and challenges which are confronting today Organization. To overcome these issues and challenges the HR mangers will have to build a standard structure that allows managing all different workforce alternatives. This way the organization maintains their competitive advantages. Recommendation and conclusions are given at the last of this paper.

  20. Nuclear energy: 21st century promise. 10 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

    What role will nuclear energy play can not be can not be answered definitively, but IAEA projections for the coming decades are markedly higher than they were even five years ago. Nuclear reactors currently generate electricity for nearly 1 billion people, producing about 16% of the world's electricity. This percentage has held relatively steady for more than a decade, keeping pace with the steady expansion in the global electricity market. But in just the past few years, we have witnessed a significant change in attitudes towards nuclear power. Fast growing global energy demands, an increased emphasis on the security of energy supply, and the risk of climate change are driving a renewed consideration, in many quarters, towards investment in nuclear power. This past March, at an international ministerial conference in Paris, participants from 65 countries were upbeat regarding the role of nuclear power in meeting 21st century electricity and energy needs. Near term nuclear growth remains centred in Asia and Eastern Europe, which together account for 22 of the 24 units now under construction. The Russian Federation intends to double its nuclear generating capacity by 2020; China plans nearly a six-fold expansion in capacity by the same date; and India anticipates a ten-fold increase by 2022. Elsewhere, plans remain more modest, but it is clear that nuclear energy is regaining stature as a serious option. When Finland began pouring concrete for Olkiluoto-3 earlier this year, it was the first new nuclear construction in Western Europe since 1991. France will likely be next, with construction of a European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) at Flamanville scheduled to start in 2007. Some 'newcomer' developing countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, are also moving steadily forward with plans for nuclear power investment. And at last month's IAEA General Conference in Vienna, a host of countries were discussing plans and possibilities for initiating or expanding nuclear

  1. Myyntikanavat ja tuotantoprosessit Tampereen ammattikorkeakoulun koulutusviennissä : Case: 21st Century Educators

    Lehto, Sami

    2012-01-01

    Tein opinnäytetyöni Tampereen ammattikorkeakoululle tukemaan koulutusviennin kehitystä tulevien vuosien aikana 21st Century Educators – koulutusohjelman näkökulmasta. 21st Century Educators on Tampereen ammattikorkeakoulussa kehitetty virtuaalisessa oppimisympäristössä toimiva pedagoginen opettajakoulutusohjelma. Koulutus on suhteellisen uusi, sillä sille on ehditty tekemään vasta yksi toteutus Yhdistyneissä Arabiemiirikunnissa. Opinnäytetyössäni selvitin 21st Century Educators – koulutus...

  2. TOWARDS GENDER EQUALITY: UKRAINE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

    Tetyana V. Danylova

    2013-12-01

    address gender issues in program development. In the 21st century issues of gender equity should be a priority at all levels.

  3. Progress in rheumatology in the early 21st century

    E. L. Nasonov

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Rheumatoid arthritis (RA, juvenile arthritis, spondyloarthritis, including psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, and other systemic connective tissue diseases, are the most severe chronic immunoinflammatory rheumatic diseases (IIRDs that affect as high as 10% of the population. Substantial progress has been made in the treatment of IIRDs in the 21st century. The current Treat to Target (T2T strategy for RA is to achieve remission as soon as possible. The main treatment goal is to improve quality of life, by controlling the symptoms of the disease, by preventing joint destruction and dysfunction, and by maintaining social possibilities. The most important way to achieve this goal is to inhibit inflammation and to evaluate the efficiency of treatment, by using the standardized activity indices and by choosing the appropriate treatment option. The widespread use of biological agents in combination with standard disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs could substantially enhance therapeutic effectiveness. A new class of medicaments (chemically synthesized small molecular weight agents to treat RA has appeared. The point of their application is tyrosine kinases, primarily Janus kinase (JAK. The new era in the treatment of SLE and other IIRDs is associated with the design of the new class of drugs Р BLyS inhibitors. In the coming years, the main lines of researches by Russian rheumatologists will be to elaborate a strategy to prevent IIRDs; to introduce innovative methods for their early diagnosis and treatment (biological agents, JAK inhibitors, and other cell signaling molecules and for the prediction of the outcomes of the most severe forms of IIRD; to realize the concept of personified medicine (to investigate the prognostic biomarkers of the efficiency and safety of targeted therapy, to reduce the risk of infectious complications, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, osteoporotic fractures, and other comorbidities.

  4. Progress in rheumatology in the early 21st century

    E. L. Nasonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rheumatoid arthritis (RA, juvenile arthritis, spondyloarthritis, including psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, and other systemic connective tissue diseases, are the most severe chronic immunoinflammatory rheumatic diseases (IIRDs that affect as high as 10% of the population. Substantial progress has been made in the treatment of IIRDs in the 21st century. The current Treat to Target (T2T strategy for RA is to achieve remission as soon as possible. The main treatment goal is to improve quality of life, by controlling the symptoms of the disease, by preventing joint destruction and dysfunction, and by maintaining social possibilities. The most important way to achieve this goal is to inhibit inflammation and to evaluate the efficiency of treatment, by using the standardized activity indices and by choosing the appropriate treatment option. The widespread use of biological agents in combination with standard disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs could substantially enhance therapeutic effectiveness. A new class of medicaments (chemically synthesized small molecular weight agents to treat RA has appeared. The point of their application is tyrosine kinases, primarily Janus kinase (JAK. The new era in the treatment of SLE and other IIRDs is associated with the design of the new class of drugs Р BLyS inhibitors. In the coming years, the main lines of researches by Russian rheumatologists will be to elaborate a strategy to prevent IIRDs; to introduce innovative methods for their early diagnosis and treatment (biological agents, JAK inhibitors, and other cell signaling molecules and for the prediction of the outcomes of the most severe forms of IIRD; to realize the concept of personified medicine (to investigate the prognostic biomarkers of the efficiency and safety of targeted therapy, to reduce the risk of infectious complications, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, osteoporotic fractures, and other comorbidities.

  5. Responsible Management Education for 21st Century Leadership

    Markus Prandini

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In the aftermath of the 2008/09 financial crisis, business schools had to face increasing criticism to have failed equipping their students with a broad and critical understanding of management and business practices which go beyond pure self-interest. Business schools are supposed to contribute to a holistic understanding of management which creates value along a triple bottom line: profit, people and planet. The triple bottom line finds its realization in the concept of sustainable corporate responsibility. This paper discusses possible approaches for business schools how to educate students to be future generators of sustainable value for business and society at large and to work for an inclusive and sustainable global economy. On the basis of the recently published Principles for Responsible Management Education (PRME as well as contemporary learning theories, the paper provides concrete recommendations how to foster students’ development towards long-term thinking, responsible business leaders. The paper argues that student learning needs to occur within powerful learning environments to provide an active, problem-based and self-directed acquisition of knowledge, skills and attitudes. Two approaches to create best-practice learning environments are real-life case studies and real-life student projects which both lead to a strong buy in of students, faculty and company partners. Both approaches are exemplified with the bachelor degree program International Management at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (Switzerland. As a conclusion, a responsible management education fosters the students’ knowledge, skills and attitudes towards responsible business leadership to shape the future direction of the 21st century.

  6. Public support for nuclear energy in the 21st century

    Public support for nuclear energy in the next millennium will depend on the extent to which two essential qualities are exercised now by industry and governments. These qualities are leadership and vision. However, a fear of leadership in supporting nuclear energy afflicts government officials and legislators and many industry stakeholders as well. The paper examines a root cause of this fear of leadership, namely the use of an incomplete and outdated model of public opinion on nuclear energy. The old model leads to the conclusion that expressing support for nuclear energy is politically risky. Yet a new, more complete, model of public opinion on nuclear energy is readily available from the social science research. By underestimating various types of support that exist, the old model causes stakeholders in the industry to believe that their position is unpopular. This may make them reluctant to lead the way in speaking out. Thus, politicians and government officials hear most from a small opposition. Leadership in speaking out and advocating solutions is not sufficient for assuring public support for nuclear energy in the 21st century. Under the umbrella of sustainable development, opinion leaders worldwide are assessing energy sources on the basis of ethical and environmental considerations, not just economics. Leaders in the nuclear industry for years have made a strong case for nuclear energy as a moral imperative, based on the absence of emissions and the preservation of natural resources. This case can and must be developed through active participation in world movements, by listening to all views, and by helping to define what is sustainable and just for future generations. (author)

  7. Comment 5 - agricultural response to climate change

    The complex interrelationship between global climate change and agricultural production will become one of the most significant policy issues, in both developed and developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. Global and regional climate change will modify both agricultural production capacity and its location. And the intensity of agricultural production will contribute to environmental change at both the regional and global levels

  8. Food security in the 21st century: Global yield projections and agricultural expansion

    Davis, K. F.; Rulli, M.; D'Odorico, P.

    2013-12-01

    Global demands on agricultural lands are ever increasing as a result of population growth, changes in diet and increasing biofuel use. By mid-century, the demands for food and fiber are expected to roughly double with the population reaching 9.5 billion. However, earth's finite resource base places a ceiling on the amount of agricultural production that is possible. Several strategies have been widely discussed to meet these rapid increases and to extend the ceiling yet higher, including reducing waste, modifying diets, improving yield and productivity and expanding agriculture and aquaculture. One of the most promising of these is closing the yield gap of currently under-performing agricultural land that has the potential to be much more productive. With high inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers), this strategy has real potential to increase food security, particularly in the developing world where population is expected to sharply increase and where a high potential for yield gap closure exists. Thus it is important to consider whether improvements in global yield can adequately meet global dietary demand during the 21st century. Constructing yield projections to the end of the century, we examine whether global crop production for 154 countries and 16 major food crops under selected agricultural and dietary scenarios can keep pace with estimates of population growth to 2100. By calculating the global production of calories, we are then able to examine how many people can be supported under future scenarios and how closing yield gaps can increase this potential. Our findings agree with previous studies that closing the yield gap alone cannot provide sufficient production by mid-century and that a heavy global dependence on trade will persist throughout the century. Using high-resolution global land suitability maps under a suite of climate models, we find that scenarios incorporating a combination of yield gap closure and agricultural expansion provide the most

  9. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21): A big-data fusion approach

    Hamilton, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    CGMFC-21 provides high resolution local, regional, national, and global estimates of annual mangrove forest levels using continuous data from 2000 through to 2012 with the goal of driving mangrove research questions pertaining to biodiversity, climate change, food security, livelihoods, fisheries support, and conservation that have been hindered until now by a lack of suitable data. CGMFC-21 provides the required spatiotemporal resolutions to not only set REDD baseline measures globally in a systematic manner, but also to account for forest degradation as well as deforestation on an annual basis. Countries showing relatively high levels of 21st Century mangrove loss include Myanmar, Guatemala, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Many nations that have reported mangrove deforestation in earlier periods such as Ecuador, Bangladesh and Nigeria, have stabilized their mangrove levels during this period. Indonesia remains by far the largest mangrove holding nation containing between 26.16% and 28.50% of the global m...

  10. Drought over China in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3%Drought over China in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

    LIU Ke; JIANG Da-Bang; MA Jian-Yong

    2012-01-01

    Based on 150-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the effective drought index (EDI) is used to project the future drought change in China. During the baseline period 1986–2005, RegCM3 was found to reliably simulate the spatial pattern of drought over the country. Over the 21st century, the regionally averaged EDI should increase, corresponding to a decrease of drought, while the probability of extreme drought events should increase. Geographically, drought should clearly increase in Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, Southwest China, and southern Tibet but decrease in most parts of the rest of the country.

  11. The Effectiveness of Traditional and 21st Century Teaching Tools on Students' Science Learning

    Bellflower, Julie V.

    Any student seeking a high school diploma from the public school system in one U.S. state must pass the state's high school graduation test. In 2009, only 88% of students at one high school in the state met the basic proficiency requirements on the science portion of the test. Because improved science education has been identified as an explicit national goal, the purpose of this mixed methods study was to determine whether traditional teaching tools (notes, lecture, and textbook) or 21st century teaching tools (online tutorials, video games, YouTube, and virtual labs) lead to greater gains in students' science learning. Bruner's constructivist and Bandura's social cognitive theories served as the foundations for the study. Quantitative research questions were used to investigate the relationship between the type of teaching tools used and student learning gains. Quantitative data from students' pre and posttests were collected and analyzed using a dependent samples t-test. Qualitative data were collected through a focus group interview and participant journals. Analysis of the qualitative data included coding the data and writing a descriptive narrative to convey the findings. Results showed no statistically significant differences in students' science achievement: both types of teaching tools led to student learning gains. As a result, an action plan was developed to assist science educators in the implementation of traditional and 21st century teaching tools that can be used to improve students' science learning. Implications for positive social change included providing science educators with a specific plan of action that will enhance students' science learning, thereby increasing science scores on the state and other high stakes tests.

  12. Nitrous oxide (N2O): the dominant ozone-depleting substance emitted in the 21st century.

    Ravishankara, A R; Daniel, John S; Portmann, Robert W

    2009-10-01

    By comparing the ozone depletion potential-weighted anthropogenic emissions of N2O with those of other ozone-depleting substances, we show that N2O emission currently is the single most important ozone-depleting emission and is expected to remain the largest throughout the 21st century. N2O is unregulated by the Montreal Protocol. Limiting future N2O emissions would enhance the recovery of the ozone layer from its depleted state and would also reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, representing a win-win for both ozone and climate. PMID:19713491

  13. Five Forces of 21st Century Innovation Strategy: Insights for Leaders

    Arent, Douglas J.; Pless, Jacquelyn; Statwick, Patricia

    2016-03-01

    Understanding these dynamics informs 21st century innovation strategies that government and business leaders rely upon to address modern technological, social, environmental, and demographic realities. This Research Highlight previews JISEA's continuing work on innovation strategy.

  14. Roadmap and technical white papers for the 21st century truck partnership

    None, None

    2006-12-01

    21st Century Truck Partnership will support the development and implementation of technologies that will cut fuel use and emissions and enhance safety, affordability, and performance of trucks and buses.

  15. Education for Life and Work Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century

    Skills, CODDLA2C; Education, CF; Assessment, BOTA; Education, DOBASSA; Council, NR

    2013-01-01

    " Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century describes this important set of key skills that increase deeper learning, college and career readiness, student-centered learning, and higher ...

  16. FY 1998 Blue Book: Computing, Information, and Communications: Technologies for the 21st Century

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — As the 21st century approaches, the rapid convergence of computing, communications, and information technology promises unprecedented opportunities for scientific...

  17. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10–20% by the end of the 21st century. PMID:27219116

  18. Representations of gender and subjectivity in 21st century American science fiction television

    Halliday, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    This thesis interrogates representations of gender and subjectivity within 21st century American science fiction television. It recognises a recent convergence of generic concerns, the shifting contexts of television, and the cultural context of 21st century America. Identifying a recent shift in how American science fiction television of this era has engaged with issues of gender and subjectivity, I offer an exploration of this trend via four key texts: Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicle...

  19. Energy supply concepts in the 21st century - the role of nuclear energy. Proceedings

    Contents: Supply structures in the 21st century; security of energy supply in Europe - The European Commission's Green Paper; the U.S. nuclear future; DOE initiatives to advance nuclear energy in the United States; supply reliability - contribution of renewable energy sources; role of brown coal in the futural energy mixing; gas supply for the 21st century; the contribution of nuclear power on supply reliability in Europe and a new power plant for Finland. (GL)

  20. Editorial: Digital systems supporting cognition and exploratory learning in 21st century

    Demetrios G. Sampson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital systems and digital technologies are globally investigated for their potential to transform learning and teaching towards offering unique learning experiences to the 21st century learners. This Special Issue on Digital Systems supporting Cognition and Exploratory Learning in 21st Century aims to contribute to the dialogue between the educational technology and educational psychology research community and the educational practitioners on current issues towards large scale take-up of educational technology.

  1. A Conceptual Framework for the Integration of 21st Century Skills in Biology Education

    Lee Chuo Hiong; Kamisah Osman

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to propose the conceptual framework for the integration of 21st century skills in biology education in Malaysia. An interdisciplinary approach for Biology, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (BTEM) is suggested to imbibe 21st century skills into the existing Biology curriculum. Solving complex and interdisciplinary worldwide biology problems will require students to understand what connections exist across disciplines and how to make those connections....

  2. Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities

    Bellotti, Francesco; Bottino, Rosa Maria; Nadolski, Rob; Fernández Manjón, Baltasar

    2012-01-01

    Bellotti, F., Bottino, R. M., Nadolski, R. J., & Fernández Manjón, B. (2012, 4-6 July). Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities. Presentation at the Workshop Game based learning for 21st century transferable skills: challenges and opportunities, 12th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies (ICALT 2012), Rome, Italy: IEEE Computer Society CPS.

  3. Aquatic Ecosystem Services in the 21st Century Northeast Corridor: Assessment Using a Regional Earth System Model

    Rosenzweig, B.; Miara, A.; Stewart, R. J.; Wollheim, W. M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    Aquatic ecosystems of the Northeast United States will be significantly impacted by both global climate change and the regional-scale strategic management decisions made in the next few years. We have developed a Regional Earth System Model for the Northeast Corridor (NE-RESM) that simulates the impacts of climate, land use, and development policy on the interacting cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. The NE-RESM will provide a unique and critically needed tool for policymakers to understand how their current decisions will impact ecosystem services over the 21st Century. To test our modeling framework, we conducted a retrospective experiment focusing on the water-energy-economy nexus during the period 2000-2010. Component models were developed to 'translate' physical outputs from the NE-RESM - such as stream discharge and water temperature - into ecosystem services including water regulation for thermoelectric cooling and the ability for streams to serve as a refugia for wildlife. Simulations were performed both with and without Clean Water Act limits on thermal pollution. Through this work, we were able to obtain spatially distributed information on how these laws impact power generation by the thermoelectric sector but also enable Northeast streams to serve as habitat for temperature-sensitive aquatic species (Brook Trout, Atlantic Salmon, River Herring and the American Eel). Our ongoing research examines future climate and policy scenarios through 2100. We are considering the impact of changing land cover patterns (a return to agriculture vs. suburban sprawl) and various strategies to meet energy and municipal water needs under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5).

  4. Promoting 21st-Century Skills in the Science Classroom by Adapting Cookbook Lab Activities: The Case of DNA Extraction of Wheat Germ

    Alozie, Nonye M.; Grueber, David J.; Dereski, Mary O.

    2012-01-01

    How can science instruction engage students in 21st-century skills and inquiry-based learning, even when doing simple labs in the classroom? We collaborated with teachers in professional development workshops to transform "cookbook" activities into engaging laboratory experiences. We show how to change the common classroom activity of DNA…

  5. Solar Architecture - indoor - climate design for the 21 st century

    2005-01-01

    Energy-efficient construction - intelligent solutions for tomorrow's architecture For the first time, a comprehensive treatment of all aspects of solar construction in a single volume - from urban-planning to passive and active energy systems and the development of new insulating materials. Solar Architecture presents an over-view of planning instruments and techniques that allow the assessment and implementation of the appropriate measures The book contains a wide range of innovative solutions,

  6. A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century

    Touma, Danielle; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Nayak, Munir A.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-07-01

    Drought is a natural hazard that can have severe and long-lasting impacts on natural and human systems. Although increases in global greenhouse forcing are expected to change the characteristics and impacts of drought in the 21st century, there remains persistent uncertainty about how changes in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture will interact to shape the magnitude - and in some cases direction - of drought in different areas of the globe. Using data from 15 global climate models archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we assess the likelihood of changes in the spatial extent, duration and number of occurrences of four drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Supply-Demand Drought Index (SDDI). We compare these characteristics in two future periods (2010-2054 and 2055-2099) of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We find increases from the baseline period (1961-2005) in the spatial extent, duration and occurrence of "exceptional" drought in subtropical and tropical regions, with many regions showing an increase in both the occurrence and duration. There is strong agreement on the sign of these changes among the individual climate models, although some regions do exhibit substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of change. The changes in SPEI and SDDI characteristics are stronger than the changes in SPI and SRI due to the greater influence of temperature changes in the SPEI and SDDI indices. In particular, we see a robust permanent emergence of the spatial extent of SDDI from the baseline variability in West, East and Saharan Africa as early as 2020 and by 2080 in several other subtropical and tropical regions. The increasing likelihood of exceptional drought identified in our results suggests increasing risk of drought-related stresses for natural and human systems should greenhouse gas

  7. Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

    Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Jed O. Kaplan

    2013-01-01

    We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize ...

  8. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

    Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai

    2015-12-01

    The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0-69.3 ppb. This study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future.

  9. But What About The Big Bad Wolf? Refashionig Red And The Wolf In The 21st Century

    Şerban Andreea

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to revisit three adaptations of Red Riding Hood fairy tales and explore some of the wolf’s reincarnations in order to see how realities change in time. It has generally been observed in the literature that in pop culture Red has undergone quite dramatic changes from the little ingénue to the mature seductress. But what has happened to the bad wolf? How is he imagined by the 21st century pop culture? How do his agency and power change? What (new) message does he convey? To answ...

  10. Australia: Identity, Fear and Governance in the 21st Century

    Pietsch, Juliet; Aarons, Haydn

    2012-01-01

    The latter years of the first decade of the twenty-first century were characterised by an enormous amount of challenge and change to Australia and Australians. Australia’s part in these challenges and changes is borne of our domestic and global ties, our orientation towards ourselves and others, and an ever increasing awareness of the interdependency of our world. Challenges and changes such as terrorism, climate change, human rights, community breakdown, work and livelihood, and crime are no...

  11. Forecasts of 21st Century Snowpack and Implications for Snowmobile and Snowcoach Use in Yellowstone National Park

    Tercek, Michael; Rodman, Ann

    2016-01-01

    Climate models project a general decline in western US snowpack throughout the 21st century, but long-term, spatially fine-grained, management-relevant projections of snowpack are not available for Yellowstone National Park. We focus on the implications that future snow declines may have for oversnow vehicle (snowmobile and snowcoach) use because oversnow tourism is critical to the local economy and has been a contentious issue in the park for more than 30 years. Using temperature-indexed snow melt and accumulation equations with temperature and precipitation data from downscaled global climate models, we forecast the number of days that will be suitable for oversnow travel on each Yellowstone road segment during the mid- and late-21st century. The west entrance road was forecast to be the least suitable for oversnow use in the future while the south entrance road was forecast to remain at near historical levels of driveability. The greatest snow losses were forecast for the west entrance road where as little as 29% of the December–March oversnow season was forecast to be driveable by late century. The climatic conditions that allow oversnow vehicle use in Yellowstone are forecast by our methods to deteriorate significantly in the future. At some point it may be prudent to consider plowing the roads that experience the greatest snow losses. PMID:27467778

  12. Forecasts of 21st Century Snowpack and Implications for Snowmobile and Snowcoach Use in Yellowstone National Park.

    Tercek, Michael; Rodman, Ann

    2016-01-01

    Climate models project a general decline in western US snowpack throughout the 21st century, but long-term, spatially fine-grained, management-relevant projections of snowpack are not available for Yellowstone National Park. We focus on the implications that future snow declines may have for oversnow vehicle (snowmobile and snowcoach) use because oversnow tourism is critical to the local economy and has been a contentious issue in the park for more than 30 years. Using temperature-indexed snow melt and accumulation equations with temperature and precipitation data from downscaled global climate models, we forecast the number of days that will be suitable for oversnow travel on each Yellowstone road segment during the mid- and late-21st century. The west entrance road was forecast to be the least suitable for oversnow use in the future while the south entrance road was forecast to remain at near historical levels of driveability. The greatest snow losses were forecast for the west entrance road where as little as 29% of the December-March oversnow season was forecast to be driveable by late century. The climatic conditions that allow oversnow vehicle use in Yellowstone are forecast by our methods to deteriorate significantly in the future. At some point it may be prudent to consider plowing the roads that experience the greatest snow losses. PMID:27467778

  13. 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins

    Tang, Qiuhong; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2012-03-01

    River runoff is a key index of renewable water resources which affect almost all human and natural systems. Any substantial change in runoff will therefore have serious social, environmental, and ecological consequences. We estimate the runoff response to global mean temperature change implied by the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). In contrast to previous studies, we estimate the runoff sensitivity using global mean temperature change as an index of anthropogenic climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with the rationale that this removes the dependence on emissions scenarios. Our results show that the runoff sensitivity implied by the IPCC experiments is relatively stable across emissions scenarios and global mean temperature increments, but varies substantially across models with the exception of the high-latitudes and currently arid or semi-arid areas. The runoff sensitivities are slightly higher at 0.5°C warming than for larger amounts of warming. The estimated ratio of runoff change to (local) precipitation change (runoff elasticity) ranges from about one to three, and the runoff temperature sensitivity (change in runoff per degree C of local temperature increase) ranges from decreases of about 2 to 6% over most basins in North America and the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.

  14. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

    Md Mizanur Rahman; Md Nazrul Islam; Ahsan Uddin Ahmed; F Georgi

    2012-04-01

    Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54° × 0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa–Schubert (GAS) and Fritch–Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961–1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), −67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), −12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°–2.1°C and 0.9°–3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

  15. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

    Rahman, Md Mizanur; Islam, Md Nazrul; Ahmed, Ahsan Uddin; Georgi, F.

    2012-04-01

    Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54°×0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schubert (GAS) and Fritch-Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961-1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), -67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), -12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°-2.1°C and 0.9°-3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

  16. Tree fruit breeding for the 21st Century

    Fruit producers world-wide are facing challenges including climate change, reductions in available labor, the need for reduced chemical inputs, the spread of native and exotic pests and pathogens, and consumer demands for improved fruit quality and health benefits. Over the past quarter century, ou...

  17. Protected areas: providing natural solutions to 21st Century challenges

    Lopoukhine, N.; Crawhall, N.; Dudley, N.; Figgis, P.; Karibuhoye, C.; Laffoley, D.; Londoño, J. Miranda; MacKinnon, K.; Sandwith, T.

    2012-01-01

    Protected areas remain a cornerstone of global conservation efforts. The double impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss are major threats to achieving the Millennium Development Goals, especially those relating to environmental sustainability, poverty alleviation and food and water security. The growing awareness of the planet’s vulnerability to human driven changes also provides an opportunity to re-emphasize the multiple values of natural ecosystems and the services that they provid...

  18. Greenland's contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century

    Graversen, Rune G.; Drijfhout, Sybren; Hazeleger, Wilco; Bintanja, Richard [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Wal, Roderik van de; Helsen, Michiel [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise the global sea level with {proportional_to}7 m. Over the last few decades, observations manifest a substantial increase of the mass loss of this ice sheet. Both enhanced melting and increase of the dynamical discharge, associated with calving at the outlet-glacier fronts, are contributing to the mass imbalance. Using a dynamical and thermodynamical ice-sheet model, and taking into account speed up of outlet glaciers, we estimate Greenland's contribution to the 21st-century global sea-level rise and the uncertainty of this estimate. Boundary fields of temperature and precipitation extracted from coupled climate-model projections used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, are applied to the ice-sheet model. We implement a simple parameterization for increased flow of outlet glaciers, which decreases the bias of the modeled present-day surface height. It also allows for taking into account the observed recent increase in dynamical discharge, and it can be used for future projections associated with outlet-glacier speed up. Greenland contributes 0-17 cm to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. This range includes the uncertainties in climate-model projections, the uncertainty associated with scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as the uncertainties in future outlet-glacier discharge. In addition, the range takes into account the uncertainty of the ice-sheet model and its boundary fields. (orig.)

  19. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  20. Global climate change will affect air, water in California

    WEARE, BRYAN C.

    2002-01-01

    As we enter the 21st century, it is possible to reach beyond the headlines to describe what is now known about climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change evaluated the scientific aspects of global climate change; the current consensus is described in a recent series of reports. Since the 19th century, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol dust have increased significantly. While there is scientific agreement that warming is...